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000
FXUS63 KDDC 291500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA. AREA OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
HANGING ON LONGER AND FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY CALLED. LATEST
HRRR WAS CATCHING THIS AND USED THIS TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SIGNIFICANT, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS MORE AND MORE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST, WEST CENTRAL, AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE 00-06Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, THANKS TO COUPLING
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT FROM THE EXITING MIDWEST JET AND PERTURBED
MONSOON FLOW FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO
COLORADO. THERE WAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH GREATEST AREA OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION (AND SUBSEQUENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT) MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING. EVERY NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION WE CAN GET OUR HANDS ON SHOWS THE SAME THING: A
SWATH OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL QPF, WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING
IN THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS WHERE
THE IMPORTANT 850-750MB MEAN FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP. THERE HAS
BEEN A SLIGHT TREND TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE IN THE
GFS AND NOW THE LATEST 29.06Z RUN OF THE NAM12.

THERE ARE A COUPLE THINGS THAT ARE CONCERNING FOR A FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT: 1) THE MONSOON INFLUENCE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF FAIRLY HIGH CONTENT WATER VAPOR
(TROPICAL IN NATURE) ALL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. 29.00Z RAOB AT GRAND
JUNCTION, CO AND ALBUQUERQUE, NM BOTH SHOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
UP ABOVE 500MB (500MB MIXING RATIO AT OR JUST ABOVE 4 G/KG). 2)
ORIENTATION OF 750-850MB ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WITH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW. THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL SETUP IN A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION DURING THE TIME FRAME
IN QUESTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 850-300MB THICKNESS FIELD,
WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATION OF MCS MOTION IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. TRAINING OF STORMS IN A HIGH-PRECIPITATION EFFECIENCY
ENVIRONMENT IS DEFINITELY A STRONG POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME AREAS SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. PER COLLABORATION WITH AMA, OUN, AND PUB, WE
DECIDED TO ALL JOIN IN ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE OFFICIAL QPF
GRIDS WILL REFLECT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A SCOTT CITY TO
JETMORE TO PRATT LINE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OR TWO OF 4 OR
EVEN 5-INCH AMOUNTS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, BUT THIS LEVEL OF
DETAIL CANNOT BE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTAL,
THOUGH, AND WE WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS IN THE DAYS
2 AND 3 TIMEFRAME WITH RESPECT TO THE METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS.
FOLLOWING THE MODELS, SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN POPS WAS MADE FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS
ADVERTISES THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF QPF, ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD EASILY BE ACHIEVABLE WITH TRAINING STORMS
IN THIS MIDLEVEL TROPICAL RELATIVELY WARM COLLISION-COALESCENCE
ENVIRONMENT. THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOL
TEMPERATURES  IN THE THE UPPER 60`S WHERE THE HEAVIEST DEEP CLOUD
LAYER PRODUCES RAIN COOLED AIR THROUGH THE DAY.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A SIGNAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS, OCCASIONALLY MOVING INTO EXTREME SW KANSAS BY
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH THE 80S
THOUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST HRRR INDICATED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. GCK COULD SEE A VICINITY SHOWER AFTER 14
UTC. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  63  68  60 /  40 100  90  50
GCK  83  63  69  57 /  40 100  90  40
EHA  79  62  72  60 /  40  90  70  40
LBL  80  63  72  61 /  40 100  90  50
HYS  87  63  73  61 /  20  60  70  30
P28  89  65  69  62 /  20  90  90  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL







000
FXUS63 KDDC 291500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO RAISE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA. AREA OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
HANGING ON LONGER AND FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY CALLED. LATEST
HRRR WAS CATCHING THIS AND USED THIS TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A SIGNIFICANT, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS MORE AND MORE LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST, WEST CENTRAL, AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE 00-06Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, THANKS TO COUPLING
DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT FROM THE EXITING MIDWEST JET AND PERTURBED
MONSOON FLOW FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA ROTATING ANTICYCLONICALLY INTO
COLORADO. THERE WAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY ANOMALY MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN UTAH, WITH GREATEST AREA OF POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION (AND SUBSEQUENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC ASCENT) MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO AS OF 08Z THIS MORNING. EVERY NUMERICAL
WEATHER PREDICTION WE CAN GET OUR HANDS ON SHOWS THE SAME THING: A
SWATH OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL QPF, WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING
IN THE 06-18Z TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS WHERE
THE IMPORTANT 850-750MB MEAN FRONTOGENESIS WILL SET UP. THERE HAS
BEEN A SLIGHT TREND TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE IN THE
GFS AND NOW THE LATEST 29.06Z RUN OF THE NAM12.

THERE ARE A COUPLE THINGS THAT ARE CONCERNING FOR A FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT: 1) THE MONSOON INFLUENCE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF FAIRLY HIGH CONTENT WATER VAPOR
(TROPICAL IN NATURE) ALL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. 29.00Z RAOB AT GRAND
JUNCTION, CO AND ALBUQUERQUE, NM BOTH SHOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
UP ABOVE 500MB (500MB MIXING RATIO AT OR JUST ABOVE 4 G/KG). 2)
ORIENTATION OF 750-850MB ZONE OF FRONTOGENESIS WITH DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC MEAN FLOW. THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL SETUP IN A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION DURING THE TIME FRAME
IN QUESTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE 850-300MB THICKNESS FIELD,
WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATION OF MCS MOTION IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. TRAINING OF STORMS IN A HIGH-PRECIPITATION EFFECIENCY
ENVIRONMENT IS DEFINITELY A STRONG POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME AREAS SEEING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. PER COLLABORATION WITH AMA, OUN, AND PUB, WE
DECIDED TO ALL JOIN IN ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE OFFICIAL QPF
GRIDS WILL REFLECT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OVER
A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A SCOTT CITY TO
JETMORE TO PRATT LINE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BAND OR TWO OF 4 OR
EVEN 5-INCH AMOUNTS WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, BUT THIS LEVEL OF
DETAIL CANNOT BE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTAL,
THOUGH, AND WE WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST ELEMENTS IN THE DAYS
2 AND 3 TIMEFRAME WITH RESPECT TO THE METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENTS.
FOLLOWING THE MODELS, SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN POPS WAS MADE FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM RAIN SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS
ADVERTISES THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF QPF, ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD EASILY BE ACHIEVABLE WITH TRAINING STORMS
IN THIS MIDLEVEL TROPICAL RELATIVELY WARM COLLISION-COALESCENCE
ENVIRONMENT. THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE COOL
TEMPERATURES  IN THE THE UPPER 60`S WHERE THE HEAVIEST DEEP CLOUD
LAYER PRODUCES RAIN COOLED AIR THROUGH THE DAY.  BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
A SIGNAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS, OCCASIONALLY MOVING INTO EXTREME SW KANSAS BY
EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE THROUGH THE 80S
THOUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LATEST HRRR INDICATED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF
IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. GCK COULD SEE A VICINITY SHOWER AFTER 14
UTC. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  63  68  60 /  40 100  90  50
GCK  83  63  69  57 /  40 100  90  40
EHA  79  62  72  60 /  40  90  70  40
LBL  80  63  72  61 /  40 100  90  50
HYS  87  63  73  61 /  20  60  70  30
P28  89  65  69  62 /  20  90  90  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL








000
FXUS63 KDDC 291218
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
718 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A significant, excessive rainfall event appears more and more likely
across portions of southwest, west central, and south central
Kansas. lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will increase
substantially in the 00-06Z Wednesday time frame, thanks to coupling
dynamics for ascent from the exiting Midwest jet and perturbed
monsoon flow from northern Arizona rotating anticyclonically into
Colorado. There was a fairly well-defined vorticity anomaly moving
north-northeast into southern Utah, with greatest area of potential
vorticity advection (and subsequent mid-tropospheric ascent) moving
into western Colorado as of 08Z this morning. Every numerical
weather prediction we can get our hands on shows the same thing: a
swath of 2 to 5 inches of storm total QPF, with much of it falling
in the 06-18Z time frame Wednesday. The question still remains where
the important 850-750mb mean frontogenesis will set up. There has
been a slight trend to the north with the frontogenetic zone in the
GFS and now the latest 29.06Z run of the NAM12.

There are a couple things that are concerning for a flood/flash
flood threat: 1) the monsoon influence. Water vapor satellite loop
shows a fairly large area of fairly high content water vapor
(tropical in nature) all across the Desert Southwest into the
Southern Rockies and into far western Kansas. 29.00Z RAOB at Grand
Junction, CO and Albuquerque, NM both show deep tropical moisture
up above 500mb (500mb mixing ratio at or just above 4 g/kg). 2)
orientation of 750-850mb zone of frontogenesis with deep
tropospheric mean flow. The frontogenetic zone will setup in a
west-northwest to east-southeast orientation during the time frame
in question late tonight through the first half of Wednesday,
which will be nearly parallel to the 850-300mb thickness field,
which is usually a good indication of MCS motion in this
environment. Training of storms in a high-precipitation effeciency
environment is definitely a strong possibility. This will
certainly lead to some areas seeing excessive rainfall over a short
period of time. Per collaboration with AMA, OUN, and PUB, we
decided to all join in on a Flash Flood Watch. The official QPF
grids will reflect storm total amounts in excess of 2 inches over
a large portion of the area south of roughly a Scott City to
Jetmore to Pratt line. There will likely be a band or two of 4 or
even 5-inch amounts when all is said and done, but this level of
detail cannot be forecast at this time. All indications are that
the atmosphere will be capable of this excessive rainfall total,
though, and we will mention this in the Flash Flood Watch product.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Little overall change was made to the forecast elements in the days
2 and 3 timeframe with respect to the meteorological elements.
Following the models, some downward adjustment in PoPs was made for
Wednesday afternoon when convection and stratiform rain should be
winding down across south central Kansas as the mid level
frontogenetic zone weakens and moves south of the region. The GFS
advertises the highest amount of QPF, on the order of 3 to 5 inches
on Wednesday, which could easily be achievable with training storms
in this MIDLEVEL tropical relatively warm collision-coalescence
environment. The consensus of models continue to indicate cool
temperatures  in the the upper 60`s where the heaviest deep cloud
layer produces rain cooled air through the day.  Beyond Wednesday,
the region will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft with
a signal for late afternoon convection along the Palmer divide and
sangre de cristo mts, occasionally moving into extreme sw Kansas by
early evening. High temperatures should moderate through the 80s
though the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Latest HRRR indicated the scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue eastward through mid morning, but have a low probability of
impacting any terminals. GCK could see a vicinity shower after 14
UTC. Shower and thunderstorms activity will become more widespread
this evening and especially overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  63  68  60 /  30 100  90  50
GCK  83  63  69  57 /  30 100  90  40
EHA  79  62  72  60 /  40  90  70  40
LBL  80  63  72  61 /  30 100  90  50
HYS  87  63  73  61 /  10  60  70  30
P28  89  65  69  62 /  20  90  90  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
Wednesday afternoon FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell






000
FXUS63 KDDC 291218
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
718 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A significant, excessive rainfall event appears more and more likely
across portions of southwest, west central, and south central
Kansas. lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will increase
substantially in the 00-06Z Wednesday time frame, thanks to coupling
dynamics for ascent from the exiting Midwest jet and perturbed
monsoon flow from northern Arizona rotating anticyclonically into
Colorado. There was a fairly well-defined vorticity anomaly moving
north-northeast into southern Utah, with greatest area of potential
vorticity advection (and subsequent mid-tropospheric ascent) moving
into western Colorado as of 08Z this morning. Every numerical
weather prediction we can get our hands on shows the same thing: a
swath of 2 to 5 inches of storm total QPF, with much of it falling
in the 06-18Z time frame Wednesday. The question still remains where
the important 850-750mb mean frontogenesis will set up. There has
been a slight trend to the north with the frontogenetic zone in the
GFS and now the latest 29.06Z run of the NAM12.

There are a couple things that are concerning for a flood/flash
flood threat: 1) the monsoon influence. Water vapor satellite loop
shows a fairly large area of fairly high content water vapor
(tropical in nature) all across the Desert Southwest into the
Southern Rockies and into far western Kansas. 29.00Z RAOB at Grand
Junction, CO and Albuquerque, NM both show deep tropical moisture
up above 500mb (500mb mixing ratio at or just above 4 g/kg). 2)
orientation of 750-850mb zone of frontogenesis with deep
tropospheric mean flow. The frontogenetic zone will setup in a
west-northwest to east-southeast orientation during the time frame
in question late tonight through the first half of Wednesday,
which will be nearly parallel to the 850-300mb thickness field,
which is usually a good indication of MCS motion in this
environment. Training of storms in a high-precipitation effeciency
environment is definitely a strong possibility. This will
certainly lead to some areas seeing excessive rainfall over a short
period of time. Per collaboration with AMA, OUN, and PUB, we
decided to all join in on a Flash Flood Watch. The official QPF
grids will reflect storm total amounts in excess of 2 inches over
a large portion of the area south of roughly a Scott City to
Jetmore to Pratt line. There will likely be a band or two of 4 or
even 5-inch amounts when all is said and done, but this level of
detail cannot be forecast at this time. All indications are that
the atmosphere will be capable of this excessive rainfall total,
though, and we will mention this in the Flash Flood Watch product.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Little overall change was made to the forecast elements in the days
2 and 3 timeframe with respect to the meteorological elements.
Following the models, some downward adjustment in PoPs was made for
Wednesday afternoon when convection and stratiform rain should be
winding down across south central Kansas as the mid level
frontogenetic zone weakens and moves south of the region. The GFS
advertises the highest amount of QPF, on the order of 3 to 5 inches
on Wednesday, which could easily be achievable with training storms
in this MIDLEVEL tropical relatively warm collision-coalescence
environment. The consensus of models continue to indicate cool
temperatures  in the the upper 60`s where the heaviest deep cloud
layer produces rain cooled air through the day.  Beyond Wednesday,
the region will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft with
a signal for late afternoon convection along the Palmer divide and
sangre de cristo mts, occasionally moving into extreme sw Kansas by
early evening. High temperatures should moderate through the 80s
though the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Latest HRRR indicated the scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue eastward through mid morning, but have a low probability of
impacting any terminals. GCK could see a vicinity shower after 14
UTC. Shower and thunderstorms activity will become more widespread
this evening and especially overnight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  63  68  60 /  30 100  90  50
GCK  83  63  69  57 /  30 100  90  40
EHA  79  62  72  60 /  40  90  70  40
LBL  80  63  72  61 /  30 100  90  50
HYS  87  63  73  61 /  10  60  70  30
P28  89  65  69  62 /  20  90  90  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through
Wednesday afternoon FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 291153
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM WESTERN WYOMING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING...SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES THROUGH...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 1.25 INCHES. THE AREAS OF GREATEST
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE GOODLAND
FORECAST AREA AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HYDRO HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ANY
CHANGES IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE ISSUED.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE REAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BUT
STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER COLUMN
WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND PROFILE LOOKS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AS COMPARED TO THE MOIST/SATURATED DEPICTIONS FOR MID
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING IT INTO AT LEAST THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE. WITH FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND A TREND TOWARD RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...CONVECTION COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
EVENING AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO COLORADO AS TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT
INCREASE MARKEDLY BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN
BY MONDAY AS COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER 21Z AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND MOVE EAST OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AS A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY AT GLD FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z. MCK WILL HAVE A LOWER
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE LOWER CLOUDS OR A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...LOCKHART






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 291153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR
CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF SRN CANADA FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

EXPECTING SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY...AS MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SW US
BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE.

EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SETUP...WILL BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE
DETAIL...BUT HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF WILL PROBABLY BE FROM KDDC SE
TOWARDS KOUN....WHERE BEST 850-700H FN-CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ORIENTED.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AS THIS MOISTURE
INCREASES...SO THINKING MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIP WITH RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TONIGHT INTO WED.

IN OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS FOR AREAS
SW OF KICT...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES SEEING
SOME RATHER HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS BY WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A SUSTAINED RAINFALL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS...PICKING 1 TO 2 INCHES BY WED AFTERNOON. WILL SEE LESSOR
QPF AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO....BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
SOME RAINFALL BY WED AFTERNOON.

DO NOT FORESEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS RAINFALL EVENT...AS
MOST OF THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS ALMOST 4
INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD. BUT CERTAINLY A GOOD SOAKING.

THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR
SATURDAY GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WERE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KSLN-KCNU
 WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7000 FT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY ARRIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 05-07Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  65  72  64 /  10  60  70  30
HUTCHINSON      85  64  73  63 /  20  60  70  20
NEWTON          84  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  20
ELDORADO        85  63  74  63 /  20  50  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  64  71  65 /  10  60  80  30
RUSSELL         84  63  76  63 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      83  62  72  62 /  20  80  80  10
SALINA          86  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  10
MCPHERSON       85  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  76  65 /  10  40  50  30
CHANUTE         84  63  78  64 /  10  30  40  20
IOLA            84  62  78  64 /  20  30  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  62  77  64 /  10  40  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 291153
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
653 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR
CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF SRN CANADA FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

EXPECTING SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY...AS MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SW US
BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE.

EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SETUP...WILL BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE
DETAIL...BUT HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF WILL PROBABLY BE FROM KDDC SE
TOWARDS KOUN....WHERE BEST 850-700H FN-CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ORIENTED.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AS THIS MOISTURE
INCREASES...SO THINKING MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIP WITH RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TONIGHT INTO WED.

IN OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS FOR AREAS
SW OF KICT...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES SEEING
SOME RATHER HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS BY WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A SUSTAINED RAINFALL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS...PICKING 1 TO 2 INCHES BY WED AFTERNOON. WILL SEE LESSOR
QPF AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO....BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
SOME RAINFALL BY WED AFTERNOON.

DO NOT FORESEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS RAINFALL EVENT...AS
MOST OF THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS ALMOST 4
INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD. BUT CERTAINLY A GOOD SOAKING.

THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR
SATURDAY GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WERE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KSLN-KCNU
 WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7000 FT BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY ARRIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 05-07Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  65  72  64 /  10  60  70  30
HUTCHINSON      85  64  73  63 /  20  60  70  20
NEWTON          84  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  20
ELDORADO        85  63  74  63 /  20  50  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  64  71  65 /  10  60  80  30
RUSSELL         84  63  76  63 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      83  62  72  62 /  20  80  80  10
SALINA          86  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  10
MCPHERSON       85  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  76  65 /  10  40  50  30
CHANUTE         84  63  78  64 /  10  30  40  20
IOLA            84  62  78  64 /  20  30  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  62  77  64 /  10  40  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 291120
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Scattered showers and a few embedded lightning strikes have
developed from central Nebraska into north central Kansas as of 3
AM. This precipitation is in response to a band of frontogenesis
providing a fairly narrow zone of ascent within a moist and slightly
unstable elevated layer. Since yesterday, the high resolution model
guidance (NMM, ARW, RAP, HRRR) has far out-performed other guidance
in predicting this activity...and the forecast through tonight has
relied heavily on the high-res suite of guidance. The ascent should
persist or strengthen through around 15Z while it gradually shifts
southeast along line roughly from Belleville to Manhattan to
Burlington. Then expect a weakening trend after 15Z with conditions
becoming nearly dry between 21Z and 03Z when the lift is at its
weakest. While the precipitation will be persistent on a broad
scale, the showers will be more or less scattered within the main
axis of ascent and do not expect rainfall totals to be much at
all...perhaps a few areas could see more than 0.25 inch.
Temperatures will be muted by cloud cover today, with the warmest
conditions both northeast and southwest of the previously mentioned
precip axis. Highs should top out in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

The band of frontogenesis is likely to intensify once again after
03Z along roughly the same axis. This zone of ascent should
gradually pivot and shift more toward a Concordia to Manhattan to
Ottawa line after midnight. By late in the night, additional
moisture influx into the region is expected in advance of a fairly
strong short wave trough that will move from southwest Utah this
morning into southwest Kansas tonight. Again, heavy rain is not
expected but a few areas could possibly approach 0.5 inch or more
tonight where the showers are more persistent. Low temperatures
should stay a bit warmer with persistent cloud cover, generally
ranging from the upper 50s in far northeast Kansas to the middle 60s
in east central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The aforementioned upper trough impacts portions of the CWA by
Wednesday morning. Cross sections reveal decent low to mid level
frontogenesis aiding the mid level vorticity maxima centered over
southwest Kansas. These areas expect the bulk of the precipitation
while over northeast Kansas, areas south of Interstate 70 see
optimal chances for rain showers. Precipitable water values are
fairly low given the quick invading mid level subsidence which will
help to clear out cloud cover north to south during the late afternoon.
Following consistent runs with the 4 KM WRF and the overall guidance
trends of the precip bands spreading a touch further north and east,
decided to increase pops south and add slight chances north of
Interstate 70. Mid level instability is minimal with perhaps an
isolated lightning strike. Highs Wednesday were also lowered a few
degrees based on the slightly thicker and longer duration of cloud
cover. Skies clear out Wednesday evening with surface high pressure
pushing into the region. Strong radiational cooling and calm
winds look probable for patchy fog in areas that receive rainfall.

Mostly dry north to northwest flow continues through the forecast
period with no poignant upper waves to hold high confidence on. On
Friday into Saturday, a weak front may provide additional support,
however the weak nature of the boundary combined with lacking
moisture seen on sounding profiles suggest low confidence in
initiation. With the inconsistent timing and placement, decided to
leave out mention of precipitation on Friday and Saturday to see if
any congruency in the next few runs materializes. For the latter
part of the weekend into next Monday, another upper trough dips
south over the northern plains as southerly flow increases
temperatures. After a mild week with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s, a warming trend commences with 90s possible for highs
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

There are isolated showers near TAF sites this morning, and this
activity should continue for a few hours. No vis or ceiling
restrictions are expected below VFR, even during shower activity.
Expect a similar situation with scattered SHRA and VFR conditions
later tonight, mainly after 08Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 291120
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Scattered showers and a few embedded lightning strikes have
developed from central Nebraska into north central Kansas as of 3
AM. This precipitation is in response to a band of frontogenesis
providing a fairly narrow zone of ascent within a moist and slightly
unstable elevated layer. Since yesterday, the high resolution model
guidance (NMM, ARW, RAP, HRRR) has far out-performed other guidance
in predicting this activity...and the forecast through tonight has
relied heavily on the high-res suite of guidance. The ascent should
persist or strengthen through around 15Z while it gradually shifts
southeast along line roughly from Belleville to Manhattan to
Burlington. Then expect a weakening trend after 15Z with conditions
becoming nearly dry between 21Z and 03Z when the lift is at its
weakest. While the precipitation will be persistent on a broad
scale, the showers will be more or less scattered within the main
axis of ascent and do not expect rainfall totals to be much at
all...perhaps a few areas could see more than 0.25 inch.
Temperatures will be muted by cloud cover today, with the warmest
conditions both northeast and southwest of the previously mentioned
precip axis. Highs should top out in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

The band of frontogenesis is likely to intensify once again after
03Z along roughly the same axis. This zone of ascent should
gradually pivot and shift more toward a Concordia to Manhattan to
Ottawa line after midnight. By late in the night, additional
moisture influx into the region is expected in advance of a fairly
strong short wave trough that will move from southwest Utah this
morning into southwest Kansas tonight. Again, heavy rain is not
expected but a few areas could possibly approach 0.5 inch or more
tonight where the showers are more persistent. Low temperatures
should stay a bit warmer with persistent cloud cover, generally
ranging from the upper 50s in far northeast Kansas to the middle 60s
in east central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The aforementioned upper trough impacts portions of the CWA by
Wednesday morning. Cross sections reveal decent low to mid level
frontogenesis aiding the mid level vorticity maxima centered over
southwest Kansas. These areas expect the bulk of the precipitation
while over northeast Kansas, areas south of Interstate 70 see
optimal chances for rain showers. Precipitable water values are
fairly low given the quick invading mid level subsidence which will
help to clear out cloud cover north to south during the late afternoon.
Following consistent runs with the 4 KM WRF and the overall guidance
trends of the precip bands spreading a touch further north and east,
decided to increase pops south and add slight chances north of
Interstate 70. Mid level instability is minimal with perhaps an
isolated lightning strike. Highs Wednesday were also lowered a few
degrees based on the slightly thicker and longer duration of cloud
cover. Skies clear out Wednesday evening with surface high pressure
pushing into the region. Strong radiational cooling and calm
winds look probable for patchy fog in areas that receive rainfall.

Mostly dry north to northwest flow continues through the forecast
period with no poignant upper waves to hold high confidence on. On
Friday into Saturday, a weak front may provide additional support,
however the weak nature of the boundary combined with lacking
moisture seen on sounding profiles suggest low confidence in
initiation. With the inconsistent timing and placement, decided to
leave out mention of precipitation on Friday and Saturday to see if
any congruency in the next few runs materializes. For the latter
part of the weekend into next Monday, another upper trough dips
south over the northern plains as southerly flow increases
temperatures. After a mild week with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s, a warming trend commences with 90s possible for highs
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

There are isolated showers near TAF sites this morning, and this
activity should continue for a few hours. No vis or ceiling
restrictions are expected below VFR, even during shower activity.
Expect a similar situation with scattered SHRA and VFR conditions
later tonight, mainly after 08Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KGLD 291035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM WESTERN WYOMING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING...SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES THROUGH...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 1.25 INCHES. THE AREAS OF GREATEST
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE GOODLAND
FORECAST AREA AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HYDRO HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ANY
CHANGES IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE ISSUED.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE REAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BUT
STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER COLUMN
WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND PROFILE LOOKS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AS COMPARED TO THE MOIST/SATURATED DEPICTIONS FOR MID
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING IT INTO AT LEAST THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE. WITH FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND A TREND TOWARD RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...CONVECTION COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
EVENING AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO COLORADO AS TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT
INCREASE MARKEDLY BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN
BY MONDAY AS COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
SOME STRATUS (MVFR) MAY DEVELOP AT KGLD WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER RH PROGGED IN THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDING IS NOT AS
SATURATED NEAR THE SURFACE AS KGLD AT THAT TIME. THE STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES
TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS






000
FXUS63 KGLD 291035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM WESTERN WYOMING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING...SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES THROUGH...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 1.25 INCHES. THE AREAS OF GREATEST
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE GOODLAND
FORECAST AREA AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HYDRO HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ANY
CHANGES IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE ISSUED.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE REAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BUT
STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER COLUMN
WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND PROFILE LOOKS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AS COMPARED TO THE MOIST/SATURATED DEPICTIONS FOR MID
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING IT INTO AT LEAST THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE. WITH FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND A TREND TOWARD RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...CONVECTION COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
EVENING AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO COLORADO AS TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT
INCREASE MARKEDLY BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN
BY MONDAY AS COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
SOME STRATUS (MVFR) MAY DEVELOP AT KGLD WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER RH PROGGED IN THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDING IS NOT AS
SATURATED NEAR THE SURFACE AS KGLD AT THAT TIME. THE STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES
TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS






000
FXUS63 KGLD 291035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM WESTERN WYOMING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING...SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES THROUGH...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 1.25 INCHES. THE AREAS OF GREATEST
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE GOODLAND
FORECAST AREA AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HYDRO HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ANY
CHANGES IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE ISSUED.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE REAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BUT
STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER COLUMN
WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND PROFILE LOOKS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AS COMPARED TO THE MOIST/SATURATED DEPICTIONS FOR MID
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING IT INTO AT LEAST THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE. WITH FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND A TREND TOWARD RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...CONVECTION COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
EVENING AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO COLORADO AS TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT
INCREASE MARKEDLY BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN
BY MONDAY AS COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
SOME STRATUS (MVFR) MAY DEVELOP AT KGLD WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER RH PROGGED IN THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDING IS NOT AS
SATURATED NEAR THE SURFACE AS KGLD AT THAT TIME. THE STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES
TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS






000
FXUS63 KGLD 291035
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM WESTERN WYOMING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE
MAIN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO THIS
EVENING...SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IT MOVES THROUGH...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ARE AS HIGH AS 1.5 TO 1.25 INCHES. THE AREAS OF GREATEST
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE GOODLAND
FORECAST AREA AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A
LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN
COLORADO...NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HYDRO HIGHLIGHTS WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT ANY
CHANGES IN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXPECTED LOCATIONS OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY REQUIRE HIGHLIGHTS TO BE ISSUED.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO RISE AGAIN BY THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE REAMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD BUT
STILL REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

BY FRIDAY GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TREND TOWARD DRIER COLUMN
WITH PWAT VALUES FALLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND PROFILE LOOKS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AS COMPARED TO THE MOIST/SATURATED DEPICTIONS FOR MID
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING IT INTO AT LEAST THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE. WITH FORCING FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND A TREND TOWARD RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...CONVECTION COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
EVENING AND PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO COLORADO AS TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED BUT
INCREASE MARKEDLY BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN
BY MONDAY AS COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THEREFORE
UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
SOME STRATUS (MVFR) MAY DEVELOP AT KGLD WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER RH PROGGED IN THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDING IS NOT AS
SATURATED NEAR THE SURFACE AS KGLD AT THAT TIME. THE STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES
TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...FS






000
FXUS63 KDDC 290902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Updated Short Term and Long Term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A significant, excessive rainfall event appears more and more likely
across portions of southwest, west central, and south central
Kansas. lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will increase
substantially in the 00-06Z Wednesday time frame, thanks to coupling
dynamics for ascent from the exiting Midwest jet and perturbed
monsoon flow from northern Arizona rotating anticyclonically into
Colorado. There was a fairly well-defined vorticity anomaly moving
north-northeast into southern Utah, with greatest area of potential
vorticity advection (and subsequent mid-tropospheric ascent) moving
into western Colorado as of 08Z this morning. Every numerical
weather prediction we can get our hands on shows the same thing: a
swath of 2 to 5 inches of storm total QPF, with much of it falling
in the 06-18Z time frame Wednesday. The question still remains where
the important 850-750mb mean frontogenesis will set up. There has
been a slight trend to the north with the frontogenetic zone in the
GFS and now the latest 29.06Z run of the NAM12.

There are a couple things that are concerning for a flood/flash
flood threat: 1) the monsoon influence. Water vapor satellite loop
shows a fairly large area of fairly high content water vapor
(tropical in nature) all across the Desert Southwest into the
Southern Rockies and into far western Kansas. 29.00Z RAOB at Grand
Junction, CO and Albuquerque, NM both show deep tropical moisture
up above 500mb (500mb mixing ratio at or just above 4 g/kg). 2)
orientation of 750-850mb zone of frontogenesis with deep
tropospheric mean flow. The frontogenetic zone will setup in a
west-northwest to east-southeast orientation during the time frame
in question late tonight through the first half of Wednesday,
which will be nearly parallel to the 850-300mb thickness field,
which is usually a good indication of MCS motion in this
environment. Training of storms in a high-precipitation effeciency
environment is definitely a strong possibility. This will
certainly lead to some areas seeing excessive rainfall over a short
period of time. Per collaboration with AMA, OUN, and PUB, we
decided to all join in on a Flash Flood Watch. The official QPF
grids will reflect storm total amounts in excess of 2 inches over
a large portion of the area south of roughly a Scott City to
Jetmore to Pratt line. There will likely be a band or two of 4 or
even 5-inch amounts when all is said and done, but this level of
detail cannot be forecast at this time. All indications are that
the atmosphere will be capable of this excessive rainfall total,
though, and we will mention this in the Flash Flood Watch product.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Little overall change was made to the forecast elements in the days
2 and 3 timeframe with respect to the meteorological elements.
Following the models, some downward adjustment in PoPs was made for
Wednesday afternoon when convection and stratiform rain should be
winding down across south central Kansas as the mid level
frontogenetic zone weakens and moves south of the region. The GFS
advertises the highest amount of QPF, on the order of 3 to 5 inches
on Wednesday, which could easily be achievable with training storms
in this MIDLEVEL tropical relatively warm collision-coalescence
environment. The consensus of models continue to indicate cool
temperatures  in the the upper 60`s where the heaviest deep cloud
layer produces rain cooled air through the day.  Beyond Wednesday,
the region will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft with
a signal for late afternoon convection along the Palmer divide and
sangre de cristo mts, occasionally moving into extreme sw Kansas by
early evening. High temperatures should moderate through the 80s
though the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will continue through the night and into the morning
hours Tuesday, with winds increasing to 12 to 15 knots thereafter
from the south-southwest. The best precipitation chances will hold
off until Tuesday evening, and we will introduce some PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC and GCK terminals at the end of the forecast
period (Tuesday evening).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  63  68  60 /  30 100  90  50
GCK  81  63  69  57 /  30 100  90  40
EHA  77  62  72  60 /  40  90  70  40
LBL  78  63  72  61 /  30 100  90  50
HYS  84  63  73  61 /  10  60  70  30
P28  85  65  69  62 /  20  90  90  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 290902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Updated Short Term and Long Term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A significant, excessive rainfall event appears more and more likely
across portions of southwest, west central, and south central
Kansas. lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will increase
substantially in the 00-06Z Wednesday time frame, thanks to coupling
dynamics for ascent from the exiting Midwest jet and perturbed
monsoon flow from northern Arizona rotating anticyclonically into
Colorado. There was a fairly well-defined vorticity anomaly moving
north-northeast into southern Utah, with greatest area of potential
vorticity advection (and subsequent mid-tropospheric ascent) moving
into western Colorado as of 08Z this morning. Every numerical
weather prediction we can get our hands on shows the same thing: a
swath of 2 to 5 inches of storm total QPF, with much of it falling
in the 06-18Z time frame Wednesday. The question still remains where
the important 850-750mb mean frontogenesis will set up. There has
been a slight trend to the north with the frontogenetic zone in the
GFS and now the latest 29.06Z run of the NAM12.

There are a couple things that are concerning for a flood/flash
flood threat: 1) the monsoon influence. Water vapor satellite loop
shows a fairly large area of fairly high content water vapor
(tropical in nature) all across the Desert Southwest into the
Southern Rockies and into far western Kansas. 29.00Z RAOB at Grand
Junction, CO and Albuquerque, NM both show deep tropical moisture
up above 500mb (500mb mixing ratio at or just above 4 g/kg). 2)
orientation of 750-850mb zone of frontogenesis with deep
tropospheric mean flow. The frontogenetic zone will setup in a
west-northwest to east-southeast orientation during the time frame
in question late tonight through the first half of Wednesday,
which will be nearly parallel to the 850-300mb thickness field,
which is usually a good indication of MCS motion in this
environment. Training of storms in a high-precipitation effeciency
environment is definitely a strong possibility. This will
certainly lead to some areas seeing excessive rainfall over a short
period of time. Per collaboration with AMA, OUN, and PUB, we
decided to all join in on a Flash Flood Watch. The official QPF
grids will reflect storm total amounts in excess of 2 inches over
a large portion of the area south of roughly a Scott City to
Jetmore to Pratt line. There will likely be a band or two of 4 or
even 5-inch amounts when all is said and done, but this level of
detail cannot be forecast at this time. All indications are that
the atmosphere will be capable of this excessive rainfall total,
though, and we will mention this in the Flash Flood Watch product.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Little overall change was made to the forecast elements in the days
2 and 3 timeframe with respect to the meteorological elements.
Following the models, some downward adjustment in PoPs was made for
Wednesday afternoon when convection and stratiform rain should be
winding down across south central Kansas as the mid level
frontogenetic zone weakens and moves south of the region. The GFS
advertises the highest amount of QPF, on the order of 3 to 5 inches
on Wednesday, which could easily be achievable with training storms
in this MIDLEVEL tropical relatively warm collision-coalescence
environment. The consensus of models continue to indicate cool
temperatures  in the the upper 60`s where the heaviest deep cloud
layer produces rain cooled air through the day.  Beyond Wednesday,
the region will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft with
a signal for late afternoon convection along the Palmer divide and
sangre de cristo mts, occasionally moving into extreme sw Kansas by
early evening. High temperatures should moderate through the 80s
though the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will continue through the night and into the morning
hours Tuesday, with winds increasing to 12 to 15 knots thereafter
from the south-southwest. The best precipitation chances will hold
off until Tuesday evening, and we will introduce some PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC and GCK terminals at the end of the forecast
period (Tuesday evening).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  63  68  60 /  30 100  90  50
GCK  81  63  69  57 /  30 100  90  40
EHA  77  62  72  60 /  40  90  70  40
LBL  78  63  72  61 /  30 100  90  50
HYS  84  63  73  61 /  10  60  70  30
P28  85  65  69  62 /  20  90  90  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
FOR KSZ043-044-061>064-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KTOP 290841
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Scattered showers and a few embedded lightning strikes have
developed from central Nebraska into north central Kansas as of 3
AM. This precipitation is in response to a band of frontogenesis
providing a fairly narrow zone of ascent within a moist and slightly
unstable elevated layer. Since yesterday, the high resolution model
guidance (NMM, ARW, RAP, HRRR) has far out-performed other guidance
in predicting this activity...and the forecast through tonight has
relied heavily on the high-res suite of guidance. The ascent should
persist or strengthen through around 15Z while it gradually shifts
southeast along line roughly from Belleville to Manhattan to
Burlington. Then expect a weakening trend after 15Z with conditions
becoming nearly dry between 21Z and 03Z when the lift is at its
weakest. While the precipitation will be persistent on a broad
scale, the showers will be more or less scattered within the main
axis of ascent and do not expect rainfall totals to be much at
all...perhaps a few areas could see more than 0.25 inch.
Temperatures will be muted by cloud cover today, with the warmest
conditions both northeast and southwest of the previously mentioned
precip axis. Highs should top out in the upper 70s to middle 80s.

The band of frontogenesis is likely to intensify once again after
03Z along roughly the same axis. This zone of ascent should
gradually pivot and shift more toward a Concordia to Manhattan to
Ottawa line after midnight. By late in the night, additional
moisture influx into the region is expected in advance of a fairly
strong short wave trough that will move from southwest Utah this
morning into southwest Kansas tonight. Again, heavy rain is not
expected but a few areas could possibly approach 0.5 inch or more
tonight where the showers are more persistent. Low temperatures
should stay a bit warmer with persistent cloud cover, generally
ranging from the upper 50s in far northeast Kansas to the middle 60s
in east central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The aforementioned upper trough impacts portions of the CWA by
Wednesday morning. Cross sections reveal decent low to mid level
frontogenesis aiding the mid level vorticity maxima centered over
southwest Kansas. These areas expect the bulk of the precipitation
while over northeast Kansas, areas south of Interstate 70 see
optimal chances for rain showers. Precipitable water values are
fairly low given the quick invading mid level subsidence which will
help to clear out cloud cover north to south during the late afternoon.
Following consistent runs with the 4 KM WRF and the overall guidance
trends of the precip bands spreading a touch further north and east,
decided to increase pops south and add slight chances north of
Interstate 70. Mid level instability is minimal with perhaps an
isolated lightning strike. Highs Wednesday were also lowered a few
degrees based on the slightly thicker and longer duration of cloud
cover. Skies clear out Wednesday evening with surface high pressure
pushing into the region. Strong radiational cooling and calm
winds look probable for patchy fog in areas that receive rainfall.

Mostly dry north to northwest flow continues through the forecast
period with no poignant upper waves to hold high confidence on. On
Friday into Saturday, a weak front may provide additional support,
however the weak nature of the boundary combined with lacking
moisture seen on sounding profiles suggest low confidence in
initiation. With the inconsistent timing and placement, decided to
leave out mention of precipitation on Friday and Saturday to see if
any congruency in the next few runs materializes. For the latter
part of the weekend into next Monday, another upper trough dips
south over the northern plains as southerly flow increases
temperatures. After a mild week with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s, a warming trend commences with 90s possible for highs
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Recent model runs
continue to develop a narrow band of showers across the area
during the morning hours. Placement is somewhat consistent over MHK
while TOP/FOE remain on the outer edges. Thunder will be very
limited if any, and with bases around 7kft the chances of any
visibility restrictions are low. Showers should dissipate/move out
in the afternoon only to return within the vicinity of MHK later in
the evening. Those details are uncertain at this point.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KICT 290827
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR
CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF SRN CANADA FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

EXPECTING SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY...AS MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SW US
BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE.

EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SETUP...WILL BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE
DETAIL...BUT HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF WILL PROBABLY BE FROM KDDC SE
TOWARDS KOUN....WHERE BEST 850-700H FN-CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ORIENTED.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AS THIS MOISTURE
INCREASES...SO THINKING MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIP WITH RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TONIGHT INTO WED.

IN OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS FOR AREAS
SW OF KICT...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES SEEING
SOME RATHER HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS BY WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A SUSTAINED RAINFALL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS...PICKING 1 TO 2 INCHES BY WED AFTERNOON. WILL SEE LESSOR
QPF AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO....BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
SOME RAINFALL BY WED AFTERNOON.

DO NOT FORESEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS RAINFALL EVENT...AS
MOST OF THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS ALMOST 4
INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD. BUT CERTAINLY A GOOD SOAKING.

THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR
SATURDAY GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. GENERALLY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  65  72  64 /  10  60  70  30
HUTCHINSON      85  64  73  63 /  20  60  70  20
NEWTON          84  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  20
ELDORADO        85  63  74  63 /  20  50  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  64  71  65 /  10  60  80  30
RUSSELL         84  63  76  63 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      83  62  72  62 /  20  80  80  10
SALINA          86  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  10
MCPHERSON       85  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  76  65 /  10  40  50  30
CHANUTE         84  63  78  64 /  10  30  40  20
IOLA            84  62  78  64 /  20  30  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  62  77  64 /  10  40  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 290827
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR
CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF SRN CANADA FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

EXPECTING SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS LATER TODAY...AS MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SW US
BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECTING THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE.

EXPECT THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS
850-700H MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SETUP...WILL BE MORE OF A MESOSCALE
DETAIL...BUT HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF WILL PROBABLY BE FROM KDDC SE
TOWARDS KOUN....WHERE BEST 850-700H FN-CONVERGENCE WILL BE
ORIENTED.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED AS THIS MOISTURE
INCREASES...SO THINKING MORE OF A SHOWERY PRECIP WITH RUMBLES OF
THUNDER TONIGHT INTO WED.

IN OUR FORECAST AREA...EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS FOR AREAS
SW OF KICT...WITH SOME AREAS OVER HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES SEEING
SOME RATHER HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS BY WED MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BUT EXPECTING MORE OF A SUSTAINED RAINFALL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS...PICKING 1 TO 2 INCHES BY WED AFTERNOON. WILL SEE LESSOR
QPF AMOUNTS THE FURTHER NORTHEAST YOU GO....BUT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
SOME RAINFALL BY WED AFTERNOON.

DO NOT FORESEE ANY FLOODING ISSUES WITH THIS RAINFALL EVENT...AS
MOST OF THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS ALMOST 4
INCHES IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD. BUT CERTAINLY A GOOD SOAKING.

THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/
EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR
SATURDAY GIVEN THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
IN PLACE...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. GENERALLY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    84  65  72  64 /  10  60  70  30
HUTCHINSON      85  64  73  63 /  20  60  70  20
NEWTON          84  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  20
ELDORADO        85  63  74  63 /  20  50  60  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  64  71  65 /  10  60  80  30
RUSSELL         84  63  76  63 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      83  62  72  62 /  20  80  80  10
SALINA          86  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  10
MCPHERSON       85  63  75  63 /  20  50  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  76  65 /  10  40  50  30
CHANUTE         84  63  78  64 /  10  30  40  20
IOLA            84  62  78  64 /  20  30  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  62  77  64 /  10  40  50  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 290533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID LIFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST. BY 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW...AROUND
FIVE KNOTS. SO...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST WITH A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED THROUGH
18Z...THEN WILL SLOWLY DRY AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 18Z. GENERAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HELD ON TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ADVECTS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

THOUGH THERE WILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THAT AREA.

THE STRONGEST MODEL-DEPICTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER SATURDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PERIODS...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH GIVEN MODEL SPREADS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
SOME STRATUS (MVFR) MAY DEVELOP AT KGLD WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER RH PROGGED IN THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDING IS NOT AS
SATURATED NEAR THE SURFACE AS KGLD AT THAT TIME. THE STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES
TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS






000
FXUS63 KGLD 290533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID LIFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST. BY 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW...AROUND
FIVE KNOTS. SO...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST WITH A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED THROUGH
18Z...THEN WILL SLOWLY DRY AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 18Z. GENERAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HELD ON TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ADVECTS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

THOUGH THERE WILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THAT AREA.

THE STRONGEST MODEL-DEPICTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER SATURDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PERIODS...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH GIVEN MODEL SPREADS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
SOME STRATUS (MVFR) MAY DEVELOP AT KGLD WITH HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER RH PROGGED IN THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDING IS NOT AS
SATURATED NEAR THE SURFACE AS KGLD AT THAT TIME. THE STRATUS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. INCREASING CHANCES OF
THUNDERTORMS WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES
TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS







000
FXUS63 KTOP 290448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Recent model runs
continue to develop a narrow band of showers across the area
during the morning hours. Placement is somewhat consistent over MHK
while TOP/FOE remain on the outer edges. Thunder will be very
limited if any, and with bases around 7kft the chances of any
visibility restrictions are low. Showers should dissipate/move out
in the afternoon only to return within the vicinity of MHK later in
the evening. Those details are uncertain at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders









000
FXUS63 KTOP 290448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Recent model runs
continue to develop a narrow band of showers across the area
during the morning hours. Placement is somewhat consistent over MHK
while TOP/FOE remain on the outer edges. Thunder will be very
limited if any, and with bases around 7kft the chances of any
visibility restrictions are low. Showers should dissipate/move out
in the afternoon only to return within the vicinity of MHK later in
the evening. Those details are uncertain at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders









000
FXUS63 KTOP 290448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Recent model runs
continue to develop a narrow band of showers across the area
during the morning hours. Placement is somewhat consistent over MHK
while TOP/FOE remain on the outer edges. Thunder will be very
limited if any, and with bases around 7kft the chances of any
visibility restrictions are low. Showers should dissipate/move out
in the afternoon only to return within the vicinity of MHK later in
the evening. Those details are uncertain at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders









000
FXUS63 KTOP 290448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. Recent model runs
continue to develop a narrow band of showers across the area
during the morning hours. Placement is somewhat consistent over MHK
while TOP/FOE remain on the outer edges. Thunder will be very
limited if any, and with bases around 7kft the chances of any
visibility restrictions are low. Showers should dissipate/move out
in the afternoon only to return within the vicinity of MHK later in
the evening. Those details are uncertain at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders









000
FXUS63 KICT 290447
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR
KANSAS...AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS AND KEEPS THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER NEAR MONTANA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED THEREFORE THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE SPREADS SOUTHWARD
PUSHING THE ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE. SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. GENERALLY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  74 /  10  10  60  70
HUTCHINSON      63  85  64  75 /  10  20  60  70
NEWTON          62  84  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
ELDORADO        62  85  63  75 /   0  10  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  64  73 /  10  10  60  80
RUSSELL         62  84  63  79 /  10  20  60  60
GREAT BEND      62  83  62  76 /  10  20  80  80
SALINA          63  86  64  79 /  10  10  40  50
MCPHERSON       63  85  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
CHANUTE         60  84  63  78 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            60  84  62  78 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    60  85  62  77 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 290447
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR
KANSAS...AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS AND KEEPS THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER NEAR MONTANA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED THEREFORE THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE SPREADS SOUTHWARD
PUSHING THE ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE. SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WITH LOWER MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
FORECAST. GENERALLY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  74 /  10  10  60  70
HUTCHINSON      63  85  64  75 /  10  20  60  70
NEWTON          62  84  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
ELDORADO        62  85  63  75 /   0  10  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  64  73 /  10  10  60  80
RUSSELL         62  84  63  79 /  10  20  60  60
GREAT BEND      62  83  62  76 /  10  20  80  80
SALINA          63  86  64  79 /  10  10  40  50
MCPHERSON       63  85  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
CHANUTE         60  84  63  78 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            60  84  62  78 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    60  85  62  77 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 290438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will continue through the night and into the morning
hours Tuesday, with winds increasing to 12 to 15 knots thereafter
from the south-southwest. The best precipitation chances will hold
off until Tuesday evening, and we will introduce some PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC and GCK terminals at the end of the forecast
period (Tuesday evening).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  78  63  70 /  10  50  90  90
GCK  61  77  63  69 /  10  40  90  90
EHA  63  79  62  73 /  20  60  90  70
LBL  64  78  63  71 /  20  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  64  83  65  70 /  10  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 290438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will continue through the night and into the morning
hours Tuesday, with winds increasing to 12 to 15 knots thereafter
from the south-southwest. The best precipitation chances will hold
off until Tuesday evening, and we will introduce some PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC and GCK terminals at the end of the forecast
period (Tuesday evening).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  78  63  70 /  10  50  90  90
GCK  61  77  63  69 /  10  40  90  90
EHA  63  79  62  73 /  20  60  90  70
LBL  64  78  63  71 /  20  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  64  83  65  70 /  10  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 290438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will continue through the night and into the morning
hours Tuesday, with winds increasing to 12 to 15 knots thereafter
from the south-southwest. The best precipitation chances will hold
off until Tuesday evening, and we will introduce some PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC and GCK terminals at the end of the forecast
period (Tuesday evening).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  78  63  70 /  10  50  90  90
GCK  61  77  63  69 /  10  40  90  90
EHA  63  79  62  73 /  20  60  90  70
LBL  64  78  63  71 /  20  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  64  83  65  70 /  10  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 290438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will continue through the night and into the morning
hours Tuesday, with winds increasing to 12 to 15 knots thereafter
from the south-southwest. The best precipitation chances will hold
off until Tuesday evening, and we will introduce some PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC and GCK terminals at the end of the forecast
period (Tuesday evening).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  78  63  70 /  10  50  90  90
GCK  61  77  63  69 /  10  40  90  90
EHA  63  79  62  73 /  20  60  90  70
LBL  64  78  63  71 /  20  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  64  83  65  70 /  10  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KICT 282352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR
KANSAS...AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS AND KEEPS THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER NEAR MONTANA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED THEREFORE THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE SPREADS SOUTHWARD
PUSHING THE ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE. SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OVER NEBRASKA...CHANGING LIGHT WINDS FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST OR AFTER. THUS HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  74 /  10  10  60  70
HUTCHINSON      63  85  64  75 /  10  20  60  70
NEWTON          62  84  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
ELDORADO        62  85  63  75 /   0  10  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  64  73 /  10  10  60  80
RUSSELL         62  84  63  79 /  10  20  60  60
GREAT BEND      62  83  62  76 /  10  20  80  80
SALINA          63  86  64  79 /  10  10  40  50
MCPHERSON       63  85  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
CHANUTE         60  84  63  78 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            60  84  62  78 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    60  85  62  77 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 282352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR
KANSAS...AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS AND KEEPS THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER NEAR MONTANA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED THEREFORE THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE SPREADS SOUTHWARD
PUSHING THE ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE. SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLIDING OVER NEBRASKA...CHANGING LIGHT WINDS FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST OR AFTER. THUS HAVE LEFT MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  74 /  10  10  60  70
HUTCHINSON      63  85  64  75 /  10  20  60  70
NEWTON          62  84  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
ELDORADO        62  85  63  75 /   0  10  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  64  73 /  10  10  60  80
RUSSELL         62  84  63  79 /  10  20  60  60
GREAT BEND      62  83  62  76 /  10  20  80  80
SALINA          63  86  64  79 /  10  10  40  50
MCPHERSON       63  85  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
CHANUTE         60  84  63  78 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            60  84  62  78 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    60  85  62  77 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 282336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID LIFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST. BY 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW...AROUND
FIVE KNOTS. SO...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST WITH A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED THROUGH
18Z...THEN WILL SLOWLY DRY AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 18Z. GENERAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HELD ON TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ADVECTS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

THOUGH THERE WILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THAT AREA.

THE STRONGEST MODEL-DEPICTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER SATURDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PERIODS...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH GIVEN MODEL SPREADS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT BOTH SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS






000
FXUS63 KGLD 282336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID LIFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST. BY 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW...AROUND
FIVE KNOTS. SO...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST WITH A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED THROUGH
18Z...THEN WILL SLOWLY DRY AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 18Z. GENERAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HELD ON TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ADVECTS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

THOUGH THERE WILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THAT AREA.

THE STRONGEST MODEL-DEPICTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER SATURDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PERIODS...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH GIVEN MODEL SPREADS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT BOTH SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS






000
FXUS63 KGLD 282336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID LIFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST. BY 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW...AROUND
FIVE KNOTS. SO...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST WITH A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED THROUGH
18Z...THEN WILL SLOWLY DRY AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 18Z. GENERAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HELD ON TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ADVECTS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

THOUGH THERE WILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THAT AREA.

THE STRONGEST MODEL-DEPICTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER SATURDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PERIODS...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH GIVEN MODEL SPREADS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT BOTH SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS






000
FXUS63 KGLD 282336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID LIFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST. BY 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW...AROUND
FIVE KNOTS. SO...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST WITH A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED THROUGH
18Z...THEN WILL SLOWLY DRY AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 18Z. GENERAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HELD ON TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ADVECTS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

THOUGH THERE WILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THAT AREA.

THE STRONGEST MODEL-DEPICTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER SATURDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PERIODS...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH GIVEN MODEL SPREADS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KGLD AND
KMCK. HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH LOCATIONS TONIGHT. HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT BOTH SITES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...FS






000
FXUS63 KTOP 282327
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Scattered rain
showers could move towards the taf sites during the early morning
hours especially at MHK. The rain should remain light with no
significant impacts. Thunder appears to be very limited at this
time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 282327
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Scattered rain
showers could move towards the taf sites during the early morning
hours especially at MHK. The rain should remain light with no
significant impacts. Thunder appears to be very limited at this
time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 282327
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Scattered rain
showers could move towards the taf sites during the early morning
hours especially at MHK. The rain should remain light with no
significant impacts. Thunder appears to be very limited at this
time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KTOP 282327
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period. Scattered rain
showers could move towards the taf sites during the early morning
hours especially at MHK. The rain should remain light with no
significant impacts. Thunder appears to be very limited at this
time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KDDC 282308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR ceilings at 5000 to 10000ft AGL will gradually develop after
midnight as moisture and isentropic lift develops over western
Kansas in the 800mb to 600mb level. This cloud cover will linger
across western Kansas through the day on Tuesday. Light south to
southeast winds will increase after daybreak on Tuesday to around
15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  78  63  70 /  20  50  90  90
GCK  64  77  63  69 /  20  40  90  90
EHA  65  79  62  73 /  30  60  90  70
LBL  65  78  63  71 /  30  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  66  83  65  70 /  20  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 282308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR ceilings at 5000 to 10000ft AGL will gradually develop after
midnight as moisture and isentropic lift develops over western
Kansas in the 800mb to 600mb level. This cloud cover will linger
across western Kansas through the day on Tuesday. Light south to
southeast winds will increase after daybreak on Tuesday to around
15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  78  63  70 /  20  50  90  90
GCK  64  77  63  69 /  20  40  90  90
EHA  65  79  62  73 /  30  60  90  70
LBL  65  78  63  71 /  30  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  66  83  65  70 /  20  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KDDC 282038
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
338 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  78  63  70 /  20  50  90  90
GCK  64  77  63  69 /  20  40  90  90
EHA  64  78  63  74 /  40  60  90  70
LBL  65  78  63  71 /  40  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  66  83  65  70 /  20  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...DR/GLD






000
FXUS63 KDDC 282035
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  78  63  70 /  20  50  90  90
GCK  64  77  63  69 /  20  40  90  90
EHA  64  78  63  74 /  40  60  90  70
LBL  65  78  63  71 /  40  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  66  83  65  70 /  20  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...DR/GLD






000
FXUS63 KDDC 282035
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN US. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
SW KANSAS. MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND
OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NW KANSAS WHERE A CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED...HOWEVER
SUBSIDENCE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
INHIBITING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

LATEST GUIDANCE HAS REALLY TRENDED BACK ON PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND OTHER THAN MAYBE THE FAR
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE DDC CWA...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ANYTHING
WILL MANAGE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. RAP ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUILDING IN THE WEST AND
THIS...ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE IN SE COLORADO COULD
HELP AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SO I LEFT POPS
CONFINED TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. BY LATE TONIGHT PRECIP
SIGNAL INCREASES OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE WITH GOOD WAA/OVERRUNNING COULD
SUPPORT BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SO I REDUCED POPS IN THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT I DID KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND COMBINE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WITH GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
HITTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH BEST PRECIP...I ONLY MADE
MINOR CHANGES AND KEPT HEAVY RAIN/FREQUENT LIGHTING WORDING IN
PLACE. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO PULL A TRIGGER ON A FLOOD WATCH
CONSIDERING THE EVENT MAY BE MORE PROLONGED AND THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

DUE TO THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE PATTERN OVER THE US WITH PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ZEROING IN ON INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NW FLOW IS DIFFICULT CONSIDERING MODEL
SPREAD AT THIS RANGE. MOST OF THESE FEATURES ARE FAIRLY WEAK...SO WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT SMALLER SCALE INFLUENCES HAVING A LARGER IMPACT
ON DAY TO DAY PRECIP CHANCES AND AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WITHOUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE OR A BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS I LEANED FORECAST HEAVILY ON CONSENSUS
SOLUTION...WHICH DOES KEEP 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MAINLY IN THE WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. ON PERIODS WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THEY ARE MAINLY CONFINED IN THE WESTERN CWA WHICH MATCHES
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO (OR PERSISTENT TROUGH AXIS) AND MOVING DOWNSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  78  63  70 /  20  50  90  90
GCK  64  77  63  69 /  20  40  90  90
EHA  64  78  63  74 /  40  60  90  70
LBL  65  78  63  71 /  40  70  90  90
HYS  62  85  63  78 /  10  30  70  70
P28  66  83  65  70 /  20  40  90  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR/GLD
LONG TERM...DR/GLD
AVIATION...DR/GLD







000
FXUS63 KGLD 282015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID LIFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST. BY 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW...AROUND
FIVE KNOTS. SO...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST WITH A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED THROUGH
18Z...THEN WILL SLOWLY DRY AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 18Z. GENERAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HELD ON TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ADVECTS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

THOUGH THERE WILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THAT AREA.

THE STRONGEST MODEL-DEPICTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER SATURDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PERIODS...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH GIVEN MODEL SPREADS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

KGLD...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST BY
20Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND FL060. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH S-SE SURFACE WINDS.

KMCK...VFR. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND FL060 THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...DLF







000
FXUS63 KGLD 282015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PRODUCE DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO AID LIFT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST. BY 06Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW...AROUND
FIVE KNOTS. SO...WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING IN THE FORECAST WITH A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF.

WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED THROUGH
18Z...THEN WILL SLOWLY DRY AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. WILL INDICATE HIGH POPS IN THE MORNING WITH DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN AFTER 18Z. GENERAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 IS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES. HOWEVER...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
TO RECEIVE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL UNDER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND COOL 850 MB TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...HELD ON TO A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN DECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ADVECTS DRIER AIR TO THE AREA.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

THOUGH THERE WILL A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT
THE AIR MASS TO BECOME UNSTABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THAT AREA.

THE STRONGEST MODEL-DEPICTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER SATURDAY...LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER AND DRIER ECMWF. CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER PERIODS...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH GIVEN MODEL SPREADS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

KGLD...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST BY
20Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND FL060. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH S-SE SURFACE WINDS.

KMCK...VFR. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND FL060 THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...DLF






000
FXUS63 KGLD 281958
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

KGLD...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST BY
20Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND FL060. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH S-SE SURFACE WINDS.

KMCK...VFR. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND FL060 THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF







000
FXUS63 KGLD 281958
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CWA LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO NE COLORADO AND FAR NW KANSAS
GENERALLY WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO KANORADO TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE.
0-6 KM MEAN FLOW IS ONLY ABOUT 5-10 KTS SO ANY CELLS WONT MAKE TOO
MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATION OF BETTER POPS ARE
BASED ON LOCATION OF DEVELOPING CU FIELD AND TO SOME EXTENT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR. A BRIEF SHOWER ALREADY POPPED UP AND
DISSIPATED OVER YUMA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REMOVED POPS FOR SOUTHWEST AREAS /GREELEY-WICHITA/ AND
KEPT EAST DRY AS BEFORE. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES IS FINALLY THINNING BUT IT HAS KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH TRIBUNE ONLY AT 73 DEGREES AT 1 PM MDT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THIS AREA WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY AFTERNOON
REDEVELOPMENT.

ALL MODELS SHOW DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY AND REALLY DONT BRING BIG QPF INTO
THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY BASED ON LATEST
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND RAMPED THINGS UP MORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIS...KEPT TUESDAY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST COUNTIES TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

KGLD...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST BY
20Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND FL060. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH S-SE SURFACE WINDS.

KMCK...VFR. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND FL060 THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF






000
FXUS63 KTOP 281949
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281949
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281949
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281949
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows the center of a mid level ridge over
the central Rockies with a broad mid level trough from the northern
MS river to New England. This leaves northwest flow over the central
plains with no obvious wave within the flow. At the surface, an
elongated ridge of high pressure stretched from the southern plains
to the Canadian boarder.

For tonight and Tuesday, the forecast area is expected to remain
under the northwest flow pattern and models continue to show little
signs of a discrete wave moving through the flow. However there are
some signals of mid level frontogenesis developing over north
central KS late tonight. The NAM has been hinting at some light
shower activity for a couple runs now and the RAP and ECMWF seem to
have joined the NAM in developing some light QPF along the axis of
mid level frontogenesis. Deep moisture remains somewhat limited, but
there does appear to be enough mid level moisture for some minor
accumulations. Because of this have expanded the area of slight
chance POPs and increased sky cover through the day Tuesday. The
models show relatively shallow 700-500MB lapse rates around 5C/km,
so think thunder is an outside possibility at best. At this point
the forecast anticipates some high based shower activity across
north central KS by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday possibly spreading
into northeast KS through morning and into the early afternoon. With
the mid level clouds expected to increase overnight, have trended
min temps up a couple degrees across north central KS. If clouds
move in faster and further east, the min temp forecast may be a
little cool across eastern KS. Highs Tuesday could be a little
tricky if clouds break out for the afternoon and insolation
increases. For now have highs in the lower 80s where it is expected
to be mostly cloudy and mid 80s where the could be a little more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Northeastern sections of the state will continue to be on the
northeast edge of the moisture and lift associated with the upper
wave (in the Great Basin today) rotating around the ridge for the
mid week periods. There remains enough suggestions of passing though
not deep areas of frontogenesis and moisture present for chances for
precipitation Tuesday night into at least the early portions of
Wednesday, but by late Wednesday, northerly mid level winds return
to dry the column. Precipitation chances will remain low, but can
see a situation where a few narrow bands of weak convection develop
and could be rather stationary, resulting in a wet period for some
locations. Very elevated nature of precipitation should keep any
amounts light. Highs Wednesday should be coolest nearer the
anticipated better coverage of precipitation in southern areas,
possibly staying below 80. With clearing skies and light winds, will
need to watch for fog potential Wednesday night.  Thursday brings
clearer skies through much of the day with slightly warmer temps.

Despite the continued northwest to north flow aloft, models continue
to produce somewhat random areas of precipitation for much of the
later periods. There fairly good agreement with weak low pressure
moving into eastern Nebraska Friday and on south into eastern Kansas
Saturday and there could be enough convergence resulting for
isolated convection, but instability will continue to be rather
limited. Will maintain small chances for Saturday at this point.
Expect general slow rises in temperatures with time, but still a
touch below early August norms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KICT 281937
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR
KANSAS...AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS AND KEEPS THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER NEAR MONTANA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED THEREFORE THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE SPREADS SOUTHWARD
PUSHING THE ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE. SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  74 /  10  10  60  70
HUTCHINSON      63  85  64  75 /  10  20  60  70
NEWTON          62  84  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
ELDORADO        62  85  63  75 /   0  10  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  64  73 /  10  10  60  80
RUSSELL         62  84  63  79 /  10  20  60  60
GREAT BEND      62  83  62  76 /  10  20  80  80
SALINA          63  86  64  79 /  10  10  40  50
MCPHERSON       63  85  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
CHANUTE         60  84  63  78 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            60  84  62  78 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    60  85  62  77 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 281937
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR
KANSAS...AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS AND KEEPS THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER NEAR MONTANA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED THEREFORE THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE SPREADS SOUTHWARD
PUSHING THE ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE. SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  74 /  10  10  60  70
HUTCHINSON      63  85  64  75 /  10  20  60  70
NEWTON          62  84  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
ELDORADO        62  85  63  75 /   0  10  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  64  73 /  10  10  60  80
RUSSELL         62  84  63  79 /  10  20  60  60
GREAT BEND      62  83  62  76 /  10  20  80  80
SALINA          63  86  64  79 /  10  10  40  50
MCPHERSON       63  85  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
CHANUTE         60  84  63  78 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            60  84  62  78 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    60  85  62  77 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 281937
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR
KANSAS...AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS AND KEEPS THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER NEAR MONTANA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED THEREFORE THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE SPREADS SOUTHWARD
PUSHING THE ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE. SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  74 /  10  10  60  70
HUTCHINSON      63  85  64  75 /  10  20  60  70
NEWTON          62  84  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
ELDORADO        62  85  63  75 /   0  10  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  64  73 /  10  10  60  80
RUSSELL         62  84  63  79 /  10  20  60  60
GREAT BEND      62  83  62  76 /  10  20  80  80
SALINA          63  86  64  79 /  10  10  40  50
MCPHERSON       63  85  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
CHANUTE         60  84  63  78 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            60  84  62  78 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    60  85  62  77 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 281937
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK FOR
KANSAS...AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAINTAINS AND KEEPS THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER NEAR MONTANA. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN ITS SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED THEREFORE THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC DOWN GLIDE SPREADS SOUTHWARD
PUSHING THE ACTIVITY INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER EXPECTED...LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR KANSAS THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS POSITIONED
OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH NORTHERLY/EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
KEEPING MODIFIED COOLER AIR IN PLACE. SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNAL
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  84  65  74 /  10  10  60  70
HUTCHINSON      63  85  64  75 /  10  20  60  70
NEWTON          62  84  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
ELDORADO        62  85  63  75 /   0  10  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  84  64  73 /  10  10  60  80
RUSSELL         62  84  63  79 /  10  20  60  60
GREAT BEND      62  83  62  76 /  10  20  80  80
SALINA          63  86  64  79 /  10  10  40  50
MCPHERSON       63  85  63  76 /  10  10  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  76 /   0  10  30  50
CHANUTE         60  84  63  78 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            60  84  62  78 /   0   0  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    60  85  62  77 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 281749
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AT PRESENT TIME UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND
WESTERN COLORADO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PLUME OF 700-300 MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FORECAST TO NUDGE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA BY DAYS END
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE TIED TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.50-1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH STORM
MOTIONS 10 MPH OR LESS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 60 TO 65 TONIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WITH THE VORT MAX
WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH STORM
MOTIONS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN TO WATCH IS THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST MUCH
SOONER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE 700-300 MOISTURE
PLUME SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING TO PERHAPS VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN REDUCING THE THREAT. HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER
WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

KGLD...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST BY
20Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND FL060. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH S-SE SURFACE WINDS.

KMCK...VFR. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND FL060 THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF









000
FXUS63 KGLD 281749
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AT PRESENT TIME UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND
WESTERN COLORADO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PLUME OF 700-300 MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FORECAST TO NUDGE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA BY DAYS END
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE TIED TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.50-1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH STORM
MOTIONS 10 MPH OR LESS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 60 TO 65 TONIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WITH THE VORT MAX
WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH STORM
MOTIONS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN TO WATCH IS THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST MUCH
SOONER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE 700-300 MOISTURE
PLUME SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING TO PERHAPS VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN REDUCING THE THREAT. HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER
WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

KGLD...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTHEAST BY
20Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP AROUND FL060. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WITH S-SE SURFACE WINDS.

KMCK...VFR. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND FL060 THIS AFTERNOON OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DLF










000
FXUS63 KDDC 281736
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

  ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO
BACKDOOR INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES BEHIND YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE (WHICH WAS NOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA) WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY COOL BY LATE JULY STANDARDS (UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
+20C). THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY, SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 83F RANGE. ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY WHERE MORE ABUNDANT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED.
WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH POPS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS THE 850-700MB
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED, LEADING TO MORE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
BOTH SUGGEST A RAMP-UP IN PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME, AND POPS WILL SHOW AN INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD MUCH COOLER AND WET IS IN PLACE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY MODERATING, BUT
GENERALLY COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. REMARKABLE CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT
APPEARS IN THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS IN THE DAYS 2-3 TIME FRAME
(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY). AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IS FLATTENED OUT BY THE UPPER JET, A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN GENERAL BY SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS KANSAS. MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION ONGOING OR DEVELOPING
AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IDEA/SOLUTION HAS GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE GFS/ECMWF AND NAM
MODELS, WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES. STRATIFORM RAINS WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED BY S VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN BECOME THE MAIN
CONCERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHICH AGAIN THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD WERE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF THE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT. WITH THIS PATTERN SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE AS
MUCH OF A THREAT AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED  SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AND
MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE MODEL CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60`S F THROUGH THE DAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THOUGH THE DAY WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A SLOW MODERATION BACK INTO THE
80S, WHICH ARE STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
AUGUST. CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD
AS MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME MORE MUDDLED, HOWEVER WEAKLY STEERED
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE REGION SHOULD BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERRODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  64  75  62 /  20  80  80  90
GCK  84  64  75  61 /  20  80  80  90
EHA  79  65  80  61 /  60  40  70  90
LBL  80  65  76  62 /  20  60  70 100
HYS  89  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  90  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...DR/GLD







000
FXUS63 KDDC 281736
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

  ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO
BACKDOOR INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES BEHIND YESTERDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE (WHICH WAS NOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA) WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY COOL BY LATE JULY STANDARDS (UPPER TEENS TO AROUND
+20C). THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE, MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY, SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80 TO 83F RANGE. ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY WHERE MORE ABUNDANT INSOLATION IS EXPECTED.
WE WILL KEEP SOME LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH POPS INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AS THE 850-700MB
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED, LEADING TO MORE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. 30 TO 40 POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
BOTH SUGGEST A RAMP-UP IN PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME, AND POPS WILL SHOW AN INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUING TO INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A CONTINUED TREND TOWARD MUCH COOLER AND WET IS IN PLACE FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY MODERATING, BUT
GENERALLY COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. REMARKABLE CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT
APPEARS IN THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS IN THE DAYS 2-3 TIME FRAME
(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY). AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
IS FLATTENED OUT BY THE UPPER JET, A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN GENERAL BY SPECIFICALLY
ACROSS KANSAS. MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION ONGOING OR DEVELOPING
AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THIS IDEA/SOLUTION HAS GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE GFS/ECMWF AND NAM
MODELS, WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES. STRATIFORM RAINS WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INDUCED BY S VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN BECOME THE MAIN
CONCERN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHICH AGAIN THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD WERE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF THE
RAW MODEL OUTPUT. WITH THIS PATTERN SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE AS
MUCH OF A THREAT AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED  SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY AND
MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY WHERE THE MODEL CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 60`S F THROUGH THE DAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THOUGH THE DAY WILL PROMOTE STRATUS AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A SLOW MODERATION BACK INTO THE
80S, WHICH ARE STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
AUGUST. CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN THIS PERIOD
AS MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME MORE MUDDLED, HOWEVER WEAKLY STEERED
STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE REGION SHOULD BE A DAILY
OCCURRENCE AS DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL, WITH CIGS 10KFT AGL BEGINNING TO
ERRODE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. ELEVATED FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER COLORADO, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER
EAST AND NORTH. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SOUTH OF KDDC, KGCK, AND KHYS TERMINALS. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, SO I
ADDED VCSH MENTION. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING WINDS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  64  75  62 /  20  80  80  90
GCK  84  64  75  61 /  20  80  80  90
EHA  79  65  80  61 /  60  40  70  90
LBL  80  65  76  62 /  20  60  70 100
HYS  89  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  90  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...DR/GLD








000
FXUS63 KICT 281724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG TROUGH AGAIN
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER DRIER AIR.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NEAR OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE
AND ITS PROGRESSION BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE A
SHARP CUTOFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KS
AND THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BRINGING BACK MOISTURE SOONER...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY TUE MORNING.
THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS SW OF A KRSL TO KWLD LINE FOR TUES AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. NOT
ALOT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO
THINKING MORE OF A SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  COULD SEE THE
SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS SW OF KICT...FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME FOR TUE NIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS BY WED MORNING.

THINK THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RATHER RAINY AND GREY DAY FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR WED.

THE RAINY/CLOUDY DAY ON WED WILL ALSO LEAD TO MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.  NAM/WRF EVEN KEEPS SOME AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IN THE UPPER 60S...SO WILL TREND TEMPS FOR WED DOWN SOME
WITH THIS IN MIND.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THU INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL....AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  65  85  65 /  10  10  40  60
HUTCHINSON      86  64  85  64 /  10  10  30  50
NEWTON          85  63  84  63 /  10  10  20  40
ELDORADO        85  63  85  63 /  10   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  65  85  64 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         86  63  85  63 /  10  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      86  63  84  62 /  10  10  50  60
SALINA          87  64  86  64 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       86  64  85  63 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     84  62  86  63 /  10   0  20  30
CHANUTE         84  61  85  63 /  10   0  10  20
IOLA            83  61  84  62 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  61  85  62 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 281724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG TROUGH AGAIN
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER DRIER AIR.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NEAR OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE
AND ITS PROGRESSION BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE A
SHARP CUTOFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KS
AND THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BRINGING BACK MOISTURE SOONER...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY TUE MORNING.
THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS SW OF A KRSL TO KWLD LINE FOR TUES AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. NOT
ALOT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO
THINKING MORE OF A SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  COULD SEE THE
SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS SW OF KICT...FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME FOR TUE NIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS BY WED MORNING.

THINK THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RATHER RAINY AND GREY DAY FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR WED.

THE RAINY/CLOUDY DAY ON WED WILL ALSO LEAD TO MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.  NAM/WRF EVEN KEEPS SOME AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IN THE UPPER 60S...SO WILL TREND TEMPS FOR WED DOWN SOME
WITH THIS IN MIND.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THU INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL....AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THRU
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  65  85  65 /  10  10  40  60
HUTCHINSON      86  64  85  64 /  10  10  30  50
NEWTON          85  63  84  63 /  10  10  20  40
ELDORADO        85  63  85  63 /  10   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  65  85  64 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         86  63  85  63 /  10  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      86  63  84  62 /  10  10  50  60
SALINA          87  64  86  64 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       86  64  85  63 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     84  62  86  63 /  10   0  20  30
CHANUTE         84  61  85  63 /  10   0  10  20
IOLA            83  61  84  62 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  61  85  62 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281654
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 MB frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters





000
FXUS63 KTOP 281654
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 MB frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Relatively dry air from surface ridging should allow VFR
conditions to prevail. Models hinting at mid level frontogenesis
and light showers overnight, but chances appear to be to small to
mention in the forecast at this time. With limited elevated
instability, impacts from any precip would appear to be minor.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281159
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
659 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light surface winds will influence the area this afternoon in
response to high pressure sinking southward through the Central
Plains. Broken cloud decks will however remain in the VFR category.
A band of widely scattered showers will extend north to south at
around 50sm west of the GCK terminal for a few hours this morning.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  64  75  62 /  10  80  80  90
GCK  86  64  75  61 /  10  80  80  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70  90
LBL  83  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  87  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell






000
FXUS63 KDDC 281159
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
659 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light surface winds will influence the area this afternoon in
response to high pressure sinking southward through the Central
Plains. Broken cloud decks will however remain in the VFR category.
A band of widely scattered showers will extend north to south at
around 50sm west of the GCK terminal for a few hours this morning.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  64  75  62 /  10  80  80  90
GCK  86  64  75  61 /  10  80  80  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70  90
LBL  83  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  87  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell






000
FXUS63 KDDC 281159
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
659 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light surface winds will influence the area this afternoon in
response to high pressure sinking southward through the Central
Plains. Broken cloud decks will however remain in the VFR category.
A band of widely scattered showers will extend north to south at
around 50sm west of the GCK terminal for a few hours this morning.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  64  75  62 /  10  80  80  90
GCK  86  64  75  61 /  10  80  80  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70  90
LBL  83  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  87  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell






000
FXUS63 KDDC 281159
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
659 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light surface winds will influence the area this afternoon in
response to high pressure sinking southward through the Central
Plains. Broken cloud decks will however remain in the VFR category.
A band of widely scattered showers will extend north to south at
around 50sm west of the GCK terminal for a few hours this morning.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  64  75  62 /  10  80  80  90
GCK  86  64  75  61 /  10  80  80  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70  90
LBL  83  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  87  63  82  62 /  10  30  50  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50  80  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell






000
FXUS63 KTOP 281131
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 mb frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with north winds
in the 10-15 kt range for much of the daylight hours. There is a
very small chance for -SHRA at MHK after 09Z, and a very small
chance for shallow fog at TOP after 06Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KICT 281103
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG TROUGH AGAIN
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER DRIER AIR.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NEAR OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE
AND ITS PROGRESSION BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE A
SHARP CUTOFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KS
AND THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BRINGING BACK MOISTURE SOONER...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY TUE MORNING.
THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS SW OF A KRSL TO KWLD LINE FOR TUES AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. NOT
ALOT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO
THINKING MORE OF A SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  COULD SEE THE
SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS SW OF KICT...FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME FOR TUE NIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS BY WED MORNING.

THINK THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RATHER RAINY AND GREY DAY FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR WED.

THE RAINY/CLOUDY DAY ON WED WILL ALSO LEAD TO MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.  NAM/WRF EVEN KEEPS SOME AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IN THE UPPER 60S...SO WILL TREND TEMPS FOR WED DOWN SOME
WITH THIS IN MIND.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THU INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL....AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDINESS PERSISTING.
CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24-HR PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 01-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  65  85  65 /  10  10  40  60
HUTCHINSON      86  64  85  64 /  10  10  30  50
NEWTON          85  63  84  63 /  10  10  20  40
ELDORADO        85  63  85  63 /  10   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  65  85  64 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         86  63  85  63 /  10  20  30  40
GREAT BEND      86  63  84  62 /  10  20  50  60
SALINA          87  64  86  64 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       86  64  85  63 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     84  62  86  63 /  10   0  20  30
CHANUTE         84  61  85  63 /  10   0  10  20
IOLA            83  61  84  62 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  61  85  62 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 281103
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG TROUGH AGAIN
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER DRIER AIR.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NEAR OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE
AND ITS PROGRESSION BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE A
SHARP CUTOFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KS
AND THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BRINGING BACK MOISTURE SOONER...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY TUE MORNING.
THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS SW OF A KRSL TO KWLD LINE FOR TUES AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. NOT
ALOT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO
THINKING MORE OF A SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  COULD SEE THE
SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS SW OF KICT...FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME FOR TUE NIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS BY WED MORNING.

THINK THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RATHER RAINY AND GREY DAY FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR WED.

THE RAINY/CLOUDY DAY ON WED WILL ALSO LEAD TO MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.  NAM/WRF EVEN KEEPS SOME AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IN THE UPPER 60S...SO WILL TREND TEMPS FOR WED DOWN SOME
WITH THIS IN MIND.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THU INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL....AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVELS CLOUDINESS PERSISTING.
CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24-HR PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 01-03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  65  85  65 /  10  10  40  60
HUTCHINSON      86  64  85  64 /  10  10  30  50
NEWTON          85  63  84  63 /  10  10  20  40
ELDORADO        85  63  85  63 /  10   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  65  85  64 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         86  63  85  63 /  10  20  30  40
GREAT BEND      86  63  84  62 /  10  20  50  60
SALINA          87  64  86  64 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       86  64  85  63 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     84  62  86  63 /  10   0  20  30
CHANUTE         84  61  85  63 /  10   0  10  20
IOLA            83  61  84  62 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  61  85  62 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 280847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Short Term and Long Term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  64  75  62 /  10  80  90  90
GCK  85  64  75  61 /  10  80  90  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70 100
LBL  82  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  85  63  82  62 /  10  30  30  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50 100  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 280847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated Short Term and Long Term sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Lower tropospheric ridging will continue to prevail across the
Central Plains today with a secondary cold front attempting to
backdoor into central Nebraska and northeastern Kansas. 850mb
temperatures behind yesterday`s frontal passage (which was now
centered across the Texas Panhandle into southern Oklahoma) will
remain fairly cool by late July standards (upper teens to around
+20C). The high temperature forecast for today will be a bit of a
challenge, mainly across far southwest Kansas where lingering
showers and clouds will likely persist through midday, supporting
afternoon highs in the 80 to 83F range. Elsewhere, afternoon
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s, especially north
and east of Dodge City where more abundant insolation is expected.
We will keep some low Chance POPs across far southwest Kansas this
afternoon, with POPs increasing late tonight as the 850-700mb
frontogenetic zone becomes better established, leading to more
precipitation development. 30 to 40 POPs will be confined to areas
generally along/west of Highway 283. Global and mesoscale models
both suggest a ramp-up in precipitation signal in the 06-12Z time
frame, and POPs will show an increase toward daybreak Tuesday with
the frontogenesis continuing to increase.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A continued trend toward much cooler and wet is in place for the
beginning of the extended period, followed by moderating, but
generally cooler than climatological normals continuing through the
latter half of the extended. Remarkable continuity and agreement
appears in the global and mesoscale models in the days 2-3 time frame
(Tuesday and Wednesday). As the upper high over the southern Rockies
is flattened out by the upper jet, a strengthening mid level
baroclinic zone over the central Plains in general by specifically
across Kansas. Models indicate convection ongoing or developing
around 12 UTC Tuesday, spreading east through the morning hours.
This idea/solution has good agreement across the GFS/ECMWF and NAM
models, with only minor differences. Stratiform rains with
scattered/numerous thunderstorms induced by s vigorous shortwave
moving though the baroclinic zone should then become the main
concern by Tuesday night and early Wednesday, which again the models
are in good agreement on spatially and temporally. PoPs for this
period were significantly increased following the consensus of the
raw model output. With this pattern severe weather may not be as
much of a threat as frequent lightning and moderate to heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be impacted  significantly Tuesday and
more so on Wednesday where the model consensus temperatures remain in
the upper 60`s F through the day for a large portion of the
southwest Kansas. Moderate to heavy rainfall followed by light
easterly upslope flow though the day will promote stratus after the
precipitation ends.

The remainder of the week will see a slow moderation back into the
80s, which are still on the cool side of climatology for early
August. Convection is much more difficult to forecast in this period
as mesoscale features become more muddled, however weakly steered
storms moving out of the front range region should be a daily
occurrence as deep northwest flow remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  64  75  62 /  10  80  90  90
GCK  85  64  75  61 /  10  80  90  90
EHA  81  65  80  61 /  30  40  70 100
LBL  82  65  76  62 /  30  60  70 100
HYS  85  63  82  62 /  10  30  30  50
P28  89  66  79  63 /  10  50 100  90

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KGLD 280835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AT PRESENT TIME UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND
WESTERN COLORADO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PLUME OF 700-300 MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FORECAST TO NUDGE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA BY DAYS END
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE TIED TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.50-1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH STORM
MOTIONS 10 MPH OR LESS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 60 TO 65 TONIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WITH THE VORT MAX
WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH STORM
MOTIONS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN TO WATCH IS THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST MUCH
SOONER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE 700-300 MOISTURE
PLUME SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING TO PERHAPS VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN REDUCING THE THREAT. HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER
WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

KGLD...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING WITH 15-17KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 25KTS IN THE
17Z-22Z TIME FRAME. FOR TONIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
8-10KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT PRESENT TIME.

KMCK...LIGHT EAST WIND AROUND 5KTS TAF TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BACKING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS63 KGLD 280835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AT PRESENT TIME UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND
WESTERN COLORADO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PLUME OF 700-300 MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FORECAST TO NUDGE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA BY DAYS END
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE TIED TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.50-1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH STORM
MOTIONS 10 MPH OR LESS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 60 TO 65 TONIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WITH THE VORT MAX
WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH STORM
MOTIONS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN TO WATCH IS THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST MUCH
SOONER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE 700-300 MOISTURE
PLUME SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING TO PERHAPS VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN REDUCING THE THREAT. HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER
WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

KGLD...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING WITH 15-17KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 25KTS IN THE
17Z-22Z TIME FRAME. FOR TONIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
8-10KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT PRESENT TIME.

KMCK...LIGHT EAST WIND AROUND 5KTS TAF TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BACKING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS63 KGLD 280835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AT PRESENT TIME UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND
WESTERN COLORADO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PLUME OF 700-300 MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FORECAST TO NUDGE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA BY DAYS END
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE TIED TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.50-1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH STORM
MOTIONS 10 MPH OR LESS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 60 TO 65 TONIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WITH THE VORT MAX
WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH STORM
MOTIONS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN TO WATCH IS THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST MUCH
SOONER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE 700-300 MOISTURE
PLUME SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING TO PERHAPS VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN REDUCING THE THREAT. HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER
WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

KGLD...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING WITH 15-17KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 25KTS IN THE
17Z-22Z TIME FRAME. FOR TONIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
8-10KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT PRESENT TIME.

KMCK...LIGHT EAST WIND AROUND 5KTS TAF TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BACKING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS63 KGLD 280835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

AT PRESENT TIME UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND
WESTERN COLORADO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PLUME OF 700-300 MOISTURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA FORECAST TO NUDGE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA BY DAYS END
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE TIED TO THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TOWARD 1.50-1.75
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH STORM
MOTIONS 10 MPH OR LESS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 60 TO 65 TONIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE OVER
NORTHEAST UTAH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY THEN SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND COVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MODELS ALSO AGREE ON INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WITH THE VORT MAX
WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WITH STORM
MOTIONS REMAINING UNDER 10 MPH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. ONE CONCERN TO WATCH IS THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH
BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST MUCH
SOONER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF. WITH THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF PUSH THE 700-300 MOISTURE
PLUME SOUTHWEST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MORNING TO PERHAPS VERY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MORNING BEFORE MUCH DRIER
AIR MOVES IN REDUCING THE THREAT. HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER
WITH LOW 80S ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND NORTH/NORTHEAST. LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ADVECT A
BIT MORE DRY AIR INTO THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND
FRIDAY.  UNTIL THEN...THURSDAY MORNING COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
UPPER CAPE PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER BUT
RATHER A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY.  SOME WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS ALOFT.
BESIDES GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT AND ABOVE 700 MB WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.

KGLD...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING WITH 15-17KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 25KTS IN THE
17Z-22Z TIME FRAME. FOR TONIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
8-10KTS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT PRESENT TIME.

KMCK...LIGHT EAST WIND AROUND 5KTS TAF TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BACKING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280825
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 mb frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. The development of
haze could not be completely ruled out at TOP/MHK shortly before
sunrise.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280825
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 mb frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. The development of
haze could not be completely ruled out at TOP/MHK shortly before
sunrise.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280825
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 mb frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. The development of
haze could not be completely ruled out at TOP/MHK shortly before
sunrise.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280825
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

The short term period looks rather quiet, dominated by surface high
pressure drifting east across the area through tonight, and
persistent cool northwest flow. High temperatures today will be a
bit cooler than yesterday, with highs expected to range from near 80
in far northeast KS to around 87 in the Abilene/Minneapolis area.
Expect a few showers to develop under cold air aloft in southwest
Iowa, but this light activity should remain northeast of the
forecast area this afternoon. The surface ridge shifts into far
eastern Kansas by late tonight and the combination of calm winds and
clear skies in the east should allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 50s. It should stay a bit warmer with westward extent into
central Kansas as return flow on the west side of the ridge is
likely to result in increasing mid level cloud cover after 06Z.
There are also suggestions that a band of rain showers or
thunderstorms could develop across north central Kansas, with the
NMM/ARW/NAM leaning heavily toward precip development. However, even
within those models, the vertical motion is weak and so is the
elevated instability above the moist layer. Have gone with slight
chances for thunderstorms in this area late tonight in the event
that ascent is a bit stronger or instability is a bit
deeper/stronger.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

For Tuesday, convective area that develops over Nebraska could
move southeast into north central KS during the morning hours and
have small chance POPs for that area. On Tuesday night and
Wednesday, trough in northwest flow aloft moves southeastward out
of the central Rockies into the High Plains. Isentropic lift ahead
of this system combined with upslope flow will produce greatest
QPF over western/southwestern KS. Our forecast area will be on the
northeast edge of this precip shield, and chances will likely be
tied to lift on warm side of 600-650 mb frontogenesis area.
Subsidence behind wave should dry things out Wednesday night.

Northwest flow aloft continues through Friday and then becomes
more northerly during the weekend. Medium range models have some
QPF over the eastern half of KS at various times, but there is
little consistency in placement and timing of these areas, at
least until Friday night or Saturday. During this time, as the
flow aloft transitions to the more northerly direction, a weak
shortwave trough moves across the eastern KS area with the
potential for some rainfall. While ECMWF and 00Z deterministic GFS
indicate QPF on Saturday, GFS Ensemble less certain and thus have
relatively low POPs for the early part of the weekend.

Temperatures in this northwest/northerly flow pattern continue on
the below average side with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in
the upper 50s to middle 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. The development of
haze could not be completely ruled out at TOP/MHK shortly before
sunrise.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KICT 280801
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG TROUGH AGAIN
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER DRIER AIR.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NEAR OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE
AND ITS PROGRESSION BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE A
SHARP CUTOFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KS
AND THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BRINGING BACK MOISTURE SOONER...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY TUE MORNING.
THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS SW OF A KRSL TO KWLD LINE FOR TUES AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. NOT
ALOT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO
THINKING MORE OF A SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  COULD SEE THE
SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS SW OF KICT...FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME FOR TUE NIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS BY WED MORNING.

THINK THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RATHER RAINY AND GREY DAY FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR WED.

THE RAINY/CLOUDY DAY ON WED WILL ALSO LEAD TO MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.  NAM/WRF EVEN KEEPS SOME AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IN THE UPPER 60S...SO WILL TREND TEMPS FOR WED DOWN SOME
WITH THIS IN MIND.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THU INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL....AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  65  85  65 /  10  10  40  60
HUTCHINSON      86  64  85  64 /  10  10  30  50
NEWTON          85  63  84  63 /  10  10  20  40
ELDORADO        85  63  85  63 /  10   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  65  85  64 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         86  63  85  63 /  10  20  30  40
GREAT BEND      86  63  84  62 /  10  20  50  60
SALINA          87  64  86  64 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       86  64  85  63 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     84  62  86  63 /  10   0  20  30
CHANUTE         84  61  85  63 /  10   0  10  20
IOLA            83  61  84  62 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  61  85  62 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 280801
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JULY
WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG TROUGH AGAIN
DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOL CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER DRIER AIR.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NEAR OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND
THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS IMPULSE AS
IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT GENERAL TREND WILL BE
FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE INCREASED HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE
AND ITS PROGRESSION BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE A
SHARP CUTOFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KS
AND THE MISSOURI VALLEY.

BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST BRINGING BACK MOISTURE SOONER...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY TUE MORNING.
THINK THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR AREAS SW OF A KRSL TO KWLD LINE FOR TUES AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES. SO WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. NOT
ALOT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO
THINKING MORE OF A SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  COULD SEE THE
SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS SW OF KICT...FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME FOR TUE NIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HEALTHY
RAINFALL TOTALS BY WED MORNING.

THINK THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO WED
AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A RATHER RAINY AND GREY DAY FOR
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR WED.

THE RAINY/CLOUDY DAY ON WED WILL ALSO LEAD TO MAX TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S.  NAM/WRF EVEN KEEPS SOME AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IN THE UPPER 60S...SO WILL TREND TEMPS FOR WED DOWN SOME
WITH THIS IN MIND.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THU INTO THE
WEEKEND AS WELL....AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE WITH THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  65  85  65 /  10  10  40  60
HUTCHINSON      86  64  85  64 /  10  10  30  50
NEWTON          85  63  84  63 /  10  10  20  40
ELDORADO        85  63  85  63 /  10   0  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  65  85  64 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         86  63  85  63 /  10  20  30  40
GREAT BEND      86  63  84  62 /  10  20  50  60
SALINA          87  64  86  64 /  10  10  20  30
MCPHERSON       86  64  85  63 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     84  62  86  63 /  10   0  20  30
CHANUTE         84  61  85  63 /  10   0  10  20
IOLA            83  61  84  62 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  61  85  62 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 280533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE
SINCE 0Z VERSION. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY TOMORROW
FOR KGLD WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST THEN
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS FOR KMCK WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO KANSAS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL







000
FXUS63 KDDC 280512
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  82  65  73 /  30  70  80  70
GCK  64  80  65  74 /  30  80  80  60
EHA  65  80  65  77 /  40  80  80  60
LBL  65  80  65  75 /  40  80  80  70
HYS  63  84  65  77 /  20  50  60  60
P28  66  85  67  75 /  20  60  80  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 280512
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  82  65  73 /  30  70  80  70
GCK  64  80  65  74 /  30  80  80  60
EHA  65  80  65  77 /  40  80  80  60
LBL  65  80  65  75 /  40  80  80  70
HYS  63  84  65  77 /  20  50  60  60
P28  66  85  67  75 /  20  60  80  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 280512
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  82  65  73 /  30  70  80  70
GCK  64  80  65  74 /  30  80  80  60
EHA  65  80  65  77 /  40  80  80  60
LBL  65  80  65  75 /  40  80  80  70
HYS  63  84  65  77 /  20  50  60  60
P28  66  85  67  75 /  20  60  80  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 280512
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

Light winds will prevail through most of the day Monday (10 knots
or less) especially at HYS and DDC as a surface high pressure
ridge will be centered across central Nebraska and Kansas. A leeside
low will eventually develop over eastern Colorado late in the day
with winds at GCK increasing to 12 to 15 knots by mid to late
afternoon out of the south-southeast. Terminals should be
convection-free through the day Monday and even into Monday
evening with most of the convection remaining over eastern
Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  82  65  73 /  30  70  80  70
GCK  64  80  65  74 /  30  80  80  60
EHA  65  80  65  77 /  40  80  80  60
LBL  65  80  65  75 /  40  80  80  70
HYS  63  84  65  77 /  20  50  60  60
P28  66  85  67  75 /  20  60  80  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period. The development of
haze could not be completely ruled out at TOP/MHK shortly before
sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KICT 280427
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD BE EVEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH DEEP TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  87  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          63  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  86  62  85 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          61  87  62  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  62  86 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         62  85  61  84 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            61  85  60  84 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  86  61  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 280427
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD BE EVEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH DEEP TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  87  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          63  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  86  62  85 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          61  87  62  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  62  86 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         62  85  61  84 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            61  85  60  84 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  86  61  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 280427
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD BE EVEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH DEEP TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  87  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          63  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  86  62  85 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          61  87  62  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  62  86 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         62  85  61  84 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            61  85  60  84 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  86  61  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 280427
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD BE EVEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH DEEP TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  87  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          63  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  86  62  85 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          61  87  62  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  62  86 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         62  85  61  84 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            61  85  60  84 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  86  61  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 280307
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL







000
FXUS63 KGLD 280307
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL







000
FXUS63 KGLD 280307
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL







000
FXUS63 KGLD 280307
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
907 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA
WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT CAPPED. LOOKS LIKE THE
INSTABILITY WILL ONLY LAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO THEN STABILIZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL







000
FXUS63 KICT 272345
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD BE EVEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH DEEP TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. CLOUD DEBRIS IS ALSO EXITING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AND WILL STAY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE NIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY WINDS AT
KRSL/KSLN WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER
NEBRASKA. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  87  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          63  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  86  62  85 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          61  87  62  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  62  86 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         62  85  61  84 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            61  85  60  84 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  86  61  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 272345
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD BE EVEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH DEEP TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA
AND ARKANSAS. CLOUD DEBRIS IS ALSO EXITING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AND WILL STAY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE NIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY WINDS AT
KRSL/KSLN WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER
NEBRASKA. WIND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  87  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          63  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  86  62  85 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          61  87  62  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  62  86 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         62  85  61  84 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            61  85  60  84 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  86  61  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 272323
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL






000
FXUS63 KGLD 272323
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
523 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KGLD
WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KTOP 272314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KTOP 272314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KTOP 272314
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through the taf period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KDDC 272300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update for short term trends and aviation...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Watching convection across Colorado. There isn`t much mid level flow
to advect the storms to our region, so reduced/trimmed pops to far western
/southwestern Kansas. By in large, most of the CWA will be dry tonight.
This jives well with short term guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Some mid level clouds, but no
reductions in flight category to less than VFR. Easterly 5-11 kt winds
will continue as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  20  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden






000
FXUS63 KDDC 272300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Update for short term trends and aviation...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Watching convection across Colorado. There isn`t much mid level flow
to advect the storms to our region, so reduced/trimmed pops to far western
/southwestern Kansas. By in large, most of the CWA will be dry tonight.
This jives well with short term guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Some mid level clouds, but no
reductions in flight category to less than VFR. Easterly 5-11 kt winds
will continue as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  20  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden







000
FXUS63 KGLD 272040
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...NEAR TERM MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE START
OF THE WEEK. CWA WILL REMAIN ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF LARGE H5 RIDGE
WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL...BEST CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO BE ON TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PORTION OF RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE CWA. LOOKS
LIKE PROFILES ARE ALL FAIRLY MOIST THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDINGS SO DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MOISTURE ADVECTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR ON PRECIP
THREAT. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP PLACEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO SOME LOWER LEVEL TEMP ADVECT REGIMES....BUT GIVEN THE
OVERALL SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING AMONGST THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
AND ROLE INSTABILITY WILL PLAY IN DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT FEEL THIS
PATTERN IS ONE WHERE STRAYING GREATLY FROM CONSENSUS DATA IS
WARRANTED. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
AND PERSISTENT DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND H7 ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...COOLER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES WANING AS THE WEEK GOES ON
DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. A LARGE RANGE IN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURE VALUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE LATTER BEING
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WITH GEFS MEAN SLP INDICATING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE PATTERN...AM LEANING TOWARDS COOLER OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272013
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows a weak MCV over south central KS
moving towards northeast OK. A mid level closed low was propagating
southeast across WI while the ridge amplifies over the west. Surface
obs show a modified Canadian airmass advecting south through the
forecast area with much drier air moving south.

The weather should be quiet tonight and Monday as the surface ridge
continues to build south. Models indicate the MCV over south central
KS should continue to weaken as it gets absorbed within the
northwest flow and a general lack of vorticity upstream of the
forecast area. This combined with relatively dry air is expected to
provide mostly clear skies and comfortable temps. Trended temps
overnight down a couple degrees anticipating good radiational
cooling. Dewpoint temps in the lower and mid 50s across NEB should
move into central and eastern KS overnight as winds lighten up.
Think lows will fall to around 60 or the upper 50s. For highs
Monday, models indicate deep mixing of the boundary layer with good
insolation through the day. Therefore based highs off of mixing
800MB temps adiabatically to the surface. This would result in high
around 80 across far northeast KS to the upper 80s in central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Much of the first several periods of the forecast bring, at this
point, small chances for scattered light precipitation. Northwest
flow will continue, but falling surface pressures along the lee of
the Rockies will bring increasing moisture into the Central High
Plains. Weak areas of isentropic lift and frontogenesis will make
their was as far northeast as northeast Kansas, and despite still
dry lower layers, could be strong enough for some narrow bands of
convection to form. Will maintain thunder mention at this point but
instability is rather weak at best. The initial frontogenesis looks
to occur in north central Kansas late Monday night into Tuesday,
with somewhat better forcing occurring Tuesday night into Wednesday,
but this will likely shift south of the local area as the surface
low pushes south and east. Highs for Tuesday look very similar to
Monday, but greater cloud cover and possibly better precip coverage
Wednesday should drop highs back a few to several degrees,
especially in east central Kansas with limited mixing in weak
surface high pressure.

For Wednesday night onward, have generally trended precipitation
chances downward. Decreasing levels of both moisture and forcing
occur Thursday as upper flow becomes more northerly should end
anything more than very isolated convection by late afternoon. There
is decent agreement for a modest wave to move through the flow
around Saturday and will keep small PoPs here. As for temperatures,
moderating values are anticipated, though anything beyond normal
values is unlikely in this pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions should prevail due to Canadian high pressure
building south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KGLD 272012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR






000
FXUS63 KGLD 272012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
IN PLACE ROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN KS...WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.

THIS FRONT ALONG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND WEST ...IM SKEPTICAL WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. IF WE DO IT
WOULD BE IN OUR SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL
WITH NO OTHER LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE LOCALLY. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH WHICH WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. I TRENDED POPS BACK A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND LIMITED THEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. I KEPT 20/30 POPS IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
BETTER QPF/PRECIP SIGNAL IS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REALLY MONDAY
NIGHT...SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS. HIGHS
MONDAY SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WHILE LOCATIONS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER (OR
PRECIPITATION) MAY BE CLOSER TO THE LOW-MID 80S. NOT VERY FAR OFF
FROM  TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST FROM
THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR







000
FXUS63 KICT 272000
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD BE EVEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH DEEP TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KICT IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS THRU THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  87  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          63  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  86  62  85 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          61  87  62  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  62  86 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         62  85  61  84 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            61  85  60  84 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  86  61  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 272000
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE
JULY WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS THIS UPCOMING WEEK...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN COOLER DRIER AIR.
MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER
TOP THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD BE EVEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS PERIOD...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH DEEP TROUGH
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS WELL MAKING FOR SOME
PLEASANT WEATHER DAYS. WE COULD SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MINIMAL CAPPING.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KICT IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS THRU THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  87  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          63  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        63  86  62  85 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  87  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  87  63  85 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          61  87  62  85 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       63  87  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  86  62  86 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         62  85  61  84 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            61  85  60  84 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  86  61  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 271937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 271937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Moisture and warm air advection improves in the 850mb to 700mb
level Monday night across southwest Kansas. This moisture and lift
will then spread across the remainder of western and central
Kansas through mid week as 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis improves
and subtle upper level disturbance embedded in a northwest flow
crosses the Central High Plains. Central and western Kansas will
also be near the right entrance region of an upper level jet from
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This continues to support the
previous forecast with precipitation developing early Monday night
in southwest Kansas then then expanding north and east through the
Tuesday. Given the persistent moisture and forcing over western
Kansas mid week....clouds, rain, and unseasonably cool
temperatures will continue. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall
will also be possible at times between Monday night through
Wednesday night, however at this time exact timing and location of
where this steadier and heavier rain showers will occur is still
unclear. At this time will stay close to the previous forecast
with where the mention of heavy rainfall will occur and trended
towards the WPC on rainfall amounts from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Taking these into account the potential for rainfall
totals ranging from 2 to 3 inches exist over portions of southwest
Kansas over a 24 hour period.

By late week a more significant upper level trough will cross the
central plains and shift this moisture and lift south into
Oklahoma bringing an end to the steady rainfall on Thursday. There
will be a slight chance for over thunderstorms weekend.
Temperatures also expected to gradually warm but highs are
expected to stay below the seasonal averages of 90 to 95.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KDDC 271916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 271916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KICT 271732
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT LITTLE SUPPORT
THERE IS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S MON-TUE. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALONG
THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
IS PROGGED WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE TUE WHILE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A SUBTLE WAVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED-WED NIGHT AND
MAINTAINED MID POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. DUE TO
LIMITED INSOLATION/PRECIPITATION...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEPICTING A LARGE TROUGH MEANDERING/RETROGRADING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KICT IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS THRU THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  65  87  65 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  86  64 /  30   0   0  10
NEWTON          88  64  85  64 /  20   0   0  10
ELDORADO        90  64  86  62 /  30   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  66  87  65 /  30   0   0   0
RUSSELL         87  63  86  63 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          90  62  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       88  64  86  64 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  63  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            90  62  85  60 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    92  64  87  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 271732
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WAS BISECTING THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHAT LITTLE SUPPORT
THERE IS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER THROUGH 15-16Z BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 80S MON-TUE. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ALONG
THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
IS PROGGED WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MAY DRIFT EASTWARD IMPACTING THE
AREA LATE TUE WHILE BETTER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A SUBTLE WAVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED-WED NIGHT AND
MAINTAINED MID POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. DUE TO
LIMITED INSOLATION/PRECIPITATION...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 70S. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEPICTING A LARGE TROUGH MEANDERING/RETROGRADING ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA THU-SAT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AND CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TSRA WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KICT IS MOST LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL AREAS THRU THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  65  87  65 /  30   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  86  64 /  30   0   0  10
NEWTON          88  64  85  64 /  20   0   0  10
ELDORADO        90  64  86  62 /  30   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  66  87  65 /  30   0   0   0
RUSSELL         87  63  86  63 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      86  63  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
SALINA          90  62  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       88  64  86  64 /  10   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     93  64  88  62 /  20   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  63  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            90  62  85  60 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    92  64  87  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 271727
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  65  80  64 /  70  10  10  30
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  30  20  10  40
EHA  84  64  77  65 /  10  40  30  60
LBL  85  66  78  65 /  20  40  20  50
HYS  90  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  68  83  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KDDC 271727
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  65  80  64 /  70  10  10  30
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  30  20  10  40
EHA  84  64  77  65 /  10  40  30  60
LBL  85  66  78  65 /  20  40  20  50
HYS  90  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  68  83  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KDDC 271727
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  65  80  64 /  70  10  10  30
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  30  20  10  40
EHA  84  64  77  65 /  10  40  30  60
LBL  85  66  78  65 /  20  40  20  50
HYS  90  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  68  83  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KDDC 271727
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to develop, die off, and
redevelop on renewed cold pools during the overnight hours.  We will keep some
chance POPs going through the night, but all the short term high resolution
models do suggest an overall downtrend in convection by daybreak. That being
said, we will remain within an axis of enhanced mid level moisture (monsoonal
moisture that has rotated around the north side of the mid level anticyclone to
the south), so at the very least will will see mid-upper level clouds hanging
around for much of the day. We decided to go with the coolest guidance for
temperatures today as a result (CONSShort and GLAMP) with highs 86 to 88F for
most locations. Surface-based storms will redevelop along the front late today,
but mainly across the western TX/OK Panhandle and into southeastern Colorado
where orographics will come into play with post-frontal upslope flow. A fairly
decent MCS should mature tonight and likely at least clip far southwest Kansas,
southwest of a Johnson to Liberal line, and this is where we will keep the
highest chance POPs tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  65  80  64 /  70  10  10  30
GCK  86  64  80  64 /  30  20  10  40
EHA  84  64  77  65 /  10  40  30  60
LBL  85  66  78  65 /  20  40  20  50
HYS  90  62  84  63 /  10  10  10  10
P28  89  68  83  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KGLD 271711
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS TO DELAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
MENTION TONIGHT TO SW PART OF CWA WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CHANGE TO A WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IS UNDERWAY AS DEEP UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN RIDGE IS MOVING/REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR SHOW THAT THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE DOING THE
BEST. THE NAM AND SREF WERE NOT DOING WELL. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE SURFACE. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE NEWER DATA SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE TREND FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL CONTINUES SO THE POPS FOR THAT
TIME LOOK GOOD. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED IN PLUS WILL
HAVE UPSLOPE WINDS. AGAIN NEWER GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
DID LOWER MINS MORE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION WHERE LITTLE TO NO WIND
IS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING KEPT THE TREND OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING THE MAIN LIFT MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINOR
LIFT REACHING OUR WESTERN PORTION...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SO REDUCED THE POPS AND PULLED THEM FURTHER WEST.

DURING THE DAY WITH THE MAIN LIFT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST...KEPT THAT AREA COOL OR COOLED THEM OFF A LITTLE. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WARMED UP MAXES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THAT AREA SHOULD BE UNDER RIDGING AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL ON
TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL LOW GETTING CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AND THE GOING
POPS LOOKED GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MID LEVEL LOW...
LIFT AND MOISTURE GET BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MADE NO
CHANGES.

MID LEVEL LOW AND LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETS MUCH BETTER DURING
THE NIGHT. NEWER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING A LOT
RAINFALL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BUT DID
RAISE THEM...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DID RAISE QPF
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.

COOLED OFF TUESDAY MAXES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION...
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS
WITH THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAXES EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR







000
FXUS63 KGLD 271711
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS TO DELAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
MENTION TONIGHT TO SW PART OF CWA WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CHANGE TO A WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IS UNDERWAY AS DEEP UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN RIDGE IS MOVING/REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR SHOW THAT THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE DOING THE
BEST. THE NAM AND SREF WERE NOT DOING WELL. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE SURFACE. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE NEWER DATA SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE TREND FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL CONTINUES SO THE POPS FOR THAT
TIME LOOK GOOD. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED IN PLUS WILL
HAVE UPSLOPE WINDS. AGAIN NEWER GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
DID LOWER MINS MORE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION WHERE LITTLE TO NO WIND
IS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING KEPT THE TREND OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING THE MAIN LIFT MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINOR
LIFT REACHING OUR WESTERN PORTION...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SO REDUCED THE POPS AND PULLED THEM FURTHER WEST.

DURING THE DAY WITH THE MAIN LIFT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST...KEPT THAT AREA COOL OR COOLED THEM OFF A LITTLE. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WARMED UP MAXES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THAT AREA SHOULD BE UNDER RIDGING AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL ON
TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL LOW GETTING CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AND THE GOING
POPS LOOKED GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MID LEVEL LOW...
LIFT AND MOISTURE GET BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MADE NO
CHANGES.

MID LEVEL LOW AND LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETS MUCH BETTER DURING
THE NIGHT. NEWER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING A LOT
RAINFALL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BUT DID
RAISE THEM...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DID RAISE QPF
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.

COOLED OFF TUESDAY MAXES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION...
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS
WITH THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAXES EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR







000
FXUS63 KGLD 271711
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS TO DELAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
MENTION TONIGHT TO SW PART OF CWA WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CHANGE TO A WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IS UNDERWAY AS DEEP UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN RIDGE IS MOVING/REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR SHOW THAT THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE DOING THE
BEST. THE NAM AND SREF WERE NOT DOING WELL. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE SURFACE. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE NEWER DATA SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE TREND FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL CONTINUES SO THE POPS FOR THAT
TIME LOOK GOOD. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED IN PLUS WILL
HAVE UPSLOPE WINDS. AGAIN NEWER GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
DID LOWER MINS MORE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION WHERE LITTLE TO NO WIND
IS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING KEPT THE TREND OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING THE MAIN LIFT MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINOR
LIFT REACHING OUR WESTERN PORTION...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SO REDUCED THE POPS AND PULLED THEM FURTHER WEST.

DURING THE DAY WITH THE MAIN LIFT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST...KEPT THAT AREA COOL OR COOLED THEM OFF A LITTLE. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WARMED UP MAXES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THAT AREA SHOULD BE UNDER RIDGING AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL ON
TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL LOW GETTING CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AND THE GOING
POPS LOOKED GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MID LEVEL LOW...
LIFT AND MOISTURE GET BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MADE NO
CHANGES.

MID LEVEL LOW AND LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETS MUCH BETTER DURING
THE NIGHT. NEWER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING A LOT
RAINFALL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BUT DID
RAISE THEM...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DID RAISE QPF
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.

COOLED OFF TUESDAY MAXES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION...
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS
WITH THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAXES EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR







000
FXUS63 KGLD 271711
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS TO DELAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
MENTION TONIGHT TO SW PART OF CWA WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CHANGE TO A WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IS UNDERWAY AS DEEP UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN RIDGE IS MOVING/REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR SHOW THAT THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE DOING THE
BEST. THE NAM AND SREF WERE NOT DOING WELL. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE SURFACE. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE NEWER DATA SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE TREND FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL CONTINUES SO THE POPS FOR THAT
TIME LOOK GOOD. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED IN PLUS WILL
HAVE UPSLOPE WINDS. AGAIN NEWER GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
DID LOWER MINS MORE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION WHERE LITTLE TO NO WIND
IS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING KEPT THE TREND OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING THE MAIN LIFT MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINOR
LIFT REACHING OUR WESTERN PORTION...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SO REDUCED THE POPS AND PULLED THEM FURTHER WEST.

DURING THE DAY WITH THE MAIN LIFT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST...KEPT THAT AREA COOL OR COOLED THEM OFF A LITTLE. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WARMED UP MAXES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THAT AREA SHOULD BE UNDER RIDGING AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL ON
TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL LOW GETTING CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AND THE GOING
POPS LOOKED GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MID LEVEL LOW...
LIFT AND MOISTURE GET BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MADE NO
CHANGES.

MID LEVEL LOW AND LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETS MUCH BETTER DURING
THE NIGHT. NEWER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING A LOT
RAINFALL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BUT DID
RAISE THEM...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DID RAISE QPF
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.

COOLED OFF TUESDAY MAXES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION...
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS
WITH THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAXES EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271647
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernible system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFS Ensemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 MB
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions should prevail due to Canadian high pressure
building south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271647
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernible system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFS Ensemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 MB
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions should prevail due to Canadian high pressure
building south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271647
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernible system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFS Ensemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 MB
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions should prevail due to Canadian high pressure
building south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271647
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

During the early morning hours, a few thunderstorms have been able
to develop amidst a band of moderate to strong instability
stretching across east central Kansas. These storms appear elevated
in nature, at least initially, but model soundings suggest that once
updrafts develop they could become somewhat surface based. Radar
signatures have at times suggested localized gusty winds within
downdrafts, but winds stronger than 40 mph appear quite unlikely.
The storms have also struggled to become strong enough to produce
hail larger than peas, probably due to the most unstable
near-surface parcels still being capped. This activity should drift
toward the southeast with some potential for additional development
toward the Ottawa and Garnett areas with time. Expect the
LLJ-enhanced convergence that seems to be responsible for developing
these storms to weaken by sunrise as the LLJ continues to veer and
the frontal zone shifts south, and convection should dissipate or
move south of the area by sunrise as well. The remainder of the
today/tonight period is likely to be dry across the area.

Temperatures will be cooler today, but still in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. The much cooler air will arrive overnight as another
punch of cold advection brings 850 temperatures into the lower to
middle teens (Celsius). Skies should be mostly clear overnight but
expect a bit of a breeze to continue so lows should hold in the 58
to 63 range. If winds become calm though, those numbers could fall a
bit lower.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Northwest flow aloft continues for much of the coming week. No
discernible system appears for Monday and Monday night and dry
forecast in order for those periods.

While medium range models agree on overall pattern, and do not
have appreciable shortwave troughs affecting eastern KS, there are
considerable model differences in predicted QPF throughout the
forecast period. First discrepancy shows up for Tuesday as GEM and
ECMWF develop convection in Nebraska and move it southeast into
northeast KS during the morning, while NAM, last two runs of GFS
are GFS Ensemble are dry. Will tend toward the dry side for Tuesday.

All models develop a northwest to southeast oriented band of
precipitation Tuesday night over eastern KS associated with 600 MB
frontogenesis and elevated instability. Best chances appear to be
over southwestern half of forecast area with lesser chance in the
far east. Precipitation chances continue into Wednesday, with the
best chances once again over the southwest half.

Upper flow pattern from Wednesday night through Saturday turns
from northwest to more northerly. 00Z ECMWF is relatively dry
through that period with upper low positioned farther east, while
its previous run, and 00Z GFS have periodic low amplitude shortwaves
dropping south/southeast through the eastern Plains resulting in
several rounds of precipitation. While confidence is not high,
have low chance POPs for most periods during the latter half of
the week.

Temperatures are forecast to be cooler than normal for this time
of year with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR conditions should prevail due to Canadian high pressure
building south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KGLD 271607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS TO DELAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
MENTION TONIGHT TO SW PART OF CWA WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CHANGE TO A WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IS UNDERWAY AS DEEP UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN RIDGE IS MOVING/REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR SHOW THAT THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE DOING THE
BEST. THE NAM AND SREF WERE NOT DOING WELL. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE SURFACE. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE NEWER DATA SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE TREND FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL CONTINUES SO THE POPS FOR THAT
TIME LOOK GOOD. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED IN PLUS WILL
HAVE UPSLOPE WINDS. AGAIN NEWER GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
DID LOWER MINS MORE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION WHERE LITTLE TO NO WIND
IS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING KEPT THE TREND OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING THE MAIN LIFT MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINOR
LIFT REACHING OUR WESTERN PORTION...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SO REDUCED THE POPS AND PULLED THEM FURTHER WEST.

DURING THE DAY WITH THE MAIN LIFT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST...KEPT THAT AREA COOL OR COOLED THEM OFF A LITTLE. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WARMED UP MAXES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THAT AREA SHOULD BE UNDER RIDGING AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL ON
TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL LOW GETTING CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AND THE GOING
POPS LOOKED GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MID LEVEL LOW...
LIFT AND MOISTURE GET BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MADE NO
CHANGES.

MID LEVEL LOW AND LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETS MUCH BETTER DURING
THE NIGHT. NEWER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING A LOT
RAINFALL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BUT DID
RAISE THEM...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DID RAISE QPF
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.

COOLED OFF TUESDAY MAXES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION...
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS
WITH THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAXES EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR KGLD.
HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS THAT FAR OUT AND ISOLATED AT BEST...CHOSE TO
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE AND SHIFTING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER






000
FXUS63 KGLD 271607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS TO DELAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
MENTION TONIGHT TO SW PART OF CWA WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CHANGE TO A WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IS UNDERWAY AS DEEP UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN RIDGE IS MOVING/REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR SHOW THAT THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE DOING THE
BEST. THE NAM AND SREF WERE NOT DOING WELL. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE SURFACE. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE NEWER DATA SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE TREND FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL CONTINUES SO THE POPS FOR THAT
TIME LOOK GOOD. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED IN PLUS WILL
HAVE UPSLOPE WINDS. AGAIN NEWER GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
DID LOWER MINS MORE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION WHERE LITTLE TO NO WIND
IS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING KEPT THE TREND OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING THE MAIN LIFT MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINOR
LIFT REACHING OUR WESTERN PORTION...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SO REDUCED THE POPS AND PULLED THEM FURTHER WEST.

DURING THE DAY WITH THE MAIN LIFT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST...KEPT THAT AREA COOL OR COOLED THEM OFF A LITTLE. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WARMED UP MAXES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THAT AREA SHOULD BE UNDER RIDGING AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL ON
TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL LOW GETTING CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AND THE GOING
POPS LOOKED GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MID LEVEL LOW...
LIFT AND MOISTURE GET BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MADE NO
CHANGES.

MID LEVEL LOW AND LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETS MUCH BETTER DURING
THE NIGHT. NEWER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING A LOT
RAINFALL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BUT DID
RAISE THEM...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DID RAISE QPF
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.

COOLED OFF TUESDAY MAXES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION...
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS
WITH THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAXES EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR KGLD.
HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS THAT FAR OUT AND ISOLATED AT BEST...CHOSE TO
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE AND SHIFTING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER







000
FXUS63 KGLD 271607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS TO DELAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
MENTION TONIGHT TO SW PART OF CWA WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CHANGE TO A WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IS UNDERWAY AS DEEP UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN RIDGE IS MOVING/REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR SHOW THAT THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE DOING THE
BEST. THE NAM AND SREF WERE NOT DOING WELL. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE SURFACE. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE NEWER DATA SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE TREND FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL CONTINUES SO THE POPS FOR THAT
TIME LOOK GOOD. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED IN PLUS WILL
HAVE UPSLOPE WINDS. AGAIN NEWER GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
DID LOWER MINS MORE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION WHERE LITTLE TO NO WIND
IS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING KEPT THE TREND OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING THE MAIN LIFT MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINOR
LIFT REACHING OUR WESTERN PORTION...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SO REDUCED THE POPS AND PULLED THEM FURTHER WEST.

DURING THE DAY WITH THE MAIN LIFT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST...KEPT THAT AREA COOL OR COOLED THEM OFF A LITTLE. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WARMED UP MAXES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THAT AREA SHOULD BE UNDER RIDGING AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL ON
TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL LOW GETTING CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AND THE GOING
POPS LOOKED GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MID LEVEL LOW...
LIFT AND MOISTURE GET BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MADE NO
CHANGES.

MID LEVEL LOW AND LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETS MUCH BETTER DURING
THE NIGHT. NEWER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING A LOT
RAINFALL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BUT DID
RAISE THEM...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DID RAISE QPF
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.

COOLED OFF TUESDAY MAXES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION...
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS
WITH THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAXES EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR KGLD.
HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS THAT FAR OUT AND ISOLATED AT BEST...CHOSE TO
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE AND SHIFTING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER






000
FXUS63 KGLD 271607
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS TO DELAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
MENTION TONIGHT TO SW PART OF CWA WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CHANGE TO A WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IS UNDERWAY AS DEEP UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN RIDGE IS MOVING/REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR SHOW THAT THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE DOING THE
BEST. THE NAM AND SREF WERE NOT DOING WELL. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE SURFACE. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE NEWER DATA SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE TREND FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL CONTINUES SO THE POPS FOR THAT
TIME LOOK GOOD. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED IN PLUS WILL
HAVE UPSLOPE WINDS. AGAIN NEWER GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
DID LOWER MINS MORE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION WHERE LITTLE TO NO WIND
IS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING KEPT THE TREND OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING THE MAIN LIFT MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINOR
LIFT REACHING OUR WESTERN PORTION...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SO REDUCED THE POPS AND PULLED THEM FURTHER WEST.

DURING THE DAY WITH THE MAIN LIFT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST...KEPT THAT AREA COOL OR COOLED THEM OFF A LITTLE. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WARMED UP MAXES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THAT AREA SHOULD BE UNDER RIDGING AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL ON
TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL LOW GETTING CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AND THE GOING
POPS LOOKED GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MID LEVEL LOW...
LIFT AND MOISTURE GET BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MADE NO
CHANGES.

MID LEVEL LOW AND LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETS MUCH BETTER DURING
THE NIGHT. NEWER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING A LOT
RAINFALL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BUT DID
RAISE THEM...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DID RAISE QPF
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.

COOLED OFF TUESDAY MAXES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION...
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS
WITH THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAXES EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR KGLD.
HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS THAT FAR OUT AND ISOLATED AT BEST...CHOSE TO
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME. VARIABLE AND SHIFTING WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER







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