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000
FXUS63 KDDC 010947
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A convective outflow boundary from eastern Colorado convection was
racing across western Kansas early this morning with a few elevated
showers and isolated lightning strikes well behind the features. In
the near term a few isolated showers could linger into the highway
283 corridor towards 3 or 4 am however most of the area will remain
dry. The pattern is not supportive of fog this morning with better
near surface layer mixing on southerly surface winds.

A 590 DM 500 mb ridge axis will remain anchored across the West
Texas/OK/KS region over the next couple of days. as a result the
impetus for any convective activity will be weak shortwave energy
and surface based differential heating over Colorado with weak
steering flow but favorable lapse rates into Kansas. The best signal
for convection from the NAM/GFS/ECMWF supports the northern half or
so of our forecast area at best. Again with virtually no shear to
work with and generally weak instability, no severe weather will
occur however pops were maintained late Tuesday night again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Heading into the extended period, the pattern continues to support
just about 1 standard deviation warmer than normal for high
temperature. Even warmer overnight lows are indicated by the gfs mos
numbers, with upper 60s common through next Tuesday, September 8.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF tend to flatten the upper ridge, with
faster flow and better baroclinicity over the Northern Plains and
Nebraska. This setup should be favorable for several rounds of
convective activity of our area, as well as to more localized
shortwave energy aiding small scale lift over western Kansas.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  70  94  69 /   0  20  10  10
GCK  94  67  95  67 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  93  66  94  67 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  95  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  69  96  70 /   0  20  10  10
P28  96  72  95  71 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 010947
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A convective outflow boundary from eastern Colorado convection was
racing across western Kansas early this morning with a few elevated
showers and isolated lightning strikes well behind the features. In
the near term a few isolated showers could linger into the highway
283 corridor towards 3 or 4 am however most of the area will remain
dry. The pattern is not supportive of fog this morning with better
near surface layer mixing on southerly surface winds.

A 590 DM 500 mb ridge axis will remain anchored across the West
Texas/OK/KS region over the next couple of days. as a result the
impetus for any convective activity will be weak shortwave energy
and surface based differential heating over Colorado with weak
steering flow but favorable lapse rates into Kansas. The best signal
for convection from the NAM/GFS/ECMWF supports the northern half or
so of our forecast area at best. Again with virtually no shear to
work with and generally weak instability, no severe weather will
occur however pops were maintained late Tuesday night again.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Heading into the extended period, the pattern continues to support
just about 1 standard deviation warmer than normal for high
temperature. Even warmer overnight lows are indicated by the gfs mos
numbers, with upper 60s common through next Tuesday, September 8.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF tend to flatten the upper ridge, with
faster flow and better baroclinicity over the Northern Plains and
Nebraska. This setup should be favorable for several rounds of
convective activity of our area, as well as to more localized
shortwave energy aiding small scale lift over western Kansas.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  70  94  69 /   0  20  10  10
GCK  94  67  95  67 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  93  66  94  67 /  10  20  10  10
LBL  95  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  69  96  70 /   0  20  10  10
P28  96  72  95  71 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell


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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010833
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A DEEP AND
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A COLD LOW FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER OUR AREA AND
STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS SETS UP A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE AREA FRO THE PACIFIC REGION...
MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE
THROUGH IS FLOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH REPEATED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL... WITH THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.

AT THE START OF THE WEEK A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S ON LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION THREAT REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. MENTIONED
VCTS AT KGLD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH AND VCSH AT KMCK
WHERE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD. OUTFLOW IS
APPROACHING KMCK BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY A WIND
SHIFT WITHOUT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS DISSIPATING REMNANT CLOUD COVER
SPREADS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EDGES BACK NORTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010833
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A DEEP AND
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A COLD LOW FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER OUR AREA AND
STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS SETS UP A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE AREA FRO THE PACIFIC REGION...
MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE
THROUGH IS FLOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH REPEATED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL... WITH THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.

AT THE START OF THE WEEK A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S ON LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION THREAT REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. MENTIONED
VCTS AT KGLD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH AND VCSH AT KMCK
WHERE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD. OUTFLOW IS
APPROACHING KMCK BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY A WIND
SHIFT WITHOUT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS DISSIPATING REMNANT CLOUD COVER
SPREADS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EDGES BACK NORTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010833
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A DEEP AND
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A COLD LOW FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER OUR AREA AND
STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS SETS UP A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE AREA FRO THE PACIFIC REGION...
MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE
THROUGH IS FLOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH REPEATED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL... WITH THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.

AT THE START OF THE WEEK A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S ON LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION THREAT REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. MENTIONED
VCTS AT KGLD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH AND VCSH AT KMCK
WHERE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD. OUTFLOW IS
APPROACHING KMCK BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY A WIND
SHIFT WITHOUT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS DISSIPATING REMNANT CLOUD COVER
SPREADS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EDGES BACK NORTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH


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000
FXUS63 KTOP 010825
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A broad upper ridge extended from the southwest US, east-northeast
across the southern plans into the southern Great Lakes States. An
upper level trough was amplifying across the Pacific Northwest. IR
satellite imagery showed a band of mid-level moisture extending from
western Mexico, north-northeast across the NM into the central high
plains then northeast into the upper midwest along the western
periphery of the upper level ridge axis.

Early this morning a weak upper trough was lifting northeast across
northwest KS. The weak ascent combined with weak isentropic lift was
causing some elevated showers and thunderstorms from northwest KS
northward into western NE. The HRRR tries to move some elevated
showers towards north central KS this morning. However, as the
boundary layer mixes the isentropic lift should weaken enough that
these showers should dissipate.

The ARW run of the WRF model shows the weak H5 trough across
northwest KS slowly tracking east-northeast across north central KS
and central NE this afternoon. The ARW does show a few elevated
showers or storms developing across Republic and Cloud counties
after 21Z. I kept a 14 pop in for the far northwest counties in case
the ARW solution were to verify. Most of the area will see mostly
sunny skies though the mid-level moisture plume may shift east into
the western counties of the CWA which would increase the high and
mid level cloud cover this afternoon. Highs across north central KS
may only reach near 90 degrees with lower to mid 90s across the
remainder of the CWA.

Tonight, The NAM and GFS show a second minor H5 trough lifting
northeast across northwest KS into central NE, around periphery of
the broad upper ridge axis. Both models show some isentropic lift
developing after 3Z across the northern counties of the CWA and
combined with weak ascent ahead of the H5 trough there could be a few
elevated showers or thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show bases may
be around 10,000 feet with some weak upglide at the 310 theta
surface. An increasing LLJ may also help to provide some ascent for
parcels to reach their LFC during the late evening and early morning
hours of Wednesday across the western and northern counties of the
CWA.

Both the ARW and NMM WRF model solutions show no QPF developing
Tonight with the better ascent and isentropic lift shifting
northward across central NE. Due to the model solution discrepancies
I will only go with slight chance pops tonight for the western and
northern counties of the CWA. The best chances for elevated showers
and storms will be along the NE border. overnight lows will be
around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

On Wednesday morning there will still be a slight chance of a
lingering shower or storm in north central KS as the mid-level
shortwave continues to track eastward over southern NE and northern
KS. Isentropic lift appears to be rather weak during this period,
but there may be additional lift from a weakening low-level jet that
veers over that area in the morning hours. Soundings show dry air in
the lower levels, which could enhance the downward momentum transfer
of the the low-level jet to the surface through evaporation. These
wind gusts would be sub-severe since the jet speeds are less than 40
mph. The remainder of the day should be dry with general subsidence
behind the departing shortwave. The surface pressure gradient is
forecast to increase across eastern KS through out the day so expect
wind speeds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. On Thursday
morning models are depicting a similar scenario for north central KS
although it is hard to discern any obvious shortwave in the models,
and the isentropic lift appears weak again. The pressure gradient
remains strong across the region so expect similar windy conditions
during the day Thursday. The pattern is not forecast to change much
with southwest flow aloft locked in place until next weekend. Later
this week a strong mid/upper level system will track over the
Pacific NW and eventually the northern Rockies. Long term models
lift the remaining energy from this wave over the northern plains
sometime early next week given some timing differences. This should
send a cold front towards the area bringing the better chances for
showers and storms. The GFS is the fastest and further east with the
track of the wave therefore advancing the front quicker. There could
be a brief slight cool down behind the front before the mid/upper
ridge builds back over the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Lower boundary
layer will remain mixed through sunrise so not expecting any
mist to form. Surface winds should average around 8kts through 14Z
with a gradual increase above the surface so not including any
LLWS at this time as low level jet will be stronger west of the
terminals. Winds increase to around 12kts by 16Z with gusts to
22kts, then decrease to around 8 kts after 00Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...53



000
FXUS63 KTOP 010825
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A broad upper ridge extended from the southwest US, east-northeast
across the southern plans into the southern Great Lakes States. An
upper level trough was amplifying across the Pacific Northwest. IR
satellite imagery showed a band of mid-level moisture extending from
western Mexico, north-northeast across the NM into the central high
plains then northeast into the upper midwest along the western
periphery of the upper level ridge axis.

Early this morning a weak upper trough was lifting northeast across
northwest KS. The weak ascent combined with weak isentropic lift was
causing some elevated showers and thunderstorms from northwest KS
northward into western NE. The HRRR tries to move some elevated
showers towards north central KS this morning. However, as the
boundary layer mixes the isentropic lift should weaken enough that
these showers should dissipate.

The ARW run of the WRF model shows the weak H5 trough across
northwest KS slowly tracking east-northeast across north central KS
and central NE this afternoon. The ARW does show a few elevated
showers or storms developing across Republic and Cloud counties
after 21Z. I kept a 14 pop in for the far northwest counties in case
the ARW solution were to verify. Most of the area will see mostly
sunny skies though the mid-level moisture plume may shift east into
the western counties of the CWA which would increase the high and
mid level cloud cover this afternoon. Highs across north central KS
may only reach near 90 degrees with lower to mid 90s across the
remainder of the CWA.

Tonight, The NAM and GFS show a second minor H5 trough lifting
northeast across northwest KS into central NE, around periphery of
the broad upper ridge axis. Both models show some isentropic lift
developing after 3Z across the northern counties of the CWA and
combined with weak ascent ahead of the H5 trough there could be a few
elevated showers or thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show bases may
be around 10,000 feet with some weak upglide at the 310 theta
surface. An increasing LLJ may also help to provide some ascent for
parcels to reach their LFC during the late evening and early morning
hours of Wednesday across the western and northern counties of the
CWA.

Both the ARW and NMM WRF model solutions show no QPF developing
Tonight with the better ascent and isentropic lift shifting
northward across central NE. Due to the model solution discrepancies
I will only go with slight chance pops tonight for the western and
northern counties of the CWA. The best chances for elevated showers
and storms will be along the NE border. overnight lows will be
around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

On Wednesday morning there will still be a slight chance of a
lingering shower or storm in north central KS as the mid-level
shortwave continues to track eastward over southern NE and northern
KS. Isentropic lift appears to be rather weak during this period,
but there may be additional lift from a weakening low-level jet that
veers over that area in the morning hours. Soundings show dry air in
the lower levels, which could enhance the downward momentum transfer
of the the low-level jet to the surface through evaporation. These
wind gusts would be sub-severe since the jet speeds are less than 40
mph. The remainder of the day should be dry with general subsidence
behind the departing shortwave. The surface pressure gradient is
forecast to increase across eastern KS through out the day so expect
wind speeds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. On Thursday
morning models are depicting a similar scenario for north central KS
although it is hard to discern any obvious shortwave in the models,
and the isentropic lift appears weak again. The pressure gradient
remains strong across the region so expect similar windy conditions
during the day Thursday. The pattern is not forecast to change much
with southwest flow aloft locked in place until next weekend. Later
this week a strong mid/upper level system will track over the
Pacific NW and eventually the northern Rockies. Long term models
lift the remaining energy from this wave over the northern plains
sometime early next week given some timing differences. This should
send a cold front towards the area bringing the better chances for
showers and storms. The GFS is the fastest and further east with the
track of the wave therefore advancing the front quicker. There could
be a brief slight cool down behind the front before the mid/upper
ridge builds back over the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Lower boundary
layer will remain mixed through sunrise so not expecting any
mist to form. Surface winds should average around 8kts through 14Z
with a gradual increase above the surface so not including any
LLWS at this time as low level jet will be stronger west of the
terminals. Winds increase to around 12kts by 16Z with gusts to
22kts, then decrease to around 8 kts after 00Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...53



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 010739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 010739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 010739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS ORIENTATION THRU THE
MID-WEEK PERIODS. A WEAK MESOSCALE ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST TODAY AND FRINGE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF KANSAS
TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSED JUST EAST OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROF OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH COULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL
IN THE GOING FORECAST. DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL EACH AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE LEE TROF FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH THURSDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS...SO WILL
TAKE A PERSISTENCE APPROACH TO MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES. WHILE
CHANCES FOR EVENING/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
NON-ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT
STRONGER/FURTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
FAR NORTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY. HOWEVER IT IS DEBATABLE
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS KANSAS AS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD HOLD SWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. FOR NOW WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THAT MAY DEVELOP
GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          93  70  93  70 /   0  10  10   0
ELDORADO        92  69  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  70  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      96  70  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
SALINA          95  71  95  71 /  10  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       95  70  95  70 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     92  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  69  91  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010627
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
127 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  93  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  95  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  71  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
P28  95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010627
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
127 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  93  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  95  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  71  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
P28  95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010627
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
127 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  93  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  95  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  71  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
P28  95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010627
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
127 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  93  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  95  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  71  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
P28  95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010627
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
127 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  93  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  95  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  71  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
P28  95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010627
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
127 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Mainly a VFR flight category forecast this time around, with only a
few isolated showers moving across the area this morning. The
prevailing surface winds will be more southerly and a little
stronger than yesterday, and as a result, providuing just enough
mixing to, in addtion to invading mid lvel cloudiness, prevent
radiation fog.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  70  94  70 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  94  68  96  69 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  93  67  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  95  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  95  71  96  71 /  10  20  10  10
P28  95  72  95  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010540
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION THREAT REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. MENTIONED
VCTS AT KGLD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH AND VCSH AT KMCK
WHERE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD. OUTFLOW IS
APPROACHING KMCK BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY A WIND
SHIFT WITHOUT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS DISSIPATING REMNANT CLOUD COVER
SPREADS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EDGES BACK NORTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 010540
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION THREAT REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. MENTIONED
VCTS AT KGLD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH AND VCSH AT KMCK
WHERE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD. OUTFLOW IS
APPROACHING KMCK BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY A WIND
SHIFT WITHOUT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS DISSIPATING REMNANT CLOUD COVER
SPREADS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EDGES BACK NORTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 010540
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION THREAT REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. MENTIONED
VCTS AT KGLD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH AND VCSH AT KMCK
WHERE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD. OUTFLOW IS
APPROACHING KMCK BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY A WIND
SHIFT WITHOUT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS DISSIPATING REMNANT CLOUD COVER
SPREADS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EDGES BACK NORTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Water vapor imagery centers an expansive mid level ridge across
the southern and central plains, in between the broad
southwesterly flow to the northwest, and the tropical moisture
remnants to the southeast. At the surface this evening, weak upper
trough passes northeast over Nebraska. Not expecting any precip to
occur over the CWA, however sfc winds may stay up for a few hours
around 10 mph.

For tomorrow, expect similar conditions with perhaps a more
deeply mixed boundary layer as the trough axis over eastern CO
deepens east into central KS. South winds at 10 to 15 mph are
likely with gusts around 20 mph. Highs in turn are raised a few
degrees into the lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Models continue to generate qpf over western portions of the
forecast area overnight Tuesday night and into the early morning
on Wednesday. Shortwave moves across Nebraska and trailing energy
may be just enough coupled with weak overnight isentropic lift to
generate some isolated activity, although shear is weak and
elevated CAPE is enough for thunder but not much else. Dry air in
the low levels could bring an isolated wind threat but chances are
low.

Elongated ridge builds overhead into the Great Lakes states into
the weekend, which keeps highs in the lower 90s with lows around
70 for much of the forecast. More uncertainty for Sunday into
Monday as latest EC is stronger and slower with the incoming
shortwave over the Pacific NW and keeps the warm air overhead
longer, while GFS is more progressive with some of the energy
across the Canadian border and brings a front through faster on
Monday. Most of the GFS ensembles still point to this solution
and will keep chance for precip for Sunday into Monday. Heat could
hold out into Sunday but with this track Monday could end up
cooler with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Lower boundary
layer will remain mixed through sunrise so not expecting any
mist to form. Surface winds should average around 8kts through 14Z
with a gradual increase above the surface so not including any
LLWS at this time as low level jet will be stronger west of the
terminals. Winds increase to around 12kts by 16Z with gusts to
22kts, then decrease to around 8 kts after 00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KICT 010446
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 010446
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. AN ELONGATED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH COINCIDENT LEE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. A MORE
MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY LESS RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRANSIENT MVFR
BR AT CNU...AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE CNU TAF ATTM. CONVECTION
NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT PROPAGATES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE COMING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING CENTRAL KS (RSL TERMINAL) LATE...MOST
LIKELY AFTER 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
604 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORMS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL
REACH KGLD BECAUSE THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ON A DRASTIC WEAKENING
TREND AS THEY APPROACH. WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD THIS
EVENING AS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WERE INCLUDED AT BOTH TAF
SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AN INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AT KGLD
LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
MOST LIKELY AT KMCK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SOUTH WINDS
RETURN AROUND NOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH/JBH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
604 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORMS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL
REACH KGLD BECAUSE THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ON A DRASTIC WEAKENING
TREND AS THEY APPROACH. WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD THIS
EVENING AS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WERE INCLUDED AT BOTH TAF
SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AN INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AT KGLD
LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
MOST LIKELY AT KMCK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SOUTH WINDS
RETURN AROUND NOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH/JBH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
604 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. NOT CONFIDENT THAT STORMS CURRENTLY OVER COLORADO WILL
REACH KGLD BECAUSE THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ON A DRASTIC WEAKENING
TREND AS THEY APPROACH. WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD THIS
EVENING AS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASES AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
TOMORROW MORNING. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WERE INCLUDED AT BOTH TAF
SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AN INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AT KGLD
LATE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
MOST LIKELY AT KMCK EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SOUTH WINDS
RETURN AROUND NOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH/JBH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 312332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Water vapor imagery centers an expansive mid level ridge across
the southern and central plains, in between the broad
southwesterly flow to the northwest, and the tropical moisture
remnants to the southeast. At the surface this evening, weak upper
trough passes northeast over Nebraska. Not expecting any precip to
occur over the CWA, however sfc winds may stay up for a few hours
around 10 mph.

For tomorrow, expect similar conditions with perhaps a more
deeply mixed boundary layer as the trough axis over eastern CO
deepens east into central KS. South winds at 10 to 15 mph are
likely with gusts around 20 mph. Highs in turn are raised a few
degrees into the lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Models continue to generate qpf over western portions of the
forecast area overnight Tuesday night and into the early morning
on Wednesday. Shortwave moves across Nebraska and trailing energy
may be just enough coupled with weak overnight isentropic lift to
generate some isolated activity, although shear is weak and
elevated CAPE is enough for thunder but not much else. Dry air in
the low levels could bring an isolated wind threat but chances are
low.

Elongated ridge builds overhead into the Great Lakes states into
the weekend, which keeps highs in the lower 90s with lows around
70 for much of the forecast. More uncertainty for Sunday into
Monday as latest EC is stronger and slower with the incoming
shortwave over the Pacific NW and keeps the warm air overhead
longer, while GFS is more progressive with some of the energy
across the Canadian border and brings a front through faster on
Monday. Most of the GFS ensembles still point to this solution
and will keep chance for precip for Sunday into Monday. Heat could
hold out into Sunday but with this track Monday could end up
cooler with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Thinking is winds remain strong enough to inhibit both lower
visibility from formation of mist, due to the moist boundary
layer still in place, and also LLWS. LLWS is too low confidence
to insert in the forecast at this time due to the expectation that
winds don`t fully decouple. Will re-evaluate LLWS potential at the
06z TAF forecast time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake




000
FXUS63 KICT 312311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PREVALENT FOG WHICH IN SOME CASES HAS BEEN
DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THE PAST FEW COUPLE DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND LESS OF A RESTRICTION TO THE
VISIBILITY. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL
OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 312311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PREVALENT FOG WHICH IN SOME CASES HAS BEEN
DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THE PAST FEW COUPLE DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND LESS OF A RESTRICTION TO THE
VISIBILITY. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL
OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 312311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PREVALENT FOG WHICH IN SOME CASES HAS BEEN
DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THE PAST FEW COUPLE DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND LESS OF A RESTRICTION TO THE
VISIBILITY. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL
OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 312311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST VALID PERIOD. A DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. THE PREVALENT FOG WHICH IN SOME CASES HAS BEEN
DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE THE PAST FEW COUPLE DAYS
IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND LESS OF A RESTRICTION TO THE
VISIBILITY. WHILE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL
OMIT FROM THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  20  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 312305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A surface trough of low pressure will move slowly into western
Kansas tonight with light south to southeast winds. South winds
increase with mixing by mid morning. Only high level cirrus
cloudiness is expected to increase late with VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KDDC 312305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A surface trough of low pressure will move slowly into western
Kansas tonight with light south to southeast winds. South winds
increase with mixing by mid morning. Only high level cirrus
cloudiness is expected to increase late with VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KGLD 312127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK WEST. EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL EITHER REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...KMCK...OR TURN TO THE WEST...KGLD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS MOVED NEAR
KGLD BY MID EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
BE NEAR THE SITE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 312127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK WEST. EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL EITHER REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...KMCK...OR TURN TO THE WEST...KGLD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS MOVED NEAR
KGLD BY MID EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
BE NEAR THE SITE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 312127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS WITH A BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST HEIGHTS. OVERALL
THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/GFS THEN
ECMWF/NAM. THE NAM/GFS WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
SREF/CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. NAM WAS DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/WIND FIELD... ESPECIALLY ON LOCATIONS OF
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON THE JET POSITION. MAJORITY OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
ECMWF IS BY ITSELF AND FURTHER WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AFFECTING
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TRICKY/UNORGANIZED SCENARIO IN PLACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BUT THE MAIN LEVEL LIFT IS OVER THE EASTERN HALF WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE JUST BEHIND IT WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SO WILL HAVE TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING...
FIRST ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN ENDS WITH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKING
TO BE IN THE WEST WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE AFFECTING
EASTERN...SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS WITH THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AFFECTING THE SOUTH. SO LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT AREA.

SURFACE PUSHES INTO THE FAR WEST DURING THE NIGHT AND SHOULD CAUSE
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF. WARMEST MINS WILL BE IN THE
EAST WHERE THE WINDS AND BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS NORTH. ABOVE MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE THERE TO THINK SOME
LINGERING MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY REORGANIZES/PULLS BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AGAIN WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITHOUT A CAP...FELT IT WAS REASONABLE IN
PUTTING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA.

RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD A
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE MAV/GFS HAVE TENDED TO DO
BETTER FURTHER EAST WITH THE COOLER MODELS DOING BETTER IN THE WEST.
LATEST 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUPPORT THIS AND
ADJUSTED MAXES ACCORDINGLY. AGAIN TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DURING THE
NIGHT WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...DRIER AIR AND LOWEST TEMPERATURES
BEING IN THE WESTERN PORTION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO
STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST.

THURSDAY...MAIN JET STAYS WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. SAME WIND FIELD
AS DAY BEFORE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN IS NEAR OR OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AS A MODERATELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR OR OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. SO AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST BUT COULD SEE THE CHANCE BEING
HIGHER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THIS PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A
RATHER DEEP AND COLD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A DEEP COLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA
GETTING PUSHED EAST. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. AGREE WITH THE
NCEP ASSESSMENT THAT FLOW WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING
GIVEN THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SAME TIME...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SO WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
ROTATE THROUGH IS FLOW.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA COULD SEE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH REPEATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WITH IT LOOKING LIKE
THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE. THE CRH_INIT GENERAL SUPPORTS THIS BUT STILL MAY HAVE THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOO FAR EAST. CONSIDERING THIS AND GOING
THROUGH COLLABORATION...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND
CLEANED THEM UP A LITTLE.

TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK AND LOOKS LIKE THEY GET PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...LABOR DAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK WEST. EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL EITHER REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...KMCK...OR TURN TO THE WEST...KGLD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS MOVED NEAR
KGLD BY MID EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
BE NEAR THE SITE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 312005
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Water vapor imagery centers an expansive mid level ridge across
the southern and central plains, in between the broad
southwesterly flow to the northwest, and the tropical moisture
remnants to the southeast. At the surface this evening, weak upper
trough passes northeast over Nebraska. Not expecting any precip to
occur over the CWA, however sfc winds may stay up for a few hours
around 10 mph.

For tomorrow, expect similar conditions with perhaps a more
deeply mixed boundary layer as the trough axis over eastern CO
deepens east into central KS. South winds at 10 to 15 mph are
likely with gusts around 20 mph. Highs in turn are raised a few
degrees into the lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Models continue to generate qpf over western portions of the
forecast area overnight Tuesday night and into the early morning
on Wednesday. Shortwave moves across Nebraska and trailing energy
may be just enough coupled with weak overnight isentropic lift to
generate some isolated activity, although shear is weak and
elevated CAPE is enough for thunder but not much else. Dry air in
the low levels could bring an isolated wind threat but chances are
low.

Elongated ridge builds overhead into the Great Lakes states into
the weekend, which keeps highs in the lower 90s with lows around
70 for much of the forecast. More uncertainty for Sunday into
Monday as latest EC is stronger and slower with the incoming
shortwave over the Pacific NW and keeps the warm air overhead
longer, while GFS is more progressive with some of the energy
across the Canadian border and brings a front through faster on
Monday. Most of the GFS ensembles still point to this solution
and will keep chance for precip for Sunday into Monday. Heat could
hold out into Sunday but with this track Monday could end up
cooler with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with southerly winds around 10 kts
through 00Z. Profilers hint at southerly winds increasing up to 40
kts aoa 800 feet aft 06Z tonight, however there is some
uncertainty on wind speeds at the sfc during this time. Will hold
off mentioning llws at this time, but this may be reconsidered for
the next issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen



000
FXUS63 KTOP 312005
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Water vapor imagery centers an expansive mid level ridge across
the southern and central plains, in between the broad
southwesterly flow to the northwest, and the tropical moisture
remnants to the southeast. At the surface this evening, weak upper
trough passes northeast over Nebraska. Not expecting any precip to
occur over the CWA, however sfc winds may stay up for a few hours
around 10 mph.

For tomorrow, expect similar conditions with perhaps a more
deeply mixed boundary layer as the trough axis over eastern CO
deepens east into central KS. South winds at 10 to 15 mph are
likely with gusts around 20 mph. Highs in turn are raised a few
degrees into the lower and middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Models continue to generate qpf over western portions of the
forecast area overnight Tuesday night and into the early morning
on Wednesday. Shortwave moves across Nebraska and trailing energy
may be just enough coupled with weak overnight isentropic lift to
generate some isolated activity, although shear is weak and
elevated CAPE is enough for thunder but not much else. Dry air in
the low levels could bring an isolated wind threat but chances are
low.

Elongated ridge builds overhead into the Great Lakes states into
the weekend, which keeps highs in the lower 90s with lows around
70 for much of the forecast. More uncertainty for Sunday into
Monday as latest EC is stronger and slower with the incoming
shortwave over the Pacific NW and keeps the warm air overhead
longer, while GFS is more progressive with some of the energy
across the Canadian border and brings a front through faster on
Monday. Most of the GFS ensembles still point to this solution
and will keep chance for precip for Sunday into Monday. Heat could
hold out into Sunday but with this track Monday could end up
cooler with highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with southerly winds around 10 kts
through 00Z. Profilers hint at southerly winds increasing up to 40
kts aoa 800 feet aft 06Z tonight, however there is some
uncertainty on wind speeds at the sfc during this time. Will hold
off mentioning llws at this time, but this may be reconsidered for
the next issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen




000
FXUS63 KICT 311959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 311959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 311959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
259 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS THE FOG
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE GRADIENT WIND HAS NOT REALLY INCREASED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...WITH ABOUT 5 KNOTS OF WIND SHOWN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
THERE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DECOUPLING TO TAKE PLACE THERE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SURFACE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT.

THE MINIMUM DEWPOINT FOR THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS ABOUT 70 DEGREES
IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S...FOG SHOULD DEVELOP.

THE NAM/RAP RUNS TODAY HAVE AGREED WITH THIS THOUGHT WITH BUFKIT
SHOWING FOG DEVELOPING.  THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IS LOWERING CONFIDENCE
IS THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER WIND THAT IS EXPECTED. IF WINDS
ARE TOO STRONG IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IT WOULD FORM MORE OF A
STRATUS LAYER RATHER THAN FOG.

AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST SOME PATCHY FOG AND WAIT UNTIL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES BEFORE ADDING MORE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS TWO THINGS...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES. VERY CONFIDENT IN
TEMPERATURES BEING 4 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY.

KRC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AT WHICH TIME...THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EJECTS OUT OF THE
WEST AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES /THROUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL/ AND BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION
THIS COMING WEEKEND.  SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS DO NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  71  94 /  10   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      70  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          69  92  70  93 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  69  92 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  70  94 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  95  72  96 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  71  96 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          68  94  72  95 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  95 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  90  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    69  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311926
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311926
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311926
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311926
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

The upper level ridge across the Southern Rockies and Central
Plains will slowly shift eastward Tuesday through Thursday as a
strong upper level low digs into the Pacific Northwest. This low
then travels eastward across the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains this weekend into the beginning of next week. As for the
forecast, the atmosphere over western Kansas looks nearly
saturated with increasing cloudiness as the evening progresses. A
few thunderstorms may be possible across west central and central
Kansas around midnight as another weak shortwave passes through
the area. This activity should end by sunrise Wednesday. Drier air
then moves into the area Wednesday into Thursday bringing partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions. Winds will generally be from a
southerly direction through at least Thursday as lee troughing
continues across eastern Colorado. Thunderstorm chances then
slowly increase Friday into this weekend as the aforementioned
upper level low moves across the northern United States. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday into Monday as models
suggest a cold front moving through the area. Otherwise expect
partly cloudy skies. As for temperatures, highs in the upper 90s
are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday then in the lower 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Lows look to range from the lower 60s
across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across central and
south central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  10
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311922
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK WEST. EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL EITHER REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...KMCK...OR TURN TO THE WEST...KGLD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS MOVED NEAR
KGLD BY MID EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
BE NEAR THE SITE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 311922
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK WEST. EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL EITHER REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...KMCK...OR TURN TO THE WEST...KGLD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS MOVED NEAR
KGLD BY MID EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
BE NEAR THE SITE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311922
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
122 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW AN AXIS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS BETWEEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.  THIS AXIS HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY INTO
THE TRI-STATE AREA.  AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING BACK WEST.  EAST OF IT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY WHILE WEST OF IT NORTH WINDS
HAVE BEEN BREEZY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE AXIS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES WEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE AREA.  MEANWHILE EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LIFT
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE STRENGTHENS.

TONIGHT STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD HELP STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH INCREASES.  OVERNIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST CAUSING STORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH.

AM CONFIDENT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL SEE STORM
ACTIVITY...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDE SPREAD WILL THE ACTIVITY
BE.  THE LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS VERY
STRONG...AND LOOKING AT VARIOUS THETA LEVELS...FAIRLY DEEP.  HOWEVER
THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CENTRAL PART WILL
LIKELY SERVE TO HINDER STORM ACTIVITY DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT...SO
HAVE LOWER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THAN WOULD LIKE CONSIDERING THE
STRONG LIFT OVER THE WEST.  DOES LOOK LIKE MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE EITHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT YUMA
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT RECEIVING MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE AREA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA...DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK WEST. EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL EITHER REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...KMCK...OR TURN TO THE WEST...KGLD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS MOVED NEAR
KGLD BY MID EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
BE NEAR THE SITE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  95 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  20
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  95 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  20
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  95 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  20
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  95 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  20
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  95 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  20
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311816
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

An upper level ridge of high pressure sits above the Southern
Rockies and Central Plains with a weak trough extending from Texas
to Ohio. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is positioned
over the western United States. A weak shortwave at the bottom of
this long wave trough will move through the Central Rockies this
evening, westward into the Central High Plains overnight. The mid
levels of the atmosphere above western Kansas have slight
increased in moisture compared to yesterday which could lead to a
few clouds to form this evening into the overnight hours as the
aforementioned shortwave moves through. Towards the surface, a
large dome of high pressure is located across the Eastern United
States with a trough of low pressure present along Eastern
Colorado northward into western Nebraska. A few thunderstorms are
anticipated to form along this boundary this afternoon then slowly
trek eastward. A few may make it into west central Kansas towards
midnight, however, there is a good chance these storms will
dissipate before reaching our CWA. Dry conditions are expected
through the remainder of the night into tomorrow with continued
southerly winds. Lows overnight are progged to range from the
lower 60s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow are expected to reach into
the lower to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  94  70  95 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  64  94  68  96 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  66  93  67  95 /  10  10  20  10
LBL  67  95  69  96 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  66  95  71  96 /  10  10  20  20
P28  70  95  72  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311738
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NORTON AND HILL CITY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THOSE STATES
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOG.

BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING FOG...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION BRING PERIODIC
INCREASES IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FEEL ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD
OF INITIATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER PRIMARILY THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK WEST. EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL EITHER REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...KMCK...OR TURN TO THE WEST...KGLD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS MOVED NEAR
KGLD BY MID EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
BE NEAR THE SITE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 311738
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NORTON AND HILL CITY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THOSE STATES
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOG.

BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING FOG...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION BRING PERIODIC
INCREASES IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FEEL ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD
OF INITIATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER PRIMARILY THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES BACK WEST. EAST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL EITHER REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...KMCK...OR TURN TO THE WEST...KGLD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS MOVED NEAR
KGLD BY MID EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
BE NEAR THE SITE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KICT 311724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 311724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 311724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  DO NOT THINK
THAT THE FOG/BR THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR THE LAST FEW NIGHT WILL BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON TUE...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TONIGHT...AND KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.  DO THINK SOME MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  THINK DRY LOW
LAYERS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHRA/SPRINKLES FROM DEVELOPING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  67  94  70 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  96  64  94  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  96  66  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  97  66  95  71 /  10  10  10  20
P28  96  70  95  72 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  67  94  70 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  96  64  94  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  96  66  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  97  66  95  71 /  10  10  10  20
P28  96  70  95  72 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  67  94  70 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  96  64  94  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  96  66  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  97  66  95  71 /  10  10  10  20
P28  96  70  95  72 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds
will generally be from the south around 15 knots gusting to over
20 knots at times. Southerly wind speeds then decrease to 8-10
knots this evening into the overnight period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  67  94  70 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  96  64  94  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  96  66  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  97  66  95  71 /  10  10  10  20
P28  96  70  95  72 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



000
FXUS63 KTOP 311714
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with southerly winds around 10 kts
through 00Z. Profilers hint at southerly winds increasing up to 40
kts aoa 800 feet aft 06Z tonight, however there is some
uncertainty on wind speeds at the sfc during this time. Will hold
off mentioning llws at this time, but this may be reconsidered for
the next issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen



000
FXUS63 KTOP 311714
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with southerly winds around 10 kts
through 00Z. Profilers hint at southerly winds increasing up to 40
kts aoa 800 feet aft 06Z tonight, however there is some
uncertainty on wind speeds at the sfc during this time. Will hold
off mentioning llws at this time, but this may be reconsidered for
the next issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen




000
FXUS63 KDDC 311202
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Dense radiation fog rapidly expanded across central Kansas and will
likely continue to be a problem on and off at hys until sunrise.
beyond that, the boundary layer will mix just enough for weak
southerly gusts this afternoon in VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  67  94  70 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  95  64  93  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  95  66  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  95  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  20
P28  96  70  96  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311202
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Dense radiation fog rapidly expanded across central Kansas and will
likely continue to be a problem on and off at hys until sunrise.
beyond that, the boundary layer will mix just enough for weak
southerly gusts this afternoon in VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  67  94  70 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  95  64  93  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  95  66  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  95  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  20
P28  96  70  96  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KDDC 311202
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Dense radiation fog rapidly expanded across central Kansas and will
likely continue to be a problem on and off at hys until sunrise.
beyond that, the boundary layer will mix just enough for weak
southerly gusts this afternoon in VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  67  94  70 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  95  64  93  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  95  66  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  95  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  20
P28  96  70  96  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ065-066-
079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 311149
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MOST SITES AT THE ONSET...BUT AFTER
ABOUT 1500 UTC VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KHUT/KSLN WITH KRSL/KICT ON THE
FRINGE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ047>053-
067>070-082-083-091.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311147
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NORTON AND HILL CITY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITHSOME AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THOSE STATES
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOG.

BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING FOG...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION BRING PERIODIC
INCREASES IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FEEL ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD
OF INITIATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER PRIMARILY THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT GLD BETWEEN 02Z-04Z AS STORMS MOVE
OFF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 311147
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NORTON AND HILL CITY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITHSOME AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THOSE STATES
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOG.

BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING FOG...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION BRING PERIODIC
INCREASES IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FEEL ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD
OF INITIATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER PRIMARILY THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT GLD BETWEEN 02Z-04Z AS STORMS MOVE
OFF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 311147
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NORTON AND HILL CITY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITHSOME AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THOSE STATES
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOG.

BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING FOG...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION BRING PERIODIC
INCREASES IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FEEL ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD
OF INITIATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER PRIMARILY THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT GLD BETWEEN 02Z-04Z AS STORMS MOVE
OFF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 311147
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
547 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NORTON AND HILL CITY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WITHSOME AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THOSE STATES
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOG.

BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING FOG...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION BRING PERIODIC
INCREASES IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FEEL ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD
OF INITIATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER PRIMARILY THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT GLD BETWEEN 02Z-04Z AS STORMS MOVE
OFF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KTOP 311140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Lower levels again saturated this morning but not nearly as deep
or persistent as Sunday and winds are stronger. Expect a quicker
recover to VFR conditions as a result. Could see a brief MVFR
broken deck develop before 17Z. Even drier and windier conditions
this time Tuesday, and could even see LLWS, though at this point
changes in speed in direction look steady.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 311140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Lower levels again saturated this morning but not nearly as deep
or persistent as Sunday and winds are stronger. Expect a quicker
recover to VFR conditions as a result. Could see a brief MVFR
broken deck develop before 17Z. Even drier and windier conditions
this time Tuesday, and could even see LLWS, though at this point
changes in speed in direction look steady.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 311140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Lower levels again saturated this morning but not nearly as deep
or persistent as Sunday and winds are stronger. Expect a quicker
recover to VFR conditions as a result. Could see a brief MVFR
broken deck develop before 17Z. Even drier and windier conditions
this time Tuesday, and could even see LLWS, though at this point
changes in speed in direction look steady.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65



000
FXUS63 KTOP 311140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Lower levels again saturated this morning but not nearly as deep
or persistent as Sunday and winds are stronger. Expect a quicker
recover to VFR conditions as a result. Could see a brief MVFR
broken deck develop before 17Z. Even drier and windier conditions
this time Tuesday, and could even see LLWS, though at this point
changes in speed in direction look steady.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310956
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
356 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NORTON AND HILL CITY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING.
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSASWITH
SOME AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THOSE STATES BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP FOG.

BEYOND THE EARLY MORNING FOG...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A LOW CENTER MOVES
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AS THE
IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION BRING PERIODIC
INCREASES IN MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FEEL ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION ARE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INSTEAD
OF INITIATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED AND POSSIBLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER PRIMARILY THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH NO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 90S WHILE LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310818
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310818
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310818
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310818
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310815
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
315 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated term of short and term of long...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Forecast issue is br/fg again for the morning. Models trending farther
east with the most reduced visibilities. IFR conditions for KDDC, and
MVFR for KHYS. KGCK should be VFR. Improvement back to VFR around 14Z-
15Z. Will watch and amend if lower flight conditions develop.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  67  94  70 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  94  64  93  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  95  66  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  95  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  20
P28  95  70  96  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KDDC 310815
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
315 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Updated term of short and term of long...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Morning concern is fog again. Currently, the lowest temp/dew depressions
are located across Stafford to Barber counties. From this and models,
this is where the more dense fog is possible. Watching trends of a dense
fog advisory, but currently do not have any headlines out. To the west
towards Dodge City, there would be patchy fog as well. Otherwise, highs
should warm to the mid 90s. There is still the question if smoke will
have deleterious impacts from temperatures reaching their maximum potential.
This has been the case over the last few days and was considered. The
ARW develops convection across eastern Colorado this evening and moves
said activity closer the Kansas border. Have slight pops in this region.
Other models are dry. With the mid level height axis along the forecast
area, not sure if there will even be much in the way of propagation
of Colorado thunderstorm activity into the Sunflower state. The slight
pops covers the situation for now.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Hot temperatures occupy the spatiotemporal domain of the extended period.
Southwest Kansas will be firmly in the warm sector with weak mid level
ridging and low level troughing. Highs will continue in the 90s. Mild
lows of 60s and 70s are expected as well. There is a slight chance
of storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weak wave moves
through. Uncertainty in mesoscale to synoptic scale details is high
at this point and slight pops are appropriate for now. There might be
a better chance of storms next weekend as a western conus trough amplifies
with a few mid level pressure perturbations rounding the base of the
synoptic trof. The superblend pops looks good for now as a first order
approximation. Did take out any likely precipitation probability values
as this seems a bit dubious and eager.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Forecast issue is br/fg again for the morning. Models trending farther
east with the most reduced visibilities. IFR conditions for KDDC, and
MVFR for KHYS. KGCK should be VFR. Improvement back to VFR around 14Z-
15Z. Will watch and amend if lower flight conditions develop.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  94  67  94  70 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  94  64  93  68 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  95  66  93  67 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  96  67  95  69 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  95  66  95  71 /   0  10  10  20
P28  95  70  96  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KICT 310753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 310753
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY
DENSE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HOWEVER NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH THIS MORNINGS SETUP BEING LESS
FAVORABLE COMPARED TO SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WARM ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS
OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE MID-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER OUT WITH SOME ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...THIS COULD SPARK OFF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
MAINTAINING UNTIL PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT OR NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  70  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      93  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          91  69  92  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        90  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         94  67  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      94  68  95  73 /   0  10  10  20
SALINA          93  68  94  73 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       93  69  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  91  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310547
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310547
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 310547
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper disturbance in
southwesterly upper level flow could bring a few thunderstorms to
far western Kansas Monday night. Some high level cloudiness also
increases from west to east. South winds increase to 20 to 30 mph in
the afternoon, as a lee trough deepens. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs will be in the mid 90s.

For the period of Wednesday into next weekend, weak upper level flow
persists across the Central and Southern Plains while an upper level
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. As this trough moves slowly
into the Intermountain West by next Sunday, a cold front will push
across the Central Plains with the best chances for rainfall.
Otherwise expect little if any rainfall before Sunday. Highs will
be above normal, generally in the mid 90s, with lows in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Forecast issue is br/fg again for the morning. Models trending farther
east with the most reduced visibilities. IFR conditions for KDDC, and
MVFR for KHYS. KGCK should be VFR. Improvement back to VFR around 14Z-
15Z. Will watch and amend if lower flight conditions develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  64  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  94 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  62  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  65  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper disturbance in
southwesterly upper level flow could bring a few thunderstorms to
far western Kansas Monday night. Some high level cloudiness also
increases from west to east. South winds increase to 20 to 30 mph in
the afternoon, as a lee trough deepens. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs will be in the mid 90s.

For the period of Wednesday into next weekend, weak upper level flow
persists across the Central and Southern Plains while an upper level
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. As this trough moves slowly
into the Intermountain West by next Sunday, a cold front will push
across the Central Plains with the best chances for rainfall.
Otherwise expect little if any rainfall before Sunday. Highs will
be above normal, generally in the mid 90s, with lows in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Forecast issue is br/fg again for the morning. Models trending farther
east with the most reduced visibilities. IFR conditions for KDDC, and
MVFR for KHYS. KGCK should be VFR. Improvement back to VFR around 14Z-
15Z. Will watch and amend if lower flight conditions develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  64  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  94 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  62  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  65  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper disturbance in
southwesterly upper level flow could bring a few thunderstorms to
far western Kansas Monday night. Some high level cloudiness also
increases from west to east. South winds increase to 20 to 30 mph in
the afternoon, as a lee trough deepens. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs will be in the mid 90s.

For the period of Wednesday into next weekend, weak upper level flow
persists across the Central and Southern Plains while an upper level
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. As this trough moves slowly
into the Intermountain West by next Sunday, a cold front will push
across the Central Plains with the best chances for rainfall.
Otherwise expect little if any rainfall before Sunday. Highs will
be above normal, generally in the mid 90s, with lows in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Forecast issue is br/fg again for the morning. Models trending farther
east with the most reduced visibilities. IFR conditions for KDDC, and
MVFR for KHYS. KGCK should be VFR. Improvement back to VFR around 14Z-
15Z. Will watch and amend if lower flight conditions develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  64  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  94 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  62  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  65  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper disturbance in
southwesterly upper level flow could bring a few thunderstorms to
far western Kansas Monday night. Some high level cloudiness also
increases from west to east. South winds increase to 20 to 30 mph in
the afternoon, as a lee trough deepens. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs will be in the mid 90s.

For the period of Wednesday into next weekend, weak upper level flow
persists across the Central and Southern Plains while an upper level
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. As this trough moves slowly
into the Intermountain West by next Sunday, a cold front will push
across the Central Plains with the best chances for rainfall.
Otherwise expect little if any rainfall before Sunday. Highs will
be above normal, generally in the mid 90s, with lows in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Forecast issue is br/fg again for the morning. Models trending farther
east with the most reduced visibilities. IFR conditions for KDDC, and
MVFR for KHYS. KGCK should be VFR. Improvement back to VFR around 14Z-
15Z. Will watch and amend if lower flight conditions develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  64  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  94 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  62  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  65  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310444
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310444
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310444
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310444
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310444
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310444
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1144 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Periods of MVFR vsbys with occasional ifr vsbys are expected
through 14Z then improving to VFR. TOP likely to see lower vsbys
with MIFG through sunrise. Winds will gradually increase from the
south around 10 kts by 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...53



000
FXUS63 KICT 310440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE IS ROTATING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK WITH ANOTHER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN TX. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EAST/NORTHEAST OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT
HIGH...WILL RUN WITH AREA DESCRIPTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL INCREASE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW/BETTER MIXING. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 90S MON-WED WITH
UPPER 90S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS. SO WILL RUN WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND SOME MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO IMPACT AT LEAST CENTRAL
KS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  98  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          63  94  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 310440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE IS ROTATING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK WITH ANOTHER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN TX. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EAST/NORTHEAST OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT
HIGH...WILL RUN WITH AREA DESCRIPTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL INCREASE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW/BETTER MIXING. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 90S MON-WED WITH
UPPER 90S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS. SO WILL RUN WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND SOME MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO IMPACT AT LEAST CENTRAL
KS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  98  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          63  94  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 310440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE IS ROTATING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK WITH ANOTHER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN TX. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EAST/NORTHEAST OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT
HIGH...WILL RUN WITH AREA DESCRIPTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL INCREASE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW/BETTER MIXING. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 90S MON-WED WITH
UPPER 90S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS. SO WILL RUN WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND SOME MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO IMPACT AT LEAST CENTRAL
KS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  98  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          63  94  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 310440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE IS ROTATING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK WITH ANOTHER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN TX. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EAST/NORTHEAST OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT
HIGH...WILL RUN WITH AREA DESCRIPTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL INCREASE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW/BETTER MIXING. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 90S MON-WED WITH
UPPER 90S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS. SO WILL RUN WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND SOME MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO IMPACT AT LEAST CENTRAL
KS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
TOWARD DAWN. CONFIDENCE ON MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THOUGH BETTER CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OR
NORTHEAST OF THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  98  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          63  94  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310012
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The main focus for the next 24 hour period for aviation will be
the formation of early morning fog and the extent/duration of fog
that does form. With no appreciable air mass change and more
clearing earlier tonight, confidence is good that the peak times
for fog will be from 9z to 15z. Right now, have opted to go only
VFR, but there could be times where lower VIS/GIG categories
persist. The factor that may help to mitigate how widespread fog
is tonight will be the wind and whether or not it calms completely
down. Conditions should improve quickly after 15z though and winds
will pick up generally from the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Drake



000
FXUS63 KTOP 310012
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The main focus for the next 24 hour period for aviation will be
the formation of early morning fog and the extent/duration of fog
that does form. With no appreciable air mass change and more
clearing earlier tonight, confidence is good that the peak times
for fog will be from 9z to 15z. Right now, have opted to go only
VFR, but there could be times where lower VIS/GIG categories
persist. The factor that may help to mitigate how widespread fog
is tonight will be the wind and whether or not it calms completely
down. Conditions should improve quickly after 15z though and winds
will pick up generally from the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Drake



000
FXUS63 KTOP 310012
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The main focus for the next 24 hour period for aviation will be
the formation of early morning fog and the extent/duration of fog
that does form. With no appreciable air mass change and more
clearing earlier tonight, confidence is good that the peak times
for fog will be from 9z to 15z. Right now, have opted to go only
VFR, but there could be times where lower VIS/GIG categories
persist. The factor that may help to mitigate how widespread fog
is tonight will be the wind and whether or not it calms completely
down. Conditions should improve quickly after 15z though and winds
will pick up generally from the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Drake



000
FXUS63 KTOP 310012
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The main focus for the next 24 hour period for aviation will be
the formation of early morning fog and the extent/duration of fog
that does form. With no appreciable air mass change and more
clearing earlier tonight, confidence is good that the peak times
for fog will be from 9z to 15z. Right now, have opted to go only
VFR, but there could be times where lower VIS/GIG categories
persist. The factor that may help to mitigate how widespread fog
is tonight will be the wind and whether or not it calms completely
down. Conditions should improve quickly after 15z though and winds
will pick up generally from the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Drake



000
FXUS63 KTOP 310012
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The main focus for the next 24 hour period for aviation will be
the formation of early morning fog and the extent/duration of fog
that does form. With no appreciable air mass change and more
clearing earlier tonight, confidence is good that the peak times
for fog will be from 9z to 15z. Right now, have opted to go only
VFR, but there could be times where lower VIS/GIG categories
persist. The factor that may help to mitigate how widespread fog
is tonight will be the wind and whether or not it calms completely
down. Conditions should improve quickly after 15z though and winds
will pick up generally from the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Drake




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310012
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The main focus for the next 24 hour period for aviation will be
the formation of early morning fog and the extent/duration of fog
that does form. With no appreciable air mass change and more
clearing earlier tonight, confidence is good that the peak times
for fog will be from 9z to 15z. Right now, have opted to go only
VFR, but there could be times where lower VIS/GIG categories
persist. The factor that may help to mitigate how widespread fog
is tonight will be the wind and whether or not it calms completely
down. Conditions should improve quickly after 15z though and winds
will pick up generally from the southeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Drake




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE SHOULD PERSIST FOR NEXT 2-4 HOURS
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. EXPECTING SMOKE TO CLEAR AS AN
INVERSION FORMS...ENDING MIXING INTO SMOKY AIR ALOFT. SMOKE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACKS WINDS
SOUTHWEST...AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SMOKE TO REACH THE HIGH
PLAINS. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE SMOKE IN TAF FOR TOMORROW. A
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BUT SURFACE WINDS AT KGLD MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO MISS LLWS CRITERIA. TOMORROW MORNING...KGLD WIND
DIRECTION FORECAST PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW FAR
EAST A LEE TROUGH MOVES. STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO REACH SITES
BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH/JBH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 302348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE SHOULD PERSIST FOR NEXT 2-4 HOURS
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. EXPECTING SMOKE TO CLEAR AS AN
INVERSION FORMS...ENDING MIXING INTO SMOKY AIR ALOFT. SMOKE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACKS WINDS
SOUTHWEST...AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SMOKE TO REACH THE HIGH
PLAINS. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE SMOKE IN TAF FOR TOMORROW. A
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BUT SURFACE WINDS AT KGLD MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO MISS LLWS CRITERIA. TOMORROW MORNING...KGLD WIND
DIRECTION FORECAST PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW FAR
EAST A LEE TROUGH MOVES. STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO REACH SITES
BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH/JBH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE SHOULD PERSIST FOR NEXT 2-4 HOURS
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. EXPECTING SMOKE TO CLEAR AS AN
INVERSION FORMS...ENDING MIXING INTO SMOKY AIR ALOFT. SMOKE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACKS WINDS
SOUTHWEST...AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SMOKE TO REACH THE HIGH
PLAINS. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE SMOKE IN TAF FOR TOMORROW. A
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BUT SURFACE WINDS AT KGLD MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO MISS LLWS CRITERIA. TOMORROW MORNING...KGLD WIND
DIRECTION FORECAST PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW FAR
EAST A LEE TROUGH MOVES. STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO REACH SITES
BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH/JBH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 302348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE SHOULD PERSIST FOR NEXT 2-4 HOURS
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. EXPECTING SMOKE TO CLEAR AS AN
INVERSION FORMS...ENDING MIXING INTO SMOKY AIR ALOFT. SMOKE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACKS WINDS
SOUTHWEST...AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SMOKE TO REACH THE HIGH
PLAINS. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE SMOKE IN TAF FOR TOMORROW. A
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BUT SURFACE WINDS AT KGLD MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO MISS LLWS CRITERIA. TOMORROW MORNING...KGLD WIND
DIRECTION FORECAST PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW FAR
EAST A LEE TROUGH MOVES. STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO REACH SITES
BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH/JBH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 302348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE SHOULD PERSIST FOR NEXT 2-4 HOURS
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. EXPECTING SMOKE TO CLEAR AS AN
INVERSION FORMS...ENDING MIXING INTO SMOKY AIR ALOFT. SMOKE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACKS WINDS
SOUTHWEST...AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SMOKE TO REACH THE HIGH
PLAINS. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE SMOKE IN TAF FOR TOMORROW. A
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BUT SURFACE WINDS AT KGLD MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO MISS LLWS CRITERIA. TOMORROW MORNING...KGLD WIND
DIRECTION FORECAST PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW FAR
EAST A LEE TROUGH MOVES. STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO REACH SITES
BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH/JBH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 302348
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE SHOULD PERSIST FOR NEXT 2-4 HOURS
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. EXPECTING SMOKE TO CLEAR AS AN
INVERSION FORMS...ENDING MIXING INTO SMOKY AIR ALOFT. SMOKE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACKS WINDS
SOUTHWEST...AN UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SMOKE TO REACH THE HIGH
PLAINS. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE SMOKE IN TAF FOR TOMORROW. A
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MAY BECOME A CONCERN BUT SURFACE WINDS AT KGLD MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO MISS LLWS CRITERIA. TOMORROW MORNING...KGLD WIND
DIRECTION FORECAST PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW FAR
EAST A LEE TROUGH MOVES. STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON OVER COLORADO BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO REACH SITES
BEFORE 00Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH/JBH



000
FXUS63 KICT 302332
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE IS ROTATING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK WITH ANOTHER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN TX. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EAST/NORTHEAST OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT
HIGH...WILL RUN WITH AREA DESCRIPTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL INCREASE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW/BETTER MIXING. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 90S MON-WED WITH
UPPER 90S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS. SO WILL RUN WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND SOME MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO IMPACT AT LEAST CENTRAL
KS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER ARKANSAS.
A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LATER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST
OF I-135 TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARD DAWN.
CONFIDENCE ON AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS IS HIGH WITH MODEST CONFIDENCE
FOR IFR. PATCHY LIFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IS NOT AS HIGH. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING
MONDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  94  70  95 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  98  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          63  94  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  93  69  94 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302044
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFF CIGS should gradually become MVFR and at some point this
afternoon weak mixing and August sun should allow for skies to
scatter out as the weak sfc-850mb ridge breaks down and weak
southeast flow becomes established. At this point it appears that
CIGS should be VFR after 00z with sct cumulus which with another
night of radiational cooling/weak winds should give rise to a
period of MVFR VIS conds for a time Monday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Omitt




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302044
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak ridge will shift east with light southeast sfc-850mb flow set
to develop through Monday.  Despite a few hours of sunshine late
today expect patchy fog to be possible later tonight given light
flow and boundary layer moisture profile so have included in the
forecast. We should finally see organized albeit weak south
southwest flow to develop Monday which should help to provide more
sunshine and push highs into the upper 80s to around 90 which should
sum of most of the upcoming week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Upper ridge axis shifts southward towards Texas while northeast
Kansas holds on the northern periphery of the ridge while areas to
the north and west are under the influence of the active weak
shortwave troughs. One particular wave skirts southern NE into IA
late Tues evening with enough isentropic lift for a few showers and
storms to reach north central KS. Guidance is fairly similar in this
occurring, holding the highest accumulating precip in south central
NE. Otherwise, main focus was the quickly warming temps as sunshine
becomes dominant and southerly mixing increases west to east at 10
to 15 mph sustained during the afternoon. As a result, highs in the
lower 90s east central to mid 90s central ks is expected while lows
only drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.

By the end of the week, the broad upper level ridge will shift East
over the Eastern Great Lakes region and the western fringe will be
flattened over the Central Plains of Nebraska and into Western KS
due to several impulses of lead shortwaves moving through the
pattern.  Any of these could cause just enough isentropic ascent to
saturate moisture and cause isolated areas of showers and elevated
thunderstorms.  As a result, have kept small chance POPs mainly
North of I-70 up through the KS/NE state line on Saturday.  The best
chances will remain off over Western KS initially as the leeside
trough becomes more active with associated flow over the Rockies.
Late day Saturday into Sunday, chances of elevated showers and
thunderstorms can be expected to increase again mainly North of I-70
into southeastern Nebraska as more upper level forcing enters the
region as a long wave trough lifts into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains Sunday afternoon. This will set the stage for
possibly higher rain and thunderstorm chances on Monday as a cold
front is forced into the outlook area as the upper trough
continues progression East into the Upper MS Valley. This is
outside of the forecast period for now, but something to keep in
mind nonetheless.

Temps generally cooler from the mid 90s on Thursday into the mid 80s
by Sunday due to more cloud cover likely.  Lows generally remain in
the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFF CIGS should gradually become MVFR and at some point this
afternoon weak mixing and August sun should allow for skies to
scatter out as the weak sfc-850mb ridge breaks down and weak
southeast flow becomes established. At this point it appears that
CIGS should be VFR after 00z with sct cumulus which with another
night of radiational cooling/weak winds should give rise to a
period of MVFR VIS conds for a time Monday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Bowen/Drake
AVIATION...Omitt



000
FXUS63 KGLD 302016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 302016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KICT 302002
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ONE IS ROTATING ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK WITH ANOTHER
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN TX. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGHING IS
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW. AT THE SURFACE...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MO DOWN INTO SW OK WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
EAST/NORTHEAST OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS NOT
HIGH...WILL RUN WITH AREA DESCRIPTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG.

THE MAIN STORY THROUGH WED WILL BE FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHICH WILL INCREASE LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW/BETTER MIXING. MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH 850MB TEMPS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT 90S MON-WED WITH
UPPER 90S A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135. SOME WEAK UPPER
ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON TUE WHICH WILL FLATTEN OUT
OF THE UPPER FLOW AND ALLOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POSSIBLY
AFFECT CENTRAL KS. SO WILL RUN WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THESE AREAS TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

PATTERN IS EXPECTED REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THESE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE NW CONUS WITH A BROAD AREA
OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND SOME MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL START TO IMPACT AT LEAST CENTRAL
KS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
PATCHY MVFR VSBY/CIGS MAY RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST PBL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      64  94  70  95 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          65  93  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        66  92  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  94  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         61  98  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  97  68  96 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          63  94  68  95 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       64  93  69  94 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  91  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301944
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper disturbance in
southwesterly upper level flow could bring a few thunderstorms to
far western Kansas Monday night. Some high level cloudiness also
increases from west to east. South winds increase to 20 to 30 mph in
the afternoon, as a lee trough deepens. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs will be in the mid 90s.

For the period of Wednesday into next weekend, weak upper level flow
persists across the Central and Southern Plains while an upper level
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. As this trough moves slowly
into the Intermountain West by next Sunday, a cold front will push
across the Central Plains with the best chances for rainfall.
Otherwise expect little if any rainfall before Sunday. Highs will
be above normal, generally in the mid 90s, with lows in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Light upslope winds and clear skies could give way to areas of
light ground fog after 09Z to around 14Z, otherwise expect VFR
conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  66  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  93 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  64  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  66  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301944
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper disturbance in
southwesterly upper level flow could bring a few thunderstorms to
far western Kansas Monday night. Some high level cloudiness also
increases from west to east. South winds increase to 20 to 30 mph in
the afternoon, as a lee trough deepens. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs will be in the mid 90s.

For the period of Wednesday into next weekend, weak upper level flow
persists across the Central and Southern Plains while an upper level
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. As this trough moves slowly
into the Intermountain West by next Sunday, a cold front will push
across the Central Plains with the best chances for rainfall.
Otherwise expect little if any rainfall before Sunday. Highs will
be above normal, generally in the mid 90s, with lows in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Light upslope winds and clear skies could give way to areas of
light ground fog after 09Z to around 14Z, otherwise expect VFR
conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  66  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  93 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  64  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  66  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301944
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For Monday night into Tuesday, a weak upper disturbance in
southwesterly upper level flow could bring a few thunderstorms to
far western Kansas Monday night. Some high level cloudiness also
increases from west to east. South winds increase to 20 to 30 mph in
the afternoon, as a lee trough deepens. Lows will be in the mid to
upper 60s. Highs will be in the mid 90s.

For the period of Wednesday into next weekend, weak upper level flow
persists across the Central and Southern Plains while an upper level
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. As this trough moves slowly
into the Intermountain West by next Sunday, a cold front will push
across the Central Plains with the best chances for rainfall.
Otherwise expect little if any rainfall before Sunday. Highs will
be above normal, generally in the mid 90s, with lows in the upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Light upslope winds and clear skies could give way to areas of
light ground fog after 09Z to around 14Z, otherwise expect VFR
conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  66  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  93 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  64  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  66  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
216 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A low pressure surface trough will continue into the lee of the
Rockies tonight with light moist upslope winds of 5 to 10 mph. With
the light upslope and clear skies, there could be some patchy dense
fog or at least ground fog generally east of Garden City from
around 4 am till 9 am CDT. The only model to suggest this is the
SREF. Overnight lows with clear skies look to be in the low to mid
60s.

For Monday, a weak trough will push towards western Kansas with
light southeast winds becoming light south. Some cirrus high level
cloudiness may increase across far western Kansas late. Highs
will be in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Light upslope winds and clear skies could give way to areas of
light ground fog after 09Z to around 14Z, otherwise expect VFR
conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  62  96  66  94 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  64  96  65  93 /   0  10  20  10
LBL  64  97  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  62  96  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
P28  66  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301842 AAA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST FINISHED AN UPDATE FOR A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SMOKE THAT
WAS STILL TRAPPED ALOFT HAS BEEN MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SO INSERTED SMOKE
THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY AND ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXES. SO RAISED MAXES
IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301842 AAA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST FINISHED AN UPDATE FOR A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SMOKE THAT
WAS STILL TRAPPED ALOFT HAS BEEN MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SO INSERTED SMOKE
THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY AND ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXES. SO RAISED MAXES
IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301842 AAA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST FINISHED AN UPDATE FOR A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SMOKE THAT
WAS STILL TRAPPED ALOFT HAS BEEN MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SO INSERTED SMOKE
THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY AND ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXES. SO RAISED MAXES
IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301842 AAA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST FINISHED AN UPDATE FOR A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SMOKE THAT
WAS STILL TRAPPED ALOFT HAS BEEN MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SO INSERTED SMOKE
THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY AND ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXES. SO RAISED MAXES
IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATE TO THE ORIGINAL TAFS...DUE TO SMOKE BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...BOTH SITES ARE SEEING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. AT THIS
TIME KGLD IS MVFR AND KMCK IS VFR. SO WILL HAVE THIS RESTRICTION
UNTIL 02-03Z.

SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL DECREASE AND
STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT FOG AND
STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM 09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST FINISHED AN UPDATE FOR A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SMOKE THAT
WAS STILL TRAPPED ALOFT HAS BEEN MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SO INSERTED SMOKE
THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY AND ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXES. SO RAISED MAXES
IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
23 TO 27 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL
DECREASE AND STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT FOG AND STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM
09Z TO 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST FINISHED AN UPDATE FOR A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SMOKE THAT
WAS STILL TRAPPED ALOFT HAS BEEN MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SO INSERTED SMOKE
THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY AND ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXES. SO RAISED MAXES
IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
23 TO 27 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL
DECREASE AND STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT FOG AND STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM
09Z TO 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST FINISHED AN UPDATE FOR A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SMOKE THAT
WAS STILL TRAPPED ALOFT HAS BEEN MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SO INSERTED SMOKE
THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY AND ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXES. SO RAISED MAXES
IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
23 TO 27 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL
DECREASE AND STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT FOG AND STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM
09Z TO 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301744
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
23 TO 27 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL
DECREASE AND STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT FOG AND STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM
09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301744
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
23 TO 27 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL
DECREASE AND STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT FOG AND STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM
09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301744
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
23 TO 27 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL
DECREASE AND STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT FOG AND STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM
09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301744
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
23 TO 27 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL
DECREASE AND STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT FOG AND STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM
09Z TO 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Light upslope winds and clear skies could give way to areas of
light ground fog after 09Z to around 14Z, otherwise expect VFR
conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  63  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  93  62  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  64  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  93  63  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  92  61  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  91  65  98  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Light upslope winds and clear skies could give way to areas of
light ground fog after 09Z to around 14Z, otherwise expect VFR
conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  63  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  93  62  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  64  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  93  63  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  92  61  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  91  65  98  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Kruse



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Light upslope winds and clear skies could give way to areas of
light ground fog after 09Z to around 14Z, otherwise expect VFR
conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  63  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  93  62  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  64  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  93  63  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  92  61  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  91  65  98  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Light upslope winds and clear skies could give way to areas of
light ground fog after 09Z to around 14Z, otherwise expect VFR
conditions to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  63  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  93  62  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  64  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  93  63  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  92  61  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  91  65  98  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Kruse




000
FXUS63 KICT 301726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
PATCHY MVFR VSBY/CIGS MAY RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST PBL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 301726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
PATCHY MVFR VSBY/CIGS MAY RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST PBL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
PATCHY MVFR VSBY/CIGS MAY RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST PBL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN HOWEVER VFR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
PATCHY MVFR VSBY/CIGS MAY RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST PBL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 301725
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak surface ridge over much of Kansas and rather saturated lower
few thousand feet allowing for areas of stratus and fog, though
enough wind remains for neither element to prevail. Latest
observations and 11-3.9 satellite imagery would suggest a trend to
more fog and will monitor trends for possible advisories. A slowly
increasing pressure gradient over the high plains should bring a
steady decrease in fog and stratus as winds pick up, but stayed
below most guidance for highs. Further increases in winds tonight
should keep any redevelopment of fog in check with again somewhat
warmer temps anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Monday through Friday, a positive tilt upper ridge axis will
extended from NM northeast into the upper midwest on Monday. by
mid week the ridge axis will flatten out due to shortwave trough moving
across southern Canada and the northern plains. The upper ridge
axis will remain in place across the southern half of the US.
Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

A weak h5 trough will round the ridge axis across NE and provide
enough ascent for scattered elevated storms across northern and
central NE Tuesday evening and through the night. I placed a
slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night along the NE border
in case the ascent and isentropic lift is strong enough across the
extreme northern counties for an isolated elevated shower or
thunderstorm.

Saturday, a broad upper level trough will amplify across the western
US and begin to slowly expand eastward. Both the ECMWF and GFS show
minor lead H5 troughs lifting northeast ahead ahead of the main
upper trough across the central high plains. There may be enough
ascent for isolated showers and storms across north central KS
Saturday afternoon, though the greater chances will occur across
western KS closer to the the surface lee trough axis. The better
chances for thunderstorms across the CWA will occur Sunday night
and Monday as the amplified upper trough across the western US
lifts northeast across the northern and central plains Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFF CIGS should gradually become MVFR and at some point this
afternoon weak mixing and August sun should allow for skies to
scatter out as the weak sfc-850mb ridge breaks down and weak
southeast flow becomes established. At this point it appears that
CIGS should be VFR after 00z with sct cumulus which with another
night of radiational cooling/weak winds should give rise to a
period of MVFR VIS conds for a time Monday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Omitt




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301725
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak surface ridge over much of Kansas and rather saturated lower
few thousand feet allowing for areas of stratus and fog, though
enough wind remains for neither element to prevail. Latest
observations and 11-3.9 satellite imagery would suggest a trend to
more fog and will monitor trends for possible advisories. A slowly
increasing pressure gradient over the high plains should bring a
steady decrease in fog and stratus as winds pick up, but stayed
below most guidance for highs. Further increases in winds tonight
should keep any redevelopment of fog in check with again somewhat
warmer temps anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Monday through Friday, a positive tilt upper ridge axis will
extended from NM northeast into the upper midwest on Monday. by
mid week the ridge axis will flatten out due to shortwave trough moving
across southern Canada and the northern plains. The upper ridge
axis will remain in place across the southern half of the US.
Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

A weak h5 trough will round the ridge axis across NE and provide
enough ascent for scattered elevated storms across northern and
central NE Tuesday evening and through the night. I placed a
slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night along the NE border
in case the ascent and isentropic lift is strong enough across the
extreme northern counties for an isolated elevated shower or
thunderstorm.

Saturday, a broad upper level trough will amplify across the western
US and begin to slowly expand eastward. Both the ECMWF and GFS show
minor lead H5 troughs lifting northeast ahead ahead of the main
upper trough across the central high plains. There may be enough
ascent for isolated showers and storms across north central KS
Saturday afternoon, though the greater chances will occur across
western KS closer to the the surface lee trough axis. The better
chances for thunderstorms across the CWA will occur Sunday night
and Monday as the amplified upper trough across the western US
lifts northeast across the northern and central plains Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFF CIGS should gradually become MVFR and at some point this
afternoon weak mixing and August sun should allow for skies to
scatter out as the weak sfc-850mb ridge breaks down and weak
southeast flow becomes established. At this point it appears that
CIGS should be VFR after 00z with sct cumulus which with another
night of radiational cooling/weak winds should give rise to a
period of MVFR VIS conds for a time Monday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Omitt



000
FXUS63 KTOP 301725
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak surface ridge over much of Kansas and rather saturated lower
few thousand feet allowing for areas of stratus and fog, though
enough wind remains for neither element to prevail. Latest
observations and 11-3.9 satellite imagery would suggest a trend to
more fog and will monitor trends for possible advisories. A slowly
increasing pressure gradient over the high plains should bring a
steady decrease in fog and stratus as winds pick up, but stayed
below most guidance for highs. Further increases in winds tonight
should keep any redevelopment of fog in check with again somewhat
warmer temps anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Monday through Friday, a positive tilt upper ridge axis will
extended from NM northeast into the upper midwest on Monday. by
mid week the ridge axis will flatten out due to shortwave trough moving
across southern Canada and the northern plains. The upper ridge
axis will remain in place across the southern half of the US.
Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

A weak h5 trough will round the ridge axis across NE and provide
enough ascent for scattered elevated storms across northern and
central NE Tuesday evening and through the night. I placed a
slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night along the NE border
in case the ascent and isentropic lift is strong enough across the
extreme northern counties for an isolated elevated shower or
thunderstorm.

Saturday, a broad upper level trough will amplify across the western
US and begin to slowly expand eastward. Both the ECMWF and GFS show
minor lead H5 troughs lifting northeast ahead ahead of the main
upper trough across the central high plains. There may be enough
ascent for isolated showers and storms across north central KS
Saturday afternoon, though the greater chances will occur across
western KS closer to the the surface lee trough axis. The better
chances for thunderstorms across the CWA will occur Sunday night
and Monday as the amplified upper trough across the western US
lifts northeast across the northern and central plains Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFF CIGS should gradually become MVFR and at some point this
afternoon weak mixing and August sun should allow for skies to
scatter out as the weak sfc-850mb ridge breaks down and weak
southeast flow becomes established. At this point it appears that
CIGS should be VFR after 00z with sct cumulus which with another
night of radiational cooling/weak winds should give rise to a
period of MVFR VIS conds for a time Monday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Omitt




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301725
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1225 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak surface ridge over much of Kansas and rather saturated lower
few thousand feet allowing for areas of stratus and fog, though
enough wind remains for neither element to prevail. Latest
observations and 11-3.9 satellite imagery would suggest a trend to
more fog and will monitor trends for possible advisories. A slowly
increasing pressure gradient over the high plains should bring a
steady decrease in fog and stratus as winds pick up, but stayed
below most guidance for highs. Further increases in winds tonight
should keep any redevelopment of fog in check with again somewhat
warmer temps anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Monday through Friday, a positive tilt upper ridge axis will
extended from NM northeast into the upper midwest on Monday. by
mid week the ridge axis will flatten out due to shortwave trough moving
across southern Canada and the northern plains. The upper ridge
axis will remain in place across the southern half of the US.
Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

A weak h5 trough will round the ridge axis across NE and provide
enough ascent for scattered elevated storms across northern and
central NE Tuesday evening and through the night. I placed a
slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night along the NE border
in case the ascent and isentropic lift is strong enough across the
extreme northern counties for an isolated elevated shower or
thunderstorm.

Saturday, a broad upper level trough will amplify across the western
US and begin to slowly expand eastward. Both the ECMWF and GFS show
minor lead H5 troughs lifting northeast ahead ahead of the main
upper trough across the central high plains. There may be enough
ascent for isolated showers and storms across north central KS
Saturday afternoon, though the greater chances will occur across
western KS closer to the the surface lee trough axis. The better
chances for thunderstorms across the CWA will occur Sunday night
and Monday as the amplified upper trough across the western US
lifts northeast across the northern and central plains Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

IFF CIGS should gradually become MVFR and at some point this
afternoon weak mixing and August sun should allow for skies to
scatter out as the weak sfc-850mb ridge breaks down and weak
southeast flow becomes established. At this point it appears that
CIGS should be VFR after 00z with sct cumulus which with another
night of radiational cooling/weak winds should give rise to a
period of MVFR VIS conds for a time Monday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Omitt



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301500
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EXPERIENCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
CONDITIONS TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT EITHER MCK OR GLD.
THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301500
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
900 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EXPERIENCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
CONDITIONS TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT EITHER MCK OR GLD.
THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301301
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EXPERIENCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
CONDITIONS TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT EITHER MCK OR GLD.
THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ004-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301301
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EXPERIENCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
CONDITIONS TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT EITHER MCK OR GLD.
THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ004-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301301
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EXPERIENCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
CONDITIONS TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT EITHER MCK OR GLD.
THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ004-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301301
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EXPERIENCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
CONDITIONS TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT EITHER MCK OR GLD.
THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ004-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301150
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The ending of dense fog will be the main forecast challenge this
morning. Prevailing LIFR category fog conditions were carried at DDC
and HYS where conditions have oscillated  between one half and one
quarter mile the last few hours. 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery
indicates the fog bank is moving near gck as well, however this
occurrence is not yet certain. one the fog lifts mid morning VFR
category will prevail through the remainder of the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  94  65  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  68  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  94  67  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  95  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  95  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301150
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The ending of dense fog will be the main forecast challenge this
morning. Prevailing LIFR category fog conditions were carried at DDC
and HYS where conditions have oscillated  between one half and one
quarter mile the last few hours. 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery
indicates the fog bank is moving near gck as well, however this
occurrence is not yet certain. one the fog lifts mid morning VFR
category will prevail through the remainder of the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  94  65  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  68  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  94  67  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  95  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  95  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301150
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The ending of dense fog will be the main forecast challenge this
morning. Prevailing LIFR category fog conditions were carried at DDC
and HYS where conditions have oscillated  between one half and one
quarter mile the last few hours. 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery
indicates the fog bank is moving near gck as well, however this
occurrence is not yet certain. one the fog lifts mid morning VFR
category will prevail through the remainder of the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  94  65  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  68  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  94  67  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  95  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  95  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301150
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Main issue this morning is unforecast fog. Visibilities continue
to crash and several sites have been at dense fog advisory. Have a
dense fog advisory along and east of Ellis to Comanche counties.
It might need to be expanded a bit west towards Dodge City, but
not sure of this just yet. Fog should erode around 9AM or so.

Otherwise, Summer continues with hot temperatures and southerly
winds. Smoke may hamper temperatures a bit, but winds will not be
from the northeast either. Lows will be in the 60s for Monday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ECMWF continues to trend less impressive with storm chances for
the first half of the extended. An upper level ridge along with
downslope low level southwesterly winds will lead to hot
temperatures with values well into the 90s. There might be a
slight chance of storms along the Colorado border Monday night,
however, chances are dwindling with neutral mid level height
rises. Wednesday could be hottest as winds are most downslope and
25-30C 850 temperatures are forecast. More of the same continues
for the rest of the week with broad southwesterly upper level flow
and low level troughing. Confidence is any model solution drops
off significantly towards the end of the period but the overall
synoptic pattern suggests hot.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

The ending of dense fog will be the main forecast challenge this
morning. Prevailing LIFR category fog conditions were carried at DDC
and HYS where conditions have oscillated  between one half and one
quarter mile the last few hours. 11-3.9 micron satellite imagery
indicates the fog bank is moving near gck as well, however this
occurrence is not yet certain. one the fog lifts mid morning VFR
category will prevail through the remainder of the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  94  65  98  68 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  94  68  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  94  67  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  95  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  95  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ031-046-
064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KTOP 301141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak surface ridge over much of Kansas and rather saturated lower
few thousand feet allowing for areas of stratus and fog, though
enough wind remains for neither element to prevail. Latest
observations and 11-3.9 satellite imagery would suggest a trend to
more fog and will monitor trends for possible advisories. A slowly
increasing pressure gradient over the high plains should bring a
steady decrease in fog and stratus as winds pick up, but stayed
below most guidance for highs. Further increases in winds tonight
should keep any redevelopment of fog in check with again somewhat
warmer temps anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Monday through Friday, a positive tilt upper ridge axis will
extended from NM northeast into the upper midwest on Monday. by
mid week the ridge axis will flatten out due to shortwave trough moving
across southern Canada and the northern plains. The upper ridge
axis will remain in place across the southern half of the US.
Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

A weak h5 trough will round the ridge axis across NE and provide
enough ascent for scattered elevated storms across northern and
central NE Tuesday evening and through the night. I placed a
slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night along the NE border
in case the ascent and isentropic lift is strong enough across the
extreme northern counties for an isolated elevated shower or
thunderstorm.

Saturday, a broad upper level trough will amplify across the western
US and begin to slowly expand eastward. Both the ECMWF and GFS show
minor lead H5 troughs lifting northeast ahead ahead of the main
upper trough across the central high plains. There may be enough
ascent for isolated showers and storms across north central KS
Saturday afternoon, though the greater chances will occur across
western KS closer to the the surface lee trough axis. The better
chances for thunderstorms across the CWA will occur Sunday night
and Monday as the amplified upper trough across the western US
lifts northeast across the northern and central plains Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Timing and severity of stratus and fog are the main challenges.
Early view of 12Z sounding very close to model depictions of deep
moisture and expect mainly slow/minor improvements through 16Z
with VFR returning around 19Z. Given clear skies by 23Z, there
should be enough mixing after 02Z to keep a repeat fog/stratus
event in check.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-009-
020-021-034-035-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65



000
FXUS63 KTOP 301141
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Weak surface ridge over much of Kansas and rather saturated lower
few thousand feet allowing for areas of stratus and fog, though
enough wind remains for neither element to prevail. Latest
observations and 11-3.9 satellite imagery would suggest a trend to
more fog and will monitor trends for possible advisories. A slowly
increasing pressure gradient over the high plains should bring a
steady decrease in fog and stratus as winds pick up, but stayed
below most guidance for highs. Further increases in winds tonight
should keep any redevelopment of fog in check with again somewhat
warmer temps anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Monday through Friday, a positive tilt upper ridge axis will
extended from NM northeast into the upper midwest on Monday. by
mid week the ridge axis will flatten out due to shortwave trough moving
across southern Canada and the northern plains. The upper ridge
axis will remain in place across the southern half of the US.
Expect mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

A weak h5 trough will round the ridge axis across NE and provide
enough ascent for scattered elevated storms across northern and
central NE Tuesday evening and through the night. I placed a
slight chance for thunderstorms Tuesday night along the NE border
in case the ascent and isentropic lift is strong enough across the
extreme northern counties for an isolated elevated shower or
thunderstorm.

Saturday, a broad upper level trough will amplify across the western
US and begin to slowly expand eastward. Both the ECMWF and GFS show
minor lead H5 troughs lifting northeast ahead ahead of the main
upper trough across the central high plains. There may be enough
ascent for isolated showers and storms across north central KS
Saturday afternoon, though the greater chances will occur across
western KS closer to the the surface lee trough axis. The better
chances for thunderstorms across the CWA will occur Sunday night
and Monday as the amplified upper trough across the western US
lifts northeast across the northern and central plains Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Timing and severity of stratus and fog are the main challenges.
Early view of 12Z sounding very close to model depictions of deep
moisture and expect mainly slow/minor improvements through 16Z
with VFR returning around 19Z. Given clear skies by 23Z, there
should be enough mixing after 02Z to keep a repeat fog/stratus
event in check.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-009-
020-021-034-035-037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EXPERIENCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
CONDITIONS TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT EITHER MCK OR GLD.
THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WHILE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA EXPERIENCE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WITH FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT THOSE
CONDITIONS TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT EITHER MCK OR GLD.
THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KICT 301111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 301111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 301111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 301111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 301111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 301111
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RADIATIONAL FOG/STRATUS HAS PROMPTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO TUMBLE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE WORST OF THE FOG EXPECTED IN A BROAD SWATH FROM
ROUGHLY KHUT TO COTTONWOOD FALLS. EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS WELL
INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB. HAVE
BACKED OFF ON MAXES ONCE AGAIN...BUT COULD SEE THEM GOING EITHER
WAY GIVEN HOW MUCH MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ABSENCE OF CONVECTION YESTERDAY IN SE KS...OPTED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS DESPITE IMPRESSIVE 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND PROXIMITY OF UPPER CIRCULATION. CONVECTION THAT DID
OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY SEEMED TO BE
ANCHORED TO 500MB TROUGH. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...
BUT PLAN TO LET DAY SHIFT DIAGNOSE THAT CLOSER.

MON-TUE:
ADVERTISED RIDGING STILL LOOKS GOOD THIS PERIOD. MODELS STRUGGLING
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
RESULTING THREAT OF ELEVATED PRECIPITATION. INHERITED FORECAST WAS
NEARLY DRY...AND TRIMMED BACK A BIT MORE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. WARMER TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING
FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SLIM GIVEN FASTER FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. BASED ON PATTERN VERIFICATION...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN INITIALIZATION GRIDS.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT ALL OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE EAST THEN
SOUTHEAST.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      86  64  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          85  65  93  68 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        85  65  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  66  94  70 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         89  63  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      88  63  97  69 /   0   0  10  10
SALINA          85  65  94  69 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       86  64  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         85  67  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            84  67  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091.

&&

$$




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