[top]
000
FXUS63 KGLD 232105
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ON THE
LARGER SCALE WE HAVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING THE PLAINS AND
MOVING EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY ARE LIMITING HIGH
TEMPS...THOUGH AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LIME FROM WRAY COLORADO TO GOVE
KANSAS ARE EXPERIENCING SOME SUNSHINE WHICH MAY PUSH THEM UP A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT...UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT. AM MORE CONFIDENT IN FOG THIS EVENING THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS
COUNTIES. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
TOMORROW...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DEVELOPS IN
EASTERN COLORADO. FOG AND CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH ALONG THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. IN
THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK TROUGH TO
FORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A
CAP IN PLACE...BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
KANSAS/NEBRASKA COUNTIES. STORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND 21Z AND LAST INTO
THE EVENING...WITH STORM MOTIONS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 20-25
MPH. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG AND GREATER WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY TO PARCELS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LOW LEVELS WINDS LOOK ESPECIALLY ATTRACTIVE...WITH A COMBINATION
OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FROM 0-3KM AGL OF AROUND 30 KTS
ALONE. LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS ALSO DECENT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE A SIZABLE
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREAD...WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRONG WINDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. LCL HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 1KM...SO WHILE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ON
FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY HEADS
EAST. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF SHOULD HANG AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SOME FOG TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S.
ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SURFACE BASED
CAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -9...850-500 MB
LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9 C/KM...BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS...FAVORABLE
VEERING OF THE WINDS AND A WEAKER CAP THAN ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE EAST
OR NORTHEAST. EASTERN COLORADO MAY MISS OUT AS THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. DEWPOINTS...AND
THUS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WILL PLUMMET BEHIND THE ADVANCING
DRYLINE. IF WINDS ARE GUSTY BEHIND THE DRYLINE...FIRE WEATHER WOULD
BECOME A CONCERN...MAINLY ACROSS EAST COLORADO. THIS WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON FUELS AND HOW MUCH RAIN IS RECEIVED ON FRIDAY.
WITH A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS ON TUESDAY. ALL MODELS
SHOW THAT A LARGER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS ENERGY IS THE MAIN DIFFERENCE. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS IT WILL
BECOME A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND SWING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WOULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS THIS ENERGY WILL BECOME MORE OF A
CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS THEN
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE EUROPEAN WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
BETTER RAINS AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. EITHER WAY...THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME OF BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER...MUCH NEEDED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. THIS AFTERNOON LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN. LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF GLD AND MCK LATE THIS MORNING
BUT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT GUSTING TO 20KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS TO IFR LEVELS. FOG
WILL LIFT EARLY TOMORROW BUT THE IFR CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JJM
[top]
000
FXUS63 KDDC 232059
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THIS MORNING`S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS BEFORE ANGLING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WITH A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS INVADING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE
LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
REDEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE PRATT/MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH MIST, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TURBULENT
MIXING OVERNIGHT TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM BECOMING AN ISSUE. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S AROUND HAYS TO NEAR 60 AT LIBERAL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ONGOING GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND OUT TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE FORMING JUST WEST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT TO SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND
2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH WITH LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, WITH THE ECMWF MORE CLOSED OFF AND FURTHER SOUTH AND THE
GEM/GFS/UKMET MORE PROGRESSIVE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE AND MARGINAL
SHEAR PROFILE. CHANCES FOR TORNADOES AND GIANT HAIL LOOK FAIRLY LOW
DUE TO EXPECTED HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND FAIRLY WEAK WINDS IN
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE. AFTER MONDAY, THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE),
BUT ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE ECMWF WOULD
RESULT IN A MOIST AXIS THAT IS FURTHER WEST, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS (POSSIBLY SEVERE) IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S, WITH THE WARMEST READINGS
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHEST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS (UPPER 60S) EACH MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS IN
THAT AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE MOIST AXIS ENDS UP BEING FURTHER WEST,
THEN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
COLORADO BORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD MIX OUT INTO A BROKEN VF/MVFR CUMULUS DECK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LOWER
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORIES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 77 63 90 / 40 30 30 20
GCK 57 81 63 92 / 40 20 30 30
EHA 58 85 61 92 / 30 30 30 30
LBL 60 83 64 92 / 30 20 30 30
HYS 54 73 62 91 / 40 40 30 20
P28 55 75 65 87 / 40 40 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD
000
FXUS63 KDDC 232056
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THIS MORNING`S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WAS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND RESULTED IN SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS BEFORE ANGLING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AND TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
WITH A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS INVADING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE
LOWER LEVELS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS. SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
REDEVELOPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE PRATT/MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING UP OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH MIST, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TURBULENT
MIXING OVERNIGHT TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM BECOMING AN ISSUE. WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S AROUND HAYS TO NEAR 60 AT LIBERAL.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE ONGOING GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW AND OUT TOWARD THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SHOWS THE WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS WITH A DRYLINE FORMING JUST WEST OF THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT TO SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM IS SHOWING AROUND
2000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH WITH LARGE HAIL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I295-I305
ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY END EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT BY LATE DAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR A DEEPENING
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED LATE DAY MUCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 30KTS
SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ALL THE MODELS THIS
MORNING DO AGREE THAT NORTH OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS
LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF THIS WARM FRONT NEAR 90 DEGREES HIGHS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE/DRYLINE REMAINS IN OR NEAR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS ANY SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGESTING HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S
BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. MODELS
THIS MORNING DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHICH ON WILL BE MORE CORRECT.
AS A RESULT WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND CREXTENDFCST_INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD MIX OUT INTO A BROKEN VF/MVFR CUMULUS DECK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LOWER
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORIES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 56 77 63 90 / 40 30 30 20
GCK 57 81 63 92 / 40 20 30 30
EHA 58 85 61 92 / 30 30 30 30
LBL 60 83 64 92 / 30 20 30 30
HYS 54 73 62 91 / 40 40 30 20
P28 55 75 65 87 / 40 40 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD
[top]
000
FXUS63 KTOP 232043
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
343 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW THAT IMPACTED THE REGION THIS PAST WEEKEND
HAS PROGRESSED EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STILL STRETCHED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS PRESENT NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY TO KEEP MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS UNDER CLOUD COVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
SOME SCATTERING OUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER BY MID AFTERNOON...WHICH
ALLOWED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS SPILLED SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT ANOTHER COOLER NIGHT ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE OVER
THE UPCOMING DAYS...THE FIRST LOOKING TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SHORTWAVE ALSO
LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING SOUTHWARD FROM
A SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF KANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING HOW MUCH
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE CHANCE POPS
PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR FAR EASTERN KANSAS. COULD START
SEEING ANY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS SHIFT INTO
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS A BIT
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE RIDGE. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE ONCE
AGAIN...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKING TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE MID AND LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN
REGARDING SPECIFIC DETAILS OF LOCATION AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENT IN SOME OF THE GENERAL FEATURES AS WELL AS
A TEMPERATURE PATTERN.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL ACTUALLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A RATHER SHARP RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
KANSAS WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL TRANSLATE OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROUGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING NUMEROUS CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE WITH
THIS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN INTERPRETING WHICH OF THESE IMPULSES
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS...AS WELL AS ANY PERIODS DURING WHICH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MARKEDLY INCREASES COINCIDENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH CLOUD COVER
LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...AND A RATHER MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
IN TERMS OF SPECIFICS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE ENOUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO
SUPPORT AN MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS MAY IMPACT MAINLY NORTHEAST KANSAS
ON SATURDAY MORNING...BUT PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY ARE EXPECTED TO
PLACE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF ANY OUTFLOW WILL FOCUS ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INITIALLY TO THAT LOCATION AND REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH INHIBITION MINIMIZED AND
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW IF
IT DOES INDEED EXIST. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILE IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG ALTHOUGH IT MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME BRIEF STORM
ORGANIZATION BEFORE COLD POOLS INTERACT. SATURDAY NIGHT CONVECTION
MAY ALSO TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY FOR LATE NIGHT
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD IT ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS. UPPER RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH ANY SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DEPENDING
UPON A CAP BREAK. INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ON SUNDAY AND
THE DEEP SHEAR PROFILE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN
SATURDAY...AND COULD SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD GIVEN MODERATE TO HIGH PWAT VALUES AND POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO FOCUS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFICS IS JUST TOO
GREAT TO GET BOGGED DOWN IN ANY DETAILS. OPERATIONAL MODELS MAINTAIN
THE BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN BUT DIVERGE REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE EJECTION DATE OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW ITSELF.
WHENEVER THE HEART OF THIS SYSTEM DOES ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
WOULD EXPECT A GREATER POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH INCREASED
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND PERHAPS A MORE ORGANIZED FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT.
HAVE MAINTAINED SEVERAL RATHER SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MUCH OF THE
AREA COULD BE DRY UNTIL THE MAIN TROUGH APPROACHES...IT ALL REALLY
DEPENDS ON WHETHER CAP STRENGTH CAN OUTLAST WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
STRENGTH ON A DAY TO DAY BASIS. EVEN AFTER THE MAIN TROUGH CROSSES
THE PLAINS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE AND A NEW LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO LOW-END VFR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONE ISSUE OF UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE
TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THIS CLOUD COVER SO
HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF KTOP/KFOE TAFS ATTM...BUT THERE IS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OUT TOWARD KMHK SO HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A
MENTION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...HENNECKE
[top]
000
FXUS63 KICT 232024
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TONIGHT - FRIDAY:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR/AHEAD OF A WEAK PV ANOMALY WITH YET ANOTHER
WEAK ANOMALY MOVING IN UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BEYOND THIS EVENING...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND
WEST AND TRACT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE AREA. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THIS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE
EXPANDED POPS IN THIS MANNER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE ACTIVITY
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER
FOR FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY...BUT THINK WHERE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...AND IN THE WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
SATURDAY - MEMORIAL DAY:
THERE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING THERE TO BE LONG PERIODS OF
RAIN...OR FOR IT TO RAIN ALL WEEKEND. THE WARM FRONT WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD.
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ALLOWING FOR PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...THROUGHOUT THE PERIODS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS DIFFICULT WITH THE LACKING SHEAR. BUT WITH COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
KANSAS AND IMPACT THE AREA. DIFFICULT TO PIN ONE DAY DOWN OVER
ANOTHER FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH MULTIPLE RIPPLES
MOVING IN BENEATH THE RIDGE...SO STAY TUNED...ESPECIALLY FOR ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SOME SMALL HAIL AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY...AND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE 80S AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.
BILLINGS
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
TUESDAY - THURSDAY:
DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MAGNIFY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE LATEST 12Z/23RD GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE
TROUGH THAT IS SITTING OUT WEST...EASTWARD. THIS COULD BRING A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...BUT AS MUCH AS THE
GFS GIVES THIS SOLUTION...THE LATEST 12Z/23RD ECMWF IS DIFFERENT.
IT DIGS THE TROUGH SOUTH OVER BAJA AND IS MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE. THIS PUSHES ANY STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER INTO THE WEEK. REGARDLESS THIS IS A
PERIOD TO WATCH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER IS LOW...SO STAY TUNED.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FESTER A COUPLE HOURS LONGER UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY FUEL CONVECTION THAT
COULD IMPACT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA COULD ALSO BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY MORNING.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 74 64 85 / 30 40 30 20
HUTCHINSON 56 75 65 85 / 30 40 30 20
NEWTON 55 72 63 84 / 30 40 30 20
ELDORADO 55 74 62 83 / 20 40 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 57 75 63 83 / 50 30 30 20
RUSSELL 54 75 64 89 / 40 40 30 20
GREAT BEND 56 76 65 87 / 50 40 30 20
SALINA 52 73 64 88 / 30 40 30 30
MCPHERSON 54 74 64 86 / 30 40 30 20
COFFEYVILLE 56 75 60 83 / 20 20 20 20
CHANUTE 53 73 59 82 / 20 20 20 20
IOLA 53 72 59 82 / 20 20 20 30
PARSONS-KPPF 55 74 60 82 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 231749
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1149 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED THE FORECASTS FOR RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. BASICALLY
CLEARED RAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PART OF AREA...BUT KEPT MORNING
SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE EAST. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE STABLE SO
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
TODAY...A WEAK SHORT/WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
THROUGH 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE...CANNOT IGNORE THE RADAR WHICH
DEPICTS SHOWERS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO SHOWS A FEW
STRIKES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MENTION MORNING SHOWERS...
BUT SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE SUPPRESSES PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT STRATUS/FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING AFTER 06Z.
MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH MOVE
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE EAST BY MID MORNING. AS LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATE...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. MIXED
LAYER CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. DRY LINE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT TO DEFEAT THE CAP. SO...WILL CONTINUE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS ADEQUATE...BUT NOT GREAT SO AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS.
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY SLOW WARM/UP...BUT
WITH EXPECTED CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING WHICH WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. AGAIN...THE MID LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN THE CAP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A DRY LINE MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY EAST OF OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 30 DEGREES CELSIUS BY THE AFTERNOON...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORT/WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS APPEAR BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...AND THEN DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF IS
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND KEEPS IT IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS
DEPICTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS BUT IS MUCH SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THIS RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF A
POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
EVENT IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. THIS AFTERNOON LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN. LOW CLOUDS CLEARED OUT OF GLD AND MCK LATE THIS MORNING
BUT MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT GUSTING TO 20KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...INCREASING TOWARDS DAWN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL BECOME
A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS TO IFR LEVELS. FOG
WILL LIFT EARLY TOMORROW BUT THE IFR CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...JJM
000
FXUS63 KDDC 231738
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
AS EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THE HEELS OF AN EASTERLY WIND. SURFACES
PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEHIND A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT ALL DAY. STRATUS,
ALTHOUGH NO NECESSARILY LOW, WILL DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO THE MY
AREA LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION. THUS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN PERSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED SHOWERS BY SUNRISE BUT NOTHING IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER, LATER IN THE DAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND AT LEAST SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTING OCCURS, THERE COULD
STILL BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL IMPINGE ON KANSAS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I295-I305
ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY END EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT BY LATE DAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR A DEEPENING
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED LATE DAY MUCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 30KTS
SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ALL THE MODELS THIS
MORNING DO AGREE THAT NORTH OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS
LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF THIS WARM FRONT NEAR 90 DEGREES HIGHS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE/DRYLINE REMAINS IN OR NEAR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS ANY SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGESTING HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S
BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. MODELS
THIS MORNING DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHICH ON WILL BE MORE CORRECT.
AS A RESULT WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND CREXTENDFCST_INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD MIX OUT INTO A BROKEN VF/MVFR CUMULUS DECK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO LOWER
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORIES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 56 80 63 / 10 30 20 30
GCK 69 57 81 63 / 10 30 20 30
EHA 74 58 86 61 / 20 30 40 40
LBL 72 60 85 64 / 20 30 20 30
HYS 72 54 76 62 / 20 30 30 30
P28 73 55 78 65 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD
000
FXUS63 KTOP 231737
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1237 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE OLD UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0Z 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTING WEAK TO MODERATE RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WAS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SOUTH
WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SHRINKING STRATUS
DECK WAS OOZING SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHALLOW NATURE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD ALLOW THE INVADING STRATUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THOUGH MORE COULD REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS
AGAIN STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER VEERING ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS LEE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT IN THE WEST WITH MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE VIA WEAK WINDS AND ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING. THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH TO USHER ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMER MAKING
IT THIS FAR NORTH IS NOT VERY HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...REST ASSURED IT
WONT BE RAINING ALL DAY EVERY DAY. CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY
SMALL WAVES IN THE FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BY THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ...AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARIES THAT THE CONVECTION
LEAVES BEHIND TO REGENERATE CHANCES FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY...AND
OTHER MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS RELATED TO ALL THESE FEATURES. WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETTER IN A WINDOW
CLOSER TO THEIR TIME SCALES...BY A MATTER OF A DAY OR TWO RATHER
THAN SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
FIRST FEATURE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED N/S FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NEBRASKA...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WHICH CLIPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FOLLOWING NIGHT LLJ
SLIDES CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND TO THE NE OF THE CWA AND MAY
RUN THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BOUNDARY FROM THIS MCS COULD THEN
LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REGENERATE
STORMS...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDING ACROSS WRN/CTRL KS AND
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MAY CATCH A BREAK BETWEEN WAVES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE WRN THRU NORTHERN
COUNTIES INTO MONDAY. SOME SUGGESTION THAT RIDGE AMPLIFIES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH GFS AMPLIFIES IT FARTHER TO
THE EAST OF OUR FA AND KEEPS THE DAMP PATTERN GOING FOR ANOTHER
DAY. AFTER A COOLER DAY IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND WAA RETURNS...SHOULD SE A SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE CAN AMPLIFY...MAY SEE
WARMER TEMPS TOWARD LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS CONTINUED TO BLANKET THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO LOW-END VFR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONE ISSUE OF UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE
TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THIS CLOUD COVER SO
HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF KTOP/KFOE TAFS ATTM...BUT THERE IS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OUT TOWARD KMHK SO HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH A
MENTION. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...HENNECKE
000
FXUS63 KICT 231735
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1235 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
SCT TSRA MOVG E30KTS HAVING VENTURED OVER WRN KINGMAN HAVE PROMPTED
AN UPDATE TO APPLY COVERAGE DESCRIPTOR (SCT TSRA) & TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE QPF TO SC KS TIL 15Z. REMAINDER OF INHERITED FCST ON TRACK
& THEREFORE KEPT INTACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
RICH 850 MB MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LONG ROUTE
OF THE RIO GRANDE. ESTIMATES ARE THAT THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
COULD REACH OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPULSES...ONE PRESENTLY OVER CO/NM...WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION TODAY WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSE A HAIL
THREAT...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND W-NWRLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 45 KT. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION. FOR SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS HINT AT MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ISOLATED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RAPIDLY INCREASING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE AREA.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS...WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DRYLINE...AND WITH NIGHTLY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JETS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE EJECTION TIMING OF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY OUT
OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FESTER A COUPLE HOURS LONGER UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF WICHITA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY FUEL CONVECTION THAT
COULD IMPACT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA COULD ALSO BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
FRIDAY MORNING.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 74 57 76 64 / 20 20 30 20
HUTCHINSON 73 57 76 65 / 20 30 40 30
NEWTON 72 56 74 64 / 20 20 30 20
ELDORADO 73 55 75 63 / 20 20 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 57 77 64 / 30 20 30 20
RUSSELL 72 55 77 65 / 20 30 40 30
GREAT BEND 72 56 76 65 / 20 40 40 30
SALINA 73 52 77 65 / 10 20 30 30
MCPHERSON 73 56 75 65 / 20 20 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 75 55 78 60 / 20 20 20 20
CHANUTE 74 52 76 60 / 10 20 20 20
IOLA 74 51 76 59 / 10 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 75 54 76 60 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 231259
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
759 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
SCT TSRA MOVG E30KTS HAVING VENTURED OVER WRN KINGMAN HAVE PROMPTED
AN UPDATE TO APPLY COVERAGE DESCRIPTOR (SCT TSRA) & TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE QPF TO SC KS TIL 15Z. REMAINDER OF INHERITED FCST ON TRACK
& THEREFORE KEPT INTACT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
RICH 850 MB MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LONG ROUTE
OF THE RIO GRANDE. ESTIMATES ARE THAT THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
COULD REACH OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPULSES...ONE PRESENTLY OVER CO/NM...WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION TODAY WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSE A HAIL
THREAT...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND W-NWRLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 45 KT. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION. FOR SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS HINT AT MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ISOLATED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RAPIDLY INCREASING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE AREA.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS...WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DRYLINE...AND WITH NIGHTLY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JETS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE EJECTION TIMING OF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY OUT
OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
AT TAF ISSUANCE AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY NWD DEVELOPMENT FROM SVR
+TSRA MOVG E30KTS OVER CNTRL OK AS AIRMASS OVER SC & SE KS CAPPED
PLUS LOW-LVL JET IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. SCT --RA OCCURRING FROM
KRSL-KGLD SHOULD DISSIPATE IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALL TERMINALS TO
MAINTAIN VFR STATUS AS NLY WINDS ~10KTS GRADUALLY BECOME NE/E ~15
KTS BY 18Z. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY SW & WRN KS TONIGHT
AS LWR-DECK FLOW BECOMES MORE SSELY & INCREASES TO ENABLE RICHER
LWR-DECK MOISTURE TO MIGRATE N FROM W TX TO ALONG KS/CO BORDER &
WITH SW MID-LVL FLOW THE SCT TSRA MAY VENTURE AS FAR W AS KRSL &
KHUT ~09Z. THIS ISSUE WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCES (ESPECIALLY THE 00Z & 06Z EDITIONS.)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 74 57 76 64 / 20 20 30 20
HUTCHINSON 73 57 76 65 / 20 30 40 30
NEWTON 72 56 74 64 / 20 20 30 20
ELDORADO 73 55 75 63 / 20 20 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 57 77 64 / 30 20 30 20
RUSSELL 72 55 77 65 / 20 30 40 30
GREAT BEND 72 56 76 65 / 20 40 40 30
SALINA 73 52 77 65 / 10 20 30 30
MCPHERSON 73 56 75 65 / 20 20 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 75 55 78 60 / 20 20 20 20
CHANUTE 74 52 76 60 / 10 20 20 20
IOLA 74 51 76 59 / 10 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 75 54 76 60 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 231215
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
715 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
RICH 850 MB MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LONG ROUTE
OF THE RIO GRANDE. ESTIMATES ARE THAT THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
COULD REACH OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPULSES...ONE PRESENTLY OVER CO/NM...WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION TODAY WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSE A HAIL
THREAT...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND W-NWRLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 45 KT. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION. FOR SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS HINT AT MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ISOLATED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RAPIDLY INCREASING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE AREA.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS...WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DRYLINE...AND WITH NIGHTLY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JETS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE EJECTION TIMING OF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY OUT
OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
AT TAF ISSUANCE AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY NWD DEVELOPMENT FROM SVR
+TSRA MOVG E30KTS OVER CNTRL OK AS AIRMASS OVER SC & SE KS CAPPED
PLUS LOW-LVL JET IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. SCT --RA OCCURRING FROM
KRSL-KGLD SHOULD DISSIPATE IN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ALL TERMINALS TO
MAINTAIN VFR STATUS AS NLY WINDS ~10KTS GRADUALLY BECOME NE/E ~15
KTS BY 18Z. SCT TSRA POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY SW & WRN KS TONIGHT
AS LWR-DECK FLOW BECOMES MORE SSELY & INCREASES TO ENABLE RICHER
LWR-DECK MOISTURE TO MIGRATE N FROM W TX TO ALONG KS/CO BORDER &
WITH SW MID-LVL FLOW THE SCT TSRA MAY VENTURE AS FAR W AS KRSL &
KHUT ~09Z. THIS ISSUE WILL BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF
ISSUANCES (ESPECIALLY THE 00Z & 06Z EDITIONS.)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 74 57 76 64 / 20 20 30 20
HUTCHINSON 73 57 76 65 / 20 30 40 30
NEWTON 72 56 74 64 / 20 20 30 20
ELDORADO 73 55 75 63 / 20 20 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 57 77 64 / 30 20 30 20
RUSSELL 72 55 77 65 / 20 30 40 30
GREAT BEND 72 56 76 65 / 20 40 40 30
SALINA 73 52 77 65 / 10 20 30 30
MCPHERSON 73 56 75 65 / 20 20 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 75 55 78 60 / 20 20 20 20
CHANUTE 74 52 76 60 / 10 20 20 20
IOLA 74 51 76 59 / 10 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 75 54 76 60 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ES
000
FXUS63 KTOP 231138
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE OLD UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0Z 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTING WEAK TO MODERATE RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WAS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SOUTH
WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SHRINKING STRATUS
DECK WAS OOZING SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHALLOW NATURE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD ALLOW THE INVADING STRATUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THOUGH MORE COULD REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS
AGAIN STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER VEERING ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS LEE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT IN THE WEST WITH MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE VIA WEAK WINDS AND ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING. THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH TO USHER ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMER MAKING
IT THIS FAR NORTH IS NOT VERY HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...REST ASSURED IT
WONT BE RAINING ALL DAY EVERY DAY. CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY
SMALL WAVES IN THE FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BY THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ...AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARIES THAT THE CONVECTION
LEAVES BEHIND TO REGENERATE CHANCES FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY...AND
OTHER MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS RELATED TO ALL THESE FEATURES. WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETTER IN A WINDOW
CLOSER TO THEIR TIME SCALES...BY A MATTER OF A DAY OR TWO RATHER
THAN SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
FIRST FEATURE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED N/S FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NEBRASKA...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WHICH CLIPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FOLLOWING NIGHT LLJ
SLIDES CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND TO THE NE OF THE CWA AND MAY
RUN THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BOUNDARY FROM THIS MCS COULD THEN
LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REGENERATE
STORMS...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDING ACROSS WRN/CTRL KS AND
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MAY CATCH A BREAK BETWEEN WAVES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE WRN THRU NORTHERN
COUNTIES INTO MONDAY. SOME SUGGESTION THAT RIDGE AMPLIFIES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH GFS AMPLIFIES IT FARTHER TO
THE EAST OF OUR FA AND KEEPS THE DAMP PATTERN GOING FOR ANOTHER
DAY. AFTER A COOLER DAY IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND WAA RETURNS...SHOULD SE A SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE CAN AMPLIFY...MAY SEE
WARMER TEMPS TOWARD LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LIMITING CEILINGS ARE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE TERMINALS...WITH
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN THE MVFR RANGE. STRATUS DECK REMAINS TO
BE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER THIN...AND EXPECT VFR TO RETURN BY 17Z.
WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO A EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
000
FXUS63 KGLD 231135
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
UPDATED THE FORECASTS FOR RECENT PRECIPITATION TRENDS. BASICALLY
CLEARED RAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST PART OF AREA...BUT KEPT MORNING
SHOWERS MENTIONED IN THE EAST. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE STABLE SO
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
TODAY...A WEAK SHORT/WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
THROUGH 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE...CANNOT IGNORE THE RADAR WHICH
DEPICTS SHOWERS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO SHOWS A FEW
STRIKES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MENTION MORNING SHOWERS...
BUT SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE SUPPRESSES PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT STRATUS/FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING AFTER 06Z.
MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH MOVE
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE EAST BY MID MORNING. AS LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATE...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. MIXED
LAYER CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. DRY LINE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT TO DEFEAT THE CAP. SO...WILL CONTINUE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS ADEQUATE...BUT NOT GREAT SO AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS.
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY SLOW WARM/UP...BUT
WITH EXPECTED CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING WHICH WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. AGAIN...THE MID LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN THE CAP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A DRY LINE MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY EAST OF OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 30 DEGREES CELSIUS BY THE AFTERNOON...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORT/WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS APPEAR BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...AND THEN DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF IS
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND KEEPS IT IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS
DEPICTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS BUT IS MUCH SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THIS RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF A
POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
EVENT IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGLD DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND WILL
CARRY THIS THROUGH 15Z. KMCK HAS STAYED IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. CEILINGS AT
BOTH SITES RISE TO VFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING TO
AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOWERING OF CEILINGS AGAIN. LOWERED
VISIBILITIES SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR FOG POTENTIAL AS WELL AFTER
06Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...BOWERS
000
FXUS63 KDDC 231105
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
AS EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THE HEELS OF AN EASTERLY WIND. SURFACES
PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEHIND A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT ALL DAY. STRATUS,
ALTHOUGH NO NECESSARILY LOW, WILL DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO THE MY
AREA LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION. THUS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN PERSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED SHOWERS BY SUNRISE BUT NOTHING IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER, LATER IN THE DAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND AT LEAST SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTING OCCURS, THERE COULD
STILL BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL IMPINGE ON KANSAS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I295-I305
ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY END EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT BY LATE DAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR A DEEPENING
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED LATE DAY MUCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 30KTS
SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ALL THE MODELS THIS
MORNING DO AGREE THAT NORTH OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS
LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF THIS WARM FRONT NEAR 90 DEGREES HIGHS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE/DRYLINE REMAINS IN OR NEAR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS ANY SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGESTING HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S
BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. MODELS
THIS MORNING DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHICH ON WILL BE MORE CORRECT.
AS A RESULT WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND CREXTENDFCST _INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
EASTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. 06Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE 850MB TO 700MB LEVEL WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT HAYS TOWARDS 00Z THURSDAY. AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 56 80 63 / 20 30 20 30
GCK 70 57 81 63 / 20 30 20 30
EHA 75 58 86 61 / 20 30 40 40
LBL 73 60 85 64 / 20 30 20 30
HYS 70 54 76 62 / 20 30 30 30
P28 72 55 78 65 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
000
FXUS63 KDDC 230849
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
AS EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THE HEELS OF AN EASTERLY WIND. SURFACES
PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEHIND A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT ALL DAY. STRATUS,
ALTHOUGH NO NECESSARILY LOW, WILL DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO THE MY
AREA LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION. THUS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN PERSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED SHOWERS BY SUNRISE BUT NOTHING IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER, LATER IN THE DAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND AT LEAST SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTING OCCURS, THERE COULD
STILL BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL IMPINGE ON KANSAS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND I295-I305
ISENTROPIC LIFT CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BRIEFLY END EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT BY LATE DAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND NEAR A DEEPENING
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED LATE DAY MUCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 30KTS
SO ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT IS
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER ALL THE MODELS THIS
MORNING DO AGREE THAT NORTH OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN ARE EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS
LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
OF THIS WARM FRONT NEAR 90 DEGREES HIGHS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SUBTLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATE AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE/DRYLINE REMAINS IN OR NEAR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS ANY SUBTLE
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 850-700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGESTING HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S
BOTH DAYS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. MODELS
THIS MORNING DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHICH ON WILL BE MORE CORRECT.
AS A RESULT WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE AND CREXTENDFCST _INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE HAYS AREA BY 10Z AND INTO GCK AND
DDC BY 12Z. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTENING EASTERLY WINDS HAVE COMMENCED AND WILL BE
REINFORCED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THERE WAS ALREADY
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE SURFACE FLOW MOVES WEST INTO
HIGHER TERRAIN STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY
SUNRISE. INITIAL THINKING IS MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE REACHED AT HYS
BY 12Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER AT DDC/GCK. I`VE LEFT PCPN OUT OF
THE TERMINALS FOR NOW BUT WILL WATCH FOR ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME
ACTIVITY BY SUNRISE AROUND HAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 56 80 63 / 20 30 20 30
GCK 70 57 81 63 / 20 30 20 30
EHA 75 58 86 61 / 20 30 40 40
LBL 73 60 85 64 / 20 30 20 30
HYS 70 54 76 62 / 20 30 30 30
P28 72 55 78 65 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HUTTON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 230845
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
AS EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS GRADUALLY ADVECTING INTO MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THE HEELS OF AN EASTERLY WIND. SURFACES
PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BEHIND A S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT AND EASTERLY COMPONENT ALL DAY. STRATUS,
ALTHOUGH NO NECESSARILY LOW, WILL DEVELOP OR ADVECT INTO THE MY
AREA LIMITING SOLAR INSOLATION. THUS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAD BEEN PERSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING ELEVATED SHOWERS BY SUNRISE BUT NOTHING IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER, LATER IN THE DAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES AND AT LEAST SOME ISENTROPIC LIFTING OCCURS, THERE COULD
STILL BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. TONIGHT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL IMPINGE ON KANSAS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SURGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. BUT SOME MID LEVEL FLOW COMING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO KANSAS. WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE AND STRONG
DIRECTIONAL TURNING, A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR HAYS TO THE UPPER 80S IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR EAST IT WILL PROGRESS. THE ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS AND GENERALLY A LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE BEST
ONE. FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, MODERATE TO HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG, SO
TORNADIC STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S SINCE
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND THE
WARMEST LOWS SHOULD BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE HAYS AREA BY 10Z AND INTO GCK AND
DDC BY 12Z. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTENING EASTERLY WINDS HAVE COMMENCED AND WILL BE
REINFORCED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THERE WAS ALREADY
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE SURFACE FLOW MOVES WEST INTO
HIGHER TERRAIN STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY
SUNRISE. INITIAL THINKING IS MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE REACHED AT HYS
BY 12Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER AT DDC/GCK. I`VE LEFT PCPN OUT OF
THE TERMINALS FOR NOW BUT WILL WATCH FOR ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME
ACTIVITY BY SUNRISE AROUND HAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 71 56 80 63 / 20 30 20 30
GCK 70 57 81 63 / 20 30 20 30
EHA 75 58 86 61 / 20 30 40 40
LBL 73 60 85 64 / 20 30 20 30
HYS 70 54 76 62 / 20 30 30 30
P28 72 55 78 65 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HUTTON
000
FXUS63 KGLD 230836
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
TODAY...A WEAK SHORT/WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
THROUGH 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE WAVE...CANNOT IGNORE THE RADAR WHICH
DEPICTS SHOWERS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHTNING DATA ALSO SHOWS A FEW
STRIKES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MENTION MORNING SHOWERS...
BUT SHOWERS WILL END DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE SUPPRESSES PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT STRATUS/FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DROP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY.
TONIGHT...MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING AFTER 06Z.
MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH MOVE
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AS DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE EAST BY MID MORNING. AS LOW
CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATE...THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. MIXED
LAYER CAPES WILL RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. DRY LINE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z WHICH WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR LIFT TO DEFEAT THE CAP. SO...WILL CONTINUE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS ADEQUATE...BUT NOT GREAT SO AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS.
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SO EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS MAY INITIALLY SLOW WARM/UP...BUT
WITH EXPECTED CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING WHICH WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES. AGAIN...THE MID LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN THE CAP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A DRY LINE MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY...EXPECT SOME STORMS TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY EAST OF OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACH 30 DEGREES CELSIUS BY THE AFTERNOON...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK SHORT/WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS APPEAR BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...AND THEN DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THAT MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF IS
LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND KEEPS IT IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS
DEPICTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF ALSO INDICATES AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS BUT IS MUCH SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. THIS RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF A
POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
EVENT IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRATUS DECK QUICKLY APPROACHING THE KMCK TERMINAL AND CIGS
WILL DROP SHORTLY TO MVFR. STRATUS WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DEVELOPING AT KGLD. ALTHOUGH FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORY
RESTRICTION. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THURSDAY MORNING AS
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STRATUS TO DISSIPATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...024
000
FXUS63 KTOP 230812
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
THE OLD UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0Z 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTING WEAK TO MODERATE RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WAS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SOUTH
WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SHRINKING STRATUS
DECK WAS OOZING SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHALLOW NATURE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD ALLOW THE INVADING STRATUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THOUGH MORE COULD REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS
AGAIN STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER VEERING ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS LEE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT IN THE WEST WITH MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE VIA WEAK WINDS AND ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING. THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH TO USHER ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMER MAKING
IT THIS FAR NORTH IS NOT VERY HIGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...REST ASSURED IT
WONT BE RAINING ALL DAY EVERY DAY. CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY
SMALL WAVES IN THE FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BY THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ...AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARIES THAT THE CONVECTION
LEAVES BEHIND TO REGENERATE CHANCES FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY...AND
OTHER MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS RELATED TO ALL THESE FEATURES. WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETTER IN A WINDOW
CLOSER TO THEIR TIME SCALES...BY A MATTER OF A DAY OR TWO RATHER
THAN SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
FIRST FEATURE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED N/S FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NEBRASKA...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WHICH CLIPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FOLLOWING NIGHT LLJ
SLIDES CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND TO THE NE OF THE CWA AND MAY
RUN THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BOUNDARY FROM THIS MCS COULD THEN
LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REGENERATE
STORMS...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDING ACROSS WRN/CTRL KS AND
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MAY CATCH A BREAK BETWEEN WAVES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE WRN THRU NORTHERN
COUNTIES INTO MONDAY. SOME SUGGESTION THAT RIDGE AMPLIFIES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH GFS AMPLIFIES IT FARTHER TO
THE EAST OF OUR FA AND KEEPS THE DAMP PATTERN GOING FOR ANOTHER
DAY. AFTER A COOLER DAY IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND WAA RETURNS...SHOULD SE A SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE CAN AMPLIFY...MAY SEE
WARMER TEMPS TOWARD LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE RAP AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH BY 12Z. THEREFORE FORECAST THINKING IS
UNCHANGED. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY NOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRATOCU DECK PERSISTING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH RIDGING NOSING IN.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...WOLTERS
000
FXUS63 KICT 230811
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.
RICH 850 MB MOISTURE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE LONG ROUTE
OF THE RIO GRANDE. ESTIMATES ARE THAT THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
COULD REACH OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF
WEAK IMPULSES...ONE PRESENTLY OVER CO/NM...WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION TODAY WITH SOME ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING OVER OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD POSE A HAIL
THREAT...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND W-NWRLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF 45 KT. A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FROM
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OK CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THRU WITH STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION. FOR SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS HINT AT MCS
ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
ISOLATED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RAPIDLY INCREASING. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OVER THE AREA.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS...WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN
PLACE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM EACH
AFTERNOON NEAR THE DRYLINE...AND WITH NIGHTLY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JETS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA. THE PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE EJECTION TIMING OF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY OUT
OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS STILL LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. STILL
EXPECTING A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP OUR FURTHEST SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE IT UP TO KICT. THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/FAR NORTHEAST KS WILL WORK SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL APPROACH CENTRAL KS. 00Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THESE LOWER CIGS JUST NORTH OF KRSL AND KSLN.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 74 57 76 64 / 20 20 30 20
HUTCHINSON 73 57 76 65 / 20 30 40 30
NEWTON 72 56 74 64 / 20 20 30 20
ELDORADO 73 55 75 63 / 20 20 30 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 57 77 64 / 30 20 30 20
RUSSELL 72 55 77 65 / 20 30 40 30
GREAT BEND 72 56 76 65 / 20 40 40 30
SALINA 73 52 77 65 / 10 20 30 30
MCPHERSON 73 56 75 65 / 20 20 30 30
COFFEYVILLE 75 55 78 60 / 20 20 20 20
CHANUTE 74 52 76 60 / 10 20 20 20
IOLA 74 51 76 59 / 10 20 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 75 54 76 60 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 230604
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
104 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS IT IS GETTING PHASED
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY. A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS IT MOVES OUT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WEST PART OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WAS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. THEY DO SHOW SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT OVER WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE HRRR IS STARTING TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING WORKING INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. LOW
STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST, ALBEIT WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE. AREAS FARTHER WEST WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT
STABLE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S IN
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. AREAS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
COULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SURGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. BUT SOME MID LEVEL FLOW COMING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO KANSAS. WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE AND STRONG
DIRECTIONAL TURNING, A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR HAYS TO THE UPPER 80S IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR EAST IT WILL PROGRESS. THE ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS AND GENERALLY A LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE BEST
ONE. FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, MODERATE TO HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG, SO
TORNADIC STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S SINCE
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND THE
WARMEST LOWS SHOULD BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE HAYS AREA BY 10Z AND INTO GCK AND
DDC BY 12Z. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MOISTENING EASTERLY WINDS HAVE COMMENCED AND WILL BE
REINFORCED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THERE WAS ALREADY
STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE SURFACE FLOW MOVES WEST INTO
HIGHER TERRAIN STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY
SUNRISE. INITIAL THINKING IS MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE REACHED AT HYS
BY 12Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER AT DDC/GCK. I`VE LEFT PCPN OUT OF
THE TERMINALS FOR NOW BUT WILL WATCH FOR ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT
EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME
ACTIVITY BY SUNRISE AROUND HAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 81 63 89 / 40 30 30 30
GCK 58 83 63 91 / 30 40 40 20
EHA 59 88 63 92 / 30 40 30 20
LBL 60 87 64 91 / 30 40 30 20
HYS 56 77 67 89 / 40 40 30 40
P28 59 78 67 86 / 30 40 30 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HUTTON
000
FXUS63 KGLD 230522
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1122 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
REST OF TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD...WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS COUNTIES. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
AS A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE LLJ COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW LYING AREAS WHERE
VISIBILITY DROPS BELOW ONE MILE. LOWS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S.
TOMORROW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY MID-DAY...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER
OR LOWER DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERS PREDOMINANTLY DUE TO THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY
LAYER RH INCREASES TO 90 PERCENT OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES UP THE RIDGE INTO THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2400 TO 2800 J/KG
WITH 30 TO 40KTS OF SHEAR. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA.
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FRIDAY TO THE
MID 80S SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER FLOW
WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL INITIATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 C SO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRATUS DECK QUICKLY APPROACHING THE KMCK TERMINAL AND CIGS
WILL DROP SHORTLY TO MVFR. STRATUS WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DEVELOPING AT KGLD. ALTHOUGH FOG CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORY
RESTRICTION. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THURSDAY MORNING AS
EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL ALLOW THE STRATUS TO DISSIPATE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024
000
FXUS63 KICT 230439
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT
APPROACHING KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK WAVE WILL HELP
TO INDUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE QUESTION COMES IN WHERE
THEY WILL FORM...AND WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE. THE NAM HAS
BACKED OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH IT BRINGS THE MOISTURE AND THINK THIS
IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN HERE AND THE BEST
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SURGE NORTHWARD BY LATE THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND THEN WEST. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BILLINGS
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AND CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. IT DOES HOWEVER SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST. LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE GULF WILL BE OPEN...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT. THUS INDUCING AMPLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY OUT WEST WHERE BEST SURFACE
FEATURES EXIST AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD SOME...HOWEVER...WITH A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR...BEING UNDER THE RIDGE...LARGE COMPLEXES OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH THE EXPECTED
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS A
THREAT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ONE DAY BEING BETTER FOR STORM
CHANCES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THIS BEING A
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR ANY OUTDOOR
EVENTS AS LIGHTENING IS ALWAYS A THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MINIMAL AVIATION CONCERNS STILL LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. STILL
EXPECTING A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP OUR FURTHEST SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE THEY WILL MAKE IT UP TO KICT. THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/FAR NORTHEAST KS WILL WORK SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL APPROACH CENTRAL KS. 00Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THESE LOWER CIGS JUST NORTH OF KRSL AND KSLN.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 74 57 76 / 20 20 20 30
HUTCHINSON 52 73 57 76 / 20 20 20 40
NEWTON 51 72 56 74 / 20 20 20 30
ELDORADO 52 73 56 75 / 20 20 20 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 74 57 77 / 20 30 20 30
RUSSELL 49 72 56 77 / 20 20 30 40
GREAT BEND 50 72 57 76 / 20 20 30 40
SALINA 51 73 55 77 / 10 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 51 73 56 75 / 10 20 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 55 75 57 78 / 20 20 20 20
CHANUTE 53 74 55 76 / 10 20 20 20
IOLA 52 74 54 76 / 10 10 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 53 75 56 76 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 230422
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1122 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEEKEND`S ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
WAS SITUATED OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHED WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST AND
FAR EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH RESULTED IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE HIGH
SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...SHOULD START SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH
MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...SHOULD STILL HAVE SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS CLOUD COVER
COMBINED WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH READINGS LIKING PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FLAT RIDGE WITH INCREASING WAA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL BOUTS OF
THUNDERSTORM CHCS. THE INITIAL FORCING IS WEAK THU NIGHT INTO FRI
AND SHOULD STAY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. WILL
KEEP RAIN CHCS LOW AND CONFINED TO AREAS TOPEKA NORTH AND WEST FOR
FRI BUT AGAIN WITHOUT A FOCUS AND GREATER FORCING NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY PRECIP WILL BE FRI.
BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THETA-E (MOISTURE AND TEMP ADVECTION) WILL
INCREASE ACROSS KS INTO NEBRASKA. NOSE OF THE 50KT LLJ WILL TARGET
NORTHEAST NEB SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MAIN COMPLEX OF ANY MCS
WOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SCT
CONVECTION WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THIS
SHOULD HELP ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOP ACROSS NE/NORTHERN KS
SO WILL KEEP 20 TO 40 POPS WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT AND MON SO HAVE TO EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR MAINLY NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON AS WEAK WAVES MOVE INTO THE FLATTENING RIDGE
AND COMBINE WITH THE NIGHTTIME LLJ TO FEED OVERNIGHT STORMS.
MON AND BEYOND...IT APPEARS THAT RIDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN BY TUES
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPS AND PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIP CHCS BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE RAP AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH BY 12Z. THEREFORE FORECAST THINKING IS
UNCHANGED. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY NOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRATOCU DECK PERSISTING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH RIDGING NOSING IN.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...WOLTERS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 222359
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
REST OF TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD...WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS COUNTIES. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
AS A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE LLJ COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW LYING AREAS WHERE
VISIBILITY DROPS BELOW ONE MILE. LOWS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S.
TOMORROW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY MID-DAY...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER
OR LOWER DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERS PREDOMINANTLY DUE TO THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY
LAYER RH INCREASES TO 90 PERCENT OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES UP THE RIDGE INTO THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2400 TO 2800 J/KG
WITH 30 TO 40KTS OF SHEAR. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA.
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FRIDAY TO THE
MID 80S SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER FLOW
WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL INITIATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 C SO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO THE AREA BRINGING LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO MCK AROUND
09Z AND GLD AROUND 11Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT AND THEN
BECOME MVFR AROUND 06Z FOR MCK AND 09Z FOR GLD. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO IFR AROUND 09Z FOR MCK AND 11Z FOR GLD. VISIBILITY SHOULD
NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH SINCE SOUNDINGS FAVOR LOW STRATUS OVER
FOG...ALTHOUGH MCK HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG FORMING SO
VISIBILITY WAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT IN THE
MORNING AROUND 14Z BUT CLOUDS WILL STAY OVER BOTH LOCATIONS FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MIDDAY ON THURSDAY AT GLD..MCK LOOKS TO BE A BIT DRIER
MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART/AW
000
FXUS63 KICT 222346
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT
APPROACHING KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK WAVE WILL HELP
TO INDUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE QUESTION COMES IN WHERE
THEY WILL FORM...AND WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE. THE NAM HAS
BACKED OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH IT BRINGS THE MOISTURE AND THINK THIS
IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN HERE AND THE BEST
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SURGE NORTHWARD BY LATE THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND THEN WEST. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BILLINGS
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AND CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. IT DOES HOWEVER SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST. LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE GULF WILL BE OPEN...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT. THUS INDUCING AMPLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY OUT WEST WHERE BEST SURFACE
FEATURES EXIST AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD SOME...HOWEVER...WITH A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR...BEING UNDER THE RIDGE...LARGE COMPLEXES OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH THE EXPECTED
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS A
THREAT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ONE DAY BEING BETTER FOR STORM
CHANCES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THIS BEING A
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR ANY OUTDOOR
EVENTS AS LIGHTENING IS ALWAYS A THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
COOLER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER-IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THE LOW CIGS WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WILL RUN WITH SOME SOME 3-4,000FT CIGS TONIGHT FOR BOTH
KRSL AND KSLN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST BY THU MORNING.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 74 57 76 / 20 20 20 30
HUTCHINSON 52 73 57 76 / 20 20 20 40
NEWTON 51 72 56 74 / 20 20 20 30
ELDORADO 52 73 56 75 / 20 20 20 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 74 57 77 / 20 30 20 30
RUSSELL 49 72 56 77 / 20 20 30 40
GREAT BEND 50 72 57 76 / 20 20 30 40
SALINA 51 73 55 77 / 10 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 51 73 56 75 / 10 20 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 55 75 57 78 / 20 20 20 20
CHANUTE 53 74 55 76 / 10 20 20 20
IOLA 52 74 54 76 / 10 10 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 53 75 56 76 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 222310
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEEKEND`S ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
WAS SITUATED OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHED WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST AND
FAR EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH RESULTED IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE HIGH
SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...SHOULD START SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH
MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...SHOULD STILL HAVE SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS CLOUD COVER
COMBINED WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH READINGS LIKING PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FLAT RIDGE WITH INCREASING WAA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL BOUTS OF
THUNDERSTORM CHCS. THE INITIAL FORCING IS WEAK THU NIGHT INTO FRI
AND SHOULD STAY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. WILL
KEEP RAIN CHCS LOW AND CONFINED TO AREAS TOPEKA NORTH AND WEST FOR
FRI BUT AGAIN WITHOUT A FOCUS AND GREATER FORCING NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY PRECIP WILL BE FRI.
BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THETA-E (MOISTURE AND TEMP ADVECTION) WILL
INCREASE ACROSS KS INTO NEBRASKA. NOSE OF THE 50KT LLJ WILL TARGET
NORTHEAST NEB SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MAIN COMPLEX OF ANY MCS
WOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SCT
CONVECTION WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THIS
SHOULD HELP ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOP ACROSS NE/NORTHERN KS
SO WILL KEEP 20 TO 40 POPS WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT AND MON SO HAVE TO EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR MAINLY NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON AS WEAK WAVES MOVE INTO THE FLATTENING RIDGE
AND COMBINE WITH THE NIGHTTIME LLJ TO FEED OVERNIGHT STORMS.
MON AND BEYOND...IT APPEARS THAT RIDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN BY TUES
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPS AND PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIP CHCS BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THINK THAT THE TERMINALS MAY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE
NAM AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT MOVING
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH BY 12Z. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE ABOVE 3 KFT BY NOON THURSDAY WITH A STRATOCU DECK HANGING
IN FOR A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING AND SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AS SFC RIDGING NOSES IN.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...WOLTERS
000
FXUS63 KDDC 222300
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS IT IS GETTING PHASED
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY. A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS IT MOVES OUT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WEST PART OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WAS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. THEY DO SHOW SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT OVER WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE HRRR IS STARTING TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING WORKING INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. LOW
STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST, ALBEIT WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE. AREAS FARTHER WEST WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT
STABLE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S IN
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. AREAS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
COULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SURGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. BUT SOME MID LEVEL FLOW COMING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO KANSAS. WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE AND STRONG
DIRECTIONAL TURNING, A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR HAYS TO THE UPPER 80S IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR EAST IT WILL PROGRESS. THE ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS AND GENERALLY A LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE BEST
ONE. FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, MODERATE TO HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG, SO
TORNADIC STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S SINCE
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND THE
WARMEST LOWS SHOULD BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NE/E 10-20 KT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE UPSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
AS WELL. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. VFR OR MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED. ISOLATED THREAT OF TS LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF KGCK
TAF FOR NOW DUE TO ISOLATED NATURE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 72 58 81 / 10 20 40 30
GCK 50 71 58 83 / 10 20 30 40
EHA 52 76 59 88 / 10 30 30 40
LBL 53 74 60 87 / 10 30 30 40
HYS 47 71 56 77 / 10 20 40 40
P28 54 73 59 78 / 10 30 30 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN
000
FXUS63 KDDC 222056
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS IT IS GETTING PHASED
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY. A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS IT MOVES OUT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WEST PART OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WAS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. THEY DO SHOW SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT OVER WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE HRRR IS STARTING TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING WORKING INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. LOW
STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST, ALBEIT WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE. AREAS FARTHER WEST WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT
STABLE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S IN
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. AREAS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
COULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SURGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THE WESTERN AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. BUT SOME MID LEVEL FLOW COMING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW FOR LEE TROUGHING AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO KANSAS. WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPE AND STRONG
DIRECTIONAL TURNING, A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR HAYS TO THE UPPER 80S IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR EAST IT WILL PROGRESS. THE ECMWF IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
OTHER MODELS AND GENERALLY A LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS THE BEST
ONE. FOR SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, MODERATE TO HIGH SURFACE BASED CAPE
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD. THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG, SO
TORNADIC STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S SINCE
KANSAS WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES
OUGHT TO BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND THE
WARMEST LOWS SHOULD BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY TO
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW MVFR
CIGS TO GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY BY 10Z THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 72 58 81 / 10 20 40 30
GCK 50 71 58 83 / 10 20 30 40
EHA 52 76 59 88 / 10 30 30 40
LBL 53 74 60 87 / 10 30 30 40
HYS 47 71 56 77 / 10 20 40 40
P28 54 73 59 78 / 10 30 30 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD
000
FXUS63 KTOP 222055
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEEKEND`S ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
WAS SITUATED OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. CLOUD COVER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STRETCHED WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST AND
FAR EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH RESULTED IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO PUSH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS THE HIGH
SPREADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...SHOULD START SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS DIMINISHING CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHICH
MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THAT REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...SHOULD STILL HAVE SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS CLOUD COVER
COMBINED WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON HIGHS COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH READINGS LIKING PEAKING IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FLAT RIDGE WITH INCREASING WAA AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL BOUTS OF
THUNDERSTORM CHCS. THE INITIAL FORCING IS WEAK THU NIGHT INTO FRI
AND SHOULD STAY FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. WILL
KEEP RAIN CHCS LOW AND CONFINED TO AREAS TOPEKA NORTH AND WEST FOR
FRI BUT AGAIN WITHOUT A FOCUS AND GREATER FORCING NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY PRECIP WILL BE FRI.
BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT THETAE (MOISTURE AND TEMP ADVECTION) WILL
INCREASE ACROSS KS INTO NEBRASKA. NOSE OF THE 50KT LLJ WILL TARGET
NORTHEAST NEB SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MAIN COMPLEX OF ANY MCS
WOULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SCT
CONVECTION WITHIN THE LLJ AXIS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIDGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THIS
SHOULD HELP ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOP ACROSS NE/NORTHERN KS
SO WILL KEEP 20 TO 40 POPS WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO SUN NIGHT AND MON SO HAVE TO EXPECT
AT LEAST SOME CHCS FOR MAINLY NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON AS WEAK WAVES MOVE INTO THE FLATTENING RIDGE
AND COMBINE WITH THE NIGHTTIME LLJ TO FEED OVERNIGHT STORMS.
MON AND BEYOND...IT APPEARS THAT RIDGING SHOULD STRENGTHEN BY TUES
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPS AND PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIP CHCS BY MID
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE
VFR/MVFR FROM THE CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW OVER FAR
EASTERN IOWA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW-END VFR CIGS BY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT CIGS MAY RETURN TO
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HENNECKE
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...HENNECKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 222043
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CLOSED LOW WEAKENING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS IT IS GETTING PHASED
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER HUDSON`S BAY. A DEEP CLOSED LOW
WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS IT MOVES OUT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE WEST PART OF THE UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WAS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON
THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. THEY DO SHOW SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT OVER WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE HRRR IS STARTING TO SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING WORKING INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. LOW
STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
ON THURSDAY, SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST, ALBEIT WEAK, ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE. AREAS FARTHER WEST WILL BE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT
STABLE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW 70S IN
MOST AREAS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER. AREAS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
COULD REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED OFF LOW REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL SET UP A MORE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AS A PREVAILING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, NAM AND GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY, NOT TO
MENTION A POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUE THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, UPSLOPE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SUPPORT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPING TO DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BETTER SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ALONG WITH EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUDS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
UP INTO THE 70S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY THE MID 80S(F) IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY TO
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW MVFR
CIGS TO GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY BY 10Z THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 72 58 81 / 10 20 40 30
GCK 50 71 58 83 / 10 20 30 40
EHA 52 76 59 88 / 10 30 30 40
LBL 53 74 60 87 / 10 30 30 40
HYS 47 71 56 77 / 10 20 40 40
P28 54 73 59 78 / 10 30 30 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD
000
FXUS63 KGLD 222022
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
222 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
REST OF TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD...WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS COUNTIES. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
AS A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE LLJ COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW LYING AREAS WHERE
VISIBILITY DROPS BELOW ONE MILE. LOWS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S.
TOMORROW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY MID-DAY...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER
OR LOWER DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SHOWERS PREDOMINANTLY DUE TO THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED THUNDER. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY
LAYER RH INCREASES TO 90 PERCENT OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG WHICH SHOULD PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES UP THE RIDGE INTO THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 2400 TO 2800 J/KG
WITH 30 TO 40KTS OF SHEAR. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE FA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FA.
MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S WARMING TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FRIDAY TO THE
MID 80S SATURDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER FLOW
WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL INITIATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. 850
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 C SO EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND
UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD
AND MCK. TODAY...LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
THIS EVENING...INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA...CAUSING FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR VISIBILITY AT MCK. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE
MVFR DURING THIS PERIOD...LIFTING AFTER DAWN TO VFR LEVELS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JJM
000
FXUS63 KICT 222017
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
A WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT
APPROACHING KANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WEAK WAVE WILL HELP
TO INDUCE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE QUESTION COMES IN WHERE
THEY WILL FORM...AND WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE. THE NAM HAS
BACKED OFF ON HOW FAR NORTH IT BRINGS THE MOISTURE AND THINK THIS
IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN HERE AND THE BEST
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SURGE NORTHWARD BY LATE THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND THEN WEST. ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
BILLINGS
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AND CONTINUES TO STAY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. IT DOES HOWEVER SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST. LEE TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE DRYLINE WELL WEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THE GULF WILL BE OPEN...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PREVALENT. THUS INDUCING AMPLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY OUT WEST WHERE BEST SURFACE
FEATURES EXIST AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD SOME...HOWEVER...WITH A LACK
OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR...BEING UNDER THE RIDGE...LARGE COMPLEXES OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH THE EXPECTED
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS AS A
THREAT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ONE DAY BEING BETTER FOR STORM
CHANCES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THIS BEING A
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR ANY OUTDOOR
EVENTS AS LIGHTENING IS ALWAYS A THREAT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSISTENTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FROM THE
MID 70S TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
RELATIVELY QUIET VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND VEER OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE ADDED A SCT025 DECK AT KRSL/KSLN FOR
NOW...AS CONFIDENCE WHETHER A BROKEN DECK WILL GET THAT FAR SOUTH
IS NOT HIGH. ALSO BELIEVE NAM IS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
RETURN GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
-HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 74 57 76 / 20 20 20 30
HUTCHINSON 52 73 57 76 / 20 20 20 40
NEWTON 51 72 56 74 / 20 20 20 30
ELDORADO 52 73 56 75 / 20 20 20 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 55 74 57 77 / 20 30 20 30
RUSSELL 49 72 56 77 / 20 20 30 40
GREAT BEND 50 72 57 76 / 20 20 30 40
SALINA 51 73 55 77 / 10 10 20 30
MCPHERSON 51 73 56 75 / 10 20 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 55 75 57 78 / 20 20 20 20
CHANUTE 53 74 55 76 / 10 20 20 20
IOLA 52 74 54 76 / 10 10 20 20
PARSONS-KPPF 53 75 56 76 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 221935
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
REST OF TODAY...SUNNY SKIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT THE REST OF TODAY AHEAD...WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT THE
NORTHWEST IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN EASTERN
COLORADO AND ADJACENT KANSAS COUNTIES. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS OUT OF THE EAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH
AS A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE LLJ COMBINED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG CONDITIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LOW LYING AREAS WHERE
VISIBILITY DROPS BELOW ONE MILE. LOWS NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID 40S.
TOMORROW...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT BY MID-DAY...THOUGH SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT THE SOUTHEAST AT THE
SURFACE...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE HIGHER
OR LOWER DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS/FOG IN THE MORNING. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. SO...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE 60S. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STABLE
AIR MASS...SO EXPECT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AT BEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
FINALLY ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GFS IS ALSO DEVELOPING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AROUND 200 J/KG...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION SOME CONVECTION.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STRATUS/FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT WILL CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
AFTER 18Z WITH PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. A
DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY. AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR AROUND 700 MB. EXPECT THE CAP TO
BREAK AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES. THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LENDS
BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH GFS IN PLACING UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT TIMING OF THESE IS DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EVOLVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD
AND MCK. TODAY...LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
THIS EVENING...INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA...CAUSING FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR VISIBILITY AT MCK. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE
MVFR DURING THIS PERIOD...LIFTING AFTER DAWN TO VFR LEVELS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...JJM
000
FXUS63 KGLD 221752
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1152 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO TODAY PLACING THE FORECAST AREA
IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEL THICKNESS PROGS SHOW A 60-90
METER RISE...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 20 DEGREES CELSIUS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AKRON COLORADO TO SCOTT CITY KANSAS. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY OF THIS WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORT/WAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE RIDGE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...AND DEPICTS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. THE NAM SHOWS NO WAVE AND IS DRY.
06Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA...BUT WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING...THINK SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ALSO...
EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE. THE END RESULT...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER NEBRASKA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
REALLY DO NOT VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z...AND SO MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO APPROACH ZERO LATE TONIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH EAST UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL PRODUCE SOME STRATUS/FOG.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS/FOG IN THE MORNING. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. SO...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE 60S. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STABLE
AIR MASS...SO EXPECT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AT BEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
FINALLY ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GFS IS ALSO DEVELOPING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AROUND 200 J/KG...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION SOME CONVECTION.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STRATUS/FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT WILL CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
AFTER 18Z WITH PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. A
DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY. AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR AROUND 700 MB. EXPECT THE CAP TO
BREAK AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES. THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LENDS
BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH GFS IN PLACING UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT TIMING OF THESE IS DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EVOLVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD
AND MCK. TODAY...LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
THIS EVENING...INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA...CAUSING FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF IFR VISIBILITY AT MCK. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE
MVFR DURING THIS PERIOD...LIFTING AFTER DAWN TO VFR LEVELS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...BUT PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...JJM
000
FXUS63 KTOP 221742
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
SLOW-MOVING NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM INCHES EASTWARD. A WEAK POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY WAS ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS IN
RECENT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT DRY
MID LEVELS. PERIODIC LOWER CLOUDS ALSO MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST
INTO KANSAS.
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...THOUGH
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LACKING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AND IN DEEP BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP FOG IN CHECK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURS THRU SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
DAY OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.
FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT POPS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA START TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE SENDS TRAILING PRECIP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MAY
DEVELOP PRECIP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. HAVE SPREAD POPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LLJ VEERS NE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN AND
BRINGS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WAVE PROPAGATES EAST SE THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE
AND AS PROGGED WOULD LINGER STORM CHANCES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM REMAIN
AS THE LLJ INCREASES AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WOULD EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN NE KS.
SUN-TUES...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AND DIFFICULT TO
TIME AS SMALL ROUNDS OF SW ENERGY ROTATE NE OUT OF THE SWRN TROF.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE TO RESPOND TO THESE
WAVES...AS WELL AS NIGHTLY CYCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE PRECIP
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A RESULT. AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE
VFR/MVFR FROM THE CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW OVER FAR
EASTERN IOWA. EXPECT TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW-END VFR CIGS BY
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT CIGS MAY RETURN TO
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY WILL PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...HENNECKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 221737
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY
22 2013
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE "MAY
LIKE" DURING THE AFTERNOON RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THERE WILL BE RATHER
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE WARMEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THOUGH.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE LIFTING EAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL HAVE A SURFACE RESPONSE THAT WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AND WITH AN UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY STRATUS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE WHAT THEY ARE THIS
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED OFF LOW REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL SET UP A MORE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AS A PREVAILING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, NAM AND GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY, NOT TO
MENTION A POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUE THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, UPSLOPE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SUPPORT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPING TO DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BETTER SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ALONG WITH EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUDS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
UP INTO THE 70S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY THE MID 80S(F) IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY TO
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW MVFR
CIGS TO GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY BY 10Z THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 51 73 58 / 0 10 20 40
GCK 80 50 72 58 / 0 10 20 30
EHA 83 54 78 59 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 83 54 75 60 / 10 10 30 30
HYS 74 47 71 56 / 0 10 20 40
P28 80 54 73 59 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD
000
FXUS63 KICT 221706
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1206 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER PLAINS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
THE RICH 850 MB MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED WELL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TX
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS A LONG WAY TO RETURN. SO NOT PLANNING TO GO
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES 20-40% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE INDICATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON ALL MODELS AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A HAIL
THREAT IF THE NAM WERE TO PROVE CORRECT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVECTION OCCURRING.
WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY COOL...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LEE LOW AND DRYLINE WILL BE
SITUATED MAINLY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON A DAILY BASIS...TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK REASONABLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY FOR ANY
ACTIVITY COMING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
RELATIVELY QUIET VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND VEER OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HINTING AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING IN FROM THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE ADDED A SCT025 DECK AT KRSL/KSLN FOR
NOW...AS CONFIDENCE WHETHER A BROKEN DECK WILL GET THAT FAR SOUTH
IS NOT HIGH. ALSO BELIEVE NAM IS TOO AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE
RETURN GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
-HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 78 54 74 58 / 0 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 77 52 72 57 / 0 10 20 20
NEWTON 76 51 71 56 / 0 10 20 20
ELDORADO 76 53 73 56 / 0 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 79 56 74 58 / 0 10 30 30
RUSSELL 75 50 72 56 / 0 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 77 51 71 56 / 0 10 20 30
SALINA 74 50 73 56 / 0 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 76 51 72 56 / 0 10 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 76 55 75 57 / 0 10 20 20
CHANUTE 74 53 73 55 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 74 52 73 54 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 54 74 57 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 221151
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
651 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER PLAINS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
THE RICH 850 MB MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED WELL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TX
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS A LONG WAY TO RETURN. SO NOT PLANNING TO GO
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES 20-40% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE INDICATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON ALL MODELS AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A HAIL
THREAT IF THE NAM WERE TO PROVE CORRECT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVECTION OCCURRING.
WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY COOL...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LEE LOW AND DRYLINE WILL BE
SITUATED MAINLY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON A DAILY BASIS...TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK REASONABLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY FOR ANY
ACTIVITY COMING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
ONLY POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS OVER CNTRL KS WHERE LWR-DECK WRAP-AROUND
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OCCASIONAL 2,500FT
CIGS ACROSS KRSL & KSLN THIS MORNING. AT THE RATE THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE IS MOVG E TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES VFR CIGS SHOULD RESIDE OVER
BOTH TERMINALS BY 17Z. NW WINDS ~13KTS/15MPH SHOULD BE REALIZED OVER
BOTH TERMINALS BY 18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 78 54 74 58 / 0 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 77 52 72 57 / 0 10 20 20
NEWTON 76 51 71 56 / 0 10 20 20
ELDORADO 76 53 73 56 / 0 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 79 56 74 58 / 0 10 30 30
RUSSELL 75 50 72 56 / 0 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 77 51 71 56 / 0 10 20 30
SALINA 74 50 73 56 / 0 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 76 51 72 56 / 0 10 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 76 55 75 57 / 0 10 20 20
CHANUTE 74 53 73 55 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 74 52 73 54 / 0 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 54 74 57 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 221146
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
646 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
SLOW-MOVING NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM INCHES EASTWARD. A WEAK POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY WAS ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS IN
RECENT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT DRY
MID LEVELS. PERIODIC LOWER CLOUDS ALSO MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST
INTO KANSAS.
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...THOUGH
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LACKING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AND IN DEEP BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP FOG IN CHECK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURS THRU SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
DAY OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.
FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT POPS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA START TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE SENDS TRAILING PRECIP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MAY
DEVELOP PRECIP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. HAVE SPREAD POPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LLJ VEERS NE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN AND
BRINGS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WAVE PROPAGATES EAST SE THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE
AND AS PROGGED WOULD LINGER STORM CHANCES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM REMAIN
AS THE LLJ INCREASES AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WOULD EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN NE KS.
SUN-TUES...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AND DIFFICULT TO
TIME AS SMALL ROUNDS OF SW ENERGY ROTATE NE OUT OF THE SWRN TROF.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE TO RESPOND TO THESE
WAVES...AS WELL AS NIGHTLY CYCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE PRECIP
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A RESULT. AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PORTIONS
OF THIS FORECAST. A PATCH OF STRATUS RECENTLY PASSED OVER KTOP AND
A MORE EXTENSIVE FIELD IS UPSTREAM IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PERSISTENCE OF
THE STRATUS IS NOT HIGH. DAYTIME HEATING MAY GIVE RISE TO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...BUT SHOULD ALSO SERVE TO RAISE CLOUDS TO VFR LEVELS
BY 20Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
000
FXUS63 KDDC 221107
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
607 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY
22 2013
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE "MAY
LIKE" DURING THE AFTERNOON RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THERE WILL BE RATHER
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE WARMEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THOUGH.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE LIFTING EAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL HAVE A SURFACE RESPONSE THAT WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AND WITH AN UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY STRATUS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE WHAT THEY ARE THIS
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED OFF LOW REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL SET UP A MORE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AS A PREVAILING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, NAM AND GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY, NOT TO
MENTION A POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUE THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, UPSLOPE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SUPPORT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPING TO DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BETTER SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ALONG WITH EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUDS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
UP INTO THE 70S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY THE MID 80S(F) IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS FOR WINDS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO TURN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15KT THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 51 73 58 / 0 10 20 40
GCK 80 50 72 58 / 0 10 20 30
EHA 83 54 78 59 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 83 54 75 60 / 10 10 30 30
HYS 74 47 71 56 / 0 10 20 40
P28 80 54 73 59 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KGLD 221105
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO TODAY PLACING THE FORECAST AREA
IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEL THICKNESS PROGS SHOW A 60-90
METER RISE...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 20 DEGREES CELSIUS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AKRON COLORADO TO SCOTT CITY KANSAS. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY OF THIS WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORT/WAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE RIDGE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...AND DEPICTS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. THE NAM SHOWS NO WAVE AND IS DRY.
06Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA...BUT WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING...THINK SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ALSO...
EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE. THE END RESULT...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER NEBRASKA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
REALLY DO NOT VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z...AND SO MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO APPROACH ZERO LATE TONIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH EAST UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL PRODUCE SOME STRATUS/FOG.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS/FOG IN THE MORNING. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. SO...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE 60S. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STABLE
AIR MASS...SO EXPECT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AT BEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
FINALLY ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GFS IS ALSO DEVELOPING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AROUND 200 J/KG...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION SOME CONVECTION.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STRATUS/FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT WILL CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
AFTER 18Z WITH PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. A
DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY. AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR AROUND 700 MB. EXPECT THE CAP TO
BREAK AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES. THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LENDS
BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH GFS IN PLACING UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT TIMING OF THESE IS DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EVOLVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IS OVER
KMCK. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE SITE BY 14Z. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR. CONDITIONS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE. INDICATED
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH SITES AFTER 09Z...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
LOWER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN FOG. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...MENTZER
000
FXUS63 KDDC 220917
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY
22 2013
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE "MAY
LIKE" DURING THE AFTERNOON RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THERE WILL BE RATHER
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE WARMEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THOUGH.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE LIFTING EAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL HAVE A SURFACE RESPONSE THAT WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AND WITH AN UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY STRATUS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE WHAT THEY ARE THIS
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS A STRONG
CLOSED OFF LOW REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL SET UP A MORE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AS A PREVAILING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, NAM AND GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY, NOT TO
MENTION A POSSIBLE CAPPING ISSUE THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STILL, UPSLOPE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROJECTED TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SUPPORT RAIN
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND
STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPING TO DRAW THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BETTER SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP USHER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS(C) IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. ALONG WITH EXPECTED INCREASING CLOUDS, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY
UP INTO THE 70S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY THE MID 80S(F) IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. THE BASE OF A SMALL S/WV
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SATELLITE IMAGES DOE
SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
PRESSURES LOWER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST OR NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 51 73 58 / 0 10 20 40
GCK 80 50 72 58 / 0 10 20 30
EHA 83 54 78 59 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 83 54 75 60 / 10 10 30 30
HYS 74 47 71 56 / 0 10 20 40
P28 80 54 73 59 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HUTTON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 220900
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
400 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE "MAY
LIKE" DURING THE AFTERNOON RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THERE WILL BE RATHER STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH
BASED WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE WARMEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THOUGH.
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE LIFTING EAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW WILL HAVE A SURFACE RESPONSE THAT WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT AND WITH AN UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY STRATUS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE WHAT THEY ARE THIS
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. DEW POINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF
MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. THE BASE OF A SMALL S/WV
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SATELLITE IMAGES DOE
SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
PRESSURES LOWER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST OR NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 51 73 58 / 0 10 20 40
GCK 80 50 72 58 / 0 10 20 30
EHA 83 54 78 59 / 10 10 30 30
LBL 83 54 75 60 / 10 10 30 30
HYS 74 47 71 56 / 0 10 20 40
P28 80 54 73 59 / 0 10 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...HUTTON
000
FXUS63 KTOP 220826
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THE
SLOW-MOVING NORTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM INCHES EASTWARD. A WEAK POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY WAS ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS IN
RECENT HOURS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT DRY
MID LEVELS. PERIODIC LOWER CLOUDS ALSO MAKING THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST
INTO KANSAS.
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...THOUGH
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LACKING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM AND IN DEEP BUT WEAK ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE. THE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY. SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
TONIGHT AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH
ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP FOG IN CHECK.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURS THRU SAT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
DAY OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.
FAR WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LATE NIGHT POPS
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA START TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE SENDS TRAILING PRECIP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND MAY
DEVELOP PRECIP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT ON THE HIGH
PLAINS. HAVE SPREAD POPS WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LLJ VEERS NE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AGAIN AND
BRINGS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WAVE PROPAGATES EAST SE THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE
AND AS PROGGED WOULD LINGER STORM CHANCES INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM REMAIN
AS THE LLJ INCREASES AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WOULD EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN NE KS.
SUN-TUES...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AND DIFFICULT TO
TIME AS SMALL ROUNDS OF SW ENERGY ROTATE NE OUT OF THE SWRN TROF.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE IN PLACE TO RESPOND TO THESE
WAVES...AS WELL AS NIGHTLY CYCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE PRECIP
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A RESULT. AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 80S FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LATEST OBS SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE CIGS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE 00Z OBJECTIVE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN PREV VFR FORECAST. THE RAP AND GFS SUGGEST
SOME DECENT MIXING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SFC WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING ABOVE 3 KFT.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...WOLTERS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 220821
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO TODAY PLACING THE FORECAST AREA
IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODEL THICKNESS PROGS SHOW A 60-90
METER RISE...AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 20 DEGREES CELSIUS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AKRON COLORADO TO SCOTT CITY KANSAS. WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY OF THIS WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORT/WAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE RIDGE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TONIGHT...AND DEPICTS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. THE NAM SHOWS NO WAVE AND IS DRY.
06Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA...BUT WITH
THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING...THINK SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. ALSO...
EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE. THE END RESULT...WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER NEBRASKA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
REALLY DO NOT VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z...AND SO MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TO APPROACH ZERO LATE TONIGHT.
THIS...COMBINED WITH EAST UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL PRODUCE SOME STRATUS/FOG.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS/FOG IN THE MORNING. ALSO...SURFACE HIGH WILL
ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. SO...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE 60S. THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STABLE
AIR MASS...SO EXPECT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED AT BEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
FINALLY ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT STRATUS AND
FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GFS IS ALSO DEVELOPING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN A WARM AIR
ADVECTION AREA ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THERE WILL BE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...AROUND 200 J/KG...BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION SOME CONVECTION.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...STRATUS/FOG WILL OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT WILL CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE
AFTER 18Z WITH PROGGED MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. A
DRY LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY. AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR AROUND 700 MB. EXPECT THE CAP TO
BREAK AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER INCREASES. THE
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS LENDS
BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH GFS IN PLACING UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT
COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT TIMING OF THESE IS DIFFICULT
THIS FAR OUT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EVOLVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DURING THEY DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER...WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DEVELOPING IN THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
000
FXUS63 KICT 220803
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER PLAINS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR AND SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...DOWNSTREAM
OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...TO THE NORTH OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
THE RICH 850 MB MOISTURE HAS BEEN SHUNTED WELL SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TX
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS A LONG WAY TO RETURN. SO NOT PLANNING TO GO
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR OUT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES 20-40% IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE INDICATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON ALL MODELS AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A HAIL
THREAT IF THE NAM WERE TO PROVE CORRECT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVECTION OCCURRING.
WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STILL RELATIVELY COOL...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WESTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. A LEE LOW AND DRYLINE WILL BE
SITUATED MAINLY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD. THE GULF WILL BE OPEN WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ON A DAILY BASIS...TYPICAL FOR LATE MAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS PATTERN. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK REASONABLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY FOR ANY
ACTIVITY COMING EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AT NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
AROUND 6-7 K FT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE INCREASING TO 15-20KT AFTER 15Z ON WED.
MWM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 78 54 74 58 / 0 10 20 30
HUTCHINSON 77 52 72 57 / 0 10 20 20
NEWTON 76 51 71 56 / 0 10 20 20
ELDORADO 76 53 73 56 / 0 10 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 79 56 74 58 / 0 10 30 30
RUSSELL 75 50 72 56 / 0 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 77 51 71 56 / 0 10 20 30
SALINA 74 50 73 56 / 0 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 76 51 72 56 / 0 10 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 76 55 75 57 / 0 10 20 20
CHANUTE 74 53 73 55 / 0 10 10 10
IOLA 74 52 73 54 / 0 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 54 74 57 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 220600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF FORECAST...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT,
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE, LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS CLOSE TO THE LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AT HAYS TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INTENSE HEATING AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
A SHOWER OR TWO TOWARDS 7 PM. EVENTUALLY THE LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PLAINS, BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK SINCE THE LEE TROUGH WILL TEND TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. DEW POINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF
MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. THE BASE OF A SMALL S/WV
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SATELLITE IMAGES DOE
SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.
SURFACE WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
PRESSURES LOWER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST OR NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 73 58 79 / 10 20 40 30
GCK 51 72 58 80 / 20 20 30 30
EHA 54 78 59 84 / 20 30 30 30
LBL 53 75 60 83 / 20 30 30 30
HYS 50 71 56 76 / 10 20 40 30
P28 54 73 59 77 / 10 20 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...HUTTON
000
FXUS63 KGLD 220526
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1126 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPORT NIL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 70S IN
THE SOUTHERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL HAVE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT AND
NEGATE THE LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SILENT POPS. ON THURSDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA PRODUCING A RATHER CLOUDY DAY. NO MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB AND NO
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW STABLE SHOWERS OR MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE A LULL TIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST. WARMER FRIDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST...LOW TO MID 80S WEST. LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN SETS
UP. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT MOVES FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DURING THEY DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RESULT. HOWEVER...WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DEVELOPING IN THE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
000
FXUS63 KTOP 220449 CCA
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AT LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS
STILL SHOWING BEST FORCING (Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION) REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION IN FAR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PARTS OF ANDERSON COUNTY THIS EVENING.
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE MID 50S IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WILL SWING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH PLAINS UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DRY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850MB TO PERSIST AND
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WHEN WEAK
THETA E/MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. SEASONABLY COOL LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL EDGE UP INTO THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
FRI THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO THE MO AND MS VALLEY AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO REMAIN ANCHORED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY DIRECT A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN CONUS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL
CONTINUE/REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE PASSAGE ANY OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FAR OUT IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING AND/OR AREAL EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION AND
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM POSSIBLE MCS`S
EACH DAY WOULD ONLY COMPLICATE THE FCST. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED A
BROAD AND GENERAL FCST ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LATEST OBS SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE CIGS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE 00Z OBJECTIVE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN PREV VFR FORECAST. THE RAP AND GFS SUGGEST
SOME DECENT MIXING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SFC WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING ABOVE 3 KFT.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WOLTERS
000
FXUS63 KTOP 220436
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AT LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS
STILL SHOWING BEST FORCING (Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION) REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION IN FAR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PARTS OF ANDERSON COUNTY THIS EVENING.
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE MID 50S IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WILL SWING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH PLAINS UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DRY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850MB TO PERSIST AND
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WHEN WEAK
THETA E/MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. SEASONABLY COOL LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL EDGE UP INTO THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
FRI THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO THE MO AND MS VALLEY AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO REMAIN ANCHORED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY DIRECT A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN CONUS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL
CONTINUE/REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE PASSAGE ANY OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FAR OUT IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING AND/OR AREAL EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION AND
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM POSSIBLE MCS`S
EACH DAY WOULD ONLY COMPLICATE THE FCST. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED A
BROAD AND GENERAL FCST ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
LATEST OBS SHOW SOME MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE CIGS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE 00Z OBJECTIVE MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN PREV IFR FORECAST. THE RAP AND GFS SUGGEST
SOME DECENT MIXING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SFC WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING ABOVE 3 KFT.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WOLTERS
000
FXUS63 KICT 220016
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
716 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY MORNING
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY:
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL PV
ANOMALY. ANY ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG OR PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THAT CHANCES
EXIST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS...KEEPING
WEDNESDAY DRY FOR KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MILD 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY:
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER. THE CONCERN IS FOR STORMS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH WITH THESE
CHANCES WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST INTO WEST OKLAHOMA. WILL
NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS THAT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED
TO IMPACT AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WEST KANSAS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL BE INDUCED AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON IN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE
ARE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS TO WHERE THE SURFACE
LOW SETS UP. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS CREATES
UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF COVERAGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S.
BILLINGS
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SUNDAY - TUESDAY:
THE LARGE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST WITH THE PLAINS IN WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BUT THE DISCREPANCIES MENTIONED EARLIER STILL REMAIN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THERE...BUT EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
ARE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BE POSSIBLE...THERE IS ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY...BUT BULK SHEAR IS LACKING WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING
SO FAR TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
BILLINGS
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
AROUND 6-7 K FT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE INCREASING TO 15-20KT AFTER 15Z ON WED.
MWM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 52 78 54 74 / 10 0 20 30
HUTCHINSON 51 77 52 72 / 10 0 20 30
NEWTON 50 76 51 71 / 10 0 20 20
ELDORADO 52 76 53 73 / 10 0 20 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 53 79 56 74 / 20 0 30 30
RUSSELL 48 75 50 72 / 10 0 20 20
GREAT BEND 49 77 51 71 / 10 0 20 20
SALINA 50 74 50 73 / 10 0 10 20
MCPHERSON 50 76 51 72 / 10 0 20 20
COFFEYVILLE 54 77 55 75 / 30 0 20 30
CHANUTE 53 76 53 73 / 20 0 20 20
IOLA 53 75 52 73 / 20 0 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 53 77 54 74 / 30 0 20 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 212347
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPORT NIL POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 70S IN
THE SOUTHERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL HAVE A BIT OF CONCERN FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SLIDES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT AND
NEGATE THE LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
SILENT POPS. ON THURSDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
AREA PRODUCING A RATHER CLOUDY DAY. NO MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB AND NO
INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW STABLE SHOWERS OR MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. AS THIS SYSTEM
EXITS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE A LULL TIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST
OR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS THURSDAY GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST. WARMER FRIDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST...LOW TO MID 80S WEST. LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...50S
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN SETS
UP. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DECREASE
EARLY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE ESE AT KGLD ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES E WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N IN KMCK ON
WEDNESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER KGLD WHILE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER KMCK WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART/ALW
000
FXUS63 KTOP 212326
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ENERGY ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AT LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS
STILL SHOWING BEST FORCING (Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION) REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION IN FAR
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PARTS OF ANDERSON COUNTY THIS EVENING.
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE MID 50S IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WILL SWING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS THE HIGH PLAINS UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE DRY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 850MB TO PERSIST AND
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND/OR INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WHEN WEAK
THETA E/MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. SEASONABLY COOL LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL EDGE UP INTO THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOP OUT IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.
FRI THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO THE MO AND MS VALLEY AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE WEST AND
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LEE SIDE SFC
TROUGH/LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO REMAIN ANCHORED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY DIRECT A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN CONUS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL
CONTINUE/REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO THE PASSAGE ANY OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FAR OUT IT REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT
TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING AND/OR AREAL EXTENT OF ANY CONVECTION AND
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM POSSIBLE MCS`S
EACH DAY WOULD ONLY COMPLICATE THE FCST. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED A
BROAD AND GENERAL FCST ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAFS IS WHETHER SOME MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2 AND 3
KFT MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GET INTO THE TERMINALS. IF IT DOES IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WITH RAP AND NAM RH PROGS JUST CLIPPING THE TERMINALS WITH THE
HIGHER RH...SO HAVE KEPT A VFR FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...WOLTERS
000
FXUS63 KDDC 212300
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT,
WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTIVE CLOUD WILL DISSIPATE, LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS CLOSE TO THE LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S AT HAYS TO BETWEEN 85 AND 90 IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. INTENSE HEATING AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
A SHOWER OR TWO TOWARDS 7 PM. EVENTUALLY THE LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE PLAINS, BUT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK SINCE THE LEE TROUGH WILL TEND TO STAY JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF
MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
COLD AIR ADVECTION INDUCED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS EXPECTED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PD. E/SE WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. MAGNITUDES THRU PD 8-12 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 45 84 51 73 / 0 0 10 20
GCK 44 84 51 72 / 0 0 20 20
EHA 49 89 54 78 / 0 10 20 30
LBL 47 90 53 75 / 0 10 20 30
HYS 44 77 50 71 / 0 0 10 20
P28 49 82 54 73 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...SUGDEN
| 
