Home > Products > State Listing > Kansas Data
Latest:
 AFDGLD |  AFDDDC |  AFDTOP |  AFDICT |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 190600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION FOG ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 190600
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION FOG ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN A BREAK UP OF THE LOW MVFR TO LIFR STRATUS FROM WEST
TO EAST. LIFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT KDDC AFTER 12 UTC AS
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 190537
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING FRO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG CONDITIONS. THE FOCUS
WILL OCCUR IN THOMAS/LOGAN/GOVE COUNTIES MAINLY FROM COLBY TO
OAKLEY WHERE LESS THAN 1SM IN FOG IS ONGOING. THIS IS OCCURRING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. REST OF THE CWA IS SEEING PATCHY FOG...SO REST OF
FORECAS IS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. IF DENSE CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...MAY ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD THRU 13Z FRIDAY VFR/MVFR MIX WITH 3-6SM IN FOG WITH
BKN060 AND KMCK...THRU 15Z FRI...WILL HAVE A MIX OF IFR AND BELOW
AS FOG WILL BRING VISIBILITY RANGING 2SM DOWN TO 1/4SM AT TIMES
AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC002-010. BUT AFT 13Z-15Z THIS MORNING
BOTH SITES VFR WITH SCT100-150. WINDS VARIABLE AN LIGHT THRU 13Z-
15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 190537
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING FRO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG CONDITIONS. THE FOCUS
WILL OCCUR IN THOMAS/LOGAN/GOVE COUNTIES MAINLY FROM COLBY TO
OAKLEY WHERE LESS THAN 1SM IN FOG IS ONGOING. THIS IS OCCURRING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. REST OF THE CWA IS SEEING PATCHY FOG...SO REST OF
FORECAS IS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. IF DENSE CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...MAY ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD THRU 13Z FRIDAY VFR/MVFR MIX WITH 3-6SM IN FOG WITH
BKN060 AND KMCK...THRU 15Z FRI...WILL HAVE A MIX OF IFR AND BELOW
AS FOG WILL BRING VISIBILITY RANGING 2SM DOWN TO 1/4SM AT TIMES
AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC002-010. BUT AFT 13Z-15Z THIS MORNING
BOTH SITES VFR WITH SCT100-150. WINDS VARIABLE AN LIGHT THRU 13Z-
15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 190529
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MELTING SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A MOIST PBL WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND A CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
BACKED OFF ON DENSE FOG AS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX
OUT SOME OF THE STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY RETURN ON FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 190529
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1129 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MELTING SNOW AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A MOIST PBL WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND A CONTINUATION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
BACKED OFF ON DENSE FOG AS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX
OUT SOME OF THE STUBBORN CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER
LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY RETURN ON FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 190526
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1126 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper trough that brought last night`s snowfall was already
moving eastward across the mid MS river valley. An upper level
trough will move east across the northern plains Tonight. A surface
ridge of high pressure will extend from the upper Midwest, southwest
across eastern KS into the TX PHNDL.

The better chance for freezing drizzle will occur across western KS,
northeast into east central NE. Very weak isentropic lift will
develop at the 275 theta surface, from I-70 north after 8Z, so I
cannot rule out a slight chance for very light and patchy freezing
drizzle. But my confidence is low enough to keep it out of the
forecast. There may be areas of fog developing through the night as
well. The best chances for patchy dense fog will be across the
southern counties of the CWA. Lows Tonight will gradually fall into
the mid to upper 20s. Therefore any wet pavement may re-freeze and
form icy patches Friday morning.

An upper level trough across the four corners region this afternoon
will fill as it moves east into the southern plains Tonight and
Friday. The best combination of moisture and lift will be well south
of the CWA across southern OK into eastern TX where a broad area of
rainfall will develop. Expect a cloudy and dry day on Friday. Highs
Friday will struggle into the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Weak southerly low level flow will support a continuation of the
stratus into Saturday morning and possibly beyond into Saturday
night as well. Considered adding patchy fog at night into the
grids...although not sure stratus deck will be supportive of low
visibilities. The exception would be breaks/clearing in the overcast
late in the day or at nighttime...or we are able to advect deeper
moisture back into the area at night with the cool temperatures.  If
either of these cases were to occur...dense fog would be
likely...especially with wet ground and melting snowcover to come.
Either way...with the warm advection have increased highs into the
low to mid 40s for Saturday. With the increasing warm air advection
on Sunday ahead of the next clipper system in the northern
plains...will maintain the middle to upper 40s...although cloudcover
(both low and high level) are still a concern.

Will keep highs ahead of the cold front on Monday in the
40s...although if the clipper/front move through the area earlier in
the day...highs may be cooler and temps falling in the afternoon.
Either way...will maintain a chance for rain ahead of the system
Sunday night into Monday...then a rain/snow chance Monday night into
Tuesday across mainly the northeast county warning area as the
system deepens and cooler air filters southward. With the trough
over the eastern CONUS...northwest flow will persist across the area
through mid week with a dry forecast and highs in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. The EC and GFS models are in better agreement in bringing
the next stronger shortwave trough over the western ridge and into
the central plains by Christmas Day. Have therefore introduced a
chance for snow at that time for all areas except the far southeast
corner with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Low stratus of 600 to 900 feet will continue across the terminals
for most of the next 24 hours. There is a chance for LIFR
conditions at KFOE as ceilings may fall to 400 feet. Areas of light
fog may also reduce visiblities. The patchy freezing drizzle
chances are decreasing after 9Z. The terminals may briefly have
low-MVFR ceilings late Friday afternoon but may go below IFR after
00Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 190526
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1126 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper trough that brought last night`s snowfall was already
moving eastward across the mid MS river valley. An upper level
trough will move east across the northern plains Tonight. A surface
ridge of high pressure will extend from the upper Midwest, southwest
across eastern KS into the TX PHNDL.

The better chance for freezing drizzle will occur across western KS,
northeast into east central NE. Very weak isentropic lift will
develop at the 275 theta surface, from I-70 north after 8Z, so I
cannot rule out a slight chance for very light and patchy freezing
drizzle. But my confidence is low enough to keep it out of the
forecast. There may be areas of fog developing through the night as
well. The best chances for patchy dense fog will be across the
southern counties of the CWA. Lows Tonight will gradually fall into
the mid to upper 20s. Therefore any wet pavement may re-freeze and
form icy patches Friday morning.

An upper level trough across the four corners region this afternoon
will fill as it moves east into the southern plains Tonight and
Friday. The best combination of moisture and lift will be well south
of the CWA across southern OK into eastern TX where a broad area of
rainfall will develop. Expect a cloudy and dry day on Friday. Highs
Friday will struggle into the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Weak southerly low level flow will support a continuation of the
stratus into Saturday morning and possibly beyond into Saturday
night as well. Considered adding patchy fog at night into the
grids...although not sure stratus deck will be supportive of low
visibilities. The exception would be breaks/clearing in the overcast
late in the day or at nighttime...or we are able to advect deeper
moisture back into the area at night with the cool temperatures.  If
either of these cases were to occur...dense fog would be
likely...especially with wet ground and melting snowcover to come.
Either way...with the warm advection have increased highs into the
low to mid 40s for Saturday. With the increasing warm air advection
on Sunday ahead of the next clipper system in the northern
plains...will maintain the middle to upper 40s...although cloudcover
(both low and high level) are still a concern.

Will keep highs ahead of the cold front on Monday in the
40s...although if the clipper/front move through the area earlier in
the day...highs may be cooler and temps falling in the afternoon.
Either way...will maintain a chance for rain ahead of the system
Sunday night into Monday...then a rain/snow chance Monday night into
Tuesday across mainly the northeast county warning area as the
system deepens and cooler air filters southward. With the trough
over the eastern CONUS...northwest flow will persist across the area
through mid week with a dry forecast and highs in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. The EC and GFS models are in better agreement in bringing
the next stronger shortwave trough over the western ridge and into
the central plains by Christmas Day. Have therefore introduced a
chance for snow at that time for all areas except the far southeast
corner with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Low stratus of 600 to 900 feet will continue across the terminals
for most of the next 24 hours. There is a chance for LIFR
conditions at KFOE as ceilings may fall to 400 feet. Areas of light
fog may also reduce visiblities. The patchy freezing drizzle
chances are decreasing after 9Z. The terminals may briefly have
low-MVFR ceilings late Friday afternoon but may go below IFR after
00Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KGLD 190329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
829 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING FRO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG CONDITIONS. THE FOCUS
WILL OCCUR IN THOMAS/LOGAN/GOVE COUNTIES MAINLY FROM COLBY TO
OAKLEY WHERE LESS THAN 1SM IN FOG IS ONGOING. THIS IS OCCURRING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. REST OF THE CWA IS SEEING PATCHY FOG...SO REST OF
FORECAS IS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. IF DENSE CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...MAY ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN100-200. FROM 03Z-12Z
FRIDAY THOUGH BKN060(WITH SOME 3SM IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z
FRI). WINDS NORTHERLY 5-10KTS...BECM LGT/VAR BY 03Z...THEN WSW
5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR WITH BKN200-250 BUT FROM 00Z-09Z CEILINGS
OVC005-008 AT TIMES WITH FOG RANGING FROM 5SM DOWN TO NEAR 1SM AT
TIMES...AFT 15Z FRIDAY VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS LGT/VAR THRU 06Z
FRI...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 190329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
829 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING FRO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG CONDITIONS. THE FOCUS
WILL OCCUR IN THOMAS/LOGAN/GOVE COUNTIES MAINLY FROM COLBY TO
OAKLEY WHERE LESS THAN 1SM IN FOG IS ONGOING. THIS IS OCCURRING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. REST OF THE CWA IS SEEING PATCHY FOG...SO REST OF
FORECAS IS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. IF DENSE CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...MAY ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN100-200. FROM 03Z-12Z
FRIDAY THOUGH BKN060(WITH SOME 3SM IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z
FRI). WINDS NORTHERLY 5-10KTS...BECM LGT/VAR BY 03Z...THEN WSW
5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR WITH BKN200-250 BUT FROM 00Z-09Z CEILINGS
OVC005-008 AT TIMES WITH FOG RANGING FROM 5SM DOWN TO NEAR 1SM AT
TIMES...AFT 15Z FRIDAY VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS LGT/VAR THRU 06Z
FRI...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 190329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
829 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TO PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING FRO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG CONDITIONS. THE FOCUS
WILL OCCUR IN THOMAS/LOGAN/GOVE COUNTIES MAINLY FROM COLBY TO
OAKLEY WHERE LESS THAN 1SM IN FOG IS ONGOING. THIS IS OCCURRING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. REST OF THE CWA IS SEEING PATCHY FOG...SO REST OF
FORECAS IS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. IF DENSE CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...MAY ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN100-200. FROM 03Z-12Z
FRIDAY THOUGH BKN060(WITH SOME 3SM IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z
FRI). WINDS NORTHERLY 5-10KTS...BECM LGT/VAR BY 03Z...THEN WSW
5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR WITH BKN200-250 BUT FROM 00Z-09Z CEILINGS
OVC005-008 AT TIMES WITH FOG RANGING FROM 5SM DOWN TO NEAR 1SM AT
TIMES...AFT 15Z FRIDAY VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS LGT/VAR THRU 06Z
FRI...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 190028
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
528 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
REMAINS UNDER A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK...WHILE THE WESTERN HALF
SEEING ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FILTER THRU. FOG IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AS FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR AS TO EXTENT/VISIBILITY
REDUCTION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALL AREAS MAINLY AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...WITH ONLY A FEW OUTLIERS IN THE LOW/MID 30S RANGE IN
FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF
FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN100-200. FROM 03Z-12Z
FRIDAY THOUGH BKN060(WITH SOME 3SM IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z
FRI). WINDS NORTHERLY 5-10KTS...BECM LGT/VAR BY 03Z...THEN WSW
5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR WITH BKN200-250 BUT FROM 00Z-09Z CEILINGS
OVC005-008 AT TIMES WITH FOG RANGING FROM 5SM DOWN TO NEAR 1SM AT
TIMES...AFT 15Z FRIDAY VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS LGT/VAR THRU 06Z
FRI...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 182352
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
452 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 452 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN100-200. FROM 03Z-12Z
FRIDAY THOUGH BKN060(WITH SOME 3SM IN FOG POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z
FRI). WINDS NORTHERLY 5-10KTS...BECM LGT/VAR BY 03Z...THEN WSW
5-10KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR KMCK...VFR WITH BKN200-250 BUT FROM 00Z-09Z CEILINGS
OVC005-008 AT TIMES WITH FOG RANGING FROM 5SM DOWN TO NEAR 1SM AT
TIMES...AFT 15Z FRIDAY VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS LGT/VAR THRU 06Z
FRI...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 182349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
549 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIFR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR DZ/FZDZ BUT PATCHY
DZ WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 182349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
549 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD LIFR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE APPEARS TOO SHALLOW FOR DZ/FZDZ BUT PATCHY
DZ WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 182325
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION FOG ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THINGS WILL START OUT IN THE IFR CATEGORY, AND GET WORSE. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TONIGHT, ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THE CIG AND VSBY WILL BOTH LOWER AROUND 06Z TO
OVC007 AND 3SM BR. BY MORNING OR AROUND 10Z, EXPECT OVC003 AND 2SM
BR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND 17Z FRIDAY, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 182325
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION FOG ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THINGS WILL START OUT IN THE IFR CATEGORY, AND GET WORSE. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TONIGHT, ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THE CIG AND VSBY WILL BOTH LOWER AROUND 06Z TO
OVC007 AND 3SM BR. BY MORNING OR AROUND 10Z, EXPECT OVC003 AND 2SM
BR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND 17Z FRIDAY, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE



000
FXUS63 KTOP 182324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper trough that brought last night`s snowfall was already
moving eastward across the mid MS river valley. An upper level
trough will move east across the northern plains Tonight. A surface
ridge of high pressure will extend from the upper Midwest, southwest
across eastern KS into the TX PHNDL.

The better chance for freezing drizzle will occur across western KS,
northeast into east central NE. Very weak isentropic lift will
develop at the 275 theta surface, from I-70 north after 8Z, so I
cannot rule out a slight chance for very light and patchy freezing
drizzle. But my confidence is low enough to keep it out of the
forecast. There may be areas of fog developing through the night as
well. The best chances for patchy dense fog will be across the
southern counties of the CWA. Lows Tonight will gradually fall into
the mid to upper 20s. Therefore any wet pavement may re-freeze and
form icy patches Friday morning.

An upper level trough across the four corners region this afternoon
will fill as it moves east into the southern plains Tonight and
Friday. The best combination of moisture and lift will be well south
of the CWA across southern OK into eastern TX where a broad area of
rainfall will develop. Expect a cloudy and dry day on Friday. Highs
Friday will struggle into the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Weak southerly low level flow will support a continuation of the
stratus into Saturday morning and possibly beyond into Saturday
night as well. Considered adding patchy fog at night into the
grids...although not sure stratus deck will be supportive of low
visibilities. The exception would be breaks/clearing in the overcast
late in the day or at nighttime...or we are able to advect deeper
moisture back into the area at night with the cool temperatures.  If
either of these cases were to occur...dense fog would be
likely...especially with wet ground and melting snowcover to come.
Either way...with the warm advection have increased highs into the
low to mid 40s for Saturday. With the increasing warm air advection
on Sunday ahead of the next clipper system in the northern
plains...will maintain the middle to upper 40s...although cloudcover
(both low and high level) are still a concern.

Will keep highs ahead of the cold front on Monday in the
40s...although if the clipper/front move through the area earlier in
the day...highs may be cooler and temps falling in the afternoon.
Either way...will maintain a chance for rain ahead of the system
Sunday night into Monday...then a rain/snow chance Monday night into
Tuesday across mainly the northeast county warning area as the
system deepens and cooler air filters southward. With the trough
over the eastern CONUS...northwest flow will persist across the area
through mid week with a dry forecast and highs in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. The EC and GFS models are in better agreement in bringing
the next stronger shortwave trough over the western ridge and into
the central plains by Christmas Day. Have therefore introduced a
chance for snow at that time for all areas except the far southeast
corner with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Few changes to the previous TAF package. Low stratus accompanied
with light fog will be the predominant feature of the period. TOP
and FOE will maintain IFR conditions throughout the night and morning,
with MHK dropping to IFR at 03Z. Light freezing drizzle is still a
possibility until 15Z tomorrow. Beginning at 16Z, ceilings should
lift to MVFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller






000
FXUS63 KTOP 182324
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper trough that brought last night`s snowfall was already
moving eastward across the mid MS river valley. An upper level
trough will move east across the northern plains Tonight. A surface
ridge of high pressure will extend from the upper Midwest, southwest
across eastern KS into the TX PHNDL.

The better chance for freezing drizzle will occur across western KS,
northeast into east central NE. Very weak isentropic lift will
develop at the 275 theta surface, from I-70 north after 8Z, so I
cannot rule out a slight chance for very light and patchy freezing
drizzle. But my confidence is low enough to keep it out of the
forecast. There may be areas of fog developing through the night as
well. The best chances for patchy dense fog will be across the
southern counties of the CWA. Lows Tonight will gradually fall into
the mid to upper 20s. Therefore any wet pavement may re-freeze and
form icy patches Friday morning.

An upper level trough across the four corners region this afternoon
will fill as it moves east into the southern plains Tonight and
Friday. The best combination of moisture and lift will be well south
of the CWA across southern OK into eastern TX where a broad area of
rainfall will develop. Expect a cloudy and dry day on Friday. Highs
Friday will struggle into the mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Weak southerly low level flow will support a continuation of the
stratus into Saturday morning and possibly beyond into Saturday
night as well. Considered adding patchy fog at night into the
grids...although not sure stratus deck will be supportive of low
visibilities. The exception would be breaks/clearing in the overcast
late in the day or at nighttime...or we are able to advect deeper
moisture back into the area at night with the cool temperatures.  If
either of these cases were to occur...dense fog would be
likely...especially with wet ground and melting snowcover to come.
Either way...with the warm advection have increased highs into the
low to mid 40s for Saturday. With the increasing warm air advection
on Sunday ahead of the next clipper system in the northern
plains...will maintain the middle to upper 40s...although cloudcover
(both low and high level) are still a concern.

Will keep highs ahead of the cold front on Monday in the
40s...although if the clipper/front move through the area earlier in
the day...highs may be cooler and temps falling in the afternoon.
Either way...will maintain a chance for rain ahead of the system
Sunday night into Monday...then a rain/snow chance Monday night into
Tuesday across mainly the northeast county warning area as the
system deepens and cooler air filters southward. With the trough
over the eastern CONUS...northwest flow will persist across the area
through mid week with a dry forecast and highs in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. The EC and GFS models are in better agreement in bringing
the next stronger shortwave trough over the western ridge and into
the central plains by Christmas Day. Have therefore introduced a
chance for snow at that time for all areas except the far southeast
corner with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Few changes to the previous TAF package. Low stratus accompanied
with light fog will be the predominant feature of the period. TOP
and FOE will maintain IFR conditions throughout the night and morning,
with MHK dropping to IFR at 03Z. Light freezing drizzle is still a
possibility until 15Z tomorrow. Beginning at 16Z, ceilings should
lift to MVFR.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 182145
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper trough that brought last night`s snowfall was already
moving eastward across the mid MS river valley. An upper level
trough will move east across the northern plains Tonight. A surface
ridge of high pressure will extend from the upper Midwest, southwest
across eastern KS into the TX PHNDL.

The better chance for freezing drizzle will occur across western KS,
northeast into east central NE. Very weak isentropic lift will
develop at the 275 theta surface, from I-70 north after 8Z, so I
cannot rule out a slight chance for very light and patchy freezing
drizzle. But my confidence is low enough to keep it out of the
forecast. There may be areas of fog developing through the night as
well. The best chances for patchy dense fog will be across the
southern counties of the CWA. Lows Tonight will gradually fall into
the mid to upper 20s. Therefore any wet pavement may re-freeze and
form icy patches Friday morning.

An upper level trough across the four corners region this afternoon
will fill as it moves east into the southern plains Tonight and
Friday. The best combination of moisture and lift will be well south
of the CWA across southern OK into eastern TX where a broad area of
rainfall will develop. Expect a cloudy and dry day on Friday. Highs
Friday will struggle into the mid 30s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Weak southerly low level flow will support a continuation of the
stratus into Saturday morning and possibly beyond into Saturday
night as well. Considered adding patchy fog at night into the
grids...although not sure stratus deck will be supportive of low
visibilities. The exception would be breaks/clearing in the overcast
late in the day or at nighttime...or we are able to advect deeper
moisture back into the area at night with the cool temperatures.  If
either of these cases were to occur...dense fog would be
likely...especially with wet ground and melting snowcover to come.
Either way...with the warm advection have increased highs into the
low to mid 40s for Saturday. With the increasing warm air advection
on Sunday ahead of the next clipper system in the northern
plains...will maintain the middle to upper 40s...although cloudcover
(both low and high level) are still a concern.

Will keep highs ahead of the cold front on Monday in the
40s...although if the clipper/front move through the area earlier in
the day...highs may be cooler and temps falling in the afternoon.
Either way...will maintain a chance for rain ahead of the system
Sunday night into Monday...then a rain/snow chance Monday night into
Tuesday across mainly the northeast county warning area as the
system deepens and cooler air filters southward. With the trough
over the eastern CONUS...northwest flow will persist across the area
through mid week with a dry forecast and highs in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. The EC and GFS models are in better agreement in bringing
the next stronger shortwave trough over the western ridge and into
the central plains by Christmas Day. Have therefore introduced a
chance for snow at that time for all areas except the far southeast
corner with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Expect the low stratus (IFR) and light fog to continue across the
KTOP and KFOE terminals through the forecast period. KMHK had
ceilings of 1500 feet but these ceilings should fall to around 800
feet this evening. Patchy flurries and/or patchy freezing drizzle
may develop across the terminals Tonight through 15Z FRI.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 182145
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The upper trough that brought last night`s snowfall was already
moving eastward across the mid MS river valley. An upper level
trough will move east across the northern plains Tonight. A surface
ridge of high pressure will extend from the upper Midwest, southwest
across eastern KS into the TX PHNDL.

The better chance for freezing drizzle will occur across western KS,
northeast into east central NE. Very weak isentropic lift will
develop at the 275 theta surface, from I-70 north after 8Z, so I
cannot rule out a slight chance for very light and patchy freezing
drizzle. But my confidence is low enough to keep it out of the
forecast. There may be areas of fog developing through the night as
well. The best chances for patchy dense fog will be across the
southern counties of the CWA. Lows Tonight will gradually fall into
the mid to upper 20s. Therefore any wet pavement may re-freeze and
form icy patches Friday morning.

An upper level trough across the four corners region this afternoon
will fill as it moves east into the southern plains Tonight and
Friday. The best combination of moisture and lift will be well south
of the CWA across southern OK into eastern TX where a broad area of
rainfall will develop. Expect a cloudy and dry day on Friday. Highs
Friday will struggle into the mid 30s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Weak southerly low level flow will support a continuation of the
stratus into Saturday morning and possibly beyond into Saturday
night as well. Considered adding patchy fog at night into the
grids...although not sure stratus deck will be supportive of low
visibilities. The exception would be breaks/clearing in the overcast
late in the day or at nighttime...or we are able to advect deeper
moisture back into the area at night with the cool temperatures.  If
either of these cases were to occur...dense fog would be
likely...especially with wet ground and melting snowcover to come.
Either way...with the warm advection have increased highs into the
low to mid 40s for Saturday. With the increasing warm air advection
on Sunday ahead of the next clipper system in the northern
plains...will maintain the middle to upper 40s...although cloudcover
(both low and high level) are still a concern.

Will keep highs ahead of the cold front on Monday in the
40s...although if the clipper/front move through the area earlier in
the day...highs may be cooler and temps falling in the afternoon.
Either way...will maintain a chance for rain ahead of the system
Sunday night into Monday...then a rain/snow chance Monday night into
Tuesday across mainly the northeast county warning area as the
system deepens and cooler air filters southward. With the trough
over the eastern CONUS...northwest flow will persist across the area
through mid week with a dry forecast and highs in the upper 30s and
lower 40s. The EC and GFS models are in better agreement in bringing
the next stronger shortwave trough over the western ridge and into
the central plains by Christmas Day. Have therefore introduced a
chance for snow at that time for all areas except the far southeast
corner with highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Expect the low stratus (IFR) and light fog to continue across the
KTOP and KFOE terminals through the forecast period. KMHK had
ceilings of 1500 feet but these ceilings should fall to around 800
feet this evening. Patchy flurries and/or patchy freezing drizzle
may develop across the terminals Tonight through 15Z FRI.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KGLD 182130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG COULD BE NEAR KGLD DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AM THINKING BECAUSE OF INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...FOG WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.

FOR KMCK...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 182130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG COULD BE NEAR KGLD DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AM THINKING BECAUSE OF INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...FOG WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.

FOR KMCK...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 182130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG COULD BE NEAR KGLD DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AM THINKING BECAUSE OF INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...FOG WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.

FOR KMCK...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 182130
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING OF AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE MIDWEST STATES MON-TUE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM MODERATE WESTERLY TO A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. A 140 KT JET AT 250 MB WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THAT TIME WHICH
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN-SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING TOO MUCH PROBLEM WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD SAT-MON LOOK TO BE MILD
FOR MID-DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR TUE-WED.

LOOKING AHEAD TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL ISSUES DEVELOPING AS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION AND
TIMING OF THE UPPER/SURFACE SYSTEMS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. CERTAINLY THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG COULD BE NEAR KGLD DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AM THINKING BECAUSE OF INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...FOG WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.

FOR KMCK...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KICT 182121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 182121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CLOUDS PLAGUE THE AREA AFTER A FOGGY AND DRIZZLY START TO THE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE HOVERED AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE 32 DEGREES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ALOFT THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT US THE SNOW IS EXITING TO THE WEST WITH
ANOTHER WAVE ON ITS HEELS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN/CHALLENGE IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. DO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT FOG SHOULD LIFT DURING THE
DAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY. AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING A PERIOD OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TOMORROW...BUT STEADILY CREEP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE NEXT WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST...NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...ONE EARLY AND A SECONDARY PUSH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION...MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FEEL THE
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT IT WILL NOT BE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.

HIGHS WILL COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND THE
HOLIDAYS.

SOMETHING TO WATCH WILL BE THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF A SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM TRACKS A LOW ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL
PUT KANSAS IN THE SECTOR FOR SNOW. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE...SO BE SURE TO WATCH THROUGH THE
UPCOMING DAYS AS YOU PLAN YOUR HOLIDAY TRAVELS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  39  30  46 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  39  28  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          27  38  29  45 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        28  39  30  45 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  40  30  47 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         24  42  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  43  28  49 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          25  39  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  38  29  46 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  31  44 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            31  39  30  43 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  31  44 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 182034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG COULD BE NEAR KGLD DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AM THINKING BECAUSE OF INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...FOG WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.

FOR KMCK...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 182034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN CONCERN INTO TOMORROW WILL BE FOG ONCE AGAIN. A LOT OF THE
SNOW TODAY HAS MELTED BUT STILL SOME SNOW LEFT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL PROBABLY BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SO THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND WITHOUT A STRONG WIND
FIELD. WHERE THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS STAY THE STRONGEST TONIGHT IS
WHERE I EXPECT THE MOST EXTENSIVE FOG AND STRATUS TO NOT MOVE
INTO. GREATEST COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE IN THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO BE OVER THE REST OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

ALSO TO COMPLICATE THE COVERAGE OF FOG/STRATUS WILL BE INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. DUE TO THAT IS WHY THE FOG WILL
BE PATCHY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHERE THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FAR WEST...IS WHERE THE COLDEST MINS
SHOULD BE.

MAXES WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
ALL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BY LATE MORNING
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE GONE. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED THE
EARLIEST TODAY THE TEMPERATURES HAD NO PROBLEM IN WARMING UP. SO
DO EXPECT A DECENT WARMUP TOMORROW WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG COULD BE NEAR KGLD DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AM THINKING BECAUSE OF INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...FOG WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.

FOR KMCK...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERECNES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTERHLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS ADVECTION FOG
ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD BE
WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 181950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERECNES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTERHLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS ADVECTION FOG
ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD BE
WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 181950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERECNES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTERHLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS ADVECTION FOG
ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD BE
WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 181950
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERECNES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTERHLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE INTO
THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS ADVECTION FOG
ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD BE
WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  50 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 181903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KGLD 181745
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED FOR THE RECENT EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG COULD BE NEAR KGLD DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AM THINKING BECAUSE OF INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...FOG WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.

FOR KMCK...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 181745
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED FOR THE RECENT EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

FOR KGLD...IFR NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME FOG COULD BE NEAR KGLD DURING THE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AM THINKING BECAUSE OF INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SKY COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...FOG WILL NOT AFFECT THE SITE.

FOR KMCK...IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
HOURS BEFORE CLEARING. FROM 06Z TO 15Z...MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 181741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Main concern in the short term is the ongoing light to moderate
snowfall across the CWA. Water vapor imagery depicts a few areas of
vorticity maxima within the broad upper trough axis, one rotating
over central KS while the other trailed across western KS. Enhanced
lift in the mid levels coinciding with pockets of instability has
produced heavier bands of snowfall. One snow band in particular
stretched from Ellsworth through Delphos and just south of Concordia
where 3 to 4 inches was reported. Similar reports were observed from
Morris County, northeast to portions of Pottawatomie and Washington
counties. Latest radar images at this hour were showing the back
edge of the heavier snow bands entering portions of north central
Kansas, while additional bands were shifting east towards east
central KS.

The snow is expected to gradually taper with the main
energy lifting north and east by early afternoon. Ice growth is lost
as mid level dry air increases; meanwhile the low levels stay
saturated as forecast soundings show weak lift lingering. Some
uncertainty remains on the extent of this lift, but for now will
leave the mention patchy freezing drizzle through mid afternoon for
much of the area. Overcast stratus and no temp advection to deal
with will hold temperatures to the lower 30s throughout the day.

For this evening, influence from the surface high remains over the
CWA as an upper trough progresses eastward over the northern plains.
Adjusted temps a few degrees down tonight as snow cover drops lows
into the low 20s north central and mid 20s elsewhere. Skies remain
overcast as low level forcing increases slightly below 850 mb. This
varies between guidance, but a slight chance mention for light
freezing drizzle was needed after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The long term currently appears pretty quiet overall. On Friday, a
trough will cross the Plains states, but locally there will be a
lot of mid-level dry air and no precipitation is expected. The
wild card would be any light shower activity as the enhanced deep
lift perhaps interacts with shallow boundary layer moisture. This
looks unlikely to produce precipitation though.

A wavy zonal flow pattern will exist through the weekend with some
upper ridging on Saturday before the next trough swings into the
Plains states on Sunday. Temperatures will warm a bit this
weekend, but warming could be mitigated by potential cloud cover
and only weak low level warm advection. It appears that this
trough will be well organized and deepening, with a strong incoming
jet streak, but will again lack deep moisture over the local area.
Expect the deep moisture influx to the system to increase by late
Sunday with increasing precipitation, with the question being if
the upper low will advance east of the the local forecast area by
that time. This will depend much on the timing of the jet streak
as the trough is forecast to deepen, stall, and then travel
northeast Monday into Tuesday. If this transition occurs farther
west, then precipitation chances would increase quite a bit for
late Sunday into Monday. For now, have mainly slight chances for
what would likely be rain perhaps changing to snow. Will need to
keep an eye on how this evolves though and changes are possible.

Otherwise, expect nearly normal temperatures for the rest of next
week. The upper flow pattern becomes more zonal in the wake of the
early week storm system, and models are now hinting at what could
be an interesting storm system impacting some portion of the
central Plains by late next week...perhaps including Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Expect the low stratus (IFR) and light fog to continue across the
KTOP and KFOE terminals through the forecast period. KMHK had
ceilings of 1500 feet but these ceilings should fall to around 800
feet this evening. Patchy flurries and/or patchy freezing drizzle
may develop across the terminals Tonight through 15Z FRI.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 181741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Main concern in the short term is the ongoing light to moderate
snowfall across the CWA. Water vapor imagery depicts a few areas of
vorticity maxima within the broad upper trough axis, one rotating
over central KS while the other trailed across western KS. Enhanced
lift in the mid levels coinciding with pockets of instability has
produced heavier bands of snowfall. One snow band in particular
stretched from Ellsworth through Delphos and just south of Concordia
where 3 to 4 inches was reported. Similar reports were observed from
Morris County, northeast to portions of Pottawatomie and Washington
counties. Latest radar images at this hour were showing the back
edge of the heavier snow bands entering portions of north central
Kansas, while additional bands were shifting east towards east
central KS.

The snow is expected to gradually taper with the main
energy lifting north and east by early afternoon. Ice growth is lost
as mid level dry air increases; meanwhile the low levels stay
saturated as forecast soundings show weak lift lingering. Some
uncertainty remains on the extent of this lift, but for now will
leave the mention patchy freezing drizzle through mid afternoon for
much of the area. Overcast stratus and no temp advection to deal
with will hold temperatures to the lower 30s throughout the day.

For this evening, influence from the surface high remains over the
CWA as an upper trough progresses eastward over the northern plains.
Adjusted temps a few degrees down tonight as snow cover drops lows
into the low 20s north central and mid 20s elsewhere. Skies remain
overcast as low level forcing increases slightly below 850 mb. This
varies between guidance, but a slight chance mention for light
freezing drizzle was needed after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The long term currently appears pretty quiet overall. On Friday, a
trough will cross the Plains states, but locally there will be a
lot of mid-level dry air and no precipitation is expected. The
wild card would be any light shower activity as the enhanced deep
lift perhaps interacts with shallow boundary layer moisture. This
looks unlikely to produce precipitation though.

A wavy zonal flow pattern will exist through the weekend with some
upper ridging on Saturday before the next trough swings into the
Plains states on Sunday. Temperatures will warm a bit this
weekend, but warming could be mitigated by potential cloud cover
and only weak low level warm advection. It appears that this
trough will be well organized and deepening, with a strong incoming
jet streak, but will again lack deep moisture over the local area.
Expect the deep moisture influx to the system to increase by late
Sunday with increasing precipitation, with the question being if
the upper low will advance east of the the local forecast area by
that time. This will depend much on the timing of the jet streak
as the trough is forecast to deepen, stall, and then travel
northeast Monday into Tuesday. If this transition occurs farther
west, then precipitation chances would increase quite a bit for
late Sunday into Monday. For now, have mainly slight chances for
what would likely be rain perhaps changing to snow. Will need to
keep an eye on how this evolves though and changes are possible.

Otherwise, expect nearly normal temperatures for the rest of next
week. The upper flow pattern becomes more zonal in the wake of the
early week storm system, and models are now hinting at what could
be an interesting storm system impacting some portion of the
central Plains by late next week...perhaps including Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Expect the low stratus (IFR) and light fog to continue across the
KTOP and KFOE terminals through the forecast period. KMHK had
ceilings of 1500 feet but these ceilings should fall to around 800
feet this evening. Patchy flurries and/or patchy freezing drizzle
may develop across the terminals Tonight through 15Z FRI.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KICT 181740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DID RUN
WITH FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS MORNING:
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THICKENING FOG HAVE PROMPTED THE
UPDATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
WHERE VISIBILITIES TO HAVE DROPPED AROUND ONE HALF MILE IN MANY
AREAS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS REISSUED TO PLACE GREATER
EMPHASIS ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT VERY SLICK THAT HAVE RESULTED
IN MANY ACCIDENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENCE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 181740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DID RUN
WITH FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS MORNING:
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THICKENING FOG HAVE PROMPTED THE
UPDATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
WHERE VISIBILITIES TO HAVE DROPPED AROUND ONE HALF MILE IN MANY
AREAS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS REISSUED TO PLACE GREATER
EMPHASIS ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT VERY SLICK THAT HAVE RESULTED
IN MANY ACCIDENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENCE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 181740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DID RUN
WITH FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS MORNING:
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THICKENING FOG HAVE PROMPTED THE
UPDATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
WHERE VISIBILITIES TO HAVE DROPPED AROUND ONE HALF MILE IN MANY
AREAS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS REISSUED TO PLACE GREATER
EMPHASIS ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT VERY SLICK THAT HAVE RESULTED
IN MANY ACCIDENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENCE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 181740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. DID RUN
WITH FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
STARTING TO LOOK LIKE FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LAWSON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS MORNING:
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THICKENING FOG HAVE PROMPTED THE
UPDATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
WHERE VISIBILITIES TO HAVE DROPPED AROUND ONE HALF MILE IN MANY
AREAS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS REISSUED TO PLACE GREATER
EMPHASIS ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT VERY SLICK THAT HAVE RESULTED
IN MANY ACCIDENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENCE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE GOING TO BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT US OUR SNOW OVERNIGHT IS QUICKLY
TRACKING INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
REMAIN IN ITS WAKE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGH TODAY AND WILL LIKELY LOWER
BACK TO LIFR LEVELS AFTER DARK. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TO SET BACK IN
AFTER 03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 3SM OR LESS
BY 08Z. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LIFT AT LOWER LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  25  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  23  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  23  48  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  25  48  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  23  45  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  28  42  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 181717
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1117 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  25  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  23  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  23  48  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  25  48  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  23  45  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  28  42  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KGLD 181607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED FOR THE RECENT EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 181607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED FOR THE RECENT EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 181607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED FOR THE RECENT EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 181607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED FOR THE RECENT EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. SOME FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181442
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
842 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 839 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 181438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
838 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|



000
FXUS63 KDDC 181438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
838 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 836 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION CREATING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10   0   0   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|




000
FXUS63 KICT 181342
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS MORNING:
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THICKENING FOG HAVE PROMPTED THE
UPDATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
WHERE VISIBILITIES TO HAVE DROPPED AROUND ONE HALF MILE IN MANY
AREAS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS REISSUED TO PLACE GREATER
EMPHASIS ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT VERY SLICK THAT HAVE RESULTED
IN MANY ACCIDENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENSE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

LIFR FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER SC KS WHERE 1/2 TO 3/4SM VSBYS ARE
BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED KICT TO BRING VSBYS
DOWN INTO LIFR STATUS AS WELL AS CIGS. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL
IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CIGS & VSBYS ACRS SC KS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE
STILL MAY SEE CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR STATUS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
WORSEN INTO LIFR STATUS OVER ALL AREAS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 181342
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THIS MORNING:
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND THICKENING FOG HAVE PROMPTED THE
UPDATE. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
WHERE VISIBILITIES TO HAVE DROPPED AROUND ONE HALF MILE IN MANY
AREAS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS REISSUED TO PLACE GREATER
EMPHASIS ON ROADS AND HIGHWAYS THAT VERY SLICK THAT HAVE RESULTED
IN MANY ACCIDENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENSE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

LIFR FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER SC KS WHERE 1/2 TO 3/4SM VSBYS ARE
BECOMING MORE PREVALENT. AS SUCH HAVE UPDATED KICT TO BRING VSBYS
DOWN INTO LIFR STATUS AS WELL AS CIGS. EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL
IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CIGS & VSBYS ACRS SC KS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE
STILL MAY SEE CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR STATUS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
WORSEN INTO LIFR STATUS OVER ALL AREAS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 181255
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 181255
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 181255
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLIER UPDATE WAS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR CWA. DENSE
FOG DEVELOPED FROM OAKLEY TO TRIBUNE TO BURLINGTON...BUT HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE VARIABLE ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY FAVORS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THOUGH RAP DOES
SHOW THE PATCH OF FOG NEAR OAKLEY SPREADING A LITTLE BIT MORE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD GRAHAM COUNTY. I AM NOT AS SURE ABOUT
HRRR WHICH ACTUALLY SHOWED FOG EXPANDING FROM THE COLORADO BORDER
TO THE EAST AND LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE TD
VALUES ARE IN OUR EAST AND LIGHT FOG IS IN PLACE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF DENSE FOG COVERAGE INCREASED AND SPREAD EAST AROUND
OR AFTER SUNRISE...SO I DECIDED TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE
ADVISORY.

WHILE CURRENT DENSE FOG COVERAGE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY...ROAD
CONDITIONS AFTER YESTERDAYS FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LAST NIGHTS LIGHT
SNOW ARE IN POOR CONDITION ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. EVEN PATCHY
DENSE FOG WITH THESE ROAD CONDITIONS WOULD MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAN SPS DESPITE
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KICT 181155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENSE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CIGS POSE BY FAR THE GREATEST PROBLEM WITH MULTIPLE DECKS RANGING
FROM 300FT TO ~3,000FT. MOREOVER...THERE ARE NO TRENDS...BE IT
SPATIAL...LOCATION...IMPROVING...LOWERING OR OTHERWISE. STARTED BY
PLACING NEARLY ALL TERMINALS IN IFR/LIFR CIG STATUS THRU ~18Z WITH
A FEW AREAS PERHAPS REACHING "LOW-END" MVFR STATUS THIS AFTN. THE
ONLY CONSISTENT TREND HAS BEEN THE -SN WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE
E/NE. AT ISSUANCE...THE -SN CONTINUED ROUGHLY ALONG & NE OF A LINE
FROM KCNK-KK78-KEMP-KCNU. WHERE THE -SN HAS BEEN OCCURRING VBSYS
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT & VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2SM. UPDATES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 181155
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
555 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENSE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

CIGS POSE BY FAR THE GREATEST PROBLEM WITH MULTIPLE DECKS RANGING
FROM 300FT TO ~3,000FT. MOREOVER...THERE ARE NO TRENDS...BE IT
SPATIAL...LOCATION...IMPROVING...LOWERING OR OTHERWISE. STARTED BY
PLACING NEARLY ALL TERMINALS IN IFR/LIFR CIG STATUS THRU ~18Z WITH
A FEW AREAS PERHAPS REACHING "LOW-END" MVFR STATUS THIS AFTN. THE
ONLY CONSISTENT TREND HAS BEEN THE -SN WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE
E/NE. AT ISSUANCE...THE -SN CONTINUED ROUGHLY ALONG & NE OF A LINE
FROM KCNK-KK78-KEMP-KCNU. WHERE THE -SN HAS BEEN OCCURRING VBSYS
HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT & VERY EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2SM. UPDATES ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 181146
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
546 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Main concern in the short term is the ongoing light to moderate
snowfall across the CWA. Water vapor imagery depicts a few areas of
vorticity maxima within the broad upper trough axis, one rotating
over central KS while the other trailed across western KS. Enhanced
lift in the mid levels coinciding with pockets of instability has
produced heavier bands of snowfall. One snow band in particular
stretched from Ellsworth through Delphos and just south of Concordia
where 3 to 4 inches was reported. Similar reports were observed from
Morris County, northeast to portions of Pottawatomie and Washington
counties. Latest radar images at this hour were showing the back
edge of the heavier snow bands entering portions of north central
Kansas, while additional bands were shifting east towards east
central KS.

The snow is expected to gradually taper with the main
energy lifting north and east by early afternoon. Ice growth is lost
as mid level dry air increases; meanwhile the low levels stay
saturated as forecast soundings show weak lift lingering. Some
uncertainty remains on the extent of this lift, but for now will
leave the mention patchy freezing drizzle through mid afternoon for
much of the area. Overcast stratus and no temp advection to deal
with will hold temperatures to the lower 30s throughout the day.

For this evening, influence from the surface high remains over the
CWA as an upper trough progresses eastward over the northern plains.
Adjusted temps a few degrees down tonight as snow cover drops lows
into the low 20s north central and mid 20s elsewhere. Skies remain
overcast as low level forcing increases slightly below 850 mb. This
varies between guidance, but a slight chance mention for light
freezing drizzle was needed after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The long term currently appears pretty quiet overall. On Friday, a
trough will cross the Plains states, but locally there will be a
lot of mid-level dry air and no precipitation is expected. The
wild card would be any light shower activity as the enhanced deep
lift perhaps interacts with shallow boundary layer moisture. This
looks unlikely to produce precipitation though.

A wavy zonal flow pattern will exist through the weekend with some
upper ridging on Saturday before the next trough swings into the
Plains states on Sunday. Temperatures will warm a bit this
weekend, but warming could be mitigated by potential cloud cover
and only weak low level warm advection. It appears that this
trough will be well organized and deepening, with a strong incoming
jet streak, but will again lack deep moisture over the local area.
Expect the deep moisture influx to the system to increase by late
Sunday with increasing precipitation, with the question being if
the upper low will advance east of the the local forecast area by
that time. This will depend much on the timing of the jet streak
as the trough is forecast to deepen, stall, and then travel
northeast Monday into Tuesday. If this transition occurs farther
west, then precipitation chances would increase quite a bit for
late Sunday into Monday. For now, have mainly slight chances for
what would likely be rain perhaps changing to snow. Will need to
keep an eye on how this evolves though and changes are possible.

Otherwise, expect nearly normal temperatures for the rest of next
week. The upper flow pattern becomes more zonal in the wake of the
early week storm system, and models are now hinting at what could
be an interesting storm system impacting some portion of the
central Plains by late next week...perhaps including Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Latest radar trends indicate light snow underneath MVFR stratus
will persist through 15Z at KTOP/KFOE. Observations upstream note
IFR stratus pushing eastward while short term guidance hints at
ceilings lowering to just under 1000 feet as the snowfall ends.
These conditions persist through the day with drier air near the
surface attempting to lift cloud deck back to low end MVFR by late
afternoon. Conditions hover near low end MVFR through forecast
period with a low potential for patchy freezing drizzle to impact
terminals overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KTOP 181146
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
546 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Main concern in the short term is the ongoing light to moderate
snowfall across the CWA. Water vapor imagery depicts a few areas of
vorticity maxima within the broad upper trough axis, one rotating
over central KS while the other trailed across western KS. Enhanced
lift in the mid levels coinciding with pockets of instability has
produced heavier bands of snowfall. One snow band in particular
stretched from Ellsworth through Delphos and just south of Concordia
where 3 to 4 inches was reported. Similar reports were observed from
Morris County, northeast to portions of Pottawatomie and Washington
counties. Latest radar images at this hour were showing the back
edge of the heavier snow bands entering portions of north central
Kansas, while additional bands were shifting east towards east
central KS.

The snow is expected to gradually taper with the main
energy lifting north and east by early afternoon. Ice growth is lost
as mid level dry air increases; meanwhile the low levels stay
saturated as forecast soundings show weak lift lingering. Some
uncertainty remains on the extent of this lift, but for now will
leave the mention patchy freezing drizzle through mid afternoon for
much of the area. Overcast stratus and no temp advection to deal
with will hold temperatures to the lower 30s throughout the day.

For this evening, influence from the surface high remains over the
CWA as an upper trough progresses eastward over the northern plains.
Adjusted temps a few degrees down tonight as snow cover drops lows
into the low 20s north central and mid 20s elsewhere. Skies remain
overcast as low level forcing increases slightly below 850 mb. This
varies between guidance, but a slight chance mention for light
freezing drizzle was needed after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The long term currently appears pretty quiet overall. On Friday, a
trough will cross the Plains states, but locally there will be a
lot of mid-level dry air and no precipitation is expected. The
wild card would be any light shower activity as the enhanced deep
lift perhaps interacts with shallow boundary layer moisture. This
looks unlikely to produce precipitation though.

A wavy zonal flow pattern will exist through the weekend with some
upper ridging on Saturday before the next trough swings into the
Plains states on Sunday. Temperatures will warm a bit this
weekend, but warming could be mitigated by potential cloud cover
and only weak low level warm advection. It appears that this
trough will be well organized and deepening, with a strong incoming
jet streak, but will again lack deep moisture over the local area.
Expect the deep moisture influx to the system to increase by late
Sunday with increasing precipitation, with the question being if
the upper low will advance east of the the local forecast area by
that time. This will depend much on the timing of the jet streak
as the trough is forecast to deepen, stall, and then travel
northeast Monday into Tuesday. If this transition occurs farther
west, then precipitation chances would increase quite a bit for
late Sunday into Monday. For now, have mainly slight chances for
what would likely be rain perhaps changing to snow. Will need to
keep an eye on how this evolves though and changes are possible.

Otherwise, expect nearly normal temperatures for the rest of next
week. The upper flow pattern becomes more zonal in the wake of the
early week storm system, and models are now hinting at what could
be an interesting storm system impacting some portion of the
central Plains by late next week...perhaps including Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Latest radar trends indicate light snow underneath MVFR stratus
will persist through 15Z at KTOP/KFOE. Observations upstream note
IFR stratus pushing eastward while short term guidance hints at
ceilings lowering to just under 1000 feet as the snowfall ends.
These conditions persist through the day with drier air near the
surface attempting to lift cloud deck back to low end MVFR by late
afternoon. Conditions hover near low end MVFR through forecast
period with a low potential for patchy freezing drizzle to impact
terminals overnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KGLD 181139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 181139
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SUPPORTED FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHICH IS SPREADING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE AT
KGLD...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. VLIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING AS MAIN MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOW STRATUS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODEL
DATA MAY BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY LINGERING SNOW PACK...SO I KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AFTER MIDDAY FOR BOTH TAFS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 181113
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
413 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 06Z-15Z THURSDAY...MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR MIX THRU 09Z. CEILINGS MAINLY 1/4SM
TO 1/2SM IN A SNOW/FREEZING FOG MIX...WITH PERIODS 1-3SM THRU 09Z.
FROM 15Z ONWARD...IFR CONDITIONS TREND TO VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN-OVC006-010 UP TO BKN100 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. 3-6SM IN FOG DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY VARIABLE THRU 15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 181113
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
413 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

UPDATE TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SNOW BAND HAS FALLEN
APART AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS COME TO AN END. UPPER LOW IS NOW
OVER NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE. WHILE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING DENSE FOG REDEVELOPMENT...BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...SO
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS MINIMAL. I CANT JUSTIFY A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY JUST FOR FREEZING FOG...BUT FELT THE NEED TO KEEP
A SPS OUT TO COVER FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AND IF FOG CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE I MAY NEED
TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 06Z-15Z THURSDAY...MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR MIX THRU 09Z. CEILINGS MAINLY 1/4SM
TO 1/2SM IN A SNOW/FREEZING FOG MIX...WITH PERIODS 1-3SM THRU 09Z.
FROM 15Z ONWARD...IFR CONDITIONS TREND TO VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN-OVC006-010 UP TO BKN100 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. 3-6SM IN FOG DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY VARIABLE THRU 15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 181001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
401 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENSE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DRIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER THE SNOW
DIMINISHES...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 181001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
401 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENSE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DRIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER THE SNOW
DIMINISHES...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 181001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
401 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENSE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DRIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER THE SNOW
DIMINISHES...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 181001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
401 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR AND
OBSERVATIONS...BEST LIFT IS EXITING AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...CHANGE OVER TO TRACE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC. APPEARS THAT TRACE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE/SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KS...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE VICINITY OF FREEZING. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS...ONLY EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL 1500 UTC AND WILL GO FROM THERE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF IT IS EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF
I-35...ALTHOUGH OK BORDER COUNTIES MAY ESCAPE GIVEN VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...WARM GROUND AND TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
FREEZING.

TONIGHT:
HARD PRESSED TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE DRIZZLE OR FOG TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST KS...GIVEN NAM BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS LOOK
SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THEY ARE OVERDONE BY MODEL SNOW COVER. GFS IS
NOT AS AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND ABSENCE OF
GOOD INFLUX OF DRIER AIR.

FRI-SAT:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED...WITH WARMUP ON SAT AS WEAK
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. THE BIG QUESTION IS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
BASED ON ISSUES WITH MODELS NOT ERODING SNOW QUICKLY ENOUGH AND
RESULTANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/THERMAL PROFILES...WOULD
NORMALLY THINK CLOUDS WERE OVERDONE. BUT GIVEN THE VERY WEAK FLOW
AND ABSENSE OF PUSH OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR...MAY BE STUCK IN
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. BASED ON FAIRLY GOOD INCREASE
IN 850MB MOISTURE ON SUN...OPTED TO KEEP LOW POPS GOING. WITH
APPROACHING FRONT...SHOULD SEE MORE CHANCES ON MON. WANTED TO NIX
CHANCES MON NIGHT WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING THROUGH AND LIFT EXITING SOUTHEAST KS AT 0000 UTC
TUE...BUT CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP IT. DOES APPEAR TO BE SLIM CHANCE
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS LATER ON TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ROTATED AROUND LOW. OF NOTE...BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING DEVELOPING
SYSTEM FOR NEXT THU-FRI AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
US...STAY TUNED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DRIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER THE SNOW
DIMINISHES...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  31  39  31 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      35  28  39  30 /  40  10  10  10
NEWTON          34  29  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
ELDORADO        36  30  38  31 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  32  40  31 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         35  25  40  28 /  30  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      34  23  38  28 /  30  10  10   0
SALINA          35  25  37  30 /  40  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       34  27  38  30 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     39  34  41  33 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         37  31  38  33 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            37  31  37  33 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  32  40  33 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180959
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180959
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180959
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180959
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
359 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH|



000
FXUS63 KTOP 180946
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Main concern in the short term is the ongoing light to moderate
snowfall across the CWA. Water vapor imagery depicts a few areas of
vorticity maxima within the broad upper trough axis, one rotating
over central KS while the other trailed across western KS. Enhanced
lift in the mid levels coinciding with pockets of instability has
produced heavier bands of snowfall. One snow band in particular
stretched from Ellsworth through Delphos and just south of Concordia
where 3 to 4 inches was reported. Similar reports were observed from
Morris County, northeast to portions of Pottawatomie and Washington
counties. Latest radar images at this hour were showing the back
edge of the heavier snow bands entering portions of north central
Kansas, while additional bands were shifting east towards east
central KS.

The snow is expected to gradually taper with the main
energy lifting north and east by early afternoon. Ice growth is lost
as mid level dry air increases; meanwhile the low levels stay
saturated as forecast soundings show weak lift lingering. Some
uncertainty remains on the extent of this lift, but for now will
leave the mention patchy freezing drizzle through mid afternoon for
much of the area. Overcast stratus and no temp advection to deal
with will hold temperatures to the lower 30s throughout the day.

For this evening, influence from the surface high remains over the
CWA as an upper trough progresses eastward over the northern plains.
Adjusted temps a few degrees down tonight as snow cover drops lows
into the low 20s north central and mid 20s elsewhere. Skies remain
overcast as low level forcing increases slightly below 850 mb. This
varies between guidance, but a slight chance mention for light
freezing drizzle was needed after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The long term currently appears pretty quiet overall. On Friday, a
trough will cross the Plains states, but locally there will be a
lot of mid-level dry air and no precipitation is expected. The
wild card would be any light shower activity as the enhanced deep
lift perhaps interacts with shallow boundary layer moisture. This
looks unlikely to produce precipitation though.

A wavy zonal flow pattern will exist through the weekend with some
upper ridging on Saturday before the next trough swings into the
Plains states on Sunday. Temperatures will warm a bit this
weekend, but warming could be mitigated by potential cloud cover
and only weak low level warm advection. It appears that this
trough will be well organized and deepening, with a strong incoming
jet streak, but will again lack deep moisture over the local area.
Expect the deep moisture influx to the system to increase by late
Sunday with increasing precipitation, with the question being if
the upper low will advance east of the the local forecast area by
that time. This will depend much on the timing of the jet streak
as the trough is forecast to deepen, stall, and then travel
northeast Monday into Tuesday. If this transition occurs farther
west, then precipitation chances would increase quite a bit for
late Sunday into Monday. For now, have mainly slight chances for
what would likely be rain perhaps changing to snow. Will need to
keep an eye on how this evolves though and changes are possible.

Otherwise, expect nearly normal temperatures for the rest of next
week. The upper flow pattern becomes more zonal in the wake of the
early week storm system, and models are now hinting at what could
be an interesting storm system impacting some portion of the
central Plains by late next week...perhaps including Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Expect heavier snows at TAF sites to occur mainly between now and
09z before backing off in intensity through the morning hours.
Cigs will still be low however and IFR conditions continue. Think
cigs will start to lift at or above 1000ft agl around the noon
hour.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 180946
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

Main concern in the short term is the ongoing light to moderate
snowfall across the CWA. Water vapor imagery depicts a few areas of
vorticity maxima within the broad upper trough axis, one rotating
over central KS while the other trailed across western KS. Enhanced
lift in the mid levels coinciding with pockets of instability has
produced heavier bands of snowfall. One snow band in particular
stretched from Ellsworth through Delphos and just south of Concordia
where 3 to 4 inches was reported. Similar reports were observed from
Morris County, northeast to portions of Pottawatomie and Washington
counties. Latest radar images at this hour were showing the back
edge of the heavier snow bands entering portions of north central
Kansas, while additional bands were shifting east towards east
central KS.

The snow is expected to gradually taper with the main
energy lifting north and east by early afternoon. Ice growth is lost
as mid level dry air increases; meanwhile the low levels stay
saturated as forecast soundings show weak lift lingering. Some
uncertainty remains on the extent of this lift, but for now will
leave the mention patchy freezing drizzle through mid afternoon for
much of the area. Overcast stratus and no temp advection to deal
with will hold temperatures to the lower 30s throughout the day.

For this evening, influence from the surface high remains over the
CWA as an upper trough progresses eastward over the northern plains.
Adjusted temps a few degrees down tonight as snow cover drops lows
into the low 20s north central and mid 20s elsewhere. Skies remain
overcast as low level forcing increases slightly below 850 mb. This
varies between guidance, but a slight chance mention for light
freezing drizzle was needed after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

The long term currently appears pretty quiet overall. On Friday, a
trough will cross the Plains states, but locally there will be a
lot of mid-level dry air and no precipitation is expected. The
wild card would be any light shower activity as the enhanced deep
lift perhaps interacts with shallow boundary layer moisture. This
looks unlikely to produce precipitation though.

A wavy zonal flow pattern will exist through the weekend with some
upper ridging on Saturday before the next trough swings into the
Plains states on Sunday. Temperatures will warm a bit this
weekend, but warming could be mitigated by potential cloud cover
and only weak low level warm advection. It appears that this
trough will be well organized and deepening, with a strong incoming
jet streak, but will again lack deep moisture over the local area.
Expect the deep moisture influx to the system to increase by late
Sunday with increasing precipitation, with the question being if
the upper low will advance east of the the local forecast area by
that time. This will depend much on the timing of the jet streak
as the trough is forecast to deepen, stall, and then travel
northeast Monday into Tuesday. If this transition occurs farther
west, then precipitation chances would increase quite a bit for
late Sunday into Monday. For now, have mainly slight chances for
what would likely be rain perhaps changing to snow. Will need to
keep an eye on how this evolves though and changes are possible.

Otherwise, expect nearly normal temperatures for the rest of next
week. The upper flow pattern becomes more zonal in the wake of the
early week storm system, and models are now hinting at what could
be an interesting storm system impacting some portion of the
central Plains by late next week...perhaps including Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Expect heavier snows at TAF sites to occur mainly between now and
09z before backing off in intensity through the morning hours.
Cigs will still be low however and IFR conditions continue. Think
cigs will start to lift at or above 1000ft agl around the noon
hour.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST this morning FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KGLD 180945
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 06Z-15Z THURSDAY...MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR MIX THRU 09Z. CEILINGS MAINLY 1/4SM
TO 1/2SM IN A SNOW/FREEZING FOG MIX...WITH PERIODS 1-3SM THRU 09Z.
FROM 15Z ONWARD...IFR CONDITIONS TREND TO VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN-OVC006-010 UP TO BKN100 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. 3-6SM IN FOG DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY VARIABLE THRU 15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180945
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS WITH AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ALONG
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA.

REGARDING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING....

RADAR AND SURROUNDING OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT FORMED ON
BACK SIDE OF H7 LOW MOVING EAST OVER OUR EASTERN CWA. THIS SNOW HAS
HELPED MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SHIFT IN LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE MODELS...I
AM STILL CONCERNED THAT LIGHT WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND.
FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION/POOLING. OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING
SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AROUND 12-15Z...WITH ANY FOG
CLEARING BY MIDDAY. AFTER 12Z I AM SKEPTICAL THAT FLOW WOULD ALLOW
FOR ENOUGH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LINGER
A LITTLE LONGER. WITH THIS IN MIND I PLAN ON HOLDING ONTO CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH EXPIRATION IN CASE I NEED TO
EXTEND IT IN TIME FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH 15Z.

REST OF TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST
TODAY AND AIR MASS WILL BEING MODERATING AND DRYING AS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THERE MAYBE DECENT CLEARING WHICH COULD
SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S (FOR LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOW PACK).
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY HOW MUCH CLEARING AS MODELS HOLD ONTO STRATUS
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TODAYS HIGHS.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. NAM AND SREF BL RH CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF SNOW PACK...AND SUPPORT FOG/STRATUS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. I ADDED PATCHY FOG TO TONIGHT AS
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING BL MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW AS TROUGH MAY BE EAST OF OUR CWA. THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
SUBFREEZING...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT ANY FOG WOULD BE DENSE
ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT ICE ACCUMULATION (FREEZING FOG). I AM
LEAVING FOG OUT OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO SEE HOW
THINGS EVOLVE TONIGHT FIRST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT. COMPLICATION TO TEMP FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACT OF DEEPER SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN COLDER AIR TO THE PLAINS WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MOSTLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION MONDAY WILL BEGIN AS SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT WILL BECOME RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AFTER SUNSET...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE AS STALLING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST STATES...BUT THE TRI STATE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 06Z-15Z THURSDAY...MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR MIX THRU 09Z. CEILINGS MAINLY 1/4SM
TO 1/2SM IN A SNOW/FREEZING FOG MIX...WITH PERIODS 1-3SM THRU 09Z.
FROM 15Z ONWARD...IFR CONDITIONS TREND TO VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN-OVC006-010 UP TO BKN100 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. 3-6SM IN FOG DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY VARIABLE THRU 15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
     MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ031-046-064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ031-046-064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ031-046-064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
WAS PASSING INTO EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE OR
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN PLACE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY FROM DODGE CITY EASTWARD WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. THE SUN OUGHT TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE
FARTHER WEST AT GARDEN CITY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, WHERE IN THE
ABSENCE OF SNOW COVER, TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S TO PERHAPS 40F. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN LOCATIONS
THAT RECEIVED MORE SNOW AND WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FROM
FORD COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD TO PRATT AND STAFFORD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RESPONSE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO
THE SOUTH, WITH ONLY MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT FROM DODGE CITY
EASTWARD, BUT TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL LIFT TO RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUGHT TO BE IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SKIES MAY STAY PARTIALLY CLEAR. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
COVER AND IN THE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DODGE CITY, PRATT
AND LARNED SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY MORNING (UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30F).

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  28  45  25 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  40  25  45  23 /   0  10  10   0
EHA  41  26  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  27  47  25 /   0  10  10   0
HYS  36  26  44  23 /  10  10  10   0
P28  37  30  41  29 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ031-046-064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180602
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 / 100  10  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60   0  10  10
EHA  30  40  30  48 /  40   0  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40   0  10  10
HYS  25  33  25  42 /  70  10  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180602
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 / 100  10  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60   0  10  10
EHA  30  40  30  48 /  40   0  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40   0  10  10
HYS  25  33  25  42 /  70  10  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180602
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 / 100  10  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60   0  10  10
EHA  30  40  30  48 /  40   0  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40   0  10  10
HYS  25  33  25  42 /  70  10  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180602
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 09Z AT KDDC AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. IFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AT KGCK AND KDDC THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BY 17-20Z
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO KGCK/KDDC
BEFORE 06Z AS ISENTROPC LIFT INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 / 100  10  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60   0  10  10
EHA  30  40  30  48 /  40   0  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40   0  10  10
HYS  25  33  25  42 /  70  10  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088-089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH|




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180548
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TO TRACK BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL NOW PIVOTING THRU
THE REGION. LOOKING FOR UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION AS THIS SWINGS
THRU. HAVE ALSO KEPT IN MENTION OF FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE THRU 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 06Z-15Z THURSDAY...MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR MIX THRU 09Z. CEILINGS MAINLY 1/4SM
TO 1/2SM IN A SNOW/FREEZING FOG MIX...WITH PERIODS 1-3SM THRU 09Z.
FROM 15Z ONWARD...IFR CONDITIONS TREND TO VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN-OVC006-010 UP TO BKN100 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. 3-6SM IN FOG DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY VARIABLE THRU 15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 180548
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TO TRACK BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL NOW PIVOTING THRU
THE REGION. LOOKING FOR UP TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION AS THIS SWINGS
THRU. HAVE ALSO KEPT IN MENTION OF FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE THRU 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 06Z-15Z THURSDAY...MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR MIX THRU 09Z. CEILINGS MAINLY 1/4SM
TO 1/2SM IN A SNOW/FREEZING FOG MIX...WITH PERIODS 1-3SM THRU 09Z.
FROM 15Z ONWARD...IFR CONDITIONS TREND TO VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN-OVC006-010 UP TO BKN100 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. 3-6SM IN FOG DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY VARIABLE THRU 15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 180546
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The forecast for tonight continues to be on track with little change
in expected snowfall amounts. Precipitation continued to develop
ahead of the lead shortwave moving across the Texas Panhandle across
much of Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Stronger second wave was
pivoting northeast and was located over eastern New Mexico. Moisture
will continue to spread northward this evening. High resolution
short term models spread the precipitation northeast into the
forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings show moistening of
the low levels this evening due to evaporative cooling with the
onset of precipitation. Soundings still show a brief window of sleet
with the onset of precipitation and have already had some isolated
ice pellets or light snow fall this afternoon. Cross sections show
deep layer frontogenesis along with some convective instability as
well as some CSI (convective symmetric instability) so it is still
likely that we will see some southwest to northeast oriented bands
develop with locally higher amounts. There also may be some isolated
thunder as well as a few lightning strikes. In general have tweaked
the snow amounts slightly upward from the prior forecast, but by
only a few tenths of an inch. Timing is just a little slower for the
onset of the precipitation, mainly for areas along the Nebraska
border and have delayed onset by a couple of hours. Strongest upward
vertical motion is expected across the forecast area from mid-late
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
trough rotates northeast. Expect the best snowfall rates during this
period, before tapering off. Also with there may be some freezing
drizzle mixing with the snow after 4 AM Thursday as soundings
briefly show some drying the in the dendritic ice crystal growth
region. Will see little diurnal temperature change tonight with lows
in the mid to upper 20s. No change to the winter weather advisory
for tonight across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough early Thursday...drying
will take place above 700mb with time...but remain fairly saturated
below. Therefore...although there may be some lingering very light
snow/flurries...the lack of cloud ice aloft and weak forcing in the
low levels will still favor some patchy freezing drizzle as
temperatures remain at or below freezing for much of the day. The
lift is weak and any additional accumulations of light snow or
freezing drizzle beyond 9 am should be very light. This scenario may
linger into Thursday night as well as the northern stream and the next
southern stream shortwaves approach and begin to phase...but any
precipitation should remain very light and patchy if at all. The
phasing of the two upper trough will focus precip to the south and
east of the county warning area into Friday so will keep Friday and
Friday night dry. Lowered highs through the 30s on Thursday and
Friday with the expected snowcover and overcast conditions.

May see some breaks in the clouds by Saturday...but expect to still
be dealing with some residual snow on the ground in some places...so
have limited highs to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warm advection
will increase across the area into Sunday ahead of the next
deepening trough over the northern plains. Will therefore warm highs
through the mid and upper 40s Sunday into Monday before the next
cold front Monday night lowers highs back into the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Will keep a chance for rain across mainly the eastern
portions of the cwa Sunday night into Monday in the warm
sector...then a chance for rain or snow Monday night and  Tuesday
with the colder air in the wake of the front.

Will go dry in the wake of the departing trough on Wednesday but
keep highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Expect heavier snows at TAF sites to occur mainly between now and
09z before backing off in intensity through the morning hours.
Cigs will still be low however and IFR conditions continue. Think
cigs will start to lift at or above 1000ft agl around the noon
hour.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 180546
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1146 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The forecast for tonight continues to be on track with little change
in expected snowfall amounts. Precipitation continued to develop
ahead of the lead shortwave moving across the Texas Panhandle across
much of Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Stronger second wave was
pivoting northeast and was located over eastern New Mexico. Moisture
will continue to spread northward this evening. High resolution
short term models spread the precipitation northeast into the
forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings show moistening of
the low levels this evening due to evaporative cooling with the
onset of precipitation. Soundings still show a brief window of sleet
with the onset of precipitation and have already had some isolated
ice pellets or light snow fall this afternoon. Cross sections show
deep layer frontogenesis along with some convective instability as
well as some CSI (convective symmetric instability) so it is still
likely that we will see some southwest to northeast oriented bands
develop with locally higher amounts. There also may be some isolated
thunder as well as a few lightning strikes. In general have tweaked
the snow amounts slightly upward from the prior forecast, but by
only a few tenths of an inch. Timing is just a little slower for the
onset of the precipitation, mainly for areas along the Nebraska
border and have delayed onset by a couple of hours. Strongest upward
vertical motion is expected across the forecast area from mid-late
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
trough rotates northeast. Expect the best snowfall rates during this
period, before tapering off. Also with there may be some freezing
drizzle mixing with the snow after 4 AM Thursday as soundings
briefly show some drying the in the dendritic ice crystal growth
region. Will see little diurnal temperature change tonight with lows
in the mid to upper 20s. No change to the winter weather advisory
for tonight across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough early Thursday...drying
will take place above 700mb with time...but remain fairly saturated
below. Therefore...although there may be some lingering very light
snow/flurries...the lack of cloud ice aloft and weak forcing in the
low levels will still favor some patchy freezing drizzle as
temperatures remain at or below freezing for much of the day. The
lift is weak and any additional accumulations of light snow or
freezing drizzle beyond 9 am should be very light. This scenario may
linger into Thursday night as well as the northern stream and the next
southern stream shortwaves approach and begin to phase...but any
precipitation should remain very light and patchy if at all. The
phasing of the two upper trough will focus precip to the south and
east of the county warning area into Friday so will keep Friday and
Friday night dry. Lowered highs through the 30s on Thursday and
Friday with the expected snowcover and overcast conditions.

May see some breaks in the clouds by Saturday...but expect to still
be dealing with some residual snow on the ground in some places...so
have limited highs to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warm advection
will increase across the area into Sunday ahead of the next
deepening trough over the northern plains. Will therefore warm highs
through the mid and upper 40s Sunday into Monday before the next
cold front Monday night lowers highs back into the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Will keep a chance for rain across mainly the eastern
portions of the cwa Sunday night into Monday in the warm
sector...then a chance for rain or snow Monday night and  Tuesday
with the colder air in the wake of the front.

Will go dry in the wake of the departing trough on Wednesday but
keep highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Expect heavier snows at TAF sites to occur mainly between now and
09z before backing off in intensity through the morning hours.
Cigs will still be low however and IFR conditions continue. Think
cigs will start to lift at or above 1000ft agl around the noon
hour.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KICT 180541
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE WICHITA AREA WHILE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED. AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN
SLICK SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES. FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE OR ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR NEAR STAFFORD TO SALINA...MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DRIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER THE SNOW
DIMINISHES...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  90  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  80  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  90  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  90  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 180541
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE WICHITA AREA WHILE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED. AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN
SLICK SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES. FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE OR ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR NEAR STAFFORD TO SALINA...MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DRIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER THE SNOW
DIMINISHES...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  90  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  80  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  90  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  90  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 180541
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE WICHITA AREA WHILE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED. AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN
SLICK SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES. FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE OR ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR NEAR STAFFORD TO SALINA...MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DRIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER THE SNOW
DIMINISHES...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  90  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  80  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  90  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  90  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 180541
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE WICHITA AREA WHILE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED. AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN
SLICK SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES. FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE OR ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR NEAR STAFFORD TO SALINA...MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DRIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO
THE IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTER THE SNOW
DIMINISHES...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED IFR/LIFR THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF FOG MAY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  90  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  80  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  90  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  90  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 12Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL IN NORTHERN ZONES...SO HAVE
LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS IN FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST OBS TREND OVER LAST FEW
HOURS. AREA REMAINS IN THE 20S UNDER A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. FOG CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KGLD DOES
SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS NOW NORTHERLY AND WITH THIS COLDER AIR IS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO SYSTEM. NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WILL AFFECT CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...ENDING DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE A SLOW TRANSITION THOUGH AS LOW LEVELS WINDS STILL
CARRYING ESE COMPONENT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF THE LOW
OVER SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ADVISORY STILL ONGOING AND PLAN
ON UPDATING IN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 06Z-15Z THURSDAY...MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR MIX THRU 09Z. CEILINGS MAINLY 1/4SM
TO 1/2SM IN A SNOW/FREEZING FOG MIX...WITH PERIODS 1-3SM THRU 09Z.
FROM 15Z ONWARD...IFR CONDITIONS TREND TO VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN-OVC006-010 UP TO BKN100 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. 3-6SM IN FOG DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY VARIABLE THRU 15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 180533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 12Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL IN NORTHERN ZONES...SO HAVE
LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS IN FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST OBS TREND OVER LAST FEW
HOURS. AREA REMAINS IN THE 20S UNDER A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. FOG CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KGLD DOES
SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS NOW NORTHERLY AND WITH THIS COLDER AIR IS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO SYSTEM. NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WILL AFFECT CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...ENDING DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE A SLOW TRANSITION THOUGH AS LOW LEVELS WINDS STILL
CARRYING ESE COMPONENT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF THE LOW
OVER SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ADVISORY STILL ONGOING AND PLAN
ON UPDATING IN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES FROM 06Z-15Z THURSDAY...MAINLY LIFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR MIX THRU 09Z. CEILINGS MAINLY 1/4SM
TO 1/2SM IN A SNOW/FREEZING FOG MIX...WITH PERIODS 1-3SM THRU 09Z.
FROM 15Z ONWARD...IFR CONDITIONS TREND TO VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN-OVC006-010 UP TO BKN100 BY 00Z
FRIDAY. 3-6SM IN FOG DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. WINDS MAINLY VARIABLE THRU 15Z...THEN WSW 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180421
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
921 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 12Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL IN NORTHERN ZONES...SO HAVE
LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS IN FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST OBS TREND OVER LAST FEW
HOURS. AREA REMAINS IN THE 20S UNDER A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. FOG CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KGLD DOES
SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS NOW NORTHERLY AND WITH THIS COLDER AIR IS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO SYSTEM. NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WILL AFFECT CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...ENDING DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE A SLOW TRANSITION THOUGH AS LOW LEVELS WINDS STILL
CARRYING ESE COMPONENT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF THE LOW
OVER SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ADVISORY STILL ONGOING AND PLAN
ON UPDATING IN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180421
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
921 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 12Z
THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL IN NORTHERN ZONES...SO HAVE
LEFT SNOW AMOUNTS IN FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST OBS TREND OVER LAST FEW
HOURS. AREA REMAINS IN THE 20S UNDER A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. FOG CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KGLD DOES
SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS NOW NORTHERLY AND WITH THIS COLDER AIR IS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO SYSTEM. NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WILL AFFECT CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...ENDING DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE A SLOW TRANSITION THOUGH AS LOW LEVELS WINDS STILL
CARRYING ESE COMPONENT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF THE LOW
OVER SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ADVISORY STILL ONGOING AND PLAN
ON UPDATING IN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 180328
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
828 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST OBS TREND OVER LAST FEW
HOURS. AREA REMAINS IN THE 20S UNDER A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. FOG CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KGLD DOES
SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS NOW NORTHERLY AND WITH THIS COLDER AIR IS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO SYSTEM. NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WILL AFFECT CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...ENDING DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE A SLOW TRANSITION THOUGH AS LOW LEVELS WINDS STILL
CARRYING ESE COMPONENT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF THE LOW
OVER SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ADVISORY STILL ONGOING AND PLAN
ON UPDATING IN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 180328
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
828 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST OBS TREND OVER LAST FEW
HOURS. AREA REMAINS IN THE 20S UNDER A THICK LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. FOG CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR FACTOR AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KGLD DOES
SHOW MID-LEVEL WINDS NOW NORTHERLY AND WITH THIS COLDER AIR IS
STARTING TO WRAP INTO SYSTEM. NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WILL AFFECT CHANGEOVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW...ENDING DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE A SLOW TRANSITION THOUGH AS LOW LEVELS WINDS STILL
CARRYING ESE COMPONENT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF THE LOW
OVER SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ADVISORY STILL ONGOING AND PLAN
ON UPDATING IN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 180247
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
847 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE WICHITA AREA WHILE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN SATURATED. AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN
SLICK SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES. FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE OR ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR NEAR STAFFORD TO SALINA...MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH 2-4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MINIMAL CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL SLOWLY EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN IFR/LIFR ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
REDEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY WHEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME
FZDZ MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 19-21Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  90  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  80  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  90  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  90  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  90  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 180015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION CONTINUES TO SEE ADVERSE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED
INTO SW KANSAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. NW
ZONES TO INCLUDE EASTERN COLORADO AND SW NEBRASKA CURRENTLY SIT
UNDER WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS
THESE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE BRINGING MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE
SHOWING UP NOW UNDER RIDGE AXIS.

MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL PIVOT WIND REGIME TO MORE
NORTHERLY...ALBEIT WEAK. CAA WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
OCCURRENCE...ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. FOR
NOW...PLAN ON CONTINUING CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA. WORSE
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME ARE OVER MAINLY W/NW ZONES CLOSEST TO
RIDGE AXIS...BUT ALL AREAS SEEING FOG AND SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
THAT WILL IMPACT AREA ROADWAYS...ETC. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS -SW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA LATER. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
FORECAST NEEDS AUGMENTING BY NEXT ESTF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION CONTINUES TO SEE ADVERSE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED
INTO SW KANSAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. NW
ZONES TO INCLUDE EASTERN COLORADO AND SW NEBRASKA CURRENTLY SIT
UNDER WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS
THESE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE BRINGING MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE
SHOWING UP NOW UNDER RIDGE AXIS.

MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL PIVOT WIND REGIME TO MORE
NORTHERLY...ALBEIT WEAK. CAA WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
OCCURRENCE...ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. FOR
NOW...PLAN ON CONTINUING CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA. WORSE
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME ARE OVER MAINLY W/NW ZONES CLOSEST TO
RIDGE AXIS...BUT ALL AREAS SEEING FOG AND SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
THAT WILL IMPACT AREA ROADWAYS...ETC. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS -SW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA LATER. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
FORECAST NEEDS AUGMENTING BY NEXT ESTF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION CONTINUES TO SEE ADVERSE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED
INTO SW KANSAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. NW
ZONES TO INCLUDE EASTERN COLORADO AND SW NEBRASKA CURRENTLY SIT
UNDER WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS
THESE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE BRINGING MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE
SHOWING UP NOW UNDER RIDGE AXIS.

MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL PIVOT WIND REGIME TO MORE
NORTHERLY...ALBEIT WEAK. CAA WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
OCCURRENCE...ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. FOR
NOW...PLAN ON CONTINUING CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA. WORSE
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME ARE OVER MAINLY W/NW ZONES CLOSEST TO
RIDGE AXIS...BUT ALL AREAS SEEING FOG AND SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
THAT WILL IMPACT AREA ROADWAYS...ETC. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS -SW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA LATER. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
FORECAST NEEDS AUGMENTING BY NEXT ESTF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION CONTINUES TO SEE ADVERSE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS OF 00Z THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED
INTO SW KANSAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING OUT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. NW
ZONES TO INCLUDE EASTERN COLORADO AND SW NEBRASKA CURRENTLY SIT
UNDER WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS
THESE TWO FEATURES THAT ARE BRINGING MAINLY EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE
SHOWING UP NOW UNDER RIDGE AXIS.

MODELS DO SHOW SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL PIVOT WIND REGIME TO MORE
NORTHERLY...ALBEIT WEAK. CAA WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
OCCURRENCE...ALLOWING FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. FOR
NOW...PLAN ON CONTINUING CURRENT ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA. WORSE
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME ARE OVER MAINLY W/NW ZONES CLOSEST TO
RIDGE AXIS...BUT ALL AREAS SEEING FOG AND SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS
THAT WILL IMPACT AREA ROADWAYS...ETC. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS -SW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER AREA LATER. WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
FORECAST NEEDS AUGMENTING BY NEXT ESTF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 180002
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN IFR/LIFR ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
REDEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY WHEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME
FZDZ MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 19-21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  80  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 180002
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN IFR/LIFR ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
REDEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY WHEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME
FZDZ MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 19-21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  80  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 180002
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN IFR/LIFR ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
REDEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY WHEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME
FZDZ MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 19-21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  80  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 180002
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN IFR/LIFR ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PERIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
A WINTRY MIX WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
REDEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SPREADING
NORTH AND EAST AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY WHEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME
FZDZ MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 19-21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  80  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 172353
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
553 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  32  40  30  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  25  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172353
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
553 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  37  30  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  29  37  29  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  32  40  30  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  31  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  25  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  29  37  32  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KGLD 172338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 172338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL SEE PERSISTENT VLIFR CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
THURSDAY. EXPECTING VV002-004 FOR CEILINGS THRU 16Z...ALONG WITH
FREEZING FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM TO 1/2SM. SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL WORK INTO BOTH AREAS BY 05Z AS WINDS GO FROM MORE
EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE. AFT 16Z THURSDAY...IFR/MVFR MIX WITH
3-6SM IN FOG AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM OVC006 UP TO BKN-
OVC020-025. WINDS EASTERLY 5-10KTS BECM VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING WSW 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z-16Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 172331
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The forecast for tonight continues to be on track with little change
in expected snowfall amounts. Precipitation continued to develop
ahead of the lead shortwave moving across the Texas Panhandle across
much of Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Stronger second wave was
pivoting northeast and was located over eastern New Mexico. Moisture
will continue to spread northward this evening. High resolution
short term models spread the precipitation northeast into the
forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings show moistening of
the low levels this evening due to evaporative cooling with the
onset of precipitation. Soundings still show a brief window of sleet
with the onset of precipitation and have already had some isolated
ice pellets or light snow fall this afternoon. Cross sections show
deep layer frontogenesis along with some convective instability as
well as some CSI (convective symmetric instability) so it is still
likely that we will see some southwest to northeast oriented bands
develop with locally higher amounts. There also may be some isolated
thunder as well as a few lightning strikes. In general have tweaked
the snow amounts slightly upward from the prior forecast, but by
only a few tenths of an inch. Timing is just a little slower for the
onset of the precipitation, mainly for areas along the Nebraska
border and have delayed onset by a couple of hours. Strongest upward
vertical motion is expected across the forecast area from mid-late
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
trough rotates northeast. Expect the best snowfall rates during this
period, before tapering off. Also with there may be some freezing
drizzle mixing with the snow after 4 AM Thursday as soundings
briefly show some drying the in the dendritic ice crystal growth
region. Will see little diurnal temperature change tonight with lows
in the mid to upper 20s. No change to the winter weather advisory
for tonight across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough early Thursday...drying
will take place above 700mb with time...but remain fairly saturated
below. Therefore...although there may be some lingering very light
snow/flurries...the lack of cloud ice aloft and weak forcing in the
low levels will still favor some patchy freezing drizzle as
temperatures remain at or below freezing for much of the day. The
lift is weak and any additional accumulations of light snow or
freezing drizzle beyond 9 am should be very light. This scenario may
linger into Thursday night as well as the northern stream and the next
southern stream shortwaves approach and begin to phase...but any
precipitation should remain very light and patchy if at all. The
phasing of the two upper trough will focus precip to the south and
east of the county warning area into Friday so will keep Friday and
Friday night dry. Lowered highs through the 30s on Thursday and
Friday with the expected snowcover and overcast conditions.

May see some breaks in the clouds by Saturday...but expect to still
be dealing with some residual snow on the ground in some places...so
have limited highs to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warm advection
will increase across the area into Sunday ahead of the next
deepening trough over the northern plains. Will therefore warm highs
through the mid and upper 40s Sunday into Monday before the next
cold front Monday night lowers highs back into the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Will keep a chance for rain across mainly the eastern
portions of the cwa Sunday night into Monday in the warm
sector...then a chance for rain or snow Monday night and  Tuesday
with the colder air in the wake of the front.

Will go dry in the wake of the departing trough on Wednesday but
keep highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Kept TAF as previous but moved up heavier snow about an hour.
Conditions to IFR/LIFR by 04z. Snow should lighten and start to
break out tomorrow afternoon but expect cigs to remain low and
opted not to add a group at this time. Will also need to watch for
freezing drizzle switchover in the after sunrise hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-
026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-
054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 172331
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The forecast for tonight continues to be on track with little change
in expected snowfall amounts. Precipitation continued to develop
ahead of the lead shortwave moving across the Texas Panhandle across
much of Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Stronger second wave was
pivoting northeast and was located over eastern New Mexico. Moisture
will continue to spread northward this evening. High resolution
short term models spread the precipitation northeast into the
forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings show moistening of
the low levels this evening due to evaporative cooling with the
onset of precipitation. Soundings still show a brief window of sleet
with the onset of precipitation and have already had some isolated
ice pellets or light snow fall this afternoon. Cross sections show
deep layer frontogenesis along with some convective instability as
well as some CSI (convective symmetric instability) so it is still
likely that we will see some southwest to northeast oriented bands
develop with locally higher amounts. There also may be some isolated
thunder as well as a few lightning strikes. In general have tweaked
the snow amounts slightly upward from the prior forecast, but by
only a few tenths of an inch. Timing is just a little slower for the
onset of the precipitation, mainly for areas along the Nebraska
border and have delayed onset by a couple of hours. Strongest upward
vertical motion is expected across the forecast area from mid-late
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
trough rotates northeast. Expect the best snowfall rates during this
period, before tapering off. Also with there may be some freezing
drizzle mixing with the snow after 4 AM Thursday as soundings
briefly show some drying the in the dendritic ice crystal growth
region. Will see little diurnal temperature change tonight with lows
in the mid to upper 20s. No change to the winter weather advisory
for tonight across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough early Thursday...drying
will take place above 700mb with time...but remain fairly saturated
below. Therefore...although there may be some lingering very light
snow/flurries...the lack of cloud ice aloft and weak forcing in the
low levels will still favor some patchy freezing drizzle as
temperatures remain at or below freezing for much of the day. The
lift is weak and any additional accumulations of light snow or
freezing drizzle beyond 9 am should be very light. This scenario may
linger into Thursday night as well as the northern stream and the next
southern stream shortwaves approach and begin to phase...but any
precipitation should remain very light and patchy if at all. The
phasing of the two upper trough will focus precip to the south and
east of the county warning area into Friday so will keep Friday and
Friday night dry. Lowered highs through the 30s on Thursday and
Friday with the expected snowcover and overcast conditions.

May see some breaks in the clouds by Saturday...but expect to still
be dealing with some residual snow on the ground in some places...so
have limited highs to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warm advection
will increase across the area into Sunday ahead of the next
deepening trough over the northern plains. Will therefore warm highs
through the mid and upper 40s Sunday into Monday before the next
cold front Monday night lowers highs back into the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Will keep a chance for rain across mainly the eastern
portions of the cwa Sunday night into Monday in the warm
sector...then a chance for rain or snow Monday night and  Tuesday
with the colder air in the wake of the front.

Will go dry in the wake of the departing trough on Wednesday but
keep highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Kept TAF as previous but moved up heavier snow about an hour.
Conditions to IFR/LIFR by 04z. Snow should lighten and start to
break out tomorrow afternoon but expect cigs to remain low and
opted not to add a group at this time. Will also need to watch for
freezing drizzle switchover in the after sunrise hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-
026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-
054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 172331
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The forecast for tonight continues to be on track with little change
in expected snowfall amounts. Precipitation continued to develop
ahead of the lead shortwave moving across the Texas Panhandle across
much of Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Stronger second wave was
pivoting northeast and was located over eastern New Mexico. Moisture
will continue to spread northward this evening. High resolution
short term models spread the precipitation northeast into the
forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings show moistening of
the low levels this evening due to evaporative cooling with the
onset of precipitation. Soundings still show a brief window of sleet
with the onset of precipitation and have already had some isolated
ice pellets or light snow fall this afternoon. Cross sections show
deep layer frontogenesis along with some convective instability as
well as some CSI (convective symmetric instability) so it is still
likely that we will see some southwest to northeast oriented bands
develop with locally higher amounts. There also may be some isolated
thunder as well as a few lightning strikes. In general have tweaked
the snow amounts slightly upward from the prior forecast, but by
only a few tenths of an inch. Timing is just a little slower for the
onset of the precipitation, mainly for areas along the Nebraska
border and have delayed onset by a couple of hours. Strongest upward
vertical motion is expected across the forecast area from mid-late
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
trough rotates northeast. Expect the best snowfall rates during this
period, before tapering off. Also with there may be some freezing
drizzle mixing with the snow after 4 AM Thursday as soundings
briefly show some drying the in the dendritic ice crystal growth
region. Will see little diurnal temperature change tonight with lows
in the mid to upper 20s. No change to the winter weather advisory
for tonight across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough early Thursday...drying
will take place above 700mb with time...but remain fairly saturated
below. Therefore...although there may be some lingering very light
snow/flurries...the lack of cloud ice aloft and weak forcing in the
low levels will still favor some patchy freezing drizzle as
temperatures remain at or below freezing for much of the day. The
lift is weak and any additional accumulations of light snow or
freezing drizzle beyond 9 am should be very light. This scenario may
linger into Thursday night as well as the northern stream and the next
southern stream shortwaves approach and begin to phase...but any
precipitation should remain very light and patchy if at all. The
phasing of the two upper trough will focus precip to the south and
east of the county warning area into Friday so will keep Friday and
Friday night dry. Lowered highs through the 30s on Thursday and
Friday with the expected snowcover and overcast conditions.

May see some breaks in the clouds by Saturday...but expect to still
be dealing with some residual snow on the ground in some places...so
have limited highs to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warm advection
will increase across the area into Sunday ahead of the next
deepening trough over the northern plains. Will therefore warm highs
through the mid and upper 40s Sunday into Monday before the next
cold front Monday night lowers highs back into the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Will keep a chance for rain across mainly the eastern
portions of the cwa Sunday night into Monday in the warm
sector...then a chance for rain or snow Monday night and  Tuesday
with the colder air in the wake of the front.

Will go dry in the wake of the departing trough on Wednesday but
keep highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Kept TAF as previous but moved up heavier snow about an hour.
Conditions to IFR/LIFR by 04z. Snow should lighten and start to
break out tomorrow afternoon but expect cigs to remain low and
opted not to add a group at this time. Will also need to watch for
freezing drizzle switchover in the after sunrise hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-
026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-
054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 172331
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The forecast for tonight continues to be on track with little change
in expected snowfall amounts. Precipitation continued to develop
ahead of the lead shortwave moving across the Texas Panhandle across
much of Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Stronger second wave was
pivoting northeast and was located over eastern New Mexico. Moisture
will continue to spread northward this evening. High resolution
short term models spread the precipitation northeast into the
forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings show moistening of
the low levels this evening due to evaporative cooling with the
onset of precipitation. Soundings still show a brief window of sleet
with the onset of precipitation and have already had some isolated
ice pellets or light snow fall this afternoon. Cross sections show
deep layer frontogenesis along with some convective instability as
well as some CSI (convective symmetric instability) so it is still
likely that we will see some southwest to northeast oriented bands
develop with locally higher amounts. There also may be some isolated
thunder as well as a few lightning strikes. In general have tweaked
the snow amounts slightly upward from the prior forecast, but by
only a few tenths of an inch. Timing is just a little slower for the
onset of the precipitation, mainly for areas along the Nebraska
border and have delayed onset by a couple of hours. Strongest upward
vertical motion is expected across the forecast area from mid-late
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
trough rotates northeast. Expect the best snowfall rates during this
period, before tapering off. Also with there may be some freezing
drizzle mixing with the snow after 4 AM Thursday as soundings
briefly show some drying the in the dendritic ice crystal growth
region. Will see little diurnal temperature change tonight with lows
in the mid to upper 20s. No change to the winter weather advisory
for tonight across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough early Thursday...drying
will take place above 700mb with time...but remain fairly saturated
below. Therefore...although there may be some lingering very light
snow/flurries...the lack of cloud ice aloft and weak forcing in the
low levels will still favor some patchy freezing drizzle as
temperatures remain at or below freezing for much of the day. The
lift is weak and any additional accumulations of light snow or
freezing drizzle beyond 9 am should be very light. This scenario may
linger into Thursday night as well as the northern stream and the next
southern stream shortwaves approach and begin to phase...but any
precipitation should remain very light and patchy if at all. The
phasing of the two upper trough will focus precip to the south and
east of the county warning area into Friday so will keep Friday and
Friday night dry. Lowered highs through the 30s on Thursday and
Friday with the expected snowcover and overcast conditions.

May see some breaks in the clouds by Saturday...but expect to still
be dealing with some residual snow on the ground in some places...so
have limited highs to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warm advection
will increase across the area into Sunday ahead of the next
deepening trough over the northern plains. Will therefore warm highs
through the mid and upper 40s Sunday into Monday before the next
cold front Monday night lowers highs back into the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Will keep a chance for rain across mainly the eastern
portions of the cwa Sunday night into Monday in the warm
sector...then a chance for rain or snow Monday night and  Tuesday
with the colder air in the wake of the front.

Will go dry in the wake of the departing trough on Wednesday but
keep highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Kept TAF as previous but moved up heavier snow about an hour.
Conditions to IFR/LIFR by 04z. Snow should lighten and start to
break out tomorrow afternoon but expect cigs to remain low and
opted not to add a group at this time. Will also need to watch for
freezing drizzle switchover in the after sunrise hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-
026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-
054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KGLD 172213
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
313 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 172213
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
313 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD FROM EARLIER UPDATES OF THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF FREEZING FOG...STILL DENSE MAINLY FROM THOMAS AND LOGAN
COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES...AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA.

SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ROADS AND
SIDEWALKS HAVE BECOME SLICK BECAUSE OF ICE ACCUMULATION. ACCIDENTS
HAVE OCCURRED ON INTERSTATE 70 AND AT LEAST ONE SCHOOL WAS
DISMISSED EARLY. BASED ON REASONING ABOVE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MT/6 AM CT THURSDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MODELS MAY BE DRYING OUT NEAR SURFACE CONDITIONS
TOO FAST. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LACK
OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS. SO AT THIS TIME AM CONTINUE AREAS
OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. THE NIGHT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK IF ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED.

DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF WARMING ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
LAST MOST OF THE DAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MIXING
OR WIND TOMORROW AS WELL. SO TENDED TO GO MORE TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KICT 172153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TAF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WINTER STORM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ALREADY SEE THE INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS IN
CENTRAL KS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR-IFR CIGS NEAR KRSL/KSLN. WILL SEE THIS
TREND OF DECREASING CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY THIS
EVENING...AS LOW LAYERS SATURATE AND WINTRY PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL.

PRECIP TYPE MAY BE TRICKY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...AS LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF SN/FZDZ
THIS EVENING BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 05Z/THU. EXPECT
SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW.  CENTRAL KS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT
FORWARD WITH ALL SNOW WITH MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
DURING THE 05-11Z/THU TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  80  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 172153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TAF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WINTER STORM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ALREADY SEE THE INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS IN
CENTRAL KS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR-IFR CIGS NEAR KRSL/KSLN. WILL SEE THIS
TREND OF DECREASING CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY THIS
EVENING...AS LOW LAYERS SATURATE AND WINTRY PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL.

PRECIP TYPE MAY BE TRICKY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...AS LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF SN/FZDZ
THIS EVENING BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 05Z/THU. EXPECT
SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW.  CENTRAL KS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT
FORWARD WITH ALL SNOW WITH MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
DURING THE 05-11Z/THU TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  80  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 172153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TAF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WINTER STORM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ALREADY SEE THE INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS IN
CENTRAL KS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR-IFR CIGS NEAR KRSL/KSLN. WILL SEE THIS
TREND OF DECREASING CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY THIS
EVENING...AS LOW LAYERS SATURATE AND WINTRY PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL.

PRECIP TYPE MAY BE TRICKY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...AS LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF SN/FZDZ
THIS EVENING BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 05Z/THU. EXPECT
SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW.  CENTRAL KS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT
FORWARD WITH ALL SNOW WITH MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
DURING THE 05-11Z/THU TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  80  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 172153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AND SLEET
HAVE BEEN FALLING OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS SINCE ABOUT 2PM.
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND WILL KEEP SNOW A
BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST THREAT/CONCERN REMAINS THE WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
COOLER...MAKING SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIGGER CONCERN ACROSS THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...PRECIPITATION INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH THE
BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AS OF
3PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD...AND WITH
TEMPERATURES BARELY REACHING FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY
PRECIP TYPE OVER CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
MAIN AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE BOTTOM TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. EXPECT THE WINTRY MIX TO CEASE BY EVENING BECOMING ALL
SNOW. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FEEL CLOUD ICE WILL BE LOST AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN. BY MORNING MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST SNOW TOTALS ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS INTO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. SOME ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MORNING.

REGARDLESS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPE...ROADWAYS COULD BECOME
SLICK AND HAZARDOUS AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

TEMPS REMAIN COOL...BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR BY SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TOMORROW...AND IN
THE 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WHILE A COUPLE OF UPPER WAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA...THE NEXT ONE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REMAIN LIQUID.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY MONDAY AND COOLING
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TAF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WINTER STORM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ALREADY SEE THE INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS IN
CENTRAL KS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR-IFR CIGS NEAR KRSL/KSLN. WILL SEE THIS
TREND OF DECREASING CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY THIS
EVENING...AS LOW LAYERS SATURATE AND WINTRY PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL.

PRECIP TYPE MAY BE TRICKY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...AS LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF SN/FZDZ
THIS EVENING BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 05Z/THU. EXPECT
SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW.  CENTRAL KS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT
FORWARD WITH ALL SNOW WITH MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
DURING THE 05-11Z/THU TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  38  31  40 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      28  35  28  39 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          28  36  29  38 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        30  38  31  39 /  90  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  39  32  40 /  70  30  10  10
RUSSELL         25  34  25  39 /  80  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      27  34  26  40 /  80  30  10  10
SALINA          28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  35  28  38 /  80  40  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  41  34  41 /  80  30  20  10
CHANUTE         31  39  32  38 /  90  40  10  10
IOLA            31  38  31  38 /  80  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  40  33  40 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 172133
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The forecast for tonight continues to be on track with little change
in expected snowfall amounts. Precipitation continued to develop
ahead of the lead shortwave moving across the Texas Panhandle across
much of Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Stronger second wave was
pivoting northeast and was located over eastern New Mexico. Moisture
will continue to spread northward this evening. High resolution
short term models spread the precipitation northeast into the
forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings show moistening of
the low levels this evening due to evaporative cooling with the
onset of precipitation. Soundings still show a brief window of sleet
with the onset of precipitation and have already had some isolated
ice pellets or light snow fall this afternoon. Cross sections show
deep layer frontogenesis along with some convective instability as
well as some CSI (convective symmetric instability) so it is still
likely that we will see some southwest to northeast oriented bands
develop with locally higher amounts. There also may be some isolated
thunder as well as a few lightning strikes. In general have tweaked
the snow amounts slightly upward from the prior forecast, but by
only a few tenths of an inch. Timing is just a little slower for the
onset of the precipitation, mainly for areas along the Nebraska
border and have delayed onset by a couple of hours. Strongest upward
vertical motion is expected across the forecast area from mid-late
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
trough rotates northeast. Expect the best snowfall rates during this
period, before tapering off. Also with there may be some freezing
drizzle mixing with the snow after 4 AM Thursday as soundings
briefly show some drying the in the dendritic ice crystal growth
region. Will see little diurnal temperature change tonight with lows
in the mid to upper 20s. No change to the winter weather advisory
for tonight across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough early Thursday...drying
will take place above 700mb with time...but remain fairly saturated
below. Therefore...although there may be some lingering very light
snow/flurries...the lack of cloud ice aloft and weak forcing in the
low levels will still favor some patchy freezing drizzle as
temperatures remain at or below freezing for much of the day. The
lift is weak and any additional accumulations of light snow or
freezing drizzle beyond 9 am should be very light. This scenario may
linger into Thursday night as well as the northern stream and the next
southern stream shortwaves approach and begin to phase...but any
precipitation should remain very light and patchy if at all. The
phasing of the two upper trough will focus precip to the south and
east of the county warning area into Friday so will keep Friday and
Friday night dry. Lowered highs through the 30s on Thursday and
Friday with the expected snowcover and overcast conditions.

May see some breaks in the clouds by Saturday...but expect to still
be dealing with some residual snow on the ground in some places...so
have limited highs to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warm advection
will increase across the area into Sunday ahead of the next
deepening trough over the northern plains. Will therefore warm highs
through the mid and upper 40s Sunday into Monday before the next
cold front Monday night lowers highs back into the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Will keep a chance for rain across mainly the eastern
portions of the cwa Sunday night into Monday in the warm
sector...then a chance for rain or snow Monday night and  Tuesday
with the colder air in the wake of the front.

Will go dry in the wake of the departing trough on Wednesday but
keep highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Low level dry air will generally keep KTOP/KFOE vfr until aft
02z/18 when moisture and forcing will increase with lowering
mvfr ceilings and vsbys in light snow and fog. Confidence has
increased that lowest vsbys in snow should occur in the 05Z-09Z
timeframe and have lowered to 1 mile...but may briefly go lower
at times in moderate. Snow intensity decreases at all terminal
sites by 09z...but ceilings and vsbys will lifr/mvfr through the
remainder of the TAF forecast in very light snow/fog...although
brief fzdz cannot be ruled out as well.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-
026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-
054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 172133
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The forecast for tonight continues to be on track with little change
in expected snowfall amounts. Precipitation continued to develop
ahead of the lead shortwave moving across the Texas Panhandle across
much of Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Stronger second wave was
pivoting northeast and was located over eastern New Mexico. Moisture
will continue to spread northward this evening. High resolution
short term models spread the precipitation northeast into the
forecast area this evening. Forecast soundings show moistening of
the low levels this evening due to evaporative cooling with the
onset of precipitation. Soundings still show a brief window of sleet
with the onset of precipitation and have already had some isolated
ice pellets or light snow fall this afternoon. Cross sections show
deep layer frontogenesis along with some convective instability as
well as some CSI (convective symmetric instability) so it is still
likely that we will see some southwest to northeast oriented bands
develop with locally higher amounts. There also may be some isolated
thunder as well as a few lightning strikes. In general have tweaked
the snow amounts slightly upward from the prior forecast, but by
only a few tenths of an inch. Timing is just a little slower for the
onset of the precipitation, mainly for areas along the Nebraska
border and have delayed onset by a couple of hours. Strongest upward
vertical motion is expected across the forecast area from mid-late
evening into the early morning hours on Thursday as the shortwave
trough rotates northeast. Expect the best snowfall rates during this
period, before tapering off. Also with there may be some freezing
drizzle mixing with the snow after 4 AM Thursday as soundings
briefly show some drying the in the dendritic ice crystal growth
region. Will see little diurnal temperature change tonight with lows
in the mid to upper 20s. No change to the winter weather advisory
for tonight across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough early Thursday...drying
will take place above 700mb with time...but remain fairly saturated
below. Therefore...although there may be some lingering very light
snow/flurries...the lack of cloud ice aloft and weak forcing in the
low levels will still favor some patchy freezing drizzle as
temperatures remain at or below freezing for much of the day. The
lift is weak and any additional accumulations of light snow or
freezing drizzle beyond 9 am should be very light. This scenario may
linger into Thursday night as well as the northern stream and the next
southern stream shortwaves approach and begin to phase...but any
precipitation should remain very light and patchy if at all. The
phasing of the two upper trough will focus precip to the south and
east of the county warning area into Friday so will keep Friday and
Friday night dry. Lowered highs through the 30s on Thursday and
Friday with the expected snowcover and overcast conditions.

May see some breaks in the clouds by Saturday...but expect to still
be dealing with some residual snow on the ground in some places...so
have limited highs to the upper 30s to lower 40s. Warm advection
will increase across the area into Sunday ahead of the next
deepening trough over the northern plains. Will therefore warm highs
through the mid and upper 40s Sunday into Monday before the next
cold front Monday night lowers highs back into the upper 30s and
lower 40s. Will keep a chance for rain across mainly the eastern
portions of the cwa Sunday night into Monday in the warm
sector...then a chance for rain or snow Monday night and  Tuesday
with the colder air in the wake of the front.

Will go dry in the wake of the departing trough on Wednesday but
keep highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Low level dry air will generally keep KTOP/KFOE vfr until aft
02z/18 when moisture and forcing will increase with lowering
mvfr ceilings and vsbys in light snow and fog. Confidence has
increased that lowest vsbys in snow should occur in the 05Z-09Z
timeframe and have lowered to 1 mile...but may briefly go lower
at times in moderate. Snow intensity decreases at all terminal
sites by 09z...but ceilings and vsbys will lifr/mvfr through the
remainder of the TAF forecast in very light snow/fog...although
brief fzdz cannot be ruled out as well.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-
026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-
054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KDDC 172051
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014


FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  29  43 /  70  30   0   0
GCK  30  37  27  45 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  30  40  28  47 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  32  39  29  45 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  26  33  26  41 /  80  20   0   0
P28  32  37  30  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172051
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014


FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  29  43 /  70  30   0   0
GCK  30  37  27  45 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  30  40  28  47 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  32  39  29  45 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  26  33  26  41 /  80  20   0   0
P28  32  37  30  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172051
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014


FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  29  43 /  70  30   0   0
GCK  30  37  27  45 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  30  40  28  47 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  32  39  29  45 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  26  33  26  41 /  80  20   0   0
P28  32  37  30  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172051
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014


FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
SHOWER CHANCE MONDAY DUE TO SUFFICIENTIENT MOISTURE AND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT.

THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING, SUGGESTING STRATUS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS WELL AS MID LEVEL COLD POOL INSTABILITY CLOUDS ON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THESE MOIST LAYERS LOOK WELL
SEPARATED BY A DRY LAYER WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY PRECLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION WHICH MODELS ALSO REALLY DON`T SUPPORT. THE MAIN
WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL DIG FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT WAVE,
PLACING ALL THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, THE THERMAL FIELDS WILL UNDERGO
ONLY A SLIGHT MODERATION INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS. THE EC/GFS DEVELOPS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY AROUND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DEEP NORTHWEST DRY FLOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST WITH FAST MOVING COLD
FRONTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  29  43 /  70  30   0   0
GCK  30  37  27  45 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  30  40  28  47 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  32  39  29  45 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  26  33  26  41 /  80  20   0   0
P28  32  37  30  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KGLD 172047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE IN SOME
LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE COMBINED
WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG AND EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WIDE VARIETY OF EXPECTED WEATHER AND CONTINUED SLICK
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 172047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE IN SOME
LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE COMBINED
WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG AND EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WIDE VARIETY OF EXPECTED WEATHER AND CONTINUED SLICK
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 172047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE IN SOME
LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE COMBINED
WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG AND EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WIDE VARIETY OF EXPECTED WEATHER AND CONTINUED SLICK
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 172047
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 144 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE IN SOME
LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THE FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE COMBINED
WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG AND EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE WIDE VARIETY OF EXPECTED WEATHER AND CONTINUED SLICK
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 172034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 172034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 172034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 172034
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY...SATURDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL HAVE A COUPLE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN IT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND THE SECOND SLIGHTLY WEAKER ONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM REMAINS DRY. ALL
MODELS REMAIN DRY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY WESTERLY AND HAVE GONE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BECOMING WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW COVER OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO STILL BE AN ISSUE THAT WILL CREATE TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING IN THE GUIDANCE VALUES.

BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
WHILE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY.
THE PATTERNS SEEMS TO STALL HERE AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME A
LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL THROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE EASTERN
COLORADO BORDER ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT AS A VORTICITY MAX EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ON MONDAY...CURRENTLY EXPECT A MIX OF PRECIP
TYPES.

WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THIS INCREASE IN WIND...BUT MAY STILL BE UNDERDONE. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AS THAT TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 172007
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  32  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  30  37  31  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  30  40  32  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  33  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  27  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  32  37  34  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 172007
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  32  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  30  37  31  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  30  40  32  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  33  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  27  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  32  37  34  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 172007
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  32  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  30  37  31  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  30  40  32  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  33  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  27  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  32  37  34  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 172007
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF KANSAS AND THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
FOR CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES, A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, NOT TO
MENTION INCREASING LIFT. BASED ON THE NAM AND OTHER SHORT TERM MODEL
SOUNDINGS, LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
VERTICAL PROFILES PROJECTED TO BECOME MORE SATURATED EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, LOWER CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 00Z WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SWITCHOVER TO SNOW LIKELY DURING
THE LATER EVENING HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
BE. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
WARMER GROUND AND THE LIKELY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIP TYPE. STILL,
CONSERVATIVE QPF VALUES SUGGEST POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND
1 TO 2 INCHES TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHTLY LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS DOWN TO
RUSH CENTER...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PRATT AREA. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADVISORY HEADLINES BUT ONLY FOR A COUPLE OR SO COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING`S LOWS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) IN WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 30S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWESTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY REASONABLE SNOW
COVER IS PRESENT. THE MID TO UPPER 30S(F) ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  30  37  32  45 /  70  30  10  10
GCK  30  37  31  45 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  30  40  32  48 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  32  39  33  46 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  26  33  27  42 /  80  20  10  10
P28  32  37  34  42 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171753
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171753
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171753
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171753
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

HAD TO DO A MAJOR UPDATE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL MODEL
DATA...EVEN MESOSCALE...DOES NOT HAVE FRONT... NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS...AND FOG/STRATUS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THIS BRINGS IN A LOT OF
DOUBT FOR AN IMPROVING FOG/CLOUD COVER TREND...ESPECIALLY DOWN
SOUTH...THAT THE MESOSCALE OUTPUT IS SHOWING. WOULD SAY THE LATEST
NAM/ECMWF ARE CATCHING THE WIND FIELD THE BEST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOSCALE OUTPUT DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
FOG/DENSE FOG AREA AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE DENSE FOG EXPANDING...EXPANDED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TIME AND SPACE. WHEN/IF THE FOG BECOMES
LESS DENSE...FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY.

WFO LBF HAD CHATTED EARLIER THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING IN THEIR AREA AND CLOSE TO OURS. SATELLITE/88D ARE
SHOWING CLOUDS AND RETURNS MOVING OVER THE AREA. COMBINING THE
LATEST OBSERVATION DATA WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS NEAR OUR AREA...IT
LOOKS LIKE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND ADDED IT TO THE GRIDS. ALSO BASED ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND LATEST MODEL DATA...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL
THIS EVENING. THAT MAKES SENSE WITH WHAT THE SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING.
SO REMOVED THE SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

NOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES. EVEN IF THE STRATUS DOES CLEAR OUT...MAINLY
DOWN SOUTH...THICKER CLOUD COVER ABOVE THIS IS SPREADING OVER THE
AREA IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SO EXPECT LITTLE TO
NO SUN ACROSS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. SO REDUCED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND BEST PERFORMING
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KICT 171753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SE KS AT
THIS TIME.  SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH VERY LIGHT
GLAZING POSSIBLE.  SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.

THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR LOW LAYERS TO CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SW US BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE OF TEMPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
NUDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO GROW TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...ARRIVING INTO SRN KS BY AROUND
SUNSET.

LIFT AND THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE...AS CLOUD ICE MAY BE LACKING
INITIALLY FOR LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH TEMP COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO START AS LIGHT SNOW.  PLAN ON MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO THE
GRID/ZONE WORDING TO MENTION MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BUT GENERAL
FORECAST TREND LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK.

KETCHAM

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TAF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WINTER STORM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ALREADY SEE THE INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS IN
CENTRAL KS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR-IFR CIGS NEAR KRSL/KSLN. WILL SEE THIS
TREND OF DECREASING CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY THIS
EVENING...AS LOW LAYERS SATURATE AND WINTRY PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL.

PRECIP TYPE MAY BE TRICKY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...AS LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF SN/FZDZ
THIS EVENING BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 05Z/THU. EXPECT
SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW.  CENTRAL KS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT
FORWARD WITH ALL SNOW WITH MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
DURING THE 05-11Z/THU TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 171753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SE KS AT
THIS TIME.  SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH VERY LIGHT
GLAZING POSSIBLE.  SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.

THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR LOW LAYERS TO CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SW US BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE OF TEMPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
NUDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO GROW TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...ARRIVING INTO SRN KS BY AROUND
SUNSET.

LIFT AND THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE...AS CLOUD ICE MAY BE LACKING
INITIALLY FOR LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH TEMP COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO START AS LIGHT SNOW.  PLAN ON MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO THE
GRID/ZONE WORDING TO MENTION MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BUT GENERAL
FORECAST TREND LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK.

KETCHAM

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TAF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WINTER STORM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ALREADY SEE THE INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS IN
CENTRAL KS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR-IFR CIGS NEAR KRSL/KSLN. WILL SEE THIS
TREND OF DECREASING CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY THIS
EVENING...AS LOW LAYERS SATURATE AND WINTRY PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL.

PRECIP TYPE MAY BE TRICKY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...AS LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF SN/FZDZ
THIS EVENING BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 05Z/THU. EXPECT
SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW.  CENTRAL KS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT
FORWARD WITH ALL SNOW WITH MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
DURING THE 05-11Z/THU TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 171753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SE KS AT
THIS TIME.  SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH VERY LIGHT
GLAZING POSSIBLE.  SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.

THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR LOW LAYERS TO CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SW US BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE OF TEMPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
NUDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO GROW TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...ARRIVING INTO SRN KS BY AROUND
SUNSET.

LIFT AND THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE...AS CLOUD ICE MAY BE LACKING
INITIALLY FOR LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH TEMP COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO START AS LIGHT SNOW.  PLAN ON MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO THE
GRID/ZONE WORDING TO MENTION MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BUT GENERAL
FORECAST TREND LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK.

KETCHAM

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TAF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WINTER STORM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ALREADY SEE THE INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS IN
CENTRAL KS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR-IFR CIGS NEAR KRSL/KSLN. WILL SEE THIS
TREND OF DECREASING CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY THIS
EVENING...AS LOW LAYERS SATURATE AND WINTRY PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL.

PRECIP TYPE MAY BE TRICKY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...AS LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF SN/FZDZ
THIS EVENING BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 05Z/THU. EXPECT
SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW.  CENTRAL KS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT
FORWARD WITH ALL SNOW WITH MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
DURING THE 05-11Z/THU TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 171753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SE KS AT
THIS TIME.  SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH VERY LIGHT
GLAZING POSSIBLE.  SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.

THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR LOW LAYERS TO CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SW US BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE OF TEMPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
NUDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO GROW TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...ARRIVING INTO SRN KS BY AROUND
SUNSET.

LIFT AND THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE...AS CLOUD ICE MAY BE LACKING
INITIALLY FOR LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH TEMP COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO START AS LIGHT SNOW.  PLAN ON MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO THE
GRID/ZONE WORDING TO MENTION MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BUT GENERAL
FORECAST TREND LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK.

KETCHAM

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TAF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A WINTER STORM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  ALREADY SEE THE INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS IN
CENTRAL KS WITH SCT-BKN MVFR-IFR CIGS NEAR KRSL/KSLN. WILL SEE THIS
TREND OF DECREASING CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.  THINK MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE IFR CIGS BY THIS
EVENING...AS LOW LAYERS SATURATE AND WINTRY PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL.

PRECIP TYPE MAY BE TRICKY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...AS LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF SN/FZDZ
THIS EVENING BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 05Z/THU. EXPECT
SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH THE SNOW.  CENTRAL KS WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT
FORWARD WITH ALL SNOW WITH MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
DURING THE 05-11Z/THU TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 171745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern in the forecast package is the wintry precipitation
expected later today and tonight for northeast Kansas. The main
upper trough axis arriving this evening was currently rotating
across southern AZ as seen on water vapor imagery. Additional
areas of vorticity maxima were lifting north and east from western
TX while a much weaker wave was shifting east through southern NE.
Bands of weak reflectivity have since developed across the CWA and
are quickly evaporating within the dry airmass at the surface. Low
to middle 20s are common for lows with the patchy low level
stratus in place.

Surface high pressure this morning quickly lifts northward as the
storm system begins to lift northeast towards the CWA. Mid level
moisture increases through the day, as stratus returns by early
afternoon. Highs were lowered a few degrees to the lower 30s as
short term guidance hints at a thicker mid level cloud deck with
the lead trough arriving as early as late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The first stronger short wave trough energy is expected to work
into east central KS by mid afternoon with enhanced Q-Vector
convergence and pressure advection on the 1.5 PVU surface. Still
expect quite a bit of dry air in the mid levels at this time, but
several models including GFS/ECMWF/NMM/ARW/RAP/HRRR indicate that
partial to full saturation will occur between 3 and 6 PM in east
central KS. This seems reasonable given presence of instability
which can result in showery precipitation even in the presence of
dry air. This early precip will fall through a weak warm layer
before wet bulbing cools temps aloft, so have included sleet or
snow in the afternoon forecast. The focus of this early lift
remains south of I-70 so the forecast is initially slow in
bringing precip north.

Expect precipitation to become more widespread through the evening
hours with deep moisture advection expected and continuous weak to
moderate vertical motion throughout the troposphere. Broad lift
supported by jet divergence aloft, broad height falls, a
continuous train of weak embedded short wave energy, and broad
isentropic upslope flow in the lower troposphere. Expect mesoscale
or smaller enhancements to be provided by convective and slantwise
instability and multiple bands of frontogenesis expected to
develop from SW to NE across the forecast area. Any early sleet
potential should quickly translate to all snow as saturation cools
the initially warm layers. The peak of the event can be expected
between about 9 PM and 4 AM. Snow will then gradually decrease and
some drier air is likely to move in aloft in the snow growth
temperature zone. While vertical motion will be waning by sunrise,
still see enough to support some drizzle potential. Temperatures
will likely be below freezing during the morning so could have
very minor freezing drizzle accumulation. This potential looks to
decrease through the afternoon and vertical motion all but
disappears by the evening so only kept drizzle near/south of I-35
after 6 PM.

Accumulations: The convective and slantwise instability, along
with the initial dry air presence and sleet potential make this a
difficult accumulation forecast. Current expectations are for only
very light sleet accumulation at the onset of precip. Then, as
snow increases, expect widespread amounts of 1 inch or more but
with bands of snow approaching 4 inches where that enhanced lift
can persist for any decent duration. If frontogenesis bands can
interact with this instability as well, then could see a couple
locations flirt slightly higher amounts. But again, this is
uncertain and identifying the location of snow bands is impossible
at this time. They may also be quite narrow with several inch
variations across areas as small as a county.

The rest of the forecast is rather benign. See a gradual warm-up
by the weekend. A deepening short wave trough will move into the
region by late Sunday, but may not get organized enough or have
access to enough moisture to produce much precipitation until it
gets east of the local forecast area. Do expect cooler conditions
as the wave passes, and a second piece of upper energy early next
week could keep at least some potential for light precipitation in
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Low level dry air will generally keep KTOP/KFOE vfr until aft
02z/18 when moisture and forcing will increase with lowering
mvfr ceilings and vsbys in light snow and fog. Confidence has
increased that lowest vsbys in snow should occur in the 05Z-09Z
timeframe and have lowered to 1 mile...but may briefly go lower
at times in moderate. Snow intensity decreases at all terminal
sites by 09z...but ceilings and vsbys will lifr/mvfr through the
remainder of the TAF forecast in very light snow/fog...although
brief fzdz cannot be ruled out as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 171745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern in the forecast package is the wintry precipitation
expected later today and tonight for northeast Kansas. The main
upper trough axis arriving this evening was currently rotating
across southern AZ as seen on water vapor imagery. Additional
areas of vorticity maxima were lifting north and east from western
TX while a much weaker wave was shifting east through southern NE.
Bands of weak reflectivity have since developed across the CWA and
are quickly evaporating within the dry airmass at the surface. Low
to middle 20s are common for lows with the patchy low level
stratus in place.

Surface high pressure this morning quickly lifts northward as the
storm system begins to lift northeast towards the CWA. Mid level
moisture increases through the day, as stratus returns by early
afternoon. Highs were lowered a few degrees to the lower 30s as
short term guidance hints at a thicker mid level cloud deck with
the lead trough arriving as early as late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The first stronger short wave trough energy is expected to work
into east central KS by mid afternoon with enhanced Q-Vector
convergence and pressure advection on the 1.5 PVU surface. Still
expect quite a bit of dry air in the mid levels at this time, but
several models including GFS/ECMWF/NMM/ARW/RAP/HRRR indicate that
partial to full saturation will occur between 3 and 6 PM in east
central KS. This seems reasonable given presence of instability
which can result in showery precipitation even in the presence of
dry air. This early precip will fall through a weak warm layer
before wet bulbing cools temps aloft, so have included sleet or
snow in the afternoon forecast. The focus of this early lift
remains south of I-70 so the forecast is initially slow in
bringing precip north.

Expect precipitation to become more widespread through the evening
hours with deep moisture advection expected and continuous weak to
moderate vertical motion throughout the troposphere. Broad lift
supported by jet divergence aloft, broad height falls, a
continuous train of weak embedded short wave energy, and broad
isentropic upslope flow in the lower troposphere. Expect mesoscale
or smaller enhancements to be provided by convective and slantwise
instability and multiple bands of frontogenesis expected to
develop from SW to NE across the forecast area. Any early sleet
potential should quickly translate to all snow as saturation cools
the initially warm layers. The peak of the event can be expected
between about 9 PM and 4 AM. Snow will then gradually decrease and
some drier air is likely to move in aloft in the snow growth
temperature zone. While vertical motion will be waning by sunrise,
still see enough to support some drizzle potential. Temperatures
will likely be below freezing during the morning so could have
very minor freezing drizzle accumulation. This potential looks to
decrease through the afternoon and vertical motion all but
disappears by the evening so only kept drizzle near/south of I-35
after 6 PM.

Accumulations: The convective and slantwise instability, along
with the initial dry air presence and sleet potential make this a
difficult accumulation forecast. Current expectations are for only
very light sleet accumulation at the onset of precip. Then, as
snow increases, expect widespread amounts of 1 inch or more but
with bands of snow approaching 4 inches where that enhanced lift
can persist for any decent duration. If frontogenesis bands can
interact with this instability as well, then could see a couple
locations flirt slightly higher amounts. But again, this is
uncertain and identifying the location of snow bands is impossible
at this time. They may also be quite narrow with several inch
variations across areas as small as a county.

The rest of the forecast is rather benign. See a gradual warm-up
by the weekend. A deepening short wave trough will move into the
region by late Sunday, but may not get organized enough or have
access to enough moisture to produce much precipitation until it
gets east of the local forecast area. Do expect cooler conditions
as the wave passes, and a second piece of upper energy early next
week could keep at least some potential for light precipitation in
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Low level dry air will generally keep KTOP/KFOE vfr until aft
02z/18 when moisture and forcing will increase with lowering
mvfr ceilings and vsbys in light snow and fog. Confidence has
increased that lowest vsbys in snow should occur in the 05Z-09Z
timeframe and have lowered to 1 mile...but may briefly go lower
at times in moderate. Snow intensity decreases at all terminal
sites by 09z...but ceilings and vsbys will lifr/mvfr through the
remainder of the TAF forecast in very light snow/fog...although
brief fzdz cannot be ruled out as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 171745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern in the forecast package is the wintry precipitation
expected later today and tonight for northeast Kansas. The main
upper trough axis arriving this evening was currently rotating
across southern AZ as seen on water vapor imagery. Additional
areas of vorticity maxima were lifting north and east from western
TX while a much weaker wave was shifting east through southern NE.
Bands of weak reflectivity have since developed across the CWA and
are quickly evaporating within the dry airmass at the surface. Low
to middle 20s are common for lows with the patchy low level
stratus in place.

Surface high pressure this morning quickly lifts northward as the
storm system begins to lift northeast towards the CWA. Mid level
moisture increases through the day, as stratus returns by early
afternoon. Highs were lowered a few degrees to the lower 30s as
short term guidance hints at a thicker mid level cloud deck with
the lead trough arriving as early as late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The first stronger short wave trough energy is expected to work
into east central KS by mid afternoon with enhanced Q-Vector
convergence and pressure advection on the 1.5 PVU surface. Still
expect quite a bit of dry air in the mid levels at this time, but
several models including GFS/ECMWF/NMM/ARW/RAP/HRRR indicate that
partial to full saturation will occur between 3 and 6 PM in east
central KS. This seems reasonable given presence of instability
which can result in showery precipitation even in the presence of
dry air. This early precip will fall through a weak warm layer
before wet bulbing cools temps aloft, so have included sleet or
snow in the afternoon forecast. The focus of this early lift
remains south of I-70 so the forecast is initially slow in
bringing precip north.

Expect precipitation to become more widespread through the evening
hours with deep moisture advection expected and continuous weak to
moderate vertical motion throughout the troposphere. Broad lift
supported by jet divergence aloft, broad height falls, a
continuous train of weak embedded short wave energy, and broad
isentropic upslope flow in the lower troposphere. Expect mesoscale
or smaller enhancements to be provided by convective and slantwise
instability and multiple bands of frontogenesis expected to
develop from SW to NE across the forecast area. Any early sleet
potential should quickly translate to all snow as saturation cools
the initially warm layers. The peak of the event can be expected
between about 9 PM and 4 AM. Snow will then gradually decrease and
some drier air is likely to move in aloft in the snow growth
temperature zone. While vertical motion will be waning by sunrise,
still see enough to support some drizzle potential. Temperatures
will likely be below freezing during the morning so could have
very minor freezing drizzle accumulation. This potential looks to
decrease through the afternoon and vertical motion all but
disappears by the evening so only kept drizzle near/south of I-35
after 6 PM.

Accumulations: The convective and slantwise instability, along
with the initial dry air presence and sleet potential make this a
difficult accumulation forecast. Current expectations are for only
very light sleet accumulation at the onset of precip. Then, as
snow increases, expect widespread amounts of 1 inch or more but
with bands of snow approaching 4 inches where that enhanced lift
can persist for any decent duration. If frontogenesis bands can
interact with this instability as well, then could see a couple
locations flirt slightly higher amounts. But again, this is
uncertain and identifying the location of snow bands is impossible
at this time. They may also be quite narrow with several inch
variations across areas as small as a county.

The rest of the forecast is rather benign. See a gradual warm-up
by the weekend. A deepening short wave trough will move into the
region by late Sunday, but may not get organized enough or have
access to enough moisture to produce much precipitation until it
gets east of the local forecast area. Do expect cooler conditions
as the wave passes, and a second piece of upper energy early next
week could keep at least some potential for light precipitation in
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Low level dry air will generally keep KTOP/KFOE vfr until aft
02z/18 when moisture and forcing will increase with lowering
mvfr ceilings and vsbys in light snow and fog. Confidence has
increased that lowest vsbys in snow should occur in the 05Z-09Z
timeframe and have lowered to 1 mile...but may briefly go lower
at times in moderate. Snow intensity decreases at all terminal
sites by 09z...but ceilings and vsbys will lifr/mvfr through the
remainder of the TAF forecast in very light snow/fog...although
brief fzdz cannot be ruled out as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 171745
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern in the forecast package is the wintry precipitation
expected later today and tonight for northeast Kansas. The main
upper trough axis arriving this evening was currently rotating
across southern AZ as seen on water vapor imagery. Additional
areas of vorticity maxima were lifting north and east from western
TX while a much weaker wave was shifting east through southern NE.
Bands of weak reflectivity have since developed across the CWA and
are quickly evaporating within the dry airmass at the surface. Low
to middle 20s are common for lows with the patchy low level
stratus in place.

Surface high pressure this morning quickly lifts northward as the
storm system begins to lift northeast towards the CWA. Mid level
moisture increases through the day, as stratus returns by early
afternoon. Highs were lowered a few degrees to the lower 30s as
short term guidance hints at a thicker mid level cloud deck with
the lead trough arriving as early as late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The first stronger short wave trough energy is expected to work
into east central KS by mid afternoon with enhanced Q-Vector
convergence and pressure advection on the 1.5 PVU surface. Still
expect quite a bit of dry air in the mid levels at this time, but
several models including GFS/ECMWF/NMM/ARW/RAP/HRRR indicate that
partial to full saturation will occur between 3 and 6 PM in east
central KS. This seems reasonable given presence of instability
which can result in showery precipitation even in the presence of
dry air. This early precip will fall through a weak warm layer
before wet bulbing cools temps aloft, so have included sleet or
snow in the afternoon forecast. The focus of this early lift
remains south of I-70 so the forecast is initially slow in
bringing precip north.

Expect precipitation to become more widespread through the evening
hours with deep moisture advection expected and continuous weak to
moderate vertical motion throughout the troposphere. Broad lift
supported by jet divergence aloft, broad height falls, a
continuous train of weak embedded short wave energy, and broad
isentropic upslope flow in the lower troposphere. Expect mesoscale
or smaller enhancements to be provided by convective and slantwise
instability and multiple bands of frontogenesis expected to
develop from SW to NE across the forecast area. Any early sleet
potential should quickly translate to all snow as saturation cools
the initially warm layers. The peak of the event can be expected
between about 9 PM and 4 AM. Snow will then gradually decrease and
some drier air is likely to move in aloft in the snow growth
temperature zone. While vertical motion will be waning by sunrise,
still see enough to support some drizzle potential. Temperatures
will likely be below freezing during the morning so could have
very minor freezing drizzle accumulation. This potential looks to
decrease through the afternoon and vertical motion all but
disappears by the evening so only kept drizzle near/south of I-35
after 6 PM.

Accumulations: The convective and slantwise instability, along
with the initial dry air presence and sleet potential make this a
difficult accumulation forecast. Current expectations are for only
very light sleet accumulation at the onset of precip. Then, as
snow increases, expect widespread amounts of 1 inch or more but
with bands of snow approaching 4 inches where that enhanced lift
can persist for any decent duration. If frontogenesis bands can
interact with this instability as well, then could see a couple
locations flirt slightly higher amounts. But again, this is
uncertain and identifying the location of snow bands is impossible
at this time. They may also be quite narrow with several inch
variations across areas as small as a county.

The rest of the forecast is rather benign. See a gradual warm-up
by the weekend. A deepening short wave trough will move into the
region by late Sunday, but may not get organized enough or have
access to enough moisture to produce much precipitation until it
gets east of the local forecast area. Do expect cooler conditions
as the wave passes, and a second piece of upper energy early next
week could keep at least some potential for light precipitation in
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Low level dry air will generally keep KTOP/KFOE vfr until aft
02z/18 when moisture and forcing will increase with lowering
mvfr ceilings and vsbys in light snow and fog. Confidence has
increased that lowest vsbys in snow should occur in the 05Z-09Z
timeframe and have lowered to 1 mile...but may briefly go lower
at times in moderate. Snow intensity decreases at all terminal
sites by 09z...but ceilings and vsbys will lifr/mvfr through the
remainder of the TAF forecast in very light snow/fog...although
brief fzdz cannot be ruled out as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KGLD 171733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

FOG/STRATUS PLAGUE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW AND POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. FELT MOST
CONFIDENT IN PRECIP AT KGLD. KMCK MAY BE ON A SHARP PRECIP
BOUNDARY SO FOR NOW...PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
OVERALL...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW. SMALL WINDOW FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS/VIS
TANK AGAIN. AS THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXITS TOMORROW
MORNING...FEEL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST /2 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1106 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO CREATE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  30  37  32 /  20  70  30   0
GCK  44  30  37  31 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  50  30  40  32 /  20  40  10   0
LBL  47  32  39  33 /  20  40  20   0
HYS  35  26  33  27 /  20  80  20   0
P28  38  30  37  34 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1106 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO CREATE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AS
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE IFR CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT. EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  30  37  32 /  20  70  30   0
GCK  44  30  37  31 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  50  30  40  32 /  20  40  10   0
LBL  47  32  39  33 /  20  40  20   0
HYS  35  26  33  27 /  20  80  20   0
P28  38  30  37  34 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KICT 171629
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SE KS AT
THIS TIME.  SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH VERY LIGHT
GLAZING POSSIBLE.  SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.

THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR LOW LAYERS TO CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SW US BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE OF TEMPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
NUDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO GROW TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...ARRIVING INTO SRN KS BY AROUND
SUNSET.

LIFT AND THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE...AS CLOUD ICE MAY BE LACKING
INITIALLY FOR LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH TEMP COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO START AS LIGHT SNOW.  PLAN ON MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO THE
GRID/ZONE WORDING TO MENTION MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BUT GENERAL
FORECAST TREND LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK.

KETCHAM

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SITUATION ACRS CNTRL KS IS PRECARIOUS RIGHT OUT OF THE BLOCKS
WITH KRSL & KSLN RIGHT ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF 700-1300FT CIGS.
KRSL QUICKLY WENT FROM VFR TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER ISSUANCE. KSLN
IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIGS
SLOWLY LIFTING TO LOW-END MVFR CAT ~15Z OVER BOTH TERMINALS BUT
THIS TOO WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SITUATIONS ACROSS SC
& SE KS DETERIORATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LWR-DECK
OVERRUNNING HITS WITH A VENGEANCE. ANTICIPATE ALL TERMINALS TO BE
IN IFR CIG STATUS BY 03Z AS -SN SPREADS ACRS THE REGION. ALL AREAS
WL BE IN IFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 171629
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SE KS AT
THIS TIME.  SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH VERY LIGHT
GLAZING POSSIBLE.  SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.

THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR LOW LAYERS TO CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SW US BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE OF TEMPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
NUDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO GROW TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...ARRIVING INTO SRN KS BY AROUND
SUNSET.

LIFT AND THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE...AS CLOUD ICE MAY BE LACKING
INITIALLY FOR LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH TEMP COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO START AS LIGHT SNOW.  PLAN ON MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO THE
GRID/ZONE WORDING TO MENTION MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BUT GENERAL
FORECAST TREND LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK.

KETCHAM

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SITUATION ACRS CNTRL KS IS PRECARIOUS RIGHT OUT OF THE BLOCKS
WITH KRSL & KSLN RIGHT ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF 700-1300FT CIGS.
KRSL QUICKLY WENT FROM VFR TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER ISSUANCE. KSLN
IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIGS
SLOWLY LIFTING TO LOW-END MVFR CAT ~15Z OVER BOTH TERMINALS BUT
THIS TOO WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SITUATIONS ACROSS SC
& SE KS DETERIORATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LWR-DECK
OVERRUNNING HITS WITH A VENGEANCE. ANTICIPATE ALL TERMINALS TO BE
IN IFR CIG STATUS BY 03Z AS -SN SPREADS ACRS THE REGION. ALL AREAS
WL BE IN IFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 171629
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SE KS AT
THIS TIME.  SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH VERY LIGHT
GLAZING POSSIBLE.  SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.

THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR LOW LAYERS TO CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SW US BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE OF TEMPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
NUDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO GROW TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...ARRIVING INTO SRN KS BY AROUND
SUNSET.

LIFT AND THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE...AS CLOUD ICE MAY BE LACKING
INITIALLY FOR LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH TEMP COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO START AS LIGHT SNOW.  PLAN ON MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO THE
GRID/ZONE WORDING TO MENTION MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BUT GENERAL
FORECAST TREND LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK.

KETCHAM

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SITUATION ACRS CNTRL KS IS PRECARIOUS RIGHT OUT OF THE BLOCKS
WITH KRSL & KSLN RIGHT ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF 700-1300FT CIGS.
KRSL QUICKLY WENT FROM VFR TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER ISSUANCE. KSLN
IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIGS
SLOWLY LIFTING TO LOW-END MVFR CAT ~15Z OVER BOTH TERMINALS BUT
THIS TOO WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SITUATIONS ACROSS SC
& SE KS DETERIORATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LWR-DECK
OVERRUNNING HITS WITH A VENGEANCE. ANTICIPATE ALL TERMINALS TO BE
IN IFR CIG STATUS BY 03Z AS -SN SPREADS ACRS THE REGION. ALL AREAS
WL BE IN IFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 171629
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

INITIAL WAVE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SE KS AT
THIS TIME.  SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH VERY LIGHT
GLAZING POSSIBLE.  SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE.

THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND WILL BE FOR LOW LAYERS TO CONTINUE TO
SATURATE AS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE SW US BEGINS TO PULL INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE OF TEMPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
NUDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  ALREADY
SEEING SIGNS OF PRECIP INCREASING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF
THIS MAIN SHORTWAVE AND EXPECT THIS AREA OF PRECIP TO GROW TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUES
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM INCREASES...ARRIVING INTO SRN KS BY AROUND
SUNSET.

LIFT AND THETA-E GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS TIME FRAME TO BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS WHERE A WINTRY MIX MAY BE POSSIBLE...AS CLOUD ICE MAY BE LACKING
INITIALLY FOR LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE.  FURTHER TO THE NORTH TEMP COLUMN LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO START AS LIGHT SNOW.  PLAN ON MAKING SOME TWEAKS TO THE
GRID/ZONE WORDING TO MENTION MORE OF A WINTRY MIX BUT GENERAL
FORECAST TREND LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS
ON TRACK.

KETCHAM

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SITUATION ACRS CNTRL KS IS PRECARIOUS RIGHT OUT OF THE BLOCKS
WITH KRSL & KSLN RIGHT ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF 700-1300FT CIGS.
KRSL QUICKLY WENT FROM VFR TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER ISSUANCE. KSLN
IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIGS
SLOWLY LIFTING TO LOW-END MVFR CAT ~15Z OVER BOTH TERMINALS BUT
THIS TOO WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SITUATIONS ACROSS SC
& SE KS DETERIORATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LWR-DECK
OVERRUNNING HITS WITH A VENGEANCE. ANTICIPATE ALL TERMINALS TO BE
IN IFR CIG STATUS BY 03Z AS -SN SPREADS ACRS THE REGION. ALL AREAS
WL BE IN IFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171507
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
907 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SETTING UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPING TO CREATE AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT
WHERE IFR CIGS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  20  70  30   0
GCK  43  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  20  30  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  20  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171457
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
757 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171457
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
757 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171457
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
757 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171457
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
757 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING DENSE FOG IN AN AREA
FROM CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES EASTWARD TO SHERIDAN AND
GOVE COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW HAVE IT THROUGH 18Z. SOME MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IT CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN COLORADO. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED THEN.

ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING. COULD HAVE A BIG RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL BE LOOKING INTO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
AS WELL BY LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ013>015-027>029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KICT 171340
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SITUATION ACRS CNTRL KS IS PRECARIOUS RIGHT OUT OF THE BLOCKS
WITH KRSL & KSLN RIGHT ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF 700-1300FT CIGS.
KRSL QUICKLY WENT FROM VFR TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER ISSUANCE. KSLN
IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIGS
SLOWLY LIFTING TO LOW-END MVFR CAT ~15Z OVER BOTH TERMINALS BUT
THIS TOO WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SITUATIONS ACROSS SC
& SE KS DETERIORATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LWR-DECK
OVERRUNNING HITS WITH A VENGEANCE. ANTICIPATE ALL TERMINALS TO BE
IN IFR CIG STATUS BY 03Z AS -SN SPREADS ACRS THE REGION. ALL AREAS
WL BE IN IFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 171340
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK IS
ENCROACHING UPON THE KS BORDER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 30F WHICH WOULD OF
COURSE TRANSLATE INTO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. COVERAGE IS LIMITED SO
HAVE ASSIGNED 15-20% CHANCES TO EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS FOR THIS
MORNING WHERE VERY LITTLE GLAZING SHOULD RESULT. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT INTACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SITUATION ACRS CNTRL KS IS PRECARIOUS RIGHT OUT OF THE BLOCKS
WITH KRSL & KSLN RIGHT ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF 700-1300FT CIGS.
KRSL QUICKLY WENT FROM VFR TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER ISSUANCE. KSLN
IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIGS
SLOWLY LIFTING TO LOW-END MVFR CAT ~15Z OVER BOTH TERMINALS BUT
THIS TOO WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SITUATIONS ACROSS SC
& SE KS DETERIORATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LWR-DECK
OVERRUNNING HITS WITH A VENGEANCE. ANTICIPATE ALL TERMINALS TO BE
IN IFR CIG STATUS BY 03Z AS -SN SPREADS ACRS THE REGION. ALL AREAS
WL BE IN IFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  50  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  40  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  50  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  50  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  40  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 171207
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SITUATION ACRS CNTRL KS IS PRECARIOUS RIGHT OUT OF THE BLOCKS
WITH KRSL & KSLN RIGHT ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF 700-1300FT CIGS.
KRSL QUICKLY WENT FROM VFR TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER ISSUANCE. KSLN
IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIGS
SLOWLY LIFTING TO LOW-END MVFR CAT ~15Z OVER BOTH TERMINALS BUT
THIS TOO WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SITUATIONS ACROSS SC
& SE KS DETERIORATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LWR-DECK
OVERRUNNING HITS WITH A VENGEANCE. ANTICIPATE ALL TERMINALS TO BE
IN IFR CIG STATUS BY 03Z AS -SN SPREADS ACRS THE REGION. ALL AREAS
WL BE IN IFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  40  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  30  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  30  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  40  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  30  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 171207
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SITUATION ACRS CNTRL KS IS PRECARIOUS RIGHT OUT OF THE BLOCKS
WITH KRSL & KSLN RIGHT ON THE SRN PERIMETER OF 700-1300FT CIGS.
KRSL QUICKLY WENT FROM VFR TO IFR IMMEDIATELY AFTER ISSUANCE. KSLN
IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT CIGS
SLOWLY LIFTING TO LOW-END MVFR CAT ~15Z OVER BOTH TERMINALS BUT
THIS TOO WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE SITUATIONS ACROSS SC
& SE KS DETERIORATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS LWR-DECK
OVERRUNNING HITS WITH A VENGEANCE. ANTICIPATE ALL TERMINALS TO BE
IN IFR CIG STATUS BY 03Z AS -SN SPREADS ACRS THE REGION. ALL AREAS
WL BE IN IFR STATUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  40  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  30  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  30  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  40  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  30  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 171148
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern in the forecast package is the wintry precipitation
expected later today and tonight for northeast Kansas. The main
upper trough axis arriving this evening was currently rotating
across southern AZ as seen on water vapor imagery. Additional
areas of vorticity maxima were lifting north and east from western
TX while a much weaker wave was shifting east through southern NE.
Bands of weak reflectivity have since developed across the CWA and
are quickly evaporating within the dry airmass at the surface. Low
to middle 20s are common for lows with the patchy low level
stratus in place.

Surface high pressure this morning quickly lifts northward as the
storm system begins to lift northeast towards the CWA. Mid level
moisture increases through the day, as stratus returns by early
afternoon. Highs were lowered a few degrees to the lower 30s as
short term guidance hints at a thicker mid level cloud deck with
the lead trough arriving as early as late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

The first stronger short wave trough energy is expected to work
into east central KS by mid afternoon with enhanced Q-Vector
convergence and pressure advection on the 1.5 PVU surface. Still
expect quite a bit of dry air in the mid levels at this time, but
several models including GFS/ECMWF/NMM/ARW/RAP/HRRR indicate that
partial to full saturation will occur between 3 and 6 PM in east
central KS. This seems reasonable given presence of instability
which can result in showery precipitation even in the presence of
dry air. This early precip will fall through a weak warm layer
before wet bulbing cools temps aloft, so have included sleet or
snow in the afternoon forecast. The focus of this early lift
remains south of I-70 so the forecast is initially slow in
bringing precip north.

Expect precipitation to become more widespread through the evening
hours with deep moisture advection expected and continuous weak to
moderate vertical motion throughout the troposphere. Broad lift
supported by jet divergence aloft, broad height falls, a
continuous train of weak embedded short wave energy, and broad
isentropic upslope flow in the lower troposphere. Expect mesoscale
or smaller enhancements to be provided by convective and slantwise
instability and multiple bands of frontogenesis expected to
develop from SW to NE across the forecast area. Any early sleet
potential should quickly translate to all snow as saturation cools
the initially warm layers. The peak of the event can be expected
between about 9 PM and 4 AM. Snow will then gradually decrease and
some drier air is likely to move in aloft in the snow growth
temperature zone. While vertical motion will be waning by sunrise,
still see enough to support some drizzle potential. Temperatures
will likely be below freezing during the morning so could have
very minor freezing drizzle accumulation. This potential looks to
decrease through the afternoon and vertical motion all but
disappears by the evening so only kept drizzle near/south of I-35
after 6 PM.

Accumulations: The convective and slantwise instability, along
with the initial dry air presence and sleet potential make this a
difficult accumulation forecast. Current expectations are for only
very light sleet accumulation at the onset of precip. Then, as
snow increases, expect widespread amounts of 1 inch or more but
with bands of snow approaching 4 inches where that enhanced lift
can persist for any decent duration. If frontogenesis bands can
interact with this instability as well, then could see a couple
locations flirt slightly higher amounts. But again, this is
uncertain and identifying the location of snow bands is impossible
at this time. They may also be quite narrow with several inch
variations across areas as small as a county.

The rest of the forecast is rather benign. See a gradual warm-up
by the weekend. A deepening short wave trough will move into the
region by late Sunday, but may not get organized enough or have
access to enough moisture to produce much precipitation until it
gets east of the local forecast area. Do expect cooler conditions
as the wave passes, and a second piece of upper energy early next
week could keep at least some potential for light precipitation in
the area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 537 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Patchy MVFR stratus will persist over terminals before lifting
to VFR between 15Z and 17Z. Mid level clouds increase through the
day as disturbance lifts northeast towards south central KS.
Confidence wavers on exact timing of snowfall as short term
guidance is in disagreement. Believe drier air at the surface will
take some time to overcome so have delayed snowfall beginning until
2Z to 3Z. Conditions will quickly deteriorate with snowfall this
evening from MVFR to likely IFR and LIFR between midnight and 12Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-054-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Bowen










000
FXUS63 KDDC 171100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT
WHERE IFR CIGS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  30  70  30   0
GCK  42  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  30  40  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  30  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 171100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. EXCEPTION IS TONIGHT
WHERE IFR CIGS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  30  70  30   0
GCK  42  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  30  40  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  30  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 171005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 171005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 171005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 171005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 171005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
305 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY
00Z THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN EXIT THE
AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO THE SFC SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CREATE A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND. SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST IN INTRODUCING POPS BUT RIGHT NOW HAVE SOME LIGHT
SNOW STARTING AROUND 22Z-23Z FOR AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND
FLAGLER...IN THE HEART OF 850-500 MOISTURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WITH A DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 LAYER MOVES DOWN. HAVE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING A HALF INCH AT BEST BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (UNDER COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND
STRATUS) WITH LOW 30S TO AROUND 40 SOUTH...WARMEST IN THE TRIBUNE
AND LEOTI AREAS. LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH MID 20S
FAR EAST-SOUTH.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN
THE MORNING FROM NORTON TO NEAR LEOTI AND POINTS EAST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS MID TO LATE MORNING AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTHEAST CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ANOTHER BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
NIGHT WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN
TRIBUNE. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY WITH
SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVING IN DURING THE NIGHT. SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXCEPT OVER SNOWPACK AREAS OF KIT CARSON AND
YUMA COUNTIES WHERE MID 30S EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

WESTERLY QUASI ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRI STATE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.  WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO BLANKET IN WARMTH...LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL FILTER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS PUSHES PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF AND GFS40 HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND 850-700 CRITICAL THICKNESS
PLACEMENTS...HOWEVER EXPECTING ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FLOW INTO THE AREA...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL GENERALLY POSITION
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN/SNOW
MIXES TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE AFTER SUNDOWN.  PRECIPITATION
WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE LATEST
ECMWF IS FORECASTING BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF SNOW FOR EASTERN
COLORADO...BUT A LOT OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS COMING IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIXES BASED ON 700-850 CRITICAL THICKNESS
LINES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS.  THEREFORE...ALIGNED SNOW FORECAST
MORE WITH GFS40 FORECAST WITH SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.  BASED ON ADVECTION AT 850 MB BRINGING IN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING...DECIDED TO BUMP THE BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ON TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.  MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
COOLER...SO TEMPERATURE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LOWER IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

KGLD...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z BRINGING
SOME SNOW NEAR THE TERMINAL. LIGHT SNOW WITH VIS IN THE 1-3NM
RANGE EXPECTED FROM 03Z-09Z WITH WINDS FROM THE EAST AROUND 7KTS.
FROM 10Z-12Z SNOW WILL EXIT THE TERMINAL WITH IFR/VLIFR CIGS
CONTINUING.

KMCK...IFR/VLIFR CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 01Z BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE TERMINAL THEN EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
10Z. LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW POSSIBLE FROM 04Z-08Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST 4-7KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171004
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  30  70  30   0
GCK  42  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  30  40  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  30  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 171004
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A LOW TO PERHAPS MODERATE IMPACT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY FORMIDABLE DISTURBANCE
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE APPEARED VERY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WAS SLOWLY RESPONDING TO THE ADVANCING
DISTURBANCE...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL STAY IN PLACE AND
SLOWLY DEEPEN, KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
AREA AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION TOWARD THE COOLER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE
A SLIVER OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOMENTUM WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY
ELKHART TO AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ULYSSES.

THE 800-600MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND PRECIPITATION WILL
EVENTUALLY BE REALIZED IN THE 22Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS
VERY QUESTIONABLE IN THE OPERATIONAL WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMMB
RUNS...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WELL NORTH INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AS EARLY AS 21Z.  THIS JUST SEEMS TOO EARLY, AND
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION THAT FAR NORTH THAT
EARLY, SO THESE MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED. A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM12
AND THE ECMWF APPEARS MUCH MORE REASONABLE...KEEPING ALL OF THE
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION IN THE 00-09Z TIME FRAME FOR THE MOST
PART. BOTH THE MODELS SUGGEST A WARM ADVECTION/WARM CONVEYER SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS A HINT AT A DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND
700MB FARTHER WEST. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FARTHER WEST AS WELL...PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS A GARDEN CITY TO SCOTT CITY LINE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
ALSO A BIT OF A CHALLENGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW A
WARM LAYER ALOFT, SO JUST THE LITTLE BIT OF COOLING WITH INCREASING
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT WILL PUSH THE VERTICAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE TO A SNOW PROFILE. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT AS THIS IS HAPPENING LATE IN THE NIGHT,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEAST.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY AND RESULTING
700MB DEFORMATION ZONE, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ALONG AN AXIS FROM KALVESTA TO DIGHTON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO HAYS TO
LARNED, ROUGHLY. IN THIS AREA, THE LATEST OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL
SNOWFALL WILL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT DURING
THIS EVENT, AND WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 29 TO 32F FOR THIS
EVENT, IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS SUCH, WE WILL NOT ISSUE A
WINTER WX ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE FORECAST INDICATE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON THE DAY SHIFT, THEN THIS HEADLINE THINKING WILL NEED TO
BE CHANGED, AND A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SOME LINGERING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THURSDAY:

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TAPER WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAIN OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY COLD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 20S.

FRIDAY:

WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S.

AND THE REST:

THE REST OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS IS NOT A CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND
AND PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK AS DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP MONDAY WITH
A FROPA, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AGAIN, NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WINTER IS NOT A PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY PLEASANT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
- AROUND 50 OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, AVERAGING 10 TO
14 KNOTS AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
DRAW IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO FALL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AT DDC, GCK, AND HYS
SOMETIME DURING THE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIMING AND PRECIP TYPE UNCERTAINTIES AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WILL
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT TAF UPDATE AT 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  32  37  29 /  30  70  30   0
GCK  42  32  40  27 /  20  60  20   0
EHA  49  32  43  28 /  30  40  10   0
LBL  46  35  41  29 /  20  30  20   0
HYS  34  28  34  26 /  30  80  20   0
P28  37  32  38  30 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KTOP 170958
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern in the forecast package is the wintry precipitation
expected later today and tonight for northeast Kansas. The main
upper trough axis arriving this evening was currently rotating
across southern AZ as seen on water vapor imagery. Additional
areas of vorticity maxima were lifting north and east from western
TX while a much weaker wave was shifting east through southern NE.
Bands of weak reflectivity have since developed across the CWA and
are quickly evaporating within the dry airmass at the surface. Low
to middle 20s are common for lows with the patchy low level
stratus in place.

Surface high pressure this morning quickly lifts northward as the
storm system begins to lift northeast towards the CWA. Mid level
moisture increases through the day, as stratus returns by early
afternoon. Highs were lowered a few degrees to the lower 30s as
short term guidance hints at a thicker mid level cloud deck with
the lead trough arriving as early as late afternoon.

The first stronger short wave trough energy is expected to work
into east central KS by mid afternoon with enhanced Q-Vector
convergence and pressure advection on the 1.5 PVU surface. Still
expect quite a bit of dry air in the mid levels at this time, but
several models including GFS/ECMWF/NMM/ARW/RAP/HRRR indicate that
partial to full saturation will occur between 3 and 6 PM in east
central KS. This seems reasonable given presence of instability
which can result in showery precipitation even in the presence of
dry air. This early precip will fall through a weak warm layer
before wet bulbing cools temps aloft, so have included sleet or
snow in the afternoon forecast. The focus of this early lift
remains south of I-70 so the forecast is initially slow in
bringing precip north.

Expect precipitation to become more widespread through the evening
hours with deep moisture advection expected and continuous weak to
moderate vertical motion throughout the troposphere. Broad lift
supported by jet divergence aloft, broad height falls, a
continuous train of weak embedded short wave energy, and broad
isentropic upslope flow in the lower troposphere. Expect mesoscale
or smaller enhancements to be provided by convective and slantwise
instability and multiple bands of frontogenesis expected to
develop from SW to NE across the forecast area. Any early sleet
potential should quickly translate to all snow as saturation cools
the initially warm layers. The peak of the event can be expected
between about 9 PM and 4 AM. Snow will then gradually decrease and
some drier air is likely to move in aloft in the snow growth
temperature zone. While vertical motion will be waning by sunrise,
still see enough to support some drizzle potential. Temperatures
will likely be below freezing during the morning so could have
very minor freezing drizzle accumulation. This potential looks to
decrease through the afternoon and vertical motion all but
disappears by the evening so only kept drizzle near/south of I-35
after 6 PM.

Accumulations: The convective and slantwise instability, along
with the initial dry air presence and sleet potential make this a
difficult accumulation forecast. Current expectations are for only
very light sleet accumulation at the onset of precip. Then, as
snow increases, expect widespread amounts of 1 inch or more but
with bands of snow approaching 4 inches where that enhanced lift
can persist for any decent duration. If frontogenesis bands can
interact with this instability as well, then could see a couple
locations flirt slightly higher amounts. But again, this is
uncertain and identifying the location of snow bands is impossible
at this time. They may also be quite narrow with several inch
variations across areas as small as a county.

The rest of the forecast is rather benign. See a gradual warm-up
by the weekend. A deepening short wave trough will move into the
region by late Sunday, but may not get organized enough or have
access to enough moisture to produce much precipitation until it
gets east of the local forecast area. Do expect cooler conditions
as the wave passes, and a second piece of upper energy early next
week could keep at least some potential for light precipitation in
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Persistent thin layer of low stratus continues to impact TAF sites
for a few more hours but anticipate thinning trend to continue.
Next impact on flight categories doesn`t come until late tomorrow
evening as next upper system approaches and eventually spreads
snow...possibly mixed with freezing drizzle...across NE Kansas
through the night beyond this TAF Period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-054-058-059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bowen/Barjenbruch
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KICT 170958
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  40  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  30  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  30  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  40  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  30  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 170958
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern in the forecast package is the wintry precipitation
expected later today and tonight for northeast Kansas. The main
upper trough axis arriving this evening was currently rotating
across southern AZ as seen on water vapor imagery. Additional
areas of vorticity maxima were lifting north and east from western
TX while a much weaker wave was shifting east through southern NE.
Bands of weak reflectivity have since developed across the CWA and
are quickly evaporating within the dry airmass at the surface. Low
to middle 20s are common for lows with the patchy low level
stratus in place.

Surface high pressure this morning quickly lifts northward as the
storm system begins to lift northeast towards the CWA. Mid level
moisture increases through the day, as stratus returns by early
afternoon. Highs were lowered a few degrees to the lower 30s as
short term guidance hints at a thicker mid level cloud deck with
the lead trough arriving as early as late afternoon.

The first stronger short wave trough energy is expected to work
into east central KS by mid afternoon with enhanced Q-Vector
convergence and pressure advection on the 1.5 PVU surface. Still
expect quite a bit of dry air in the mid levels at this time, but
several models including GFS/ECMWF/NMM/ARW/RAP/HRRR indicate that
partial to full saturation will occur between 3 and 6 PM in east
central KS. This seems reasonable given presence of instability
which can result in showery precipitation even in the presence of
dry air. This early precip will fall through a weak warm layer
before wet bulbing cools temps aloft, so have included sleet or
snow in the afternoon forecast. The focus of this early lift
remains south of I-70 so the forecast is initially slow in
bringing precip north.

Expect precipitation to become more widespread through the evening
hours with deep moisture advection expected and continuous weak to
moderate vertical motion throughout the troposphere. Broad lift
supported by jet divergence aloft, broad height falls, a
continuous train of weak embedded short wave energy, and broad
isentropic upslope flow in the lower troposphere. Expect mesoscale
or smaller enhancements to be provided by convective and slantwise
instability and multiple bands of frontogenesis expected to
develop from SW to NE across the forecast area. Any early sleet
potential should quickly translate to all snow as saturation cools
the initially warm layers. The peak of the event can be expected
between about 9 PM and 4 AM. Snow will then gradually decrease and
some drier air is likely to move in aloft in the snow growth
temperature zone. While vertical motion will be waning by sunrise,
still see enough to support some drizzle potential. Temperatures
will likely be below freezing during the morning so could have
very minor freezing drizzle accumulation. This potential looks to
decrease through the afternoon and vertical motion all but
disappears by the evening so only kept drizzle near/south of I-35
after 6 PM.

Accumulations: The convective and slantwise instability, along
with the initial dry air presence and sleet potential make this a
difficult accumulation forecast. Current expectations are for only
very light sleet accumulation at the onset of precip. Then, as
snow increases, expect widespread amounts of 1 inch or more but
with bands of snow approaching 4 inches where that enhanced lift
can persist for any decent duration. If frontogenesis bands can
interact with this instability as well, then could see a couple
locations flirt slightly higher amounts. But again, this is
uncertain and identifying the location of snow bands is impossible
at this time. They may also be quite narrow with several inch
variations across areas as small as a county.

The rest of the forecast is rather benign. See a gradual warm-up
by the weekend. A deepening short wave trough will move into the
region by late Sunday, but may not get organized enough or have
access to enough moisture to produce much precipitation until it
gets east of the local forecast area. Do expect cooler conditions
as the wave passes, and a second piece of upper energy early next
week could keep at least some potential for light precipitation in
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Persistent thin layer of low stratus continues to impact TAF sites
for a few more hours but anticipate thinning trend to continue.
Next impact on flight categories doesn`t come until late tomorrow
evening as next upper system approaches and eventually spreads
snow...possibly mixed with freezing drizzle...across NE Kansas
through the night beyond this TAF Period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-054-058-059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bowen/Barjenbruch
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KICT 170958
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  40  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  30  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  30  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  40  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  30  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 170958
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Main concern in the forecast package is the wintry precipitation
expected later today and tonight for northeast Kansas. The main
upper trough axis arriving this evening was currently rotating
across southern AZ as seen on water vapor imagery. Additional
areas of vorticity maxima were lifting north and east from western
TX while a much weaker wave was shifting east through southern NE.
Bands of weak reflectivity have since developed across the CWA and
are quickly evaporating within the dry airmass at the surface. Low
to middle 20s are common for lows with the patchy low level
stratus in place.

Surface high pressure this morning quickly lifts northward as the
storm system begins to lift northeast towards the CWA. Mid level
moisture increases through the day, as stratus returns by early
afternoon. Highs were lowered a few degrees to the lower 30s as
short term guidance hints at a thicker mid level cloud deck with
the lead trough arriving as early as late afternoon.

The first stronger short wave trough energy is expected to work
into east central KS by mid afternoon with enhanced Q-Vector
convergence and pressure advection on the 1.5 PVU surface. Still
expect quite a bit of dry air in the mid levels at this time, but
several models including GFS/ECMWF/NMM/ARW/RAP/HRRR indicate that
partial to full saturation will occur between 3 and 6 PM in east
central KS. This seems reasonable given presence of instability
which can result in showery precipitation even in the presence of
dry air. This early precip will fall through a weak warm layer
before wet bulbing cools temps aloft, so have included sleet or
snow in the afternoon forecast. The focus of this early lift
remains south of I-70 so the forecast is initially slow in
bringing precip north.

Expect precipitation to become more widespread through the evening
hours with deep moisture advection expected and continuous weak to
moderate vertical motion throughout the troposphere. Broad lift
supported by jet divergence aloft, broad height falls, a
continuous train of weak embedded short wave energy, and broad
isentropic upslope flow in the lower troposphere. Expect mesoscale
or smaller enhancements to be provided by convective and slantwise
instability and multiple bands of frontogenesis expected to
develop from SW to NE across the forecast area. Any early sleet
potential should quickly translate to all snow as saturation cools
the initially warm layers. The peak of the event can be expected
between about 9 PM and 4 AM. Snow will then gradually decrease and
some drier air is likely to move in aloft in the snow growth
temperature zone. While vertical motion will be waning by sunrise,
still see enough to support some drizzle potential. Temperatures
will likely be below freezing during the morning so could have
very minor freezing drizzle accumulation. This potential looks to
decrease through the afternoon and vertical motion all but
disappears by the evening so only kept drizzle near/south of I-35
after 6 PM.

Accumulations: The convective and slantwise instability, along
with the initial dry air presence and sleet potential make this a
difficult accumulation forecast. Current expectations are for only
very light sleet accumulation at the onset of precip. Then, as
snow increases, expect widespread amounts of 1 inch or more but
with bands of snow approaching 4 inches where that enhanced lift
can persist for any decent duration. If frontogenesis bands can
interact with this instability as well, then could see a couple
locations flirt slightly higher amounts. But again, this is
uncertain and identifying the location of snow bands is impossible
at this time. They may also be quite narrow with several inch
variations across areas as small as a county.

The rest of the forecast is rather benign. See a gradual warm-up
by the weekend. A deepening short wave trough will move into the
region by late Sunday, but may not get organized enough or have
access to enough moisture to produce much precipitation until it
gets east of the local forecast area. Do expect cooler conditions
as the wave passes, and a second piece of upper energy early next
week could keep at least some potential for light precipitation in
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

Persistent thin layer of low stratus continues to impact TAF sites
for a few more hours but anticipate thinning trend to continue.
Next impact on flight categories doesn`t come until late tomorrow
evening as next upper system approaches and eventually spreads
snow...possibly mixed with freezing drizzle...across NE Kansas
through the night beyond this TAF Period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ020>024-026-034-036-038>040-055-056.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ008>012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ035-037-054-058-059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bowen/Barjenbruch
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KICT 170958
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

TODAY:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH AND INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 0000 UTC MODELS
SHOWED CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FORCED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD/FASTER
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST...BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS...WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST/TIMING/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TONIGHT:
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS THIS PERIOD. NAM/GFS/
SREF/ECMWF ALL SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LESS CHANCES FOR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDING AND ENHANCED AMOUNTS
HAS INCREASED. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 1-2 INCHES AVERAGE IN SWATH
ACROSS MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
PROBABLE. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400...COMBO OF RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.
BASED ON NEWER TOTALS...AND FOR PERIOD OF MIXED/FREEZING
PRECIPITATION IN TRANSITION ZONE...HAVE HOISTED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREA ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BEST
INSTABILITY/LIFT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 0000 UTC-0600 UTC WITH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY WANING AFTER 0600 UTC.

THU-FRI:
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING...THEN WANING
TO JUST SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SECOND UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH...WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES GOING IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO INITALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN ACTIVE SHORT TERM. DID
KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING MON-MON NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS. FOR
AREAS WITH PRECIPITATION...THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
RAIN...WITH ONLY SLIVER OF THAT AREA IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  32  37  32 /  50  80  30  10
HUTCHINSON      34  31  35  31 /  50  80  30  10
NEWTON          33  30  35  31 /  40  80  40  10
ELDORADO        34  31  36  31 /  50  80  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  32  38  33 /  50  70  30  10
RUSSELL         32  29  34  29 /  30  80  30  10
GREAT BEND      33  30  35  30 /  30  80  30  10
SALINA          32  30  35  30 /  30  80  40  10
MCPHERSON       33  30  35  30 /  40  80  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     38  34  40  35 /  50  70  30  20
CHANUTE         34  32  38  32 /  40  80  40  20
IOLA            34  31  37  31 /  30  80  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    36  33  39  34 /  50  80  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083.

&&

$$




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities