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000
FXUS63 KTOP 011119
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
619 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Water vapor imagery showed a broad mid-level trough in place
across the northern U.S. with the shortwave trough that has helped
to support the overnight shower and thunderstorm activity early
this morning centered over the forecast area and shifting
eastward. The cold front associated with this storm system has
been lagging behind the precipitation, with it stretched across
north central Kansas as of 08z. Models still seem to be a bit fast
with the tracking of this frontal passage, but in general expect
it to slowly progress eastward through the day before getting hung
up across east central and southeastern Kansas as the southern
edge of the mid-level trough flattens but continues to dig a bit
further south over the region. With this eastward progression of
the front, will continue to see the widespread showers and
thunderstorms diminish from west to east this morning, with
possibly a few lingering showers over far east central Kansas by
mid-morning. Several short-range models suggest that areas in east
central Kansas may continue to see some isolated showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day as the front stalls over that
area. With this lingering boundary, expect to see a spread in high
temperatures from the low/mid 80s north to the upper 80s/near 90
degrees over east central Kansas where a southerly flow should
prevail for much of the day. This better diurnal heating over east
central Kansas should aid in modest instability developing across
the area this afternoon, which should support additional
thunderstorm development. This initial scattered activity should
become a bit more widespread along the boundary by mid to late
afternoon and into this evening, primarily along and south of I-35
but may extend as far north as around I-70. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible with this activity as MLCAPE values reach upwards
of 2000-3000J/kg with strong 0-6km bulk shear values of 45-55kts.
The primary concerns with these storms will be large hail and
damaging winds, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado threat.
Additionally, there is the potential for localized flooding as
additional moderate to heavy rain is possible over locations that
have already received a few inches of rain from this morning`s
thunderstorms. These storms should diminish during the late
evening hours and shift southward as the cold front gets pushed
south of the forecast area. With light northerly winds and
clearing skies behind this front, expect cooler conditions
overnight with lows dropping into the upper 50s north to mid/upper
60s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The frontal boundary will remain hung up just south of the area on
Tuesday, and model guidance hints at a weak trough moving across
southern KS late in the day. Expect strong instability in east
central and southeast KS with little to no inhibition and 25 to 35
kts of 0-6 km shear. Low-level convergence will be very weak
however, and any thunderstorm development will have to rely on
lift from any weak mid level troughs. Currently have rather low
POPs focused in the far southern portions of the forecast area for
Tuesday afternoon, but if a slightly stronger disturbance can
bring some vertical motion into the area around peak heating,
could see scattered severe storms south of I-70. A strong trough
will move into Montana on Tuesday night with the low level jet
increasing a bit locally overnight. Expect impressive theta-e
advection and moisture transport into east central Kansas and
eventually northeast Kansas overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates
will be in place with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg and effective shear
of 30-40 kts. This should result in scattered to widespread
thunderstorms with large hail possible. Could also see a heavy
rain threat materialize.

Warm advection and ample sunshine by Wednesday point to a hot day
with heat index values possibly topping 100. The warm advection
aloft should also cap surface parcels and expect dry conditions
through Thursday. However, by late in the day on Thursday, a cold
front associated with the northern CONUS trough will approach the
area. Expect strong forcing along the front to result in
widespread thunderstorm development with the main uncertainty
still being the timing of the frontal progression across the
forecast area. The frontal zone seems likely to linger in the area
into the weekend as the main forcing will pass well north. This
will likely be impacted by any organized thunderstorm outflow
though. Elevated instability will remain in place north of the
front although it should diminish over time. Have gradually
decreased precip chances north to south through the weekend as the
surface high should build in stronger with time. Have not made
major changes to temperatures from the prior forecast, and we
still look to be on track for highs in the 70s for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the 12z TAFs, some scattered IFR/MVFR cigs have developed behind
the precipitation and should persist through the morning before
lifting to low-end VFR by this afternoon. As the cold front slowly
tracks through the region, winds will be veering to the northwest
and north-northeast through the period. There is the potential for
thunderstorms to redevelop by late afternoon near the lingering
boundary, however there is still some uncertainty as to whether or
not this activity will impact KTOP/KFOE so only have a mention of
VCTS at this time. Any storms that do develop should move further
south of the TAF sites through the evening. Models are starting to
suggest the possibility of some patchy fog developing Tuesday
morning due to the light winds, clearing skies, and low-level
moisture present. Mentioned a scattered MVFR cloud deck at this
time, but too much uncertainty still to add any further details in
the TAF.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke






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000
FXUS63 KDDC 010918
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TEMPERATURES AND THEN ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THIS SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE 80S BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL LEAVE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AROUND  90 DEGREES
COULD BE FOUND FARTHER  SOUTH ALONG THE KS/OK LINE. AN UPPER WESTERLY
JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR ELKHART BY LATE TODAY. A COUPLE
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THIS EVENING, AND A
NARROW BAND  OF CONVECTION  ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE. THE SAME MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/700
MB FRONT AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET IN THE
VICINITY. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO AID SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE REGULATED
TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FLAT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A RETURN TO
WARM WEATHER. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH A WARM SURGE OF AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. WE BUMPED UP HIGHS TO CLOSE TO
100F ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS LIKE LIBERAL. A FAIRLY STRONG
POLAR JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY, LEADING TO LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER NOT BEFORE WE HAVE ONE
MORE ABOVE-AVERAGE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID TO PERHAPS
UPPER 90S. THEN THINGS BECOME QUITE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FRONT
TIMING, STRENGTH, AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THIS
FRONT AND WILL BE CARRYING CHANCE POPS (30-40 PERCENT) THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, ADVECTION OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. WE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE 30 PERCENT POPS INTO FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WITH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AS BOTH MODELS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE GREATER
QPF SIGNAL TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER (MORE
SO BY THE GFS MODEL). THIS IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES IN THE TWO
MODELS END. THE ECMWF ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK KEEPS THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN CHECK WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WARM FRONT, WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE TROUGHING/LOWER
HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MORE ROBUST SURFACE HIGH. GIVEN THE
USUAL BETTER SKILL IN THE DAY 5-6 FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF, THIS
COOLER SOLUTION WOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. OFFICIALLY IN THE GRIDS,
SATURDAY HIGHS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS, BUT SHOULD THE ECMWF RUN
VERIFY, THEN IT WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING EASTERLY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  30  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010918
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TEMPERATURES AND THEN ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THIS SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE 80S BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL LEAVE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AROUND  90 DEGREES
COULD BE FOUND FARTHER  SOUTH ALONG THE KS/OK LINE. AN UPPER WESTERLY
JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR ELKHART BY LATE TODAY. A COUPLE
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THIS EVENING, AND A
NARROW BAND  OF CONVECTION  ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE. THE SAME MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/700
MB FRONT AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET IN THE
VICINITY. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO AID SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH
THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE REGULATED
TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH FLAT
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A RETURN TO
WARM WEATHER. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK WITH A WARM SURGE OF AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST DOWNSLOPING
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO. WE BUMPED UP HIGHS TO CLOSE TO
100F ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AREAS LIKE LIBERAL. A FAIRLY STRONG
POLAR JET STREAK WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY, LEADING TO LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTOGENESIS. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER NOT BEFORE WE HAVE ONE
MORE ABOVE-AVERAGE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE MID TO PERHAPS
UPPER 90S. THEN THINGS BECOME QUITE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FRONT
TIMING, STRENGTH, AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THIS
FRONT AND WILL BE CARRYING CHANCE POPS (30-40 PERCENT) THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, ADVECTION OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. WE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE 30 PERCENT POPS INTO FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WITH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AS BOTH MODELS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE GREATER
QPF SIGNAL TIED TO WARM FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER (MORE
SO BY THE GFS MODEL). THIS IS WHERE THE SIMILARITIES IN THE TWO
MODELS END. THE ECMWF ON SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK KEEPS THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN CHECK WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WARM FRONT, WHICH IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE CHARACTERISTIC OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH JET.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS MORE TROUGHING/LOWER
HEIGHTS WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MORE ROBUST SURFACE HIGH. GIVEN THE
USUAL BETTER SKILL IN THE DAY 5-6 FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF, THIS
COOLER SOLUTION WOULD BE SLIGHTLY FAVORED. OFFICIALLY IN THE GRIDS,
SATURDAY HIGHS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS
IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS, BUT SHOULD THE ECMWF RUN
VERIFY, THEN IT WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TURNING EASTERLY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  30  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010905
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Water vapor imagery showed a broad mid-level trough in place
across the northern U.S. with the shortwave trough that has helped
to support the overnight shower and thunderstorm activity early
this morning centered over the forecast area and shifting
eastward. The cold front associated with this storm system has
been lagging behind the precipitation, with it stretched across
north central Kansas as of 08z. Models still seem to be a bit fast
with the tracking of this frontal passage, but in general expect
it to slowly progress eastward through the day before getting hung
up across east central and southeastern Kansas as the southern
edge of the mid-level trough flattens but continues to dig a bit
further south over the region. With this eastward progression of
the front, will continue to see the widespread showers and
thunderstorms diminish from west to east this morning, with
possibly a few lingering showers over far east central Kansas by
mid-morning. Several short-range models suggest that areas in east
central Kansas may continue to see some isolated showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day as the front stalls over that
area. With this lingering boundary, expect to see a spread in high
temperatures from the low/mid 80s north to the upper 80s/near 90
degrees over east central Kansas where a southerly flow should
prevail for much of the day. This better diurnal heating over east
central Kansas should aid in modest instability developing across
the area this afternoon, which should support additional
thunderstorm development. This initial scattered activity should
become a bit more widespread along the boundary by mid to late
afternoon and into this evening, primarily along and south of I-35
but may extend as far north as around I-70. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible with this activity as MLCAPE values reach upwards
of 2000-3000J/kg with strong 0-6km bulk shear values of 45-55kts.
The primary concerns with these storms will be large hail and
damaging winds, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado threat.
Additionally, there is the potential for localized flooding as
additional moderate to heavy rain is possible over locations that
have already received a few inches of rain from this morning`s
thunderstorms. These storms should diminish during the late
evening hours and shift southward as the cold front gets pushed
south of the forecast area. With light northerly winds and
clearing skies behind this front, expect cooler conditions
overnight with lows dropping into the upper 50s north to mid/upper
60s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The frontal boundary will remain hung up just south of the area on
Tuesday, and model guidance hints at a weak trough moving across
southern KS late in the day. Expect strong instability in east
central and southeast KS with little to no inhibition and 25 to 35
kts of 0-6 km shear. Low-level convergence will be very weak
however, and any thunderstorm development will have to rely on
lift from any weak mid level troughs. Currently have rather low
POPs focused in the far southern portions of the forecast area for
Tuesday afternoon, but if a slightly stronger disturbance can
bring some vertical motion into the area around peak heating,
could see scattered severe storms south of I-70. A strong trough
will move into Montana on Tuesday night with the low level jet
increasing a bit locally overnight. Expect impressive theta-e
advection and moisture transport into east central Kansas and
eventually northeast Kansas overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates
will be in place with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg and effective shear
of 30-40 kts. This should result in scattered to widespread
thunderstorms with large hail possible. Could also see a heavy
rain threat materialize.

Warm advection and ample sunshine by Wednesday point to a hot day
with heat index values possibly topping 100. The warm advection
aloft should also cap surface parcels and expect dry conditions
through Thursday. However, by late in the day on Thursday, a cold
front associated with the northern CONUS trough will approach the
area. Expect strong forcing along the front to result in
widespread thunderstorm development with the main uncertainty
still being the timing of the frontal progression across the
forecast area. The frontal zone seems likely to linger in the area
into the weekend as the main forcing will pass well north. This
will likely be impacted by any organized thunderstorm outflow
though. Elevated instability will remain in place north of the
front although it should diminish over time. Have gradually
decreased precip chances north to south through the weekend as the
surface high should build in stronger with time. Have not made
major changes to temperatures from the prior forecast, and we
still look to be on track for highs in the 70s for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the 06z TAFs, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will
persist through the overnight hours into Monday morning. Some models
are suggesting that areas of fog may develop before sunrise,
especially near KTOP/KFOE. There is still uncertainty with regards
to whether or not this will occur as winds may stay just high enough
to diminish this threat, but went ahead and added a TEMPO group at
this time and will continue to monitor the trends through the
overnight hours. Expect this precipitation to shift south of the TAF
sites during the morning hours with winds veering to the northwest
and eventually north-northeast with the frontal passage. There is a
chance for additional scattered thunderstorm develop late afternoon
into early evening. However, the TAF sites may be near the northern
edge of this precipitation development, so have only mentioned VCTS
at this time due to the uncertainty in the exact location of these
storms. Any storms that do develop near the TAF sites should shift
southward by mid to late evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010905
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
405 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Water vapor imagery showed a broad mid-level trough in place
across the northern U.S. with the shortwave trough that has helped
to support the overnight shower and thunderstorm activity early
this morning centered over the forecast area and shifting
eastward. The cold front associated with this storm system has
been lagging behind the precipitation, with it stretched across
north central Kansas as of 08z. Models still seem to be a bit fast
with the tracking of this frontal passage, but in general expect
it to slowly progress eastward through the day before getting hung
up across east central and southeastern Kansas as the southern
edge of the mid-level trough flattens but continues to dig a bit
further south over the region. With this eastward progression of
the front, will continue to see the widespread showers and
thunderstorms diminish from west to east this morning, with
possibly a few lingering showers over far east central Kansas by
mid-morning. Several short-range models suggest that areas in east
central Kansas may continue to see some isolated showers and
thunderstorms throughout the day as the front stalls over that
area. With this lingering boundary, expect to see a spread in high
temperatures from the low/mid 80s north to the upper 80s/near 90
degrees over east central Kansas where a southerly flow should
prevail for much of the day. This better diurnal heating over east
central Kansas should aid in modest instability developing across
the area this afternoon, which should support additional
thunderstorm development. This initial scattered activity should
become a bit more widespread along the boundary by mid to late
afternoon and into this evening, primarily along and south of I-35
but may extend as far north as around I-70. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible with this activity as MLCAPE values reach upwards
of 2000-3000J/kg with strong 0-6km bulk shear values of 45-55kts.
The primary concerns with these storms will be large hail and
damaging winds, but cannot rule out an isolated tornado threat.
Additionally, there is the potential for localized flooding as
additional moderate to heavy rain is possible over locations that
have already received a few inches of rain from this morning`s
thunderstorms. These storms should diminish during the late
evening hours and shift southward as the cold front gets pushed
south of the forecast area. With light northerly winds and
clearing skies behind this front, expect cooler conditions
overnight with lows dropping into the upper 50s north to mid/upper
60s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The frontal boundary will remain hung up just south of the area on
Tuesday, and model guidance hints at a weak trough moving across
southern KS late in the day. Expect strong instability in east
central and southeast KS with little to no inhibition and 25 to 35
kts of 0-6 km shear. Low-level convergence will be very weak
however, and any thunderstorm development will have to rely on
lift from any weak mid level troughs. Currently have rather low
POPs focused in the far southern portions of the forecast area for
Tuesday afternoon, but if a slightly stronger disturbance can
bring some vertical motion into the area around peak heating,
could see scattered severe storms south of I-70. A strong trough
will move into Montana on Tuesday night with the low level jet
increasing a bit locally overnight. Expect impressive theta-e
advection and moisture transport into east central Kansas and
eventually northeast Kansas overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates
will be in place with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg and effective shear
of 30-40 kts. This should result in scattered to widespread
thunderstorms with large hail possible. Could also see a heavy
rain threat materialize.

Warm advection and ample sunshine by Wednesday point to a hot day
with heat index values possibly topping 100. The warm advection
aloft should also cap surface parcels and expect dry conditions
through Thursday. However, by late in the day on Thursday, a cold
front associated with the northern CONUS trough will approach the
area. Expect strong forcing along the front to result in
widespread thunderstorm development with the main uncertainty
still being the timing of the frontal progression across the
forecast area. The frontal zone seems likely to linger in the area
into the weekend as the main forcing will pass well north. This
will likely be impacted by any organized thunderstorm outflow
though. Elevated instability will remain in place north of the
front although it should diminish over time. Have gradually
decreased precip chances north to south through the weekend as the
surface high should build in stronger with time. Have not made
major changes to temperatures from the prior forecast, and we
still look to be on track for highs in the 70s for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the 06z TAFs, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will
persist through the overnight hours into Monday morning. Some models
are suggesting that areas of fog may develop before sunrise,
especially near KTOP/KFOE. There is still uncertainty with regards
to whether or not this will occur as winds may stay just high enough
to diminish this threat, but went ahead and added a TEMPO group at
this time and will continue to monitor the trends through the
overnight hours. Expect this precipitation to shift south of the TAF
sites during the morning hours with winds veering to the northwest
and eventually north-northeast with the frontal passage. There is a
chance for additional scattered thunderstorm develop late afternoon
into early evening. However, the TAF sites may be near the northern
edge of this precipitation development, so have only mentioned VCTS
at this time due to the uncertainty in the exact location of these
storms. Any storms that do develop near the TAF sites should shift
southward by mid to late evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke





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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010827
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010827
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...RRH


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 010825
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND RENEWED CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW IS
PROGGED TO RACE SOUTHEAST EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TO 45-55 KT. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD ERODE ALONG
THE FRONT RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 22Z
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A
DEVELOPING LLJ WILL AID IN MOIST TRANSPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT LEADING TO
CONTINUED UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN
THE 140-190 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS.

TUE-WED...THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW-MID POPS WITHIN A
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH
VALUES IN THE LOW AND MID 90S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON THU BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRIVES A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS FRI-SAT AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH SAT BEFORE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING...LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
KS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING ON WEST FLANK DUE TO
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...CAN BE EXPECTED AT
RSL...SLN...HUT...AND CNU TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU CENTRAL KS EARLY MONDAY
AM...REACHING SOUTHEAST KS LATE MON PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FROPA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON
PM/EVE IN SOUTHEAST KS NEAR THE FRONT.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  69  90  71 /  30  50  40  30
HUTCHINSON      89  68  90  71 /  20  30  30  30
NEWTON          90  67  89  70 /  30  40  30  30
ELDORADO        93  67  90  70 /  40  50  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  70  90  72 /  50  60  40  30
RUSSELL         85  63  88  68 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      85  64  89  69 /  10  20  20  20
SALINA          90  65  90  71 /  10  20  10  30
MCPHERSON       89  67  89  70 /  20  30  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  71  90  72 /  60  70  40  30
CHANUTE         93  70  89  70 /  60  70  40  40
IOLA            91  69  88  69 /  70  70  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    95  70  89  72 /  60  70  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010747
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES FELL OVER A LIMITED
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ELLIS COUNTY WHERE STORM WERE MOST NUMEROUS
LAST EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PEELED OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
LEAVING THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 CLEAR. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED  BY METAR
WIND AND TEMPERATURE DATA. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WERE OBSERVED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA  BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
STILL HOVERING IN THE LOW 60`S IN THIS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TEMPERATURES AND THEN ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THIS SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE 80S BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL LEAVE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AROUND  90 DEGREES
COULD BE FOUND FARTHER  SOUTH ALONG THE KS/OK LINE. AN UPPER WESTERLY
JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR ELKHART BY LATE TODAY. A COUPLE
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THIS EVENING, AND A
NARROW BAND  OF CONVECTION  ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE. THE SAME MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINICZONE/700
MB FRONT AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPERJET IN THE
VICINITY. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO AID SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WIDESPREAD  SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
WITH THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE REGULATED
TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WNDS TURNING EASTELRY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010747
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
247 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO AROUND 3 INCHES FELL OVER A LIMITED
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST ELLIS COUNTY WHERE STORM WERE MOST NUMEROUS
LAST EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS PEELED OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
LEAVING THE AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 CLEAR. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED  BY METAR
WIND AND TEMPERATURE DATA. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WERE OBSERVED
OVER MOST OF THE AREA  BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
STILL HOVERING IN THE LOW 60`S IN THIS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TEMPERATURES AND THEN ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES IN THIS SHORT TERM. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PROBABLY MAINLY IN THE 80S BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL LEAVE WINDS SLOWLY TURNING EASTERLY WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS AROUND  90 DEGREES
COULD BE FOUND FARTHER  SOUTH ALONG THE KS/OK LINE. AN UPPER WESTERLY
JET WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE NEAR ELKHART BY LATE TODAY. A COUPLE
OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THE STATIONARY FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THIS EVENING, AND A
NARROW BAND  OF CONVECTION  ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE. THE SAME MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL BAROCLINICZONE/700
MB FRONT AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPERJET IN THE
VICINITY. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO AID SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WIDESPREAD  SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY
WITH THIS PATTERN, HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WOULD BE LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE REGULATED
TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WNDS TURNING EASTELRY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010622
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION WAS DOWNTRENDING OVER THE LAST HOUR AROUND THE HYS
TERMINAL. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WNDS TURNING EASTELRY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  89  68 /  10  30  20  10
GCK  86  63  88  67 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  89  63  90  66 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  90  64  91  69 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  83  63  88  66 /  10  20  10  10
P28  90  70  93  71 /  10  50  40  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010609
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AS
TRW/RW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS CLEARED
THE FORECAST AREA. REGION WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS
THRU THE REST OF TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION THRU
12Z MONDAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 010609
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1209 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AS
TRW/RW ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAS CLEARED
THE FORECAST AREA. REGION WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR CONDITIONS
THRU THE REST OF TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION THRU
12Z MONDAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010541
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The midnight through 3 AM period will continue to see at least some
low end potential for marginally severe hail, and perhaps localized
damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms able to downburst and
transport momentum to the surface through the inversion (refer to
recent SPC mesoscale discussion for more details).

Aside from severe potential, the potential for flash flooding is
increasing and could see additional warnings needed during the
overnight hours. The outflow from the complex of storms has pushed
into southern Kansas and stretched west-to-east while the upper
trough and overall storm motion remains east southeast nearly
parallel to the effective boundary. Moisture transport is very
impressive into and over the frontal zone into central and east
central Kansas while precipitable water values are running 2 to 2.2
inches according to RAP analysis. Dual-pol signatures have at times
indicated very heavy rainfall rates to around 2" per hour with the
heaviest activity and spotters have reported 15-20 minute periods
with 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. The orientation of the front and storm
motion suggests training of individual convective updrafts over the
same areas from southern Dickinson through Morris, Lyon, Coffey,
Anderson, southern Osage and southern Franklin counties. Dual-pol
rain estimates as of midnight range from 4" in southern Dickinson
county to 2.5" in Lyon county to 2" in Osage/Franklin counties.
Given current trends and expectations, could end up seeing a broad
swatch of 2 to 5" with locally 6+ inches possible.

There are some indications that the rear edge of the convection is
beginning to forward propagate toward the southeast which may help
put a slightly faster end to the very heavy rain, but should
continue to see development in advance of the upper trough axis and
north of the outflow which could persist even behind any forward
propagating segments. This heavy precip is also falling across the
parts of the area that have been driest as of late, and can handle
more water. However, the torrential rates alone will produce
substantial runoff and may be sufficient for flash flooding even in
the dry conditions.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the 06z TAFs, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will
persist through the overnight hours into Monday morning. Some models
are suggesting that areas of fog may develop before sunrise,
especially near KTOP/KFOE. There is still uncertainty with regards
to whether or not this will occur as winds may stay just high enough
to diminish this threat, but went ahead and added a TEMPO group at
this time and will continue to monitor the trends through the
overnight hours. Expect this precipitation to shift south of the TAF
sites during the morning hours with winds veering to the northwest
and eventually north-northeast with the frontal passage. There is a
chance for additional scattered thunderstorm develop late afternoon
into early evening. However, the TAF sites may be near the northern
edge of this precipitation development, so have only mentioned VCTS
at this time due to the uncertainty in the exact location of these
storms. Any storms that do develop near the TAF sites should shift
southward by mid to late evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 010541
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The midnight through 3 AM period will continue to see at least some
low end potential for marginally severe hail, and perhaps localized
damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms able to downburst and
transport momentum to the surface through the inversion (refer to
recent SPC mesoscale discussion for more details).

Aside from severe potential, the potential for flash flooding is
increasing and could see additional warnings needed during the
overnight hours. The outflow from the complex of storms has pushed
into southern Kansas and stretched west-to-east while the upper
trough and overall storm motion remains east southeast nearly
parallel to the effective boundary. Moisture transport is very
impressive into and over the frontal zone into central and east
central Kansas while precipitable water values are running 2 to 2.2
inches according to RAP analysis. Dual-pol signatures have at times
indicated very heavy rainfall rates to around 2" per hour with the
heaviest activity and spotters have reported 15-20 minute periods
with 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. The orientation of the front and storm
motion suggests training of individual convective updrafts over the
same areas from southern Dickinson through Morris, Lyon, Coffey,
Anderson, southern Osage and southern Franklin counties. Dual-pol
rain estimates as of midnight range from 4" in southern Dickinson
county to 2.5" in Lyon county to 2" in Osage/Franklin counties.
Given current trends and expectations, could end up seeing a broad
swatch of 2 to 5" with locally 6+ inches possible.

There are some indications that the rear edge of the convection is
beginning to forward propagate toward the southeast which may help
put a slightly faster end to the very heavy rain, but should
continue to see development in advance of the upper trough axis and
north of the outflow which could persist even behind any forward
propagating segments. This heavy precip is also falling across the
parts of the area that have been driest as of late, and can handle
more water. However, the torrential rates alone will produce
substantial runoff and may be sufficient for flash flooding even in
the dry conditions.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

For the 06z TAFs, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will
persist through the overnight hours into Monday morning. Some models
are suggesting that areas of fog may develop before sunrise,
especially near KTOP/KFOE. There is still uncertainty with regards
to whether or not this will occur as winds may stay just high enough
to diminish this threat, but went ahead and added a TEMPO group at
this time and will continue to monitor the trends through the
overnight hours. Expect this precipitation to shift south of the TAF
sites during the morning hours with winds veering to the northwest
and eventually north-northeast with the frontal passage. There is a
chance for additional scattered thunderstorm develop late afternoon
into early evening. However, the TAF sites may be near the northern
edge of this precipitation development, so have only mentioned VCTS
at this time due to the uncertainty in the exact location of these
storms. Any storms that do develop near the TAF sites should shift
southward by mid to late evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KGLD 010533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010533
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KICT 010447
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING...LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
KS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING ON WEST FLANK DUE TO
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...CAN BE EXPECTED AT
RSL...SLN...HUT...AND CNU TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU CENTRAL KS EARLY MONDAY
AM...REACHING SOUTHEAST KS LATE MON PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FROPA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON
PM/EVE IN SOUTHEAST KS NEAR THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  90  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  80  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  60  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  80  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  80  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 / 100  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 / 100  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  70  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 / 100  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 010145
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010145
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010145
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010145
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MADE AMENDMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING. FOCUSED POPS WHERE
CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND ELIMINATED POPS TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE
CONVECTION IS FINISHED AND ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED. SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH RIGHT NOW AND THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DROPOFF
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEHIND IT.

BIGGEST CHANGE WAS THE ELIMINATION OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.
INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG WIND
SHEAR IS LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. ONLY MODEST CAPE...500-100-J/KG...REMAINS IN THIS
AREA. WHILE A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...FELT
NO REASON TO KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 312345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPAWN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND WILL CARRY
VCTS FOR THESE FOR A FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH DECREASING WINDS BY 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  89 /  40  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  88 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  90 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  91 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  88 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  93 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 312345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPAWN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF DODGE CITY BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND WILL CARRY
VCTS FOR THESE FOR A FEW HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTH WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH DECREASING WINDS BY 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  89 /  40  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  88 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  90 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  91 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  88 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  93 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KTOP 312336
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convective line timing remains the main concern. Line has still
not congealed with persistent outflow, but appears this process may
be occurring at this time. Have TS mention a bit earlier than
previously expected. Brief to periods of IFR visibilities are
likely given upstream obs. When to end TS is other concern with
additional storms currently behind the front. Have left timing of
this rather similar at this point but will have to monitor trends.
Front should be south of the terminals before redevelopment
occurs in peak heating Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 312336
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convective line timing remains the main concern. Line has still
not congealed with persistent outflow, but appears this process may
be occurring at this time. Have TS mention a bit earlier than
previously expected. Brief to periods of IFR visibilities are
likely given upstream obs. When to end TS is other concern with
additional storms currently behind the front. Have left timing of
this rather similar at this point but will have to monitor trends.
Front should be south of the terminals before redevelopment
occurs in peak heating Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 312336
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convective line timing remains the main concern. Line has still
not congealed with persistent outflow, but appears this process may
be occurring at this time. Have TS mention a bit earlier than
previously expected. Brief to periods of IFR visibilities are
likely given upstream obs. When to end TS is other concern with
additional storms currently behind the front. Have left timing of
this rather similar at this point but will have to monitor trends.
Front should be south of the terminals before redevelopment
occurs in peak heating Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 312336
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
636 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convective line timing remains the main concern. Line has still
not congealed with persistent outflow, but appears this process may
be occurring at this time. Have TS mention a bit earlier than
previously expected. Brief to periods of IFR visibilities are
likely given upstream obs. When to end TS is other concern with
additional storms currently behind the front. Have left timing of
this rather similar at this point but will have to monitor trends.
Front should be south of the terminals before redevelopment
occurs in peak heating Monday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KGLD 312321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 312321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 312321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 312321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TAF CYCLE IS SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORM COULD MOVE
OVER KMCK SHORTLY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR STORMS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MORE CONFIDENT IN STORMS MOVING OVER KMCK SO HAVE A TSRA
TEMPO GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KGLD BUT CONVECTIVE
GROWTH JUST WEST OF LIMON COULD MAKE IT TO KGLD. ONCE STORMS
DIMINISH...CALM WEATHER RETURNS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. SOUTH
WINDS RETURN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KICT 312302
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RSL...SLN...AND POSSIBLY HUT TERMINALS THROUGH 04-06 UTC. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
ANY STORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL
SINK SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SWITCHING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO NORTHERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  50  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  50  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  70  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  90  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 312302
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RSL...SLN...AND POSSIBLY HUT TERMINALS THROUGH 04-06 UTC. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
ANY STORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL
SINK SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SWITCHING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO NORTHERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  50  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  50  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  70  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  90  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 312302
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RSL...SLN...AND POSSIBLY HUT TERMINALS THROUGH 04-06 UTC. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
ANY STORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL
SINK SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SWITCHING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO NORTHERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  50  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  50  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  70  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  90  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 312302
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
RSL...SLN...AND POSSIBLY HUT TERMINALS THROUGH 04-06 UTC. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ALSO LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
ANY STORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST LATE TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL
SINK SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SWITCHING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO NORTHERLY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  50  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  50  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  70  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  90  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 312115
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 312115
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 312115
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 312115
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A BROAD RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AS THE INITIAL LOW CENTER SWINGS THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST AS IS FLATTENED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES.

DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. A RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KTOP 312011
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Only minor changes to the forecasts. Will likely be an hour or two
of fairly persistent TS activity but feel a little better going with
TEMPO at this point and including some wind and further
visibility issues to deal with. Timing is become more certain but
still not completely confident.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 312011
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Only minor changes to the forecasts. Will likely be an hour or two
of fairly persistent TS activity but feel a little better going with
TEMPO at this point and including some wind and further
visibility issues to deal with. Timing is become more certain but
still not completely confident.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 312011
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Only minor changes to the forecasts. Will likely be an hour or two
of fairly persistent TS activity but feel a little better going with
TEMPO at this point and including some wind and further
visibility issues to deal with. Timing is become more certain but
still not completely confident.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 312011
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Elevated activity has weakened and exited with good insolation in
recent hours in weak subsidence allowing for a quick increase in
winds and temps. 19Z surface observations suggest cold front from
south central Nebraska to the SW corner of Kansas with some CU
development on the north end. Recent water vapor imagery shows
main upper wave pushing through southern Wyoming with convection
in NC Colorado well behind the front.

Overall setup continues to support a rather wet next 12-18 hours
with cold front coming into northern and western areas overnight and
upper trough following, with low level jet ramping up to around
60kts. Nearby 12Z observed precipitable water values were at to just
above normal and continued advection of deeper moisture to the south
will pump these values up.

Still having some question on the early hours of the event. With
surface low pressure in far SE Colorado, convergence along the front
is not great, and the main upper trough well behind will not boost
convergence until perhaps the daytime hours of Labor Day. Various
higher resolution models are delayed with the convective initiation
until around 23-0Z and could occur well into the CWA. Dewpoint
depressions should remain in the 25-40F range for somewhat high
cloud bases, but increasing low level wind fields will support
strong low level helicity. Again, with the trough lagging, mid level
winds are somewhat low to support a long-lived supercell, and wind
and hail continue to the be the main severe weather concerns with ML
CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and downdraft CAPE around 1200 J/kg currently
analyzed. The high-res models are also similar with a secondary
impulse of convection moving through in the late evening to
overnight hours, perhaps via a sustained MCS from the current NC
Colorado storms. This could track over northern areas again and
bring an increased flooding concern, but with recent rains spotty at
best, am not confident enough for a Watch. Convection should overall
slowly clear from northwest to central areas overnight.

Cold front still appears to sag south into southern areas for the
afternoon hours of Labor Day. This again is not a clear-cut forecast
with convective activity possibly affecting the location of the
effective front. If at least some insolation can occur, cooling mid
levels behind the upper trough should allow for moderate instability
to again develop along and ahead of the effective front with plenty
of shear to support severe storms. This time, upper winds will be
stronger but weaker near the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

For Monday night and Tuesday, have continued chances for precip as
the expected outflow boundary from tonight`s convection gets hung
up across southeast and south central KS. In general would anticipate
POPs diminishing and becoming increasingly confined to far
southern portions of the forecast area with time through the day
Tuesday as the upper forcing moves east of the area and the low
level jet veers to the southwest decreasing convergence along the
front.

Tuesday night may be more interesting in terms of strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms. Most model guidance is pointing to
strong theta-e advection overnight with good isentropic upglide.
Additionally model forecast soundings have fairly steep mid level
lapse rates with potentially 1000 to 1500 J/km of elevated
instability. The NAM also shows around 30 KTS of effective bulk
shear, so it is not out of the question that there could be some
elevated storms capable of producing large hail. This activity may
linger into Wednesday morning. After that the forecast is
expecting a dry period through Thursday before models bring a
frontal system into the area Thursday night through Friday night.
Because of this boundary, have continued with some chance POPs for
Thursday night through Friday. By Saturday, both the GFS and ECMWF
build a surface ridge into the central plains with dryer air
advecting in. Because of this, have trended POPs down for Saturday
and kept Sunday dry.

Temps are expected to remain warm through Thursday until the
frontal system enters the region with chances for rain. The
warmest days look to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps warm
to around 25C. Therefore have highs in the mid 90s with lows
around 70 to the lower 70s. Temps should trend cooler by the
weekend due to cold air advection behind the front. May see lows
in the 50s with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Only minor changes to the forecasts. Will likely be an hour or two
of fairly persistent TS activity but feel a little better going with
TEMPO at this point and including some wind and further
visibility issues to deal with. Timing is become more certain but
still not completely confident.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KICT 312009
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES AT KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL SIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS OR A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO SEDAN LINE. SOUTH
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH ARE FORECAST AND SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 WILL
PREVAIL.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO SWING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FORM AND RACE
EAST POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KRSL AND KSLN. KHUT WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AT
THIS TIME.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

CWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  40  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  40  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  50  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  70  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 312009
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES AT KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL SIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS OR A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO SEDAN LINE. SOUTH
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH ARE FORECAST AND SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 WILL
PREVAIL.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO SWING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FORM AND RACE
EAST POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KRSL AND KSLN. KHUT WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AT
THIS TIME.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

CWH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  40  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  40  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  40  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  70  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  50  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 /  70  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  40  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 /  40  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  30  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 311947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD
NEARLY COMPLETELY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AT 19Z RAN
FROM A WILD HORSE TO TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY LINE.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE DEGREE OF
COOL DOWN ON MONDAY.

THINK THAT AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS GOING TO BE THE PRIMARY
DISCRIMINATOR FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA NEAR THE FRONT BUT TO THE EAST OF
DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL SEE THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUPERCELL...WHILE COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL
GREATLY DIMINISH THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
THREAT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL HELP BRING AN END TO
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVE SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THINK OVERALL IMPACT
WILL BE SMALL.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311939
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311939
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THE
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFT NORTH
OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
THERE WILL BE IMPROVING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

ON TUESDAY A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON MONDAY BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURE
TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK WELL INTO THE 90S MID WEEK AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE A 5 TO NEAR 9C WARM UP IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z WEDNESDAY TO 00Z THURSDAY. THIS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ALONG WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311914
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
214 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311914
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
214 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311914
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
214 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311914
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
214 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WITH AN 80+ KNOT
250MB JET OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15C AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE KS/CO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS
TO DODGE CITY TO LIBERAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THIS
DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND TREK EASTWARD AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER, THE CAP LOOKS TO BE HARD TO ERODE AND
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO ACTIVITY AT ALL.
MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CAPE AND SHEAR
PROFILES LOOK ADEQUATE FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
OTHERWISE EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH LESSER CHANCES THE FARTHER
SOUTH YOU GO. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
60 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  87  65  88 /  30  10  30  20
GCK  62  86  63  87 /  30  10  20  20
EHA  63  89  63  89 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  65  90  64  90 /  20   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  63  86 /  60  10  20  10
P28  71  90  70  92 /  20  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KGLD 311806
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED QUICKLY ADVANCED ACROSS THE CWA WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING 3-5 DEGREES AS IT PASSES. TEMPS IN THE MID
UPPER 90S LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THINK
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES TO WARM ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO SEE
WEAK/SPOTTY CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE IN
REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...BUT THIS IS WELL REMOVED FROM
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP NEAR FRONT. GIVEN
THE COOLER TEMPS AND STRONG CAP AM LEANING TOWARDS A LATER
INITIATION IN THIS AREA...WITH MOST LIKELY AREA BEING
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION NEAR SOUTHWEST CWA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311806
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED QUICKLY ADVANCED ACROSS THE CWA WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING 3-5 DEGREES AS IT PASSES. TEMPS IN THE MID
UPPER 90S LOOK REASONABLE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THINK
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES TO WARM ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO SEE
WEAK/SPOTTY CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE IN
REGION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...BUT THIS IS WELL REMOVED FROM
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP NEAR FRONT. GIVEN
THE COOLER TEMPS AND STRONG CAP AM LEANING TOWARDS A LATER
INITIATION IN THIS AREA...WITH MOST LIKELY AREA BEING
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION NEAR SOUTHWEST CWA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 311748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 311748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 311748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 311748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT COVERAGE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND
ADVANCING FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP STRONG CAP IN PLACE...BUT STILL
THINK A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE AT TAF LOCATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 23 AND
04Z. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KTOP 311739
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1239 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

--Large Scale Overview---------------
At 3 AM, surface low pressure was centered in north central SD with
a trailing cold front just entering extreme northwest Nebraska. A
modest low level jet was bringing a bit of low level moisture
advection into the central plains. A rather sharp short wave trough
axis was entering western Kansas while stronger short wave energy
and a jet of stronger mid-level westerlies was quickly moving into
Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms had developed in western and north
central KS in advance of the incoming short wave trough and
isentropic ascent on the LLJ ahead of the trough axis.

--Through Early Afternoon------------
The area of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will track
east through the morning hours, likely decreasing in intensity and
coverage after 10 AM or so as the LLJ wanes. Instability is meager
and elevated within this airmass and no severe storms are expected
through early afternoon. As this initial trough axis moves over the
area, expect a period of a few hours of mid-level subsidence in its
wake. Some models suggest that this will aid in a decrease in
boundary layer dewpoints due to the combination of mixing and
subsidence. If this occurs, expect less in the way of afternoon
instability, although low-level moisture would still likely increase
late in the day in advance of the next trough. During this period,
the cold front will advance into central Nebraska and northwest
Kansas while new surface low pressure intensifies over western
Kansas. Temperatures will warm quickly as early clouds dissipate and
move east, with highs likely surging into the middle 90s.

--Mid Afternoon Through Tonight------
Expect thunderstorms to develop near the cold front in central
Nebraska initially, with activity probably increasing into the
locally backed flow ahead of the surface low in western Kansas by
late afternoon. This early activity should move to the northeast and
east, and should for the most part avoid the forecast area this
afternoon. However, this will depend on the cold front location by
mid afternoon, and could see a few of these storms develop into
north central KS as early 4 PM. The effective front will progress
southeast during the evening as the surface low moves into central
KS and the low level jet rapidly intensifies across the entire area.
Enhanced convergence in the frontal zone will result in widespread
thunderstorm development, eventually making its way into the local
forecast area. The southward progression of the front should slow
markedly in the local area during the early morning hours, which
will result in the northern half of the area having a very good
chance for thunderstorms while east central KS will be on the
edge...but will be likely to have storms as well. Even with the
front still in the area by sunrise, the upper wave and associated
thunderstorms should push off to the east by 12Z.

--Specific Hazards--------------------
The main uncertainty in the extent of various hazards lies in some
question of the dominant storm mode at any given time. Early on,
expect supercells and QLCS structure with embedded supercells. As
forcing along the front increases during the evening, expect storm
mode to transition into dominant QLCS or bowing segments with
embedded rotation. LCL heights early in the event are expected to be
rather high locally, so if storms are in the area during the
afternoon and early evening would expect the primary hazards to be
hail and wind...perhaps in combination. As the evening progresses,
the evolution of storm mode will likely begin to favor damaging
winds with embedded areas of hail. The sharply increasing low level
wind shear is likely to maintain a non-zero tornado threat through
the evening and perhaps into the early morning as 0-1 km helicity in
the 300-500 m2/s2 range will be common and LCLs will decrease with
time. Also expect the storms to remain surface based or near-surface
based well into the evening. So, this non-zero tornado threat will
need to be monitored throughout the event, although some recent
model guidance indicates that an increased potential for widespread
damaging winds may be prevalent. In addition, as the front slows its
progression, could see some back-building along the front or perhaps
a series of more than one progressive bow echoes in northeast KS.
Atmospheric moisture content is very high and some parts of northern
KS are a bit saturated so a mainly localized flash flood threat may
materialize later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Monday morning, a broad mid-level trough will be in place over
the Northern Plains with an area of low pressure slowly tracking
eastward over the region. The cold front that will be supporting
thunderstorm development tonight is expected to be very slow moving,
with most models showing this boundary stretching from central to
northeast Kansas by Monday morning and barely exiting east central
Kansas by Monday evening. Some of the thunderstorm activity from an
MCS that may develop overnight tonight near the Kansas/Nebraska
border may linger into the morning hours across far eastern Kansas.
While this scattered thunderstorm activity may diminish during the
morning and early afternoon hours, several models suggest a
redevelopment of storms along and ahead of the boundary across east
central Kansas as a passing embedded shortwave looks to provide
additional support for this storm development. Also, with this
expected brief break in precipitation through the day, it should be
enough to boost temperatures into the upper 80s/near 90 degrees
across east central Kansas, helping to increase the instability
across the region. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
during the afternoon and evening hours as 2000-3000J/kg of CAPE are
possible along with 40-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The primary
threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the mid-level trough associated with this system lifts
toward the Great Lakes region, the mid-level flow will transition to
a more zonal pattern, and it should help to finally push the front
just south of the forecast area Monday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should diminish from north to south Monday night into
Tuesday morning with this slight southward shift in the front.
However, models continue to trend toward having this front lift back
northward over the region as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This boundary, with the support of a few weak embedded shortwaves,
should support additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, however there is still model uncertainty with regards
to the coverage of this thunderstorm activity across the forecast
area. Temperatures should warm up quickly on Wednesday as the
precipitation clears out, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

By Wednesday morning, models show the next mid-level trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest. However, models become more inconsistent
with the development of this trough as it progresses into the
Northern Plains, with the GFS lifting much of the trough into Canada
while the ECMWF deepens the trough over the Rockies and Northern
Plains by the latter part of the week. This translates to model
discrepancies with how far north the mid-level ridge over the
southern U.S. will be able to extend into the Central Plains.
Additionally, while both models agree that this trough will help to
push an area of low pressure through the Central Plains, there are
notable differences in the timing of this next frontal passage. The
ECMWF is more progressive (due to its solution of a deepening
trough) and has the front moving through Thursday night into Friday,
while the GFS is slower and brings the front through Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning. As a result, there is plenty of
uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the week for
precipitation chances, temperatures, and winds. There is the
potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms with this
late-week frontal passage, but it`s difficult to pin down the timing
of these precipitation chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Only minor changes to the forecasts. Will likely be an hour or two
of fairly persistent TS activity but feel a little better going with
TEMPO at this point and including some wind and further
visibility issues to deal with. Timing is become more certain but
still not completely confident.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 311739
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1239 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

--Large Scale Overview---------------
At 3 AM, surface low pressure was centered in north central SD with
a trailing cold front just entering extreme northwest Nebraska. A
modest low level jet was bringing a bit of low level moisture
advection into the central plains. A rather sharp short wave trough
axis was entering western Kansas while stronger short wave energy
and a jet of stronger mid-level westerlies was quickly moving into
Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms had developed in western and north
central KS in advance of the incoming short wave trough and
isentropic ascent on the LLJ ahead of the trough axis.

--Through Early Afternoon------------
The area of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will track
east through the morning hours, likely decreasing in intensity and
coverage after 10 AM or so as the LLJ wanes. Instability is meager
and elevated within this airmass and no severe storms are expected
through early afternoon. As this initial trough axis moves over the
area, expect a period of a few hours of mid-level subsidence in its
wake. Some models suggest that this will aid in a decrease in
boundary layer dewpoints due to the combination of mixing and
subsidence. If this occurs, expect less in the way of afternoon
instability, although low-level moisture would still likely increase
late in the day in advance of the next trough. During this period,
the cold front will advance into central Nebraska and northwest
Kansas while new surface low pressure intensifies over western
Kansas. Temperatures will warm quickly as early clouds dissipate and
move east, with highs likely surging into the middle 90s.

--Mid Afternoon Through Tonight------
Expect thunderstorms to develop near the cold front in central
Nebraska initially, with activity probably increasing into the
locally backed flow ahead of the surface low in western Kansas by
late afternoon. This early activity should move to the northeast and
east, and should for the most part avoid the forecast area this
afternoon. However, this will depend on the cold front location by
mid afternoon, and could see a few of these storms develop into
north central KS as early 4 PM. The effective front will progress
southeast during the evening as the surface low moves into central
KS and the low level jet rapidly intensifies across the entire area.
Enhanced convergence in the frontal zone will result in widespread
thunderstorm development, eventually making its way into the local
forecast area. The southward progression of the front should slow
markedly in the local area during the early morning hours, which
will result in the northern half of the area having a very good
chance for thunderstorms while east central KS will be on the
edge...but will be likely to have storms as well. Even with the
front still in the area by sunrise, the upper wave and associated
thunderstorms should push off to the east by 12Z.

--Specific Hazards--------------------
The main uncertainty in the extent of various hazards lies in some
question of the dominant storm mode at any given time. Early on,
expect supercells and QLCS structure with embedded supercells. As
forcing along the front increases during the evening, expect storm
mode to transition into dominant QLCS or bowing segments with
embedded rotation. LCL heights early in the event are expected to be
rather high locally, so if storms are in the area during the
afternoon and early evening would expect the primary hazards to be
hail and wind...perhaps in combination. As the evening progresses,
the evolution of storm mode will likely begin to favor damaging
winds with embedded areas of hail. The sharply increasing low level
wind shear is likely to maintain a non-zero tornado threat through
the evening and perhaps into the early morning as 0-1 km helicity in
the 300-500 m2/s2 range will be common and LCLs will decrease with
time. Also expect the storms to remain surface based or near-surface
based well into the evening. So, this non-zero tornado threat will
need to be monitored throughout the event, although some recent
model guidance indicates that an increased potential for widespread
damaging winds may be prevalent. In addition, as the front slows its
progression, could see some back-building along the front or perhaps
a series of more than one progressive bow echoes in northeast KS.
Atmospheric moisture content is very high and some parts of northern
KS are a bit saturated so a mainly localized flash flood threat may
materialize later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Monday morning, a broad mid-level trough will be in place over
the Northern Plains with an area of low pressure slowly tracking
eastward over the region. The cold front that will be supporting
thunderstorm development tonight is expected to be very slow moving,
with most models showing this boundary stretching from central to
northeast Kansas by Monday morning and barely exiting east central
Kansas by Monday evening. Some of the thunderstorm activity from an
MCS that may develop overnight tonight near the Kansas/Nebraska
border may linger into the morning hours across far eastern Kansas.
While this scattered thunderstorm activity may diminish during the
morning and early afternoon hours, several models suggest a
redevelopment of storms along and ahead of the boundary across east
central Kansas as a passing embedded shortwave looks to provide
additional support for this storm development. Also, with this
expected brief break in precipitation through the day, it should be
enough to boost temperatures into the upper 80s/near 90 degrees
across east central Kansas, helping to increase the instability
across the region. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
during the afternoon and evening hours as 2000-3000J/kg of CAPE are
possible along with 40-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The primary
threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the mid-level trough associated with this system lifts
toward the Great Lakes region, the mid-level flow will transition to
a more zonal pattern, and it should help to finally push the front
just south of the forecast area Monday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should diminish from north to south Monday night into
Tuesday morning with this slight southward shift in the front.
However, models continue to trend toward having this front lift back
northward over the region as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This boundary, with the support of a few weak embedded shortwaves,
should support additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, however there is still model uncertainty with regards
to the coverage of this thunderstorm activity across the forecast
area. Temperatures should warm up quickly on Wednesday as the
precipitation clears out, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

By Wednesday morning, models show the next mid-level trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest. However, models become more inconsistent
with the development of this trough as it progresses into the
Northern Plains, with the GFS lifting much of the trough into Canada
while the ECMWF deepens the trough over the Rockies and Northern
Plains by the latter part of the week. This translates to model
discrepancies with how far north the mid-level ridge over the
southern U.S. will be able to extend into the Central Plains.
Additionally, while both models agree that this trough will help to
push an area of low pressure through the Central Plains, there are
notable differences in the timing of this next frontal passage. The
ECMWF is more progressive (due to its solution of a deepening
trough) and has the front moving through Thursday night into Friday,
while the GFS is slower and brings the front through Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning. As a result, there is plenty of
uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the week for
precipitation chances, temperatures, and winds. There is the
potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms with this
late-week frontal passage, but it`s difficult to pin down the timing
of these precipitation chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Only minor changes to the forecasts. Will likely be an hour or two
of fairly persistent TS activity but feel a little better going with
TEMPO at this point and including some wind and further
visibility issues to deal with. Timing is become more certain but
still not completely confident.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KICT 311736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES AT KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL SIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS OR A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO SEDAN LINE. SOUTH
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH ARE FORECAST AND SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 WILL
PREVAIL.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO SWING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FORM AND RACE
EAST POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KRSL AND KSLN. KHUT WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AT
THIS TIME.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  20  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  40  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  70  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  40  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 311736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THUNDER CHANCES AT KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT ALL SIGHTS TO THE WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS OR A COTTONWOOD FALLS TO SEDAN LINE. SOUTH
WINDS OF NEAR 30 MPH ARE FORECAST AND SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 40 WILL
PREVAIL.

AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BEGIN TO SWING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION.

IN THE MEAN TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVE EAST. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED CELLS MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND PRODUCE HAIL TO
GOLF BALL SIZE AND HIGH WINDS UP TO 65 MPH. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINEAR FORM AND RACE
EAST POTENTIALLY PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY AFFECT KRSL AND KSLN. KHUT WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AT
THIS TIME.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE COVERED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  20  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  40  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  70  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  40  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 311721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  65  87  65 /  50  30  10  30
GCK 100  62  87  63 /  20  30  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 103  65  91  64 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  97  64  84  63 /  50  60  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A DRYLINE WILL SET UP BETWEEN THE GCK AND DDC TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS FELT ACROSS THE GCK TERMINAL AND
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS FELT AT THE HYS AND DDC TERMINALS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. WINDS
THEN DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HYS AND DDC
TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING BRIEFLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  65  87  65 /  50  30  10  30
GCK 100  62  87  63 /  20  30  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 103  65  91  64 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  97  64  84  63 /  50  60  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311215
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR GCK, DDC, AND HYS FOR A 3 OR 4 HOUR
PERIOD. BY LATE EVENING, THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL MOVE EAST,
LEAVING IN ITS WAKE LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311215
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
715 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND
INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR GCK, DDC, AND HYS FOR A 3 OR 4 HOUR
PERIOD. BY LATE EVENING, THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL MOVE EAST,
LEAVING IN ITS WAKE LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WITH A
MIX OF MID/HIGH CLDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...VCTS/VCSH FOR BOTH SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP LATER TODAY AS STORMS GET MORE ORGANIZED...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY/TIMING. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON 10-20KTS

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/CLD COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AS THE CWA AWAITS
NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER LATER TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BOTH TAF SITES WILL BE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME WITH A
MIX OF MID/HIGH CLDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...VCTS/VCSH FOR BOTH SITES
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP LATER TODAY AS STORMS GET MORE ORGANIZED...BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY/TIMING. WINDS SSW
5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON 10-20KTS

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 311141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

--Large Scale Overview---------------
At 3 AM, surface low pressure was centered in north central SD with
a trailing cold front just entering extreme northwest Nebraska. A
modest low level jet was bringing a bit of low level moisture
advection into the central plains. A rather sharp short wave trough
axis was entering western Kansas while stronger short wave energy
and a jet of stronger mid-level westerlies was quickly moving into
Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms had developed in western and north
central KS in advance of the incoming short wave trough and
isentropic ascent on the LLJ ahead of the trough axis.

--Through Early Afternoon------------
The area of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will track
east through the morning hours, likely decreasing in intensity and
coverage after 10 AM or so as the LLJ wanes. Instability is meager
and elevated within this airmass and no severe storms are expected
through early afternoon. As this initial trough axis moves over the
area, expect a period of a few hours of mid-level subsidence in its
wake. Some models suggest that this will aid in a decrease in
boundary layer dewpoints due to the combination of mixing and
subsidence. If this occurs, expect less in the way of afternoon
instability, although low-level moisture would still likely increase
late in the day in advance of the next trough. During this period,
the cold front will advance into central Nebraska and northwest
Kansas while new surface low pressure intensifies over western
Kansas. Temperatures will warm quickly as early clouds dissipate and
move east, with highs likely surging into the middle 90s.

--Mid Afternoon Through Tonight------
Expect thunderstorms to develop near the cold front in central
Nebraska initially, with activity probably increasing into the
locally backed flow ahead of the surface low in western Kansas by
late afternoon. This early activity should move to the northeast and
east, and should for the most part avoid the forecast area this
afternoon. However, this will depend on the cold front location by
mid afternoon, and could see a few of these storms develop into
north central KS as early 4 PM. The effective front will progress
southeast during the evening as the surface low moves into central
KS and the low level jet rapidly intensifies across the entire area.
Enhanced convergence in the frontal zone will result in widespread
thunderstorm development, eventually making its way into the local
forecast area. The southward progression of the front should slow
markedly in the local area during the early morning hours, which
will result in the northern half of the area having a very good
chance for thunderstorms while east central KS will be on the
edge...but will be likely to have storms as well. Even with the
front still in the area by sunrise, the upper wave and associated
thunderstorms should push off to the east by 12Z.

--Specific Hazards--------------------
The main uncertainty in the extent of various hazards lies in some
question of the dominant storm mode at any given time. Early on,
expect supercells and QLCS structure with embedded supercells. As
forcing along the front increases during the evening, expect storm
mode to transition into dominant QLCS or bowing segments with
embedded rotation. LCL heights early in the event are expected to be
rather high locally, so if storms are in the area during the
afternoon and early evening would expect the primary hazards to be
hail and wind...perhaps in combination. As the evening progresses,
the evolution of storm mode will likely begin to favor damaging
winds with embedded areas of hail. The sharply increasing low level
wind shear is likely to maintain a non-zero tornado threat through
the evening and perhaps into the early morning as 0-1 km helicity in
the 300-500 m2/s2 range will be common and LCLs will decrease with
time. Also expect the storms to remain surface based or near-surface
based well into the evening. So, this non-zero tornado threat will
need to be monitored throughout the event, although some recent
model guidance indicates that an increased potential for widespread
damaging winds may be prevalent. In addition, as the front slows its
progression, could see some back-building along the front or perhaps
a series of more than one progressive bow echoes in northeast KS.
Atmospheric moisture content is very high and some parts of northern
KS are a bit saturated so a mainly localized flash flood threat may
materialize later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Monday morning, a broad mid-level trough will be in place over
the Northern Plains with an area of low pressure slowly tracking
eastward over the region. The cold front that will be supporting
thunderstorm development tonight is expected to be very slow moving,
with most models showing this boundary stretching from central to
northeast Kansas by Monday morning and barely exiting east central
Kansas by Monday evening. Some of the thunderstorm activity from an
MCS that may develop overnight tonight near the Kansas/Nebraska
border may linger into the morning hours across far eastern Kansas.
While this scattered thunderstorm activity may diminish during the
morning and early afternoon hours, several models suggest a
redevelopment of storms along and ahead of the boundary across east
central Kansas as a passing embedded shortwave looks to provide
additional support for this storm development. Also, with this
expected brief break in precipitation through the day, it should be
enough to boost temperatures into the upper 80s/near 90 degrees
across east central Kansas, helping to increase the instability
across the region. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
during the afternoon and evening hours as 2000-3000J/kg of CAPE are
possible along with 40-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The primary
threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the mid-level trough associated with this system lifts
toward the Great Lakes region, the mid-level flow will transition to
a more zonal pattern, and it should help to finally push the front
just south of the forecast area Monday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should diminish from north to south Monday night into
Tuesday morning with this slight southward shift in the front.
However, models continue to trend toward having this front lift back
northward over the region as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This boundary, with the support of a few weak embedded shortwaves,
should support additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, however there is still model uncertainty with regards
to the coverage of this thunderstorm activity across the forecast
area. Temperatures should warm up quickly on Wednesday as the
precipitation clears out, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

By Wednesday morning, models show the next mid-level trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest. However, models become more inconsistent
with the development of this trough as it progresses into the
Northern Plains, with the GFS lifting much of the trough into Canada
while the ECMWF deepens the trough over the Rockies and Northern
Plains by the latter part of the week. This translates to model
discrepancies with how far north the mid-level ridge over the
southern U.S. will be able to extend into the Central Plains.
Additionally, while both models agree that this trough will help to
push an area of low pressure through the Central Plains, there are
notable differences in the timing of this next frontal passage. The
ECMWF is more progressive (due to its solution of a deepening
trough) and has the front moving through Thursday night into Friday,
while the GFS is slower and brings the front through Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning. As a result, there is plenty of
uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the week for
precipitation chances, temperatures, and winds. There is the
potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms with this
late-week frontal passage, but it`s difficult to pin down the timing
of these precipitation chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A round of scattered thunderstorms will likely impact MHK between
12Z and 16Z, with primarily VFR conditions likely even during TS.
These TS may make it as far east as TOP/FOE, but expect weakening
and they should dissipate as they move east. Will have gusty
south winds for much of the day/evening, but otherwise VFR until
strong thunderstorms impact TAF sites this evening into the early
morning. These TS may produce damaging winds as well as large
hail. Expect IFR conditions or worse during strongest storms but
with uncertainty in exact timing, have highlighted the general
time frame with MVFR vis.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 311141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

--Large Scale Overview---------------
At 3 AM, surface low pressure was centered in north central SD with
a trailing cold front just entering extreme northwest Nebraska. A
modest low level jet was bringing a bit of low level moisture
advection into the central plains. A rather sharp short wave trough
axis was entering western Kansas while stronger short wave energy
and a jet of stronger mid-level westerlies was quickly moving into
Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms had developed in western and north
central KS in advance of the incoming short wave trough and
isentropic ascent on the LLJ ahead of the trough axis.

--Through Early Afternoon------------
The area of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will track
east through the morning hours, likely decreasing in intensity and
coverage after 10 AM or so as the LLJ wanes. Instability is meager
and elevated within this airmass and no severe storms are expected
through early afternoon. As this initial trough axis moves over the
area, expect a period of a few hours of mid-level subsidence in its
wake. Some models suggest that this will aid in a decrease in
boundary layer dewpoints due to the combination of mixing and
subsidence. If this occurs, expect less in the way of afternoon
instability, although low-level moisture would still likely increase
late in the day in advance of the next trough. During this period,
the cold front will advance into central Nebraska and northwest
Kansas while new surface low pressure intensifies over western
Kansas. Temperatures will warm quickly as early clouds dissipate and
move east, with highs likely surging into the middle 90s.

--Mid Afternoon Through Tonight------
Expect thunderstorms to develop near the cold front in central
Nebraska initially, with activity probably increasing into the
locally backed flow ahead of the surface low in western Kansas by
late afternoon. This early activity should move to the northeast and
east, and should for the most part avoid the forecast area this
afternoon. However, this will depend on the cold front location by
mid afternoon, and could see a few of these storms develop into
north central KS as early 4 PM. The effective front will progress
southeast during the evening as the surface low moves into central
KS and the low level jet rapidly intensifies across the entire area.
Enhanced convergence in the frontal zone will result in widespread
thunderstorm development, eventually making its way into the local
forecast area. The southward progression of the front should slow
markedly in the local area during the early morning hours, which
will result in the northern half of the area having a very good
chance for thunderstorms while east central KS will be on the
edge...but will be likely to have storms as well. Even with the
front still in the area by sunrise, the upper wave and associated
thunderstorms should push off to the east by 12Z.

--Specific Hazards--------------------
The main uncertainty in the extent of various hazards lies in some
question of the dominant storm mode at any given time. Early on,
expect supercells and QLCS structure with embedded supercells. As
forcing along the front increases during the evening, expect storm
mode to transition into dominant QLCS or bowing segments with
embedded rotation. LCL heights early in the event are expected to be
rather high locally, so if storms are in the area during the
afternoon and early evening would expect the primary hazards to be
hail and wind...perhaps in combination. As the evening progresses,
the evolution of storm mode will likely begin to favor damaging
winds with embedded areas of hail. The sharply increasing low level
wind shear is likely to maintain a non-zero tornado threat through
the evening and perhaps into the early morning as 0-1 km helicity in
the 300-500 m2/s2 range will be common and LCLs will decrease with
time. Also expect the storms to remain surface based or near-surface
based well into the evening. So, this non-zero tornado threat will
need to be monitored throughout the event, although some recent
model guidance indicates that an increased potential for widespread
damaging winds may be prevalent. In addition, as the front slows its
progression, could see some back-building along the front or perhaps
a series of more than one progressive bow echoes in northeast KS.
Atmospheric moisture content is very high and some parts of northern
KS are a bit saturated so a mainly localized flash flood threat may
materialize later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Monday morning, a broad mid-level trough will be in place over
the Northern Plains with an area of low pressure slowly tracking
eastward over the region. The cold front that will be supporting
thunderstorm development tonight is expected to be very slow moving,
with most models showing this boundary stretching from central to
northeast Kansas by Monday morning and barely exiting east central
Kansas by Monday evening. Some of the thunderstorm activity from an
MCS that may develop overnight tonight near the Kansas/Nebraska
border may linger into the morning hours across far eastern Kansas.
While this scattered thunderstorm activity may diminish during the
morning and early afternoon hours, several models suggest a
redevelopment of storms along and ahead of the boundary across east
central Kansas as a passing embedded shortwave looks to provide
additional support for this storm development. Also, with this
expected brief break in precipitation through the day, it should be
enough to boost temperatures into the upper 80s/near 90 degrees
across east central Kansas, helping to increase the instability
across the region. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
during the afternoon and evening hours as 2000-3000J/kg of CAPE are
possible along with 40-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The primary
threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the mid-level trough associated with this system lifts
toward the Great Lakes region, the mid-level flow will transition to
a more zonal pattern, and it should help to finally push the front
just south of the forecast area Monday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should diminish from north to south Monday night into
Tuesday morning with this slight southward shift in the front.
However, models continue to trend toward having this front lift back
northward over the region as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This boundary, with the support of a few weak embedded shortwaves,
should support additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, however there is still model uncertainty with regards
to the coverage of this thunderstorm activity across the forecast
area. Temperatures should warm up quickly on Wednesday as the
precipitation clears out, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

By Wednesday morning, models show the next mid-level trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest. However, models become more inconsistent
with the development of this trough as it progresses into the
Northern Plains, with the GFS lifting much of the trough into Canada
while the ECMWF deepens the trough over the Rockies and Northern
Plains by the latter part of the week. This translates to model
discrepancies with how far north the mid-level ridge over the
southern U.S. will be able to extend into the Central Plains.
Additionally, while both models agree that this trough will help to
push an area of low pressure through the Central Plains, there are
notable differences in the timing of this next frontal passage. The
ECMWF is more progressive (due to its solution of a deepening
trough) and has the front moving through Thursday night into Friday,
while the GFS is slower and brings the front through Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning. As a result, there is plenty of
uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the week for
precipitation chances, temperatures, and winds. There is the
potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms with this
late-week frontal passage, but it`s difficult to pin down the timing
of these precipitation chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A round of scattered thunderstorms will likely impact MHK between
12Z and 16Z, with primarily VFR conditions likely even during TS.
These TS may make it as far east as TOP/FOE, but expect weakening
and they should dissipate as they move east. Will have gusty
south winds for much of the day/evening, but otherwise VFR until
strong thunderstorms impact TAF sites this evening into the early
morning. These TS may produce damaging winds as well as large
hail. Expect IFR conditions or worse during strongest storms but
with uncertainty in exact timing, have highlighted the general
time frame with MVFR vis.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KICT 311141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT
KSLN THROUGH 15Z OR SO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW/POOLING DEWPOINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER
08-10Z...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KTOP 311141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

--Large Scale Overview---------------
At 3 AM, surface low pressure was centered in north central SD with
a trailing cold front just entering extreme northwest Nebraska. A
modest low level jet was bringing a bit of low level moisture
advection into the central plains. A rather sharp short wave trough
axis was entering western Kansas while stronger short wave energy
and a jet of stronger mid-level westerlies was quickly moving into
Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms had developed in western and north
central KS in advance of the incoming short wave trough and
isentropic ascent on the LLJ ahead of the trough axis.

--Through Early Afternoon------------
The area of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will track
east through the morning hours, likely decreasing in intensity and
coverage after 10 AM or so as the LLJ wanes. Instability is meager
and elevated within this airmass and no severe storms are expected
through early afternoon. As this initial trough axis moves over the
area, expect a period of a few hours of mid-level subsidence in its
wake. Some models suggest that this will aid in a decrease in
boundary layer dewpoints due to the combination of mixing and
subsidence. If this occurs, expect less in the way of afternoon
instability, although low-level moisture would still likely increase
late in the day in advance of the next trough. During this period,
the cold front will advance into central Nebraska and northwest
Kansas while new surface low pressure intensifies over western
Kansas. Temperatures will warm quickly as early clouds dissipate and
move east, with highs likely surging into the middle 90s.

--Mid Afternoon Through Tonight------
Expect thunderstorms to develop near the cold front in central
Nebraska initially, with activity probably increasing into the
locally backed flow ahead of the surface low in western Kansas by
late afternoon. This early activity should move to the northeast and
east, and should for the most part avoid the forecast area this
afternoon. However, this will depend on the cold front location by
mid afternoon, and could see a few of these storms develop into
north central KS as early 4 PM. The effective front will progress
southeast during the evening as the surface low moves into central
KS and the low level jet rapidly intensifies across the entire area.
Enhanced convergence in the frontal zone will result in widespread
thunderstorm development, eventually making its way into the local
forecast area. The southward progression of the front should slow
markedly in the local area during the early morning hours, which
will result in the northern half of the area having a very good
chance for thunderstorms while east central KS will be on the
edge...but will be likely to have storms as well. Even with the
front still in the area by sunrise, the upper wave and associated
thunderstorms should push off to the east by 12Z.

--Specific Hazards--------------------
The main uncertainty in the extent of various hazards lies in some
question of the dominant storm mode at any given time. Early on,
expect supercells and QLCS structure with embedded supercells. As
forcing along the front increases during the evening, expect storm
mode to transition into dominant QLCS or bowing segments with
embedded rotation. LCL heights early in the event are expected to be
rather high locally, so if storms are in the area during the
afternoon and early evening would expect the primary hazards to be
hail and wind...perhaps in combination. As the evening progresses,
the evolution of storm mode will likely begin to favor damaging
winds with embedded areas of hail. The sharply increasing low level
wind shear is likely to maintain a non-zero tornado threat through
the evening and perhaps into the early morning as 0-1 km helicity in
the 300-500 m2/s2 range will be common and LCLs will decrease with
time. Also expect the storms to remain surface based or near-surface
based well into the evening. So, this non-zero tornado threat will
need to be monitored throughout the event, although some recent
model guidance indicates that an increased potential for widespread
damaging winds may be prevalent. In addition, as the front slows its
progression, could see some back-building along the front or perhaps
a series of more than one progressive bow echoes in northeast KS.
Atmospheric moisture content is very high and some parts of northern
KS are a bit saturated so a mainly localized flash flood threat may
materialize later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Monday morning, a broad mid-level trough will be in place over
the Northern Plains with an area of low pressure slowly tracking
eastward over the region. The cold front that will be supporting
thunderstorm development tonight is expected to be very slow moving,
with most models showing this boundary stretching from central to
northeast Kansas by Monday morning and barely exiting east central
Kansas by Monday evening. Some of the thunderstorm activity from an
MCS that may develop overnight tonight near the Kansas/Nebraska
border may linger into the morning hours across far eastern Kansas.
While this scattered thunderstorm activity may diminish during the
morning and early afternoon hours, several models suggest a
redevelopment of storms along and ahead of the boundary across east
central Kansas as a passing embedded shortwave looks to provide
additional support for this storm development. Also, with this
expected brief break in precipitation through the day, it should be
enough to boost temperatures into the upper 80s/near 90 degrees
across east central Kansas, helping to increase the instability
across the region. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
during the afternoon and evening hours as 2000-3000J/kg of CAPE are
possible along with 40-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The primary
threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the mid-level trough associated with this system lifts
toward the Great Lakes region, the mid-level flow will transition to
a more zonal pattern, and it should help to finally push the front
just south of the forecast area Monday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should diminish from north to south Monday night into
Tuesday morning with this slight southward shift in the front.
However, models continue to trend toward having this front lift back
northward over the region as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This boundary, with the support of a few weak embedded shortwaves,
should support additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, however there is still model uncertainty with regards
to the coverage of this thunderstorm activity across the forecast
area. Temperatures should warm up quickly on Wednesday as the
precipitation clears out, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

By Wednesday morning, models show the next mid-level trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest. However, models become more inconsistent
with the development of this trough as it progresses into the
Northern Plains, with the GFS lifting much of the trough into Canada
while the ECMWF deepens the trough over the Rockies and Northern
Plains by the latter part of the week. This translates to model
discrepancies with how far north the mid-level ridge over the
southern U.S. will be able to extend into the Central Plains.
Additionally, while both models agree that this trough will help to
push an area of low pressure through the Central Plains, there are
notable differences in the timing of this next frontal passage. The
ECMWF is more progressive (due to its solution of a deepening
trough) and has the front moving through Thursday night into Friday,
while the GFS is slower and brings the front through Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning. As a result, there is plenty of
uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the week for
precipitation chances, temperatures, and winds. There is the
potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms with this
late-week frontal passage, but it`s difficult to pin down the timing
of these precipitation chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A round of scattered thunderstorms will likely impact MHK between
12Z and 16Z, with primarily VFR conditions likely even during TS.
These TS may make it as far east as TOP/FOE, but expect weakening
and they should dissipate as they move east. Will have gusty
south winds for much of the day/evening, but otherwise VFR until
strong thunderstorms impact TAF sites this evening into the early
morning. These TS may produce damaging winds as well as large
hail. Expect IFR conditions or worse during strongest storms but
with uncertainty in exact timing, have highlighted the general
time frame with MVFR vis.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KICT 311141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT
KSLN THROUGH 15Z OR SO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW/POOLING DEWPOINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER
08-10Z...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 311141
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY IMPACT
KSLN THROUGH 15Z OR SO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND
DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. MEANWHILE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TOWARD 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW/POOLING DEWPOINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AFTER
08-10Z...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ABUNDANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 310921
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
421 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

--Large Scale Overview---------------
At 3 AM, surface low pressure was centered in north central SD with
a trailing cold front just entering extreme northwest Nebraska. A
modest low level jet was bringing a bit of low level moisture
advection into the central plains. A rather sharp short wave trough
axis was entering western Kansas while stronger short wave energy
and a jet of stronger mid-level westerlies was quickly moving into
Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms had developed in western and north
central KS in advance of the incoming short wave trough and
isentropic ascent on the LLJ ahead of the trough axis.

--Through Early Afternoon------------
The area of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will track
east through the morning hours, likely decreasing in intensity and
coverage after 10 AM or so as the LLJ wanes. Instability is meager
and elevated within this airmass and no severe storms are expected
through early afternoon. As this initial trough axis moves over the
area, expect a period of a few hours of mid-level subsidence in its
wake. Some models suggest that this will aid in a decrease in
boundary layer dewpoints due to the combination of mixing and
subsidence. If this occurs, expect less in the way of afternoon
instability, although low-level moisture would still likely increase
late in the day in advance of the next trough. During this period,
the cold front will advance into central Nebraska and northwest
Kansas while new surface low pressure intensifies over western
Kansas. Temperatures will warm quickly as early clouds dissipate and
move east, with highs likely surging into the middle 90s.

--Mid Afternoon Through Tonight------
Expect thunderstorms to develop near the cold front in central
Nebraska initially, with activity probably increasing into the
locally backed flow ahead of the surface low in western Kansas by
late afternoon. This early activity should move to the northeast and
east, and should for the most part avoid the forecast area this
afternoon. However, this will depend on the cold front location by
mid afternoon, and could see a few of these storms develop into
north central KS as early 4 PM. The effective front will progress
southeast during the evening as the surface low moves into central
KS and the low level jet rapidly intensifies across the entire area.
Enhanced convergence in the frontal zone will result in widespread
thunderstorm development, eventually making its way into the local
forecast area. The southward progression of the front should slow
markedly in the local area during the early morning hours, which
will result in the northern half of the area having a very good
chance for thunderstorms while east central KS will be on the
edge...but will be likely to have storms as well. Even with the
front still in the area by sunrise, the upper wave and associated
thunderstorms should push off to the east by 12Z.

--Specific Hazards--------------------
The main uncertainty in the extent of various hazards lies in some
question of the dominant storm mode at any given time. Early on,
expect supercells and QLCS structure with embedded supercells. As
forcing along the front increases during the evening, expect storm
mode to transition into dominant QLCS or bowing segments with
embedded rotation. LCL heights early in the event are expected to be
rather high locally, so if storms are in the area during the
afternoon and early evening would expect the primary hazards to be
hail and wind...perhaps in combination. As the evening progresses,
the evolution of storm mode will likely begin to favor damaging
winds with embedded areas of hail. The sharply increasing low level
wind shear is likely to maintain a non-zero tornado threat through
the evening and perhaps into the early morning as 0-1 km helicity in
the 300-500 m2/s2 range will be common and LCLs will decrease with
time. Also expect the storms to remain surface based or near-surface
based well into the evening. So, this non-zero tornado threat will
need to be monitored throughout the event, although some recent
model guidance indicates that an increased potential for widespread
damaging winds may be prevalent. In addition, as the front slows its
progression, could see some back-building along the front or perhaps
a series of more than one progressive bow echoes in northeast KS.
Atmospheric moisture content is very high and some parts of northern
KS are a bit saturated so a mainly localized flash flood threat may
materialize later tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Monday morning, a broad mid-level trough will be in place over
the Northern Plains with an area of low pressure slowly tracking
eastward over the region. The cold front that will be supporting
thunderstorm development tonight is expected to be very slow moving,
with most models showing this boundary stretching from central to
northeast Kansas by Monday morning and barely exiting east central
Kansas by Monday evening. Some of the thunderstorm activity from an
MCS that may develop overnight tonight near the Kansas/Nebraska
border may linger into the morning hours across far eastern Kansas.
While this scattered thunderstorm activity may diminish during the
morning and early afternoon hours, several models suggest a
redevelopment of storms along and ahead of the boundary across east
central Kansas as a passing embedded shortwave looks to provide
additional support for this storm development. Also, with this
expected brief break in precipitation through the day, it should be
enough to boost temperatures into the upper 80s/near 90 degrees
across east central Kansas, helping to increase the instability
across the region. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
during the afternoon and evening hours as 2000-3000J/kg of CAPE are
possible along with 40-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The primary
threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the mid-level trough associated with this system lifts
toward the Great Lakes region, the mid-level flow will transition to
a more zonal pattern, and it should help to finally push the front
just south of the forecast area Monday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should diminish from north to south Monday night into
Tuesday morning with this slight southward shift in the front.
However, models continue to trend toward having this front lift back
northward over the region as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This boundary, with the support of a few weak embedded shortwaves,
should support additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, however there is still model uncertainty with regards
to the coverage of this thunderstorm activity across the forecast
area. Temperatures should warm up quickly on Wednesday as the
precipitation clears out, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

By Wednesday morning, models show the next mid-level trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest. However, models become more inconsistent
with the development of this trough as it progresses into the
Northern Plains, with the GFS lifting much of the trough into Canada
while the ECMWF deepens the trough over the Rockies and Northern
Plains by the latter part of the week. This translates to model
discrepancies with how far north the mid-level ridge over the
southern U.S. will be able to extend into the Central Plains.
Additionally, while both models agree that this trough will help to
push an area of low pressure through the Central Plains, there are
notable differences in the timing of this next frontal passage. The
ECMWF is more progressive (due to its solution of a deepening
trough) and has the front moving through Thursday night into Friday,
while the GFS is slower and brings the front through Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning. As a result, there is plenty of
uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the week for
precipitation chances, temperatures, and winds. There is the
potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms with this
late-week frontal passage, but it`s difficult to pin down the timing
of these precipitation chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours. As the
low-level jet increases to 30 KTS there may be some moderate low-level
shear at the terminals from 9Z through 14Z SUN. Thunderstorm
chances will increase Sunday evening and have included VCTS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 310921
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
421 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

--Large Scale Overview---------------
At 3 AM, surface low pressure was centered in north central SD with
a trailing cold front just entering extreme northwest Nebraska. A
modest low level jet was bringing a bit of low level moisture
advection into the central plains. A rather sharp short wave trough
axis was entering western Kansas while stronger short wave energy
and a jet of stronger mid-level westerlies was quickly moving into
Wyoming. Scattered thunderstorms had developed in western and north
central KS in advance of the incoming short wave trough and
isentropic ascent on the LLJ ahead of the trough axis.

--Through Early Afternoon------------
The area of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will track
east through the morning hours, likely decreasing in intensity and
coverage after 10 AM or so as the LLJ wanes. Instability is meager
and elevated within this airmass and no severe storms are expected
through early afternoon. As this initial trough axis moves over the
area, expect a period of a few hours of mid-level subsidence in its
wake. Some models suggest that this will aid in a decrease in
boundary layer dewpoints due to the combination of mixing and
subsidence. If this occurs, expect less in the way of afternoon
instability, although low-level moisture would still likely increase
late in the day in advance of the next trough. During this period,
the cold front will advance into central Nebraska and northwest
Kansas while new surface low pressure intensifies over western
Kansas. Temperatures will warm quickly as early clouds dissipate and
move east, with highs likely surging into the middle 90s.

--Mid Afternoon Through Tonight------
Expect thunderstorms to develop near the cold front in central
Nebraska initially, with activity probably increasing into the
locally backed flow ahead of the surface low in western Kansas by
late afternoon. This early activity should move to the northeast and
east, and should for the most part avoid the forecast area this
afternoon. However, this will depend on the cold front location by
mid afternoon, and could see a few of these storms develop into
north central KS as early 4 PM. The effective front will progress
southeast during the evening as the surface low moves into central
KS and the low level jet rapidly intensifies across the entire area.
Enhanced convergence in the frontal zone will result in widespread
thunderstorm development, eventually making its way into the local
forecast area. The southward progression of the front should slow
markedly in the local area during the early morning hours, which
will result in the northern half of the area having a very good
chance for thunderstorms while east central KS will be on the
edge...but will be likely to have storms as well. Even with the
front still in the area by sunrise, the upper wave and associated
thunderstorms should push off to the east by 12Z.

--Specific Hazards--------------------
The main uncertainty in the extent of various hazards lies in some
question of the dominant storm mode at any given time. Early on,
expect supercells and QLCS structure with embedded supercells. As
forcing along the front increases during the evening, expect storm
mode to transition into dominant QLCS or bowing segments with
embedded rotation. LCL heights early in the event are expected to be
rather high locally, so if storms are in the area during the
afternoon and early evening would expect the primary hazards to be
hail and wind...perhaps in combination. As the evening progresses,
the evolution of storm mode will likely begin to favor damaging
winds with embedded areas of hail. The sharply increasing low level
wind shear is likely to maintain a non-zero tornado threat through
the evening and perhaps into the early morning as 0-1 km helicity in
the 300-500 m2/s2 range will be common and LCLs will decrease with
time. Also expect the storms to remain surface based or near-surface
based well into the evening. So, this non-zero tornado threat will
need to be monitored throughout the event, although some recent
model guidance indicates that an increased potential for widespread
damaging winds may be prevalent. In addition, as the front slows its
progression, could see some back-building along the front or perhaps
a series of more than one progressive bow echoes in northeast KS.
Atmospheric moisture content is very high and some parts of northern
KS are a bit saturated so a mainly localized flash flood threat may
materialize later tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 418 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

By Monday morning, a broad mid-level trough will be in place over
the Northern Plains with an area of low pressure slowly tracking
eastward over the region. The cold front that will be supporting
thunderstorm development tonight is expected to be very slow moving,
with most models showing this boundary stretching from central to
northeast Kansas by Monday morning and barely exiting east central
Kansas by Monday evening. Some of the thunderstorm activity from an
MCS that may develop overnight tonight near the Kansas/Nebraska
border may linger into the morning hours across far eastern Kansas.
While this scattered thunderstorm activity may diminish during the
morning and early afternoon hours, several models suggest a
redevelopment of storms along and ahead of the boundary across east
central Kansas as a passing embedded shortwave looks to provide
additional support for this storm development. Also, with this
expected brief break in precipitation through the day, it should be
enough to boost temperatures into the upper 80s/near 90 degrees
across east central Kansas, helping to increase the instability
across the region. Some of these storms may be strong to severe
during the afternoon and evening hours as 2000-3000J/kg of CAPE are
possible along with 40-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The primary
threats with the strongest storms will be large hail and damaging
winds. As the mid-level trough associated with this system lifts
toward the Great Lakes region, the mid-level flow will transition to
a more zonal pattern, and it should help to finally push the front
just south of the forecast area Monday night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms should diminish from north to south Monday night into
Tuesday morning with this slight southward shift in the front.
However, models continue to trend toward having this front lift back
northward over the region as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This boundary, with the support of a few weak embedded shortwaves,
should support additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development, however there is still model uncertainty with regards
to the coverage of this thunderstorm activity across the forecast
area. Temperatures should warm up quickly on Wednesday as the
precipitation clears out, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

By Wednesday morning, models show the next mid-level trough moving
into the Pacific Northwest. However, models become more inconsistent
with the development of this trough as it progresses into the
Northern Plains, with the GFS lifting much of the trough into Canada
while the ECMWF deepens the trough over the Rockies and Northern
Plains by the latter part of the week. This translates to model
discrepancies with how far north the mid-level ridge over the
southern U.S. will be able to extend into the Central Plains.
Additionally, while both models agree that this trough will help to
push an area of low pressure through the Central Plains, there are
notable differences in the timing of this next frontal passage. The
ECMWF is more progressive (due to its solution of a deepening
trough) and has the front moving through Thursday night into Friday,
while the GFS is slower and brings the front through Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning. As a result, there is plenty of
uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the week for
precipitation chances, temperatures, and winds. There is the
potential for more widespread showers and thunderstorms with this
late-week frontal passage, but it`s difficult to pin down the timing
of these precipitation chances at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours. As the
low-level jet increases to 30 KTS there may be some moderate low-level
shear at the terminals from 9Z through 14Z SUN. Thunderstorm
chances will increase Sunday evening and have included VCTS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KDDC 310917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...33



000
FXUS63 KDDC 310917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA
INTO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT FOLLOWING TONIGHTS STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODEST TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND WE
WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-800MB
LAYER, SUPPORTING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS WHERE WE WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS (AROUND 40 PERCENT). THIS FRONTAL ZONE
WILL NOT MOVE TUESDAY, AND WE WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SEPTEMBER (MID TO UPPER 80S AS A RULE). THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSOLVE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FIELD BEGINS TO RESPOND TO LOWER PRESSURE MUCH
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE POLAR JET WILL BE LOCATED. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MID-WEEK WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH WEAK ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAYS NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 95-100F RANGE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN POLAR JET STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS MENTIONED WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PRAIRIES
LATE IN THE WEEK, USHERING IN SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REACH KANSAS BY END OF
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL OF COOLER/WETTER WEATHER SEPTEMBER 6-8 TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...33




000
FXUS63 KICT 310838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 310838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 310838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 310838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THROUGH MID AFTERNOON:
ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE AND STILL EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FLINT
HILLS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EITHER MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS
MOST LIKELY AROUND 0000 UTC. CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES IN
CONVECTIVE INDICES...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DYNAMICS. AS FOR EVOLUTION...LATEST
ARW-NNM HAD FAIRLY DECENT DEPICTION OF ANTICIPATED AREA/TIMING.
COMBO OF STOUT CAP AND LESS CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IN ABSENCE OF LARGER THAN
ANTICIPATED COLD POOL. THE TRACK OF MCS IS GENERALLY EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPANDING SPATIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS.

MON-TUE:
MCS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER A BIT ON MON...BUT NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
OR EAST NORTHEAST/WEST SOUTHWEST ORIENTED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON BOUNDARY. SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ROUGHLY OVER FLINT HILLS...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS/INSTABILITY. GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL
NOCTURNAL RAINFALL GIVEN ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY/FLOW ALOFT AND
LIKELIHOOD OF TRAINING STORMS MON NIGHT. ON TUE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
COME TUE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND FRONT/RICHER MOISTURE
LIFTS BACK NORTH. MAXES WILL REMAIN TRICKY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND/OR EXTENSIVE CLOUDS TO SIGNIFICANTLY SUPPRESS MAXES.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON WED-THU WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING WED AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED.
BOTH TEMPERATURES/WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED AND PERSIST ON THU.
HOWEVER ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY BY LATE THU AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF DEPICTS A FAIRLY STRONG WAVE RACING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH FORCES FRONT AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA MUCH FASTER THAN GFS. BY FRI NIGHT
GFS HAS PUSHED FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS...WHILE ECMWF HAS IT WELL
INTO OK/AR. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    96  75  91  68 /  10  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      96  71  88  68 /  10  30  20  40
NEWTON          95  72  89  67 /  10  40  30  40
ELDORADO        95  74  92  67 /  10  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   96  76  94  69 /  10  20  40  50
RUSSELL         97  66  83  64 /  20  70  10  20
GREAT BEND      97  67  85  65 /  20  50  10  30
SALINA          97  70  84  65 /  20  70  20  20
MCPHERSON       96  70  87  67 /  20  50  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     96  76  92  71 /  10  30  40  50
CHANUTE         95  74  92  69 /  10  40  40  50
IOLA            94  74  91  69 /  10  50  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    96  75  92  70 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 310837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH LIBERAL AND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF CEDAR BLUFF. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/3 OF KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMETN FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA INTO A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33



000
FXUS63 KDDC 310837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH LIBERAL AND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF CEDAR BLUFF. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/3 OF KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMETN FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA INTO A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33



000
FXUS63 KDDC 310837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH LIBERAL AND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF CEDAR BLUFF. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/3 OF KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMETN FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA INTO A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33



000
FXUS63 KDDC 310837
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FROM THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH LIBERAL AND NORTHWARD TO
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WEST OF CEDAR BLUFF. THESE WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
1/3 OF KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE HRRR WAS INDICATING A BROKEN LINE OF RELATIVELY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE INTO CENTRAL KS BY AROUND 10-12 UTC. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED
WITH BASICALLY LOW POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
FOR THE DAY WILL BE A LATE DAY OR EVENING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
NMM AND ARW MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED A QLCS TYPE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS
NORTHERN KS, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
OVER NORTHERN KS. FARTHER SOUTH, OVER OUR AREA, ANY CONVECTION IN
THESE SOLUTIONS COULD BE GENERALLY MORE DISCREET AND MORE HIGH BASED
(HAIL AND WIND THREATS POSSIBLE) WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS/COLD POOLS COULD FORCE
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMETN FARTHER BRINGING MORE OF OUR AREA INTO A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MORE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
COMMON WITH GUSTS IN TO JUST UNDER 30 KNOTS. YESTERDAY`S HIGHS OF
LOW 90S TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS ARE A REASONABLE TELL
FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE LATEST SHORT TERM CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE SW GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR AND BETTER DOWNSLOPE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
POTENTIAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OUTFLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, A
LARGE GRADIENT OF AROUND 20 DEGREES COULD EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
FROM MID 50`S OUT WEST TO MID 70S IN THE PRATT COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE AREA SETTING AN EARLY MILD LOW JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  65  87  65 /  30  50  10  30
GCK  99  62  87  63 /  40  50  10  20
EHA 100  62  91  63 /  10  10  10  10
LBL 102  65  91  64 /  20  20  10  20
HYS  96  64  84  63 /  50  80  20  20
P28  99  71  90  70 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310837
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED RW/TRW TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME LINGERING MID CLOUD COVER STILL TO CLR THE
REGION BY MID MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IT IS THIS TIMEFRAME THAT WILL POSE A SEVERE WX THREAT TO MUCH OF
THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE IS GOING TO GIVE WAY TO A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
SWING THRU THE AREA THRU 12Z MONDAY. LATEST MODEL TRACK OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD...PUTS BEST DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS
OVER EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF GOODLAND.
BULK SHEAR 0-6KM WILL RANGING FROM 37 KTS SOUTH TO NEAR 60 KTS
NORTH...COMBINED WITH LL JET 30-40KTS...LI/S -4 TO -8 AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDER TO DEVELOP...EVEN THE
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. THIS IS REINFORCED BY SPC PUTTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN SLIGHT RISK IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMEFRAME WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL/TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS
CONTINUED ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR THESE ELEMENTS. MODELS DO
KEEP SYSTEM FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP
TAPERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z-12Z.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S THRU THE MID 90S...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO DROP THE AREA INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GOING INTO MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. BY MONDAY EVENING RIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...MODELS SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE
GREAT LKS REGION BACK DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS BUT
CLRING OUT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY FOR A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE. WITH RIDGE BLOCKING MOST OF
THE CWA FROM THE STALLED FRONT...WILL ONLY PUT IN 15-25 POPS ALONG
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES FOR TRW/RW. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WILL RANGE IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS...DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR OVERNGT LOWS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES. LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD ELONGATING LOW WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE TRAILING
PORTION THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL LATE IN
THE WEEK LIKELY REACHING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS...CONSENSUS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FALL IN ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TRW/RW THAT HAS DEVELOPED...AND
WILL CARRY THRU UNTIL NEXT ESTF AND/OR 12Z THIS MORNING. BULK OF
ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AREAS EAST OF GOODLAND.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO INCREASE POPS FOR TRW/RW THAT HAS DEVELOPED...AND
WILL CARRY THRU UNTIL NEXT ESTF AND/OR 12Z THIS MORNING. BULK OF
ANY REMAINING PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED OVER AREAS EAST OF GOODLAND.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310537
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND INCLUDE LATEST GUIDANCE INTO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...LOWERED POPS AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
ACTIVITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE COMING IN FROM COLORADO AND CAP HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
OF A TORNADO OR TWO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO HOXIE AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LCLS OF 1300-1600
METERS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND TURNING OF WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
THREATS ARE BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT COULD NOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310537
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND INCLUDE LATEST GUIDANCE INTO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...LOWERED POPS AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
ACTIVITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE COMING IN FROM COLORADO AND CAP HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
OF A TORNADO OR TWO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO HOXIE AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LCLS OF 1300-1600
METERS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND TURNING OF WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
THREATS ARE BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT COULD NOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING INTO KGLD SO HAVE PLACED VCTS
BACK INTO TAF. KGLD VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 45
KTS OVER KGLD AT PRESENT TIME WITH RAP MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATING
STRONG WINDS OVER KMCK. MAINTAINED LLWS IN TAF WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS MOVING THROUGH. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED VCTS INTO KMCK TAF AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
LARGE HAIL. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE TS INTO KGLD TAF AS
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT CONVECTION STAYS NORTHEAST.
COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...BRINGING LIGHT
NORTH WINDS AND CALM WEATHER BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KICT 310439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 310439
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave trough moving into the
great lakes region with another upper level trough moving into the
northern Rockies. A lead shortwave within the western trough was
moving across NV and into UT with a second shortwave over the
pacific northwest coast. At the surface, there was relatively high
pressure over the forecast area with an ill defined frontal boundary
to the southeast and a surface low forming over WY. This has allowed
winds to remain light and variable this afternoon.

This afternoon and tonight should remain relatively quiet as forcing
from the initial shortwave out west looks to hold off until the early
morning Sunday. By Sunday morning, the models are hinting at the
possibility for some very high based showers and thunderstorms
moving into north central KS around sunrise. The 315K isentropic
surface shows rather deep upglide from about 800MB to nearly 600MB
across north central KS, but the airmass is pretty dry below 700MB.
Lapse rates above 600MB look to be nearly moist adiabatic so there
does not appear to be much elevated instability for a parcel lifted
from 700MB or above. This isentropic lift is progged to eventually
break down late in the morning as the lead shortwave passes east.
Otherwise models show a decent elevated mixed layer advecting into
central KS from the southwest through the day as 700MB temps warm to
between 12 and 14 C. Currently models show this capping inversion to
hold through the afternoon and models wait for the actual front to
move into the area for surface based convection to affect the
forecast area. Think this is plausible since the initial shortwave
moving into UT should pass through the area in the morning and the
better PVA and large scale forcing focusing north and west of the
forecast area through the afternoon. So in general think there may
be some high based precip move across north central KS in the
morning with the afternoon remaining generally dry. If an updraft
were to become especially vigorous in the morning, there could be a
localized damaging winds threat due to an inverted V profile below
700MB. Have trended POPs down during the afternoon and confine
chance POPs across far northwestern portions of the forecast area
for the late afternoon which should be in closer proximity to the
surface trough/front.

With some weak mixing overnight, think overnight lows will be in the
middle and upper 60s. Gradually increasing high clouds after
midnight should also help keep lows rather mild. The pressure
gradient really strengthens for Sunday with south winds likely
gusting over 30 MPH. Strong mixing of the boundary layer to around
825MB and decent insolation to go along with the warm air advection
is expected to lift afternoon temps into the middle and upper 90s
across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Severe weather potential continues through at least the mid evening
hours, but have some questions on how the event will transpire. The
upstream front is not very well defined and with moisture pooling
into eastern Nebraska on easterly winds, could see quite an array of
convection developing here and along the front to the west in the
late day. If storms can maintain some separation, increasing low
level shear on a stout low level jet would produce supercells,
though even if such storms don`t occur until near/after sunset, LCL
heights look rather high for a significant tornado concern, so still
looking like primarily a wind and hail concern for severe weather,
with little in the way of a synoptic set-up for flooding.

Front/effective front still appears possible to be draped across
southern areas Labor Day. Depending on persistence and track of
overnight convection, could see moderate CAPE again develop along
with some decent speed shear for more severe weather potential. LCLs
are likely to be lower though low level shear at this point doesn`t
look very strong given modest wind fields. Models differ on how fast
return flow will develop, but at least a few periods of thunder
potential seem in order into at least Tuesday evening.

Flow pattern for the Central Plains becomes weaker with modest
ridging for the mid week for warming temps and a likely dry period
for most locations Wednesday into Thursday with highest well into the
90s. Guidance differs with the next cold front`s approach, stemming
from speed variations of the next shortwave trough`s passage across
the U.S./Canada border, with the 12Z ECMWF faster than its 0Z run
and the 12Z GFS. Forecast changes were minor at this point,
including adding small chances in the north Thursday night.
Thunderstorm chances then continue into the weekend with again the
front possibly becoming stationary over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours. As the
low-level jet increases to 30 KTS there may be some moderate low-level
shear at the terminals from 9Z through 14Z SUN. Thunderstorm
chances will increase Sunday evening and have included VCTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KICT 310439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 310438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  67  99  62  87 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  68  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  96  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  98  71  90 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310438
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A VERY SMALL CLUSTER OF GRADUALLY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
GARDEN CITY EARLIER WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DDC TERMINAL AND
EXPECTED TO NOT HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT. HOWEVER, ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PROBABLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 Z. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOO
FEW AND FAR BETWEEN TO CONSIDER FOR EVEN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.
SLIGHTLY MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A SURFACE DRYLINE. THESE MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
DDC TO HYS. LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ANYWHERE ALONG THE DRYLINE OR AND INCOMING COLD FRONT
NORTH OF GARDEN CITY IN THE EVENING, POSSIBLY POSING A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST CHANCES NEAR THE HYS
TERMINAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  67  99  62  87 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  68  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  96  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  98  71  90 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...33



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310254
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND INCLUDE LATEST GUIDANCE INTO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...LOWERED POPS AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
ACTIVITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE COMING IN FROM COLORADO AND CAP HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
OF A TORNADO OR TWO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO HOXIE AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LCLS OF 1300-1600
METERS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND TURNING OF WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
THREATS ARE BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT COULD NOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...
STORMS MAY APPROACH SITES AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS AND WITH THE CAP HOLDING FIRM IN THE TRI-STATE REGION...
REMOVED VCTS MENTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
TO MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PLACED LLWS INTO TAF AS WE SHOULD APPROACH CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...
A FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS TO TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT KMCK IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAN KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310254
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AND INCLUDE LATEST GUIDANCE INTO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...LOWERED POPS AND MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDER.
ACTIVITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE COMING IN FROM COLORADO AND CAP HAS
LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LIES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE
OF A TORNADO OR TWO NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON
NEBRASKA TO HOXIE AND HILL CITY KANSAS. LCLS OF 1300-1600
METERS...FAVORABLE SHEAR AND TURNING OF WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. MAIN
THREATS ARE BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT COULD NOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...
STORMS MAY APPROACH SITES AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS AND WITH THE CAP HOLDING FIRM IN THE TRI-STATE REGION...
REMOVED VCTS MENTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
TO MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PLACED LLWS INTO TAF AS WE SHOULD APPROACH CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...
A FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS TO TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT KMCK IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAN KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KICT 302348
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL KS. WILL
MAINTAIN A VCTS AT RSL FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LEE CYCLONE WILL
STEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE STEEP MIXING
AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUN PM FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS...HOWEVER IF THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES CENTRAL KS...IT SHOULD BE LATER SUN EVE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 302348
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL KS. WILL
MAINTAIN A VCTS AT RSL FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...LEE CYCLONE WILL
STEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE STEEP MIXING
AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KNOTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUN PM FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHWEST KS...HOWEVER IF THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES CENTRAL KS...IT SHOULD BE LATER SUN EVE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 302333
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...
STORMS MAY APPROACH SITES AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS AND WITH THE CAP HOLDING FIRM IN THE TRI-STATE REGION...
REMOVED VCTS MENTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
TO MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PLACED LLWS INTO TAF AS WE SHOULD APPROACH CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...
A FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS TO TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT KMCK IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAN KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 302333
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS EVENING...
STORMS MAY APPROACH SITES AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
POPS AND WITH THE CAP HOLDING FIRM IN THE TRI-STATE REGION...
REMOVED VCTS MENTION. WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE
TO MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION. VIGOROUS LOW LEVEL JET OF 45-55 KTS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
PLACED LLWS INTO TAF AS WE SHOULD APPROACH CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...
A FRONT MOVES IN AND BRINGS NORTHWEST WINDS TO TAF SITES. ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES UNSTABLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN PLACEMENT TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT KMCK IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM THAN KGLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 302319
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
619 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING. THINK THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT LOCAL TERMINALS. WILL WATCH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING, BUT DUE TO CONFIDENCE ISSUES, WILL LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 302319
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
619 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THIS EVENING. THINK THIS ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT LOCAL TERMINALS. WILL WATCH
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW EVENING, BUT DUE TO CONFIDENCE ISSUES, WILL LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP 20-25 KT AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302317
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave trough moving into the
great lakes region with another upper level trough moving into the
northern Rockies. A lead shortwave within the western trough was
moving across NV and into UT with a second shortwave over the
pacific northwest coast. At the surface, there was relatively high
pressure over the forecast area with an ill defined frontal boundary
to the southeast and a surface low forming over WY. This has allowed
winds to remain light and variable this afternoon.

This afternoon and tonight should remain relatively quiet as forcing
from the initial shortwave out west looks to hold off until the early
morning Sunday. By Sunday morning, the models are hinting at the
possibility for some very high based showers and thunderstorms
moving into north central KS around sunrise. The 315K isentropic
surface shows rather deep upglide from about 800MB to nearly 600MB
across north central KS, but the airmass is pretty dry below 700MB.
Lapse rates above 600MB look to be nearly moist adiabatic so there
does not appear to be much elevated instability for a parcel lifted
from 700MB or above. This isentropic lift is progged to eventually
break down late in the morning as the lead shortwave passes east.
Otherwise models show a decent elevated mixed layer advecting into
central KS from the southwest through the day as 700MB temps warm to
between 12 and 14 C. Currently models show this capping inversion to
hold through the afternoon and models wait for the actual front to
move into the area for surface based convection to affect the
forecast area. Think this is plausible since the initial shortwave
moving into UT should pass through the area in the morning and the
better PVA and large scale forcing focusing north and west of the
forecast area through the afternoon. So in general think there may
be some high based precip move across north central KS in the
morning with the afternoon remaining generally dry. If an updraft
were to become especially vigorous in the morning, there could be a
localized damaging winds threat due to an inverted V profile below
700MB. Have trended POPs down during the afternoon and confine
chance POPs across far northwestern portions of the forecast area
for the late afternoon which should be in closer proximity to the
surface trough/front.

With some weak mixing overnight, think overnight lows will be in the
middle and upper 60s. Gradually increasing high clouds after
midnight should also help keep lows rather mild. The pressure
gradient really strengthens for Sunday with south winds likely
gusting over 30 MPH. Strong mixing of the boundary layer to around
825MB and decent insolation to go along with the warm air advection
is expected to lift afternoon temps into the middle and upper 90s
across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Severe weather potential continues through at least the mid evening
hours, but have some questions on how the event will transpire. The
upstream front is not very well defined and with moisture pooling
into eastern Nebraska on easterly winds, could see quite an array of
convection developing here and along the front to the west in the
late day. If storms can maintain some separation, increasing low
level shear on a stout low level jet would produce supercells,
though even if such storms don`t occur until near/after sunset, LCL
heights look rather high for a significant tornado concern, so still
looking like primarily a wind and hail concern for severe weather,
with little in the way of a synoptic set-up for flooding.

Front/effective front still appears possible to be draped across
southern areas Labor Day. Depending on persistence and track of
overnight convection, could see moderate CAPE again develop along
with some decent speed shear for more severe weather potential. LCLs
are likely to be lower though low level shear at this point doesn`t
look very strong given modest wind fields. Models differ on how fast
return flow will develop, but at least a few periods of thunder
potential seem in order into at least Tuesday evening.

Flow pattern for the Central Plains becomes weaker with modest
ridging for the mid week for warming temps and a likely dry period
for most locations Wednesday into Thursday with highest well into the
90s. Guidance differs with the next cold front`s approach, stemming
from speed variations of the next shortwave trough`s passage across
the U.S./Canada border, with the 12Z ECMWF faster than its 0Z run
and the 12Z GFS. Forecast changes were minor at this point,
including adding small chances in the north Thursday night.
Thunderstorm chances then continue into the weekend with again the
front possibly becoming stationary over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours.  Wind shear
may be a possible factor to consider for next TAF period due to the
LLJ influence as well as the possibility of VCTS late in the day
Sunday.  These have been left out for now due to low confidence in
timing and exact location.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 302317
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave trough moving into the
great lakes region with another upper level trough moving into the
northern Rockies. A lead shortwave within the western trough was
moving across NV and into UT with a second shortwave over the
pacific northwest coast. At the surface, there was relatively high
pressure over the forecast area with an ill defined frontal boundary
to the southeast and a surface low forming over WY. This has allowed
winds to remain light and variable this afternoon.

This afternoon and tonight should remain relatively quiet as forcing
from the initial shortwave out west looks to hold off until the early
morning Sunday. By Sunday morning, the models are hinting at the
possibility for some very high based showers and thunderstorms
moving into north central KS around sunrise. The 315K isentropic
surface shows rather deep upglide from about 800MB to nearly 600MB
across north central KS, but the airmass is pretty dry below 700MB.
Lapse rates above 600MB look to be nearly moist adiabatic so there
does not appear to be much elevated instability for a parcel lifted
from 700MB or above. This isentropic lift is progged to eventually
break down late in the morning as the lead shortwave passes east.
Otherwise models show a decent elevated mixed layer advecting into
central KS from the southwest through the day as 700MB temps warm to
between 12 and 14 C. Currently models show this capping inversion to
hold through the afternoon and models wait for the actual front to
move into the area for surface based convection to affect the
forecast area. Think this is plausible since the initial shortwave
moving into UT should pass through the area in the morning and the
better PVA and large scale forcing focusing north and west of the
forecast area through the afternoon. So in general think there may
be some high based precip move across north central KS in the
morning with the afternoon remaining generally dry. If an updraft
were to become especially vigorous in the morning, there could be a
localized damaging winds threat due to an inverted V profile below
700MB. Have trended POPs down during the afternoon and confine
chance POPs across far northwestern portions of the forecast area
for the late afternoon which should be in closer proximity to the
surface trough/front.

With some weak mixing overnight, think overnight lows will be in the
middle and upper 60s. Gradually increasing high clouds after
midnight should also help keep lows rather mild. The pressure
gradient really strengthens for Sunday with south winds likely
gusting over 30 MPH. Strong mixing of the boundary layer to around
825MB and decent insolation to go along with the warm air advection
is expected to lift afternoon temps into the middle and upper 90s
across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Severe weather potential continues through at least the mid evening
hours, but have some questions on how the event will transpire. The
upstream front is not very well defined and with moisture pooling
into eastern Nebraska on easterly winds, could see quite an array of
convection developing here and along the front to the west in the
late day. If storms can maintain some separation, increasing low
level shear on a stout low level jet would produce supercells,
though even if such storms don`t occur until near/after sunset, LCL
heights look rather high for a significant tornado concern, so still
looking like primarily a wind and hail concern for severe weather,
with little in the way of a synoptic set-up for flooding.

Front/effective front still appears possible to be draped across
southern areas Labor Day. Depending on persistence and track of
overnight convection, could see moderate CAPE again develop along
with some decent speed shear for more severe weather potential. LCLs
are likely to be lower though low level shear at this point doesn`t
look very strong given modest wind fields. Models differ on how fast
return flow will develop, but at least a few periods of thunder
potential seem in order into at least Tuesday evening.

Flow pattern for the Central Plains becomes weaker with modest
ridging for the mid week for warming temps and a likely dry period
for most locations Wednesday into Thursday with highest well into the
90s. Guidance differs with the next cold front`s approach, stemming
from speed variations of the next shortwave trough`s passage across
the U.S./Canada border, with the 12Z ECMWF faster than its 0Z run
and the 12Z GFS. Forecast changes were minor at this point,
including adding small chances in the north Thursday night.
Thunderstorm chances then continue into the weekend with again the
front possibly becoming stationary over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions through most of the next 24 hours.  Wind shear
may be a possible factor to consider for next TAF period due to the
LLJ influence as well as the possibility of VCTS late in the day
Sunday.  These have been left out for now due to low confidence in
timing and exact location.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Drake






000
FXUS63 KGLD 302052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302052
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS STILL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION. WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOS TRANSITIONING
INTO MAINLY A WIND THREAT BY LATE EVENING.

COOLER...NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE REGION DRIES OUT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EACH DAY AS
DISTURBANCES MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KTOP 302011
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave trough moving into the
great lakes region with another upper level trough moving into the
northern Rockies. A lead shortwave within the western trough was
moving across NV and into UT with a second shortwave over the
pacific northwest coast. At the surface, there was relatively high
pressure over the forecast area with an ill defined frontal boundary
to the southeast and a surface low forming over WY. This has allowed
winds to remain light and variable this afternoon.

This afternoon and tonight should remain relatively quiet as forcing
from the initial shortwave out west looks to hold off until the early
morning Sunday. By Sunday morning, the models are hinting at the
possibility for some very high based showers and thunderstorms
moving into north central KS around sunrise. The 315K isentropic
surface shows rather deep upglide from about 800MB to nearly 600MB
across north central KS, but the airmass is pretty dry below 700MB.
Lapse rates above 600MB look to be nearly moist adiabatic so there
does not appear to be much elevated instability for a parcel lifted
from 700MB or above. This isentropic lift is progged to eventually
break down late in the morning as the lead shortwave passes east.
Otherwise models show a decent elevated mixed layer advecting into
central KS from the southwest through the day as 700MB temps warm to
between 12 and 14 C. Currently models show this capping inversion to
hold through the afternoon and models wait for the actual front to
move into the area for surface based convection to affect the
forecast area. Think this is plausible since the initial shortwave
moving into UT should pass through the area in the morning and the
better PVA and large scale forcing focusing north and west of the
forecast area through the afternoon. So in general think there may
be some high based precip move across north central KS in the
morning with the afternoon remaining generally dry. If an updraft
were to become especially vigorous in the morning, there could be a
localized damaging winds threat due to an inverted V profile below
700MB. Have trended POPs down during the afternoon and confine
chance POPs across far northwestern portions of the forecast area
for the late afternoon which should be in closer proximity to the
surface trough/front.

With some weak mixing overnight, think overnight lows will be in the
middle and upper 60s. Gradually increasing high clouds after
midnight should also help keep lows rather mild. The pressure
gradient really strengthens for Sunday with south winds likely
gusting over 30 MPH. Strong mixing of the boundary layer to around
825MB and decent insolation to go along with the warm air advection
is expected to lift afternoon temps into the middle and upper 90s
across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Severe weather potential continues through at least the mid evening
hours, but have some questions on how the event will transpire. The
upstream front is not very well defined and with moisture pooling
into eastern Nebraska on easterly winds, could see quite an array of
convection developing here and along the front to the west in the
late day. If storms can maintain some separation, increasing low
level shear on a stout low level jet would produce supercells,
though even if such storms don`t occur until near/after sunset, LCL
heights look rather high for a significant tornado concern, so still
looking like primarily a wind and hail concern for severe weather,
with little in the way of a synoptic set-up for flooding.

Front/effective front still appears possible to be draped across
southern areas Labor Day. Depending on persistence and track of
overnight convection, could see moderate CAPE again develop along
with some decent speed shear for more severe weather potential. LCLs
are likely to be lower though low level shear at this point doesn`t
look very strong given modest wind fields. Models differ on how fast
return flow will develop, but at least a few periods of thunder
potential seem in order into at least Tuesday evening.

Flow pattern for the Central Plains becomes weaker with modest
ridging for the mid week for warming temps and a likely dry period
for most locations Wednesday into Thursday with highest well into the
90s. Guidance differs with the next cold front`s approach, stemming
from speed variations of the next shortwave trough`s passage across
the U.S./Canada border, with the 12Z ECMWF faster than its 0Z run
and the 12Z GFS. Forecast changes were minor at this point,
including adding small chances in the north Thursday night.
Thunderstorm chances then continue into the weekend with again the
front possibly becoming stationary over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

With no real forcing expected through this evening, VFR conditions
are forecast to persist.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters





000
FXUS63 KTOP 302011
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
311 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

19Z water vapor imagery shows one shortwave trough moving into the
great lakes region with another upper level trough moving into the
northern Rockies. A lead shortwave within the western trough was
moving across NV and into UT with a second shortwave over the
pacific northwest coast. At the surface, there was relatively high
pressure over the forecast area with an ill defined frontal boundary
to the southeast and a surface low forming over WY. This has allowed
winds to remain light and variable this afternoon.

This afternoon and tonight should remain relatively quiet as forcing
from the initial shortwave out west looks to hold off until the early
morning Sunday. By Sunday morning, the models are hinting at the
possibility for some very high based showers and thunderstorms
moving into north central KS around sunrise. The 315K isentropic
surface shows rather deep upglide from about 800MB to nearly 600MB
across north central KS, but the airmass is pretty dry below 700MB.
Lapse rates above 600MB look to be nearly moist adiabatic so there
does not appear to be much elevated instability for a parcel lifted
from 700MB or above. This isentropic lift is progged to eventually
break down late in the morning as the lead shortwave passes east.
Otherwise models show a decent elevated mixed layer advecting into
central KS from the southwest through the day as 700MB temps warm to
between 12 and 14 C. Currently models show this capping inversion to
hold through the afternoon and models wait for the actual front to
move into the area for surface based convection to affect the
forecast area. Think this is plausible since the initial shortwave
moving into UT should pass through the area in the morning and the
better PVA and large scale forcing focusing north and west of the
forecast area through the afternoon. So in general think there may
be some high based precip move across north central KS in the
morning with the afternoon remaining generally dry. If an updraft
were to become especially vigorous in the morning, there could be a
localized damaging winds threat due to an inverted V profile below
700MB. Have trended POPs down during the afternoon and confine
chance POPs across far northwestern portions of the forecast area
for the late afternoon which should be in closer proximity to the
surface trough/front.

With some weak mixing overnight, think overnight lows will be in the
middle and upper 60s. Gradually increasing high clouds after
midnight should also help keep lows rather mild. The pressure
gradient really strengthens for Sunday with south winds likely
gusting over 30 MPH. Strong mixing of the boundary layer to around
825MB and decent insolation to go along with the warm air advection
is expected to lift afternoon temps into the middle and upper 90s
across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Severe weather potential continues through at least the mid evening
hours, but have some questions on how the event will transpire. The
upstream front is not very well defined and with moisture pooling
into eastern Nebraska on easterly winds, could see quite an array of
convection developing here and along the front to the west in the
late day. If storms can maintain some separation, increasing low
level shear on a stout low level jet would produce supercells,
though even if such storms don`t occur until near/after sunset, LCL
heights look rather high for a significant tornado concern, so still
looking like primarily a wind and hail concern for severe weather,
with little in the way of a synoptic set-up for flooding.

Front/effective front still appears possible to be draped across
southern areas Labor Day. Depending on persistence and track of
overnight convection, could see moderate CAPE again develop along
with some decent speed shear for more severe weather potential. LCLs
are likely to be lower though low level shear at this point doesn`t
look very strong given modest wind fields. Models differ on how fast
return flow will develop, but at least a few periods of thunder
potential seem in order into at least Tuesday evening.

Flow pattern for the Central Plains becomes weaker with modest
ridging for the mid week for warming temps and a likely dry period
for most locations Wednesday into Thursday with highest well into the
90s. Guidance differs with the next cold front`s approach, stemming
from speed variations of the next shortwave trough`s passage across
the U.S./Canada border, with the 12Z ECMWF faster than its 0Z run
and the 12Z GFS. Forecast changes were minor at this point,
including adding small chances in the north Thursday night.
Thunderstorm chances then continue into the weekend with again the
front possibly becoming stationary over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

With no real forcing expected through this evening, VFR conditions
are forecast to persist.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KICT 301955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KRSL AND MVFR FOG FOR KCNU
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K. EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY
WILL PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KCNU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15
UTC AS WITH INCREASE BL MIXING.

AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE CWA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFT 09 UTC FOR KRSL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS DEPICTING
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFT 06
UTC...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE 315K BETWEEN
09-12 UTC. INTRODUCED VCTS INTO KRSL TAF THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS ACTUALLY WILL IMPACT TAF SITE NOT GREAT.

REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY EXPECTED AVIATION IMPACT
OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KRSL AND MVFR FOG FOR KCNU
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K. EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY
WILL PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KCNU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15
UTC AS WITH INCREASE BL MIXING.

AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE CWA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFT 09 UTC FOR KRSL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS DEPICTING
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFT 06
UTC...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE 315K BETWEEN
09-12 UTC. INTRODUCED VCTS INTO KRSL TAF THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS ACTUALLY WILL IMPACT TAF SITE NOT GREAT.

REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY EXPECTED AVIATION IMPACT
OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KRSL AND MVFR FOG FOR KCNU
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K. EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY
WILL PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KCNU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15
UTC AS WITH INCREASE BL MIXING.

AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE CWA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFT 09 UTC FOR KRSL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS DEPICTING
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFT 06
UTC...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE 315K BETWEEN
09-12 UTC. INTRODUCED VCTS INTO KRSL TAF THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS ACTUALLY WILL IMPACT TAF SITE NOT GREAT.

REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY EXPECTED AVIATION IMPACT
OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KRSL AND MVFR FOG FOR KCNU
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K. EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY
WILL PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KCNU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15
UTC AS WITH INCREASE BL MIXING.

AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE CWA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFT 09 UTC FOR KRSL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS DEPICTING
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFT 06
UTC...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE 315K BETWEEN
09-12 UTC. INTRODUCED VCTS INTO KRSL TAF THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS ACTUALLY WILL IMPACT TAF SITE NOT GREAT.

REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY EXPECTED AVIATION IMPACT
OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

SF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 301945
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301945
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301945
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301945
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 00Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NORTH OF THIS FRONT ALONG WITH
LOCATION OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND LATE
DAY INSTABILITY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A +13C TO +16C 700MB
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS IT SPREADS EAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING IN THIS AREA BASED ON THE 0-6KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES
GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE AN
ISSUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PRECIPTABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES AND A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME
MODELS DIFFERING SOME ON WHERE THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
ON SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
FURTHER SOUTH A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
HOWEVER ABOVE THIS DRYLINE 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST TO
WARM TO +14 TO NEAR +16C. THESE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT HOW WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME AM NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE ON A FEW SCATTERED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH SIMILAR
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES EXPECTED IN THE EVENING ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR BECOMING SEVERE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS/COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BRIEFLY SETTLE INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY
SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S STILL
APPEAR POSSIBLE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY. INCREASING
CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN DEVELOP MID WEEK AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS KANSAS AND A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  20  10
GCK  67  98  62  87 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  69  95  64  84 /  20  40  60  20
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301916
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301916
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NOTICEABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO UTAH. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
COMMON.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
BETWEEN 03 AND 09Z IN RESPONSE. INSTABILITY...BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED APPEAR TO BE VERY LIMITED SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WHILE A FEW LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO OCCUR WHEN LARGE SCALE
FORCING/INCREASING LLJ ARE MAXIMIZED.

TOMORROW...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN CWA LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL
BE ALONG DEVELOPING DRY LINE TO THE THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
WHILE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
FRONT...STRONG CAP MAKES ANY EARLY INITIATION UNLIKELY. A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE
CWA...BUT THIS SCENARIO MOST LIKELY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  50  10
GCK  67  98  61  87 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  69  95  63  84 /  20  40  70  10
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  50  10
GCK  67  98  61  87 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  69  95  63  84 /  20  40  70  10
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  50  10
GCK  67  98  61  87 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  69  95  63  84 /  20  40  70  10
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301907
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
207 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SURFACE LEE TOUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS THROUGH
TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS TOMORROW. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW WITH THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET POSITIONED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS WILL BE WHERE
INITIAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
TREK EASTWARD AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA,
HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR SOUTH
AS GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. ANY STORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO BECOME SEVERE AS 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE ABOVE
30 KNOTS AND CAPE VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 1500 J/KG. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  98  65  87 /  10  20  50  10
GCK  67  98  61  87 /  10  20  20   0
EHA  67  99  62  91 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  69 101  65  91 /  10  10  20   0
HYS  69  95  63  84 /  20  40  70  10
P28  70  97  71  90 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301743
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1143 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THIS LATEST UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCT FOR
OBSERVATION TRENDS IN PAST COUPLE HOURS OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARDS MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES PUSHING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES
ACROSS AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE PLAINS.

WITH THIS SET UP FOR THE AREA...WILL BE KEEPING CWA PRECIP-FREE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE EXPECTING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE
THRU THE DAY AS RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN ROCKIES. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDE AREAL COVERAGE
OF TRW FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TROUGH MEANDERS OFF
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDER
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT STRONG WAA TO
OCCUR INTO AREA. THIS WILL PUT 850/925 MB TEMPS +21C TO +25C/+30C TO
+35C RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE GOING FOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AS A
RESULT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S...HAMPERED ONLY BY CLD
COVER FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT MAY BRING A THREAT FOR LLWS...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES BTWN 04 AND 08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO GO
ANY HIGHER THAN A VCTS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KICT 301725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THIS MORNING:
MAY SEE PESKY FOG DEVELOP IN NARROW BAND AT INTERFACE BETWEEN
COOLER AIR NORTHWEST OF BOUNDARY AND HIGHER DEW POINTS/WARMER AIR
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TRANSIENT
ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN ADVISORY. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WITH
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...THREAT SHOULD WANE FAIRLY QUICKLY.

THIS AFTERNOON-SUN MORNING:
NOT ANTICIPATING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED/ROGUE STORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. FLOW AT OR BELOW 850MB IS
EXTREMELY WEAK...SO HAVE DOUBTS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO GET INITIATION. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS TO BE A DECENT
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
CENTRAL KS...AND PROBABLY LINGER INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF FLINT HILLS.

SUN AFTERNOON-MON:
STILL EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST SECTION OF FORECAST AREA EITHER VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SHOW VARIATIONS ON THE SAME THEME AND SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ANTICIPATE MCS TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MON IS A BIT
TRICKIER WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. IF AIRMASS AHEAD OF
FRONT DOES NOT GET WORKED OVER/AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR
CLEARS EARLY ENOUGH TO RECOVER...WOULD LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE CONVECTION. BOTH GFS/ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS ECMWF IS SLOWER PUSHING FRONT THROUGH AREA...
WITH SEVERE THREAT AS FAR NORTH AS A SALINA-LYONS LINE...WHILE GFS
WOULD BE ALONG/E OF I-35. FOR NOW WILL HIT THREAT A BIT MORE ON
SUN AND PAINT A MORE BROAD PICTURE FOR MON IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
FRONT...WHICH WILL FORTUNATELY LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. STILL
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF MCS MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTERSECTS EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS PER MON AFTERNOON
FORECAST...ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN GFS...SO THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL...BUT SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED AREA AT THIS TIME. BY TUE NIGHT ECMWF HAS SHUNTED
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS LINGERS EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BUT TREND BEYOND THAT
IS DRY WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THERE IS A THREAT OF CONVECTION FOR KRSL AND MVFR FOG FOR KCNU
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ADVECTING IMPROVED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 2K. EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MIXING LIKELY
WILL PRODUCE MVFR FOG AT KCNU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15
UTC AS WITH INCREASE BL MIXING.

AT THE OPPOSITE END OF THE CWA...THERE IS A THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFT 09 UTC FOR KRSL. SYNOPTIC AND MESO MODELS DEPICTING
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFT 06
UTC...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICTING ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE 315K BETWEEN
09-12 UTC. INTRODUCED VCTS INTO KRSL TAF THOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
STORMS ACTUALLY WILL IMPACT TAF SITE NOT GREAT.

REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
ENTIRETY OF TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY EXPECTED AVIATION IMPACT
OCCURRING VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS.

SF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  96  73 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      90  69  96  71 /   0  10  10  50
NEWTON          90  69  95  72 /   0  10  10  60
ELDORADO        91  69  95  73 /  10  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30
RUSSELL         90  71  97  65 /   0  20  20  60
GREAT BEND      90  70  97  66 /   0  20  20  60
SALINA          91  70  96  68 /   0  20  20  60
MCPHERSON       90  69  96  70 /   0  10  20  60
COFFEYVILLE     92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  20
CHANUTE         91  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  40
IOLA            90  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  50
PARSONS-KPPF    92  70  96  75 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 301721
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1221 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFIES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS THEN
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301709
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1209 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Quiet weather is forecast through today and much of tonight. Aside
from patches of early morning fog, especially in valleys and low
areas, expect ample sunshine throughout the day with large scale
subsidence across the forecast area from mid morning through the
evening. Afternoon temperatures should warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 given the widespread sun and 850 hPa temps around 20C. May
reach the convective temperature by mid afternoon across the area as
well, but the subsidence aloft will inhibit any showers and dry
weather is to be expected. Mostly clear skies will continue into the
evening but by the early morning hours the surface ridge will push
east of the forecast area with southerly return flow increasing
through sunrise. The south breeze should keep overnight lows in the
middle to upper 60s. Will see moisture advection on the low level
jet across central KS along with increasing isentropic ascent. This
may result in increasing clouds and a few showers or storms into the
highway 81 corridor by around sunrise and have introduced slight
chances after 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

By Sunday, the focus shifts to the next approaching mid-level trough
that will be progressing eastward across the northern Rockies. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
into the High Plains and further into the Central Plains Sunday
night into Monday. At this time, the cold front associated with this
system may not move into north central Kansas until early evening,
however embedded shortwaves within the mid-level flow may spawn
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity over portions of
northern/north central Kansas during the afternoon hours. As the
front approaches the region, expect more widely scattered
thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the front mid/late
afternoon through the evening and overnight hours. Concern continues
to grow with regards to the potential for strong to severe storms to
develop across much of the forecast area during the late Sunday
afternoon and evening time frame. 00z model runs show a very notable
increase in the low-level jet (compared to yesterday`s 00z runs),
with a nose of 40-60kts at 850MB entering the region during the
evening. Models continue to suggest decent instability and shear,
along with modest low-level helicity, so there is an increasing
likelihood of supercell thunderstorm development with this activity.
The primary threats will be for large hail and damaging winds,
however cannot completely rule out the potential for an isolated
tornado or two. There also is the potential for locally heavy
rainfall as PWAT values reach upwards of 1.6-1.9 inches.  While many
locations across the forecast area are in need of decent rainfall, a
few locations have received some modest rainfall from the scattered
activity over the last couple of weeks, so those locations will be
more sensitive to this heavy rain potential.

This front should track east of the area by Monday afternoon,
however as the mid-level trough broadens out across much of the
northern U.S., it is expected to orient the front from west to east
and have it become nearly stationary just south of the forecast area
before potentially lifting northward into the region as a warm front
Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still a great deal of model
uncertainty though with the placement and tracking of this lingering
frontal boundary through the middle of next week. Additional
uncertainty lies with the potential for precipitation through the
week as models show several weak embedded shortwaves developing
along the southern edge of this broad trough (that results in fairly
zonal flow across the area), however they don`t seem to be agreeing
with the timing and location of these shortwaves and the scattered
thunderstorms that may develop from them. At this time, the better
chance for precipitation looks to be Monday night into Tuesday from
the lifting warm front, but have decreasing PoPs through mid week
and went dry for much of the latter part of the week due to too much
model uncertainty.

As for temperatures, another mild day is expected Sunday ahead of
the storm system as breezy southerly winds are expected with gusts
of 25-35mph possible. As a result, expect highs to reach into the
low/mid 90s. Slightly cooler conditions expected behind the system
and through the first part of next week with highs dropping into the
80s and low 90s. The temperature forecast for the latter part of the
week is more uncertain due to the discrepancies in how far north a
mid-level ridge will build over the region, but in general expect a
slight warming trend back into the 90s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

With no real forcing expected through this evening, VFR conditions
are forecast to persist.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 301709
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1209 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

Quiet weather is forecast through today and much of tonight. Aside
from patches of early morning fog, especially in valleys and low
areas, expect ample sunshine throughout the day with large scale
subsidence across the forecast area from mid morning through the
evening. Afternoon temperatures should warm into the upper 80s to
around 90 given the widespread sun and 850 hPa temps around 20C. May
reach the convective temperature by mid afternoon across the area as
well, but the subsidence aloft will inhibit any showers and dry
weather is to be expected. Mostly clear skies will continue into the
evening but by the early morning hours the surface ridge will push
east of the forecast area with southerly return flow increasing
through sunrise. The south breeze should keep overnight lows in the
middle to upper 60s. Will see moisture advection on the low level
jet across central KS along with increasing isentropic ascent. This
may result in increasing clouds and a few showers or storms into the
highway 81 corridor by around sunrise and have introduced slight
chances after 09Z.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

By Sunday, the focus shifts to the next approaching mid-level trough
that will be progressing eastward across the northern Rockies. This
advancing trough will help to push an area of surface low pressure
into the High Plains and further into the Central Plains Sunday
night into Monday. At this time, the cold front associated with this
system may not move into north central Kansas until early evening,
however embedded shortwaves within the mid-level flow may spawn
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity over portions of
northern/north central Kansas during the afternoon hours. As the
front approaches the region, expect more widely scattered
thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the front mid/late
afternoon through the evening and overnight hours. Concern continues
to grow with regards to the potential for strong to severe storms to
develop across much of the forecast area during the late Sunday
afternoon and evening time frame. 00z model runs show a very notable
increase in the low-level jet (compared to yesterday`s 00z runs),
with a nose of 40-60kts at 850MB entering the region during the
evening. Models continue to suggest decent instability and shear,
along with modest low-level helicity, so there is an increasing
likelihood of supercell thunderstorm development with this activity.
The primary threats will be for large hail and damaging winds,
however cannot completely rule out the potential for an isolated
tornado or two. There also is the potential for locally heavy
rainfall as PWAT values reach upwards of 1.6-1.9 inches.  While many
locations across the forecast area are in need of decent rainfall, a
few locations have received some modest rainfall from the scattered
activity over the last couple of weeks, so those locations will be
more sensitive to this heavy rain potential.

This front should track east of the area by Monday afternoon,
however as the mid-level trough broadens out across much of the
northern U.S., it is expected to orient the front from west to east
and have it become nearly stationary just south of the forecast area
before potentially lifting northward into the region as a warm front
Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still a great deal of model
uncertainty though with the placement and tracking of this lingering
frontal boundary through the middle of next week. Additional
uncertainty lies with the potential for precipitation through the
week as models show several weak embedded shortwaves developing
along the southern edge of this broad trough (that results in fairly
zonal flow across the area), however they don`t seem to be agreeing
with the timing and location of these shortwaves and the scattered
thunderstorms that may develop from them. At this time, the better
chance for precipitation looks to be Monday night into Tuesday from
the lifting warm front, but have decreasing PoPs through mid week
and went dry for much of the latter part of the week due to too much
model uncertainty.

As for temperatures, another mild day is expected Sunday ahead of
the storm system as breezy southerly winds are expected with gusts
of 25-35mph possible. As a result, expect highs to reach into the
low/mid 90s. Slightly cooler conditions expected behind the system
and through the first part of next week with highs dropping into the
80s and low 90s. The temperature forecast for the latter part of the
week is more uncertain due to the discrepancies in how far north a
mid-level ridge will build over the region, but in general expect a
slight warming trend back into the 90s through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

With no real forcing expected through this evening, VFR conditions
are forecast to persist.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KDDC 301146
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 12 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
WYOMING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 12 TO 16 KNOT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301146
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
646 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A DRY AND SEASONABLY NORMAL PERIOD TEMPERATURE-WISE IS IN STORE IN
THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL
OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WEST, SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR THIS MORNING . TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE 80S IN THE MORNING HOURS, WITH FULL INSOLATION. THE
LOCAL GFS MOS WARMS TEMPERATURES QUICKER IN THE WEST IN THE LATE
MORNING THAN THE SHORT TERM CONSENSUS WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE
CURRENT CLOUDS OBSERVED AND IN OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST BY THE
SHORT TERM NUMERICAL MODELS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
SOUTHERLY TODAY AND PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GUST IN TO THE 15 TO 22
KNOTS RANGE WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY THE
NAM, WRF AND NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION SOUTH OF ELKHART, LIBERAL
AFTER 21 UTC IN AND AREA OF ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE. STEERING
FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE
EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE GENERAL THINKING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
FROM YESTERDAY. EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS
SEVERE WEATHER RISK STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD. IT IS PROMISING TO SEE
THE NAM12 UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FIELDS RESEMBLING THE ECMWF, WHICH
GIVES INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ITS LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE
FIELDS. THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WILL BE VERY GOOD OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND SURFACE FRONT. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SOUTHERNMOST SEVERE STORM WILL BE GIVEN THE
SUBSTANTIAL WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE FROM 900 TO 800MB. THE NAM12
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE DRYLINE.
ANY DRYLINE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING WOULD
CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF GREATER THAN 2-INCH DIAMETER HAIL GIVEN THE
EXCELLENT VEERING WIND PROFILE AMIDST 2500-3000 SBCAPE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK, HOWEVER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
NEED TO EXCEED ABOUT 63F TO INCREASE THE TORNADO RISK, WHICH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF MOISTURE POOLS ESPECIALLY ALONG DRYLINE-FRONT
INTERSECTION. 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE RAMPING UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY 03Z
MONDAY WITH 50-55KT 1KM AGL WINDS DEVELOPING THANKS TO DYNAMICALLY-
DRIVEN LOW LEVEL JET RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

NOT MUCH ELSE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS MONDAY AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING POLEWARD THE SURFACE FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  WE WILL
KEEP THE 30-40 CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REVISITED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF A MORE SOUTHERN TREND LOOKS MORE
PLAUSIBLE (GFS). OTHERWISE...A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE CARDS BEYOND
EARLY TUESDAY AS THE POLAR JET SHIFTS NORTH AND WE SEE A DECENT
WARMING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AGAIN LEADING TO A RETURN TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 12 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
WYOMING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP IN THE 12 TO 16 KNOT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  97  65 /  10  10  20  50
GCK  92  65  96  61 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  92  64  98  62 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  92  68  99  65 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  91  68  93  63 /  20  10  40  70
P28  92  69  95  71 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THIS LATEST UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCT FOR
OBSERVATION TRENDS IN PAST COUPLE HOURS OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARDS MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES PUSHING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES
ACROSS AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE PLAINS.

WITH THIS SET UP FOR THE AREA...WILL BE KEEPING CWA PRECIP-FREE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE EXPECTING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE
THRU THE DAY AS RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN ROCKIES. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDE AREAL COVERAGE
OF TRW FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TROUGH MEANDERS OFF
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDER
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT STRONG WAA TO
OCCUR INTO AREA. THIS WILL PUT 850/925 MB TEMPS +21C TO +25C/+30C TO
+35C RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE GOING FOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AS A
RESULT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S...HAMPERED ONLY BY CLD
COVER FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLDS AROUND
SCT080-090 BKN150 AFT 00Z SUN. VCSH POSSIBLE AFT 03Z SUNDAY. WINDS
NEAR VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS BECM SOUTHERLY 5-15 KTS BY 14Z-15Z
THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE FROM 17Z SAT-03Z SUN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOR THIS LATEST UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCT FOR
OBSERVATION TRENDS IN PAST COUPLE HOURS OTHERWISE FORECAST ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVING WAY TO HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARDS MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH...LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES PUSHING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES
ACROSS AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE PLAINS.

WITH THIS SET UP FOR THE AREA...WILL BE KEEPING CWA PRECIP-FREE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...WHILE EXPECTING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE
THRU THE DAY AS RIDGE SETS UP TO OUR EAST AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN ROCKIES. NOT LOOKING FOR WIDE AREAL COVERAGE
OF TRW FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TROUGH MEANDERS OFF
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDER
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERN ZONES TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT STRONG WAA TO
OCCUR INTO AREA. THIS WILL PUT 850/925 MB TEMPS +21C TO +25C/+30C TO
+35C RESPECTIVELY. WILL BE GOING FOR HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S AS A
RESULT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S...HAMPERED ONLY BY CLD
COVER FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NAM/GFS DO DIFFER SOME GOING INTO SUNDAY WITH RESPECT TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. NAM DIGS TROUGH A BIT DEEPER SOUTH BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...WITH GFS KEEPING BULK OF POTENTIAL PRECIP ACROSS
NEBRASKA AND POINTS NORTH. REMNANTS OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH DO CUT
OFF SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING SFC FRONT TO FORM LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ALONG FRONT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS...CLRING REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING.

MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO
AREA...WITH 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
ANY REMNANTS FROM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE
DAY...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES COULD SEE LIGHT TRW/RW ACTIVITY AS FRONT
SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.


HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR TRW/RW FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ENHANCED WORDING WILL BE NEEDED AS NEXT MODEL
RUNS PROGRESS AS LOOKING MORE LIKE A ROUND OF SEVERE WX IN
INEVITABLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN SL RISK FOR THIS
SYSTEM PASSAGE...WHICH WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS(PW/S 1 TO ~2").

TEMPS FOR SUN THRU MON NGT WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S DOWN TO THE
MID 80S DUE TO COOLER AIR INFILTRATION WITH LOW PASSAGE/PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST
EAST.

ON TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL DRIER AIR MASS
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST. ASIDE FROM NUDGING MIN
TEMPS TOWARD SOME OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE NO CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE BLEND THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES REESTABLISHED. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BY
THEN AND SO OVERALL FORCING IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IN WEAK WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO. THROUGH MID WEEK
INTO LATE WEEK PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES EXPECTED. MID LEVEL CLDS AROUND
SCT080-090 BKN150 AFT 00Z SUN. VCSH POSSIBLE AFT 03Z SUNDAY. WINDS
NEAR VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS BECM SOUTHERLY 5-15 KTS BY 14Z-15Z
THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE FROM 17Z SAT-03Z SUN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN




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