Home > Products > State Listing > Kansas Data
Latest:
 AFDGLD |  AFDDDC |  AFDTOP |  AFDICT |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 010014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
614 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL COLORADO...ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE
NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH...GUSTING 25 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A LARGE BAND OF WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...INTO THE DAKOTAS
THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH-PLAINS. ALOFT...A 500 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE 500 MB WILL CONTINUE ITS
MOVEMENT EAST...REACHING THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS
THE LOW DEPARTS...ANTICIPATE A REDUCTION IN THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE SNOW IS
THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING FOR MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE RUNS SEEM
TO HAVE AN ACCURATE HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO DEPENDED ON THESE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

TOMORROW...A PRECIPITATION LULL IS FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER...BEGINS TO EJECT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO...SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE REGION. LEANED ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
AS GLOBAL MODELS OFTEN HAVE A NORTHERN BIAS WITH PRECIPITATION
EXTEND. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TOMORROW BUT THERE IS
SOME HESITATION ON HOW WARM TO GO OVER EAST COLORADO WITH SNOW
LIKELY STILL ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PIECE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA AND UTAH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 TO HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH ANY
PRECIPITATION NEARLY OR COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND A DRY FORECAST
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES 50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW
60S WESTERN KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SNOWPACK IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...NAM/ECMWF BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT...EXITING THE AREA BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
GFS AND CURRENT 18Z NAM MUCH DRIER AND NOT GENERATING PRECIP THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. LOWS 30 TO 35 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST WITH HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 (WEST TO EAST).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY WHILE FOR OUR AREA ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD NUDGE OUR RIDGE AXIS JUST A BIT
FURTHER EAST. GFS/ECMWF BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR
FRIDAY MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LOWS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE PERHAPS INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACHING WINDY CATEGORY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR WEST AND HIGH
TO OUR EAST INCREASES.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES IS LIMITED IN ITS MOVEMENT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...TIMING OF WHICH IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT
PRESENT TIME. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT AROUND 50 FOR HILL CITY AND
NORTON. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

KGLD AND KMCK WILL START OUT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE DROPPING
TO IFR THIS EVENING. FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TAF
SITES THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF -RA AND IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE CIGS STAY AT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. KGLD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
LIFR CONDITIONS 06Z TO 15Z...WITH AN ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE KEEPING STRATUS OVER THE AREA. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN...BUT A WINTRY MIX CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY CIGS WILL START TO LIFT TO
IFR THEN MVFR IN KGLD AND MVFR IN KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...CLT



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 010001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER MID-AMERICA WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NARROW
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE JET STREAK APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW STRIP OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEST FORCING IN CONCERT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AS MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES OVER MID-AMERICA FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOWER
HUMIDITY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S. OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MATERIALIZING THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LIKELY EMANATING FROM THIS
LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO REFINE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

CIGS ARE THE CONCERN THIS EVE AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER
FAR NE KS AT 23Z...SPREADS "WRAP-ARND" STRATOCU THAT`LL WL QUICKLY
LWR INTO MVFR COUNTRY ACRS MOST OF CNTRL KS TNGT. CIGS AT KRSL ARE
LKLY TO DROP TO ~2,500FT ~02Z W/ FURTHER LWR`G OCRG TWD 12Z WHEN
IFR CIGS ARE PSBL. SMLR TRENDS ARE ALSO XPCT`D AT KGBD & KSLN SUN
MRNG (10-14Z). AS THE LOW DEPARTS...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WL
SURGE SE ACRS KS TO PRODUCE WNW-NNW WSHFT SUN MRNG. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ~17KTS ARE LKLY IN MOST AREAS ~15Z W/ GUSTS ~22KTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IF THE AREA REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WICHITA
WILL TALLY ITS 6TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD (SINCE 1889) AT 6.23
INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 2009. WICHITA`S APRIL NORMAL
IS 2.59 INCHES. SALINA WILL TALLY ITS 8TH WETTEST APRIL (SINCE
1949) AT 4.37 INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 1999. SALINA`S
APRIL NORMAL IS 3.05 INCHES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  61  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
HUTCHINSON      41  59  43  64 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          41  60  44  62 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        42  62  44  63 /  10  10  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  64  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
RUSSELL         40  55  41  64 /  10  10  30  20
GREAT BEND      40  56  41  63 /  10  20  40  20
SALINA          42  57  44  66 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       40  58  43  64 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     45  64  47  65 /  10  10  40  20
CHANUTE         44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
IOLA            44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    44  64  46  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS
CLIMATE...ADK



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 302334
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas Sunday night into
Monday, providing a chance of a few more scattered showers and
keeping temperatures still well below normal. The remainder of
next week will feature quiet weather with a pronounced warming
trend. Strong high pressure over Alberta Monday afternoon will
evolve into a sharp ridge over the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each of
these days, although very wet soils will slow this process down
some. Friday will be the warmest day of this forecast, as high
pressure ridge axis spreads into Kansas. Models continue to
suggest a strong closed low entering the Desert Southwest Friday
and quickly eject northeast towards the CWA by Saturday afternoon.
This evolution would bring strong winds to SW KS late this week,
along with severe convective potential along the associated dry
line. Entering the peak of our severe weather season, and this
will be watched carefully over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A secondary vort max will move across western Kansas tonight with
increasing mid level cloudiness, then as another system
approaches, cigs may lower to MVFR after 15-18Z. Downslope winds
around 10-14kt will prevail tonight, then increase to more
northerly at 15-25kt after 12-15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  55  40  60 /  10  40  50  20
GCK  37  53  38  60 /  10  40  50  20
EHA  37  51  38  57 /  20  60  40  20
LBL  39  53  40  59 /  20  50  40  20
HYS  39  54  39  61 /  10  20  40  20
P28  43  61  44  63 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 302316
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A bit on the cool side this late April day, with morning showers and
clouds slow to break up. Highs have reached lower 50s up in north
central Kansas while the east central counties have broken out of
the clouds and risen into the 60s.  A few showers remain in the
area, mainly north of I70 as the upper low continues to spin over
south central Nebraska and usher eastward enough cooling aloft to
support some pockets of light rain. Do think the clouds will filter
back into the area from the west later this evening and through much
of the day on Sunday.  Lows fall into the 40s tonight.  As the upper
low moves eastward, the cooler air to our north comes southward into
the state, with highs tomorrow still only in the 50s to near 60 in
the southeast counties.  Chance for showers remains along the KS/NE
line until subsidence moves in behind the departing low for the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

An embedded shortwave trough within the mean southwest flow aloft is
expected to lift over central and portions of eastern KS Sunday
evening through Monday. Latest guidance has backed off considerably
on rain showers across the area, owning to the subsident air in the
mid levels as the previous trough exits the region. Have lowered
pops to slight chances for showers through the day Monday as the
better moisture resides west and south of the CWA as the wave passes
through. Discounting the GFS as an outlier, all other guidance drops
another wave through the northerly flow Tuesday. Moisture remains
lacking with this system while guidance develops very spotty qpf
amounts throughout the region. Will maintain the dry forecast at
this time with the upper ridging building over the central plains
Wednesday through Friday. A broad, negatively tilted trough is
trending a bit faster with the GFS and Canadian models ejecting a
vort max east towards north central KS Friday night into Saturday.
The ECMWF does not bring in the wave until Saturday night.
Regardless, Gulf moisture return is able to recover dewpoints into
the 50s, bringing back the chance for thunderstorms next weekend.
Severity of these storms is too far out at this time to mention, but
something to watch given the time of year.

In terms of temperatures, readings are near normal given the lack of
strong cold or warm advection in the region. After cloud cover holds
highs in the low 60s Monday, highs are generally in the lower 70s
this week with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

For the 00z TAFs, ceilings should remain VFR this evening into the
overnight hours before dropping back down to MVFR conditions
shortly before sunrise Sunday morning. Models show these MVFR
cigs persisting through the daytime hours on Sunday as a mid-level
low slowly tracks eastward across the area. Some model guidance
suggests that some scattered IFR cigs will also be possible at
times, primarily during the morning hours. With this passing
system, winds will shift from west to northwest Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302100
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL COLORADO...ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE
NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH...GUSTING 25 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A LARGE BAND OF WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...INTO THE DAKOTAS
THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH-PLAINS. ALOFT...A 500 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE 500 MB WILL CONTINUE ITS
MOVEMENT EAST...REACHING THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS
THE LOW DEPARTS...ANTICIPATE A REDUCTION IN THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE SNOW IS
THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING FOR MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE RUNS SEEM
TO HAVE AN ACCURATE HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO DEPENDED ON THESE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

TOMORROW...A PRECIPITATION LULL IS FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER...BEGINS TO EJECT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO...SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE REGION. LEANED ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
AS GLOBAL MODELS OFTEN HAVE A NORTHERN BIAS WITH PRECIPITATION
EXTEND. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TOMORROW BUT THERE IS
SOME HESITATION ON HOW WARM TO GO OVER EAST COLORADO WITH SNOW
LIKELY STILL ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PIECE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA AND UTAH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3 TO HALF OF
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH ANY
PRECIPITATION NEARLY OR COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND A DRY FORECAST
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES 50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW
60S WESTERN KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SNOWPACK IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...NAM/ECMWF BRING A WEATHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT...EXITING THE AREA BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON POSSIBLY GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
GFS AND CURRENT 18Z NAM MUCH DRIER AND NOT GENERATING PRECIP THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. LOWS 30 TO 35 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST WITH HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 (WEST TO EAST).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY WHILE FOR OUR AREA ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD NUDGE OUR RIDGE AXIS JUST A BIT
FURTHER EAST. GFS/ECMWF BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR
FRIDAY MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LOWS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE PERHAPS INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY REACHING WINDY CATEGORY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR WEST AND HIGH
TO OUR EAST INCREASES.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER A LARGE PART OF THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES IS LIMITED IN ITS MOVEMENT AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE POPS AS MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE AREA...TIMING OF WHICH IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT
PRESENT TIME. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT AROUND 50 FOR HILL CITY AND
NORTON. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO LOW 70S EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES. LOW CIGS
ARE RESULT OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...ALLOWING STRATUS TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IFR CIGS LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO
IFR/LIFR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
OVER EAST COLORADO BUT FOG MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. AT KGLD AND KMCK...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LIGHT SNOW EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL COLORADO...ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WINDS ARE
NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH...GUSTING 25 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. A LARGE BAND OF WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...INTO THE DAKOTAS
THEN SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH-PLAINS. ALOFT...A 500 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE 500 MB WILL CONTINUE ITS
MOVEMENT EAST...REACHING THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS
THE LOW DEPARTS...ANTICIPATE A REDUCTION IN THE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE SNOW IS
THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS EVENING FOR MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE RUNS SEEM
TO HAVE AN ACCURATE HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS SO DEPENDED ON THESE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS FOR THIS FORECAST.

TOMORROW...A PRECIPITATION LULL IS FORECAST DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER...BEGINS TO EJECT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO...SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE ON HOW QUICKLY THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE TRI-STATE REGION. LEANED ON HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
AS GLOBAL MODELS OFTEN HAVE A NORTHERN BIAS WITH PRECIPITATION
EXTEND. IN ADDITION...A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH COULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TOMORROW BUT THERE IS
SOME HESITATION ON HOW WARM TO GO OVER EAST COLORADO WITH SNOW
LIKELY STILL ON THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING H5 LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THEREAFTER. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH DRY POPS TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TREND MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OCCURRING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT
WILL EXIT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LESS AMPLIFICATION AND A TRACK THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES. LOW CIGS
ARE RESULT OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...ALLOWING STRATUS TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IFR CIGS LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO
IFR/LIFR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
OVER EAST COLORADO BUT FOG MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. AT KGLD AND KMCK...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302007
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
307 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A bit on the cool side this late April day, with morning showers and
clouds slow to break up. Highs have reached lower 50s up in north
central Kansas while the east central counties have broken out of
the clouds and risen into the 60s.  A few showers remain in the
area, mainly north of I70 as the upper low continues to spin over
south central Nebraska and usher eastward enough cooling aloft to
support some pockets of light rain. Do think the clouds will filter
back into the area from the west later this evening and through much
of the day on Sunday.  Lows fall into the 40s tonight.  As the upper
low moves eastward, the cooler air to our north comes southward into
the state, with highs tomorrow still only in the 50s to near 60 in
the southeast counties.  Chance for showers remains along the KS/NE
line until subsidence moves in behind the departing low for the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

An embedded shortwave trough within the mean southwest flow aloft is
expected to lift over central and portions of eastern KS Sunday
evening through Monday. Latest guidance has backed off considerably
on rain showers across the area, owning to the subsident air in the
mid levels as the previous trough exits the region. Have lowered
pops to slight chances for showers through the day Monday as the
better moisture resides west and south of the CWA as the wave passes
through. Discounting the GFS as an outlier, all other guidance drops
another wave through the northerly flow Tuesday. Moisture remains
lacking with this system while guidance develops very spotty qpf
amounts throughout the region. Will maintain the dry forecast at
this time with the upper ridging building over the central plains
Wednesday through Friday. A broad, negatively tilted trough is
trending a bit faster with the GFS and Canadian models ejecting a
vort max east towards north central KS Friday night into Saturday.
The ECMWF does not bring in the wave until Saturday night.
Regardless, Gulf moisture return is able to recover dewpoints into
the 50s, bringing back the chance for thunderstorms next weekend.
Severity of these storms is too far out at this time to mention, but
something to watch given the time of year.

In terms of temperatures, readings are near normal given the lack of
strong cold or warm advection in the region. After cloud cover holds
highs in the low 60s Monday, highs are generally in the lower 70s
this week with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR cigs will continue into the afternoon at all terminals.
Visible satellite and short-term guidance continue to show
decreasing cloud cover along and south of Interstate-70, therefore
continue to think cigs will become VFR by mid-afternoon at all
terminals. As the low pressure moves eastward, another area of
MVFR cigs, possibly IFR, will return in the 05-06Z timeframe at
all terminals. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out tomorrow
morning at all terminals, however the bulk of precip will stay
north of Interstate-70. Cloud cover looks to linger near the end
of the period.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KICT 301959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER MID-AMERICA WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NARROW
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE JET STREAK APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW STRIP OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEST FORCING IN CONCERT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AS MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES OVER MID-AMERICA FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOWER
HUMIDITY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S. OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MATERIALIZING THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LIKELY EMANATING FROM THIS
LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO REFINE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHERN IOWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MVFR CEILINGS AT MIDDAY TODAY...SHOULD
SCATTERED AND LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

JMC

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IF THE AREA REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WICHITA
WILL TALLY ITS 6TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD (SINCE 1889) AT 6.23
INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 2009. WICHITA`S APRIL NORMAL
IS 2.59 INCHES. SALINA WILL TALLY ITS 8TH WETTEST APRIL (SINCE
1949) AT 4.37 INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 1999. SALINA`S
APRIL NORMAL IS 3.05 INCHES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  61  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
HUTCHINSON      41  59  43  64 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          41  60  44  62 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        42  62  44  63 /  10  10  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  64  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
RUSSELL         40  55  41  64 /  10  10  30  20
GREAT BEND      40  56  41  63 /  10  20  40  20
SALINA          42  57  44  66 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       40  58  43  64 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     45  64  47  65 /  10  10  40  20
CHANUTE         44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
IOLA            44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    44  64  46  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC
CLIMATE...ADK




000
FXUS63 KICT 301959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER MID-AMERICA WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NARROW
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE JET STREAK APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW STRIP OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEST FORCING IN CONCERT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AS MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES OVER MID-AMERICA FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOWER
HUMIDITY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S. OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MATERIALIZING THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LIKELY EMANATING FROM THIS
LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO REFINE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHERN IOWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MVFR CEILINGS AT MIDDAY TODAY...SHOULD
SCATTERED AND LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

JMC

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IF THE AREA REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WICHITA
WILL TALLY ITS 6TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD (SINCE 1889) AT 6.23
INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 2009. WICHITA`S APRIL NORMAL
IS 2.59 INCHES. SALINA WILL TALLY ITS 8TH WETTEST APRIL (SINCE
1949) AT 4.37 INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 1999. SALINA`S
APRIL NORMAL IS 3.05 INCHES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  61  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
HUTCHINSON      41  59  43  64 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          41  60  44  62 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        42  62  44  63 /  10  10  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  64  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
RUSSELL         40  55  41  64 /  10  10  30  20
GREAT BEND      40  56  41  63 /  10  20  40  20
SALINA          42  57  44  66 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       40  58  43  64 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     45  64  47  65 /  10  10  40  20
CHANUTE         44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
IOLA            44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    44  64  46  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC
CLIMATE...ADK




000
FXUS63 KICT 301958
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER MID-AMERICA WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NARROW
ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE JET STREAK APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY SUPPORT A NARROW STRIP OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER MAINLY
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AND MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. MODEST FORCING IN CONCERT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AS MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES OVER MID-AMERICA FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LOWER
HUMIDITY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S. OPERATIONAL
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MATERIALIZING THROUGH THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LIKELY EMANATING FROM THIS
LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO REFINE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHERN IOWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MVFR CEILINGS AT MIDDAY TODAY...SHOULD
SCATTERED AND LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

JMC

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IF THE AREA REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WICHITA
WILL TALLY ITS 6TH WETTEST APRIL ON RECORD (SINCE 1889) AT 6.23
INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 2009. WICHITA`S APRIL NORMAL
IS 2.59 INCHES. SALINA WILL TALLY ITS 8TH WETTEST APRIL (SINCE
1949) AT 4.37 INCHES...WHICH IS THE WETTEST SINCE 1999. SALINA`S
APRIL NORMAL IS 3.05 INCHES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  61  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
HUTCHINSON      41  59  43  64 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          41  60  44  62 /  10  10  30  20
ELDORADO        42  62  44  63 /  10  10  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  64  45  65 /  10  20  40  20
RUSSELL         40  55  41  64 /  10  10  30  20
GREAT BEND      40  56  41  63 /  10  20  40  20
SALINA          42  57  44  66 /  10  10  30  20
MCPHERSON       40  58  43  64 /  10  10  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     45  64  47  65 /  10  10  40  20
CHANUTE         44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
IOLA            44  62  46  64 /  10  10  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    44  64  46  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC
CLIMATE...ADK




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301957
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
257 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas Sunday night into
Monday, providing a chance of a few more scattered showers and
keeping temperatures still well below normal. The remainder of
next week will feature quiet weather with a pronounced warming
trend. Strong high pressure over Alberta Monday afternoon will
evolve into a sharp ridge over the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each of
these days, although very wet soils will slow this process down
some. Friday will be the warmest day of this forecast, as high
pressure ridge axis spreads into Kansas. Models continue to
suggest a strong closed low entering the Desert Southwest Friday
and quickly eject northeast towards the CWA by Saturday afternoon.
This evolution would bring strong winds to SW KS late this week,
along with severe convective potential along the associated dry
line. Entering the peak of our severe weather season, and this
will be watched carefully over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR conditions will continue over the next couple of hours with
cloud ceilings rising above 030 later this afternoon. Winds will
generally be from the northwest gusting to around 20 knots at
times.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  55  40  60 /  10  40  50  20
GCK  37  53  38  60 /  10  40  50  20
EHA  37  51  38  57 /  20  60  40  20
LBL  39  53  40  59 /  20  50  40  20
HYS  39  54  39  61 /  10  20  40  20
P28  43  61  44  63 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301738
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1238 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR conditions will continue over the next couple of hours with
cloud ceilings rising above 030 later this afternoon. Winds will
generally be from the northwest gusting to around 20 knots at
times.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  54  40 /  10  10  40  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  40  50
EHA  57  37  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  53  41 /  10  20  50  50
HYS  52  39  53  39 /  20  10  20  50
P28  65  43  61  43 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301734
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND
THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN IOWA SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST MONDAY NIGHT, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER THE PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

POPS WILL BE LOWER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA. PLAN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TODAY
FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE
MORNING AND NIGHTTIME. RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS
DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE SUNDAY WITH MAINLY WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MONDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN FA. MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO 60 MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING H5 LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THEREAFTER. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH DRY POPS TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TREND MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OCCURRING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT
WILL EXIT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LESS AMPLIFICATION AND A TRACK THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES. LOW CIGS
ARE RESULT OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...ALLOWING STRATUS TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IFR CIGS LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO
IFR/LIFR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
OVER EAST COLORADO BUT FOG MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. AT KGLD AND KMCK...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301727
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into
southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low
will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for
occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. MUCAPE
will be less than 300 J/KG...thus any thunderstorm that manages to
develop will be weak. The northern terr counties across the CWA will
see the best chance for scattered showers. Along and south of I-70
may stay dry through the day. Surface winds will become west-
southwesterly through the morning hours then veer more to the west-
northwest by late afternoon. Highs Today will be cool once again
with most areas across the CWA only getting into the 50s. The
eastern counties may see mid to upper 60s with southwest surface
winds remaining for much of the afternoon hours. If there are breaks
in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer.

Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther
counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual
moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5
low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards
I-70 after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

By Sunday, the upper level low will be located just northeast of the
area keeping showers limited to areas north of I-70 through the
afternoon.  This system moves east of the area by late afternoon
before another wave from the west moves toward northeast Kansas late
Sunday into Monday bringing more chances for rain showers.  PoPs
taper off by Monday night as a combination of surface high pressure
and upper level ridging keep conditions quiet for the work week. The
next chances for rain and thunderstorms arrives Friday night into
the weekend as another deep upper trough moves over the western
CONUS.

As for temperatures, Sunday starts off cool with cold air advection
aiding in highs reaching only the the upper 50s and low 60s.  A
gradual warm up is expected through the period as mostly clear skies
prevail. By Friday highs are expected in the upper 70s, with only a
slight cool down Saturday into the mid 70s as clouds approach the
area with increasing precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MVFR cigs will continue into the afternoon at all terminals.
Visible satellite and short-term guidance continue to show
decreasing cloud cover along and south of Interstate-70, therefore
continue to think cigs will become VFR by mid-afternoon at all
terminals. As the low pressure moves eastward, another area of
MVFR cigs, possibly IFR, will return in the 05-06Z timeframe at
all terminals. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out tomorrow
morning at all terminals, however the bulk of precip will stay
north of Interstate-70. Cloud cover looks to linger near the end
of the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301717
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1217 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

MVFR conditions will continue over the next couple of hours with
cloud ceilings rising above 030 later this afternoon. Winds will
generally be from the northwest gusting to around 20 knots at
times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  54  40 /  10  10  40  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  40  50
EHA  57  37  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  53  41 /  10  20  50  50
HYS  52  39  53  39 /  20  10  20  50
P28  65  43  61  43 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KICT 301656
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A SECONDARY
EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL
SCOOT ACROSS KANSAS TODAY AND COULD GENERATE MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER KANSAS WITH
PERSIST NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA.
ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY
BEING LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
STORE FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE
ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS COOLER AIRMASS EAST OF KANSAS. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY
POSSIBLE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHERN IOWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MVFR CEILINGS AT MIDDAY TODAY...SHOULD
SCATTERED AND LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  43  61  44 /  10   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON      61  42  59  42 /  10  10  10  40
NEWTON          63  43  60  43 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        65  44  62  44 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  44  64  44 /   0   0  10  30
RUSSELL         54  40  55  40 /  20  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      56  40  56  41 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          60  42  57  43 /  10  10  10  40
MCPHERSON       60  42  58  42 /  10  10  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         71  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            70  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC




000
FXUS63 KICT 301656
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1156 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A SECONDARY
EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL
SCOOT ACROSS KANSAS TODAY AND COULD GENERATE MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER KANSAS WITH
PERSIST NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA.
ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY
BEING LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
STORE FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE
ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS COOLER AIRMASS EAST OF KANSAS. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY
POSSIBLE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHERN IOWA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MVFR CEILINGS AT MIDDAY TODAY...SHOULD
SCATTERED AND LIFT TO VFR BY MID AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  43  61  44 /  10   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON      61  42  59  42 /  10  10  10  40
NEWTON          63  43  60  43 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        65  44  62  44 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  44  64  44 /   0   0  10  30
RUSSELL         54  40  55  40 /  20  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      56  40  56  41 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          60  42  57  43 /  10  10  10  40
MCPHERSON       60  42  58  42 /  10  10  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         71  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            70  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301215
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
715 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Northwesterly surface winds will prevail in the wake of an upper
level low and surface low pressure system. The highest winds will
be with daytime heating. IFR stratus will gradually lift this
morning but will likely fill back in later in the morning at a
higher level (MVFR) due to mixing. VFR CIGS are expected to
return this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Some stratus
may return near the end of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  55  40 /  10  10  30  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  30  50
EHA  57  38  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  54  41 /  10  10  50  50
HYS  52  40  53  39 /  30  20  10  50
P28  65  43  62  43 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-
061>063-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301215
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
715 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 709 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Northwesterly surface winds will prevail in the wake of an upper
level low and surface low pressure system. The highest winds will
be with daytime heating. IFR stratus will gradually lift this
morning but will likely fill back in later in the morning at a
higher level (MVFR) due to mixing. VFR CIGS are expected to
return this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Some stratus
may return near the end of the period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  55  40 /  10  10  30  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  10  10  30  50
EHA  57  38  51  38 /  10  20  60  50
LBL  60  39  54  41 /  10  10  50  50
HYS  52  40  53  39 /  30  20  10  50
P28  65  43  62  43 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ043-
061>063-074-075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KICT 301145
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A SECONDARY
EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL
SCOOT ACROSS KANSAS TODAY AND COULD GENERATE MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER KANSAS WITH
PERSIST NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA.
ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY
BEING LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
STORE FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE
ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS COOLER AIRMASS EAST OF KANSAS. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY
POSSIBLE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MAINLY THIS MORNING.

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF KS AS COOLER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPILL-IN FROM THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECTED THESE IFR AND
LIFR LEVELS TO REMAIN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 HOURS WITH CENTRAL
KS(KRSL-KSLN) THE SLOWEST TO CLEAR. MOST SITES SHOULD BE AT VFR
LEVELS BY AROUND 18-19Z. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO THE
UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER. MAY SEE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS COME BACK INTO CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  43  61  44 /  10   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON      61  42  59  42 /  10  10  10  40
NEWTON          63  43  60  43 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        65  44  62  44 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  44  64  44 /   0   0  10  30
RUSSELL         54  40  55  40 /  30  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      56  40  56  41 /  20  10  10  50
SALINA          60  42  57  43 /  20  10  10  40
MCPHERSON       60  42  58  42 /  10  10  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         71  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            70  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301133
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND
THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN IOWA SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST MONDAY NIGHT, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER THE PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

POPS WILL BE LOWER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA. PLAN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TODAY
FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE
MORNING AND NIGHTTIME. RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS
DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE SUNDAY WITH MAINLY WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MONDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN FA. MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO 60 MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING H5 LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THEREAFTER. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH DRY POPS TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TREND MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OCCURRING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT
WILL EXIT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LESS AMPLIFICATION AND A TRACK THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AT KGLD. WINDS
INCREASE TO THE BREEZY CATEGORY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP DOWN TO IFR AROUND 00Z AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TODAY AND THEN DROP
TO IFR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301125
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into
southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low
will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for
occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. MUCAPE
will be less than 300 J/KG...thus any thunderstorm that manages to
develop will be weak. The northern terr counties across the CWA will
see the best chance for scattered showers. Along and south of I-70
may stay dry through the day. Surface winds will become west-
southwesterly through the morning hours then veer more to the west-
northwest by late afternoon. Highs Today will be cool once again
with most areas across the CWA only getting into the 50s. The
eastern counties may see mid to upper 60s with southwest surface
winds remaining for much of the afternoon hours. If there are breaks
in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer.

Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther
counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual
moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5
low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards
I-70 after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

By Sunday, the upper level low will be located just northeast of the
area keeping showers limited to areas north of I-70 through the
afternoon.  This system moves east of the area by late afternoon
before another wave from the west moves toward northeast Kansas late
Sunday into Monday bringing more chances for rain showers.  PoPs
taper off by Monday night as a combination of surface high pressure
and upper level ridging keep conditions quiet for the work week. The
next chances for rain and thunderstorms arrives Friday night into
the weekend as another deep upper trough moves over the western
CONUS.

As for temperatures, Sunday starts off cool with cold air advection
aiding in highs reaching only the the upper 50s and low 60s.  A
gradual warm up is expected through the period as mostly clear skies
prevail. By Friday highs are expected in the upper 70s, with only a
slight cool down Saturday into the mid 70s as clouds approach the
area with increasing precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

LIFR cigs are expected to continue at all terminals for the next
hour or so. Rain showers will exit the Topeka terminals by 13Z.
Increasing BL mixing should allow cigs to improve to IFR near or
shortly after 13Z. Cigs will continue to slowly improve
throughout the morning with all terminals expected to return to
MVFR in the 16-17Z timeframe. Cigs will then briefly return to VFR
this afternoon and evening before another batch of MVFR, possibly
IFR, cigs return in the 04-06Z timeframe Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301125
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into
southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low
will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for
occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. MUCAPE
will be less than 300 J/KG...thus any thunderstorm that manages to
develop will be weak. The northern terr counties across the CWA will
see the best chance for scattered showers. Along and south of I-70
may stay dry through the day. Surface winds will become west-
southwesterly through the morning hours then veer more to the west-
northwest by late afternoon. Highs Today will be cool once again
with most areas across the CWA only getting into the 50s. The
eastern counties may see mid to upper 60s with southwest surface
winds remaining for much of the afternoon hours. If there are breaks
in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer.

Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther
counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual
moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5
low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards
I-70 after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

By Sunday, the upper level low will be located just northeast of the
area keeping showers limited to areas north of I-70 through the
afternoon.  This system moves east of the area by late afternoon
before another wave from the west moves toward northeast Kansas late
Sunday into Monday bringing more chances for rain showers.  PoPs
taper off by Monday night as a combination of surface high pressure
and upper level ridging keep conditions quiet for the work week. The
next chances for rain and thunderstorms arrives Friday night into
the weekend as another deep upper trough moves over the western
CONUS.

As for temperatures, Sunday starts off cool with cold air advection
aiding in highs reaching only the the upper 50s and low 60s.  A
gradual warm up is expected through the period as mostly clear skies
prevail. By Friday highs are expected in the upper 70s, with only a
slight cool down Saturday into the mid 70s as clouds approach the
area with increasing precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

LIFR cigs are expected to continue at all terminals for the next
hour or so. Rain showers will exit the Topeka terminals by 13Z.
Increasing BL mixing should allow cigs to improve to IFR near or
shortly after 13Z. Cigs will continue to slowly improve
throughout the morning with all terminals expected to return to
MVFR in the 16-17Z timeframe. Cigs will then briefly return to VFR
this afternoon and evening before another batch of MVFR, possibly
IFR, cigs return in the 04-06Z timeframe Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300845
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND
THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN IOWA SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST MONDAY NIGHT, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER THE PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

POPS WILL BE LOWER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA. PLAN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TODAY
FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE
MORNING AND NIGHTTIME. RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS
DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE SUNDAY WITH MAINLY WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MONDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN FA. MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO 60 MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING H5 LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THEREAFTER. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH DRY POPS TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TREND MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OCCURRING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT
WILL EXIT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LESS AMPLIFICATION AND A TRACK THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING FOR BOTH
SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER/NEAR THE SITES
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION CEILINGS WILL
STAY/LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 300819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into
southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low
will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for
occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. MUCAPE
will be less than 300 J/KG...thus any thunderstorm that manages to
develop will be weak. The northern terr counties across the CWA will
see the best chance for scattered showers. Along and south of I-70
may stay dry through the day. Surface winds will become west-
southwesterly through the morning hours then veer more to the west-
northwest by late afternoon. Highs Today will be cool once again
with most areas across the CWA only getting into the 50s. The
eastern counties may see mid to upper 60s with southwest surface
winds remaining for much of the afternoon hours. If there are breaks
in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer.

Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther
counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual
moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5
low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards
I-70 after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

By Sunday, the upper level low will be located just northeast of the
area keeping showers limited to areas north of I-70 through the
afternoon.  This system moves east of the area by late afternoon
before another wave from the west moves toward northeast Kansas late
Sunday into Monday bringing more chances for rain showers.  PoPs
taper off by Monday night as a combination of surface high pressure
and upper level ridging keep conditions quiet for the work week. The
next chances for rain and thunderstorms arrives Friday night into
the weekend as another deep upper trough moves over the western
CONUS.

As for temperatures, Sunday starts off cool with cold air advection
aiding in highs reaching only the the upper 50s and low 60s.  A
gradual warm up is expected through the period as mostly clear skies
prevail. By Friday highs are expected in the upper 70s, with only a
slight cool down Saturday into the mid 70s as clouds approach the
area with increasing precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

For the 06z TAFs, main concern is on the scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms that will persist off and on through the overnight
hours. Expect persistent MVFR to IFR cigs overnight into Saturday
morning with the scattered precipitation, with some model
guidance even suggesting some periods of LIFR cigs overnight, so
will need to continue to monitor that potential. MVFR vis will be
possible at times with the scattered precipitation. While the
last of the scattered precipitation should lift north of the TAF
sites Saturday morning, IFR/MVFR cigs may linger through late
morning before improving to VFR Saturday afternoon. East
northeasterly winds will shift to the southwest by Saturday
morning behind the exiting precipitation.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A
BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT THIS BROAD BAND TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS.

MEANWHILE A BAND OF STRONG AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THE EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE LIFT THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THIS BROAD BAND OF LIFT...MUCH WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THIS BAND WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

AM EXPECTING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO BE
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27. HAVE ALREADY HAD SNOWFALL REPORTS IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDING
DOWN ON RADAR ALREADY...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL INSTEAD HANDLE THIS EVENT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS SINCE THE WORST OF THE EVENT IS
ALREADY ONGOING.

DUE TO THE SUDDEN NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND SLEET...THERE
HAVE BEEN MANY SLIDE-OFFS AND ACCIDENTS REPORTED ALONG I-70 FROM
KIT CARSON COUNTY TO THOMAS COUNTY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INTERSTATE
BEING SHUT DOWN FROM COLBY TO THE KS/CO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT
OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT 19Z...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD GET AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 25 BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST
THAN HIGHWAY 27. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT CONSIDERABLE
MELTING WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT
THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO UPPER 40S IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING H5 LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THEREAFTER. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH DRY POPS TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TREND MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OCCURRING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT
WILL EXIT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LESS AMPLIFICATION AND A TRACK THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING FOR BOTH
SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER/NEAR THE SITES
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION CEILINGS WILL
STAY/LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KICT 300801
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WITH A SECONDARY
EMBEDDED WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE. THIS SECONDARY WAVE WILL
SCOOT ACROSS KANSAS TODAY AND COULD GENERATE MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER KANSAS WITH
PERSIST NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA.
ANY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE QUALITY
BEING LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
STORE FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL
SHOWS COOLER AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE
ECMWF MODEL HAS THIS COOLER AIRMASS EAST OF KANSAS. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR ANY
POSSIBLE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE
OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS WILL END MOST OF THE VCSH AFTER ABOUT 08-
09Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS.  THINK THE LOW
STRATUS WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.

COULD SEE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS NEAR KRSL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  43  61  44 /  10   0  10  40
HUTCHINSON      61  42  59  42 /  10  10  10  40
NEWTON          63  43  60  43 /  10  10  10  30
ELDORADO        65  44  62  44 /  10  10  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  44  64  44 /   0   0  10  30
RUSSELL         54  40  55  40 /  30  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      56  40  56  41 /  20  10  10  50
SALINA          60  42  57  43 /  20  10  10  40
MCPHERSON       60  42  58  42 /  10  10  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         71  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
IOLA            70  46  62  45 /  10  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  46  64  46 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...BDK




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300740
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
240 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

The next closed low will be near Phoenix at sunrise Sunday, but
rapidly weaken into a weak open wave as it arrives in Kansas
late Sunday and Sunday night. Still, lift and moisture ahead of
this arriving system will be sufficient for another round of
scattered rain showers for SW KS, centered on the Sunday
afternoon/evening time frame. With forcing for ascent weakening as
it arrives, kept pop grids conservative (mainly 50% or less), and
rainfall from this system will pale in comparison from what we
have seen recently. Still carrying 0.10-0.20 inch in the QPF
grids, but this may be overdone with this weakening system.
Another cloudy unseasonably chilly day Sunday, with little change
in 850 temps/thickness from Saturday. Highs mainly in the 50s,
well below normal for the first day of May.

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas on Monday, providing a
few more scattered showers and keeping temperatures still well
below normal. The remainder of next week will feature quiet
weather with a pronounced warming trend. Strong high pressure over
Alberta Monday afternoon will evolve into a sharp ridge over the
Rocky Mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon temperatures
will warm several degrees each of these days, although very wet
soils will slow this process down some. Friday will be the warmest
day of this forecast, as high pressure ridge axis spreads into
Kansas. Strong closed low near Los Angeles Friday evening is
progged by ECMWF to eject quickly to the Nebraska panhandle
Saturday afternoon. This evolution would bring strong winds to
SW KS late this week, along with severe convective potential along
the associated dry line. Entering the peak of our severe weather
season, and this will be watched carefully over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  39  55  40 /  10  10  40  50
GCK  55  37  53  38 /  20  10  40  50
EHA  57  38  51  38 /  10  20  50  50
LBL  60  39  54  41 /  10  10  50  50
HYS  52  40  53  39 /  30  20  40  50
P28  65  43  62  43 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300540
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Closed 552 dm cyclone passing through NW Kansas this morning,
with cool advection and persistent stratus across SW Kansas. The
meaningful rainfall has ended. Kept slight chances of a rain
shower mentioned across the northern zones today, to account for
any wraparound moisture and the trailing vorticity at the base of
the low, but it will not be much. Unseasonably chilly today,
compliments of cool NW flow behind cyclone ejecting to near Grand
Island by 7 pm. Afternoon high temperatures Saturday will range
from only the upper 40s in NW Trego county to the upper 60s at
Kiowa in Barber County. Most locations averaging 10-15 degrees
below average for the final day of April, with NW winds of 15-25
mph this afternoon. Low stratus ceilings this morning will
gradually lift and erode to broken stratocumulus this afternoon
for most locales, although lower ceilings will be more persistent
with northern extent (near Hays) closer to the ejecting low and
its associated vorticity lobes. A mostly cloudy sky will persist
tonight, with lows Sunday morning ranging from the lower 30s in
northern Hamilton county to the lower 40s in Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  58  39  55 /  80  10  10  20
GCK  37  55  37  52 /  80  20  10  30
EHA  34  57  38  52 /  20  10  20  40
LBL  36  60  39  55 /  50  10  10  30
HYS  40  52  40  53 / 100  30  20  20
P28  44  65  43  61 /  70   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300507
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A
BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT THIS BROAD BAND TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS.

MEANWHILE A BAND OF STRONG AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THE EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE LIFT THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THIS BROAD BAND OF LIFT...MUCH WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THIS BAND WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

AM EXPECTING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO BE
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27. HAVE ALREADY HAD SNOWFALL REPORTS IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDING
DOWN ON RADAR ALREADY...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL INSTEAD HANDLE THIS EVENT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS SINCE THE WORST OF THE EVENT IS
ALREADY ONGOING.

DUE TO THE SUDDEN NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND SLEET...THERE
HAVE BEEN MANY SLIDE-OFFS AND ACCIDENTS REPORTED ALONG I-70 FROM
KIT CARSON COUNTY TO THOMAS COUNTY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INTERSTATE
BEING SHUT DOWN FROM COLBY TO THE KS/CO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT
OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT 19Z...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD GET AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 25 BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST
THAN HIGHWAY 27. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT CONSIDERABLE
MELTING WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT
THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO UPPER 40S IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS THE PERIOD NEAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO COME TO AN END.
FOR SUNDAY QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WE WATCH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
TO GOODLAND TO GOVE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST
TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PIECE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA AND UTAH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CANT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING PRETTY QUICKLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUGGESTING A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST)
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S WEST...UPPER 30S
EAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE WEST
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 75 (WEST TO EAST).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY WHILE FOR OUR AREA ABOVE MENTIONED
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD NUDGE OUR RIDGE AXIS JUST A
BIT FURTHER EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. PREDOMINANTLY IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM NOW THROUGH THE LATE MORNING FOR BOTH
SITES. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER/NEAR THE SITES
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION CEILINGS WILL
STAY/LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 300503
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1203 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Rain has overspread most of the forecast area as of this mid
afternoon, with some areas in Ottawa county accumulating around an
inch and a half of rain so far today. Expect this area to continue
to spread east through the evening hours, with generally up to an
inch of rain possible by early Saturday morning.  Good news would be
that models are moving this system east a little quicker, and should
dry out much of the forecast area south of I70 for a good part of
the day on Saturday.  Locations along the Nebraska border linger in
the rain longer as the surface low wraps precipitation back
southeast into that area through the day. For the most part
anticipate rain to be light to moderate, as effective shear around
25 kts doesn`t have much instability to work with this far north.
More likely potential will be south of the interstate where some
of that instability works its way northeast through the overnight
hours. Lows fall into the 40s and 50s tonight before rising to
near 60 northwest and near 70 across east central Kansas saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Frontal boundary and upper trough lifts into southern Nebraska by
the evening, ending most of the precip across the southern half of
the area. A mid level shortwave trough drops southeast over the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, shifting the trough axis back over
northeast Kansas during the afternoon. In conjunction with a weak
pulse of energy ejecting out of the broad upper trough from the
southwest CONUS, showers may redevelop from the west Sunday evening.
Rain intensity looks to be primarily light. Highs remain cool Sunday
underneath mostly cloudy skies with readings from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Upper ridging builds over the western and central sections of the
country, ending the active upper air pattern for much of the week.
Highs quickly recover back into the 70s for highs Tuesday onward
while overnight lows hover in the upper 40s. By the end of the week,
a negatively tilted trough deepens over the west, gradually breaking
down the ridge and bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

For the 06z TAFs, main concern is on the scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms that will persist off and on through the overnight
hours. Expect persistent MVFR to IFR cigs overnight into Saturday
morning with the scattered precipitation, with some model
guidance even suggesting some periods of LIFR cigs overnight, so
will need to continue to monitor that potential. MVFR vis will be
possible at times with the scattered precipitation. While the
last of the scattered precipitation should lift north of the TAF
sites Saturday morning, IFR/MVFR cigs may linger through late
morning before improving to VFR Saturday afternoon. East
northeasterly winds will shift to the southwest by Saturday
morning behind the exiting precipitation.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 300503
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1203 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Rain has overspread most of the forecast area as of this mid
afternoon, with some areas in Ottawa county accumulating around an
inch and a half of rain so far today. Expect this area to continue
to spread east through the evening hours, with generally up to an
inch of rain possible by early Saturday morning.  Good news would be
that models are moving this system east a little quicker, and should
dry out much of the forecast area south of I70 for a good part of
the day on Saturday.  Locations along the Nebraska border linger in
the rain longer as the surface low wraps precipitation back
southeast into that area through the day. For the most part
anticipate rain to be light to moderate, as effective shear around
25 kts doesn`t have much instability to work with this far north.
More likely potential will be south of the interstate where some
of that instability works its way northeast through the overnight
hours. Lows fall into the 40s and 50s tonight before rising to
near 60 northwest and near 70 across east central Kansas saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Frontal boundary and upper trough lifts into southern Nebraska by
the evening, ending most of the precip across the southern half of
the area. A mid level shortwave trough drops southeast over the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, shifting the trough axis back over
northeast Kansas during the afternoon. In conjunction with a weak
pulse of energy ejecting out of the broad upper trough from the
southwest CONUS, showers may redevelop from the west Sunday evening.
Rain intensity looks to be primarily light. Highs remain cool Sunday
underneath mostly cloudy skies with readings from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Upper ridging builds over the western and central sections of the
country, ending the active upper air pattern for much of the week.
Highs quickly recover back into the 70s for highs Tuesday onward
while overnight lows hover in the upper 40s. By the end of the week,
a negatively tilted trough deepens over the west, gradually breaking
down the ridge and bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

For the 06z TAFs, main concern is on the scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms that will persist off and on through the overnight
hours. Expect persistent MVFR to IFR cigs overnight into Saturday
morning with the scattered precipitation, with some model
guidance even suggesting some periods of LIFR cigs overnight, so
will need to continue to monitor that potential. MVFR vis will be
possible at times with the scattered precipitation. While the
last of the scattered precipitation should lift north of the TAF
sites Saturday morning, IFR/MVFR cigs may linger through late
morning before improving to VFR Saturday afternoon. East
northeasterly winds will shift to the southwest by Saturday
morning behind the exiting precipitation.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  80  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  80  10  10  30
EHA  34  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  36  58  38  55 /  50  10  10  30
HYS  40  53  41  53 / 100  30  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  80  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  80  10  10  30
EHA  34  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  36  58  38  55 /  50  10  10  30
HYS  40  53  41  53 / 100  30  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner




000
FXUS63 KICT 300449
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE HAS LED TO A SCATTERED LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM KRSL SOUTH TO
KINGMAN.  THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...SO EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE LATE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS
LIFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WILL ALSO LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL...WHERE THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER...IE...AROUND 600-800 J/KG.

LATEST RAP13 SHOWS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE IMPULSE LIFTS NE... WITH MOST OF THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS...WILL BE THE LAST ROUND
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CAPPED TO NEAR- SURFACE BASED PARCELS...500-1500 J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW
GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS.

BASED TONIGHT`S FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE LATEST RAP/HRRR.
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ARE WAY TOO SLOW CLEARING PRECIPITATION OUT.
THAT SAID...THINKING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 5PM...WITH AT LEAST SOME RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS EVENING WEST OF I-135 SPREADING EAST AS
STRONG QG FORCING CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GIVEN
EXTENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUSPECT IT WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
CURRENT...ALTHOUGH MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS. ANTICIPATE ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
EXIT FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2-4 AM.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING UPPER ENERGY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF KS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEAK
FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL/DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES
AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL RELOAD BY NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE
OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS WILL END MOST OF THE VCSH AFTER ABOUT 08-
09Z. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS.  THINK THE LOW
STRATUS WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.

COULD SEE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGER ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS NEAR KRSL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  66  45  62 /  60  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      48  63  43  60 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          50  63  44  61 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        52  66  45  63 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  68  45  66 /  60   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  56  42  56 /  60  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      44  58  41  57 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          49  62  45  58 /  60  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       49  62  44  59 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     57  74  47  67 /  80  10  10  10
CHANUTE         58  72  47  64 /  80  10  10  10
IOLA            56  72  47  63 /  80  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  73  47  66 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BDK
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...BDK




000
FXUS63 KICT 300228
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
928 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE HAS LED TO A SCATTERED LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM KRSL SOUTH TO
KINGMAN.  THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...SO EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE LATE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS
LIFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WILL ALSO LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL...WHERE THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER...IE...AROUND 600-800 J/KG.

LATEST RAP13 SHOWS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE IMPULSE LIFTS NE... WITH MOST OF THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS...WILL BE THE LAST ROUND
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CAPPED TO NEAR- SURFACE BASED PARCELS...500-1500 J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW
GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS.

BASED TONIGHT`S FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE LATEST RAP/HRRR.
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ARE WAY TOO SLOW CLEARING PRECIPITATION OUT.
THAT SAID...THINKING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 5PM...WITH AT LEAST SOME RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS EVENING WEST OF I-135 SPREADING EAST AS
STRONG QG FORCING CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GIVEN
EXTENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUSPECT IT WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
CURRENT...ALTHOUGH MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS. ANTICIPATE ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
EXIT FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2-4 AM.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING UPPER ENERGY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF KS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEAK
FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL/DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES
AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL RELOAD BY NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL STORM MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME
VCSH AND VCTS CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THINK MOST OF THE VCTS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN KS WHERE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED.  COULD
ALSO SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS.  THINK THE LOW STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  66  45  62 /  60  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      48  63  43  60 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          50  63  44  61 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        52  66  45  63 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  68  45  66 /  60   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  56  42  56 /  60  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      44  58  41  57 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          49  62  45  58 /  60  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       49  62  44  59 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     57  74  47  67 /  80  10  10  10
CHANUTE         58  72  47  64 /  80  10  10  10
IOLA            56  72  47  63 /  80  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  73  47  66 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BDK
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KETCHAM




000
FXUS63 KICT 300228
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
928 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN IMPULSE HAS LED TO A SCATTERED LINE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM KRSL SOUTH TO
KINGMAN.  THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS JUST AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...AS IT
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...SO EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
LIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE LATE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS
LIFT AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE WILL ALSO LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FLINT HILLS AS WELL...WHERE THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER...IE...AROUND 600-800 J/KG.

LATEST RAP13 SHOWS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE IMPULSE LIFTS NE... WITH MOST OF THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALSO SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO
CURRENT THINKING IS BOTH AREAS OF SHOWERS...WILL BE THE LAST ROUND
FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CAPPED TO NEAR- SURFACE BASED PARCELS...500-1500 J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW
GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS.

BASED TONIGHT`S FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE LATEST RAP/HRRR.
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ARE WAY TOO SLOW CLEARING PRECIPITATION OUT.
THAT SAID...THINKING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 5PM...WITH AT LEAST SOME RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS EVENING WEST OF I-135 SPREADING EAST AS
STRONG QG FORCING CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GIVEN
EXTENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUSPECT IT WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
CURRENT...ALTHOUGH MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS. ANTICIPATE ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
EXIT FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2-4 AM.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING UPPER ENERGY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF KS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEAK
FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL/DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES
AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL RELOAD BY NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL STORM MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME
VCSH AND VCTS CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THINK MOST OF THE VCTS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN KS WHERE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED.  COULD
ALSO SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS.  THINK THE LOW STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  66  45  62 /  60  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      48  63  43  60 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          50  63  44  61 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        52  66  45  63 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  68  45  66 /  60   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  56  42  56 /  60  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      44  58  41  57 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          49  62  45  58 /  60  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       49  62  44  59 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     57  74  47  67 /  80  10  10  10
CHANUTE         58  72  47  64 /  80  10  10  10
IOLA            56  72  47  63 /  80  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  73  47  66 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BDK
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KETCHAM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A
BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT THIS BROAD BAND TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS.

MEANWHILE A BAND OF STRONG AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THE EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE LIFT THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THIS BROAD BAND OF LIFT...MUCH WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THIS BAND WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

AM EXPECTING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO BE
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27. HAVE ALREADY HAD SNOWFALL REPORTS IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDING
DOWN ON RADAR ALREADY...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL INSTEAD HANDLE THIS EVENT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS SINCE THE WORST OF THE EVENT IS
ALREADY ONGOING.

DUE TO THE SUDDEN NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND SLEET...THERE
HAVE BEEN MANY SLIDE-OFFS AND ACCIDENTS REPORTED ALONG I-70 FROM
KIT CARSON COUNTY TO THOMAS COUNTY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INTERSTATE
BEING SHUT DOWN FROM COLBY TO THE KS/CO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT
OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT 19Z...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD GET AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 25 BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST
THAN HIGHWAY 27. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT CONSIDERABLE
MELTING WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT
THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO UPPER 40S IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS THE PERIOD NEAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO COME TO AN END.
FOR SUNDAY QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WE WATCH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
TO GOODLAND TO GOVE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST
TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PIECE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA AND UTAH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CANT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING PRETTY QUICKLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUGGESTING A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST)
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S WEST...UPPER 30S
EAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE WEST
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 75 (WEST TO EAST).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY WHILE FOR OUR AREA ABOVE MENTIONED
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD NUDGE OUR RIDGE AXIS JUST A
BIT FURTHER EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. VERY COMPLICATED
WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND THEN SNOW FROM EAST TO WEST. VISIBILITY DROPPED TO A
QUARTER MILE AT KGLD WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. AM EXPECTING THE
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT EITHER DUE TO VERY LOW CEILING OR LOW
VISIBILITY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT AFTER THIS MAIN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/SNOW MOVES
NORTHWARD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A
BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT THIS BROAD BAND TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS.

MEANWHILE A BAND OF STRONG AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT CURRENTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST.
EXPECT THE EAST SIDE OF THE BROAD PRECIPITATION AREA TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE LIFT THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THIS BROAD BAND OF LIFT...MUCH WEAKER ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE SECOND
ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THIS BAND WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

AM EXPECTING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO BE
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 27. HAVE ALREADY HAD SNOWFALL REPORTS IN THE 2-4 INCH
RANGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. WITH THE PRECIPITATION WINDING
DOWN ON RADAR ALREADY...DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. WILL INSTEAD HANDLE THIS EVENT WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA POSTS SINCE THE WORST OF THE EVENT IS
ALREADY ONGOING.

DUE TO THE SUDDEN NATURE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AND SLEET...THERE
HAVE BEEN MANY SLIDE-OFFS AND ACCIDENTS REPORTED ALONG I-70 FROM
KIT CARSON COUNTY TO THOMAS COUNTY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INTERSTATE
BEING SHUT DOWN FROM COLBY TO THE KS/CO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT
OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT 19Z...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD GET AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 25 BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST
THAN HIGHWAY 27. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT CONSIDERABLE
MELTING WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT
THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO UPPER 40S IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS THE PERIOD NEAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO COME TO AN END.
FOR SUNDAY QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WE WATCH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
TO GOODLAND TO GOVE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST
TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PIECE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA AND UTAH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CANT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING PRETTY QUICKLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUGGESTING A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST)
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S WEST...UPPER 30S
EAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE WEST
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 75 (WEST TO EAST).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY WHILE FOR OUR AREA ABOVE MENTIONED
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD NUDGE OUR RIDGE AXIS JUST A
BIT FURTHER EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAFS. VERY COMPLICATED
WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND THEN SNOW FROM EAST TO WEST. VISIBILITY DROPPED TO A
QUARTER MILE AT KGLD WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. AM EXPECTING THE
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. AM EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT EITHER DUE TO VERY LOW CEILING OR LOW
VISIBILITY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT AFTER THIS MAIN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/SNOW MOVES
NORTHWARD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 292333
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Rain has overspread most of the forecast area as of this mid
afternoon, with some areas in Ottawa county accumulating around an
inch and a half of rain so far today. Expect this area to continue
to spread east through the evening hours, with generally up to an
inch of rain possible by early Saturday morning.  Good news would be
that models are moving this system east a little quicker, and should
dry out much of the forecast area south of I70 for a good part of
the day on Saturday.  Locations along the Nebraska border linger in
the rain longer as the surface low wraps precipitation back
southeast into that area through the day. For the most part
anticipate rain to be light to moderate, as effective shear around
25 kts doesn`t have much instability to work with this far north.
More likely potential will be south of the interstate where some
of that instability works its way northeast through the overnight
hours. Lows fall into the 40s and 50s tonight before rising to
near 60 northwest and near 70 across east central Kansas saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Frontal boundary and upper trough lifts into southern Nebraska by
the evening, ending most of the precip across the southern half of
the area. A mid level shortwave trough drops southeast over the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, shifting the trough axis back over
northeast Kansas during the afternoon. In conjunction with a weak
pulse of energy ejecting out of the broad upper trough from the
southwest CONUS, showers may redevelop from the west Sunday evening.
Rain intensity looks to be primarily light. Highs remain cool Sunday
underneath mostly cloudy skies with readings from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Upper ridging builds over the western and central sections of the
country, ending the active upper air pattern for much of the week.
Highs quickly recover back into the 70s for highs Tuesday onward
while overnight lows hover in the upper 40s. By the end of the week,
a negatively tilted trough deepens over the west, gradually breaking
down the ridge and bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

For the 00z TAFs, main concern is on the scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms that will persist off and on through most
of the evening and overnight hours. However, KTOP/KFOE may see a
few more breaks in the precipitation compared to KMHK. Expect the
MVFR cigs this evening to drop to IFR at times with the scattered
precipitation and certainly during the overnight hours. Some model
guidance even suggests that cigs may drop to LIFR conditions at
times overnight, so will need to continue to monitor that
potential. MVFR vis will be possible at times with precipitation.
While the last of the scattered precipitation should lift north of
the TAF sites Saturday morning, IFR/MVFR cigs may linger through
late morning before improving to VFR Saturday afternoon. East
northeasterly winds will shift to the southwest by Saturday
morning behind the exiting precipitation.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KICT 292332
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CAPPED TO NEAR- SURFACE BASED PARCELS...500-1500 J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW
GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS.

BASED TONIGHT`S FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE LATEST RAP/HRRR.
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ARE WAY TOO SLOW CLEARING PRECIPITATION OUT.
THAT SAID...THINKING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 5PM...WITH AT LEAST SOME RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS EVENING WEST OF I-135 SPREADING EAST AS
STRONG QG FORCING CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GIVEN
EXTENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUSPECT IT WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
CURRENT...ALTHOUGH MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS. ANTICIPATE ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
EXIT FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2-4 AM.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING UPPER ENERGY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF KS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEAK
FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL/DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES
AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL RELOAD BY NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. MID LEVEL STORM MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME
VCSH AND VCTS CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  THINK MOST OF THE VCTS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN KS WHERE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED.  COULD
ALSO SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS.  THINK THE LOW STRATUS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  66  45  62 /  60  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      48  63  43  60 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          50  63  44  61 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        52  66  45  63 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  68  45  66 /  60   0   0  10
RUSSELL         44  56  42  56 /  60  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      44  58  41  57 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          49  62  45  58 /  60  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       49  62  44  59 /  60  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     57  74  47  67 /  80  10  10  10
CHANUTE         60  72  47  64 /  80  10  10  10
IOLA            58  72  47  63 /  80  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  73  47  66 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...KETCHAM




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292311
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers and areas of IFR conditions, will gradually end from
west to east after 02-04Z at KDDC and KGCK, and after 06Z at
KHYS. MVFR conditions are mostly forecast after that as an upper
level wave moves northeast and downslope winds move into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  70  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  70  10  10  30
EHA  35  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  37  58  38  55 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  41  53  41  53 /  90  40  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292311
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers and areas of IFR conditions, will gradually end from
west to east after 02-04Z at KDDC and KGCK, and after 06Z at
KHYS. MVFR conditions are mostly forecast after that as an upper
level wave moves northeast and downslope winds move into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  70  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  70  10  10  30
EHA  35  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  37  58  38  55 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  41  53  41  53 /  90  40  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292309
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
509 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT
OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT 19Z...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD GET AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 25 BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST
THAN HIGHWAY 27. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT CONSIDERABLE
MELTING WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT
THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO UPPER 40S IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS THE PERIOD NEAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO COME TO AN END.
FOR SUNDAY QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WE WATCH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
TO GOODLAND TO GOVE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST
TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PIECE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA AND UTAH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CANT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING PRETTY QUICKLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUGGESTING A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST)
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S WEST...UPPER 30S
EAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE WEST
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 75 (WEST TO EAST).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY WHILE FOR OUR AREA ABOVE MENTIONED
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD NUDGE OUR RIDGE AXIS JUST A
BIT FURTHER EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
CUT OFF OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE
OCCASIONAL BREAKS ON RADAR IN THE PRECIPITATION...BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN BREEZY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292309
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
509 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT
OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT 19Z...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD GET AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 25 BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST
THAN HIGHWAY 27. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT CONSIDERABLE
MELTING WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT
THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO UPPER 40S IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LOW BEGINS THE PERIOD NEAR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO COME TO AN END.
FOR SUNDAY QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WE WATCH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BENKELMAN
TO GOODLAND TO GOVE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST
TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A PIECE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
NEVADA AND UTAH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT
CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CANT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING PRETTY QUICKLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT TRIES TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SUGGESTING A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST)
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA
SUGGESTING DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S WEST...UPPER 30S
EAST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH INTO MEXICO MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH REACHING THE WEST
COAST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 75 (WEST TO EAST).

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO CLOSE OFF OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY WHILE FOR OUR AREA ABOVE MENTIONED
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE. ON FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH SHOULD NUDGE OUR RIDGE AXIS JUST A
BIT FURTHER EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (WEST TO EAST) WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
CUT OFF OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE
OCCASIONAL BREAKS ON RADAR IN THE PRECIPITATION...BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN BREEZY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DDT
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KTOP 292028
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
328 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Rain has overspread most of the forecast area as of this mid
afternoon, with some areas in Ottawa county accumulating around an
inch and a half of rain so far today. Expect this area to continue
to spread east through the evening hours, with generally up to an
inch of rain possible by early Saturday morning.  Good news would be
that models are moving this system east a little quicker, and should
dry out much of the forecast area south of I70 for a good part of
the day on Saturday.  Locations along the Nebraska border linger in
the rain longer as the surface low wraps precipitation back
southeast into that area through the day. For the most part
anticipate rain to be light to moderate, as effective shear around
25 kts doesn`t have much instability to work with this far north.
More likey potential will be south of the interstate wheresome of
that instability works its way northeast through the overnight
hours.  Lows fall into the 40s and 50s tonight before rising to near
60 northwest and near 70 across east central Kansas saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Frontal boundary and upper trough lifts into southern Nebraska by
the evening, ending most of the precip across the southern half of
the area. A mid level shortwave trough drops southeast over the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, shifting the trough axis back over
northeast Kansas during the afternoon. In conjunction with a weak
pulse of energy ejecting out of the broad upper trough from the
southwest CONUS, showers may redevelop from the west Sunday evening.
Rain intensity looks to be primarily light. Highs remain cool Sunday
underneath mostly cloudy skies with readings from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Upper ridging builds over the western and central sections of the
country, ending the active upper air pattern for much of the week.
Highs quickly recover back into the 70s for highs Tuesday onward
while overnight lows hover in the upper 40s. By the end of the week,
a negatively tilted trough deepens over the west, gradually breaking
down the ridge and bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR cigs are expected for the duration of the TAF period. An area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms across central and western
KS will continue to push northeast. Current thinking is the
activity will reach MHK near 20Z and the Topeka terminals near
21Z. Latest model guidance is beginning to hint at the possibility
of IFR cigs during the overnight hours. However, confidence it too
low at this point and will continue to monitor in later outlooks.
Rain is expected to lift north out of the terminals near 13Z,
although low cloud cover may persist through the end of the
period.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KTOP 292028
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
328 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Rain has overspread most of the forecast area as of this mid
afternoon, with some areas in Ottawa county accumulating around an
inch and a half of rain so far today. Expect this area to continue
to spread east through the evening hours, with generally up to an
inch of rain possible by early Saturday morning.  Good news would be
that models are moving this system east a little quicker, and should
dry out much of the forecast area south of I70 for a good part of
the day on Saturday.  Locations along the Nebraska border linger in
the rain longer as the surface low wraps precipitation back
southeast into that area through the day. For the most part
anticipate rain to be light to moderate, as effective shear around
25 kts doesn`t have much instability to work with this far north.
More likey potential will be south of the interstate wheresome of
that instability works its way northeast through the overnight
hours.  Lows fall into the 40s and 50s tonight before rising to near
60 northwest and near 70 across east central Kansas saturday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

Frontal boundary and upper trough lifts into southern Nebraska by
the evening, ending most of the precip across the southern half of
the area. A mid level shortwave trough drops southeast over the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, shifting the trough axis back over
northeast Kansas during the afternoon. In conjunction with a weak
pulse of energy ejecting out of the broad upper trough from the
southwest CONUS, showers may redevelop from the west Sunday evening.
Rain intensity looks to be primarily light. Highs remain cool Sunday
underneath mostly cloudy skies with readings from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Upper ridging builds over the western and central sections of the
country, ending the active upper air pattern for much of the week.
Highs quickly recover back into the 70s for highs Tuesday onward
while overnight lows hover in the upper 40s. By the end of the week,
a negatively tilted trough deepens over the west, gradually breaking
down the ridge and bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR cigs are expected for the duration of the TAF period. An area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms across central and western
KS will continue to push northeast. Current thinking is the
activity will reach MHK near 20Z and the Topeka terminals near
21Z. Latest model guidance is beginning to hint at the possibility
of IFR cigs during the overnight hours. However, confidence it too
low at this point and will continue to monitor in later outlooks.
Rain is expected to lift north out of the terminals near 13Z,
although low cloud cover may persist through the end of the
period.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KICT 292027
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONCERT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS CAPPED TO NEAR- SURFACE BASED PARCELS...500-1500 J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREATS ARE 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AND 60-70 MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH POCKETS OF VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW
GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS.

BASED TONIGHT`S FORECAST PRIMARILY OFF THE LATEST RAP/HRRR.
GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ARE WAY TOO SLOW CLEARING PRECIPITATION OUT.
THAT SAID...THINKING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 5PM...WITH AT LEAST SOME RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS EVENING WEST OF I-135 SPREADING EAST AS
STRONG QG FORCING CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UNCERTAIN ON HOW WIDESPREAD THIS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GIVEN
EXTENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUSPECT IT WON`T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
CURRENT...ALTHOUGH MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COULD STILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS. ANTICIPATE ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
EXIT FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2-4 AM.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OTHERWISE...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. LINGERING UPPER ENERGY MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN HALF OF KS SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. WEAK
FORCING AND NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL.

BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT TRANQUIL/DRY
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES
AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL RELOAD BY NEXT WEEKEND...SUPPORTING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN PART DUE TO EASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM OKLAHOMA...AND
PARTLY FROM OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER STORM
CORES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...AFFECTING HUT...ICT...AND CNU LATE
THIS PM/EVE. HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE LOW STRATUS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENSUE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  68  45  62 /  70  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      48  63  43  60 /  70  10  10  10
NEWTON          50  65  44  61 /  80  10  10  10
ELDORADO        52  69  45  63 /  80  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  70  45  66 /  70  10   0  10
RUSSELL         44  58  42  56 /  80  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      44  59  41  57 /  70  20  10  10
SALINA          49  63  45  58 /  80  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       49  63  44  59 /  80  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     57  74  47  67 /  80  10  10  10
CHANUTE         60  73  47  64 /  90  20  10  10
IOLA            59  72  47  63 /  90  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  74  47  66 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291933
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Occasional rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible across western and north central Kansas through
tonight. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast between 06z and 12z Saturday. Until
this rain tapers off IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be
expected at all three taf sites. In some of the steadier and
heavier showers late this afternoon LIFR ceilings. Once the
precipitation ends the ceilings will begin to improve.
Northeasterly winds at around 15 knots this afternoon will shift
to the northwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots after 03z
Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  40  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  30  10  10  30
EHA  35  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  38  58  38  55 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  42  53  41  53 /  70  40  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291933
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Occasional rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible across western and north central Kansas through
tonight. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast between 06z and 12z Saturday. Until
this rain tapers off IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be
expected at all three taf sites. In some of the steadier and
heavier showers late this afternoon LIFR ceilings. Once the
precipitation ends the ceilings will begin to improve.
Northeasterly winds at around 15 knots this afternoon will shift
to the northwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots after 03z
Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  40  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  30  10  10  30
EHA  35  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  38  58  38  55 /  20  10  10  30
HYS  42  53  41  53 /  70  40  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291914
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND CUT
OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND HOW FAR EAST TO BRING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT 19Z...RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 59 IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. IT HAS BEEN VERY SLOWLY CREEPING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT EXPECT
THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD GET AS FAR EAST AS
HIGHWAY 25 BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MORE LIKELY NO FURTHER EAST
THAN HIGHWAY 27. MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY TO GRASSY
AND ELEVATED SURFACES WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT CONSIDERABLE
MELTING WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECT
THEM TO BE WET WITH POSSIBLE SLUSHY SPOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY
WILL BECOME NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN COLORADO TO AROUND 40 IN
NORTON AND HILL CITY...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO TO UPPER 40S IN NORTON AND HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE 70S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
CUT OFF OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE
OCCASIONAL BREAKS ON RADAR IN THE PRECIPITATION...BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN BREEZY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KTOP 291740
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

An upper level trough was located across the four corners region
early this morning and will lift northeast into northwest KS by late
Friday night.

Showers this morning were due to weak isentropic lift and a minor
short-wave trough lifting northeast across central KS. These showers
should diminish as they lift northeast across the CWA through the
early morning hours.

This afternoon deeper gulf moisture at 850mb will begin to advect
northward from OK into southern KS. The resulting isentropic lift
will cause showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms to develop
from southwest to northeast across the CWA.

Highs Today will be cool with cloudy skies and a chance for rain
showers. Highs across north central KS may only reach the lower to
mid 50s with highs across the southeast counties reaching the mid
60s.

Tonight...The main H5 trough axis will lift northeast across the TX
PNHDL into northwest OK and then into KS, there will be stronger
ascent combined with isentropic lift for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the CWA. If the instability
increases sufficiently through the evening hours, then there could
be some strong to marginally severe elevated thunderstorms,
generally along and south of I-70. The primary hazard would be penny
to quarter size hail. The NAM model show only 400 to 800 J/KG of
MUCAPE developing across the CWA during the night along with 30 to
40 KTS of effective shear from the LFC up to 6 KM. The synoptic warm
front will lift from southern OK, northward into southeast KS by 9Z
SAT, thus the thunderstorms Friday night will remain elevated.

Total QPF today through tonight will range from near an inch
across north central KS to 0.6" across northeast KS. Most of the
QPF will occur over a 12 hour period, therefore I did not issue a
flood watch. River rises will probably occur and a few rivers may
approach or go over flood stage. However, if the instability is
forecast to increase and we see more elevated thunderstorms
through the night, then a flood watch may need to be issued, since
we could see more QPF and the potential of 1 inch of rainfall
within a three hour period with more numerous elevated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

On Saturday, the elongated upper level low pressure located over
western Kansas will move east through the afternoon.  At the
surface, a low pressure center is expected to lift northeast across
the area that afternoon.  The GFS and NAM continue to show just
enough CAPE and shear to allow for strong to severe storms to form
on Saturday.  Some shorter range guidance suggest that storms will
be north of the best instability in the afternoon as a dry slow
works into northeast Kansas, making the severe weather threat
conditional for that afternoon. After sundown, any instability would
move east of the area allowing for any mention of thunderstorms to
be removed from this time frame. Chances for rain decrease Sunday
and Sunday night as the upper low moves northeast of the area.
Surface winds shift out of the north Sunday aiding in cold air
advection and highs topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s. On
Sunday night and Monday, a shortwave in the southern stream flow
across the CONUS could allow for a small chance for showers.  From
here, the forecast is mainly quiet and dry with a warm up trend
through the end of the period. Temperatures should be back up to the
upper 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR cigs are expected for the duration of the TAF period. An area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms across central and western
KS will continue to push northeast. Current thinking is the
activity will reach MHK near 20Z and the Topeka terminals near
21Z. Latest model guidance is beginning to hint at the possibility
of IFR cigs during the overnight hours. However, confidence it too
low at this point and will continue to monitor in later outlooks.
Rain is expected to lift north out of the terminals near 13Z,
although low cloud cover may persist through the end of the
period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KICT 291728
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1228 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND LINGER DURING THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION COULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS...AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. WE STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO
SPREAD INTO KANSAS TODAY...AND LOOKS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OUT INTO
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF DECENT WIND SHEAR/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ROTATES ACROSS KANSAS...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THEREAFTER WITH LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOWING A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS PERIOD IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS SHOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN PART DUE TO EASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM OKLAHOMA...AND
PARTLY FROM OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER STORM
CORES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH...AFFECTING HUT...ICT...AND CNU LATE
THIS PM/EVE. HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE LOW STRATUS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE AND DISSIPATE TOWARD MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...AS
WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ENSUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  48  68  45 /  80  80  10  10
HUTCHINSON      56  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  10
NEWTON          58  48  67  45 /  80  80  20  10
ELDORADO        62  52  69  46 /  80  80  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  50  70  46 /  80  80  10  10
RUSSELL         51  41  59  41 / 100  90  40  20
GREAT BEND      52  42  61  41 / 100  80  20  20
SALINA          55  45  65  44 / 100  80  40  20
MCPHERSON       56  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  54  73  48 /  80  80  20  10
CHANUTE         64  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            64  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  56  72  48 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291716
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1116 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY.  THIS LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST INTO MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT DEFINITE
POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. POPS START DECREASING TO CHANCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.  A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FA WILL BE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  POPS REMAIN
RATHER LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE
TROUGH IN THE WEST BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
FORECAST IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OCCUR.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND
BASED ON THAT THE SNOW LINE STAYS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH RAIN AND
SNOW PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS
POINT THINK THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. WINDS ARE BREEZY DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE WET SNOW SHOULD NOT BLOW MUCH IF ANY. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS WELL BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE
LOWER 40S EAST.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.  MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE 70S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
CUT OFF OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE
OCCASIONAL BREAKS ON RADAR IN THE PRECIPITATION...BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN BREEZY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291716
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1116 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY.  THIS LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST INTO MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT DEFINITE
POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. POPS START DECREASING TO CHANCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.  A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FA WILL BE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  POPS REMAIN
RATHER LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE
TROUGH IN THE WEST BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
FORECAST IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OCCUR.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND
BASED ON THAT THE SNOW LINE STAYS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH RAIN AND
SNOW PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS
POINT THINK THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. WINDS ARE BREEZY DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE WET SNOW SHOULD NOT BLOW MUCH IF ANY. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS WELL BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE
LOWER 40S EAST.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.  MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE 70S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND
CUT OFF OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE
OCCASIONAL BREAKS ON RADAR IN THE PRECIPITATION...BUT CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IFR WITH SOME LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND REMAIN BREEZY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291716
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

At 12z Friday a 700mb and 500mb trough/low was located near the
four corner2 region with a 250mb jet extending from the base of
this upper low northeast into eastern New Mexico. Another upper
level trough was located off the British Columbia coast. An 850mb
baroclinic zone was evident from the panhandle of Texas to
northeast Topeka. A surface stationary front extended from eastern
New Mexico to central Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Occasional rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible across western and north central Kansas through
tonight. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast between 06z and 12z Saturday. Until
this rain tapers off IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be
expected at all three taf sites. In some of the steadier and
heavier showers late this afternoon LIFR ceilings. Once the
precipitation ends the ceilings will begin to improve.
Northeasterly winds at around 15 knots this afternoon will shift
to the northwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots after 03z
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  37  56  39 / 100 100  10  10
GCK  45  35  52  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  43  33  55  36 / 100  20  10  10
LBL  47  36  58  38 / 100  20  10  10
HYS  45  38  53  41 / 100 100  30  20
P28  52  43  64  44 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KICT 291157
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND LINGER DURING THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION COULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS...AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. WE STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO
SPREAD INTO KANSAS TODAY...AND LOOKS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OUT INTO
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF DECENT WIND SHEAR/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ROTATES ACROSS KANSAS...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THEREAFTER WITH LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOWING A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS PERIOD IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS SHOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS.

POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD BE OUR NEXT ROUND OF STORMS. CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW HAILERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH WITH ALREADY GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION TO THE STORMS...CEILINGS WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING TO
IFR LEVELS AT MOST SITES. SHOULD START TO SEE THESE LOWER
CEILINGS LIFT BY AROUND SUNRISE AT MOST SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE KRSL-KSLN WHICH WILL STAY IN THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  48  68  45 /  80  80  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  10
NEWTON          63  48  67  45 /  80  80  20  10
ELDORADO        65  52  69  46 /  80  80  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  50  70  46 /  80  80  10  10
RUSSELL         51  41  59  41 /  90  90  40  20
GREAT BEND      52  42  61  41 /  80  80  20  20
SALINA          57  45  65  44 /  80  80  40  20
MCPHERSON       59  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  54  73  48 /  80  80  20  10
CHANUTE         67  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    68  56  72  48 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL




000
FXUS63 KICT 291157
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND LINGER DURING THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION COULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS...AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. WE STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO
SPREAD INTO KANSAS TODAY...AND LOOKS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OUT INTO
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF DECENT WIND SHEAR/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ROTATES ACROSS KANSAS...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THEREAFTER WITH LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOWING A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS PERIOD IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS SHOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS.

POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE SHOULD BE OUR NEXT ROUND OF STORMS. CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW HAILERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH WITH ALREADY GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION TO THE STORMS...CEILINGS WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING TO
IFR LEVELS AT MOST SITES. SHOULD START TO SEE THESE LOWER
CEILINGS LIFT BY AROUND SUNRISE AT MOST SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE KRSL-KSLN WHICH WILL STAY IN THE LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT MORNING.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  48  68  45 /  80  80  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  10
NEWTON          63  48  67  45 /  80  80  20  10
ELDORADO        65  52  69  46 /  80  80  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  50  70  46 /  80  80  10  10
RUSSELL         51  41  59  41 /  90  90  40  20
GREAT BEND      52  42  61  41 /  80  80  20  20
SALINA          57  45  65  44 /  80  80  40  20
MCPHERSON       59  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  54  73  48 /  80  80  20  10
CHANUTE         67  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    68  56  72  48 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 291145
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
645 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

An upper level trough was located across the four corners region
early this morning and will lift northeast into northwest KS by late
Friday night.

Showers this morning were due to weak isentropic lift and a minor
short-wave trough lifting northeast across central KS. These showers
should diminish as they lift northeast across the CWA through the
early morning hours.

This afternoon deeper gulf moisture at 850mb will begin to advect
northward from OK into southern KS. The resulting isentropic lift
will cause showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms to develop
from southwest to northeast across the CWA.

Highs Today will be cool with cloudy skies and a chance for rain
showers. Highs across north central KS may only reach the lower to
mid 50s with highs across the southeast counties reaching the mid
60s.

Tonight...The main H5 trough axis will lift northeast across the TX
PNHDL into northwest OK and then into KS, there will be stronger
ascent combined with isentropic lift for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the CWA. If the instability
increases sufficiently through the evening hours, then there could
be some strong to marginally severe elevated thunderstorms,
generally along and south of I-70. The primary hazard would be penny
to quarter size hail. The NAM model show only 400 to 800 J/KG of
MUCAPE developing across the CWA during the night along with 30 to
40 KTS of effective shear from the LFC up to 6 KM. The synoptic warm
front will lift from southern OK, northward into southeast KS by 9Z
SAT, thus the thunderstorms Friday night will remain elevated.

Total QPF today through tonight will range from near an inch
across north central KS to 0.6" across northeast KS. Most of the
QPF will occur over a 12 hour period, therefore I did not issue a
flood watch. River rises will probably occur and a few rivers may
approach or go over flood stage. However, if the instability is
forecast to increase and we see more elevated thunderstorms
through the night, then a flood watch may need to be issued, since
we could see more QPF and the potential of 1 inch of rainfall
within a three hour period with more numerous elevated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

On Saturday, the elongated upper level low pressure located over
western Kansas will move east through the afternoon.  At the
surface, a low pressure center is expected to lift northeast across
the area that afternoon.  The GFS and NAM continue to show just
enough CAPE and shear to allow for strong to severe storms to form
on Saturday.  Some shorter range guidance suggest that storms will
be north of the best instability in the afternoon as a dry slow
works into northeast Kansas, making the severe weather threat
conditional for that afternoon. After sundown, any instability would
move east of the area allowing for any mention of thunderstorms to
be removed from this time frame. Chances for rain decrease Sunday
and Sunday night as the upper low moves northeast of the area.
Surface winds shift out of the north Sunday aiding in cold air
advection and highs topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s. On
Sunday night and Monday, a shortwave in the southern stream flow
across the CONUS could allow for a small chance for showers.  From
here, the forecast is mainly quiet and dry with a warm up trend
through the end of the period. Temperatures should be back up to the
upper 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected for remainder of the morning hours and
early afternoon. Brief periods of MVFR cigs are possible at the
Topeka terminals this morning. An area of showers and
thunderstorms across central KS will slowly push toward MHK by 15Z.
A strong upper level wave will eject later this afternoon and
evening, creating widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
Activity will end near the end of the TAF period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291108
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY.  THIS LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST INTO MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT DEFINITE
POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. POPS START DECREASING TO CHANCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.  A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FA WILL BE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  POPS REMAIN
RATHER LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE
TROUGH IN THE WEST BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
FORECAST IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OCCUR.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND
BASED ON THAT THE SNOW LINE STAYS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH RAIN AND
SNOW PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS
POINT THINK THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. WINDS ARE BREEZY DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE WET SNOW SHOULD NOT BLOW MUCH IF ANY. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS WELL BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE
LOWER 40S EAST.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.  MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE 70S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 503 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK OCCANSIONALLY
DROPPING TO LIFR AS BANDS OF SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONDITIONS TONIGHT BECOME PREVAILING LIFR WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE AT KGLD AND RAIN AT KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A strong upper level trough was approaching the high plains this
morning and will eject across western Kansas in negative tilt
fashion this afternoon and tonight. Surface low pressure over west
Texas is expected to move into southern Kansas by tonight.
Plentiful low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was
available. Elevated CAPE north of the front was resulting in
widespread thunderstorm activity, some of which was close to being
severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Very poor flying conditions will continue through 06z Sat, with
widespread RA, occasional -TSRA, and IFR/LIFR cigs in stratus.
Reduced vis in BR/RA/FG. Strong NE winds will continue as well
through 00z, gusting near 30 kts. Very gradual improvements in
flight categories expected to begin around 06z Sat, as closed low
begins to lift away from SW KS and rain ends. Sfc winds back NW
behind the departing storm system, with MVFR stratus persisting
well into Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  37  59  39 / 100  70  10  10
GCK  43  35  56  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  47  33  56  36 /  80  30  10  10
LBL  49  36  58  38 /  90  30  10  10
HYS  48  38  57  39 /  90  90  30  20
P28  59  43  66  44 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A strong upper level trough was approaching the high plains this
morning and will eject across western Kansas in negative tilt
fashion this afternoon and tonight. Surface low pressure over west
Texas is expected to move into southern Kansas by tonight.
Plentiful low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was
available. Elevated CAPE north of the front was resulting in
widespread thunderstorm activity, some of which was close to being
severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Very poor flying conditions will continue through 06z Sat, with
widespread RA, occasional -TSRA, and IFR/LIFR cigs in stratus.
Reduced vis in BR/RA/FG. Strong NE winds will continue as well
through 00z, gusting near 30 kts. Very gradual improvements in
flight categories expected to begin around 06z Sat, as closed low
begins to lift away from SW KS and rain ends. Sfc winds back NW
behind the departing storm system, with MVFR stratus persisting
well into Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  37  59  39 / 100  70  10  10
GCK  43  35  56  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  47  33  56  36 /  80  30  10  10
LBL  49  36  58  38 /  90  30  10  10
HYS  48  38  57  39 /  90  90  30  20
P28  59  43  66  44 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290846
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY.  THIS LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST INTO MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT DEFINITE
POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. POPS START DECREASING TO CHANCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.  A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FA WILL BE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  POPS REMAIN
RATHER LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE
TROUGH IN THE WEST BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
FORECAST IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OCCUR.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND
BASED ON THAT THE SNOW LINE STAYS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH RAIN AND
SNOW PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS
POINT THINK THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. WINDS ARE BREEZY DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE WET SNOW SHOULD NOT BLOW MUCH IF ANY. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS WELL BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE
LOWER 40S EAST.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.  MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE 70S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL FALL AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

STILL WORKING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN WEST OF KGLD FOR
TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO SURE WHERE HOW FAR EAST IT WILL BE TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290846
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY.  THIS LOW
IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST INTO MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

GOOD DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT DEFINITE
POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. POPS START DECREASING TO CHANCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.  A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FA WILL BE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  POPS REMAIN
RATHER LOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DYNAMICS ARE RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE
TROUGH IN THE WEST BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS
FORECAST IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OCCUR.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND
BASED ON THAT THE SNOW LINE STAYS IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH RAIN AND
SNOW PROGRESSING EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.  WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION BUT AT THIS
POINT THINK THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. WINDS ARE BREEZY DURING THIS TIME BUT
THE WET SNOW SHOULD NOT BLOW MUCH IF ANY. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AS WELL BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY WIDESPREAD
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO THE
LOWER 40S EAST.  TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.  MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE 70S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL FALL AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

STILL WORKING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN WEST OF KGLD FOR
TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO SURE WHERE HOW FAR EAST IT WILL BE TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290828
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
328 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

A strong upper level trough was approaching the high plains this
morning and will eject across western Kansas in negative tilt
fashion this afternoon and tonight. Surface low pressure over west
Texas is expected to move into southern Kansas by tonight.
Plentiful low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico was
available. Elevated CAPE north of the front was resulting in
widespread thunderstorm activity, some of which was close to being
severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Upslope flow and moisture transport above the surface will lead to
LIFR CIGS by 12z and which will persist through the period.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as an upper
level disturbance approaches.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  37  59  39 / 100  70  10  10
GCK  43  35  56  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  43  33  56  36 /  80  30  10  10
LBL  47  36  58  38 /  90  30  10  10
HYS  48  38  57  39 /  90  90  30  20
P28  58  43  66  44 /  90  70  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KTOP 290826
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
326 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

An upper level trough was located across the four corners region
early this morning and will lift northeast into northwest KS by late
Friday night.

Showers this morning were due to weak isentropic lift and a minor
short-wave trough lifting northeast across central KS. These showers
should diminish as they lift northeast across the CWA through the
early morning hours.

This afternoon deeper gulf moisture at 850mb will begin to advect
northward from OK into southern KS. The resulting isentropic lift
will cause showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms to develop
from southwest to northeast across the CWA.

Highs Today will be cool with cloudy skies and a chance for rain
showers. Highs across north central KS may only reach the lower to
mid 50s with highs across the southeast counties reaching the mid
60s.

Tonight...The main H5 trough axis will lift northeast across the TX
PNHDL into northwest OK and then into KS, there will be stronger
ascent combined with isentropic lift for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the CWA. If the instability
increases sufficiently through the evening hours, then there could
be some strong to marginally severe elevated thunderstorms,
generally along and south of I-70. The primary hazard would be penny
to quarter size hail. The NAM model show only 400 to 800 J/KG of
MUCAPE developing across the CWA during the night along with 30 to
40 KTS of effective shear from the LFC up to 6 KM. The synoptic warm
front will lift from southern OK, northward into southeast KS by 9Z
SAT, thus the thunderstorms Friday night will remain elevated.

Total QPF today through tonight will range from near an inch
across north central KS to 0.6" across northeast KS. Most of the
QPF will occur over a 12 hour period, therefore I did not issue a
flood watch. River rises will probably occur and a few rivers may
approach or go over flood stage. However, if the instability is
forecast to increase and we see more elevated thunderstorms
through the night, then a flood watch may need to be issued, since
we could see more QPF and the potential of 1 inch of rainfall
within a three hour period with more numerous elevated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

On Saturday, the elongated upper level low pressure located over
western Kansas will move east through the afternoon.  At the
surface, a low pressure center is expected to lift northeast across
the area that afternoon.  The GFS and NAM continue to show just
enough CAPE and shear to allow for strong to severe storms to form
on Saturday.  Some shorter range guidance suggest that storms will
be north of the best instability in the afternoon as a dry slow
works into northeast Kansas, making the severe weather threat
conditional for that afternoon. After sundown, any instability would
move east of the area allowing for any mention of thunderstorms to
be removed from this time frame. Chances for rain decrease Sunday
and Sunday night as the upper low moves northeast of the area.
Surface winds shift out of the north Sunday aiding in cold air
advection and highs topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s. On
Sunday night and Monday, a shortwave in the southern stream flow
across the CONUS could allow for a small chance for showers.  From
here, the forecast is mainly quiet and dry with a warm up trend
through the end of the period. Temperatures should be back up to the
upper 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR prevails at terminals overnight as dry air seen on the
00Z TOP sounding combats the approaching swath of showers. The
best chance for these showers to reach KMHK is aft 07Z with
chances increasing at KTOP/KFOE aft 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible during the afternoon, otherwise northeasterly winds
this afternoon increase from 10 to 15 kts sustained through the
remainder of the period. Rain coverage also increases after 20Z with
the likelihood of MVFR and IFR conditions occurring through 06Z.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Bowen




000
FXUS63 KTOP 290826
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
326 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

An upper level trough was located across the four corners region
early this morning and will lift northeast into northwest KS by late
Friday night.

Showers this morning were due to weak isentropic lift and a minor
short-wave trough lifting northeast across central KS. These showers
should diminish as they lift northeast across the CWA through the
early morning hours.

This afternoon deeper gulf moisture at 850mb will begin to advect
northward from OK into southern KS. The resulting isentropic lift
will cause showers and isolated elevated thunderstorms to develop
from southwest to northeast across the CWA.

Highs Today will be cool with cloudy skies and a chance for rain
showers. Highs across north central KS may only reach the lower to
mid 50s with highs across the southeast counties reaching the mid
60s.

Tonight...The main H5 trough axis will lift northeast across the TX
PNHDL into northwest OK and then into KS, there will be stronger
ascent combined with isentropic lift for widespread showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the CWA. If the instability
increases sufficiently through the evening hours, then there could
be some strong to marginally severe elevated thunderstorms,
generally along and south of I-70. The primary hazard would be penny
to quarter size hail. The NAM model show only 400 to 800 J/KG of
MUCAPE developing across the CWA during the night along with 30 to
40 KTS of effective shear from the LFC up to 6 KM. The synoptic warm
front will lift from southern OK, northward into southeast KS by 9Z
SAT, thus the thunderstorms Friday night will remain elevated.

Total QPF today through tonight will range from near an inch
across north central KS to 0.6" across northeast KS. Most of the
QPF will occur over a 12 hour period, therefore I did not issue a
flood watch. River rises will probably occur and a few rivers may
approach or go over flood stage. However, if the instability is
forecast to increase and we see more elevated thunderstorms
through the night, then a flood watch may need to be issued, since
we could see more QPF and the potential of 1 inch of rainfall
within a three hour period with more numerous elevated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

On Saturday, the elongated upper level low pressure located over
western Kansas will move east through the afternoon.  At the
surface, a low pressure center is expected to lift northeast across
the area that afternoon.  The GFS and NAM continue to show just
enough CAPE and shear to allow for strong to severe storms to form
on Saturday.  Some shorter range guidance suggest that storms will
be north of the best instability in the afternoon as a dry slow
works into northeast Kansas, making the severe weather threat
conditional for that afternoon. After sundown, any instability would
move east of the area allowing for any mention of thunderstorms to
be removed from this time frame. Chances for rain decrease Sunday
and Sunday night as the upper low moves northeast of the area.
Surface winds shift out of the north Sunday aiding in cold air
advection and highs topping out in the upper 50s and low 60s. On
Sunday night and Monday, a shortwave in the southern stream flow
across the CONUS could allow for a small chance for showers.  From
here, the forecast is mainly quiet and dry with a warm up trend
through the end of the period. Temperatures should be back up to the
upper 70s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR prevails at terminals overnight as dry air seen on the
00Z TOP sounding combats the approaching swath of showers. The
best chance for these showers to reach KMHK is aft 07Z with
chances increasing at KTOP/KFOE aft 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible during the afternoon, otherwise northeasterly winds
this afternoon increase from 10 to 15 kts sustained through the
remainder of the period. Rain coverage also increases after 20Z with
the likelihood of MVFR and IFR conditions occurring through 06Z.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Bowen




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

TRYING TO DETERMINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING TONIGHT. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS WERE INITIALLY
CONSIDERED FOR WHERE THE SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR...BUT THIS INCLUDED
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. CONFINING SNOWFALL TO DEW POINTS OF 33 DEGREES OR LESS
SEEMED MORE REASONABLE SINCE THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE LAST
SNOWFALL.

THE ENVIRONMENT OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL HAVE NEAR ZERO
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WITH VERY DEEP STRONG LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
ZONE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE INCH PER HOUR RANGE. HOWEVER THE WARM GROUND SHOULD CAUSE
THE ROADWAYS TO MELT A DECENT AMOUNT OF THE SNOWFALL. FAR WESTERN
KIT CARSON COULD HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO THE PROLONGED SNOWFALL ON TOP OF THE FEW HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATER TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN TOWARD THE STATE LINE AS DEW POINTS WARM TO
CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES. THE SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOWER DEW POINTS MOVE EAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

ONE WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
PAST FEW HOURS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS
OF 10 MPH OR LESS.

FOR TONIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES INTO THE HALF INCH (WEST)
TO NEAR ONE INCH (EAST) RANGE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA FROM SOUTHERN UTAH. PLENTY OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. AM EXPECTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10-0.15 INCHES FROM TRENTON TO
NORTON NORTH WITH UP TO A HALF INCH ELSEWHERE. AROUND/AN HOUR BEFORE
SUNRISE 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 1C ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF
KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES OF COLORADO. THIS COULD/SHOULD PRODUCE
A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO
ARE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...MID 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH RANGE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN TO PRODUCE A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 1C
OR SO SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING ZERO DEGREE 850MB TEMPS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW LINE EDGES A BIT FURTHER EAST REACHING PERHAPS A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND AND CHEYENNE WELLS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SNOW
IS IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF YUMA AND WEST/NORTHWEST
CORNER OF KIT CARSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
0.70-0.80 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE 70S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL FALL AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

STILL WORKING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN WEST OF KGLD FOR
TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO SURE WHERE HOW FAR EAST IT WILL BE TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KICT 290759
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AND LINGER DURING THE DAY.
THIS CONVECTION COULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS...AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. WE STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO
SPREAD INTO KANSAS TODAY...AND LOOKS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES OUT INTO
THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF DECENT WIND SHEAR/ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ROTATES ACROSS KANSAS...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY/TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THEREAFTER WITH LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOWING A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS PERIOD IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS SHOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS OF -RA WL CONT TO SPREAD NE ACRS PRIMARILY SC KS THE REST OF
THE NGT. IN MOST AREAS VSBYS WOULD REMAIN VFR...ALTHO 3-5SM VSBYS
WOULD BE PSBL WHERE MODERATE RA OCCURS. CIGS ACRS ALL AREAS WOULD
QUICKLY DROP INTO "LOW-END" MVFR COUNTRY W/ CNTRL & SC KS TERMINALS
LKLY TO DROP INTO THIS CATEGORY ~09Z. IFR CIGS ARE LKLY AT KGBD &
KRSL ~12Z. TS WOULD BE NO GREATER THAN ISOLD & AS SUCH TSRA HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  48  68  45 /  80  80  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  10
NEWTON          63  48  67  45 /  80  80  20  10
ELDORADO        65  52  69  46 /  80  80  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  50  70  46 /  80  80  10  10
RUSSELL         51  41  59  41 /  90  90  40  20
GREAT BEND      52  42  61  41 /  80  80  20  20
SALINA          57  45  65  44 /  80  80  40  20
MCPHERSON       59  46  65  44 /  80  80  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  54  73  48 /  80  80  20  10
CHANUTE         67  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  57  70  48 /  80  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    68  56  72  48 /  80  80  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...EPS




000
FXUS63 KDDC 290550
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late today near a
surface boundary that will extend from southeast Colorado into the
Panhandle of Texas. Once developed these storms will spread
northeast into southwest Kansas early this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are then expected to continue and even expand across
western and south central Kansas during the overnight hours as
850mb warm air advection improves with 700mb to 500mb lapse rates
of 7 to 8C/km.

Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms can be expected during
the day on Friday as a 400mb potential vorticity anomaly,
associated with an upper level jet streak. approaches from the
southwest. Based on the expected cloud cover and widespread
precipitation on Friday will continue to favor highs only in the
upper 40s to lower 50s for all but south central Kansas. In south
central Kansas will trend towards or even undercut the coolest
guidance for highs.

Preciptable water Friday afternoon from the GFS and NAM is
forecast to be around 1 inch so although severe weather is not
anticipated at this time there will be a chance for moderate or
even a period of heavy rainfall with a few of these storms as the
upper level dynamics improve, especially across north central and
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Late Friday night/early Saturday widespread showers and
thunderstorms will begin to taper off from southwest to northeast
as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. A surface ridge
axis, cooler air, and low clouds will then begin to move into
southwest Kansas. Given the cooling expected in the 0 to 0.5km
level from the NAM and GFS it does appears lows in the 30s will be
likely for most of western Kansas by early Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be in the 40 to near 45 degree range in south
central Kansas.

A brief break in the precipitation will then develop during the
day on Saturday as one upper level system moves across Nebraska
and the next upper level system begins to dig into the southwest
United States. As this next system approaches southwest Kansas
late Sunday into early next week there will be another chance for
widespread precipitation.

As for temperatures....for Saturday did favor highs climbing back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s given that southwest Kansas has the
potential for more afternoon sun, at least early. Highs only in
the 50s are then expected from Sunday through early next week
given that a cool dome of high pressure at the surface is forecast
to settle into the Central Plains along the return of clouds and
precipitation. Lows will be mainly in the 30s.

By Tuesday this next round of precipitation is expected to be
exiting western Kansas so may need to monitor how quickly clouds
will exit Tuesday night. Lows falling back to near 30 for portions
of western Kansas will be possible if skies do clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Upslope flow and moisture transport above the surface will lead to
LIFR CIGS by 12z and which will persist through the period.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as an upper
level disturbance approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  49  37  60 /  90  90  70  10
GCK  43  44  35  58 / 100  90  60  10
EHA  43  45  34  59 /  80  80  30   0
LBL  46  48  37  61 /  80  80  40   0
HYS  42  48  40  56 /  80  90  80  20
P28  49  58  47  68 /  80  90  80   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KICT 290506
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1206 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS OF SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING NE FROM TX
& OK PANHANDLES ACROSS NW OK TO SW KS. AT 9 PM CDT THE NE LEADING
EDGE HAD REACHED PRATT...SW KINGMAN & THE BARBER/HARPER CO LINE.
THE MODEST CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 300-315K LAYER BEING INDUCED BY A MID-UPPER DECK LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SE UT/NE AZ BORDER THAT IS DRIFTING S-L-O-W-L-Y
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. RAINFALLS IN AREAS W OF I-35/I-135 WILL NOT
EXCEED 0.10 INCH THRU MID-NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS). INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MARGINAL WITH
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE-TILT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIFT AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40 OR SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH STORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM-WRF MODELS...WITH VERY HIGH CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR OF 45-70
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE OF 1 TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...ALTHOUGH LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL >2 INCH DIAMETER VERY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) OF
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MAINLY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET. COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.

EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SOME POSSIBILITY A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT EJECTS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. COOLER
THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS OF -RA WL CONT TO SPREAD NE ACRS PRIMARILY SC KS THE REST OF
THE NGT. IN MOST AREAS VSBYS WOULD REMAIN VFR...ALTHO 3-5SM VSBYS
WOULD BE PSBL WHERE MODERATE RA OCCURS. CIGS ACRS ALL AREAS WOULD
QUICKLY DROP INTO "LOW-END" MVFR COUNTRY W/ CNTRL & SC KS TERMINALS
LKLY TO DROP INTO THIS CATEGORY ~09Z. IFR CIGS ARE LKLY AT KGBD &
KRSL ~12Z. TS WOULD BE NO GREATER THAN ISOLD & AS SUCH TSRA HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  67  53  71 /  50  80  80  10
HUTCHINSON      50  62  49  67 /  80  80  80  20
NEWTON          50  65  53  68 /  60  70  80  20
ELDORADO        52  67  54  70 /  30  70  80  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  70  54  73 /  40  80  80  10
RUSSELL         44  54  43  61 /  70  80  90  40
GREAT BEND      45  57  44  63 /  80  80  80  20
SALINA          46  60  50  66 /  80  70  80  40
MCPHERSON       49  62  50  66 /  80  70  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     53  71  59  75 /  30  70  80  20
CHANUTE         51  69  59  72 /  20  50  80  30
IOLA            50  68  59  72 /  20  50  80  30
PARSONS-KPPF    53  70  59  74 /  20  60  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS




000
FXUS63 KICT 290506
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1206 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS OF SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING NE FROM TX
& OK PANHANDLES ACROSS NW OK TO SW KS. AT 9 PM CDT THE NE LEADING
EDGE HAD REACHED PRATT...SW KINGMAN & THE BARBER/HARPER CO LINE.
THE MODEST CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 300-315K LAYER BEING INDUCED BY A MID-UPPER DECK LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SE UT/NE AZ BORDER THAT IS DRIFTING S-L-O-W-L-Y
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. RAINFALLS IN AREAS W OF I-35/I-135 WILL NOT
EXCEED 0.10 INCH THRU MID-NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS). INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MARGINAL WITH
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE-TILT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIFT AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40 OR SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH STORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM-WRF MODELS...WITH VERY HIGH CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR OF 45-70
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE OF 1 TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...ALTHOUGH LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL >2 INCH DIAMETER VERY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) OF
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MAINLY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET. COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.

EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SOME POSSIBILITY A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT EJECTS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. COOLER
THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS OF -RA WL CONT TO SPREAD NE ACRS PRIMARILY SC KS THE REST OF
THE NGT. IN MOST AREAS VSBYS WOULD REMAIN VFR...ALTHO 3-5SM VSBYS
WOULD BE PSBL WHERE MODERATE RA OCCURS. CIGS ACRS ALL AREAS WOULD
QUICKLY DROP INTO "LOW-END" MVFR COUNTRY W/ CNTRL & SC KS TERMINALS
LKLY TO DROP INTO THIS CATEGORY ~09Z. IFR CIGS ARE LKLY AT KGBD &
KRSL ~12Z. TS WOULD BE NO GREATER THAN ISOLD & AS SUCH TSRA HAS
BEEN LEFT OUT OF ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  67  53  71 /  50  80  80  10
HUTCHINSON      50  62  49  67 /  80  80  80  20
NEWTON          50  65  53  68 /  60  70  80  20
ELDORADO        52  67  54  70 /  30  70  80  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  70  54  73 /  40  80  80  10
RUSSELL         44  54  43  61 /  70  80  90  40
GREAT BEND      45  57  44  63 /  80  80  80  20
SALINA          46  60  50  66 /  80  70  80  40
MCPHERSON       49  62  50  66 /  80  70  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     53  71  59  75 /  30  70  80  20
CHANUTE         51  69  59  72 /  20  50  80  30
IOLA            50  68  59  72 /  20  50  80  30
PARSONS-KPPF    53  70  59  74 /  20  60  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 290443
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

TRYING TO DETERMINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING TONIGHT. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS WERE INITIALLY
CONSIDERED FOR WHERE THE SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR...BUT THIS INCLUDED
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. CONFINING SNOWFALL TO DEW POINTS OF 33 DEGREES OR LESS
SEEMED MORE REASONABLE SINCE THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE LAST
SNOWFALL.

THE ENVIRONMENT OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL HAVE NEAR ZERO
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WITH VERY DEEP STRONG LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
ZONE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE INCH PER HOUR RANGE. HOWEVER THE WARM GROUND SHOULD CAUSE
THE ROADWAYS TO MELT A DECENT AMOUNT OF THE SNOWFALL. FAR WESTERN
KIT CARSON COULD HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO THE PROLONGED SNOWFALL ON TOP OF THE FEW HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATER TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN TOWARD THE STATE LINE AS DEW POINTS WARM TO
CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES. THE SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOWER DEW POINTS MOVE EAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

ONE WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
PAST FEW HOURS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS
OF 10 MPH OR LESS.

FOR TONIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES INTO THE HALF INCH (WEST)
TO NEAR ONE INCH (EAST) RANGE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA FROM SOUTHERN UTAH. PLENTY OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. AM EXPECTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10-0.15 INCHES FROM TRENTON TO
NORTON NORTH WITH UP TO A HALF INCH ELSEWHERE. AROUND/AN HOUR BEFORE
SUNRISE 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 1C ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF
KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES OF COLORADO. THIS COULD/SHOULD PRODUCE
A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO
ARE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...MID 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH RANGE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN TO PRODUCE A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 1C
OR SO SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING ZERO DEGREE 850MB TEMPS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW LINE EDGES A BIT FURTHER EAST REACHING PERHAPS A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND AND CHEYENNE WELLS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SNOW
IS IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF YUMA AND WEST/NORTHWEST
CORNER OF KIT CARSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
0.70-0.80 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS. RAW MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES TO START THERE WILL LIKELY
BE CONSIDERABLE MELTING WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON SNOW AMOUNTS.
SO KEPT TOTAL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND SUB-ADVISORY. THE AREA WHICH
WOULD POSSIBLY RECEIVE A BIT MORE IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD
BE THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR FROM YUMA TO WRAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR
EAST AS HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN NEBRASKA.

THE UPPER LOW WILL WOBBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
WRAPAROUND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE 40S NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE WHILE OPTIMISTICALLY REACHING THE LOWER 50S SOUTH
WHERE RAIN WILL END EARLIEST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW ON SUNDAY
WITH PERHAPS A BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. QPF WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL FALL AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

STILL WORKING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN WEST OF KGLD FOR
TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO SURE WHERE HOW FAR EAST IT WILL BE TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 290442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1142 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

Clouds have held their ground across the northeastern counties as
cooler high pressure continues to move southeast into the Central
Plains.  Highs range from the 50s north to low 60s in our southern
counties so far.  Band of sprinkles or light rain has moved across
parts of Central Kansas this afternoon and should continue to move
north and dissipate over the next few hours.

Next chance for rain on a slow approach from the southwest and will
have cooler more stable air in place over our area to contend with.
Kept most areas dry until after midnight, then spread showers
eastward into sunrise.  Able to get some weak instability in the
southern counties that makes its way eastward into the afternoon,
but only enough to add isolated T at this time.  Cool lows tonight
in the 40s likely followed by cooler highs if clouds and rain hang
around for the afternoon. Went slightly cooler than guidance with
highs in the middle 50s northwest to low/mid 60s in the southeast
counties.  Points along the Neosho, Marais de Cygnes and the
Cottonwood river remain in or near flood stage, see related
hydrology products for details.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

Friday night through the weekend continues to look like an active
weather period in terms of multiple chances for precipitation.
Another strong, negatively-tilted trough will follow a track quite
similar to the system earlier this week. As opposed to the early
week system, local instability is not likely to be impressive owing
to widespread convective overturning and lesser boundary layer
moisture. That said, there will be rain and thunderstorms with the
best chance appearing to come Friday evening into early Saturday
morning as a strong vort max crosses northeast KS. Strong large-
scale vertical motion and modest instability in the area, along with
a deep moist airmass will contribute to periods of moderate to
perhaps heavy rainfall. However, the convective rain rates should
not be nearly as impressive as just a few days ago as the
instability will be much weaker and the system itself should be
fairly progressive from SW to NE. All told, would expect to see a
widespread 0.50" to 2" rainfall through Saturday morning. At the
current time, the flood threat seems to exist but does not warrant a
watch at this point due to the likelihood for mainly moderate rain
rates and only localized heavy amounts. A watch could be warranted
in the future if there is higher confidence in the heaviest precip
amounts falling over the same areas that received the heaviest rain
on Tuesday where stream flow remains elevated.

Saturday presents a bit of an interesting forecast as the GFS and
NAM build instability into eastern KS with a local surface low in
northeast KS and local low level convergence. This may allow for a
localized strong to severe weather threat to develop by the
afternoon, but there is much uncertainty regarding whether this will
in fact develop or not. For now, the severe potential is conditional
upon the location of the front/convergence actually being in the
local area, and if the threat develops it would likely be focused on
hail as the primary hazard. Shower chance linger into Saturday night
and Sunday, mainly in northern KS closer to the upper low.
Temperatures will cool quite a bit by Sunday with a high only in the
50s for much of the area but overnight clouds should keep the
diurnal difference to a minimum with lows in the 40s.

For the extended period from Monday through Thursday for the
upcoming week, a quiet and mainly dry period is expected to set up
over the Central Plains.  With mean Westerly flow regime off to the
north over Canada, and larger scale ridge set up over the Western
CONUS, perhaps the only factor that could cause very light precip
into Monday and Monday night is the passage of very broad positively
tilted trough axis extending over the area from the Great Lakes
region.  Did keep shower chances very slight for Monday.  Almost
completely eliminated these chances all together due to little lift,
low dewpoints and fairly dry sounding profiles with weak unorganized
wind fields but did keep along the points mainly west and south of
the Topeka vicinity for now. Ridging building over the Plains into
Tuesday and Wednesday should lead to a quiet weather pattern for the
work week ahead thereafter.

Meanwhile, temps slowly climb during the week from the mid 60s on
Monday into the mid 70s by Thursday.  Lows look to range from the
mid 40s Monday to the low 50s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR prevails at terminals overnight as dry air seen on the
00Z TOP sounding combats the approaching swath of showers. The
best chance for these showers to reach KMHK is aft 07Z with
chances increasing at KTOP/KFOE aft 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible during the afternoon, otherwise northeasterly winds
this afternoon increase from 10 to 15 kts sustained through the
remainder of the period. Rain coverage also increases after 20Z with
the likelihood of MVFR and IFR conditions occurring through 06Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch/Drake
AVIATION...Bowen




000
FXUS63 KICT 290227
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
927 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS OF SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING NE FROM TX
& OK PANHANDLES ACROSS NW OK TO SW KS. AT 9 PM CDT THE NE LEADING
EDGE HAD REACHED PRATT...SW KINGMAN & THE BARBER/HARPER CO LINE.
THE MODEST CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 300-315K LAYER BEING INDUCED BY A MID-UPPER DECK LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SE UT/NE AZ BORDER THAT IS DRIFTING S-L-O-W-L-Y
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. RAINFALLS IN AREAS W OF I-35/I-135 WILL NOT
EXCEED 0.10 INCH THRU MID-NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS). INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MARGINAL WITH
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE-TILT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIFT AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40 OR SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH STORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM-WRF MODELS...WITH VERY HIGH CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR OF 45-70
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE OF 1 TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...ALTHOUGH LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL >2 INCH DIAMETER VERY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) OF
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MAINLY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET. COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.

EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SOME POSSIBILITY A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT EJECTS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. COOLER
THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ALL TERMINALS WL RMN VFR TIL 06-09Z WHEN CIGS AT KGBD & KRSL WOULD
QUICKLY DROP TO "LOW-END" MVFR AS AREAS OF RA & EMBEDDED TSRA MOVE
INTO THESE AREAS. VSBYS FM 4-5SM ARE LKLY AT BOTH TERMINALS FM 08Z
ONWARD. LOW-END MVFR CIGS ARE NOT XPCTD TO REACH KHUT & KICT UNTIL
~12Z. WINDS ACRS CNTRL & SC KS THAT ARE ~10KTS WL SLOWLY INCR LATE
THIS EVE TO A SUSTAINED 13-17KTS WITH SPEEDS ACRS SE KS INCRG MUCH
QUICKER FROM LGT NELY TO ~13Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  67  53  71 /  40  80  80  10
HUTCHINSON      50  62  49  67 /  60  80  80  20
NEWTON          50  65  53  68 /  40  70  80  20
ELDORADO        52  67  54  70 /  30  70  80  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  70  54  73 /  40  80  80  10
RUSSELL         44  54  43  61 /  70  80  90  40
GREAT BEND      45  57  44  63 /  80  80  80  20
SALINA          46  60  50  66 /  50  70  80  40
MCPHERSON       49  62  50  66 /  50  70  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     53  71  59  75 /  30  70  80  20
CHANUTE         51  69  59  72 /  20  50  80  30
IOLA            50  68  59  72 /  30  50  80  30
PARSONS-KPPF    53  70  59  74 /  20  60  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS




000
FXUS63 KICT 290227
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
927 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS OF SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING NE FROM TX
& OK PANHANDLES ACROSS NW OK TO SW KS. AT 9 PM CDT THE NE LEADING
EDGE HAD REACHED PRATT...SW KINGMAN & THE BARBER/HARPER CO LINE.
THE MODEST CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE 300-315K LAYER BEING INDUCED BY A MID-UPPER DECK LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SE UT/NE AZ BORDER THAT IS DRIFTING S-L-O-W-L-Y
TOWARD THE 4 CORNERS. RAINFALLS IN AREAS W OF I-35/I-135 WILL NOT
EXCEED 0.10 INCH THRU MID-NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 300-305K LAYER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS). INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE MARGINAL WITH
LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE-TILT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH MAY LIFT AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40 OR SLIGHT FURTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. THE HIGH STORM
CHANCES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCLUDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO FAR
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS. MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE
PROGGED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...USING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM-WRF MODELS...WITH VERY HIGH CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR OF 45-70
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE OF 1 TO
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...ALTHOUGH LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD PRODUCE
VERY LARGE HAIL >2 INCH DIAMETER VERY CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR
EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) OF
SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MAINLY WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER TROUGH/MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET. COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY.

EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SOME POSSIBILITY A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AS IT EJECTS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS
FEATURE COULD PRODUCE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. COOLER
THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

ALL TERMINALS WL RMN VFR TIL 06-09Z WHEN CIGS AT KGBD & KRSL WOULD
QUICKLY DROP TO "LOW-END" MVFR AS AREAS OF RA & EMBEDDED TSRA MOVE
INTO THESE AREAS. VSBYS FM 4-5SM ARE LKLY AT BOTH TERMINALS FM 08Z
ONWARD. LOW-END MVFR CIGS ARE NOT XPCTD TO REACH KHUT & KICT UNTIL
~12Z. WINDS ACRS CNTRL & SC KS THAT ARE ~10KTS WL SLOWLY INCR LATE
THIS EVE TO A SUSTAINED 13-17KTS WITH SPEEDS ACRS SE KS INCRG MUCH
QUICKER FROM LGT NELY TO ~13Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  67  53  71 /  40  80  80  10
HUTCHINSON      50  62  49  67 /  60  80  80  20
NEWTON          50  65  53  68 /  40  70  80  20
ELDORADO        52  67  54  70 /  30  70  80  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  70  54  73 /  40  80  80  10
RUSSELL         44  54  43  61 /  70  80  90  40
GREAT BEND      45  57  44  63 /  80  80  80  20
SALINA          46  60  50  66 /  50  70  80  40
MCPHERSON       49  62  50  66 /  50  70  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     53  71  59  75 /  30  70  80  20
CHANUTE         51  69  59  72 /  20  50  80  30
IOLA            50  68  59  72 /  30  50  80  30
PARSONS-KPPF    53  70  59  74 /  20  60  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities