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000
FXUS63 KDDC 251212
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
712 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Quiet weather is likely in southwest Kansas today after the major
severe weather outbreak Tuesday afternoon and evening. An outflow
boundary from the convective cluster in eastern Kansas extended
from south of Medicine Lodge across southwest Kansas into east
central Colorado early this morning, and an area of surface low
pressure was centered near the Colorado/Kansas border south of
GLD. A vigorous upper level trough was evident on satellite
imagery from eastern Montana into eastern Colorado at 08Z. The
surface low should move east into north central Kansas as the
upper level trough progresses into the eastern Dakotas later
today, and low level flow will become southwest as the convective
outflow erodes this morning. Low level moisture will erode during
the day, and a dryline will become established across central
Kansas this afternoon. A minor upper level trough approaching the
Four Corners area will move into northwest Kansas and southern
Nebraska this afternoon, and a few thunderstorms may develop in
the richer low level moisture north of the surface cyclone in
northern Kansas. Other thunderstorms can be expected near the
dryline across central Kansas.

Downslope flow, clearing skies and drier low level air will allow
temperatures this afternoon to rise into the 80s and lower 90s
with the warmest temperatures in the southwest corner of the
state. Temperatures will be modulated downward slightly in areas
that received heavy rainfall Tuesday as a consequence of
evaporation of ponded water. Mostly clear skies and relatively dry
air will allow temperatures tonight to fall back to near seasonal
averages in the 50s and lower 60s.

An upper level cyclone centered near the coast of southern
California this morning will eject northeast as another upper
level trough near the British Columbia coast drops into the
western United States long wave position. This upper level cyclone
should reach eastern Colorado Friday morning. Surface cyclogenesis
will occur in southeast Colorado Thursday as the upper level
cyclone approaches, and low level flow in western Kansas will back
and increase as pressures fall in southeast Colorado. Low level
moisture will surge back into southwest Kansas, but some
uncertainty exists about exactly where the dryline will become
established Thursday afternoon. The current guidance suggests that
the rich low level moisture will spread back at least as far west
as Dodge City. Increasing mid and upper level flow over the rich
moisture east of the dryline will provide an environment favorable
for development of supercell thunderstorms with all of the
attendant severe weather phenomena again Thursday, especially from
Dodge City east. Mesoscale details will become better defined
later, but the potential exists for another outbreak of severe
weather with a few tornadoes Thursday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

The upper level cyclone that moves into eastern Colorado Friday
morning will progress slowly across western Kansas into eastern
Nebraska by Saturday morning. The GFS is quicker to eject the
upper level cyclone than the ECMWF and GEM. Given the very blocky
pattern with an upper level cyclone in central Canada, the slower
solution advertised by the ECMWF seems more reasonable. A diffuse
surface cyclone should move slowly into central Kansas Friday
afternoon with a weak Pacific cold front extending into the Texas
Panhandle. Cold air aloft with the upper level cyclone will
provide sufficient instability for thunderstorm development across
much of Kansas Friday. Temperature Friday will be cooler as a
consequence of cloud cover wrapping around the surface cyclone.
Weak ridging behind the upper level trough should keep Saturday
quiet, but another upper level trough rotating around the western
United States mean long wave trough will approach Kansas on Sunday
and support more thunderstorms. Another minor trough should
approach on Monday. Weaker flow should reduce the potential for
significant severe weather, but there may be some threat of severe
weather each day.

Upper level ridging should build over the Rockies the first part
of next week, and a cold front will move across Kansas Tuesday or
Tuesday night as a progressive upper level trough moves across the
Northern Plains and digs toward the Great Lakes. There may be a
few days of meteorologically benign weather next week with north
to northwest anticyclonic flow aloft over the High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 707 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Fog development at DDC and GCK should rapidly diminish this
morning as the surface warms. VFR can then be expected for the
rest of the TAF period once the thin stratus layer also
completely erodes. Convection is not expected today as the dryline
advances further east.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Widespread rainfall estimated by radar to be from three to five
inches in northern Pratt and southern Stafford Counties likely has
resulted in considerable ponding of surface water. Law enforcement
has not reported any significant problems with runoff, and the
soil in that area is sandy and should absorb much of the water. An
areal flood warning will be maintained this morning.

Other heavy rainfall occurred from Edwards County into Pawnee
County and in eastern Lane and western Ness Counties. Although
some small streams likely will be running high, major flooding is
unlikely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  57  88  57 /   0  10  40  40
GCK  90  52  88  53 /   0  10  20  30
EHA  90  54  86  51 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  91  54  89  54 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  87  57  85  60 /   0   0  40  40
P28  90  66  88  64 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Russell
HYDROLOGY...Ruthi



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000
FXUS63 KICT 251158
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Numerous thunderstorms containing torrential rains continue across
Butler, Cowley & Elk Counties at 230 AM where Flood & Flash Flood
Warnings are in effect. Thunderstorms are being sustained by strong
lower-deck theta-e advection enhanced by lift induced by mid-level
shortwave sprinting NE across SE KS. Hourly rainfalls are in the 1
to 3 inch range in extreme Ern Sumner & NW Cowley Counties. The
cloud-to-ground lightning continues to be frequent & dangerous.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Forecast Highlight:
More severe thunderstorms possible for SE KS this afternoon & this
evening.

Significant threat for severe thunderstorms with large-very large
hail, winds around 70 mph & tornadoes continues for areas primarily
along & W of I35-I/135 Thu Afternoon & Night.

Today & Tonight:
With the afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave continuing to sprint
NE across the Mid & Upr MS Valley thunderstorms would be greatest
across SE KS where aligned with broad ultra-high octane moisture
axis. Deep-layer shear, more so directional, remains impressive &
with very high instability there`s a continued threat for severe
thunderstorms for SE KS both this afternoon & tonight.

Thu & Thu Night:
The greatest threat for significant severe thunderstorms is still
expected for areas along, and W, of I-35/I-135. A deep upper-deck
trof that`ll push slowly E across AZ & NM will undergo cyclogenesis
as it lifts SLOWLY NE to NE NM, the TX & OK Panhandles & the CO/KS
border. This would induce increased deep-layer ascent over the Wrn
Plains that would transition E toward Central KS. The slow NE lift
of the upper low would of course induce pronounced sfc cyclogenesis
over SE CO & Wrn KS on Thu. This would strengthen the lower-mid
level moist advection across KS with the most pronounced advection
targeting Central parts of OK & KS. This time deep-layer speed
shear would be strong & coupled with respectable directional shear
supercells would once erupt over these areas & move NE. The
supercells should arrive areas along & W of I-35/I-135 late Thu
Afternoon & continue thru the night. SPC has expanded the "Enhanced
Risk" N as far as Srn Nebraska. As such "Severe Thunderstorms With
Large Hail And Damaging Winds" have been assigned to the afore-
mentioned areas.

Fri & Fri Night:
The threat for severe thunderstorms is beginning to increase Fri
Afternoon & Evening. The greatest severe threat would shift slowly
E. For now SPC has assigned "Slight Risk" to E TX & SE OK, but
wouldn`t be surprised if the "Slight Risk" assignment is eventually
spread N across Central & Ern KS. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For Sat & Sat Night the GFS & ECMWF continue to agree quite well
with overall pattern, although the ECMWF is bit stronger with the
departing upper-deck shortwave, scheduled to reach the Upper MS
Valley Sat Night. A 2nd upper-deck trof is forecast to move E &
like it`s predecessor it`ll move slowly E & strengthen as it digs
across Srn CA. A "lead" shortwave will eject NE, likely reaching
Wrn OK & Wrn KS Sun Afternoon. As such, there`ll be several rounds
of thunderstorms from Sun Afternoon thru next Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Expect some scattered MVFR CIGS in the wake of the overnight
convective complex. This will lead to some of the lowest CIGS near
KRSL, KGBD and KRSL. Expect the low clouds to dissipate later this
morning with VFR conditions returning to most locations for the
afternoon hours.  Will also see some lingering SHRA/TSRA in SE KS as
the complex of storms exits the area this morning.

For the afternoon hours, expect a dry line/boundary to push to near
the KS Turnpike late this afternoon. Could see isolated convection
develop along and east of this boundary for the late afternoon and
evening hours. Think most of the convection will develop well to the
east of the KICT TAF, so will not mention it in KICT just yet.  But
will mention it for most of the evening hours for the KCNU Taf with
the isolated storms expected to congeal into a forward propagating
complex of storms that will move east into Wrn MO early on Thu.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  70  87  67 /  10  10  40  50
Hutchinson      89  67  87  66 /  10  10  50  50
Newton          89  69  86  66 /  20  20  40  50
ElDorado        88  70  86  67 /  20  20  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   89  71  87  67 /  20  10  40  50
Russell         89  61  88  62 /  20  10  40  50
Great Bend      89  61  88  63 /  10  10  50  40
Salina          90  67  89  66 /  20  20  40  50
McPherson       89  68  87  66 /  20  10  40  50
Coffeyville     86  71  86  68 /  50  20  30  50
Chanute         86  71  86  67 /  40  20  30  50
Iola            85  71  86  67 /  50  20  30  60
Parsons-KPPF    86  71  86  68 /  50  20  30  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...BDK



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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251116
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper flow will be southwest today/tonight ahead of an upper low
that will move into the 4-corners areas Thursday.  The upper low
will move into eastern Colorado Thursday night. The low then moves
into northwest Kansas Friday and into northcentral Kansas Friday
night. A surface trough will be over northwest Kansas today and
tonight.  A surface low will organize over southeast Colorado
Thursday.  The surface low will move into northwest Kansas Friday
and then into northcentral kansas Friday night.

Subsidence will move into the fa this morning behind the exiting
wave.  By this afternoon, some lift will develop over an axis of
instability where there will be a slight chance of storms.
Any storms will move northeast with subsidence returning to the fa
early this evening.  Late this evening another shortwave will
produce some lift across the northern fa for storms overnight.
Storms will be possible early Thursday and continue Thursday night
and Friday.  Dynamics and moisture favor the northwest fa during
this time. By Friday night the focus for storms shifts over the
eastern fa as the low moves east. Shear and cape are both supportive
of severe storms through Friday.  Shear and cape drop off Friday
night so that there should be no severe threat and that thunder will
be isolated with showers the dominant type of weather.

STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE MOVED INTO THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH POINTS OUT THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

Max temperatures should reach the lower 80s today.  Cooler readings
can be expected Thursday ranging from the lower 70s in eastern
Colorado to the lower 80s in the eastern fa. Max temperatures Friday
should range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.  Min temperatures
should be in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s in eastern
Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

At the start of the extended mid level ridging will allow for
periods of dry conditions heading into Saturday. Starting Saturday
night and going through the end of the extended period, expect an
increase chance of rainshowers and thunderstroms as shortwaves will
move around the base of approaching upper level low over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Rockies area.

Temperatures will be in the near to above normal range during the
extended period with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with some
areas reaching the lower 80s. Overnight lows will range in the 50s
with some upper 40s in Northeastern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 508 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

LIFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 15Z AS WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR AT KGLD AND
KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS AT
KMCK THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KICT 250850
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
350 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Numerous thunderstorms containing torrential rains continue across
Butler, Cowley & Elk Counties at 230 AM where Flood & Flash Flood
Warnings are in effect. Thunderstorms are being sustained by strong
lower-deck theta-e advection enhanced by lift induced by mid-level
shortwave sprinting NE across SE KS. Hourly rainfalls are in the 1
to 3 inch range in extreme Ern Sumner & NW Cowley Counties. The
cloud-to-ground lightning continues to be frequent & dangerous.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Forecast Highlight:
More severe thunderstorms possible for SE KS this afternoon & this
evening.

Significant threat for severe thunderstorms with large-very large
hail, winds around 70 mph & tornadoes continues for areas primarily
along & W of I35-I/135 Thu Afternoon & Night.

Today & Tonight:
With the afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave continuing to sprint
NE across the Mid & Upr MS Valley thunderstorms would be greatest
across SE KS where aligned with broad ultra-high octane moisture
axis. Deep-layer shear, more so directional, remains impressive &
with very high instability there`s a continued threat for severe
thunderstorms for SE KS both this afternoon & tonight.

Thu & Thu Night:
The greatest threat for significant severe thunderstorms is still
expected for areas along, and W, of I-35/I-135. A deep upper-deck
trof that`ll push slowly E across AZ & NM will undergo cyclogenesis
as it lifts SLOWLY NE to NE NM, the TX & OK Panhandles & the CO/KS
border. This would induce increased deep-layer ascent over the Wrn
Plains that would transition E toward Central KS. The slow NE lift
of the upper low would of course induce pronounced sfc cyclogenesis
over SE CO & Wrn KS on Thu. This would strengthen the lower-mid
level moist advection across KS with the most pronounced advection
targeting Central parts of OK & KS. This time deep-layer speed
shear would be strong & coupled with respectable directional shear
supercells would once erupt over these areas & move NE. The
supercells should arrive areas along & W of I-35/I-135 late Thu
Afternoon & continue thru the night. SPC has expanded the "Enhanced
Risk" N as far as Srn Nebraska. As such "Severe Thunderstorms With
Large Hail And Damaging Winds" have been assigned to the afore-
mentioned areas.

Fri & Fri Night:
The threat for severe thunderstorms is beginning to increase Fri
Afternoon & Evening. The greatest severe threat would shift slowly
E. For now SPC has assigned "Slight Risk" to E TX & SE OK, but
wouldn`t be surprised if the "Slight Risk" assignment is eventually
spread N across Central & Ern KS. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

For Sat & Sat Night the GFS & ECMWF continue to agree quite well
with overall pattern, although the ECMWF is bit stronger with the
departing upper-deck shortwave, scheduled to reach the Upper MS
Valley Sat Night. A 2nd upper-deck trof is forecast to move E &
like it`s predecessor it`ll move slowly E & strengthen as it digs
across Srn CA. A "lead" shortwave will eject NE, likely reaching
Wrn OK & Wrn KS Sun Afternoon. As such, there`ll be several rounds
of thunderstorms from Sun Afternoon thru next Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Evolving mesoscale convective system over central Kansas will
move east overnight with brief periods of IFR/MVFR VSBYS in
heavy rain and strong, gusty winds. Some MVFR CIGS can also
be expected Wednesday morning. A moist south to southeast wind
will continue on Wednesday and become gusty along and east of
the I-135 corridor. Some late day convection is also possible
though probably more isolated in nature.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  70  87  67 /  10  10  40  50
Hutchinson      89  67  87  66 /  10  10  50  50
Newton          89  69  86  66 /  20  20  40  50
ElDorado        88  70  86  67 /  20  20  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   89  71  87  67 /  20  10  40  50
Russell         89  61  88  62 /  20  10  40  50
Great Bend      89  61  88  63 /  10  10  50  40
Salina          90  67  89  66 /  20  20  40  50
McPherson       89  68  87  66 /  20  10  40  50
Coffeyville     86  71  86  68 /  50  20  30  50
Chanute         86  71  86  67 /  40  20  30  50
Iola            85  71  86  67 /  50  20  30  60
Parsons-KPPF    86  71  86  68 /  50  20  30  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250846
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
246 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper flow will be southwest today/tonight ahead of an upper low
that will move into the 4-corners areas Thursday.  The upper low
will move into eastern Colorado Thursday night. The low then moves
into northwest Kansas Friday and into northcentral Kansas Friday
night. A surface trough will be over northwest Kansas today and
tonight.  A surface low will organize over southeast Colorado
Thursday.  The surface low will move into northwest Kansas Friday
and then into northcentral kansas Friday night.

Subsidence will move into the fa this morning behind the exiting
wave.  By this afternoon, some lift will develop over an axis of
instability where there will be a slight chance of storms.
Any storms will move northeast with subsidence returning to the fa
early this evening.  Late this evening another shortwave will
produce some lift across the northern fa for storms overnight.
Storms will be possible early Thursday and continue Thursday night
and Friday.  Dynamics and moisture favor the northwest fa during
this time. By Friday night the focus for storms shifts over the
eastern fa as the low moves east. Shear and cape are both supportive
of severe storms through Friday.  Shear and cape drop off Friday
night so that there should be no severe threat and that thunder will
be isolated with showers the dominant type of weather.

STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE MOVED INTO THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH POINTS OUT THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

Max temperatures should reach the lower 80s today.  Cooler readings
can be expected Thursday ranging from the lower 70s in eastern
Colorado to the lower 80s in the eastern fa. Max temperatures Friday
should range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.  Min temperatures
should be in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s in eastern
Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

At the start of the extended mid level ridging will allow for
periods of dry conditions heading into Saturday. Starting Saturday
night and going through the end of the extended period, expect an
increase chance of rainshowers and thunderstroms as shortwaves will
move around the base of approaching upper level low over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Rockies area.

Temperatures will be in the near to above normal range during the
extended period with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with some
areas reaching the lower 80s. Overnight lows will range in the 50s
with some upper 40s in Northeastern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

For KGLD...vfr conditions expected through 8z with winds from the
southeast at 10 mph quickly shifting to the southwest. From 9z
through 14z stratus expected with visibilities possibly down to
2sm creating mvfr conditions with winds from the west then
northwest under 10 mph. Cigs improve to vfr by 15z with only a few
clouds at best for the rest of the taf period. Winds expected from
the north 5-10kts around 18z then back all the way around to the
east-southeast for the remainder of the taf period.

For KMCK...vfr conditions expected through 7z with cigs and vis
lowering to mvfr/ifr range through 13z with winds light from the
east. As winds switch around to the northwest cigs improve to vfr
and continue through the rest of the period. Surface winds
generally variable at speeds around 5kts or so.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250625
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
125 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Focus in the short term is severe weather tonight. Satellite shows cumulus
across southwest Kansas. Sfc analysis shows an old outflow boundary
moving north across the forecast district and a dryline farther to the
southwest. We launched at 19Z special sounding. There is plenty of SBCAPE
with values over 4000 J/kg. The sounding did show a significant cap
in place, but this should erode over time with continued sfc heating.
Wind shear is supportive for supercells with 38 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear
and 21 kt of 0-1 km shear for tornadoes. The 12Z 4 km NAM showed intense
supercells across southwest Kansas with significant updraft helicity.
The HRRR is showing the same thing, although differs in location of
the storms. Convection should form along the boundary across southwest
Kansas (probably from Garden City down to Meade) and then move to the
east through this evening. Threats will include tornadoes (some of which
could be strong), giant hail of 3-4", and outflow winds as the system
could form into a line later on in the evening. The central zones are
most under the gun as far as severe weather is concerned.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The next chance for storms in on Thursday as a wave moves out. Severe
weather is possible once again during the afternoon and evening. The
best chance of storms will be across the eastern zones. Beyond this
we may see another chance of storms next weekend. Temperatures through
the extended period will be on the warm to near normal side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

An outflow boundary from the large convective cluster in central
and eastern Kansas extended from west central Kansas into
northwest Oklahoma at 06Z, and widespread ceilings near 025 can be
expected through at least 08Z. As the outflow erodes later
tonight. flow above the boundary layer will become southwest in
response to falling pressures in the northern plains, and the
stratus should erode before sunrise. Southwest low level winds
around 10 kts will prevail during the daylight hours, and dry air
is likely to spread across all of southwest Kansas. A few cumulus
clouds with bases near 060 should form in the afternoon,
especially near HYS. Thunderstorms today should remain east of the
TAF sites.

Low level dry air will persist Wednesday night at TAF sites,
although low level moisture will spread back west quickly on
Thursday. VFR conditions are expected through at least Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  89  57  87 /  70   0   0  20
GCK  58  90  52  87 /  40   0   0  20
EHA  53  90  52  86 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  56  91  54  89 /  20   0   0  10
HYS  56  87  57  85 /  70   0   0  50
P28  65  90  66  88 /  70   0   0  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Ruthi



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000
FXUS63 KTOP 250548
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1248 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

A familiar synoptic pattern is seen in the 19Z water vapor imagery.
With a mean trough still over the west and northern Rockies,
southwesterly flow aloft remains over the central plains. A surface
low was again analyzed over the OK panhandle with a dryline
extending south through west TX. Outflow from morning storms has
muddled up the surface pattern over northeast KS and the better
moisture convergence is appears to be over southwest KS between the
surface low and the outflow boundary over southern KS.

A lot of this forecast is based on expected persistence of the
pattern and previous nights. Think that storms will once again
develop over southwestern KS and congeal into an MCS moving across
eastern KS tonight. The HRRR/ARW/NMM show a bowing MCS developing
this evening and move it across the forecast area by the late
evening. 0-6KM shear remains rather marginal around 30KT so the main
concerns with the storms will be damaging winds, hail and localized
flash flooding. Have likely POPs going tonight, but confidence is
only medium as some of the models still show various tracks to the
MCS. POPs taper down during the morning Wednesday as models move the
storms through earlier in the night. Although if an MCV is slow to
move east, there could be some lingering precip late in the morning.

Lows tonight should be in the lower to mid 60s with rain cooled air
helping to cool temps more so than they would be without precip.
Highs Wednesday are forecast to be in the lower and mid 80s as
models advect warmer air into eastern KS with 850MB temps warming to
around 22C and 700MB temps between 8 and 10C. Because of this,
forecast soundings show an elevated mixed layer capping the boundary
layer through much of the afternoon. So the question becomes whether
there is enough convergence along the dryline to force storms
because large scale forcing again appears to be weak at best. Most
guidance seems to keep the boundary layer capped as they do not
generate much QPF in the afternoon, so have kept some small POPs in
the forecast for Wednesday afternoon on the small chance a storm
develops.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Wednesday Night Friday...

Convective chances by early evening will be dependent on what
mesoscale boundaries will be present from any convection earlier in
the day. Otherwise the dryline and front will be located west of the
forecast area. There is not much in the way of upper support,
however the models suggest that there may be a weak wave moving out
of western Kansas into Nebraska Wednesday night. Instability,
moisture and shear will be sufficient for a few severe storms with
hail and wind the main hazards and a low probability for tornadoes.
Thursday may start out dry as models move off an MCS well east by
12Z Thursday. The models have slowed the ejection of the main energy
ejecting out of the western trough, but do eject a lead shortwave
out into the Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Forecast
soundings show Steepening lapse rates and increasing shear around 30
to 35 kts toward 00Z Friday along with mlcape around 2500 J/kg.
Expect thunderstorms to develop along the front and dryline then
move northeast and east across the CWA during the evening and
overnight hours. Have maintained higher precipitation chances for
Thursday night and Friday as the upper level trough advances out
into the Plains. Forcing will also be aided by left exit region of
the upper jet across central and north central Kansas on Friday. Any
ongoing precipitation will likely leave mesoscale boundaries across
parts of the area by Friday afternoon.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

The active spring pattern will continue through the extended period.
Friday night an upper level trough across the four-corners region
will eject northeastward into the central plains. A strong vort-max
will will eject across the forecast area Friday evening into
Saturday morning, bringing likely chances for thunderstorms across
the entire area. Strong to severe thunderstorms will also be
possible as sufficient CAPE and shear will be in place. The
remainder of the period will consist of southwest flow aloft and
embedded weak upper-level waves. With the plentiful boundary layer
moisture that will be in place, have at least slight chance PoPs
through the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Weakening TSRA complex moving through the terminals. Winds will be
a challenge over the next few hours but should become south to
southeast by 10Z. There continue to be signals of MVFR stratus
into the 18z period and will go along at this point. Too much
uncertainty for any late period TSRA at this point.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Baerg/53
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250500
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1100 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.

Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night.  A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight.  The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.

a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms.  Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa.  Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil.  A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night.  Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
pops.

Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Going into Wednesday night...weak surface low out over the Central
Plains ahead of slow moving upper low/trough over the Rockies...will
combine with a boundary over the Kansas/Nebraska border to bring
some light rw/trw activity to mainly northern areas thru the
overnight period. By Thursday as upper trough/low begins to shift
eastward into the plains and exits the area slowly by late Friday.
some mid level ridging will allow for periods of dry conditions
going into the first half of the weekend...do expect increase in
areal coverage of rw/trw late Saturday night on through the
beginning of next week as a couple of shortwave move around the base
of approaching upper low from the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies.

The entire Tri State region will have chances for trw/rw for much of
the extended period. Lowest probability will occur on Saturday as
weak ridging occurs. Best chances for precip will occur Thursday
and Thursday night with the arrival of the enhanced dynamics of
the upper low combining with remnants of surface low/frontal
boundary. SPC currently has a slight risk for severe wx for the
entire cwa w/ focus on eastern/northern areas ahead and north of
low where best moisture/lift will occur...aided in part along the
remnants frontal boundary. Blocking h5 ridge over the eastern
portion of the country will stall the exit of this
system...allowing for wrap-around moisture to keep chances for
trw/rw into Friday before tapering off.

For temps...looking for mainly near to above normal numbers for the
extended period with mainly mid to upper 70s for daytime highs. Some
locales in eastern/southeastern zones could reach the lower 80s. The
slow passage of the upper low Thursday/Friday will provide enough
caa into nw zones to keep upper 60s for some areas. Overnight lowswill
range in the 50s with some upper 40s in ne Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

For KGLD...vfr conditions expected through 8z with winds from the
southeast at 10 mph quickly shifting to the southwest. From 9z
through 14z stratus expected with visibilities possibly down to
2sm creating mvfr conditions with winds from the west then
northwest under 10 mph. Cigs improve to vfr by 15z with only a few
clouds at best for the rest of the taf period. Winds expected from
the north 5-10kts around 18z then back all the way around to the
east-southeast for the remainder of the taf period.

For KMCK...vfr conditions expected through 7z with cigs and vis
lowering to mvfr/ifr range through 13z with winds light from the
east. As winds switch around to the northwest cigs improve to vfr
and continue through the rest of the period. Surface winds
generally variable at speeds around 5kts or so.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KICT 242315
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Water vapor imagery still shows the main upper energy back over
the desert southwest with a weak impulse now lifting over western
CO into NW NM. At the surface, there are a number of
outflow/gravity waves south and southwest of our forecast area.
The more robust one stretches from nw of KOKC to near KGCK with a
more subtle one extending from KEND to near KDDC. A storm have
developed on the boundary over north central OK and is now diving
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Confidence is high that surface based storms will develop near the
intersection of the dryline and outflow after 4pm which will be
over SW KS/OK panhandle. This activity will slowly migrate east
this evening and may grow upscale as 850-700mb theta-e advection
ramps up. How far east surface based storms make it and where
additional elevated convection form is very uncertain. It`s not
out of the question that the surface based storms die off as they
approach western flank of forecast area as elevated storms develop
near or north of I-70 later. For now, the general theme of higher severe
chances generally west of I-135 looks good for tonight, with low
confidence in how far east the more robust convection makes it.

Weak upper energy will track of the central/northern Rockies for
Wed and will push the better moisture east, generally east of
I-135. The big question for storms Wed afternoon/evening will be
whether there will be enough surface convergence to get storms to
develop as the dryline washes out and becomes much less defined.
While the better surface convergence remains down in OK Wed, will
linger some small pops in case a storm or two can develop Wed
afternoon/early evening. If a storm can develop, it would quickly
become severe with greater than 3,500J/KG of CAPE.

The main vort lobe looks to lift out across the Plains for the
Thu-Fri time period. By 00z Fri this feature will be over southern
CO/northern NM and by 00z Sat will be out over western KS. This
should allow for better areal coverage for storms late Thu
afternoon/evening. At this time thinking that the dryline will
setup just west of our forecast area Thu, generally from Medicine
Lodge to near Hays. Storms that develop in this area would have a
good chance of affecting locations along and west of I-135. With
deep layer shear increasing and high instability remaining, higher
end severe looks possible Thu afternoon/evening with any storms
that develop along the dryline. Storms should become more numerous
Fri for much of the forecast area as the upper wave starts to
directly impact central/eastern KS. While severe storms will be
possible with any storm Fri, upper winds will back ahead of the
upper wave, reducing good directional shear above 850mb. So while
the higher end severe may not be as likely, the number of storms
affecting central and eastern Kansas will be higher Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

By 12z Sat there is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF that
the upper wave will be lifting over northeast KS, pushing the
better convective chances northeast of the forecast area. However,
we quickly get back into SW flow aloft, albeit weak. This will
allow the better low level moisture to lift back across the
central Plains. What makes it tough through these extended periods
is the lack of a surface focus or distinct upper wave to focus on.
In addition, upper winds will be considerably weaker than the
current sw flow pattern we are in. So, with plenty of instability
it will not take much to get a storm to develop. Have a slight
lean toward the better storm chances being at night with low level
jet processes helping initiate storms. Confidence is high that
temps will be close to or slightly above seasonal normals through
this extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A moist southeast surface flow will continue across the area
with MVFR CIGS expected to develop overnight into early
Wednesday morning. Scattered strong to severe convection
over northern Oklahoma and western Kansas may affect some
locations west of the Kansas turnpike late this evening with
potential for scattered strong storms overnight across much
of the area.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  87  69  86 /  40  20  10  30
Hutchinson      66  88  67  85 /  40  10  10  30
Newton          67  87  68  85 /  40  20  10  30
ElDorado        67  87  70  85 /  40  20  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   68  87  71  85 /  40  20  10  30
Russell         63  87  59  86 /  60  10  10  40
Great Bend      64  88  60  87 /  60  10  10  30
Salina          64  88  66  88 /  40  20  20  30
McPherson       65  88  67  85 /  40  20  10  30
Coffeyville     68  84  71  85 /  40  30  20  20
Chanute         68  84  71  85 /  40  30  20  20
Iola            67  84  70  85 /  40  30  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    68  84  71  85 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED




000
FXUS63 KGLD 242305
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.

Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night.  A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight.  The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.

a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms.  Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa.  Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil.  A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night.  Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
pops.

Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Going into Wednesday night...weak surface low out over the Central
Plains ahead of slow moving upper low/trough over the Rockies...will
combine with a boundary over the Kansas/Nebraska border to bring
some light rw/trw activity to mainly northern areas thru the
overnight period. By Thursday as upper trough/low begins to shift
eastward into the plains and exits the area slowly by late Friday.
some mid level ridging will allow for periods of dry conditions
going into the first half of the weekend...do expect increase in
areal coverage of rw/trw late Saturday night on through the
beginning of next week as a couple of shortwave move around the base
of approaching upper low from the Pacific NW/Northern Rockies.

The entire Tri State region will have chances for trw/rw for much of
the extended period. Lowest probability will occur on Saturday as
weak ridging occurs. Best chances for precip will occur Thursday
and Thursday night with the arrival of the enhanced dynamics of
the upper low combining with remnants of surface low/frontal
boundary. SPC currently has a slight risk for severe wx for the
entire cwa w/ focus on eastern/northern areas ahead and north of
low where best moisture/lift will occur...aided in part along the
remnants frontal boundary. Blocking h5 ridge over the eastern
portion of the country will stall the exit of this
system...allowing for wrap-around moisture to keep chances for
trw/rw into Friday before tapering off.

For temps...looking for mainly near to above normal numbers for the
extended period with mainly mid to upper 70s for daytime highs. Some
locales in eastern/southeastern zones could reach the lower 80s. The
slow passage of the upper low Thursday/Friday will provide enough
caa into nw zones to keep upper 60s for some areas. Overnight lowswill
range in the 50s with some upper 40s in ne Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue May 24 2016

KGLD...currently expecting vfr conditions through the period. Am
concerned about model boundary layer moisture that at present time
is overdone with forecast ceilings. This moisture ramps up early
to mid evening and continues through the early morning hours
before lifting northeast away from the terminal. Have scattered
clouds around 400` as a start and will watch closely. Winds begin
the period from the southeast around 11-12kts with some gusts then
shift to the southwest under 10kts around 8z. Winds continue to
veer around to the west and northwest near 10kts from 9z to 18z
then back to the southwest around 7kts from 19z through the rest
of the taf period.

KMCK...similar to KGLD am concerned about models handling of low
level moisture and possibility that cigs wont be as low as they
suggest. Otherwise am expecting thunderstorms around/over the
terminal from 6z through about 11z. Vfr cigs at taf issuance
expected to decrease to ifr/vlifr range by 6z and continue through
16z. after 17z drier air moves in from the southwest allowing vfr
conditions to return through the rest of the taf period.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241802
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1202 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Due to current ongoing storms and severe weather will wait to issue
the morning forecast until severe watch 202 is cancelled.

Southwest flow will persist across the central plains from today
through Thursday night.  A surface trough will exist over eastern
Colorado today and tonight.  The trough will move into northwest
Kansas Wednesday and Wednesday night and then align itself along the
Colorado/Kansas border Thursday night.

a shortwave is advertised to come through the flow this afternoon
and evening. The surface wind field suggests convergence to support
thunderstorm initiation across the northern fa. There is good
instability and shear to produce severe thunderstorms.  Subsidence
moves into the fa Wednesdays morning behind the exiting shortwave.
Even through there is an apparent weak disturbance in the flow
WEDNESDAY afternoon, dynamics and instability are weak so will make
pops nil until late evening when some lift is shown mainly across
the far north fa.  Subsidence follows Thursday morning so pops will
be nil.  A strong shortwave comes into the area Thursday afternoon
and night.  Good dynamics with this feature warrant higher chance
pops.

Max temperatures today through Thursday should range from the upper
70s in eastern Colorado to the lower 80s across northwest Kansas.
Min temperatures tonight should cool to the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

Heading into the weekend a meandering surface boundary sets up over
the Central Plains out ahead of a upper level trough over the
Rockies. Models show this system shifting eastward of the region
Friday night, before lifting into North Central Nebraska.

Potential for showers and thunderstorms increases over the
holiday weekend as remnants from the prior boundary looks to
remain over the region and another upper level low moving through
the North Central Rockies.

Look for much the same at the beginning of the work week as
another system looks to move through the region.

With a general southwesterly upper flow over the region, look for
near to above normal temperatures through the extended as decent
warm air advection over the area. Daytime highs will range from
the mid 70s thru the mid 80s. Overnight lows will range from the
upper 40s thru the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Tue May 24 2016

MVFR stratocu slowly breaking up and lifting at KGLD. Expecting
marginally VFR conditions to take hold shortly. Afternoon
thunderstorms will develop once again today. Anticipating
development along a remnant outflow boundary over southwest Kansas
with storms moving northeast into northwest Kansas. This area of
storms could impact KGLD but anticipate most activity to remain
southeast. Therefore, only mentioned VCTS for KGLD. Another area
of storms will develop near the Denver Metro, spreading east
through the evening. It is this area of storms that are most
likely to impact KMCK. A late evening arrival seems most probable
from latest suite of guidance.

Late tonight, LLWS may develop as a low level jet strengthens.
Remain a little unsure on the timing and height of the LLWS so for
now did not input LLWS into the TAF. Stratus/fog development is
forecast along a boundary over northeast Colorado. This deserves a
watchful eye depending on how storms impact the boundary layer.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KICT 241707
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Forecast Highlight:
Sever thunderstorm potential increasing for much of South-Central
KS along & W of I-35/I-135 late this afternoon & Evening.

Today & Tonight:
Numerous strong & severe thunderstorms continue to occur across Nrn
KS in pronounced E/W-oriented convergent axis no doubt enhanced by
moisture-rich low-level jet/convective outflow interaction. Still
expect convection to s-l-o-w-l-y wane this morning as low-level jet
weakens. Attention shifts to this afternoon & evening, most notably
South-Central KS along & W of I-35/I-135. A mid-level shortwave is
still expected to strengthen considerably as it lifts ne from Ern
NM across the TX Panhandle this afternoon and reaching SW KS early
this evening. With high octane fuel continuing to stream N across
KS & the approaching shortwave inducing pronounced deep shear, both
speed & directional (more so directional) severe thunderstorms are
scheduled to develop from Ern parts of the TX & OK Panhandles to SW
& SC KS late this afternoon & evening. SPC has assigned an enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas which clearly makes
sense. CAPES are extremely high & although the GFS may be getting a
a CAPE adrenaline rush by projecting MLCAPES venturing into 5000
to 6000J/KG country there`s no doubt the airmass will be VERY
unstable. This warrants a "Severe Thunderstorms with Large Hail
and Damaging Wind" assignment to SC KS along & W of I-35/I-135.
There`s also an increasing potential for a few tornadoes for these
areas during these periods. Stay tuned.

Wed-Thu Night:
The afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave will shear as it sprints NE
toward, then across, the Mid-MS Valley Wed Afternoon & Evening, but
a 2nd & stronger mid-upper shortwave is scheduled to surge SE from
the Nrn Rockies. This character will likely induce mid-level
cyclogenesis over AZ & NM Wed Night. As the strong mid-upper wave
pushes ENE toward the Front Range deep-scale ascent will increase
& also find rich moisture with which to interact. As such more
severe thunderstorms are very possible for the latter parts of the
work-week. Wed & Wed Night appear most volatile for SE KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

With mid-range models in better agreement the inherited forecast
has been kept intact.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Thunderstorm and stratus potential.

Small chances for thunderstorms this afternoon near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border near a west to east oriented convective outflow
boundary. Any of this activity that may develop is expected to
stay south of the ICT and CNU terminals through 00z. Otherwise, a
better chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be late this
afternoon/evening...with development first occurring in western
Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. These storms will have an
eastward motion and could reach around the I-135 corridor toward
mid-late evening. Highest probabilities initially will be at the
RSL and GBD terminals where a tempo +TSRA is planned early this
eve, and will use VCTS as far east as SLN and ICT Terminals.
Strong-severe outflow wind gusts and potentially large hail could
accompany this storm activity.

Southeasterly, continued moist flow should result in stratus
development across much of the region late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Low MVFR ceilings appear likely, with some potential for
IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  68  86  69 /  40  40  10  10
Hutchinson      80  68  87  66 /  40  50  10  10
Newton          79  68  86  68 /  50  40  10  20
ElDorado        79  67  85  69 /  60  30  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   81  68  86  70 /  20  40  10  20
Russell         80  66  87  62 /  60  60  10  10
Great Bend      81  67  88  61 /  40  60  10  10
Salina          80  67  87  67 /  70  50  20  20
McPherson       80  68  86  66 /  50  50  10  10
Coffeyville     80  69  83  72 /  30  30  30  20
Chanute         80  68  82  72 /  50  30  30  30
Iola            80  68  82  72 /  60  30  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    79  68  83  72 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC




000
FXUS63 KICT 241151
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
651 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Forecast Highlight:
Sever thunderstorm potential increasing for much of South-Central
KS along & W of I-35/I-135 late this afternoon & Evening.

Today & Tonight:
Numerous strong & severe thunderstorms continue to occur across Nrn
KS in pronounced E/W-oriented convergent axis no doubt enhanced by
moisture-rich low-level jet/convective outflow interaction. Still
expect convection to s-l-o-w-l-y wane this morning as low-level jet
weakens. Attention shifts to this afternoon & evening, most notably
South-Central KS along & W of I-35/I-135. A mid-level shortwave is
still expected to strengthen considerably as it lifts ne from Ern
NM across the TX Panhandle this afternoon and reaching SW KS early
this evening. With high octane fuel continuing to stream N across
KS & the approaching shortwave inducing pronounced deep shear, both
speed & directional (more so directional) severe thunderstorms are
scheduled to develop from Ern parts of the TX & OK Panhandles to SW
& SC KS late this afternoon & evening. SPC has assigned an enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas which clearly makes
sense. CAPES are extremely high & although the GFS may be getting a
a CAPE adrenaline rush by projecting MLCAPES venturing into 5000
to 6000J/KG country there`s no doubt the airmass will be VERY
unstable. This warrants a "Severe Thunderstorms with Large Hail
and Damaging Wind" assignment to SC KS along & W of I-35/I-135.
There`s also an increasing potential for a few tornadoes for these
areas during these periods. Stay tuned.

Wed-Thu Night:
The afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave will shear as it sprints NE
toward, then across, the Mid-MS Valley Wed Afternoon & Evening, but
a 2nd & stronger mid-upper shortwave is scheduled to surge SE from
the Nrn Rockies. This character will likely induce mid-level
cyclogenesis over AZ & NM Wed Night. As the strong mid-upper wave
pushes ENE toward the Front Range deep-scale ascent will increase
& also find rich moisture with which to interact. As such more
severe thunderstorms are very possible for the latter parts of the
work-week. Wed & Wed Night appear most volatile for SE KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

With mid-range models in better agreement the inherited forecast
has been kept intact.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Expect MVFR CIGS for most locations this morning as low-mid level
moisture remains high. A cluster of storms currently over Central KS
near the KRSL and KSLN tafs will slowly move E-SE during the morning
hours.  So will go with a tempo group for the KSLN TAF for this
chance. Also a little further to the south-southeast, an outflow
boundary continues to drop south into South Central KS. This outflow
will shift winds around to the E-NE for the KHUT, and KICT TAFS for
a few hours this morning. As the outflow moves south, lift created
by the outflow may lead to the redevelopment of additional SHRA/TSRA
for the KICT, KHUT and KCNU TAFs.  So will keep a VCTS in for this
chance for the morning hours.

Attention will then shift to the late afternoon/evening hours, as a
dryline is expected to be just west of KGBD and KRSL. Severe TSRA is
expected to develop along this boundary just to the west of KGBD and
KRSL by this evening. Could also see some of the TSRA move NE and
possibly reach KHUT as well, so will include the mention of VCTS for
KGBD, KRSL and KHUT for the evening hours.  Not as confident in TSRA
but will go ahead and go with a VCTs for KICT as well.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  68  86  69 /  60  60  10  10
Hutchinson      83  68  87  66 /  50  60  10  10
Newton          82  68  86  68 /  60  60  10  20
ElDorado        81  67  85  69 /  60  60  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   81  68  86  70 /  60  60  10  20
Russell         83  66  87  62 /  60  50  10  10
Great Bend      84  67  88  61 /  50  50  10  10
Salina          82  67  87  67 /  60  60  20  20
McPherson       82  68  86  66 /  50  60  10  10
Coffeyville     80  69  83  72 /  60  40  30  20
Chanute         81  68  82  72 /  60  40  30  30
Iola            81  68  82  72 /  60  40  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    81  68  83  72 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...Ketcham




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240918
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
418 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

There is a lot of uncertainty in the mesoscale details of the
forecast today. The big convective cluster that has been nearly
stationary since midnight in northern Kansas still had not
developed enough of a cold pool to organize into a forward
propagating MCS as of 09Z. Most of the short term convective
allowing models suggest that the cluster will begin propagating
southeast during the early morning hours with outflow spreading
back west of Dodge City by late morning. A subtle upper level
trough that appears in WV imagery in central New Mexico should
propagate into western Kansas by early afternoon. A surface
cyclone in southeast Colorado should remain nearly stationary, and
the models suggest that a dryline will mix east into southwest
Kansas and may reach a line from Garden City to Liberal by mid
afternoon. A subsynoptic cyclone likely will exist near the
intersection of the old outflow boundary with the dryline
somewhere near Dodge City late this afternoon. Extremely moist air
will continue to flow into western Kansas, and the mid level warm
pool will keep convection from firing until late afternoon.
Convergence along the old outflow boundary and the dryline with
afternoon heating and some marginal upper level divergence with
the weak upper level trough should be sufficient to initiate
thunderstorms. Although high level flow is not terribly strong,
30-35 knot shear from surface to 6 km should support rotating
updrafts. As such, a few supercells are likely late this afternoon
before the thunderstorms organize upscale into a MCS that will
propagate across southern Kansas during the evening hours. A
tornado is possible where low level shear is maximized near the
intersection of the outflow boundary and the dryline.

The vigorous upper level trough evident on satellite imagery over
California early this morning should eject rapidly northeast as
the next trough rotating around the gyre in the western United
States drops southeast from near 40N/130W into southern California
by Wednesday morning. The trough currently over California should
reach the Dakotas by Wednesday morning, and falling pressures in
the northern Plains will veer the low level flow in western Kansas
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The deep moisture should be scoured
out of western Kansas on Wednesday, and temperatures likely will
warm to near 90 with H8 temperatures in the mid 20C range. The
potential for thunderstorms Wednesday is minimal.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

An active flow regime will continue with a mean long wave trough
in the western United States and ridging in the eastern part of
the country through early June. Minor waves will continue to
ripple through the southwest flow aloft and provide opportunities
for thunderstorm development nearly every day. The upper level
cyclone that digs into California Wednesday will move into eastern
Colorado by Friday morning. Surface cyclogenesis will occur in
eastern Colorado Thursday afternoon, and low level moisture should
surge back into southwest Kansas by Thursday afternoon. Another
round of thunderstorms is likely Thursday afternoon near and east
of the dryline position and near a weak stationary front across
northern Kansas. A Pacific cold front will move into western
Kansas Friday, and additional thunderstorm development can be
expected under the cold pool with the upper level cyclone.
Saturday probably will be quiet, but another minor wave in the
southwest flow will approach the Central Plains on Sunday. Yet
another minor wave should approach Kansas Monday afternoon.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages with highs in the
80s and lows in the 50s and lower 60s through the week. There is
little indication that a strong subtropical high will build into
the Plains through at least mid June, although there may be a
brief period of anticyclogenesis in the central part of the
country around 9-11 June. An active flow regime characterized by a
mean trough in the western United States and ridging in the
eastern part of the country appears to be the base state of the
atmosphere for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A weak stationary front extending from eastern Nebraska across
northwest Kansas into a surface low in eastern Colorado will move
little today. A cluster of thunderstorms at the nose of the low
level jet in northern Kansas will propagate to the east-southeast
and should be east of HYS by 11Z. Patchy stratus with bases
010-020 will become widespread by 09z and persist through the
early morning hours. Visibilities may be restricted to 3-5SM in
mist around sunrise. The stratus should erode during the morning
hours to sct to bkn030-040 by 18Z. Low level winds generally will
be from the south-southeast at 15-20 kts but will be variable and
gusty near the thunderstorm cluster in northern Kansas.

A dryline will mix east to near DDC this afternoon, and severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop near DDC around 21Z and spread
east into central Kansas during the evening hours. Low level winds
will veer above the surface Tuesday night, and Tuesday night may
be free of stratus.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  61  89  56 /  50  50  10   0
GCK  85  58  89  53 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  88  55  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  88  56  91  54 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  80  62  88  57 /  50  30  10  10
P28  84  65  91  66 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Ruthi
AVIATION...Ruthi




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240623
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
123 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Dependent on the time frame for air mass recovery from yesterday`s
convection across the high plains southward into the panhandle of
Texas, thunderstorms will be possible across central and portions of
southwest Kansas tonight into Tuesday as short range models
indicate a difluent southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Central Plains. The RAP13 and HRRR initialize well with the
surface low in extreme southwest Kansas and an attendant frontal
boundary extending northeast into north central Kansas and showing
both lifting northward across western Kansas through this evening.
A southeasterly upslope flow will redevelop across central and
much of southwest Kansas as a result, and in turn, draw moisture
back to the north raising surface dewpoints up into the lower and
mid 60s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas. Heating of
the lower/mid levels will increase this afternoon as the
prevailing lower cloud deck continues to slowly scatter out,
allowing lower/mid level lapse rates to steepen. Depending on how
long this takes, thunderstorms will be possible toward early evening
as the cap weakens with the best chance for convection associated
with the frontal boundary as it lifts north. Short fuse model
soundings show SBCAPE values climbing in excess of 4000 J/KG
across south central and eastern southwest Kansas through early
this evening, increasing severe potential. Based on the
substantially high amount of CAPE, large hail will be the primary
threat with damaging winds also possible. Due to a modest amount
of vertical shear present, an isolated tornado threat closer to
the Oklahoma border does exist.

A few isolated storms may develop across eastern Colorado within
an upslope flow and move into west central Kansas later tonight
as an H5 vort maxima kicks northeast out of the Southern Rockies
into the Western High Plains. However, with less instability
available, the potential for severe storms will be limited with
damaging winds the main threat.

A prevailing low level south to southeasterly flow across western
Kansas tonight will help reinforce a moisture pool across the
area with surface dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s(F) to the
mid 60s(F). Look for lows generally in the 60s(F) toward daybreak
Tuesday with a few upper 50s(F) possible in west central Kansas.
For Tuesday, warm air advection across the high plains will push
H85 temperatures well up into the mid to upper 20s(C) across
southwest and much of central Kansas. Widespread 80s(F) can be
expected for highs Tuesday afternoon with near 90F possible in
extreme southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible across central and portions of
southwest Kansas Tuesday evening as medium range models show
another in a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the
Southern Rockies into the high plains of western Kansas. Although
the flow aloft will remain fairly weak, considerable moisture and
instability will be present to support thunderstorm development
along and ahead of a dryline projected to extend southward
across southwest Kansas off of an advancing surface low out of
eastern Colorado. Significant instability will heighten the
potential for severe storms, particularly across central Kansas.
The focus for precip shifts eastward Wednesday as drier air lifts
northeast into southwest Kansas behind a dryline expected to
push a little eastward across the area.

Prevailing southerlies near the surface will reinforce the
warmer air mass across the high plains Wednesday and Thursday.
Highs mainly up into the 80s(F) can be expected each day with a
few lower 90s(F) possible in some locations. Cooler temperatures
are expected by Friday with a cold front pushing through western
Kansas toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

A weak stationary front extending from eastern Nebraska across
northwest Kansas into a surface low in eastern Colorado will move
little today. A cluster of thunderstorms at the nose of the low
level jet in northern Kansas will propagate to the east-southeast
and should be east of HYS by 11Z. Patchy stratus with bases
010-020 will become widespread by 09z and persist through the
early morning hours. Visibilities may be restricted to 3-5SM in
mist around sunrise. The stratus should erode during the morning
hours to sct to bkn030-040 by 18Z. Low level winds generally will
be from the south-southeast at 15-20 kts but will be variable and
gusty near the thunderstorm cluster in northern Kansas.

A dryline will mix east to near DDC this afternoon, and severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop near DDC around 21Z and spread
east into central Kansas during the evening hours. Low level winds
will veer above the surface Tuesday night, and Tuesday night may
be free of stratus.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  87  64  89 /  30  20  20  10
GCK  58  87  60  89 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  58  90  57  88 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  62  90  62  91 /  20  10  10   0
HYS  60  84  63  88 /  40  20  20  10
P28  67  86  67  91 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Ruthi




000
FXUS63 KTOP 240511
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1211 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

20Z water vapor imagery continues to show a mean trough over the
western U.S. with southwest flow persisting over the central plains.
A MCV is seen in the water vapor and profiler data near the KS/MO
state line and continues to slowly drift east. At the surface, an
area of low pressure was analyzed over the OK panhandle with an
inverted trough of low pressure extending through eastern NEB. Low
level trajectories remain favorable for low level moisture advection
north.

For tonight, the main question is where will the next round of
convection develop and where will the resulting MCS and/or MCV
track. High resolution models vary from storms over central NEB to
southwest KS. Overall, think convergence along the inverted trough
axis to the northwest of the forecast area should be the main focus
for redevelopment as low level moisture continues to advect north.
However given the uncertainty of where storms may track overnight,
the forecast only has POPs at 50 percent for the overnight hours and
into Tuesday morning. I think it may play out similar to today where
storms to the west generate an MCV and that causes showers and
storms to fester over the area for a good portion of the day.
Although there is low confidence in the location of the showers and
storms. Deep layer shear is progged to be somewhat better tonight
and Tuesday. So there should be a little better potential for severe
storms. If the MCS is able to form a good cold pool, There could be
strong winds and hail with the storms overnight. Lows tonight should
again be in the lower to mid 60s due to cloud cover and the moist
airmass remaining over the region. Highs Tuesday of around 80
degrees are based on mixing the boundary layer to around 875MB with
some insolation. This may be overdone though if an area of clouds and
precip linger for a long time over any location.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Thunderstorm chances will continue to be the main concern through
the extended forecast. Initial concern will be convective chances
Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Depending on the duration of any
thunderstorms during the day Tuesday and any mesoscale boundary
could focus convection in the evening if convergence is strong
enough. Otherwise convection firing off of the dryline in western
Kansas may move into parts of north central Kansas overnight into
early Wednesday morning as the low level jet veers across northeast
Kansas. Models show capping inversion across the area through the
day on Wednesday and most of the day may remain dry after initial
morning convection ends. Dryline is forecast to remain to the west
of the forecast area in the afternoon. The models hint at a weak
wave moving northeast out of Colorado in the late afternoon and may
help initiate storms in northwest and parts of north central Kansas.
Shear is favorable across north central Kansas for supercells where
0-6km shear of 45 to 50 kts is forecast along with an unstable
airmass. Additional energy may move out across western and central
Kansas Wednesday night, this along with convergence across southern
Nebraska and northern Kansas around 850 mb may also cause showers
and thunderstorms to train along the border overnight Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. On Thursday and Thursday night a more potent
upper level trough will move northeast across western and central
Kansas and should fire storms along the dryline that is forecast to
be just west of our CWA. Again shear and instability coupled along
with good forcing for ascent will likely lead to severe storms
across parts of north central and northeast Kansas. The dryline and
frontal boundary looks to remain just to the west of the forecast
area through Saturday before retreating westward on Sunday. This
will act as a focus each day for storms as weaker waves move out of
the western trough and out into the Plains. Shear is weaker over the
weekend and into next Monday across central and eastern Kansas and
there may be a few stronger storms across the area. Temperatures
through the period will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s with lows
mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

MVFR cloud on the increase from the south and will be impacting
the terminals in the next few hours. Will be monitoring convective
trends but still appears a window around 11-14Z will be the main
window of potential.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KGLD 240445
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1045 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the
forecast area from Hill City to Gove. It may back up slightly this
afternoon and be the focus for isolated thunderstorm development
with the upper forcing still lagging over the central Rockies. If
a storm does develop...the environment will be conducive for
supercells with strong instability of up to 4000 j/kg and deep
layer shear of around 50kts. The aforementioned shortwave trough
will move out of northeast Colorado this evening and across the
northern tier of counties overnight. Point soundings show up to
2000 j/kg of elevated CAPE with little CIN in areas north of
Interstate 70 between 06z and 12z. High res model guidance shows
widespread qpf in that area. These slightly elevated thunderstorms
will be capable of producing large hail. In addition to the
thunderstorm threat...low level moisture will increase with light
southeasterly winds with areas of fog and low clouds likely
developing. Visibility could drop to less than a mile at times in
patchy dense fog which may linger through the mid morning hours.

The set up for Tuesday afternoon has strong to extreme
instability developing along and north of a Flagler to Tribune
line...most of the forecast area. Deep layer shear will be
slightly lower compared to today, around 40kts, but will be more
than sufficient for supercells. Problem as it has been the last
few days will be relatively weak upper forcing. Most likely
scenario will see isolated to widely scattered storms develop in
the mid to late afternoon hours in northeast Colorado as the next
shortwave emerges onto the plains and begins to move eastward into
the instability axis. Confidence is rather low due to the weak
synoptic scale forcing on the potential for anything more than an
isolated severe threat through Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Going into the extended period...the Tri State region will sit
between a broad h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the
country...with a digging slow moving upper trough building over the
rockies/western half of the country.

With this setup...Tuesday night on thru Wednesday will initially
have a few weak shortwaves move out over the plains region...moving
northeast along the western side of the blocking h5 ridge. Best
lift/dynamics ahead of these shortwaves will put best chances for
precipitation mainly north of Interstate 70...especially in sw
Nebraska.

By midweek...meandering surface boundary sets up in the Central
Plains out ahead of upper trough over the rockies. Models shift this
system eastward late Thursday and over the region thru Friday night
before lifting into north central Nebraska. Remnants of this
boundary do remain heading into the upcoming holiday weekend as
another upper low moves thru the north central rockies. For
precip...do expect an increase in areal coverage of rw/trw potential
as upper trough shifts eastward over the region...giving way to wrap-
around moisture going into the weekend. This moisture will be
enhanced by boundary remnants allowing for continuation of trw for
the weekend.

For temps...with a general sw upper flow over the region...looking
for near to above normal numbers thru the week as decent waa over
the area will only be hampered by extent of cloud cover/precip.
Overall...daytime highs will range from the mid 70s thru the mid
80s. coolest period will coincide with the passage of the midweek
upper trough. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s thru the
mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

For KGLD...mvfr cigs expected at or very near taf issuance as
stratus moves in from the southeast with surface winds from the
east near 10kts. sfc based thunderstorms expected around the
terminal as well. Thunderstorm chances decrease around 09z with
stratus and vlifr cigs and/or vis expected through about 17z.
models differ on how fast the stratus lifts north with the nam the
slower and gfs more progressive. Trended toward previous forecast
then favored the gfs which would bring vfr conditions to the
terminal after 21z as winds veer to the southeast near 10kts.

For KMCK...vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through 07z
or so with winds from the east around 5kts. from 08z-11z
thunderstorms possible from the south and west before dissipating
and/or moving northeast away from the terminal. Cigs will lower to
vlifr category. From 12z-18z am expecting vlifr cigs and possibly
vis. From 19z-21z cigs expected to slowly rise to mvfr category
then vfr from 22z through the rest of the taf period with winds
from the east-southeast around 11kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KTOP 232346
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

20Z water vapor imagery continues to show a mean trough over the
western U.S. with southwest flow persisting over the central plains.
A MCV is seen in the water vapor and profiler data near the KS/MO
state line and continues to slowly drift east. At the surface, an
area of low pressure was analyzed over the OK panhandle with an
inverted trough of low pressure extending through eastern NEB. Low
level trajectories remain favorable for low level moisture advection
north.

For tonight, the main question is where will the next round of
convection develop and where will the resulting MCS and/or MCV
track. High resolution models vary from storms over central NEB to
southwest KS. Overall, think convergence along the inverted trough
axis to the northwest of the forecast area should be the main focus
for redevelopment as low level moisture continues to advect north.
However given the uncertainty of where storms may track overnight,
the forecast only has POPs at 50 percent for the overnight hours and
into Tuesday morning. I think it may play out similar to today where
storms to the west generate an MCV and that causes showers and
storms to fester over the area for a good portion of the day.
Although there is low confidence in the location of the showers and
storms. Deep layer shear is progged to be somewhat better tonight
and Tuesday. So there should be a little better potential for severe
storms. If the MCS is able to form a good cold pool, There could be
strong winds and hail with the storms overnight. Lows tonight should
again be in the lower to mid 60s due to cloud cover and the moist
airmass remaining over the region. Highs Tuesday of around 80
degrees are based on mixing the boundary layer to around 875MB with
some insolation. This may be overdone though if an area of clouds and
precip linger for a long time over any location.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Thunderstorm chances will continue to be the main concern through
the extended forecast. Initial concern will be convective chances
Tuesday evening and Tuesday night. Depending on the duration of any
thunderstorms during the day Tuesday and any mesoscale boundary
could focus convection in the evening if convergence is strong
enough. Otherwise convection firing off of the dryline in western
Kansas may move into parts of north central Kansas overnight into
early Wednesday morning as the low level jet veers across northeast
Kansas. Models show capping inversion across the area through the
day on Wednesday and most of the day may remain dry after initial
morning convection ends. Dryline is forecast to remain to the west
of the forecast area in the afternoon. The models hint at a weak
wave moving northeast out of Colorado in the late afternoon and may
help initiate storms in northwest and parts of north central Kansas.
Shear is favorable across north central Kansas for supercells where
0-6km shear of 45 to 50 kts is forecast along with an unstable
airmass. Additional energy may move out across western and central
Kansas Wednesday night, this along with convergence across southern
Nebraska and northern Kansas around 850 mb may also cause showers
and thunderstorms to train along the border overnight Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. On Thursday and Thursday night a more potent
upper level trough will move northeast across western and central
Kansas and should fire storms along the dryline that is forecast to
be just west of our CWA. Again shear and instability coupled along
with good forcing for ascent will likely lead to severe storms
across parts of north central and northeast Kansas. The dryline and
frontal boundary looks to remain just to the west of the forecast
area through Saturday before retreating westward on Sunday. This
will act as a focus each day for storms as weaker waves move out of
the western trough and out into the Plains. Shear is weaker over the
weekend and into next Monday across central and eastern Kansas and
there may be a few stronger storms across the area. Temperatures
through the period will remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s with lows
mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

VFR conditions should persist for the next several hours but
chances for limitations in clouds and/or precip seem to be
increasing for the 06Z-18Z window. Models showing some
consistency in cumulus field in west central Kansas developing
into convective cluster that moves east with time, aided by a
possible weak wave moving out of Colorado. Have gone ahead with
prevailing SHRA in most likely time of passage of this MCS.
Forecast soundings are also similar in rather moist lower levels
during this period bringing some potential for MVFR cigs in a
similar window.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KGLD 232335
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
535 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Cold front has stalled along the southeastern fringes of the
forecast area from Hill City to Gove. It may back up slightly this
afternoon and be the focus for isolated thunderstorm development
with the upper forcing still lagging over the central Rockies. If
a storm does develop...the environment will be conducive for
supercells with strong instability of up to 4000 j/kg and deep
layer shear of around 50kts. The aforementioned shortwave trough
will move out of northeast Colorado this evening and across the
northern tier of counties overnight. Point soundings show up to
2000 j/kg of elevated CAPE with little CIN in areas north of
Interstate 70 between 06z and 12z. High res model guidance shows
widespread qpf in that area. These slightly elevated thunderstorms
will be capable of producing large hail. In addition to the
thunderstorm threat...low level moisture will increase with light
southeasterly winds with areas of fog and low clouds likely
developing. Visibility could drop to less than a mile at times in
patchy dense fog which may linger through the mid morning hours.

The set up for Tuesday afternoon has strong to extreme
instability developing along and north of a Flagler to Tribune
line...most of the forecast area. Deep layer shear will be
slightly lower compared to today, around 40kts, but will be more
than sufficient for supercells. Problem as it has been the last
few days will be relatively weak upper forcing. Most likely
scenario will see isolated to widely scattered storms develop in
the mid to late afternoon hours in northeast Colorado as the next
shortwave emerges onto the plains and begins to move eastward into
the instability axis. Confidence is rather low due to the weak
synoptic scale forcing on the potential for anything more than an
isolated severe threat through Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Going into the extended period...the Tri State region will sit
between a broad h5 ridge over the eastern portion of the
country...with a digging slow moving upper trough building over the
rockies/western half of the country.

With this setup...Tuesday night on thru Wednesday will initially
have a few weak shortwaves move out over the plains region...moving
northeast along the western side of the blocking h5 ridge. Best
lift/dynamics ahead of these shortwaves will put best chances for
precipitation mainly north of Interstate 70...especially in sw
Nebraska.

By midweek...meandering surface boundary sets up in the Central
Plains out ahead of upper trough over the rockies. Models shift this
system eastward late Thursday and over the region thru Friday night
before lifting into north central Nebraska. Remnants of this
boundary do remain heading into the upcoming holiday weekend as
another upper low moves thru the north central rockies. For
precip...do expect an increase in areal coverage of rw/trw potential
as upper trough shifts eastward over the region...giving way to wrap-
around moisture going into the weekend. This moisture will be
enhanced by boundary remnants allowing for continuation of trw for
the weekend.

For temps...with a general sw upper flow over the region...looking
for near to above normal numbers thru the week as decent waa over
the area will only be hampered by extent of cloud cover/precip.
Overall...daytime highs will range from the mid 70s thru the mid
80s. coolest period will coincide with the passage of the midweek
upper trough. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s thru the
mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

For KGLD and KMCK...vfr conditions expected through approximately
09z or so with winds from the east and/or southeast 5-10kts. Could
see a thunderstorm or two near or over the terminals a bit later
this evening through the overnight but confidence not high enough
to include in the forecast. Updates will be sent when confidence
increases. After 09z or so stratus and ifr/vlifr cigs and possibly
visibility move in from the east-southeast and continue through at
least mid to late morning. During the mid to late afternoon hours
the stratus should slowly decrease from southwest to northeast
allowing vfr to mvfr cigs to develop with visibilities unlimited.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 231830
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
130 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Dependent on the time frame for air mass recovery from yesterday`s
convection across the high plains southward into the panhandle of
Texas, thunderstorms will be possible across central and portions of
southwest Kansas tonight into Tuesday as short range models
indicate a difluent southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Central Plains. The RAP13 and HRRR initialize well with the
surface low in extreme southwest Kansas and an attendant frontal
boundary extending northeast into north central Kansas and showing
both lifting northward across western Kansas through this evening.
A southeasterly upslope flow will redevelop across central and
much of southwest Kansas as a result, and in turn, draw moisture
back to the north raising surface dewpoints up into the lower and
mid 60s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas. Heating of
the lower/mid levels will increase this afternoon as the
prevailing lower cloud deck continues to slowly scatter out,
allowing lower/mid level lapse rates to steepen. Depending on how
long this takes, thunderstorms will be possible toward early evening
as the cap weakens with the best chance for convection associated
with the frontal boundary as it lifts north. Short fuse model
soundings show SBCAPE values climbing in excess of 4000 J/KG
across south central and eastern southwest Kansas through early
this evening, increasing severe potential. Based on the
substantially high amount of CAPE, large hail will be the primary
threat with damaging winds also possible. Due to a modest amount
of vertical shear present, an isolated tornado threat closer to
the Oklahoma border does exist.

A few isolated storms may develop across eastern Colorado within
an upslope flow and move into west central Kansas later tonight
as an H5 vort maxima kicks northeast out of the Southern Rockies
into the Western High Plains. However, with less instability
available, the potential for severe storms will be limited with
damaging winds the main threat.

A prevailing low level south to southeasterly flow across western
Kansas tonight will help reinforce a moisture pool across the
area with surface dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s(F) to the
mid 60s(F). Look for lows generally in the 60s(F) toward daybreak
Tuesday with a few upper 50s(F) possible in west central Kansas.
For Tuesday, warm air advection across the high plains will push
H85 temperatures well up into the mid to upper 20s(C) across
southwest and much of central Kansas. Widespread 80s(F) can be
expected for highs Tuesday afternoon with near 90F possible in
extreme southwest Kansas. Similar high temperatures are likely
Wednesday and Thursday with little change to the general air mass
across the high plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Little changes in the overall synoptic pattern in the coming days.
The models have been consistent will keeping Wednesday the likeliest
day to be dry and quite (no convection at least), however the rest
of the forecast looks fairly active with at least peak heating
dryline storms and waves exiting the the quasi-stationary western
upper trough. The warming trend will continue into mid week with
90s almost a certainty by wednesday. More clouds and precipitationmay
cool temperatures by late week with models showing a strong
shortwave into the plains. Overnight lows remain somewhat mild in
the mid to upper 50s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are then expected to develop and move
northeast across central and portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting KHYS with brief periods of MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. There is less confidence of KDDC or even KGCK being
affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue
through early Tuesday morning. Winds will remain light and variable
through this evening as a near stalled out frontal boundary situated
across north central into southwest Kansas begins to lift slowly
north. East to southeast winds around 5 to 15kt are expected to
develop later this evening as the frontal boundary lifts further
north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  63  87  64 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  81  58  87  60 /  20  20  10  10
EHA  84  58  90  57 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  84  62  90  62 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  78  62  84  63 /  30  40  20  20
P28  79  67  86  67 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231738
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1138 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TODAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH THE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWS GOOD LIFT.  A DRYLINE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FA. CAPE IS HIGHEST OVER THAT PART OF THE FA AND SHEAR IS
AROUND 50 KTS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA BUT CAPE IS
LOWER.

SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FA TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS.  THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CAPE AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.

SIMILAR TIMING OCCURS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE
is ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHEAR OF
45KTS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S TODAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S ARE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Thursday the main energy moves out from the Central and Southern
Rockies providing stronger synoptic scale forcing for thunderstorms.
Wraparound precipitation will continue into Friday with the slow
moving upper level system. Over the weekend models continue to be
quite wet as they show more zonal flow orientation with embedded
shortwave troughs and copious low level moisture available. This may
increase the severe potential over the weekend, depending on how the
instability axis sets up. Temperatures will be near to slightly
above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through this afternoon.
TONIGHT...expecting scattered thunderstorms to develop after
midnight as well as areas of fog and low clouds. Thunderstorms
will be slightly elevated and capable of producing large hail.
KMCK will see the best chance of a thunderstorm with most staying
north of KGLD. Fog and low clouds will lift out around mid morning
on Tuesday.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KDDC 231727
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1227 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 932 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an elongated upper level trough
set up across the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, an embedded
shortwave within the broader scale trough is digging southeast
along the Pacific Coast of northern California. Near the surface,
a weak frontal boundary extending from north central Kansas
southwestward into southwest Kansas, is advancing slowly east-
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A cold front is advancing across central NE into northern KS, which
will reach the central sections of our forecast area mid morning.
Not seeing significant indications any instability will be realized
once this front arrives in our area, and by late morning, the
surface winds begin to veer and remain light northeasterly until
late day.

The main convective threat will be supercells either initiating or
moving north out of Oklahoma focused within the main higher
moisture/surface dew point axis ahead of the surface dryline.
However this may become complicated by the true southward extent of
the aforementioned cold front position.  Another area of interest
will be behind the washed out cold front in the increasingly
easterly upslope surface flow along the KS/CO line where the NAM is
insistent on isolated supercell development with potential for giant
hail, and much less of a tornado threat. Threat ares may need to be
adjusted later today as the convective models refine the best
locations for initiation. Still, low to upper 80s look agreed upon
by numerical models for this aftenroon`s highs

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Little changes in the overall synoptic pattern in the coming days.
The models have been consistent will keeping Wednesday the likeliest
day to be dry and quite (no convection at least), however the rest
of the forecast looks fairly active with at least peak heating
dryline storms and waves exiting the the quasi-stationary western
upper trough. The warming trend will continue into mid week with
90s almost a certainty by wednesday. More clouds and precipitationmay
cool temperatures by late week with models showing a strong
shortwave into the plains. Overnight lows remain somewhat mild in
the mid to upper 50s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are then expected to develop and move
northeast across central and portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting KHYS with brief periods of MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys. There is less confidence of KDDC or even KGCK being
affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue
through early Tuesday morning. Winds will remain light and variable
through this evening as a near stalled out frontal boundary situated
across north central into southwest Kansas begins to lift slowly
north. East to southeast winds around 5 to 15kt are expected to
develop later this evening as the frontal boundary lifts further
north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  60  87  61 /  30  30  20  20
GCK  81  55  87  57 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  84  52  88  55 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  84  56  90  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  78  61  84  63 /  30  30  20  20
P28  79  65  86  67 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KTOP 231725
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1225 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

At 3 AM on Monday, a complex of thunderstorms was pushing east
across Nebraska with the southern flank and associated outflow
boundary extending into northern KS. This outflow seems to be pretty
shallow on the southern flank but is intersecting the low level jet
to create rather strong low level convergence. North central KS has
around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE according to SPC mesoanalysis but RAP
forecast soundings indicate that those MU parcels rooted near or
just above the surface are being suppressed at the moment by a
capping inversion around 6000 feet. However, over the next few
hours, a weak short wave and associated upper cooling/height falls
will influence the region and all expectations are for this cap to
erode with a focus for thunderstorm development in north central KS
between 10Z and 12Z...and gradually shifting east into less unstable
air over eastern KS through the day. Effective shear is quite weak
this morning, and while a few severe storms are not out of the
question this AM, they would probably be limited to areas west of
HWY 77 in the first 1-3 hours of convective development...and see a
better chance for this activity to remain sub-severe with a further
weakening trend with eastward progression.

The morning/early afternoon convective overturning should do a
pretty good job of keeping much of the area stable through the day
and into the afternoon. However, expect at least some recharge into
north central KS by late afternoon where most guidance suggests a
band of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop with limited inhibition
by late afternoon. Deep layer shear will also improve slightly in
this area with 30-40 kts of 0-6 shear. Do expect thunderstorm
development in this region between 4-7 PM, but unsure at this time
how far east the development will occur and it will depend on the
evolution of early day convection. For now, see at least some
conditional severe potential, again mainly focused west of an
Abilene to Manhattan to Marysville line.

Any diurnally driven afternoon storms will weaken by mid evening,
but see potential for another round of overnight storms probably
after 2 AM as the LLJ intensifies and focuses convergence into
central and northern KS. Unsure just how this will evolve, but given
very steep lapse rates and instability rooted just off the surface,
see a situation for which a forward propagating MCS could develop
with some associated wind and hail potential during the early
morning hours.  Obviously there is plenty of uncertainty throughout
this forecast, with each round of storms and its outflow having an
effect on subsequent storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

The region looks to remain under an active weather pattern this week
and even through next weekend, with chances for showers and
thunderstorms essentially every day.  Models continue to show the
surface and mid-level features remaining fairly persistent through
the entire extended forecast period, noted by steady southwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow that will contribute to ongoing
warm-air advection and moisture advection into the region. These
advection features will help to support sufficient instability
essentially every day this week.  While model soundings show a cap
developing almost daily, these caps appear to be weak enough to be
easily broken most days, thus supporting the development of surface-
based storms.

On Tuesday, an early morning MCS may be progressing eastward across
the CWA through the morning and cannot rule out a few isolated
strong storms embedded within this morning activity.  Precipitation
may clear out during the afternoon with several models suggesting
the development of additional storms late afternoon/early evening
across north central Kansas in the vicinity of the stationary
boundary. This additional thunderstorm development may also be
enhanced by an embedded mid-level shortwave near this boundary. If
storms are able to develop, they would likely advance into north
central Kansas during the evening hours and continue to spread
eastward overnight.  These storms should be moving out of eastern
Kansas Wednesday morning. Some model soundings suggest that a
slightly stronger cap may build in on Wednesday, however some models
have also been consistently showing a bulge in the dewpoints
possibly extending into central Kansas, which would likely be enough
to help break the cap and thus support strong to severe
thunderstorms once again late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thursday is increasingly looking like the best day for potential
severe thunderstorm development across the CWA.  There may not be
much in the way of morning convection, with model soundings showing
the cap quickly weakening through the afternoon hours as the dryline
advances into central Kansas.  Models are in good agreement with the
stationary boundary becoming more southwest-to-northeast oriented,
extending into north central and possibly even northeast Kansas
during the day. Models continue to show sufficient instability in
place, and it`s worth noting that the 0-6km bulk shear values have
increased in the 00z model runs to upwards of 40-50+kts by late
Thursday afternoon/early evening, especially across north central
and far northern Kansas.  With these conditions in place, there is
increasing concern for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening.  The stationary boundary will likely continue to linger
across north central Kansas Friday through the weekend, which will
help to support ongoing thunderstorm chances across the outlook
area.  While some strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible,
shear values look to diminish some into the weekend.

Here`s the bottom line: some strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible across the outlook area every day this week, with all
severe threats possible: large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a
few tornadoes. Additionally, since several rounds of storms are
possible, there will be an increasing concern for flooding through
the week, especially if storms end up tracking over a particular
location from day to day.  There are still plenty of uncertainties
in the exact details of thunderstorm potential each day due to small
scale features such as potential lingering outflow boundaries.

As for temperatures, conditions will remain fairly steady through
the week and into the weekend with highs ranging from the upper 70s
to upper 80s and low temperatures staying in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected to continue into the overnight hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward out the
Topeka terminals near 20Z. The big question mark through the
period is the development of an MCS across the area. Currently
have VCTS and MVFR cigs mentioned at MHK beginning at 09Z and 10Z
at the Topeka terminals. Later outlooks will continue to refine
timing of possible thunderstorms overnight.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Baerg




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