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000
FXUS63 KDDC 222345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. EAST OF
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY A GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EAST WILL DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. LIFR CEILING IN STATUS AND AREAS
OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING BACK TO
AROUND 1/2MILE, MAINLY AFTER 09Z, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS STATUS AND FOG WILL
BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH BREAKS OF SUN AND VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  54  85 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  51  76  51  85 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  50  76  52  86 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  76  52  85 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  53  83 /  40   0   0   0
P28  56  77  55  86 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT



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000
FXUS63 KTOP 222333 CCA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO IN AVIATION SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Forecast remains low confidence mainly for possible MVFR
conditions after the precip exits. Most guidance including the
objective MOS is suggesting CIGS dropping between 1 and 2 KFT
during the mid morning hours. Think impact of the -SHRA will be
minimal due to limited or no instability and rainfall intensities
remaining light with better forcing staying north of the area. So
forecast is a best guess of when CIGS could fall and then improve
tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters








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000
FXUS63 KICT 222327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z
BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A RAPID DEMISE TO
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AND WITH MORE
INSOLATION...HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THU.

FRI-SAT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS TIMING ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
MAINTAINED MID POPS MON-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TUE-WED WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THE ONGOING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS THURSDAY
MORNING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AT THE KRSL AND KSLN
TERMINALS. THESE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS. EXPECT
LOW-LEVEL BROKEN CLOUD DECK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  76  55  86 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  55  84 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  55  86 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELL         51  75  53  83 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  75  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          56  75  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  53  82 /  60  20   0   0
CHANUTE         57  73  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
IOLA            57  73  54  81 /  60  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  73  53  82 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE TRI STATE REGION SITTING
UNDER A DRIER AIRMASS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH FROM THIS
MORNING EXITING TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL COLORADO ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SUNSET. WILL HAVE MENTION IN
FORECAST. ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE CWA UP FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS WELL GOING LGT/VAR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE AND AMT OF QPF RECEIVED OVER THE CWA WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
EXPECTED. EASTERN ZONES HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST DURING THIS
TIME...BUT STILL WILL AFFECT FOG FORMATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN FORECAST...CARRYING AREAS OF FOG
EAST...PATCHY FOG WEST TO JUST OVER THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
NORTHERLY FLOW TAPERING TO LGT/VAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...BRINGING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID
40S.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...CWA WILL SEE A FEW MORNING HOURS OF FOG
DISSIPATING BY 15Z AS LGT/VAR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A SSW
GRADIENT WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY MID
MORNING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CARRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. 850/500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO BUILD INTO AREA ON SSW FLOW.
WITH 925 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20C-23C RANGE...CWA WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS...AND VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S PUTS PARTS OF OUR CWA
CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS.

GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED SLOWER FOR CHANGE IN PATTERN SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY. GFS REMAINS MUST MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THIS
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE...LEADING TO
MUCH LESS CAA AND LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AS TRACK KEEPS MOISTURE
LIMITED AND BETTER LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA. GEFS ALSO SHOWS MORE OF
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH
THIS WAVE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGER/SLOWER MODEL AND
CLOSES AN UPPER LOW OFF NEAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH STRONGER CAA
AND BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE
ALONG WITH THE ADVERTISED COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
EITHER SOLUTION SHOULD FAVOR A COOLING TREND REFLECTED IN MODEL
CONSENSUS/BLEND. ECMWF WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POSSIBLE HARD
FREEZE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OTHER MODELS NEVER REALLY DROP
LOWS FARTHER THAN 30-35 RANGE. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN GRIDS AS A HEADS UP...BUT ITS STILL FAR ENOUGH NOT TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU 09Z-10Z THURSDAY WITH SKC TRANSITIONING
TO SCT120. AFT 09Z-10Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH VSBY 2-4SM
THROUGH 13Z...THEN VFR WITH SCT200. LIGHT-VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING S-SE 10KTS BY 15Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KTOP 222308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Forecast remains low confidence mainly for possible MVFR
conditions after the precip exits. Most guidance including the
objective MOS is suggesting CIGS dropping between 1 and 2 KFT
during the mod morning hours. Think impact of the -SHRA will be
minimal due to limited or no instability and rainfall intensities
remaining light with better forcing staying north of the area. So
forecast is a best guess of when CIGS could fall and then improve
tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850MB dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper heights remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
forecast to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Forecast remains low confidence mainly for possible MVFR
conditions after the precip exits. Most guidance including the
objective MOS is suggesting CIGS dropping between 1 and 2 KFT
during the mod morning hours. Think impact of the -SHRA will be
minimal due to limited or no instability and rainfall intensities
remaining light with better forcing staying north of the area. So
forecast is a best guess of when CIGS could fall and then improve
tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222041
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850mb dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper hts remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
fcst to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Should have VFR conditions continue for several more hours with
increasing chance for precipitation and mainly minor limitations
as a broken fairly wide band of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms should develop around the terminals. TS should be
brief and isolated at worst so kept mention out. Went ahead with
some MVFR in the more likely times of precip, and continued south
flow should result in low cloud through much of the latter
portions of this forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 222041
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper trough was making eastward progress into the High Plains this
afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery, with fairly continuous
band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of it from the eastern
Dakotas into southwest Texas. Deep south flow has brought
precipitable water values well above normal ahead of the trough with
850mb dewpoints around 10C, but rather warm temps aloft keeping
instability on the low side

Short-range models showing some variation in how the precip will
transpire this evening, but expect most locations should receive at
least something late this afternoon into early Thursday morning as
deep Q-vector convergence and modest frontogenesis pass through.
Dewpoints to around 60 with temps approaching 80 leading to some
surface-based instability in southern areas currently, with minor
convergence at times there, so cannot rule out a rogue cell ahead of
the main area in next few hours. Weak low-level high pressure builds
into north central Kansas late tonight, and there could be enough
clearing with low levels remaining moist for some fog possibilities
and have kept a mention there. Low clouds and their impact on high
temperatures look to be the main forecast challenge for Thursday.
Have trended temps down in southeastern areas where clouds and
precip look to linger the longest, but confidence on cloud trends is
low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Upper ridging will build into the region with much above avg temps
Friday with highs in the 80s aided by southwest sfc winds and
adequate mixing. Upper hts remain quite high Saturday however sfc
winds become more SSE which may result in highs a few degrees
cooler however still well above avg. Windy and warm weather will
persist into Sunday as a trough emerges into the Plains. Lack of
deeper Gulf moisture should result in dry weather Sunday. By
Monday the upper trough will remain to the west with a sfc low
fcst to move into IA/MN by late day. A cold front will sag into
the region but current ECMWF/GFS suggest that warm mid level temps
may inhibit more widespread warm sector convection until Monday
night post frontal or in the case of the ECMWF southern energy
evolves into a cut off low which the most recent operational GFS
does not support. Ensembles are all over the map at this point.
In any case rain/thunderstorms expected later Monday into Tuesday
then turning cooler thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Should have VFR conditions continue for several more hours with
increasing chance for precipitation and mainly minor limitations
as a broken fairly wide band of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms should develop around the terminals. TS should be
brief and isolated at worst so kept mention out. Went ahead with
some MVFR in the more likely times of precip, and continued south
flow should result in low cloud through much of the latter
portions of this forecast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KGLD 222037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE TRI STATE REGION SITTING
UNDER A DRIER AIRMASS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH FROM THIS
MORNING EXITING TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL COLORADO ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SUNSET. WILL HAVE MENTION IN
FORECAST. ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE CWA UP FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS WELL GOING LGT/VAR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE AND AMT OF QPF RECEIVED OVER THE CWA WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
EXPECTED. EASTERN ZONES HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST DURING THIS
TIME...BUT STILL WILL AFFECT FOG FORMATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN FORECAST...CARRYING AREAS OF FOG
EAST...PATCHY FOG WEST TO JUST OVER THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
NORTHERLY FLOW TAPERING TO LGT/VAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...BRINGING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID
40S.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...CWA WILL SEE A FEW MORNING HOURS OF FOG
DISSIPATING BY 15Z AS LGT/VAR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A SSW
GRADIENT WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY MID
MORNING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CARRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. 850/500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO BUILD INTO AREA ON SSW FLOW.
WITH 925 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20C-23C RANGE...CWA WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS...AND VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S PUTS PARTS OF OUR CWA
CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS.

GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED SLOWER FOR CHANGE IN PATTERN SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY. GFS REMAINS MUST MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THIS
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE...LEADING TO
MUCH LESS CAA AND LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AS TRACK KEEPS MOISTURE
LIMITED AND BETTER LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA. GEFS ALSO SHOWS MORE OF
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH
THIS WAVE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGER/SLOWER MODEL AND
CLOSES AN UPPER LOW OFF NEAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH STRONGER CAA
AND BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE
ALONG WITH THE ADVERTISED COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
EITHER SOLUTION SHOULD FAVOR A COOLING TREND REFLECTED IN MODEL
CONSENSUS/BLEND. ECMWF WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POSSIBLE HARD
FREEZE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OTHER MODELS NEVER REALLY DROP
LOWS FARTHER THAN 30-35 RANGE. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN GRIDS AS A HEADS UP...BUT ITS STILL FAR ENOUGH NOT TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 09Z-10Z THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY SCT100-150. AFT 09Z-10Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH
VSBY 2-4SM THROUGH 13Z...THEN VFR WITH SCT200. WINDS NORTH
10-20KTS BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING SW 5-10KTS
BY 13Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 222037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE TRI STATE REGION SITTING
UNDER A DRIER AIRMASS WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH FROM THIS
MORNING EXITING TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL COLORADO ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND
WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SUNSET. WILL HAVE MENTION IN
FORECAST. ANY REMAINING CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET SETTING THE CWA UP FOR CLEARING SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AS WELL GOING LGT/VAR TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE AND AMT OF QPF RECEIVED OVER THE CWA WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
EXPECTED. EASTERN ZONES HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST DURING THIS
TIME...BUT STILL WILL AFFECT FOG FORMATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION IN FORECAST...CARRYING AREAS OF FOG
EAST...PATCHY FOG WEST TO JUST OVER THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
NORTHERLY FLOW TAPERING TO LGT/VAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...BRINGING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MID
40S.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...CWA WILL SEE A FEW MORNING HOURS OF FOG
DISSIPATING BY 15Z AS LGT/VAR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO A SSW
GRADIENT WITH SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. BY MID
MORNING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CARRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME. 850/500 MB RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SW PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY WILL ALLOW FOR WAA TO BUILD INTO AREA ON SSW FLOW.
WITH 925 TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 20C-23C RANGE...CWA WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE
IS ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AS LEE
TROUGH DEEPENS...AND VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S PUTS PARTS OF OUR CWA
CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS.

GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED SLOWER FOR CHANGE IN PATTERN SUN
NIGHT/MONDAY. GFS REMAINS MUST MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THIS
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE...LEADING TO
MUCH LESS CAA AND LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AS TRACK KEEPS MOISTURE
LIMITED AND BETTER LIFT NORTH OF THE CWA. GEFS ALSO SHOWS MORE OF
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH
THIS WAVE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGER/SLOWER MODEL AND
CLOSES AN UPPER LOW OFF NEAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH STRONGER CAA
AND BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INHERITED FROM MODEL BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE
ALONG WITH THE ADVERTISED COOLING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS.
EITHER SOLUTION SHOULD FAVOR A COOLING TREND REFLECTED IN MODEL
CONSENSUS/BLEND. ECMWF WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A POSSIBLE HARD
FREEZE FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OTHER MODELS NEVER REALLY DROP
LOWS FARTHER THAN 30-35 RANGE. I WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FROST
MENTION IN GRIDS AS A HEADS UP...BUT ITS STILL FAR ENOUGH NOT TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 09Z-10Z THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY SCT100-150. AFT 09Z-10Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH
VSBY 2-4SM THROUGH 13Z...THEN VFR WITH SCT200. WINDS NORTH
10-20KTS BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING SW 5-10KTS
BY 13Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 222026
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z
BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A RAPID DEMISE TO
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AND WITH MORE
INSOLATION...HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THU.

FRI-SAT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS TIMING ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
MAINTAINED MID POPS MON-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TUE-WED WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWARD AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AIDED SOME BY EXPECTED RAIN AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  76  55  86 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  55  84 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  55  86 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELL         51  75  53  83 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  75  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          56  75  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  53  82 /  60  20   0   0
CHANUTE         57  73  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
IOLA            57  73  54  81 /  60  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  73  53  82 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 222026
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z
BEFORE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE BRINGS A RAPID DEMISE TO
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LINGERING
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE
70S...HOWEVER NO AIR MASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AND WITH MORE
INSOLATION...HIGHS MAY RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THU.

FRI-SAT...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST BRINGING
RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH A
RECORD OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS TIMING ALTHOUGH LARGE AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN.
MAINTAINED MID POPS MON-MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR TUE-WED WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWARD AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AIDED SOME BY EXPECTED RAIN AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      56  76  55  86 /  70   0   0   0
NEWTON          57  77  55  84 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  77  56  88 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  78  55  86 /  60  10   0   0
RUSSELL         51  75  53  83 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  75  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          56  75  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  55  83 /  70   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     56  73  53  82 /  60  20   0   0
CHANUTE         57  73  54  82 /  60  30   0   0
IOLA            57  73  54  81 /  60  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  73  53  82 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 222010
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TEXAS REGION WITH A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD  ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. A FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS (WESTERN KS, EASTERN
CO). BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SIGNAL WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EITHER RADIATION OR
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES ONLY LOW PROBABILITY. ANOTHER
SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN
ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS INDICATES A PVA ANOMALY
DIGGING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR PRECIPITATION  ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS, WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.  IN THE MEANTIME, WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FRIDAY, AND LOW
80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL  PASSAGE WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING
THROUGH THE 70S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  54  85 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  51  76  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  50  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
P28  56  77  55  86 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221833
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1233 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN CWA
ZONES...AS LAST VESTIGES NEAR BOUNDARY CLEARING THE AREA AT THIS
TIME. LOOKING FOR ENTIRE CWA TO CONTINUE SEEING MSUNNY SKIES FOR
REST OF AFTERNOON W/ HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
BECOMING CLOUDY AS THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ACCORDING TO
LATEST SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.

FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST TRENDS DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...TEMPS
FALLING TOO SLOWLY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. REMOVED FOG
MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE IN
DOUBT AS WELL SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE SOME
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS...EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONFINED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM. STORMS QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST BY 9 PM CDT.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS IMMINENT. RECENT PRECIPITATION...POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE A
TROUGH AXIS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL FACTORS FAVORING FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DENSE. THE NAM12...WRF
ARW AND WRF NMM ALL INDICATE A WIDE SWATH OF DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF A NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SO WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE HWO.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BLOCKING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST IS A TIE OF 84
DEGREES AT KITR. OTHER SITES HAVE RECORDS AROUND 3 DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 09Z-10Z THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY SCT100-150. AFT 09Z-10Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH
VSBY 2-4SM THROUGH 13Z...THEN VFR WITH SCT200. WINDS NORTH
10-20KTS BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING SW 5-10KTS
BY 13Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 221811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR. THERE COULD BE A MARGINAL STORM, BUT EVIDENCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF AGAINST THAN WITH.

THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TOMORROW MORNING IS FOG. NAM AND BOTH CORES OF
THE WRF DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG. HAVE CONTINUED THIS
IN THE GRIDS. FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTHERN ZONES
COULD BE DENSE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT LOOKING AT
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS A SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE NEAR THE
SFC. OTHERWISE, MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND MAXIMUMS TOMORROW IN
THE 70S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO PERCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING
TROUGH FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  54  85 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  51  76  50  84 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  50  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  76  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
P28  56  77  55  86 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 221741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.

This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Should have VFR conditions continue for several more hours with
increasing chance for precipitation and mainly minor limitations
as a broken fairly wide band of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms should develop around the terminals. TS should be
brief and isolated at worst so kept mention out. Went ahead with
some MVFR in the more likely times of precip, and continued south
flow should result in low cloud through much of the latter
portions of this forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.

This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Should have VFR conditions continue for several more hours with
increasing chance for precipitation and mainly minor limitations
as a broken fairly wide band of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms should develop around the terminals. TS should be
brief and isolated at worst so kept mention out. Went ahead with
some MVFR in the more likely times of precip, and continued south
flow should result in low cloud through much of the latter
portions of this forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KGLD 221737
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CWA CLEARING OUT FASTER THAN IN
FORECAST WITH FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CWA...SO HAVE LEFT ONLY
SL CHANCE POPS IN FOR -RW FOR NEXT COUPLE HRS FOR EASTERN
ZONES...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. REST OF CWA MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
REST OF DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
BECOMING CLOUDY AS THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ACCORDING TO
LATEST SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.

FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST TRENDS DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...TEMPS
FALLING TOO SLOWLY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. REMOVED FOG
MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE IN
DOUBT AS WELL SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE SOME
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS...EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONFINED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM. STORMS QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST BY 9 PM CDT.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS IMMINENT. RECENT PRECIPITATION...POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE A
TROUGH AXIS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL FACTORS FAVORING FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DENSE. THE NAM12...WRF
ARW AND WRF NMM ALL INDICATE A WIDE SWATH OF DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF A NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SO WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE HWO.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BLOCKING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST IS A TIE OF 84
DEGREES AT KITR. OTHER SITES HAVE RECORDS AROUND 3 DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 09Z-10Z THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY SCT100-150. AFT 09Z-10Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH
VSBY 2-4SM THROUGH 13Z...THEN VFR WITH SCT200. WINDS NORTH
10-20KTS BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING SW 5-10KTS
BY 13Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221737
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CWA CLEARING OUT FASTER THAN IN
FORECAST WITH FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CWA...SO HAVE LEFT ONLY
SL CHANCE POPS IN FOR -RW FOR NEXT COUPLE HRS FOR EASTERN
ZONES...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. REST OF CWA MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
REST OF DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
BECOMING CLOUDY AS THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ACCORDING TO
LATEST SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.

FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST TRENDS DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...TEMPS
FALLING TOO SLOWLY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. REMOVED FOG
MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE IN
DOUBT AS WELL SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE SOME
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS...EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONFINED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM. STORMS QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST BY 9 PM CDT.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS IMMINENT. RECENT PRECIPITATION...POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE A
TROUGH AXIS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL FACTORS FAVORING FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DENSE. THE NAM12...WRF
ARW AND WRF NMM ALL INDICATE A WIDE SWATH OF DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF A NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SO WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE HWO.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BLOCKING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST IS A TIE OF 84
DEGREES AT KITR. OTHER SITES HAVE RECORDS AROUND 3 DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 09Z-10Z THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY SCT100-150. AFT 09Z-10Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG WITH
VSBY 2-4SM THROUGH 13Z...THEN VFR WITH SCT200. WINDS NORTH
10-20KTS BECM LGT/VAR BY 00Z THURSDAY...THEN BECOMING SW 5-10KTS
BY 13Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 221716
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWARD AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AIDED SOME BY EXPECTED RAIN AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  50  60  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  40  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  59  75  57 /  30  50  10  10
RUSSELL         77  51  74  54 /  60  60   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  60  60   0   0
SALINA          80  56  75  55 /  60  70   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  57  75  55 /  50  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  55 /  20  50  30  10
IOLA            76  57  75  54 /  20  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 221716
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAK MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWARD AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. SCATTERED-BROKEN
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AIDED SOME BY EXPECTED RAIN AND LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  50  60  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  40  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  59  75  57 /  30  50  10  10
RUSSELL         77  51  74  54 /  60  60   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  60  60   0   0
SALINA          80  56  75  55 /  60  70   0   0
MCPHERSON       79  57  75  55 /  50  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  55 /  20  50  30  10
IOLA            76  57  75  54 /  20  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 221702
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1102 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CWA CLEARING OUT FASTER THAN IN
FORECAST WITH FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CWA...SO HAVE LEFT ONLY
SL CHANCE POPS IN FOR -RW FOR NEXT COUPLE HRS FOR EASTERN
ZONES...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. REST OF CWA MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
REST OF DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
BECOMING CLOUDY AS THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ACCORDING TO
LATEST SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.

FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST TRENDS DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...TEMPS
FALLING TOO SLOWLY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. REMOVED FOG
MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE IN
DOUBT AS WELL SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE SOME
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS...EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONFINED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM. STORMS QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST BY 9 PM CDT.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS IMMINENT. RECENT PRECIPITATION...POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE A
TROUGH AXIS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL FACTORS FAVORING FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DENSE. THE NAM12...WRF
ARW AND WRF NMM ALL INDICATE A WIDE SWATH OF DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF A NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SO WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE HWO.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BLOCKING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST IS A TIE OF 84
DEGREES AT KITR. OTHER SITES HAVE RECORDS AROUND 3 DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF TAF SITES. A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES AND
A STORM MAY DEVELOP NEAR KMCK AROUND TO JUST AFTER MID-DAY.
OVERALL...LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES SO
REMOVED PREVAILING WEATHER GROUPS AND REPLACED WITH VCSH/VCTS. NEXT
AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF SITES AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...
APPROACHING BOTH SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z. PLACED A MENTION INTO TAF
BUT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IF FOG IS ABLE TO
REACH TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221702
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1102 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST IN ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CWA CLEARING OUT FASTER THAN IN
FORECAST WITH FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CWA...SO HAVE LEFT ONLY
SL CHANCE POPS IN FOR -RW FOR NEXT COUPLE HRS FOR EASTERN
ZONES...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. REST OF CWA MOSTLY SUNNY FOR
REST OF DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
BECOMING CLOUDY AS THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ACCORDING TO
LATEST SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.

FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST TRENDS DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...TEMPS
FALLING TOO SLOWLY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. REMOVED FOG
MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE IN
DOUBT AS WELL SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE SOME
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS...EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONFINED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM. STORMS QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST BY 9 PM CDT.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS IMMINENT. RECENT PRECIPITATION...POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE A
TROUGH AXIS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL FACTORS FAVORING FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DENSE. THE NAM12...WRF
ARW AND WRF NMM ALL INDICATE A WIDE SWATH OF DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF A NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SO WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE HWO.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BLOCKING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST IS A TIE OF 84
DEGREES AT KITR. OTHER SITES HAVE RECORDS AROUND 3 DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF TAF SITES. A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES AND
A STORM MAY DEVELOP NEAR KMCK AROUND TO JUST AFTER MID-DAY.
OVERALL...LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES SO
REMOVED PREVAILING WEATHER GROUPS AND REPLACED WITH VCSH/VCTS. NEXT
AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF SITES AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...
APPROACHING BOTH SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z. PLACED A MENTION INTO TAF
BUT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IF FOG IS ABLE TO
REACH TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 221700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 221700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOWING THAT KHYS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AN IMPACTED TERMINAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KGCK/KHYS
AND WITH MVFR AT KDDC TOMORROW MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BR AND REDUCED
VIS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ON THE AREAL EXTENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221431
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
831 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE SENT OUT FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCT FOR AREAL
COVERAGE/MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...NO EARLY
TRW ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN FORECAST
FOR NOW AS DAY PROGRESSES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME CONVECTION
MAY STILL FIRE UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
BECOMING CLOUDY AS THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ACCORDING TO
LATEST SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.

FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST TRENDS DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...TEMPS
FALLING TOO SLOWLY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. REMOVED FOG
MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE IN
DOUBT AS WELL SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE SOME
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS...EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONFINED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM. STORMS QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST BY 9 PM CDT.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS IMMINENT. RECENT PRECIPITATION...POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE A
TROUGH AXIS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL FACTORS FAVORING FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DENSE. THE NAM12...WRF
ARW AND WRF NMM ALL INDICATE A WIDE SWATH OF DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF A NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SO WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE HWO.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BLOCKING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST IS A TIE OF 84
DEGREES AT KITR. OTHER SITES HAVE RECORDS AROUND 3 DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF TAF SITES. A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES AND
A STORM MAY DEVELOP NEAR KMCK AROUND TO JUST AFTER MID-DAY.
OVERALL...LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES SO
REMOVED PREVAILING WEATHER GROUPS AND REPLACED WITH VCSH/VCTS. NEXT
AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF SITES AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...
APPROACHING BOTH SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z. PLACED A MENTION INTO TAF
BUT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IF FOG IS ABLE TO
REACH TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 221352
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
852 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATE FOR MESOSCALE TRENDS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT WSR-88D TRENDS WITH A
PREFERENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AROUND THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO 305 KELVIN ISENTROPIC LIFT. CLOUDS BASES ARE RELATIVELY
HIGH (8-12KFT), SO EXPECT VERY LITTLE, IF ANY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH VFR
CEILINGS. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KICT 221143
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WILL AFFECT HUT-ICT
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCT-BKN VFR CIGS AROUND 6000 FT AGL
AFFECTING CNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FOR
NOW COVERED THIS THREAT WITH VCSH...ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO INSERT PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AND/OR TEMPO
GROUPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH RSL AROUND 18Z...ICT-SLN-HUT
AROUND 22-23Z AND CNU AROUND 04Z. ONCE THE RAIN PASSES TO THE EAST
LATER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MVFR
TO POTENTIALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS...GREATEST CHANCES GENERALLY WEST OF
I-135.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  20  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  30  50  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  30  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  20  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  75  57 /  20  50  10  10
RUSSELL         78  51  74  54 /  50  50   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  50  50   0   0
SALINA          79  56  75  55 /  40  60   0   0
MCPHERSON       80  57  75  55 /  30  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     78  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  55 /  10  50  30  10
IOLA            77  57  75  54 /  10  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    78  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KDDC 221141
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
641 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH VFR
CEILINGS. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND HAVE KEPT THE VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  50  40   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  60  40   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
530 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
BECOMING CLOUDY AS THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ACCORDING TO
LATEST SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.

FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST TRENDS DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...TEMPS
FALLING TOO SLOWLY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. REMOVED FOG
MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE IN
DOUBT AS WELL SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE SOME
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS...EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONFINED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM. STORMS QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST BY 9 PM CDT.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS IMMINENT. RECENT PRECIPITATION...POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE A
TROUGH AXIS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL FACTORS FAVORING FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DENSE. THE NAM12...WRF
ARW AND WRF NMM ALL INDICATE A WIDE SWATH OF DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF A NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SO WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE HWO.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BLOCKING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST IS A TIE OF 84
DEGREES AT KITR. OTHER SITES HAVE RECORDS AROUND 3 DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH TODAY...BRINGING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF TAF SITES. A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES AND
A STORM MAY DEVELOP NEAR KMCK AROUND TO JUST AFTER MID-DAY.
OVERALL...LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES SO
REMOVED PREVAILING WEATHER GROUPS AND REPLACED WITH VCSH/VCTS. NEXT
AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD
FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF SITES AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE...
APPROACHING BOTH SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z. PLACED A MENTION INTO TAF
BUT THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG IF FOG IS ABLE TO
REACH TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 221127
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.

This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR conditions expected through the daytime hours. There may be
occasional gusts around 18 to 22 mph at TOP/FOE during mid day. A
band of showers will move through the taf sites later this evening
and overnight. There could be isolated thunder during this time
frame. Vis and or cigs may decrease after the rain towards the end of
the period at MHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KGLD 220903
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
BECOMING CLOUDY AS THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN. WINDS
ARE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO MID 50S TO
LOW 60S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO. ACCORDING TO
LATEST SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.

FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH EVENING...STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
PROGRESSES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LATEST TRENDS DIMINISHED CONFIDENCE
IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...TEMPS
FALLING TOO SLOWLY AND DENSE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN. REMOVED FOG
MENTION FOR THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A LITTLE IN
DOUBT AS WELL SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHERE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE SOME
SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES STORMS DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS...EUROPEAN
AND CANADIAN MODELS DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A MCCOOK
NEBRASKA TO COLBY TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CONFINED HIGHEST POPS EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500-800 J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7 C/KM. STORMS QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING...
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST BY 9 PM CDT.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS
SEEMS IMMINENT. RECENT PRECIPITATION...POOLING DEWPOINTS ALONG THE A
TROUGH AXIS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALL FACTORS FAVORING FOG DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY DENSE. THE NAM12...WRF
ARW AND WRF NMM ALL INDICATE A WIDE SWATH OF DENSE FOG...PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF A NEBRASKA TO GOODLAND TO TRIBUNE LINE. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
HIGH IN YET ANOTHER DENSE FOG EVENT SO WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE HWO.

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH REST OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BLOCKING ANY MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ASSURED...POSSIBLY REACHING AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. MAY APPROACH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY RECORD CURRENTLY FORECAST IS A TIE OF 84
DEGREES AT KITR. OTHER SITES HAVE RECORDS AROUND 3 DEGREES HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 08Z WHEN MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE...CONTINUING UNTIL 13Z-14Z.

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO WILL WORK EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING TROUGH OVER
CO-WY WILL MOVE CLOSER TO TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AT KGLD AND 15Z AT
KMCK. CEILINGS VCNTY PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW-N BY 18Z WED...GRADUALLY VEERING TO NE-E BY
00Z THU.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220849
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TONIGHT...

LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST IS GIVING A NICE WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COMBINATION IS PROVIDING THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
SSE FLOW...LIFTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE M70S UP TO THE L80S WITH
MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. GOING INTO TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...CWA WILL SEE CONTINUING OF SYNOPTIC SETUP INITIALLY.
EXPECTING AREA TO SEE FAIRLY DECENT NIGHT WITH GRADIENT REMAINING
INITIALLY BUT SLACKENING SOME BY MIDNIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...MODELS DO
BRING TROUGH SLOWLY OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING
EDGE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WITH SOME LIGHT -RW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
BY 12Z WED. QPF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. BY 08Z WED...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE CLOUDS OVERRUN AREA. BASED ON LATEST DEWPTS FROM OBS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE...LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S
WEST TO THE M50S EAST. THESE NUMBERS WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT/PUSH OF
CLOUD COVER PUSHING INTO AREA TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING HRS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COMBO WILL BE SLOWED BY BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI. WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER W/ -RW. BEST CHANCES FOR -TRW ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES...DUE TO MORNING TIMING OVER
WESTERN CWA. LIGHT/MODERATE -RW COULD BRING A RANGE OF 0.02-0.20"
QPF POTENTIAL. EARLY HIGHS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN ZONES...DUE TO WIND
SHIFT WITH SURFACE FROPA... SO BRING THESE LOCALES MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE
NEW ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE REALLY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE REFLECTION
WITH THE ECMWFS FROPA MUCH SLOWER ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.

CONSIDERING THIS SLOWER UPPER TROUGH SPEED AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INDUCING A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
WHICH WOULD SLOW UP THE FRONT...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH MY
NEIGHBORS...DID ADJUST SUNDAY MAXES UP A LITTLE...NOT AS MUCH AS
THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE...CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES VALID RESERVATIONS.

SINCE THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH...IT IS
BRINGING COLDER AIR IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAN THE OTHER OUTPUT.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME...AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THIS CONSIDERING
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM NOT BEING ABLE
TO TAP INTO A LOT OF AIR AT ALL. SO OTHER OUTPUT DID SUPPORT THE
INIT TEMPERATURES I WAS GIVEN NOT ONLY ON MONDAY BUT FOR THE
REMAINING PERIODS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODELS HAVE CUT
BACK ON QPF A LITTLE AND THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF THE SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...INIT GAVE ME A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THAT IS REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE
INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH. THAT SEEMS FINE FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION FIELD BEING A LITTLE LARGER. NO MATTER WHAT DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 08Z WHEN MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE...CONTINUING UNTIL 13Z-14Z.

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO WILL WORK EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING TROUGH OVER
CO-WY WILL MOVE CLOSER TO TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AT KGLD AND 15Z AT
KMCK. CEILINGS VCNTY PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW-N BY 18Z WED...GRADUALLY VEERING TO NE-E BY
00Z THU.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KICT 220822
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN ND DOWN INTO EASTERN CO WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

SHOWERS AND AN ISO STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROGRESSES EAST. PRECIP WILL START
TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE OPEN NATURE AND FAST
MOVEMENT OF THIS IMPULSE WILL LIMIT ANY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
MOST SITES PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF INCH. EVEN WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY. BY THUR
MORNING ONLY EASTERN KS WILL STILL BE EXPERIENCING PRECIP.

AFTER THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
WILL BE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 18 TO 20C RANGE WHICH SHOULD
GIVE HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BRINGING SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ONSHORE SUN AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN DIGGING THIS FEATURE WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MORE PRECIP FOR THE AREA MON INTO MON NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT HIT THE POP
THROTTLE TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE VERIFIES
FEEL CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUE.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT SOME TERMINALS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE KRSL AND KSLN TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE KHUT AND KICT TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  58  79  57 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      79  57  77  56 /  50  50  10   0
NEWTON          79  58  76  57 /  40  50  10   0
ELDORADO        80  60  77  57 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  59  75  57 /  30  50  10  10
RUSSELL         78  51  74  54 /  50  50   0   0
GREAT BEND      77  52  75  54 /  50  50   0   0
SALINA          79  56  75  55 /  50  60   0   0
MCPHERSON       80  57  75  55 /  50  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     77  56  73  54 /  10  40  30  10
CHANUTE         77  57  76  54 /  20  50  30  10
IOLA            76  57  75  54 /  20  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    77  57  75  54 /  10  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220809
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
309 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Current indications are that the mid/upper level trough is exiting
the Rockies this morning as it continues to lift to the east
northeast. A shortwave within the trough was located over Colorado,
and that energy will pass over the area later this evening and
overnight. Ahead the approaching trough mid level warm advection has
begun across far eastern KS as evident from the stratocumulus deck
seen forming on IR. The NAM is the most aggressive with the
isentropic lift, which maximizes near the MO/KS state between
10-14Z. Therefore have kept sprinkles in the forecast for those
locations. Later today high temperatures reach the mid to upper 70s
across the area with the exception of a low 80s in some western
counties.

This evening the trough advances through the central plains, which
will provide the lift needed for a band of showers to progress
across eastern KS. The better frontogenesis appears to stay north of
the area, and indeed the surface reflection associated with this
system may not be that obvious. Forecast amounts are around a
quarter of an inch for most locations. Models are still indicating
weak instability despite the poor lapse rates so isolated thunder
will still be possible. Precip should arrive to north central KS
around 21Z, the Topeka area by 06Z, and be confined to far eastern
KS by 12Z. Soundings show that as the precip ends the lack of any
dry air advection with the persistent southerly flow could lead to
fog and eventually low stratus. At this point it is difficult to pin
down the extent, but have added patchy fog to the forecast across
north central KS where there is a better possibility of clouds
clearing out before 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Thursday, the upper level trough will move across eastern KS during
the morning hours. The lingering showers and perhaps an isolated
elevated thunderstorms will move east into MO during the mid and
late morning hours. The weak front that will move into central KS
will under go frontolysis as a lee trough begins to deepen across
the central high plains. Clouds will decrease across the western
counties through the morning hours and skies should become partly
cloudy into the afternoon hours across the eastern counties of the
CWA. Highs will reach the mid 70s as insolation helps to warm
temperatures through the afternoon hours.

Thursday night through Sunday Night, Summer like temperatures will
occur across the region as an upper level ridge across the western
US builds east across the central and southern plains. Highs Friday
will reach the lower to mid 80s. Highs may cool back to the upper
70s to around 80 on Saturday as weak back door cold front moves
southwest across the CWA early Saturday morning switching winds to
the northeast and east. The next H5 trough will move into the
central Rockies on Sunday. The lee surface trough across high plains
will deepen during the day Sunday and southerly winds across the CWA
will cause temperatures to warm back into the lower to mid 80s
Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Tuesday, the upper level trough across the central
Rockies will move east across the plains. A cold front will pushes
east across the CWA late Monday afternoon. The combination of
ascent ahead of the approaching H5 trough and surface convergence
ahead of the front will cause showers and isolated thunderstorms
to develop across the CWA during the afternoon hours of Monday. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night
before ending early Tuesday morning as the H5 trough lifts
northeast towards the mid MS river valley and the cold front
pushes southeast of the CWA. Highs on Monday ahead of the front
should reach the lower to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be closer
to seasonal norms, with highs in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KDDC 220740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THIS FEATURE
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 70 DEGREES AND
HIGHS IN THE 60 ON TUESDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  52  77  54 /  40  50   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  74  49  79  52 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  74  52  79  52 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  74  52 /  50  50   0   0
P28  79  56  80  55 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 220642
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TODAY WILL START OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS, AND WITH MILD SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 12 TO 14 MPH.  AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THE WEST.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
INTRODUCED IN THE WEST BY 17Z, WITH POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CAPE OR BULK SHEAR TO
WARRANT ANY SEVERE STORMS. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, RANGING FROM 45 TO 54 PERCENT IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES. I RAN THE QPF_FM_POP TOOL, AND THEN INCREASED QPF IN OUR
EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES TO NEAR 0.10 FROM 00Z TO 06Z, TO BETTER
MATCH UP WITH OUR EASTERN NEIGHBORS.

THIS WAVE IS RATHER FAST MOVING, AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
END IN THE WEST BY 00Z, AND ACROSS MY EASTERN ZONES BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP BY NOON TODAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH,
AND SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25
MPH.  WINDS WILL THEN RECEDE AFTER THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH PASSES
THIS EVENING, AND RETURN TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AT 10 MPH OR SO.
AS FOR HIGHS TODAY, THEY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
WEST AROUND SYRACUSE TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD START CLEARING OUT FAIRLY EARLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS.  WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND WITH THE FRESH PRECIP ON THE
GROUND, THERE COULD BE SOME RATHER THICK FOG FORM TOWARDS MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED AREAS OF 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG IN
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 09Z. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
NEAR-DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP IS UP FOR QUESTION.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  53  77  53 /  40  50   0   0
GCK  76  49  77  50 /  30  20   0   0
EHA  73  49  78  51 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  75  52  79  52 /  30  20   0   0
HYS  75  51  73  52 /  60  70   0   0
P28  77  56  79  55 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 220521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  77  53  84 /  50   0   0   0
GCK  49  77  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  49  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  79  52  84 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  70   0   0   0
P28  56  79  55  85 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 220521
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AROUND
13-15KTS THIS MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST AT 15G25KT LATER TODAY.
CONVECTION WAS INTRODUCED AFTER 22Z AT GCK, 23Z AT DDC AND 01Z AT
HYS. THESE STORMS DO NOT LOOK TOO STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY REDUCE
CIGS TO BKN030-040.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  77  53  84 /  50   0   0   0
GCK  49  77  50  84 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  49  78  51  84 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  52  79  52  84 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  51  73  52  83 /  70   0   0   0
P28  56  79  55  85 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220501
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TONIGHT...

LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST IS GIVING A NICE WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COMBINATION IS PROVIDING THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
SSE FLOW...LIFTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE M70S UP TO THE L80S WITH
MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. GOING INTO TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...CWA WILL SEE CONTINUING OF SYNOPTIC SETUP INITIALLY.
EXPECTING AREA TO SEE FAIRLY DECENT NIGHT WITH GRADIENT REMAINING
INITIALLY BUT SLACKENING SOME BY MIDNIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...MODELS DO
BRING TROUGH SLOWLY OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING
EDGE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WITH SOME LIGHT -RW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
BY 12Z WED. QPF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. BY 08Z WED...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE CLOUDS OVERRUN AREA. BASED ON LATEST DEWPTS FROM OBS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE...LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S
WEST TO THE M50S EAST. THESE NUMBERS WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT/PUSH OF
CLOUD COVER PUSHING INTO AREA TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING HRS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COMBO WILL BE SLOWED BY BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI. WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER W/ -RW. BEST CHANCES FOR -TRW ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES...DUE TO MORNING TIMING OVER
WESTERN CWA. LIGHT/MODERATE -RW COULD BRING A RANGE OF 0.02-0.20"
QPF POTENTIAL. EARLY HIGHS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN ZONES...DUE TO WIND
SHIFT WITH SURFACE FROPA... SO BRING THESE LOCALES MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A MENTION OF FOG OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MOST
RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN...BUT MODELS INDICATE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.  SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE RIDGE.

THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.  AT
THIS TIME MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL BE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
FURTHER SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL BE THE BETTER THE RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL BE FOR THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 08Z WHEN MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE...CONTINUING UNTIL 13Z-14Z.

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO WILL WORK EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING TROUGH OVER
CO-WY WILL MOVE CLOSER TO TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AT KGLD AND 15Z AT
KMCK. CEILINGS VCNTY PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW-N BY 18Z WED...GRADUALLY VEERING TO NE-E BY
00Z THU.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 220501
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TONIGHT...

LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST IS GIVING A NICE WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COMBINATION IS PROVIDING THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
SSE FLOW...LIFTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE M70S UP TO THE L80S WITH
MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. GOING INTO TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...CWA WILL SEE CONTINUING OF SYNOPTIC SETUP INITIALLY.
EXPECTING AREA TO SEE FAIRLY DECENT NIGHT WITH GRADIENT REMAINING
INITIALLY BUT SLACKENING SOME BY MIDNIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...MODELS DO
BRING TROUGH SLOWLY OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING
EDGE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WITH SOME LIGHT -RW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
BY 12Z WED. QPF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. BY 08Z WED...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE CLOUDS OVERRUN AREA. BASED ON LATEST DEWPTS FROM OBS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE...LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S
WEST TO THE M50S EAST. THESE NUMBERS WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT/PUSH OF
CLOUD COVER PUSHING INTO AREA TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING HRS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COMBO WILL BE SLOWED BY BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI. WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER W/ -RW. BEST CHANCES FOR -TRW ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES...DUE TO MORNING TIMING OVER
WESTERN CWA. LIGHT/MODERATE -RW COULD BRING A RANGE OF 0.02-0.20"
QPF POTENTIAL. EARLY HIGHS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN ZONES...DUE TO WIND
SHIFT WITH SURFACE FROPA... SO BRING THESE LOCALES MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A MENTION OF FOG OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MOST
RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN...BUT MODELS INDICATE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.  SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE RIDGE.

THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.  AT
THIS TIME MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL BE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
FURTHER SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL BE THE BETTER THE RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL BE FOR THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 08Z WHEN MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE...CONTINUING UNTIL 13Z-14Z.

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER COLORADO WILL WORK EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
CURRENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING TROUGH OVER
CO-WY WILL MOVE CLOSER TO TERMINALS AFTER 12Z AT KGLD AND 15Z AT
KMCK. CEILINGS VCNTY PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NW-N BY 18Z WED...GRADUALLY VEERING TO NE-E BY
00Z THU.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KICT 220458
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAC
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S WHICH REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

FRIDAY...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST A FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT SOME TERMINALS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE KRSL AND KSLN TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE KHUT AND KICT TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  81  57  76 /  10  10  50  10
HUTCHINSON      56  79  55  74 /  10  30  50  10
NEWTON          56  78  56  74 /  10  20  50  10
ELDORADO        56  82  56  75 /  10  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  81  58  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         56  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      55  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
SALINA          56  77  56  74 /   0  30  60   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  56  73 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30
CHANUTE         51  76  54  73 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  76  54  72 /   0  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 220458
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAC
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S WHICH REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

FRIDAY...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST A FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE THE TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT SOME TERMINALS. AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY. RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT THE KRSL AND KSLN TERMINALS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE KHUT AND KICT TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  81  57  76 /  10  10  50  10
HUTCHINSON      56  79  55  74 /  10  30  50  10
NEWTON          56  78  56  74 /  10  20  50  10
ELDORADO        56  82  56  75 /  10  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  81  58  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         56  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      55  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
SALINA          56  77  56  74 /   0  30  60   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  56  73 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30
CHANUTE         51  76  54  73 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  76  54  72 /   0  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 220429
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220429
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1129 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The NAM has seemed to develop the light precip this morning closer
to the MO state line, and since the RAP and HRRR continue to keep
the terminals dry will maintain a dry forecast. Stratocu deck is
just now beginning to form. Most guidance points to this deck
remaining above 3 KFT. So expect VFR conditions to prevail. Upper
trough moves across the area overnight with very limited
instability. There may be enough forcing within the moisture axis
for some light showers, which appear more likely aft 06Z for TOP
and FOE. Will include a TEMPO for -SHRA late in the evening for
MHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KGLD 212351
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TONIGHT...

LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST IS GIVING A NICE WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COMBINATION IS PROVIDING THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
SSE FLOW...LIFTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE M70S UP TO THE L80S WITH
MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. GOING INTO TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...CWA WILL SEE CONTINUING OF SYNOPTIC SETUP INITIALLY.
EXPECTING AREA TO SEE FAIRLY DECENT NIGHT WITH GRADIENT REMAINING
INITIALLY BUT SLACKENING SOME BY MIDNIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...MODELS DO
BRING TROUGH SLOWLY OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING
EDGE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WITH SOME LIGHT -RW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
BY 12Z WED. QPF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. BY 08Z WED...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE CLOUDS OVERRUN AREA. BASED ON LATEST DEWPTS FROM OBS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE...LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S
WEST TO THE M50S EAST. THESE NUMBERS WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT/PUSH OF
CLOUD COVER PUSHING INTO AREA TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING HRS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COMBO WILL BE SLOWED BY BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI. WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER W/ -RW. BEST CHANCES FOR -TRW ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES...DUE TO MORNING TIMING OVER
WESTERN CWA. LIGHT/MODERATE -RW COULD BRING A RANGE OF 0.02-0.20"
QPF POTENTIAL. EARLY HIGHS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN ZONES...DUE TO WIND
SHIFT WITH SURFACE FROPA... SO BRING THESE LOCALES MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A MENTION OF FOG OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MOST
RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN...BUT MODELS INDICATE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.  SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE RIDGE.

THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.  AT
THIS TIME MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL BE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
FURTHER SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL BE THE BETTER THE RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL BE FOR THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS BOTH TAF SITES THRU 08Z WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED MID
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. AFTER 08Z...MVFR FOG THRU
12Z-15Z WITH VSBY DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES. AFTER 12-15Z...VCSH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS FL050/FL100 THROUGH ABOUT 21Z WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS 10-20KTS DECREASING TO 10-12KTS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN NORTHWEST 18-21Z AS WEAK
COLD FRONT PASSES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KICT 212331
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAC
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S WHICH REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

FRIDAY...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST A FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
TIMING OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING SKY COVER. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT THE KRSL AND KSLN
TERMINALS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THAT TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED
WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS NOT HIGH. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT
MENTIONS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BUT MENTIONS OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF FORECASTS.

RITZMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  81  57  76 /  10  10  50  10
HUTCHINSON      56  79  55  74 /  10  30  50  10
NEWTON          56  78  56  74 /  10  20  50  10
ELDORADO        56  82  56  75 /  10  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  81  58  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         56  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      55  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
SALINA          56  77  56  74 /   0  30  60   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  56  73 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30
CHANUTE         51  76  54  73 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  76  54  72 /   0  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 212310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE 18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE
IMPROVING IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
800 TO 700MB LEVEL WITH SOME SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM BECOMING POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME BASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT INCLUDE SHRA/TSRA IN THE 00Z TERMINAL.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  75  53  77 /   0  40  50   0
GCK  53  76  49  77 /   0  30  20   0
EHA  52  73  49  78 /   0  20  10   0
LBL  53  75  52  79 /   0  30  20   0
HYS  55  75  51  73 /   0  60  70   0
P28  56  77  56  79 /   0  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 212310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE 18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE
IMPROVING IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
800 TO 700MB LEVEL WITH SOME SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM BECOMING POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME BASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT INCLUDE SHRA/TSRA IN THE 00Z TERMINAL.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  75  53  77 /   0  40  50   0
GCK  53  76  49  77 /   0  30  20   0
EHA  52  73  49  78 /   0  20  10   0
LBL  53  75  52  79 /   0  30  20   0
HYS  55  75  51  73 /   0  60  70   0
P28  56  77  56  79 /   0  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KTOP 212239
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue to show some moisture advection and isentropic
lift between 900MB and 850MB after 06Z. Only the NAM forecast
soundings suggest there is any instability with the RAP and GFS
maintaining some inhibition above this layer. Therefore will
maintain a dry forecast for the terminals overnight and monitor
trends. Larger scale forcing does not affect the area tomorrow
until after 00Z, so the forecast has VFR conditions persisting.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 212239
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
539 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trough continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trough
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trough with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trough still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trough comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Models continue to show some moisture advection and isentropic
lift between 900MB and 850MB after 06Z. Only the NAM forecast
soundings suggest there is any instability with the RAP and GFS
maintaining some inhibition above this layer. Therefore will
maintain a dry forecast for the terminals overnight and monitor
trends. Larger scale forcing does not affect the area tomorrow
until after 00Z, so the forecast has VFR conditions persisting.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KDDC 212043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-13 KTS. WITH THE LOSS OF
THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AOA100 IS EXPECTED BY 12-18Z
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES; BUT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  75  53  77 /  10  40  50   0
GCK  53  76  49  77 /  10  30  20   0
EHA  52  73  49  78 /  10  20  10   0
LBL  53  75  52  79 /  10  30  20   0
HYS  55  75  51  73 /  10  60  70   0
P28  56  77  56  79 /  10  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 212017
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

At 3 PM this afternoon, water vapor imagery showed much of the
Plains region underneath upper ridging while the shortwave trough
was deepening across Idaho into southern Montana. Gusty southerly
winds at the surface were observed advecting moisture into central
KS as dewpoint temperatures were increasing to near 60 degrees.
Across northeast Kansas, highs were a tad cooler in the middle 70s
while influence from the sfc ridge to our east kept surface air
drier with dewpoints dropping into the lower 40s.

Surface trough deepens over eastern CO this evening inducing an
h85 low level jet to increase around 30 kts. Moisture advects
northeastward into the CWA as dewpoints rise into the 50s
overnight. Mixing between h85 and the surface also increases to
near 10 kts over north central areas where low level stratus
appears more likely as opposed to fog. Weak isentropic lift at the
300K surface seen from the NAM and 4-km WRF models show
development of isolated activity over far eastern KS just before
sunrise. With forcing being particularly weak and saturation being
brief in the morning, decided to mention a few sprinkles being
possible. Otherwise focus turns to the incoming trough Wednesday
afternoon with slight chances of precip mentioned after 18Z.
Timing between short term and mid term guidance shows the optimal
lift arriving in north central areas near 00Z, however could not
rule out scattered showers during the afternoon. Elevated
instability seen in only a few hundred J/KG may result in isolated
thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Upper trof continues to move across the forecast area in the early
morning hours on Thursday. Lapse rates and CAPE remain rather weak,
and progressive nature keeps chances for heavy rainfall on the low
side. Have precipitation clearing the area by Noon, but could be a
few hours faster. This keeps overnight lows in the 50s, and highs
still manage to make it back into the lower 70s after the trof
passes.

In terms of sensible weather, Friday through Sunday continue to
bring above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s near
80 each day and lows in the 50s. Winds initially vary a bit as low
pressure passes to our north, but come around out of the south by
late Saturday and increase on Sunday afternoon. Flow aloft makes a
shift from a passing upper ridge to an approaching trof with SW
flow over the state.

Timing of the next upper trof still in question, although both GFS
and latest EC bring the next front through on Monday afternoon. EC
had split the energy into northern and southern tracks but now
seems to be coming toward a single more progressive single wave.
Kept lower end rain chances on Monday, which could continue into
Tuesday if system slows a bit as EC suggests. May be cooler across
the NW counties on Monday as trof comes in and cooler on Tuesday
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR expected at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as southeast winds blo 10 kts
prevail through Wednesday morning. Outside chance of an isolated
shower impacting KFOE/KTOP otherwise forecast soundings show
increasing moisture and broken stratus developing near 4 kft from
09Z to 13Z. If showers develop near sites, scattered MVFR cigs are
possible.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KGLD 212016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TONIGHT...

LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST IS GIVING A NICE WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COMBINATION IS PROVIDING THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
SSE FLOW...LIFTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE M70S UP TO THE L80S WITH
MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. GOING INTO TONIGHT AND THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...CWA WILL SEE CONTINUING OF SYNOPTIC SETUP INITIALLY.
EXPECTING AREA TO SEE FAIRLY DECENT NIGHT WITH GRADIENT REMAINING
INITIALLY BUT SLACKENING SOME BY MIDNIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...MODELS DO
BRING TROUGH SLOWLY OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PLAINS REGION
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING
EDGE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WITH SOME LIGHT -RW OVER EASTERN COLORADO
BY 12Z WED. QPF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. BY 08Z WED...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS ZONES WILL SEE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
BEFORE CLOUDS OVERRUN AREA. BASED ON LATEST DEWPTS FROM OBS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE...LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE U40S
WEST TO THE M50S EAST. THESE NUMBERS WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT/PUSH OF
CLOUD COVER PUSHING INTO AREA TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

EARLY MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT TRAVERSING THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING HRS INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM COMBO WILL BE SLOWED BY BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI. WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER W/ -RW. BEST CHANCES FOR -TRW ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES...DUE TO MORNING TIMING OVER
WESTERN CWA. LIGHT/MODERATE -RW COULD BRING A RANGE OF 0.02-0.20"
QPF POTENTIAL. EARLY HIGHS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN ZONES...DUE TO WIND
SHIFT WITH SURFACE FROPA... SO BRING THESE LOCALES MID TO UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WEDNESDAY EVENING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING STORMS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A MENTION OF FOG OVER THE EAST WHERE THE MOST
RAIN WILL HAVE FALLEN...BUT MODELS INDICATE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.  SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER THE RIDGE.

THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.  AT
THIS TIME MODELS DISAGREE HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL BE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
FURTHER SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL BE THE BETTER THE RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL BE FOR THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY.  BEHIND THE FRONT HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 08Z WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. AFTER 08Z...MVFR FOG THRU 12Z-
13Z WITH VSBY DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES. FROM 12Z-13Z VCSH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SCT050 SCT-BKN100. WINDS SOUTHERLY 15-25KTS
DECREASING TO NEAR 10KTS AND SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO MORE SSW BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 211931
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
231 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF MILD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A PAC
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WED-THU
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITHIN A
WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WED
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SPREADING EASTWARD WED NIGHT INTO
EARLY THU ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS
WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THU SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S WHICH REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCT.

FRIDAY...A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CONUS. CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...HOWEVER BOTH
SUGGEST A FROPA EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST. LEE TROUGH WILL
KEEP WINDS AT A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. A FEW GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE WED AM IN CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  81  57  76 /  10  10  50  10
HUTCHINSON      56  79  55  74 /  10  30  50  10
NEWTON          56  78  56  74 /  10  20  50  10
ELDORADO        56  82  56  75 /  10  10  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  81  58  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         56  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
GREAT BEND      55  77  52  74 /  10  50  60   0
SALINA          56  77  56  74 /   0  30  60   0
MCPHERSON       56  76  56  73 /  10  30  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30
CHANUTE         51  76  54  73 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  76  54  72 /   0  10  50  30
PARSONS-KPPF    52  76  55  72 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KDDC 211922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-13 KTS. WITH THE LOSS OF
THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AOA100 IS EXPECTED BY 12-18Z
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES; BUT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  75  53  77 /  10  40  50   0
GCK  56  76  49  77 /  10  30  20   0
EHA  54  73  49  78 /  10  20  10   0
LBL  55  75  52  79 /  10  30  20   0
HYS  57  75  51  73 /  10  60  70   0
P28  57  77  56  79 /  10  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS AT 10-13 KTS. WITH THE LOSS OF
THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD AOA100 IS EXPECTED BY 12-18Z
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES; BUT ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  53 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  49 /   0  10  30  20
EHA  77  54  73  49 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  30  20
HYS  76  57  75  51 /   0  10  60  70
P28  81  57  77  56 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211742
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LATEST FORECAST UPDATE TO ACCT FOR REMOVAL OF MENTION OF MORNING
FOG...AND CLRING OF CWA OF LOW CLDS. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECT MSUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS FOR REST OF THE DAY WITH ONLY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP IN SPOTS. AREAS THIS MORNING THAT DID NOT SEE
CLOUDS/FOG HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR TO FORECASTED
HIGHS...WHILE THOSE LOCALES IN THE FOG/CLOUD COVERAGE ARE
LAGGING BY SEVERAL DEGREES...BUT WITH MAINLY FULL SUNSHINE NOW IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INCREASE IN TEMPS TOWARDS FORECASTED
NUMBERS WILL OCCUR. HAVE INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN AREAS ALREADY
CLOSE TO FORECASTED NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 08Z WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED LOW/MID CLOUDS EXPECTED. AFTER 08Z...MVFR FOG THRU 12Z-
13Z WITH VSBY DOWN TO 3SM AT TIMES. FROM 12Z-13Z VCSH AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SCT050 SCT-BKN100. WINDS SOUTHERLY 15-25KTS
DECREASING TO NEAR 10KTS AND SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO MORE SSW BY
12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 211658
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST. LEE TROUGH WILL
KEEP WINDS AT A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. A FEW GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE WED AM IN CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      80  56  79  56 /   0  10  20  50
NEWTON          78  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        79  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  57  78  58 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         78  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      78  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          79  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       79  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 211658
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THIS FORECAST. LEE TROUGH WILL
KEEP WINDS AT A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. A FEW GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE WED AM IN CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      80  56  79  56 /   0  10  20  50
NEWTON          78  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        79  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  57  78  58 /   0  10  10  40
RUSSELL         78  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      78  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          79  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       79  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211653
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1153 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR expected at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as southeast winds blo 10 kts
prevail through Wednesday morning. Outside chance of an isolated
shower impacting KFOE/KTOP otherwise forecast soundings show
increasing moisture and broken stratus developing near 4 kft from
09Z to 13Z. If showers develop near sites, scattered MVFR cigs are
possible.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KTOP 211653
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1153 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR expected at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as southeast winds blo 10 kts
prevail through Wednesday morning. Outside chance of an isolated
shower impacting KFOE/KTOP otherwise forecast soundings show
increasing moisture and broken stratus developing near 4 kft from
09Z to 13Z. If showers develop near sites, scattered MVFR cigs are
possible.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KGLD 211601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ADJUST
WORDING IN GOING FORECAST. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SEEN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYTIME HEATING
FINALLY AFFECTING THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG/PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOW WITH BREAK
IN CLD/FOG DECK...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 211601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ADJUST
WORDING IN GOING FORECAST. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SEEN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYTIME HEATING
FINALLY AFFECTING THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG/PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOW WITH BREAK
IN CLD/FOG DECK...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ADJUST
WORDING IN GOING FORECAST. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SEEN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYTIME HEATING
FINALLY AFFECTING THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG/PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOW WITH BREAK
IN CLD/FOG DECK...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 211601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ADJUST
WORDING IN GOING FORECAST. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SEEN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYTIME HEATING
FINALLY AFFECTING THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG/PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOW WITH BREAK
IN CLD/FOG DECK...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 211140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog
may continue to form until sunrise at KTOP. Late tonight stratus
ceilings may become broken after 9Z but ceilings should remain
above 3,000 feet. May see an isolated shower around sunrise Wednesday at
KTOP and KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 211140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog
may continue to form until sunrise at KTOP. Late tonight stratus
ceilings may become broken after 9Z but ceilings should remain
above 3,000 feet. May see an isolated shower around sunrise Wednesday at
KTOP and KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog
may continue to form until sunrise at KTOP. Late tonight stratus
ceilings may become broken after 9Z but ceilings should remain
above 3,000 feet. May see an isolated shower around sunrise Wednesday at
KTOP and KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Patchy ground fog
may continue to form until sunrise at KTOP. Late tonight stratus
ceilings may become broken after 9Z but ceilings should remain
above 3,000 feet. May see an isolated shower around sunrise Wednesday at
KTOP and KFOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 211134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE OZARK REGION
WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN
NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A HALF
INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...STILL ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...ESPECIALLY FOR CNU...WHERE PATCHY
AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT-BKN VFR
CIGS AROUND 4000 FT AGL SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         77  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      77  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  60
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  51  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  52  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KGLD 211131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 211131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211127
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS. THE HYS TERMINAL SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS VISIBLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING INCREASING TO OVER 12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  79  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  77  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  79  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  76  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  80  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210921
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO KGLD LATE TONIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT
KGLD AROUND 11Z WITH MVFR STRATUS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOG/IFR CIGS
TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATER
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210921
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO KGLD LATE TONIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT
KGLD AROUND 11Z WITH MVFR STRATUS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOG/IFR CIGS
TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATER
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DLF



000
FXUS63 KDDC 210844
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  75  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  75  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  75  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  72  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  79  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 210844
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST STARTS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE, CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LIFT LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST. FAR WESTERN KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE OF RECEIVING
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO A LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT,
WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. RAIN CHANCES END FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN TURN HELPS PUSH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS ALSO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AT THIS TIME ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SUGGEST THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH
THIS SYSTEM BEING OUT 7+ DAYS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT`S TIMING AND
TRACK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS FORECASTED ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT AND THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  56  75  54 /   0  10  40  50
GCK  75  56  76  51 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  75  54  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  75  55  75  52 /   0  10  40  40
HYS  72  57  75  52 /   0  10  60  70
P28  79  57  77  57 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE



000
FXUS63 KTOP 210819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains Today, then
east into the MS river valley by 12Z WED.

A lee surface rough will deepen Today and Tonight across the high
plains. light surface winds this morning will gradually strengthen
to 10 to 15 MPH during the afternoon hours from the southeast. WAA
at 850mb will help to warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 70s
Today.

Tonight, high clouds will gradually increase ahead of the next H5
trough approaching the high plains. Southerly low-level winds will
transport deeper moisture north through the night. Late Tonight
there will be enough isentropic lift ahead of the deeper moisture
return for stratus clouds to develop and perhaps an isolated shower
across the eastern counties of the CWA. I placed in 14 percent pops
at this time, since only the ARW and NMM versions of the WRF
solutions, along with the 00Z NAM forecast light QPF across the
extreme eastern counties of the the CWA between 9Z and 12Z WED.
Overnight lows will only drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Tomorrow morning the mid/upper level trough continues to track
eastward over the northern plains and upper Midwest. Models also
show pieces of energy lifting out of the southwest and over the area
tomorrow night. There is some indication of isentropic lift ahead of
the approaching trough that could produce an isolated rain shower
across far eastern KS around the 12Z time frame before quickly
moving eastward into MO. Confidence in this scenario is a low at
this point and amounts should be minimal therefore left it out of the
forecast. NAM soundings show a decrease in the 850mb moisture and saturation
during the late morning hours. A cold front then slides through
the region as the system advances towards the Great Lakes. The mid
level lift increases as the trough passes overhead and the sfc
front swings through. Precipitation looks to move into north
central KS first during the early evening hours, and then the
remaining areas overnight. The instability during this period
still appears to be rather limited without any steep lapse rates,
which should keep thunder isolated. Behind the front mid level dry
air begins to filter in Thursday morning putting an end to
precipitation from west to east. Most of the rain should exit the
forecast area around noon or late morning hours.

A mid/upper level ridge then builds and moves over the southern
plains causing a rise in temps. Highs this weekend look to reach the
upper 70s and low 80s, which is a good 10 degrees above normal. The
next weather system moves over the Pacific Northwest early next week
although the models disagree on how to handle this energy. The ECMWF
is still breaking off a shortwave to cut off in the southwest US,
while the GFS keeps everything in tact as is progresses across the
northern US. This will have implications of the timing of the next
front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. May see
some MVFR vsbys with fog formation and could see some IFR or LIFR
for brief periods at TOP from 11Z to 13Z with calm winds and clear
skies. Winds become southeast under 10 kts after 14Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KICT 210813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE
OZARK REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF I-35/I-135. ALL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS AT KCNU WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KICT...KHUT & KSLN FROM 08Z-15Z.
THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         79  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  50
GREAT BEND      79  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  50
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  50
COFFEYVILLE     77  53  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  53  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  52  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  53  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 210813
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SHARP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE
OZARK REGION WITH LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN CO/FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL CONFIDENT THAT ANY FOG WILL
BURN OFF BETWEEN 9 AND 10 AM. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE NOW OVER THE NW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. DURING THE DAY WED THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF I-135 AND WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET WET FROM WED AFTERNOON-
EARLY THU MORNING...ALSO CONFIDENT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT HIGH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS PICKING UP LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR WED AND THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRI AND SAT. 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH MEDIUM MODELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 18-21 C RANGE WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT HIGHS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT WILL BE WELL IN
THE 80S WITH UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SUN SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO COME ON SHORE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN NIGHT INTO MORNING MORNING. THE
GFS LEAVES IT AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SW. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT
FOR MON UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF I-35/I-135. ALL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS AT KCNU WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KICT...KHUT & KSLN FROM 08Z-15Z.
THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    81  57  79  58 /  10  10  10  50
HUTCHINSON      79  56  79  56 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          77  56  75  57 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        78  56  79  58 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  40
RUSSELL         79  56  76  52 /   0  10  40  50
GREAT BEND      79  55  76  52 /   0  10  30  50
SALINA          78  56  77  56 /   0   0  20  60
MCPHERSON       78  56  76  56 /   0  10  20  50
COFFEYVILLE     77  53  76  56 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         76  53  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
IOLA            76  52  75  56 /   0   0  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    76  53  76  56 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 210644
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
144 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM NEAR MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TRAVELS EAST TODAY, IT SHOULD BE FROM WISCONSIN TO ARKANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  NEARER THE EARTH, A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORMING
IN CENTRAL COLORADO AND WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IN THE MEAN TIME, THERE IS A SWATH OF MID TO
UPPER 50`S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTHWEST IN THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW.  WITH NO CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOIST WINDS, THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DENSE FOG FORMING ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS A MATTER OF FACT, BASED ON BOTH THE RAP12 AND HRRR
MODEL VISIBILITY FIELDS, THERE SHOULD BE 1/4-MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY
BY 11Z, AND LAST UNTIL 16Z OR SO.  I WILL BE ISSUING AN NPW DENSE
FOG ADVISORY SHORTLY.  THE DENSE FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
HEATING SOME IN OUR WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER IN OUR WEST THAN IN OUR EAST TODAY.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THE NAM MODEL, WHICH SHOWS NO LOWER VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING, DOES FORECAST SOME LOW VISIBILITY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR NOW, JUST PLAN TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING, AND WAIT TO SEE
HOW THE SHORT TERM MODELS HANDLE THE FOG TOMORROW MORNING.  I
KEPT THE GOING FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  56  76  55 /   0  10  50  50
GCK  75  56  76  51 /   0  10  40  40
EHA  76  54  73  51 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  76  55  76  53 /   0  10  30  30
HYS  72  57  76  54 /   0  10  60  70
P28  77  57  77  57 /   0  10  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KICT 210522
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
I-35 FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THESE AREAS TO AROUND 1/2 MILE AS GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE JOINED THE
ITS COHORTS WITH FOGGING IN ALL OF THESE AREAS. CHECKED SWING ON DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE...FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS STARTING ~4AM. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS (GFS IS THE
EXCEPTION) DEPICT STRONG FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL &
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR NORTH AS KRSL EARLY TUE MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE APPLIED "PATCHY" DESCRIPTOR TO THESE AREAS FROM ~4AM-9AM BUT WILL
WATCH CLOSELY. (ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT TRANSPIRED EARLY THIS MORNING.)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF I-35/I-135. ALL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS AT KCNU WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KICT...KHUT & KSLN FROM 08Z-15Z.
THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  77  59  77 /  10  10  50  20
HUTCHINSON      57  77  58  77 /  10  20  60  10
NEWTON          57  76  58  76 /   0  10  60  20
ELDORADO        56  77  58  75 /   0  10  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  77  59  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         58  77  56  77 /   0  40  60  10
GREAT BEND      58  77  56  78 /   0  30  60  10
SALINA          57  77  58  78 /   0  20  60  10
MCPHERSON       57  77  58  77 /   0  20  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     54  72  56  72 /   0  10  40  40
CHANUTE         52  69  56  72 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  68  56  72 /   0  10  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    53  71  56  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KICT 210522
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
I-35 FROM LATE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THESE AREAS TO AROUND 1/2 MILE AS GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE JOINED THE
ITS COHORTS WITH FOGGING IN ALL OF THESE AREAS. CHECKED SWING ON DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE...FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

WITH VERY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WOULD SLOWLY MIGRATE FROM OK ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS STARTING ~4AM. NEARLY ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS (GFS IS THE
EXCEPTION) DEPICT STRONG FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL &
PARTS OF CENTRAL KS TO AS FAR NORTH AS KRSL EARLY TUE MORNING. FOR NOW
HAVE APPLIED "PATCHY" DESCRIPTOR TO THESE AREAS FROM ~4AM-9AM BUT WILL
WATCH CLOSELY. (ESPECIALLY AFTER WHAT TRANSPIRED EARLY THIS MORNING.)

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TONIGHT-TUE:
MAIN FOCUS IS TIMING/AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY...BUT GIVEN GRADIENT OF 850MB MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION...WOULD NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SPRINKLES/
SPOTTY SHOWERS. ALSO GOOD CHANCE OF 3-5SM VISIBILITY IN FOG BUT
DENSE FOG LOOKS LESS LIKELY. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS...MILD DAY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-THU:
MOISTURE INCREASES WED AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE...SETTING STAGE
FOR MAINLY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR WEST SECTIONS ON WED DURING DAY...ALL OF
THE AREA WED NIGHT AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST KS ON THU DURING THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL US
FRI-SAT...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN AND TROUGH MOVING INTO
SUN/MON. ONCE AGAIN...ECMWF/GFS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PATTERN TRANSITION ON SUN/MON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD AHEAD OF FRONT. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN
GFS/ECMWF ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
IF WARMER TEMPERATURES VERIFY PER ECMWF...MAXES COULD MAKE THE
LOWER 80S ON MON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.
HOWEVER COOLER SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER
50S/NEAR 60. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE ARE NO CONCERNS UNTIL ~08Z WHEN AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF I-35/I-135. ALL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR
VSBYS AT KCNU WITH IFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KICT...KHUT & KSLN FROM 08Z-15Z.
THE FOG WOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AROUND WHICH TIME ~3,500FT CIGS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY SC & SE KS).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  77  59  77 /  10  10  50  20
HUTCHINSON      57  77  58  77 /  10  20  60  10
NEWTON          57  76  58  76 /   0  10  60  20
ELDORADO        56  77  58  75 /   0  10  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  77  59  76 /  10  10  50  20
RUSSELL         58  77  56  77 /   0  40  60  10
GREAT BEND      58  77  56  78 /   0  30  60  10
SALINA          57  77  58  78 /   0  20  60  10
MCPHERSON       57  77  58  77 /   0  20  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     54  72  56  72 /   0  10  40  40
CHANUTE         52  69  56  72 /   0  10  50  30
IOLA            51  68  56  72 /   0  10  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    53  71  56  71 /   0  10  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 210518
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  76  55  75 /  10  50  50  10
GCK  56  76  51  76 /  10  40  40  10
EHA  54  73  51  76 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  55  76  53  76 /  10  30  30  10
HYS  57  76  54  74 /  10  60  70  10
P28  57  77  57  77 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE



000
FXUS63 KDDC 210518
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RATHER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWING A 583 DAM 500MB CENTER NEAR DODGE CITY. THIS RESULTED IN
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AMIDST THE SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY, WHICH WAS STALLING
OUT AND DISSOLVING FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THERE WAS A CORRIDOR OF 53-59F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS WINDS BECOME
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THIS MOISTURE WILL PULL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE COLORADO BORDER. WE
EXPECT FOG AND PERHAPS DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY 09Z AND LATER TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL TO LOWS IN THE MID 40S AS A RULE ALONG/NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER. CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, LOWS SHOULD NOT FALL BELOW
LOWER 50S GIVEN THE HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE
SOUTH WINDS, A BAND OF STRATUS WILL DEVELOP UP TO AROUND 2000 FEET
AGL, WHICH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING
HOURS.  EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH, BUT AREAS UP ALONG I-70 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 19 OR 20Z,
WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MITIGATE THE WARM-UP. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED JUST A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE OF THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITION THROUGH ABOUT 10Z THIS MORNING. THEN,
A SWATCH OF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND DENSE FOG
IS LIKELY AT KGCK AND KDDC. THE DENSE FOG, WTIH VSBYS DOWN 1/4SM
OR LOWER AND CIGS OVC002, WILL PERSIST FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. AFTER
THAT, EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13KT TO 16KTS, AND SCATTERED
CLOUDS AROUND 030.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  76  55  75 /  10  50  50  10
GCK  56  76  51  76 /  10  40  40  10
EHA  54  73  51  76 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  55  76  53  76 /  10  30  30  10
HYS  57  76  54  74 /  10  60  70  10
P28  57  77  57  77 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KGLD 210510
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  OVERNIGHT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...CAUSING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP.  THE FOG/STRATUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOCATIONS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AROUND SUNRISE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNRISE THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.  HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES
EASTWARD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER ON STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...SO LATEST RUNS WHICH
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF OF PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...NOT READY TO GREATLY LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL SCALING BACK APPEARS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE H5
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO KGLD LATE TONIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT
KGLD AROUND 11Z WITH MVFR STRATUS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOG/IFR CIGS
TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATER
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DLF



000
FXUS63 KGLD 210510
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT TO BREEZY OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.  OVERNIGHT HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL
POOL OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...CAUSING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP.  THE FOG/STRATUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH SUNRISE.
LOCATIONS IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AROUND SUNRISE.

TUESDAY MORNING THE FOG/STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNRISE THEN
BEGIN TO IMPROVE.  HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE.  DURING THE AFTERNOON 850MB WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES
EASTWARD. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE BREEZY WINDS
TO MIX TO THE GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CENTER ON STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL DRIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH...SO LATEST RUNS WHICH
SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF OF PRECIP THREAT. WHILE THIS DOES LOWER
CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT...NOT READY TO GREATLY LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH A GENERAL SCALING BACK APPEARS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE QUIET
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS LARGE H5
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CWA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE
AREA...BUT VERY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION
OF THIS TROUGH KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT WITH S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20
KTS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO KGLD LATE TONIGHT. IFR FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT
KGLD AROUND 11Z WITH MVFR STRATUS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DISSIPATING. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOG/IFR CIGS
TONIGHT BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATER
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KTOP 210443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. May see
some MVFR vsbys with fog formation and could see some IFR or LIFR
for brief periods at TOP from 11Z to 13Z with calm winds and clear
skies. Winds become southeast under 10 kts after 14Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 210443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. May see
some MVFR vsbys with fog formation and could see some IFR or LIFR
for brief periods at TOP from 11Z to 13Z with calm winds and clear
skies. Winds become southeast under 10 kts after 14Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53






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