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000
FXUS63 KICT 252108
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER WAVE THAT DOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS
SPINNING OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS KEPT CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER. IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEEN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM...WITH POSSIBLY RECORD
HEAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. BY MONDAY AND EVEN TUESDAY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN WITH DURING THE DAY. THE WESTERLY WINDS AND FULL SUN
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE TO EVEN LIKELY. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S WHICH WILL BE NEAR TO EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM INTO THE 60S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
FROM WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE STUNTED...BACK TO NEAR NORMALS FOR
LATE JANUARY...IN THE 40S.

AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST...MULTIPLE RIPPLES
WILL MOVE ACROSS AS WE SIT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AS ONE OF THE RIPPLES PUSHES A FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FEATURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AGAIN STAY NEARER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST. THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE
CROSSWIND ISSUES WITH LANDING AND TAKING OFF WITH THE NORTH AND
SOUTH RUNWAYS. THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER OUT THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL LOCATIONS AND BRING
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AOA VFR LIMITS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY...THOUGH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.

CWH

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  68  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29  69  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          29  67  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  67  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      31  71  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  68  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       29  68  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     29  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  62  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            28  61  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    27  63  32  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 252108
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE UPPER WAVE THAT DOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS
SPINNING OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS KEPT CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY
WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER. IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS
HAVE BEEN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM...WITH POSSIBLY RECORD
HEAT. WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. BY MONDAY AND EVEN TUESDAY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN WITH DURING THE DAY. THE WESTERLY WINDS AND FULL SUN
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE TO EVEN LIKELY. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S WHICH WILL BE NEAR TO EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

BY WEDNESDAY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM INTO THE 60S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
FROM WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE STUNTED...BACK TO NEAR NORMALS FOR
LATE JANUARY...IN THE 40S.

AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EAST...MULTIPLE RIPPLES
WILL MOVE ACROSS AS WE SIT IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AS ONE OF THE RIPPLES PUSHES A FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE FEATURE.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AGAIN STAY NEARER TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY/EARLY FEBRUARY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST. THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE
CROSSWIND ISSUES WITH LANDING AND TAKING OFF WITH THE NORTH AND
SOUTH RUNWAYS. THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER OUT THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL LOCATIONS AND BRING
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AOA VFR LIMITS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY...THOUGH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.

CWH

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  68  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      29  69  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          29  67  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  67  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  67  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      31  71  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  68  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       29  68  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     29  64  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         28  62  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            28  61  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    27  63  32  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS63 KTOP 252051
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the shortwave trough sliding across
Missouri this afternoon as it progressed toward the Ohio River
Valley. The associated surface low was situated over southern
Illinois with a tight pressure gradient extending into central and
eastern Kansas. As a result, north-northwesterly winds were gusting
upwards of 35-45mph through early this afternoon but will gradually
diminish through mid to late afternoon as the surface low and
associated pressure gradient shift further to the east. Expansive
cloud cover from this passing system provided good insolation today,
keeping conditions cooler as temperatures struggled to warm much
from this morning`s low temperatures. As a result, afternoon high
temperatures should only peak in the low/mid 40s and possibly into
the upper 40s near central Kansas.

These low clouds may be a bit slow to clear out overnight, so
trended a couple of degrees warmer for temperatures tonight with lows in
the upper 20s/low 30s.  A weak ridge of surface high pressure will
slide across the area tonight before another area of surface low
pressure and associated surface trough track southward into the area
by mid-day Monday. Only expect some scattered low/mid clouds from
this passing trough with winds veering from southwest to northwest
by the afternoon. A modest thermal ridge should set up over the High
Plains with decent downslope winds aiding in a return to well
above-normal temperatures. Expect high temperatures to reach into
the low to mid 60s from east to west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Monday Night though Tuesday Night...

An upper level ridge across the southwestern US will move across the
central and southern plains on Wednesday.

Monday Night through Tuesday, A surface ridge of high pressure
across eastern KS Tuesday night will shift east into MO by the
afternoon hours of Tuesday. Light easterly winds will gradually back
to the southeast through the day as the surface ridge axis moves
east into MO.

Stronger WAA at the surface and 850mb across western KS will shift
east across central KS during the afternoon hours. The southwest
counties of the CWA will warm into the upper 60s as deeper mixing
and 850mb temps increase to 14 deg C. The mixing will not be as
deep over the northeast counties of the CWA, thus highs will only
reach the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday, A weak upper level trough will
round the H5 ridge axis across the southern and central plains.
There may be enough ascent to see an increase in the high and mid
cloud cover during the day on Wednesday. A lee surface low will move
east across KS during the day. A weak cold front will move southeast
across north central KS during the afternoon hours. The warmest
temperatures will occur ahead of the surface cold front during the
afternoon hour across east central KS where highs should reach the
mid to upper 60s. The northern counties will only see highs in the
lower 60s as winds shift to the northwest.

Wednesday through Sunday...

Wednesday through Wednesday evening, a shortwave and associated
surface low will skim northern Kansas.  Models are still in
agreement that no precipitation will be seen with this weak frontal
passage, as the mid levels of the atmosphere remain too dry even
though there is weak lift present.  A north-south temperature
gradient will be in place Wednesday with highs ranging from the
lower 60s in the north, to mid/upper 60s in the southern portion of
our area.  As the shortwave passes through Wednesday night, winds
veer to the north allowing for cooler temperatures Thursday.

Models have come in slightly better agreement for the overall
pattern Friday evening into Saturday.  A cutoff low will develop
over Southern California, while NW flow will develop from Canada
streaming into the northern Plains.  Energy from this southern
system is being picked up on both the GFS/ECMWF barely skirting the
southwest most edge of the CWA on Friday night, but have kept a dry
forecast for now due high uncertainty of how this split flow
scenario plays out.

As for temperatures this weekend, Saturday and Sunday look similar
in that highs should top out in the mid 40s both days.  Saturday
looks to be cloudy all day while skies should clear Saturday night
allowing for some sunshine to come through partly cloudy skies on
Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the 18z TAFs, northwesterly winds will continue to gust upwards
of 25-35kts through early this afternoon before gradually
diminishing mid to late afternoon. MVFR cigs will likely persist
through much of the afternoon, but there is some certainty regarding
when this cloud cover with scatter out and/or lift to VFR
conditions. Have VFR conditions occurring by early this evening, but
will need to monitor the cloud cover trends.  Winds will back to the
west-southwest during the overnight hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 252051
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
251 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Water vapor imagery showed the shortwave trough sliding across
Missouri this afternoon as it progressed toward the Ohio River
Valley. The associated surface low was situated over southern
Illinois with a tight pressure gradient extending into central and
eastern Kansas. As a result, north-northwesterly winds were gusting
upwards of 35-45mph through early this afternoon but will gradually
diminish through mid to late afternoon as the surface low and
associated pressure gradient shift further to the east. Expansive
cloud cover from this passing system provided good insolation today,
keeping conditions cooler as temperatures struggled to warm much
from this morning`s low temperatures. As a result, afternoon high
temperatures should only peak in the low/mid 40s and possibly into
the upper 40s near central Kansas.

These low clouds may be a bit slow to clear out overnight, so
trended a couple of degrees warmer for temperatures tonight with lows in
the upper 20s/low 30s.  A weak ridge of surface high pressure will
slide across the area tonight before another area of surface low
pressure and associated surface trough track southward into the area
by mid-day Monday. Only expect some scattered low/mid clouds from
this passing trough with winds veering from southwest to northwest
by the afternoon. A modest thermal ridge should set up over the High
Plains with decent downslope winds aiding in a return to well
above-normal temperatures. Expect high temperatures to reach into
the low to mid 60s from east to west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Monday Night though Tuesday Night...

An upper level ridge across the southwestern US will move across the
central and southern plains on Wednesday.

Monday Night through Tuesday, A surface ridge of high pressure
across eastern KS Tuesday night will shift east into MO by the
afternoon hours of Tuesday. Light easterly winds will gradually back
to the southeast through the day as the surface ridge axis moves
east into MO.

Stronger WAA at the surface and 850mb across western KS will shift
east across central KS during the afternoon hours. The southwest
counties of the CWA will warm into the upper 60s as deeper mixing
and 850mb temps increase to 14 deg C. The mixing will not be as
deep over the northeast counties of the CWA, thus highs will only
reach the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday, A weak upper level trough will
round the H5 ridge axis across the southern and central plains.
There may be enough ascent to see an increase in the high and mid
cloud cover during the day on Wednesday. A lee surface low will move
east across KS during the day. A weak cold front will move southeast
across north central KS during the afternoon hours. The warmest
temperatures will occur ahead of the surface cold front during the
afternoon hour across east central KS where highs should reach the
mid to upper 60s. The northern counties will only see highs in the
lower 60s as winds shift to the northwest.

Wednesday through Sunday...

Wednesday through Wednesday evening, a shortwave and associated
surface low will skim northern Kansas.  Models are still in
agreement that no precipitation will be seen with this weak frontal
passage, as the mid levels of the atmosphere remain too dry even
though there is weak lift present.  A north-south temperature
gradient will be in place Wednesday with highs ranging from the
lower 60s in the north, to mid/upper 60s in the southern portion of
our area.  As the shortwave passes through Wednesday night, winds
veer to the north allowing for cooler temperatures Thursday.

Models have come in slightly better agreement for the overall
pattern Friday evening into Saturday.  A cutoff low will develop
over Southern California, while NW flow will develop from Canada
streaming into the northern Plains.  Energy from this southern
system is being picked up on both the GFS/ECMWF barely skirting the
southwest most edge of the CWA on Friday night, but have kept a dry
forecast for now due high uncertainty of how this split flow
scenario plays out.

As for temperatures this weekend, Saturday and Sunday look similar
in that highs should top out in the mid 40s both days.  Saturday
looks to be cloudy all day while skies should clear Saturday night
allowing for some sunshine to come through partly cloudy skies on
Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the 18z TAFs, northwesterly winds will continue to gust upwards
of 25-35kts through early this afternoon before gradually
diminishing mid to late afternoon. MVFR cigs will likely persist
through much of the afternoon, but there is some certainty regarding
when this cloud cover with scatter out and/or lift to VFR
conditions. Have VFR conditions occurring by early this evening, but
will need to monitor the cloud cover trends.  Winds will back to the
west-southwest during the overnight hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan/Heller
AVIATION...Hennecke






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000
FXUS63 KGLD 252015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.

OTHER THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH NIL POPS.  SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE.  MIXING WILL HELP HOLD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.
WARM 850 TEMPERATURES, SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP MAX
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN NUMBERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA. LARGE H5 RIDGE DOES PUSH
OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...BREAKING DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS THRU THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO OUR EAST...WILL GIVE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA A SL CHANCE FOR RW/SW ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
QPF EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THIS SETUP GIVING THE AREA A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IN RELATION TO THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE SETUP OF MOISTURE FEEDING IN FROM
THE SW/CUTOFF LOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS DO DIFFER ON EXTENT OF
MOISTURE PUSHING INTO AREA...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES HAVE BEST CHANCES TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL COME THRU AREA DRY WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR
YET ANOTHER DRY PERIOD. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED TO ANGE
FROM NEAT 70F TUESDAY DOWN TO THE 40-50F RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...WITH 30S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVERTIZED BY THE
MODELS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AS NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES
LIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS



000
FXUS63 KGLD 252015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
MONDAY.

OTHER THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH NIL POPS.  SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE.  MIXING WILL HELP HOLD MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.
WARM 850 TEMPERATURES, SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP MAX
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN NUMBERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA. LARGE H5 RIDGE DOES PUSH
OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...BREAKING DOWN BY MIDWEEK AS SHORTWAVE
WORKS THRU THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO OUR EAST...WILL GIVE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA A SL CHANCE FOR RW/SW ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
QPF EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THIS SETUP GIVING THE AREA A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH IN RELATION TO THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE SETUP OF MOISTURE FEEDING IN FROM
THE SW/CUTOFF LOW. LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS DO DIFFER ON EXTENT OF
MOISTURE PUSHING INTO AREA...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES HAVE BEST CHANCES TO
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE SHORTWAVE FOR WEDNESDAY
WILL COME THRU AREA DRY WITH LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FOR
YET ANOTHER DRY PERIOD. LOOKING FOR HIGHS IN THE EXTENDED TO ANGE
FROM NEAT 70F TUESDAY DOWN TO THE 40-50F RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...WITH 30S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVERTIZED BY THE
MODELS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AS NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES
LIGHT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS



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000
FXUS63 KDDC 252011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED ABOVE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. I BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS A WARM PLUME MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH DOWN-SLOPING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS ON THIS DAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY, AROUND 50 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE 20S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  71  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 252011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED ABOVE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. I BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS A WARM PLUME MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH DOWN-SLOPING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS ON THIS DAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY, AROUND 50 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE 20S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  71  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 252011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED ABOVE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. I BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS A WARM PLUME MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH DOWN-SLOPING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS ON THIS DAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY, AROUND 50 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE 20S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  71  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 252011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED ABOVE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND MID WEEK WHICH
WILL IN TURN HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. I BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT MODELS ARE SUGGESTING BUT THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY AS A WARM PLUME MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH DOWN-SLOPING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS ON THIS DAY
LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY, AROUND 50 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN 40S ON SATURDAY. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING THEN
INTO THE 20S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  71  36  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 251911
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  70  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  71  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251911
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  70  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  71  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251911
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  70  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  71  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251911
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

TONIGHT:

WIND VECTORS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN MAGNITUDE BY 7 PM TONIGHT AND
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD LINE. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S FOR THE WESTERN ZONES TO AROUND 30 FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH POPS AT ZERO PERCENT.

TOMORROW:

500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE FROM MID 550S DAM RIGHT NOW TO NEAR 580 DAM
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY TOMORROW EVENING. IN RELATED NEWS, TAKE
OUT THE SUNGLASSES AND PUT THE COAT IN THE CLOSET FOR A WHILE. WARMTH!
ONGOING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 70F STILL LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. COULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IF THE EC IS RIGHT. WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT TOMORROW AND WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE
TODAY. AGAIN, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DESPITE
THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SOME WINDS, CRITICAL/ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, EVEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  70  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  35  71  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  36  69  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  70  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  31  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  31  70  37  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KICT 251740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST. THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE
CROSSWIND ISSUES WITH LANDING AND TAKING OFF WITH THE NORTH AND
SOUTH RUNWAYS. THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER OUT THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL LOCATIONS AND BRING
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AOA VFR LIMITS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY...THOUGH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            46  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 251740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST. THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE
CROSSWIND ISSUES WITH LANDING AND TAKING OFF WITH THE NORTH AND
SOUTH RUNWAYS. THE ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER OUT THE
STRATOCUMULUS DECK CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL LOCATIONS AND BRING
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AOA VFR LIMITS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY...THOUGH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            46  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 251734
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVERTIZED BY THE
MODELS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AS NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES
LIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251734
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVERTIZED BY THE
MODELS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AS NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES
LIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251734
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVERTIZED BY THE
MODELS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AS NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES
LIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251734
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ADVERTIZED BY THE
MODELS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AS NORTHWEST WIND BECOMES
LIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 251720
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Mid-level shortwave is currently digging southeast over northeast
KS and eventually the mid MS valley later today. Isolated to
scattered showers have developed in response to the wave, and are
moving eastward through the forecast area. Several pieces of
energy associated with the wave are going to move over the area
through late morning especially far eastern KS. Have kept a slight
chance for these showers through noon when the wave moves further
east and subsidence as well as dry air takes over. With a fairly
mixed boundary layer and cloud cover the temperatures will remain
steady until cold air advection increases later this morning. Most
areas will stay in the 40s while far northeast KS could reach the
upper 30s based on upstream temperatures in central NE. Given the
strength of this system a decent pressure gradient has developed
over the plains. The northwesterly low level jet currently over
central NE will drop south into central KS and portions of eastern
KS during the morning hours. Mixing levels across KS will not vary
much from areas that have already received gusts over 45 mph. As
of now have sustained winds around 25 to 35 mph with gusts around
40 to 45 mph. These wind gusts could move into northern KS as
early as sunrise, but likely increase and become more widespread
late morning once daytime mixing begins. The pressure gradient is
forecast to weaken during the afternoon hours therefore expect the
surface gusts to do the same. Clouds will hang around most of the
day with high temperatures ranging from lower 40s in northeast KS
to upper 40s in central KS. A surface ridge quickly follows the
system, which builds in this evening and shifts the winds to the
southwest by morning. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Monday and Tuesday look to be warm and dry as northwest flow
aloft is absent of any shortwaves and low level flow from the west
and south helps advect warmer air into the area. With models
showing 925MB temps warming to between 12C and 15C, have trended
highs warmer into the lower and middle 60s. Tuesday`s lows may
still be in the upper 20s and lower 30s due to a weak ridge axis
helping to decouple the boundary layer. So there could be some
decent radiational cooling with dry low levels still in place.

For Wednesday, models have trended towards tracking the remnant
Baja California shortwave a little further south moving it across
northern KS into Wednesday evening. The GFS/ECMWF/GEM struggle to
generate any precip with this waves as there appears to be limited
mid level moisture with the system and the boundary layer moisture
remaining capped in spite of the forcing. Because of this, have
maintained a dry forecast but will want to reevaluate this with
future runs. Wednesday morning looks to be the warmest as low level
warm air advection persists through the morning bringing dewpoints
in the upper 30s into eastern KS. This should set up another mild
afternoon since models hold off on any cold air advection until
late in the day.

Shortwave ridging should keep Thursday dry before a split flow
aloft develops for Friday and Saturday. The GFS has trended
towards a more separated pattern between a cutoff low over the
southwest and northwest flow across the northern plains. As a
result of less organized forcing, it has backed off on its QPF
prog. So with the ECMWF continuing to show dry weather with the
cutoff to the west and energy within the northwest flow staying to
the northeast of the forecast area, have opted to keep a dry
forecast through the end of the period. The split flow also
suggests the colder Canadian air may stay to the northeast as
well. So temps for Friday and Saturday have trended a little
warmer as the GFS and ECMWF appear to bring a weaker ridge of high
pressure into KS. A fair amount of uncertainty exists for Thursday
through Saturday, so I would not be surprised to see adjustments
to this forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the 18z TAFs, northwesterly winds will continue to gust upwards
of 25-35kts through early this afternoon before gradually
diminishing mid to late afternoon. MVFR cigs will likely persist
through much of the afternoon, but there is some certainty regarding
when this cloud cover with scatter out and/or lift to VFR
conditions. Have VFR conditions occurring by early this evening, but
will need to monitor the cloud cover trends.  Winds will back to the
west-southwest during the overnight hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ008>011-
020>023-034>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke






000
FXUS63 KTOP 251720
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Mid-level shortwave is currently digging southeast over northeast
KS and eventually the mid MS valley later today. Isolated to
scattered showers have developed in response to the wave, and are
moving eastward through the forecast area. Several pieces of
energy associated with the wave are going to move over the area
through late morning especially far eastern KS. Have kept a slight
chance for these showers through noon when the wave moves further
east and subsidence as well as dry air takes over. With a fairly
mixed boundary layer and cloud cover the temperatures will remain
steady until cold air advection increases later this morning. Most
areas will stay in the 40s while far northeast KS could reach the
upper 30s based on upstream temperatures in central NE. Given the
strength of this system a decent pressure gradient has developed
over the plains. The northwesterly low level jet currently over
central NE will drop south into central KS and portions of eastern
KS during the morning hours. Mixing levels across KS will not vary
much from areas that have already received gusts over 45 mph. As
of now have sustained winds around 25 to 35 mph with gusts around
40 to 45 mph. These wind gusts could move into northern KS as
early as sunrise, but likely increase and become more widespread
late morning once daytime mixing begins. The pressure gradient is
forecast to weaken during the afternoon hours therefore expect the
surface gusts to do the same. Clouds will hang around most of the
day with high temperatures ranging from lower 40s in northeast KS
to upper 40s in central KS. A surface ridge quickly follows the
system, which builds in this evening and shifts the winds to the
southwest by morning. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Monday and Tuesday look to be warm and dry as northwest flow
aloft is absent of any shortwaves and low level flow from the west
and south helps advect warmer air into the area. With models
showing 925MB temps warming to between 12C and 15C, have trended
highs warmer into the lower and middle 60s. Tuesday`s lows may
still be in the upper 20s and lower 30s due to a weak ridge axis
helping to decouple the boundary layer. So there could be some
decent radiational cooling with dry low levels still in place.

For Wednesday, models have trended towards tracking the remnant
Baja California shortwave a little further south moving it across
northern KS into Wednesday evening. The GFS/ECMWF/GEM struggle to
generate any precip with this waves as there appears to be limited
mid level moisture with the system and the boundary layer moisture
remaining capped in spite of the forcing. Because of this, have
maintained a dry forecast but will want to reevaluate this with
future runs. Wednesday morning looks to be the warmest as low level
warm air advection persists through the morning bringing dewpoints
in the upper 30s into eastern KS. This should set up another mild
afternoon since models hold off on any cold air advection until
late in the day.

Shortwave ridging should keep Thursday dry before a split flow
aloft develops for Friday and Saturday. The GFS has trended
towards a more separated pattern between a cutoff low over the
southwest and northwest flow across the northern plains. As a
result of less organized forcing, it has backed off on its QPF
prog. So with the ECMWF continuing to show dry weather with the
cutoff to the west and energy within the northwest flow staying to
the northeast of the forecast area, have opted to keep a dry
forecast through the end of the period. The split flow also
suggests the colder Canadian air may stay to the northeast as
well. So temps for Friday and Saturday have trended a little
warmer as the GFS and ECMWF appear to bring a weaker ridge of high
pressure into KS. A fair amount of uncertainty exists for Thursday
through Saturday, so I would not be surprised to see adjustments
to this forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

For the 18z TAFs, northwesterly winds will continue to gust upwards
of 25-35kts through early this afternoon before gradually
diminishing mid to late afternoon. MVFR cigs will likely persist
through much of the afternoon, but there is some certainty regarding
when this cloud cover with scatter out and/or lift to VFR
conditions. Have VFR conditions occurring by early this evening, but
will need to monitor the cloud cover trends.  Winds will back to the
west-southwest during the overnight hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ008>011-
020>023-034>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 251713
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1113 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251713
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1113 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251713
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1113 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251713
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1113 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD AS DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 22-30 KT WITH DECREASE NNW 8-12 KT BY 00Z. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WNW/NW AGAIN 10-20 KT BY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KICT 251209
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
609 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AND LOWER CEILINGS
OVER SE KS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST MOVING UPPER IMPULSE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND APPROACHING THE OZARKS. AN AREA
OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND EVENTUALLY SE KS THIS MORNING.
STRONG NW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER WAVE WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT SE KS AFTER 15Z WITH
KCNU THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD
RISE TO VFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 251209
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
609 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS AND LOWER CEILINGS
OVER SE KS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST MOVING UPPER IMPULSE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND APPROACHING THE OZARKS. AN AREA
OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND EVENTUALLY SE KS THIS MORNING.
STRONG NW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE UPPER WAVE WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT SE KS AFTER 15Z WITH
KCNU THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO BE AFFECTED. THESE LOWER CIGS SHOULD
RISE TO VFR LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE WINDS SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 251152
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
552 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25KTS BY 17Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH 22Z AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 251152
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
552 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25KTS BY 17Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH 22Z AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 251152
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
552 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25KTS BY 17Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH 22Z AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 251152
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
552 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25KTS BY 17Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH 22Z AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 251134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
534 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Mid-level shortwave is currently digging southeast over northeast
KS and eventually the mid MS valley later today. Isolated to
scattered showers have developed in response to the wave, and are
moving eastward through the forecast area. Several pieces of
energy associated with the wave are going to move over the area
through late morning especially far eastern KS. Have kept a slight
chance for these showers through noon when the wave moves further
east and subsidence as well as dry air takes over. With a fairly
mixed boundary layer and cloud cover the temperatures will remain
steady until cold air advection increases later this morning. Most
areas will stay in the 40s while far northeast KS could reach the
upper 30s based on upstream temperatures in central NE. Given the
strength of this system a decent pressure gradient has developed
over the plains. The northwesterly low level jet currently over
central NE will drop south into central KS and portions of eastern
KS during the morning hours. Mixing levels across KS will not vary
much from areas that have already received gusts over 45 mph. As
of now have sustained winds around 25 to 35 mph with gusts around
40 to 45 mph. These wind gusts could move into northern KS as
early as sunrise, but likely increase and become more widespread
late morning once daytime mixing begins. The pressure gradient is
forecast to weaken during the afternoon hours therefore expect the
surface gusts to do the same. Clouds will hang around most of the
day with high temperatures ranging from lower 40s in northeast KS
to upper 40s in central KS. A surface ridge quickly follows the
system, which builds in this evening and shifts the winds to the
southwest by morning. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Monday and Tuesday look to be warm and dry as northwest flow
aloft is absent of any shortwaves and low level flow from the west
and south helps advect warmer air into the area. With models
showing 925MB temps warming to between 12C and 15C, have trended
highs warmer into the lower and middle 60s. Tuesday`s lows may
still be in the upper 20s and lower 30s due to a weak ridge axis
helping to decouple the boundary layer. So there could be some
decent radiational cooling with dry low levels still in place.

For Wednesday, models have trended towards tracking the remnant
Baja California shortwave a little further south moving it across
northern KS into Wednesday evening. The GFS/ECMWF/GEM struggle to
generate any precip with this waves as there appears to be limited
mid level moisture with the system and the boundary layer moisture
remaining capped in spite of the forcing. Because of this, have
maintained a dry forecast but will want to reevaluate this with
future runs. Wednesday morning looks to be the warmest as low level
warm air advection persists through the morning bringing dewpoints
in the upper 30s into eastern KS. This should set up another mild
afternoon since models hold off on any cold air advection until
late in the day.

Shortwave ridging should keep Thursday dry before a split flow
aloft develops for Friday and Saturday. The GFS has trended
towards a more separated pattern between a cutoff low over the
southwest and northwest flow across the northern plains. As a
result of less organized forcing, it has backed off on its QPF
prog. So with the ECMWF continuing to show dry weather with the
cutoff to the west and energy within the northwest flow staying to
the northeast of the forecast area, have opted to keep a dry
forecast through the end of the period. The split flow also
suggests the colder Canadian air may stay to the northeast as
well. So temps for Friday and Saturday have trended a little
warmer as the GFS and ECMWF appear to bring a weaker ridge of high
pressure into KS. A fair amount of uncertainty exists for Thursday
through Saturday, so I would not be surprised to see adjustments
to this forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR ceilings have worked into the taf sites, and are forecast to
linger through the daytime hours. For now have the clouds clearing
out of the taf sites around 22Z, although there is always a chance
they could persist a few hours longer than anticipated. There are
isolated showers and or sprinkles moving through the area until around
18Z. Winds will also decrease late afternoon, and eventually shift
to the southwest by the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ008>011-
020>023-034>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KTOP 251134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
534 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Mid-level shortwave is currently digging southeast over northeast
KS and eventually the mid MS valley later today. Isolated to
scattered showers have developed in response to the wave, and are
moving eastward through the forecast area. Several pieces of
energy associated with the wave are going to move over the area
through late morning especially far eastern KS. Have kept a slight
chance for these showers through noon when the wave moves further
east and subsidence as well as dry air takes over. With a fairly
mixed boundary layer and cloud cover the temperatures will remain
steady until cold air advection increases later this morning. Most
areas will stay in the 40s while far northeast KS could reach the
upper 30s based on upstream temperatures in central NE. Given the
strength of this system a decent pressure gradient has developed
over the plains. The northwesterly low level jet currently over
central NE will drop south into central KS and portions of eastern
KS during the morning hours. Mixing levels across KS will not vary
much from areas that have already received gusts over 45 mph. As
of now have sustained winds around 25 to 35 mph with gusts around
40 to 45 mph. These wind gusts could move into northern KS as
early as sunrise, but likely increase and become more widespread
late morning once daytime mixing begins. The pressure gradient is
forecast to weaken during the afternoon hours therefore expect the
surface gusts to do the same. Clouds will hang around most of the
day with high temperatures ranging from lower 40s in northeast KS
to upper 40s in central KS. A surface ridge quickly follows the
system, which builds in this evening and shifts the winds to the
southwest by morning. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Monday and Tuesday look to be warm and dry as northwest flow
aloft is absent of any shortwaves and low level flow from the west
and south helps advect warmer air into the area. With models
showing 925MB temps warming to between 12C and 15C, have trended
highs warmer into the lower and middle 60s. Tuesday`s lows may
still be in the upper 20s and lower 30s due to a weak ridge axis
helping to decouple the boundary layer. So there could be some
decent radiational cooling with dry low levels still in place.

For Wednesday, models have trended towards tracking the remnant
Baja California shortwave a little further south moving it across
northern KS into Wednesday evening. The GFS/ECMWF/GEM struggle to
generate any precip with this waves as there appears to be limited
mid level moisture with the system and the boundary layer moisture
remaining capped in spite of the forcing. Because of this, have
maintained a dry forecast but will want to reevaluate this with
future runs. Wednesday morning looks to be the warmest as low level
warm air advection persists through the morning bringing dewpoints
in the upper 30s into eastern KS. This should set up another mild
afternoon since models hold off on any cold air advection until
late in the day.

Shortwave ridging should keep Thursday dry before a split flow
aloft develops for Friday and Saturday. The GFS has trended
towards a more separated pattern between a cutoff low over the
southwest and northwest flow across the northern plains. As a
result of less organized forcing, it has backed off on its QPF
prog. So with the ECMWF continuing to show dry weather with the
cutoff to the west and energy within the northwest flow staying to
the northeast of the forecast area, have opted to keep a dry
forecast through the end of the period. The split flow also
suggests the colder Canadian air may stay to the northeast as
well. So temps for Friday and Saturday have trended a little
warmer as the GFS and ECMWF appear to bring a weaker ridge of high
pressure into KS. A fair amount of uncertainty exists for Thursday
through Saturday, so I would not be surprised to see adjustments
to this forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 522 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MVFR ceilings have worked into the taf sites, and are forecast to
linger through the daytime hours. For now have the clouds clearing
out of the taf sites around 22Z, although there is always a chance
they could persist a few hours longer than anticipated. There are
isolated showers and or sprinkles moving through the area until around
18Z. Winds will also decrease late afternoon, and eventually shift
to the southwest by the end of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 2 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ008>011-
020>023-034>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KGLD 251120
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
420 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
JET MIX TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251120
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
420 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
JET MIX TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251120
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
420 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
JET MIX TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 251120
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
420 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
JET MIX TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250949
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 250949
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250949
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 250949
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 250949
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 250949
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ALSO TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
UPPER WAVE WAS MOVING INTO OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAD MOVED
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND CLOUDS WERE DIMINISHING OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.

FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WERE ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE KDDC VWP WAS SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850 MILLIBAR
WIND PROGS FROM THE RUC13 AND HRRR. THESE MODELS SHOW A BROAD AREA
OF 50-60 KNOT WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS REPORTS
FROM AREA AWOS`S. THE MODELS SHOW THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS GRADUALLY
PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID/LATE MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE THE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 50+ KNOT WIND GUSTS AROUND
MEDICINE LODGE LATER THIS MORNING BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THE TIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO MIX OUT. WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COOLER DAY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
COOLER THAN SATURDAY BY SOME 4-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 50 AT HAYS TO THE MID/UPPER 50S FROM
DODGE CITY WEST TO THE COLORADO LINE. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE WEST AND COULD INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND
10-12 KNOTS. THIS COULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES HELD UP IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KGLD 250926
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING TO BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 50 KNOTS SHOWING UP AT ABOUT 2KFT AGL AND
INCREASING TO OVER 100 KTS WITH THE JET ALOFT ABOVE 18K FT AGL.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO NOT HOLD ONTO THE 50+ KT WINDS AS LONG
BELOW 5K FT AGL...SO BY 18Z...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS TO HAVE PEAKED
AT AROUND 20-25KTS GUSTING TO 30-35KTS AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN THEY HAVE BY THAT POINT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND
TURNING WEST AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250926
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
226 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
ONLY FORECAST UP TO 800MB EXPECTING A FEW GUSTS IN THE 30-40KT
RANGE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN DIMINISHING
BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON BOTH DAYS WILL POTENTIALLY REACH THE 70S...WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. RECORD HIGHS ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD RECORDS WILL
BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING TO BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 50 KNOTS SHOWING UP AT ABOUT 2KFT AGL AND
INCREASING TO OVER 100 KTS WITH THE JET ALOFT ABOVE 18K FT AGL.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO NOT HOLD ONTO THE 50+ KT WINDS AS LONG
BELOW 5K FT AGL...SO BY 18Z...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS TO HAVE PEAKED
AT AROUND 20-25KTS GUSTING TO 30-35KTS AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN THEY HAVE BY THAT POINT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND
TURNING WEST AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KDDC 250923
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250923
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. HIGHS OUGHT TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS ARE EXHIBITING LOTS OF VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO
THE AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BAJA. COLD AIR CONTINUES
TO BE DELIVERED INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. IF THE
SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD DOME, THEN SNOW WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
HAS BEEN FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BAJA.
BUT IT IS VERY UNCERTAIN JUST HOW FAR NORTHEAST ANY PRECIPITATION
WOULD OCCUR AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. FOR
NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER OR COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  57  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  37  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  57  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  31  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  31  70  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KICT 250910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS AFTER 12-15Z ON SUNDAY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5K FT AND 10K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS AFTER 12-15Z ON SUNDAY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5K FT AND 10K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS AFTER 12-15Z ON SUNDAY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5K FT AND 10K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE KICKING UP THE NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT WITNESS SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY. THE SUNSHINE WOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER...THUS GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MUCH WARMER AIR
RETURNS TO KANSAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE AT A PREMIUM ON MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SORE INTO THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AND NEW RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ONE MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FLEET-FOOTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES COME
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HEARTLAND
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA. CURRENT LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR COOL DOWN LIKE WE
SAW EARLY THIS MONTH...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK LOW FOR
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA REGION...AND NORTHWEST FLOW CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS AFTER 12-15Z ON SUNDAY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5K FT AND 10K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  30  68  37 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      50  29  69  35 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        49  29  67  37 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  30  67  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         49  29  70  36 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      51  29  71  36 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       48  29  68  35 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  29  64  35 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  28  62  34 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  28  61  34 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  28  63  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 250904
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  AS IT COMES ACROSS SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE WINDY CATEGORY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS
ALSO LACKING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY GOOD MIXING BUT CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 06Z WILL HELP WITH COOLING.  EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS MODELS AND
FORECAST GUIDANCE PERSIST IN A BATTLE ON WHICH SOLUTION WINS...A
STRONG EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH OR A SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW.
OVERALL...FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH
WINNING AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THIS
HAS SOME DRAWBACKS...ESPECIALLY WITH A TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
AND PROBABLY ONLY CHANCE COMES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THERE
MAY BE SOME WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS TEND TO OVERPLAY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN
THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES WHEN LITTLE FORCING IS INVOLVED.
THEREFORE...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
ANOTHER THORN IN THE SIDE IS THAT THIS WOULD BE A SPLIT-FLOW
PATTERN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS TYPICALLY DETRIMENTAL TO OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED
THERE WAS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TOWARDS EITHER PRECIPITATION FALLING OR
NO PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL GUIDANCE HAS A
BETTER GRASP ON THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

BACK TO TEMPERATURES...AS ALLUDED TO BEFORE...THERE ARE SOME
DRAWBACKS WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. IF THE
EASTERN TROUGH WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION
EVOLVES...WE WOULD EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF QUICK MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEMS AND BRIEF COOL-DOWNS...FOLLOWED BY WARM-UPS. THE CONFUSING
ASPECT ABOUT THIS IS THAT THE GFS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A COLD
AIRMASS PLAGUES THE REGION FRIDAY WITH WARMING AFTERWARDS. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THIS SOLUTION AND INSTEAD KEEPS
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER A SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR TODAY. OVERALL...DECIDED A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION COMPARED
TO WHAT THE INITIALIZATION GAVE ME WAS PROBABLY A MORE FAVORABLE
SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING TO BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 50 KNOTS SHOWING UP AT ABOUT 2KFT AGL AND
INCREASING TO OVER 100 KTS WITH THE JET ALOFT ABOVE 18K FT AGL.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO NOT HOLD ONTO THE 50+ KT WINDS AS LONG
BELOW 5K FT AGL...SO BY 18Z...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS TO HAVE PEAKED
AT AROUND 20-25KTS GUSTING TO 30-35KTS AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN THEY HAVE BY THAT POINT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND
TURNING WEST AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KTOP 250853
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
253 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Mid-level shortwave is currently digging southeast over northeast
KS and eventually the mid MS valley later today. Isolated to
scattered showers have developed in response to the wave, and are
moving eastward through the forecast area. Several pieces of
energy associated with the wave are going to move over the area
through late morning especially far eastern KS. Have kept a slight
chance for these showers through noon when the wave moves further
east and subsidence as well as dry air takes over. With a fairly
mixed boundary layer and cloud cover the temperatures will remain
steady until cold air advection increases later this morning. Most
areas will stay in the 40s while far northeast KS could reach the
upper 30s based on upstream temperatures in central NE. Given the
strength of this system a decent pressure gradient has developed
over the plains. The northwesterly low level jet currently over
central NE will drop south into central KS and portions of eastern
KS during the morning hours. Mixing levels across KS will not vary
much from areas that have already received gusts over 45 mph. As
of now have sustained winds around 25 to 35 mph with gusts around
40 to 45 mph. These wind gusts could move into northern KS as
early as sunrise, but likely increase and become more widespread
late morning once daytime mixing begins. The pressure gradient is
forecast to weaken during the afternoon hours therefore expect the
surface gusts to do the same. Clouds will hang around most of the
day with high temperatures ranging from lower 40s in northeast KS
to upper 40s in central KS. A surface ridge quickly follows the
system, which builds in this evening and shifts the winds to the
southwest by morning. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Monday and Tuesday look to be warm and dry as northwest flow
aloft is absent of any shortwaves and low level flow from the west
and south helps advect warmer air into the area. With models
showing 925MB temps warming to between 12C and 15C, have trended
highs warmer into the lower and middle 60s. Tuesday`s lows may
still be in the upper 20s and lower 30s due to a weak ridge axis
helping to decouple the boundary layer. So there could be some
decent radiational cooling with dry low levels still in place.

For Wednesday, models have trended towards tracking the remnant
Baja California shortwave a little further south moving it across
northern KS into Wednesday evening. The GFS/ECMWF/GEM struggle to
generate any precip with this waves as there appears to be limited
mid level moisture with the system and the boundary layer moisture
remaining capped in spite of the forcing. Because of this, have
maintained a dry forecast but will want to reevaluate this with
future runs. Wednesday morning looks to be the warmest as low level
warm air advection persists through the morning bringing dewpoints
in the upper 30s into eastern KS. This should set up another mild
afternoon since models hold off on any cold air advection until
late in the day.

Shortwave ridging should keep Thursday dry before a split flow
aloft develops for Friday and Saturday. The GFS has trended
towards a more separated pattern between a cutoff low over the
southwest and northwest flow across the northern plains. As a
result of less organized forcing, it has backed off on its QPF
prog. So with the ECMWF continuing to show dry weather with the
cutoff to the west and energy within the northwest flow staying to
the northeast of the forecast area, have opted to keep a dry
forecast through the end of the period. The split flow also
suggests the colder Canadian air may stay to the northeast as
well. So temps for Friday and Saturday have trended a little
warmer as the GFS and ECMWF appear to bring a weaker ridge of high
pressure into KS. A fair amount of uncertainty exists for Thursday
through Saturday, so I would not be surprised to see adjustments
to this forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

With hit and miss light rain showers near terminals will continue
with VCSH for the first half of the forecast period. Winds pick up
gusts in the next few hours and continue through the morning into
the afternoon, before diminishing toward sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

With a storm system passing to the east of the area, northwest
winds are expected to gust between 30 and 40 MPH into the early
afternoon. These winds raise some concern for fire weather as
fuels remain critical over central and eastern KS. However cloud
cover and cooler temps (highs in the 40s) are expected to keep RH
values around 40 percent or higher. Where temps are able to reach
the mid and upper 40s, RH values will be lower and the fire danger
index should easily reach high. This is most likely to occur along
a line from Concordia to Emporia and areas southwest.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind advisory from 6am til 2 pm CST today for areas along and west
of a line from Seneca to Emporia. KSZ008>011-020>023-034>038-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KGLD 250542
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  AS IT COMES ACROSS SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE WINDY CATEGORY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS
ALSO LACKING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY GOOD MIXING BUT CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 06Z WILL HELP WITH COOLING.  EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANSITION FROM A WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO ONE THAT IS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. MODELS DO SHIFT RIDGE
OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION GOING INTO NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. GOING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEGINNING THE COOLING DOWN OF TEMPS
TO NEAR NORMAL AS CAA RE-SURFACES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
PLAINS REGION BEHIND EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MODEL 925 MB TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FROM +14C TO
+18C DURING PEAK WARMING...THEN TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE +5C TO +9C
RANGE MIDDAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER GOING
INTO THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION...THESE
TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F FOR BOTH
DAYS...WITH 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEXT WEDNESDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR 60F DOWN TO THE MID
30S...IN PART BY 2 WAVES OF COLD AIR ARRIVING WITH TROUGH PASSAGES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH BEST
TIMEFRAME OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF SECOND
SYSTEM. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF CUTOFF OVER SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY THATS LIFTS NORTH AS H5 RIDGE GOES EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH REMNANTS THEN SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AS FIRST SHORTWAVE.
RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT OVER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM DRY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX WITH CUTOFF OVER THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING SL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
ACCUM INCH OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES ARE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING TO BRING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH 50 KNOTS SHOWING UP AT ABOUT 2KFT AGL AND
INCREASING TO OVER 100 KTS WITH THE JET ALOFT ABOVE 18K FT AGL.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TO NOT HOLD ONTO THE 50+ KT WINDS AS LONG
BELOW 5K FT AGL...SO BY 18Z...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS TO HAVE PEAKED
AT AROUND 20-25KTS GUSTING TO 30-35KTS AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE ANY FURTHER THAN THEY HAVE BY THAT POINT. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND
TURNING WEST AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KICT 250542
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SUBSIDENT REGIME ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS
EVENING. A TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ADJUSTING THE TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30+ KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED LATER THIS EVENING.

MCGUIRE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS AFTER 12-15Z ON SUNDAY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5K FT AND 10K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250542
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SUBSIDENT REGIME ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS
EVENING. A TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ADJUSTING THE TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30+ KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED LATER THIS EVENING.

MCGUIRE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS AFTER 12-15Z ON SUNDAY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5K FT AND 10K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250542
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SUBSIDENT REGIME ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS
EVENING. A TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ADJUSTING THE TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30+ KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED LATER THIS EVENING.

MCGUIRE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS AFTER 12-15Z ON SUNDAY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5K FT AND 10K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250542
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SUBSIDENT REGIME ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS
EVENING. A TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ADJUSTING THE TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30+ KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED LATER THIS EVENING.

MCGUIRE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO
30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS AFTER 12-15Z ON SUNDAY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS IN THE 5K FT AND 10K FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...ESPECIALLLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER VFR WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250531
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS BELOW A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BRINGING WESTERN KANSAS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TREKS UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONG
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WHERE AS THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A
DRIER PATTERN AND THE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO
THE PRESENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A FEW PLACES
COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY DIPPING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND AROUND 50
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  60  33  68 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  35  61  33  69 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  31  58  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  60  33  69 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  36  53  31  68 /  20   0   0   0
P28  38  57  31  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 250531
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS BELOW A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BRINGING WESTERN KANSAS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TREKS UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONG
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WHERE AS THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A
DRIER PATTERN AND THE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO
THE PRESENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A FEW PLACES
COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY DIPPING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND AROUND 50
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS AT TIME BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNSET ON SUNDAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  60  33  68 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  35  61  33  69 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  31  58  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  60  33  69 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  36  53  31  68 /  20   0   0   0
P28  38  57  31  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KTOP 250527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.

The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.

Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.

Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Sunday Night through Monday Night ...

By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S.  A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday Night...

A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place.  A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area.  The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains.  Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation.  Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow.  As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.

As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.  A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing.  Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

With hit and miss light rain showers near terminals will continue
with VCSH for the first half of the forecast period. Winds pick up
gusts in the next few hours and continue through the morning into
the afternoon, before diminishing toward sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 250527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.

The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.

Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.

Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Sunday Night through Monday Night ...

By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S.  A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday Night...

A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place.  A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area.  The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains.  Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation.  Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow.  As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.

As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.  A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing.  Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

With hit and miss light rain showers near terminals will continue
with VCSH for the first half of the forecast period. Winds pick up
gusts in the next few hours and continue through the morning into
the afternoon, before diminishing toward sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 250527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.

The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.

Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.

Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Sunday Night through Monday Night ...

By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S.  A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday Night...

A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place.  A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area.  The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains.  Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation.  Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow.  As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.

As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.  A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing.  Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

With hit and miss light rain showers near terminals will continue
with VCSH for the first half of the forecast period. Winds pick up
gusts in the next few hours and continue through the morning into
the afternoon, before diminishing toward sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 250527
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.

The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.

Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.

Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Sunday Night through Monday Night ...

By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S.  A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday Night...

A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place.  A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area.  The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains.  Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation.  Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow.  As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.

As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.  A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing.  Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

With hit and miss light rain showers near terminals will continue
with VCSH for the first half of the forecast period. Winds pick up
gusts in the next few hours and continue through the morning into
the afternoon, before diminishing toward sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KICT 250315
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
915 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SUBSIDENT REGIME ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS
EVENING. A TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ADJUSTING THE TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30+ KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED LATER THIS EVENING.

MCGUIRE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. TRANSIENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 4K FT
WITH VFR PREVAILING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250315
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
915 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE SUBSIDENT REGIME ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS
EVENING. A TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ADJUSTING THE TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30+ KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED LATER THIS EVENING.

MCGUIRE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. TRANSIENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 4K FT
WITH VFR PREVAILING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 250007
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  AS IT COMES ACROSS SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE WINDY CATEGORY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS
ALSO LACKING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY GOOD MIXING BUT CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 06Z WILL HELP WITH COOLING.  EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANSITION FROM A WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO ONE THAT IS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. MODELS DO SHIFT RIDGE
OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION GOING INTO NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. GOING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEGINNING THE COOLING DOWN OF TEMPS
TO NEAR NORMAL AS CAA RE-SURFACES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
PLAINS REGION BEHIND EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MODEL 925 MB TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FROM +14C TO
+18C DURING PEAK WARMING...THEN TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE +5C TO +9C
RANGE MIDDAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER GOING
INTO THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION...THESE
TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F FOR BOTH
DAYS...WITH 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEXT WEDNESDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR 60F DOWN TO THE MID
30S...IN PART BY 2 WAVES OF COLD AIR ARRIVING WITH TROUGH PASSAGES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH BEST
TIMEFRAME OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF SECOND
SYSTEM. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF CUTOFF OVER SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY THATS LIFTS NORTH AS H5 RIDGE GOES EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH REMNANTS THEN SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AS FIRST SHORTWAVE.
RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT OVER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM DRY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX WITH CUTOFF OVER THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING SL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
ACCUM INCH OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 451 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER 06Z. BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...BECOMING
GUSTY BY 12Z AND INCREASING FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WIND WILL BE CAUSED BY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE SUBSIDENCE WAKE OF AN
EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS 1500FT AGL SHOULD BE AROUND
50KTS FROM 06Z-18Z WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 100+KTS IN THE JET STREAM
ABOVE 15KFT AGL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 250007
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  AS IT COMES ACROSS SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
BREEZY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE WINDY CATEGORY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS
ALSO LACKING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY GOOD MIXING BUT CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 06Z WILL HELP WITH COOLING.  EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANSITION FROM A WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO ONE THAT IS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. MODELS DO SHIFT RIDGE
OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION GOING INTO NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. GOING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEGINNING THE COOLING DOWN OF TEMPS
TO NEAR NORMAL AS CAA RE-SURFACES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
PLAINS REGION BEHIND EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MODEL 925 MB TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FROM +14C TO
+18C DURING PEAK WARMING...THEN TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE +5C TO +9C
RANGE MIDDAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER GOING
INTO THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION...THESE
TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F FOR BOTH
DAYS...WITH 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEXT WEDNESDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR 60F DOWN TO THE MID
30S...IN PART BY 2 WAVES OF COLD AIR ARRIVING WITH TROUGH PASSAGES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH BEST
TIMEFRAME OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF SECOND
SYSTEM. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF CUTOFF OVER SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY THATS LIFTS NORTH AS H5 RIDGE GOES EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH REMNANTS THEN SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AS FIRST SHORTWAVE.
RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT OVER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM DRY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX WITH CUTOFF OVER THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING SL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
ACCUM INCH OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 451 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z-
06Z WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER 06Z. BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...BECOMING
GUSTY BY 12Z AND INCREASING FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALL THIS WIND WILL BE CAUSED BY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS
ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE SUBSIDENCE WAKE OF AN
EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WITH ADDITIONAL MIXING DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS 1500FT AGL SHOULD BE AROUND
50KTS FROM 06Z-18Z WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 100+KTS IN THE JET STREAM
ABOVE 15KFT AGL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KICT 250003
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS
EVENING. A TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ADJUSTING THE TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30+ KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED LATER THIS EVENING.

MCGUIRE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. TRANSIENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 4K FT
WITH VFR PREVAILING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 250003
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS
EVENING. A TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND ADJUSTING THE TIMING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CAA/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG PRESSURE RISES...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30+ KNOTS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. IF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED LATER THIS EVENING.

MCGUIRE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. TRANSIENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...HOWEVER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 4K FT
WITH VFR PREVAILING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY ON SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS COMMON
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  40  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  30  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  40  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  20  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  30  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 242348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.

The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.

Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.

Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Sunday Night through Monday Night ...

By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S.  A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday Night...

A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place.  A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area.  The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains.  Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation.  Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow.  As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.

As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.  A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing.  Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TAF is primarily a wind forecast, with MVFR cigs in the later
period. Initially west winds increase to generally 15-20kts
overnight and into the day Sunday. Winds diminish later in the
afternoon. Showers on radar are more likely virga given dry air in
low levels and will carry VCSH at this time, noting that these
passing virga showers may also bring gusty winds as they pass.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 242348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.

The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.

Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.

Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Sunday Night through Monday Night ...

By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S.  A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday Night...

A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place.  A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area.  The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains.  Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation.  Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow.  As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.

As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.  A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing.  Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TAF is primarily a wind forecast, with MVFR cigs in the later
period. Initially west winds increase to generally 15-20kts
overnight and into the day Sunday. Winds diminish later in the
afternoon. Showers on radar are more likely virga given dry air in
low levels and will carry VCSH at this time, noting that these
passing virga showers may also bring gusty winds as they pass.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KDDC 242329
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
529 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS BELOW A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BRINGING WESTERN KANSAS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TREKS UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONG
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WHERE AS THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A
DRIER PATTERN AND THE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO
THE PRESENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A FEW PLACES
COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY DIPPING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND AROUND 50
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS PLOWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CURRENTLY, AND WINDS AT KHYS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER EACH TAF LOCATION, THERE WILL
BE A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE TO THREE HOURS, BUT
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. IT WILL GET RATHER BREEZY WITH
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 18G28KT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  60  33  68 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  35  61  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  58  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  60  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  53  31  68 /  20   0   0   0
P28  38  57  31  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 242329
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
529 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS BELOW A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BRINGING WESTERN KANSAS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TREKS UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONG
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WHERE AS THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A
DRIER PATTERN AND THE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO
THE PRESENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A FEW PLACES
COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY DIPPING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND AROUND 50
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS PLOWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CURRENTLY, AND WINDS AT KHYS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER EACH TAF LOCATION, THERE WILL
BE A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE TO THREE HOURS, BUT
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. IT WILL GET RATHER BREEZY WITH
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AT 18G28KT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  60  33  68 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  35  61  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  58  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  60  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  53  31  68 /  20   0   0   0
P28  38  57  31  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE



000
FXUS63 KGLD 242308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  AS IT COMES ACROSS SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
BREEZY CATERGORY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE WINDY CATEGORY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO
THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA.  ALSO H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS ALSO LACKING.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.  WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY GOOD MIXING BUT CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 06Z WILL HELP WITH COOLING.  EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANSITION FROM A WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO ONE THAT IS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. MODELS DO SHIFT RIDGE
OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION GOING INTO NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. GOING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEGINNING THE COOLING DOWN OF TEMPS
TO NEAR NORMAL AS CAA RE-SURFACES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
PLAINS REGION BEHIND EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MODEL 925 MB TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FROM +14C TO
+18C DURING PEAK WARMING...THEN TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE +5C TO +9C
RANGE MIDDAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER GOING
INTO THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION...THESE
TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F FOR BOTH
DAYS...WITH 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEXT WEDNESDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR 60F DOWN TO THE MID
30S...IN PART BY 2 WAVES OF COLD AIR ARRIVING WITH TROUGH PASSAGES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH BEST
TIMEFRAME OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF SECOND
SYSTEM. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF CUTOFF OVER SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY THATS LIFTS NORTH AS H5 RIDGE GOES EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH REMNANTS THEN SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AS FIRST SHORTWAVE.
RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT OVER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM DRY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX WITH CUTOFF OVER THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING SL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
ACCUM INCH OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGLD ACCORDING TO THE KGLD POINT
SOUNDING. HOWEVER, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT CLOUD BASES WILL GET
THAT LOW BASED ON LACK OF H8-7 RH. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS



000
FXUS63 KGLD 242308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE SPRINKLES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  AS IT COMES ACROSS SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
BREEZY CATERGORY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE WINDY CATEGORY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO
THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA.  ALSO H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS ALSO LACKING.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.  WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY GOOD MIXING BUT CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 06Z WILL HELP WITH COOLING.  EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANSITION FROM A WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO ONE THAT IS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. MODELS DO SHIFT RIDGE
OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION GOING INTO NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. GOING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEGINNING THE COOLING DOWN OF TEMPS
TO NEAR NORMAL AS CAA RE-SURFACES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
PLAINS REGION BEHIND EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MODEL 925 MB TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FROM +14C TO
+18C DURING PEAK WARMING...THEN TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE +5C TO +9C
RANGE MIDDAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER GOING
INTO THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION...THESE
TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F FOR BOTH
DAYS...WITH 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEXT WEDNESDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR 60F DOWN TO THE MID
30S...IN PART BY 2 WAVES OF COLD AIR ARRIVING WITH TROUGH PASSAGES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH BEST
TIMEFRAME OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF SECOND
SYSTEM. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF CUTOFF OVER SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY THATS LIFTS NORTH AS H5 RIDGE GOES EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH REMNANTS THEN SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AS FIRST SHORTWAVE.
RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT OVER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM DRY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX WITH CUTOFF OVER THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING SL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
ACCUM INCH OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGLD ACCORDING TO THE KGLD POINT
SOUNDING. HOWEVER, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT CLOUD BASES WILL GET
THAT LOW BASED ON LACK OF H8-7 RH. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KICT 242103
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAYS MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF WIND WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
KTS BEHIND IT AT THE SURFACE AND 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

WIND WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

KRC


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  20  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  20  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 242103
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAYS MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF WIND WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
KTS BEHIND IT AT THE SURFACE AND 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

WIND WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

KRC


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  20  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  20  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 242103
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAYS MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF WIND WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
KTS BEHIND IT AT THE SURFACE AND 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

WIND WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

KRC


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  20  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  20  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 242103
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH IS ALREADY BRINGING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER KANSAS. WESTERLY WINDS/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SOME MIXING HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WHILE STAYING IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI TONIGHT. WHAT IS DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE IS
HOW FAR WESTWARD THE ENERGY IS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWER
LEVELS STILL LOOK QUITE DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH...HOWEVER...INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
MORNING. NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEEING PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TOMORROW...BUT COOLER THAN
TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN
TONIGHT WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 50S. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORDS COULD BE IN
JEOPARDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S...SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAYS MORNING. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL ENSUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE IN THE 60S. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY DROP BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 40S AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND BACK IN TO THE 30S BY THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
ANY SPECIFICS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF WIND WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
KTS BEHIND IT AT THE SURFACE AND 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

WIND WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

KRC


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 26TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 1953
SALINA......70 DEGREES IN 1951
RUSSELL.....72 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....73 DEGREES IN 1911

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 27TH
WICHITA.....69 DEGREES IN 2013
SALINA......68 DEGREES IN 1934
RUSSELL.....65 DEGREES IN 2002
CHANUTE.....70 DEGREES IN 1934

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  53  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  53  29  66 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          38  50  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  51  29  63 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  54  30  66 /  10  10   0   0
RUSSELL         38  52  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  54  29  69 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          39  52  29  65 /  20  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  52  29  65 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     40  54  29  61 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         39  51  28  59 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            38  49  28  58 /  20  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    39  52  28  59 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 242101
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
301 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.

The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.

Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.

Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Sunday Night through Monday Night ...

By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S.  A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday Night...

A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place.  A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area.  The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains.  Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation.  Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow.  As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.

As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.  A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing.  Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will
increase to 11 to 15 KTS with some gusts this afternoon. The wind gusts
will diminish after sunset. Northwest winds will increase to 14 to
17 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS after 12Z SUN. An upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for sprinkles or very light
showers across the terminals this evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 242101
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
301 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

An upper level trough located across the northern plains this
afternoon will dig southeast into the mid MS river valley by Sunday
Afternoon.

The stronger ascent ahead of this upper level trough will remain
across the northern plains into the Midwest and OH river valley. The
mesoscale models show another area of stronger ascent developing
within the left exit region, ahead of an 80 KT H5 jet max, which
will dig from eastern MT this afternoon, southeast across western
KS, into northeast OK through the night. Both the Advanced Research
and Non-hydrostatic WRF model solutions show an area of light rain
developing across west central KS this evening in the region of the
left exit region of the H5 jet. ATTM, the area of light rain will
move southeast ahead of the H5 jet max and spread southeast across
south central KS into northeast OK through the night. The 12Z GFS
model is the only solution showing the area of steadier light rain
moving across the southern half of the CWA this evening. I will be
leaning more towards the ARW, NMM and HRRR solutions.

Most of the CWA will only see occasional sprinkles or very light
rain showers through the night into the morning hours of Sunday as
the H5 trough axis moves southeast. Forecast soundings continue to
show a drier layer air within the lowest 6,000 feet of the
atmosphere. Overnight lows will be mild with westerly winds of 10 to
20 MPH. Most areas should see overnight lows only dropping into the
upper 30s.

Sunday, as the upper trough amplifies across northern MO, wrap
around rain showers are possible across the northeast and east
central KS. These showers look to be light with only a trace
to 0.01 inch of QPF forecasted. A surface/925mb low will deepen
across northern MO through the day. Northwest winds will increase
through the mid morning hours to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 40
MPH. The southern counties of the CWA may flirt with wind advisory
criteria during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The
low-level CAA will only allow high temperatures to reach the lower
to mid 40s across the eastern half of the CWA, where clouds may
continue through most of the day. The western counties may see some
afternoon insolation which may help highs to reach into the mid to
upper 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Sunday Night through Monday Night ...

By Sunday night, the vertically-stacked surface low and mid-level
low will be situated over the Ohio River Valley with
north-northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the central U.S.  A
narrow ridge of surface high pressure will spill southward into the
forecast area Sunday night into Monday resulting in mostly clear
skies and light winds. As a result, decent radiational cooling will
help drop overnight low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

Models show the next surface low positioned over the far northern U.S.
and tracking toward the Great Lakes region through Monday night. An
associated cold front will extend southward across the Northern and
Central Plains Monday morning and is expected to skim southeastward
across the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon
hours. Since this front looks to barely extend far enough south into
the area, there should not be a strong wind shift associated with
this frontal passage. As a result, models show winds gradually
veering from southwest to west-northwest through the day. Soundings
are very dry so don`t even expect much in the way of cloud cover
with this frontal passage. With a thermal ridge in place just west
of the forecast area and decent downslope winds expected, should see
another mild day with high temperatures reaching into the upper 50s
east to middle 60s west. An area of surface high pressure will
advance into the Northern and Central Plains behind the front, with
mostly clear skies and light northwesterly winds resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the low 30s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday through Saturday Night...

A pattern of benign weather is expected Tuesday through Friday as a
dry forecast remains in place.  A wave will push through the area on
Wednesday evening; however, any precipitation associated with this
energy will be to the north of the area.  The next mention of
precipitation is Saturday, associated with a shortwave amplifying in
the Rocky Mountains.  Two completely different solutions are seen by
the models with the ECMWF proposing energy with this system will
stay well south keeping the area completely dry, while the GFS
solution continues to amplify this wave allowing for a moderate
amount of precipitation.  Due to such a robust solution with the
GFS, have put in 20 percent chances for PoPs over the entire area
Saturday, with a chance for both rain and snow.  As of right now,
confidence of how this system will play out is low and should
continue to be monitored.

As for temperatures, Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be above
normal with highs topping out in the upper 50s/lower 60s.  A weak
cold front associated with the system on Wednesday will lower
temperatures slightly Thursday and Friday, with highs in the mid 40s
and lows below freezing.  Saturday will be even cooler as winds
shift from the north bringing highs back to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will
increase to 11 to 15 KTS with some gusts this afternoon. The wind gusts
will diminish after sunset. Northwest winds will increase to 14 to
17 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS after 12Z SUN. An upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for sprinkles or very light
showers across the terminals this evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller/Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KGLD 242008
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  AS IT COMES ACROSS SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
BREEZY CATERGORY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THE WINDY CATEGORY SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES THIS EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO
THE LACK OF LOWER LEVEL SATURATION IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA.  ALSO H8-7 LAYER MEAN RH IS ALSO LACKING.  WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.  WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY GOOD MIXING BUT CLEARING
SKIES AFTER 06Z WILL HELP WITH COOLING.  EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO
COOL TO THE LOWER 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL
TO REACH THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TRANSITION FROM A WARMER/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO ONE THAT IS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND
WILL HAVE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH SITTING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. MODELS DO SHIFT RIDGE
OFF THE ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION GOING INTO NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN. GOING INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION...BEGINNING THE COOLING DOWN OF TEMPS
TO NEAR NORMAL AS CAA RE-SURFACES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
PLAINS REGION BEHIND EXITING TROUGH TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY. THE
ARRIVAL OF SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BY FRIDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MODEL 925 MB TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL RANGE FROM +14C TO
+18C DURING PEAK WARMING...THEN TREND DOWNWARD INTO THE +5C TO +9C
RANGE MIDDAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER GOING
INTO THE MON/TUES TIMEFRAME WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER REGION...THESE
TEMPS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING NEAR 70F FOR BOTH
DAYS...WITH 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEXT WEDNESDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY...WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM NEAR 60F DOWN TO THE MID
30S...IN PART BY 2 WAVES OF COLD AIR ARRIVING WITH TROUGH PASSAGES.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH BEST
TIMEFRAME OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF SECOND
SYSTEM. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF CUTOFF OVER SW PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY THATS LIFTS NORTH AS H5 RIDGE GOES EASTWARD. THE
TROUGH REMNANTS THEN SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AS FIRST SHORTWAVE.
RUNNING INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVEMENT OVER MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
THIS SYSTEM DRY OVER THE CWA. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INFLUX WITH CUTOFF OVER THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TO BRING SL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY TO WARRANT MENTION OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS IN SPOTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
ACCUM INCH OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGLD ACCORDING TO THE KGLD POINT
SOUNDING. HOWEVER, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT CLOUD BASES WILL GET
THAT LOW BASED ON LACK OF H8-7 RH. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KDDC 242004
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS BELOW A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BRINGING WESTERN KANSAS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TREKS UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONG
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WHERE AS THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A
DRIER PATTERN AND THE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO
THE PRESENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A FEW PLACES
COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY DIPPING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND AROUND 50
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
12-20 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  60  33  68 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  35  61  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  58  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  60  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  53  31  68 /  20   0   0   0
P28  38  57  31  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 242004
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS BELOW A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BRINGING WESTERN KANSAS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS
SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TREKS UP AND OVER THE RIDGE AND HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE GFS DEPICTS A STRONG
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WHERE AS THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF A
DRIER PATTERN AND THE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. I HAVE
PLACED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY CHANGE AS THIS STORM SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO
THE PRESENT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A FEW PLACES
COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ONLY DIPPING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND AROUND 50
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
12-20 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  60  33  68 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  35  61  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  58  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  60  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  53  31  68 /  20   0   0   0
P28  38  57  31  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 241812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
12-20 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  37  60  33 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  61  35  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  33  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  36  53  32 /  10  20   0   0
P28  64  38  57  32 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 241746
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1046 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PLAN TO UPDATE GRIDS AND ZONES SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGLD ACCORDING TO THE KGLD POINT
SOUNDING. HOWEVER, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT CLOUD BASES WILL GET
THAT LOW BASED ON LACK OF H8-7 RH. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241746
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1046 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PLAN TO UPDATE GRIDS AND ZONES SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGLD ACCORDING TO THE KGLD POINT
SOUNDING. HOWEVER, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT CLOUD BASES WILL GET
THAT LOW BASED ON LACK OF H8-7 RH. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241746
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1046 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PLAN TO UPDATE GRIDS AND ZONES SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGLD ACCORDING TO THE KGLD POINT
SOUNDING. HOWEVER, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT CLOUD BASES WILL GET
THAT LOW BASED ON LACK OF H8-7 RH. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241746
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1046 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

PLAN TO UPDATE GRIDS AND ZONES SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1038 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGLD ACCORDING TO THE KGLD POINT
SOUNDING. HOWEVER, AM NOT CONVINCED THAT CLOUD BASES WILL GET
THAT LOW BASED ON LACK OF H8-7 RH. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 241743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will
increase to 11 to 15 KTS with some gusts this afternoon. The wind gusts
will diminish after sunset. Northwest winds will increase to 14 to
17 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS after 12Z SUN. An upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for sprinkles or very light
showers across the terminals this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will
increase to 11 to 15 KTS with some gusts this afternoon. The wind gusts
will diminish after sunset. Northwest winds will increase to 14 to
17 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS after 12Z SUN. An upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for sprinkles or very light
showers across the terminals this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will
increase to 11 to 15 KTS with some gusts this afternoon. The wind gusts
will diminish after sunset. Northwest winds will increase to 14 to
17 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS after 12Z SUN. An upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for sprinkles or very light
showers across the terminals this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southwest winds will
increase to 11 to 15 KTS with some gusts this afternoon. The wind gusts
will diminish after sunset. Northwest winds will increase to 14 to
17 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS after 12Z SUN. An upper level
disturbance will bring a chance for sprinkles or very light
showers across the terminals this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KICT 241722
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1122 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD GET A NICE BOOST TODAY WITH PREMIUM DOWN
SLOPE EFFECTS IN PLAY FROM WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. MEANWHILE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE 1000-850MB
LAYER WILL TAP INTO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT MAKING FOR A WINDY
COOLER DAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS COULD APPROACH
70 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE-WED AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE HEARTLAND...HOWEVER COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. NOT EXPECTING A
MAJOR COOL DOWN THIS PERIOD BUT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
ARE PROJECTING MUCH COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY AFFECTING KANSAS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...STAY TUNED.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF WIND WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
KTS BEHIND IT AT THE SURFACE AND 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

WIND WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

KRC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  37  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  36  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  36  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        61  37  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  36  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      64  36  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          63  37  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  36  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  36  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         59  36  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            59  36  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 241722
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1122 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD GET A NICE BOOST TODAY WITH PREMIUM DOWN
SLOPE EFFECTS IN PLAY FROM WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. MEANWHILE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE 1000-850MB
LAYER WILL TAP INTO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT MAKING FOR A WINDY
COOLER DAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS COULD APPROACH
70 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE-WED AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE HEARTLAND...HOWEVER COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. NOT EXPECTING A
MAJOR COOL DOWN THIS PERIOD BUT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
ARE PROJECTING MUCH COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY AFFECTING KANSAS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...STAY TUNED.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE A GREAT DEAL OF WIND WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 35
KTS BEHIND IT AT THE SURFACE AND 50 TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR...NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

WIND WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

KRC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  37  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  36  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  36  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        61  37  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  36  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      64  36  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          63  37  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  36  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  36  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         59  36  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            59  36  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
12-20 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 241711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
12-20 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 241149
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
IOWA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY AT 10-15 KTS AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 241149
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING INTO
IOWA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS
TODAY AT 10-15 KTS AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 241144
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
444 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
PERHAPS AFTERNOON SPRINKLES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024



000
FXUS63 KGLD 241144
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
444 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AND
PERHAPS AFTERNOON SPRINKLES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with the wind speed/direction changes
being the main concern. Approaching wave from the north will
increase westerly winds above 10 kts as they back towards the
southwest during late afternoon. As cloud cover and disturbance
passes overhead, light sprinkles are possible however not likely
enough to mention. Some uncertainty on timing for wind shift to
northwest overnight as front approaches. Regardless northwest
winds gradually increase from 06Z to 12Z with gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN WITH FIRE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST
KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. WITH FUELS
BEING REPORTED AS CRITICAL, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR VERY HIGH
OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO OCCUR AND FOR PROBLEMS TO SPRING UP
QUICKLY.

TODAY THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH GENERALLY A WEST WIND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. ADDITIONALLY MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. SO THINK RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER OR
HUMIDITY A LITTLE LOWER, WE MAY SEE SOME VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONCERN. THE SYSTEM THOUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPS
AND IN TURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS POINT, MIN RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 PERCENT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with the wind speed/direction changes
being the main concern. Approaching wave from the north will
increase westerly winds above 10 kts as they back towards the
southwest during late afternoon. As cloud cover and disturbance
passes overhead, light sprinkles are possible however not likely
enough to mention. Some uncertainty on timing for wind shift to
northwest overnight as front approaches. Regardless northwest
winds gradually increase from 06Z to 12Z with gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN WITH FIRE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST
KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. WITH FUELS
BEING REPORTED AS CRITICAL, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR VERY HIGH
OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO OCCUR AND FOR PROBLEMS TO SPRING UP
QUICKLY.

TODAY THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH GENERALLY A WEST WIND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. ADDITIONALLY MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. SO THINK RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER OR
HUMIDITY A LITTLE LOWER, WE MAY SEE SOME VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONCERN. THE SYSTEM THOUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPS
AND IN TURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS POINT, MIN RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 PERCENT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with the wind speed/direction changes
being the main concern. Approaching wave from the north will
increase westerly winds above 10 kts as they back towards the
southwest during late afternoon. As cloud cover and disturbance
passes overhead, light sprinkles are possible however not likely
enough to mention. Some uncertainty on timing for wind shift to
northwest overnight as front approaches. Regardless northwest
winds gradually increase from 06Z to 12Z with gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN WITH FIRE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST
KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. WITH FUELS
BEING REPORTED AS CRITICAL, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR VERY HIGH
OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO OCCUR AND FOR PROBLEMS TO SPRING UP
QUICKLY.

TODAY THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH GENERALLY A WEST WIND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. ADDITIONALLY MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. SO THINK RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER OR
HUMIDITY A LITTLE LOWER, WE MAY SEE SOME VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONCERN. THE SYSTEM THOUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPS
AND IN TURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS POINT, MIN RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 PERCENT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241136
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with the wind speed/direction changes
being the main concern. Approaching wave from the north will
increase westerly winds above 10 kts as they back towards the
southwest during late afternoon. As cloud cover and disturbance
passes overhead, light sprinkles are possible however not likely
enough to mention. Some uncertainty on timing for wind shift to
northwest overnight as front approaches. Regardless northwest
winds gradually increase from 06Z to 12Z with gusts around 25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN WITH FIRE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST
KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. WITH FUELS
BEING REPORTED AS CRITICAL, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR VERY HIGH
OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO OCCUR AND FOR PROBLEMS TO SPRING UP
QUICKLY.

TODAY THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH GENERALLY A WEST WIND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. ADDITIONALLY MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. SO THINK RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER OR
HUMIDITY A LITTLE LOWER, WE MAY SEE SOME VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONCERN. THE SYSTEM THOUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPS
AND IN TURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS POINT, MIN RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 PERCENT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 241003
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
403 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Conditions are VFR through the period. Of note is a wind increase
late in the period as an upper wave crosses over far northeast
Kansas and increases winds northwest overnight. 67


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN WITH FIRE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST
KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. WITH FUELS
BEING REPORTED AS CRITICAL, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR VERY HIGH
OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO OCCUR AND FOR PROBLEMS TO SPRING UP
QUICKLY.

TODAY THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH GENERALLY A WEST WIND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. ADDITIONALLY MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. SO THINK RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER OR
HUMIDITY A LITTLE LOWER, WE MAY SEE SOME VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONCERN. THE SYSTEM THOUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPS
AND IN TURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS POINT, MIN RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 PERCENT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 241003
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
403 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Conditions are VFR through the period. Of note is a wind increase
late in the period as an upper wave crosses over far northeast
Kansas and increases winds northwest overnight. 67


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN WITH FIRE WEATHER AS THE FORECAST
KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. WITH FUELS
BEING REPORTED AS CRITICAL, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR VERY HIGH
OR EXTREME FIRE DANGER TO OCCUR AND FOR PROBLEMS TO SPRING UP
QUICKLY.

TODAY THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH GENERALLY A WEST WIND
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. ADDITIONALLY MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. SO THINK RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
WILL BE HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER OR
HUMIDITY A LITTLE LOWER, WE MAY SEE SOME VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
VERY DEEP THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TRANSPORT WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS.

A STORM SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONCERN. THE SYSTEM THOUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPS
AND IN TURN HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. AT THIS POINT, MIN RH VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 PERCENT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67
FIRE WEATHER...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KDDC 240952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KDDC 240952
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KGLD 240950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 240950
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240948
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240948
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240948
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240948
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BE LACKING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THE GROUND. WILL CARRY A MENTION OF A
FEW AFTERNOON SPRINKLES BUT OTHERWISE KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-45KTS WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
DUE TO VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NOT EXPECTING THOSE TO MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
VIRGA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN STRONGLY ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 70 DEGREES...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BUT STILL BELOW RECORDS
WHICH ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KICT 240948
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD GET A NICE BOOST TODAY WITH PREMIUM DOWN
SLOPE EFFECTS IN PLAY FROM WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. MEANWHILE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE 1000-850MB
LAYER WILL TAP INTO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT MAKING FOR A WINDY
COOLER DAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS COULD APPROACH
70 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE-WED AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE HEARTLAND...HOWEVER COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. NOT EXPECTING A
MAJOR COOL DOWN THIS PERIOD BUT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
ARE PROJECTING MUCH COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY AFFECTING KANSAS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...STAY TUNED.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT BY THE EVENING AND TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  37  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  36  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  36  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        61  37  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  36  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      64  36  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          63  37  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  36  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  36  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         59  36  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            59  36  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240948
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD GET A NICE BOOST TODAY WITH PREMIUM DOWN
SLOPE EFFECTS IN PLAY FROM WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. MEANWHILE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE 1000-850MB
LAYER WILL TAP INTO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT MAKING FOR A WINDY
COOLER DAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS COULD APPROACH
70 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE-WED AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE HEARTLAND...HOWEVER COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. NOT EXPECTING A
MAJOR COOL DOWN THIS PERIOD BUT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
ARE PROJECTING MUCH COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY AFFECTING KANSAS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...STAY TUNED.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...BREEZY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT BY THE EVENING AND TURN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  37  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  36  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  36  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        61  37  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  36  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      64  36  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          63  37  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  36  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  36  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         59  36  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            59  36  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 240910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 240910
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS CONTINUING
TO BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN
STATES WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS A DRY PATTERN
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TRAVERSING THE SKIES OVER WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. BASED ON COMPARISON OF MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND ACTUAL RECORDED DAYTIME HIGHS, THE SHORT TERM MODELS
HAVE TENDED TO UNDERESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT OCCURS IN THESE
DOWNSLOPE REGIMES. FOR TODAY WE HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGING FROM NEAR 60 ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO THE MID 60S
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP13 ARE ALSO SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THIS RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER RANGING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  61  34  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  38  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  64  36  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KICT 240908
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD GET A NICE BOOST TODAY WITH PREMIUM DOWN
SLOPE EFFECTS IN PLAY FROM WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. MEANWHILE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE 1000-850MB
LAYER WILL TAP INTO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT MAKING FOR A WINDY
COOLER DAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS COULD APPROACH
70 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE-WED AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE HEARTLAND...HOWEVER COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. NOT EXPECTING A
MAJOR COOL DOWN THIS PERIOD BUT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
ARE PROJECTING MUCH COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY AFFECTING KANSAS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...STAY TUNED.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE KS TURNPIKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES....EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  37  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  36  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  36  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        61  37  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  36  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      64  36  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          63  37  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  36  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  36  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         59  36  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            59  36  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 240908
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD GET A NICE BOOST TODAY WITH PREMIUM DOWN
SLOPE EFFECTS IN PLAY FROM WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. MEANWHILE A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL RACE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE
ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...DEEP ADIABATIC MIXING IN THE 1000-850MB
LAYER WILL TAP INTO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT MAKING FOR A WINDY
COOLER DAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN DOWN SLOPE
EFFECTS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...AND SOME LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS COULD APPROACH
70 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE-WED AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE HEARTLAND...HOWEVER COOLER AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
PATTERN CHANGES INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. NOT EXPECTING A
MAJOR COOL DOWN THIS PERIOD BUT SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
ARE PROJECTING MUCH COLDER AIR EVENTUALLY AFFECTING KANSAS BY NEXT
WEEKEND...STAY TUNED.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE KS TURNPIKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES....EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  37  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  36  51  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  36  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        61  37  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  36  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  36  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      64  36  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          63  37  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  36  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  36  52  31 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         59  36  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            59  36  49  29 /   0   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  35  51  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 240903
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
303 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Clear skies across northeast Kansas this morning as the area was
in the middle of two separate systems. The main upper trough
impacting the eastern CONUS is progressing eastward, while
northwest flow aloft across the plains is beginning to bring the
next shortwave trough southward into ND later this AM.

After lows in the upper 20s this morning, temperatures will quickly
rebound as increasing west to northwest downslope winds carry warm
h85 temps near 6C towards the CWA. Sided closer to the MOS guidance
which has trended a bit warmer than model blends with readings in
the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Fire weather concerns reside over
north central portions of the CWA as minimum humidity values fall to
the upper 20 percentile in the late afternoon. Combined with sfc
westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph sustained may lead to high or very
high fire danger from noon through 5 pm.

For this evening, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to drop
south and east, with the axis pivoting eastern Nebraska into Iowa by
06Z. An upper jet streak rounding the upper ridge strengthens the low
as it crosses over portions of far northeast and east central areas.
With the exception of the NAM, all short term guidance indicates
light rain showers or sprinkles developing late this evening.
Chances are only slight however as moisture availability is shallow
around 4 KFT and short lived as the system quickly exits southeast.
Confidence is much higher in the stronger winds as direction shifts
to the northwest between 15 and 20 mph, gusting to near 25 mph
through the morning period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

By Sunday morning, models suggest the stronger forcing will have
pushed south and east of the forecast area and as a result show
little or no vertical motion. Even the ECMWF shows the PV anomaly
and stronger PVA southeast of the forecast area, so I`m not sure
why it is generating some very light QPF. In any case do not
expect measurable precip and have left POPs at 10 percent across
the eastern portion of the forecast area. Temps Sunday are looking
cooler than previously forecast. Think this in part due to
increasing clouds limiting insolation and modest cold air
advection. With this in mind, have trended Highs for Sunday down
into the mid and upper 40s.

The weather is expected to be uneventful for Sunday night through
Friday. Models continue to show energy that is left over the Baja
of California being picked up by the mean flow and coming across
the plains Wednesday night. However they persist in tracking the
stronger forcing north of the forecast area while deep moisture
remains limited. Because of this, have kept a dry forecast. There
is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF by Friday night in
shortwave energy diving south along the Rockies. This leads to a
possible winter storm developing in one solution while the lack of
shortwave energy keeps the region dry. At this point, any
potential storm system looks to impact the region after Friday
night. So this will be something to watch in coming model runs.

Temps should remain above normal for Monday through Wednesday as
Ridging aloft over the west gradually shifts over the plains. An
initial cold front and northerly winds for Thursday and Friday
should cool temps closer to seasonal norms. A stronger surge of
Canadian air is progged to sweep through the plains Saturday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Conditions are VFR through the period. Of note is a wind increase
late in the period as an upper wave crosses over far northeast
Kansas and increases winds northwest overnight. 67


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KGLD 240848
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240848
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240848
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240848
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WARM WEATHER DOMINATES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING EVIDENT THAT THIS WARMTH WILL
NOT LAST FOREVER...COMING TO AN END BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF A
LARGE PATTERN CHANGE.

BEGINNING WITH TUESDAY...FORECAST GUIDANCE TRENDED WARMER ONCE AGAIN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS. GEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 2
DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND ECE/MEX ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...FEEL MAX TEMPS
NEEDED TO BE WARMED. TUESDAY`S FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL RH FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE A VERY NARROW BAND
OF NEAR TO JUST BELOW SATURATION AND FEEL THAT THIS SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

A COOLING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES.
INSTEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATING THE HIGH PLAINS...THE
RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...A STRONG CLIPPER PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT IS
FORCED THROUGH BY THE CLIPPER...BRINGING COOLER WEATHER...ALBEIT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PERSIST...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER
DISTURBANCE FORCES ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...
POSSIBLY BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND A
DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. IT APPEARS MORE
LIKELY THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WINS FOR OUR WEATHER. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH...POSSIBLY WITH A CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRODUCED BY
THE CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE. OVERALL...A SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNLESS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. CUT-OFF LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240548
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FA.  DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH
THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, OTHER THAN
SOME SILENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE NIL.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF 35KT GUSTS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A REQUIRE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY TO
THE MID 60S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  SYSTEMS ARE EITHER TOO FAR NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FA.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID
30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MINS IN
THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240548
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FA.  DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH
THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, OTHER THAN
SOME SILENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE NIL.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF 35KT GUSTS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A REQUIRE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY TO
THE MID 60S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  SYSTEMS ARE EITHER TOO FAR NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FA.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID
30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MINS IN
THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240548
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FA.  DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH
THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, OTHER THAN
SOME SILENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE NIL.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF 35KT GUSTS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A REQUIRE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY TO
THE MID 60S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  SYSTEMS ARE EITHER TOO FAR NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FA.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID
30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MINS IN
THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240548
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FA.  DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH
THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, OTHER THAN
SOME SILENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE NIL.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF 35KT GUSTS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A REQUIRE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY TO
THE MID 60S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  SYSTEMS ARE EITHER TOO FAR NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FA.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID
30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MINS IN
THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z ALONG WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AGAIN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KTOP 240530
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1130 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A weak upper level trough across the upper Midwest will dig
southeast into the mid MS river valley and phase with a more intense
southern stream upper trough moving east out of TX. The resulting
amplified upper trough across the east central conus will keep the
plains in northwesterly flow aloft.

This evening, as the weak positive tilt upper trough axis shifts
southeast across the eastern plains, the stronger ascent will cause
a period of mid-level clouds to develop. As the H5 trough axis
shifts southeast of the area skies will clear through the early
morning hours. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid to upper
20s as west-northwest winds will remain around 5 MPH.

Saturday, an upper level trough over western Canada will dig
southeast into the the northern high plains. Ahead of the the upper
trough, southwesterly surface winds will allow highs to warm into
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Even though 850mb temperatures
will warm to around 6 degrees, the mixed boundary layer will only
reach about 930mb. Dry fuels and southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 MPH
with some higher gusts will cause at least a high fire danger across
the CWA Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

The extended period of the forecast will be noted by a continuation
of mild temperatures and predominantly dry conditions.  By Saturday
night, a broad mid-level trough will be situated over the central
and eastern U.S. with a mid-level ridge along the Pacific coastline.
Models show an embedded shortwave trough developing over the
Northern Plains Saturday night and sliding southeastward across the
Midwest through Sunday. The better moisture and lift from this wave
should be focused northeast of the forecast area. However, both the
GFS and ECMWF show the potential for some light precipitation to
skim across northeast Kansas, with model soundings showing
increasing saturation in the mid-levels with dry conditions in the
low-levels. As a result, the mention of sprinkles has been added for
Saturday evening before the wave shifts east of the area.  A decent
pressure gradient is expected to set up over the area on Sunday as
the associated surface low passes just to the east, resulting in
breezy northwesterly winds with gusts upwards of 25-35mph. There
doesn`t look to be much in the way of caa behind this wave, so
temperatures should only be a few degrees cooler on Sunday with
highs in the low/mid 50s.

The region will remain under northwesterly flow aloft through
Tuesday as the mid-level trough remains anchored over the eastern
U.S. and the mid-level ridge slides eastward toward the Rockies and
the High Plains. Trended warmer for Monday with highs in the upper
50s/low 60s as a thermal ridge should develop over the Rockies and
High Plains. Slightly cooler conditions expected for Tuesday as
surface high pressure advances into the area.

By mid-week, models show a wave originating near the Baja peninsula
and tracking northeastward, however models continue to keep the wave
and any associated precipitation north of the forecast area. If this
wave were to track a bit further south, then there may be a slight
chance for some light precipitation, however have kept a dry
forecast for now.  This advancing wave will push an area of surface
low pressure into the Northern and Central Plains by Wednesday,
resulting in southwesterly winds and temperatures rising back into
the 60s.  The weak cold front associated with this system will track
south of the area by Thursday morning. While this frontal passage looks to
be dry across the area, it will be accompanied by cooler air in
which cold-air advection will likely bump high temperatures back
down into the 40s for Thursday and Friday. Models are showing split
flow by the end of the week/early next weekend in which 2 waves may
converge near the forecast area and potentially bring some light
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Conditions are VFR through the period. Of note is a wind increase
late in the period as an upper wave crosses over far northeast
Kansas and increases winds northwest overnight. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 240530
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1130 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A weak upper level trough across the upper Midwest will dig
southeast into the mid MS river valley and phase with a more intense
southern stream upper trough moving east out of TX. The resulting
amplified upper trough across the east central conus will keep the
plains in northwesterly flow aloft.

This evening, as the weak positive tilt upper trough axis shifts
southeast across the eastern plains, the stronger ascent will cause
a period of mid-level clouds to develop. As the H5 trough axis
shifts southeast of the area skies will clear through the early
morning hours. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid to upper
20s as west-northwest winds will remain around 5 MPH.

Saturday, an upper level trough over western Canada will dig
southeast into the the northern high plains. Ahead of the the upper
trough, southwesterly surface winds will allow highs to warm into
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Even though 850mb temperatures
will warm to around 6 degrees, the mixed boundary layer will only
reach about 930mb. Dry fuels and southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 MPH
with some higher gusts will cause at least a high fire danger across
the CWA Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

The extended period of the forecast will be noted by a continuation
of mild temperatures and predominantly dry conditions.  By Saturday
night, a broad mid-level trough will be situated over the central
and eastern U.S. with a mid-level ridge along the Pacific coastline.
Models show an embedded shortwave trough developing over the
Northern Plains Saturday night and sliding southeastward across the
Midwest through Sunday. The better moisture and lift from this wave
should be focused northeast of the forecast area. However, both the
GFS and ECMWF show the potential for some light precipitation to
skim across northeast Kansas, with model soundings showing
increasing saturation in the mid-levels with dry conditions in the
low-levels. As a result, the mention of sprinkles has been added for
Saturday evening before the wave shifts east of the area.  A decent
pressure gradient is expected to set up over the area on Sunday as
the associated surface low passes just to the east, resulting in
breezy northwesterly winds with gusts upwards of 25-35mph. There
doesn`t look to be much in the way of caa behind this wave, so
temperatures should only be a few degrees cooler on Sunday with
highs in the low/mid 50s.

The region will remain under northwesterly flow aloft through
Tuesday as the mid-level trough remains anchored over the eastern
U.S. and the mid-level ridge slides eastward toward the Rockies and
the High Plains. Trended warmer for Monday with highs in the upper
50s/low 60s as a thermal ridge should develop over the Rockies and
High Plains. Slightly cooler conditions expected for Tuesday as
surface high pressure advances into the area.

By mid-week, models show a wave originating near the Baja peninsula
and tracking northeastward, however models continue to keep the wave
and any associated precipitation north of the forecast area. If this
wave were to track a bit further south, then there may be a slight
chance for some light precipitation, however have kept a dry
forecast for now.  This advancing wave will push an area of surface
low pressure into the Northern and Central Plains by Wednesday,
resulting in southwesterly winds and temperatures rising back into
the 60s.  The weak cold front associated with this system will track
south of the area by Thursday morning. While this frontal passage looks to
be dry across the area, it will be accompanied by cooler air in
which cold-air advection will likely bump high temperatures back
down into the 40s for Thursday and Friday. Models are showing split
flow by the end of the week/early next weekend in which 2 waves may
converge near the forecast area and potentially bring some light
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

Conditions are VFR through the period. Of note is a wind increase
late in the period as an upper wave crosses over far northeast
Kansas and increases winds northwest overnight. 67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KDDC 240527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 MPH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOT
AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WARMER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM TUMBLING AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WESTERLY. HIGHS WILL
ZOOM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 8
CELSIUS WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE MIXING. THE ELKHART AREA MY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE MID 50S WITH WINDS BLOWING OVER RESIDUAL SNOW PACK TO
THE WEST OF THEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  53  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  56  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  58  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  29  61  35  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KICT 240344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DRAPED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
TEXAS. KANSAS IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANOTHER SMALL/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE
CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE THEME FOR THE WEEKEND IS WARM...WITH HIGHS 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH. THESE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE SOME CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE
WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. THEN BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. BY MONDAY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE WARMING TREND STAYS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER...AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY DRY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE KS TURNPIKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES....EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  59  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  58  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  60  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  59  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26  57  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  58  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DRAPED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
TEXAS. KANSAS IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANOTHER SMALL/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE
CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE THEME FOR THE WEEKEND IS WARM...WITH HIGHS 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH. THESE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE SOME CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE
WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. THEN BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. BY MONDAY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE WARMING TREND STAYS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER...AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY DRY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE KS TURNPIKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES....EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  59  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  58  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  60  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  59  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26  57  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  58  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DRAPED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
TEXAS. KANSAS IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANOTHER SMALL/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE
CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE THEME FOR THE WEEKEND IS WARM...WITH HIGHS 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH. THESE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE SOME CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE
WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. THEN BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. BY MONDAY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE WARMING TREND STAYS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER...AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY DRY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE KS TURNPIKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES....EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  59  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  58  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  60  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  59  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26  57  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  58  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DRAPED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
TEXAS. KANSAS IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANOTHER SMALL/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE
CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE THEME FOR THE WEEKEND IS WARM...WITH HIGHS 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH. THESE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE SOME CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE
WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. THEN BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. BY MONDAY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE WARMING TREND STAYS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER...AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY DRY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE KS TURNPIKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES....EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  59  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  58  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  60  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  59  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26  57  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  58  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DRAPED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
TEXAS. KANSAS IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANOTHER SMALL/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE
CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE THEME FOR THE WEEKEND IS WARM...WITH HIGHS 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH. THESE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE SOME CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE
WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. THEN BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. BY MONDAY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE WARMING TREND STAYS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER...AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY DRY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE KS TURNPIKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES....EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  59  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  58  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  60  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  59  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26  57  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  58  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 240344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DRAPED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
TEXAS. KANSAS IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANOTHER SMALL/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE
CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE THEME FOR THE WEEKEND IS WARM...WITH HIGHS 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH. THESE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE SOME CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE
WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. THEN BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. BY MONDAY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE WARMING TREND STAYS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER...AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY DRY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE KS TURNPIKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST KS.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES....EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  59  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  58  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  60  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  59  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26  57  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  58  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FA.  DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH
THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, OTHER THAN
SOME SILENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE NIL.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF 35KT GUSTS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A REQUIRE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY TO
THE MID 60S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  SYSTEMS ARE EITHER TOO FAR NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FA.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID
30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MINS IN
THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GLD AND MCK TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER
06Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTER ABOUT 16Z AS STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FA.  DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH
THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, OTHER THAN
SOME SILENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE NIL.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF 35KT GUSTS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A REQUIRE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY TO
THE MID 60S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  SYSTEMS ARE EITHER TOO FAR NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FA.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID
30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MINS IN
THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GLD AND MCK TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER
06Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTER ABOUT 16Z AS STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FA.  DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH
THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, OTHER THAN
SOME SILENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE NIL.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF 35KT GUSTS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A REQUIRE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY TO
THE MID 60S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  SYSTEMS ARE EITHER TOO FAR NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FA.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID
30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MINS IN
THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GLD AND MCK TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER
06Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTER ABOUT 16Z AS STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 240005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FA.  DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH
THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, OTHER THAN
SOME SILENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE NIL.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF 35KT GUSTS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A REQUIRE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY TO
THE MID 60S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  SYSTEMS ARE EITHER TOO FAR NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FA.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID
30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MINS IN
THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GLD AND MCK TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER
06Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTER ABOUT 16Z AS STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KDDC 232346
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
546 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 MPH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOT
AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WARMER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM TUMBLING AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WESTERLY. HIGHS WILL
ZOOM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 8
CELSIUS WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE MIXING. THE ELKHART AREA MY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE MID 50S WITH WINDS BLOWING OVER RESIDUAL SNOW PACK TO
THE WEST OF THEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  53  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  56  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  58  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  29  61  35  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 232346
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
546 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 MPH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOT
AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WARMER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM TUMBLING AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WESTERLY. HIGHS WILL
ZOOM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 8
CELSIUS WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE MIXING. THE ELKHART AREA MY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE MID 50S WITH WINDS BLOWING OVER RESIDUAL SNOW PACK TO
THE WEST OF THEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  53  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  56  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  58  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  29  61  35  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 232346
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
546 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 MPH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOT
AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WARMER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM TUMBLING AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WESTERLY. HIGHS WILL
ZOOM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 8
CELSIUS WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE MIXING. THE ELKHART AREA MY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE MID 50S WITH WINDS BLOWING OVER RESIDUAL SNOW PACK TO
THE WEST OF THEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  53  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  56  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  58  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  29  61  35  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 232346
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
546 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE PLAINS
INTO SATURDAY. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12 MPH. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOT
AS COLD WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WARMER NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM TUMBLING AS MUCH AS LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING WESTERLY. HIGHS WILL
ZOOM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 8
CELSIUS WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE MIXING. THE ELKHART AREA MY BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE MID 50S WITH WINDS BLOWING OVER RESIDUAL SNOW PACK TO
THE WEST OF THEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY, A LACK
OF MOISTURE FROM A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL HINDER ANY PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY EVEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED EARLIER SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO FILTER DOWN INTO
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO 0C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH NEAR 5C ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F)
UP NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH THE 60S(F) STILL POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY HELP WARM UP
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME MONDAY AS A NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 ARE
PROJECTED TO CLIMB UP TO AROUND 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR
15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ACCOMPANIED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE,
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 70F
IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LEE
SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HELPS INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHIFTING
TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  58  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  57  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  53  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  56  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  58  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  29  61  35  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KICT 232342
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DRAPED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
TEXAS. KANSAS IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANOTHER SMALL/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE
CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE THEME FOR THE WEEKEND IS WARM...WITH HIGHS 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH. THESE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE SOME CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE
WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. THEN BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. BY MONDAY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE WARMING TREND STAYS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER...AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY DRY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A  SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  59  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  58  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  60  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  59  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26  57  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  58  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 232342
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
542 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DRAPED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO
TEXAS. KANSAS IS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. ANOTHER SMALL/WEAK WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
CAUSING A WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS ARE
CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE THEME FOR THE WEEKEND IS WARM...WITH HIGHS 15 TO NEARLY 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH. THESE RIPPLES WILL
CAUSE SOME CHANGES IN THE WIND FIELDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE
WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. THEN BREEZIER NORTHERLY WINDS
SUNDAY WILL STUNT THE WARMING TREND...BUT KEEP UPPER 50S FOR
HIGHS. BY MONDAY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN AND
HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE WARMING TREND STAYS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
HOWEVER...AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL FLATTEN
OUT AND A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING AND WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TO STAY DRY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A  SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES...EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  59  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  60  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        29  58  37  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   27  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          29  60  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  59  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     27  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  58  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26  57  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    26  58  35  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 232320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A weak upper level trough across the upper Midwest will dig
southeast into the mid MS river valley and phase with a more intense
southern stream upper trough moving east out of TX. The resulting
amplified upper trough across the east central conus will keep the
plains in northwesterly flow aloft.

This evening, as the weak positive tilt upper trough axis shifts
southeast across the eastern plains, the stronger ascent will cause
a period of mid-level clouds to develop. As the H5 trough axis
shifts southeast of the area skies will clear through the early
morning hours. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid to upper
20s as west-northwest winds will remain around 5 MPH.

Saturday, an upper level trough over western Canada will dig
southeast into the the northern high plains. Ahead of the the upper
trough, southwesterly surface winds will allow highs to warm into
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Even though 850mb temperatures
will warm to around 6 degrees, the mixed boundary layer will only
reach about 930mb. Dry fuels and southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 MPH
with some higher gusts will cause at least a high fire danger across
the CWA Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

The extended period of the forecast will be noted by a continuation
of mild temperatures and predominantly dry conditions.  By Saturday
night, a broad mid-level trough will be situated over the central
and eastern U.S. with a mid-level ridge along the Pacific coastline.
Models show an embedded shortwave trough developing over the
Northern Plains Saturday night and sliding southeastward across the
Midwest through Sunday. The better moisture and lift from this wave
should be focused northeast of the forecast area. However, both the
GFS and ECMWF show the potential for some light precipitation to
skim across northeast Kansas, with model soundings showing
increasing saturation in the mid-levels with dry conditions in the
low-levels. As a result, the mention of sprinkles has been added for
Saturday evening before the wave shifts east of the area.  A decent
pressure gradient is expected to set up over the area on Sunday as
the associated surface low passes just to the east, resulting in
breezy northwesterly winds with gusts upwards of 25-35mph. There
doesn`t look to be much in the way of caa behind this wave, so
temperatures should only be a few degrees cooler on Sunday with
highs in the low/mid 50s.

The region will remain under northwesterly flow aloft through
Tuesday as the mid-level trough remains anchored over the eastern
U.S. and the mid-level ridge slides eastward toward the Rockies and
the High Plains. Trended warmer for Monday with highs in the upper
50s/low 60s as a thermal ridge should develop over the Rockies and
High Plains. Slightly cooler conditions expected for Tuesday as
surface high pressure advances into the area.

By mid-week, models show a wave originating near the Baja peninsula
and tracking northeastward, however models continue to keep the wave
and any associated precipitation north of the forecast area. If this
wave were to track a bit further south, then there may be a slight
chance for some light precipitation, however have kept a dry
forecast for now.  This advancing wave will push an area of surface
low pressure into the Northern and Central Plains by Wednesday,
resulting in southwesterly winds and temperatures rising back into
the 60s.  The weak cold front associated with this system will track
south of the area by Thursday morning. While this frontal passage looks to
be dry across the area, it will be accompanied by cooler air in
which cold-air advection will likely bump high temperatures back
down into the 40s for Thursday and Friday. Models are showing split
flow by the end of the week/early next weekend in which 2 waves may
converge near the forecast area and potentially bring some light
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Wind shifts from west
to northwest then back again with clouds aoa 10kft. May see a few
sprinkles tonight but not enough worth a prevailing group.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KTOP 232320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
520 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

A weak upper level trough across the upper Midwest will dig
southeast into the mid MS river valley and phase with a more intense
southern stream upper trough moving east out of TX. The resulting
amplified upper trough across the east central conus will keep the
plains in northwesterly flow aloft.

This evening, as the weak positive tilt upper trough axis shifts
southeast across the eastern plains, the stronger ascent will cause
a period of mid-level clouds to develop. As the H5 trough axis
shifts southeast of the area skies will clear through the early
morning hours. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid to upper
20s as west-northwest winds will remain around 5 MPH.

Saturday, an upper level trough over western Canada will dig
southeast into the the northern high plains. Ahead of the the upper
trough, southwesterly surface winds will allow highs to warm into
the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. Even though 850mb temperatures
will warm to around 6 degrees, the mixed boundary layer will only
reach about 930mb. Dry fuels and southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 MPH
with some higher gusts will cause at least a high fire danger across
the CWA Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

The extended period of the forecast will be noted by a continuation
of mild temperatures and predominantly dry conditions.  By Saturday
night, a broad mid-level trough will be situated over the central
and eastern U.S. with a mid-level ridge along the Pacific coastline.
Models show an embedded shortwave trough developing over the
Northern Plains Saturday night and sliding southeastward across the
Midwest through Sunday. The better moisture and lift from this wave
should be focused northeast of the forecast area. However, both the
GFS and ECMWF show the potential for some light precipitation to
skim across northeast Kansas, with model soundings showing
increasing saturation in the mid-levels with dry conditions in the
low-levels. As a result, the mention of sprinkles has been added for
Saturday evening before the wave shifts east of the area.  A decent
pressure gradient is expected to set up over the area on Sunday as
the associated surface low passes just to the east, resulting in
breezy northwesterly winds with gusts upwards of 25-35mph. There
doesn`t look to be much in the way of caa behind this wave, so
temperatures should only be a few degrees cooler on Sunday with
highs in the low/mid 50s.

The region will remain under northwesterly flow aloft through
Tuesday as the mid-level trough remains anchored over the eastern
U.S. and the mid-level ridge slides eastward toward the Rockies and
the High Plains. Trended warmer for Monday with highs in the upper
50s/low 60s as a thermal ridge should develop over the Rockies and
High Plains. Slightly cooler conditions expected for Tuesday as
surface high pressure advances into the area.

By mid-week, models show a wave originating near the Baja peninsula
and tracking northeastward, however models continue to keep the wave
and any associated precipitation north of the forecast area. If this
wave were to track a bit further south, then there may be a slight
chance for some light precipitation, however have kept a dry
forecast for now.  This advancing wave will push an area of surface
low pressure into the Northern and Central Plains by Wednesday,
resulting in southwesterly winds and temperatures rising back into
the 60s.  The weak cold front associated with this system will track
south of the area by Thursday morning. While this frontal passage looks to
be dry across the area, it will be accompanied by cooler air in
which cold-air advection will likely bump high temperatures back
down into the 40s for Thursday and Friday. Models are showing split
flow by the end of the week/early next weekend in which 2 waves may
converge near the forecast area and potentially bring some light
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR conditions expected through the period. Wind shifts from west
to northwest then back again with clouds aoa 10kft. May see a few
sprinkles tonight but not enough worth a prevailing group.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67






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