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000
FXUS63 KTOP 012324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

By this afternoon the mid-level trough axis stretched across the
Northern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a closed-off low
situated right off the California coastline. At the surface, high
pressure was advancing into the area from the north, gradually
advecting drier air into northern Kansas. Weak forcing remained in
place across east central Kansas and further south during much of
today, resulting in lingering light precipitation through
mid-afternoon in the form of a snow/sleet/freezing drizzle mix.
With the dry air advection from the light northwesterly winds,
overcast skies began to scatter out across northern Kansas this
afternoon, resulting in temperatures reaching into the low/mid 30s.

The center of the surface high pressure will track over the region
tonight into Monday morning, resulting in light winds overnight.
Soundings show some lingering mid-level clouds but still expect low
temperatures to drop to around 20 degrees tonight. The combination
of light winds and some fresh snow may support the development of
some patchy fog overnight and toward sunrise Monday, with the better
chances possibly over portions of east central Kansas. While the HRRR
is trying to hint at this potential some, soundings seem to show
minimal low-level saturation. Confidence is too low to warrant a
mention in the forecast at this time, but it is something worth
monitoring this evening.

Monday should remain dry as models have kept the deepening mid-level
trough axis west of the Rockies with any embedded shortwaves staying
west of the forecast area. However, cannot completely rule out the
potential for some patchy drizzle as model soundings show some
increasing saturation in the low-levels by Monday afternoon ahead of
the next approaching storm system, along with some isentropic lift
present. Confidence in the amount of saturation during the afternoon hours
is too low to mention in the forecast at this time, but it`s another
part of the forecast worth keeping an eye on. As winds shift and
increase out of the southeast and the cloud cover tries to scatter
out some, have increased temperatures a bit with highs in the upper
30s. However, if we end up seeing more breaks in the cloud cover, then
readings may end up reaching into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A cutoff upper low off the coast of southern CA will phase with a
northern stream upper trough digging southeast out of western Canada on
Monday. The resulting positive tilt H5 trough will move east into the
high plains by Tuesday evening.

A lee surface low will deepen across western KS Tuesday night.
Southwesterly 850mb and surface winds will bring warmer temperature
and richer moisture northeastward across the CWA Tuesday night. Both
the NAM and ECMWF develop the stronger isentropic lift south and
west of the CWA Tuesday evening...thus the CWA may remain dry
Tuesday evening when surface temperatures may be near or slightly
below freezing across much of the CWA. Temperatures will gradually
warm into the mid 30s by midnight as the richer moisture begins to
advect northeast towards the CWA. My thoughts are that any drizzle
or light rain will not begin until after midnight early Wednesday
morning. However, if the quicker GFS verifies, then stronger
isentropic lift will develop across eastern KS during the early
evening hours causing patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
to develop, especially north of I-70. The instability looks too weak
for any elevated thunderstorms across the southeast counties of the
CWA, as the deeper moisture will remain southeast of the CWA.

Tuesday, As the positive tilt H5 trough approaches the high plains,
the 850mb winds will begin to veer more to the west through the
morning and afternoon hours. The deeper moisture will shift well
east of the CWA across eastern MO through the day. The surface low
across western KS during the morning will move northeast into
western IA. The CWA will be dry slotted with any light rain in the
early morning hours moving rapidly off to the northeast. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tuesday morning
will cause a cold front to push southeast across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Tuesday high temperatures will occur in the late
morning and early afternoon hours with temperatures falling through
the day. Winds behind the front will switch to the northwest at 15
to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Tuesday night there may be enough ascent ahead of the positive tilt
trough for some light snow showers or flurries. There could be a
dusting of snow. The southern end of the H5 trough across TX will
amplify and may cause significant snow and ice accumulations for
parts of OK, AR and southern MO on Wednesday. A cold surface high
will build southward across the CWA Wednesday Afternoon and
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the mid to upper
20s.

The upper level flow will become more zonal through the remainder of
the extended forecast. Expect dry conditions with highs warming into
the 40s on Friday and 50s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Added some early morning BR for light winds and melting snow,
think wont go much lower thanks to incoming drier air at the
surface and increasing clouds from the southwest. Winds become
southeasterly through the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 012324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

By this afternoon the mid-level trough axis stretched across the
Northern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a closed-off low
situated right off the California coastline. At the surface, high
pressure was advancing into the area from the north, gradually
advecting drier air into northern Kansas. Weak forcing remained in
place across east central Kansas and further south during much of
today, resulting in lingering light precipitation through
mid-afternoon in the form of a snow/sleet/freezing drizzle mix.
With the dry air advection from the light northwesterly winds,
overcast skies began to scatter out across northern Kansas this
afternoon, resulting in temperatures reaching into the low/mid 30s.

The center of the surface high pressure will track over the region
tonight into Monday morning, resulting in light winds overnight.
Soundings show some lingering mid-level clouds but still expect low
temperatures to drop to around 20 degrees tonight. The combination
of light winds and some fresh snow may support the development of
some patchy fog overnight and toward sunrise Monday, with the better
chances possibly over portions of east central Kansas. While the HRRR
is trying to hint at this potential some, soundings seem to show
minimal low-level saturation. Confidence is too low to warrant a
mention in the forecast at this time, but it is something worth
monitoring this evening.

Monday should remain dry as models have kept the deepening mid-level
trough axis west of the Rockies with any embedded shortwaves staying
west of the forecast area. However, cannot completely rule out the
potential for some patchy drizzle as model soundings show some
increasing saturation in the low-levels by Monday afternoon ahead of
the next approaching storm system, along with some isentropic lift
present. Confidence in the amount of saturation during the afternoon hours
is too low to mention in the forecast at this time, but it`s another
part of the forecast worth keeping an eye on. As winds shift and
increase out of the southeast and the cloud cover tries to scatter
out some, have increased temperatures a bit with highs in the upper
30s. However, if we end up seeing more breaks in the cloud cover, then
readings may end up reaching into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A cutoff upper low off the coast of southern CA will phase with a
northern stream upper trough digging southeast out of western Canada on
Monday. The resulting positive tilt H5 trough will move east into the
high plains by Tuesday evening.

A lee surface low will deepen across western KS Tuesday night.
Southwesterly 850mb and surface winds will bring warmer temperature
and richer moisture northeastward across the CWA Tuesday night. Both
the NAM and ECMWF develop the stronger isentropic lift south and
west of the CWA Tuesday evening...thus the CWA may remain dry
Tuesday evening when surface temperatures may be near or slightly
below freezing across much of the CWA. Temperatures will gradually
warm into the mid 30s by midnight as the richer moisture begins to
advect northeast towards the CWA. My thoughts are that any drizzle
or light rain will not begin until after midnight early Wednesday
morning. However, if the quicker GFS verifies, then stronger
isentropic lift will develop across eastern KS during the early
evening hours causing patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
to develop, especially north of I-70. The instability looks too weak
for any elevated thunderstorms across the southeast counties of the
CWA, as the deeper moisture will remain southeast of the CWA.

Tuesday, As the positive tilt H5 trough approaches the high plains,
the 850mb winds will begin to veer more to the west through the
morning and afternoon hours. The deeper moisture will shift well
east of the CWA across eastern MO through the day. The surface low
across western KS during the morning will move northeast into
western IA. The CWA will be dry slotted with any light rain in the
early morning hours moving rapidly off to the northeast. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tuesday morning
will cause a cold front to push southeast across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Tuesday high temperatures will occur in the late
morning and early afternoon hours with temperatures falling through
the day. Winds behind the front will switch to the northwest at 15
to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Tuesday night there may be enough ascent ahead of the positive tilt
trough for some light snow showers or flurries. There could be a
dusting of snow. The southern end of the H5 trough across TX will
amplify and may cause significant snow and ice accumulations for
parts of OK, AR and southern MO on Wednesday. A cold surface high
will build southward across the CWA Wednesday Afternoon and
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the mid to upper
20s.

The upper level flow will become more zonal through the remainder of
the extended forecast. Expect dry conditions with highs warming into
the 40s on Friday and 50s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Added some early morning BR for light winds and melting snow,
think wont go much lower thanks to incoming drier air at the
surface and increasing clouds from the southwest. Winds become
southeasterly through the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 012324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

By this afternoon the mid-level trough axis stretched across the
Northern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a closed-off low
situated right off the California coastline. At the surface, high
pressure was advancing into the area from the north, gradually
advecting drier air into northern Kansas. Weak forcing remained in
place across east central Kansas and further south during much of
today, resulting in lingering light precipitation through
mid-afternoon in the form of a snow/sleet/freezing drizzle mix.
With the dry air advection from the light northwesterly winds,
overcast skies began to scatter out across northern Kansas this
afternoon, resulting in temperatures reaching into the low/mid 30s.

The center of the surface high pressure will track over the region
tonight into Monday morning, resulting in light winds overnight.
Soundings show some lingering mid-level clouds but still expect low
temperatures to drop to around 20 degrees tonight. The combination
of light winds and some fresh snow may support the development of
some patchy fog overnight and toward sunrise Monday, with the better
chances possibly over portions of east central Kansas. While the HRRR
is trying to hint at this potential some, soundings seem to show
minimal low-level saturation. Confidence is too low to warrant a
mention in the forecast at this time, but it is something worth
monitoring this evening.

Monday should remain dry as models have kept the deepening mid-level
trough axis west of the Rockies with any embedded shortwaves staying
west of the forecast area. However, cannot completely rule out the
potential for some patchy drizzle as model soundings show some
increasing saturation in the low-levels by Monday afternoon ahead of
the next approaching storm system, along with some isentropic lift
present. Confidence in the amount of saturation during the afternoon hours
is too low to mention in the forecast at this time, but it`s another
part of the forecast worth keeping an eye on. As winds shift and
increase out of the southeast and the cloud cover tries to scatter
out some, have increased temperatures a bit with highs in the upper
30s. However, if we end up seeing more breaks in the cloud cover, then
readings may end up reaching into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A cutoff upper low off the coast of southern CA will phase with a
northern stream upper trough digging southeast out of western Canada on
Monday. The resulting positive tilt H5 trough will move east into the
high plains by Tuesday evening.

A lee surface low will deepen across western KS Tuesday night.
Southwesterly 850mb and surface winds will bring warmer temperature
and richer moisture northeastward across the CWA Tuesday night. Both
the NAM and ECMWF develop the stronger isentropic lift south and
west of the CWA Tuesday evening...thus the CWA may remain dry
Tuesday evening when surface temperatures may be near or slightly
below freezing across much of the CWA. Temperatures will gradually
warm into the mid 30s by midnight as the richer moisture begins to
advect northeast towards the CWA. My thoughts are that any drizzle
or light rain will not begin until after midnight early Wednesday
morning. However, if the quicker GFS verifies, then stronger
isentropic lift will develop across eastern KS during the early
evening hours causing patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
to develop, especially north of I-70. The instability looks too weak
for any elevated thunderstorms across the southeast counties of the
CWA, as the deeper moisture will remain southeast of the CWA.

Tuesday, As the positive tilt H5 trough approaches the high plains,
the 850mb winds will begin to veer more to the west through the
morning and afternoon hours. The deeper moisture will shift well
east of the CWA across eastern MO through the day. The surface low
across western KS during the morning will move northeast into
western IA. The CWA will be dry slotted with any light rain in the
early morning hours moving rapidly off to the northeast. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tuesday morning
will cause a cold front to push southeast across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Tuesday high temperatures will occur in the late
morning and early afternoon hours with temperatures falling through
the day. Winds behind the front will switch to the northwest at 15
to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Tuesday night there may be enough ascent ahead of the positive tilt
trough for some light snow showers or flurries. There could be a
dusting of snow. The southern end of the H5 trough across TX will
amplify and may cause significant snow and ice accumulations for
parts of OK, AR and southern MO on Wednesday. A cold surface high
will build southward across the CWA Wednesday Afternoon and
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the mid to upper
20s.

The upper level flow will become more zonal through the remainder of
the extended forecast. Expect dry conditions with highs warming into
the 40s on Friday and 50s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Added some early morning BR for light winds and melting snow,
think wont go much lower thanks to incoming drier air at the
surface and increasing clouds from the southwest. Winds become
southeasterly through the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 012324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

By this afternoon the mid-level trough axis stretched across the
Northern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a closed-off low
situated right off the California coastline. At the surface, high
pressure was advancing into the area from the north, gradually
advecting drier air into northern Kansas. Weak forcing remained in
place across east central Kansas and further south during much of
today, resulting in lingering light precipitation through
mid-afternoon in the form of a snow/sleet/freezing drizzle mix.
With the dry air advection from the light northwesterly winds,
overcast skies began to scatter out across northern Kansas this
afternoon, resulting in temperatures reaching into the low/mid 30s.

The center of the surface high pressure will track over the region
tonight into Monday morning, resulting in light winds overnight.
Soundings show some lingering mid-level clouds but still expect low
temperatures to drop to around 20 degrees tonight. The combination
of light winds and some fresh snow may support the development of
some patchy fog overnight and toward sunrise Monday, with the better
chances possibly over portions of east central Kansas. While the HRRR
is trying to hint at this potential some, soundings seem to show
minimal low-level saturation. Confidence is too low to warrant a
mention in the forecast at this time, but it is something worth
monitoring this evening.

Monday should remain dry as models have kept the deepening mid-level
trough axis west of the Rockies with any embedded shortwaves staying
west of the forecast area. However, cannot completely rule out the
potential for some patchy drizzle as model soundings show some
increasing saturation in the low-levels by Monday afternoon ahead of
the next approaching storm system, along with some isentropic lift
present. Confidence in the amount of saturation during the afternoon hours
is too low to mention in the forecast at this time, but it`s another
part of the forecast worth keeping an eye on. As winds shift and
increase out of the southeast and the cloud cover tries to scatter
out some, have increased temperatures a bit with highs in the upper
30s. However, if we end up seeing more breaks in the cloud cover, then
readings may end up reaching into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A cutoff upper low off the coast of southern CA will phase with a
northern stream upper trough digging southeast out of western Canada on
Monday. The resulting positive tilt H5 trough will move east into the
high plains by Tuesday evening.

A lee surface low will deepen across western KS Tuesday night.
Southwesterly 850mb and surface winds will bring warmer temperature
and richer moisture northeastward across the CWA Tuesday night. Both
the NAM and ECMWF develop the stronger isentropic lift south and
west of the CWA Tuesday evening...thus the CWA may remain dry
Tuesday evening when surface temperatures may be near or slightly
below freezing across much of the CWA. Temperatures will gradually
warm into the mid 30s by midnight as the richer moisture begins to
advect northeast towards the CWA. My thoughts are that any drizzle
or light rain will not begin until after midnight early Wednesday
morning. However, if the quicker GFS verifies, then stronger
isentropic lift will develop across eastern KS during the early
evening hours causing patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
to develop, especially north of I-70. The instability looks too weak
for any elevated thunderstorms across the southeast counties of the
CWA, as the deeper moisture will remain southeast of the CWA.

Tuesday, As the positive tilt H5 trough approaches the high plains,
the 850mb winds will begin to veer more to the west through the
morning and afternoon hours. The deeper moisture will shift well
east of the CWA across eastern MO through the day. The surface low
across western KS during the morning will move northeast into
western IA. The CWA will be dry slotted with any light rain in the
early morning hours moving rapidly off to the northeast. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tuesday morning
will cause a cold front to push southeast across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Tuesday high temperatures will occur in the late
morning and early afternoon hours with temperatures falling through
the day. Winds behind the front will switch to the northwest at 15
to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Tuesday night there may be enough ascent ahead of the positive tilt
trough for some light snow showers or flurries. There could be a
dusting of snow. The southern end of the H5 trough across TX will
amplify and may cause significant snow and ice accumulations for
parts of OK, AR and southern MO on Wednesday. A cold surface high
will build southward across the CWA Wednesday Afternoon and
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the mid to upper
20s.

The upper level flow will become more zonal through the remainder of
the extended forecast. Expect dry conditions with highs warming into
the 40s on Friday and 50s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Added some early morning BR for light winds and melting snow,
think wont go much lower thanks to incoming drier air at the
surface and increasing clouds from the southwest. Winds become
southeasterly through the day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...67





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 012303
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
503 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOUND ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AS A BIG UPPER LOW REMAINED ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. REMNANT COLD CANADIAN AIR REMAINED LOCKED IN PLACE WITH
ALMOST NO ADVECTION OCCURRING THANKS TO VERY LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 850MB, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOME LOWER RH AIR TOWARD SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AIDING IN THE
EVENTUAL SCOURING OUT OF STRATUS. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH,
AS WE REMAIN IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN TO THE LOWER 20S BY 09-12Z MONDAY MORNING,
AND WITH THE VERY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME
PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES (MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER). DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WE WILL SEE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
MOVE SLOWLY EAST, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEE TROUGH, BUT RIGHT UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANGE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS BY MIDDAY,
BUT THE WINDS WILL STILL BE COLD, WITH THE TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM
AROUND THE REMNANT SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 37F
RANGE AS A GENERAL RULE (COOLEST IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS).
ELKHART SHOULD TOUCH LOWER 40S BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO
THE LEE TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWER TROPOSPHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN KANSAS
BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15
TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  19  36  34  43 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  22  37  33  39 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  21  41  36  43 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  22  40  35  45 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  19  34  33  38 /   0  10  10  10
P28  19  35  33  47 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KTOP 012144
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

By this afternoon the mid-level trough axis stretched across the
Northern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a closed-off low
situated right off the California coastline. At the surface, high
pressure was advancing into the area from the north, gradually
advecting drier air into northern Kansas. Weak forcing remained in
place across east central Kansas and further south during much of
today, resulting in lingering light precipitation through
mid-afternoon in the form of a snow/sleet/freezing drizzle mix.
With the dry air advection from the light northwesterly winds,
overcast skies began to scatter out across northern Kansas this
afternoon, resulting in temperatures reaching into the low/mid 30s.

The center of the surface high pressure will track over the region
tonight into Monday morning, resulting in light winds overnight.
Soundings show some lingering mid-level clouds but still expect low
temperatures to drop to around 20 degrees tonight. The combination
of light winds and some fresh snow may support the development of
some patchy fog overnight and toward sunrise Monday, with the better
chances possibly over portions of east central Kansas. While the HRRR
is trying to hint at this potential some, soundings seem to show
minimal low-level saturation. Confidence is too low to warrant a
mention in the forecast at this time, but it is something worth
monitoring this evening.

Monday should remain dry as models have kept the deepening mid-level
trough axis west of the Rockies with any embedded shortwaves staying
west of the forecast area. However, cannot completely rule out the
potential for some patchy drizzle as model soundings show some
increasing saturation in the low-levels by Monday afternoon ahead of
the next approaching storm system, along with some isentropic lift
present. Confidence in the amount of saturation during the afternoon hours
is too low to mention in the forecast at this time, but it`s another
part of the forecast worth keeping an eye on. As winds shift and
increase out of the southeast and the cloud cover tries to scatter
out some, have increased temperatures a bit with highs in the upper
30s. However, if we end up seeing more breaks in the cloud cover, then
readings may end up reaching into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A cutoff upper low off the coast of southern CA will phase with a
northern stream upper trough digging southeast out of western Canada on
Monday. The resulting positive tilt H5 trough will move east into the
high plains by Tuesday evening.

A lee surface low will deepen across western KS Tuesday night.
Southwesterly 850mb and surface winds will bring warmer temperature
and richer moisture northeastward across the CWA Tuesday night. Both
the NAM and ECMWF develop the stronger isentropic lift south and
west of the CWA Tuesday evening...thus the CWA may remain dry
Tuesday evening when surface temperatures may be near or slightly
below freezing across much of the CWA. Temperatures will gradually
warm into the mid 30s by midnight as the richer moisture begins to
advect northeast towards the CWA. My thoughts are that any drizzle
or light rain will not begin until after midnight early Wednesday
morning. However, if the quicker GFS verifies, then stronger
isentropic lift will develop across eastern KS during the early
evening hours causing patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
to develop, especially north of I-70. The instability looks too weak
for any elevated thunderstorms across the southeast counties of the
CWA, as the deeper moisture will remain southeast of the CWA.

Tuesday, As the positive tilt H5 trough approaches the high plains,
the 850mb winds will begin to veer more to the west through the
morning and afternoon hours. The deeper moisture will shift well
east of the CWA across eastern MO through the day. The surface low
across western KS during the morning will move northeast into
western IA. The CWA will be dry slotted with any light rain in the
early morning hours moving rapidly off to the northeast. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tuesday morning
will cause a cold front to push southeast across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Tuesday high temperatures will occur in the late
morning and early afternoon hours with temperatures falling through
the day. Winds behind the front will switch to the northwest at 15
to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Tuesday night there may be enough ascent ahead of the positive tilt
trough for some light snow showers or flurries. There could be a
dusting of snow. The southern end of the H5 trough across TX will
amplify and may cause significant snow and ice accumulations for
parts of OK, AR and southern MO on Wednesday. A cold surface high
will build southward across the CWA Wednesday Afternoon and
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the mid to upper
20s.

The upper level flow will become more zonal through the remainder of
the extended forecast. Expect dry conditions with highs warming into
the 40s on Friday and 50s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 18z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist
through the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As
surface high pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday,
northwesterly winds will veer toward the northeast and eventually
to the southeast by the end of the TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 012144
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

By this afternoon the mid-level trough axis stretched across the
Northern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a closed-off low
situated right off the California coastline. At the surface, high
pressure was advancing into the area from the north, gradually
advecting drier air into northern Kansas. Weak forcing remained in
place across east central Kansas and further south during much of
today, resulting in lingering light precipitation through
mid-afternoon in the form of a snow/sleet/freezing drizzle mix.
With the dry air advection from the light northwesterly winds,
overcast skies began to scatter out across northern Kansas this
afternoon, resulting in temperatures reaching into the low/mid 30s.

The center of the surface high pressure will track over the region
tonight into Monday morning, resulting in light winds overnight.
Soundings show some lingering mid-level clouds but still expect low
temperatures to drop to around 20 degrees tonight. The combination
of light winds and some fresh snow may support the development of
some patchy fog overnight and toward sunrise Monday, with the better
chances possibly over portions of east central Kansas. While the HRRR
is trying to hint at this potential some, soundings seem to show
minimal low-level saturation. Confidence is too low to warrant a
mention in the forecast at this time, but it is something worth
monitoring this evening.

Monday should remain dry as models have kept the deepening mid-level
trough axis west of the Rockies with any embedded shortwaves staying
west of the forecast area. However, cannot completely rule out the
potential for some patchy drizzle as model soundings show some
increasing saturation in the low-levels by Monday afternoon ahead of
the next approaching storm system, along with some isentropic lift
present. Confidence in the amount of saturation during the afternoon hours
is too low to mention in the forecast at this time, but it`s another
part of the forecast worth keeping an eye on. As winds shift and
increase out of the southeast and the cloud cover tries to scatter
out some, have increased temperatures a bit with highs in the upper
30s. However, if we end up seeing more breaks in the cloud cover, then
readings may end up reaching into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A cutoff upper low off the coast of southern CA will phase with a
northern stream upper trough digging southeast out of western Canada on
Monday. The resulting positive tilt H5 trough will move east into the
high plains by Tuesday evening.

A lee surface low will deepen across western KS Tuesday night.
Southwesterly 850mb and surface winds will bring warmer temperature
and richer moisture northeastward across the CWA Tuesday night. Both
the NAM and ECMWF develop the stronger isentropic lift south and
west of the CWA Tuesday evening...thus the CWA may remain dry
Tuesday evening when surface temperatures may be near or slightly
below freezing across much of the CWA. Temperatures will gradually
warm into the mid 30s by midnight as the richer moisture begins to
advect northeast towards the CWA. My thoughts are that any drizzle
or light rain will not begin until after midnight early Wednesday
morning. However, if the quicker GFS verifies, then stronger
isentropic lift will develop across eastern KS during the early
evening hours causing patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
to develop, especially north of I-70. The instability looks too weak
for any elevated thunderstorms across the southeast counties of the
CWA, as the deeper moisture will remain southeast of the CWA.

Tuesday, As the positive tilt H5 trough approaches the high plains,
the 850mb winds will begin to veer more to the west through the
morning and afternoon hours. The deeper moisture will shift well
east of the CWA across eastern MO through the day. The surface low
across western KS during the morning will move northeast into
western IA. The CWA will be dry slotted with any light rain in the
early morning hours moving rapidly off to the northeast. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tuesday morning
will cause a cold front to push southeast across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Tuesday high temperatures will occur in the late
morning and early afternoon hours with temperatures falling through
the day. Winds behind the front will switch to the northwest at 15
to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Tuesday night there may be enough ascent ahead of the positive tilt
trough for some light snow showers or flurries. There could be a
dusting of snow. The southern end of the H5 trough across TX will
amplify and may cause significant snow and ice accumulations for
parts of OK, AR and southern MO on Wednesday. A cold surface high
will build southward across the CWA Wednesday Afternoon and
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the mid to upper
20s.

The upper level flow will become more zonal through the remainder of
the extended forecast. Expect dry conditions with highs warming into
the 40s on Friday and 50s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 18z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist
through the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As
surface high pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday,
northwesterly winds will veer toward the northeast and eventually
to the southeast by the end of the TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 012144
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

By this afternoon the mid-level trough axis stretched across the
Northern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a closed-off low
situated right off the California coastline. At the surface, high
pressure was advancing into the area from the north, gradually
advecting drier air into northern Kansas. Weak forcing remained in
place across east central Kansas and further south during much of
today, resulting in lingering light precipitation through
mid-afternoon in the form of a snow/sleet/freezing drizzle mix.
With the dry air advection from the light northwesterly winds,
overcast skies began to scatter out across northern Kansas this
afternoon, resulting in temperatures reaching into the low/mid 30s.

The center of the surface high pressure will track over the region
tonight into Monday morning, resulting in light winds overnight.
Soundings show some lingering mid-level clouds but still expect low
temperatures to drop to around 20 degrees tonight. The combination
of light winds and some fresh snow may support the development of
some patchy fog overnight and toward sunrise Monday, with the better
chances possibly over portions of east central Kansas. While the HRRR
is trying to hint at this potential some, soundings seem to show
minimal low-level saturation. Confidence is too low to warrant a
mention in the forecast at this time, but it is something worth
monitoring this evening.

Monday should remain dry as models have kept the deepening mid-level
trough axis west of the Rockies with any embedded shortwaves staying
west of the forecast area. However, cannot completely rule out the
potential for some patchy drizzle as model soundings show some
increasing saturation in the low-levels by Monday afternoon ahead of
the next approaching storm system, along with some isentropic lift
present. Confidence in the amount of saturation during the afternoon hours
is too low to mention in the forecast at this time, but it`s another
part of the forecast worth keeping an eye on. As winds shift and
increase out of the southeast and the cloud cover tries to scatter
out some, have increased temperatures a bit with highs in the upper
30s. However, if we end up seeing more breaks in the cloud cover, then
readings may end up reaching into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A cutoff upper low off the coast of southern CA will phase with a
northern stream upper trough digging southeast out of western Canada on
Monday. The resulting positive tilt H5 trough will move east into the
high plains by Tuesday evening.

A lee surface low will deepen across western KS Tuesday night.
Southwesterly 850mb and surface winds will bring warmer temperature
and richer moisture northeastward across the CWA Tuesday night. Both
the NAM and ECMWF develop the stronger isentropic lift south and
west of the CWA Tuesday evening...thus the CWA may remain dry
Tuesday evening when surface temperatures may be near or slightly
below freezing across much of the CWA. Temperatures will gradually
warm into the mid 30s by midnight as the richer moisture begins to
advect northeast towards the CWA. My thoughts are that any drizzle
or light rain will not begin until after midnight early Wednesday
morning. However, if the quicker GFS verifies, then stronger
isentropic lift will develop across eastern KS during the early
evening hours causing patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
to develop, especially north of I-70. The instability looks too weak
for any elevated thunderstorms across the southeast counties of the
CWA, as the deeper moisture will remain southeast of the CWA.

Tuesday, As the positive tilt H5 trough approaches the high plains,
the 850mb winds will begin to veer more to the west through the
morning and afternoon hours. The deeper moisture will shift well
east of the CWA across eastern MO through the day. The surface low
across western KS during the morning will move northeast into
western IA. The CWA will be dry slotted with any light rain in the
early morning hours moving rapidly off to the northeast. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tuesday morning
will cause a cold front to push southeast across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Tuesday high temperatures will occur in the late
morning and early afternoon hours with temperatures falling through
the day. Winds behind the front will switch to the northwest at 15
to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Tuesday night there may be enough ascent ahead of the positive tilt
trough for some light snow showers or flurries. There could be a
dusting of snow. The southern end of the H5 trough across TX will
amplify and may cause significant snow and ice accumulations for
parts of OK, AR and southern MO on Wednesday. A cold surface high
will build southward across the CWA Wednesday Afternoon and
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the mid to upper
20s.

The upper level flow will become more zonal through the remainder of
the extended forecast. Expect dry conditions with highs warming into
the 40s on Friday and 50s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 18z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist
through the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As
surface high pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday,
northwesterly winds will veer toward the northeast and eventually
to the southeast by the end of the TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 012144
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

By this afternoon the mid-level trough axis stretched across the
Northern Plains with water vapor imagery showing a closed-off low
situated right off the California coastline. At the surface, high
pressure was advancing into the area from the north, gradually
advecting drier air into northern Kansas. Weak forcing remained in
place across east central Kansas and further south during much of
today, resulting in lingering light precipitation through
mid-afternoon in the form of a snow/sleet/freezing drizzle mix.
With the dry air advection from the light northwesterly winds,
overcast skies began to scatter out across northern Kansas this
afternoon, resulting in temperatures reaching into the low/mid 30s.

The center of the surface high pressure will track over the region
tonight into Monday morning, resulting in light winds overnight.
Soundings show some lingering mid-level clouds but still expect low
temperatures to drop to around 20 degrees tonight. The combination
of light winds and some fresh snow may support the development of
some patchy fog overnight and toward sunrise Monday, with the better
chances possibly over portions of east central Kansas. While the HRRR
is trying to hint at this potential some, soundings seem to show
minimal low-level saturation. Confidence is too low to warrant a
mention in the forecast at this time, but it is something worth
monitoring this evening.

Monday should remain dry as models have kept the deepening mid-level
trough axis west of the Rockies with any embedded shortwaves staying
west of the forecast area. However, cannot completely rule out the
potential for some patchy drizzle as model soundings show some
increasing saturation in the low-levels by Monday afternoon ahead of
the next approaching storm system, along with some isentropic lift
present. Confidence in the amount of saturation during the afternoon hours
is too low to mention in the forecast at this time, but it`s another
part of the forecast worth keeping an eye on. As winds shift and
increase out of the southeast and the cloud cover tries to scatter
out some, have increased temperatures a bit with highs in the upper
30s. However, if we end up seeing more breaks in the cloud cover, then
readings may end up reaching into the low 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A cutoff upper low off the coast of southern CA will phase with a
northern stream upper trough digging southeast out of western Canada on
Monday. The resulting positive tilt H5 trough will move east into the
high plains by Tuesday evening.

A lee surface low will deepen across western KS Tuesday night.
Southwesterly 850mb and surface winds will bring warmer temperature
and richer moisture northeastward across the CWA Tuesday night. Both
the NAM and ECMWF develop the stronger isentropic lift south and
west of the CWA Tuesday evening...thus the CWA may remain dry
Tuesday evening when surface temperatures may be near or slightly
below freezing across much of the CWA. Temperatures will gradually
warm into the mid 30s by midnight as the richer moisture begins to
advect northeast towards the CWA. My thoughts are that any drizzle
or light rain will not begin until after midnight early Wednesday
morning. However, if the quicker GFS verifies, then stronger
isentropic lift will develop across eastern KS during the early
evening hours causing patchy freezing drizzle or light freezing rain
to develop, especially north of I-70. The instability looks too weak
for any elevated thunderstorms across the southeast counties of the
CWA, as the deeper moisture will remain southeast of the CWA.

Tuesday, As the positive tilt H5 trough approaches the high plains,
the 850mb winds will begin to veer more to the west through the
morning and afternoon hours. The deeper moisture will shift well
east of the CWA across eastern MO through the day. The surface low
across western KS during the morning will move northeast into
western IA. The CWA will be dry slotted with any light rain in the
early morning hours moving rapidly off to the northeast. Strong
low-level CAA across the northern and central plains Tuesday morning
will cause a cold front to push southeast across the CWA during the
afternoon hours. Tuesday high temperatures will occur in the late
morning and early afternoon hours with temperatures falling through
the day. Winds behind the front will switch to the northwest at 15
to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH.

Tuesday night there may be enough ascent ahead of the positive tilt
trough for some light snow showers or flurries. There could be a
dusting of snow. The southern end of the H5 trough across TX will
amplify and may cause significant snow and ice accumulations for
parts of OK, AR and southern MO on Wednesday. A cold surface high
will build southward across the CWA Wednesday Afternoon and
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the mid to upper
20s.

The upper level flow will become more zonal through the remainder of
the extended forecast. Expect dry conditions with highs warming into
the 40s on Friday and 50s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 18z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist
through the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As
surface high pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday,
northwesterly winds will veer toward the northeast and eventually
to the southeast by the end of the TAF period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KDDC 012141
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOUND ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AS A BIG UPPER LOW REMAINED ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. REMNANT COLD CANADIAN AIR REMAINED LOCKED IN PLACE WITH
ALMOST NO ADVECTION OCCURRING THANKS TO VERY LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 850MB, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOME LOWER RH AIR TOWARD SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AIDING IN THE
EVENTUAL SCOURING OUT OF STRATUS. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH,
AS WE REMAIN IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN TO THE LOWER 20S BY 09-12Z MONDAY MORNING,
AND WITH THE VERY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME
PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES (MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER). DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WE WILL SEE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
MOVE SLOWLY EAST, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEE TROUGH, BUT RIGHT UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANGE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS BY MIDDAY,
BUT THE WINDS WILL STILL BE COLD, WITH THE TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM
AROUND THE REMNANT SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 37F
RANGE AS A GENERAL RULE (COOLEST IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS).
ELKHART SHOULD TOUCH LOWER 40S BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO
THE LEE TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWER TROPOSPHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  19  36  34  43 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  22  37  33  39 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  21  41  36  43 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  22  40  35  45 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  19  34  33  38 /   0  10  10  10
P28  19  35  33  47 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 012141
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
341 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOUND ITSELF DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
AS A BIG UPPER LOW REMAINED ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. REMNANT COLD CANADIAN AIR REMAINED LOCKED IN PLACE WITH
ALMOST NO ADVECTION OCCURRING THANKS TO VERY LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS
SOME LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 850MB, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOME LOWER RH AIR TOWARD SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AIDING IN THE
EVENTUAL SCOURING OUT OF STRATUS. WE WILL STILL SEE SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AROUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH,
AS WE REMAIN IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN THE MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN TO THE LOWER 20S BY 09-12Z MONDAY MORNING,
AND WITH THE VERY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO WE HAVE INCLUDED SOME
PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES (MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER). DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY, WE WILL SEE THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW
MOVE SLOWLY EAST, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEE TROUGH, BUT RIGHT UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANGE IN
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS BY MIDDAY,
BUT THE WINDS WILL STILL BE COLD, WITH THE TRAJECTORIES COMING FROM
AROUND THE REMNANT SURFACE HIGH. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 35 TO 37F
RANGE AS A GENERAL RULE (COOLEST IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS).
ELKHART SHOULD TOUCH LOWER 40S BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO
THE LEE TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWER TROPOSPHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  19  36  34  43 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  22  37  33  39 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  21  41  36  43 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  22  40  35  45 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  19  34  33  38 /   0  10  10  10
P28  19  35  33  47 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 012100
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COINCIDENTALLY MATCHES UP WITH
WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURRED A FEW DAYS AGO. COMPARING IT TO CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS IT BE IGNORED.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS AROUND
40KTS POSSIBLE. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WINDS
AND SUPPORTED BY SREF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND PROBABILITIES. MET
GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS A BIT LOWER.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY. ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH WHAT THE NAM MODEL THINKS IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN KIT
CARSON AND ALL OF CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. CO-OP AND COCORAHS
DATA SUGGESTS THESE VALUES ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE. WILL WORK TO IGNORE
NAM/SREF 2M TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. OTHER CONCERN IS HOW FAST THE
WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GFS (AS HAS BEEN THE
CAST THE PAST FEW DAYS) CONTINUES TO BRING IT IN FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF/UKMET. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARENT THE BEST FOR BRINGING THIS AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
SO...WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. COULD SEE MID 40S ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 012100
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COINCIDENTALLY MATCHES UP WITH
WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURRED A FEW DAYS AGO. COMPARING IT TO CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS IT BE IGNORED.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS AROUND
40KTS POSSIBLE. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WINDS
AND SUPPORTED BY SREF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND PROBABILITIES. MET
GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS A BIT LOWER.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY. ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH WHAT THE NAM MODEL THINKS IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN KIT
CARSON AND ALL OF CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. CO-OP AND COCORAHS
DATA SUGGESTS THESE VALUES ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE. WILL WORK TO IGNORE
NAM/SREF 2M TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. OTHER CONCERN IS HOW FAST THE
WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GFS (AS HAS BEEN THE
CAST THE PAST FEW DAYS) CONTINUES TO BRING IT IN FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF/UKMET. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARENT THE BEST FOR BRINGING THIS AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
SO...WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. COULD SEE MID 40S ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 012100
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COINCIDENTALLY MATCHES UP WITH
WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURRED A FEW DAYS AGO. COMPARING IT TO CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS IT BE IGNORED.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS AROUND
40KTS POSSIBLE. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WINDS
AND SUPPORTED BY SREF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND PROBABILITIES. MET
GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS A BIT LOWER.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY. ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH WHAT THE NAM MODEL THINKS IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN KIT
CARSON AND ALL OF CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. CO-OP AND COCORAHS
DATA SUGGESTS THESE VALUES ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE. WILL WORK TO IGNORE
NAM/SREF 2M TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. OTHER CONCERN IS HOW FAST THE
WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GFS (AS HAS BEEN THE
CAST THE PAST FEW DAYS) CONTINUES TO BRING IT IN FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF/UKMET. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARENT THE BEST FOR BRINGING THIS AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
SO...WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. COULD SEE MID 40S ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 012100
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COINCIDENTALLY MATCHES UP WITH
WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURRED A FEW DAYS AGO. COMPARING IT TO CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS IT BE IGNORED.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS AROUND
40KTS POSSIBLE. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WINDS
AND SUPPORTED BY SREF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND PROBABILITIES. MET
GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS A BIT LOWER.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY. ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH WHAT THE NAM MODEL THINKS IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN KIT
CARSON AND ALL OF CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. CO-OP AND COCORAHS
DATA SUGGESTS THESE VALUES ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE. WILL WORK TO IGNORE
NAM/SREF 2M TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. OTHER CONCERN IS HOW FAST THE
WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GFS (AS HAS BEEN THE
CAST THE PAST FEW DAYS) CONTINUES TO BRING IT IN FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF/UKMET. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARENT THE BEST FOR BRINGING THIS AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
SO...WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. COULD SEE MID 40S ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 012044
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SNOWPACKED AREAS IN THE
SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO RENEWED AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...GRADUALLY ABSORBING THE
REMNANT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS)...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HIGHER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. COULD SEE AN EVENING LOW IN THE MID
30S MONDAY EVE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SOME OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT (MOST NOTICEABLE IN CENTRAL KANSAS)
AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR MIDWEEK AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF THAT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE MOIST MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE CONVERGING WINDS ARE PROGGED. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN EVOLUTION DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE OFF OF THE PACIFIC...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY LEE TROUGHING. THE RESULT SHOULD BE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS EXITING TO THE EAST. THE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 18Z AND MAY ONLY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT HAD SNOW...THE RAP/NAM AGAIN
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS...BUT
NOT TAKEN IT DOWN AS LOW AS IT MAY GO. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS AND ADJUST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
THE COLD SNOW WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR IT AT KICT AND KCNU
THOUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SNOWCOVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      20  37  33  47 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          19  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
ELDORADO        20  37  34  50 /  10  20  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   21  38  35  51 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         18  37  34  42 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      19  37  34  43 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          20  37  33  45 /  10  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       19  38  33  47 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     21  39  36  53 /  10  20  40  50
CHANUTE         21  37  35  52 /  10  20  40  40
IOLA            20  37  35  52 /  10  20  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    21  39  35  53 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 012044
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SNOWPACKED AREAS IN THE
SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO RENEWED AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...GRADUALLY ABSORBING THE
REMNANT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS)...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HIGHER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. COULD SEE AN EVENING LOW IN THE MID
30S MONDAY EVE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SOME OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT (MOST NOTICEABLE IN CENTRAL KANSAS)
AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR MIDWEEK AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF THAT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE MOIST MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE CONVERGING WINDS ARE PROGGED. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN EVOLUTION DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE OFF OF THE PACIFIC...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY LEE TROUGHING. THE RESULT SHOULD BE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS EXITING TO THE EAST. THE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 18Z AND MAY ONLY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT HAD SNOW...THE RAP/NAM AGAIN
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS...BUT
NOT TAKEN IT DOWN AS LOW AS IT MAY GO. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS AND ADJUST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
THE COLD SNOW WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR IT AT KICT AND KCNU
THOUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SNOWCOVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      20  37  33  47 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          19  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
ELDORADO        20  37  34  50 /  10  20  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   21  38  35  51 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         18  37  34  42 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      19  37  34  43 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          20  37  33  45 /  10  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       19  38  33  47 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     21  39  36  53 /  10  20  40  50
CHANUTE         21  37  35  52 /  10  20  40  40
IOLA            20  37  35  52 /  10  20  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    21  39  35  53 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 012044
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SNOWPACKED AREAS IN THE
SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO RENEWED AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...GRADUALLY ABSORBING THE
REMNANT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS)...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HIGHER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. COULD SEE AN EVENING LOW IN THE MID
30S MONDAY EVE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SOME OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT (MOST NOTICEABLE IN CENTRAL KANSAS)
AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR MIDWEEK AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF THAT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE MOIST MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE CONVERGING WINDS ARE PROGGED. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN EVOLUTION DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE OFF OF THE PACIFIC...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY LEE TROUGHING. THE RESULT SHOULD BE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS EXITING TO THE EAST. THE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 18Z AND MAY ONLY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT HAD SNOW...THE RAP/NAM AGAIN
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS...BUT
NOT TAKEN IT DOWN AS LOW AS IT MAY GO. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS AND ADJUST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
THE COLD SNOW WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR IT AT KICT AND KCNU
THOUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SNOWCOVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      20  37  33  47 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          19  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
ELDORADO        20  37  34  50 /  10  20  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   21  38  35  51 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         18  37  34  42 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      19  37  34  43 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          20  37  33  45 /  10  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       19  38  33  47 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     21  39  36  53 /  10  20  40  50
CHANUTE         21  37  35  52 /  10  20  40  40
IOLA            20  37  35  52 /  10  20  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    21  39  35  53 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 012043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
243 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  36  34  43 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  18  37  33  39 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  20  41  36  43 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  23  40  35  45 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  17  34  33  38 /  10  20  10  10
P28  20  35  33  47 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 012043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
243 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  36  34  43 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  18  37  33  39 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  20  41  36  43 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  23  40  35  45 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  17  34  33  38 /  10  20  10  10
P28  20  35  33  47 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 012043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
243 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  36  34  43 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  18  37  33  39 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  20  41  36  43 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  23  40  35  45 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  17  34  33  38 /  10  20  10  10
P28  20  35  33  47 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 012043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
243 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS TUESDAY PUSHING A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WITH AN ARCTIC DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING NORTHWEST
KANSAS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
AS OF NOW THIS FEATURE ONLY INCREASES CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. A LARGE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS
AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND IS
THEN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S THURSDAY AND AROUND THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  36  34  43 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  18  37  33  39 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  20  41  36  43 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  23  40  35  45 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  17  34  33  38 /  10  20  10  10
P28  20  35  33  47 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KGLD 012027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 012027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 012027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 012027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
127 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KDDC 011746
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011746
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KICT 011746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH...THE EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST FOR CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS AND HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THAT FOR THE BEST TRENDS.
THINK THAT THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT AROUND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 20Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...CLEARING OUT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL PLAN TO CLEAR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND/OR EXTEND IF NEEDED IF THE
WINTRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONGER THAN 20Z. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EXPECT CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED ICE MENTION WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED...ICING HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE WICHITA FORECAST OFFICE. SLICK ROADWAYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS PERSISTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS EXITING TO THE EAST. THE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 18Z AND MAY ONLY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT HAD SNOW...THE RAP/NAM AGAIN
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS...BUT
NOT TAKEN IT DOWN AS LOW AS IT MAY GO. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS AND ADJUST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
THE COLD SNOW WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR IT AT KICT AND KCNU
THOUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      32  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          30  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        30  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  50  10  20  40
RUSSELL         33  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     33  22  37  36 /  40  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  50  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  40  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 011746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH...THE EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST FOR CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS AND HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THAT FOR THE BEST TRENDS.
THINK THAT THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT AROUND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 20Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...CLEARING OUT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL PLAN TO CLEAR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND/OR EXTEND IF NEEDED IF THE
WINTRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONGER THAN 20Z. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EXPECT CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED ICE MENTION WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED...ICING HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE WICHITA FORECAST OFFICE. SLICK ROADWAYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS PERSISTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS EXITING TO THE EAST. THE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 18Z AND MAY ONLY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT HAD SNOW...THE RAP/NAM AGAIN
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS...BUT
NOT TAKEN IT DOWN AS LOW AS IT MAY GO. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS AND ADJUST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
THE COLD SNOW WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR IT AT KICT AND KCNU
THOUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      32  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          30  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        30  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  50  10  20  40
RUSSELL         33  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     33  22  37  36 /  40  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  50  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  40  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH...THE EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST FOR CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS AND HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THAT FOR THE BEST TRENDS.
THINK THAT THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT AROUND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 20Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...CLEARING OUT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL PLAN TO CLEAR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND/OR EXTEND IF NEEDED IF THE
WINTRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONGER THAN 20Z. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EXPECT CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED ICE MENTION WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED...ICING HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE WICHITA FORECAST OFFICE. SLICK ROADWAYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS PERSISTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS EXITING TO THE EAST. THE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 18Z AND MAY ONLY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT HAD SNOW...THE RAP/NAM AGAIN
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS...BUT
NOT TAKEN IT DOWN AS LOW AS IT MAY GO. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS AND ADJUST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
THE COLD SNOW WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR IT AT KICT AND KCNU
THOUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      32  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          30  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        30  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  50  10  20  40
RUSSELL         33  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     33  22  37  36 /  40  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  50  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  40  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 011746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH...THE EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST FOR CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS AND HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THAT FOR THE BEST TRENDS.
THINK THAT THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT AROUND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 20Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...CLEARING OUT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL PLAN TO CLEAR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND/OR EXTEND IF NEEDED IF THE
WINTRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONGER THAN 20Z. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EXPECT CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED ICE MENTION WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED...ICING HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE WICHITA FORECAST OFFICE. SLICK ROADWAYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS PERSISTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS EXITING TO THE EAST. THE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 18Z AND MAY ONLY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT HAD SNOW...THE RAP/NAM AGAIN
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS...BUT
NOT TAKEN IT DOWN AS LOW AS IT MAY GO. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS AND ADJUST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
THE COLD SNOW WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR IT AT KICT AND KCNU
THOUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      32  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          30  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        30  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  50  10  20  40
RUSSELL         33  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     33  22  37  36 /  40  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  50  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  40  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011746
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AROUND MIDDAY HAVE SLOWLY INCREASE TO THE MVFR
CATEGORY, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING SOUTH IN THE LOW LEVEL LATE
IN THE DAY, AS IS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM12 AND HRRR MODELS,
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
VERY LIGHT WINDS AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KTOP 011737
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 18z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist
through the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As
surface high pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday,
northwesterly winds will veer toward the northeast and eventually
to the southeast by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 011737
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 18z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist
through the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As
surface high pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday,
northwesterly winds will veer toward the northeast and eventually
to the southeast by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 011735
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 12z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist through
the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As surface high
pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday, northwesterly winds will
veer toward the northeast and eventually to the southeast by the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 011735
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 12z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist through
the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As surface high
pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday, northwesterly winds will
veer toward the northeast and eventually to the southeast by the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 011735
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 12z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist through
the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As surface high
pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday, northwesterly winds will
veer toward the northeast and eventually to the southeast by the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 011735
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1135 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For the 12z TAFs, scattered to broken MVFR cigs will persist through
the day as the storm system exits east of the area. As surface high
pressure moves over the area tonight into Monday, northwesterly winds will
veer toward the northeast and eventually to the southeast by the end
of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KGLD 011705
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO AREA TEMPS/
CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST OBS TREND IN PAST FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 011705
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1005 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO AREA TEMPS/
CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST OBS TREND IN PAST FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

KGLD...VFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 20Z BEFORE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVES IN
PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS FROM THE NORTH UNDER 10KTS. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE TERMINAL IN THE 00Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 10Z. BEST CHANCE
ALBEIT SMALL FOR SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS IS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME
SO FOR NOW HAVE VCSH. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY NEAR 12KTS BY 10Z. DURING THE MORNING MONDAY
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 25KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WHICH IF TRUE WOULD PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS. AM THINKING ITS MORE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT THE MODEL THINKS IS
SNOW COVER OVER THE AREA SO FOR NOW HAVE A SCT GROUP AROUND 1500`.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 01Z BEFORE BECOMING
VRB05KTS FROM 02Z-08Z. AFTER 09Z SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 5KTS
EXPECTED THEN INCREASING AFTER 15Z WHERE GUSTS 20-25KTS EXPECTED.
SIMILAR TO KGLD WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TERMINAL IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KICT 011627
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH...THE EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST FOR CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS AND HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THAT FOR THE BEST TRENDS.
THINK THAT THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT AROUND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 20Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...CLEARING OUT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL PLAN TO CLEAR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND/OR EXTEND IF NEEDED IF THE
WINTRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONGER THAN 20Z. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EXPECT CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED ICE MENTION WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED...ICING HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE WICHITA FORECAST OFFICE. SLICK ROADWAYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS PERSISTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      32  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          30  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        30  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  50  10  20  40
RUSSELL         33  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     33  22  37  36 /  40  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  50  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  40  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 011627
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH...THE EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST FOR CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS AND HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THAT FOR THE BEST TRENDS.
THINK THAT THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT AROUND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 20Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...CLEARING OUT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL PLAN TO CLEAR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND/OR EXTEND IF NEEDED IF THE
WINTRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONGER THAN 20Z. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EXPECT CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED ICE MENTION WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED...ICING HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE WICHITA FORECAST OFFICE. SLICK ROADWAYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS PERSISTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      32  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          30  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        30  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  50  10  20  40
RUSSELL         33  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     33  22  37  36 /  40  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  50  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  40  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011627
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH...THE EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST FOR CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS AND HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THAT FOR THE BEST TRENDS.
THINK THAT THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT AROUND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 20Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...CLEARING OUT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL PLAN TO CLEAR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND/OR EXTEND IF NEEDED IF THE
WINTRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONGER THAN 20Z. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EXPECT CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED ICE MENTION WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED...ICING HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE WICHITA FORECAST OFFICE. SLICK ROADWAYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS PERSISTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      32  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          30  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        30  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  50  10  20  40
RUSSELL         33  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     33  22  37  36 /  40  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  50  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  40  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011627
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING MUCH...THE EARLIER
RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEMED TO DO THE BEST FOR CURRENT RADAR
INDICATIONS AND HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW THAT FOR THE BEST TRENDS.
THINK THAT THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT AROUND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AT LEAST OVER SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS AND THUS HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 20Z FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...CLEARING OUT CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. WILL PLAN TO CLEAR THE ADVISORY FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND/OR EXTEND IF NEEDED IF THE
WINTRY WEATHER PERSISTS LONGER THAN 20Z. AT THIS TIME FEEL THAT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT OCCURRING WOULD BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...EXPECT CHANCES TO DIMINISH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASED ICE MENTION WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN...BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS EXPECTED...ICING HAD
ALREADY OCCURRED AT THE WICHITA FORECAST OFFICE. SLICK ROADWAYS
ARE EXPECTED AS THIS PERSISTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      32  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          30  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        30  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  50  10  20  40
RUSSELL         33  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     33  22  37  36 /  40  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  50  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  40  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 011338
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
738 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  40  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      31  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          31  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  30  10  20  40
RUSSELL         35  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     32  22  37  36 /  20  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  30  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011338
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
738 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  40  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      31  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          31  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  30  10  20  40
RUSSELL         35  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     32  22  37  36 /  20  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  30  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011338
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
738 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  40  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      31  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          31  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  30  10  20  40
RUSSELL         35  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     32  22  37  36 /  20  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  30  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011338
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
738 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

HAVE MADE UPDATES TO POPS AND WEATHER OVER THE LAST HOUR.

INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS
AS RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RETURNS BUILDING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO TOOK OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND ADDED
SLEET BASED ON REPORTS AND CURRENT OBS. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ROADWAYS SLICK.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  40  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      31  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          31  19  34  34 /  70  10  20  30
ELDORADO        31  20  35  34 /  50  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  30  10  20  40
RUSSELL         35  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     32  22  37  36 /  20  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  40  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  30  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011239
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO AREA TEMPS/
CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST OBS TREND IN PAST FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THRU 16Z TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK WITH SCT025 BKN-
OVC050. KGLD WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVC025...WITH 6SM -SHSN. FROM
16Z ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-100 AND -SHSN AFT 07Z
MONDAY. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS THRU 16Z THEN NORTH
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 011239
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO AREA TEMPS/
CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST OBS TREND IN PAST FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THRU 16Z TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK WITH SCT025 BKN-
OVC050. KGLD WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVC025...WITH 6SM -SHSN. FROM
16Z ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-100 AND -SHSN AFT 07Z
MONDAY. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS THRU 16Z THEN NORTH
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011239
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
539 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 539 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

FOR THE LATEST UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO AREA TEMPS/
CLOUDS BASED ON LATEST OBS TREND IN PAST FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THRU 16Z TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK WITH SCT025 BKN-
OVC050. KGLD WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVC025...WITH 6SM -SHSN. FROM
16Z ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-100 AND -SHSN AFT 07Z
MONDAY. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS THRU 16Z THEN NORTH
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 011139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as scattered light snow bands
develop south of KTOP/KFOE. Will occasionally see MVFR conditions
within the snow bands before coming to an end by 16Z. Currently
not confident enough for IFR cigs to reach KTOP/KFOE as there is some
uncertainty in guidance on where heavier snow band develops. MVFR
stratus develops after 16Z before incoming dry air with the high
pressure scatters out lower stratus to VFR this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KTOP 011139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as scattered light snow bands
develop south of KTOP/KFOE. Will occasionally see MVFR conditions
within the snow bands before coming to an end by 16Z. Currently
not confident enough for IFR cigs to reach KTOP/KFOE as there is some
uncertainty in guidance on where heavier snow band develops. MVFR
stratus develops after 16Z before incoming dry air with the high
pressure scatters out lower stratus to VFR this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KTOP 011139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as scattered light snow bands
develop south of KTOP/KFOE. Will occasionally see MVFR conditions
within the snow bands before coming to an end by 16Z. Currently
not confident enough for IFR cigs to reach KTOP/KFOE as there is some
uncertainty in guidance on where heavier snow band develops. MVFR
stratus develops after 16Z before incoming dry air with the high
pressure scatters out lower stratus to VFR this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KTOP 011139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as scattered light snow bands
develop south of KTOP/KFOE. Will occasionally see MVFR conditions
within the snow bands before coming to an end by 16Z. Currently
not confident enough for IFR cigs to reach KTOP/KFOE as there is some
uncertainty in guidance on where heavier snow band develops. MVFR
stratus develops after 16Z before incoming dry air with the high
pressure scatters out lower stratus to VFR this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KICT 011139
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
539 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  20  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      31  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          31  19  34  34 /  30  10  20  30
ELDORADO        31  20  35  34 /  20  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         35  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     32  22  37  36 /  20  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  20  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  20  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  20  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011139
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
539 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

LOCALLY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
KS. KICT WAS THE MOST AFFECTED WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. CONDITIONS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECTING AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AT KICT-KHUT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SE KS AND WILL BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR.
NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION WITH THIS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK IN.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  20  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      31  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          31  19  34  34 /  30  10  20  30
ELDORADO        31  20  35  34 /  20  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         35  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     32  22  37  36 /  20  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  20  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  20  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  20  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 011130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THRU 16Z TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK WITH SCT025 BKN-
OVC050. KGLD WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVC025...WITH 6SM -SHSN. FROM
16Z ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-100 AND -SHSN AFT 07Z
MONDAY. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS THRU 16Z THEN NORTH
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THRU 16Z TODAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR KMCK WITH SCT025 BKN-
OVC050. KGLD WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVC025...WITH 6SM -SHSN. FROM
16Z ONWARD...VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-100 AND -SHSN AFT 07Z
MONDAY. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS THRU 16Z THEN NORTH
5-10KTS...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 10KTS BY 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 011129
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
529 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK WILL BLANKET SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT. LIFR CIGS ALONG WITH IFR VSBYS AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE IFR AND VFR
CATEGORIES, RESPECTIVELY, AFTER 15Z. BY THIS AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY WITH VFR CIGS AT
HAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 011129
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
529 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK WILL BLANKET SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT. LIFR CIGS ALONG WITH IFR VSBYS AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE IFR AND VFR
CATEGORIES, RESPECTIVELY, AFTER 15Z. BY THIS AFTERNOON MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY WITH VFR CIGS AT
HAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID
MORNING. BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN
MVFR STRATUS AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 011023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID
MORNING. BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN
MVFR STRATUS AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID
MORNING. BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN
MVFR STRATUS AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011023
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM THE
QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA TO A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS THIS WEEK UNFOLDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING ITS GRIP
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BUT MOISTURE PROFILES
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.

ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ZONE BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL QPF FIELDS
ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS MOVING OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, WILL
HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

LATER IN THE WEEK, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID
MORNING. BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE
MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN
MVFR STRATUS AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
350 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEAK 30 DBZ RADAR ECHOES WERE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONED DOWN QPF OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM MODEL
RUNS PROMPTED DROPPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WERE NOT SEEN AS STRONGLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL, IN LACKING A SHEAR LAYER
ABOVE OR NEAR THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER. AS A RESULT, THE REST
OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE COLD AND CLOUDY WITH STRATUS REMAINING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH POSSIBLY SOME AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPING MAINLY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LINE WHERE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN THE SMALLEST.

SLIGHT POPS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WERE ALSO REMOVED EVEN FROM THE
EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM WEAK ENHANCED LIFT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RANGE AS THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHES
COLORADO LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE, THE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE SIMILAR, IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INIDCATE A NARROW BAND OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID MORNING.
BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE MORE  OF AN
ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN MVFR STRATUS
AT HYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  18  38  35 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  31  18  40  34 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  33  20  45  37 /  20  20  10  10
LBL  34  23  43  37 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  36  17  37  33 /  10  10  20  20
P28  32  20  37  34 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KICT 010928
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INDUCES TRANSIENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  20  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      31  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          31  19  34  34 /  30  10  20  30
ELDORADO        31  20  35  34 /  20  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         35  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     32  22  37  36 /  20  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  20  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  20  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  20  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 010928
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE
AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHICH COULD CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADWAYS ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD
RISE SOME COMPARED TO SUNDAY`S HIGHS BUT VALUES WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SNOW
COVERED AREAS. CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO INCREASE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS. THE COLDER AIR WOULD CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS JUNCTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING RATHER LOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW COVER AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...A DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY-
SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INDUCES TRANSIENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO SNOW COVER BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  20  35  34 /  20  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      31  20  34  33 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          31  19  34  34 /  30  10  20  30
ELDORADO        31  20  35  34 /  20  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  21  36  35 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         35  18  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      33  19  37  34 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          34  20  36  33 /  20  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       32  19  35  33 /  30  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     32  22  37  36 /  20  10  20  60
CHANUTE         31  21  36  35 /  20  10  20  60
IOLA            31  20  36  35 /  20  10  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    32  22  36  35 /  20  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010925
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MUCH DRIER
THAN EARLIER OUTPUT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND IF ANY
DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. ALSO MODELS ARE PRODUCING LESS FOG AS WELL.

FOR KGLD...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING AND THEY
SHOULD RISE VFR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010925
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS AREA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA IS
CARRYING REMAINING -SW AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SET UP TO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GIVING THE
AREA SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

MAIN WX FEATURE GOING INTO TODAY AND CARRYING ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WILL FOCUS AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITTING
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE ON THE RETURN FLOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS SHOWING UP WELL ON WV SATELLITE LOOP. IT IS THIS
MOISTURE THAT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION GIVING MAINLY WESTERN
ZONES A SMALL CHANCE FOR -SW. 500/700MB RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
ROCKIES FROM THE SE DURING THE DAY...AIDING IN THE CUTOFF OF
PRECIP DURING THE DAY...SHUNTING IT WELL INTO THE ROCKIES.

MODELS DO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY A SURFACE SYSTEM
MOVING ASHORE AND INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY GOING INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
COLORADO/UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FEED FROM TROUGH/RIDGE.

OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 24-HOUR PERIOD...EXPECTING LIGHT SNOW WITH
FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM EXPECTED.
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT/WAA COMBINED WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

GONG INTO MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR EAST...AND
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW HAS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
REGION. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL STEADY THRU
MOST OF THE DAY UNTIL SYSTEM OVER ROCKIES SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH A
NUDGE FROM UPPER CUTOFF LOW SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE WEST
COASTLINE. THIS SHIFT THRU THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY OVER
ROCKIES TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP...TAPERING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARDS E/SE AREAS. WARM SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PERSISTS THRU
THE DAY SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT OF -RW MIXING IN AS HIGHS
WILL STRETCH NEAR THE 40F MARK.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT RIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN WX FEATURES
WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO WORK OFF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR AND FINALLY ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH. MODEL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
DOES DIFFER AND WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT POPS AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP
CWA WILL SEE...IN TANDEM WITH ARCTIC FROPA. CHANCE POPS IS WHAT
THE CWA WILL SEE AT THIS TIME WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INCHES ACCUM. CHANCE FOR SYSTEM TO FALL APART WITH PASSAGE AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY BE QUICKER TO ARRIVE INTO AREA...FOREGOING ANY
MOISTURE FEED WITH LOW PASSAGE. SOME DIFFERENCES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AS SPEED OF FROPA IS KEY...BUT AREA SHOULD SEE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS AREA STAYS IN WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF UPCOMING FROPA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG COLD AIR TO WORK OVER AREA...DROPPING LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE ZERO.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
WITH MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WELL EAST OF OUR CWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER TREND IN GFS/ECMWF HAS BEEN
TO SHIFT THIS SOUTH OF THE CWA EVEN QUICKER. I DECIDED TO KEEP
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WED MORNING HOURS...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT MAINLY FLURRIES. FRIGID AIR
MASS RETURN HOWEVER AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
20S. CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSING IN
ON ADVISORY CRITERIA WED MORNING AND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH THEY HAVE MODERATED THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CONFLUENT FLOW BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS H5 RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN OVER OUR CWA ALLOWING FOR DRY
CONDITIONS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPACTS FROM SNOW PACK MAINLY THURSDAY (IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
CWA )...HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF WAA I THINK THIS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MUCH DRIER
THAN EARLIER OUTPUT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND IF ANY
DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. ALSO MODELS ARE PRODUCING LESS FOG AS WELL.

FOR KGLD...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING AND THEY
SHOULD RISE VFR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KTOP 010857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2 KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVAILING CIGS
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4 KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VSBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 010857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2 KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVAILING CIGS
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4 KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VSBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 010857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2 KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVAILING CIGS
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4 KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VSBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 010857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2 KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVAILING CIGS
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4 KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VSBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 010857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2 KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVAILING CIGS
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4 KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VSBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2 KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVAILING CIGS
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4 KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VSBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2 KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVAILING CIGS
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4 KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VSBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
257 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

Expansive upper trough axis continues to rotate off the CA coast
while weaker embedded areas of vorticity were lifting north and
east towards Colorado and Kansas. A stronger shortwave trough was
observed shifting southeast towards the northern plains later this
morning. Lows were starting out in the teens and lower 20s with
scattered light snow or flurries across northeast Kansas.

Main highlight of the forecast is expected snowfall from sunrise
through noon today. As the upper trough dives southeast, mid level
forcing is enhanced within the embedded vorticity maxima tracking
east over the state. Timing of this feature and area of weak
frontogenesis will place the snow band near the Interstate 70
corridor based on latest runs of the RAP and NAM or just south near
the Intestate 35 corridor based on the 4-KM WRF and HRRR solutions.
Duration of light snow is quick as well with lift diminishing
eastward by mid afternoon today. Main changes for the forecast
package were to remove precip chances for far north central Kansas
as dry air aloft increases after sunrise. Also adjusted highest
chances for snowfall in the above mentioned areas where an
additional one half to one inch of snow is expected. Will maintain
the advisory ongoing until noon and have the following shift remove
counties as the snowfall exits.

With the snowfall exiting quicker and the possibility of higher
cloud bases, increased highs today a few degrees in the lower to
possibly middle 30s. Weak high pressure shifts southeast this
evening as skies become partly to mostly cloudy. Calm winds and snow
covered ground hold lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

For Monday models prog the mid level shortwave ridge to be over
the area with low level moisture remaining to the south of the
forecast. So with no real forcing expected to affect the area,
have a dry forecast through the day. With some cloud cover and the
surface ridge possibly influencing eastern KS still, have highs
only reaching the mid and upper 30s.

Monday night and Tuesday appear to be the next opportunity for
precip as low level return flow advects moisture north while a
shortwave kicks out from the base of the mid level trough over the
southwest. However chances appear to remain limited. The model
consensus shows the stronger Q vector convergence and PV anomaly
passing just north of the forecast area while a dry slot moves
into eastern KS by Tuesday morning. With the deeper moisture over
far eastern KS, have kept the higher POPs across the east during
the early morning hours Tuesday as the shortwave passes by. Prior
to this there could be some drizzle develop and spread northeast
through the area in response to the stronger low level moisture
return. Depending on temps, there could be a brief period of light
freezing drizzle. However I expect this to be short lived mainly
in the evening as warm air advection should cause temps to rise
through the night. Therefore any accumulations should be very
minor. Another arctic ridge of high pressure is set to move
through the forecast area Tuesday with the GFS trending a little
faster with the frontal passage. However with the dry slot in
place as the front moves through and upper level forcing likely to
the northeast of the forecast area, the front may move through
mostly dry through the early afternoon. The forecast anticipates
falling temps through the afternoon as cold air moves in behind
the front. But for the most part think that any precip on Tuesday
is likely to be out ahead of the front and in the form of rain.
There are still weak indications of some convective instability
Tuesday morning. Because of this have kept a mention for thunder
across east central KS. Lows Monday night are forecast to occur
early in the evening while highs Tuesday are likely to be measured
late in the morning.

Tuesday night may be the last chance for precip through the rest
of the week. There remains some indication for some mid level
frontogenesis along with enough moisture for mid level saturation.
The NAM is most bullish with this idea developing several
hundredths of precip. While less impressive, the ECMWF also spits
out some very light precip. Because of this have continued with a
slight chance for snow Tuesday night. However would not anticipate
the snow amounting to very much if at all.

The upper level trough axis is progged to finally move east of the
forecast area Wednesday night. But with dry air moving in with the
arctic airmass on Tuesday, precip chances Wednesday and Wednesday
night look to be less than 20 percent due to to much dry air.
Wednesday is shaping up to be another cold day with lows in the
teens and highs in the 20s.

Thursday through Saturday continues to look dry with moderating
temps as models keep a dry northwest flow over the central plains.
By Friday, highs are expected to be in the 50s. This could be a
little conservative with the GFS and ECMWF showing 925 MB temps
warming to between +5 and +10C. For now stayed with the model
consensus and have highs in the lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2 KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVAILING CIGS
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4 KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VSBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KDDC 010712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
112 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INIDCATE A NARROW BAND OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID MORNING.
BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE MORE  OF AN
ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN MVFR STRATUS
AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  20  38  35 /  60  20  20  20
GCK  31  19  40  34 /  30  20  20  10
EHA  33  21  45  38 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  34  22  43  37 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  35  21  39  33 /  30  20  20  20
P28  32  22  39  35 /  60  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
112 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INIDCATE A NARROW BAND OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID MORNING.
BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE MORE  OF AN
ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN MVFR STRATUS
AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  20  38  35 /  60  20  20  20
GCK  31  19  40  34 /  30  20  20  10
EHA  33  21  45  38 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  34  22  43  37 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  35  21  39  33 /  30  20  20  20
P28  32  22  39  35 /  60  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
112 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INIDCATE A NARROW BAND OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID MORNING.
BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE MORE  OF AN
ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN MVFR STRATUS
AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  20  38  35 /  60  20  20  20
GCK  31  19  40  34 /  30  20  20  10
EHA  33  21  45  38 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  34  22  43  37 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  35  21  39  33 /  30  20  20  20
P28  32  22  39  35 /  60  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010712
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
112 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE DDC AND GCK TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE HI
RESOLUTIONS AND RAPID REFRESH MODELS INIDCATE A NARROW BAND OF WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE EITHER SNOW OR SLEET, BETWEEN NOW AND MID MORNING.
BASED ON RECENT MODEL RUNS, THIS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE MORE  OF AN
ISSUE FOR DDC THAN GCK, AND LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN MVFR STRATUS
AT HYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  20  38  35 /  60  20  20  20
GCK  31  19  40  34 /  30  20  20  10
EHA  33  21  45  38 /  20  30  20  10
LBL  34  22  43  37 /  30  20  10  10
HYS  35  21  39  33 /  30  20  20  20
P28  32  22  39  35 /  60  10  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 010538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MUCH DRIER
THAN EARLIER OUTPUT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND IF ANY
DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. ALSO MODELS ARE PRODUCING LESS FOG AS WELL.

FOR KGLD...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING AND THEY
SHOULD RISE VFR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MUCH DRIER
THAN EARLIER OUTPUT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND IF ANY
DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. ALSO MODELS ARE PRODUCING LESS FOG AS WELL.

FOR KGLD...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING AND THEY
SHOULD RISE VFR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 010538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MUCH DRIER
THAN EARLIER OUTPUT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND IF ANY
DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. ALSO MODELS ARE PRODUCING LESS FOG AS WELL.

FOR KGLD...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING AND THEY
SHOULD RISE VFR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MUCH DRIER
THAN EARLIER OUTPUT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND IF ANY
DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. ALSO MODELS ARE PRODUCING LESS FOG AS WELL.

FOR KGLD...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING AND THEY
SHOULD RISE VFR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MUCH DRIER
THAN EARLIER OUTPUT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND IF ANY
DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. ALSO MODELS ARE PRODUCING LESS FOG AS WELL.

FOR KGLD...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING AND THEY
SHOULD RISE VFR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010538
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MUCH DRIER
THAN EARLIER OUTPUT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS EXPECTED AND IF ANY
DOES OCCUR...THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION. ALSO MODELS ARE PRODUCING LESS FOG AS WELL.

FOR KGLD...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
12Z AND THEN SHOULD BECOME VFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING AND THEY
SHOULD RISE VFR BY 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KICT 010536
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INDUCES TRANSIENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  90  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  90  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 010536
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INDUCES TRANSIENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  90  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  90  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010536
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INDUCES TRANSIENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  90  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  90  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010536
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INDUCES TRANSIENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  90  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  90  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010536
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INDUCES TRANSIENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  90  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  90  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010536
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY
ON SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INDUCES TRANSIENT LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS PRIMARILY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  90  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  90  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVALING CIG
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VISBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVALING CIG
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VISBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVALING CIG
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VISBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVALING CIG
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VISBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVALING CIG
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VISBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 010527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WILL SCATTER OUT THE 2KFT DECK AT THIS TIME AS PREVALING CIG
HEIGHT IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-4KFT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING SNOW FOR
LIGHT BAND MOVING OVER TAF SITES BUT HAVE IMPROVED VISBY TO 4SM.
STILL HOLD LOWER CLOUDS TILL AROUND THE NOON HOUR BEFORE STARTING
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ021>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KDDC 282358
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF KGCK, DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT, IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK
AND KDDC GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. KHYS COULD SEE IFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  17  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  21  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  21  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  14  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  20  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 282358
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF KGCK, DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT, IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK
AND KDDC GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. KHYS COULD SEE IFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  17  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  21  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  21  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  14  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  20  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 282358
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF KGCK, DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT, IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK
AND KDDC GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. KHYS COULD SEE IFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  17  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  21  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  21  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  14  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  20  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 282358
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF KGCK, DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT, IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK
AND KDDC GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. KHYS COULD SEE IFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  17  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  21  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  21  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  14  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  20  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 282358
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF KGCK, DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT, IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK
AND KDDC GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. KHYS COULD SEE IFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  17  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  21  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  21  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  14  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  20  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 282358
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET EAST OF KGCK, DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT, IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KGCK
AND KDDC GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. KHYS COULD SEE IFR CIGS TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  18  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  17  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  21  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  21  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  14  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  20  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KICT 282353
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO MISSOURI BY MID-EVENING WITH A
LULL IN WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
AN UPPER JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  70  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  70  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  70  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 282353
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO MISSOURI BY MID-EVENING WITH A
LULL IN WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
AN UPPER JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  70  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  70  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  70  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 282353
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO MISSOURI BY MID-EVENING WITH A
LULL IN WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
AN UPPER JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  70  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  70  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  70  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 282353
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO MISSOURI BY MID-EVENING WITH A
LULL IN WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
AN UPPER JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  70  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  70  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  70  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 282348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

SATURATED LOWER LEVELS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODERATE
LIFT WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING OR SPREAD A NEW BATCH OF LIGHT
SNOW IN DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THIS COLD AND SATURATED AIR MASS IT
DOES NOT TAKE A LOT TO KEEP THE SNOW GOING. FOR KGLD...MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
FLURRIES/LACK OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 13Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER INTO TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME THE NEXT BAND OF SNOW WILL COME AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM AROUND 08Z TO NEAR 12Z. JUST LIKE KGLD...FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FROM
12Z TO 18Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 282348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

SATURATED LOWER LEVELS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODERATE
LIFT WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING OR SPREAD A NEW BATCH OF LIGHT
SNOW IN DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THIS COLD AND SATURATED AIR MASS IT
DOES NOT TAKE A LOT TO KEEP THE SNOW GOING. FOR KGLD...MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
FLURRIES/LACK OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 13Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER INTO TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME THE NEXT BAND OF SNOW WILL COME AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM AROUND 08Z TO NEAR 12Z. JUST LIKE KGLD...FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FROM
12Z TO 18Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 282348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

SATURATED LOWER LEVELS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODERATE
LIFT WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING OR SPREAD A NEW BATCH OF LIGHT
SNOW IN DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THIS COLD AND SATURATED AIR MASS IT
DOES NOT TAKE A LOT TO KEEP THE SNOW GOING. FOR KGLD...MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
FLURRIES/LACK OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 13Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER INTO TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME THE NEXT BAND OF SNOW WILL COME AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM AROUND 08Z TO NEAR 12Z. JUST LIKE KGLD...FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FROM
12Z TO 18Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 282348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

SATURATED LOWER LEVELS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT WEAK TO MODERATE
LIFT WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW GOING OR SPREAD A NEW BATCH OF LIGHT
SNOW IN DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THIS COLD AND SATURATED AIR MASS IT
DOES NOT TAKE A LOT TO KEEP THE SNOW GOING. FOR KGLD...MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD PICK UP IN THE 03Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
FLURRIES/LACK OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 13Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER INTO TONIGHT. AT THAT
TIME THE NEXT BAND OF SNOW WILL COME AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM AROUND 08Z TO NEAR 12Z. JUST LIKE KGLD...FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FROM
12Z TO 18Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KTOP 282321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow has slowed to just flurries near terminals and will keep as
such until additional snow forecast to develop around 06z. MVFR
conditions after midnight till near sunrise and expect MVFR cigs
to linger a few more hours until late morning when skies begin to
clear out. winds become more westerly then northwesterly through
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 282321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow has slowed to just flurries near terminals and will keep as
such until additional snow forecast to develop around 06z. MVFR
conditions after midnight till near sunrise and expect MVFR cigs
to linger a few more hours until late morning when skies begin to
clear out. winds become more westerly then northwesterly through
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 282321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow has slowed to just flurries near terminals and will keep as
such until additional snow forecast to develop around 06z. MVFR
conditions after midnight till near sunrise and expect MVFR cigs
to linger a few more hours until late morning when skies begin to
clear out. winds become more westerly then northwesterly through
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 282321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
521 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Snow has slowed to just flurries near terminals and will keep as
such until additional snow forecast to develop around 06z. MVFR
conditions after midnight till near sunrise and expect MVFR cigs
to linger a few more hours until late morning when skies begin to
clear out. winds become more westerly then northwesterly through
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 282149
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will likely continue this afternoon. Expect some
heavier periods of snow at least for the early part of the
afternoon with the areas of best lift and forcing. We could see
IFR conditions similar to earlier with these bands. This evening,
the first wave will have moved through with some gradual
improvement before the second wave arrives around midnight time
frame. Confidence with timing on this second round is a little on
the low end, but MVFR conditions are expected to remain in place
until after the forecast period. For longer term planning, check
back with the 00z and 06z TAF issuances for updates on second
round timing.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KTOP 282149
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will likely continue this afternoon. Expect some
heavier periods of snow at least for the early part of the
afternoon with the areas of best lift and forcing. We could see
IFR conditions similar to earlier with these bands. This evening,
the first wave will have moved through with some gradual
improvement before the second wave arrives around midnight time
frame. Confidence with timing on this second round is a little on
the low end, but MVFR conditions are expected to remain in place
until after the forecast period. For longer term planning, check
back with the 00z and 06z TAF issuances for updates on second
round timing.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 282149
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Late this afternoon water vapor satellite showed a minor short-wave
upper level trough moving east across central KS. Isentropic lift at
the 280mb through 300mb level continues across northeast and east
central KS. Most areas across the CWA have received 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall. There may be an additional half to one inch across
northeast and east central KS the remainder of this afternoon.
Moderate to heavy snowfall could provide portions of Coffey and
Anderson counties with closer to 2 more inches of snow this
afternoon into the early evening hours.

As the first H5 trough moves east into MO, the snow should become
light and may stop in some areas for several hours through about 300
AM Sunday.

A stronger upper level trough across eastern MT and southern Canada
will dig southeast across the northern and central plains Tonight.
Most models show the frontogenetical forcing increasing ahead of the
digging H5 trough across eastern KS. Though models all differ quite
a bit in timing and and intensity of the forcing at mid levels. The
ARW shows a rather intense band of snow developing along the I-70
corridor after 12Z Sunday and lasting into the late morning hours of
Sunday. This could give areas of east central KS about 2 to 4 inches
of snow on Sunday morning. The 18Z NAM develops the frontogenesis at
mid levels between 9z and 14Z across northeast KS into northern MO,
which would cause a band of 1 to 2 inches of snow to develop after
9z and shift east into MO by 14Z with just a dusting farther south
across east central KS. I`ll probably trend more towards a
NMM/GFS/ECMWF solution which shows a band of light to moderate snow
developing around 12Z SUN and moving east of the area during the
late morning hours. Total additional snow accumulations across north
central KS Tonight and Sunday morning will be a half inch or less.
Additional snowfall across northeast and east central KS will be 1
to 2 inches. Most of the snow will shift east in MO by Noon on
Sunday.

I`ll keep the winter weather advisory going through the afternoon
hours. The next shift will probably have to cancel the advisory for
north central KS.

Lows Tonight will only drop off into the upper teens and lower 20s.
Highs tomorrow will reach the lower to mid 30s, with upper 30s if we
see some late afternoon insolation.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 348 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Dry conditions are expected by Sunday night as the mid-level trough
axis progresses northeast of the area and surface high pressure
advances into the Central Plains behind the exiting system. Much of
the area should be dry through the day on Monday, however models
still show a few weak embedded shortwaves developing within the
mid-level flow over western and possibly central Kansas, with some
light precipitation possibly clipping far north central Kansas.
However, due to the low confidence in this occurring, only have a
mention of slight chance PoPs. Depending upon the timing of any
light precipitation that occurs, it may be in the form of light
rain, freezing drizzle, or snow.  Some model soundings are
suggesting the potential for some areas of drizzle to develop
throughout the day on Monday as some isentropic lift will be
present, but there may not be enough saturation present so have not
included a mention of it at this time but it`s worth monitoring in
future forecast updates. As winds shift to the southeast, Monday
high temperatures should reach into the upper 30s to around 40
degrees.

Precipitation chances increase once again Monday night through
Tuesday as another mid-level trough deepens across the Rockies and
tracks eastward into the central U.S. through mid-week. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
over the Rockies eastward across Kansas on Tuesday. Expect winds to
veer to the southwest and increase in speed Monday night into
Tuesday morning, resulting in warm air advection and rising
temperatures through the overnight period. Temperatures near the
Nebraska/Kansas border Monday night may be near freezing, so any
initial precipitation that develops may potentially be in the form
of rain or freezing rain. But with temperatures quickly rising,
precipitation type should transition to all rain by mid/late evening
as this precipitation becomes more widespread across the area. This
system will be accompanied by a strong cold front, which should move
into north central Kansas Tuesday morning and track eastward across
the forecast area through mid afternoon. In general, models seem to
be a bit faster with the timing of this frontal passage. As cold air
comes surging into the area behind the front, expect temperatures to
quickly plummet through the afternoon hours. There should be a
decent temperature gradient over the area, but with there still
being some model uncertainty in the exact timing of this frontal
passage it`s still difficult to fine-tune this gradient. At this
time, have high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to low 50s
(from northwest to southeast), with falling temperatures during the
afternoon. Precipitation should remain in the form of rain Tuesday
morning and have kept the mention of isolated thunder for far east
central Kansas as the GFS continues to hint at some weak elevated
instability. Otherwise expect rain to transition to snow as the
temperatures fall below freezing. There is still some uncertainty
with how quickly the dry air will move in behind this system, with
some soundings showing maybe only flurries lingering over the area
Tuesday night as we lose saturation in the dendritic growth zone. As a
result, have continued to lower PoPs for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning but most of the forecast area should be dry by
early Wednesday morning. With the steady cold air advection, low
temperatures should drop into the teens Tuesday night with highs
only in the 20s for Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will advance into the region by mid week with
dry conditions expected through Saturday. As this high shifts to the
east and winds veer to the southwest again, temperatures should
gradually moderate for the latter part of the week with highs into
the 50s by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will likely continue this afternoon. Expect some
heavier periods of snow at least for the early part of the
afternoon with the areas of best lift and forcing. We could see
IFR conditions similar to earlier with these bands. This evening,
the first wave will have moved through with some gradual
improvement before the second wave arrives around midnight time
frame. Confidence with timing on this second round is a little on
the low end, but MVFR conditions are expected to remain in place
until after the forecast period. For longer term planning, check
back with the 00z and 06z TAF issuances for updates on second
round timing.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KDDC 282142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
342 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  19  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  24  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  24  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  20  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  23  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 282142
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
342 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS WE REMAIN IN THIS BROAD, CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW PATTERN, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE TREND OF MINOR SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...PROVIDING US WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WE SEE SUBTLE DEFORMATION/CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NEXT IN THE
SERIES WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER THE BREAK WE HAD THIS AFTERNOON. POPS
WILL BE INCREASED BACK UP IN TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE VERY LATEST 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND THE HRRR/RAP HAVE THROWN A LITTLE WRINKLE IN
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS THE NEXT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL START ABOUT 6 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT (WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT AT THIS CLOSE OF A TIME RANGE) WHEREAS
THE RAP AND HRRR REALLY SHOW NOTHING MUCH AT ALL. IT REALLY IS A
FINE LINE BETWEEN NO PRECIP AT ALL AND LIGHT ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
THIS FLOW REGIME, AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE AS THERE IS (YET MOIST). THE
SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW A WARMING OF THE 850-750MB LAYER TO THE POINT
THAT A SLIGHT WARM NOSE ABOVE 0C WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR SLEET
AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT, AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN HAPPEN AT ALL. THE
INCOMING SWING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS TO SEE OF THE WINTER
WX ADVISORY IS STILL NEED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IN TO THE
MORNING SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY
AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  19  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  24  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  24  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  20  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  23  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KGLD 282140
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING (PER 850-700MB RH AND BETTER DENDRITIC LAYER TEMPS NEAR THE
SFC) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS). COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVE IN TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT DECREASING LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES CONSIDERABLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A GENERAL LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM TOUCHES THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
00Z MONDAY.

ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE UNDER ONE HALF
INCH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 8F-13F RANGE IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TEENS EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. HIGHS SUNDAY ABOUT 6-9F
WARMER AT 850MB SUPPORTING MOS/BIAS CORRECTED GRID MAXES IN THE MID
20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF
THE CO/KS BORDER. HAVE CONCERN ABOUT FAR EASTERN COLORADO MAX TEMPS.
NAM/GFS BOUNDARY LAYER RH VERY HIGH SUGGESTING EITHER A LAYER OF
STRATUS/MIST/FOG OR ITS FEEDBACK FROM SOME SNOW COVER. IF THE LATTER
TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE TEMPS OUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

KGLD...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
11KTS. BY 00Z TERMINAL SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH 08Z. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 15Z DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CIGS
WONT BE FAR AWAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A RISE IN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 07Z.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN EXPECTED
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
VICINITY. IF ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL
VIS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS WELL THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND NORTH WINDS JUST OVER
5KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 282050
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

KGLD...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
11KTS. BY 00Z TERMINAL SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH 08Z. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 15Z DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CIGS
WONT BE FAR AWAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A RISE IN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 07Z.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN EXPECTED
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
VICINITY. IF ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL
VIS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS WELL THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND NORTH WINDS JUST OVER
5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 282050
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

ALTHOUGH A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO AFTER 06Z MONDAY. BY 12Z MONDAY
MORNING...WEAK CYCLONIC DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SNOW TO END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT THE FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
BY 18Z. EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY.

THE WARMER AIR MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT
REALLY SATURATE UNTIL 15Z TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL A LOW
LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM 12Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO BE FAST MOVING AND WARM
LAYER WILL NOT LAST LONG...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INTRODUCE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THE FORECASTS YET. OTHERWISE...SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING
A CHANCE OF SNOW...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

ALTHOUGH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRY. WARMER
AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY...SO EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE 50S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

KGLD...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
11KTS. BY 00Z TERMINAL SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH 08Z. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 15Z DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CIGS
WONT BE FAR AWAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A RISE IN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 07Z.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN EXPECTED
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
VICINITY. IF ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL
VIS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS WELL THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND NORTH WINDS JUST OVER
5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KICT 282026
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  80  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  80  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 282026
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  80  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  80  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 282026
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  80  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  80  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 282026
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WIDESPREAD SNOW RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF BROAD AND DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEVERAL
BANDS OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE BRUNT
OF THIS MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER JET STREAK INTENSIFIES FROM NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA. CONFLUENT FLOW DEVELOPS AT 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS UPPER JET. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL. BASED ON THE NAM-WRF...THIS BAND MAY SET UP
IN A ROUGHLY 50 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM A HUTCHINSON TO EMPORIA
LINE. SINCE THIS WOULD BE A MESOSCALE BAND...THE PLACEMENT COULD BE
OFF SOME THIS FAR OUT. NEVERTHELESS...THINKING A QUICK 1-3 INCHES
COULD OCCUR IN THAT BAND BEFORE IT SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM...WITH CLOUD ICE
ALOFT IN QUESTION. PLANS FOR NOW ARE TO CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 18Z SUNDAY WITH OVERALL STORM TOTALS IN THE
3 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN THE SOUTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS TOWARD I-70. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS FROM WESTERN CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL
OCCUR MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CREEPS UP INTO SOUTHEAST KS LATER MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AM...AND WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDER THERE. THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BLAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME TUESDAY...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN INFILTRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL
READINGS FALLING TO ZERO TO MINUS 5 IN CENTRAL KS LATE TUES
NIGHT/EARLY WED AM. WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED
EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGHING FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH COLDER THAN
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...MOST IF
NOT ALL...OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND COLDER THAN SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
HUTCHINSON      19  32  20  36 /  70  70  10  20
NEWTON          19  32  19  37 /  70  80  10  20
ELDORADO        19  32  21  37 /  70  70  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   20  32  22  38 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         16  34  18  38 /  50  50  10  20
GREAT BEND      18  33  19  37 /  60  70  10  20
SALINA          18  33  20  37 /  60  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       19  33  19  37 /  70  70  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     23  33  24  39 /  80  60  10  20
CHANUTE         20  32  22  38 /  80  80  10  20
IOLA            20  32  21  39 /  80  80  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    21  33  23  38 /  80  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 282015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  19  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  24  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  24  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  20  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  23  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 282015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  19  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  24  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  24  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  20  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  23  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 282015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  19  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  24  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  24  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  20  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  23  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 282015
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
215 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT REACHING TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. AS OF NOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEING 3 DAYS OUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME CHANGES AS IT
APPROACHES. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY DUE TO THE EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
KS/OK BORDER. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY
THEN LOWER 50S FRIDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  31  20  38 /  70  60  20  20
GCK  19  31  19  40 /  60  30  20  20
EHA  24  33  21  45 /  30  20  30  20
LBL  24  34  22  43 /  50  30  20  10
HYS  20  35  21  39 /  40  30  20  20
P28  23  32  22  39 /  60  60  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ046-064>066-
076>081-086>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KTOP 281801
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will likely continue this afternoon. Expect some
heavier periods of snow at least for the early part of the
afternoon with the areas of best lift and forcing. We could see
IFR conditions similar to earlier with these bands. This evening,
the first wave will have moved through with some gradual
improvement before the second wave arrives around midnight time
frame. Confidence with timing on this second round is a little on
the low end, but MVFR conditions are expected to remain in place
until after the forecast period. For longer term planning, check
back with the 00z and 06z TAF issuances for updates on second
round timing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281801
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will likely continue this afternoon. Expect some
heavier periods of snow at least for the early part of the
afternoon with the areas of best lift and forcing. We could see
IFR conditions similar to earlier with these bands. This evening,
the first wave will have moved through with some gradual
improvement before the second wave arrives around midnight time
frame. Confidence with timing on this second round is a little on
the low end, but MVFR conditions are expected to remain in place
until after the forecast period. For longer term planning, check
back with the 00z and 06z TAF issuances for updates on second
round timing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KTOP 281801
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will likely continue this afternoon. Expect some
heavier periods of snow at least for the early part of the
afternoon with the areas of best lift and forcing. We could see
IFR conditions similar to earlier with these bands. This evening,
the first wave will have moved through with some gradual
improvement before the second wave arrives around midnight time
frame. Confidence with timing on this second round is a little on
the low end, but MVFR conditions are expected to remain in place
until after the forecast period. For longer term planning, check
back with the 00z and 06z TAF issuances for updates on second
round timing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281801
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MVFR conditions will likely continue this afternoon. Expect some
heavier periods of snow at least for the early part of the
afternoon with the areas of best lift and forcing. We could see
IFR conditions similar to earlier with these bands. This evening,
the first wave will have moved through with some gradual
improvement before the second wave arrives around midnight time
frame. Confidence with timing on this second round is a little on
the low end, but MVFR conditions are expected to remain in place
until after the forecast period. For longer term planning, check
back with the 00z and 06z TAF issuances for updates on second
round timing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KICT 281753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIKED EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TIMING...BUT
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIOR TO 00Z/6PM. THE
NAM/RAP AND IN A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 00Z. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE INCLUSIVE
OF THAT. AS EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY VS. GOING WITH A WARNING WHERE SOME
STORM TOTAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FELT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES AND THAT AS
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FORECASTER MENTIONED MOST OF THIS FIRST WAVE
WOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY OR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOCUSED IN A
DIFFERENT AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 281753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIKED EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TIMING...BUT
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIOR TO 00Z/6PM. THE
NAM/RAP AND IN A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 00Z. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE INCLUSIVE
OF THAT. AS EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY VS. GOING WITH A WARNING WHERE SOME
STORM TOTAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FELT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES AND THAT AS
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FORECASTER MENTIONED MOST OF THIS FIRST WAVE
WOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY OR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOCUSED IN A
DIFFERENT AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIKED EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TIMING...BUT
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIOR TO 00Z/6PM. THE
NAM/RAP AND IN A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 00Z. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE INCLUSIVE
OF THAT. AS EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY VS. GOING WITH A WARNING WHERE SOME
STORM TOTAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FELT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES AND THAT AS
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FORECASTER MENTIONED MOST OF THIS FIRST WAVE
WOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY OR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOCUSED IN A
DIFFERENT AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 281753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIKED EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TIMING...BUT
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIOR TO 00Z/6PM. THE
NAM/RAP AND IN A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 00Z. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE INCLUSIVE
OF THAT. AS EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY VS. GOING WITH A WARNING WHERE SOME
STORM TOTAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FELT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES AND THAT AS
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FORECASTER MENTIONED MOST OF THIS FIRST WAVE
WOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY OR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOCUSED IN A
DIFFERENT AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 281753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIKED EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TIMING...BUT
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIOR TO 00Z/6PM. THE
NAM/RAP AND IN A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 00Z. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE INCLUSIVE
OF THAT. AS EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY VS. GOING WITH A WARNING WHERE SOME
STORM TOTAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FELT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES AND THAT AS
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FORECASTER MENTIONED MOST OF THIS FIRST WAVE
WOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY OR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOCUSED IN A
DIFFERENT AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 281753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIKED EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TIMING...BUT
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIOR TO 00Z/6PM. THE
NAM/RAP AND IN A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 00Z. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE INCLUSIVE
OF THAT. AS EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY VS. GOING WITH A WARNING WHERE SOME
STORM TOTAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FELT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES AND THAT AS
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FORECASTER MENTIONED MOST OF THIS FIRST WAVE
WOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY OR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOCUSED IN A
DIFFERENT AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW IS CAUSING LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY CONCERNS...AS CEILINGS ARE NOT
OVERLY LOW AT THIS TIME. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KICT/KHUT AND KCNU. KRSL AND
KSLN WILL BE IMPACTED...BUT LESSER SO. THE NAM/RAP HAVE HAD THE
BEST HANDLE OF THE EVOLVING SITUATION AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING OF SNOW EXIT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN
STARTING BACK UP IN CENTRAL KANSAS IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND
POSSIBLY KICT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...SO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND
THE SNOW WHICH WILL FURTHER THE IMPACT ON AVIATION.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281700
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

KGLD...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
11KTS. BY 00Z TERMINAL SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH 08Z. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 15Z DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CIGS
WONT BE FAR AWAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A RISE IN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 07Z.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN EXPECTED
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
VICINITY. IF ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL
VIS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS WELL THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND NORTH WINDS JUST OVER
5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281700
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

KGLD...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
11KTS. BY 00Z TERMINAL SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH 08Z. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 15Z DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CIGS
WONT BE FAR AWAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A RISE IN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 07Z.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN EXPECTED
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
VICINITY. IF ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL
VIS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS WELL THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND NORTH WINDS JUST OVER
5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281700
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

KGLD...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
11KTS. BY 00Z TERMINAL SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH 08Z. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 15Z DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CIGS
WONT BE FAR AWAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A RISE IN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 07Z.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN EXPECTED
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
VICINITY. IF ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL
VIS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS WELL THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND NORTH WINDS JUST OVER
5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281700
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

KGLD...MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS IN LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 23Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
11KTS. BY 00Z TERMINAL SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 03Z BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH 08Z. AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
08Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. AFTER 15Z DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL AND SHOULD GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CIGS
WONT BE FAR AWAY. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER 10KTS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 20Z WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES A BIT AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A RISE IN CIGS JUST ABOVE MVFR RANGE FROM 21Z THROUGH 07Z.
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING AN EXPECTED
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE
VICINITY. IF ONE OF THESE SHOULD MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL
VIS LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AS WELL THROUGH 16Z. AFTER 16Z
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND NORTH WINDS JUST OVER
5KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KICT 281615
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIKED EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TIMING...BUT
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIOR TO 00Z/6PM. THE
NAM/RAP AND IN A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 00Z. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE INCLUSIVE
OF THAT. AS EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY VS. GOING WITH A WARNING WHERE SOME
STORM TOTAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FELT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES AND THAT AS
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FORECASTER MENTIONED MOST OF THIS FIRST WAVE
WOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY OR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOCUSED IN A
DIFFERENT AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INITIAL AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS
WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-2SM RANGE IN THE MORE INTENSE BANDS
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15-16Z. SOUTHERN/SE KS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE SNOW THE LONGEST. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK
FROM THE MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 281615
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIKED EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TIMING...BUT
INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY...PRIOR TO 00Z/6PM. THE
NAM/RAP AND IN A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS HAVE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 00Z. INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO BE INCLUSIVE
OF THAT. AS EARLIER FORECAST MENTIONED...LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW
TODAY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY VS. GOING WITH A WARNING WHERE SOME
STORM TOTAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS MAY BE HIT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FELT
THE MAJORITY OF THE TOTALS WOULD NOT EXCEED 6 INCHES AND THAT AS
THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FORECASTER MENTIONED MOST OF THIS FIRST WAVE
WOULD FALL DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SECONDARY WAVE IS EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY OR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND LIKELY FOCUSED IN A
DIFFERENT AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INITIAL AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS
WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-2SM RANGE IN THE MORE INTENSE BANDS
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15-16Z. SOUTHERN/SE KS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE SNOW THE LONGEST. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK
FROM THE MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281247
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
647 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INITIAL AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS
WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-2SM RANGE IN THE MORE INTENSE BANDS
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15-16Z. SOUTHERN/SE KS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE SNOW THE LONGEST. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK
FROM THE MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 281247
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
647 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INITIAL AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS
WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-2SM RANGE IN THE MORE INTENSE BANDS
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15-16Z. SOUTHERN/SE KS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE SNOW THE LONGEST. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK
FROM THE MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281247
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
647 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIP TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK WHICH IS RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
SNOW. WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN SNOW AFTER 16-17Z AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS WOULD PUT THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THIS MORNING FOR AREAS BORDERING OK AS THEY
STAY IN THE MODERATE SNOW A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN SNOW TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET STARTS TO IMPACT THE
REGION. SO THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TRIM POPS BACK THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INITIAL AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS
WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-2SM RANGE IN THE MORE INTENSE BANDS
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15-16Z. SOUTHERN/SE KS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE SNOW THE LONGEST. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK
FROM THE MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  70  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  60  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  90  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 / 100  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  80  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281214
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281214
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281214
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281214
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281214
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281214
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 511 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
HAS PROMPTED AN EARLY INCREASE IN POPS TO THESE AREAS. IS SHOWING
UP MORE STEADILY A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. HAVE ADJUSTED
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE THESE CHANGES...BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST STILL IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 281150
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Initial VFR stratus deck at 12Z as MVFR ceilings increase with the
light snow bands from the southwest. Light flurries are possible
for the next 2 hours before the low end MVFR conditions with
light to moderate snow arrives after 14Z and continues through
00Z. Mid level dry air coming in behind the system signals a lull
in snow for the first half of the evening. Potential for
redevelopment of light snow and IFR conditions after 06Z, with
some decent uncertainty in timing to include at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281150
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Initial VFR stratus deck at 12Z as MVFR ceilings increase with the
light snow bands from the southwest. Light flurries are possible
for the next 2 hours before the low end MVFR conditions with
light to moderate snow arrives after 14Z and continues through
00Z. Mid level dry air coming in behind the system signals a lull
in snow for the first half of the evening. Potential for
redevelopment of light snow and IFR conditions after 06Z, with
some decent uncertainty in timing to include at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KTOP 281150
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Initial VFR stratus deck at 12Z as MVFR ceilings increase with the
light snow bands from the southwest. Light flurries are possible
for the next 2 hours before the low end MVFR conditions with
light to moderate snow arrives after 14Z and continues through
00Z. Mid level dry air coming in behind the system signals a lull
in snow for the first half of the evening. Potential for
redevelopment of light snow and IFR conditions after 06Z, with
some decent uncertainty in timing to include at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281150
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
550 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 540 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

Initial VFR stratus deck at 12Z as MVFR ceilings increase with the
light snow bands from the southwest. Light flurries are possible
for the next 2 hours before the low end MVFR conditions with
light to moderate snow arrives after 14Z and continues through
00Z. Mid level dry air coming in behind the system signals a lull
in snow for the first half of the evening. Potential for
redevelopment of light snow and IFR conditions after 06Z, with
some decent uncertainty in timing to include at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KGLD 281148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 3-6SM IN SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC010 UP TO OVC045. WINDS SSW10-20KTS
BECOMING VARIABLE BY 03Z-06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 281141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW AND LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INITIAL AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS
WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-2SM RANGE IN THE MORE INTENSE BANDS
ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS. THIS AREA IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 15-16Z. SOUTHERN/SE KS
LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE SNOW THE LONGEST. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK
FROM THE MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE SNOW AND IFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADS THE
AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  23  32  21 / 100  80  60  10
HUTCHINSON      24  22  31  20 / 100  70  60  10
NEWTON          24  22  30  19 / 100  80  70  10
ELDORADO        25  23  32  21 / 100  80  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   26  24  33  22 / 100  80  60  10
RUSSELL         25  18  34  18 /  80  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      24  20  32  19 /  90  70  50  10
SALINA          25  20  33  20 / 100  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       24  21  31  19 / 100  80  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     27  25  34  24 / 100  90  60  10
CHANUTE         25  23  32  22 / 100  90  80  10
IOLA            25  23  32  21 / 100  90  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  24  33  23 / 100  90  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281139
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281139
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL PERSIST AT THAT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AGAIN AROUND OR AFTER 00Z. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 281104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A DISORGANIZED BROAD WARM ADVECTION PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND
850 MB THROUGH 700 AND ABOVE IN A FAVORED DENDRITIC  GROWTH ZONE ONCE
AGAIN. THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS STRONG  WARM ADVECTION INDUCED
LIFTING EPISODE WHICH SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AS THE MORNING  GOES
ONWARD, THE VERY HIGH  SNOW RATIOS OF THE LAST 24  PLUS HOURS WILL
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 15:1. EVEN WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
FORECAST QPF, SNOW AMOUNTS BASED ON THESE RATIOS SUPPORT WELL THE
MID TO HIGH END OF SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ONCE THE BETTER
LIFT ENDS AND MODELS END THE BETTER WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION, THE PATTERN OF CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION  SEEMS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUED PERIODS OF EITHER PERSISTENT FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TONIGHT, OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW. THE CONSENSUS FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
FOR TONIGHT IN THIS SUBTLE WAN PATTERN STILL SUGGEST PERHAPS AS
MUCH AS AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE OF SNOW IN THE
EXTREME CASE, AND TRACE AMOUNTS OTHERWISE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  40  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  40  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  30  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  30  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  30  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  30  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281025
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  60  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  60  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  40  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  50  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  60  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  50  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 281025
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  60  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  60  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  40  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  50  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  60  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  50  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 281025
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  60  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  60  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  40  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  50  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  60  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  50  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 281025
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  60  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  60  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  40  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  50  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  60  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  50  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 281025
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  60  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  60  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  40  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  50  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  60  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  50  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KTOP 280924
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Only minor adjustment to last TAF issuance. Still bring in
prevailing snow with lowering CIGS by the noon hour. May be able
to taper off late in the forecast period but too far out for
another group at this time.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to Noon CST
Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280924
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A series of vorticity maxima is noted rotating through the upper
jet from the central plains to the western CONUS early this
morning. First disturbance to bring light to occasionally moderate
snow today is lifting east over southeast CO. Radar imagery at 3
AM depicts bands of light snow beginning to develop eastward into
southern and central Kansas. With low temps this AM in the lower
teens, dewpoint depressions continue to rise in the single digits.

Increasing southerly flow from the southwest indicates mid level
isentropic lift will continue to increase this morning as the upper
trough approaches. Could see some light flurries in the next few
hours south of Interstate 70, before light to moderate snow bands
increase in coverage as they track eastward through the afternoon.
Latest high resolutions models along with the 00Z and 06Z runs of
the operational guidance are continuing to trend the better Q vector
convergence/mid level frontogenesis further south and east of the
CWA based on the track of wave. Overall confidence remains high for
much of the CWA to see periods of snow today. Uncertainty lies in
when snowfall comes to an end on the back side of the wave. The 4 KM
WRF solutions in conjunction with the GFS and NAM are pushing weak
subsidence further south into north central Kansas by early Saturday
evening. This would bring a lull in snowfall while upper level lift
and saturation is maintained through the column along and south of
Interstate 70. For this reason, made slight tweaks by lowering
chances after 6 PM for portions of north central Kansas, keeping
likely pops for most of the CWA.

Models are also having difficulty on redevelopment of snowfall and
the depth of a southward moving upper trough and cold front through
the northern plains. Consensus guidance redevelops light QPF amounts
with the GFS remaining the highest solution and the NAM being the
outlier and dry. As the wave enters the region after midnight, would
expect light snowfall redeveloping across areas along and south of
Interstate 70. This area may see another half to one inch by 6 AM
Sunday morning. In summary, snowfall amounts for today through early
Sunday afternoon were lowered with totals between 2 and 4 inches,
locally up to 5 inches. Locations near and south of Interstate 70
see the highest probability of totals closer to the 3 to 5 inch
range.

In terms of temperatures and winds, main change was to lower highs
today and lows tonight by a few degrees as the incoming wave is
consistent in the warm advection staying south of the CWA. Winds are
not expected to play a factor in hazards with this system, generally
around 10 mph from the south on Saturday, becoming light overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

For Sunday morning, confidence in one last frontogenetical band of
snow has diminished given the 00Z and 06Z runs of the NAM drying
mid levels out with no real vertical motion. The new ECMWF shows
some lingering QPF across east central KS through the morning in a
similar location to the GFS. However the GFS is a strong outlier
to the other solutions with its forcing and moisture. Because of
this have continued with POPs in the 60 to 80 percent range over
east central KS but have also backed off on snow accumulations
through the morning and continue tapering POPs down rather
quickly after noon. Models have trended further south with the
warm nose, which may be an indication of the overall southward
trend to the system. Therefore as long as there is ice in the top
of the cloud, precip should be in the form of snow. There are
still signs of conditions symmetric instability Sunday morning, so
there may still be local enhancements to the expected snowfall for
a brief period of time. Trended highs for Sunday down a degree or
two into the lower and mid 30s, especially over east central KS,
thinking there will be very limited insolation, weak cold air
advection and new snow on the ground.

Sunday night and Monday are expected to be dry for the most part
with no obvious shortwave or other organized forcing affecting the
area. The one thing to monitor however is the low level moisture
return progged by the GFS and ECMWF late Monday and Monday night.
Forecast soundings become saturated in the lowest couple KM by
Monday evening implying there is the potential for drizzle to form.
The forecast has a chance for rain Monday night thinking the
vertical motion from increasing vorticity advection would favor
rain rather than drizzle. Another thing to monitor is temps. At
this point, low level warm air advection along with increasing low
level dewpoints support temps generally rising through the night
keeping precip liquid. Have held onto a small sliver of mixed
precip near the NEB state line for when temps may briefly cool to
freezing.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night, models continue to show energy from
the southwest lifting out across the plains while a cold front
moves through early in the afternoon. Because of this there is a
chance for rain. Although there are signs from the models that a
dry slot will work its way into central KS. Because of this the
higher POPs are reserved for far eastern KS. The GFS hints at the
possibility for some weak surface based instability Tuesday
morning. Because of this and for collaboration with neighboring
offices, have introduced a slight chance for thunder southeast of
the turnpike. Think highs Tuesday will be early in the day with
temps dropping back into the 40s and upper 30s through the
afternoon due to strong cold air advection with the front.

There may be some lingering light snow Wednesday behind the front,
but in general expect diminishing chances as dry air with the
surface ridge continues to build south. By Thursday, the upper
trough axis finally moves east of the forecast area with
northwesterly flow aloft redeveloping. This should set up a quiet
period of weather for Thursday and Friday. Temps will again be
cold Wednesday and Wednesday night as the latest arctic surface
ridge moves over the area. DID not go as cold as the GFS would
have it since the ECMWF is not quite as strong with the high
pressure system. By the end of the week, the forecast area could
return to southerly return flow with warm air advecting in from
the southwest. With this in mind, have temps warming back into the
lower 50s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

Only minor adjustment to last TAF issuance. Still bring in
prevailing snow with lowering CIGS by the noon hour. May be able
to taper off late in the forecast period but too far out for
another group at this time.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to Noon CST
Sunday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KGLD 280920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CIGS REMAIN MVFR DURING
THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...FS



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CIGS REMAIN MVFR DURING
THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...FS



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CIGS REMAIN MVFR DURING
THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...FS



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS UNDER
MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SET UP TO OUR EAST
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP IS GIVING THE
AREA A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT...WHICH IS GIVING THE AREA WIND CHILL
READING IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. LIGHT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY...WITH MODELS ONLY CARRYING A
WEAK 700MB TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL
RIDGING GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS. FOR TODAY THOUGH...AS SYSTEM
PASSES THE AREA...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 20S WILL AFFORD THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR -SW...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT ACCUM TO BE OVER
S/SE ZONES...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AS IT
PASSES. FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS BRIEF BREAK EARLY ON AS
RIDGE PASSES OVER AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS IN FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACCUM. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARDS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND ON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION DURING THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL PUT MAIN PRECIP FOCUS OVER WESTERN AREA. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A BIT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE THAT WORKS OUT
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THRU THE TRI STATE REGION BEFORE EXITING
EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE KEY TO AMOUNT OF QPF POTENTIAL AND THUS LIGHT SNOW
FALL. A TRACK OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THE
CWA...BUT A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING MORE QPF INTO AREA
ON WRAP-AROUND CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES
SHOWING UP...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW AT BEST FOR NORTHERN
ZONES BASED ON EXPECTED TRACK. SLIGHT INCREASE IN EXPECTED TEMPS
OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS MONDAY...TO 20S TUESDAY. LACK OF CAA WORKING
INTO AREA BASED ON RIDGE MOVEMENT BEFORE ARRIVAL OF FINAL
SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT AIDS IN THIS SCENARIO.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THESE PERIODS...WITH
ACTIVE W-SW FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL SEEMS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS A
RESULT OF THE FROPA...WITH SOUTHERN CWA POSSIBLY A LITTLE WARMER IF
FRONT PASSAGE IS IN AFTERNOON INSTEAD OF MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THIS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...AND I COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON
GFS/ECMWF WINDS ALOFT. WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDED ON MIXING AND TIMING
OF PEAK PRESSURE RISES. OTHER CONCERN IN THESE PERIODS WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS WED MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
SO QUESTION WILL BE NIGHTTIME WINDS AND IMPACTS OF CLOUD COVER ON
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WORTH KEEPING MENTION IN HWO...BUT STILL
PRETTY FAR OUT.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK. LARGE SCALE RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND BUILD EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN PLAINS. RESULT WILL BE A MUCH MORE
STABLE/DRY PATTERN AND MODERATION IN TEMPS ALOFT ACROSS THE CWA.
WHILE WE COULD STILL HAVE COMPLICATIONS FROM SNOW PACK OVER PARTS OF
THE CWA...CONSIDERING THE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN PATTERN AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
FRIDAY (IF NOT EARLIER). I STUCK WITH CONSENSUS...BUT COULD ACTUALLY
SEE OUR CWA 3-5F WARMER BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
THAN CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DECREASE DUE TO LIGHT SNOW.
THE SNOW TAPERS OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT CIGS REMAIN MVFR DURING
THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/DR
AVIATION...FS



000
FXUS63 KICT 280909
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER 08-10Z ACROSS THE AREA
WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY AND PREVAILING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  25  36  22 /  90  70  60  10
HUTCHINSON      27  23  36  21 /  90  70  60  10
NEWTON          26  24  36  20 /  90  80  70  10
ELDORADO        28  25  36  22 /  90  80  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  26  39  23 /  90  60  60  10
RUSSELL         27  21  34  19 /  70  70  50  20
GREAT BEND      27  23  35  20 /  80  70  50  20
SALINA          28  23  34  21 /  80  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       27  23  35  20 /  90  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     31  29  39  25 /  90  80  60  10
CHANUTE         30  27  37  23 /  90  80  80  10
IOLA            29  27  36  22 / 100  80  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  28  39  24 /  90  80  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 280909
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS/TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER. THE
HIGHER SNOW TOTALS SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE SNOW INTENSITY WILL LESSEN FOR THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT WE COULD
SEE A RE-DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT
ALONG A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF CLOUD ICE BEING LOST ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS THE SNOW
COULD SWITCH OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE
BRIEF. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON MONDAY BUT VALUES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH A GOOD SURGE OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY YIELDING
DRIZZLE AS MID-LEVELS LOOK TOO DRY. LIFT AND MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
INCREASE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

WE SHOULD SEE A DECENT WARM UP ON TUESDAY BEFORE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ALSO
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL EXIST MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS
RICHER GULF MOISTURE AXIS WILL TARGET THAT AREA. IN ADDITION...COULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MUCH
COLDER AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT WITH UPPER SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD
IT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION UNLESS
SYSTEM CAN SLOW DOWN WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. COLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL BE BRIEF AS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AFTER 08-10Z ACROSS THE AREA
WITH IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY AND PREVAILING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  25  36  22 /  90  70  60  10
HUTCHINSON      27  23  36  21 /  90  70  60  10
NEWTON          26  24  36  20 /  90  80  70  10
ELDORADO        28  25  36  22 /  90  80  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  26  39  23 /  90  60  60  10
RUSSELL         27  21  34  19 /  70  70  50  20
GREAT BEND      27  23  35  20 /  80  70  50  20
SALINA          28  23  34  21 /  80  80  60  10
MCPHERSON       27  23  35  20 /  90  70  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     31  29  39  25 /  90  80  60  10
CHANUTE         30  27  37  23 /  90  80  80  10
IOLA            29  27  36  22 / 100  80  80  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  28  39  24 /  90  80  70  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
138 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY,
THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND WITH THE MID TO LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST, SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LIFT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE
OBSERVED. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND
AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES LOOK TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY REACHING TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN AND
HAVE A BETTER AGREEMENT OF TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  60  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  60  20  30
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  50  30  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  60  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  60  40  30
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  50  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
138 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY,
THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND WITH THE MID TO LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST, SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LIFT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE
OBSERVED. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND
AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES LOOK TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY REACHING TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN AND
HAVE A BETTER AGREEMENT OF TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  60  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  60  20  30
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  50  30  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  60  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  60  40  30
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  50  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
138 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY,
THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND WITH THE MID TO LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST, SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LIFT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE
OBSERVED. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND
AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES LOOK TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY REACHING TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN AND
HAVE A BETTER AGREEMENT OF TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  60  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  60  20  30
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  50  30  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  60  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  60  40  30
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  50  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
138 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY,
THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND WITH THE MID TO LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST, SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LIFT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THE
FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE
OBSERVED. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. IT WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH OCCASIONAL
BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN PLACE THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THESE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND
AROUND 40 DEGREES MONDAY.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING
WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PLACING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES LOOK TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY REACHING TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN AND
HAVE A BETTER AGREEMENT OF TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY
REBOUND INTO THE 40S THURSDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID TEENS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMIN