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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250557
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1157 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ULTIMATELY
REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
SATURDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND FINALLY THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONGER IMPULSE DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW. UNTIL THEN...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER 14Z AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OFF THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SOME STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND GLD DURING THAT TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE AND
PROBABILITY ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY WERE NOT PUT IN AS A
PREVAILING CONDITION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART






000
FXUS63 KGLD 250557
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1157 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ULTIMATELY
REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
SATURDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND FINALLY THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONGER IMPULSE DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW. UNTIL THEN...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTH NORTHWEST AFTER 14Z AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OFF THE ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. SOME STORMS ARE
EXPECTED AROUND GLD DURING THAT TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE AND
PROBABILITY ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY WERE NOT PUT IN AS A
PREVAILING CONDITION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART






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000
FXUS63 KTOP 250456
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Upper flow pattern this afternoon continues to show the region
influenced by upper ridging while another embedded shortwave trough
shifts eastward from CO into NE.  A stronger upper trough tracking
eastward over the Pacific Northwest will alleviate this persistent
pattern later this evening.

Main forecast concern in the short term period is the heat returning
for tomorrow. Surface high pressure currently to our east will exit
the region tonight as a surface trough deepens east over the high
plains. High clouds increase over north central areas while a low
level jet increases up to 50 kts at 850 MB. The boundary layer
should stay fairly mixed through the evening as an h85 thermal axis
reaches 27C over north central KS. Low temps were raised a few
degrees into the mid and upper 70s, while low 70s are seen
elsewhere. Any convection that is able to develop over NE should
remain north and west of the CWA.

Mid level flow becomes zonal on Friday due to the passing upper wave. In
its wake, a cold front will dive southward through the plains. A
pretty strong capping inversion at h85 should preclude any
convection over north central KS during the late afternoon. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front maximizes dewpoints from the mid 60s to
low 70s across east central KS during peak heating hours. Combined
with strong downward mixing of the 27-29C thermal axis over the CWA,
expect highs to peak in the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat index
readings are expected to reach near or at advisory criteria in the
103 to 109 degree range. A heat advisory has been issued for
tomorrow afternoon. Strong southerly winds may gust in excess of 30
mph during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For Friday night through Saturday night, a lot will depend on the
timing and location of a cold front progged to move through the
area. In short it appears as the the NAM solution is a fast outlier
in bringing the front into east central KS by Saturday afternoon.
With this in mind the forecast follows the consensus of having the
boundary closer to the NEB state line through Saturday afternoon.
Models show that there may end up being a decent elevated mixed
layer (EML) at least ahead of the boundary capping the boundary
layer from convection within the warm sector. Since there does not
appear to be a strong signal of forcing from the models, decided
to keep a slight chance going Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night as the boundary moves across the area. The main adjustment
to the previous forecast was to trend temps warmer given a slower
frontal progression and 850 temps from the models suggest triple
digit heat is probable along and south of the KS river. So it is
conceivable that we will need a heat advisory through Saturday as
well. However confidence in the frontal timing casts enough doubt
that felt is prudent to hold off an advisory and see what later
model solutions show.

Cooler weather should move into the area by the end of the
weekend, however the new ECMWF and GFS are a little slower in
bringing the cooler low level temps south and wait until Sunday
night and Monday for the stronger cold air advection. Models
indicate a weak shortwave should round the upper ridge to the west
and move through the central plains Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. Therefore have some 20 to 30 percent chance POPs going
with better chances likely across central KS.

Kept the forecast dry after Wednesday in spite of the ECMWF
developing QPF over the area. With broad surface ridging over
eastern KS through the end of the period, there is not expected to
be much in the way of moisture advection. Additionally there is
some uncertainty in the thermal profile from the ECMWF given its
limited vertical resolution so think it may be over doing diurnal
convection. Wont say precip chances are nil since there could be
some weak waves within the flow aloft. Temps should remain mild
through the end of the forecast with the upper ridge remaining
over the southwestern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest surface
winds will increase to 14 to 18 KTS with gusts of 22 to 28 KTS
after 13Z FRI. The winds will diminish a bit after sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 250456
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Upper flow pattern this afternoon continues to show the region
influenced by upper ridging while another embedded shortwave trough
shifts eastward from CO into NE.  A stronger upper trough tracking
eastward over the Pacific Northwest will alleviate this persistent
pattern later this evening.

Main forecast concern in the short term period is the heat returning
for tomorrow. Surface high pressure currently to our east will exit
the region tonight as a surface trough deepens east over the high
plains. High clouds increase over north central areas while a low
level jet increases up to 50 kts at 850 MB. The boundary layer
should stay fairly mixed through the evening as an h85 thermal axis
reaches 27C over north central KS. Low temps were raised a few
degrees into the mid and upper 70s, while low 70s are seen
elsewhere. Any convection that is able to develop over NE should
remain north and west of the CWA.

Mid level flow becomes zonal on Friday due to the passing upper wave. In
its wake, a cold front will dive southward through the plains. A
pretty strong capping inversion at h85 should preclude any
convection over north central KS during the late afternoon. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front maximizes dewpoints from the mid 60s to
low 70s across east central KS during peak heating hours. Combined
with strong downward mixing of the 27-29C thermal axis over the CWA,
expect highs to peak in the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat index
readings are expected to reach near or at advisory criteria in the
103 to 109 degree range. A heat advisory has been issued for
tomorrow afternoon. Strong southerly winds may gust in excess of 30
mph during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For Friday night through Saturday night, a lot will depend on the
timing and location of a cold front progged to move through the
area. In short it appears as the the NAM solution is a fast outlier
in bringing the front into east central KS by Saturday afternoon.
With this in mind the forecast follows the consensus of having the
boundary closer to the NEB state line through Saturday afternoon.
Models show that there may end up being a decent elevated mixed
layer (EML) at least ahead of the boundary capping the boundary
layer from convection within the warm sector. Since there does not
appear to be a strong signal of forcing from the models, decided
to keep a slight chance going Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night as the boundary moves across the area. The main adjustment
to the previous forecast was to trend temps warmer given a slower
frontal progression and 850 temps from the models suggest triple
digit heat is probable along and south of the KS river. So it is
conceivable that we will need a heat advisory through Saturday as
well. However confidence in the frontal timing casts enough doubt
that felt is prudent to hold off an advisory and see what later
model solutions show.

Cooler weather should move into the area by the end of the
weekend, however the new ECMWF and GFS are a little slower in
bringing the cooler low level temps south and wait until Sunday
night and Monday for the stronger cold air advection. Models
indicate a weak shortwave should round the upper ridge to the west
and move through the central plains Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. Therefore have some 20 to 30 percent chance POPs going
with better chances likely across central KS.

Kept the forecast dry after Wednesday in spite of the ECMWF
developing QPF over the area. With broad surface ridging over
eastern KS through the end of the period, there is not expected to
be much in the way of moisture advection. Additionally there is
some uncertainty in the thermal profile from the ECMWF given its
limited vertical resolution so think it may be over doing diurnal
convection. Wont say precip chances are nil since there could be
some weak waves within the flow aloft. Temps should remain mild
through the end of the forecast with the upper ridge remaining
over the southwestern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest surface
winds will increase to 14 to 18 KTS with gusts of 22 to 28 KTS
after 13Z FRI. The winds will diminish a bit after sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 250428
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY...AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A HOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN INITIAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIPPLES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK SLIM...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STRETCH OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW LATE JULY CLIMO.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 50 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXY OVERNIGHT WEST OF I-135. GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY THERE...WHILE SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE DECOUPLED.
DEEP MIXED LAYER (SURFACE-700 MB) ON FRIDAY EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30-34 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          75 101  76 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         75 103  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      76 103  74 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          75 105  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 250428
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY...AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A HOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN INITIAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIPPLES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK SLIM...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STRETCH OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW LATE JULY CLIMO.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 50 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXY OVERNIGHT WEST OF I-135. GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY THERE...WHILE SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE DECOUPLED.
DEEP MIXED LAYER (SURFACE-700 MB) ON FRIDAY EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30-34 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          75 101  76 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         75 103  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      76 103  74 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          75 105  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 242347
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ULTIMATELY
REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
SATURDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND FINALLY THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONGER IMPULSE DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW. UNTIL THEN...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A COLDFRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH THROUGH THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 10-12Z...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 14Z-18Z. BY 21Z...THE
GUSTINESS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART






000
FXUS63 KGLD 242347
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ULTIMATELY
REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
SATURDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND FINALLY THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONGER IMPULSE DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW. UNTIL THEN...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A COLDFRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH THROUGH THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 10-12Z...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 14Z-18Z. BY 21Z...THE
GUSTINESS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART






000
FXUS63 KGLD 242347
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ULTIMATELY
REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
SATURDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND FINALLY THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONGER IMPULSE DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW. UNTIL THEN...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A COLDFRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH THROUGH THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 10-12Z...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 14Z-18Z. BY 21Z...THE
GUSTINESS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART






000
FXUS63 KGLD 242347
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ULTIMATELY
REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
SATURDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND FINALLY THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONGER IMPULSE DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW. UNTIL THEN...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THIS EVENING. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A COLDFRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE TROUGH THROUGH THROUGH THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 10-12Z...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 14Z-18Z. BY 21Z...THE
GUSTINESS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART






000
FXUS63 KTOP 242332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Upper flow pattern this afternoon continues to show the region
influenced by upper ridging while another embedded shortwave trough
shifts eastward from CO into NE.  A stronger upper trough tracking
eastward over the Pacific Northwest will alleviate this persistent
pattern later this evening.

Main forecast concern in the short term period is the heat returning
for tomorrow. Surface high pressure currently to our east will exit
the region tonight as a surface trough deepens east over the high
plains. High clouds increase over north central areas while a low
level jet increases up to 50 kts at 850 MB. The boundary layer
should stay fairly mixed through the evening as an h85 thermal axis
reaches 27C over north central KS. Low temps were raised a few
degrees into the mid and upper 70s, while low 70s are seen
elsewhere. Any convection that is able to develop over NE should
remain north and west of the CWA.

Mid level flow becomes zonal on Friday due to the passing upper wave. In
its wake, a cold front will dive southward through the plains. A
pretty strong capping inversion at h85 should preclude any
convection over north central KS during the late afternoon. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front maximizes dewpoints from the mid 60s to
low 70s across east central KS during peak heating hours. Combined
with strong downward mixing of the 27-29C thermal axis over the CWA,
expect highs to peak in the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat index
readings are expected to reach near or at advisory criteria in the
103 to 109 degree range. A heat advisory has been issued for
tomorrow afternoon. Strong southerly winds may gust in excess of 30
mph during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For Friday night through Saturday night, a lot will depend on the
timing and location of a cold front progged to move through the
area. In short it appears as the the NAM solution is a fast outlier
in bringing the front into east central KS by Saturday afternoon.
With this in mind the forecast follows the consensus of having the
boundary closer to the NEB state line through Saturday afternoon.
Models show that there may end up being a decent elevated mixed
layer (EML) at least ahead of the boundary capping the boundary
layer from convection within the warm sector. Since there does not
appear to be a strong signal of forcing from the models, decided
to keep a slight chance going Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night as the boundary moves across the area. The main adjustment
to the previous forecast was to trend temps warmer given a slower
frontal progression and 850 temps from the models suggest triple
digit heat is probable along and south of the KS river. So it is
conceivable that we will need a heat advisory through Saturday as
well. However confidence in the frontal timing casts enough doubt
that felt is prudent to hold off an advisory and see what later
model solutions show.

Cooler weather should move into the area by the end of the
weekend, however the new ECMWF and GFS are a little slower in
bringing the cooler low level temps south and wait until Sunday
night and Monday for the stronger cold air advection. Models
indicate a weak shortwave should round the upper ridge to the west
and move through the central plains Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. Therefore have some 20 to 30 percent chance POPs going
with better chances likely across central KS.

Kept the forecast dry after Wednesday in spite of the ECMWF
developing QPF over the area. With broad surface ridging over
eastern KS through the end of the period, there is not expected to
be much in the way of moisture advection. Additionally there is
some uncertainty in the thermal profile from the ECMWF given its
limited vertical resolution so think it may be over doing diurnal
convection. Wont say precip chances are nil since there could be
some weak waves within the flow aloft. Temps should remain mild
through the end of the forecast with the upper ridge remaining
over the southwestern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds will become
southwest after sunrise and increase to 14 to 18 KTS with gusts of
24 to 28 KTS through the day Friday. May see some moderate
windshear late tonight as 925 MB winds increase to 45 KTS from the
southwest between 8Z and 13Z FRI

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 242332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Upper flow pattern this afternoon continues to show the region
influenced by upper ridging while another embedded shortwave trough
shifts eastward from CO into NE.  A stronger upper trough tracking
eastward over the Pacific Northwest will alleviate this persistent
pattern later this evening.

Main forecast concern in the short term period is the heat returning
for tomorrow. Surface high pressure currently to our east will exit
the region tonight as a surface trough deepens east over the high
plains. High clouds increase over north central areas while a low
level jet increases up to 50 kts at 850 MB. The boundary layer
should stay fairly mixed through the evening as an h85 thermal axis
reaches 27C over north central KS. Low temps were raised a few
degrees into the mid and upper 70s, while low 70s are seen
elsewhere. Any convection that is able to develop over NE should
remain north and west of the CWA.

Mid level flow becomes zonal on Friday due to the passing upper wave. In
its wake, a cold front will dive southward through the plains. A
pretty strong capping inversion at h85 should preclude any
convection over north central KS during the late afternoon. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front maximizes dewpoints from the mid 60s to
low 70s across east central KS during peak heating hours. Combined
with strong downward mixing of the 27-29C thermal axis over the CWA,
expect highs to peak in the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat index
readings are expected to reach near or at advisory criteria in the
103 to 109 degree range. A heat advisory has been issued for
tomorrow afternoon. Strong southerly winds may gust in excess of 30
mph during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For Friday night through Saturday night, a lot will depend on the
timing and location of a cold front progged to move through the
area. In short it appears as the the NAM solution is a fast outlier
in bringing the front into east central KS by Saturday afternoon.
With this in mind the forecast follows the consensus of having the
boundary closer to the NEB state line through Saturday afternoon.
Models show that there may end up being a decent elevated mixed
layer (EML) at least ahead of the boundary capping the boundary
layer from convection within the warm sector. Since there does not
appear to be a strong signal of forcing from the models, decided
to keep a slight chance going Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night as the boundary moves across the area. The main adjustment
to the previous forecast was to trend temps warmer given a slower
frontal progression and 850 temps from the models suggest triple
digit heat is probable along and south of the KS river. So it is
conceivable that we will need a heat advisory through Saturday as
well. However confidence in the frontal timing casts enough doubt
that felt is prudent to hold off an advisory and see what later
model solutions show.

Cooler weather should move into the area by the end of the
weekend, however the new ECMWF and GFS are a little slower in
bringing the cooler low level temps south and wait until Sunday
night and Monday for the stronger cold air advection. Models
indicate a weak shortwave should round the upper ridge to the west
and move through the central plains Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. Therefore have some 20 to 30 percent chance POPs going
with better chances likely across central KS.

Kept the forecast dry after Wednesday in spite of the ECMWF
developing QPF over the area. With broad surface ridging over
eastern KS through the end of the period, there is not expected to
be much in the way of moisture advection. Additionally there is
some uncertainty in the thermal profile from the ECMWF given its
limited vertical resolution so think it may be over doing diurnal
convection. Wont say precip chances are nil since there could be
some weak waves within the flow aloft. Temps should remain mild
through the end of the forecast with the upper ridge remaining
over the southwestern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds will become
southwest after sunrise and increase to 14 to 18 KTS with gusts of
24 to 28 KTS through the day Friday. May see some moderate
windshear late tonight as 925 MB winds increase to 45 KTS from the
southwest between 8Z and 13Z FRI

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KICT 242314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY...AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A HOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN INITIAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIPPLES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK SLIM...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STRETCH OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW LATE JULY CLIMO.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 50 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXY OVERNIGHT WEST OF I-135. GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY THERE...WHILE SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE DECOUPLED.
DEEP MIXED LAYER (SURFACE-700 MB) ON FRIDAY EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          75 101  76 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         75 103  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      76 103  74 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          75 105  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 242314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
614 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY...AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A HOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN INITIAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIPPLES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK SLIM...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STRETCH OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW LATE JULY CLIMO.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A 50 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXY OVERNIGHT WEST OF I-135. GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY THERE...WHILE SOUTHEAST KS WILL BE DECOUPLED.
DEEP MIXED LAYER (SURFACE-700 MB) ON FRIDAY EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
TO 30 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A FEW
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          75 101  76 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         75 103  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      76 103  74 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          75 105  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 242300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The inherited hourly apparent temperature grids have values at heat
advisory criteria. For consistency, have issued a heat advisory for
tomorrow for Stafford, Pratt, and Barber counties. Dewpoints are expected
to mix to lower values farther west, so meeting heat advisory criteria
(105F apparent temp) looks more unlikely. Farther north towards Hays,
dewpoints are expected to mix out as well in the SSW/SW downslope plume,
but this will have to be watched by the upcoming mid shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A strong shortwave trough progressing from the Pacific Northwest
into southwestern Canada today will help push a weak cold front
into western Kansas by Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough over the central plains and resultant 15 kt
southwesterly winds will lead to a warm night, with lows mainly
in the 70s. There is a small chance of thunderstorms along the
front from Dodge City north and west by mid-afternoon Friday and
persisting into the evening. Given the high dewpoint depressions,
strong wind gusts may accompany the storms. Temperatures ought to
be warmer Friday given the surface winds veering to southwest,
allowing for low level drying progressing farther east.
Temperatures in central Kansas near Interstate 70 will depend on
the location of the front, with Hays reaching anywhere from 99 to
105F. South of the front, highs should warm nicely. The NAM 2m
temps at 21z show 102-106F readings, but these are probably a few
degrees too warm since this model has displayed a warm bias all
summer due to all of the wetness and vegetation. Most places ought
to reach to between 99F and 103F before cloud cover increases in
association with the afternoon thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived
presence.

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. There could be some cirriform
blow off from convection farther upstream through the overnight. Additional
convection is possible tomorrow evening, however, confidence is not
high enough to put cb/tsra/vcts groups in for now. Will defer to later
TAF issuances since we are obviously outside the 6 hr critical TAF
pd and towards the end of the 24 hour regular pd. Should be pretty isolated
though. Southerly winds veering southwesterly and eventually northwest/northerly
by tomorrow afternoon. Magnitudes 12-25 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 101  73 101 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  75 101  71 100 /   0  20  20  10
EHA  74 102  71 100 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  74 103  72 102 /   0  20  20  10
HYS  76 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
P28  72 104  75 102 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ066-081-090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Sugden






000
FXUS63 KDDC 242300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The inherited hourly apparent temperature grids have values at heat
advisory criteria. For consistency, have issued a heat advisory for
tomorrow for Stafford, Pratt, and Barber counties. Dewpoints are expected
to mix to lower values farther west, so meeting heat advisory criteria
(105F apparent temp) looks more unlikely. Farther north towards Hays,
dewpoints are expected to mix out as well in the SSW/SW downslope plume,
but this will have to be watched by the upcoming mid shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A strong shortwave trough progressing from the Pacific Northwest
into southwestern Canada today will help push a weak cold front
into western Kansas by Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough over the central plains and resultant 15 kt
southwesterly winds will lead to a warm night, with lows mainly
in the 70s. There is a small chance of thunderstorms along the
front from Dodge City north and west by mid-afternoon Friday and
persisting into the evening. Given the high dewpoint depressions,
strong wind gusts may accompany the storms. Temperatures ought to
be warmer Friday given the surface winds veering to southwest,
allowing for low level drying progressing farther east.
Temperatures in central Kansas near Interstate 70 will depend on
the location of the front, with Hays reaching anywhere from 99 to
105F. South of the front, highs should warm nicely. The NAM 2m
temps at 21z show 102-106F readings, but these are probably a few
degrees too warm since this model has displayed a warm bias all
summer due to all of the wetness and vegetation. Most places ought
to reach to between 99F and 103F before cloud cover increases in
association with the afternoon thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived
presence.

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. There could be some cirriform
blow off from convection farther upstream through the overnight. Additional
convection is possible tomorrow evening, however, confidence is not
high enough to put cb/tsra/vcts groups in for now. Will defer to later
TAF issuances since we are obviously outside the 6 hr critical TAF
pd and towards the end of the 24 hour regular pd. Should be pretty isolated
though. Southerly winds veering southwesterly and eventually northwest/northerly
by tomorrow afternoon. Magnitudes 12-25 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 101  73 101 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  75 101  71 100 /   0  20  20  10
EHA  74 102  71 100 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  74 103  72 102 /   0  20  20  10
HYS  76 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
P28  72 104  75 102 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ066-081-090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Sugden







000
FXUS63 KDDC 242225
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update for issuance of heat advisory...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The inherited hourly apparent temperature grids have values at heat
advisory criteria. For consistency, have issued a heat advisory for
tomorrow for Stafford, Pratt, and Barber counties. Dewpoints are expected
to mix to lower values farther west, so meeting heat advisory criteria
(105F apparent temp) looks more unlikely. Farther north towards Hays,
dewpoints are expected to mix out as well in the SSW/SW downslope plume,
but this will have to be watched by the upcoming mid shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A strong shortwave trough progressing from the Pacific Northwest
into southwestern Canada today will help push a weak cold front
into western Kansas by Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough over the central plains and resultant 15 kt
southwesterly winds will lead to a warm night, with lows mainly
in the 70s. There is a small chance of thunderstorms along the
front from Dodge City north and west by mid-afternoon Friday and
persisting into the evening. Given the high dewpoint depressions,
strong wind gusts may accompany the storms. Temperatures ought to
be warmer Friday given the surface winds veering to southwest,
allowing for low level drying progressing farther east.
Temperatures in central Kansas near Interstate 70 will depend on
the location of the front, with Hays reaching anywhere from 99 to
105F. South of the front, highs should warm nicely. The NAM 2m
temps at 21z show 102-106F readings, but these are probably a few
degrees too warm since this model has displayed a warm bias all
summer due to all of the wetness and vegetation. Most places ought
to reach to between 99F and 103F before cloud cover increases in
association with the afternoon thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived
presence.

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 101  73 101 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  75 101  71 100 /   0  20  20  10
EHA  74 102  71 100 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  74 103  72 102 /   0  20  20  10
HYS  76 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
P28  72 104  75 102 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ066-081-090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch






000
FXUS63 KDDC 242225
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update for issuance of heat advisory...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The inherited hourly apparent temperature grids have values at heat
advisory criteria. For consistency, have issued a heat advisory for
tomorrow for Stafford, Pratt, and Barber counties. Dewpoints are expected
to mix to lower values farther west, so meeting heat advisory criteria
(105F apparent temp) looks more unlikely. Farther north towards Hays,
dewpoints are expected to mix out as well in the SSW/SW downslope plume,
but this will have to be watched by the upcoming mid shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A strong shortwave trough progressing from the Pacific Northwest
into southwestern Canada today will help push a weak cold front
into western Kansas by Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough over the central plains and resultant 15 kt
southwesterly winds will lead to a warm night, with lows mainly
in the 70s. There is a small chance of thunderstorms along the
front from Dodge City north and west by mid-afternoon Friday and
persisting into the evening. Given the high dewpoint depressions,
strong wind gusts may accompany the storms. Temperatures ought to
be warmer Friday given the surface winds veering to southwest,
allowing for low level drying progressing farther east.
Temperatures in central Kansas near Interstate 70 will depend on
the location of the front, with Hays reaching anywhere from 99 to
105F. South of the front, highs should warm nicely. The NAM 2m
temps at 21z show 102-106F readings, but these are probably a few
degrees too warm since this model has displayed a warm bias all
summer due to all of the wetness and vegetation. Most places ought
to reach to between 99F and 103F before cloud cover increases in
association with the afternoon thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived
presence.

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 101  73 101 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  75 101  71 100 /   0  20  20  10
EHA  74 102  71 100 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  74 103  72 102 /   0  20  20  10
HYS  76 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
P28  72 104  75 102 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ066-081-090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 242047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A strong shortwave trough progressing from the Pacific Northwest
into southwestern Canada today will help push a weak cold front
into western Kansas by Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough over the central plains and resultant 15 kt
southwesterly winds will lead to a warm night, with lows mainly
in the 70s. There is a small chance of thunderstorms along the
front from Dodge City north and west by mid-afternoon Friday and
persisting into the evening. Given the high dewpoint depressions,
strong wind gusts may accompany the storms. Temperatures ought to
be warmer Friday given the surface winds veering to southwest,
allowing for low level drying progressing farther east.
Temperatures in central Kansas near Interstate 70 will depend on
the location of the front, with Hays reaching anywhere from 99 to
105F. South of the front, highs should warm nicely. The NAM 2m
temps at 21z show 102-106F readings, but these are probably a few
degrees too warm since this model has displayed a warm bias all
summer due to all of the wetness and vegetation. Most places ought
to reach to between 99F and 103F before cloud cover increases in
association with the afternoon thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived
presence.

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  75 101  71 100 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  72 102  71 100 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  74 103  72 102 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  77 102  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  75 104  75 102 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 242047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A strong shortwave trough progressing from the Pacific Northwest
into southwestern Canada today will help push a weak cold front
into western Kansas by Friday afternoon. Ahead of the front, a
surface trough over the central plains and resultant 15 kt
southwesterly winds will lead to a warm night, with lows mainly
in the 70s. There is a small chance of thunderstorms along the
front from Dodge City north and west by mid-afternoon Friday and
persisting into the evening. Given the high dewpoint depressions,
strong wind gusts may accompany the storms. Temperatures ought to
be warmer Friday given the surface winds veering to southwest,
allowing for low level drying progressing farther east.
Temperatures in central Kansas near Interstate 70 will depend on
the location of the front, with Hays reaching anywhere from 99 to
105F. South of the front, highs should warm nicely. The NAM 2m
temps at 21z show 102-106F readings, but these are probably a few
degrees too warm since this model has displayed a warm bias all
summer due to all of the wetness and vegetation. Most places ought
to reach to between 99F and 103F before cloud cover increases in
association with the afternoon thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived
presence.

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  75 101  71 100 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  72 102  71 100 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  74 103  72 102 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  77 102  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  75 104  75 102 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch






000
FXUS63 KGLD 242040
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ULTIMATELY
REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
SATURDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND FINALLY THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONGER IMPULSE DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW. UNTIL THEN...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS AT MCK INCREASING BY
20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AREA AFTER 13Z...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JRM








000
FXUS63 KGLD 242040
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE UPCOMING
PATTERN CHANGE. UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN OUT AND ULTIMATELY
REPOSITION ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEK. OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO AN
INCREASINGLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RESPONSE WILL BE RIDGING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
SATURDAY DROPPING TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND FINALLY THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 80S TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE IN THE TUE-WED TIME
FRAME WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A STRONGER IMPULSE DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW. UNTIL THEN...BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS AT MCK INCREASING BY
20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AREA AFTER 13Z...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JRM







000
FXUS63 KDDC 241953
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated for the long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived
presence.

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  75 103  71 100 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  72 102  71 100 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  74 102  72 102 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  78 104  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  75 103  75 102 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 241953
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated for the long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Saturday night will still be warm as the southerly flow will exist
across our southern zones, and an east flow at the surface will
exist across the northern half.  Saturday afternoon surface
temperatures will rise to the 100F degree mark in the Hays to
Syracuse areas, the 101 to 102F range in the Larned to Dodge City to
Elkhart areas, and the 102 to 103F range in the Liberal to
Medicine Lodge areas.  A lee side trough is sure to form and move
into extreme western Kansas during Saturday afternoon. There will
be 20 percent chances for thunderstorms in our western 1 tier of
counties next to the Colorado border Saturday afternoon and evening.
Overnight Saturday night, the surface trough will get pushed a
little farther east, and an upper level wave will swoop through in
the northwest flow aloft. Pops in the west along the Colorado
border will increase to 30 to 40 percent Saturday night, with
lower 20 percent Pops in our eastern counties.  With clouds and
precipitation around, highs on Sunday will lower into the 90s, with near
90F degrees in the I-70 corridor, and perhaps mid 90s in the
Coldwater and Pratt areas.  Sunday should still be warm enough at
the surface to generate some scattered storms, especially in the
west near Syracuse and Elkhart, close to the surface trough.

On Monday, the upper high pressure will be over west Texas, with a
well established northwest flow aloft across the plains.  A warm
front will nudge north into our southwestern counties, and there
will be 20 to 30 percent chances for afternoon thunderstorms Monday.
Monday should start a cooling trend, with highs in the mid to
upper 80s.  Tuesday will see another weak cold front come south
through the western plains, and highs on Tuesday should only reach
near 81F degrees in our north and range to the 87F degrees in the
Elkhart area.  Wednesday may the coolest day of the week, as the
cold air mass will be sinking south through the plains. A
whopping 81F degrees is forecast a high on Wednesday for Dodge
City!  The upper high pressure will begin building back to the
northeast on Thursday, and another warm up may show a short lived
presence.

Minimum temperatures will go through a similar cool down, but
generally be in the mid 60s through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76 101  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  75 103  71 100 /   0  10  10  10
EHA  72 102  71 100 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  74 102  72 102 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  78 104  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  75 103  75 102 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 241945
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Upper flow pattern this afternoon continues to show the region
influenced by upper ridging while another embedded shortwave trough
shifts eastward from CO into NE.  A stronger upper trough tracking
eastward over the Pacific Northwest will alleviate this persistent
pattern later this evening.

Main forecast concern in the short term period is the heat returning
for tomorrow. Surface high pressure currently to our east will exit
the region tonight as a surface trough deepens east over the high
plains. High clouds increase over north central areas while a low
level jet increases up to 50 kts at 850 MB. The boundary layer
should stay fairly mixed through the evening as an h85 thermal axis
reaches 27C over north central KS. Low temps were raised a few
degrees into the mid and upper 70s, while low 70s are seen
elsewhere. Any convection that is able to develop over NE should
remain north and west of the CWA.

Mid level flow becomes zonal on Friday due to the passing upper wave. In
its wake, a cold front will dive southward through the plains. A
pretty strong capping inversion at h85 should preclude any
convection over north central KS during the late afternoon. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front maximizes dewpoints from the mid 60s to
low 70s across east central KS during peak heating hours. Combined
with strong downward mixing of the 27-29C thermal axis over the CWA,
expect highs to peak in the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat index
readings are expected to reach near or at advisory criteria in the
103 to 109 degree range. A heat advisory has been issued for
tomorrow afternoon. Strong southerly winds may gust in excess of 30
mph during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For Friday night through Saturday night, a lot will depend on the
timing and location of a cold front progged to move through the
area. In short it appears as the the NAM solution is a fast outlier
in bringing the front into east central KS by Saturday afternoon.
With this in mind the forecast follows the consensus of having the
boundary closer to the NEB state line through Saturday afternoon.
Models show that there may end up being a decent elevated mixed
layer (EML) at least ahead of the boundary capping the boundary
layer from convection within the warm sector. Since there does not
appear to be a strong signal of forcing from the models, decided
to keep a slight chance going Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night as the boundary moves across the area. The main adjustment
to the previous forecast was to trend temps warmer given a slower
frontal progression and 850 temps from the models suggest triple
digit heat is probable along and south of the KS river. So it is
conceivable that we will need a heat advisory through Saturday as
well. However confidence in the frontal timing casts enough doubt
that felt is prudent to hold off an advisory and see what later
model solutions show.

Cooler weather should move into the area by the end of the
weekend, however the new ECMWF and GFS are a little slower in
bringing the cooler low level temps south and wait until Sunday
night and Monday for the stronger cold air advection. Models
indicate a weak shortwave should round the upper ridge to the west
and move through the central plains Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. Therefore have some 20 to 30 percent chance POPs going
with better chances likely across central KS.

Kept the forecast dry after Wednesday in spite of the ECMWF
developing QPF over the area. With broad surface ridging over
eastern KS through the end of the period, there is not expected to
be much in the way of moisture advection. Additionally there is
some uncertainty in the thermal profile from the ECMWF given its
limited vertical resolution so think it may be over doing diurnal
convection. Wont say precip chances are nil since there could be
some weak waves within the flow aloft. Temps should remain mild
through the end of the forecast with the upper ridge remaining
over the southwestern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR prevails for KTOP/KMHK/KFOE as southeasterly winds above 10
kts through the afternoon may only fall just below 10 kts
overnight as a deepening surface trough shifts eastward. Winds
veer to the south 08-10Z as winds increase between 10 and 13 kts
sustained. Higher speeds with gusts are possible near the end of
the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen





000
FXUS63 KTOP 241945
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Upper flow pattern this afternoon continues to show the region
influenced by upper ridging while another embedded shortwave trough
shifts eastward from CO into NE.  A stronger upper trough tracking
eastward over the Pacific Northwest will alleviate this persistent
pattern later this evening.

Main forecast concern in the short term period is the heat returning
for tomorrow. Surface high pressure currently to our east will exit
the region tonight as a surface trough deepens east over the high
plains. High clouds increase over north central areas while a low
level jet increases up to 50 kts at 850 MB. The boundary layer
should stay fairly mixed through the evening as an h85 thermal axis
reaches 27C over north central KS. Low temps were raised a few
degrees into the mid and upper 70s, while low 70s are seen
elsewhere. Any convection that is able to develop over NE should
remain north and west of the CWA.

Mid level flow becomes zonal on Friday due to the passing upper wave. In
its wake, a cold front will dive southward through the plains. A
pretty strong capping inversion at h85 should preclude any
convection over north central KS during the late afternoon. Moisture
pooling ahead of the front maximizes dewpoints from the mid 60s to
low 70s across east central KS during peak heating hours. Combined
with strong downward mixing of the 27-29C thermal axis over the CWA,
expect highs to peak in the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat index
readings are expected to reach near or at advisory criteria in the
103 to 109 degree range. A heat advisory has been issued for
tomorrow afternoon. Strong southerly winds may gust in excess of 30
mph during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For Friday night through Saturday night, a lot will depend on the
timing and location of a cold front progged to move through the
area. In short it appears as the the NAM solution is a fast outlier
in bringing the front into east central KS by Saturday afternoon.
With this in mind the forecast follows the consensus of having the
boundary closer to the NEB state line through Saturday afternoon.
Models show that there may end up being a decent elevated mixed
layer (EML) at least ahead of the boundary capping the boundary
layer from convection within the warm sector. Since there does not
appear to be a strong signal of forcing from the models, decided
to keep a slight chance going Saturday afternoon and Saturday
night as the boundary moves across the area. The main adjustment
to the previous forecast was to trend temps warmer given a slower
frontal progression and 850 temps from the models suggest triple
digit heat is probable along and south of the KS river. So it is
conceivable that we will need a heat advisory through Saturday as
well. However confidence in the frontal timing casts enough doubt
that felt is prudent to hold off an advisory and see what later
model solutions show.

Cooler weather should move into the area by the end of the
weekend, however the new ECMWF and GFS are a little slower in
bringing the cooler low level temps south and wait until Sunday
night and Monday for the stronger cold air advection. Models
indicate a weak shortwave should round the upper ridge to the west
and move through the central plains Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. Therefore have some 20 to 30 percent chance POPs going
with better chances likely across central KS.

Kept the forecast dry after Wednesday in spite of the ECMWF
developing QPF over the area. With broad surface ridging over
eastern KS through the end of the period, there is not expected to
be much in the way of moisture advection. Additionally there is
some uncertainty in the thermal profile from the ECMWF given its
limited vertical resolution so think it may be over doing diurnal
convection. Wont say precip chances are nil since there could be
some weak waves within the flow aloft. Temps should remain mild
through the end of the forecast with the upper ridge remaining
over the southwestern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR prevails for KTOP/KMHK/KFOE as southeasterly winds above 10
kts through the afternoon may only fall just below 10 kts
overnight as a deepening surface trough shifts eastward. Winds
veer to the south 08-10Z as winds increase between 10 and 13 kts
sustained. Higher speeds with gusts are possible near the end of
the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KGLD 241934
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS AT MCK INCREASING BY
20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AREA AFTER 13Z...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JRM






000
FXUS63 KICT 241928
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY...AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A HOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN INITIAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIPPLES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK SLIM...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STRETCH OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW LATE JULY CLIMO.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING PERIOD. HOWEVER
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING AROUND 3K FT AT CNU TAF SITE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASE IN WINDS NEAR SUNSET BUT EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS START
UP AGAIN TOMORROW.

SALAZAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          75 101  76 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         75 103  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      76 103  74 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          75 105  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 241928
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY...AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A HOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN INITIAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIPPLES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK SLIM...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STRETCH OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW LATE JULY CLIMO.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING PERIOD. HOWEVER
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING AROUND 3K FT AT CNU TAF SITE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASE IN WINDS NEAR SUNSET BUT EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS START
UP AGAIN TOMORROW.

SALAZAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          75 101  76 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         75 103  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      76 103  74 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          75 105  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 241928
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY...AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A HOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN INITIAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIPPLES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK SLIM...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STRETCH OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW LATE JULY CLIMO.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING PERIOD. HOWEVER
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING AROUND 3K FT AT CNU TAF SITE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASE IN WINDS NEAR SUNSET BUT EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS START
UP AGAIN TOMORROW.

SALAZAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          75 101  76 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         75 103  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      76 103  74 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          75 105  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 241928
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS RETURN OF THE HEAT AND POTENTIAL FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT PRECIP
CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY SATURDAY...AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A HOT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
KANSAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CREEP
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS AN INITIAL
WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT RIPPLES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK SLIM...THOUGH ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
SURFACE FRONT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH MAXS AROUND THE CENTURY MARK AND HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A STRETCH OF RELATIVELY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW LATE JULY CLIMO.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME ALOFT. SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND RIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING PERIOD. HOWEVER
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING AROUND 3K FT AT CNU TAF SITE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASE IN WINDS NEAR SUNSET BUT EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS START
UP AGAIN TOMORROW.

SALAZAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  76 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          75 101  76 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        73  99  74 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         75 103  73 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      76 103  74 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          75 105  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       75 102  75 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  97  73  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  97  74  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING PERIOD. HOWEVER
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING AROUND 3K FT AT CNU TAF SITE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASE IN WINDS NEAR SUNSET BUT EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS START
UP AGAIN TOMORROW.


SALAZAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 102  74 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          74 101  75 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        72  99  73 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73 100  74 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74 103  72 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75 103  73 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          74 105  74 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       74 102  74 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         68  97  72  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            68  97  72  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING PERIOD. HOWEVER
WILL SEE AN OCCASIONAL CEILING AROUND 3K FT AT CNU TAF SITE FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DECREASE IN WINDS NEAR SUNSET BUT EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY WINDS START
UP AGAIN TOMORROW.


SALAZAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74 100  75 101 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74 102  74 102 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          74 101  75 101 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        72  99  73 100 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73 100  74 101 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74 103  72 100 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      75 103  73 101 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          74 105  74 102 /   0  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       74 102  74 102 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     71  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         68  97  72  99 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            68  97  72  99 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  97  73  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 241800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF DEWPOINT FALLS AS
DRYLINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RAP AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM ARE SUPPORTING
A WELL MIXED VERY WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING HIGHS ABOVE
105 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS AS MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY MIXING THINGS FASTER THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. GOES
SOUNDER DATA DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PW`S NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS OF 14Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LAYER OF DRIER AIR
OFF OF THE SURFACE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DILUTE SFC TDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED BOTH THE TD AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON LATEST DATA AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE NEEDED.

GIVEN DRY AIR AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...FIRE WX MAY
BECOME A LARGE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY
HARVESTED OR READY FOR HARVEST WHEAT FIELDS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE IN QUESTION THOUGH SO NOT SURE A RFW IS VALID
AT THIS POINT IN THE GREEN UP CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING...PLAN ON
HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIALLY CRITICAL LOCAL FIRE DANGER IN SPS FOR NOW
UNTIL FUEL INFORMATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS AT MCK INCREASING BY
20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AREA AFTER 13Z...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JRM







000
FXUS63 KGLD 241800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF DEWPOINT FALLS AS
DRYLINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RAP AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM ARE SUPPORTING
A WELL MIXED VERY WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING HIGHS ABOVE
105 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS AS MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY MIXING THINGS FASTER THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. GOES
SOUNDER DATA DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PW`S NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS OF 14Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LAYER OF DRIER AIR
OFF OF THE SURFACE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DILUTE SFC TDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED BOTH THE TD AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON LATEST DATA AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE NEEDED.

GIVEN DRY AIR AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...FIRE WX MAY
BECOME A LARGE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY
HARVESTED OR READY FOR HARVEST WHEAT FIELDS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE IN QUESTION THOUGH SO NOT SURE A RFW IS VALID
AT THIS POINT IN THE GREEN UP CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING...PLAN ON
HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIALLY CRITICAL LOCAL FIRE DANGER IN SPS FOR NOW
UNTIL FUEL INFORMATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS AT MCK INCREASING BY
20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AREA AFTER 13Z...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JRM







000
FXUS63 KGLD 241800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF DEWPOINT FALLS AS
DRYLINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RAP AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM ARE SUPPORTING
A WELL MIXED VERY WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING HIGHS ABOVE
105 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS AS MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY MIXING THINGS FASTER THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. GOES
SOUNDER DATA DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PW`S NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS OF 14Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LAYER OF DRIER AIR
OFF OF THE SURFACE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DILUTE SFC TDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED BOTH THE TD AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON LATEST DATA AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE NEEDED.

GIVEN DRY AIR AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...FIRE WX MAY
BECOME A LARGE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY
HARVESTED OR READY FOR HARVEST WHEAT FIELDS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE IN QUESTION THOUGH SO NOT SURE A RFW IS VALID
AT THIS POINT IN THE GREEN UP CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING...PLAN ON
HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIALLY CRITICAL LOCAL FIRE DANGER IN SPS FOR NOW
UNTIL FUEL INFORMATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS AT MCK INCREASING BY
20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AREA AFTER 13Z...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JRM







000
FXUS63 KGLD 241800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF DEWPOINT FALLS AS
DRYLINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RAP AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM ARE SUPPORTING
A WELL MIXED VERY WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING HIGHS ABOVE
105 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS AS MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY MIXING THINGS FASTER THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. GOES
SOUNDER DATA DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PW`S NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS OF 14Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LAYER OF DRIER AIR
OFF OF THE SURFACE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DILUTE SFC TDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED BOTH THE TD AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON LATEST DATA AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE NEEDED.

GIVEN DRY AIR AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...FIRE WX MAY
BECOME A LARGE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY
HARVESTED OR READY FOR HARVEST WHEAT FIELDS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE IN QUESTION THOUGH SO NOT SURE A RFW IS VALID
AT THIS POINT IN THE GREEN UP CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING...PLAN ON
HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIALLY CRITICAL LOCAL FIRE DANGER IN SPS FOR NOW
UNTIL FUEL INFORMATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS AT MCK INCREASING BY
20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AREA AFTER 13Z...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JRM







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241731
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed the broad mid-level ridge
still anchored across the Rockies, resulting in northwesterly aloft
across the forecast area. A few weak embedded shortwaves were noted
along the northern edge of the ridge axis over South Dakota. While
these waves should progress southeastward along the ridge axis, most
models show any precipitation that develops from these waves to
remain north of the forecast area. It`s worth noting though that
recent early morning runs of the HRRR and RAP have started to show
precipitation from these shortwaves diving further south along the
Nebraska/Iowa border and skimming near far northeast Kansas by this
afternoon. However, due to the agreement of the synoptic models in
keeping precipitation north of the area and with the fairly poor
performance of these short-range models over the last few days, have
gone with a dry forecast for today but will continue to monitor
these shortwaves through the day.

Surface high pressure was situated over the region early this
morning, resulting in light winds, mostly clear skies, and cooler
conditions as temperatures dropped into the 60s. This surface high
gradually will shift eastward toward the Ohio River Valley, with
winds shifting to the southeast today and further to the south
overnight. These southeasterly winds today will keep temperatures
near or slightly below the seasonal normals as afternoon highs
should reach into the mid 80s east to low 90s west.

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough and closed-off low
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest, and models show this low
progressing eastward along the U.S./Canadian border over the next
few days. This advancing low will help to flatten the mid-level
ridge currently in place, resulting in the area of surface low
pressure currently over the northern Rockies being pushed southward
into the High Plains tonight. Model soundings show high clouds
building in over the region tonight, so this cloud cover combined
with southerly winds will result in better insolation and keep low
temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Friday, the upper level ridge builds into northeast Kansas with the
edge of the westerlies over Missouri and Iowa. Thermal axis will
develop across the Central Plains ahead of a surface trough/front
that is expected to slowly move across Nebraska and into north
central Kansas by Friday evening. Dew point temperatures in the
middle 60s in north central Kansas and near 70 in northeast Kansas
will combine with afternoon temperatures from the upper 90s in far
eastern counties to around 105 toward central Kansas to produce
afternoon heat indices of 104 to 109 and will likely need a heat
advisory for the day on Friday.

The frontal boundary will slowly move south Saturday and Saturday
night settling in southern Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper
level ridge is suppressed westward as an upper level trough moves
across southern Canada and the Northern Plains. A unstable airmass
develops across northern Kansas Saturday with CAPE of 2500-5000 J/kg
and moderate shear. Soundings show inverted V cap eroding by late
afternoon and could see some isolated thunderstorms developing. If
they do develop then damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard.
Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday due to the presence of
mid and upper level clouds. However temperatures will range from
the  lower 90s along the Nebraska border to around 101 near central
Kansas. Dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 will combine with
the temperatures to produce heat indices of 99 to 104.

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected on Sunday in the
wake of the front and this should continue into mid week with
northwest flow aloft and high pressure over much of the Central
Plains. The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the western counties having the best chances. Both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate mid level waves moving through the
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR prevails for KTOP/KMHK/KFOE as southeasterly winds above 10
kts through the afternoon may only fall just below 10 kts
overnight as a deepening surface trough shifts eastward. Winds
veer to the south 08-10Z as winds increase between 10 and 13 kts
sustained. Higher speeds with gusts are possible near the end of
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KTOP 241731
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed the broad mid-level ridge
still anchored across the Rockies, resulting in northwesterly aloft
across the forecast area. A few weak embedded shortwaves were noted
along the northern edge of the ridge axis over South Dakota. While
these waves should progress southeastward along the ridge axis, most
models show any precipitation that develops from these waves to
remain north of the forecast area. It`s worth noting though that
recent early morning runs of the HRRR and RAP have started to show
precipitation from these shortwaves diving further south along the
Nebraska/Iowa border and skimming near far northeast Kansas by this
afternoon. However, due to the agreement of the synoptic models in
keeping precipitation north of the area and with the fairly poor
performance of these short-range models over the last few days, have
gone with a dry forecast for today but will continue to monitor
these shortwaves through the day.

Surface high pressure was situated over the region early this
morning, resulting in light winds, mostly clear skies, and cooler
conditions as temperatures dropped into the 60s. This surface high
gradually will shift eastward toward the Ohio River Valley, with
winds shifting to the southeast today and further to the south
overnight. These southeasterly winds today will keep temperatures
near or slightly below the seasonal normals as afternoon highs
should reach into the mid 80s east to low 90s west.

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough and closed-off low
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest, and models show this low
progressing eastward along the U.S./Canadian border over the next
few days. This advancing low will help to flatten the mid-level
ridge currently in place, resulting in the area of surface low
pressure currently over the northern Rockies being pushed southward
into the High Plains tonight. Model soundings show high clouds
building in over the region tonight, so this cloud cover combined
with southerly winds will result in better insolation and keep low
temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Friday, the upper level ridge builds into northeast Kansas with the
edge of the westerlies over Missouri and Iowa. Thermal axis will
develop across the Central Plains ahead of a surface trough/front
that is expected to slowly move across Nebraska and into north
central Kansas by Friday evening. Dew point temperatures in the
middle 60s in north central Kansas and near 70 in northeast Kansas
will combine with afternoon temperatures from the upper 90s in far
eastern counties to around 105 toward central Kansas to produce
afternoon heat indices of 104 to 109 and will likely need a heat
advisory for the day on Friday.

The frontal boundary will slowly move south Saturday and Saturday
night settling in southern Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper
level ridge is suppressed westward as an upper level trough moves
across southern Canada and the Northern Plains. A unstable airmass
develops across northern Kansas Saturday with CAPE of 2500-5000 J/kg
and moderate shear. Soundings show inverted V cap eroding by late
afternoon and could see some isolated thunderstorms developing. If
they do develop then damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard.
Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday due to the presence of
mid and upper level clouds. However temperatures will range from
the  lower 90s along the Nebraska border to around 101 near central
Kansas. Dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 will combine with
the temperatures to produce heat indices of 99 to 104.

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected on Sunday in the
wake of the front and this should continue into mid week with
northwest flow aloft and high pressure over much of the Central
Plains. The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the western counties having the best chances. Both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate mid level waves moving through the
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR prevails for KTOP/KMHK/KFOE as southeasterly winds above 10
kts through the afternoon may only fall just below 10 kts
overnight as a deepening surface trough shifts eastward. Winds
veer to the south 08-10Z as winds increase between 10 and 13 kts
sustained. Higher speeds with gusts are possible near the end of
the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KDDC 241731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The first portion of the long term period (Friday and Saturday,
specifically) will be some of the hottest weather of the summer for
western Kansas. It appears we will finally see our first (and
second) 100 degree day(s) of the year Friday and Saturday as all
models are showing a very pronounced lower tropospheric thermal
ridge overspreading western Kansas with the +32C 850mb isotherm
spreading as far east as a Hays to Dodge City line both days. On
Friday, we will go with 102 to 104F along a corridor from Hugoton to
Garden City to Hays with 100 to 101 elsewhere. The above average
evapotranspiration we have been seeing this summer, though, will
still be the wild card for some areas, including Dodge City. We have
been routinely over-forecasting high temperatures by a few degrees
on these hot days as most MOS guidance and gridded 2-meter
temperature fields have not done well at all in capturing the still
significant evapotranspiration going on. If we were mired in a dry
spell like the summers of 2011 and 2012, this same synoptic setting
and 850mb temperature forecasts would support widespread surface
temperatures of 105 to 109F for afternoon highs. The heat axis will
shift a bit south on Saturday as a weak front approaches from the
north. We will go with 102-103F along the Oklahoma border with
around 100F everywhere else. We will carry some slight chance POPs
along and just south of the boundary.

From Sunday into early/mid next week, we will see a relief from the
heat as another longwave trough develops across eastern North
America. On Sunday, the effective synoptic frontal zone will likely
extend from the southern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma with
post-frontal upslope across eastern Colorado. Best POPs will be out
west where any Colorado convection could come across the border
during the evening. A weakly frontogenetic axis amidst moist
800-700mb layer may support some nocturnal convection as well, which
is what the GFS and ECMWF would seem to suggest. Highs in the 80s
look good Monday and Tuesday with northwest flow aloft.  Tuesday and
Tuesday Night look like the best time frame for most widespread and
organized convection as a shortwave trough may round the Desert
Southwest upper high, enhancing frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer. It could be fairly cool Wednesday (and Thursday?) of next
week in the wake of this shortwave passage, reinforcing the eastern
North America longwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  76 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  99  75 103  71 /  10   0  10  10
EHA  99  72 102  71 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  74 102  72 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  97  78 104  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  95  75 103  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 241731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The first portion of the long term period (Friday and Saturday,
specifically) will be some of the hottest weather of the summer for
western Kansas. It appears we will finally see our first (and
second) 100 degree day(s) of the year Friday and Saturday as all
models are showing a very pronounced lower tropospheric thermal
ridge overspreading western Kansas with the +32C 850mb isotherm
spreading as far east as a Hays to Dodge City line both days. On
Friday, we will go with 102 to 104F along a corridor from Hugoton to
Garden City to Hays with 100 to 101 elsewhere. The above average
evapotranspiration we have been seeing this summer, though, will
still be the wild card for some areas, including Dodge City. We have
been routinely over-forecasting high temperatures by a few degrees
on these hot days as most MOS guidance and gridded 2-meter
temperature fields have not done well at all in capturing the still
significant evapotranspiration going on. If we were mired in a dry
spell like the summers of 2011 and 2012, this same synoptic setting
and 850mb temperature forecasts would support widespread surface
temperatures of 105 to 109F for afternoon highs. The heat axis will
shift a bit south on Saturday as a weak front approaches from the
north. We will go with 102-103F along the Oklahoma border with
around 100F everywhere else. We will carry some slight chance POPs
along and just south of the boundary.

From Sunday into early/mid next week, we will see a relief from the
heat as another longwave trough develops across eastern North
America. On Sunday, the effective synoptic frontal zone will likely
extend from the southern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma with
post-frontal upslope across eastern Colorado. Best POPs will be out
west where any Colorado convection could come across the border
during the evening. A weakly frontogenetic axis amidst moist
800-700mb layer may support some nocturnal convection as well, which
is what the GFS and ECMWF would seem to suggest. Highs in the 80s
look good Monday and Tuesday with northwest flow aloft.  Tuesday and
Tuesday Night look like the best time frame for most widespread and
organized convection as a shortwave trough may round the Desert
Southwest upper high, enhancing frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer. It could be fairly cool Wednesday (and Thursday?) of next
week in the wake of this shortwave passage, reinforcing the eastern
North America longwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period with drier air at lower levels. Winds will be from the south
at 15 kts, then gradually shifting to the southwest by 12z. VFR
conditions will prevail as low CIGS are not expected in this drier
airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  76 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  99  75 103  71 /  10   0  10  10
EHA  99  72 102  71 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  74 102  72 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  97  78 104  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  95  75 103  75 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch






000
FXUS63 KGLD 241533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
933 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF DEWPOINT FALLS AS
DRYLINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RAP AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM ARE SUPPORTING
A WELL MIXED VERY WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING HIGHS ABOVE
105 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS AS MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY MIXING THINGS FASTER THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. GOES
SOUNDER DATA DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PW`S NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS OF 14Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LAYER OF DRIER AIR
OFF OF THE SURFACE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DILUTE SFC TDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED BOTH THE TD AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON LATEST DATA AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE NEEDED.

GIVEN DRY AIR AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...FIRE WX MAY
BECOME A LARGE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY
HARVESTED OR READY FOR HARVEST WHEAT FIELDS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE IN QUESTION THOUGH SO NOT SURE A RFW IS VALID
AT THIS POINT IN THE GREEN UP CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING...PLAN ON
HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIALLY CRITICAL LOCAL FIRE DANGER IN SPS FOR NOW
UNTIL FUEL INFORMATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THIN AND
SHALLOW MAY BE AROUND FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 12Z.
ONCE ENOUGH HEATING TAKES PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH KGLD HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE IT IS
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPOTTY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER







000
FXUS63 KGLD 241533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
933 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF DEWPOINT FALLS AS
DRYLINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RAP AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM ARE SUPPORTING
A WELL MIXED VERY WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING HIGHS ABOVE
105 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS AS MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY MIXING THINGS FASTER THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. GOES
SOUNDER DATA DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PW`S NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS OF 14Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LAYER OF DRIER AIR
OFF OF THE SURFACE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DILUTE SFC TDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED BOTH THE TD AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON LATEST DATA AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE NEEDED.

GIVEN DRY AIR AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...FIRE WX MAY
BECOME A LARGE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY
HARVESTED OR READY FOR HARVEST WHEAT FIELDS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE IN QUESTION THOUGH SO NOT SURE A RFW IS VALID
AT THIS POINT IN THE GREEN UP CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING...PLAN ON
HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIALLY CRITICAL LOCAL FIRE DANGER IN SPS FOR NOW
UNTIL FUEL INFORMATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THIN AND
SHALLOW MAY BE AROUND FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 12Z.
ONCE ENOUGH HEATING TAKES PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH KGLD HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE IT IS
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPOTTY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER







000
FXUS63 KGLD 241533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
933 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF DEWPOINT FALLS AS
DRYLINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RAP AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM ARE SUPPORTING
A WELL MIXED VERY WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING HIGHS ABOVE
105 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS AS MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY MIXING THINGS FASTER THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. GOES
SOUNDER DATA DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PW`S NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS OF 14Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LAYER OF DRIER AIR
OFF OF THE SURFACE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DILUTE SFC TDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED BOTH THE TD AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON LATEST DATA AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE NEEDED.

GIVEN DRY AIR AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...FIRE WX MAY
BECOME A LARGE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY
HARVESTED OR READY FOR HARVEST WHEAT FIELDS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE IN QUESTION THOUGH SO NOT SURE A RFW IS VALID
AT THIS POINT IN THE GREEN UP CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING...PLAN ON
HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIALLY CRITICAL LOCAL FIRE DANGER IN SPS FOR NOW
UNTIL FUEL INFORMATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THIN AND
SHALLOW MAY BE AROUND FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 12Z.
ONCE ENOUGH HEATING TAKES PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH KGLD HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE IT IS
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPOTTY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER







000
FXUS63 KGLD 241533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
933 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL
GET THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH MAGNITUDE OF DEWPOINT FALLS AS
DRYLINE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST RAP AND HRRR AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE NAM ARE SUPPORTING
A WELL MIXED VERY WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING HIGHS ABOVE
105 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS AS MODELS ARE
AGGRESSIVELY MIXING THINGS FASTER THAN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. GOES
SOUNDER DATA DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PW`S NOSING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS OF 14Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A LAYER OF DRIER AIR
OFF OF THE SURFACE WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DILUTE SFC TDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED BOTH THE TD AND RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON LATEST DATA AND WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE NEEDED.

GIVEN DRY AIR AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...FIRE WX MAY
BECOME A LARGE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENTLY
HARVESTED OR READY FOR HARVEST WHEAT FIELDS. CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS ARE IN QUESTION THOUGH SO NOT SURE A RFW IS VALID
AT THIS POINT IN THE GREEN UP CYCLE. FOR THE TIME BEING...PLAN ON
HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIALLY CRITICAL LOCAL FIRE DANGER IN SPS FOR NOW
UNTIL FUEL INFORMATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THIN AND
SHALLOW MAY BE AROUND FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 12Z.
ONCE ENOUGH HEATING TAKES PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH KGLD HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE IT IS
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPOTTY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER







000
FXUS63 KGLD 241233
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
633 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THIN AND
SHALLOW MAY BE AROUND FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 12Z.
ONCE ENOUGH HEATING TAKES PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH KGLD HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE IT IS
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPOTTY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER






000
FXUS63 KGLD 241233
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
633 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND MINOR FOG HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST
OF SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM GARDEN CITY TO RUSSEL SPRINGS.
THIS IS NOT A PARTICULARLY WIDE AREA AND THINK MORNING SUN SHOULD
HELP MIX OUT FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THIN AND
SHALLOW MAY BE AROUND FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 12Z.
ONCE ENOUGH HEATING TAKES PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH KGLD HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE IT IS
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPOTTY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER







000
FXUS63 KICT 241201
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
WINDS VEERING AND INCREASING. ONLY MODEST DECREASE IN WINDS AT
SUNSET IS ANTICIPATED. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT AT KRSL/KSLN FROM
STORMS DEVELOPING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  74 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        91  73 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  74 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  75 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  97  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 241201
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
WINDS VEERING AND INCREASING. ONLY MODEST DECREASE IN WINDS AT
SUNSET IS ANTICIPATED. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT AT KRSL/KSLN FROM
STORMS DEVELOPING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  74 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        91  73 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  74 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  75 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  97  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 241201
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
WINDS VEERING AND INCREASING. ONLY MODEST DECREASE IN WINDS AT
SUNSET IS ANTICIPATED. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT AT KRSL/KSLN FROM
STORMS DEVELOPING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  74 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        91  73 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  74 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  75 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  97  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 241201
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
WINDS VEERING AND INCREASING. ONLY MODEST DECREASE IN WINDS AT
SUNSET IS ANTICIPATED. ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT AT KRSL/KSLN FROM
STORMS DEVELOPING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  74 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        91  73 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  74 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  75 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  97  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KDDC 241200
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
700 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The first portion of the long term period (Friday and Saturday,
specifically) will be some of the hottest weather of the summer for
western Kansas. It appears we will finally see our first (and
second) 100 degree day(s) of the year Friday and Saturday as all
models are showing a very pronounced lower tropospheric thermal
ridge overspreading western Kansas with the +32C 850mb isotherm
spreading as far east as a Hays to Dodge City line both days. On
Friday, we will go with 102 to 104F along a corridor from Hugoton to
Garden City to Hays with 100 to 101 elsewhere. The above average
evapotranspiration we have been seeing this summer, though, will
still be the wild card for some areas, including Dodge City. We have
been routinely over-forecasting high temperatures by a few degrees
on these hot days as most MOS guidance and gridded 2-meter
temperature fields have not done well at all in capturing the still
significant evapotranspiration going on. If we were mired in a dry
spell like the summers of 2011 and 2012, this same synoptic setting
and 850mb temperature forecasts would support widespread surface
temperatures of 105 to 109F for afternoon highs. The heat axis will
shift a bit south on Saturday as a weak front approaches from the
north. We will go with 102-103F along the Oklahoma border with
around 100F everywhere else. We will carry some slight chance POPs
along and just south of the boundary.

From Sunday into early/mid next week, we will see a relief from the
heat as another longwave trough develops across eastern North
America. On Sunday, the effective synoptic frontal zone will likely
extend from the southern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma with
post-frontal upslope across eastern Colorado. Best POPs will be out
west where any Colorado convection could come across the border
during the evening. A weakly frontogenetic axis amidst moist
800-700mb layer may support some nocturnal convection as well, which
is what the GFS and ECMWF would seem to suggest. Highs in the 80s
look good Monday and Tuesday with northwest flow aloft.  Tuesday and
Tuesday Night look like the best time frame for most widespread and
organized convection as a shortwave trough may round the Desert
Southwest upper high, enhancing frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer. It could be fairly cool Wednesday (and Thursday?) of next
week in the wake of this shortwave passage, reinforcing the eastern
North America longwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

There was a thin axis of IFR stratus that was over the GCK
terminal early this morning, however this is expected to scatter
out by 14 or 15Z. VFR will prevail thereafter with south to
southwest winds strengthening to 15 to 20 knots by midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  76 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  99  75 103  71 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  99  72 101  71 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  74 102  72 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  98  76 104  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KDDC 241200
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
700 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The first portion of the long term period (Friday and Saturday,
specifically) will be some of the hottest weather of the summer for
western Kansas. It appears we will finally see our first (and
second) 100 degree day(s) of the year Friday and Saturday as all
models are showing a very pronounced lower tropospheric thermal
ridge overspreading western Kansas with the +32C 850mb isotherm
spreading as far east as a Hays to Dodge City line both days. On
Friday, we will go with 102 to 104F along a corridor from Hugoton to
Garden City to Hays with 100 to 101 elsewhere. The above average
evapotranspiration we have been seeing this summer, though, will
still be the wild card for some areas, including Dodge City. We have
been routinely over-forecasting high temperatures by a few degrees
on these hot days as most MOS guidance and gridded 2-meter
temperature fields have not done well at all in capturing the still
significant evapotranspiration going on. If we were mired in a dry
spell like the summers of 2011 and 2012, this same synoptic setting
and 850mb temperature forecasts would support widespread surface
temperatures of 105 to 109F for afternoon highs. The heat axis will
shift a bit south on Saturday as a weak front approaches from the
north. We will go with 102-103F along the Oklahoma border with
around 100F everywhere else. We will carry some slight chance POPs
along and just south of the boundary.

From Sunday into early/mid next week, we will see a relief from the
heat as another longwave trough develops across eastern North
America. On Sunday, the effective synoptic frontal zone will likely
extend from the southern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma with
post-frontal upslope across eastern Colorado. Best POPs will be out
west where any Colorado convection could come across the border
during the evening. A weakly frontogenetic axis amidst moist
800-700mb layer may support some nocturnal convection as well, which
is what the GFS and ECMWF would seem to suggest. Highs in the 80s
look good Monday and Tuesday with northwest flow aloft.  Tuesday and
Tuesday Night look like the best time frame for most widespread and
organized convection as a shortwave trough may round the Desert
Southwest upper high, enhancing frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer. It could be fairly cool Wednesday (and Thursday?) of next
week in the wake of this shortwave passage, reinforcing the eastern
North America longwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

There was a thin axis of IFR stratus that was over the GCK
terminal early this morning, however this is expected to scatter
out by 14 or 15Z. VFR will prevail thereafter with south to
southwest winds strengthening to 15 to 20 knots by midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  76 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  99  75 103  71 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  99  72 101  71 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  74 102  72 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  98  76 104  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed the broad mid-level ridge
still anchored across the Rockies, resulting in northwesterly aloft
across the forecast area. A few weak embedded shortwaves were noted
along the northern edge of the ridge axis over South Dakota. While
these waves should progress southeastward along the ridge axis, most
models show any precipitation that develops from these waves to
remain north of the forecast area. It`s worth noting though that
recent early morning runs of the HRRR and RAP have started to show
precipitation from these shortwaves diving further south along the
Nebraska/Iowa border and skimming near far northeast Kansas by this
afternoon. However, due to the agreement of the synoptic models in
keeping precipitation north of the area and with the fairly poor
performance of these short-range models over the last few days, have
gone with a dry forecast for today but will continue to monitor
these shortwaves through the day.

Surface high pressure was situated over the region early this
morning, resulting in light winds, mostly clear skies, and cooler
conditions as temperatures dropped into the 60s. This surface high
gradually will shift eastward toward the Ohio River Valley, with
winds shifting to the southeast today and further to the south
overnight. These southeasterly winds today will keep temperatures
near or slightly below the seasonal normals as afternoon highs
should reach into the mid 80s east to low 90s west.

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough and closed-off low
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest, and models show this low
progressing eastward along the U.S./Canadian border over the next
few days. This advancing low will help to flatten the mid-level
ridge currently in place, resulting in the area of surface low
pressure currently over the northern Rockies being pushed southward
into the High Plains tonight. Model soundings show high clouds
building in over the region tonight, so this cloud cover combined
with southerly winds will result in better insolation and keep low
temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Friday, the upper level ridge builds into northeast Kansas with the
edge of the westerlies over Missouri and Iowa. Thermal axis will
develop across the Central Plains ahead of a surface trough/front
that is expected to slowly move across Nebraska and into north
central Kansas by Friday evening. Dew point temperatures in the
middle 60s in north central Kansas and near 70 in northeast Kansas
will combine with afternoon temperatures from the upper 90s in far
eastern counties to around 105 toward central Kansas to produce
afternoon heat indices of 104 to 109 and will likely need a heat
advisory for the day on Friday.

The frontal boundary will slowly move south Saturday and Saturday
night settling in southern Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper
level ridge is suppressed westward as an upper level trough moves
across southern Canada and the Northern Plains. A unstable airmass
develops across northern Kansas Saturday with CAPE of 2500-5000 J/kg
and moderate shear. Soundings show inverted V cap eroding by late
afternoon and could see some isolated thunderstorms developing. If
they do develop then damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard.
Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday due to the presence of
mid and upper level clouds. However temperatures will range from
the  lower 90s along the Nebraska border to around 101 near central
Kansas. Dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 will combine with
the temperatures to produce heat indices of 99 to 104.

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected on Sunday in the
wake of the front and this should continue into mid week with
northwest flow aloft and high pressure over much of the Central
Plains. The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the western counties having the best chances. Both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate mid level waves moving through the
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Calm winds this morning will increase out of the southeast today and
persist at roughly 8-10kts through the afternoon and evening hours.
Expect the wind direction to begin shifting more to the south by
Friday morning as the next system approaches the region.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed the broad mid-level ridge
still anchored across the Rockies, resulting in northwesterly aloft
across the forecast area. A few weak embedded shortwaves were noted
along the northern edge of the ridge axis over South Dakota. While
these waves should progress southeastward along the ridge axis, most
models show any precipitation that develops from these waves to
remain north of the forecast area. It`s worth noting though that
recent early morning runs of the HRRR and RAP have started to show
precipitation from these shortwaves diving further south along the
Nebraska/Iowa border and skimming near far northeast Kansas by this
afternoon. However, due to the agreement of the synoptic models in
keeping precipitation north of the area and with the fairly poor
performance of these short-range models over the last few days, have
gone with a dry forecast for today but will continue to monitor
these shortwaves through the day.

Surface high pressure was situated over the region early this
morning, resulting in light winds, mostly clear skies, and cooler
conditions as temperatures dropped into the 60s. This surface high
gradually will shift eastward toward the Ohio River Valley, with
winds shifting to the southeast today and further to the south
overnight. These southeasterly winds today will keep temperatures
near or slightly below the seasonal normals as afternoon highs
should reach into the mid 80s east to low 90s west.

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough and closed-off low
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest, and models show this low
progressing eastward along the U.S./Canadian border over the next
few days. This advancing low will help to flatten the mid-level
ridge currently in place, resulting in the area of surface low
pressure currently over the northern Rockies being pushed southward
into the High Plains tonight. Model soundings show high clouds
building in over the region tonight, so this cloud cover combined
with southerly winds will result in better insolation and keep low
temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Friday, the upper level ridge builds into northeast Kansas with the
edge of the westerlies over Missouri and Iowa. Thermal axis will
develop across the Central Plains ahead of a surface trough/front
that is expected to slowly move across Nebraska and into north
central Kansas by Friday evening. Dew point temperatures in the
middle 60s in north central Kansas and near 70 in northeast Kansas
will combine with afternoon temperatures from the upper 90s in far
eastern counties to around 105 toward central Kansas to produce
afternoon heat indices of 104 to 109 and will likely need a heat
advisory for the day on Friday.

The frontal boundary will slowly move south Saturday and Saturday
night settling in southern Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper
level ridge is suppressed westward as an upper level trough moves
across southern Canada and the Northern Plains. A unstable airmass
develops across northern Kansas Saturday with CAPE of 2500-5000 J/kg
and moderate shear. Soundings show inverted V cap eroding by late
afternoon and could see some isolated thunderstorms developing. If
they do develop then damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard.
Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday due to the presence of
mid and upper level clouds. However temperatures will range from
the  lower 90s along the Nebraska border to around 101 near central
Kansas. Dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 will combine with
the temperatures to produce heat indices of 99 to 104.

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected on Sunday in the
wake of the front and this should continue into mid week with
northwest flow aloft and high pressure over much of the Central
Plains. The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the western counties having the best chances. Both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate mid level waves moving through the
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Calm winds this morning will increase out of the southeast today and
persist at roughly 8-10kts through the afternoon and evening hours.
Expect the wind direction to begin shifting more to the south by
Friday morning as the next system approaches the region.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed the broad mid-level ridge
still anchored across the Rockies, resulting in northwesterly aloft
across the forecast area. A few weak embedded shortwaves were noted
along the northern edge of the ridge axis over South Dakota. While
these waves should progress southeastward along the ridge axis, most
models show any precipitation that develops from these waves to
remain north of the forecast area. It`s worth noting though that
recent early morning runs of the HRRR and RAP have started to show
precipitation from these shortwaves diving further south along the
Nebraska/Iowa border and skimming near far northeast Kansas by this
afternoon. However, due to the agreement of the synoptic models in
keeping precipitation north of the area and with the fairly poor
performance of these short-range models over the last few days, have
gone with a dry forecast for today but will continue to monitor
these shortwaves through the day.

Surface high pressure was situated over the region early this
morning, resulting in light winds, mostly clear skies, and cooler
conditions as temperatures dropped into the 60s. This surface high
gradually will shift eastward toward the Ohio River Valley, with
winds shifting to the southeast today and further to the south
overnight. These southeasterly winds today will keep temperatures
near or slightly below the seasonal normals as afternoon highs
should reach into the mid 80s east to low 90s west.

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough and closed-off low
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest, and models show this low
progressing eastward along the U.S./Canadian border over the next
few days. This advancing low will help to flatten the mid-level
ridge currently in place, resulting in the area of surface low
pressure currently over the northern Rockies being pushed southward
into the High Plains tonight. Model soundings show high clouds
building in over the region tonight, so this cloud cover combined
with southerly winds will result in better insolation and keep low
temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Friday, the upper level ridge builds into northeast Kansas with the
edge of the westerlies over Missouri and Iowa. Thermal axis will
develop across the Central Plains ahead of a surface trough/front
that is expected to slowly move across Nebraska and into north
central Kansas by Friday evening. Dew point temperatures in the
middle 60s in north central Kansas and near 70 in northeast Kansas
will combine with afternoon temperatures from the upper 90s in far
eastern counties to around 105 toward central Kansas to produce
afternoon heat indices of 104 to 109 and will likely need a heat
advisory for the day on Friday.

The frontal boundary will slowly move south Saturday and Saturday
night settling in southern Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper
level ridge is suppressed westward as an upper level trough moves
across southern Canada and the Northern Plains. A unstable airmass
develops across northern Kansas Saturday with CAPE of 2500-5000 J/kg
and moderate shear. Soundings show inverted V cap eroding by late
afternoon and could see some isolated thunderstorms developing. If
they do develop then damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard.
Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday due to the presence of
mid and upper level clouds. However temperatures will range from
the  lower 90s along the Nebraska border to around 101 near central
Kansas. Dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 will combine with
the temperatures to produce heat indices of 99 to 104.

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected on Sunday in the
wake of the front and this should continue into mid week with
northwest flow aloft and high pressure over much of the Central
Plains. The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the western counties having the best chances. Both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate mid level waves moving through the
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Calm winds this morning will increase out of the southeast today and
persist at roughly 8-10kts through the afternoon and evening hours.
Expect the wind direction to begin shifting more to the south by
Friday morning as the next system approaches the region.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed the broad mid-level ridge
still anchored across the Rockies, resulting in northwesterly aloft
across the forecast area. A few weak embedded shortwaves were noted
along the northern edge of the ridge axis over South Dakota. While
these waves should progress southeastward along the ridge axis, most
models show any precipitation that develops from these waves to
remain north of the forecast area. It`s worth noting though that
recent early morning runs of the HRRR and RAP have started to show
precipitation from these shortwaves diving further south along the
Nebraska/Iowa border and skimming near far northeast Kansas by this
afternoon. However, due to the agreement of the synoptic models in
keeping precipitation north of the area and with the fairly poor
performance of these short-range models over the last few days, have
gone with a dry forecast for today but will continue to monitor
these shortwaves through the day.

Surface high pressure was situated over the region early this
morning, resulting in light winds, mostly clear skies, and cooler
conditions as temperatures dropped into the 60s. This surface high
gradually will shift eastward toward the Ohio River Valley, with
winds shifting to the southeast today and further to the south
overnight. These southeasterly winds today will keep temperatures
near or slightly below the seasonal normals as afternoon highs
should reach into the mid 80s east to low 90s west.

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough and closed-off low
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest, and models show this low
progressing eastward along the U.S./Canadian border over the next
few days. This advancing low will help to flatten the mid-level
ridge currently in place, resulting in the area of surface low
pressure currently over the northern Rockies being pushed southward
into the High Plains tonight. Model soundings show high clouds
building in over the region tonight, so this cloud cover combined
with southerly winds will result in better insolation and keep low
temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Friday, the upper level ridge builds into northeast Kansas with the
edge of the westerlies over Missouri and Iowa. Thermal axis will
develop across the Central Plains ahead of a surface trough/front
that is expected to slowly move across Nebraska and into north
central Kansas by Friday evening. Dew point temperatures in the
middle 60s in north central Kansas and near 70 in northeast Kansas
will combine with afternoon temperatures from the upper 90s in far
eastern counties to around 105 toward central Kansas to produce
afternoon heat indices of 104 to 109 and will likely need a heat
advisory for the day on Friday.

The frontal boundary will slowly move south Saturday and Saturday
night settling in southern Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper
level ridge is suppressed westward as an upper level trough moves
across southern Canada and the Northern Plains. A unstable airmass
develops across northern Kansas Saturday with CAPE of 2500-5000 J/kg
and moderate shear. Soundings show inverted V cap eroding by late
afternoon and could see some isolated thunderstorms developing. If
they do develop then damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard.
Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday due to the presence of
mid and upper level clouds. However temperatures will range from
the  lower 90s along the Nebraska border to around 101 near central
Kansas. Dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 will combine with
the temperatures to produce heat indices of 99 to 104.

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected on Sunday in the
wake of the front and this should continue into mid week with
northwest flow aloft and high pressure over much of the Central
Plains. The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the western counties having the best chances. Both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate mid level waves moving through the
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Calm winds this morning will increase out of the southeast today and
persist at roughly 8-10kts through the afternoon and evening hours.
Expect the wind direction to begin shifting more to the south by
Friday morning as the next system approaches the region.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KGLD 241118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THIN AND
SHALLOW MAY BE AROUND FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 12Z.
ONCE ENOUGH HEATING TAKES PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH KGLD HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE IT IS
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPOTTY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER







000
FXUS63 KGLD 241118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME THIN AND
SHALLOW MAY BE AROUND FOR A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER 12Z.
ONCE ENOUGH HEATING TAKES PLACE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH KGLD HAVING THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE IT IS
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPOTTY...WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...BULLER






000
FXUS63 KGLD 240924
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KGLD 240924
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW HOT DOES
IT GET. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF OUR AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. OVERALL THE ECMWF WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING THE BEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
A DEEP DRY LAYER SHOWN BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN +15. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE BACK FURTHER WEST TOWARD
THE LIFT. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH GEFS PROBABILITIES. NEW GUIDANCE
SUPPORTED ONLY MAKING SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAR EAST DOES IT GO DURING THE NIGHT.
INITIALLY MOST OF THE LIFT ALOFT GOES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND REMAINDER OF THE
SHORTWAVE GOES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE LIFT DOES NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG RIGHT NOW AND THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER WILL CONTINUE WHAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN WHICH IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
DURING THE EVENING. THIS ALSO MATCHES WITH THE PROBABILITY FORECAST
WHICH DOES KEEP MEASURABLE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS NOW APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
COLD FRONT...BEING PUSHED BY NORTHERN SYSTEM. IN FACT MOST OF THEM
STALL THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTION BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS THEN LOOKS TO PULL BACK TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE COMING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST DURING THE NIGHT. COMPLICATE THAT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE PLUS 15 AND A DEEP DRY LAYER IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW AS WELL. SO COULD
POSSIBLY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY
AND/OR COME OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL PUT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.

QUESTION ONCE AGAIN IS HOW FAR EAST DOES THE CONVECTION GO AND HOW
LONG IT GOES INTO THE NIGHT. MODEL QPF AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS
TEND TO FAVOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND TO OUR NORTH. RIGHT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IN THE EVENING LOOKS REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. HOWEVER WITH THE BOUNDARY AND DECENT LIFT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT...WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT. SINCE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...
MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO ENDED UP RAISING MAXES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT IS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA...NOT BY MUCH...BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SO AIR
MASS WILL BE COOLER WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OCCURRING. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BELIEVE INITIALLY THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TIED TO IT WITH THE MAIN AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR WEST WILL SEE SOME STORMS WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE AIR
MASS. SO REDUCED POPS TO JUST THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. BUT MODELS
DISAGREE ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. OVERALL SETUP AND PROBABILITIES SUPPORT THE SOUTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE.

EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SHORTLY AFTER
18Z...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING INTO THE
AREA. ONCE AGAIN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO...THE LESS HOT IT
WILL BE. AGAIN THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated Long Term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The first portion of the long term period (Friday and Saturday,
specifically) will be some of the hottest weather of the summer for
western Kansas. It appears we will finally see our first (and
second) 100 degree day(s) of the year Friday and Saturday as all
models are showing a very pronounced lower tropospheric thermal
ridge overspreading western Kansas with the +32C 850mb isotherm
spreading as far east as a Hays to Dodge City line both days. On
Friday, we will go with 102 to 104F along a corridor from Hugoton to
Garden City to Hays with 100 to 101 elsewhere. The above average
evapotranspiration we have been seeing this summer, though, will
still be the wild card for some areas, including Dodge City. We have
been routinely over-forecasting high temperatures by a few degrees
on these hot days as most MOS guidance and gridded 2-meter
temperature fields have not done well at all in capturing the still
significant evapotranspiration going on. If we were mired in a dry
spell like the summers of 2011 and 2012, this same synoptic setting
and 850mb temperature forecasts would support widespread surface
temperatures of 105 to 109F for afternoon highs. The heat axis will
shift a bit south on Saturday as a weak front approaches from the
north. We will go with 102-103F along the Oklahoma border with
around 100F everywhere else. We will carry some slight chance POPs
along and just south of the boundary.

From Sunday into early/mid next week, we will see a relief from the
heat as another longwave trough develops across eastern North
America. On Sunday, the effective synoptic frontal zone will likely
extend from the southern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma with
post-frontal upslope across eastern Colorado. Best POPs will be out
west where any Colorado convection could come across the border
during the evening. A weakly frontogenetic axis amidst moist
800-700mb layer may support some nocturnal convection as well, which
is what the GFS and ECMWF would seem to suggest. Highs in the 80s
look good Monday and Tuesday with northwest flow aloft.  Tuesday and
Tuesday Night look like the best time frame for most widespread and
organized convection as a shortwave trough may round the Desert
Southwest upper high, enhancing frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer. It could be fairly cool Wednesday (and Thursday?) of next
week in the wake of this shortwave passage, reinforcing the eastern
North America longwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Mainly clear VFR conditions are expected overnight. Despite higher
surface humidity levels, enough mixing and lack of sfc moisture
convergence will preclude the possibility of dense fog. Surface
winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots after 15 UTC with higher gusts
through the afternoon. A general lack of surface convergence and
model temperatures in the  15 to 20 degree C range in the 720-750 mb
layer are unfavorable for convection.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  76 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  99  75 103  71 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  99  72 101  71 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  74 102  72 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  98  76 104  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KDDC 240902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...Updated Long Term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

The first portion of the long term period (Friday and Saturday,
specifically) will be some of the hottest weather of the summer for
western Kansas. It appears we will finally see our first (and
second) 100 degree day(s) of the year Friday and Saturday as all
models are showing a very pronounced lower tropospheric thermal
ridge overspreading western Kansas with the +32C 850mb isotherm
spreading as far east as a Hays to Dodge City line both days. On
Friday, we will go with 102 to 104F along a corridor from Hugoton to
Garden City to Hays with 100 to 101 elsewhere. The above average
evapotranspiration we have been seeing this summer, though, will
still be the wild card for some areas, including Dodge City. We have
been routinely over-forecasting high temperatures by a few degrees
on these hot days as most MOS guidance and gridded 2-meter
temperature fields have not done well at all in capturing the still
significant evapotranspiration going on. If we were mired in a dry
spell like the summers of 2011 and 2012, this same synoptic setting
and 850mb temperature forecasts would support widespread surface
temperatures of 105 to 109F for afternoon highs. The heat axis will
shift a bit south on Saturday as a weak front approaches from the
north. We will go with 102-103F along the Oklahoma border with
around 100F everywhere else. We will carry some slight chance POPs
along and just south of the boundary.

From Sunday into early/mid next week, we will see a relief from the
heat as another longwave trough develops across eastern North
America. On Sunday, the effective synoptic frontal zone will likely
extend from the southern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma with
post-frontal upslope across eastern Colorado. Best POPs will be out
west where any Colorado convection could come across the border
during the evening. A weakly frontogenetic axis amidst moist
800-700mb layer may support some nocturnal convection as well, which
is what the GFS and ECMWF would seem to suggest. Highs in the 80s
look good Monday and Tuesday with northwest flow aloft.  Tuesday and
Tuesday Night look like the best time frame for most widespread and
organized convection as a shortwave trough may round the Desert
Southwest upper high, enhancing frontogenesis in the 850-700mb
layer. It could be fairly cool Wednesday (and Thursday?) of next
week in the wake of this shortwave passage, reinforcing the eastern
North America longwave trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Mainly clear VFR conditions are expected overnight. Despite higher
surface humidity levels, enough mixing and lack of sfc moisture
convergence will preclude the possibility of dense fog. Surface
winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots after 15 UTC with higher gusts
through the afternoon. A general lack of surface convergence and
model temperatures in the  15 to 20 degree C range in the 720-750 mb
layer are unfavorable for convection.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  76 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  99  75 103  71 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  99  72 101  71 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 100  74 102  72 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  98  76 104  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell






000
FXUS63 KTOP 240849
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed the broad mid-level ridge
still anchored across the Rockies, resulting in northwesterly aloft
across the forecast area. A few weak embedded shortwaves were noted
along the northern edge of the ridge axis over South Dakota. While
these waves should progress southeastward along the ridge axis, most
models show any precipitation that develops from these waves to
remain north of the forecast area. It`s worth noting though that
recent early morning runs of the HRRR and RAP have started to show
precipitation from these shortwaves diving further south along the
Nebraska/Iowa border and skimming near far northeast Kansas by this
afternoon. However, due to the agreement of the synoptic models in
keeping precipitation north of the area and with the fairly poor
performance of these short-range models over the last few days, have
gone with a dry forecast for today but will continue to monitor
these shortwaves through the day.

Surface high pressure was situated over the region early this
morning, resulting in light winds, mostly clear skies, and cooler
conditions as temperatures dropped into the 60s. This surface high
gradually will shift eastward toward the Ohio River Valley, with
winds shifting to the southeast today and further to the south
overnight. These southeasterly winds today will keep temperatures
near or slightly below the seasonal normals as afternoon highs
should reach into the mid 80s east to low 90s west.

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough and closed-off low
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest, and models show this low
progressing eastward along the U.S./Canadian border over the next
few days. This advancing low will help to flatten the mid-level
ridge currently in place, resulting in the area of surface low
pressure currently over the northern Rockies being pushed southward
into the High Plains tonight. Model soundings show high clouds
building in over the region tonight, so this cloud cover combined
with southerly winds will result in better insolation and keep low
temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Friday, the upper level ridge builds into northeast Kansas with the
edge of the westerlies over Missouri and Iowa. Thermal axis will
develop across the Central Plains ahead of a surface trough/front
that is expected to slowly move across Nebraska and into north
central Kansas by Friday evening. Dew point temperatures in the
middle 60s in north central Kansas and near 70 in northeast Kansas
will combine with afternoon temperatures from the upper 90s in far
eastern counties to around 105 toward central Kansas to produce
afternoon heat indices of 104 to 109 and will likely need a heat
advisory for the day on Friday.

The frontal boundary will slowly move south Saturday and Saturday
night settling in southern Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper
level ridge is suppressed westward as an upper level trough moves
across southern Canada and the Northern Plains. A unstable airmass
develops across northern Kansas Saturday with CAPE of 2500-5000 J/kg
and moderate shear. Soundings show inverted V cap eroding by late
afternoon and could see some isolated thunderstorms developing. If
they do develop then damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard.
Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday due to the presence of
mid and upper level clouds. However temperatures will range from
the  lower 90s along the Nebraska border to around 101 near central
Kansas. Dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 will combine with
the temperatures to produce heat indices of 99 to 104.

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected on Sunday in the
wake of the front and this should continue into mid week with
northwest flow aloft and high pressure over much of the Central
Plains. The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the western counties having the best chances. Both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate mid level waves moving through the
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions. Any isolated thunderstorms during morning
hours will remain north of the terminals. Winds will become
southeast at 8 to 12 KTS with higher gusts after 14Z and continue
through the afternoon and evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 240849
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Water vapor imagery this morning showed the broad mid-level ridge
still anchored across the Rockies, resulting in northwesterly aloft
across the forecast area. A few weak embedded shortwaves were noted
along the northern edge of the ridge axis over South Dakota. While
these waves should progress southeastward along the ridge axis, most
models show any precipitation that develops from these waves to
remain north of the forecast area. It`s worth noting though that
recent early morning runs of the HRRR and RAP have started to show
precipitation from these shortwaves diving further south along the
Nebraska/Iowa border and skimming near far northeast Kansas by this
afternoon. However, due to the agreement of the synoptic models in
keeping precipitation north of the area and with the fairly poor
performance of these short-range models over the last few days, have
gone with a dry forecast for today but will continue to monitor
these shortwaves through the day.

Surface high pressure was situated over the region early this
morning, resulting in light winds, mostly clear skies, and cooler
conditions as temperatures dropped into the 60s. This surface high
gradually will shift eastward toward the Ohio River Valley, with
winds shifting to the southeast today and further to the south
overnight. These southeasterly winds today will keep temperatures
near or slightly below the seasonal normals as afternoon highs
should reach into the mid 80s east to low 90s west.

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough and closed-off low
moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest, and models show this low
progressing eastward along the U.S./Canadian border over the next
few days. This advancing low will help to flatten the mid-level
ridge currently in place, resulting in the area of surface low
pressure currently over the northern Rockies being pushed southward
into the High Plains tonight. Model soundings show high clouds
building in over the region tonight, so this cloud cover combined
with southerly winds will result in better insolation and keep low
temperatures tonight a few degrees warmer in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Friday, the upper level ridge builds into northeast Kansas with the
edge of the westerlies over Missouri and Iowa. Thermal axis will
develop across the Central Plains ahead of a surface trough/front
that is expected to slowly move across Nebraska and into north
central Kansas by Friday evening. Dew point temperatures in the
middle 60s in north central Kansas and near 70 in northeast Kansas
will combine with afternoon temperatures from the upper 90s in far
eastern counties to around 105 toward central Kansas to produce
afternoon heat indices of 104 to 109 and will likely need a heat
advisory for the day on Friday.

The frontal boundary will slowly move south Saturday and Saturday
night settling in southern Kansas by Sunday morning as the upper
level ridge is suppressed westward as an upper level trough moves
across southern Canada and the Northern Plains. A unstable airmass
develops across northern Kansas Saturday with CAPE of 2500-5000 J/kg
and moderate shear. Soundings show inverted V cap eroding by late
afternoon and could see some isolated thunderstorms developing. If
they do develop then damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard.
Saturday will be a little cooler than Friday due to the presence of
mid and upper level clouds. However temperatures will range from
the  lower 90s along the Nebraska border to around 101 near central
Kansas. Dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 will combine with
the temperatures to produce heat indices of 99 to 104.

Cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected on Sunday in the
wake of the front and this should continue into mid week with
northwest flow aloft and high pressure over much of the Central
Plains. The next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night and
Wednesday with the western counties having the best chances. Both
the GFS and ECMWF indicate mid level waves moving through the
northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions. Any isolated thunderstorms during morning
hours will remain north of the terminals. Winds will become
southeast at 8 to 12 KTS with higher gusts after 14Z and continue
through the afternoon and evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KDDC 240814
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...updated short term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Mainly clear VFR conditions are expected overnight. Despite higher
surface humidity levels, enough mixing and lack of sfc moisture
convergence will preclude the possibility of dense fog. Surface
winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots after 15 UTC with higher gusts
through the afternoon. A general lack of surface convergence and
model temperatures in the  15 to 20 degree C range in the 720-750 mb
layer are unfavorable for convection.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 101  73 101  71 /  10  10  10  10
EHA 100  72 101  71 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 101  73 101  72 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  74 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  98  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Russell






000
FXUS63 KDDC 240814
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...updated short term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Surface winds will shift from an easterly trajectory to a southerly
direction today. This will be in response to surface pressure falls
across the northern High Plains region. Models such as the NAM
indicate a diffuse dryline developing eastward in the afternoon with
dew points falling into the 50`s to a Dighton and Liberal line, or
perhaps even slightly farther east. With drier air in the western
sections, more efficient heating should occur behind the dryline
in turn supporting the warmer model solutions with temperatures
around 100 degrees. Higher moisture in central Kansas may limit
the maximum temperatures to the mid or even lower 90s this
afternoon. As a result the bias corrected NAM temperatures were
fused into this short term forecast. The NAMs warmer overnight lows
for tonight additionally were favored for the warmer lows across
much of southwest Kansas into Friday morning.

Convection appears unlikely this afternoon. A general lack of a
sharp dryline, and homogeneous southerly flow with impressively
warm air in the mid levels should inhibit deep moist convection.
The best chance for a storm would be isolated weakly forced
surface based storms that might approach extreme west central
Kansas in the evening from the higher terrain of Colorado.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Mainly clear VFR conditions are expected overnight. Despite higher
surface humidity levels, enough mixing and lack of sfc moisture
convergence will preclude the possibility of dense fog. Surface
winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots after 15 UTC with higher gusts
through the afternoon. A general lack of surface convergence and
model temperatures in the  15 to 20 degree C range in the 720-750 mb
layer are unfavorable for convection.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK 101  73 101  71 /  10  10  10  10
EHA 100  72 101  71 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 101  73 101  72 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  99  74 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  98  74 100  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KGLD 240751
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY RESIDUAL
CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KGLD 240751
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY RESIDUAL
CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KGLD 240751
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY RESIDUAL
CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KGLD 240751
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY RESIDUAL
CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KICT 240726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CNU COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STEEPENING
LEE TROUGH THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  74 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        91  73 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  74 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  75 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  97  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 240726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

GOOD SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA..AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 315K SURFACE INCREASES
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN SHOULD FLATTEN
OUT FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD ACROSS
KANSAS ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES LOOK TO PUSH ABOVE 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IF DEWPOINTS CAN
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES
COULD BE HOISTED BY LATER FORECAST UPDATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FOR THE AREA LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL PERHAPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT
EVEN THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING ALL THAT SPECTACULAR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DECENT MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL ALONG
700MB GRADIENT SUPPORTS GOING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFFECTING MAINLY
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION LINGER THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN COOLER.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CNU COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STEEPENING
LEE TROUGH THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  74 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  73 100  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        91  73 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  74 101  77 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      97  74 102  73 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          97  75 105  76 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       95  74 102  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  72  97  76 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            88  71  96  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  71  97  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 240616
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Mainly clear VFR conditions are expected overnight. Despite higher
surface humidity levels, enough mixing and lack of sfc moisture
convergence will preclude the possibility of dense fog. Surface
winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots after 15 UTC with higher gusts
through the afternoon. A general lack of surface convergence and
model temperatures in the  15 to 20 degree C range in the 720-750 mb
layer are unfavorable for convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 100  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  73 101  71 100 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  72 101  71 100 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  73 101  72 102 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  74 100  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
P28  74 100  75 102 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KDDC 240616
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Mainly clear VFR conditions are expected overnight. Despite higher
surface humidity levels, enough mixing and lack of sfc moisture
convergence will preclude the possibility of dense fog. Surface
winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots after 15 UTC with higher gusts
through the afternoon. A general lack of surface convergence and
model temperatures in the  15 to 20 degree C range in the 720-750 mb
layer are unfavorable for convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74 100  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  73 101  71 100 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  72 101  71 100 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  73 101  72 102 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  74 100  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
P28  74 100  75 102 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Russell






000
FXUS63 KGLD 240552
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT AND BE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INLAND. ULTIMATELY, THAT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE.

THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THU-SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY SUNDAY...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL START BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. STORMS
WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING OVER
FAR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KGLD 240552
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT AND BE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INLAND. ULTIMATELY, THAT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE.

THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THU-SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY SUNDAY...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL START BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. STORMS
WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING OVER
FAR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KGLD 240552
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT AND BE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INLAND. ULTIMATELY, THAT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE.

THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THU-SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY SUNDAY...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL START BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. STORMS
WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING OVER
FAR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KGLD 240552
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT AND BE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INLAND. ULTIMATELY, THAT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE.

THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THU-SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY SUNDAY...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL START BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. STORMS
WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING OVER
FAR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z-17Z AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY MAKING INTO
INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FEEL THE
CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE STORMS MAKING IT OVER
EITHER OF THE TAF SITES IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO LEAVE
MENTION OF CB AND TS OUT OF THE TAF THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KTOP 240449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions. Any isolated thunderstorms during morning
hours will remain north of the terminals. Winds will become
southeast at 8 to 12 KTS with higher gusts after 14Z and continue
through the afternoon and evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KICT 240420
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CNU COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STEEPENING
LEE TROUGH THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 240420
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. CNU COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. STEEPENING
LEE TROUGH THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS
TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232345
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light winds Tonight
will become southeasterly and increase to 10 to 14 KTS with higher
gusts during the late morning and afternoon hours of Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232345
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light winds Tonight
will become southeasterly and increase to 10 to 14 KTS with higher
gusts during the late morning and afternoon hours of Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232345
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light winds Tonight
will become southeasterly and increase to 10 to 14 KTS with higher
gusts during the late morning and afternoon hours of Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232345
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Light winds Tonight
will become southeasterly and increase to 10 to 14 KTS with higher
gusts during the late morning and afternoon hours of Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KGLD 232331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT AND BE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INLAND. ULTIMATELY, THAT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE.

THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THU-SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY SUNDAY...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL START BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. STORMS
WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING OVER
FAR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MCK AND GLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT BOTH LOCATIONS
BY 17Z ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART






000
FXUS63 KGLD 232331
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT AND BE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INLAND. ULTIMATELY, THAT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE.

THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THU-SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY SUNDAY...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL START BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. STORMS
WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING OVER
FAR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT MCK AND GLD
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT BOTH LOCATIONS
BY 17Z ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KDDC 232312 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions can be expected tonight into Thursday. An upper
level ridge will dominate the Central Plains with light southeast
winds becoming south to southwest at 15-25kt after 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
P28  71  98  74 100 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse






000
FXUS63 KDDC 232312 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions can be expected tonight into Thursday. An upper
level ridge will dominate the Central Plains with light southeast
winds becoming south to southwest at 15-25kt after 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
P28  71  98  74 100 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse






000
FXUS63 KDDC 232312 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions can be expected tonight into Thursday. An upper
level ridge will dominate the Central Plains with light southeast
winds becoming south to southwest at 15-25kt after 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
P28  71  98  74 100 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse






000
FXUS63 KDDC 232312 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
612 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions can be expected tonight into Thursday. An upper
level ridge will dominate the Central Plains with light southeast
winds becoming south to southwest at 15-25kt after 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  74 100 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
P28  71  98  74 100 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse






000
FXUS63 KICT 232304
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
604 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT
IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. STEEPENING LEE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 232304
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
604 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT
IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. STEEPENING LEE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 232304
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
604 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT
IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. STEEPENING LEE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 232304
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
604 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT. DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT
IN MVFR VSBYS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. STEEPENING LEE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  91  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  71  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  89  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  88  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  89  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 232049
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT AND BE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INLAND. ULTIMATELY, THAT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE.

THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THU-SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY SUNDAY...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL START BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. STORMS
WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING OVER
FAR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOULD END BEFORE 20Z AS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WITH COOLER...MORE STABLE
AIR IN PLACE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AT EITHER SITE AND EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL.
SMALL THREAT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JRM








000
FXUS63 KGLD 232049
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE STRONG UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE CWA IS FORECAST TO
FLATTEN OUT AND BE PUSHED SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST MOVES INLAND. ULTIMATELY, THAT
UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
REPOSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEK PROVIDING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE.

THE WARMEST PERIOD WILL BE THU-SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100. BY SUNDAY...A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN A COOLER PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL START BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES
FROM UTAH INTO COLORADO. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. STORMS
WILL ULTIMATELY MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING OVER
FAR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CWA. AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ON TOP OF AN
INCREASINGLY SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERAL EPISODES OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENTLY...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOULD END BEFORE 20Z AS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WITH COOLER...MORE STABLE
AIR IN PLACE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AT EITHER SITE AND EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL.
SMALL THREAT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JRM







000
FXUS63 KDDC 232048
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Winds will be easterly behind a weak cold front this afternoon and
then gradually shift to the southeast and south tonight and into
Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 02z
near KGCK along the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  69 100  73 101 /  10   0  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 100 /  20   0  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  20   0  10  10
HYS  69 100  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
P28  71  98  74  98 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch






000
FXUS63 KDDC 232048
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

The shortwave trough bringing surface high pressure and cooler
weather to western Kansas this afternoon will progress southeastward
from the northern plains today into the Midwest by Thursday. Upper
level ridging will generally persist across the southern Rockies.
However, a strong shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest this
afternoon will progress northeastward into Alberta and Saskatchewan
by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, surface pressures will
fall across the central and northern plains as a result of downslope
mid level flow across the Rockies. This will result in a rapid
return to southerly winds tonight and Thursday along with warmer
temperatures. Lows tonight will be prevented from falling much below
the upper 60s by winds that will generally be around 10 kts while
shifting to the southeast and south.  I opted to undercut the NAM 2m
temperatures for Thursday since this model has a consistent warm
bias in this wetter summer. Dodge City may hit 100F or fall just
short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Winds will be easterly behind a weak cold front this afternoon and
then gradually shift to the southeast and south tonight and into
Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 02z
near KGCK along the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  69 100  73 101 /  10   0  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 100 /  20   0  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  20   0  10  10
HYS  69 100  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
P28  71  98  74  98 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TSRA currently well south and west should not have an impact on
terminals for the forecast period. VFR prevails as east to
northeast winds gradually veer towards the southeast by 14Z as
high pressure shifts eastward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Observational analysis at 1930Z show two clusters of thunderstorms
originating from weak embedded shortwave troughs within the upper
northwest flow. The first wave brought needed rain to portions of
the area before strengthening into an MCS and pushing southward into
OK at this hour. The second cluster that had produced severe storms
in NE this morning was continuing to weaken southward as it
encounters more stable air across north central KS.

For tonight, surface high pressure slides southward towards east
central KS as light northeast winds veer to the southeast by
morning. Good radiational cooling near the ridge axis drop overnight
lows to the low and middle 60s. Upper ridge centered over the
panhandles edges slightly eastward late tonight creating some
uncertainty on where the next weak shortwave trough will track as it
rounds the eastern edge of the ridge. High resolution, short-term
guidance in addition to the latest few runs of the ECMWF, GEM, and
NAM are slower and further east with the wave compared to the GFS.
Cannot rule out scattered thunderstorms developing over the high
plains, tracking southeast, and clipping portions of northeast KS
Thursday morning. Inserted slight chances through mid morning based
on variability of guidance and subsequent weak nature of the wave.
Severe storms are not expected with a weakly unstable airmass. Sfc
trough slowly deepens over the High Plains during the afternoon
tomorrow increasing southeast winds between 15 and 20 mph sustained
over north central KS. Stronger mixing through the BL and increasing
warm advection from the west will boost temps back to the low 90s
for north central KS. Much of east central and northeast areas stay
slightly cooler in the middle to upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Weak system moving across Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Thursday night may brush far northeast KS and have slight chance
thunderstorms in that area overnight. Subsidence just northeast of
upper ridge axis and southwest low-level winds should make Friday
another hot day with highs reaching the upper 90s far east with
100 to 105 over central KS. Heat advisory will likely be needed as
dewpoints in the east will be at least 70 with mid 60s over north
central. This combined with the high temperatures should result in
peak afternoon heat index values around 105 or higher.

A greater amount of mid and high clouds on Saturday should keep
temperatures a little cooler, in the mid to upper 90s, but dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 will still result in a sultry day
and heat indices in the upper 90s to 100 to 105. Inverted trough
and surface front move across the area on Saturday. Warm temps
aloft and resultant cap will likely limit convective coverage but
any storms that do form would have the chance for strong winds.

After the front moves out of the area Saturday night, cooler and
drier conditions are in the forecast through Tuesday. Northwest
flow aloft with no discernable shortwaves will result in highs
mostly in the 80s and lows Sunday night and Monday night in the
60s.

The next chance of precipitation in this northwest flow would
appear to be Tuesday night and Wednesday, with the best chance in
north central KS. Still, models are not consistent in where
precipitation with this system will be as the ECMWF confines the
rain chances to the western half of the state while the last two
runs of the GFS have a more amplified shortwave trough coming
through and would spread precip chances eastward. This also
corresponds with 12Z GFS Ensemble.  Given uncertainty, just have
slight chance POPs during that time period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TSRA currently well south and west should not have an impact on
terminals for the forecast period. VFR prevails as east to
northeast winds gradually veer towards the southeast by 14Z as
high pressure shifts eastward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KICT 232003
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ANOTHER PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN KS. ANTICIPATING THE LATTER ACTIVITY TO
POSSIBLY AFFECT RSL-SLN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
ONLY WENT VCTS AT SLN. DIURNAL COOLING IN CONCERT WITH MOIST LOW-
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH STOUT/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  92  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         67  99  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  92  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  90  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  89  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  90  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 232003
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED VERY EARLY THIS MORNING
FOLLOWED THE MID LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT AND ARE NOW TRACKING
ACROSS EASTERN OK. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY
BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH NOW STRETCHES FROM WEST-CENTRAL
KS...INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE DECAYING STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TREND WITH A WEAK MCV EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING. THIS
REMNANT ENERGY MAY SPARK A FEW ISO SHOWERS/STORMS BUT NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 315K SURFACE. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO
BEHAVE LIKE THEY DID THIS MORNING AND FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PLACE THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RETURN
FLOW AND A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRI AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH SPIKING TO AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO SAG
SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE
TRANSITION TO MORE NW FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE MID LEVEL
MONSOONAL ENERGY/MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN.

BY SUN MORNING THERE IS NOW GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MON-WED. WILL RUN WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES
FOR THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
WEST ALLOWING SOME WEAK UPPER UPPER ENERGY TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ANOTHER PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN KS. ANTICIPATING THE LATTER ACTIVITY TO
POSSIBLY AFFECT RSL-SLN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
ONLY WENT VCTS AT SLN. DIURNAL COOLING IN CONCERT WITH MOIST LOW-
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH STOUT/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  94  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          67  93  73 101 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        67  92  73 100 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  93  74 101 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         67  99  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  98  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          68  97  75 104 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  95  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  92  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         66  90  71  97 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            66  89  71  96 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  90  71  97 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 231932
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOULD END BEFORE 20Z AS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WITH COOLER...MORE STABLE
AIR IN PLACE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AT EITHER SITE AND EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL.
SMALL THREAT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JRM






000
FXUS63 KGLD 231932
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON-THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

600 DM RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH 19Z ANALYSIS INDICATING STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAD CLEARED ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH TEMPS FALLING
10-15 DEGREES AS IT PASSED AND ALL CUMULUS FIELDS ON WARM SIDE OF
THIS...THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE REMOVED POPS
FOR THE PERIOD. SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN AS LAST NIGHT WITH STRONG
H85-H7 DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. WHILE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS THERE...THINGS ARE MUCH
MORE CAPPED AS PER CINH FORECASTS THAN LAST NIGHT. WITH SREF
INDICATING ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS NOT INITIATING ELEVATED CONVECTION DO NOT FEEL
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOULD END BEFORE 20Z AS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WITH COOLER...MORE STABLE
AIR IN PLACE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AT EITHER SITE AND EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL.
SMALL THREAT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JRM







000
FXUS63 KDDC 231904
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for the long term forecast...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Winds will be easterly behind a weak cold front this afternoon and
then gradually shift to the southeast and south tonight and into
Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 02z
near KGCK along the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch






000
FXUS63 KDDC 231904
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for the long term forecast...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Friday will continue to be hot, with most all of the CWA reaching
100+F degrees.  Dewpoints Friday will be only in the mid 50s west to
the lower 60s east, resulting in Heat Indices in the 98 to 102F
range.  If surface moisture changes prior to then, a Heat Advisory
may be required.  The strong upper high pressure over west Texas,
southwest Kansas will stay on the weaker side of the upper flow, and
lee side troughs will likely form each day in eastern Colorado and
wander east into western Kansas as the afternoon/evening progresses.
Slight thunderstorm chances will begin Saturday afternoon, and
increase Saturday night when there is a weak upper level wave coming
east and southeast near our area.  Sunday will see more chances for
thunderstorms in our west near the lee side trough, with better
chances for convection across all of our CWA Sunday night.  The
upper support for any thunderstorms will relax Monday, but come back
across as an upper wave Tuesday.  The 40 percent chances for storms
in Day 7, Tuesday night seems a bit high, but I can live with the
CONSALL Pops for now.

As for temperatures, little changed since yesterday.  As stated
above, 100+ max temps are forecast for Friday, and it will be about
as hot on Saturday with max temps at or just above 100F to 101F
degrees. Sunday through Wednesday will show a slight cooling trend
as clouds and precip chances increase.  Highs will be in the lower
to middle 90s Sunday, cooling to the middle 80s by Wednesday.
Minimum temperatures will average in the lower to mid 70s through
Saturday night, then average in the middle to upper 60s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Winds will be easterly behind a weak cold front this afternoon and
then gradually shift to the southeast and south tonight and into
Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 02z
near KGCK along the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69 100  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  69 101  73 101 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  70 100  72 101 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  73 101 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  71  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 231758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Winds will be easterly behind a weak cold front this afternoon and
then gradually shift to the southeast and south tonight and into
Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 02z
near KGCK along the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  20  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Finch






000
FXUS63 KDDC 231758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Winds will be easterly behind a weak cold front this afternoon and
then gradually shift to the southeast and south tonight and into
Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible between 21 and 02z
near KGCK along the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  20  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Finch







000
FXUS63 KICT 231746
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE FROM PARCELS LIFTED FROM 800-700MB...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ROLL
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS. EVEN THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...SEE NO REASON WHY IT
WON`T HOLD TOGETHER INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NE MAY ALSO HOLD TOGETHER AND GET INTO
CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON...AS IT ROLLS SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ANOTHER PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN KS. ANTICIPATING THE LATTER ACTIVITY TO
POSSIBLY AFFECT RSL-SLN FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW
ONLY WENT VCTS AT SLN. DIURNAL COOLING IN CONCERT WITH MOIST LOW-
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH STOUT/GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMPING UP BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KGLD 231740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGE H5 TROUGH CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. INTENSITY HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AND THINK TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
WEAK FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER.

STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CREATED FAIRLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AS IT MOVED THROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH.

TEMPS ARE VERY MUCH A CONCERN AS STORMS...OUTFLOW AND FOG HAVE
HELD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. HAVE LOWERED MAXES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT WITH STRONG JULY SUN THINK THINGS WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH CLEARING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF AREA OF H8 TO H75 PERSISTENT
WAA. WHILE FORCING GENERALLY DECREASES INTO THE CWA AS WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CURRENT RAP DEPICTION OF NEARLY 3000
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH LOCATED AROUND H725. WHILE
FORCING MAY BE DIMINISHED...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE INCREASED/REFINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THERE STILL IS
A LOT OF QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOUKLD END BEFORE 20Z AS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WITH COOLER...MORE STABLE
AIR IN PLACE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AT EITHER SITE AND EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL.
SMALL THREAT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JRM






000
FXUS63 KGLD 231740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGE H5 TROUGH CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. INTENSITY HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AND THINK TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
WEAK FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER.

STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CREATED FAIRLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AS IT MOVED THROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH.

TEMPS ARE VERY MUCH A CONCERN AS STORMS...OUTFLOW AND FOG HAVE
HELD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. HAVE LOWERED MAXES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT WITH STRONG JULY SUN THINK THINGS WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH CLEARING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF AREA OF H8 TO H75 PERSISTENT
WAA. WHILE FORCING GENERALLY DECREASES INTO THE CWA AS WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CURRENT RAP DEPICTION OF NEARLY 3000
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH LOCATED AROUND H725. WHILE
FORCING MAY BE DIMINISHED...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE INCREASED/REFINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THERE STILL IS
A LOT OF QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOUKLD END BEFORE 20Z AS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WITH COOLER...MORE STABLE
AIR IN PLACE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AT EITHER SITE AND EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL.
SMALL THREAT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JRM







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TSRA currently well south and west should not have an impact on
terminals for the forecast period. VFR prevails as east to
northeast winds gradually veer towards the southeast by 14Z as
high pressure shifts eastward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TSRA currently well south and west should not have an impact on
terminals for the forecast period. VFR prevails as east to
northeast winds gradually veer towards the southeast by 14Z as
high pressure shifts eastward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KGLD 231655
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGE H5 TROUGH CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. INTENSITY HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AND THINK TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
WEAK FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER.

STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CREATED FAIRLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AS IT MOVED THROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH.

TEMPS ARE VERY MUCH A CONCERN AS STORMS...OUTFLOW AND FOG HAVE
HELD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. HAVE LOWERED MAXES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT WITH STRONG JULY SUN THINK THINGS WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH CLEARING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF AREA OF H8 TO H75 PERSISTENT
WAA. WHILE FORCING GENERALLY DECREASES INTO THE CWA AS WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CURRENT RAP DEPICTION OF NEARLY 3000
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH LOCATED AROUND H725. WHILE
FORCING MAY BE DIMINISHED...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE INCREASED/REFINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THERE STILL IS
A LOT OF QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN







000
FXUS63 KGLD 231655
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGE H5 TROUGH CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. INTENSITY HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AND THINK TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
WEAK FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER.

STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CREATED FAIRLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AS IT MOVED THROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH.

TEMPS ARE VERY MUCH A CONCERN AS STORMS...OUTFLOW AND FOG HAVE
HELD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. HAVE LOWERED MAXES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT WITH STRONG JULY SUN THINK THINGS WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH CLEARING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF AREA OF H8 TO H75 PERSISTENT
WAA. WHILE FORCING GENERALLY DECREASES INTO THE CWA AS WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CURRENT RAP DEPICTION OF NEARLY 3000
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH LOCATED AROUND H725. WHILE
FORCING MAY BE DIMINISHED...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE INCREASED/REFINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THERE STILL IS
A LOT OF QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN







000
FXUS63 KGLD 231655
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGE H5 TROUGH CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. INTENSITY HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AND THINK TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
WEAK FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER.

STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CREATED FAIRLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AS IT MOVED THROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH.

TEMPS ARE VERY MUCH A CONCERN AS STORMS...OUTFLOW AND FOG HAVE
HELD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. HAVE LOWERED MAXES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT WITH STRONG JULY SUN THINK THINGS WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH CLEARING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF AREA OF H8 TO H75 PERSISTENT
WAA. WHILE FORCING GENERALLY DECREASES INTO THE CWA AS WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CURRENT RAP DEPICTION OF NEARLY 3000
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH LOCATED AROUND H725. WHILE
FORCING MAY BE DIMINISHED...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE INCREASED/REFINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THERE STILL IS
A LOT OF QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN







000
FXUS63 KGLD 231655
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGE H5 TROUGH CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. INTENSITY HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AND THINK TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
WEAK FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER.

STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CREATED FAIRLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AS IT MOVED THROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH.

TEMPS ARE VERY MUCH A CONCERN AS STORMS...OUTFLOW AND FOG HAVE
HELD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. HAVE LOWERED MAXES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT WITH STRONG JULY SUN THINK THINGS WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH CLEARING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF AREA OF H8 TO H75 PERSISTENT
WAA. WHILE FORCING GENERALLY DECREASES INTO THE CWA AS WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CURRENT RAP DEPICTION OF NEARLY 3000
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH LOCATED AROUND H725. WHILE
FORCING MAY BE DIMINISHED...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE INCREASED/REFINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THERE STILL IS
A LOT OF QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN







000
FXUS63 KICT 231450
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE FROM PARCELS LIFTED FROM 800-700MB...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ROLL
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS. EVEN THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...SEE NO REASON WHY IT
WON`T HOLD TOGETHER INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NE MAY ALSO HOLD TOGETHER AND GET INTO
CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON...AS IT ROLLS SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

ADK

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200 UTC-15 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL
HAS MATERIALIZED. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT EAST
FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOS...MOST LIKELY AT KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200-1500 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED AT KRSL. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MOST LIKELY AT
KCNU. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 231450
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REGIME. 12Z TOPEKA SOUNDING INDICATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE FROM PARCELS LIFTED FROM 800-700MB...ALONG WITH MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. CONSEQUENTLY...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ROLL
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS. EVEN THOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD WITH TIME...SEE NO REASON WHY IT
WON`T HOLD TOGETHER INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST NE MAY ALSO HOLD TOGETHER AND GET INTO
CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON...AS IT ROLLS SOUTHEAST ALONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.

ADK

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200 UTC-15 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL
HAS MATERIALIZED. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT EAST
FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOS...MOST LIKELY AT KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200-1500 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED AT KRSL. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MOST LIKELY AT
KCNU. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  40  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  30  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
824 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 820 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Amended KMHK for cluster of TSRA that has managed to push
southeast just north and west of KMHK. Location of activity is
close enough to include mention of light TSRA through 1430Z. Gust
front ahead of convection will allow for VRB winds near 14 kts
sustained. Occasional gusts near 25 kts are expected through 1430Z
before activity weakens. Thereafter, cigs remain VFR through the
period. Winds will prevail out of the northeast today before
veering to the southeast overnight with the eastward shift of the
surface high pressure.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
824 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 820 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Amended KMHK for cluster of TSRA that has managed to push
southeast just north and west of KMHK. Location of activity is
close enough to include mention of light TSRA through 1430Z. Gust
front ahead of convection will allow for VRB winds near 14 kts
sustained. Occasional gusts near 25 kts are expected through 1430Z
before activity weakens. Thereafter, cigs remain VFR through the
period. Winds will prevail out of the northeast today before
veering to the southeast overnight with the eastward shift of the
surface high pressure.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KGLD 231306
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
706 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF AREA OF H8 TO H75 PERSISTENT
WAA. WHILE FORCING GENERALLY DECREASES INTO THE CWA AS WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CURRENT RAP DEPICTION OF NEARLY 3000
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH LOCATED AROUND H725. WHILE
FORCING MAY BE DIMINISHED...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE INCREASED/REFINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THERE STILL IS
A LOT OF QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN






000
FXUS63 KGLD 231306
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
706 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF AREA OF H8 TO H75 PERSISTENT
WAA. WHILE FORCING GENERALLY DECREASES INTO THE CWA AS WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CURRENT RAP DEPICTION OF NEARLY 3000
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH LOCATED AROUND H725. WHILE
FORCING MAY BE DIMINISHED...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE INCREASED/REFINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THERE STILL IS
A LOT OF QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN







000
FXUS63 KGLD 231154
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN







000
FXUS63 KGLD 231154
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN








000
FXUS63 KICT 231135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200 UTC-15 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL
HAS MATERIALIZED. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT EAST
FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOS...MOST LIKELY AT KCNU. -HOWERTON


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200-1500 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED AT KRSL. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MOST LIKELY AT
KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 231135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200 UTC-15 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL
HAS MATERIALIZED. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LIGHT EAST
FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN RELATIVELY MOIST
ATMOS...MOST LIKELY AT KCNU. -HOWERTON


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WILL NEED TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT KRSL AND RAIN SHOWERS AT KSLN
AS SMALL AREA OF STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. TOUGH CALL ON LOW CLOUDS WITH NAM HINTING AT 1200-1500 UTC
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BEHIND FRONT FOR STRATUS. SO FAR LOW CLOUDS
HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED AT KRSL. WITH SUNRISE...CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. LIGHT EAST FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...MOST LIKELY AT
KCNU. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 231127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR conditions will be observed across the HYS terminal over the
next couple of hours with low clouds AOA010. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions across the terminals throughout the day. Winds will be
shifting from the northeast this morning to the southeast by this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  30  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KDDC 231127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR conditions will be observed across the HYS terminal over the
next couple of hours with low clouds AOA010. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions across the terminals throughout the day. Winds will be
shifting from the northeast this morning to the southeast by this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  30  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KDDC 231127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR conditions will be observed across the HYS terminal over the
next couple of hours with low clouds AOA010. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions across the terminals throughout the day. Winds will be
shifting from the northeast this morning to the southeast by this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  30  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KDDC 231127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR conditions will be observed across the HYS terminal over the
next couple of hours with low clouds AOA010. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions across the terminals throughout the day. Winds will be
shifting from the northeast this morning to the southeast by this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  30  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KGLD 231126
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN







000
FXUS63 KGLD 231126
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR GLD/MCK THROUGH 14Z...MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM MVFR DOWN TO LIFR
WITH FOG 4-6SM AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM BKN004-010. AFT 14Z VFR
CONDITIONS WITH FEW020-030 SCT200-300. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR GLD 01Z-
06Z WITH SCT060CB. WINDS RANGE FROM ENE TO ESE 5-10KTS BECM SSE
10-20KTS BY 14Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN








000
FXUS63 KTOP 231121
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the 12z TAFs, cigs should remain VFR through the period. Winds
will prevail out of the northeast today before veering to the
southeast overnight with the eastward shift of the surface high
pressure.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 231121
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

For the 12z TAFs, cigs should remain VFR through the period. Winds
will prevail out of the northeast today before veering to the
southeast overnight with the eastward shift of the surface high
pressure.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 230952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
452 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated to introduce status, patchy fog, and a possible
isolated thunderstorm in north central Kansas this morning ...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 230952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
452 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated to introduce status, patchy fog, and a possible
isolated thunderstorm in north central Kansas this morning ...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Status has been increasing in areal coverage north of a cold front
that at 0930UTC extend from near Scott City to Larned. Given the
temperature and dew point depression at Hays some patchy fog may
also be possible around daybreak. In addition to the increasing
clouds an area of slow moving thunderstorms continue to move
south/southeast out of Nebraska into northern Kansas early this
morning. Models struggling to pick up on this early morning
convection, however current storm motion suggests bulk of
precipitation will stay east of Ellis county. Will insert slight
chance for convection between 12z and 14z in eastern Ellis county
given the more southern storm track of a few storms west of
Phillipsburg. Storm crossing north central Kansas this morning is
expected to weaken as they move south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
P28  97  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KTOP 230828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

As of early this morning, the cold front had tracked just south of
the forecast area, with surface high pressure centered over the
Northern Plains spilling southward into the region behind this
front. While temperatures have cooled down some with the shift to
northerly winds from the frontal passage, moisture has pooled behind
the front, resulting in dewpoint temperatures rising into the low/mid
70s. These dewpoints combined with temperatures in the 70s to near
80 degrees was keeping overnight heat index values in the mid/upper
80s for much of east central Kansas. This pooling moisture had
shifted south of far northern Kansas so dewpoint temperatures had
dropped into the upper 60s/near 70 degrees. Water vapor imagery
showed the fairly-unchanged mid-level ridge centered over the
central and southern Rockies with a few weak embedded shortwaves
developing along the northeastern edge of the ridge axis. These
shortwaves, with the help of some weak isentropic lift, have been
able to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms early this
morning across southwest South Dakota and over southwest/south
central Nebraska. These storms were tracking southeast and if they
are able to sustain themselves, there is a chance that a few storms
may skim near the southwest part of the forecast area, so have
slight chance PoPs in for that area through around sunrise.

For today, surface high pressure will continue to spread across the
region with light northeasterly winds keeping temperatures
near-normal in the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s southwest.
Cooler dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees are expected
today, so heat indices should only reach into the low/mid 90s this
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should shift a bit further east into
the Central Plains today and tonight. Most models are showing the
potential for additional embedded shortwaves to develop along the
northeastern edge of the ridge today and tonight, however there is
still some uncertainty with regards to the exact location and
tracking of these waves. In general, these shortwaves should stay
north of the forecast area, however the NAM and GFS both suggest
that storms from these waves may track into far northern Kansas
overnight into Thursday morning. Due to the uncertainty in any
storms from these shortwaves actually tracking into the forecast
area overnight, have kept a dry forecast at this time for today and
tonight but will need to continue to monitor the trends with these
shortwaves through the day. The surface high pressure will start
shifting east of the area tonight with winds gradually veering to
the southeast. Models are trending a bit cooler with temperatures
tonight, so have lows ranging from the mid 60s east to the upper 60s
west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Lift over a warm frontal boundary along with weak upper level wave
may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas Thursday morning. Models also show some weak isentropic lift
in the 305K-310K layer as well early Thursday morning. By afternoon
the upper support will come to an end as the wave moves off into
Missouri in the northwest flow aloft. The warm front will move from
west to east across the cwa on Thursday and expect highs in the mid
90s in north central Kansas with lower 80s in the far northeast
corner.

An upper level high will push east through Thursday night through
Friday. Models suggest another wave will move southeast and bring a
chance of thunderstorms back into the forecast mainly across
northeast Kansas. On Friday a boundary will move into the northern
counties by the evening hours. Thermal gradient increases across the
cwa with temperatures once again reaching around the century mark
and with humidity will yield heat indices around 105 degrees Friday
afternoon and will likely need a heat advisory.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains
on Saturday and slowly move a cold front southward across the
Central Plains. The upper trough will shove the upper high back to
the west over the Rockies with northwest flow reestablishing over
much of the Central Plains. Little in the way of upper support or
forcing until Saturday night and Sunday and have kept a chance of
showers and thunderstorms for these periods. Beyond Sunday the ridge
builds in the western states as the upper trough deepens over the
eastern CONUS. This will bring cooler temperatures back for the
start of the week and continue into midweek with below normal
temperatures for late July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. KTOP may see some
patchy ground fog develop around sunrise. The NAM shows BKN MVFR
ceilings at the terminals from 11Z through 14Z...but most
mesoscale models do not.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Gargan








000
FXUS63 KGLD 230816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MCK MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 09Z-11Z AS THE
REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 11Z-13Z AT MCK. MCK AND GLD WITH OTHERWISE
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART








000
FXUS63 KGLD 230816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MCK MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 09Z-11Z AS THE
REMNANTS OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE MAY
BE PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 11Z-13Z AT MCK. MCK AND GLD WITH OTHERWISE
SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KDDC 230806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
P28  98  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 230806
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front will move south across western Kansas early
this morning as a 500mb high moves slowly east across Colorado.
850mb temperature trends from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday
indicating only a few degree drop in 850mb temperatures behind
this front and mainly across north central Kansas. Given these
temperature trends the previous forecast looks on track with
temperatures similar across far western/southwestern Kansas while
only having a 3 to 5F temperature drop further east/northeast. Based
on moisture profiles late Wednesday/Wednesday night and track of
any subtle wave rotating around the upper high precipitation
chances still appear very small.

Tonight a southeasterly flow at around 10 mph will develop as a
trough of low pressure at the surface develops across eastern
Colorado. Given the expected dew points returning to south central
and western Kansas overnight and an easterly wind at around 10
knots the lows are expected to range from the upper 60s to around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A dry pattern is expected through Friday as an upper level ridge
builds across the Southern and Central Rockies. Weak shortwaves will
move around the periphery of this ridge, but they look trek well
north of the area and not affect southwest Kansas. In addition, warm
mid level temperatures should also cap most convection from
initialing across the higher terrain in eastern Colorado. This will
leave partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Towards the
surface, a trough of low pressure will be located across the KS/CO
border through Friday morning allowing southerly winds to be felt
across western Kansas. As for temperatures, highs Thursday and
Friday look to reach to around 100 degrees with lows in the lower
70s.

A slight cool down is expected this weekend into the beginning of
next week as winds shift to more of an easterly direction and storm
chances increase. The upper level ridge slides westward during this
time frame as an upper level low moves down through Central Canada
and the Northern Plains Saturday then into the Great Lakes region
Sunday. This low then spins around eastern Canada and the Northeast
United States for the first part of next week. This feature will
help push a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday
and be the focal point of where convection could initiate. Upslope
flow is then expected Sunday into Monday which will help with
increased low level moisture and continued chances of thunderstorms.
Winds then shift to the south during the middle of next week as lee
troughing develops across eastern Colorado. Highs Saturday are once
again expected to be around 100 degrees then decreasing into the 90s
Sunday. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s are then forecasted for
Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower 70s Sunday morning
decreasing to the mid to upper 60s for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected given that the 00Z NAM BUFR soundings
indicating limited mid to high level moisture will be present across
western Kansas as an upper high slowly moves east across Colorado
through late Wednesday. A weak cold front will move across western
Kansas early Wednesday morning. Winds at less than 10knots will
shift from the south to the northeast as this front passes. Light
northeast winds will then gradually veer to the southeast by late
day as a surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the
Rockies and the surface ridge axis moves east towards Iowa and
Missouri.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  69 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  96  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  96  70 100  72 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  97  69 101  73 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  94  69  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
P28  98  71  99  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KICT 230739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 230739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 230739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 230739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO OKLAHOMA BUT STILL SHOULD SEE HUMID CONDITIONS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER LOW AND MAY REMAIN
SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT ALONG 700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO
SPARK OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON
THURSDAY AND FLATTEN OUT COME FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAT BUILDING AGAIN
OVER KANSAS. HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SUNDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
STILL LOOKS WEAK. MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      94  70  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        93  69  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  71  95  75 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      93  70  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          94  68  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       94  69  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     94  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         91  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            90  67  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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