[top]
000
FXUS63 KICT 211158
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
658 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS TODAY NEAR STALLED 850 FRONT...ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE 850 FRONT OUT OF
SOUTHEAST KS...LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH THE TRAILING END
OF THE FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE 850
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING INTO MAINLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS LOOKS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL
DURING THE PERIOD.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF WAS FLATTER WITH THE
PLAINS RIDGE AND ALLOWS A FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY CLOSER TO THE GFS
DURING THE PERIOD. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW RICH
GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK IMPULSES
TOPPING THE PLAINS RIDGE...AND WITH THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE TO OUR
WEST...WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE WEEKEND.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
EXCELLENT WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR ALL OF CNTRL...SC & SE KS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE 21/12Z EDITION AS BROAD...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS E
ACROSS THE MID-UPR MS VALLEY...ENABLING NW FLOW ~10KTS TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 75 53 77 55 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 75 51 77 53 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 74 51 76 52 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 75 52 77 53 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 76 53 79 56 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 73 48 75 50 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 73 49 76 51 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 74 51 76 51 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 74 51 76 52 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 76 54 79 56 / 30 10 10 10
CHANUTE 75 53 77 55 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 76 53 76 54 / 20 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 53 78 56 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ES
[top]
000
FXUS63 KTOP 211129
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
629 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
OBVIOUS UPPER WAVE TURNING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF KANSAS AT 08Z.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE AND ITS
IMPACT ON LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THOUGH SEVERAL SMALLER RESOLUTION MODELS BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. IF
THIS TAKES PLACE...WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT BY
LATE EVENING WITH STABILIZING CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT. THE STACKED SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST-SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ROTATING IN BEHIND.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WED-THURS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THINK WE WILL SEE ENOUGH INSOLATION AS CLOUDS MOVE EAST AT
LEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND HAVE MID 70S WEST WITH
60S IN THE NE WHERE CLOUDS ARE LATE TO PART. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
NW WITH LOWER 50S SE AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT.
MORE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S MOST AREAS. BY THURSDAY EVENING...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SW FLOW OVER THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MAY SEND SOME SHOWERS/TS INTO THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS LLJ INCREASES.
FRI/SAT...BOTH EC AND GFS SEND A LEAD WAVE AROUND THE WESTERN
TROF OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IN TURN HELPS
GET RETURN FLOW REESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME QPF
DEPICTED ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY DURING THE DAY BUT THINK COULD
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. GFS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE/CO BORDER
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND APPEARS
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS SHORTWAVES RIDE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. EC IS A BIT STRONGER
AND FASTER WITH THE WAVE...AS WELL AS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE BRINGS MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA. RETURN OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGS A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES BACK INTO THE 2000J/KG AND
GREATER RANGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER IS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH...WHERE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A BIT HIGHER.
CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST STORMS COULD FORM IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...AND WILL CARRY HIGHER POPS THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR SUCH.
SUN/MON FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CAN BECOME TO OUR WEST. IF GFS IS CORRECT THEN FRONTAL PATTERN
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE NEW EC KEEPS THE BOUNDARY
OVER KANSAS AND THEREFORE MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD.
WILL KEEP TREND OF DAILY POPS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
OVERNIGHT WHEN LLJ COMES INTO PLAY. 67
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. WEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. SCATTERED CUMULUS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE 18Z-23Z PERIOD BUT WILL BE WELL ABOVE 3000FT.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
[top]
000
FXUS63 KGLD 211123
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TODAY...AND WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. EVEN WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THE AIR MASS WILL BE
DRY AND INCREASINGLY STABLE ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE AIDED BY DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 850/700 MB TO PRODUCE WINDS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...20 TO 35 KNOTS.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
CONTINUED DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DEVELOPS
SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE...HOWEVER...
AND EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...AND MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN...WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE IMPLIED LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FRIDAY. IN
RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TRAJECTORIES
FAVOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR BY THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST WEST WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
UPPER LOW AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD PLACING
ITS AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND
GEM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE POSITION OF BOTH FEATURES KEEPING
OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EMBEDDED DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY 15-25 KNOTS AT KGLD. WITH DECENT MIXING
AND MODERATE WINDS ALOFT...WILL INDICATE 20-35 KNOT WINDS AT
KGLD/KMCK AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
MOVE OVER BOTH SITES...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...MENTZER
[top]
000
FXUS63 KDDC 211103
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
603 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WAS DOMINATED
BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE, A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
CENTERED IN SASKATCHEWAN. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 50KTS AT H5 PREVAILED FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COVERED THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -16C
ACROSS A WIDE AREA. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, AND CONSIDERABLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE REGION OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EAST
OF THE TROUGH COVERED EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A MINOR TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT
00Z, AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 04Z. AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS
AND RISING PRESSURES WAS EVIDENT BEHIND THE SUBTLE BOUNDARY. VERY
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COVERED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS, AND A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WAS EVIDENT
IN THE MID LEVELS FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC, A DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS NEAR 175W WAS FEEDING WARM AIR NORTH INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NEAR 150W, AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NEAR 130W WAS DIGGING
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF
MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, FAIRLY
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE NOSES
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DRIFTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY AS A STRONG CLOSED OFF LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL OPEN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT,
INCLUDING INCREASING DIVERGENCE FIELDS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP INFLUENCE
AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS WHILE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CREATING
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTS BACK INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VARIES LITTLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY COOLER AIR IN PLACE
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE 80S(F)
IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST USHERING SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, THIS
BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. AS FOR WINDS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AS A
RESULT, LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO AROUND 15 TO
25KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES FURTHER INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 45 81 52 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 74 44 82 52 / 10 0 0 20
EHA 76 49 84 55 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 78 47 84 54 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 72 44 76 51 / 10 0 0 10
P28 77 49 82 55 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KDDC 210907
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WAS DOMINATED
BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE, A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
CENTERED IN SASKATCHEWAN. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 50KTS AT H5 PREVAILED FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COVERED THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -16C
ACROSS A WIDE AREA. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, AND CONSIDERABLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE REGION OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EAST
OF THE TROUGH COVERED EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A MINOR TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT
00Z, AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 04Z. AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS
AND RISING PRESSURES WAS EVIDENT BEHIND THE SUBTLE BOUNDARY. VERY
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COVERED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS, AND A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WAS EVIDENT
IN THE MID LEVELS FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC, A DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS NEAR 175W WAS FEEDING WARM AIR NORTH INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NEAR 150W, AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NEAR 130W WAS DIGGING
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF
MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, FAIRLY
DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET CORE NOSES
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DRIFTING OFF
THE FRONT RANGE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY AS A STRONG CLOSED OFF LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL OPEN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INCREASING DYNAMIC SUPPORT,
INCLUDING INCREASING DIVERGENCE FIELDS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL HELP INFLUENCE
AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS WHILE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CREATING
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTS BACK INTO THE REGION WITHIN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
INCLUDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN VARIES LITTLE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
RATHER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY COOLER AIR IN PLACE
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE 80S(F)
IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST USHERING SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, THIS
BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY THIS EVENING, AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN UTAH WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY SUNSET. SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA 120 WITH OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS AOA 200 NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING, SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 080 WILL DEVELOP
AROUND 19Z. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 45 81 52 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 74 45 82 52 / 10 0 0 20
EHA 76 47 84 55 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 78 47 84 54 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 72 45 76 51 / 10 0 0 10
P28 77 49 82 55 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUTHI
000
FXUS63 KTOP 210838
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
OBVIOUS UPPER WAVE TURNING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS JUST EAST OF KANSAS AT 08Z.
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE AND ITS
IMPACT ON LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BEST POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...THOUGH SEVERAL SMALLER RESOLUTION MODELS BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. IF
THIS TAKES PLACE...WEAK INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT BY
LATE EVENING WITH STABILIZING CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY
NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY
BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT. THE STACKED SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST-SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ROTATING IN BEHIND.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WED-THURS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING TROF ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THINK WE WILL SEE ENOUGH INSOLATION AS CLOUDS MOVE EAST AT
LEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND HAVE MID 70S WEST WITH
60S IN THE NE WHERE CLOUDS ARE LATE TO PART. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
NW WITH LOWER 50S SE AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT.
MORE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY SHOULD BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S MOST AREAS. BY THURSDAY EVENING...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH SW FLOW OVER THE
FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...MAY SEND SOME SHOWERS/TS INTO THE
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS LLJ INCREASES.
FRI/SAT...BOTH EC AND GFS SEND A LEAD WAVE AROUND THE WESTERN
TROF OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...WHICH IN TURN HELPS
GET RETURN FLOW REESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOME QPF
DEPICTED ACROSS THE FA FOR FRIDAY DURING THE DAY BUT THINK COULD
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. GFS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NE/CO BORDER
WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA...AND APPEARS
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS SHORTWAVES RIDE
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. EC IS A BIT STRONGER
AND FASTER WITH THE WAVE...AS WELL AS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE BRINGS MORE PRECIP INTO OUR
AREA. RETURN OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGS A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES BACK INTO THE 2000J/KG AND
GREATER RANGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT HOWEVER IS
STRONGER TO THE NORTH...WHERE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE A BIT HIGHER.
CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST STORMS COULD FORM IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...AND WILL CARRY HIGHER POPS THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR SUCH.
SUN/MON FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CAN BECOME TO OUR WEST. IF GFS IS CORRECT THEN FRONTAL PATTERN
SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE NEW EC KEEPS THE BOUNDARY
OVER KANSAS AND THEREFORE MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS PERIOD.
WILL KEEP TREND OF DAILY POPS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
OVERNIGHT WHEN LLJ COMES INTO PLAY. 67
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY FINALLY PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST. A BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
FAR EASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT KMHK HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE
WEST THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT WINDS AT KTOP AND KFOE TO VEER AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THAT
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE SITES. SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...HENNECKE
000
FXUS63 KGLD 210823
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TODAY...AND WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A WEAK
VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY. EVEN WITH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...THE AIR MASS WILL BE
DRY AND INCREASINGLY STABLE ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE AIDED BY DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW
AT 850/700 MB TO PRODUCE WINDS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...20 TO 35 KNOTS.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
CONTINUED DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DEVELOPS
SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN A WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL BE STABLE...HOWEVER...
AND EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THURSDAY...AND MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STABLE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SLOW TO RETURN...WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE IMPLIED LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FRIDAY. IN
RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TRAJECTORIES
FAVOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR BY THE
WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS FURTHEST WEST WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
UPPER LOW AND RETROGRADES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD PLACING
ITS AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND
GEM ARE FURTHER EAST WITH THE POSITION OF BOTH FEATURES KEEPING
OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DURING THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE WILL DEPEND
ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF EMBEDDED DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT
15-25KT WINDS AFTER 13Z INCREASING TO 25-35KTS AFTER 17Z. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS BACK DOWN TO
15-25KTS AFTER 02Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...LOCKHART
000
FXUS63 KICT 210758
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KS TODAY NEAR STALLED 850 FRONT...ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH THE 850 FRONT OUT OF
SOUTHEAST KS...LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS...WITH THE TRAILING END
OF THE FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THE 850
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
SPREADING INTO MAINLY OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS LOOKS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL
DURING THE PERIOD.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF WAS FLATTER WITH THE
PLAINS RIDGE AND ALLOWS A FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY CLOSER TO THE GFS
DURING THE PERIOD. LEE TROUGHING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW RICH
GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF WEAK IMPULSES
TOPPING THE PLAINS RIDGE...AND WITH THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE TO OUR
WEST...WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF PERIODIC CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE WEEKEND.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER WHICH HAS PROMPTED VCTS TO REMAIN IN THE
TAF FOR KCNU UNTIL 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS MEANDERING IN TONIGHT.
OVERALL A VERY QUIET TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTHWEST AND HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW SITES TO INDICATE THIS TRANSITION.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
VP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 75 53 77 55 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 75 51 77 53 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 74 51 76 52 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 75 52 77 53 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 76 53 79 56 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 73 48 75 50 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 73 49 76 51 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 74 51 76 51 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 74 51 76 52 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 76 54 79 56 / 30 10 10 10
CHANUTE 75 53 77 55 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 76 53 76 54 / 20 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 76 53 78 56 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 210708
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
208 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WAS DOMINATED
BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE, A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
CENTERED IN SASKATCHEWAN. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 50KTS AT H5 PREVAILED FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COVERED THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -16C
ACROSS A WIDE AREA. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, AND CONSIDERABLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE REGION OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EAST
OF THE TROUGH COVERED EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A MINOR TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT
00Z, AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 04Z. AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS
AND RISING PRESSURES WAS EVIDENT BEHIND THE SUBTLE BOUNDARY. VERY
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COVERED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS, AND A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WAS EVIDENT
IN THE MID LEVELS FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC, A DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS NEAR 175W WAS FEEDING WARM AIR NORTH INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NEAR 150W, AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NEAR 130W WAS DIGGING
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT
H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY
ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH
BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN
UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR
TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A
LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO
JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF
MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THE MIDWEST
LOW IS PROGGED TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WHICH HELPS LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE BE TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL BE REINFORCED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS PATTERN COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
ALLBLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE MODELS MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY THEN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A DRYLINE ALONG THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS HAS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IN TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE PANHANDLES. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH ONE
WILL BE RIGHT BUT TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY THIS EVENING, AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN UTAH WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY SUNSET. SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA 120 WITH OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS AOA 200 NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING, SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 080 WILL DEVELOP
AROUND 19Z. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 49 81 52 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 75 47 82 52 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 77 48 84 55 / 10 10 20 20
LBL 79 49 84 54 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 74 48 76 51 / 10 10 10 10
P28 78 52 82 55 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...RUTHI
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUTHI
000
FXUS63 KDDC 210617
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION AND SYNOPSIS SECTIONS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WAS DOMINATED
BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE, A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS
CENTERED IN SASKATCHEWAN. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 50KTS AT H5 PREVAILED FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT COVERED THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -16C
ACROSS A WIDE AREA. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, AND CONSIDERABLE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE REGION OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION EAST
OF THE TROUGH COVERED EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A MINOR TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO AT
00Z, AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AT 04Z. AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS
AND RISING PRESSURES WAS EVIDENT BEHIND THE SUBTLE BOUNDARY. VERY
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COVERED THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS, AND A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WAS EVIDENT
IN THE MID LEVELS FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC, A DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS NEAR 175W WAS FEEDING WARM AIR NORTH INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE NEAR 150W, AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH NEAR 130W WAS DIGGING
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, DAYTIME
HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST OF DODGE CITY TO
THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BEING TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING, THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH AND END THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTREMITY OF
THE LARGER TROUGH ON TUESDAY. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER, SO ONLY SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S BASED ON THE NAM AND ECMWF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THE MIDWEST
LOW IS PROGGED TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WHICH HELPS LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE BE TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL BE REINFORCED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS PATTERN COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
ALLBLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE MODELS MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY THEN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A DRYLINE ALONG THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS HAS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IN TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE PANHANDLES. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH ONE
WILL BE RIGHT BUT TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY, AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
BY THIS EVENING, AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN UTAH WILL EXTEND
FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY SUNSET. SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA 120 WITH OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS AOA 200 NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING, SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES NEAR 080 WILL DEVELOP
AROUND 19Z. THE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 49 81 52 73 / 10 10 10 30
GCK 47 82 52 71 / 10 10 20 30
EHA 48 84 55 80 / 10 20 20 20
LBL 49 84 54 77 / 10 10 20 30
HYS 48 76 51 75 / 10 10 10 30
P28 52 82 55 73 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RUTHI
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUTHI
000
FXUS63 KGLD 210529
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA SINCE MOST SHOWERS WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY.
HOWEVER SOME DYNAMICS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN FA TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON NIL POPS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE FA AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ADEQUATE FOR
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. PRECIPITATION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...COOLING THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS DISCUSSIONS.
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT
15-25KT WINDS AFTER 13Z INCREASING TO 25-35KTS AFTER 17Z. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS BACK DOWN TO
15-25KTS AFTER 02Z TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
000
FXUS63 KICT 210433
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN SD WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER JET MAX EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN MO THROUGH SOUTHERN KS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SE KS FROM WEST OF KCNU TO EAST
OF KWLD. IN THE UNCAPPED VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE DEPLETING AND HAVE DIMINISHED THEM TO
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WHERE THERE IS SOME CONVECTION REMAINING
ALONG THE BORDERS. CURRENT OBS WERE LOADED AND BLENDED WITH THE
FORECAST TO REPRESENT THE IMPACTS THAT THE SHOWERS MADE ON
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE MONITORING THE FLOODING
SITUATION WITH THE EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION.
VP
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RAINS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING. THEREFORE RAN WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE KS
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER SE KS WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN CAPE NEAR 3000J/KG AND 0-6KM IN THE 50-60KT
RANGE. WE ACTUALLY HAVE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN WE HAD
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL. BY SUNRISE
TUE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WASHES OUT AS
IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. FOR TUE ONLY THE FAR SE CORNER WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE TEMPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
TUE AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS-IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE WED AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA PROVIDING
COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THU AS BETTER MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH GULF
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE THROUGH THESE DAYS.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDER WHICH HAS PROMPTED VCTS TO REMAIN IN THE
TAF FOR KCNU UNTIL 12Z. HIGH PRESSURE IS MEANDERING IN TONIGHT.
OVERALL A VERY QUIET TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NORTHWEST AND HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW SITES TO INDICATE THIS TRANSITION.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
VP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 75 53 76 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 53 74 51 76 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 53 74 51 75 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 54 75 52 76 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 76 53 78 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 49 72 48 74 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 50 72 49 75 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 51 74 51 75 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 52 74 51 75 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 60 76 54 78 / 80 30 10 10
CHANUTE 60 75 53 76 / 60 20 10 10
IOLA 60 76 53 75 / 60 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 60 76 53 77 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 210012
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
712 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN SD WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER JET MAX EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN MO THROUGH SOUTHERN KS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SE KS FROM WEST OF KCNU TO EAST
OF KWLD. IN THE UNCAPPED VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE DEPLETING AND HAVE DIMINISHED THEM TO
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WHERE THERE IS SOME CONVECTION REMAINING
ALONG THE BORDERS. CURRENT OBS WERE LOADED AND BLENDED WITH THE
FORECAST TO REPRESENT THE IMPACTS THAT THE SHOWERS MADE ON
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE MONITORING THE FLOODING
SITUATION WITH THE EXIT OF THE PRECIPITATION.
VP
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RAINS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING. THEREFORE RAN WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE KS
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER SE KS WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN CAPE NEAR 3000J/KG AND 0-6KM IN THE 50-60KT
RANGE. WE ACTUALLY HAVE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN WE HAD
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL. BY SUNRISE
TUE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WASHES OUT AS
IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. FOR TUE ONLY THE FAR SE CORNER WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE TEMPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
TUE AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS-IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE WED AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA PROVIDING
COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THU AS BETTER MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH GULF
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE THROUGH THESE DAYS.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MAIN FOCUS IS THE EXITING PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS THUS
ONLY IMPACTING KCNU. KEPT IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS FOR ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10KTS AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES
AFTER 06Z.
VP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 75 53 76 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 53 74 51 76 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 53 74 51 75 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 54 75 52 76 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 76 53 78 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 49 72 48 74 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 50 72 49 75 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 51 74 51 75 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 52 74 51 75 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 60 76 54 78 / 80 30 10 10
CHANUTE 60 75 53 76 / 60 20 10 10
IOLA 60 76 53 75 / 60 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 60 76 53 77 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-
098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 210007
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
607 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA SINCE MOST SHOWERS WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY.
HOWEVER SOME DYNAMICS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN FA TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON NIL POPS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE FA AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ADEQUATE FOR
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. PRECIPITATION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...COOLING THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS DISCUSSIONS.
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH OCCASIONALLY MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z AT MCK AS A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 02Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 14Z
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
000
FXUS63 KTOP 202314
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWS A COUPLE OF FRONTS IN AND NEAR OUR
CWA. FIRST IS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE OTHER
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHERN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTH OF I-35. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ALONG BOTH OF
THE BOUNDARIES WITH THE STRONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 100 TO 120 M2/S2 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS ARE BACKED SLIGHTLY IN THE
LOW LEVELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35 THROUGH MID EVENING.
HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS WILL BE
COUPLED WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH EVENING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-35. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
AS THE COOL FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SAVE THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. BEST FORCING
WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY FROM OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LAST SHORTWAVE LOBE ON THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST TUESDAY NIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL
INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN AT THAT TIME AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND INTO THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS TRENDS ARE
HINTING THAT AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAY FORCE THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH IT. EITHER WAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM MAINLY THE
70S WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST OF THE
AREA. WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TAF SITES...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO OUT
OF THE WEST AND WEST SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THIS LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TO
PERSIST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED LOW/MID
CLOUDS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...HENNECKE
000
FXUS63 KDDC 202309
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
609 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, DAYTIME
HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST OF DODGE CITY TO
THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BEING TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING, THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH AND END THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTREMITY OF
THE LARGER TROUGH ON TUESDAY. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER, SO ONLY SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S BASED ON THE NAM AND ECMWF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THE MIDWEST
LOW IS PROGGED TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WHICH HELPS LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE BE TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL BE REINFORCED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS PATTERN COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
ALLBLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE MODELS MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY THEN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A DRYLINE ALONG THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS HAS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IN TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE PANHANDLES. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH ONE
WILL BE RIGHT BUT TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST OF ALL TAF
SITES BY SUNSET. VRF CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BUILDS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10KTS OR
LESS OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW
MIXING IMPROVES MID TO LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 78 49 81 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 45 75 47 82 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 43 77 48 84 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 46 79 49 84 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 48 74 48 76 / 10 10 10 10
P28 50 78 52 82 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...BURGERT
000
FXUS63 KDDC 202058
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
358 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, DAYTIME
HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST OF DODGE CITY TO
THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BEING TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING, THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH AND END THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTREMITY OF
THE LARGER TROUGH ON TUESDAY. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER, SO ONLY SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S BASED ON THE NAM AND ECMWF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THE MIDWEST
LOW IS PROGGED TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WHICH HELPS LIFT IT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST CANADA BY THIS WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE BE TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL BE REINFORCED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS PATTERN COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE
ALLBLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST INTACT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE MODELS MOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN BY THEN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND A DRYLINE ALONG THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GFS HAS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IN TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE PANHANDLES. OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH ONE
WILL BE RIGHT BUT TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION GIVEN THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WILL GENERALLLY PERSIST
AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND WILL DIE OFF
AFTER 00Z. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AOA080.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 78 49 81 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 45 75 47 82 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 43 77 48 84 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 46 79 49 84 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 48 74 48 76 / 10 10 10 10
P28 50 78 52 82 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH
000
FXUS63 KTOP 202053
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LATEST MESO ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWS A COUPLE OF FRONTS IN AND NEAR OUR
CWA. FIRST IS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE OTHER
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR SOUTHERN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS SOUTH OF I-35. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED ALONG BOTH OF
THE BOUNDARIES WITH THE STRONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 100 TO 120 M2/S2 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS ARE BACKED SLIGHTLY IN THE
LOW LEVELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-35 THROUGH MID EVENING.
HRRR AND RAP DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS WILL BE
COUPLED WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH EVENING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-35. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT
AS THE COOL FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SAVE THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. BEST FORCING
WILL BE FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH TUESDAY FROM OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
LAST SHORTWAVE LOBE ON THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST TUESDAY NIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE
PLACE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL
INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN AT THAT TIME AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND INTO THE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS WARRANTS KEEPING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MODELS TRENDS ARE
HINTING THAT AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAY FORCE THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH IT. EITHER WAY...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM MAINLY THE
70S WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCTS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE MAIN CONVECTION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 04Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53
000
FXUS63 KDDC 202052
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EVEN BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, DAYTIME
HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEST OF DODGE CITY TO
THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BEING TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING, THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH AND END THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S IN FAR WESTERN
KANSAS.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MERGE WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTREMITY OF
THE LARGER TROUGH ON TUESDAY. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE EVEN LOWER, SO ONLY SOME
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S BASED ON THE NAM AND ECMWF.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY COLD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. A
MINOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC,
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE DATELINE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD HEIGHTS NEAR 150W, AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE NORTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA FINALLY WILL EJECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE, AND RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. COOL AIR WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES,
AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID WEEK. FALLING PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
ANOTHER CLUSTER FORMING IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THE COLORADO CLUSTER SHOULD RIPPLE DOWN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ANOTHER CLUSTER PROBABLY WILL FORM A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WARM SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER, AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS WILL
SHIFT THE FAVORED AREA FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FARTHER
NORTH.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS PROMINENT IN THE INDIAN
OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS, BUT THE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ASIA ACROSS
JAPAN INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC TODAY. THIS STRONG JET WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF MAY,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE. SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME HIGH
BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL TO
NONEXISTENT. AS SUCH, THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS MINIMAL,
AND THE LOW POPS NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WERE REMOVED. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE QUIET IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD CLIP SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH H8 DEWPOINTS
ABOVE 10 C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION, AND POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
SATURDAY, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PROGRESS TO NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER, AND MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WILL GENERALLLY PERSIST
AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND WILL DIE OFF
AFTER 00Z. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AOA080.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 46 78 49 81 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 45 75 47 82 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 43 77 48 84 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 46 79 49 84 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 48 74 48 76 / 10 10 10 10
P28 50 78 52 82 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...FINCH
000
FXUS63 KGLD 202001
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND A RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE APPROPRIATE IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA SINCE MOST SHOWERS WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE USED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF. SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TUESDAY.
HOWEVER SOME DYNAMICS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN FA TUESDAY
MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON NIL POPS WILL COVER THE ENTIRE FA AS
THE UPPER LOW LIFTS FURTHER NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN
TO NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT ADEQUATE FOR
AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. PRECIPITATION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...COOLING THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS DISCUSSIONS.
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH SHOWERS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WIND WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
000
FXUS63 KICT 201927
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
227 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN SD WITH THE TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER JET MAX EXTENDS
FROM WESTERN MO THROUGH SOUTHERN KS. AT THE SURFACE...THE
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH SE KS FROM WEST OF KCNU TO EAST
OF KWLD. IN THE UNCAPPED VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RAINS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING. THEREFORE RAN WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE KS
INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER SE KS WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF
BECOMING SEVERE GIVEN CAPE NEAR 3000J/KG AND 0-6KM IN THE 50-60KT
RANGE. WE ACTUALLY HAVE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAN WE HAD
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL. BY SUNRISE
TUE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WASHES OUT AS
IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. FOR TUE ONLY THE FAR SE CORNER WILL MAINTAIN
SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES.
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE TEMPS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR
TUE AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS-IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS CLOSE TO OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BE ON THE MOVE WED AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA PROVIDING
COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THU AS BETTER MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK
OF THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW ON SHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW RICH GULF
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
WEAK UPPER IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE THROUGH THESE DAYS.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2263
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A
TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED AT KCNU WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF STORM
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 75 53 76 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 52 74 51 76 / 20 10 10 10
NEWTON 53 74 51 75 / 20 10 10 10
ELDORADO 54 75 52 76 / 40 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 76 53 78 / 50 10 10 10
RUSSELL 49 72 48 74 / 20 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 50 73 49 75 / 20 10 10 10
SALINA 51 74 51 75 / 20 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 52 74 51 75 / 20 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 60 76 54 78 / 70 50 10 10
CHANUTE 59 76 53 76 / 70 30 10 10
IOLA 60 76 53 75 / 60 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 60 76 53 77 / 70 40 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ071-072-094>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201911
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. PRECIPITATION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...COOLING THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND CLOUDS INCREASE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS DISCUSSIONS.
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH SHOWERS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WIND WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
000
FXUS63 KTOP 201805
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
105 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
PHASING PAIR OF UPPER LOWS CONTINUE TO MERGE AND SPIN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ROTATING PIECES OF ENERGY AROUND ALL QUADS AS IT
DOES SO. 80-100KT UPPER JET MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES ATTM. SFC PRESSURE PLOT IS
MORE DIFFUSE OVER EASTERN KS ATTM...AS CONVECTION HAS SENT OUTFLOW
OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. MORE CONSISTENT NW WIND FRONTAL PATTERN
SHOWS UP OVER SE NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING CONVECTION. SATELLITE TRENDS DO SUGGEST CLEARING BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS ROUND WHICH WOULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE DAY. NAM SURFACE PATTERN BEGINS TO SUGGEST AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP AROUND 18Z OVER THE I35 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN KS...ALSO
BRINGING THE UPPER JET OVER THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME BEFORE A
SHARP BOUNDARY HAS A CHANCE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. STILL HAVE
RESPECTABLE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS...WITH MU CAPE VALUES FROM
MHK WESTWARD OF 1500-2500K/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAP ERODES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON WHEN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS ARE IN THE 50KT RANGE. PRIMARY CONCERNS WOULD BE FOR HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SET UP...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS BETTER BACKING WILL
BE IN THE FAR SE OR EVEN FURTHER SE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ALSO THINK STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE INTO SE KS/SW MO AND
OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BETTER AND JET DYNAMICS MORE
FAVORABLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE SETS UP
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE PAINTED AN AREA ACROSS
THE SE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAY SEE SOME STORMS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES
INTO THAT AREA...BUT DO NOT THINK THOSE STORMS WOULD BE SEVERE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PUSH SE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES NW TO SE. LOWS
DROP INTO THE 50S AS STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. BY THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SW
US BEGINS SENDING SHORTWAVE TROFS INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...OVER THE BOUNDARY RESIDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
BRINGS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT RAIN ALL DAY EVERY DAY DO ANTICIPATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARD 80 BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDED VCTS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE MAIN CONVECTION TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 04Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
000
FXUS63 KDDC 201800
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THE
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, YET STILL CLIMB
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IN
PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE, ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, THIS WILL CREATE A ZONE OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEST-NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COMBINED WITH
THE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES
TO ENFORCE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TO MID DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH CAPE VALUES UP NEAR 500 J/KG, A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
WITH POOR SHEAR PROFILES AND THE LOWER INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HELPS DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 15C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F)
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOWER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY COLD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. A
MINOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC,
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE DATELINE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD HEIGHTS NEAR 150W, AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE NORTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA FINALLY WILL EJECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE, AND RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. COOL AIR WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES,
AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID WEEK. FALLING PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
ANOTHER CLUSTER FORMING IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THE COLORADO CLUSTER SHOULD RIPPLE DOWN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ANOTHER CLUSTER PROBABLY WILL FORM A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WARM SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER, AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS WILL
SHIFT THE FAVORED AREA FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FARTHER
NORTH.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS PROMINENT IN THE INDIAN
OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS, BUT THE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ASIA ACROSS
JAPAN INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC TODAY. THIS STRONG JET WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF MAY,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE. SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME HIGH
BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL TO
NONEXISTENT. AS SUCH, THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS MINIMAL,
AND THE LOW POPS NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WERE REMOVED. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE QUIET IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD CLIP SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH H8 DEWPOINTS
ABOVE 10 C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION, AND POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
SATURDAY, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PROGRESS TO NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER, AND MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WILL GENERALLLY PERSIST
AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY AND WILL DIE OFF
AFTER 00Z. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AOA080.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 46 76 49 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 76 45 75 47 / 20 20 10 10
EHA 75 42 79 48 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 77 46 79 49 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 77 47 74 48 / 20 20 10 10
P28 80 50 79 52 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...FINCH
000
FXUS63 KICT 201725
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
TSRA CLUSTER HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER SE KS FROM SRN WILSON TO
EXTREME NE COWLEY COUNTY. THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. AS SUCH HAVE FINE-TUNED
POPS/WX/QPF TO ADDRESS THIS FACET OF THE INHERITED FORECAST I.E.
TO CHANGE WX DESCRIPTOR TO "SCT". REMAINDER OF INHERITED FORECAST
IS UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
FOCUS WILL BE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MID-
UPPER JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF
50-65 KT IN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN STRONG ENOUGH INSOLATION
OCCURS...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LESSER
THAN SUNDAY PM/EVE...WITH HELICITY AND OTHER TORNADO PARAMETERS
PROGGED TO BE HIGHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL
TARGET SOUTHWEST MO INTO EASTERN OK...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST
KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KS...WITH A HIGHER THREAT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. STORM MERGERS
AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE WEATHER
TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END IN THE SOUTHEAST LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT PUSH EAST.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MID-UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO MOVE
EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH
OUT WEST BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD. GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES APPEAR
ON TRACK.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A
TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED AT KCNU WHERE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF STORM
IMPACT IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 82 55 77 55 / 20 20 10 10
HUTCHINSON 80 53 76 54 / 20 20 10 10
NEWTON 81 54 76 54 / 20 20 10 10
ELDORADO 82 55 77 55 / 40 40 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 84 58 78 55 / 50 50 10 10
RUSSELL 78 50 73 52 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 78 51 74 53 / 20 20 10 10
SALINA 79 53 75 52 / 20 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 80 53 76 53 / 20 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 82 65 79 57 / 70 70 50 10
CHANUTE 82 62 78 56 / 70 70 30 10
IOLA 82 62 78 56 / 60 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 82 63 78 57 / 70 70 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201717
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1117 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION WILL NOT
OCCUR BELOW 600 MB BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER 18Z. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT A MASSIVE WARM/UP.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AS DAKOTA LOW EJECTS EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AS SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AS AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND BEGINS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER.
SURFACE THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FAVOR NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING/SHARPENING OF LEE SIDE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THESE WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA AND NECESSITATE DAILY
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVEN BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH SHOWERS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WIND WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...FS
000
FXUS63 KICT 201232
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
732 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
TSRA CLUSTER HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER SE KS FROM SRN WILSON TO
EXTREME NE COWLEY COUNTY. THE STRONGEST CELLS ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. AS SUCH HAVE FINE-TUNED
POPS/WX/QPF TO ADDRESS THIS FACET OF THE INHERITED FORECAST I.E.
TO CHANGE WX DESCRIPTOR TO "SCT". REMAINDER OF INHERITED FORECAST
IS UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
FOCUS WILL BE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MID-
UPPER JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF
50-65 KT IN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN STRONG ENOUGH INSOLATION
OCCURS...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LESSER
THAN SUNDAY PM/EVE...WITH HELICITY AND OTHER TORNADO PARAMETERS
PROGGED TO BE HIGHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL
TARGET SOUTHWEST MO INTO EASTERN OK...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST
KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KS...WITH A HIGHER THREAT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. STORM MERGERS
AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE WEATHER
TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END IN THE SOUTHEAST LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT PUSH EAST.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MID-UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO MOVE
EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH
OUT WEST BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD. GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES APPEAR
ON TRACK.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SCT TSRA HAVE QUICKLY REDEVELOPED OVER SE KS ALONG ELEVATED FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NE KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. THE CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED
FROM SE GREENWOOD TO NW ELK COUNTY & IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE GOLFBALL
SIZE HAIL AS IT EXPANDS FURTHER ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE MORNING.
THE CLUSTER POSES GREATEST RISK TO KCNU & WILL HAVE TO UPDATE THIS
TAF TO ASSIGN "VCTS" TIL ~17Z. STILL ANTICIPATE STG-SVR TSRA TO
FURTHER DEVELOP OVER PRIMARILY SE KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THIS EVENING. THE OTHER 4 TAFS TO MAINTAIN VFR
STATUS FOR DURATION OF 20/12Z EDITION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 82 55 77 55 / 20 20 10 10
HUTCHINSON 80 53 76 54 / 20 20 10 10
NEWTON 81 54 76 54 / 20 20 10 10
ELDORADO 82 55 77 55 / 30 30 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 84 58 78 55 / 40 40 10 10
RUSSELL 78 50 73 52 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 78 51 74 53 / 20 20 10 10
SALINA 79 53 75 52 / 20 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 80 53 76 53 / 20 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 82 65 79 57 / 80 80 50 10
CHANUTE 82 62 78 56 / 60 70 30 10
IOLA 82 62 78 56 / 50 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 82 63 78 57 / 70 80 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ES
000
FXUS63 KDDC 201154
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
654 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THE
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, YET STILL CLIMB
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IN
PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE, ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, THIS WILL CREATE A ZONE OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEST-NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COMBINED WITH
THE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES
TO ENFORCE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TO MID DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH CAPE VALUES UP NEAR 500 J/KG, A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
WITH POOR SHEAR PROFILES AND THE LOWER INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HELPS DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 15C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F)
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOWER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY COLD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. A
MINOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC,
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE DATELINE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD HEIGHTS NEAR 150W, AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE NORTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA FINALLY WILL EJECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE, AND RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. COOL AIR WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES,
AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID WEEK. FALLING PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
ANOTHER CLUSTER FORMING IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THE COLORADO CLUSTER SHOULD RIPPLE DOWN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ANOTHER CLUSTER PROBABLY WILL FORM A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WARM SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER, AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS WILL
SHIFT THE FAVORED AREA FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FARTHER
NORTH.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS PROMINENT IN THE INDIAN
OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS, BUT THE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ASIA ACROSS
JAPAN INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC TODAY. THIS STRONG JET WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF MAY,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE. SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME HIGH
BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL TO
NONEXISTENT. AS SUCH, THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS MINIMAL,
AND THE LOW POPS NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WERE REMOVED. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE QUIET IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD CLIP SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH H8 DEWPOINTS
ABOVE 10 C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION, AND POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
SATURDAY, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PROGRESS TO NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER, AND MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDINESS AOA 080. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH BASES
AROUND 080 AFTER 19Z. LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40KT MAY OCCUR
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 48 77 49 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 76 47 75 47 / 20 20 10 10
EHA 75 47 77 48 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 77 47 78 49 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 77 47 73 48 / 20 20 10 10
P28 80 52 79 52 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...RUTHI
000
FXUS63 KTOP 201142
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
PHASING PAIR OF UPPER LOWS CONTINUE TO MERGE AND SPIN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ROTATING PIECES OF ENERGY AROUND ALL QUADS AS IT
DOES SO. 80-100KT UPPER JET MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES ATTM. SFC PRESSURE PLOT IS
MORE DIFFUSE OVER EASTERN KS ATTM...AS CONVECTION HAS SENT OUTFLOW
OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. MORE CONSISTENT NW WIND FRONTAL PATTERN
SHOWS UP OVER SE NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING CONVECTION. SATELLITE TRENDS DO SUGGEST CLEARING BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS ROUND WHICH WOULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE DAY. NAM SURFACE PATTERN BEGINS TO SUGGEST AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP AROUND 18Z OVER THE I35 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN KS...ALSO
BRINGING THE UPPER JET OVER THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME BEFORE A
SHARP BOUNDARY HAS A CHANCE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. STILL HAVE
RESPECTABLE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS...WITH MU CAPE VALUES FROM
MHK WESTWARD OF 1500-2500K/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAP ERODES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON WHEN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS ARE IN THE 50KT RANGE. PRIMARY CONCERNS WOULD BE FOR HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SET UP...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS BETTER BACKING WILL
BE IN THE FAR SE OR EVEN FURTHER SE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ALSO THINK STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE INTO SE KS/SW MO AND
OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BETTER AND JET DYNAMICS MORE
FAVORABLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE SETS UP
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE PAINTED AN AREA ACROSS
THE SE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAY SEE SOME STORMS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES
INTO THAT AREA...BUT DO NOT THINK THOSE STORMS WOULD BE SEVERE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PUSH SE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES NW TO SE. LOWS
DROP INTO THE 50S AS STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. BY THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SW
US BEGINS SENDING SHORTWAVE TROFS INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...OVER THE BOUNDARY RESIDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
BRINGS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT RAIN ALL DAY EVERY DAY DO ANTICIPATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARD 80 BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THOSE STORMS TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD STORMS FIRE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE EXPECTED AREA.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...LEIGHTON
000
FXUS63 KGLD 201133
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION WILL NOT
OCCUR BELOW 600 MB BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER 18Z. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT A MASSIVE WARM/UP.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AS DAKOTA LOW EJECTS EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AS SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AS AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND BEGINS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER.
SURFACE THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FAVOR NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING/SHARPENING OF LEE SIDE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THESE WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA AND NECESSITATE DAILY
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVEN BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM KAKO TO KMCK. THIS BAND HAS PERSISTED
IN THE SAME LOCATION FOR THE LAST THREE HOURS...SO WILL NOT IMPACT
KGLD. MENTIONED SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KMCK...BUT KEPT CEILINGS
AROUND 8000 FEET WITH A LOWER SCATTERED DECK. AFTER 15Z...THE AIR
MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. AGAIN...ONLY MENTIONED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH
TAF SITES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING/LOCATION OF SHOWERS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...MENTZER
000
FXUS63 KDDC 200904
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THE
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, YET STILL CLIMB
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IN
PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE, ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, THIS WILL CREATE A ZONE OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEST-NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COMBINED WITH
THE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES
TO ENFORCE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TO MID DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH CAPE VALUES UP NEAR 500 J/KG, A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
WITH POOR SHEAR PROFILES AND THE LOWER INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HELPS DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 15C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F)
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOWER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE INFLUENCED
BY COLD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER WILL RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. A
MINOR WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. UPSTREAM IN THE PACIFIC,
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE DATELINE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD HEIGHTS NEAR 150W, AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE NORTH OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO OREGON BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN
CANADA FINALLY WILL EJECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE, AND RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. COOL AIR WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES,
AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MID WEEK. FALLING PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AND SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
ANOTHER CLUSTER FORMING IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THE COLORADO CLUSTER SHOULD RIPPLE DOWN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DURING THE NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ANOTHER CLUSTER PROBABLY WILL FORM A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY THE WARM SHOULD BE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER, AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS WILL
SHIFT THE FAVORED AREA FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FARTHER
NORTH.
TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS PROMINENT IN THE INDIAN
OCEAN IN RECENT DAYS, BUT THE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ASIA ACROSS
JAPAN INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC TODAY. THIS STRONG JET WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND APPROACH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS THE JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF MAY,
ANOTHER PERIOD OF VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MAY EVOLVE. SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THAT FAR IN THE FUTURE.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME HIGH
BASED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS GYRE, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL TO
NONEXISTENT. AS SUCH, THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS MINIMAL,
AND THE LOW POPS NEAR INTERSTATE 70 WERE REMOVED. WEDNESDAY SHOULD
BE QUIET IN WESTERN KANSAS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT
COULD CLIP SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH H8 DEWPOINTS
ABOVE 10 C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. PROGRESSION OF THE WARM
FRONT FRIDAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
CONVECTION, AND POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. BY
SATURDAY, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT
WILL PROGRESS TO NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER, AND MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 48 77 49 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 76 47 75 47 / 20 20 10 10
EHA 75 47 77 48 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 77 47 78 49 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 77 47 73 48 / 20 20 10 10
P28 80 52 79 52 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KTOP 200858
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
PHASING PAIR OF UPPER LOWS CONTINUE TO MERGE AND SPIN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...ROTATING PIECES OF ENERGY AROUND ALL QUADS AS IT
DOES SO. 80-100KT UPPER JET MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES ATTM. SFC PRESSURE PLOT IS
MORE DIFFUSE OVER EASTERN KS ATTM...AS CONVECTION HAS SENT OUTFLOW
OUT IN ALL DIRECTIONS. MORE CONSISTENT NW WIND FRONTAL PATTERN
SHOWS UP OVER SE NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING CONVECTION. SATELLITE TRENDS DO SUGGEST CLEARING BEHIND
THIS MORNINGS ROUND WHICH WOULD HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY THROUGH
THE DAY. NAM SURFACE PATTERN BEGINS TO SUGGEST AN INVERTED TROF
SETTING UP AROUND 18Z OVER THE I35 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN KS...ALSO
BRINGING THE UPPER JET OVER THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME BEFORE A
SHARP BOUNDARY HAS A CHANCE TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. STILL HAVE
RESPECTABLE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS...WITH MU CAPE VALUES FROM
MHK WESTWARD OF 1500-2500K/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST CAP ERODES IN THE LATER AFTERNOON WHEN 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS ARE IN THE 50KT RANGE. PRIMARY CONCERNS WOULD BE FOR HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SET UP...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS BETTER BACKING WILL
BE IN THE FAR SE OR EVEN FURTHER SE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
ALSO THINK STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE INTO SE KS/SW MO AND
OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS BETTER AND JET DYNAMICS MORE
FAVORABLE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE SETS UP
BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE PAINTED AN AREA ACROSS
THE SE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. MAY SEE SOME STORMS IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATES
INTO THAT AREA...BUT DO NOT THINK THOSE STORMS WOULD BE SEVERE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PUSH SE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES NW TO SE. LOWS
DROP INTO THE 50S AS STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR MOVES EASTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. BY THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SW
US BEGINS SENDING SHORTWAVE TROFS INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...OVER THE BOUNDARY RESIDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
BRINGS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT RAIN ALL DAY EVERY DAY DO ANTICIPATE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARD 80 BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SETUP ACROSS EC KS MON MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TOP AND FOE MAY BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WITH MHK
LIKELY DRY. OTHER THAN IN THE THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 200827
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE FINAL
SHORTWAVE FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION WILL NOT
OCCUR BELOW 600 MB BY THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER 18Z. 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT A MASSIVE WARM/UP.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AS DAKOTA LOW EJECTS EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AS SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER THE AREA. BY THURSDAY
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SUBTLE
MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE AS AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND BEGINS INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER.
SURFACE THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FAVOR NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING/SHARPENING OF LEE SIDE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THESE WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA AND NECESSITATE DAILY
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE OVER THE
WEEKEND LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BEYOND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WITH SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IMPACTING THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND EVEN BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULDNT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT IF A MODERATE RAIN SHOWER MOVES OVER KMCK.
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA ROTATING SOUTH
ALONG WESTERN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND SHOULD MOVE OVER
KMCK THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WITHIN VICINITY
OF KGLD. CURRENT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO
LIMITED MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW CENTER AND STRONGER GRADIENT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT AT KGLD WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE
WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...BOWERS
AVIATION...DR
000
FXUS63 KICT 200813
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
FOCUS WILL BE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000 J/KG SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MID-
UPPER JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS OF
50-65 KT IN THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN STRONG ENOUGH INSOLATION
OCCURS...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE TOWARD MID
AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS LOOK TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LESSER
THAN SUNDAY PM/EVE...WITH HELICITY AND OTHER TORNADO PARAMETERS
PROGGED TO BE HIGHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL
TARGET SOUTHWEST MO INTO EASTERN OK...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST
KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KS...WITH A HIGHER THREAT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE. STORM MERGERS
AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE WEATHER
TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END IN THE SOUTHEAST LATER TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT PUSH EAST.
JMC
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
MID-UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE PERIOD WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO MOVE
EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THE PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK
AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT LEAST UNTIL THE TROUGH
OUT WEST BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD. GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES APPEAR
ON TRACK.
JMC
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A LINGERING LINE OF STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE KCNU TAF SITE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF SITE
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AS SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS ON
MON...AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR KCNU FOR
MON AFTERNOON...AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LOCATED OVER EXTREME SE KS. SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR MON AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 82 55 77 55 / 20 20 10 10
HUTCHINSON 80 53 76 54 / 20 20 10 10
NEWTON 81 54 76 54 / 20 20 10 10
ELDORADO 82 55 77 55 / 30 30 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 84 58 78 55 / 40 40 10 10
RUSSELL 78 50 73 52 / 20 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 78 51 74 53 / 20 20 10 10
SALINA 79 53 75 52 / 20 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 80 53 76 53 / 20 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 82 65 79 57 / 80 80 50 10
CHANUTE 82 62 78 56 / 60 70 30 10
IOLA 82 62 78 56 / 50 60 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 82 63 78 57 / 70 80 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 200740
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE SYSTEM
WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA
WHILE THE SMALLER SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, THE
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD, YET STILL CLIMB
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT IN
PLACE. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE, ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS, SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH THE SURFACE
LOW IN NORTHWEST TEXAS, THIS WILL CREATE A ZONE OF INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE GENERALLY FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WEST-NORTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COMBINED WITH
THE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO, NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AND POSSIBLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
IN THE MEANTIME, AS COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS CONTINUES
TO ENFORCE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS POINT TO H7 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY TO MID DAY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH CAPE VALUES UP NEAR 500 J/KG, A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY
WITH POOR SHEAR PROFILES AND THE LOWER INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN A
MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS FOR TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS HELPS DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM
YESTERDAY WITH AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 15C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 70S(F) THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE, EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F)
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOWER 50S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 48 77 52 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 76 47 75 50 / 20 20 10 10
EHA 75 47 77 51 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 77 47 79 52 / 20 20 10 10
HYS 77 47 72 51 / 20 20 10 10
P28 80 52 80 55 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KGLD 200531
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH...MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS
FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS COULDNT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT IF A MODERATE RAIN SHOWER MOVES OVER KMCK.
RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA ROTATING SOUTH
ALONG WESTERN EXTENT OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...AND SHOULD MOVE OVER
KMCK THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WITHIN VICINITY
OF KGLD. CURRENT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING BETWEEN 12Z-15Z BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...SO
LIMITED MENTION OF VCSH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW CENTER AND STRONGER GRADIENT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT AT KGLD WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE
WITH GUSTS TO 30KT AND THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
000
FXUS63 KDDC 200507
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1207 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS
FOR WINDS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA TODAY. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 77 52 81 / 20 10 10 10
GCK 49 75 50 81 / 20 10 10 10
EHA 49 77 51 84 / 20 10 10 0
LBL 50 79 52 84 / 20 10 10 10
HYS 50 72 51 77 / 20 20 10 10
P28 55 80 55 82 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
000
FXUS63 KICT 200503
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1203 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A COLD FRONT BISECTING KS FROM
NORTH-SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NE.
THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK...WHICH THEN TRAILS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OK. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...OWING
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A 70-90KT JET MAX
IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS...A STOUT CAP IS LIKELY CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...ACTING TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THIS CAP SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE BREACHED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...AS ALL THESE FEATURES CONVERGE AMIDST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN 50-60KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR
LIKELY...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THINKING THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...WHEN
BACKING SURFACE FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCES
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES. AN ISOLATED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MON AFTERNOON-NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...AS THE FRONT STALLS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVE...COULD SEE MODEST/STEEP RISES ON FAR SOUTHEAST KS
RIVERS/STREAMS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING...SO
A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE PONDERED BY LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY
IF AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURS TONIGHT. WHILE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
LOWER...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL STILL PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES...ENDING STORM
CHANCES.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
MID-AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...COULD BE LOOKING AT PERIODIC BOUTS OF LATE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE
AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW DUE TO
MARGINAL MID/UPPER FLOW...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A
THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
A LINGERING LINE OF STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE KCNU TAF SITE. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS FOR THIS TAF SITE
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...AS SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE TAF LOCATIONS ON
MON...AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR KCNU FOR
MON AFTERNOON...AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LOCATED OVER EXTREME SE KS. SO WILL GO
WITH A VCTS FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR MON AFTERNOON.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 56 77 55 78 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 55 76 54 78 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 55 76 54 76 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 56 77 55 77 / 20 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 78 55 79 / 40 10 10 10
RUSSELL 51 73 52 77 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 52 74 53 78 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 54 75 52 76 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 54 76 53 77 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 65 79 57 78 / 80 50 10 10
CHANUTE 62 78 56 76 / 70 30 10 10
IOLA 62 78 56 76 / 60 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 63 78 57 77 / 80 40 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 200439
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. UPPER JET IS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION ENHANCING LIFT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS HAVE OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST KANSAS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE
VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO
50 KTS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 100 TO
150 M2/S2 IS FORECAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CWA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE TOWARD
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH CENTRAL TO
THE MID 60S EAST CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION
GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW SPINS EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE BOUNDARY THAT GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS WILL LINGER WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA UNTIL THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
80S...THEN COOLING INTO GENERALLY THE MIDDLE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL WARRANT A REINTRODUCTION OF CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGHS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SETUP ACROSS EC KS MON MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TOP AND FOE MAY BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WITH MHK
LIKELY DRY. OTHER THAN IN THE THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...PHILLIPS
000
FXUS63 KDDC 200438
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OSCILLATING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE TROUGH
IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A NARROW
+70KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS STREAMING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH A SECONDARY LOW IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA, THEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. IR
SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY SHARP DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WICHITA, KS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO JUST WEST OF ABILENE,
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE IS SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL TAPER
OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS NORTHWEST AND 10KTS OR
LESS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AS CONVECTION CROSSES HAYS AND NEAR THE
DDC AIRPORTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 78 50 77 / 30 20 20 10
GCK 50 77 49 75 / 10 20 20 10
EHA 49 75 49 77 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 52 78 50 79 / 10 20 20 10
HYS 53 78 50 72 / 10 20 20 20
P28 57 81 55 80 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
000
FXUS63 KTOP 200003
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
703 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. UPPER JET IS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION ENHANCING LIFT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS HAVE OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST KANSAS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE
VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO
50 KTS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 100 TO
150 M2/S2 IS FORECAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CWA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE TOWARD
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH CENTRAL TO
THE MID 60S EAST CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION
GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW SPINS EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE BOUNDARY THAT GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS WILL LINGER WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA UNTIL THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
80S...THEN COOLING INTO GENERALLY THE MIDDLE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL WARRANT A REINTRODUCTION OF CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGHS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MAIN LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TOP AND
FOE TERMINALS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL
AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION AND AFTER 05Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53
000
FXUS63 KICT 192359
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A COLD FRONT BISECTING KS FROM
NORTH-SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NE.
THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK...WHICH THEN TRAILS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OK. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...OWING
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A 70-90KT JET MAX
IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS...A STOUT CAP IS LIKELY CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...ACTING TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THIS CAP SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE BREACHED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...AS ALL THESE FEATURES CONVERGE AMIDST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN 50-60KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR
LIKELY...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THINKING THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...WHEN
BACKING SURFACE FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCES
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES. AN ISOLATED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MON AFTERNOON-NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...AS THE FRONT STALLS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVE...COULD SEE MODEST/STEEP RISES ON FAR SOUTHEAST KS
RIVERS/STREAMS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING...SO
A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE PONDERED BY LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY
IF AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURS TONIGHT. WHILE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
LOWER...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL STILL PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES...ENDING STORM
CHANCES.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
MID-AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...COULD BE LOOKING AT PERIODIC BOUTS OF LATE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE
AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW DUE TO
MARGINAL MID/UPPER FLOW...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A
THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TRANSIENT MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORIES UNDER THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY REMAINS FURTHER EAST
EMBEDDED ALONG A LINE OVER THE FLINT HILLS AREA. THIS LINE WILL
IMPACT KCNU THROUGH AFTER 01Z AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 04-05Z
BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 82 56 77 / 40 20 20 10
HUTCHINSON 58 80 55 76 / 30 20 10 10
NEWTON 58 81 55 76 / 40 20 10 10
ELDORADO 61 82 56 77 / 60 20 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 63 84 58 78 / 60 30 40 10
RUSSELL 53 78 51 73 / 10 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 52 78 52 74 / 10 20 10 10
SALINA 55 79 54 75 / 30 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 56 80 54 76 / 30 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 67 82 65 79 / 80 60 80 50
CHANUTE 66 82 62 78 / 80 60 70 30
IOLA 66 82 62 78 / 80 50 60 20
PARSONS-KPPF 67 82 63 78 / 80 60 80 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 192351
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
551 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH...MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS
FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONDITIONS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IF A
TERMINAL IS IMPACTED BY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS KGLD
TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 35KT POSSIBLE BASED ON
RADAR/UPSTREAM OBS. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF SURFACE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHORTWAVE GUIDANCE INDICATING BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTH OVER BOTH
TERMINALS...SO I INCLUDED ADDITIONAL VCSH GROUP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO COVER THIS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AFTER 12Z TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS.
PREVAILING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 10K BY
03Z...AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 30KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR
000
FXUS63 KDDC 192305
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL TAPER
OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS NORTHWEST AND 10KTS OR
LESS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AS CONVECTION CROSSES HAYS AND NEAR THE
DDC AIRPORTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 78 50 77 / 30 20 20 10
GCK 50 77 49 75 / 30 20 20 10
EHA 49 75 49 77 / 30 20 20 10
LBL 52 78 50 79 / 20 20 20 10
HYS 53 78 50 72 / 40 20 20 20
P28 57 81 55 80 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
000
FXUS63 KTOP 192122
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
422 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA
THIS EVENING. UPPER JET IS NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
MUCH OF THE CWA UNDER THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION ENHANCING LIFT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8 TO 9 DEGREES CELSIUS HAVE OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST KANSAS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPE
VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO
50 KTS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY 100 TO
150 M2/S2 IS FORECAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
CWA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE TOWARD
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH CENTRAL TO
THE MID 60S EAST CENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT THERE WILL BE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION
GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW SPINS EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE BOUNDARY THAT GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS WILL LINGER WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CWA UNTIL THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THE
BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
80S...THEN COOLING INTO GENERALLY THE MIDDLE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL WARRANT A REINTRODUCTION OF CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGHS
SHOULD BEGIN TO EDGE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TIMING OF TSRA INTO
THE TERMINALS WITH MHK IN THE 19Z-20Z TIME FRAME AND TOP AND FOE
AROUND 22Z. WITH SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN TAFS THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE THE EARLY EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER 02Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...53
000
FXUS63 KDDC 192044
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES. PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA. THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER, PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE. THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.
STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA. THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL COOLING THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE PLACED A VCSH IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 78 50 77 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 50 77 49 75 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 49 75 49 77 / 20 20 20 10
LBL 52 78 50 79 / 20 20 20 10
HYS 53 78 50 72 / 20 20 20 20
P28 57 81 55 80 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KDDC 192003
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AS WARM AIR FLOWS INTO CANADA AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE THAT IS CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE
NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AROUND THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES GYRE AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
TUESDAY. RIDGING AROUND 150-160W IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF
THE DATELINE WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FINALLY WILL EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
EASTERN CANADA WILL RETROGRADE TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE THIS WEEK, AND
A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUBSEQUENTLY WILL PROPAGATE INTO KANSAS AND PROVIDE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BREAK
DOWN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND THAN THE GFS.
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS THAT FAR
IN THE FUTURE, BUT THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PROPENSITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKY PATTERN
THIS MONTH. WITH A HUGE POOL OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PACIFIC AROUND 150W, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO TEND TOWARD A
PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR
AT LEAST THE REST OF MAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY, AND MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NEBRASKA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW DIURNALLY
MODULATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN NORTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER
MINOR WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PROPAGATES EAST, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE MINIMAL.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL SPREAD
INTO KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN KANSAS TO SHIFT THE
FAVORED AREA FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL COOLING THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE PLACED A VCSH IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 78 50 77 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 50 77 49 75 / 20 20 20 10
EHA 49 76 48 76 / 20 20 20 10
LBL 52 78 50 79 / 20 20 20 10
HYS 53 78 50 72 / 20 20 20 20
P28 57 81 55 80 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KICT 191939
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON-NIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A COLD FRONT BISECTING KS FROM
NORTH-SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NE.
THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL
OK...WHICH THEN TRAILS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN OK. THE AIRMASS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...OWING
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTINUED AFTERNOON HEATING AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A 70-90KT JET MAX
IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS...A STOUT CAP IS LIKELY CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...ACTING TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER...THIS CAP SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE BREACHED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...AS ALL THESE FEATURES CONVERGE AMIDST A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN 50-60KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR
LIKELY...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. THINKING THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR...AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...WHEN
BACKING SURFACE FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCES
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITIES. AN ISOLATED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADO WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS EVENING PROGRESSES...STORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MORE OF A LINEAR MODE...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MON AFTERNOON-NIGHT OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...AS THE FRONT STALLS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN INDIVIDUAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVE...COULD SEE MODEST/STEEP RISES ON FAR SOUTHEAST KS
RIVERS/STREAMS...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING...SO
A FLOOD WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE PONDERED BY LATER SHIFTS...ESPECIALLY
IF AMPLE RAINFALL OCCURS TONIGHT. WHILE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
LOWER...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL STILL PROMOTE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUES...ENDING STORM
CHANCES.
ADK
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS BUILDS MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
MID-AMERICA BY MID-WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...COULD BE LOOKING AT PERIODIC BOUTS OF LATE
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL PROMOTE
AFTERNOON HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY...WHICH WOULD TEND TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERALL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW DUE TO
MARGINAL MID/UPPER FLOW...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A
THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRY-LINE AND COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR. CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING ALONG A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE BUT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SUPER-
CELL STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE DRY-LINE AND FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT TERM
AMENDMENTS AS CONVECTION LOOKS MORE IMMINENT.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 82 56 77 / 40 20 20 10
HUTCHINSON 58 80 55 76 / 30 20 10 10
NEWTON 58 81 55 76 / 40 20 10 10
ELDORADO 61 82 56 77 / 60 20 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 63 84 58 78 / 60 30 40 10
RUSSELL 53 78 51 73 / 10 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 52 78 52 74 / 10 20 10 10
SALINA 55 79 54 75 / 30 20 10 10
MCPHERSON 56 80 54 76 / 30 20 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 67 82 65 79 / 80 60 80 50
CHANUTE 66 82 62 78 / 80 60 70 30
IOLA 66 82 62 78 / 80 50 60 20
PARSONS-KPPF 67 82 63 78 / 80 60 80 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191925
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
125 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH...MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS
FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EITHER KGLD OR KMCK
COULD SEE A BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTION FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
000
FXUS63 KTOP 191820
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
120 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ADJUSTED CONVECTIVE TIMING FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR AT 1250 PM WAS SHOWING DEVELOPING CELLS NEAR JUNCTION CITY
AND ANOTHER AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND 40 TO 50 KTS IN EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CAPE WAS AVERAGING AROUND 1000 J/KG NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 20Z WITH ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUING
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH TIME (8-9 DEG) AS THE UPPER
WAVE/TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SHORT TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS IN TACT
FOR SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KANSAS...WITH ALL HAZARDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
THE INITIAL SURFACE OBSERVATION MAP INDICATES A RATHER WORKED OVER
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IN THE WAKE OF STRONG STORMS WHICH HAVE SINCE
LEFT THE AREA. PREVIOUS AS WELL AS ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CREATE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE KS/OK BORDER REGION...WHICH MAY
PLAY A ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND BEHAVIOR FOR SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH POST OFB OVER RUNNING REMAIN IN
THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SKIES CAN CLEAR ON SUNDAY WILL HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS RAP40 H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE THE STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH...PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SATURDAYS
CONVECTION...REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS IT GRADUALLY
MOVES EAST. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES H5 HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...ALONG WITH A
POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT A PERIOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
ALL HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS PROG A QUICK RECOVERY OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW COMING OFF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL AID
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. AN INITIAL ROUND OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RIDES OVER THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT AS WELL AS AROUND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ANY STORM
TO TAP INTO...SO ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS INITIAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE AREA OF THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE
MAIN PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE IRONED OUT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO DETERMINE THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THE AREA. 06Z RAP FORECAST OF SURFACE THETA E AND WIND DIRECTION
SHOWS A GOOD PUNCH OF DRY AIR COMING OFF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE WICHITA METRO AREA. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS DRY PUNCH
AND STRONG SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT THAT
WOULD BE ONE OF THE FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FACTOR IN FAVOR OF ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS THE
PRESENCE OF A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET...WHICH NOSES INTO SE
KANSAS...PUTTING THE CONVECTIVELY FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION RIGHT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THESE FACTORS IT APPEARS CONCEIVABLE
THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE 20-21Z IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PUSH NORTHEAST UTILIZING
3500-4500 ML CAPE AND PERHAPS 40 TO 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
EXTREME MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 9-9.5 C/KM WILL AID IN
CREATING THE EXTREME ML CAPE...SO ANY UPDRAFT THAT GOES UP DURING
PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...ON THE
ORDER OF BASEBALL SIZED...WITH PERHAPS SOME LARGER STONES. OF COURSE
WITH ANY STORM THAT BECOMES SURFACE BASED STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
ALWAYS BE PROBABLE...SO AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD SEE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 60 TO 70 MPH.
INITIAL STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY DETAILED MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES AND COULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE...HOWEVER
ONCE THE MAIN MID LEVEL SYSTEM CAN MOVE INTO THE AREA COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE...WITH DISCREET STORMS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
REGARDING THE TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY PRESENT
FOR THESE STORMS AND THE STRONG SHEAR IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT A
TORNADO OR TWO COULD FORM. GIVEN THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SSE AND LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERING WITH HEIGHT THE
GENERAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE WILL BE IN PLACE TO WARRANT A TORNADO
THREAT. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS FOR NUMEROUS STRONG TORNADOES ARE FAR
FROM PERFECT IN THIS SET UP...AS THE HODOGRAPHS LACK THE OPTIMAL
LOOPING CLOCKWISE STRUCTURE. WIND PROFILES DO LOOK A BIT BETTER WITH
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS THAN BEFORE...BUT STILL TAKE ON A BIT
OF AN S-SHAPE WITH COUNTERCLOCKWISE STRUCTURE. A PLANAR VIEW OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOWS THAT ENOUGH TURNING WILL TAKE PLACE IN
THE LOWEST 1-3 KM TO CONTINUE A CONCERN FOR TORNADIC
BEHAVIOR...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE EARLY EVENING SETS IN AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN INCREASE...LENGTHENING THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE
HODOGRAPH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR PROFILE
IS NOT PERFECT FOR STRONG TORNADOES TO OCCUR THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
SIGNAL FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR A DISCREET
STORM OR TWO TO PRODUCE A TORNADO...PERHAPS STRONG...ESPECIALLY IF A
BOUNDARY COMES INTO PLAY.
AS THE DAY WEARS ON STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING AMPLE ASCENT AND SUPPORT
FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL ALSO AID IN INCREASING STORM COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MCS/SQUALL LINE LATER IN
THE DAY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER...EVENTUALLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MON-TUES...HAVE KEPT LINGERING OVERNIGHT POPS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW EVENING CONVECTION UNFOLDS SUNDAY.
LEAD RIPPLE IN THE BIGGER LONGWAVE TROF APPEARS TO MOVE NE INTO
IOWA BY 12Z MONDAY AND WOULD EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MORNING. BRUNT OF THE LONGWAVE TROF STILL POISED TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA HOWEVER...AND JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OVER
EASTERN KS BY THE NOON HOUR MONDAY. THIS HELPS KEEP THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE RRE OF THE UPPER JET AND
BROAD LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROF MOVE OUT OVER THE FRONT ONCE
AGAIN...AND FIRES OFF MORE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE
STORMS WOULD BE SEVERE AS GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN IN
PLACE. THE BEST FOCUS FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE JUST SE OF THE
TOPEKA COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF. SOME
DETAIL DEPENDS ON MORE MESOSCALE MECHANISMS AND FORECAST LOCATION
MAY ADJUST SOMEWHAT BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY...BUT FOR THOSE ALONG
AND SE OF I35 STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLY MORE SEVERE WEATHER LATE
MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AND POPS
REFLECT THIS TREND. HIGHS BY TUESDAY ONLY ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE
70S AS COOLER TEMPS FROM THE NW OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WED-SAT ANTICIPATE COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS UPPER
TROF IS SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
SW FLOW REESTABLISHES OVER THE SW STATES...AND FRONT IN BETWEEN
GENERATES SHOWERS AND THUNDER AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
WILL CARRY SOME POPS A BIT HIGHER TO THE SW AS A RESULT. GENERALLY
ANTICIPATE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. TIMING OF TSRA INTO
THE TERMINALS WITH MHK IN THE 19Z-20Z TIME FRAME AND TOP AND FOE
AROUND 22Z. WITH SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN TAFS THROUGH 02Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE THE EARLY EVENING THEN DECREASE AFTER 02Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...LEIGHTON
LONG TERM...CRAVEN
AVIATION...53
000
FXUS63 KGLD 191744
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LARGE H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING. PRIOR TO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WEAK SFC BASED
INSTABILITY AND PERIODS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING AROUND THE CWA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENSEMBLE DATA AND OPERATIONAL MODELS POINTING TO
NORTHERN CWA HAVING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STILL NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF NEAR SFC FORCING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION COVERAGE SO HAVE LEFT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR
NOW. WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF THINGS FOR
THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. EITHER KGLD OR KMCK
COULD SEE A BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTION FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JRM/MCK
AVIATION...024
000
FXUS63 KICT 191719
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE GOING FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXPECATATIONS
SEEM ON TRACK FOR DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERE CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST DAY1 SPC OUTLOOK
EXPLAINS THIS WELL...WITH INITIAL FOCUS ALONG THE RETREATING
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRY-LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
THEN EVOLVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF
ROBUST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH LONGER TRACK LENGTHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): SVR TSRA POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG & E OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT WAS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN EARLY SAT MORNING IS
BEHAVING MUCH AS EXPECTED BY TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXCEPTIONALLY
POWERFUL SVR TSRA (ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE BETTER POSITIONED UNDER
PRONOUNCED UPR DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT JET
STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROF. IN RESPONSE THE SFC CYCLONE SITUATED
OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH E/NE TOWARD CNTRL KS WHICH WOULD ENABLE A STRONG
SFC DRY LINE DRAPED ACROSS ERN NM TO PUSH E ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE
EWD PROGRESS OF THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OVER THE
ERN PLAINS HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB FUEL WILL SPREAD NW & NE RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS SE KS. THE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY MORNING TSRA COUPLED
WITH SFC HEATING WOULD DEFINITELY INDUCE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE
CAPES FORECAST BY THE NAM & ESPECIALLY THE GFS OF 2500-4000 J/KG
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD EASILY PROMOTE SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL & TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS & WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO 125-150% OF NORMAL THE ++RA POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO
INCREASE OVER SE KS.
ON MONDAY...WITH DEEP CYCLOGENESIS HAVING ALREADY ENSUD OVER NEBRASKA
& SD THE SFC FRONT MAY STALL AS IT APPROACHES CNTRL KS. AS SUCH +TSRA
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER SE KS MON AFTERNOON & NGT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER SE KS. IN FACT A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SE KS MON NGT. AS THE NRN PLAINS CYCLONE
OCCLUDES TUE MORNING DEEPENING SW-WLY FLOW SHOULD ENABLE SHRA/TSRA TO
END OVER SE KS TUE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AFTER A 2-DAY INTERMISSION SCT -SHRA/-TSRA SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
WED NGT WITH CHANCES STEADILY INCREASING FROM THU ONWARD. THE CULPRIT
IS A 2ND MID-LVL SHORTWAVE THAT`LL MOVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID
LVL LOW. WITH THIS SCENARIO HAVING CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 3-4
RUNS THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRY-LINE AND COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR. CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING ALONG A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE BUT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SUPER-
CELL STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE DRY-LINE AND FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT TERM
AMENDMENTS AS CONVECTION LOOKS MORE IMMINENT.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 88 60 81 58 / 50 30 30 40
HUTCHINSON 84 58 81 55 / 50 20 20 30
NEWTON 87 58 79 57 / 60 30 30 30
ELDORADO 86 61 81 59 / 60 50 40 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 63 82 60 / 60 50 40 60
RUSSELL 81 53 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 81 52 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
SALINA 83 55 80 53 / 50 20 20 30
MCPHERSON 84 56 80 55 / 50 20 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 85 67 83 62 / 60 80 60 90
CHANUTE 85 66 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
IOLA 85 66 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
PARSONS-KPPF 85 67 82 62 / 70 80 60 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 191718
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): SVR TSRA POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG & E OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT WAS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN EARLY SAT MORNING IS
BEHAVING MUCH AS EXPECTED BY TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXCEPTIONALLY
POWERFUL SVR TSRA (ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE BETTER POSITIONED UNDER
PRONOUNCED UPR DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT JET
STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROF. IN RESPONSE THE SFC CYCLONE SITUATED
OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH E/NE TOWARD CNTRL KS WHICH WOULD ENABLE A STRONG
SFC DRY LINE DRAPED ACROSS ERN NM TO PUSH E ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE
EWD PROGRESS OF THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OVER THE
ERN PLAINS HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB FUEL WILL SPREAD NW & NE RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS SE KS. THE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY MORNING TSRA COUPLED
WITH SFC HEATING WOULD DEFINITELY INDUCE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE
CAPES FORECAST BY THE NAM & ESPECIALLY THE GFS OF 2500-4000 J/KG
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD EASILY PROMOTE SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL & TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS & WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO 125-150% OF NORMAL THE ++RA POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO
INCREASE OVER SE KS.
ON MONDAY...WITH DEEP CYCLOGENESIS HAVING ALREADY ENSUD OVER NEBRASKA
& SD THE SFC FRONT MAY STALL AS IT APPROACHES CNTRL KS. AS SUCH +TSRA
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER SE KS MON AFTERNOON & NGT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER SE KS. IN FACT A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SE KS MON NGT. AS THE NRN PLAINS CYCLONE
OCCLUDES TUE MORNING DEEPENING SW-WLY FLOW SHOULD ENABLE SHRA/TSRA TO
END OVER SE KS TUE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AFTER A 2-DAY INTERMISSION SCT -SHRA/-TSRA SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
WED NGT WITH CHANCES STEADILY INCREASING FROM THU ONWARD. THE CULPRIT
IS A 2ND MID-LVL SHORTWAVE THAT`LL MOVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID
LVL LOW. WITH THIS SCENARIO HAVING CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 3-4
RUNS THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRY-LINE AND COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR. CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING ALONG A SALINA TO WICHITA LINE BUT
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SUPER-
CELL STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE DRY-LINE AND FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST
VALID PERIOD...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT TERM
AMENDMENTS AS CONVECTION LOOKS MORE IMMINENT.
KED
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 88 60 81 58 / 50 30 30 40
HUTCHINSON 84 58 81 55 / 50 20 20 30
NEWTON 87 58 79 57 / 60 30 30 30
ELDORADO 86 61 81 59 / 60 50 40 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 63 82 60 / 60 50 40 60
RUSSELL 81 53 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 81 52 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
SALINA 83 55 80 53 / 50 20 20 30
MCPHERSON 84 56 80 55 / 50 20 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 85 67 83 62 / 60 80 60 90
CHANUTE 85 66 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
IOLA 85 66 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
PARSONS-KPPF 85 67 82 62 / 70 80 60 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 191656
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED OFF LOW AS IT
MOVES EAST OUT INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TODAY.
THIS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OF EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE CLOSED OFF LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH, AN
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL ENTER THE TROUGH AXIS THEN NOSE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT. NEAR THE SURFACE, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BEGIN PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD SETTING UP INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG) AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST THE
DRYLINE ADVANCES BEFORE STORMS INITIATE. STILL, THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF A HAYS TO
COLDWATER LINE.
BEHIND THE DRYLINE...SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ENFORCE STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE VALUES
GRADUALLY DECREASING BELOW 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ENOUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN
KANSAS DRIFTS FURTHER EAST TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C)
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS BEHIND THE DRYLINE, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THIS MORNING GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE 50S(F).
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
A BLOCKY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR MOST
OF THIS WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN AS WARM AIR FLOWS INTO CANADA AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE THAT IS CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE
NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AROUND THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES GYRE AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MONDAY, AND YET ANOTHER
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS
TUESDAY. RIDGING AROUND 150-160W IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP TROUGH WEST OF
THE DATELINE WILL SUPPORT AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FINALLY WILL EJECT TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
EASTERN CANADA WILL RETROGRADE TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE THIS WEEK, AND
A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS AREA OF
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO
EASTERN COLORADO WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SUBSEQUENTLY WILL PROPAGATE INTO KANSAS AND PROVIDE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH MID WEEK, BUT THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BREAK
DOWN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND THAN THE GFS.
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS THAT FAR
IN THE FUTURE, BUT THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PROPENSITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKY PATTERN
THIS MONTH. WITH A HUGE POOL OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
PACIFIC AROUND 150W, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO TEND TOWARD A
PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR
AT LEAST THE REST OF MAY.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY, AND MODEST MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE NEBRASKA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT
A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW DIURNALLY
MODULATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN NORTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER
MINOR WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE GYRE CENTERED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PROPAGATES EAST, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE MINIMAL.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL SPREAD
INTO KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO EVOLVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN KANSAS TO SHIFT THE
FAVORED AREA FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID
LEVEL COOLING THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE PLACED A VCSH IN THE TAFS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY 00Z. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5
TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 52 79 50 / 30 20 30 20
GCK 82 50 77 49 / 40 20 30 20
EHA 83 50 77 49 / 20 20 30 20
LBL 85 50 78 50 / 30 20 30 20
HYS 83 52 77 50 / 40 20 30 20
P28 88 57 82 55 / 40 20 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
000
FXUS63 KICT 191630
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE GOING FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXPECATATIONS
SEEM ON TRACK FOR DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERE CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST DAY1 SPC OUTLOOK
EXPLAINS THIS WELL...WITH INITIAL FOCUS ALONG THE RETREATING
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRY-LINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
THEN EVOLVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF
ROBUST INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH LONGER TRACK LENGTHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL.
KED
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHT (MAJOR): SVR TSRA POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH FOR MOST
AREAS ALONG & E OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT.
UPR-DECK TROF THAT WAS DIGGING OVER GREAT BASIN EARLY SAT MORNING IS
BEHAVING MUCH AS EXPECTED BY TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE
CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPR TROF
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXCEPTIONALLY
POWERFUL SVR TSRA (ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS WHERE BETTER POSITIONED UNDER
PRONOUNCED UPR DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF 60-70 KT JET
STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROF. IN RESPONSE THE SFC CYCLONE SITUATED
OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH E/NE TOWARD CNTRL KS WHICH WOULD ENABLE A STRONG
SFC DRY LINE DRAPED ACROSS ERN NM TO PUSH E ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE
EWD PROGRESS OF THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. OVER THE
ERN PLAINS HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB FUEL WILL SPREAD NW & NE RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS SE KS. THE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY MORNING TSRA COUPLED
WITH SFC HEATING WOULD DEFINITELY INDUCE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE
CAPES FORECAST BY THE NAM & ESPECIALLY THE GFS OF 2500-4000 J/KG
COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD EASILY PROMOTE SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL & TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE PRIMARY
THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS & WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASING TO 125-150% OF NORMAL THE ++RA POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO
INCREASE OVER SE KS.
ON MONDAY...WITH DEEP CYCLOGENESIS HAVING ALREADY ENSUD OVER NEBRASKA
& SD THE SFC FRONT MAY STALL AS IT APPROACHES CNTRL KS. AS SUCH +TSRA
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER SE KS MON AFTERNOON & NGT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER SE KS. IN FACT A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SE KS MON NGT. AS THE NRN PLAINS CYCLONE
OCCLUDES TUE MORNING DEEPENING SW-WLY FLOW SHOULD ENABLE SHRA/TSRA TO
END OVER SE KS TUE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AFTER A 2-DAY INTERMISSION SCT -SHRA/-TSRA SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION
WED NGT WITH CHANCES STEADILY INCREASING FROM THU ONWARD. THE CULPRIT
IS A 2ND MID-LVL SHORTWAVE THAT`LL MOVE SE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MID
LVL LOW. WITH THIS SCENARIO HAVING CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 3-4
RUNS THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY
12Z THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL DECK HAS INHIBITED STRATUS FORMATION
THUS FAR...AND WILL CARRY A SCATTERED DECK 2000-2500 FT THIS
MORNING MOST SITES. VARIABLE WINDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY BY MID MORNING. WIDELY
SEPARATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS MID-LATE PM NEAR COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BOUNDARIES.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL JET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
W-NWRLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 88 60 81 58 / 50 30 30 40
HUTCHINSON 84 58 81 55 / 50 20 20 30
NEWTON 87 58 79 57 / 60 30 30 30
ELDORADO 86 61 81 59 / 60 50 40 50
WINFIELD-KWLD 87 63 82 60 / 60 50 40 60
RUSSELL 81 53 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
GREAT BEND 81 52 78 53 / 40 10 20 20
SALINA 83 55 80 53 / 50 20 20 30
MCPHERSON 84 56 80 55 / 50 20 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 85 67 83 62 / 60 80 60 90
CHANUTE 85 66 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
IOLA 85 66 82 61 / 70 80 50 80
PARSONS-KPPF 85 67 82 62 / 70 80 60 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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