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000
FXUS63 KGLD 050912
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
312 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION RANGED
FROM CLEAR TO OVERCAST AS WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ALL STORMS REMAIN
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST SATELLITE FOG
IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS A BAND OF FOG AND STRATUS STRETCHING FROM HOLYOKE
AND WRAY COLORADO...CLIPPING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AND INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH AN AREA OF DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING
OVERHEAD.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS THE DENSE FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS DEVELOPING AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AFTER SUNRISE...FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. IT WAS TOUGH TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT RESIDUAL FOG/STRATUS WOULD HAVE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
DID LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO
ANTICIPATED LINGERING STRATUS. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD THIS
EVENING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE A SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS BUT DO NOT FEEL
THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WOULD AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE THURSDAY MORNING. INPUT PATCHY FOG INTO THE
FORECAST. BY AFTERNOON...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SLIDE
THROUGH. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ALOFT AND LOWERED INSTABILITY DO NOT
SUGGEST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS WITH LAST
NIGHT`S FORECAST...DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT OR IMPRESSED WITH STORM
CHANCES THURSDAY. DECIDED TO ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM MENTION FROM
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ANTICIPATED. WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...INSTABILITY INCREASES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS APPROACH/EXCEED 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO NEAR 50 KTS...SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
MENTIONED SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE
FORECAST RUNS AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE TRI
STATE AREA IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOIST
AIR IN THE PROFILE DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SO HEAVY RAIN IN DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE.  CAPE VALUES AT AND ABOVE 1000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
SHEARING WINDS LOOKS TO BE LACKING AT THE MOMENT DUE TO THE ABSENCE
OF ANY POTENTIAL JET ENERGY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
RETROGRADING AND INCREASING IN AMPLITUDE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ADVECT PLENTY
OF MOIST AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BRING HEAT INDEXES UP INTO
THE MID 90S AT TIMES.  A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH
IS ONLY A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY END THIS MORNING AS FOG DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT KMCK THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO ALREADY OBSERVED THIS
EVENING. KGLD SHOULD EXPECT A LATER ARRIVAL FOR THE FOG AND A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. FOG BURNS OFF BY LATE
MORNING BUT SOME LINGERING STRATUS MAY BE A PROBLEM AS FOG LIFTS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
WINDS PERSISTING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



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000
FXUS63 KTOP 050828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD.  STORMS GETTING A
BOOST FROM 850 JET AROUND 25KTS AND MOVING SE ALONG BETTER
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THEY PASS...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF
HAIL IN STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GAIN SOME ROTATION IN BETTER
SHEAR AXIS ALSO IN A NW TO SE LINE.

THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...STORMS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
THIS KEEPS SCATTERED TO LIKELY COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS.  WOULD ANTICIPATE CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE AND HAVE TAPERED PRECIP CHANCES AS SUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH CHANCE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ADDITIONALLY WITH SUNSHINE...HAZARDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH.  HIGHS WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO THE 60S AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND
COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE SHOULD BRING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY. A MODIFIED COLD FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT ENOUGH OF A
LOWER/MID LEVEL RESPONSE FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 18C FOR A DECENT STORM CHANCE.
HEIGHTS THEN RISE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS WILL AID ANY CONVECTION COMING EAST
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK FRONT COMING THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH
ANTICIPATE THIS COULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODEST SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT OF KMHK SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KTOP/KFOE BY 06Z. FOCUS TURNS TO WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM IMPACTS TERMINALS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AFT 09Z
WITH THE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AIDING IN MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
CLEARING IMPROVES CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN VFR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 050828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD.  STORMS GETTING A
BOOST FROM 850 JET AROUND 25KTS AND MOVING SE ALONG BETTER
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THEY PASS...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF
HAIL IN STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GAIN SOME ROTATION IN BETTER
SHEAR AXIS ALSO IN A NW TO SE LINE.

THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...STORMS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
THIS KEEPS SCATTERED TO LIKELY COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS.  WOULD ANTICIPATE CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE AND HAVE TAPERED PRECIP CHANCES AS SUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH CHANCE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ADDITIONALLY WITH SUNSHINE...HAZARDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH.  HIGHS WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO THE 60S AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND
COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE SHOULD BRING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY. A MODIFIED COLD FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT ENOUGH OF A
LOWER/MID LEVEL RESPONSE FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 18C FOR A DECENT STORM CHANCE.
HEIGHTS THEN RISE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS WILL AID ANY CONVECTION COMING EAST
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK FRONT COMING THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH
ANTICIPATE THIS COULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODEST SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT OF KMHK SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KTOP/KFOE BY 06Z. FOCUS TURNS TO WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM IMPACTS TERMINALS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AFT 09Z
WITH THE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AIDING IN MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
CLEARING IMPROVES CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN VFR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 050828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD.  STORMS GETTING A
BOOST FROM 850 JET AROUND 25KTS AND MOVING SE ALONG BETTER
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THEY PASS...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF
HAIL IN STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GAIN SOME ROTATION IN BETTER
SHEAR AXIS ALSO IN A NW TO SE LINE.

THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...STORMS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
THIS KEEPS SCATTERED TO LIKELY COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS.  WOULD ANTICIPATE CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE AND HAVE TAPERED PRECIP CHANCES AS SUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH CHANCE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ADDITIONALLY WITH SUNSHINE...HAZARDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH.  HIGHS WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO THE 60S AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND
COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE SHOULD BRING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY. A MODIFIED COLD FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT ENOUGH OF A
LOWER/MID LEVEL RESPONSE FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 18C FOR A DECENT STORM CHANCE.
HEIGHTS THEN RISE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS WILL AID ANY CONVECTION COMING EAST
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK FRONT COMING THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH
ANTICIPATE THIS COULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODEST SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT OF KMHK SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KTOP/KFOE BY 06Z. FOCUS TURNS TO WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM IMPACTS TERMINALS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AFT 09Z
WITH THE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AIDING IN MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
CLEARING IMPROVES CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN VFR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 050828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD.  STORMS GETTING A
BOOST FROM 850 JET AROUND 25KTS AND MOVING SE ALONG BETTER
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STORMS ARE
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THEY PASS...WITH A FEW REPORTS OF
HAIL IN STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GAIN SOME ROTATION IN BETTER
SHEAR AXIS ALSO IN A NW TO SE LINE.

THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...STORMS PROGGED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AS WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST.
THIS KEEPS SCATTERED TO LIKELY COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FOR
THE MORNING HOURS.  WOULD ANTICIPATE CLEARING WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE WAVE AND HAVE TAPERED PRECIP CHANCES AS SUCH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH CHANCE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ADDITIONALLY WITH SUNSHINE...HAZARDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH.  HIGHS WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO THE 60S AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND
COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE STATE SHOULD BRING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY, LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY. A MODIFIED COLD FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
PASSES EAST OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT ENOUGH OF A
LOWER/MID LEVEL RESPONSE FOR DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 18C FOR A DECENT STORM CHANCE.
HEIGHTS THEN RISE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS WILL AID ANY CONVECTION COMING EAST
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR STORMS.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A WEAK FRONT COMING THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH
ANTICIPATE THIS COULD BE WARMEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST IN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MODEST SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING A DRIER AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT OF KMHK SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KTOP/KFOE BY 06Z. FOCUS TURNS TO WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM IMPACTS TERMINALS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AFT 09Z
WITH THE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AIDING IN MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
CLEARING IMPROVES CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN VFR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050817
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE CLEARING REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH SHORTLY AS VERY
COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AFTER THE STORMS PASSAGE. WITH SUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURRING AND AT LEAST LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT THINK BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES
IS NOW OVER. WILL BE FOCUSING ON FOG RISK TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THINGS TO START MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PRECONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE TRI
STATE AREA IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOIST
AIR IN THE PROFILE DURING THE PERIOD BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES FOR
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SO HEAVY RAIN IN DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE.  CAPE VALUES AT AND ABOVE 1000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
SHEARING WINDS LOOKS TO BE LACKING AT THE MOMENT DUE TO THE ABSENCE
OF ANY POTENTIAL JET ENERGY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STATIONARY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
RETROGRADING AND INCREASING IN AMPLITUDE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL ADVECT PLENTY
OF MOIST AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BRING HEAT INDEXES UP INTO
THE MID 90S AT TIMES.  A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH
IS ONLY A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY END THIS MORNING AS FOG DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT KMCK THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO ALREADY OBSERVED THIS
EVENING. KGLD SHOULD EXPECT A LATER ARRIVAL FOR THE FOG AND A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. FOG BURNS OFF BY LATE
MORNING BUT SOME LINGERING STRATUS MAY BE A PROBLEM AS FOG LIFTS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
WINDS PERSISTING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 050807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS MORNING:

ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A
HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:

CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
SW KS LEADS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.
WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 08Z.

CHANCES FOR AREAS NE OF KICT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 08-09Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KSLN SE TO KCNU
EARLY WED MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT IN
CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT/KHUT AND KRSL/KSLN
FOR EARLY WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  71  96  73 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  70  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          86  69  93  71 /  40  10  10  20
ELDORADO        87  70  93  72 /  50  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  72  96  74 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         88  68  95  69 /  20   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      89  69  96  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          86  70  94  71 /  40  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  69  95  71 /  30  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  94  75 /  60  40  10  20
CHANUTE         86  70  92  72 /  70  40  10  30
IOLA            84  70  91  72 /  70  40  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    87  71  93  74 /  70  40  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 050807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS MORNING:

ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A
HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:

CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
SW KS LEADS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.
WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 08Z.

CHANCES FOR AREAS NE OF KICT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 08-09Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KSLN SE TO KCNU
EARLY WED MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT IN
CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT/KHUT AND KRSL/KSLN
FOR EARLY WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  71  96  73 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  70  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          86  69  93  71 /  40  10  10  20
ELDORADO        87  70  93  72 /  50  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  72  96  74 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         88  68  95  69 /  20   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      89  69  96  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          86  70  94  71 /  40  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  69  95  71 /  30  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  94  75 /  60  40  10  20
CHANUTE         86  70  92  72 /  70  40  10  30
IOLA            84  70  91  72 /  70  40  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    87  71  93  74 /  70  40  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 050807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS MORNING:

ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A
HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:

CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
SW KS LEADS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.
WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 08Z.

CHANCES FOR AREAS NE OF KICT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 08-09Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KSLN SE TO KCNU
EARLY WED MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT IN
CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT/KHUT AND KRSL/KSLN
FOR EARLY WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  71  96  73 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  70  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          86  69  93  71 /  40  10  10  20
ELDORADO        87  70  93  72 /  50  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  72  96  74 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         88  68  95  69 /  20   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      89  69  96  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          86  70  94  71 /  40  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  69  95  71 /  30  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  94  75 /  60  40  10  20
CHANUTE         86  70  92  72 /  70  40  10  30
IOLA            84  70  91  72 /  70  40  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    87  71  93  74 /  70  40  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 050807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS MORNING:

ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A
HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:

CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
SW KS LEADS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.
WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 08Z.

CHANCES FOR AREAS NE OF KICT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 08-09Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KSLN SE TO KCNU
EARLY WED MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT IN
CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT/KHUT AND KRSL/KSLN
FOR EARLY WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  71  96  73 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  70  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          86  69  93  71 /  40  10  10  20
ELDORADO        87  70  93  72 /  50  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  72  96  74 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         88  68  95  69 /  20   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      89  69  96  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          86  70  94  71 /  40  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  69  95  71 /  30  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  94  75 /  60  40  10  20
CHANUTE         86  70  92  72 /  70  40  10  30
IOLA            84  70  91  72 /  70  40  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    87  71  93  74 /  70  40  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 050807
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THIS MORNING:

ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A
HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:

CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
SW KS LEADS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.
WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 08Z.

CHANCES FOR AREAS NE OF KICT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 08-09Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KSLN SE TO KCNU
EARLY WED MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT IN
CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT/KHUT AND KRSL/KSLN
FOR EARLY WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  71  96  73 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      89  70  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          86  69  93  71 /  40  10  10  20
ELDORADO        87  70  93  72 /  50  20  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  72  96  74 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         88  68  95  69 /  20   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      89  69  96  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          86  70  94  71 /  40  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  69  95  71 /  30  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     89  71  94  75 /  60  40  10  20
CHANUTE         86  70  92  72 /  70  40  10  30
IOLA            84  70  91  72 /  70  40  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    87  71  93  74 /  70  40  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 050753
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

The main forecast challenge for today is areas of dense fog early
this morning and how far west and south into southwestern Kansas.
RAP model in good agreement with NAM supporting areas of dense fog
and low stratus into around 14-15Z this morning from Scott City to
Medicine Lodge and east including Dodge City. Higher dewpoints are
forecast to come into the area as east to northeasterly winds
develop as surface low pressure moves into the Texas Panhandle area.
Will probably need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory shortly. After
areas of dense fog and stratus burns off by mid morning, skies
should be mostly sunny with easterly winds around 8 to 15 mph. Highs
today will range from the mid 90s far west near Liberal to Syracuse
and west, with low 90s to upper 80s elsewhere. The coolest in parts
of north central Kansas.

For tonight, moist easterly upslope winds continue at around 10 mph
with possibly more areas of dense fog or stratus developing after
midnight into the early morning. Lows will be in the upper 60s to
around 70 at Medicine Lodge.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

For Thursday, areas of early morning dense fog will burn off by mid
morning with moist easterly upslope winds of around 10 mph. Skies
will become mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Question is will the easterly winds keep highs down a bit than
currently forecast. NAM only has lower 90s, while other models have
warmer temps.

For Friday, upper level ridging moves into the Central Plains with
winds becoming southeasterly at 10 to 15 mph. Highs could be around
100 at Liberal to the mid and upper 90s elsewhere. Again will the
moist upslope winds keep highs slightly cooler than forecast?

For the Weekend into Tuesday, upper level warm ridging moves slowly
east on Saturday, with more southwesterly to westerly zonal flow
aloft establishing on Sunday. A shortwave trough moves across the
Northern Plains on Monday into Tuesday, pushing a cold front across
western Kansas on Monday with cooler temps Monday into early next
week. Thunderstorm chances look the best with the cold front but
could have scattered thunderstorms north of the Dodge City area on
Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s on
Saturday and Sunday, then cool into the upper 80s to around 90 on
Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild and from the upper
60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

As a surface low pressure trough in eastern Colorado moves south,
light southeast moist upslope winds become light easterly to
light and variable by dawn. Some stratus and light fog may develop
especially at KHYS after 09z, and is possible in the KDDC and KGCK
areas also, but not confident enough to add to TAF forecast attm.
Expect VFR conditions with some IFR/MVFR cigs/vis at KHYS through
16z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  68  97  70 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  93  68  98  69 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  96  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  97  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  88  67  95  68 /  10   0  10  10
P28  93  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KDDC 050720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

The main forecast challenge for today is areas of dense fog early
this morning and how far west and south into southwestern Kansas.
RAP model in good agreement with NAM supporting areas of dense fog
and low stratus into around 14-15Z this morning from Scott City to
Medicine Lodge and east including Dodge City. Higher dewpoints are
forecast to come into the area as east to northeasterly winds
develop as surface low pressure moves into the Texas Panhandle area.
Will probably need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory shortly. After
areas of dense fog and stratus burns off by mid morning, skies
should be mostly sunny with easterly winds around 8 to 15 mph. Highs
today will range from the mid 90s far west near Liberal to Syracuse
and west, with low 90s to upper 80s elsewhere. The coolest in parts
of north central Kansas.

For tonight, moist easterly upslope winds continue at around 10 mph
with possibly more areas of dense fog or stratus developing after
midnight into the early morning. Lows will be in the upper 60s to
around 70 at Medicine Lodge.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

As a surface low pressure trough in eastern Colorado moves south,
light southeast moist upslope winds become light easterly to
light and variable by dawn. Some stratus and light fog may develop
especially at KHYS after 09z, and is possible in the KDDC and KGCK
areas also, but not confident enough to add to TAF forecast attm.
Expect VFR conditions with some IFR/MVFR cigs/vis at KHYS through
16z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  68  97  70 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  93  68  98  69 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  96  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  97  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  88  67  95  68 /  10   0  10  10
P28  93  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

The main forecast challenge for today is areas of dense fog early
this morning and how far west and south into southwestern Kansas.
RAP model in good agreement with NAM supporting areas of dense fog
and low stratus into around 14-15Z this morning from Scott City to
Medicine Lodge and east including Dodge City. Higher dewpoints are
forecast to come into the area as east to northeasterly winds
develop as surface low pressure moves into the Texas Panhandle area.
Will probably need to issue a Dense Fog Advisory shortly. After
areas of dense fog and stratus burns off by mid morning, skies
should be mostly sunny with easterly winds around 8 to 15 mph. Highs
today will range from the mid 90s far west near Liberal to Syracuse
and west, with low 90s to upper 80s elsewhere. The coolest in parts
of north central Kansas.

For tonight, moist easterly upslope winds continue at around 10 mph
with possibly more areas of dense fog or stratus developing after
midnight into the early morning. Lows will be in the upper 60s to
around 70 at Medicine Lodge.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

As a surface low pressure trough in eastern Colorado moves south,
light southeast moist upslope winds become light easterly to
light and variable by dawn. Some stratus and light fog may develop
especially at KHYS after 09z, and is possible in the KDDC and KGCK
areas also, but not confident enough to add to TAF forecast attm.
Expect VFR conditions with some IFR/MVFR cigs/vis at KHYS through
16z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  68  97  70 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  93  68  98  69 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  96  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  97  69  99  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  88  67  95  68 /  10   0  10  10
P28  93  70  98  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KGLD 050545
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE CLEARING REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH SHORTLY AS VERY
COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AFTER THE STORMS PASSAGE. WITH SUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURRING AND AT LEAST LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT THINK BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES
IS NOW OVER. WILL BE FOCUSING ON FOG RISK TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THINGS TO START MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PRECONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY END THIS MORNING AS FOG DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT KMCK THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO ALREADY OBSERVED THIS
EVENING. KGLD SHOULD EXPECT A LATER ARRIVAL FOR THE FOG AND A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. FOG BURNS OFF BY LATE
MORNING BUT SOME LINGERING STRATUS MAY BE A PROBLEM AS FOG LIFTS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
WINDS PERSISTING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050545
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE CLEARING REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH SHORTLY AS VERY
COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AFTER THE STORMS PASSAGE. WITH SUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURRING AND AT LEAST LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT THINK BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES
IS NOW OVER. WILL BE FOCUSING ON FOG RISK TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THINGS TO START MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PRECONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY END THIS MORNING AS FOG DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT KMCK THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO ALREADY OBSERVED THIS
EVENING. KGLD SHOULD EXPECT A LATER ARRIVAL FOR THE FOG AND A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. FOG BURNS OFF BY LATE
MORNING BUT SOME LINGERING STRATUS MAY BE A PROBLEM AS FOG LIFTS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
WINDS PERSISTING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050545
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE CLEARING REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH SHORTLY AS VERY
COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AFTER THE STORMS PASSAGE. WITH SUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURRING AND AT LEAST LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT THINK BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES
IS NOW OVER. WILL BE FOCUSING ON FOG RISK TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THINGS TO START MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PRECONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY END THIS MORNING AS FOG DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT KMCK THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO ALREADY OBSERVED THIS
EVENING. KGLD SHOULD EXPECT A LATER ARRIVAL FOR THE FOG AND A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. FOG BURNS OFF BY LATE
MORNING BUT SOME LINGERING STRATUS MAY BE A PROBLEM AS FOG LIFTS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
WINDS PERSISTING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050545
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE CLEARING REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH SHORTLY AS VERY
COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AFTER THE STORMS PASSAGE. WITH SUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURRING AND AT LEAST LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT THINK BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES
IS NOW OVER. WILL BE FOCUSING ON FOG RISK TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THINGS TO START MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PRECONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY END THIS MORNING AS FOG DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT KMCK THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR ZERO ALREADY OBSERVED THIS
EVENING. KGLD SHOULD EXPECT A LATER ARRIVAL FOR THE FOG AND A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL. FOG BURNS OFF BY LATE
MORNING BUT SOME LINGERING STRATUS MAY BE A PROBLEM AS FOG LIFTS.
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
WINDS PERSISTING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KICT 050451
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A
BIT..WITH AN ISOLATED STORM STILL JUST NW OF KSLN.  SO QUESTION IS
HOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL EVOLVE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE STILL SHOWING A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IN
THE NW FLOW OVER NRN NEB AT THIS TIME.  MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WED MORNING.  JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING FOR AREAS NE OF THE KICT METRO AREA
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN
THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING AS SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH.  THINK KICT/KHUT METRO AREAS MAY BE ON THE SW EDGE OF THIS
RENEWED PRECIP/STORM CHANCE. SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR AREAS SW
OF THIS LINE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS NE OF KICT...AS STORMS WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAST...WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. COULD ALSO SEE STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAY FOCUSED OVER E-NE KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AS
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS LEADS
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WED MORNING.  EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. WHERE A FEW
STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 08Z.

CHANCES FOR AREAS NE OF KICT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS
08-09Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KSLN SE TO KCNU EARLY WED
MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU/KSLN FOR EARLY WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST.  AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT IN
CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT/KHUT AND KRSL/KSLN
FOR EARLY WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  74  94 /  40  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  89  71  95 /  50  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  88  71  93 /  60  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  89  74  93 /  60  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  68  95 /  70  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  71  96 /  50  20  10  10
SALINA          67  85  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  71  94 /  60  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  87  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  86  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 050437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO TOPEKA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS CITY AT 20Z.
LATEST MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AIDING IN ASCENT AS WELL AS GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ADVECTING NORTHWARD. LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TOPEKA THROUGH THE
LAWRENCE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT STORMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE
SOUTH NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR DOES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH WEDS NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES AT LEAST A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STORM CHCS. THAT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
BRINGS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING
WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER
MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND TRACKS ESE INTO THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND SAT WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WITH WHAT HAS BEEN A SEMI PERMANENT
LOW AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STATE SO CANNOT RULE OUT MORE STORM
CHCS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE PERHAPS WE DRY OUT LATER
MON INTO NEXT TUES. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD FOR
EARLY AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT OF KMHK SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KTOP/KFOE BY 06Z. FOCUS TURNS TO WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM IMPACTS TERMINALS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AFT 09Z
WITH THE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AIDING IN MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
CLEARING IMPROVES CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN VFR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 050437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO TOPEKA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS CITY AT 20Z.
LATEST MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AIDING IN ASCENT AS WELL AS GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ADVECTING NORTHWARD. LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TOPEKA THROUGH THE
LAWRENCE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT STORMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE
SOUTH NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR DOES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH WEDS NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES AT LEAST A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STORM CHCS. THAT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
BRINGS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING
WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER
MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND TRACKS ESE INTO THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND SAT WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WITH WHAT HAS BEEN A SEMI PERMANENT
LOW AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STATE SO CANNOT RULE OUT MORE STORM
CHCS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE PERHAPS WE DRY OUT LATER
MON INTO NEXT TUES. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD FOR
EARLY AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT OF KMHK SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KTOP/KFOE BY 06Z. FOCUS TURNS TO WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM IMPACTS TERMINALS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AFT 09Z
WITH THE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AIDING IN MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
CLEARING IMPROVES CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN VFR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 050437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO TOPEKA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS CITY AT 20Z.
LATEST MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AIDING IN ASCENT AS WELL AS GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ADVECTING NORTHWARD. LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TOPEKA THROUGH THE
LAWRENCE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT STORMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE
SOUTH NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR DOES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH WEDS NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES AT LEAST A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STORM CHCS. THAT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
BRINGS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING
WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER
MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND TRACKS ESE INTO THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND SAT WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WITH WHAT HAS BEEN A SEMI PERMANENT
LOW AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STATE SO CANNOT RULE OUT MORE STORM
CHCS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE PERHAPS WE DRY OUT LATER
MON INTO NEXT TUES. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD FOR
EARLY AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT OF KMHK SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KTOP/KFOE BY 06Z. FOCUS TURNS TO WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM IMPACTS TERMINALS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AFT 09Z
WITH THE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AIDING IN MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
CLEARING IMPROVES CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN VFR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 050437
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO TOPEKA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS CITY AT 20Z.
LATEST MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AIDING IN ASCENT AS WELL AS GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ADVECTING NORTHWARD. LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TOPEKA THROUGH THE
LAWRENCE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT STORMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE
SOUTH NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR DOES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH WEDS NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES AT LEAST A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STORM CHCS. THAT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
BRINGS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING
WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER
MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND TRACKS ESE INTO THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND SAT WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WITH WHAT HAS BEEN A SEMI PERMANENT
LOW AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STATE SO CANNOT RULE OUT MORE STORM
CHCS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE PERHAPS WE DRY OUT LATER
MON INTO NEXT TUES. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD FOR
EARLY AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DECAYING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OUT OF KMHK SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KTOP/KFOE BY 06Z. FOCUS TURNS TO WEST WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM IMPACTS TERMINALS. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED AFT 09Z
WITH THE HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AIDING IN MVFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MIXING AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
CLEARING IMPROVES CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL
TSRA MAY BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH 01Z. WILL MAINTAIN VFR DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF TSRA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050426
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1126 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

As a surface low pressure trough in eastern Colorado moves south,
light southeast moist upslope winds become light easterly to
light and variable by dawn. Some stratus and light fog may develop
especially at KHYS after 09z, and is possible in the KDDC and KGCK
areas also, but not confident enough to add to TAF forecast attm.
Expect VFR conditions with some IFR/MVFR cigs/vis at KHYS through
16z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  70   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  60   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  20   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KICT 050255
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
955 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A
BIT..WITH AN ISOLATED STORM STILL JUST NW OF KSLN.  SO QUESTION IS
HOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL EVOLVE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE STILL SHOWING A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IN
THE NW FLOW OVER NRN NEB AT THIS TIME.  MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WED MORNING.  JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING FOR AREAS NE OF THE KICT METRO AREA
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN
THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING AS SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH.  THINK KICT/KHUT METRO AREAS MAY BE ON THE SW EDGE OF THIS
RENEWED PRECIP/STORM CHANCE. SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR AREAS SW
OF THIS LINE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS NE OF KICT...AS STORMS WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAST...WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. COULD ALSO SEE STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAY FOCUSED OVER E-NE KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AS
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS LEADS
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. WHERE A FEW
STORMS IN NW KS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z.

CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 05-06Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KRSL SE TO KICT EARLY
WED MORNING.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS
FOR EARLY WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
THE WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST.  AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT
IN CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED MORNING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  74  94 /  40  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  89  71  95 /  50  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  88  71  93 /  60  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  89  74  93 /  60  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  68  95 /  70  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  71  96 /  50  20  10  10
SALINA          67  85  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  71  94 /  60  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  87  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  86  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 050255
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
955 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A
BIT..WITH AN ISOLATED STORM STILL JUST NW OF KSLN.  SO QUESTION IS
HOW PRECIP CHANCES WILL EVOLVE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE STILL SHOWING A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE IN
THE NW FLOW OVER NRN NEB AT THIS TIME.  MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY WED MORNING.  JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING FOR AREAS NE OF THE KICT METRO AREA
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN
THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING AS SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTH.  THINK KICT/KHUT METRO AREAS MAY BE ON THE SW EDGE OF THIS
RENEWED PRECIP/STORM CHANCE. SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR AREAS SW
OF THIS LINE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS NE OF KICT...AS STORMS WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAST...WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL. COULD ALSO SEE STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAY FOCUSED OVER E-NE KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AS
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS LEADS
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. WHERE A FEW
STORMS IN NW KS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z.

CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 05-06Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KRSL SE TO KICT EARLY
WED MORNING.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS
FOR EARLY WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
THE WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST.  AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT
IN CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED MORNING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  74  94 /  40  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  89  71  95 /  50  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  88  71  93 /  60  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  89  74  93 /  60  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  68  95 /  70  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  71  96 /  50  20  10  10
SALINA          67  85  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  71  94 /  60  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  87  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  86  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 050014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
614 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE CLEARING REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH SHORTLY AS VERY
COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AFTER THE STORMS PASSAGE. WITH SUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURRING AND AT LEAST LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT THINK BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES
IS NOW OVER. WILL BE FOCUSING ON FOG RISK TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THINGS TO START MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PRECONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AS A COOLER...BUT MORE HUMID AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS REVEAL LOCATIONS
WILL BE STARTING THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUAL CLEARING FOG APPEARS
LIKELY. WHILE FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES...MCK AREA
APPEARS A BIT MORE PRECONDITIONED WITH LOW TD DEPRESSIONS AND
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND HAVE THUSLY SIG REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
HERE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 050014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
614 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE CLEARING REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH SHORTLY AS VERY
COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AFTER THE STORMS PASSAGE. WITH SUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURRING AND AT LEAST LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT THINK BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES
IS NOW OVER. WILL BE FOCUSING ON FOG RISK TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THINGS TO START MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PRECONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AS A COOLER...BUT MORE HUMID AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS REVEAL LOCATIONS
WILL BE STARTING THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUAL CLEARING FOG APPEARS
LIKELY. WHILE FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES...MCK AREA
APPEARS A BIT MORE PRECONDITIONED WITH LOW TD DEPRESSIONS AND
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND HAVE THUSLY SIG REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
HERE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 050014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
614 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WILL BE CLEARING REMAINING COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH SHORTLY AS VERY
COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AFTER THE STORMS PASSAGE. WITH SUCH
STABILIZATION OCCURRING AND AT LEAST LARGE SCALE FORCING NOT
REALLY FAVORABLE FOR ASCENT OVERNIGHT THINK BULK OF PRECIP CHANCES
IS NOW OVER. WILL BE FOCUSING ON FOG RISK TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THINGS TO START MUCH EARLIER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PRECONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
AREA AS A COOLER...BUT MORE HUMID AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS REVEAL LOCATIONS
WILL BE STARTING THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5
DEGREES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUAL CLEARING FOG APPEARS
LIKELY. WHILE FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES...MCK AREA
APPEARS A BIT MORE PRECONDITIONED WITH LOW TD DEPRESSIONS AND
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND HAVE THUSLY SIG REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
HERE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KICT 042354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AS
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS LEADS
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. WHERE A FEW
STORMS IN NW KS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z.

CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 05-06Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KRSL SE TO KICT EARLY
WED MORNING.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS
FOR EARLY WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
THE WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST.  AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT
IN CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  89  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  88  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  89  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  85  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  87  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  86  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 042354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AS
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS LEADS
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. WHERE A FEW
STORMS IN NW KS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z.

CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 05-06Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KRSL SE TO KICT EARLY
WED MORNING.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS
FOR EARLY WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
THE WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST.  AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT
IN CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  89  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  88  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  89  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  85  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  87  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  86  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 042354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AS
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS LEADS
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. WHERE A FEW
STORMS IN NW KS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z.

CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 05-06Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KRSL SE TO KICT EARLY
WED MORNING.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS
FOR EARLY WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
THE WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST.  AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT
IN CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  89  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  88  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  89  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  85  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  87  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  86  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 042354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AS
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SW KS LEADS
TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS.  EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. WHERE A FEW
STORMS IN NW KS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 02Z.

CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 05-06Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KRSL SE TO KICT EARLY
WED MORNING.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS
FOR EARLY WED.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
THE WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST.  AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT
IN CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE KRSL/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  90  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  89  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  88  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  89  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  86  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  87  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  85  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  87  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  89  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  87  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  86  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  87  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 042344
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO TOPEKA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS CITY AT 20Z.
LATEST MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AIDING IN ASCENT AS WELL AS GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ADVECTING NORTHWARD. LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TOPEKA THROUGH THE
LAWRENCE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT STORMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE
SOUTH NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR DOES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH WEDS NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES AT LEAST A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STORM CHCS. THAT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
BRINGS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING
WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER
MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND TRACKS ESE INTO THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND SAT WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WITH WHAT HAS BEEN A SEMI PERMANENT
LOW AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STATE SO CANNOT RULE OUT MORE STORM
CHCS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE PERHAPS WE DRY OUT LATER
MON INTO NEXT TUES. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD FOR
EARLY AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR PREVAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS
GRADUALLY CLEARING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AFTER 09Z APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT KMHK AND AREAS
SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ALLOWS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MID MORNING WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SCT
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...BOWEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 042308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will move southeast
across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
afternoon. Southerly winds of around 15 to 25kt will persist
through early this evening as a lee side trough of low pressure
edges slowly eastward into extreme western Kansas. Winds are then
expected to subside below 15kt overnight while becoming more
variable as the surface trough moves further east across western
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KDDC 042308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will move southeast
across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
afternoon. Southerly winds of around 15 to 25kt will persist
through early this evening as a lee side trough of low pressure
edges slowly eastward into extreme western Kansas. Winds are then
expected to subside below 15kt overnight while becoming more
variable as the surface trough moves further east across western
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



000
FXUS63 KDDC 042308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will move southeast
across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
afternoon. Southerly winds of around 15 to 25kt will persist
through early this evening as a lee side trough of low pressure
edges slowly eastward into extreme western Kansas. Winds are then
expected to subside below 15kt overnight while becoming more
variable as the surface trough moves further east across western
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



000
FXUS63 KDDC 042308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will move southeast
across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas this
evening, potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
afternoon. Southerly winds of around 15 to 25kt will persist
through early this evening as a lee side trough of low pressure
edges slowly eastward into extreme western Kansas. Winds are then
expected to subside below 15kt overnight while becoming more
variable as the surface trough moves further east across western
Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KGLD 042212
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR CANCELLATION OF THE WESTERN PART OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470. THE REST OF THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 042212
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 411 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR CANCELLATION OF THE WESTERN PART OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470. THE REST OF THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 042046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO TOPEKA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS CITY AT 20Z.
LATEST MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AIDING IN ASCENT AS WELL AS GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ADVECTING NORTHWARD. LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TOPEKA THROUGH THE
LAWRENCE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT STORMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE
SOUTH NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR DOES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH WEDS NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES AT LEAST A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STORM CHCS. THAT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
BRINGS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING
WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER
MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND TRACKS ESE INTO THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND SAT WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WITH WHAT HAS BEEN A SEMI PERMANENT
LOW AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STATE SO CANNOT RULE OUT MORE STORM
CHCS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE PERHAPS WE DRY OUT LATER
MON INTO NEXT TUES. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD FOR
EARLY AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE ACTIVE AT TIMES, BUT NOT EXPECTING A
TOTAL WASHOUT OVER THE TERMINALS. THINKING IS THAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT COUPLED
WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINALS, THAT A DECENT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SET UP AND LAST UNTIL LATE
EVENING. THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AND THEN
BY AROUND 10-12Z ANOTHER WAVE MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WHICH ALSO MAY
BRING CIG/VIS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. HAVE NOT BEEN THAT
PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS ISSUANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW ACTUAL FEATURES
DEVELOP AND TRACK, THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHANGES TO THIS
FORECAST.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 042046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO TOPEKA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS CITY AT 20Z.
LATEST MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. ALOFT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AIDING IN ASCENT AS WELL AS GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.6 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA ADVECTING NORTHWARD. LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TOPEKA THROUGH THE
LAWRENCE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH EXPECT MORE SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING WHILE A SECOND TROUGH OVER WYOMING MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING, THEN EXPECT STORMS FROM THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS HIGH THETA-E AIR FROM THE
SOUTH NORTHWARD OVER THE BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z. WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION MAY BE ONGOING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND PERHAPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHEAR DOES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 35 KTS WITH MUCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLEARING FOR ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH WEDS NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS AND MID/UPPER RIDGING PROVIDES AT LEAST A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE STORM CHCS. THAT BREAK SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
BRINGS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS TO THE PLAINS THURS NIGHT. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNING
WITH ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK DURING THE DAY EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER
MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND TRACKS ESE INTO THE AREA
FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND SAT WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WITH WHAT HAS BEEN A SEMI PERMANENT
LOW AND BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE STATE SO CANNOT RULE OUT MORE STORM
CHCS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON BEFORE PERHAPS WE DRY OUT LATER
MON INTO NEXT TUES. ALL IN ALL A VERY ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD FOR
EARLY AUGUST WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE ACTIVE AT TIMES, BUT NOT EXPECTING A
TOTAL WASHOUT OVER THE TERMINALS. THINKING IS THAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT COUPLED
WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINALS, THAT A DECENT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SET UP AND LAST UNTIL LATE
EVENING. THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AND THEN
BY AROUND 10-12Z ANOTHER WAVE MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WHICH ALSO MAY
BRING CIG/VIS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. HAVE NOT BEEN THAT
PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS ISSUANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW ACTUAL FEATURES
DEVELOP AND TRACK, THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHANGES TO THIS
FORECAST.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KGLD 042030
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 042030
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 042030
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 042030
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470 WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING WITH STORMS EXITING OVERNIGHT.  THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.  LATER
TONIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA.  PLAN TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 60 TO 65.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A FLATTENED RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS BEHIND THE TROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE FA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  SOME
LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIMITED MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD
OF THE FA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN AFTER 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  PLAN TO CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA.  A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS.  HOWEVER, NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 042005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



000
FXUS63 KDDC 042005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



000
FXUS63 KDDC 042005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

There is an outside chance for thunderstorms across central Kansas
late Thursday as medium range models indicate an upper level
shortwave tracks eastward across the northern plains early in the
time period. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak above
much of southwest and south central Kansas, all models show a
modest upper level jet core streaming eastward eastward across
Nebraska and clipping portions of northern Kansas. As low/mid
level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the arrival of a
cold front attendant to the shortwave to our north, a few isolated
thunderstorms could develop across central Kansas in the vicinity
of the I-70 corridor during the late Thursday afternoon/early
evening time frame. Otherwise, drier conditions are likely across
central and southwest Kansas through Friday as upper level ridging
across the desert southwest and southern Rockies moves east into
the Western High Plains. Chances for precip may return Friday
night as the GFS and ECMWF both show a weak upper level shortwave
ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of
northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas.
Plenty of uncertainty remains as to the track and timing of this
system but the best chance for thunderstorms looks to be across
more northern portions of the forecast area, to include west
central and central Kansas, if at all.

Seasonal temperatures can be expected Thursday as a low level
southerly flow re-establishes itself across western Kansas ahead of
an approaching cold front. Widespread 90s(F) are expected for highs
Thursday afternoon. Highs Friday will be dependent on how far south
the frontal boundary mentioned earlier reaches before stalling out.
Regardless, highs should reach the 90s(F) for the most part,
especially further south along the Oklahoma border. Highs could
reach near 100F in some locations Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridging moves into the Western High Plains to finish
out the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  65  94  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  65  97  68  98 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  65  97  69 100 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  88  68  95 /  60  10   0  20
P28  68  92  71  98 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KICT 041955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  90  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  89  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  90  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  87  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  88  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  86  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  88  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  90  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  88  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  87  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  88  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 041955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  90  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  89  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  90  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  87  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  88  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  86  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  88  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  90  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  88  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  87  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  88  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 041955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  90  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  89  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  90  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  87  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  88  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  86  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  88  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  90  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  88  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  87  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  88  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 041955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  90  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  89  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  90  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  87  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  88  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  86  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  88  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  90  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  88  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  87  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  88  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 041955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  90  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  89  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  90  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  87  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  88  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  86  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  88  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  90  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  88  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  87  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  88  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 041955
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310-
315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS
AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD
RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS.

THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS
MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST-
FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.

THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW
POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  74  94 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      67  90  71  95 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          66  89  71  93 /  80  30  10  10
ELDORADO        67  90  74  93 /  70  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  73  94 /  70  20  10  10
RUSSELL         66  87  68  95 /  80  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  88  71  96 /  60  20  10  10
SALINA          67  86  72  94 /  90  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  88  71  94 /  90  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  90  73  93 /  70  60  20  10
CHANUTE         69  88  72  91 /  70  60  20  10
IOLA            68  87  72  90 /  70  60  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    71  88  75  92 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  65  93  69 /  10  20   0   0
GCK  92  65  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  65  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  65  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  87  65  88  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  68  92  71 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...JJohnson



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
116 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough and an
associated H5 vort max exiting the Wyoming Rockies and pushing into
the high plains of western Nebraska tonight setting the stage for
possible thunderstorms across central and portions of western Kansas
through early Wednesday. As the system kicks out into the high
plains, a surface low will continue to organize near and along
the Kansas/Colorado border in west central Kansas with a near
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward into central
Kansas. Meanwhile, a return flow will continue to supply ample
moisture into the state with surface dewpoints remaining well up
into the 60s(F). As low/mid level lapse rates steepen late this
afternoon into early evening, thunderstorms are expected to
develop in a area of destabilization on the back side of an
eroding cloud shield and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
With the NAM/GFS showing SBCAPE in excess of 2000 J/KG and
favorable vertical shear profiles, thunderstorms could become
severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary threat.
Although the flow aloft will be less than favorable, an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out based on favorable hodographs.

Seasonal temperatures are expected again tonight as a prevailing
southerly flow reinforces the mild air mass in place across the high
plains. Considering increased cloud cover across central Kansas
tonight and likely precip about, look for lows down into the
60s(F) across Central Kansas to possibly the lower 70s(F) in South
Central Kansas. A weak cold front is projected to push across
western Kansas Wednesday dropping temperatures across all of
central and much of southwest Kansas. Highs are expected to reach
only up into the 80s(F) in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor to
the 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon where
H85 temperatures will still be up near 30C.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  65  93  69 /  10  20   0   0
GCK  92  65  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  65  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  65  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  87  65  88  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  68  92  71 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KTOP 041804
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGNANT LARGE SCALE REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE ACTIVE AT TIMES, BUT NOT EXPECTING A
TOTAL WASHOUT OVER THE TERMINALS. THINKING IS THAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT COUPLED
WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINALS, THAT A DECENT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SET UP AND LAST UNTIL LATE
EVENING. THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AND THEN
BY AROUND 10-12Z ANOTHER WAVE MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WHICH ALSO MAY
BRING CIG/VIS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. HAVE NOT BEEN THAT
PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS ISSUANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW ACTUAL FEATURES
DEVELOP AND TRACK, THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHANGES TO THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 041804
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGNANT LARGE SCALE REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE ACTIVE AT TIMES, BUT NOT EXPECTING A
TOTAL WASHOUT OVER THE TERMINALS. THINKING IS THAT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT COUPLED
WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES OVER OR NEAR THE TERMINALS, THAT A DECENT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SET UP AND LAST UNTIL LATE
EVENING. THE EARLY MORNING SHOULD SEE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AND THEN
BY AROUND 10-12Z ANOTHER WAVE MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION
WHICH COULD BRING ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS WHICH ALSO MAY
BRING CIG/VIS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. HAVE NOT BEEN THAT
PESSIMISTIC WITH THIS ISSUANCE. DEPENDING ON HOW ACTUAL FEATURES
DEVELOP AND TRACK, THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHANGES TO THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KICT 041758
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPORADICALLY
APPEAR HAVE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO "UNCERTAINTY" TO "SCATTERED"
& "ISOLATED" RESPECTIVELY. THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS ~7PM CDT WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  91  74 /  60  70  20  10
HUTCHINSON      83  67  90  71 /  60  80  20  10
NEWTON          82  66  89  71 /  60  80  30  10
ELDORADO        83  67  90  74 /  60  70  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  70  93  73 /  60  70  20  10
RUSSELL         84  66  87  68 /  60  80  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  67  88  71 /  50  60  20  10
SALINA          84  67  86  72 /  60  90  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  88  71 /  60  90  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  69  90  73 /  60  70  60  20
CHANUTE         88  69  88  72 /  70  70  60  20
IOLA            88  68  87  72 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  71  88  75 /  60  70  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 041758
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPORADICALLY
APPEAR HAVE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO "UNCERTAINTY" TO "SCATTERED"
& "ISOLATED" RESPECTIVELY. THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS ~7PM CDT WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  91  74 /  60  70  20  10
HUTCHINSON      83  67  90  71 /  60  80  20  10
NEWTON          82  66  89  71 /  60  80  30  10
ELDORADO        83  67  90  74 /  60  70  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  70  93  73 /  60  70  20  10
RUSSELL         84  66  87  68 /  60  80  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  67  88  71 /  50  60  20  10
SALINA          84  67  86  72 /  60  90  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  88  71 /  60  90  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  69  90  73 /  60  70  60  20
CHANUTE         88  69  88  72 /  70  70  60  20
IOLA            88  68  87  72 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  71  88  75 /  60  70  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 041758
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPORADICALLY
APPEAR HAVE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO "UNCERTAINTY" TO "SCATTERED"
& "ISOLATED" RESPECTIVELY. THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS ~7PM CDT WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  91  74 /  60  70  20  10
HUTCHINSON      83  67  90  71 /  60  80  20  10
NEWTON          82  66  89  71 /  60  80  30  10
ELDORADO        83  67  90  74 /  60  70  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  70  93  73 /  60  70  20  10
RUSSELL         84  66  87  68 /  60  80  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  67  88  71 /  50  60  20  10
SALINA          84  67  86  72 /  60  90  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  88  71 /  60  90  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  69  90  73 /  60  70  60  20
CHANUTE         88  69  88  72 /  70  70  60  20
IOLA            88  68  87  72 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  71  88  75 /  60  70  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 041758
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPORADICALLY
APPEAR HAVE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO "UNCERTAINTY" TO "SCATTERED"
& "ISOLATED" RESPECTIVELY. THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS ~7PM CDT WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  91  74 /  60  70  20  10
HUTCHINSON      83  67  90  71 /  60  80  20  10
NEWTON          82  66  89  71 /  60  80  30  10
ELDORADO        83  67  90  74 /  60  70  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  70  93  73 /  60  70  20  10
RUSSELL         84  66  87  68 /  60  80  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  67  88  71 /  50  60  20  10
SALINA          84  67  86  72 /  60  90  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  88  71 /  60  90  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  69  90  73 /  60  70  60  20
CHANUTE         88  69  88  72 /  70  70  60  20
IOLA            88  68  87  72 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  71  88  75 /  60  70  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 041758
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPORADICALLY
APPEAR HAVE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO "UNCERTAINTY" TO "SCATTERED"
& "ISOLATED" RESPECTIVELY. THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS ~7PM CDT WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  91  74 /  60  70  20  10
HUTCHINSON      83  67  90  71 /  60  80  20  10
NEWTON          82  66  89  71 /  60  80  30  10
ELDORADO        83  67  90  74 /  60  70  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  70  93  73 /  60  70  20  10
RUSSELL         84  66  87  68 /  60  80  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  67  88  71 /  50  60  20  10
SALINA          84  67  86  72 /  60  90  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  88  71 /  60  90  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  69  90  73 /  60  70  60  20
CHANUTE         88  69  88  72 /  70  70  60  20
IOLA            88  68  87  72 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  71  88  75 /  60  70  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 041758
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPORADICALLY
APPEAR HAVE UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS TO "UNCERTAINTY" TO "SCATTERED"
& "ISOLATED" RESPECTIVELY. THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS STILL
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL KS ~7PM CDT WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY
INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE
THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD
TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW
POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR
ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR
OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  91  74 /  60  70  20  10
HUTCHINSON      83  67  90  71 /  60  80  20  10
NEWTON          82  66  89  71 /  60  80  30  10
ELDORADO        83  67  90  74 /  60  70  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  70  93  73 /  60  70  20  10
RUSSELL         84  66  87  68 /  60  80  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  67  88  71 /  50  60  20  10
SALINA          84  67  86  72 /  60  90  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  88  71 /  60  90  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  69  90  73 /  60  70  60  20
CHANUTE         88  69  88  72 /  70  70  60  20
IOLA            88  68  87  72 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  71  88  75 /  60  70  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041718
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Wyoming Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  65  95  69 /  10  20   0   0
GCK  92  65  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  65  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  65  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  87  65  92  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  68  95  71 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...JJohnson



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041718
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Wyoming Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  65  95  69 /  10  20   0   0
GCK  92  65  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  65  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  65  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  87  65  92  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  68  95  71 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...JJohnson



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041718
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Wyoming Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  65  95  69 /  10  20   0   0
GCK  92  65  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  65  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  65  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  87  65  92  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  68  95  71 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...JJohnson



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041718
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Wyoming Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A few thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into tonight
potentially affecting KHYS and KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday morning.
Southerly winds of 10 to 20kt will persist across central and much
of southwest Kansas through late tonight as a weak lee side trough
of low pressure slowly moves from eastern Colorado into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  65  95  69 /  10  20   0   0
GCK  92  65  95  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  65  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  65  97  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  87  65  92  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  68  95  71 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...JJohnson



000
FXUS63 KGLD 041454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPIRED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SW NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041418
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
918 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Wyoming Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Cigs should be vfr through taf pd. still looking at vcts/cb for khys
tonight. Confidence is pretty low given the poor performance of models
recently. Winds will be SE/S 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  69 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  91  66  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  68  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  86  67  91  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041418
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
918 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Wyoming Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Cigs should be vfr through taf pd. still looking at vcts/cb for khys
tonight. Confidence is pretty low given the poor performance of models
recently. Winds will be SE/S 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  69 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  91  66  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  68  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  86  67  91  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041418
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
918 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WV imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
shortwave trough transitioning eastward across the Central Plains.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level shortwave is moving east across
the Wyoming Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging slowly east across extreme eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Cigs should be vfr through taf pd. still looking at vcts/cb for khys
tonight. Confidence is pretty low given the poor performance of models
recently. Winds will be SE/S 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  69 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  91  66  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  92  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  68  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  86  67  91  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 041134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 041134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 041134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 041134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 041134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT KGLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNLIKE
KGLD...KMCK IS CURRENTLY ENGULFED IN DENSE FOG. FOG FORMED IN THE
VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WHERE MOISTURE IS POOLED. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. STORMS LIKELY
DEVELOP ON A DRYLINE AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT. STORMS
WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BUT UNSURE IF THEY WILL REACH KGLD. FOR
NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT KGLD. STORMS LIKELY EXIT THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK.
PLACED A MVFR FOG MENTION INTO KMCK TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 041132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGNANT LARGE SCALE REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. WAVE
COMING OUT OF WESTERN KS INCREASES COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO DID NOT PICK ONE
PARTICULAR TIME FOR HEAVIEST STORMS AND WILL CARRY VFR PREVAILING
TS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67




000
FXUS63 KTOP 041132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGNANT LARGE SCALE REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. WAVE
COMING OUT OF WESTERN KS INCREASES COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO DID NOT PICK ONE
PARTICULAR TIME FOR HEAVIEST STORMS AND WILL CARRY VFR PREVAILING
TS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67



000
FXUS63 KTOP 041132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGNANT LARGE SCALE REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. WAVE
COMING OUT OF WESTERN KS INCREASES COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO DID NOT PICK ONE
PARTICULAR TIME FOR HEAVIEST STORMS AND WILL CARRY VFR PREVAILING
TS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67



000
FXUS63 KTOP 041132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGNANT LARGE SCALE REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES. WAVE
COMING OUT OF WESTERN KS INCREASES COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...SO DID NOT PICK ONE
PARTICULAR TIME FOR HEAVIEST STORMS AND WILL CARRY VFR PREVAILING
TS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CIGS AND VISBYS LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67




000
FXUS63 KICT 041115
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TIMES...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY VCTS AND AMEND AS NEEDED WHEN WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION
BECOME MORE EVIDENT/IMMINENT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME...A PERIOD OR TWO OF
MVFR AND IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  92  72 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      83  68  92  70 /  50  50  20  10
NEWTON          82  68  89  70 /  60  60  40  10
ELDORADO        83  68  90  70 /  60  60  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  69  92  72 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELL         84  68  91  69 /  40  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      84  68  92  70 /  40  50  10  10
SALINA          84  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  70  90  72 /  60  60  60  30
CHANUTE         88  69  88  70 /  70  70  60  30
IOLA            88  69  87  69 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  70  89  71 /  60  70  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 041115
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AT TIMES...THOUGH FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY VCTS AND AMEND AS NEEDED WHEN WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION
BECOME MORE EVIDENT/IMMINENT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE TIME...A PERIOD OR TWO OF
MVFR AND IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  92  72 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      83  68  92  70 /  50  50  20  10
NEWTON          82  68  89  70 /  60  60  40  10
ELDORADO        83  68  90  70 /  60  60  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  69  92  72 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELL         84  68  91  69 /  40  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      84  68  92  70 /  40  50  10  10
SALINA          84  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  70  90  72 /  60  60  60  30
CHANUTE         88  69  88  70 /  70  70  60  30
IOLA            88  69  87  69 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  70  89  71 /  60  70  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Cigs should be vfr through taf pd. still looking at vcts/cb for khys
tonight. Confidence is pretty low given the poor performance of models
recently. Winds will be SE/S 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  69 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  90  66  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  91  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  68  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  84  67  91  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Cigs should be vfr through taf pd. still looking at vcts/cb for khys
tonight. Confidence is pretty low given the poor performance of models
recently. Winds will be SE/S 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  69 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  90  66  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  91  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  68  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  84  67  91  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden



000
FXUS63 KDDC 041100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Cigs should be vfr through taf pd. still looking at vcts/cb for khys
tonight. Confidence is pretty low given the poor performance of models
recently. Winds will be SE/S 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  69 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  90  66  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  91  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  68  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  84  67  91  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden




000
FXUS63 KDDC 041100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

Cigs should be vfr through taf pd. still looking at vcts/cb for khys
tonight. Confidence is pretty low given the poor performance of models
recently. Winds will be SE/S 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  69 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  90  66  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  91  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  68  96  69 /  10  10   0   0
HYS  84  67  91  68 /  40  50  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden




000
FXUS63 KGLD 040935
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 040935
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THUNDERSTORM ANVIL CIRRUS MOVES OVER AND STATUS/FOG
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG AN IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS
LINE. FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT AND DENSE FOG
IS BEING OBSERVED IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT MCCOOK AND IMPERIAL. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN COLORADO...
SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
PROVIDE THE LIFT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT. MOISTURE HAS
POOLED HERE AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING...FOG WAS EASILY ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FRONT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME DENSE FOG IN YUMA COUNTY COLORADO AND EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD
COMES IN THE FORM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS ISSUED. ACCORDING TO LATEST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS...STORMS MAY FIRE QUITE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AROUND TO JUST AFTER NOON...ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG A YUMA COLORADO TO
LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BY THIS TIME...A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE SHAPE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO CAPPING INVERSION.
SBCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
DCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG CHARACTERIZE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND MAX MOVE OVER...
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GROWS TO 35-55 KNOTS WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY
APPROACHING 200 M2/S2...POSSIBLY 300 M2/S2. LCLS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1000M...CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. IN THE END...DO EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY
WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE. LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
MOVING STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH AND EVENTUALLY FORM
INTO AN MCS OR TWO. AS THE MCS DEVELOPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
DIMINISHES. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AROUND TO SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE OTHER THREAT TO WATCH IS HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 1.50" TO 1.75" BY THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS. IN ADDITION...RIGHT MOVING
SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE. THIS INCREASES
THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
A CONCERN BUT UNSURE WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT TAKES SHAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE DRYLINE LOCATION. AS OF
NOW...ANTICIPATE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS LINE.

ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH A MOISTURE BOUNDARY STILL IN PLACE...
CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S LIKELY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KTOP 040925 CCA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
424 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGNANT LARGE SCALE REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF. TS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DIRECT IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS
LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 040925 CCA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
424 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGNANT LARGE SCALE REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF. TS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DIRECT IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS
LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 040925 CCA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
424 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGNANT LARGE SCALE REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF. TS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DIRECT IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS
LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 040834
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRENDING DOWN WITH PRECIP
ENDING...ALREADY SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
EXACT FORCING MECHANISM A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WEAK ECHO
FINE LINE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH NOT REALLY FITTING INTO A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST DATA. MAY BE A BIT OF PROPAGATION INTO
WEAK LLJ BUT ALSO NOTICED VAD AS A BACKING WIND PROFILE AROUND
10K FEET WHICH MAY BE SIGN OF UPPER LEVEL CAA/DESTABILIZATION.
HRRR/RAP STARTING TO CATCH ON A BIT TO THIS AREA AND HAVE PUSHED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH 10Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 040834
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRENDING DOWN WITH PRECIP
ENDING...ALREADY SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
EXACT FORCING MECHANISM A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WEAK ECHO
FINE LINE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH NOT REALLY FITTING INTO A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST DATA. MAY BE A BIT OF PROPAGATION INTO
WEAK LLJ BUT ALSO NOTICED VAD AS A BACKING WIND PROFILE AROUND
10K FEET WHICH MAY BE SIGN OF UPPER LEVEL CAA/DESTABILIZATION.
HRRR/RAP STARTING TO CATCH ON A BIT TO THIS AREA AND HAVE PUSHED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH 10Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 040834
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRENDING DOWN WITH PRECIP
ENDING...ALREADY SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
EXACT FORCING MECHANISM A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WEAK ECHO
FINE LINE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH NOT REALLY FITTING INTO A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST DATA. MAY BE A BIT OF PROPAGATION INTO
WEAK LLJ BUT ALSO NOTICED VAD AS A BACKING WIND PROFILE AROUND
10K FEET WHICH MAY BE SIGN OF UPPER LEVEL CAA/DESTABILIZATION.
HRRR/RAP STARTING TO CATCH ON A BIT TO THIS AREA AND HAVE PUSHED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH 10Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 040834
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRENDING DOWN WITH PRECIP
ENDING...ALREADY SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
EXACT FORCING MECHANISM A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WEAK ECHO
FINE LINE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH NOT REALLY FITTING INTO A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST DATA. MAY BE A BIT OF PROPAGATION INTO
WEAK LLJ BUT ALSO NOTICED VAD AS A BACKING WIND PROFILE AROUND
10K FEET WHICH MAY BE SIGN OF UPPER LEVEL CAA/DESTABILIZATION.
HRRR/RAP STARTING TO CATCH ON A BIT TO THIS AREA AND HAVE PUSHED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH 10Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE H5 RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UPON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
OUTER PERIPHERY AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 45 TO 55KT RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE THUS STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE INDICES LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ON
SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
TIMING BUT NOT BY A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ON
SUNDAY WITH BOTH MODELS IN AGREEMENT THEREFORE I KEPT THE POPS AT OR
BELOW 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY THETA E BOUNDARY ON MONDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KTOP 040830
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTETIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGANT LARGE SCAL REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF. TS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DIRECT IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS
LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS63 KICT 040830
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS. EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND
12Z/TUE FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR
VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS
AMOUNT OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU. COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTION REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE
EVENING. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUE EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  92  72 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      83  68  92  70 /  50  50  20  10
NEWTON          82  68  89  70 /  60  60  40  10
ELDORADO        83  68  90  70 /  60  60  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  69  92  72 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELL         84  68  91  69 /  40  50  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  68  92  70 /  40  50  10  10
SALINA          84  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  70  90  72 /  60  60  60  30
CHANUTE         88  69  88  70 /  70  70  60  30
IOLA            88  69  87  69 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  70  89  71 /  60  70  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 040830
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY- WEDNESDAY EVENING...COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY-TONIGHT:

ANTICIPATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CONSEQUENTLY...WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS BY MID-LATE MORNING.
THESE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT PRIMARILY INTO EAST/SOUTHEAST KS FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ALL- IN-ALL...THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING-
AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST KS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECTED MOVEMENT
WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO POTENTIALLY CLIP CENTRAL KS THIS
EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...AS ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST PRODUCES STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS BY PEAK HEATING. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO AS ADVERTISED BY THE
NAM/GFS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRIDAY-MONDAY:

A PERSISTENT/BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TURNING ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK- WEEKEND. MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S APPEAR REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME. THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN CONCERT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SERIES OF QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONES ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD PROMOTE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEEK INTO
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
AND NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS. EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND
12Z/TUE FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR
VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS
AMOUNT OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU. COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTION REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE
EVENING. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUE EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  69  92  72 /  60  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      83  68  92  70 /  50  50  20  10
NEWTON          82  68  89  70 /  60  60  40  10
ELDORADO        83  68  90  70 /  60  60  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  69  92  72 /  60  60  30  20
RUSSELL         84  68  91  69 /  40  50  20  10
GREAT BEND      84  68  92  70 /  40  50  10  10
SALINA          84  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
MCPHERSON       82  68  91  70 /  50  50  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  70  90  72 /  60  60  60  30
CHANUTE         88  69  88  70 /  70  70  60  30
IOLA            88  69  87  69 /  70  70  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    88  70  89  71 /  60  70  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 040830
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONVECTION THIS MORNING ONGOING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...FOLLOWING WHAT IS LIKELY THE BETTER CONVERGENCE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT ALONG THE 305K SURFACE.  SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SETTLED GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.

MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CURRENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE STAYS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE NE
BORDER THIS MORNING WHERE ITS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME WEAK CAPPING THAT FAR NORTH.  REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN KANSAS MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.  THINK THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH TIME FOR SUNSHINE TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY TO THE 1000-1500
J/KG RANGE...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK AND STILL THINK SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY AS STORMS COME IN
OVER A HEATED UP LATE MORNING AIR MASS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST IF THE RAIN
GETS IN FASTER...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PERIODS OF MOST CONCERN LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER AND REFIRE INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER WAVE STILL MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER FLOW, THERMAL GRADIENT, AND THUS ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR LATE SUMMER. SPECIFIC TRENDS IN CONVECTION REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT
AT LEAST A FEW AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN SEEM POSSIBLE IH NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY OF SIMILAR ORIENTATION. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME POTETIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IF A MID-LATE DAY BREAK CAN OCCUR
FOR MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. IF DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED, CAPE/SHEAR COMBO WOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS OVER THE THE 5000-15000 FOOT
LAYER. UPPER TROUGH`S PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE NEXT PERIOD OR TWO DRY. EXACT TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
PRECIP TRENDS WITH SREF T SPREAD AROUND 7 DEGREES.

NEXT WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER MODEST BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW OVER THE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY STAYING NEAR TO NOT FAR SOUTH
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STAGANT LARGE SCAL REGIME. WILL
CONTINUE SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND GIVEN NO CERTAIN DAY TO EXPECT PRECIP AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF. TS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DIRECT IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS
LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
231 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. A few supercells could form with hail up to golf ball size.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with low mid level shear
and high dewpoints with lower LCL`s. Today`s high temps will be
cooler east and north of Dodge in continued cloud and storm
chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of that area in lesser
clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds will continue south
to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For Wednesday, upper level warmer ridging builds into the western
High Plains with highs warming into the mid to upper 90s far west
near the Colorado border, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. A
shortwave trough that moved east of the area, will push a surface
trough across central Kansas, and surface winds will switch to the
west and north in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday, the ridge dampens as shortwave energy passes to the
north across Nebraska. Winds looks to be light and variable with
highs in the mid to upper 90s.

For the period of Friday into early next week, warmer ridging builds
back into the Plains on Friday into Monday with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of Dodge City on
Thursday, then again Saturday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  69 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  90  66  94  68 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  91  66  96  68 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  92  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  84  67  91  68 /  30  30  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. Today`s high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in
continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of
that area in lesser clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds
will continue south to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the
afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  68 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  90  66  94  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  91  66  95  68 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  68  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  84  66  90  68 /  30  30  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. Today`s high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in
continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of
that area in lesser clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds
will continue south to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the
afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  68 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  90  66  94  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  91  66  95  68 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  68  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  84  66  90  68 /  30  30  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. Today`s high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in
continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of
that area in lesser clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds
will continue south to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the
afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  68 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  90  66  94  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  91  66  95  68 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  68  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  84  66  90  68 /  30  30  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. Today`s high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in
continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of
that area in lesser clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds
will continue south to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the
afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  68 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  90  66  94  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  91  66  95  68 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  68  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  84  66  90  68 /  30  30  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. Today`s high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in
continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of
that area in lesser clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds
will continue south to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the
afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  68 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  90  66  94  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  91  66  95  68 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  68  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  84  66  90  68 /  30  30  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 040615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. Today`s high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in
continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of
that area in lesser clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds
will continue south to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the
afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  68 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  90  66  94  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  91  66  95  68 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  68  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  84  66  90  68 /  30  30  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KGLD 040554
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRENDING DOWN WITH PRECIP
ENDING...ALREADY SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
EXACT FORCING MECHANISM A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WEAK ECHO
FINE LINE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH NOT REALLY FITTING INTO A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST DATA. MAY BE A BIT OF PROPAGATION INTO
WEAK LLJ BUT ALSO NOTICED VAD AS A BACKING WIND PROFILE AROUND
10K FEET WHICH MAY BE SIGN OF UPPER LEVEL CAA/DESTABILIZATION.
HRRR/RAP STARTING TO CATCH ON A BIT TO THIS AREA AND HAVE PUSHED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH 10Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 040554
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRENDING DOWN WITH PRECIP
ENDING...ALREADY SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
EXACT FORCING MECHANISM A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WEAK ECHO
FINE LINE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH NOT REALLY FITTING INTO A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST DATA. MAY BE A BIT OF PROPAGATION INTO
WEAK LLJ BUT ALSO NOTICED VAD AS A BACKING WIND PROFILE AROUND
10K FEET WHICH MAY BE SIGN OF UPPER LEVEL CAA/DESTABILIZATION.
HRRR/RAP STARTING TO CATCH ON A BIT TO THIS AREA AND HAVE PUSHED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH 10Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 040554
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRENDING DOWN WITH PRECIP
ENDING...ALREADY SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
EXACT FORCING MECHANISM A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WEAK ECHO
FINE LINE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH NOT REALLY FITTING INTO A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST DATA. MAY BE A BIT OF PROPAGATION INTO
WEAK LLJ BUT ALSO NOTICED VAD AS A BACKING WIND PROFILE AROUND
10K FEET WHICH MAY BE SIGN OF UPPER LEVEL CAA/DESTABILIZATION.
HRRR/RAP STARTING TO CATCH ON A BIT TO THIS AREA AND HAVE PUSHED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH 10Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 040554
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1154 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS WERE TRENDING DOWN WITH PRECIP
ENDING...ALREADY SEEING SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.
EXACT FORCING MECHANISM A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AND WEAK ECHO
FINE LINE ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH NOT REALLY FITTING INTO A LOT OF
UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST DATA. MAY BE A BIT OF PROPAGATION INTO
WEAK LLJ BUT ALSO NOTICED VAD AS A BACKING WIND PROFILE AROUND
10K FEET WHICH MAY BE SIGN OF UPPER LEVEL CAA/DESTABILIZATION.
HRRR/RAP STARTING TO CATCH ON A BIT TO THIS AREA AND HAVE PUSHED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH 10Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF MFVR CIGS POSSIBLE AT MCK AROUND SUNRISE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. GLD FOR
THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
PRECIP POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 16Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KTOP 040448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF. TS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DIRECT IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS
LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 040448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF. TS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DIRECT IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS
LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 040448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF. TS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DIRECT IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS
LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 040448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF. TS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT TAF SITES. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH TAF SITES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DIRECT IMPACT TO TAF SITES IS
LOW SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR MOST LIKELY TIMING.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KICT 040439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CO AND SW KS AT THIS TIME.  MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE SE CORNER OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO A SMALL
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO STAY SW OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST.

EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT....WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING.  THINK MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY AT LEAST UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH KHUT AND KICT PROBABLY NOT SEEING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE. CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONES LOOK
OKAY WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING.  POSSIBLY A TAD TOO FAST...BUT THE
SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY TUES MORNING FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS.  EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND 12Z/TUE
FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS AMOUNT
OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE EVENING. SO WILL
GO WITH A VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    72  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 040439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CO AND SW KS AT THIS TIME.  MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE SE CORNER OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO A SMALL
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO STAY SW OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST.

EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT....WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING.  THINK MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY AT LEAST UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH KHUT AND KICT PROBABLY NOT SEEING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE. CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONES LOOK
OKAY WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING.  POSSIBLY A TAD TOO FAST...BUT THE
SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY TUES MORNING FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS.  EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND 12Z/TUE
FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS AMOUNT
OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE EVENING. SO WILL
GO WITH A VCTS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    72  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 040437
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1137 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Models continue to suggest an upper level shortwave moving through
Colorado this afternoon then through western and central Kansas
this evening into the overnight period. Thunderstorm chances
increase across eastern Colorado and far southwestern Kansas late
this afternoon then slide eastward as the MCS across the forecast
area. A few storms across far southwestern Kansas may become
severe late this afternoon into the evening hours with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concern. The best chance of
precipitation will be along the counties closest to the Oklahoma
border with lesser chances as you head northward. A second batch
of thunderstorms may form across central portions of the state
early tomorrow morning then transition eastward as the morning
progresses. Skies will be mostly cloudy this afternoon through the
overnight period with winds generally from a south to south
southeast direction. Skies clear across far western Kansas
tomorrow with continued cloudiness across central and south
central Kansas. There will be a slight chance of continuing
thunderstorms across central and south central Kansas during the
morning hours shifting farther north across central and west
central Kansas in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave
moves through northern Kansas and Nebraska. Winds continue to be
from a southerly direction tomorrow as a trough of low pressure
continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to range from the mid 60s across far western Kansas
to around 70 degrees across central and south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow look to range from the mid 80s across central
Kansas to lower 90s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  66  94 /  30  20  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  94 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  66  95 /  70  10  10   0
LBL  68  92  67  96 /  60  10  10  10
HYS  69  83  66  90 /  20  30  40  10
P28  70  88  69  94 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KDDC 040437
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1137 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Models continue to suggest an upper level shortwave moving through
Colorado this afternoon then through western and central Kansas
this evening into the overnight period. Thunderstorm chances
increase across eastern Colorado and far southwestern Kansas late
this afternoon then slide eastward as the MCS across the forecast
area. A few storms across far southwestern Kansas may become
severe late this afternoon into the evening hours with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concern. The best chance of
precipitation will be along the counties closest to the Oklahoma
border with lesser chances as you head northward. A second batch
of thunderstorms may form across central portions of the state
early tomorrow morning then transition eastward as the morning
progresses. Skies will be mostly cloudy this afternoon through the
overnight period with winds generally from a south to south
southeast direction. Skies clear across far western Kansas
tomorrow with continued cloudiness across central and south
central Kansas. There will be a slight chance of continuing
thunderstorms across central and south central Kansas during the
morning hours shifting farther north across central and west
central Kansas in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave
moves through northern Kansas and Nebraska. Winds continue to be
from a southerly direction tomorrow as a trough of low pressure
continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to range from the mid 60s across far western Kansas
to around 70 degrees across central and south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow look to range from the mid 80s across central
Kansas to lower 90s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  66  94 /  30  20  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  94 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  66  95 /  70  10  10   0
LBL  68  92  67  96 /  60  10  10  10
HYS  69  83  66  90 /  20  30  40  10
P28  70  88  69  94 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KICT 040239
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
939 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CO AND SW KS AT THIS TIME.  MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE SE CORNER OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO A SMALL
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO STAY SW OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST.

EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT....WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING.  THINK MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY AT LEAST UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH KHUT AND KICT PROBABLY NOT SEEING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE. CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONES LOOK
OKAY WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING.  POSSIBLY A TAD TOO FAST...BUT THE
SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY TUES MORNING FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS.  EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND 12Z/TUE
FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS AMOUNT
OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE EVENING....BUT THAT IS PAST
THIS TAF TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 040239
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
939 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CO AND SW KS AT THIS TIME.  MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE SE CORNER OF THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO A SMALL
COMPLEX OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO STAY SW OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST.

EXPECT THIS SHORTWAVE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT....WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING.  THINK MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY AT LEAST UNTIL WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH KHUT AND KICT PROBABLY NOT SEEING ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIP UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE ON TUE. CURRENT GRIDS AND ZONES LOOK
OKAY WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING.  POSSIBLY A TAD TOO FAST...BUT THE
SPIRIT OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOKS LIKE A RAINY TUES MORNING FOR MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS...AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS.  EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND 12Z/TUE
FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS AMOUNT
OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE EVENING....BUT THAT IS PAST
THIS TAF TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 032352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS.  EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND 12Z/TUE
FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS AMOUNT
OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE EVENING....BUT THAT IS PAST
THIS TAF TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 032352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS.  EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND 12Z/TUE
FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS AMOUNT
OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE EVENING....BUT THAT IS PAST
THIS TAF TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 032352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS.  EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND 12Z/TUE
FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS AMOUNT
OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE EVENING....BUT THAT IS PAST
THIS TAF TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 032352
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS.  EXPECT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY TUE MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WRN KS.  SO WILL GO WITH VCTS BY AROUND 12Z/TUE
FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA CHANCES TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA AND MVFR VSBYS FOR KICT/KHUT
FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LATE TUE AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS AS AMOUNT
OF RECOVERY FROM MORNING CONVECTION MAY KEEP AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES AT A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR KCNU.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
REDEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR TUE EVENING....BUT THAT IS PAST
THIS TAF TIME FRAME.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 032337
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOUTS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WHICH LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TAF FORECASTS. POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT GLD BEFORE 03Z...BUT THREAT IS CERTAINLY
NOT IMMINENT. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INITIAL PERIOD BEING VERY UNCERTAIN NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT.
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE NOTED AT KMCK...IF ANY CLEARING WERE TO
OCCUR SOME FOG POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING
THIS IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032337
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATERVAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM
00-04Z THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, THIS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS OUT OF THE TAF
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BELIEVE VCTS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 16Z
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...HELLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 032337
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOUTS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WHICH LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TAF FORECASTS. POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT GLD BEFORE 03Z...BUT THREAT IS CERTAINLY
NOT IMMINENT. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INITIAL PERIOD BEING VERY UNCERTAIN NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT.
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE NOTED AT KMCK...IF ANY CLEARING WERE TO
OCCUR SOME FOG POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING
THIS IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032337
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATERVAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM
00-04Z THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, THIS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS OUT OF THE TAF
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BELIEVE VCTS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 16Z
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...HELLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 032337
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOUTS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WHICH LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TAF FORECASTS. POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT GLD BEFORE 03Z...BUT THREAT IS CERTAINLY
NOT IMMINENT. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INITIAL PERIOD BEING VERY UNCERTAIN NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT.
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE NOTED AT KMCK...IF ANY CLEARING WERE TO
OCCUR SOME FOG POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING
THIS IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KTOP 032337
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATERVAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM
00-04Z THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, THIS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS OUT OF THE TAF
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BELIEVE VCTS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 16Z
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...HELLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 032337
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

MADE SOME CHANGES TO ONGOING PRECIP AND WX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOUTS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER/FARTHER NORTH INITIATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NO PARTICULAR MODEL REALLY DOING ALL THAT
WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL
SHOWING A LARGE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
ADVANCING TO THE NORTH...THINK THIS WILL AT BE A FORCING
MECHANISM FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
MAKE A RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE 01Z. STRONG H5 TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR
ASCENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE
PANHANDLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WHICH LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TAF FORECASTS. POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT GLD BEFORE 03Z...BUT THREAT IS CERTAINLY
NOT IMMINENT. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AT BOTH LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH INITIAL PERIOD BEING VERY UNCERTAIN NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT.
WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE NOTED AT KMCK...IF ANY CLEARING WERE TO
OCCUR SOME FOG POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN DYNAMIC SYSTEM APPROACHING
THIS IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KTOP 032337
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATERVAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE HRRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM
00-04Z THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, THIS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND BELIEVE
THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY.  HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCTS OUT OF THE TAF
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BELIEVE VCTS IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 16Z
WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...HELLER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Models continue to suggest an upper level shortwave moving through
Colorado this afternoon then through western and central Kansas
this evening into the overnight period. Thunderstorm chances
increase across eastern Colorado and far southwestern Kansas late
this afternoon then slide eastward as the MCS across the forecast
area. A few storms across far southwestern Kansas may become
severe late this afternoon into the evening hours with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concern. The best chance of
precipitation will be along the counties closest to the Oklahoma
border with lesser chances as you head northward. A second batch
of thunderstorms may form across central portions of the state
early tomorrow morning then transition eastward as the morning
progresses. Skies will be mostly cloudy this afternoon through the
overnight period with winds generally from a south to south
southeast direction. Skies clear across far western Kansas
tomorrow with continued cloudiness across central and south
central Kansas. There will be a slight chance of continuing
thunderstorms across central and south central Kansas during the
morning hours shifting farther north across central and west
central Kansas in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave
moves through northern Kansas and Nebraska. Winds continue to be
from a southerly direction tomorrow as a trough of low pressure
continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to range from the mid 60s across far western Kansas
to around 70 degrees across central and south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow look to range from the mid 80s across central
Kansas to lower 90s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight ahead of an
upper level trough which is forecast to cross western Kansas
between 03z and 12z Tuesday. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
cloud bases with these storms will vary from 2500 to 3500 ft AGL.
Timing of when the better opportunity for thunderstorms and lower
ceilings remain somewhat unclear but at this this time have
trended towards the latest RAP and HRRR. This would favor the
scattered thunderstorms in the Garden City area from 02z to 06z
Tuesday and in the Dodge City area from around 06z to near 12z
Tuesday. WInds overnight outside these thunderstorms will be south
to southeast at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  66  94 /  50  20  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  94 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  66  95 /  60  10  10   0
LBL  68  92  67  96 /  70  10  10  10
HYS  69  83  66  90 /  20  30  40  10
P28  70  88  69  94 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert



000
FXUS63 KDDC 032305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Models continue to suggest an upper level shortwave moving through
Colorado this afternoon then through western and central Kansas
this evening into the overnight period. Thunderstorm chances
increase across eastern Colorado and far southwestern Kansas late
this afternoon then slide eastward as the MCS across the forecast
area. A few storms across far southwestern Kansas may become
severe late this afternoon into the evening hours with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concern. The best chance of
precipitation will be along the counties closest to the Oklahoma
border with lesser chances as you head northward. A second batch
of thunderstorms may form across central portions of the state
early tomorrow morning then transition eastward as the morning
progresses. Skies will be mostly cloudy this afternoon through the
overnight period with winds generally from a south to south
southeast direction. Skies clear across far western Kansas
tomorrow with continued cloudiness across central and south
central Kansas. There will be a slight chance of continuing
thunderstorms across central and south central Kansas during the
morning hours shifting farther north across central and west
central Kansas in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave
moves through northern Kansas and Nebraska. Winds continue to be
from a southerly direction tomorrow as a trough of low pressure
continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to range from the mid 60s across far western Kansas
to around 70 degrees across central and south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow look to range from the mid 80s across central
Kansas to lower 90s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight ahead of an
upper level trough which is forecast to cross western Kansas
between 03z and 12z Tuesday. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
cloud bases with these storms will vary from 2500 to 3500 ft AGL.
Timing of when the better opportunity for thunderstorms and lower
ceilings remain somewhat unclear but at this this time have
trended towards the latest RAP and HRRR. This would favor the
scattered thunderstorms in the Garden City area from 02z to 06z
Tuesday and in the Dodge City area from around 06z to near 12z
Tuesday. WInds overnight outside these thunderstorms will be south
to southeast at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  66  94 /  50  20  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  94 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  66  95 /  60  10  10   0
LBL  68  92  67  96 /  70  10  10  10
HYS  69  83  66  90 /  20  30  40  10
P28  70  88  69  94 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATERVAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO
LONG LIVED, BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BUT HAVE
TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST DOMINATE DIRECTION IN THE TAFS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING SOME DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATERVAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO
LONG LIVED, BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BUT HAVE
TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST DOMINATE DIRECTION IN THE TAFS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING SOME DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATERVAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO
LONG LIVED, BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BUT HAVE
TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST DOMINATE DIRECTION IN THE TAFS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING SOME DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 032046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST TO EAST GENERALLY NEAR
INTERSTATE 70. MEASOANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON AT 20Z. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST WATERVAPOR LOOP DOES NOT SHOW ANY
APPROACHING WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER WEST IN
THE HIGH PLAINS A WEAK WAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WHILE ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY WAS MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO. EXPECT
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF
THIS OCCURRING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL, HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A LEAD WAVE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT WESTERN PLAINS
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHILE
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDERS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FOR TUESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ACROSS KANSAS WITH MODELS
FOCUSING BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGHS PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE MID
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF AN OTTAWA TO COUNCIL GROVE LINE. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. HIGHS COOLER WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS NOW COMING INTO
AGREEMENT THAT BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EC KS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING OUT OF EASTERN KS ON WEDNESDAY.

BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES THEN LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND
FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS IS SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...BEING QUICKER...AND DEVELOPING A
STRONGER LOW IN SOUTHERN KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING
PRECIP EARLIER IN EASTERN KS. HAVE GONE WITH OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS IN HOLDING OFF PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...LIKELY KEEPING THAT DAY
DRY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP NORTHEAST KS ON SOUTHERN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS FLOW. THUS...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH US FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE WITH WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING
THROUGH AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO
LONG LIVED, BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BUT HAVE
TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST DOMINATE DIRECTION IN THE TAFS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING SOME DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KICT 032039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME TSRA AFTER 12-14Z ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AS SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY ON TUESDAY. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 032039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
SMALL CHANCE FOR DIURNAL STORMS THROUGH SUNSET IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS BECOME FAIRLY LIKELY AFTER
DAYBREAK AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIR
AMOUNT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...BUT WOULD THINK THAT WESTERN HALF
WOULD REMAIN DRY IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION.

TUE NIGHT:
NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHAT MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON TO GENERATE
WIDESPD QFP TUE EVENING. INTIALLY SEEMED A BIT UNLIKELY  EARLY ON
IN WAKE OF DAYTIME PRECIPITATION. UPON FURTHER THOUGHT...PATTERN
WOULD FAVOR SOME OVERRUNNING OF RAIN COOLED AIR DURING THE NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THIS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY...
OPTED TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY HIGH BUT NOT ATTEMPT TO GET MORE SPECIFIC
WITH TIMING.

WED-THU:
ANTICIPATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT START OF
THIS PERIOD OVER EASTERN HALF...WHICH WOULD EXIT EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS AROUND SUNSET. DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED ON THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN EASTERN
SECTIONS ON WED WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT SHOULD REBOUND ALL
SECTIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF
CRITICAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
FORECAST. OPTED NOT TO MAKE CHANGES TO INTIALIZATION GRIDS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP FRI DRY...BUT FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL CHANCES. INITIALIZATION KEPT MON DRY..BUT GIVEN GFS
HAS EAST/WEST FRONT ACROSS FORECAST MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA...AND
ECMWF HAS IT ALONG OK/KS BORDER COULD SEE POPS ADDED THIS
PERIOD WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME TSRA AFTER 12-14Z ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AS SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY ON TUESDAY. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  84  70  90 /  30  60  60  20
HUTCHINSON      72  83  69  90 /  30  60  50  20
NEWTON          71  83  69  88 /  20  60  60  20
ELDORADO        72  83  70  87 /  20  60  60  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  84  70  91 /  30  60  50  20
RUSSELL         70  84  66  90 /  30  50  40  10
GREAT BEND      70  83  68  90 /  40  50  40  10
SALINA          72  85  70  89 /  20  60  60  20
MCPHERSON       71  83  69  89 /  30  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  85  72  90 /  20  60  60  40
CHANUTE         73  85  71  86 /  10  60  60  50
IOLA            72  85  71  84 /  10  60  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  85  71  88 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 032027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TORUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE
REGION THUSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING.  A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATIRES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024



000
FXUS63 KGLD 032027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TORUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE
REGION THUSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING.  A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATIRES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024



000
FXUS63 KGLD 032027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TORUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE
REGION THUSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING.  A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATIRES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024



000
FXUS63 KGLD 032027
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
TRANSITION INTO THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN SOME THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER TORUGH OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY AND THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE PANHANDLE
REGION THUSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE FA.  THE MAIN DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FA. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER PAST 06Z WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EASTERN FA
WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF H8-7
LAYER MEAN RH SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN POPS WILL BE NIL. SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
MORNING.  A SHORTWAVE IS ADVERTIZED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.  A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
SHIFTS INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

IN THE EXTENDED..(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY.  NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INITIATE STORMS ACROSS THE
FA DURING THIS TIME.  OTHER THAN SUNDAY, EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER A LARGE
PART OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATIRES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WARMING SLIGHTLY TO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024



000
FXUS63 KDDC 032022
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Models continue to suggest an upper level shortwave moving through
Colorado this afternoon then through western and central Kansas
this evening into the overnight period. Thunderstorm chances
increase across eastern Colorado and far southwestern Kansas late
this afternoon then slide eastward as the MCS across the forecast
area. A few storms across far southwestern Kansas may become
severe late this afternoon into the evening hours with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concern. The best chance of
precipitation will be along the counties closest to the Oklahoma
border with lesser chances as you head northward. A second batch
of thunderstorms may form across central portions of the state
early tomorrow morning then transition eastward as the morning
progresses. Skies will be mostly cloudy this afternoon through the
overnight period with winds generally from a south to south
southeast direction. Skies clear across far western Kansas
tomorrow with continued cloudiness across central and south
central Kansas. There will be a slight chance of continuing
thunderstorms across central and south central Kansas during the
morning hours shifting farther north across central and west
central Kansas in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave
moves through northern Kansas and Nebraska. Winds continue to be
from a southerly direction tomorrow as a trough of low pressure
continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to range from the mid 60s across far western Kansas
to around 70 degrees across central and south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow look to range from the mid 80s across central
Kansas to lower 90s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
AOA150. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
DDC AND GCK TERMINAL BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 8-10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  66  94 /  50  20  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  94 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  66  95 /  60  10  10   0
LBL  68  92  67  96 /  70  10  10  10
HYS  69  83  66  90 /  20  30  40  10
P28  70  88  69  94 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 032022
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Models continue to suggest an upper level shortwave moving through
Colorado this afternoon then through western and central Kansas
this evening into the overnight period. Thunderstorm chances
increase across eastern Colorado and far southwestern Kansas late
this afternoon then slide eastward as the MCS across the forecast
area. A few storms across far southwestern Kansas may become
severe late this afternoon into the evening hours with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concern. The best chance of
precipitation will be along the counties closest to the Oklahoma
border with lesser chances as you head northward. A second batch
of thunderstorms may form across central portions of the state
early tomorrow morning then transition eastward as the morning
progresses. Skies will be mostly cloudy this afternoon through the
overnight period with winds generally from a south to south
southeast direction. Skies clear across far western Kansas
tomorrow with continued cloudiness across central and south
central Kansas. There will be a slight chance of continuing
thunderstorms across central and south central Kansas during the
morning hours shifting farther north across central and west
central Kansas in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave
moves through northern Kansas and Nebraska. Winds continue to be
from a southerly direction tomorrow as a trough of low pressure
continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to range from the mid 60s across far western Kansas
to around 70 degrees across central and south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow look to range from the mid 80s across central
Kansas to lower 90s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
AOA150. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
DDC AND GCK TERMINAL BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 8-10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  66  94 /  50  20  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  94 /  40  10  10  10
EHA  65  92  66  95 /  60  10  10   0
LBL  68  92  67  96 /  70  10  10  10
HYS  69  83  66  90 /  20  30  40  10
P28  70  88  69  94 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KGLD 031958
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 031958
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ALREADY IN EASTERN COLORADO.
HOWEVER...RETURNS ON THE THE NORTHERN FRINGE ARE DISSIPATING
RATHER QUICKLY IN AN AREA OF REDUCED INSTABILITY PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...PERHAPS DUE TO PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
LIMITING INSOLATION. THIS IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND PERHAPS EVEN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40...AS COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20KTS...WITH
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING.

CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH WELL INTO NEBRASKA BY THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER...HOWEVER A FAIRLY SHARP LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SETS UP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AREA AND MAY BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
PARTICULARLY CONCERNING...UP TO 55KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS WILL
BE THE RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT
HINGES ON MORNING CLOUD EROSION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024



000
FXUS63 KTOP 031754
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STORMS OVER NW MO HAVE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ON THE WANE OVER THE
AREA.  SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS
SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS
HOUR.

FOR TODAY...STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.  WITH BOTH THE ONGOING COLD POOL AND
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT...WOULD ANTICIPATE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO SET
UP IN A E/W OR NW/SE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY.  CAP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...WITH HRRR
BREAKING OUT SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCOMING LIFT...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG AND DEEP THE BOUNDARY IS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.  PROBABILITIES ARE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP STARTING 18Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT BACK INTO NORTHERN MO / EASTERN NE...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIFTED POPS
MORE NORTH LATER IN THE EVENING AND KEPT THEM THERE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 09-12Z GIVEN WAVE COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THE BULK OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THAT WAVE
WILL RESIDE BEYOND THE INITIAL 2 PERIODS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THINK IT WILL STAY IN THE 80S UP NORTH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING
PRETTY WARM IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE WANE LATE IN THE DAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD INSOLATION.  MIDDLE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF I70 SEEM
LIKELY AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND COULD BE TOO COOL SOUTH IF RAIN
DOESN`T START UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BY TOMORROW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM COMPLEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN KS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE COVERAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND. IN FACT,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM THE NAM THAT THE COMPLEX WILL LOSE
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE COLD POOL
DRIVEN AND WEAKENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD ACTUALLY DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS. THE 850 MB
TRANSPORT VECTORS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL AID IN
THE PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM THIS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN KS. FOR NOW THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY GIVEN THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM AND WESTERN TX THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR OUR AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO
LONG LIVED, BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BUT HAVE
TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST DOMINATE DIRECTION IN THE TAFS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING SOME DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 031754
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STORMS OVER NW MO HAVE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ON THE WANE OVER THE
AREA.  SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS
SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS
HOUR.

FOR TODAY...STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.  WITH BOTH THE ONGOING COLD POOL AND
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT...WOULD ANTICIPATE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO SET
UP IN A E/W OR NW/SE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY.  CAP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...WITH HRRR
BREAKING OUT SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCOMING LIFT...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG AND DEEP THE BOUNDARY IS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.  PROBABILITIES ARE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP STARTING 18Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT BACK INTO NORTHERN MO / EASTERN NE...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIFTED POPS
MORE NORTH LATER IN THE EVENING AND KEPT THEM THERE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 09-12Z GIVEN WAVE COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THE BULK OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THAT WAVE
WILL RESIDE BEYOND THE INITIAL 2 PERIODS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THINK IT WILL STAY IN THE 80S UP NORTH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING
PRETTY WARM IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE WANE LATE IN THE DAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD INSOLATION.  MIDDLE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF I70 SEEM
LIKELY AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND COULD BE TOO COOL SOUTH IF RAIN
DOESN`T START UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BY TOMORROW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM COMPLEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN KS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE COVERAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND. IN FACT,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM THE NAM THAT THE COMPLEX WILL LOSE
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE COLD POOL
DRIVEN AND WEAKENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD ACTUALLY DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS. THE 850 MB
TRANSPORT VECTORS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL AID IN
THE PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM THIS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN KS. FOR NOW THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY GIVEN THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM AND WESTERN TX THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR OUR AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO
LONG LIVED, BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BUT HAVE
TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST DOMINATE DIRECTION IN THE TAFS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING SOME DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KTOP 031754
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STORMS OVER NW MO HAVE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ON THE WANE OVER THE
AREA.  SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS
SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS
HOUR.

FOR TODAY...STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.  WITH BOTH THE ONGOING COLD POOL AND
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT...WOULD ANTICIPATE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO SET
UP IN A E/W OR NW/SE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY.  CAP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...WITH HRRR
BREAKING OUT SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCOMING LIFT...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG AND DEEP THE BOUNDARY IS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.  PROBABILITIES ARE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP STARTING 18Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT BACK INTO NORTHERN MO / EASTERN NE...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIFTED POPS
MORE NORTH LATER IN THE EVENING AND KEPT THEM THERE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 09-12Z GIVEN WAVE COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THE BULK OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THAT WAVE
WILL RESIDE BEYOND THE INITIAL 2 PERIODS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THINK IT WILL STAY IN THE 80S UP NORTH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING
PRETTY WARM IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE WANE LATE IN THE DAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD INSOLATION.  MIDDLE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF I70 SEEM
LIKELY AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND COULD BE TOO COOL SOUTH IF RAIN
DOESN`T START UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BY TOMORROW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM COMPLEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN KS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE COVERAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND. IN FACT,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM THE NAM THAT THE COMPLEX WILL LOSE
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE COLD POOL
DRIVEN AND WEAKENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD ACTUALLY DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS. THE 850 MB
TRANSPORT VECTORS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL AID IN
THE PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM THIS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN KS. FOR NOW THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY GIVEN THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM AND WESTERN TX THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR OUR AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO
LONG LIVED, BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BUT HAVE
TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST DOMINATE DIRECTION IN THE TAFS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING SOME DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 031754
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STORMS OVER NW MO HAVE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ON THE WANE OVER THE
AREA.  SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS
SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS
HOUR.

FOR TODAY...STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.  WITH BOTH THE ONGOING COLD POOL AND
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT...WOULD ANTICIPATE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO SET
UP IN A E/W OR NW/SE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY.  CAP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...WITH HRRR
BREAKING OUT SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCOMING LIFT...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG AND DEEP THE BOUNDARY IS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.  PROBABILITIES ARE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP STARTING 18Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT BACK INTO NORTHERN MO / EASTERN NE...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIFTED POPS
MORE NORTH LATER IN THE EVENING AND KEPT THEM THERE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 09-12Z GIVEN WAVE COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THE BULK OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THAT WAVE
WILL RESIDE BEYOND THE INITIAL 2 PERIODS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THINK IT WILL STAY IN THE 80S UP NORTH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING
PRETTY WARM IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE WANE LATE IN THE DAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD INSOLATION.  MIDDLE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF I70 SEEM
LIKELY AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND COULD BE TOO COOL SOUTH IF RAIN
DOESN`T START UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BY TOMORROW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM COMPLEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN KS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE COVERAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND. IN FACT,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM THE NAM THAT THE COMPLEX WILL LOSE
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE COLD POOL
DRIVEN AND WEAKENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD ACTUALLY DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS. THE 850 MB
TRANSPORT VECTORS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL AID IN
THE PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM THIS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN KS. FOR NOW THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY GIVEN THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM AND WESTERN TX THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR OUR AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE FOR MOST IF NOT ALL THE TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE TOO
LONG LIVED, BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE AND LIGHT, BUT HAVE
TRIED TO PIN DOWN THE MOST DOMINATE DIRECTION IN THE TAFS. LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE 12Z TIME FRAME, THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOT AT SEEING SOME DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE WOULD
BE TOO LOW TO PUT ANYTHING IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KDDC 031728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARMER RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY,
RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF KANSAS, NEAR AND
NORTH OF DODGE CITY, THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WARMING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE MILD
AND SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
AOA150. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
DDC AND GCK TERMINAL BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 8-10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  20  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  50  70  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  50  70  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  89  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 031728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARMER RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY,
RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF KANSAS, NEAR AND
NORTH OF DODGE CITY, THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WARMING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE MILD
AND SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
AOA150. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
DDC AND GCK TERMINAL BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 8-10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  20  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  50  70  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  50  70  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  89  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 031728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARMER RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY,
RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF KANSAS, NEAR AND
NORTH OF DODGE CITY, THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WARMING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE MILD
AND SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
AOA150. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
DDC AND GCK TERMINAL BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 8-10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  20  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  50  70  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  50  70  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  89  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 031728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARMER RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY,
RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF KANSAS, NEAR AND
NORTH OF DODGE CITY, THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WARMING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE MILD
AND SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
AOA150. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
DDC AND GCK TERMINAL BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 8-10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  20  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  50  70  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  50  70  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  89  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KGLD 031715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A COUPLE 70S ALSO NOTED. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
BACKED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALOFT...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FIRST IS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST AS WELL.

MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST RUN...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PERCENTAGES AND
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST RUNS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WEAK
FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF LIFT SHOULD SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND SHIFT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
DID INCREASE POPS OVER EAST COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. GLANCING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AIDE IN STORM PERSISTENCE AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MEAGER...GENERALLY 20
TO 30 KNOTS. WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...CAPE
VALUES SHOULDN`T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH TODAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS AND MOST LIKELY...ONLY A FEW
STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS WITH RECENT DAYS.

TOMORROW...A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOW FORECAST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. WITH LESS ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THE THREAT OF
AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FOR TUESDAY SEEMS LESS LIKELY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BEING REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST COLORADO SHOULD TAKE A SOUTHEAST DIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE NEAR 35-50 KTS...INDICATING A HIGHER THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL THIS BEING SAID...FEEL THAT
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO MONITOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...FORECAST A HOT AND DRY DAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 031715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A COUPLE 70S ALSO NOTED. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
BACKED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALOFT...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FIRST IS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST AS WELL.

MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST RUN...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PERCENTAGES AND
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST RUNS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WEAK
FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF LIFT SHOULD SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND SHIFT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
DID INCREASE POPS OVER EAST COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. GLANCING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AIDE IN STORM PERSISTENCE AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MEAGER...GENERALLY 20
TO 30 KNOTS. WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...CAPE
VALUES SHOULDN`T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH TODAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS AND MOST LIKELY...ONLY A FEW
STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS WITH RECENT DAYS.

TOMORROW...A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOW FORECAST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. WITH LESS ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THE THREAT OF
AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FOR TUESDAY SEEMS LESS LIKELY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BEING REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST COLORADO SHOULD TAKE A SOUTHEAST DIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE NEAR 35-50 KTS...INDICATING A HIGHER THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL THIS BEING SAID...FEEL THAT
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO MONITOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...FORECAST A HOT AND DRY DAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 031715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A COUPLE 70S ALSO NOTED. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
BACKED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALOFT...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FIRST IS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST AS WELL.

MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST RUN...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PERCENTAGES AND
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST RUNS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WEAK
FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF LIFT SHOULD SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND SHIFT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
DID INCREASE POPS OVER EAST COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. GLANCING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AIDE IN STORM PERSISTENCE AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MEAGER...GENERALLY 20
TO 30 KNOTS. WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...CAPE
VALUES SHOULDN`T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH TODAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS AND MOST LIKELY...ONLY A FEW
STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS WITH RECENT DAYS.

TOMORROW...A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOW FORECAST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. WITH LESS ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THE THREAT OF
AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FOR TUESDAY SEEMS LESS LIKELY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BEING REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST COLORADO SHOULD TAKE A SOUTHEAST DIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE NEAR 35-50 KTS...INDICATING A HIGHER THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL THIS BEING SAID...FEEL THAT
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO MONITOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...FORECAST A HOT AND DRY DAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KGLD 031715
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1115 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A COUPLE 70S ALSO NOTED. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
BACKED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALOFT...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FIRST IS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST AS WELL.

MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST RUN...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PERCENTAGES AND
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST RUNS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WEAK
FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF LIFT SHOULD SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND SHIFT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
DID INCREASE POPS OVER EAST COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. GLANCING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AIDE IN STORM PERSISTENCE AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MEAGER...GENERALLY 20
TO 30 KNOTS. WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...CAPE
VALUES SHOULDN`T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH TODAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS AND MOST LIKELY...ONLY A FEW
STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS WITH RECENT DAYS.

TOMORROW...A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOW FORECAST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. WITH LESS ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THE THREAT OF
AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FOR TUESDAY SEEMS LESS LIKELY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BEING REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST COLORADO SHOULD TAKE A SOUTHEAST DIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE NEAR 35-50 KTS...INDICATING A HIGHER THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL THIS BEING SAID...FEEL THAT
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO MONITOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...FORECAST A HOT AND DRY DAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A SLIM
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING KGLD TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LACKING WITH MOST STORMS REMAINING SOUTH. OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
MAY IMPACT KGLD TOWARDS DAWN WITH MODELS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024




000
FXUS63 KICT 031711
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY:

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE LOW-MID
90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING A BIT LOWER IN THE 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE...AND JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MORE TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DESPITE MODEST/STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR TUESDAY...PERSISTENT
850- 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THOUGH. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...AS 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A STRONG
LOW- LEVEL JET IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A HANDFUL OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH LATEST ECMWF LINGERS ACTIVITY A
BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

IN GENERAL...LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (ALBEIT NOT ZERO) AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA. THE EXCEPTIONS PRECIPITATION-WISE MAY BE
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THESE CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS ALONG
NORTHEAST EDGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...SIDED CLOSER TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF/GEM MODELS FOR
NOW. THE WARMER GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...BUT IF IT VERIFIES
IT WOULD SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S LATE WEEK-WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME TSRA AFTER 12-14Z ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AS SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  72  86  69 /  10  30  60  60
HUTCHINSON      95  71  85  67 /  10  30  60  50
NEWTON          93  71  83  67 /  10  20  60  60
ELDORADO        94  71  85  68 /  10  20  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  86  70 /  10  30  60  50
RUSSELL         95  70  85  66 /  10  20  50  40
GREAT BEND      94  69  85  66 /  10  40  50  40
SALINA          93  71  86  68 /  10  20  50  60
MCPHERSON       94  71  85  67 /  10  30  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     95  73  87  71 /  10  10  60  60
CHANUTE         94  72  86  69 /  10  10  50  60
IOLA            94  72  86  68 /  10  10  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  73  86  70 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 031711
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY:

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE LOW-MID
90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING A BIT LOWER IN THE 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE...AND JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MORE TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DESPITE MODEST/STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR TUESDAY...PERSISTENT
850- 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THOUGH. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...AS 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A STRONG
LOW- LEVEL JET IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A HANDFUL OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH LATEST ECMWF LINGERS ACTIVITY A
BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

IN GENERAL...LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (ALBEIT NOT ZERO) AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA. THE EXCEPTIONS PRECIPITATION-WISE MAY BE
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THESE CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS ALONG
NORTHEAST EDGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...SIDED CLOSER TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF/GEM MODELS FOR
NOW. THE WARMER GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...BUT IF IT VERIFIES
IT WOULD SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S LATE WEEK-WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT. INTRODUCED SOME TSRA AFTER 12-14Z ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS AS SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  72  86  69 /  10  30  60  60
HUTCHINSON      95  71  85  67 /  10  30  60  50
NEWTON          93  71  83  67 /  10  20  60  60
ELDORADO        94  71  85  68 /  10  20  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  73  86  70 /  10  30  60  50
RUSSELL         95  70  85  66 /  10  20  50  40
GREAT BEND      94  69  85  66 /  10  40  50  40
SALINA          93  71  86  68 /  10  20  50  60
MCPHERSON       94  71  85  67 /  10  30  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     95  73  87  71 /  10  10  60  60
CHANUTE         94  72  86  69 /  10  10  50  60
IOLA            94  72  86  68 /  10  10  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    94  73  86  70 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 031134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A COUPLE 70S ALSO NOTED. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
BACKED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALOFT...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FIRST IS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST AS WELL.

MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST RUN...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PERCENTAGES AND
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST RUNS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WEAK
FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF LIFT SHOULD SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND SHIFT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
DID INCREASE POPS OVER EAST COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. GLANCING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AIDE IN STORM PERSISTENCE AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MEAGER...GENERALLY 20
TO 30 KNOTS. WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...CAPE
VALUES SHOULDN`T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH TODAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS AND MOST LIKELY...ONLY A FEW
STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS WITH RECENT DAYS.

TOMORROW...A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOW FORECAST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. WITH LESS ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THE THREAT OF
AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FOR TUESDAY SEEMS LESS LIKELY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BEING REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST COLORADO SHOULD TAKE A SOUTHEAST DIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE NEAR 35-50 KTS...INDICATING A HIGHER THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL THIS BEING SAID...FEEL THAT
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO MONITOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...FORECAST A HOT AND DRY DAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A LEE TROUGH AXIS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT...SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE A STORM MAY APPROACH KGLD. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
VCTS AS TRENDS INDICATE STORMS REMAIN SOUTH. OTHER CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...LOW
CONFIDENCE PREVENTED MENTION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FETCH PLUS PRECIP
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
BENEATH INVERSION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR CIGS ARE
OBSERVED AT KGLD BY TOMORROW MORNING AROUND/AFTER 09Z. A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW WILL MEAN NORTHEAST WINDS
INITIALLY...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 031134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A COUPLE 70S ALSO NOTED. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
BACKED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALOFT...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FIRST IS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST AS WELL.

MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST RUN...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PERCENTAGES AND
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST RUNS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WEAK
FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF LIFT SHOULD SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND SHIFT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
DID INCREASE POPS OVER EAST COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. GLANCING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AIDE IN STORM PERSISTENCE AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MEAGER...GENERALLY 20
TO 30 KNOTS. WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...CAPE
VALUES SHOULDN`T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH TODAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS AND MOST LIKELY...ONLY A FEW
STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS WITH RECENT DAYS.

TOMORROW...A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOW FORECAST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. WITH LESS ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THE THREAT OF
AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FOR TUESDAY SEEMS LESS LIKELY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BEING REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST COLORADO SHOULD TAKE A SOUTHEAST DIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE NEAR 35-50 KTS...INDICATING A HIGHER THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL THIS BEING SAID...FEEL THAT
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO MONITOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...FORECAST A HOT AND DRY DAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A LEE TROUGH AXIS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT...SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE A STORM MAY APPROACH KGLD. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
VCTS AS TRENDS INDICATE STORMS REMAIN SOUTH. OTHER CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...LOW
CONFIDENCE PREVENTED MENTION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FETCH PLUS PRECIP
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
BENEATH INVERSION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR CIGS ARE
OBSERVED AT KGLD BY TOMORROW MORNING AROUND/AFTER 09Z. A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW WILL MEAN NORTHEAST WINDS
INITIALLY...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 031134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A COUPLE 70S ALSO NOTED. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
BACKED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALOFT...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FIRST IS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST AS WELL.

MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST RUN...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PERCENTAGES AND
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST RUNS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WEAK
FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF LIFT SHOULD SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND SHIFT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
DID INCREASE POPS OVER EAST COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. GLANCING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AIDE IN STORM PERSISTENCE AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MEAGER...GENERALLY 20
TO 30 KNOTS. WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...CAPE
VALUES SHOULDN`T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH TODAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS AND MOST LIKELY...ONLY A FEW
STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS WITH RECENT DAYS.

TOMORROW...A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOW FORECAST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. WITH LESS ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THE THREAT OF
AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FOR TUESDAY SEEMS LESS LIKELY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BEING REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST COLORADO SHOULD TAKE A SOUTHEAST DIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE NEAR 35-50 KTS...INDICATING A HIGHER THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL THIS BEING SAID...FEEL THAT
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO MONITOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...FORECAST A HOT AND DRY DAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A LEE TROUGH AXIS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT...SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE A STORM MAY APPROACH KGLD. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
VCTS AS TRENDS INDICATE STORMS REMAIN SOUTH. OTHER CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...LOW
CONFIDENCE PREVENTED MENTION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FETCH PLUS PRECIP
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
BENEATH INVERSION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR CIGS ARE
OBSERVED AT KGLD BY TOMORROW MORNING AROUND/AFTER 09Z. A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW WILL MEAN NORTHEAST WINDS
INITIALLY...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 031134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO CIRRUS SLIDING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A COUPLE 70S ALSO NOTED. WINDS ARE
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH REMAINS
ENTRENCHED IN EAST COLORADO. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS
BACKED INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALOFT...A
COUPLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FIRST IS
OVER WESTERN COLORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST. THE SECOND IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SLOWLY TRANSITIONING NORTHEAST AS WELL.

MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THIS
FORECAST RUN...DID MAKE SOME CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PERCENTAGES AND
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS. GLOBAL AND HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST RUNS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE NEW MEXICO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. WEAK
FORCING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BUT THE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF LIFT SHOULD SPLIT AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS AND SHIFT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
DID INCREASE POPS OVER EAST COLORADO WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
MOVE IN FROM THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING. GLANCING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS DOES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AIDE IN STORM PERSISTENCE AS
CONVECTION SLIDES EAST. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MEAGER...GENERALLY 20
TO 30 KNOTS. WITH SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE...CAPE
VALUES SHOULDN`T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH TODAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS AND MOST LIKELY...ONLY A FEW
STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS WITH RECENT DAYS.

TOMORROW...A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR STORMS IS NOW FORECAST COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. WITH LESS ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED TODAY...THE THREAT OF
AIRMASS CONTAMINATION FOR TUESDAY SEEMS LESS LIKELY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION PERSISTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS BEING REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WEST COLORADO SHOULD TAKE A SOUTHEAST DIVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
INCREASE NEAR 35-50 KTS...INDICATING A HIGHER THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THAN IN RECENT DAYS. ALL THIS BEING SAID...FEEL THAT
TUESDAY IS THE DAY TO MONITOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...FORECAST A HOT AND DRY DAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND NO EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERAL
700MB SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT NOT WITH REGARDS THE STRENGTH OR TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND WEAKER.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE OUR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE. THE 0 TO 6KM BULK SHEAR AND CAPE
PROFILE LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ON BOTH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY AS FAR AS GUIDANCE IS
CONCERNED WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER AND SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
MORNING... A DRY DAY WILL LIKELY BE IN STORE FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG A LEE TROUGH AXIS AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT...SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE A STORM MAY APPROACH KGLD. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
VCTS AS TRENDS INDICATE STORMS REMAIN SOUTH. OTHER CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. ONCE AGAIN...LOW
CONFIDENCE PREVENTED MENTION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FETCH PLUS PRECIP
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
BENEATH INVERSION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MVFR CIGS ARE
OBSERVED AT KGLD BY TOMORROW MORNING AROUND/AFTER 09Z. A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT NOW WILL MEAN NORTHEAST WINDS
INITIALLY...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 031122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STORMS OVER NW MO HAVE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ON THE WANE OVER THE
AREA.  SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS
SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS
HOUR.

FOR TODAY...STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.  WITH BOTH THE ONGOING COLD POOL AND
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT...WOULD ANTICIPATE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO SET
UP IN A E/W OR NW/SE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY.  CAP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...WITH HRRR
BREAKING OUT SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCOMING LIFT...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG AND DEEP THE BOUNDARY IS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.  PROBABILITIES ARE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP STARTING 18Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT BACK INTO NORTHERN MO / EASTERN NE...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIFTED POPS
MORE NORTH LATER IN THE EVENING AND KEPT THEM THERE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 09-12Z GIVEN WAVE COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THE BULK OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THAT WAVE
WILL RESIDE BEYOND THE INITIAL 2 PERIODS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THINK IT WILL STAY IN THE 80S UP NORTH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING
PRETTY WARM IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE WANE LATE IN THE DAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD INSOLATION.  MIDDLE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF I70 SEEM
LIKELY AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND COULD BE TOO COOL SOUTH IF RAIN
DOESN`T START UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BY TOMORROW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM COMPLEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN KS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE COVERAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND. IN FACT,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM THE NAM THAT THE COMPLEX WILL LOSE
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE COLD POOL
DRIVEN AND WEAKENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD ACTUALLY DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS. THE 850 MB
TRANSPORT VECTORS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL AID IN
THE PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM THIS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN KS. FOR NOW THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY GIVEN THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM AND WESTERN TX THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR OUR AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR THIS FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS
FORM IN PEAK HEATING ALONG A FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL START A GROUP WITH THAT. ANTICIPATE WILL
SEE A BREAK LATER IN THE EVENING AND NEXT ISSUANCE CAN LIKELY TAKE
OUT...NEEDING ADDITIONAL POPS FOR LATER TIMES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67



000
FXUS63 KTOP 031122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STORMS OVER NW MO HAVE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ON THE WANE OVER THE
AREA.  SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS
SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS
HOUR.

FOR TODAY...STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.  WITH BOTH THE ONGOING COLD POOL AND
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT...WOULD ANTICIPATE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO SET
UP IN A E/W OR NW/SE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY.  CAP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...WITH HRRR
BREAKING OUT SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCOMING LIFT...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG AND DEEP THE BOUNDARY IS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.  PROBABILITIES ARE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP STARTING 18Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT BACK INTO NORTHERN MO / EASTERN NE...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIFTED POPS
MORE NORTH LATER IN THE EVENING AND KEPT THEM THERE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 09-12Z GIVEN WAVE COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THE BULK OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THAT WAVE
WILL RESIDE BEYOND THE INITIAL 2 PERIODS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THINK IT WILL STAY IN THE 80S UP NORTH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING
PRETTY WARM IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE WANE LATE IN THE DAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD INSOLATION.  MIDDLE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF I70 SEEM
LIKELY AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND COULD BE TOO COOL SOUTH IF RAIN
DOESN`T START UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BY TOMORROW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM COMPLEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN KS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE COVERAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND. IN FACT,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM THE NAM THAT THE COMPLEX WILL LOSE
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE COLD POOL
DRIVEN AND WEAKENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD ACTUALLY DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS. THE 850 MB
TRANSPORT VECTORS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL AID IN
THE PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM THIS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN KS. FOR NOW THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY GIVEN THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM AND WESTERN TX THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR OUR AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR THIS FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS
FORM IN PEAK HEATING ALONG A FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL START A GROUP WITH THAT. ANTICIPATE WILL
SEE A BREAK LATER IN THE EVENING AND NEXT ISSUANCE CAN LIKELY TAKE
OUT...NEEDING ADDITIONAL POPS FOR LATER TIMES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67




000
FXUS63 KTOP 031122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STORMS OVER NW MO HAVE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ON THE WANE OVER THE
AREA.  SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS
SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS
HOUR.

FOR TODAY...STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.  WITH BOTH THE ONGOING COLD POOL AND
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT...WOULD ANTICIPATE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO SET
UP IN A E/W OR NW/SE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY.  CAP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...WITH HRRR
BREAKING OUT SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCOMING LIFT...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG AND DEEP THE BOUNDARY IS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.  PROBABILITIES ARE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP STARTING 18Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT BACK INTO NORTHERN MO / EASTERN NE...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIFTED POPS
MORE NORTH LATER IN THE EVENING AND KEPT THEM THERE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 09-12Z GIVEN WAVE COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THE BULK OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THAT WAVE
WILL RESIDE BEYOND THE INITIAL 2 PERIODS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THINK IT WILL STAY IN THE 80S UP NORTH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING
PRETTY WARM IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE WANE LATE IN THE DAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD INSOLATION.  MIDDLE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF I70 SEEM
LIKELY AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND COULD BE TOO COOL SOUTH IF RAIN
DOESN`T START UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BY TOMORROW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM COMPLEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN KS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE COVERAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND. IN FACT,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM THE NAM THAT THE COMPLEX WILL LOSE
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE COLD POOL
DRIVEN AND WEAKENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD ACTUALLY DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS. THE 850 MB
TRANSPORT VECTORS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL AID IN
THE PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM THIS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN KS. FOR NOW THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY GIVEN THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM AND WESTERN TX THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR OUR AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR THIS FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS
FORM IN PEAK HEATING ALONG A FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL START A GROUP WITH THAT. ANTICIPATE WILL
SEE A BREAK LATER IN THE EVENING AND NEXT ISSUANCE CAN LIKELY TAKE
OUT...NEEDING ADDITIONAL POPS FOR LATER TIMES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67



000
FXUS63 KTOP 031122
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STORMS OVER NW MO HAVE LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY
PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO FAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF HASN`T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS FOR OUR AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ON THE WANE OVER THE
AREA.  SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IS
SITUATED ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER AT THIS
HOUR.

FOR TODAY...STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT THE
MODELS STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE.  WITH BOTH THE ONGOING COLD POOL AND
INCOMING SURFACE FRONT...WOULD ANTICIPATE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO SET
UP IN A E/W OR NW/SE ORIENTATION ACROSS THE CWA BY MID DAY.  CAP
ALONG AND NEAR THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME...WITH HRRR
BREAKING OUT SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID AFTERNOON.
NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INCOMING LIFT...SO MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON HOW STRONG AND DEEP THE BOUNDARY IS...WHICH AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP.  PROBABILITIES ARE
ENOUGH TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP STARTING 18Z ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL
FRONT STARTS TO RETREAT BACK INTO NORTHERN MO / EASTERN NE...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE LIFTED POPS
MORE NORTH LATER IN THE EVENING AND KEPT THEM THERE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.
HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP 09-12Z GIVEN WAVE COMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THE BULK OF RAIN CHANCES FROM THAT WAVE
WILL RESIDE BEYOND THE INITIAL 2 PERIODS.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THINK IT WILL STAY IN THE 80S UP NORTH ALONG AND
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN AREAS LIKELY GETTING
PRETTY WARM IF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS ARE ON THE WANE LATE IN THE DAY
AND ALLOW FOR GOOD INSOLATION.  MIDDLE 90S ALONG/SOUTH OF I70 SEEM
LIKELY AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND COULD BE TOO COOL SOUTH IF RAIN
DOESN`T START UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BY TOMORROW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM COMPLEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWESTERN KS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE COVERAGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND. IN FACT,
THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS FROM THE NAM THAT THE COMPLEX WILL LOSE
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE COLD POOL
DRIVEN AND WEAKENING IN SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER WAVE WILL
QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS WAVE WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD ACTUALLY DEEPEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT SOMEWHERE IN EASTERN KS. THE 850 MB
TRANSPORT VECTORS APPEAR TO MAXIMIZE ON THE NOSE OF A DECENT LOW
LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN KS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE WAVE, WHICH WILL AID IN
THE PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM THIS PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY
THE AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN KS. FOR NOW THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TUESDAY GIVEN THERE MAY BE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER NM AND WESTERN TX THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR OUR AREA AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS FOR
NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN MOST OF SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WILL KEEP TAFS VFR FOR THIS FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS
FORM IN PEAK HEATING ALONG A FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL START A GROUP WITH THAT. ANTICIPATE WILL
SEE A BREAK LATER IN THE EVENING AND NEXT ISSUANCE CAN LIKELY TAKE
OUT...NEEDING ADDITIONAL POPS FOR LATER TIMES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...67




000
FXUS63 KICT 031121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY:

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE LOW-MID
90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING A BIT LOWER IN THE 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE...AND JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MORE TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DESPITE MODEST/STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR TUESDAY...PERSISTENT
850- 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THOUGH. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...AS 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A STRONG
LOW- LEVEL JET IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A HANDFUL OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH LATEST ECMWF LINGERS ACTIVITY A
BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

IN GENERAL...LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (ALBEIT NOT ZERO) AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA. THE EXCEPTIONS PRECIPITATION-WISE MAY BE
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THESE CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS ALONG
NORTHEAST EDGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...SIDED CLOSER TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF/GEM MODELS FOR
NOW. THE WARMER GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...BUT IF IT VERIFIES
IT WOULD SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S LATE WEEK-WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
ROCKIES. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL MEANDER ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  72  86  69 /  10  30  60  60
HUTCHINSON      95  71  85  67 /  10  30  60  50
NEWTON          94  71  83  67 /  10  20  60  60
ELDORADO        94  71  85  68 /  10  20  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  86  70 /  10  30  60  50
RUSSELL         95  70  85  66 /  10  20  50  40
GREAT BEND      94  69  85  66 /  10  40  50  40
SALINA          96  71  86  68 /  10  20  50  60
MCPHERSON       95  71  85  67 /  10  30  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     94  73  87  71 /  10  10  60  60
CHANUTE         94  72  86  69 /  10  10  50  60
IOLA            94  72  86  68 /  10  10  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    95  73  86  70 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 031121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY:

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE LOW-MID
90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING A BIT LOWER IN THE 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE...AND JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MORE TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DESPITE MODEST/STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR TUESDAY...PERSISTENT
850- 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THOUGH. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...AS 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A STRONG
LOW- LEVEL JET IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A HANDFUL OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH LATEST ECMWF LINGERS ACTIVITY A
BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

IN GENERAL...LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (ALBEIT NOT ZERO) AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA. THE EXCEPTIONS PRECIPITATION-WISE MAY BE
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THESE CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS ALONG
NORTHEAST EDGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...SIDED CLOSER TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF/GEM MODELS FOR
NOW. THE WARMER GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...BUT IF IT VERIFIES
IT WOULD SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S LATE WEEK-WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
ROCKIES. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL MEANDER ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  72  86  69 /  10  30  60  60
HUTCHINSON      95  71  85  67 /  10  30  60  50
NEWTON          94  71  83  67 /  10  20  60  60
ELDORADO        94  71  85  68 /  10  20  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  86  70 /  10  30  60  50
RUSSELL         95  70  85  66 /  10  20  50  40
GREAT BEND      94  69  85  66 /  10  40  50  40
SALINA          96  71  86  68 /  10  20  50  60
MCPHERSON       95  71  85  67 /  10  30  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     94  73  87  71 /  10  10  60  60
CHANUTE         94  72  86  69 /  10  10  50  60
IOLA            94  72  86  68 /  10  10  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    95  73  86  70 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 031121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY:

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE LOW-MID
90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING A BIT LOWER IN THE 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE...AND JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MORE TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DESPITE MODEST/STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR TUESDAY...PERSISTENT
850- 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THOUGH. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...AS 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A STRONG
LOW- LEVEL JET IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A HANDFUL OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH LATEST ECMWF LINGERS ACTIVITY A
BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

IN GENERAL...LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (ALBEIT NOT ZERO) AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA. THE EXCEPTIONS PRECIPITATION-WISE MAY BE
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THESE CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS ALONG
NORTHEAST EDGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...SIDED CLOSER TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF/GEM MODELS FOR
NOW. THE WARMER GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...BUT IF IT VERIFIES
IT WOULD SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S LATE WEEK-WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
ROCKIES. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL MEANDER ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  72  86  69 /  10  30  60  60
HUTCHINSON      95  71  85  67 /  10  30  60  50
NEWTON          94  71  83  67 /  10  20  60  60
ELDORADO        94  71  85  68 /  10  20  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  86  70 /  10  30  60  50
RUSSELL         95  70  85  66 /  10  20  50  40
GREAT BEND      94  69  85  66 /  10  40  50  40
SALINA          96  71  86  68 /  10  20  50  60
MCPHERSON       95  71  85  67 /  10  30  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     94  73  87  71 /  10  10  60  60
CHANUTE         94  72  86  69 /  10  10  50  60
IOLA            94  72  86  68 /  10  10  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    95  73  86  70 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 031121
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOCUS AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND A WARMING TREND
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND.

TODAY:

SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE LOW-MID
90S...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES WILL BE TEMPERED IN THE MID-UPPER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING A BIT LOWER IN THE 60S. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE...AND JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH AND
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MORE TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DESPITE MODEST/STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FOR TUESDAY...PERSISTENT
850- 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW STRONG/SEVERE LEVELS...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE CHANCES BY LATE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THOUGH. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...AS 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAMPS UP. IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT...INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A STRONG
LOW- LEVEL JET IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
A HANDFUL OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KS WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH LATEST ECMWF LINGERS ACTIVITY A
BIT LONGER WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

IN GENERAL...LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (ALBEIT NOT ZERO) AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE TREND LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA. THE EXCEPTIONS PRECIPITATION-WISE MAY BE
THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY FRIDAY...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THESE CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN/NORTHEAST KS ALONG
NORTHEAST EDGE OF WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...SIDED CLOSER TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF/GEM MODELS FOR
NOW. THE WARMER GFS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER...BUT IF IT VERIFIES
IT WOULD SUPPORT HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S LATE WEEK-WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
ROCKIES. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. A
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KANSAS WILL MEANDER ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE PERIOD.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  72  86  69 /  10  30  60  60
HUTCHINSON      95  71  85  67 /  10  30  60  50
NEWTON          94  71  83  67 /  10  20  60  60
ELDORADO        94  71  85  68 /  10  20  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  86  70 /  10  30  60  50
RUSSELL         95  70  85  66 /  10  20  50  40
GREAT BEND      94  69  85  66 /  10  40  50  40
SALINA          96  71  86  68 /  10  20  50  60
MCPHERSON       95  71  85  67 /  10  30  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     94  73  87  71 /  10  10  60  60
CHANUTE         94  72  86  69 /  10  10  50  60
IOLA            94  72  86  68 /  10  10  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    95  73  86  70 /  10  10  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARMER RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY,
RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF KANSAS, NEAR AND
NORTH OF DODGE CITY, THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WARMING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE MILD
AND SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. STILL EXPECTING EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR KGCK/KDDC. WILL KEEP THE PROB30 GOING
FOR THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS
IF +TSRA DEVELOPS/MOVES RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL. WILL TREND ALL TO VFR
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SE/S 5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  30  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  50  60  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  50  60  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  89  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 031100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARMER RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY,
RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF KANSAS, NEAR AND
NORTH OF DODGE CITY, THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WARMING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE MILD
AND SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. STILL EXPECTING EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR KGCK/KDDC. WILL KEEP THE PROB30 GOING
FOR THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS
IF +TSRA DEVELOPS/MOVES RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL. WILL TREND ALL TO VFR
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SE/S 5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  30  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  50  60  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  50  60  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  89  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 031100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARMER RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY,
RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF KANSAS, NEAR AND
NORTH OF DODGE CITY, THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WARMING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE MILD
AND SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. STILL EXPECTING EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR KGCK/KDDC. WILL KEEP THE PROB30 GOING
FOR THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS
IF +TSRA DEVELOPS/MOVES RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL. WILL TREND ALL TO VFR
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SE/S 5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  30  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  50  60  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  50  60  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  89  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 031100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM COLORADO,
THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO WESTERN COLORADO CURRENTLY. MODELS VARY WIDELY IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT. WPC FORECAST HAS BEST CHANCES FROM
NEAR DODGE CITY AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND WEST,
THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MARGINALLY SEVERE MCS
(MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NEAR SEVERE HAIL, UP TO QUARTER SIZE, GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BUNKER STORM MOTIONS ARE VERY
SLOW, AND THAT SUPPORTS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. NAM, GFS, AND WPC
PAINT AROUND AN INCH OR GREATER QPF SOUTH AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AND
LOOKS REASONABLE. THUNDERSTORMS END NEAR DODGE CITY BY DAWN AND
COULD CONTINUE EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FOR TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER AND RANGE FROM AROUND 90 AT ELKHART TO
THE MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY INTO SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL WARMER RIDGING
BUILDS FROM THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AFTER SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENS THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY,
RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF KANSAS, NEAR AND
NORTH OF DODGE CITY, THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, WARMING BACK
INTO THE MID 90S FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE MILD
AND SEASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TAF PD. STILL EXPECTING EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOR KGCK/KDDC. WILL KEEP THE PROB30 GOING
FOR THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS
IF +TSRA DEVELOPS/MOVES RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL. WILL TREND ALL TO VFR
FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE SE/S 5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  87  66 /  20  60  20  10
GCK  90  66  87  65 /  30  60  10  10
EHA  87  64  91  66 /  50  60  10  10
LBL  89  67  91  67 /  50  60  10  10
HYS  94  68  85  65 /  10  50  50  30
P28  93  70  89  69 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...SUGDEN




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