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000
FXUS63 KTOP 250310
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1010 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Updated mesoscale discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 947 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Large complex of thunderstorms is steadily progressing east this
evening, and will continue to do so through the early morning
hours. Currently it is moving into an airmass characterized by
500-800 J/kg of most unstable CAPE with a most unstable lifted
parcel level near 1000 m. Surface parcels are also unstable but
capped. Current radar indicates that the main cold pool is about 15
miles ahead of the convective updrafts, also indicative of the
elevated nature. Where the updrafts do develop, they are vertical
in nature although not particularly tall, likely owing to the
steep mid level lapse rates, and where stronger updrafts have
developed there have been temporary indications of low level
rotation. These have largely been limited to portions of the
bowing line angled from SE to NW which are also the areas of the
line that are most stable to surface parcels. With that in mind,
the potential for these mesovortices to translate any enhanced
enhanced wind or rotation to the surface is very low.

Will need to continue to monitor the evolution of this system,
with some interest given to the southern flank as there is
stronger deep layer shear in those areas near/southeast of Council
Grove. However, the overall airmass is expected to become
increasingly stable overnight and east central KS will be
displaced from the strongest deep layer forcing with the storm
system. So, while the convection was quite intense in central KS,
it has weakened a bit with eastward progression, and will continue
to do so through the night. There is still some potential for hail
or even a localized damaging wind gust, but for much of the night
will have a focus on beneficial rainfall and frequent lightning...
with a few areas flirting with locally excessive rainfall from
Ottawa through Washington counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 250310
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1010 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Updated mesoscale discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 947 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Large complex of thunderstorms is steadily progressing east this
evening, and will continue to do so through the early morning
hours. Currently it is moving into an airmass characterized by
500-800 J/kg of most unstable CAPE with a most unstable lifted
parcel level near 1000 m. Surface parcels are also unstable but
capped. Current radar indicates that the main cold pool is about 15
miles ahead of the convective updrafts, also indicative of the
elevated nature. Where the updrafts do develop, they are vertical
in nature although not particularly tall, likely owing to the
steep mid level lapse rates, and where stronger updrafts have
developed there have been temporary indications of low level
rotation. These have largely been limited to portions of the
bowing line angled from SE to NW which are also the areas of the
line that are most stable to surface parcels. With that in mind,
the potential for these mesovortices to translate any enhanced
enhanced wind or rotation to the surface is very low.

Will need to continue to monitor the evolution of this system,
with some interest given to the southern flank as there is
stronger deep layer shear in those areas near/southeast of Council
Grove. However, the overall airmass is expected to become
increasingly stable overnight and east central KS will be
displaced from the strongest deep layer forcing with the storm
system. So, while the convection was quite intense in central KS,
it has weakened a bit with eastward progression, and will continue
to do so through the night. There is still some potential for hail
or even a localized damaging wind gust, but for much of the night
will have a focus on beneficial rainfall and frequent lightning...
with a few areas flirting with locally excessive rainfall from
Ottawa through Washington counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke





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000
FXUS63 KICT 242313
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE TERMINALS ALONG WITH IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  66 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  70  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  70  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 242313
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CAN
BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE TERMINALS ALONG WITH IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  66 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  70  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  70  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS63 KDDC 242305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE VICINITY
OF ALL TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS OF 15
TO 25KT ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL
THEN TURN WESTERLY 10 TO 20KT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  61 /  80  10  10  30
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  90  10  20  40
EHA  48  79  47  66 /  40  10  10  50
LBL  49  81  48  67 /  60  10  10  40
HYS  51  73  46  57 /  80  10  10  20
P28  53  81  52  65 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 242305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE VICINITY
OF ALL TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS OF 15
TO 25KT ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL
THEN TURN WESTERLY 10 TO 20KT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  61 /  80  10  10  30
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  90  10  20  40
EHA  48  79  47  66 /  40  10  10  50
LBL  49  81  48  67 /  60  10  10  40
HYS  51  73  46  57 /  80  10  10  20
P28  53  81  52  65 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 242305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE VICINITY
OF ALL TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VARIABLE WINDS OF 15
TO 25KT ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL
THEN TURN WESTERLY 10 TO 20KT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  61 /  80  10  10  30
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  90  10  20  40
EHA  48  79  47  66 /  40  10  10  50
LBL  49  81  48  67 /  60  10  10  40
HYS  51  73  46  57 /  80  10  10  20
P28  53  81  52  65 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KTOP 242253
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 242253
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 242253
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 242253
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
553 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 552 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

For the 00z TAFs, MVFR cigs are in place ahead of the approaching
storm system that will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to
the TAF sites this evening through the overnight hours. IFR
conditions will be possible at times with any of the stronger storms
that track over the TAF sites, along with gusty winds. Showers with
some scattered thunderstorms should persist into Saturday morning
before exiting from west to east. Winds will shift from southeast to
northwest with this passing system.  Uncertainty lies with whether
cigs will scatter out and improve to VFR for the remainder of
Saturday or if MVFR stratus will linger behind the exiting
precipitation through the afternoon hours, so we will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 242235
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BUT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 02Z-14Z WINDS
FROM THE WEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. 14Z-18Z
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTH (18Z) THEN NORTHEAST (22Z) AT 11KTS OR LESS. MAY
SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP AROUND 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z WINDS
VARIABLE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS. 06Z-15Z MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS. 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AM EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
4K FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242235
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BUT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 02Z-14Z WINDS
FROM THE WEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. 14Z-18Z
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTH (18Z) THEN NORTHEAST (22Z) AT 11KTS OR LESS. MAY
SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP AROUND 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z WINDS
VARIABLE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS. 06Z-15Z MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS. 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AM EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
4K FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 242235
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BUT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 02Z-14Z WINDS
FROM THE WEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. 14Z-18Z
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTH (18Z) THEN NORTHEAST (22Z) AT 11KTS OR LESS. MAY
SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP AROUND 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z WINDS
VARIABLE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS. 06Z-15Z MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS. 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AM EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
4K FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 242235
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BUT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 02Z-14Z WINDS
FROM THE WEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. 14Z-18Z
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTH (18Z) THEN NORTHEAST (22Z) AT 11KTS OR LESS. MAY
SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP AROUND 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z WINDS
VARIABLE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS. 06Z-15Z MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS. 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AM EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
4K FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 242235
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BUT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 02Z-14Z WINDS
FROM THE WEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. 14Z-18Z
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTH (18Z) THEN NORTHEAST (22Z) AT 11KTS OR LESS. MAY
SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP AROUND 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z WINDS
VARIABLE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS. 06Z-15Z MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS. 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AM EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
4K FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 242235
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z WINDS GENERALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10KTS BUT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. 02Z-14Z WINDS
FROM THE WEST NEAR 10KTS WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. 14Z-18Z
WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12KTS WITH SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 18Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTH (18Z) THEN NORTHEAST (22Z) AT 11KTS OR LESS. MAY
SEE A FEW CU DEVELOP AROUND 18Z BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 05Z WINDS
VARIABLE WINDS 6KTS OR LESS. 06Z-15Z MODELS HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED DECK. WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10KTS. 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
AM EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THEN EAST-
NORTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. SHOULD SEE A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND
4K FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KTOP 242034
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 242034
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Saturday morning the mid and lower level low pressures becomes
stacked over far NE KS. Wrap around moisture in the form of showers
should make it into far NE KS on the backside of the low pressure,
and linger through the morning hours before clearing out. A decent
pressure gradient will keep the winds gusty out of the north in far
eastern KS most of Saturday. High temperatures will range from near
60 in far NE KS to the mid 70s in east central KS. Saturday night a
secondary cold front pushes more stable air and lower dew points
southward across the forecast area. That front will push well south
of the area as another closed mid level low ejects out of the
southern Rockies into the southern plains. Upper level divergence
and isentropic lift ahead of this system will bring a slight chance
for showers Sunday night into Monday across SE and portions of
central KS. During this period high temperatures will generally be
in the 60s, while low temperatures generally reach the 40s.

For the extended period into Tuesday, there may be just enough
moisture and isentropic ascent still extending into far southeastern
KS to provide enough lift to see a few showers in the outlook area.
However, this is only through the GFS solution.  The EC and others,
show a drying trend quicker and the associated low staying off to
the South before filling and becoming an open wave as it moves off
to the East.  The rest of the period should see very small chance to
no moisture as any significant energy will stay well to the North as
a strong mid to upper level ridge builds into the area.  With rising
heights, fair weather conditions should be the story through much of
the next week.  Temperatures during this time rise into the 70s with
low 80s not out of the question.  Overnight lows remain pleasant in
the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Sanders
AVIATION...Heller






000
FXUS63 KGLD 242003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR KMCK...A PESKY LAYER OF MVFR OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE MY MID AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS...ONLY PUT
VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AT 1PM MDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...WITH LOWER BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG A TROUGH/DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
RAP AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHER
HIGH PLAINS.

THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT
20Z...ALTHOUGH CELLS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.  NMM AND ARW
GUIDANCE IS ALSO A BIT BEHIND REALITY WITH HAVING CONVECTION DEVELOP
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.  0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM HELICITY WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE
WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES UNDER 50 FOR THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT
EXPECTING TORNADOES TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE SUGGESTS A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 400 AND 500
J/KG...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM STORMS IS POSSIBLE...BUT
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY HAVE A LARGE
HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL GET GOING BY MID AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT TOMORROW WITH THE SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH DRY
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH WITH A CUT OFF LOW
FEATURE MOVES INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 700 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KTS...HOWEVER
FORECAST AREAS IN MODELS DO NOT NECESSARILY LINE UP.
THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A WIDE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
EXIST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH
OF FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STALL SOUTH AND WEST OF
OUR CWA. SOUTHERLY THEN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING VERY GOOD MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR CWA AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EAST WITH
OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WHERE ELEVATED
FRONT/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE. BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL IS CURRENTLY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE I CONTINUED TREND
OF RAISING POPS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIP
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO ADVECT SOUTH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS SOUTHWEST MONDAY.

IF CURRENT SIGNAL/TREND CONTINUE I COULD SEE RAISING POPS TO
CATEGORICAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...AND TO LIKELY CATEGORY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE 40KM GUIDANCE SHOWS QPF AS FAR
EAST AS NORTON/GRAHAM THROUGH THESE PERIODS...PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR
AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL ZONE/HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO...SO I
KEPT LOWERS POPS NORTHEAST/EAST. IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
THICK STRATUS/LIKELY PRECIPITATION HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND I
CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWER HIGHS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 40S IN SOME AREAS.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...THERE IS A SECONDARY H3 JET ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH...AND THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SHOWERS....OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
NEXT FRIDAY (80S) AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. WHILE THERE ISN`T A
LOT OF AGREEMENT AT THIS RANGE THE PATTERN DOES SUPPORT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN COLORADO MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN PLACE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR KMCK...A PESKY LAYER OF MVFR OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE MY MID AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS...ONLY PUT
VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KICT 241917
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  80  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241917
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  80  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 241917
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  80  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241917
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  70  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  80  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  60  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  60  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 241911
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
211 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Updated short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241911
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
211 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Updated short term forecast...

.SHORT TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

At 2 PM, a loosely defined warm front extended from just north of
Hays and Russel to just north of Newton...and was becoming
slightly better defined as it lifted north. Meanwhile, a very dry
low level airmass over southwest Kansas was pushing east
northeast, arcing from near Pratt to the northwest. The zone in
between these two features appears to be the favored area for
convective initiation some time around 3-4 PM. Storms that develop
in this region are expected to become supercellular and track
toward the east along the northward lifting warm front. Farther
east, the local forecast area was cloud covered at 2 PM, still in
the cool sector north of the warm front. However, the front is
still expected to lift north to near I-70 by late afternoon while
surface low pressure deepens in SW to SC Kansas. Convergence will
intensify along the front late afternoon and could force
additional convection immediately along the boundary. Any storms
that develop in this manner would likely be focused west of Topeka
through 8 PM, and would seem likely to lift north of the front and
become elevated in nature. This would lend to a large hail risk
unless a storm could root and track along the front, in which case
all hazards would be possible.

Will need to closely watch both of these areas of development as
the environment this evening will be characterized by ample low
level and 0-8 km wind shear, and some storm organization is
likely. However, there are periods of weakness in the mid level
wind fields and this could complicate storm mode in addition to
the strong forcing likely initiating clusters of storms rather
than isolated cells. The current thinking is that large hail will
be the primary hazard with some possibility for pockets of
damaging wind to develop. The entire area has a non-zero tornado
potential, but it appears that the best chance for semi-discrete
supercell structures and attendant tornado/very large hail threat
will be west of Topeka and generally within 40 miles North/South
of I-70 before 10 PM. As convective mode gets messier with
competing updrafts later in the evening, the potential for very
large hail diminishes, but ample wind shear, some surface based
instability, and strong forcing keeps at least some potential
hail, wind, and even a tornado into the early morning in east
central KS.

Finally, there is some potential for a few hours of training cells
along and just north of the warm front which could result in some
localized heavy rainfall amounts or even some flash flooding.
Moisture content of the air is not spectacular though so it would
take a few storms in quick succession to cause any flooding.

Storms will come to an end from northwest to southeast overnight,
with a few lingering showers or storms in the northeast through
sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller






000
FXUS63 KDDC 241811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  62 /  60  10  10  20
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  40  10  10  30
EHA  48  79  47  68 /  20  10  10  30
LBL  49  81  48  68 /  40  10  10  30
HYS  51  73  46  58 /  60  10  20  20
P28  53  81  52  68 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 241811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  62 /  60  10  10  20
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  40  10  10  30
EHA  48  79  47  68 /  20  10  10  30
LBL  49  81  48  68 /  40  10  10  30
HYS  51  73  46  58 /  60  10  20  20
P28  53  81  52  68 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  62 /  60  10  10  20
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  40  10  10  30
EHA  48  79  47  68 /  20  10  10  30
LBL  49  81  48  68 /  40  10  10  30
HYS  51  73  46  58 /  60  10  20  20
P28  53  81  52  68 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  62 /  60  10  10  20
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  40  10  10  30
EHA  48  79  47  68 /  20  10  10  30
LBL  49  81  48  68 /  40  10  10  30
HYS  51  73  46  58 /  60  10  20  20
P28  53  81  52  68 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  62 /  60  10  10  20
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  40  10  10  30
EHA  48  79  47  68 /  20  10  10  30
LBL  49  81  48  68 /  40  10  10  30
HYS  51  73  46  58 /  60  10  20  20
P28  53  81  52  68 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241811
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BE
DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES THANKS TO A 120+ KNOT JET LOCATED
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE TROUGH
AND LOW DEVELOP, LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING ON TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OUT
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FARTHEST NORTH WITH
ITS TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI.
THIS MODEL IS SHOWING DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS TRACK THE UPPER
LOW OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND HAVE THE
BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THAT DIMINISH
FARTHER NORTH AND HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

GIVEN THE CLOUDY, COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOP, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S
IN MANY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD SEE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER RETURNING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  48  62 /  60  10  10  20
GCK  48  78  48  57 /  40  10  10  30
EHA  48  79  47  68 /  20  10  10  30
LBL  49  81  48  68 /  40  10  10  30
HYS  51  73  46  58 /  60  10  20  20
P28  53  81  52  68 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 241807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
107 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION OF
THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  46  63 /  30  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  47  65 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  48  67 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  81  50  69 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  60 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  62 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  62 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  45  63 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  81  51  68 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  78  49  66 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  65 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  80  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241758
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR KMCK...A PESKY LAYER OF MVFR OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE MY MID AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS...ONLY PUT
VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KGLD 241758
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR KMCK...A PESKY LAYER OF MVFR OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE MY MID AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS...ONLY PUT
VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KGLD 241758
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR KMCK...A PESKY LAYER OF MVFR OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE MY MID AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS...ONLY PUT
VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241758
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM FOR KMCK...A PESKY LAYER OF MVFR OVERCAST
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LOWER CEILINGS
SHOULD IMPROVE MY MID AFTERNOON.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS...ONLY PUT
VCTS MENTION IN THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS WHEN SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KMCK AND KGLD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KICT 241736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  20  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      79  53  76  46 /  30  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  20  50  10  10
ELDORADO        78  55  77  48 /  20  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  20  40  10  10
RUSSELL         75  50  74  45 /  60  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      79  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  50  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       77  53  75  45 /  40  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  59  81  51 /  20  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 241736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  20  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      79  53  76  46 /  30  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  20  50  10  10
ELDORADO        78  55  77  48 /  20  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  20  40  10  10
RUSSELL         75  50  74  45 /  60  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      79  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  50  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       77  53  75  45 /  40  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  59  81  51 /  20  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  50  60  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  60  40  10  10
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  40  40  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  70  60  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 241735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE SHORT-FUSE SEVERE WEATHER COMPOSITE AT MIDDAY WAS SHOWING A
THREAT AREA STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE-BASED CAPE WAS
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG PER LAPS ANALYSIS AS OF 16Z. A SYNOPTIC DRY
INTRUSION/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD, SHUNTING
THE SURFACE-BASED INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UP TOWARD THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. BY 21Z, THE HRRR INDICATES DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT BY 20-21Z. THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY
GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT WITH AMPLE STREAMWISE VORTICITY
TO INGEST INTO AN INCIPIENT SUPERCELL STORM. THE HRRR HAS SHOWN A
PERSISTENT LONG-TRACK UPDRAFT HELICITY SIGNAL, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THE
BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE UP ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR, WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORMS EXITING OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (EAST OF ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTY) BY AS SOON AS
23Z. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE BENT-BACK REGION OF ENHANCED
CAPE/MOISTURE WESTWARD ALONG I-70 FOR FUTURE GROWTH OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RISK ALONG THE FRONT UP THERE
SHOULD THE HRRR PAN OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
MOMENTUM FINALLY PUSHING INTO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HYS TERMINAL, WHERE WE WILL GO WITH A 2-HR TEMPO GROUP OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING HAIL, WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE BASED ON RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY FROM THE HRRR MODEL OF A
SUPERCELL ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AT GCK AND DDC, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY ANY TIME AFTER 21Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID-
EVENING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION MODE BECOMING MORE SHOWERY BY MID TO
LATE EVENING PRIOR TO ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  50  60  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  60  40  10  10
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  40  40  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  70  60  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  10  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KTOP 241733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241733
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR ceilings continue for all sites, although slight improvement is
expected between between 21-22Z and the onset of thunderstorms.
TSRA will move west to east between 00-06Z with VCTS possible until
12Z.  Winds will begin to pick up towards the end of the period, and
VFR conditions should prevail from 12Z onward.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller






000
FXUS63 KICT 241204
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT ICT-
HUT-SLN-RSL THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING...WITH CNU
PROBABLY REMAINING MVFR...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DIURNAL
HEATING AND MIXING INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST FOR SLN-RSL
NEAR WARM FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT ICT-HUT AND EVENTUALLY CNU AS WELL DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  46 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  48 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  70  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  45 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  51 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 241204
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT ICT-
HUT-SLN-RSL THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING...WITH CNU
PROBABLY REMAINING MVFR...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DIURNAL
HEATING AND MIXING INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST FOR SLN-RSL
NEAR WARM FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT ICT-HUT AND EVENTUALLY CNU AS WELL DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  46 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  48 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  70  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  45 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  51 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 241204
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL AFFECT ICT-
HUT-SLN-RSL THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MORNING...WITH CNU
PROBABLY REMAINING MVFR...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTH...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DIURNAL
HEATING AND MIXING INCREASES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST FOR SLN-RSL
NEAR WARM FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. STORMS COULD EVENTUALLY
AFFECT ICT-HUT AND EVENTUALLY CNU AS WELL DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  46 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  48 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  70  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  45 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  51 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241154
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS DUE TO VARIETY OF CONDITIONS/WEATHER
EXPECTED. FOR KGLD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID
MORNING. NEAR 18Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE VERY NEAR KGLD AT THAT
TIME AND WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME AM
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KGLD SO ONLY PUT
VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z IT WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

FOR KMCK...IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME MVFR NEAR 15Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR NEAR 18Z. SINCE IT IS IN THE 9 TO 12
HOUR TIME FRAME OF THE TAF...CHOSE TO ONLY MENTION VCTS FROM 21Z
TO 02Z AT KMCK SINCE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BE SOUTHEAST OF THE SITE. AFTER 02Z...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241154
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS DUE TO VARIETY OF CONDITIONS/WEATHER
EXPECTED. FOR KGLD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID
MORNING. NEAR 18Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE VERY NEAR KGLD AT THAT
TIME AND WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME AM
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KGLD SO ONLY PUT
VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z IT WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

FOR KMCK...IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME MVFR NEAR 15Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR NEAR 18Z. SINCE IT IS IN THE 9 TO 12
HOUR TIME FRAME OF THE TAF...CHOSE TO ONLY MENTION VCTS FROM 21Z
TO 02Z AT KMCK SINCE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BE SOUTHEAST OF THE SITE. AFTER 02Z...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 241154
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS DUE TO VARIETY OF CONDITIONS/WEATHER
EXPECTED. FOR KGLD...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR BY MID
MORNING. NEAR 18Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE VERY NEAR KGLD AT THAT
TIME AND WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME AM
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP JUST EAST OF KGLD SO ONLY PUT
VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z IT WILL BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

FOR KMCK...IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME MVFR NEAR 15Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR NEAR 18Z. SINCE IT IS IN THE 9 TO 12
HOUR TIME FRAME OF THE TAF...CHOSE TO ONLY MENTION VCTS FROM 21Z
TO 02Z AT KMCK SINCE IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BE SOUTHEAST OF THE SITE. AFTER 02Z...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 241141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR cigs expected through 20Z-21Z with an improvement to VFR.
Some IFR cigs are possible with deeper moisture return. Also
maintained VCSH for the start of the period with elevated showers
and isolated tsra through 16Z. Some IFR cigs may develop at the
terminals and added a ifr cig at mhk where higher confidence is.
TSRA will be possible in the 00Z-07Z time period before
diminishing. IFR cigs and vsbys possible with TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53






000
FXUS63 KTOP 241141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR cigs expected through 20Z-21Z with an improvement to VFR.
Some IFR cigs are possible with deeper moisture return. Also
maintained VCSH for the start of the period with elevated showers
and isolated tsra through 16Z. Some IFR cigs may develop at the
terminals and added a ifr cig at mhk where higher confidence is.
TSRA will be possible in the 00Z-07Z time period before
diminishing. IFR cigs and vsbys possible with TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KDDC 241120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
THE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL ERODE BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z AT GCK AND DDC. HYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE STATUS AND
PATCHY FOG UNTIL AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM DDC NORTH AND EAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT
A PREVAILING PERIOD OF VCTS IN THIS LOCATION. TONIGHT SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  50  10  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  60  50  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
THE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL ERODE BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z AT GCK AND DDC. HYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE STATUS AND
PATCHY FOG UNTIL AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM DDC NORTH AND EAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT
A PREVAILING PERIOD OF VCTS IN THIS LOCATION. TONIGHT SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  50  10  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  60  50  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
THE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL ERODE BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z AT GCK AND DDC. HYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE STATUS AND
PATCHY FOG UNTIL AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM DDC NORTH AND EAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT
A PREVAILING PERIOD OF VCTS IN THIS LOCATION. TONIGHT SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  50  10  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  60  50  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 241120
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A MOIST UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
THE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF MVFR FOG WILL ERODE BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z AT GCK AND DDC. HYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE STATUS AND
PATCHY FOG UNTIL AROUND 17Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FROM DDC NORTH AND EAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT
A PREVAILING PERIOD OF VCTS IN THIS LOCATION. TONIGHT SKIES WILL
CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AS
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  50  10  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  60  50  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KGLD 241017
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY
SHORTLY AFTER WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 07Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY AROUND 18Z-19Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 00Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LEFTOVER. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF
THE MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY
12KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 08Z-15Z TIMEFRAME FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. FOR 16Z-19Z MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN VFR BY 20Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 22Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 01Z WITH ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS LEFTOVER. HAVE
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 22Z-01Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO ADJUSTMENTS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY UNDER
12KTS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 241017
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE WEEKEND...AND
HOW COOL TO MAKE IT ON SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A MILDLY
AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
SPLIT FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE WITH THE CANADIAN...NAM AND
GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVING
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEY
TENDED TO HAVE FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS TOO FAR EAST. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST. MODELS MAY NOT
BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO OUR WEST. THE RUC...NAM AND ECMWF LOOK
THE BEST AT THIS TIME. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE WARM ON THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE GFS DOING THE BEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR PROBLEM WILL BE THE EXTENT AND
LONGEVITY OF THE FOG AND STRATUS. MODELS LOOK TO DISSIPATE THE FOG
AND STRATUS BY LATE MORNING. SO THAT SEEMED REASONABLE AT THIS
TIME. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.STRONG
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT MOVES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA NEAR 18Z. SURFACE/FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO BE NEAR IF NOT
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE LOOK TO HAVE MADE
IT ABOUT HALF THROUGH THE AREA. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...LIFT
FROM BOTH FEATURES LOOKS TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. BELIEVE
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH
POSITION. ALL IN ALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
IN THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY BUT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THAT EASTERN
HALF WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.

TOUGH TO GAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND AN
UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD EVEN AFTER THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS. WENT
NEAR THE GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. FRONT LOOKS TO
BACKDOOR FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE NEAR
THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. SOME LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE FAR WEST. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE TRICKY. DESPITE THE WINDS BECOMING MORE UPSLOPE...
MODELS SHOW THE TEMPERATURES WARMING UP FINE. WILL STAY NEAR TO
BELOW GUIDANCE.

MAIN CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE NIGHT.
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN
LIFT AND MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL
LATER IN THE EVENING. ALSO MODELS SHOW STORM MOVEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH WHICH MEANS NOT MUCH PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. KEPT THE
MENTION IN THE FAR WEST IN THE EVENING. LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE LEAST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR EAST. MODELS SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND CONSIDERING THE NEGATIVE TILTED NATURE OF
THE SHORTWAVE...KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. WEAK AND DEEP
UPSLOPE WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM IS GOING IS CONCERNING THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY END UP FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS MUCH AND KEPT THEM MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. HOWEVER...DID LOWER THEM A LITTLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS CLOSELY.

DUE TO THE WEAK AND DEEP UPSLOPE AND THICK CLOUD COVER...CHOSE TO
COOL SUNDAY MAXES. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF UPSLOPE AND CLOUD COVER TENDED TO GO
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ON MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE CWA BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND EXIT THE
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY
SHORTLY AFTER WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 07Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY AROUND 18Z-19Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 00Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LEFTOVER. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF
THE MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY
12KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 08Z-15Z TIMEFRAME FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. FOR 16Z-19Z MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN VFR BY 20Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 22Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 01Z WITH ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS LEFTOVER. HAVE
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 22Z-01Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO ADJUSTMENTS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY UNDER
12KTS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240855
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 240855
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 240855
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 240855
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
355 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE NOTICED ACROSS
WESTERN KS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
EASTERN CO TO NORTHEAST KS BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS INCREASED SURFACE
MOISTURE MIGHT LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS THE MODELS INDICATE
THIS MORNING, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL BE
PRESENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS EARLY AS THE 18 TO 20 UTC
TIMEFRAME.

WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE THREATS, HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AT
LEAST EARLY IN THE EVENT. A TORNADO RISK IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN
THE DEEP SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH SURFACE DEW
POINTS. THE PARALLEL FLOW TO THE BOUNDARY MIGHT SUGGEST LONG TRACK
TORNADOES AREA NOT LIKELY, BUT BRIEF TORNADOES THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. ISOLATED, DISCREET STORMS SHOULD BEGIN THE EVENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL; EASILY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM CONVECTIVE
SCHEME SUGGESTED THE MORE DISCREET STORMS MORPHING INTO CLUSTER OR
SMALL LINES IN CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE EVENING, SUGGESTING POSSIBILITY
FOR NOT ONLY SEVERE OUTFLOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STACKED SOMEWHERE NEAR KANSAS CITY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING WESTERN KANSAS IN A DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT WEST SURFACE WINDS. NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  50  79  48 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  78  48 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  48  79  47 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  49  81  48 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  51  73  46 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  53  81  52 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KTOP 240853
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 240853
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
353 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough was located over Arizona this morning at 08Z while a
weak low pressure tough was located in the lee of the Rockies. Water
Vapor loop shows a fetch of moisture extending from the eastern
Pacific into the the Central Plains this morning. Low level jet was
advecting moisture northward across central Kansas with dew points
in the 50s. Expect an increase in low level moisture through the
morning hours with low level jet veering to the south southwest.
Models are in agreement with the progression of the upper trough
into the western Kansas by 00Z then ejecting northeast into
northeast Kansas tonight increasing forcing for ascent this evening
for convection. The surface low follows a similar track from
southwest Kansas into north central and northeast Kansas by late
evening. a dry line front will extend south from the low with a warm
front lifting northward across the area with much of the area south
of I-70 in the warm sector. Initial showers with isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning on the nose of the
warm/moisture advection and isentropic lift. Expect a period of
little activity from late morning through mid/late afternoon. Later
this afternoon expect showers and thunderstorms to develop out in
southwest Kansas and into central Kansas then spreading northeast
through the evening hours. All of northeast Kansas will have a
chance for severe weather from late afternoon into the overnight
hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes possible. Soundings show storms
remaining surfaced based through much of the evening hours, with
backed low level winds and 0-1km helicity of 200-300 m^2/s^2 in the
warm sector as well as along the warm front so the tornado threat
will likely continue after dark. Threat of storms will diminish
gradually after midnight with the passage of the upper trough. Highs
today will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows tonight in the
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

Upper trough`s exit across northern Missouri brings a gradual end
to precip Saturday. Cold air advection on north to northeast
winds behind the system brings a modest boundary south through the
area in the afternoon, though meager moisture and rising heights
preclude any mention of convection. Weak high pressure to the
north and a deepening low over the Southwest keeps east winds in
place for Sunday. Cloud cover looks rather prevalent for the
morning but mixing deep enough to still realize highs in the lower
60s. Still appears the upstream system will stay south of the area
into the work week, but at this point will keep small PoPs in the
south Sunday night into Monday night. Western ConUS/Rockies
ridging dominates conditions through the end of the forecast for
high confidence in dry weather. Main challenge should be
temperatures with still some influence of eastern Canadian trough
not far away, but moderation is likely for at least Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters





000
FXUS63 KICT 240808
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  47 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  45 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  45 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  46 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  48 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  60  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  44 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  49 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  47 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  46 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  48 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 240808
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  47 /  40  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      78  53  76  45 /  50  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  45 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        79  55  77  46 /  40  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  48 /  40  40  10  10
RUSSELL         74  50  74  45 /  60  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      76  51  75  46 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  70  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       78  53  75  44 /  60  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  59  81  49 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  47 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  46 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  48 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  49  78  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  77  47 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  48  81  49 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  50  73  45 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  52  80  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. DESPITE
A COLD FRONT CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 80S
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DIFULENT FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
ROUGHLY A GARDEN CITY TO LARNED LINE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY IF THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY COULD EASILY RESULT IN
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
CROSS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER LATE MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS COOLER AIR RETURNS TO
WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN CROSS WESTERN
KANSAS MID WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN LATE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  49  78  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  77  47 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  48  81  49 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  50  73  45 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  52  80  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 240611
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  49  78  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  77  47 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  48  81  49 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  50  73  45 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  52  80  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240611
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

IFR/LIFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT AREA TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR, AS SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE LOW.
SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMES AN IMPACT IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SEVERE STORMS THE LARGE HAIL (2 TO 3
INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS MAINLY AFFECTING THE HAYS AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  49  78  47 /  20  20  10  10
GCK  77  48  77  47 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  76  47  79  48 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  80  48  81  49 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  73  50  73  45 /  40  40  10  20
P28  82  52  80  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KICT 240510
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  47  69 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  45  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  45  67 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  46  69 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  48  71 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  64 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  65 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  64 /  60  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  44  66 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  80  49  70 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         57  76  47  68 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            58  75  46  67 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  79  48  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240510
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  47  69 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  45  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  45  67 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  46  69 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  48  71 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  64 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  65 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  64 /  60  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  44  66 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  80  49  70 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         57  76  47  68 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            58  75  46  67 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  79  48  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240510
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

ALL AREAS TO DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY WITH CIGS ~1,500FT ACRS SC &
CNTRL KS DROPPING INTO IFR/LIFR COUNTRY ~10Z WITH CIGS ~2,500FT
ACRS SE KS PLUMMETING INTO IFR COUNTRY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD.
AREAS 3-5SM BR (-DZ) ARE LKLY ACRS MOST AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN
ONE WOULD ENCOUNTER THE WORST CIGS & VSBYS. SO FAR ONLY KRSL TO
EXPERIENCE SCT -TSRA & HAVE LMT`D TSRA CB MENTION TO THIS TERMINAL
UNTIL 09Z. ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAPID IMPROVEMENT ~15Z WITH
1,000-1,500FT CIGS QUICKLY SCATTERING AS SOUTH WINDS INCR TO
~17KTS/20MPH BY 17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  78  47  69 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  76  45  67 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  75  45  67 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        55  77  46  69 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  48  71 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         50  74  45  64 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  75  46  65 /  40  10  10  10
SALINA          52  74  44  64 /  60  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  75  44  66 /  50  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  80  49  70 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         57  76  47  68 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            58  75  46  67 /  50  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  79  48  69 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 240442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 240442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Forecast seems to be on track, so there are not a lot of changes
to the prev forecast. Still looks like there is a chance for
elevated showers and thunderstorms with it being tough to pin
point timing and location. Therefore continue with VCTS. There is
a little more uncertainty in how long MVFR CIGS hang in through
the day Friday. With the RAP starting to show similar solutions to
the NAM, have held onto the CIGS into the afternoon. Don`t have
much confidence in the MOS guidance indicating IFR CIGS, but it is
not out of the question. As for stronger storms, models have the
best forcing moving through between 00Z and 06Z. TS coverage may
end up being more scattered, but feel PROBs are good enough to
include a TEMPO. There will likely need to be refinements to the
forecast as the weather moves in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KGLD 240415
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1015 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY
SHORTLY AFTER WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 07Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY AROUND 18Z-19Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 00Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LEFTOVER. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF
THE MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY
12KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 08Z-15Z TIMEFRAME FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. FOR 16Z-19Z MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN VFR BY 20Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 22Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 01Z WITH ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS LEFTOVER. HAVE
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 22Z-01Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO ADJUSTMENTS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY UNDER
12KTS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 240415
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1015 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...STRATUS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY
SHORTLY AFTER WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 07Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY AROUND 18Z-19Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 21Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 00Z WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
LEFTOVER. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF
THE MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO
ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY
12KTS OR LESS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF ISSUANCE OR VERY SHORTLY AFTER
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THE 08Z-15Z TIMEFRAME FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. FOR 16Z-19Z MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN VFR BY 20Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE TERMINAL AROUND 22Z MOVING THROUGH AND OUT OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA AROUND 01Z WITH ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS LEFTOVER. HAVE
MENTIONED VCTS IN THE 22Z-01Z TIMEFRAME BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGESTING A LITTLE LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME SO ADJUSTMENTS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY UNDER
12KTS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KDDC 240001
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

INITIALLY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE GCK AND HYS TERMINALS
TONIGHT. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT HAYS, BUT LEFT OUT OF GCK
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS OF 0620 UTC. SHOULD TRENDS CHANGE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES OUT TOWARD HAMILTON COUNTY, WE WILL NEED TO
ADD TSRA TO THE GARDEN CITY TAF SOME TIME IN THE 02-05Z TIME
FRAME. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
MINIMUM CEILING/VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LIFR CATEGORY
FROM ROUGHLY 09-14Z ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AFTER 14Z FRIDAY TO LATE MORNING AT GCK AND DDC AND AROUND MIDDAY
AT HYS. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT HAYS, BUT WE
WILL ADDRESS THAT IN THE TAF AS TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KICT 240001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EARLY THIS EVE CIGS FROM 2,500-3,000FT COVERED MOST OF SC & SE KS
WHILE 4,000-5,000FT COVERED CNTRL KS. CIGS TO LWR INTO "LOW-END"
MVFR COUNTRY BY 06Z AS AREAS OF TSRA SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL & SC KS.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OCCURS FROM 09Z-12Z WITH LIFR CIGS ~500FT
LKLY FOR ALL AREAS WITH -DZ BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT. LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED 12Z-15Z WITH SVR +TSRA STILL LKLY FOR
ALL AREAS FRRI AFTN & EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  50  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 240001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EARLY THIS EVE CIGS FROM 2,500-3,000FT COVERED MOST OF SC & SE KS
WHILE 4,000-5,000FT COVERED CNTRL KS. CIGS TO LWR INTO "LOW-END"
MVFR COUNTRY BY 06Z AS AREAS OF TSRA SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL & SC KS.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OCCURS FROM 09Z-12Z WITH LIFR CIGS ~500FT
LKLY FOR ALL AREAS WITH -DZ BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT. LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED 12Z-15Z WITH SVR +TSRA STILL LKLY FOR
ALL AREAS FRRI AFTN & EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  50  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 240001
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

INITIALLY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE GCK AND HYS TERMINALS
TONIGHT. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT HAYS, BUT LEFT OUT OF GCK
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS OF 0620 UTC. SHOULD TRENDS CHANGE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES OUT TOWARD HAMILTON COUNTY, WE WILL NEED TO
ADD TSRA TO THE GARDEN CITY TAF SOME TIME IN THE 02-05Z TIME
FRAME. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
MINIMUM CEILING/VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LIFR CATEGORY
FROM ROUGHLY 09-14Z ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AFTER 14Z FRIDAY TO LATE MORNING AT GCK AND DDC AND AROUND MIDDAY
AT HYS. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT HAYS, BUT WE
WILL ADDRESS THAT IN THE TAF AS TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KICT 240001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EARLY THIS EVE CIGS FROM 2,500-3,000FT COVERED MOST OF SC & SE KS
WHILE 4,000-5,000FT COVERED CNTRL KS. CIGS TO LWR INTO "LOW-END"
MVFR COUNTRY BY 06Z AS AREAS OF TSRA SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL & SC KS.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OCCURS FROM 09Z-12Z WITH LIFR CIGS ~500FT
LKLY FOR ALL AREAS WITH -DZ BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT. LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED 12Z-15Z WITH SVR +TSRA STILL LKLY FOR
ALL AREAS FRRI AFTN & EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  50  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240001
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

INITIALLY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE GCK AND HYS TERMINALS
TONIGHT. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT HAYS, BUT LEFT OUT OF GCK
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS OF 0620 UTC. SHOULD TRENDS CHANGE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES OUT TOWARD HAMILTON COUNTY, WE WILL NEED TO
ADD TSRA TO THE GARDEN CITY TAF SOME TIME IN THE 02-05Z TIME
FRAME. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
MINIMUM CEILING/VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LIFR CATEGORY
FROM ROUGHLY 09-14Z ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AFTER 14Z FRIDAY TO LATE MORNING AT GCK AND DDC AND AROUND MIDDAY
AT HYS. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT HAYS, BUT WE
WILL ADDRESS THAT IN THE TAF AS TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KICT 240001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EARLY THIS EVE CIGS FROM 2,500-3,000FT COVERED MOST OF SC & SE KS
WHILE 4,000-5,000FT COVERED CNTRL KS. CIGS TO LWR INTO "LOW-END"
MVFR COUNTRY BY 06Z AS AREAS OF TSRA SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL & SC KS.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OCCURS FROM 09Z-12Z WITH LIFR CIGS ~500FT
LKLY FOR ALL AREAS WITH -DZ BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT. LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED 12Z-15Z WITH SVR +TSRA STILL LKLY FOR
ALL AREAS FRRI AFTN & EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  50  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240001
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

INITIALLY, THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE GCK AND HYS TERMINALS
TONIGHT. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT HAYS, BUT LEFT OUT OF GCK
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS OF 0620 UTC. SHOULD TRENDS CHANGE AND
CONVECTION INCREASES OUT TOWARD HAMILTON COUNTY, WE WILL NEED TO
ADD TSRA TO THE GARDEN CITY TAF SOME TIME IN THE 02-05Z TIME
FRAME. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
MINIMUM CEILING/VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LIFR CATEGORY
FROM ROUGHLY 09-14Z ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS
AFTER 14Z FRIDAY TO LATE MORNING AT GCK AND DDC AND AROUND MIDDAY
AT HYS. LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT HAYS, BUT WE
WILL ADDRESS THAT IN THE TAF AS TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KICT 240001
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
701 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EARLY THIS EVE CIGS FROM 2,500-3,000FT COVERED MOST OF SC & SE KS
WHILE 4,000-5,000FT COVERED CNTRL KS. CIGS TO LWR INTO "LOW-END"
MVFR COUNTRY BY 06Z AS AREAS OF TSRA SPREAD E ACRS CNTRL & SC KS.
FURTHER DETERIORATION OCCURS FROM 09Z-12Z WITH LIFR CIGS ~500FT
LKLY FOR ALL AREAS WITH -DZ BCMG MORE PREDOMINANT. LITTLE IF ANY
IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED 12Z-15Z WITH SVR +TSRA STILL LKLY FOR
ALL AREAS FRRI AFTN & EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  50  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 232336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW KEPT VCTS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER
ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL WE SHOULD SEE STRATUS/FG/BR
AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z
AND LINGER THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS MOVE IN PUSHING THE LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AND ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

KMCK...SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR AROUND 07Z THEN IFR/VLIFR BY 09Z. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH
FOG/BR AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 232336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW KEPT VCTS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER
ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL WE SHOULD SEE STRATUS/FG/BR
AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z
AND LINGER THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS MOVE IN PUSHING THE LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AND ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

KMCK...SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR AROUND 07Z THEN IFR/VLIFR BY 09Z. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH
FOG/BR AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 232336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW KEPT VCTS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER
ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL WE SHOULD SEE STRATUS/FG/BR
AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z
AND LINGER THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS MOVE IN PUSHING THE LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AND ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

KMCK...SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR AROUND 07Z THEN IFR/VLIFR BY 09Z. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH
FOG/BR AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 232336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW KEPT VCTS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER
ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL WE SHOULD SEE STRATUS/FG/BR
AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z
AND LINGER THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS MOVE IN PUSHING THE LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AND ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

KMCK...SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR AROUND 07Z THEN IFR/VLIFR BY 09Z. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH
FOG/BR AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 232336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW KEPT VCTS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER
ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL WE SHOULD SEE STRATUS/FG/BR
AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z
AND LINGER THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS MOVE IN PUSHING THE LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AND ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

KMCK...SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR AROUND 07Z THEN IFR/VLIFR BY 09Z. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH
FOG/BR AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 232336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW KEPT VCTS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER
ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL WE SHOULD SEE STRATUS/FG/BR
AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z
AND LINGER THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS MOVE IN PUSHING THE LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AND ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

KMCK...SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR AROUND 07Z THEN IFR/VLIFR BY 09Z. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH
FOG/BR AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232322
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
KTS of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 KTS at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 KTS at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

The latest RAP and NAM forecast soundings are a little stronger
with the inversion which delays the development of elevated
showers and storms. The HRRR also supports this idea. Because
there is no obvious feature to pinpoint where storms my develop,
have opted to maintain a VCTS for the window when elevated precip
is most likely to occur. It still looks like CIGS could lower to
MVFR overnight as isentropic lift and moisture advection persists.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KGLD 232110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KGLD 232110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 232110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KGLD 232110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KDDC 232043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
HAYS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. HAYS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO BE IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THERE LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 232043
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO WAS ALSO PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 30- 40 KNOTS
OF SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER BUT ABOVE THIS LAYER, STRONGER SHEAR
WAS IN PLACE IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. THE STORMS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRONG EVACUATION ALOFT, LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS AROUND JOHNSON AND
SYRACUSE AND POINTS NORTH THIS EVENING AROUND 23Z-01Z AND HAVE
KEPT THE BEST CHANCES IN THAT AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE
NIGHT CONTINUES, AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES
OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
850 MILLIBAR LEVEL WHICH COULD ALSO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG AND/OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AND 156. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK BUT CAN`T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED HAILERS. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING EAST WHILE A DRYLINE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL
JET PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE 18Z MODELS ARE NOW LOOKING
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE BETTER 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DODGE CITY CWFA DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH SOME GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA, THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
HAYS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. HAYS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO BE IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THERE LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KTOP 232031
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
kts of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 kts at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 kts at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232031
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
kts of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 kts at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 kts at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KTOP 232031
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
kts of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 kts at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 kts at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232031
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A mid-level ridge was in place over the Central and Southern Plains
today with a mid-level trough progressing eastward across the
northeastern U.S. and another trough noted just north of the Baja
Peninsula.  At the surface, southeasterly winds prevailed as high
pressure remained stationed just east of the forecast area. This
southeasterly flow helped to keep a low/mid cloud deck in place
across much of the region today, limiting the daytime heating.
However, visible satellite imagery showed more breaks in the cloud
cover near the Kansas/Nebraska border, resulting in afternoon
temperatures reaching into the middle 60s. Further south in
locations with more persistent cloud cover afternoon temperatures
struggled to reach near 60 degrees.

The mid-level trough north of the Baja Peninsula will lift
northeastward toward the Four Corners region overnight and progress
north of the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles Friday afternoon, which will
help to provide ample mid-level support for thunderstorm activity
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Ahead of this
advancing trough, water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing along the lee-side of the trough
over Wyoming and Colorado with increased cloud cover noted over that
region. Models show these weak waves shifting eastward with the
eastward progression of the trough, moving into Nebraska and
northern Kansas overnight into Friday morning. In general,
short-range models have trended a bit weaker with the shower and
thunderstorm potential for late tonight through the morning hours as
the region should remain capped and forcing is limited. However,
with MUCAPE values upwards of 500-1000 J/kg and 45-55kts of 0-6km
shear, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong elevated
thunderstorms to develop in which some small hail will be possible.
Short-range models show that the precipitation should be pretty
isolated this evening and become more widely scattered through the
overnight hours before diminishing in coverage from west to east
during the mid to late morning hours. As a result, models suggest
that we could see a window of a few hours from mid/late morning
through early/mid afternoon in which locations are
precipitation-free and, according to some model soundings, may
potentially see some breaks in the cloud cover, especially closer
toward central Kansas. This diminish in cloud cover will allow for
more daytime heating in the afternoon hours to boost temperatures
into the low/mid 70s from central to east central Kansas, with
cooler temperatures in the mid/upper 60s across northeast Kansas
from the lingering cloud cover.  However, these high temperatures
will be very dependent upon how quickly the morning precipitation
dissipates and whether or not we are able to diminish the cloud
cover enough during the early/mid afternoon hours, so we will need
to continue to closely monitor these short-term conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday afternoon into the overnight presents a complicated weather
scenario with a likelihood of severe weather in the area, and a
potential for a few significant severe events.

The primary forecast questions through this period will be 1) How
far north does the warm sector surge? 2) How broad east/west will
the unstable warm sector be? 3) How much and how soon will the
boundary layer stabilize by mid to late evening?

In terms of the questions above, various model guidance are
generally in the same ballpark regarding how far north the warm
sector will surge, but the northern edge of the surface based
instability ranges from somewhere near the Nebraska border (GFS) to
a Council Grove to Lawrence line (NAM/NMM). The rest of guidance is
in between, and frankly the ECMWF rendition of the surface low and
warm front track looks to be quite reasonable, with the warm sector
coming as far north as Minneapolis to Manhattan to Holton line. Most
indications are also that the warm sector will not be particularly
broad east/west, and this *may* be able to limit the potential for
long track severe storms a bit as the individual storm forward speed
(40+ mph) should be faster than the system as a whole, and they
could move toward less unstable air with time. In terms of evening
stabilization, all indications point to an unstable warm sector
airmass through approximately 8-11 PM before becoming increasingly
stable. This is not entirely for sure as the surface low will track
directly across the area after midnight, but it does seem likely
that CINH will increase and the tornado threat decrease by late
evening.

The relative certainties in this forecast are following
1) Thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. 2)
Wind shear parameters are very impressive and will support storm
organization. 3) The combination of steep lapse rates and strong
shear will support large hail (some very large) in storms both north
and south of the front.

The rest of the details are fuzzier but important.  Damaging wind
potential does not appear to be a huge threat given low LCL heights,
but the potential for some upscale growth by mid/late evening and
very strong ambient wind fields suggest that a wind threat could
develop. The potential for tornadoes is conditional, but very
present. A worst case scenario would be if cells can remain
semi-discrete or move east of the main cluster of convection as any
isolated supercell in the warm sector would have full access to 30+
kts of 0-1 km wind shear underneath a strong mid level steering flow
(60 kts at 500 hPa) and exhaust jet aloft (130 kts at 250 hPa).
There would seem to be a primary window of opportunity between 6 PM
and 10 PM for tornado potential, especially with any isolated
supercells, as the low level jet rapidly intensifies during this
period but inhibition is slow to increase. The take away message is
that the potential exists for all modes of severe weather, and while
there are complicating factors, it will be important to prepare for
a few significant severe storms.

Precipitation looks to exit the area by sunrise on Saturday. A cold
front will then move into the area from the north on Saturday
afternoon. There will be some weak instability across the area, but
most indications point to a slightly capped boundary layer with weak
forcing along the front so currently have a dry afternoon forecast.
However, if low level moisture is a bit deeper or if temperatures
ahead of the front warm up more than forecast, could possibly see a
storm or two develop.

The remainder of the forecast is rather uneventful. Have maintained
a slight chance for showers early next week as a slow moving closed
upper low drifts across the southern Plains, but for the most part
it looks like precip should remain south of the forecast area.
Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal for much of
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KDDC 232016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4
KM NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST
IN THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO
A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
HAYS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. HAYS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO BE IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THERE LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 232016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4
KM NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST
IN THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO
A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
HAYS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. HAYS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO BE IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THERE LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 232016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4
KM NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST
IN THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO
A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
HAYS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. HAYS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO BE IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THERE LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 232016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4
KM NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST
IN THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO
A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AND
INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN THE EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END
SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF SATURDAY. SKIES LOOK
TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
OPEN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, INTENSIFYING
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNER`S REGION SUNDAY.
MODELS THEN SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SYSTEM
BEING MORE THAN 4 DAYS OUT TIMING AND POSITION WILL MOST LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS
PREDICT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH, THE CWA COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE DOMINATING FACTOR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT WHERE UPPER 30S COULD BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY THEN DECREASE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. THE
COLDEST DAY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. HIGHS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
HAYS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. HAYS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO BE IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THERE LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  49  78 /  40  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  48  77 /  50  20  20  10
EHA  49  76  47  79 /  30  10  10  10
LBL  54  80  48  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  51  73  50  73 /  60  40  40  10
P28  56  82  52  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KICT 231943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  40  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 231943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  40  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 231943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  40  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 231943
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT AS MOIST INSENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES...WHICH COULD ALSO GIVE WAY TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE STILL TRACKING TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA.
THIS FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. STORMS
SHOULD FIRE IN THE UPSLOPE MOISTURE REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
LOOK TO GROW UPSCALE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER WAVE LATER TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY TRACKING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A SECOND AREA OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOME VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TRIES
TO TARGET MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS MUCH STRONGER IS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA REGION AND ALREADY MAKING THE TURN EAST IS
THE FOCUS FOR FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND BECOME THE TRIGGER TO SET THINGS OFF...THE
STORMS COULD FIRE A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE INFLUENCE
FROM THE WAVE IS STRONG. THE KEY THINGS TO WATCH FOR TOMORROW WILL
BE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES...QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA AND HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ALOFT WE WILL
NEED SOME GOOD DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO BOOST UP THE
INSTABILITY TO BALANCE IT OUT. NONE THE LESS...STILL EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME VEERED OUT LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG WITH HIGHER CLOUD HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD LOWER THE
TORNADIC RISK...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE ALONG WITH LOWER
CLOUD BASES WHICH COULD INCREASE THE TORNADIC RISK. HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS IF THEY TRY AND SHIFT THINGS
LITTLE MORE WEST WHICH WOULD PUSH THE TORNADIC RISK WEST AS
WELL...WHICH HAS KIND OF BEEN THE TREND EARLY THIS SEASON.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE COULD BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION INTO KANSAS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SLOW MOVING UPPER
LOW BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
STILL REMAIN FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LOW WITH THIS EXPECTED SETUP.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  81  55  78 /  30  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      54  79  53  76 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          54  77  54  75 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        54  79  55  77 /  30  40  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  81  55  80 /  30  40  20  10
RUSSELL         51  73  50  74 /  50  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      52  75  51  75 /  40  40  40  10
SALINA          52  73  52  74 /  50  60  60  10
MCPHERSON       54  76  53  75 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  76  58  80 /  50  40  40  10
CHANUTE         54  74  57  76 /  50  40  50  10
IOLA            54  73  58  75 /  50  40  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    55  75  57  79 /  50  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 231912
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KGLD 231912
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KICT 231754
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1254 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  30  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  30  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  30  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  20  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  30  40  40
RUSSELL         61  51  74  51 /  10  50  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  40  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  20  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 231754
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1254 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  30  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  30  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  30  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  20  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  30  40  40
RUSSELL         61  51  74  51 /  10  50  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  40  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  20  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 231754
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1254 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  30  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  30  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  30  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  20  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  30  40  40
RUSSELL         61  51  74  51 /  10  50  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  40  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  20  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 231754
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1254 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CIGS INCREASING
INITIALLY ACROSS SRN KS FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES. BUT EVENTUALLY
WILL SEE THIS MVFR CEILING CHANCE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REST CENTRAL
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THIS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...THE CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR KRSL/KSLN AFTER 03Z/FRI AND AFTER 06Z FOR KICT/KHUT. WILL
ALSO SEE CIGS BECOME IFR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DEEPENS.  VCTS CHANCE LOOKS TO SHIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
09Z/FRI WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE AROUND
INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  30  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  30  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  30  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  20  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  30  40  40
RUSSELL         61  51  74  51 /  10  50  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  40  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  40  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  20  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231753
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1153 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231753
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1153 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231753
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1153 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231753
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1153 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
KGLD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS.
ONCE STORMS PASS THE VICINITY OF KGLD...LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KMCK THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RESULT TONIGHT DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KTOP 231746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 231746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Expectation is for VFR conditions to remain into the afternoon and
early evening. The lower confidence comes into the last half of
the TAF period with the mention of VCTS. The nature of this round
of showers and embedded thunderstorms does appear to be very
likely but scattered, so timing may need to be adjusted. Areas of
showers and thunderstorms could also bring CIG/VIS down to the IFR
category, but isn`t expected to remain after passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KDDC 231735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4
KM NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST
IN THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO
A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
HAYS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. HAYS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO BE IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THERE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  10  40  20  20
GCK  65  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  67  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  63  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  63  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 231735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4
KM NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST
IN THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO
A MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
HAYS ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP OFF AND ON THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY AND HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS AT THOSE TERMINALS. HAYS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO BE IMPACTED AND WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP THERE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  10  40  20  20
GCK  65  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  67  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  63  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  63  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KICT 231154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN TIME...HAVE BEEN MORE
OPTIMISTIC KEEPING THEM ABOVE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL
NIGHT FALL WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CURRENT TRENDS. HOWEVER...THEY
COULD BE ON THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS IF THEY
DO DROP BELOW VFR TO DROP MUCH BELOW DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...EXPECTING THAT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAF SITES AND ALSO REDUCED CEILINGS AT
THAT TIME TO MVFR.

BILLINGS

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  50  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  50  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  10  50  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  40  40  40
RUSSELL         60  51  74  51 /  10  60  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  50  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  60  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  10  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 231154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN TIME...HAVE BEEN MORE
OPTIMISTIC KEEPING THEM ABOVE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL
NIGHT FALL WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CURRENT TRENDS. HOWEVER...THEY
COULD BE ON THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS IF THEY
DO DROP BELOW VFR TO DROP MUCH BELOW DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...EXPECTING THAT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAF SITES AND ALSO REDUCED CEILINGS AT
THAT TIME TO MVFR.

BILLINGS

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  50  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  50  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  10  50  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  40  40  40
RUSSELL         60  51  74  51 /  10  60  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  50  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  60  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  10  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 231154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN TIME...HAVE BEEN MORE
OPTIMISTIC KEEPING THEM ABOVE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL
NIGHT FALL WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CURRENT TRENDS. HOWEVER...THEY
COULD BE ON THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS IF THEY
DO DROP BELOW VFR TO DROP MUCH BELOW DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...EXPECTING THAT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAF SITES AND ALSO REDUCED CEILINGS AT
THAT TIME TO MVFR.

BILLINGS

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  50  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  50  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  10  50  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  40  40  40
RUSSELL         60  51  74  51 /  10  60  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  50  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  60  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  10  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 231154
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN TIME...HAVE BEEN MORE
OPTIMISTIC KEEPING THEM ABOVE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL
NIGHT FALL WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CURRENT TRENDS. HOWEVER...THEY
COULD BE ON THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS IF THEY
DO DROP BELOW VFR TO DROP MUCH BELOW DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...EXPECTING THAT TO OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AND
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAF SITES AND ALSO REDUCED CEILINGS AT
THAT TIME TO MVFR.

BILLINGS

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  50  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  50  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  10  50  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  40  40  40
RUSSELL         60  51  74  51 /  10  60  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  50  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  60  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  10  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 231134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
634 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kts. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR conditions expected to continue through the bulk of this
forecast. Low-level moisture slowly builds, especially after 0Z,
with MVFR ceilings expected to develop in the 05Z-09Z period. Have
delayed greater thunderstorm chances a bit given latest trends.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KDDC 231113
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM
NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN
THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A
MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTAIL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WITH
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT INCREASING IN THE 900MB TO 750MB LEVEL
TODAY. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY
AT DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. AT
HYS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THE CHANCE
FOR FOG WILL INCREASE AND STATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE
SURFACE TO 900MB LEVEL SATURATES AND A SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 231113
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM
NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN
THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A
MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTAIL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WITH
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT INCREASING IN THE 900MB TO 750MB LEVEL
TODAY. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY
AT DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. AT
HYS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THE CHANCE
FOR FOG WILL INCREASE AND STATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE
SURFACE TO 900MB LEVEL SATURATES AND A SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 231113
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM
NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN
THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A
MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTAIL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WITH
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT INCREASING IN THE 900MB TO 750MB LEVEL
TODAY. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY
AT DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. AT
HYS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THE CHANCE
FOR FOG WILL INCREASE AND STATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE
SURFACE TO 900MB LEVEL SATURATES AND A SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 231113
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
613 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM
NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN
THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A
MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTAIL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WITH
MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT INCREASING IN THE 900MB TO 750MB LEVEL
TODAY. BASED ON THE 06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDING ALONG WITH THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY
AT DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. AT
HYS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THE CHANCE
FOR FOG WILL INCREASE AND STATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AS THE
SURFACE TO 900MB LEVEL SATURATES AND A SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AT
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231105
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LABEN
AIR INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT
STRATUS DECK. THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH
SITES WILL BE MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231105
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WIND WILL ADVECT MOISTURE LABEN
AIR INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN AN EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT
STRATUS DECK. THE BEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH
SITES WILL BE MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...FS



000
FXUS63 KDDC 230919
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
419 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM
NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN
THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A
MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTAIL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 230919
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
419 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM
NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN
THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A
MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTAIL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 230919
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
419 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM
NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN
THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A
MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTAIL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 230919
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
419 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SPLIT UPPER SYNOPTIC FLOW LEFT WESTERN KANSAS UNDER A WEAK FLOW
ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE SOUTH, SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DECAYING
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING CONTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION
OF STRATUS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE NAM CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE STRATUS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING LEADING TO CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 KFT DURING THE DAY.
INTENSE LATE APRIL INSOLATION SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING,
EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT TO
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS SCATTERS IS UNCERTAIN. DRY MID LEVELS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A DRIZZLE SETUP BETWWEEN ROUGHLY HIGHWAYS 83 AND 283
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPREADING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
TERRAIN SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPLICITLY DEVELOPED BY THE 4 KM
NAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY, AND DRIVEN EAST IN
THE HIGH (30-40 KNOT) SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY THE EVENING, BUT TO A
MUCH MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN KS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN SUGGESTS A 700 MB TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION, SETTING UP AN ISENTROPIC LIFT ZONE FOR THE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY MID LEVELS.

MOS/BLENDS FORECASTS UPPER 50S WITH MODELS SHOWING CLOSER TO 70 IN
THE AREA OF MORE ABUNDANT SUN TODAY. UNCERTAINTY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO TONIGHT AS THE EFFECTS  OF ANY POTENTAIL CONVECTION COULD
IMPACT TEMPERATURES, AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LEFTOVER RAIN
COOLED STRATUS OR FOG.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 230907
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AM THINKING THE VERY LOW STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER KGLD FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH. KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS A
FEW HOURS AFTER KGLD. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS
TO LIFT SOME IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER...REACHING IFR AT BOTH SITES BY
MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILINGS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
KGLD. CURRENTLY AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO MOVE OVER THE SITE.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH SITES...COMING TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LLWS TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 230907
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AM THINKING THE VERY LOW STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER KGLD FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH. KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS A
FEW HOURS AFTER KGLD. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS
TO LIFT SOME IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER...REACHING IFR AT BOTH SITES BY
MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILINGS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
KGLD. CURRENTLY AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO MOVE OVER THE SITE.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH SITES...COMING TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LLWS TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 230907
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AM THINKING THE VERY LOW STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER KGLD FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH. KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS A
FEW HOURS AFTER KGLD. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS
TO LIFT SOME IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER...REACHING IFR AT BOTH SITES BY
MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILINGS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
KGLD. CURRENTLY AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO MOVE OVER THE SITE.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH SITES...COMING TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LLWS TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 230907
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AM THINKING THE VERY LOW STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER KGLD FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH. KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS A
FEW HOURS AFTER KGLD. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS
TO LIFT SOME IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER...REACHING IFR AT BOTH SITES BY
MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILINGS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
KGLD. CURRENTLY AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO MOVE OVER THE SITE.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH SITES...COMING TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LLWS TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 230907
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AM THINKING THE VERY LOW STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER KGLD FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH. KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS A
FEW HOURS AFTER KGLD. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS
TO LIFT SOME IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER...REACHING IFR AT BOTH SITES BY
MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILINGS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
KGLD. CURRENTLY AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO MOVE OVER THE SITE.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH SITES...COMING TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LLWS TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 230907
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
307 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH  THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING TROUGH ON
SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

PLAN TO REMOVE MORNING POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A LACK OF
FORCING. THE NAM SHOWS INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RH OVER CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO THIS MORNING. METARS IN THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE REPORTING STRATUS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.  THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWARD
SO WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.  THE STRATUS IS SLOW TO
ERODE TODAY AND THEN REDEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO AFFECT THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLAN TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
SLIGHT CHANCE EAST OF THE BORDER. CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR
FROM 30-40KTS COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. DYNAMICS
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT WHERE THERE WILL BE CHANCE POPS.

A DRY SLOT ON FRIDAY WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE FA AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH.  CONSEQUENTLY LOWERED POPS TO NIL IN THE
MORNING BUT KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN
TROUGH COMES THROUGH. CAPE FROM 1500 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR OF 35KTS
IN THE EASTERNMOST FA SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS. POPS
DECREASE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

A SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW SOON THE WAVE WILL IMPACT
EASTERN COLORADO SO INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.  AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT, POPS INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST.  THESE HIGHER POPS MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
DURING THE NIGHT.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES COOLER AND MIN
TEMPERATURES WARMER.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO STRATUS
LIMITING INSOLATION. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH TOWARDS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING
OVER CANADA AND MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LOW. THIS AFFECTS
THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AM THINKING THE VERY LOW STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER KGLD FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH. KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS A
FEW HOURS AFTER KGLD. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS
TO LIFT SOME IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER...REACHING IFR AT BOTH SITES BY
MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILINGS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
KGLD. CURRENTLY AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO MOVE OVER THE SITE.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH SITES...COMING TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LLWS TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KICT 230852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  50  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  50  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  10  50  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  40  40  40
RUSSELL         60  51  74  51 /  10  60  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  50  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  60  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  10  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 230852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  50  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  50  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  10  50  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  40  40  40
RUSSELL         60  51  74  51 /  10  60  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  50  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  60  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  10  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 230852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  50  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  50  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  10  50  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  40  40  40
RUSSELL         60  51  74  51 /  10  60  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  50  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  60  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  10  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 230852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
WITH BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION IN OK PUSHING EFFECTIVE FRONT
SOUTH...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 0000 UTC LOOK SLIM.
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 60S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RAMP UP TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH/EAST SECTIONS AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BELIEVE NAM IS TOO QUICK WITH MOISTURE RETURN.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
BEST LIFT WILL LIKELY SHIFT NE AND OUT OF FORECAST AREA SOME TIME
AROUND 1200 UTC...SO WILL ONLY KEEP SMALL POPS GOING ALONG NE
BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. BUT THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE
DRYLINE LOCATION. STILL THE USUAL AMOUNT OF WAFTING...BUT
CONSENSUS KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY OF KICT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD SHUT OUT WESTERN COUNTIES FROM PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER...LEAVING
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF A KSLN-KICT-KEGT
CORRIDOR. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
MOVE LOW THROUGH...SO INITIATION MIGHT BE LATER WHEN DRYLINE
FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY WANE IN THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS FRONT/DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH.

SAT:
DRY AIR...WITH SOME HELP FROM AIR THAT ORIGINATED IN DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR SAT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ON SAT AND
INTO SUN AS WESTERN US TROUGH RELOADS. ECMWF/GFS A BIT CLOSER
THROUGH MON ON THE THE LOW MOVING INTO TX...BUT DIVERGE ON KEY
DETAILS. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WITH A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN THE GFS.
THIS HAS A BIG IMPACT ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH
GFS SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF WARM FRONT SUN NIGHT AND
PERSISTING INTO TUE...WHILE ECMWF IS KEEPS WARM FRONT MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH AND PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD...SAVE A SPURIOUS UPSLOPE 0.01 INCH SUN NIGHT. HAVE
TRIMMED BACK ON POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE TRIMMING WITH SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  52  82  55 /  10  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      61  51  79  53 /  10  50  40  40
NEWTON          61  51  79  54 /  10  50  50  50
ELDORADO        61  52  81  55 /  10  50  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  51  82  55 /  10  40  40  40
RUSSELL         60  51  74  51 /  10  60  40  50
GREAT BEND      60  51  75  51 /  10  50  40  40
SALINA          62  52  72  54 /  10  60  50  60
MCPHERSON       61  51  77  53 /  10  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     62  52  77  58 /  10  50  40  40
CHANUTE         61  52  74  57 /  10  50  40  50
IOLA            61  51  72  58 /  10  50  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    61  52  76  57 /  10  50  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 230837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE IS
LOCATED ABOVE THE ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LEADING TO INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/OK BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER OVERNIGHT EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 230837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE IS
LOCATED ABOVE THE ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LEADING TO INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/OK BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER OVERNIGHT EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN UNCERTAINTY ON FRIDAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE BY LATE DAY AND WHERE THE MOISTURE RETURN AND LOW LEVEL
FORCING BE LOCATED FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE NAM AND NMM
SUGGESTS THAT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL TO BE LOCATED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283 WHILE THE GFS, AND ARW WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVED
THE FRONT, DRYLINE, MOISTURE, AND BETTER INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NICE BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO EXTREMES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON A WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE
30S. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE FIRE DANGER LEVELS, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE RECENT GREEN UP BASED ON THE FUEL STATUS PAGE CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A FIRE WATCH AT THIS TIME.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE
DAY. AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREE COOLER. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S ALONG I-70 CORRIDOR TO
THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS NORTH OF THIS FRONT LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEEPENS
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY BE ON
THE INCREASE FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
THIS WEEKEND GIVEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW, MOISTURE
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND IMPROVING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW.

CLOUDY SKIES, COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FROM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEW MEXICO, ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE LATEST TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THE AREA MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 156.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  79  50 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  63  51  77  47 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  72  49  79  47 /  20  40  10  10
LBL  66  54  81  49 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  60  51  73  49 /  10  60  40  50
P28  61  54  81  52 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 230822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kt. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 230822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kt. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230822
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Northwest flow slowly loosing its grip on the central portions of
the nation as the upper low over Ontario slowly moves off and the
Rockies ridge breaks down from influences of multiple waves along
the West Coast, most notably the stronger low off Baja. Recent water
vapor imagery showing enhancement downstream of this system into
western Arizona. Low level ridge stretched from the eastern Dakotas
into southern Missouri with 850mb dewpoints of 10C+ common from the
Texas Panhandle south and east per 0Z obs. Weak isentropic upglide
and shallow moisture leading to areas of mid cloud in northeast
Kansas, with lower/more persistent cloud into southern and western
portions of the state.

Low- to mid-level moistening and forcing for ascent increase
rather slowly through today, but rise quickly tonight as the Baja
wave progresses northeast into the Four Corners area, pushing the
700-850mb ridge east for deep south to southwest flow to develop
on 850mb winds of 30-45kt. This should leave the daytime periods
dry with amount/persistence of cloud somewhat difficult to pin
down, but expect better insolation in the north and east for
warmer temps there. Precipitation tonight expected to increase
from late evening int the overnight from southwest to northeast,
though models differ on areas of best coverage. Somewhat enhanced
low-level moisture convergence is advertised in the southeast,
especially from the NAM, though signals for better upper support
come into northwestern areas, more directly downstream of the
upper wave, but have some concern this could be an artifact of
convection along the Front Range. Mid-level lapse rates increasing
to around 8C/km with elevated CAPES around 1000 J/kg and 1-6km
bulk shear of 30-40kt bring some potential for a few severe hail
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

Friday continues to be the forecast period of concern. Nocturnal
convection ongoing at the start of this period is expected to
move across the area through the late morning hours. May actually
see a break in the late morning and early afternoon. There is
still variability in how each model handles the incoming upper
wave and the development of the surface low and attendant warm
front. NAM and EC both develop the warm front front generally
along I70 while the GFS has more of a bimodal surface low that
extends the boundary northeast across our area into Iowa. Worth
mentioning that the EC is also slower with the actual upper wave
and slightly deeper as well. Factors in agreement remain the
strong upper jet moving in, and increasing mid level winds with the
approach of the wave, and a dryline set up somewhere near or just
east of Wichita around 0z. With incoming energy lifting over both
these features, expect storm development late afternoon into
evening hours and moving eastward. Amount of available instability
will be influenced by residual morning convection, and could also
influence eventual placement of the warm front, but would
anticipate higher values generally along and south of I70. Even if
values hold in the 500-1500 j/kg range, abundant bulk shear of
50+kts is ample for supercells and associated wind and hail
threat, as well as isolated tornadoes. Could also see some locally
heavy rainfall if storms can train along the warmfront as they
move east.

Saturday morning sunrise may have some lingering showers as the
upper low exits to the northeast, but expect most of this activity
to exit the area through the morning hours. Guidance pushing high
temperatures up considerably given early day showers and clouds
followed by northerly winds, and have gone cooler with highs in
the middle 60s north to low 70s south. Western side of the cooler
surface high continues to influence temperatures on Sunday, with
highs slightly cooler in the middle 60s most areas and a dry
forecast. Warm front moves into central Kansas ahead of next
incoming upper low, and will carry some showers on Monday but note
that several runs have taken this system farther southward. Slight
chance PoPs on Tuesday are for secondary piece of energy moving
through the central Plains, but this feature is farther north and
east in the EC, so just a slight chance. Sensible weather
continues highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KDDC 230615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE IS
LOCATED ABOVE THE ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LEADING TO INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/OK BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER OVERNIGHT EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA PROPAGATING
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ACROSS
KANSAS. THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND MOVES IT EAST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THE
MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AXIS WRAPS BACK INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH 40-60 KNOT 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR  DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATER FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE
EAST.

LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING
TOWARD MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TAKING A CLOSED LOW SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS TEXAS. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES IT FARTHER
SOUTH. THE NORTHWARD TRACK COULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LATEST EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
PRODUCES CHANCE POPS FOR THE DODGE CITY FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES, WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THIS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  81  50 /  20  30  30  10
GCK  62  51  77  47 /  20  30  30  20
EHA  73  49  79  47 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  67  54  81  49 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  59  51  71  49 /  10  50  60  50
P28  64  54  82  52 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 230615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE IS
LOCATED ABOVE THE ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LEADING TO INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/OK BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER OVERNIGHT EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA PROPAGATING
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ACROSS
KANSAS. THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND MOVES IT EAST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THE
MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AXIS WRAPS BACK INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH 40-60 KNOT 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR  DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATER FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE
EAST.

LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING
TOWARD MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TAKING A CLOSED LOW SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS TEXAS. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES IT FARTHER
SOUTH. THE NORTHWARD TRACK COULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LATEST EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
PRODUCES CHANCE POPS FOR THE DODGE CITY FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES, WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THIS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  81  50 /  20  30  30  10
GCK  62  51  77  47 /  20  30  30  20
EHA  73  49  79  47 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  67  54  81  49 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  59  51  71  49 /  10  50  60  50
P28  64  54  82  52 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 230615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK RIDGE IS
LOCATED ABOVE THE ROCKIES WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS
THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LEADING TO INCREASED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
BEFORE CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE TX/OK BORDER. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER OVERNIGHT EXPANDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER BY TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THIS
WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA PROPAGATING
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST ACROSS
KANSAS. THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW AND MOVES IT EAST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. THE GFS AND NAM ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THE
MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY. THIS MOIST AXIS WRAPS BACK INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR
THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG WITH 40-60 KNOT 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR  DEVELOPMENT
GIVEN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATER FRIDAY EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MECHANISMS MOVE
EAST.

LAST NIGHTS AND THIS MORNINGS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING
TOWARD MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OCCURRING WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS LATER
IN THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE TAKING A CLOSED LOW SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS TEXAS. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES IT FARTHER
SOUTH. THE NORTHWARD TRACK COULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE LATEST EXTENDED INITIALIZATION
PRODUCES CHANCE POPS FOR THE DODGE CITY FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES, WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THIS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WILL BE CEILINGS HEADING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EASTERLY MOIST UPSLOPE WILL PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM FORECASTS A SHARP
CUTOFF FOR SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS AND A ZONE OF
DRIZZLE PRODUCTION IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE MID LEVEL MOIST ZONE
(ROUGHLY THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE HIGHWAY 83-283 CORRIDORS).
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING, ORIGINATING FROM
SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION EVEN FOR A PROB GROUP IN ANY TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  55  81  50 /  20  30  30  10
GCK  62  51  77  47 /  20  30  30  20
EHA  73  49  79  47 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  67  54  81  49 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  59  51  71  49 /  10  50  60  50
P28  64  54  82  52 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 230527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FOG DEVELOPING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THINKING VISIBILITIES OF A MILE
OR SO ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING CLOSE TO
A QUARTER MILE.

TOOK OUT THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING SINCE THE STORMS
JUST WEST OF THE AREA HAVE DIED. STILL THINKING SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
THE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WITH WEAK
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME IS UNDERCUTTING UPPER RIDGE WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT HAS
SLOWLY BEGUN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EAST WITH RADAR SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS
FEATURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN IS ON COVERAGE AND
PROGRESS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COLORADO TOWARDS OUR CWA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHICH
COULD FAVOR THIS ACTIVITY MAKING AS FAR EAST AS THE CO/KS STATE
LINE. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO DAYTIME
HEATING...WAA OVERNIGHT AND NOSE OF LLJ COULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM LINGERING LATE THIS EVENING...OR SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES. MID LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
MOIST AND DESPITE VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAP ABOVE THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY NON ELEVATED PARCELS. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE NEAR SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER THE PRECIP SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE MAY ACTUALLY BE
DRIZZLE/FOG.

THURSDAY...NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
STRATUS/DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD
SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
ADVERTISED ALONG WITH STRONGER LIFT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
STRATUS CLEARING. HIGHS NEAR 70F (MAINLY IN THE WEST) ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEAR SKIES IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FLATTENS SOMEWHAT LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THAT DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT THAT
WILL BRING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A RESULT

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
4-CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE CENTROID OF THE TROUGH
MOVING OVER E CO/NW KS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE DRYER
AIR MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FORMS A
CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
AN INSTABILITY AXIS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...IT IS POSSIBLE
THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS THAT WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE FURTHER TO THE
EAST.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE EXITING TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AND THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT STARTS TO
DEEPEN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATING AND
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING. THEN AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TO A GREATER DEGREE...THE LOW SLOWS AND
ENDS UP SOMEWHERE OVER E OKLAHOMA/E TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A
BLOCKING HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED SATES. THAT RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRYER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID-WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AM THINKING THE VERY LOW STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER KGLD FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH. KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS A
FEW HOURS AFTER KGLD. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS
TO LIFT SOME IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER...REACHING IFR AT BOTH SITES BY
MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILINGS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
KGLD. CURRENTLY AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO MOVE OVER THE SITE.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH SITES...COMING TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LLWS TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 230527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MODELS COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FOG DEVELOPING OVER KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY THINKING VISIBILITIES OF A MILE
OR SO ARE LIKELY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING CLOSE TO
A QUARTER MILE.

TOOK OUT THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE EVENING SINCE THE STORMS
JUST WEST OF THE AREA HAVE DIED. STILL THINKING SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH
THE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAMS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...WITH WEAK
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME IS UNDERCUTTING UPPER RIDGE WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERLY STORM TRACK. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT HAS
SLOWLY BEGUN THE PROCESS OF MOVING EAST WITH RADAR SHOWING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS
FEATURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO.

THIS AFTERNOON TONIGHT...INITIAL CONCERN IS ON COVERAGE AND
PROGRESS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN COLORADO TOWARDS OUR CWA.
GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING INSTABILITY IN OUR WESTERN CWA...WHICH
COULD FAVOR THIS ACTIVITY MAKING AS FAR EAST AS THE CO/KS STATE
LINE. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO DAYTIME
HEATING...WAA OVERNIGHT AND NOSE OF LLJ COULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM LINGERING LATE THIS EVENING...OR SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WANES. MID LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
MOIST AND DESPITE VERY GOOD OVERNIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAP ABOVE THIS WOULD LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY NON ELEVATED PARCELS. I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE NEAR SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER THE PRECIP SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE MAY ACTUALLY BE
DRIZZLE/FOG.

THURSDAY...NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING
STRATUS/DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD
SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES FROM THE WEST WITH WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ONCE AGAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS
ADVERTISED ALONG WITH STRONGER LIFT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH
TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
STRATUS CLEARING. HIGHS NEAR 70F (MAINLY IN THE WEST) ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEAR SKIES IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS FLATTENS SOMEWHAT LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THAT DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS GOOD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT THAT
WILL BRING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A RESULT

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
4-CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE CENTROID OF THE TROUGH
MOVING OVER E CO/NW KS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE DRYER
AIR MOVES INTO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND FORMS A
CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY EVENING. WITH
AN INSTABILITY AXIS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...IT IS POSSIBLE
THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS THAT WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE FURTHER TO THE
EAST.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE EXITING TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AND THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT STARTS TO
DEEPEN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A LOW CENTER CONSOLIDATING AND
MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING. THEN AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TO A GREATER DEGREE...THE LOW SLOWS AND
ENDS UP SOMEWHERE OVER E OKLAHOMA/E TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A
BLOCKING HIGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED SATES. THAT RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRYER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID-WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED APR 22 2015

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AM THINKING THE VERY LOW STRATUS
WILL MOVE OVER KGLD FROM THE WEST...WHILE THE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE
UP FROM THE SOUTH. KMCK WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE LOWER CEILINGS A
FEW HOURS AFTER KGLD. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING. AFTER THAT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS
TO LIFT SOME IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING
CEILINGS WILL AGAIN LOWER...REACHING IFR AT BOTH SITES BY
MIDNIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE LOW CEILINGS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF
KGLD. CURRENTLY AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG TO MOVE OVER THE SITE.

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH SITES...COMING TO AN
END BY MID MORNING. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
THURSDAY EVENING...WOULD EXPECT LLWS TO RETURN TO BOTH SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KICT 230507
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
RED RIVER AREA...HOWEVER A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TRY AND
MIGRATE NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE KS/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COASTLINE OF BAJA AND CALIFORNIA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH EXPANSION LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH CAPPING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS LOOKS
TO PROHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE
THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCES MIGHT AFFECT OUR NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE FOCUS ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS MORE FAVORABLE.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST WAVE AND BE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHTS
WAVE. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT INTO KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE KEY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MIGRATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE...AS RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND BETWEEN THE TWO MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR KANSAS WITH A MORE
NORTHERN PLACEMENT PROVIDING MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  77  53  73 /  30  40  30  10
HUTCHINSON      52  76  52  72 /  30  40  40  10
NEWTON          52  74  53  69 /  30  50  40  10
ELDORADO        53  73  53  72 /  30  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  10
RUSSELL         50  71  51  70 /  40  50  50  10
GREAT BEND      51  74  51  70 /  30  40  40  10
SALINA          50  69  53  69 /  40  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       51  73  52  69 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  72  56  74 /  40  50  50  10
CHANUTE         51  71  54  71 /  40  60  60  20
IOLA            51  70  54  70 /  40  60  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    52  72  55  73 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 230507
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
RED RIVER AREA...HOWEVER A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TRY AND
MIGRATE NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE KS/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COASTLINE OF BAJA AND CALIFORNIA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH EXPANSION LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH CAPPING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS LOOKS
TO PROHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE
THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCES MIGHT AFFECT OUR NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE FOCUS ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS MORE FAVORABLE.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST WAVE AND BE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHTS
WAVE. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT INTO KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE KEY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MIGRATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE...AS RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND BETWEEN THE TWO MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR KANSAS WITH A MORE
NORTHERN PLACEMENT PROVIDING MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  77  53  73 /  30  40  30  10
HUTCHINSON      52  76  52  72 /  30  40  40  10
NEWTON          52  74  53  69 /  30  50  40  10
ELDORADO        53  73  53  72 /  30  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  10
RUSSELL         50  71  51  70 /  40  50  50  10
GREAT BEND      51  74  51  70 /  30  40  40  10
SALINA          50  69  53  69 /  40  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       51  73  52  69 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  72  56  74 /  40  50  50  10
CHANUTE         51  71  54  71 /  40  60  60  20
IOLA            51  70  54  70 /  40  60  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    52  72  55  73 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 230507
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
RED RIVER AREA...HOWEVER A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TRY AND
MIGRATE NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE KS/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COASTLINE OF BAJA AND CALIFORNIA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH EXPANSION LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH CAPPING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS LOOKS
TO PROHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE
THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCES MIGHT AFFECT OUR NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE FOCUS ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS MORE FAVORABLE.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST WAVE AND BE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHTS
WAVE. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT INTO KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE KEY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MIGRATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE...AS RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND BETWEEN THE TWO MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR KANSAS WITH A MORE
NORTHERN PLACEMENT PROVIDING MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  77  53  73 /  30  40  30  10
HUTCHINSON      52  76  52  72 /  30  40  40  10
NEWTON          52  74  53  69 /  30  50  40  10
ELDORADO        53  73  53  72 /  30  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  10
RUSSELL         50  71  51  70 /  40  50  50  10
GREAT BEND      51  74  51  70 /  30  40  40  10
SALINA          50  69  53  69 /  40  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       51  73  52  69 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  72  56  74 /  40  50  50  10
CHANUTE         51  71  54  71 /  40  60  60  20
IOLA            51  70  54  70 /  40  60  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    52  72  55  73 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 230507
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
RED RIVER AREA...HOWEVER A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TRY AND
MIGRATE NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE KS/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COASTLINE OF BAJA AND CALIFORNIA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH EXPANSION LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH CAPPING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS LOOKS
TO PROHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE
THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCES MIGHT AFFECT OUR NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE FOCUS ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS MORE FAVORABLE.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST WAVE AND BE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHTS
WAVE. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT INTO KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE KEY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MIGRATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE...AS RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND BETWEEN THE TWO MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR KANSAS WITH A MORE
NORTHERN PLACEMENT PROVIDING MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  77  53  73 /  30  40  30  10
HUTCHINSON      52  76  52  72 /  30  40  40  10
NEWTON          52  74  53  69 /  30  50  40  10
ELDORADO        53  73  53  72 /  30  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  10
RUSSELL         50  71  51  70 /  40  50  50  10
GREAT BEND      51  74  51  70 /  30  40  40  10
SALINA          50  69  53  69 /  40  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       51  73  52  69 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  72  56  74 /  40  50  50  10
CHANUTE         51  71  54  71 /  40  60  60  20
IOLA            51  70  54  70 /  40  60  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    52  72  55  73 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 230507
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
RED RIVER AREA...HOWEVER A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TRY AND
MIGRATE NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE KS/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COASTLINE OF BAJA AND CALIFORNIA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH EXPANSION LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH CAPPING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS LOOKS
TO PROHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE
THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCES MIGHT AFFECT OUR NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE FOCUS ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS MORE FAVORABLE.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST WAVE AND BE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHTS
WAVE. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT INTO KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE KEY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MIGRATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE...AS RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND BETWEEN THE TWO MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR KANSAS WITH A MORE
NORTHERN PLACEMENT PROVIDING MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  77  53  73 /  30  40  30  10
HUTCHINSON      52  76  52  72 /  30  40  40  10
NEWTON          52  74  53  69 /  30  50  40  10
ELDORADO        53  73  53  72 /  30  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  10
RUSSELL         50  71  51  70 /  40  50  50  10
GREAT BEND      51  74  51  70 /  30  40  40  10
SALINA          50  69  53  69 /  40  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       51  73  52  69 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  72  56  74 /  40  50  50  10
CHANUTE         51  71  54  71 /  40  60  60  20
IOLA            51  70  54  70 /  40  60  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    52  72  55  73 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 230437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 230437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 230437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the closed mid-level low continuing to
spin north of the Great Lakes region, keeping the forecast area in
northwesterly flow aloft.  At the surface, high pressure was
centered over the area with light northeasterly winds keeping
temperatures cooler than normal with afternoon highs only reaching
into the mid/upper 50s. The mid-level low should start to pivot a
bit further east tonight into Thursday as a weak mid-level ridge
develops over the Central and Southern Plains. The region will
remain under the influence of surface high pressure tonight through
Thursday as it slowly shifts eastward, causing winds to shift to the
southeast by Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty with how
cool low temperatures will drop tonight as there are model
discrepancies with regards to cloud cover overnight. The NAM is most
aggressive with bringing in an overcast low cloud deck while other
models suggest only few to scattered cloud cover developing early
Thursday morning. Have trended more toward the cloud cover being few
to scattered and, thus, have continued to trend on the lower side of
temperatures with lows in the mid/upper 30s north to near 40 degrees
south, but will need to closely monitor conditions through the
overnight hours. With these temperatures in mind, in combination
with the light winds, cannot rule out the potential for some patchy
frost to develop in extreme northeast Kansas where temperatures are
expected to drop into the mid 30s.

With winds shifting to the southeast on Thursday, expect afternoon
temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today with highs
reaching into the low/mid 60s. Model soundings are in agreement with
having increasing low-level cloud cover through the day with several
short-range models even suggesting the potential for a few isolated
showers to develop. However, there is very little in the way of
available lift to support the development of any precipitation so
have continued with a dry forecast for Thursday yet cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle or two.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Forecast focus remains on Friday severe storm risk. Feel that the
12Z ECMWF is a realistic compromise between a weaker sfc depiction
of the NAM and more northerly sfc low solution of the GFS. In
summary...all models depict a potential significant severe weather
event across the area Friday evening.

Expect scattered elevated convection to develop later Thursday
night through midday Friday as an initial upper wave moves into
the Plains and enhances WAA/moisture advection within axis of 40-50KT
LLJ however given lack of a 850mb boundary/focus will keep precip
chcs in the 30-40 percent range.

By 12z Friday expect the main upper wave to be around the Four
Corners region inducing sfc pressure falls across southwest
Kansas. Looking at current obs across north/central TX the idea of
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints reaching into central KS by 21Z
Friday appears reasonable and expect this to be the case near
south of the warm front which should move toward a Salina to
Emporia line in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. The dry line should
also be located somewhere along a Salina to Wichita line based on
latest ECMWF. All models are depicting a 100-125KT 300MB jet streak
overspreading the area by 00Z Sat which will provide a window for
6KM shear of 60-70KT to exist in concert with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/KG and limited capping which should be eliminated by
dynamic lift of the upper wave. Most concerning will be the 00Z to
06Z time frame when 0-1km shear will increase markedly and could
support some risk for stronger tornadoes if sufficient sfc based
instability exists. Main uncertainties remain timing and location of
the sfc low and associated warm front and initial development.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF all vary to some degree in location of details. For
now will keep emphasizing the potentially dangerous set up later
Friday evening and focus on the details in the next 36 hours.

Beyond Friday night some lingering showers early Saturday before
dry and cool weather moves into the region for the rest of the
weekend. The next upper low is still forecast to dig into the
southern Rockies by Monday. The GFS is the only model that
supports a wet or more northern solution while the GEM/ECMWF are
dry across the area. For now will keep low precip chcs early next
week but wouldn`t be surprised if trends support dry weather next
week with the highly amplified pattern with near or below avg
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

Models continue to show shallow moisture advection up over the
surface ridge. However the better forcing and lift appear to
impact the region towards the end of the forecast period, with
increase chances for precip aft 06Z Friday. Because I can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm prior to 06Z, will include a PROB30
for the last few hours of the forecast. Otherwise VFR conditions
should prevail as the moisture advection remains above 4 KFT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters







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