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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260514
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S.  SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 260514
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S.  SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 260500
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830Z shows the axis of an upper level ridge
centered over the county warning area (cwa). At the surface a
weak frontal boundary was slowly edging southward across the east
central counties. This boundary will become stationary to the south
later this afternoon/evening before lifting back northward overnight
and Sunday as a warm front. As it does...deeper moisture pooled
along and south of the front will surge north and northwestward with
the front through Sunday. This should result in the development of
stratus and fog across much of the central and northern portions of
the cwa after midnight...lifting northward and out of the cwa by
noon Sunday with sunny skies and gusty southerly winds. This will
allow for an axis of unseasonably warm air to expand northeastward
across the cwa resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s which is
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper trough will move across the Rockies and into the Plains on
Monday sweeping a cold front across central and much of northeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Soundings still show a rather
stout EML for much of the day capping off surface based convection.
Still expect the front to move through dry across north central
Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas. Upper trough moves out across
the Plains Monday night and exits early Tuesday morning. Post
frontal showers are possible and soundings still show some elevated
instability so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms for
northeast and east central Kansas Monday night. Cooler and drier air
will move in from the northeast Tuesday with more seasonal
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s.

For the rest of the week northwest flow will continue across the
Plains. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture is rather meager
and is more favorable for precipitation to the east and southeast of
the forecast area of eastern Kansas. In the wake of Thursdays trough
cool high pressure will build south into Kansas along with below
normal temperatures in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with lows
falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Confidence remains moderate in IFR to LIFR ceilings and vis tonight
at TAF sites. Conditions should deteriorate after 07Z with some
combination of a ceiling around 1000 ft and vis below 5SM. Then
expect continued reduction of both cig and vis with IFR appearing
likely after 09Z. These conditions should remain in place until
around 14Z when increased mixing will bring a rapid improvement to
SKC with gusty winds. Also expect LLWS tonight with winds from the
east at sfc and southwest winds to 30 kts around 1000 ft AGL.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 260500
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1200 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830Z shows the axis of an upper level ridge
centered over the county warning area (cwa). At the surface a
weak frontal boundary was slowly edging southward across the east
central counties. This boundary will become stationary to the south
later this afternoon/evening before lifting back northward overnight
and Sunday as a warm front. As it does...deeper moisture pooled
along and south of the front will surge north and northwestward with
the front through Sunday. This should result in the development of
stratus and fog across much of the central and northern portions of
the cwa after midnight...lifting northward and out of the cwa by
noon Sunday with sunny skies and gusty southerly winds. This will
allow for an axis of unseasonably warm air to expand northeastward
across the cwa resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s which is
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper trough will move across the Rockies and into the Plains on
Monday sweeping a cold front across central and much of northeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Soundings still show a rather
stout EML for much of the day capping off surface based convection.
Still expect the front to move through dry across north central
Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas. Upper trough moves out across
the Plains Monday night and exits early Tuesday morning. Post
frontal showers are possible and soundings still show some elevated
instability so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms for
northeast and east central Kansas Monday night. Cooler and drier air
will move in from the northeast Tuesday with more seasonal
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s.

For the rest of the week northwest flow will continue across the
Plains. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture is rather meager
and is more favorable for precipitation to the east and southeast of
the forecast area of eastern Kansas. In the wake of Thursdays trough
cool high pressure will build south into Kansas along with below
normal temperatures in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with lows
falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Confidence remains moderate in IFR to LIFR ceilings and vis tonight
at TAF sites. Conditions should deteriorate after 07Z with some
combination of a ceiling around 1000 ft and vis below 5SM. Then
expect continued reduction of both cig and vis with IFR appearing
likely after 09Z. These conditions should remain in place until
around 14Z when increased mixing will bring a rapid improvement to
SKC with gusty winds. Also expect LLWS tonight with winds from the
east at sfc and southwest winds to 30 kts around 1000 ft AGL.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 260443
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1143 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO,
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO DENVER, AND FROM YUMA,
AZ EASTWARD TO DALLAS, TX.  AT THE SURFACE AT 18Z TODAY, THERE WAS
ONE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE AREAS, FROM NORTHERN WYOMING TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR KANSAS CITY, AND THEN STRETCHING FARTHER
EAST AS A COLD FRONT.  THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, AS WELL AS
HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE ONCE THE
DIURNAL HEATING RELAXES THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL SCALE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALSO, THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME WARM AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WE KNOW DDC SET A
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 90F DEGREES (VS 88F RECORD) SO FAR.
MORE RECORDS COULD BE ESTABLISHED OR SET TODAY, WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AVAILABLE.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, AND COULD BE THE
FOCUS BOUNDARY FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-70 TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONLY
INDICATING 3 TO 5 SM IN MY CWA, BUT WITH DENSER FOG TO OUR NORTH.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY AREAS, TO THE LOWER 50S FROM
HAYS TO CIMARRON TO LIBERAL, TO AS HIGH AS 59F DEGREES IN THE
PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CAUSE SURFACE WINDS
TO BLOW FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15MPH GUSTING TO 23MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH, BUT I THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL ONLY BE THIN IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE MID
80S FROM HAYS TO GARDEN CITY TO JOHNSON CITY AND POINTS NORTHWEST,
TO THE UPPER 80S FROM NEAR LARNED TO KINSLEY TO MEADE, AND TO THE
LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHEAST FROM ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO PRATT TO
MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING IT
FEEL COOLER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. SKIES THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10KT BECOME WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 14-18Z AND INCREASE TO
15-25KT EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KHYS. SOME CIRROSTRATUS MOVES IN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  87  53  71 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  49  86  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  53  88  52  68 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  90  53  70 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  84  52  67 /   0   0   0  10
P28  58  91  60  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 260443
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1143 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO,
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO DENVER, AND FROM YUMA,
AZ EASTWARD TO DALLAS, TX.  AT THE SURFACE AT 18Z TODAY, THERE WAS
ONE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE AREAS, FROM NORTHERN WYOMING TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR KANSAS CITY, AND THEN STRETCHING FARTHER
EAST AS A COLD FRONT.  THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, AS WELL AS
HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE ONCE THE
DIURNAL HEATING RELAXES THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL SCALE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALSO, THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME WARM AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WE KNOW DDC SET A
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 90F DEGREES (VS 88F RECORD) SO FAR.
MORE RECORDS COULD BE ESTABLISHED OR SET TODAY, WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AVAILABLE.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, AND COULD BE THE
FOCUS BOUNDARY FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-70 TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONLY
INDICATING 3 TO 5 SM IN MY CWA, BUT WITH DENSER FOG TO OUR NORTH.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY AREAS, TO THE LOWER 50S FROM
HAYS TO CIMARRON TO LIBERAL, TO AS HIGH AS 59F DEGREES IN THE
PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CAUSE SURFACE WINDS
TO BLOW FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15MPH GUSTING TO 23MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH, BUT I THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL ONLY BE THIN IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE MID
80S FROM HAYS TO GARDEN CITY TO JOHNSON CITY AND POINTS NORTHWEST,
TO THE UPPER 80S FROM NEAR LARNED TO KINSLEY TO MEADE, AND TO THE
LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHEAST FROM ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO PRATT TO
MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING IT
FEEL COOLER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. SKIES THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10KT BECOME WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 14-18Z AND INCREASE TO
15-25KT EXCEPT LIGHTER WINDS AT KHYS. SOME CIRROSTRATUS MOVES IN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  87  53  71 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  49  86  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  53  88  52  68 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  90  53  70 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  84  52  67 /   0   0   0  10
P28  58  91  60  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...KRUSE



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 260442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG POTENTIAL IS STILL A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...FROM
CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD. BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...THE
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER MIXING AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING TO NOSE AND STRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DESPITE SOME INCREASE
IN CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY SUNDAY PM...PLANNING TO MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS (RECORD LEVELS IN SPOTS).

AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
KS MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING SOUTHEAST KS MON EVE.
THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE VERY MARGINAL...TARGETING SOUTHEAST KS WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER CAPPING CONVECTION POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER MENTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVE.
OTHERWISE...BARRING POST-FRONTAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...THEN UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. BY SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO
BE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THEN POTENTIALLY COOLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. THE CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
AREA IN THIS PATTERN ARE VERY LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING WILL BE SOME VERY
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA. COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS OF 2-5SM AND POSSIBLY
SOME IFR OR LIFR CIGS DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE FOG CAN GET. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE BETWEEN 10-14Z/SUN WITH
CIGS NEAR 600 FEET AGL.

NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG CHANCES ELSEWHERE...AS SURFACE WINDS
WILL STAY UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AND KEEP THINGS
MIXED...WHICH WILL KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. WILL STILL KEEP A
TEMPO MVFR FOG CHANCE GOING FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KSLN TAFS.

OTHERWISE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
MORNING PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  93  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      58  92  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          59  92  61  76 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        59  92  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  92  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         55  88  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      56  89  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          57  89  58  75 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       58  92  60  74 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         59  87  62  81 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            59  87  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  87  63  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 260442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG POTENTIAL IS STILL A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...FROM
CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD. BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...THE
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER MIXING AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING TO NOSE AND STRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DESPITE SOME INCREASE
IN CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY SUNDAY PM...PLANNING TO MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS (RECORD LEVELS IN SPOTS).

AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
KS MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING SOUTHEAST KS MON EVE.
THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE VERY MARGINAL...TARGETING SOUTHEAST KS WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER CAPPING CONVECTION POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER MENTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVE.
OTHERWISE...BARRING POST-FRONTAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...THEN UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. BY SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO
BE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THEN POTENTIALLY COOLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. THE CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
AREA IN THIS PATTERN ARE VERY LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING WILL BE SOME VERY
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE IN THIS AREA. COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS OF 2-5SM AND POSSIBLY
SOME IFR OR LIFR CIGS DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE FOG CAN GET. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE KCNU TAF SITE BETWEEN 10-14Z/SUN WITH
CIGS NEAR 600 FEET AGL.

NOT AS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG CHANCES ELSEWHERE...AS SURFACE WINDS
WILL STAY UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AND KEEP THINGS
MIXED...WHICH WILL KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. WILL STILL KEEP A
TEMPO MVFR FOG CHANCE GOING FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KSLN TAFS.

OTHERWISE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
MORNING PATCHY FOG BURNS OFF.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  93  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      58  92  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          59  92  61  76 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        59  92  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  92  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         55  88  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      56  89  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          57  89  58  75 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       58  92  60  74 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         59  87  62  81 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            59  87  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  87  63  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 260000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
700 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO,
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO DENVER, AND FROM YUMA,
AZ EASTWARD TO DALLAS, TX.  AT THE SURFACE AT 18Z TODAY, THERE WAS
ONE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE AREAS, FROM NORTHERN WYOMING TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR KANSAS CITY, AND THEN STRETCHING FARTHER
EAST AS A COLD FRONT.  THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, AS WELL AS
HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE ONCE THE
DIURNAL HEATING RELAXES THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL SCALE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALSO, THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME WARM AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WE KNOW DDC SET A
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 90F DEGREES (VS 88F RECORD) SO FAR.
MORE RECORDS COULD BE ESTABLISHED OR SET TODAY, WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AVAILABLE.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, AND COULD BE THE
FOCUS BOUNDARY FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-70 TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONLY
INDICATING 3 TO 5 SM IN MY CWA, BUT WITH DENSER FOG TO OUR NORTH.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY AREAS, TO THE LOWER 50S FROM
HAYS TO CIMARRON TO LIBERAL, TO AS HIGH AS 59F DEGREES IN THE
PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CAUSE SURFACE WINDS
TO BLOW FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15MPH GUSTING TO 23MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH, BUT I THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL ONLY BE THIN IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE MID
80S FROM HAYS TO GARDEN CITY TO JOHNSON CITY AND POINTS NORTHWEST,
TO THE UPPER 80S FROM NEAR LARNED TO KINSLEY TO MEADE, AND TO THE
LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHEAST FROM ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO PRATT TO
MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING IT
FEEL COOLER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. SKIES THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY A SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AT 00Z SUNDAY, WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THAT WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL SO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY
AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT HAYS
THERE WILL BE SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  87  53  71 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  49  86  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  53  88  52  68 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  90  53  70 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  84  52  67 /   0   0   0  10
P28  59  91  60  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S.  SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

MCK WILL START OUT VFR AND TRANSITION TO IFR AFTER 09Z WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO SATURATE WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT A DROP TO
LIFR AND OCCASIONALLY VLIFR BETWEEN ABOUT 11Z-14Z WITH A QUICK
TRANSITION BACK TO VFR BY 15Z AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KICT 252334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG POTENTIAL IS STILL A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...FROM
CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD. BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...THE
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER MIXING AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING TO NOSE AND STRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DESPITE SOME INCREASE
IN CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY SUNDAY PM...PLANNING TO MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS (RECORD LEVELS IN SPOTS).

AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
KS MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING SOUTHEAST KS MON EVE.
THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE VERY MARGINAL...TARGETING SOUTHEAST KS WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER CAPPING CONVECTION POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER MENTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVE.
OTHERWISE...BARRING POST-FRONTAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...THEN UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. BY SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO
BE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THEN POTENTIALLY COOLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. THE CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
AREA IN THIS PATTERN ARE VERY LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING WILL BE SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS SURFACE
WINDS DECOUPLE.  COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS OF 2-5SM AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR
OR LIFR CIGS DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE FOG CAN GET. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE NEAR THE KCNU/KICT AND KHUT TAF SITES BETWEEN
10-14Z/SUN WITH CIGS NEAR 600 FEET AGL.

OTHERWISE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  93  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      58  92  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          59  92  61  76 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        59  92  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  92  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         55  88  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      56  89  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          57  89  58  75 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       58  92  60  74 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         59  87  62  81 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            59  87  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  87  63  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 252330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830Z shows the axis of an upper level ridge
centered over the county warning area (cwa). At the surface a
weak frontal boundary was slowly edging southward across the east
central counties. This boundary will become stationary to the south
later this afternoon/evening before lifting back northward overnight
and Sunday as a warm front. As it does...deeper moisture pooled
along and south of the front will surge north and northwestward with
the front through Sunday. This should result in the development of
stratus and fog across much of the central and northern portions of
the cwa after midnight...lifting northward and out of the cwa by
noon Sunday with sunny skies and gusty southerly winds. This will
allow for an axis of unseasonably warm air to expand northeastward
across the cwa resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s which is
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper trough will move across the Rockies and into the Plains on
Monday sweeping a cold front across central and much of northeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Soundings still show a rather
stout EML for much of the day capping off surface based convection.
Still expect the front to move through dry across north central
Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas. Upper trough moves out across
the Plains Monday night and exits early Tuesday morning. Post
frontal showers are possible and soundings still show some elevated
instability so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms for
northeast and east central Kansas Monday night. Cooler and drier air
will move in from the northeast Tuesday with more seasonal
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s.

For the rest of the week northwest flow will continue across the
Plains. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture is rather meager
and is more favorable for precipitation to the east and southeast of
the forecast area of eastern Kansas. In the wake of Thursdays trough
cool high pressure will build south into Kansas along with below
normal temperatures in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with lows
falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Have moderate confidence in substantial aviation impacts through
morning. Expect fog and/or low ceilings to develop after 05Z, and
likely closer to 07Z. There is potential for vis to fall below
1/2SM with timing of the best chance for this between 09Z and 14Z.
At the same time, have some potential for the lowest cig/vis
conditions to develop near or just north of TAF sites and improve
as a front approaches TAF sites by morning. Most likely forecast
is for IFR or worse conditions for several hours through 15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 252040
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
340 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830Z shows the axis of an upper level ridge
centered over the county warning area (cwa). At the surface a
weak frontal boundary was slowly edging southward across the east
central counties. This boundary will become stationary to the south
later this afternoon/evening before lifting back northward overnight
and Sunday as a warm front. As it does...deeper moisture pooled
along and south of the front will surge north and northwestward with
the front through Sunday. This should result in the development of
stratus and fog across much of the central and northern portions of
the cwa after midnight...lifting northward and out of the cwa by
noon Sunday with sunny skies and gusty southerly winds. This will
allow for an axis of unseasonably warm air to expand northeastward
across the cwa resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s which is
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper trough will move across the Rockies and into the Plains on
Monday sweeping a cold front across central and much of northeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Soundings still show a rather
stout EML for much of the day capping off surface based convection.
Still expect the front to move through dry across north central
Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas. Upper trough moves out across
the Plains Monday night and exits early Tuesday morning. Post
frontal showers are possible and soundings still show some elevated
instability so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms for
northeast and east central Kansas Monday night. Cooler and drier air
will move in from the northeast Tuesday with more seasonal
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s.

For the rest of the week northwest flow will continue across the
Plains. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture is rather meager
and is more favorable for precipitation to the east and southeast of
the forecast area of eastern Kansas. In the wake of Thursdays trough
cool high pressure will build south into Kansas along with below
normal temperatures in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with lows
falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Vfr conditions will prevail through 03z/26 with generally clear skies
and no vsby restrictions. However...a warm front will develop
across southern KS and lift northward thru the terminals overnight
and early Sunday. This will likely result in an area of mvfr stratus
and fog developing towards 06z...that will lower to IFR/LIFR
conditions in the 08-14z time frame before becoming VFR again by
15z as the warm front lifts north of the terminals. Easterly winds
under 10 kts will persist through 06z then becoming more south to
southeast by 15z and increasing as the warm front lifts north of
the terminals.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KDDC 252024
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO,
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO DENVER, AND FROM YUMA,
AZ EASTWARD TO DALLAS, TX.  AT THE SURFACE AT 18Z TODAY, THERE WAS
ONE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE AREAS, FROM NORTHERN WYOMING TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR KANSAS CITY, AND THEN STRETCHING FARTHER
EAST AS A COLD FRONT.  THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, AS WELL AS
HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE ONCE THE
DIURNAL HEATING RELAXES THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL SCALE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALSO, THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME WARM AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WE KNOW DDC SET A
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 90F DEGREES (VS 88F RECORD) SO FAR.
MORE RECORDS COULD BE ESTABLISHED OR SET TODAY, WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AVAILABLE.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, AND COULD BE THE
FOCUS BOUNDARY FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-70 TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONLY
INDICATING 3 TO 5 SM IN MY CWA, BUT WITH DENSER FOG TO OUR NORTH.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY AREAS, TO THE LOWER 50S FROM
HAYS TO CIMARRON TO LIBERAL, TO AS HIGH AS 59F DEGREES IN THE
PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CAUSE SURFACE WINDS
TO BLOW FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15MPH GUSTING TO 23MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH, BUT I THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL ONLY BE THIN IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE MID
80S FROM HAYS TO GARDEN CITY TO JOHNSON CITY AND POINTS NORTHWEST,
TO THE UPPER 80S FROM NEAR LARNED TO KINSLEY TO MEADE, AND TO THE
LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHEAST FROM ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO PRATT TO
MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING IT
FEEL COOLER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. SKIES THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  87  53  71 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  49  86  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  53  88  52  68 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  90  53  70 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  84  52  67 /   0   0   0  10
P28  59  91  60  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KGLD 252008
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
208 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES THROUGH HAS GOOD DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE
IS LACKING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY LOW LEVELS WITH
MARGINAL SATURATION AT MID LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE TROUGH STILL
OVER THE AREA, THE GFS AND NAM TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE FA
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC BUT WILL
KEEP THEM GOING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY MONDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35KTS. WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO LOW END
ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH
CLOUDS CLEARING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, WIDESPREAD FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR A HARD FREEZE IN EASTERN COLORADO.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP
FROST IN THE GRIDS AND MONITOR THE HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL.

SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE EXITING TROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA SO POPS WILL BE NIL.

MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE EASTERN FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN COOL TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND INTO THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP POPS NIL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY COOLING
TO THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 30S.  SOME FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING IT
FEEL COOLER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. SKIES THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  87  53  71 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  49  86  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  53  85  52  68 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  87  53  70 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  82  52  67 /   0   0   0  10
P28  59  89  60  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KICT 251933
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
233 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG POTENTIAL IS STILL A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WARM FRONT...FROM
CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD. BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...THE
WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER MIXING AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE.
THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING TO NOSE AND STRENGTHEN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DESPITE SOME INCREASE
IN CIRROFORM CLOUDS BY SUNDAY PM...PLANNING TO MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS (RECORD LEVELS IN SPOTS).

AN UPPER TROUGH PRESENTLY ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
KS MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE FRONT CLEARING SOUTHEAST KS MON EVE.
THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE VERY MARGINAL...TARGETING SOUTHEAST KS WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER CAPPING CONVECTION POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDER MENTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVE.
OTHERWISE...BARRING POST-FRONTAL SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...THEN UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. BY SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW POSITION. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO
BE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER
THE PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THEN POTENTIALLY COOLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A CANADIAN AIRMASS BUILDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. THE CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
AREA IN THIS PATTERN ARE VERY LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN AFTER 04-06Z. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS IMPACTING
KCNU. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14-15Z ON SUN WITH VFR
RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  93  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      58  92  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          59  92  61  76 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        59  92  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  92  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         55  87  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      56  88  52  71 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          57  88  58  75 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       58  92  60  74 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  88  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
CHANUTE         59  87  62  81 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            59  87  62  80 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  87  63  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KGLD 251853
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251853
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER SE
COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STALLED FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA...EXTENDING
FROM NE COLORADO TO CENTRAL KANSAS (ROUGHLY ALONG A KAKO-KGLD-
KHYS LINE).

WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
CWA...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN
SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT.

REGARDING DENSE FOG...NAM/RUC/HRRR RH AND VIS FIELDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS.
LOCATION OF FRONT AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LIKELY BE CRITICAL TO DENSE FOG LOCATION...IN ADDITION NEAR
INVERSION LAYER WINDS 10-20KT MAY ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP
VIS HIGHER UNTIL LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AROUND SUNRISE.
THERE IS ALSO INDICATION FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND CURRENT
GFS THAT FRONT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW
LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD WITH SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOCATION IS ENOUGH OF
A QUESTION TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF ADVISORY DURING DAYTIME
UPDATE PACKAGE.

TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY IS ALSO COMPLICATED BY POSITION OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ALOFT NORTH OF THIS
FRONT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS/FOG WOULD ALSO THROW A WRENCH INTO
THINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEAST. OVERALL I THINK TEMPS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS NORTH OF THE
FRONT JUST LIKE TODAY. EITHER WAY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST PARTS OF THE CWA SUNDAY...AND IF FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD SUPPORT RECORD HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KTOP 251736 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Vfr conditions will prevail through 03z/26 with generally clear skies
and no vsby restrictions. However...a warm front will develop
across southern KS and lift northward thru the terminals overnight
and early Sunday. This will likely result in an area of mvfr stratus
and fog developing towards 06z...that will lower to IFR/LIFR
conditions in the 08-14z time frame before becoming VFR again by
15z as the warm front lifts north of the terminals. Easterly winds
under 10 kts will persist through 06z then becoming more south to
southeast by 15z and increasing as the warm front lifts north of
the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 251736 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Vfr conditions will prevail through 03z/26 with generally clear skies
and no vsby restrictions. However...a warm front will develop
across southern KS and lift northward thru the terminals overnight
and early Sunday. This will likely result in an area of mvfr stratus
and fog developing towards 06z...that will lower to IFR/LIFR
conditions in the 08-14z time frame before becoming VFR again by
15z as the warm front lifts north of the terminals. Easterly winds
under 10 kts will persist through 06z then becoming more south to
southeast by 15z and increasing as the warm front lifts north of
the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KICT 251721
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO FLUCTUATE GREATLY...ESPECIALLY AT KSLN WHERE
THEY HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4SM FG TO AS HIGH AS 3SM JUST SINCE 12Z.
AS SUCH...KSLN HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INSERT A RELATIVELY WIDE RANGE
OF VSBYS THRU 15Z. SUCH ACTIONS MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED AT KICT WHERE
VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO FLUCTUATE...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. BE ALERT FOR
FREQUENT UPDATES THRU ~15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING BRIEFLY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
TODAY. SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A
SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A NEAR RECORD HIGH AT
WICHITA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN. AN UPPER TROF WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING SUNDAY AND ACROSS MID-AMERICA
ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH PASSAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER FAIRLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE FLOW VEERS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER/MODEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ITS
WAKE HELPING TO FORM A DEEPER MEAN LONGWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER PLAINS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN AFTER 04-06Z. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS IMPACTING
KCNU. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 14-15Z ON SUN WITH VFR
RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      86  58  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          84  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        86  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  60  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         84  55  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  56  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          84  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       85  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         84  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            84  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 251721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS MONDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND UKMET...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITION/STRENGTH. THE
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM
WITH SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY DAY. MODELS WERE NOT QUITE
WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY WITH THE RECORD WARMTH. THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE THE COOLEST WITH THE NWP THE WARMEST
AND MUCH WARMER THAN THEM. 850 MB CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT
SUPPORTS HAVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING A RECORD IS
BURLINGTON. THAT RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1963.

FOR TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF A LARGE FOG/STRATUS SHIELD. THE PATCHY FOG THAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE AND KEPT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED SINCE FOG FORMATION HAS A BAD HABIT OF BEING FURTHER
WEST THAN DEPICTED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE DAY BUT
TEND TO BE LIGHT AND FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. SO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHAPING UP. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALSO START
BECOMING FAVORABLE AS WELL. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL PROBABLY END UP JUST BEING CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
MAIN JET FURTHER SOUTH AND A SECONDARY JET NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERN JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP A COUPLED
JET THAT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH FAVORABLE THETA LAPSE RATES REMAINS AROUND
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MODEL OUTPUT. SO AS DAY SHIFT ASSESSED YESTERDAY...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LIFT.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB IS LACKING. EVEN
WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD ENOUGH
THAT BELIEVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH. LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS DEPICTION OF THIS AND BASED ON THE
REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION...WILL LEAVE THE POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE DAY INTO EVENING ALONE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE SPEEDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID
RAMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. NEW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
MUCH COOLER...AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES...FORECAST THAT IS IN
THERE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HOW FAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET. NAM HOLDS ONTO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
06Z WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATING A STABLE AIR MASS AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS A LITTLE MORE. DID NOT GO AS COLD
AS I COULD HAVE DUE TO A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MY
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT THIS SEASON WITH MAYBE A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FROST MENTION AND ADJUST THE AREA BASED ON
THE NEW LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS 18-20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT AT BOTH
KGLD/KMCK.

FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT (GENERALLY AFTER 08-09Z) ALONG AND NORTH OF
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE NEAR
KMCK WHERE NAM/SREF/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. INITIALLY MIXING MAY KEEP VIS HIGHER AND MAINLY LOW
STRATUS...HOWEVER AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE AND MIXING DIMINISHES I
EXPECT VIS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNRISE. FOG MAY REACH AS FAR
WEST AS KGLD...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT GUIDANCE IS KEEPING VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I INTRODUCED
LIFR GROUP BY 12Z AT KMCK BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE.

GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT GLD. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION LOWER TD VALUES TO ADVECT EAST WHICH COMBINED
WITH SOLAR HEATING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH FOG.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251713
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.

FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  87  49  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  88  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  84  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251713
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.

FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  87  49  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  88  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  84  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KICT 251242
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
742 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING BRIEFLY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
TODAY. SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A
SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A NEAR RECORD HIGH AT
WICHITA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN. AN UPPER TROF WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING SUNDAY AND ACROSS MID-AMERICA
ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH PASSAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER FAIRLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE FLOW VEERS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER/MODEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ITS
WAKE HELPING TO FORM A DEEPER MEAN LONGWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER PLAINS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...

VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO FLUCTUATE GREATLY...ESPECIALLY AT KSLN WHERE
THEY HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4SM FG TO AS HIGH AS 3SM JUST SINCE 12Z.
AS SUCH...KSLN HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INSERT A RELATIVELY WIDE RANGE
OF VSBYS THRU 15Z. SUCH ACTIONS MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED AT KICT WHERE
VSBYS ARE BEGINNING TO FLUCTUATE...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. BE ALERT FOR
FREQUENT UPDATES THRU ~15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      86  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          84  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        86  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         84  56  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  57  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          84  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       85  59  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         84  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            84  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 251150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING BRIEFLY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
TODAY. SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A
SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A NEAR RECORD HIGH AT
WICHITA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN. AN UPPER TROF WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING SUNDAY AND ACROSS MID-AMERICA
ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH PASSAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER FAIRLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE FLOW VEERS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER/MODEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ITS
WAKE HELPING TO FORM A DEEPER MEAN LONGWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER PLAINS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRSL ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE LIFR STATUS
WITH WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FG TIL ~15Z WHEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED. AFTER FOG DISSIPATES EXCELLENT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
WITH CLEAR SKIES...UNLIMITED VSBYS & LIGHT WINDS THAT`LL BECOME E
TO SE <10KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      86  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          84  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        86  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         84  56  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  57  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          84  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       85  59  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         84  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            84  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 251150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING BRIEFLY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
TODAY. SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A
SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A NEAR RECORD HIGH AT
WICHITA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN. AN UPPER TROF WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING SUNDAY AND ACROSS MID-AMERICA
ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH PASSAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER FAIRLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE FLOW VEERS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER/MODEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ITS
WAKE HELPING TO FORM A DEEPER MEAN LONGWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER PLAINS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRSL ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE LIFR STATUS
WITH WIDESPREAD 1/4SM FG TIL ~15Z WHEN RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED. AFTER FOG DISSIPATES EXCELLENT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
WITH CLEAR SKIES...UNLIMITED VSBYS & LIGHT WINDS THAT`LL BECOME E
TO SE <10KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      86  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          84  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        86  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         84  56  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  57  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          84  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       85  59  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         84  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            84  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 251149
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
649 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.

FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE CREEPING UP INTO THE PRATT AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THEN SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  86  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  82  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...HUTTON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251149
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
649 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.

FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE CREEPING UP INTO THE PRATT AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE BUT THEN SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  86  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  82  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...HUTTON




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251114
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS MONDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND UKMET...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITION/STRENGTH. THE
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM
WITH SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY DAY. MODELS WERE NOT QUITE
WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY WITH THE RECORD WARMTH. THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE THE COOLEST WITH THE NWP THE WARMEST
AND MUCH WARMER THAN THEM. 850 MB CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT
SUPPORTS HAVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING A RECORD IS
BURLINGTON. THAT RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1963.

FOR TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF A LARGE FOG/STRATUS SHIELD. THE PATCHY FOG THAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE AND KEPT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED SINCE FOG FORMATION HAS A BAD HABIT OF BEING FURTHER
WEST THAN DEPICTED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE DAY BUT
TEND TO BE LIGHT AND FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. SO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHAPING UP. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALSO START
BECOMING FAVORABLE AS WELL. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL PROBABLY END UP JUST BEING CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
MAIN JET FURTHER SOUTH AND A SECONDARY JET NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERN JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP A COUPLED
JET THAT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH FAVORABLE THETA LAPSE RATES REMAINS AROUND
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MODEL OUTPUT. SO AS DAY SHIFT ASSESSED YESTERDAY...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LIFT.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB IS LACKING. EVEN
WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD ENOUGH
THAT BELIEVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH. LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS DEPICTION OF THIS AND BASED ON THE
REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION...WILL LEAVE THE POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE DAY INTO EVENING ALONE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE SPEEDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID
RAMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. NEW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
MUCH COOLER...AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES...FORECAST THAT IS IN
THERE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HOW FAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET. NAM HOLDS ONTO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
06Z WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATING A STABLE AIR MASS AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS A LITTLE MORE. DID NOT GO AS COLD
AS I COULD HAVE DUE TO A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MY
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT THIS SEASON WITH MAYBE A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FROST MENTION AND ADJUST THE AREA BASED ON
THE NEW LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT KGLD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
KMCK VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
AFTER 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT THE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME EVEN LOWER. LATER
FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251114
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS MONDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND UKMET...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITION/STRENGTH. THE
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM
WITH SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY DAY. MODELS WERE NOT QUITE
WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY WITH THE RECORD WARMTH. THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE THE COOLEST WITH THE NWP THE WARMEST
AND MUCH WARMER THAN THEM. 850 MB CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT
SUPPORTS HAVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING A RECORD IS
BURLINGTON. THAT RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1963.

FOR TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF A LARGE FOG/STRATUS SHIELD. THE PATCHY FOG THAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE AND KEPT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED SINCE FOG FORMATION HAS A BAD HABIT OF BEING FURTHER
WEST THAN DEPICTED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE DAY BUT
TEND TO BE LIGHT AND FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. SO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHAPING UP. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALSO START
BECOMING FAVORABLE AS WELL. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL PROBABLY END UP JUST BEING CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
MAIN JET FURTHER SOUTH AND A SECONDARY JET NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERN JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP A COUPLED
JET THAT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH FAVORABLE THETA LAPSE RATES REMAINS AROUND
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MODEL OUTPUT. SO AS DAY SHIFT ASSESSED YESTERDAY...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LIFT.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB IS LACKING. EVEN
WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD ENOUGH
THAT BELIEVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH. LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS DEPICTION OF THIS AND BASED ON THE
REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION...WILL LEAVE THE POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE DAY INTO EVENING ALONE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE SPEEDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID
RAMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. NEW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
MUCH COOLER...AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES...FORECAST THAT IS IN
THERE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HOW FAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET. NAM HOLDS ONTO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
06Z WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATING A STABLE AIR MASS AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS A LITTLE MORE. DID NOT GO AS COLD
AS I COULD HAVE DUE TO A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MY
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT THIS SEASON WITH MAYBE A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FROST MENTION AND ADJUST THE AREA BASED ON
THE NEW LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AT KGLD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
KMCK VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
AFTER 06Z...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT THE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME EVEN LOWER. LATER
FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THAT POTENTIAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 251112
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog at TAF sites is patchy, but dense. Fog banks drifting over the
airfields at times will make for prevailing visby less than 3
miles with patchy dense fog at TAF sites. Will carry a tempo for
TOP/MHK given proximity of airfield to water. Winds north through
southeast become more southerly overnight and will not add a group
for that at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ012-024-
026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 251112
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Fog at TAF sites is patchy, but dense. Fog banks drifting over the
airfields at times will make for prevailing visby less than 3
miles with patchy dense fog at TAF sites. Will carry a tempo for
TOP/MHK given proximity of airfield to water. Winds north through
southeast become more southerly overnight and will not add a group
for that at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ012-024-
026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KGLD 250826
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS MONDAY...AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
PACIFIC. THIS TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...THE CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
GFS AND UKMET...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER RIDGE POSITION/STRENGTH. THE
SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...CANADIAN AND NAM
WITH SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOKS TO BE A SUNNY DAY. MODELS WERE NOT QUITE
WARM ENOUGH YESTERDAY WITH THE RECORD WARMTH. THE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE THE COOLEST WITH THE NWP THE WARMEST
AND MUCH WARMER THAN THEM. 850 MB CHANGE AND BIAS ADJUSTMENT
SUPPORTS HAVING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.

THE ONLY SITE THAT HAS A CHANCE OF REACHING A RECORD IS
BURLINGTON. THAT RECORD WAS 84 SET IN 1963.

FOR TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO BE ON
THE EDGE OF A LARGE FOG/STRATUS SHIELD. THE PATCHY FOG THAT THE
DAY SHIFT PUT IN LOOKS REASONABLE AND KEPT. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED SINCE FOG FORMATION HAS A BAD HABIT OF BEING FURTHER
WEST THAN DEPICTED.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SOME FOG AND STRATUS IN THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR THE DAY BUT
TEND TO BE LIGHT AND FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. ONCE AGAIN SHOULD
SEE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW A GOOD WARMUP. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
WOULD INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY. SO KEPT THE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE NIGHT WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHAPING UP. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALSO START
BECOMING FAVORABLE AS WELL. PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL PROBABLY END UP JUST BEING CLOUDS AND
MAYBE A SPRINKLE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED JET STRUCTURE IN PLACE WITH THE
MAIN JET FURTHER SOUTH AND A SECONDARY JET NOT TOO FAR TO OUR
NORTH. SOUTHERN JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET IS NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH LOOKS TO SET UP A COUPLED
JET THAT AFFECTS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

ABOVE MENTIONED JET SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF
THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH FAVORABLE THETA LAPSE RATES REMAINS AROUND
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE REPRESENTED WELL BY
THE MODEL OUTPUT. SO AS DAY SHIFT ASSESSED YESTERDAY...RATHER
IMPRESSIVE LIFT.

HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ESPECIALLY BELOW 700 MB IS LACKING. EVEN
WITH THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND LAPSE RATES ARE GOOD ENOUGH
THAT BELIEVE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH. LIKE THE DAY SHIFTS DEPICTION OF THIS AND BASED ON THE
REASONING ABOVE AND COLLABORATION...WILL LEAVE THE POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE DAY INTO EVENING ALONE.

PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. LOOKS
LIKE SPEEDS STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID
RAMP UP THE WINDS A BIT. NEW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
MUCH COOLER...AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES...FORECAST THAT IS IN
THERE. JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

HOW FAST PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT DURING THE NIGHT WILL
BE A BIG PLAYER ON HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET. NAM HOLDS ONTO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER THAT LOOKS OVERDONE. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
06Z WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES INDICATING A STABLE AIR MASS AS
SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SO EXPECT LITTLE CLOUD
COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MINS A LITTLE MORE. DID NOT GO AS COLD
AS I COULD HAVE DUE TO A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CLOUD COVER AND
COLLABORATION WITH MY NEIGHBORS. WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MY
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT THIS SEASON WITH MAYBE A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE FROST MENTION AND ADJUST THE AREA BASED ON
THE NEW LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA UNDER SOME NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME
WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT
FORECAST OF MID 50S TO MID 60S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH IS A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL. CONCERN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
SEEMS REASONABLE...SOME CONCERN THAT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH THAT DEVELOP AS SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO CURRENT VALUES...THEY MAY BE A LITTLE
"LESS COLD". WONT CHANGE THINGS UP TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY...MID AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 13F FROM
TUESDAYS READINGS SUPPORTING AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST. FROST AGAIN
POSSIBLE FOR SOME. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THIS WOULD TYPICALLY SUPPORT WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF LOW TO MID
60S...RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE AREA WHICH IMPACTS LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BOTH HIGH AND LOW. IF ONE WHERE TO BLEND THE
TWO 850MB TEMP FIELDS HIGHS WOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WHICH ISNT TOO FAR OFF FROM CURRENT FORECAST (LOW 60S). NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
10-15KTS BY 19Z WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
GLD FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WINDS AFTER 23Z AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250814
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP
MIXING OF WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELPING WITH THE
WARMING. BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK A PACIFIC ORIGIN COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS MY CWA AS A STRONG S/WV THROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE PASSING TROUGH (WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGINS). IF ALL PANS
OUT AS EXPECTED, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCENT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET LOCATED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST VIRGA SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND DECREASING CLOUD
COVER, DRYING AIR AND DECREASING WINDS, THE MIN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY SHOULD FALL BACK TO AT LEAST SEASONAL VALUES.

FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS SO THAT DRY WEATHER AND
TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  54  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  86  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  82  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 250811
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper flow over the Central Plains is transitioning to northwest as
upper low moves through the eastern Canadian provinces, with another
upper low moving onshore the Pac Northwest, boosting high pressure
over the Rockies.  Warm temperatures aloft also have moved eastward
over our forecast area as seen on past evening sounding.  A weak
surface high is nosing into northeast Kansas, creating a boundary
for moisture to pool on and bringing haze and fog to portions of the
area. Think this will diminish from NW to SE as southwest flow moves
overhead and drier air continues to undercut from the north.  Will
carry some patchy morning fog with areas in the low spots and river
valleys once again.

Temperatures warm nicely back toward the 80 degree mark for this
afternoon. Surface winds slowly shift around to the southeast as the
lee trof redevelops through early Sunday - which should keep mixing
up overnight enough for lows to remain in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

On Sunday the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward
across the US Canada border. The southwesterly flow and deeper
mixing during the day should allow highs to reach the low to mid
80s. Ahead of the approaching system the lee side trough will
deepen increasing the southwesterly flow across the area. Surface
winds pick up late morning to around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
30 mph, and last until sunrise especially in east central KS. The
trailing cold front is still forecast to move through the region on
Monday. The models agree well with the timing of the front, but
disagree on the development and placement of precip. Soundings show
mid level capping may prevent most areas from getting any rain
although the better chances remain in east central KS Monday
evening. Slight instability aloft keeps the potential for maybe some
isolated thunder within the activity. The only model which keeps
precip around through Tuesday morning is the ECMWF as the southern
extent of the shortwave energy within the trough axis passes
overhead. The only moisture available at that point will be in the
mid levels and associated with the trough itself.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. A few
embedded shortwaves within the flow will pass over the central US
mainly on Wednesday night and Thursday, but limited moisture, dry
low levels, and weak lift prevent any good chances for precip. It
will likely result in another front to move through the area. The
00Z ECMWF then takes a drastic change and drops a strong closed mid
level low from southern Canada into the mid MS valley. This results
in a strong push of cold air, and 850 mb temps around -5 C. The GFS
takes this system and deepens it over the eastern Great Lakes. It
does appear the cold front will bring another shot of cooler air
into the region none the less, therefore the temps for Friday
could be cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Main concern for the forecast period is fog potential overnight
through Sat. morning. Shallow MVFR fog occurring at KTOP will
lower to IFR and LIFR aft 09Z as patchy dense fog settles into the
low lying area. KFOE is more mixed with southwest winds around 6
kts through 09Z. Should expect these winds to weaken enough near
the surface trough axis to develop predominant MVFR visibilities.
Occasional IFR cigs are possible through sunrise where a TEMPO was
inserted. KMHK is more uncertain in fog development as latest
guidance is hinting at lower dewpoint temperatures just north of
the terminal. May still see patchy MVFR cigs however confidence is
low at this point. Expect fog to dissipate by 15Z with light winds
and VFR conditions through remainder of period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KICT 250745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A SURFACE TROF WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING BRIEFLY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR
TODAY. SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING...PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A
SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH A NEAR RECORD HIGH AT
WICHITA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN SOME AREAS AGAIN. AN UPPER TROF WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING SUNDAY AND ACROSS MID-AMERICA
ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH PASSAGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING MONDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER FAIRLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE FLOW VEERS
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SOMEWHAT HIGHER/MODEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES DURING TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ITS
WAKE HELPING TO FORM A DEEPER MEAN LONGWAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND LOWER PLAINS WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA THEN LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL VEER OUT TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      86  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          84  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        86  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         84  56  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  57  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          84  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       85  59  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         84  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            84  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 250609
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
109 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  53  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  86  53  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  82  52  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  59  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250505
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.

SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.

PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
10-15KTS BY 19Z WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT
GLD FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WINDS AFTER 23Z AT BOTH GLD AND MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250502
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  86  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  87  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KICT 250442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY LIGHT WINDS...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOMALOUSLY WARM
850-700 LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS NEAR RECORD LEVELS SATURDAY-SUNDAY
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. SOME HIGH-LEVEL CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MAY
INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/JET
STREAK PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
COUNTERED WITH STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MIXING.

THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE PROGRESSIVELY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ATTENDANT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH
SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH BEHIND IT. HOWEVER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL BE MARGINAL AND DIRECTED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. SO WE
EXPECT THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EASTWARD...LATE MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE THERE...AND THE
PROBABILITY OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW. ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH ANY
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE NET EFFECT
OF THE ABOVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES WILL BE DRIER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA THEN LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL VEER OUT TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        58  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         50  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          53  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         57  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            57  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 250438
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830z shows building upper ridge across the
intermountain west with high clouds spilling over the top of the
ridge and into the county warning area (cwa). This area of high
clouds will shift off to the southeast this evening leaving mostly
clear skies with light west southwest winds. A front now moving
into far northern NE will slowly progress southward into the far
northwest cwa by midnight and near the I 35 corridor by 12z Saturday.
In advance of the front...the light winds...clear skies and moisture
pooling ahead of the boundary could help to enhance areas of
fog...especially ahead of the front in low lying areas and near
rivers and lakes. This would primarily apply to the southeast 2/3 of
the cwa. Any fog/stratus that does develop should dissipate by mid
morning leaving mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day.
With the boundary then stalling across the southern cwa and
gradually washing out...no appreciable cooling of temperatures
should be noted. In fact...with more sunshine than
today...temperatures in many locations will warmer than today.
Highs should range from the upper 70s near the Nebraska border to
the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Upper ridge will slide off to the east on Sunday into the
Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft by Sunday night. Warm
advection and deeper mixing on Sunday should see highs in the lower
to middle 80s. The upper trough and associated jet will move
eastward across the Rockies Monday and into the Central Plains
Monday night and exiting on Tuesday. A cold front is forecast to
move through north central and northeast Kansas Monday and Monday
night. Deeper moisture and instability will be shunted off to the
southeast and east. Will maintain the highest pops in east central
Kansas and lower to the northwest. Atmosphere still appears to be
capped during the daytime on Monday so the front is expected to move
through dry most areas. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunderstorms will be Monday night and Tuesday. Models have sped up
a little and move the upper trough east of Kansas Tuesday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. Cooler seasonal temperatures
are then expected in the wake of the upper trough Tuesday and will
continue through Thursday. Another wave will move through the
northwest flow Wednesday night, but moisture will be limited and any
chance will be across the far eastern counties of northeast and east
central Kansas. Cool high pressure builds into the Central Plains
Thursday and Friday with highs on Friday in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Main concern for the forecast period is fog potential overnight
through Sat. morning. Shallow MVFR fog occurring at KTOP will
lower to IFR and LIFR aft 09Z as patchy dense fog settles into the
low lying area. KFOE is more mixed with southwest winds around 6
kts through 09Z. Should expect these winds to weaken enough near
the surface trough axis to develop predominant MVFR visibilities.
Occasional IFR cigs are possible through sunrise where a TEMPO was
inserted. KMHK is more uncertain in fog development as latest
guidance is hinting at lower dewpoint temperatures just north of
the terminal. May still see patchy MVFR cigs however confidence is
low at this point. Expect fog to dissipate by 15Z with light winds
and VFR conditions through remainder of period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KDDC 250016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
716 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS SURFACE
WINDS COMPLETELY DECOUPLE FROM THE WINDS JUST ALOFT. BY MID MORNING
SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LITTLE  THREAT OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  84  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  86  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...33




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242349
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.

SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.

PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z SATURDAY MORNING. BY 19Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 10-15KTS AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KTOP 242328
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830z shows building upper ridge across the
intermountain west with high clouds spilling over the top of the
ridge and into the county warning area (cwa). This area of high
clouds will shift off to the southeast this evening leaving mostly
clear skies with light west southwest winds. A front now moving
into far northern NE will slowly progress southward into the far
northwest cwa by midnight and near the I 35 corridor by 12z Saturday.
In advance of the front...the light winds...clear skies and moisture
pooling ahead of the boundary could help to enhance areas of
fog...especially ahead of the front in low lying areas and near
rivers and lakes. This would primarily apply to the southeast 2/3 of
the cwa. Any fog/stratus that does develop should dissipate by mid
morning leaving mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day.
With the boundary then stalling across the southern cwa and
gradually washing out...no appreciable cooling of temperatures
should be noted. In fact...with more sunshine than
today...temperatures in many locations will warmer than today.
Highs should range from the upper 70s near the Nebraska border to
the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Upper ridge will slide off to the east on Sunday into the
Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft by Sunday night. Warm
advection and deeper mixing on Sunday should see highs in the lower
to middle 80s. The upper trough and associated jet will move
eastward across the Rockies Monday and into the Central Plains
Monday night and exiting on Tuesday. A cold front is forecast to
move through north central and northeast Kansas Monday and Monday
night. Deeper moisture and instability will be shunted off to the
southeast and east. Will maintain the highest pops in east central
Kansas and lower to the northwest. Atmosphere still appears to be
capped during the daytime on Monday so the front is expected to move
through dry most areas. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunderstorms will be Monday night and Tuesday. Models have sped up
a little and move the upper trough east of Kansas Tuesday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. Cooler seasonal temperatures
are then expected in the wake of the upper trough Tuesday and will
continue through Thursday. Another wave will move through the
northwest flow Wednesday night, but moisture will be limited and any
chance will be across the far eastern counties of northeast and east
central Kansas. Cool high pressure builds into the Central Plains
Thursday and Friday with highs on Friday in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR to begin forecast period as weak boundary approaches from the
north. Drier air settles in behind the boundary where short term
guidance is indicating should stay north of terminals overnight.
This scenario would provide adequate surface moisture to develop
areas of fog between 09Z and 12Z. MVFR visibilities begin as early
as 06Z and fall between IFR and LIFR from 09Z onward. Visibility
clears to VFR around 15Z as light northeast winds veer towards the
east in the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KICT 242325
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY LIGHT WINDS...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOMALOUSLY WARM
850-700 LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS NEAR RECORD LEVELS SATURDAY-SUNDAY
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. SOME HIGH-LEVEL CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MAY
INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/JET
STREAK PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
COUNTERED WITH STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MIXING.

THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE PROGRESSIVELY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ATTENDANT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH
SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH BEHIND IT. HOWEVER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL BE MARGINAL AND DIRECTED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. SO WE
EXPECT THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EASTWARD...LATE MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE THERE...AND THE
PROBABILITY OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW. ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH ANY
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE NET EFFECT
OF THE ABOVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES WILL BE DRIER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS
TONIGHT...AND THE COMBINATION OF WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT COULD
GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN. THE FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE EAST SATURDAY
MORNING THEN VEER OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        58  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         50  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          53  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         57  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            57  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 242043
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830z shows building upper ridge across the
intermountain west with high clouds spilling over the top of the
ridge and into the county warning area (cwa). This area of high
clouds will shift off to the southeast this evening leaving mostly
clear skies with light west southwest winds. A front now moving
into far northern NE will slowly progress southward into the far
northwest cwa by midnight and near the I 35 corridor by 12z Saturday.
In advance of the front...the light winds...clear skies and moisture
pooling ahead of the boundary could help to enhance areas of
fog...especially ahead of the front in low lying areas and near
rivers and lakes. This would primarily apply to the southeast 2/3 of
the cwa. Any fog/stratus that does develop should dissipate by mid
morning leaving mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day.
With the boundary then stalling across the southern cwa and
gradually washing out...no appreciable cooling of temperatures
should be noted. In fact...with more sunshine than
today...temperatures in many locations will warmer than today.
Highs should range from the upper 70s near the Nebraska border to
the low to mid 80s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Upper ridge will slide off to the east on Sunday into the
Mississippi Valley with southwest flow aloft by Sunday night. Warm
advection and deeper mixing on Sunday should see highs in the lower
to middle 80s. The upper trough and associated jet will move
eastward across the Rockies Monday and into the Central Plains
Monday night and exiting on Tuesday. A cold front is forecast to
move through north central and northeast Kansas Monday and Monday
night. Deeper moisture and instability will be shunted off to the
southeast and east. Will maintain the highest pops in east central
Kansas and lower to the northwest. Atmosphere still appears to be
capped during the daytime on Monday so the front is expected to move
through dry most areas. Best chances of rain and isolated
thunderstorms will be Monday night and Tuesday. Models have sped up
a little and move the upper trough east of Kansas Tuesday afternoon
bringing an end to the precipitation. Cooler seasonal temperatures
are then expected in the wake of the upper trough Tuesday and will
continue through Thursday. Another wave will move through the
northwest flow Wednesday night, but moisture will be limited and any
chance will be across the far eastern counties of northeast and east
central Kansas. Cool high pressure builds into the Central Plains
Thursday and Friday with highs on Friday in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High level cirrus clouds will steadily thin to only a few by 00z
as winds decrease to under 6 kts. Expect mvfr to ifr fog all terminals
mainly in the 10-14z time frame as winds become light and variable
ahead of an advancing front that may enhance the fog potential until
north winds/mixing begin to increase by 14z when VFR conditions are
once again expected on thru the end of the fcst.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KDDC 242038
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  84  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  86  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 242030
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  84  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  86  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  86  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242018
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURN EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING REDUCED VIS IN
THESE AREAS...SO I INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG MENTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH RIDGE KEEPING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE SUNDAY...AND
A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.

JUST LIKE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...LIFT IS DECENT...HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND I CONSIDERED ONLY HAVING MENTION OF
SPRINKLES AND NO MEASURABLE PRECIP. THERE IS STILL A WEAK PRECIP
SIGNAL ON MOST GUIDANCE...AND I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
GETTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO I LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA
AND SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES WE COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. I TRENDED WINDS UP A LITTLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AM STILL A LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT NAM ML
WINDS WOULD INDICATE.

SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS...AND LOW TD VALUES IN THE 20S. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING. I
KEPT FORECAST IN THE 30-36F RANGE...HOWEVER I COULD SEE A FEW COLD
SPOTS DROPPING TO 28F.

PATTERN SHIFTS TO A BRIEF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW BEFORE RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN US...RESULTING IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWING A SIMILAR
PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SMALLER VARIANCES LIKELY A RESULT OF
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS ADVERTISED...SO
EVEN IF WE DO SE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW I DO NOT
ANTICIPATE PRECIP AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL TEND TO
BE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 60F MONDAY-FRIDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORTING SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN AT
THE FOLLOWING LOCATION SATURDAY OCTOBER 25:

BURLINGTON CO....84 IN 1963

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99/JJM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...STALLING OUT JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TOMORROW.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH. AS OF THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT LEAST ONE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN TIED AND A
FEW OTHERS ARE A FEW DEGREES SHY OF RECORD VALUES. RAP ANALYSIS
DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND MORNING
TEMPS ROSE ACCORDINGLY. SOME EARLY CLOUD COVER ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 LIMITED HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT UNDER NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE NEAR FORECAST VALUES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
MARKEDLY DRIER THAN MOST ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE HRRR WHICH HAS
BEEN DEPICTING WHAT SEEMED THIS MORNING TO BE A VERY AGGRESSIVE DROP
IN DEW POINTS...IN THE 20S F ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS ARE
LIGHT /LESS THAN 10MPH/ SO THANKFULLY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT A CONCERN TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BUT WARM AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. WITH DRY AIR MOVING
IN FOG IS OF NO CONCERN.

TOMORROW...SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND MILD DAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS
HOT AS FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S C LEADING TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN AT
THE FOLLOWING LOCATION SATURDAY OCTOBER 25:

BURLINGTON CO....84 IN 1963

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99/JJM




000
FXUS63 KICT 241938
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
238 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
VERY LIGHT WINDS...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CLEAR SKIES COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND. ANOMALOUSLY WARM
850-700 LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS NEAR RECORD LEVELS SATURDAY-SUNDAY
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. SOME HIGH-LEVEL CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MAY
INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/JET
STREAK PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
COUNTERED WITH STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND MIXING.

THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE PROGRESSIVELY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE ATTENDANT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...WITH
SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH BEHIND IT. HOWEVER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL BE MARGINAL AND DIRECTED
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI/ARKANSAS. SO WE
EXPECT THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BE TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EASTWARD...LATE MONDAY-EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCH RANGE THERE...AND THE
PROBABILITY OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW. ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS...RAIN CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM WITH ANY
AMOUNTS ONLY IN THE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PUSH FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD UP OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE NET EFFECT
OF THE ABOVE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES WILL BE DRIER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND FEW-SCT CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND AS WINDS
DECOUPLE AND A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG MAY REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TRENDED AREA TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AFTER
09-10Z LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 15Z ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        58  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         50  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          53  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       55  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     57  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         57  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            57  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    57  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KDDC 241759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN GENERALLY SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  84  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 241752 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1252 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A mix of low clouds, cirrus, haze and fog over the area early this
morning, keeping overnight lows in the 50s.  Current surface winds
out of the south , with 925 winds slowly turning south southwest.

As ridge aloft noses eastward through today, 850mb temperatures of
20C move over the western half of the forecast area.  With a mix
just below this level, high temperatures would reach toward middle
80s west with slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
toward the east.  High pressure slides across the northern plains,
leaving a weakness in the wind fields over the Topeka forecast area
in the early morning hours on Sunday.  Soundings would suggest a
good chance for fog in the major river valleys and adjacent plains,
and likely southeast through the Flint Hills where moisture has a
chance to pool before winds become light and the skies clear leading
to strong inversions.  Anticipate overnight lows in the 50s mainly
along and south of I70 where this occurs, and left fog chances out
across the far northwest as cooler drier air moves in that area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

By Saturday morning upper ridge continues to build into the southern
plains leading to the persistently warm mid level temps. There are
indications that if ground fog forms it could linger for an hour
or so after sunrise. Soundings still show that daytime mixing on
Saturday is rather shallow under 900 mb, which will keep the highs
in the low to mid 80s. The only exception would be far northeast KS
where temps might only reach the upper 70s. On Sunday the mid/upper
level trough approaches the northern plains keeping the area under
deep southwest flow. This will set the stage for windy conditions
during the day Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph especially along and
east of the turnpike. High temps on Sunday expected to be similar to
Saturday in the low to mid 80s again.

That mid/upper level system continues to progress towards the Great
Lakes region, which will drag a cold front through the central
plains. The airmass behind this front appears to be more seasonal as
we head into next week. The front is due to arrive during the day
Monday, but the chances for precip have trended downward. Soundings
during this time frame show that warm mid level temps will keep the
capping inversion in place despite decent 850 mb moisture advection.
Even post frontal rain seems unlikely at this point as dry air
begins to take over, and the lift focuses further east. Surface high
pressure quickly slides across the region behind the system giving
way to return flow. Temperatures will be more seasonal through mid
week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High level cirrus clouds will steadily thin to only a few by 00z
as winds decrease to under 6 kts. Expect mvfr to ifr fog all terminals
mainly in the 10-14z time frame as winds become light and variable
ahead of an advancing front that may enhance the fog potential until
north winds/mixing begin to increase by 14z when VFR conditions are
once again expected on thru the end of the fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KICT 241732
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT OUR LIGHT RAIN WED NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS LEFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SHROUDING MOST OF KINGMAN COUNTY HAVE FINE-
TUNED AREAS OF FOG DESCRIPTOR UNTIL ~10AM FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. DUE TO
ITS LOCALIZED NATURE HAVE CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BUT AM OBVIOUSLY CONTINUING TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 850MB TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A COUPLE RECORDS BROKEN SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WICHITA WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON SAT OF 87.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUN WITH STRONGER SOUTH/SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. FEELING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH INCH MON NIGHT. BY TUE...PRECIP WILL
ALL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE IS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THUR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND FEW-SCT CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S HAVE ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA AND AS WINDS
DECOUPLE AND A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG MAY REDEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TRENDED AREA TAFS IN THIS DIRECTION WITH
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AFTER
09-10Z LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 15Z ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  56  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          83  57  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         86  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  52  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          85  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       84  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            81  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  57  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 241729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM NEARLY 10F FROM THURSDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTH TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z MODEL RUNS AND IN FACT
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER COMPARED TO TODAYS
(FRIDAYS) VALUES. THIS DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL SHOOT FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPTION BEING FLAGLER AREA WHERE MID 70S EXPECTED.
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY REACHES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE COLORADO WESTERN SLOPE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH FAST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COMING INTO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALBEIT LOW
LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND LIMITED TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S REST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S
EXCEPT NEAR 50 AT HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS AT
MCK AND GLD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS. A SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /APPROX 25KFT
AGL OR HIGHER/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE TODAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1952

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1963

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JJM
CLIMATE...99




000
FXUS63 KICT 241146
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
646 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT OUR LIGHT RAIN WED NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS LEFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG SHROUDING MOST OF KINGMAN COUNTY HAVE FINE-
TUNED AREAS OF FOG DESCRIPTOR UNTIL ~10AM FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. DUE TO
ITS LOCALIZED NATURE HAVE CHECKED SWING ON ISSUING DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BUT AM OBVIOUSLY CONTINUING TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 850MB TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A COUPLE RECORDS BROKEN SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WICHITA WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON SAT OF 87.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUN WITH STRONGER SOUTH/SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. FEELING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH INCH MON NIGHT. BY TUE...PRECIP WILL
ALL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE IS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THUR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BY FAR THE GREATEST HAZARD EARLY THIS MORNING IS FOG THAT MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE VSBYS INTO IFR COUNTRY. WITH THE ONSET OF SW WINDS ~9KTS/10MPH
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z...BUT WITH FAIRLY THICK CIRROSTRATUS
CONTINUING TO SPILL S/SE ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD THE FOG MAY PERSIST
TIL ~17Z SO STAY TUNED. AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES ALL AREAS WOULD BE IN
VFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          83  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         86  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      85  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          85  54  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       84  56  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  58  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            81  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241117
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A mix of low clouds, cirrus, haze and fog over the area early this
morning, keeping overnight lows in the 50s.  Current surface winds
out of the south , with 925 winds slowly turning south southwest.

As ridge aloft noses eastward through today, 850mb temperatures of
20C move over the western half of the forecast area.  With a mix
just below this level, high temperatures would reach toward middle
80s west with slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
toward the east.  High pressure slides across the northern plains,
leaving a weakness in the wind fields over the Topeka forecast area
in the early morning hours on Sunday.  Soundings would suggest a
good chance for fog in the major river valleys and adjacent plains,
and likely southeast through the Flint Hills where moisture has a
chance to pool before winds become light and the skies clear leading
to strong inversions.  Anticipate overnight lows in the 50s mainly
along and south of I70 where this occurs, and left fog chances out
across the far northwest as cooler drier air moves in that area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

By Saturday morning upper ridge continues to build into the southern
plains leading to the persistently warm mid level temps. There are
indications that if ground fog forms it could linger for an hour
or so after sunrise. Soundings still show that daytime mixing on
Saturday is rather shallow under 900 mb, which will keep the highs
in the low to mid 80s. The only exception would be far northeast KS
where temps might only reach the upper 70s. On Sunday the mid/upper
level trough approaches the northern plains keeping the area under
deep southwest flow. This will set the stage for windy conditions
during the day Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph especially along and
east of the turnpike. High temps on Sunday expected to be similar to
Saturday in the low to mid 80s again.

That mid/upper level system continues to progress towards the Great
Lakes region, which will drag a cold front through the central
plains. The airmass behind this front appears to be more seasonal as
we head into next week. The front is due to arrive during the day
Monday, but the chances for precip have trended downward. Soundings
during this time frame show that warm mid level temps will keep the
capping inversion in place despite decent 850 mb moisture advection.
Even post frontal rain seems unlikely at this point as dry air
begins to take over, and the lift focuses further east. Surface high
pressure quickly slides across the region behind the system giving
way to return flow. Temperatures will be more seasonal through mid
week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Enough mixing in the low levels to keep fog mainly at bay, with
lower stratus moving off to the east of the TAF sites at this
hour. Later this morning visibility will improve to VFR and
continue through the day and evening. Early Saturday morning may
see a return of fog, but will give another issuance before making
mention that late in the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KDDC 241048
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
548 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF LIGHT FOG WITH VSBYS FROM 2SM TO 4SM WILL PERSIST UNTIL
14Z WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WITH SOME CIRRUS. LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FROM KGCK TO KDDC TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 240847
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A mix of low clouds, cirrus, haze and fog over the area early this
morning, keeping overnight lows in the 50s.  Current surface winds
out of the south , with 925 winds slowly turning south southwest.

As ridge aloft noses eastward through today, 850mb temperatures of
20C move over the western half of the forecast area.  With a mix
just below this level, high temperatures would reach toward middle
80s west with slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
toward the east.  High pressure slides across the northern plains,
leaving a weakness in the wind fields over the Topeka forecast area
in the early morning hours on Sunday.  Soundings would suggest a
good chance for fog in the major river valleys and adjacent plains,
and likely southeast through the Flint Hills where moisture has a
chance to pool before winds become light and the skies clear leading
to strong inversions.  Anticipate overnight lows in the 50s mainly
along and south of I70 where this occurs, and left fog chances out
across the far northwest as cooler drier air moves in that area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

By Saturday morning upper ridge continues to build into the southern
plains leading to the persistently warm mid level temps. There are
indications that if ground fog forms it could linger for an hour
or so after sunrise. Soundings still show that daytime mixing on
Saturday is rather shallow under 900 mb, which will keep the highs
in the low to mid 80s. The only exception would be far northeast KS
where temps might only reach the upper 70s. On Sunday the mid/upper
level trough approaches the northern plains keeping the area under
deep southwest flow. This will set the stage for windy conditions
during the day Sunday with gusts up to 30 mph especially along and
east of the turnpike. High temps on Sunday expected to be similar to
Saturday in the low to mid 80s again.

That mid/upper level system continues to progress towards the Great
Lakes region, which will drag a cold front through the central
plains. The airmass behind this front appears to be more seasonal as
we head into next week. The front is due to arrive during the day
Monday, but the chances for precip have trended downward. Soundings
during this time frame show that warm mid level temps will keep the
capping inversion in place despite decent 850 mb moisture advection.
Even post frontal rain seems unlikely at this point as dry air
begins to take over, and the lift focuses further east. Surface high
pressure quickly slides across the region behind the system giving
way to return flow. Temperatures will be more seasonal through mid
week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Models continue to show enough of a pressure gradient to keep some
wind at the surface through the morning. Think this along with high
cirrus overhead may be enough to keep the fog light and VSBY MVFR.
The exception is MHK where winds have gone calm. There could be a
brief period of IFR VSBY but think this would be temporary. With
mixing and insolation, the boundary layer should mix out by late
morning leading to VFR conditions through the rest of the period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KGLD 240830
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM NEARLY 10F FROM THURSDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTH TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z MODEL RUNS AND IN FACT
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER COMPARED TO TODAYS
(FRIDAYS) VALUES. THIS DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL SHOOT FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPTION BEING FLAGLER AREA WHERE MID 70S EXPECTED.
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY REACHES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE COLORADO WESTERN SLOPE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH FAST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COMING INTO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALBEIT LOW
LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND LIMITED TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S REST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S
EXCEPT NEAR 50 AT HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 07KTS BY 17Z
THEN LGT/VRB FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 20Z. BY 23Z LIGHT
EAST WIND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 03Z AT SPEEDS AROUND 05KTS THEN
SOUTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH 12Z AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WIND AROUND 07KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 08KTS BY 17Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z. FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
VRB WINDS AROUND 03KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE TODAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1952

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1963

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99




000
FXUS63 KICT 240806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT OUR LIGHT RAIN WED NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS LEFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 850MB TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A COUPLE RECORDS BROKEN SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WICHITA WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON SAT OF 87.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUN WITH STRONGER SOUTH/SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. FEELING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH INCH MON NIGHT. BY TUE...PRECIP WILL
ALL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE IS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THUR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VISIBILITIES DROPPING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS...WITH FOG ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KCNU. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AT ALL TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS OF IFR
CEILINGS AT KICT/KHUT/KRSL/KSLN AS WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          83  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         86  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      86  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          85  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       84  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            80  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 240806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT OUR LIGHT RAIN WED NIGHT IS NOW TRACKING
ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS LEFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE WITH WEAK LEE TROUGHING. MODELS HAVE
REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 850MB TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY SAT. 80S WILL BE COMMON AREA WIDE TODAY WITH UPPER 80S
A GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A COUPLE RECORDS BROKEN SAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WICHITA WHICH HAS A RECORD HIGH ON SAT OF 87.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SUN
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR
SUN WITH STRONGER SOUTH/SW WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN WAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MON INTO MON
NIGHT. FEELING MORE AND MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
A WIDESPREAD DECENT RAINFALL EVENT WITH SE KS HAVING THE BEST SHOT
AT SEEING MORE THAN A TENTH INCH MON NIGHT. BY TUE...PRECIP WILL
ALL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE IS TO PUSH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THUR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VISIBILITIES DROPPING ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS...WITH FOG ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT KCNU. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP AT ALL TERMINALS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LEFT OUT MENTIONS OF IFR
CEILINGS AT KICT/KHUT/KRSL/KSLN AS WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      85  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          83  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        83  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         86  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      86  53  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          85  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       84  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         81  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            80  58  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 240726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY, PUSHING VERY WARM AIR
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 70 OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN WAVE AXIS AND UPPER COOLING
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL QPF IS VERY LIMITED HOWEVER,
AND MANY AREAS WILL NOT SEE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ECMWF HAS
BACKED WAY DOWN ON PREVIOUS QPF AND NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRY
GFS.

FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH DRY UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A COOLER PERIOD IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR. ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS PRESENT, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR THE STRATUS TO MIGRATE AS FAR WEST AS
KDDC. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM AT ALL TAF SITES
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  53  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KGLD 240724
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
124 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

MILD PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND ANOTHER MORE
ELONGATED RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW DUE TO AN
UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO
850MB TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S C...APPROXIMATELY TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

TODAY...BECOMING SUNNY AND MILD. MORNING FOG/STRATUS HELD ON MUCH
LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...THROUGH NOON CDT IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. WITH THE EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY...OTHERWISE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS BY A DEGREE OR TWO BASED
ON OBSERVED TEMP TRENDS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND MILD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TO OUT OF THE WEST. THIS SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SO MUCH MORE INTENSE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED THIS MORNING DECIDED TO INCLUDE A BIT OF
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG WHERE STRATUS STILL PERSISTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH THE WIND DIRECTION AND THE
FACT THAT THIS WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR...BUT
IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO INCLUDE IT.

TOMORROW...FRIDAY...SUNNY WITH NEAR-RECORD HEAT. TEMPS ARE MAIN
CONCERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
WILL BE NEAR A NUMBER OF RECORD HIGHS /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/ AND
AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TO FALL JUST BELOW 12KT THRESHOLD WHILE SLIGHTLY VEERING
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BY 09Z. SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND 17Z
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 07KTS THEN LGT/VRB FOR A
FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 20Z. BY 23Z LIGHT EAST WIND VEERS TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY 03Z AT SPEEDS AROUND 05KTS.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MVFR VIS
FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 10Z AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. AFTER 10Z WINDS BECOME WEST AROUND 07KTS PUSHING
MOIST AIRMASS TO THE EAST AND ENDING MVFR THREAT. SFC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH AROUND 17Z SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 08KTS.
FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD VRB WINDS AROUND 03KTS
EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240630
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
130 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. ALONG
WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AS WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING HELPS DIRECT A
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM/GFS
SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS LIKELY, EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) FOR
LOWS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE STRETCH OF VERY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DOWNSLOPE AS SLIGHTLY CYCLONICALLY-CURVED FLOW WILL YIELD A
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE SATURDAY
AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY FORECAST LOOKS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
AS DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE. THE LATEST ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FOR 00Z MONDAY OF +24 TO +26C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE ARKANSAS RIVER
TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE ECMWF HAS A 6-HOUR MAX TEMPERATURE OF
90F NEAR LIBERAL 00Z MONDAY! A DEEP TROUGH AXIS WILL BE DEVELOPING
AND MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS (PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
FAIRLY STRONG MONDAY, WITH NORTH WINDS USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER, HOWEVER TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION BEHIND THE
FRONT MID-WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE RIGHT
NOW, WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR. ALONG WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS PRESENT, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
TOWARD DAYBREAK. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH
THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR THE STRATUS TO MIGRATE AS FAR WEST AS
KDDC. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM AT ALL TAF SITES
BY MID FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  86  49  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  50  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  51  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
P28  87  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




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