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000
FXUS63 KTOP 200749
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

07Z water vapor imagery shows the main shortwave still over
southwest NM with bits of vorticity lifting out across the TX and OK
panhandles into western KS. Surface obs show an inverted trough of
low pressure extending from southeastern CO into eastern NEB. Low
level moisture return has been less than impressive and even now
with a good low level jet higher dewpoints seem to be stuck along
the TX gulf coast. Models PROG the upper shortwave to move out
across OK and KS today and tonight. This wave should bring some
cooler mid level temps and steepening lapse rates that is expected
to remove any inhibition to convection. However models show the
magnitude of the large scale forcing to be weak. Additionally the
main surface feature for focusing low level convergence remains
mainly to the northwest of the forecast area today. So with
instability driven mainly by day time heating, think convection will
be scattered in nature and may be more hit or miss due to the
relative lack of a dominate feature to focus convection. CAPE values
are expected to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/km range but deep layer
shear continues to be unimpressive. This suggests chances for severe
weather remains low. With some insolation and southerly low level
winds persisting through the day, highs are forecast to warm into
the mid and upper 70s.

The main question for tonight is whether convection falls apart with
the loss of day time heating or if the mid level deformation and
weak forcing of the upper wave will allow precip to fester
overnight. Think the lessening of instability overnight may cause
coverage to lessen, so have shown POPs to trend lower overnight but
will keep a chance for precip as the GFS and ECMWF continue to
generate some light QPF. Lows tonight should remain mild since the
boundary doesn`t make much of a push until Monday morning. The
forecast shows low generally in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

By 12Z Monday morning, consensus guidance progs the cold front to be
entering far north central Kansas. Due to forcing along the boundary
combined with maximum lift from the upper trough axis, have
maintained chances for thunderstorms, highest being across
east central and far northeast areas through mid afternoon. Elevated
instability increases during this time while shear profiles remain
weak below 20 kts therefore severe storms are not expected. Main
concerns on Monday will be the heavy rain potential as deep moisture
raises PWAT values peak between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. Dry air works
its way southeast behind the front by late afternoon with precip
chances ending early Monday evening. Upper ridge on Tuesday will
spell quiet and warm conditions across the area with highs
remaining in the low 70s.

A negatively tilted trough deepens and lifts northeast over the
Inter-mountain west late Tuesday evening, ejecting a leading
shortwave trough into the northern and central plains. An aiding low
level jet will develop showers and thunderstorms over north central
Kansas. The GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent in timing with the
GFS being a tad slower. The 00Z NAM carries less moisture
availability and so will maintain chance pops from previous
forecast.

A warm and moist air mass builds in the central plains Wednesday
afternoon with the dry line and cold front set up across western
Kansas and Nebraska. As the upper trough lifts northeast, showers
and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the aforementioned
boundaries late Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance has been
consistent with this activity developing west of the CWA and
progressing eastward with the cold front Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Precip chances were increased to likely for Wednesday
evening. While the capping inversion holds through the day at CNK,
elevated severe storms would be possible (especially over north
central Kansas) with instability near 1000 J/KG and effective shear
(0-6km) in excess of 50 kts. The ECMWF is the slightly faster
solution than the GFS, however both clear precip out of the area
Thursday afternoon. Will continue to monitor this system as changes
are likely in the depth of instability and timing. Highs during
this time peak in the upper 70s Wednesday and lower 70s Thursday.

Next system looks to impact the area Saturday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the day. ECMWF/GFS are trending a
cool Canadian airmass further south behind a cold front with highs
Saturday in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200749
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
249 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

07Z water vapor imagery shows the main shortwave still over
southwest NM with bits of vorticity lifting out across the TX and OK
panhandles into western KS. Surface obs show an inverted trough of
low pressure extending from southeastern CO into eastern NEB. Low
level moisture return has been less than impressive and even now
with a good low level jet higher dewpoints seem to be stuck along
the TX gulf coast. Models PROG the upper shortwave to move out
across OK and KS today and tonight. This wave should bring some
cooler mid level temps and steepening lapse rates that is expected
to remove any inhibition to convection. However models show the
magnitude of the large scale forcing to be weak. Additionally the
main surface feature for focusing low level convergence remains
mainly to the northwest of the forecast area today. So with
instability driven mainly by day time heating, think convection will
be scattered in nature and may be more hit or miss due to the
relative lack of a dominate feature to focus convection. CAPE values
are expected to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/km range but deep layer
shear continues to be unimpressive. This suggests chances for severe
weather remains low. With some insolation and southerly low level
winds persisting through the day, highs are forecast to warm into
the mid and upper 70s.

The main question for tonight is whether convection falls apart with
the loss of day time heating or if the mid level deformation and
weak forcing of the upper wave will allow precip to fester
overnight. Think the lessening of instability overnight may cause
coverage to lessen, so have shown POPs to trend lower overnight but
will keep a chance for precip as the GFS and ECMWF continue to
generate some light QPF. Lows tonight should remain mild since the
boundary doesn`t make much of a push until Monday morning. The
forecast shows low generally in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

By 12Z Monday morning, consensus guidance progs the cold front to be
entering far north central Kansas. Due to forcing along the boundary
combined with maximum lift from the upper trough axis, have
maintained chances for thunderstorms, highest being across
east central and far northeast areas through mid afternoon. Elevated
instability increases during this time while shear profiles remain
weak below 20 kts therefore severe storms are not expected. Main
concerns on Monday will be the heavy rain potential as deep moisture
raises PWAT values peak between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. Dry air works
its way southeast behind the front by late afternoon with precip
chances ending early Monday evening. Upper ridge on Tuesday will
spell quiet and warm conditions across the area with highs
remaining in the low 70s.

A negatively tilted trough deepens and lifts northeast over the
Inter-mountain west late Tuesday evening, ejecting a leading
shortwave trough into the northern and central plains. An aiding low
level jet will develop showers and thunderstorms over north central
Kansas. The GFS and ECMWF are fairly consistent in timing with the
GFS being a tad slower. The 00Z NAM carries less moisture
availability and so will maintain chance pops from previous
forecast.

A warm and moist air mass builds in the central plains Wednesday
afternoon with the dry line and cold front set up across western
Kansas and Nebraska. As the upper trough lifts northeast, showers
and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the aforementioned
boundaries late Wednesday afternoon. Latest guidance has been
consistent with this activity developing west of the CWA and
progressing eastward with the cold front Wednesday evening into
Thursday. Precip chances were increased to likely for Wednesday
evening. While the capping inversion holds through the day at CNK,
elevated severe storms would be possible (especially over north
central Kansas) with instability near 1000 J/KG and effective shear
(0-6km) in excess of 50 kts. The ECMWF is the slightly faster
solution than the GFS, however both clear precip out of the area
Thursday afternoon. Will continue to monitor this system as changes
are likely in the depth of instability and timing. Highs during
this time peak in the upper 70s Wednesday and lower 70s Thursday.

Next system looks to impact the area Saturday with chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the day. ECMWF/GFS are trending a
cool Canadian airmass further south behind a cold front with highs
Saturday in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan





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000
FXUS63 KDDC 200544
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1244 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The atmosphere across North America was quite energetic with five
storm systems affecting at least some portion of North America.
Three of these disturbances were lined up from west to east along
the northern polar jet along the Canada-CONUS border. There were two
lows along the southern branch of the westerlies, with the most
impactful storm system close to home centered over the Desert
Southwest region. There was quite a bit of mid level moisture
(particularly from 12 to 20 thousand feet) from western Kansas down
into West Texas and into much of New Mexico. An important surface
boundary stretched from northeastern Nebraska down into far
west-central Kansas to a surface low across far southeastern
Colorado. Marginal Gulf of Mexico moisture was working northward
through West Texas with 850mb dewpoints in the upper single digits
(degC) and surface dewpoints from the upper 40s to lower 50s (degF)
from southwest Kansas into West Texas. As of mid afternoon, shower
and thunderstorm activity tied to the southwest low was focused on
far West Texas near the New Mexico border into central and eastern
New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

As the mean 500-700mb low approaches southwestern Kansas late
tonight into Sunday, precipitation will markedly increase. For this
evening, shower and thunderstorm activity will develop after 22Z
along the quasi-stationary from across far west-central Kansas into
southeastern Colorado. This is where the highest POPs will be 30-40
percent from Wakeeney southwest to Syracuse. Given the paltry
surface-based instability (only a few hundred J/kg CAPE), only
sub-severe convection is expected.  It will be a mild overnight with
mostly cloud skies continuing and south winds staying up in the 12
to 16 knot range. This will result in overnight lows only down to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations, especially along and east
of Highway 283 where winds will be a bit stronger through the night.

Much more numerous and organized shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected on Sunday. Using a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, the best
area for the most organized precipitation will likely be along a
corridor from Rolla to Meade northward to Lakin to Kalvesta and
northeast later on in the afternoon Jetmore to Ness to Hays areas. A
few locations in this region may see an excess of one-half inch of
much-need rainfall. Most areas will likely see three to five tenths
of an inch...along the deep low level convergence zone (surface to
800mb or so). Other scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop farther east within the zone of broad southerly low level
winds and increasing moisture. Any sort of sunshine that occurs will
destabilize the atmosphere enough to support convection with 700mb
temperatures around +2C. There may be an isolated report of
marginally severe hail in the strongest storm tomorrow, however the
thermodynamic profile does not really favor hail storms given the
poor mid level lapse rates and rather moist 500-700mb layer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will continue Sunday night as the upper
level system moves over western Kansas and a surface cold front
shifts eastward. The best chance of precipitation will be across
central and south central Kansas with far western Kansas remaining
dry. Skies will be mostly cloudy with southerly winds ahead of the
front and northwest winds behind the front. Precipitation chances
end by sunrise Monday with clearing skies from west to east during
the day Monday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected
Monday through Tuesday night as an upper level ridge builds above
the Plains. Winds will generally be from the northeast on Monday
shifting to the south Monday night through Tuesday night. Highs
Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the 70s. Lows Monday morning
are expected to range from the upper 40s across far western Kansas
to mid 50s across central and south central Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning look to dip into the mid to upper 40s.

The next storm system enters the Western United States on Tuesday,
then shifts eastward into the Northern Rockies on Wednesday. A
moderate upper level jet will be found above western Kansas by
Wednesday afternoon enhancing lift across the area. Westerly winds
will be observed in the mid levels of the atmosphere with increasing
moisture. Southerly winds will be felt at the surface due to a
trough of low pressure located across eastern Colorado. In addition,
a dryline is suggested by the models to develop in the afternoon
with CAPE and shear increasing as the day progresses. These
conditions will bring a chance of thunderstorms ahead of
the dryline from late afternoon into Wednesday night. A few of
these storms could become strong to severe if the models continue
with what they are showing. A cold front then moves through western
Kansas Thursday morning shifting winds to the north. Dry conditions
are then expected during the remainder of the extended period as an
upper level ridge builds above the Plains. Winds shift back to the
south by Saturday as the next storm system entered the western
United States. Highs Wednesday are forecasted to reach into the
lower to mid 80s with lows Thursday morning ranging from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas.
Highs Thursday and Friday look to reach into the lower to mid 70s
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

An area of light rain showers will push up into southwest Kansas
early this morning. Will carry a tempo group for light rain
showers at Garden City where the bulk of these showers will move
through. Will also carry VCSH at Dodge City. Additional showers
will develop and move through the Dodge City and Hays areas
through the morning hours. Any ceilings that develop should stay
in the VFR category through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  75  47  77 /  50  10   0  10
GCK  51  75  46  78 /  50  10   0  10
EHA  49  75  48  80 /  40  10   0  10
LBL  51  77  48  80 /  50  10   0  10
HYS  56  74  45  76 /  60  10   0  10
P28  57  77  47  77 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard






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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200512
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1112 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AT 20Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A NORTON TO LEOTI LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 1000-1500
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 20-30KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES QUICKLY DROP OFF
BY 01Z...SO ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE WILL RAPIDLY SHRINK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH NONZERO
MUCAPE.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE AROUND ON SUNDAY...BUT HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION DUE TO INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MODELS SHOW CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN
THE EASTER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE BUT DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR WILL BE EVEN LOWER...LESS THAN 20KTS. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT. SO EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE
LINE...BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE.
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS POINT. QPF
WILL BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 RANGE IN THE EAST...WITH LESS THAN 0.10
IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...LINGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL ZONE LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE
AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS EAST BEHIND UPPER TROUGH. RIDING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TUESDAY WILL BE TIED
TO DRY LINE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SPREADING
INTO KS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FORCING...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SO I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TIED TO DIURNAL TRENDS WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY
ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AFTER SUNSET. WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RFW
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS RANGE IN TIMING OF DRY
LINE PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND 3HR REQUIREMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN CWA AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. MAIN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO PLAINS ON WED NIGHT WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT GOOD SW FLOW ADVECTING
HIGHER TD VALUES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS/EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...AND
NARROW AXIS OF GOOD INSTABILITY GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. DETAILS ON UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION AND SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER IF PATTERN WERE TO PLAY OUT
AS GFS/ECMWF CURRENTLY DEPICT WE COULD HAVE A SET UP FOR OUR FIRST
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHEER PROFILES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS...AND GFS SHOW SB/MIXED LAYER
CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. ITS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
(ESPECIALLY WITH RUN-RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES)...HOWEVER IT IS WORTH
MONITORING.

INCREASING MIXING/GRADIENT WINDS COULD ALSO RESULT IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS WEDNESDAY. LOWER TD VALUES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND DRY LINE...AND AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA WOULD
LIKELY REACH 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR RFW CONDITIONS BASED ON CURRENT
RH/WIND FORECAST.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SHOWN TO MOVE IN THE PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD ON EVOLUTION
OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY IN A
RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
SATURDAY.

REGARDING TEMPS...FORECAST IS GENERALLY CALLING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S/80S. WITH
NORTHERN JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND WARMER AIR MASS WELL
ENTRENCHED IN THE PLAINS THIS IS REASONABLE. THERE MAY BE TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MCK AND GLD TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY OVER FOR THE NIGHT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MCK VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT
09Z TONIGHT. BY 16Z SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-24Z AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. AFTER 02Z SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT
SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KTOP 200449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 200449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 200449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan





000
FXUS63 KTOP 200449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Will go ahead with
LLWS mention given radar and higher resolution model data. Still
not highly confident in TSRA timing and coverage, but enough
uptick in activity expected to warrant VCTS during peak heating,
with likely slow movement and high water content leading to IFR
visibilities in any storm at the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 200422
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1122 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY-MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS ACROSS RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON EASTER DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MLCAPE IS PROGGED TO
RISE INTO THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED REGIME.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AND
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH NICKEL TO PERHAPS QUARTER SIZE HAIL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING   . THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15-18Z ON MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA WITH STABLE POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE LATE
IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS LATE WED/WED NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE PAC FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEGIN TO
RECOVER AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OF
EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  75  58  73 /  10  60  60  40
HUTCHINSON      57  75  57  75 /  20  60  60  10
NEWTON          57  74  57  70 /  10  60  60  50
ELDORADO        58  74  58  71 /  10  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  75  59  74 /  10  60  60  30
RUSSELL         57  76  57  72 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      56  75  55  74 /  20  60  50  10
SALINA          61  78  59  75 /  10  60  60  30
MCPHERSON       58  75  57  73 /  10  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     56  77  61  75 /  10  60  70  60
CHANUTE         56  77  60  74 /  10  60  70  60
IOLA            56  76  60  72 /  10  60  70  60
PARSONS-KPPF    56  77  62  74 /  10  60  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 192345
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AT 20Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A NORTON TO LEOTI LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 1000-1500
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 20-30KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES QUICKLY DROP OFF
BY 01Z...SO ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE WILL RAPIDLY SHRINK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH NONZERO
MUCAPE.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE AROUND ON SUNDAY...BUT HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION DUE TO INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MODELS SHOW CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN
THE EASTER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE BUT DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR WILL BE EVEN LOWER...LESS THAN 20KTS. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT. SO EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE
LINE...BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE.
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS POINT. QPF
WILL BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 RANGE IN THE EAST...WITH LESS THAN 0.10
IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...LINGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL ZONE LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE
AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS EAST BEHIND UPPER TROUGH. RIDING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TUESDAY WILL BE TIED
TO DRY LINE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SPREADING
INTO KS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FORCING...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SO I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TIED TO DIURNAL TRENDS WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY
ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AFTER SUNSET. WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RFW
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS RANGE IN TIMING OF DRY
LINE PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND 3HR REQUIREMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN CWA AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. MAIN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO PLAINS ON WED NIGHT WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT GOOD SW FLOW ADVECTING
HIGHER TD VALUES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS/EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...AND
NARROW AXIS OF GOOD INSTABILITY GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. DETAILS ON UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION AND SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER IF PATTERN WERE TO PLAY OUT
AS GFS/ECMWF CURRENTLY DEPICT WE COULD HAVE A SET UP FOR OUR FIRST
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHEER PROFILES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS...AND GFS SHOW SB/MIXED LAYER
CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. ITS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
(ESPECIALLY WITH RUN-RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES)...HOWEVER IT IS WORTH
MONITORING.

INCREASING MIXING/GRADIENT WINDS COULD ALSO RESULT IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS WEDNESDAY. LOWER TD VALUES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND DRY LINE...AND AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA WOULD
LIKELY REACH 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR RFW CONDITIONS BASED ON CURRENT
RH/WIND FORECAST.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SHOWN TO MOVE IN THE PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD ON EVOLUTION
OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY IN A
RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
SATURDAY.

REGARDING TEMPS...FORECAST IS GENERALLY CALLING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S/80S. WITH
NORTHERN JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND WARMER AIR MASS WELL
ENTRENCHED IN THE PLAINS THIS IS REASONABLE. THERE MAY BE TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS. SOME DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH OF KGLD AND KMCK. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AND LITTLE WILL CHANGE
DURING THE PERIOD. PERIOD OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL OCCUR...BUT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BRB







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192340
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 640 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions expected. Minor wind shear concerns in the 04-14Z
period with SSW winds near 40kt possible at all sites. Chances for
convection increase late in the period but too low confidence on
where and when it would be for mention at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 192340
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 640 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions expected. Minor wind shear concerns in the 04-14Z
period with SSW winds near 40kt possible at all sites. Chances for
convection increase late in the period but too low confidence on
where and when it would be for mention at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KICT 192308
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
608 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY-MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS ACROSS RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON EASTER DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MLCAPE IS PROGGED TO
RISE INTO THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED REGIME.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AND
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH NICKEL TO PERHAPS QUARTER SIZE HAIL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING   . THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15-18Z ON MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA WITH STABLE POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE LATE
IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS LATE WED/WED NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE PAC FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE NEXT 24HRS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET. A UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS COULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEGIN TO
RECOVER AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OF
EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  75  58  73 /  10  60  60  40
HUTCHINSON      57  75  57  75 /  20  60  60  10
NEWTON          57  74  57  70 /  10  60  60  50
ELDORADO        58  74  58  71 /  10  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  75  59  74 /  10  60  60  30
RUSSELL         57  76  57  72 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      56  75  55  74 /  20  60  50  10
SALINA          61  78  59  75 /  10  60  60  30
MCPHERSON       58  75  57  73 /  10  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     56  77  61  75 /  10  60  70  60
CHANUTE         56  77  60  74 /  10  60  70  60
IOLA            56  76  60  72 /  10  60  70  60
PARSONS-KPPF    56  77  62  74 /  10  60  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 192308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The atmosphere across North America was quite energetic with five
storm systems affecting at least some portion of North America.
Three of these disturbances were lined up from west to east along
the northern polar jet along the Canada-CONUS border. There were two
lows along the southern branch of the westerlies, with the most
impactful storm system close to home centered over the Desert
Southwest region. There was quite a bit of mid level moisture
(particularly from 12 to 20 thousand feet) from western Kansas down
into West Texas and into much of New Mexico. An important surface
boundary stretched from northeastern Nebraska down into far
west-central Kansas to a surface low across far southeastern
Colorado. Marginal Gulf of Mexico moisture was working northward
through West Texas with 850mb dewpoints in the upper single digits
(degC) and surface dewpoints from the upper 40s to lower 50s (degF)
from southwest Kansas into West Texas. As of mid afternoon, shower
and thunderstorm activity tied to the southwest low was focused on
far West Texas near the New Mexico border into central and eastern
New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

As the mean 500-700mb low approaches southwestern Kansas late
tonight into Sunday, precipitation will markedly increase. For this
evening, shower and thunderstorm activity will develop after 22Z
along the quasi-stationary from across far west-central Kansas into
southeastern Colorado. This is where the highest POPs will be 30-40
percent from Wakeeney southwest to Syracuse. Given the paltry
surface-based instability (only a few hundred J/kg CAPE), only
sub-severe convection is expected.  It will be a mild overnight with
mostly cloud skies continuing and south winds staying up in the 12
to 16 knot range. This will result in overnight lows only down to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations, especially along and east
of Highway 283 where winds will be a bit stronger through the night.

Much more numerous and organized shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected on Sunday. Using a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, the best
area for the most organized precipitation will likely be along a
corridor from Rolla to Meade northward to Lakin to Kalvesta and
northeast later on in the afternoon Jetmore to Ness to Hays areas. A
few locations in this region may see an excess of one-half inch of
much-need rainfall. Most areas will likely see three to five tenths
of an inch...along the deep low level convergence zone (surface to
800mb or so). Other scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop farther east within the zone of broad southerly low level
winds and increasing moisture. Any sort of sunshine that occurs will
destabilize the atmosphere enough to support convection with 700mb
temperatures around +2C. There may be an isolated report of
marginally severe hail in the strongest storm tomorrow, however the
thermodynamic profile does not really favor hail storms given the
poor mid level lapse rates and rather moist 500-700mb layer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will continue Sunday night as the upper
level system moves over western Kansas and a surface cold front
shifts eastward. The best chance of precipitation will be across
central and south central Kansas with far western Kansas remaining
dry. Skies will be mostly cloudy with southerly winds ahead of the
front and northwest winds behind the front. Precipitation chances
end by sunrise Monday with clearing skies from west to east during
the day Monday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected
Monday through Tuesday night as an upper level ridge builds above
the Plains. Winds will generally be from the northeast on Monday
shifting to the south Monday night through Tuesday night. Highs
Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the 70s. Lows Monday morning
are expected to range from the upper 40s across far western Kansas
to mid 50s across central and south central Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning look to dip into the mid to upper 40s.

The next storm system enters the Western United States on Tuesday,
then shifts eastward into the Northern Rockies on Wednesday. A
moderate upper level jet will be found above western Kansas by
Wednesday afternoon enhancing lift across the area. Westerly winds
will be observed in the mid levels of the atmosphere with increasing
moisture. Southerly winds will be felt at the surface due to a
trough of low pressure located across eastern Colorado. In addition,
a dryline is suggested by the models to develop in the afternoon
with CAPE and shear increasing as the day progresses. These
conditions will bring a chance of thunderstorms ahead of
the dryline from late afternoon into Wednesday night. A few of
these storms could become strong to severe if the models continue
with what they are showing. A cold front then moves through western
Kansas Thursday morning shifting winds to the north. Dry conditions
are then expected during the remainder of the extended period as an
upper level ridge builds above the Plains. Winds shift back to the
south by Saturday as the next storm system entered the western
United States. Highs Wednesday are forecasted to reach into the
lower to mid 80s with lows Thursday morning ranging from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas.
Highs Thursday and Friday look to reach into the lower to mid 70s
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A surface boundary will remain nearly stationary overnight and
early Sunday from east central Colorado into south central
Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected near this
boundary early tonight as a upper level disturbance moves across
the Central High Plains. At this time based on where this surface
boundary was located at 22z, the latest radar trends, and 19z HRRR
will go ahead and insert a VCTS into the GCK and HYS tafs for the
next hour or two. Model soundings overnight indicating moisture
return ahead of this upper level disturbance will be at or above
the 800mb level so VFR conditions are expected. Southerly winds
will decrease to10 to 15 kts after 03z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  75  53  75 /  10  50  50  10
GCK  54  72  51  75 /  20  70  50  10
EHA  51  71  49  75 /  20  60  40  10
LBL  53  73  51  77 /  10  70  50  10
HYS  57  75  56  74 /  20  60  60  10
P28  58  75  57  77 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192058
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
of 18 KTS to 23 KTS with gusts of 26 KTS to 34 KTS will continue
through the afternoon hours. By sunset winds should diminish below
14 KTS. High and mid level clouds will increase through the night
into Sunday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 192058
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

An upper level trough across the desert southwest will slowly lift
northeast into the southern and central plains before phasing with
an upper level trough within the polar jet moving east across the
northern plains into the upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms will probably develop later this afternoon across
western KS and north of a surface cold front across northwest KS and
central NE. These showers and thunderstorms will move northeast and
may expand southward into north central KS later this evening and
through the night. The cold front across northwest KS will become
stationary or move northward across southwest NE while the surface
dryline retreats towards the CO border.

As the stronger ascent ahead of the upper level trough spreads
across the state of KS Sunday afternoon, more numerous showers and
thunderstorms should develop across the western CWA and then spread
northeast across the eastern counties of the CWA during the late
afternoon hours. The upper level trough will be filling as it lifts
northeast across the central and southern plains. SBCAPE is forecast
to be about 500 to 1200 J/KG across the CWA Sunday afternoon, though
the effective 0-6KM shear will be less than 20 KTS, and the vertical
wind shear will be weakening through the afternoon. Areas that may
destabilize could experience pulse storms with small hail and gusty
winds Sunday afternoon.

Southerly winds Tonight will keep overnight lows mild, with lows
only dropping down into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Southerly winds
with potentially some breaks in the cloud cover will help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Precipitation chances increase Sunday night into Monday as the
mid-level low currently over the southwestern U.S. lifts
northeastward into the Central Plains and merges with the northern
stream of the mid-level flow. This approaching mid-level wave
combined with a surface cold front that will track eastward across
the forecast area overnight through late Monday morning will
provide enough forcing to support the development of showers and
thunderstorms. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expect
these storms to become elevated during the evening hours. Soundings
show modest lapse rates in place through the overnight hours,
however 0-6km bulk shear continues to look extremely weak at less
than 20kts, so do not anticipate severe weather. However, model
soundings show a deep saturation layer present through much of the
overnight hours into Monday morning with PWAT values reaching
upwards of 1.5 inches, so could receive some decent rainfall amounts
from this system. These showers and thunderstorms will gradually
exit the area from west to east on Monday with dry conditions by
Monday night. Overcast skies and southerly winds Sunday night will
limit radiational cooling and help to keep lows mild in the
mid/upper 50s. Skies will clear through the day on Monday behind the
frontal passage but winds will become breezy out of the north.
However, there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air behind
this system, so have Monday highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid
70s. A brief dry period is expected Monday night through Tuesday as
a mid-level ridge moves into the central U.S., along with surface
high pressure.

Focus then shifts to the mid-level trough that begins to develop
across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and progresses eastward into
the Northern and Central Plains from mid to late week. Models are
continuing to highlight the potential for a few embedded shortwaves
to develop along the southeastern edge of the trough, with enough
mid-level lift to potentially support the development of some
scattered showers and thunderstorms. However, model soundings show
that if anything were able to develop it would be very high based as
conditions remain quite dry up to at least 700mb. While confidence
remains low with this activity, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in for Tuesday night into Wednesday due to the consistency
amongst the models. High temperatures for Wednesday should soar
several degrees above the seasonal normals as strong southerly flow
helps to advect warmer air into the region. Have continued to trend
upward with temperatures, with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, models show the large mid-level
trough swiftly tracking across the Rockies into the Northern and
Central Plains, which will help to push an area of surface low
pressure into the area along with an associated cold front. The 12z
GFS has started to trend more toward the consistently progressive
ECMWF solution, however there are still minor differences with the
exact timing of the frontal passage. The ECMWF has the cold front
tracking east of the area by mid morning while the GFS has it moving
through by early afternoon. Models show showers and thunderstorms
developing generally along and behind the cold front and in the
vicinity of the dryline, but with the progressive nature of this
system precipitation may quickly track across the area through the
day, drying out from west to east during the afternoon hours. On
Thursday, while there looks to be decent 0-6km shear (40-50kts),
MUCAPE may be limited to less than 700 J/kg. Will continue to
fine-tune the details with future forecast updates, but have gone
ahead and gone dry for Thursday night with the trending faster
solutions. Expect slightly cooler conditions behind this system for
the end of the week into the weekend with high temperatures dropping
into the mid 60s to low 70s. Another weak wave may clip the region
on Saturday, but have only slight chance PoPs in due to model
uncertainty this far out in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
of 18 KTS to 23 KTS with gusts of 26 KTS to 34 KTS will continue
through the afternoon hours. By sunset winds should diminish below
14 KTS. High and mid level clouds will increase through the night
into Sunday morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KGLD 192050
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AT 20Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A NORTON TO LEOTI LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 1000-1500
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 20-30KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES QUICKLY DROP OFF
BY 01Z...SO ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE WILL RAPIDLY SHRINK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH NONZERO
MUCAPE.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE AROUND ON SUNDAY...BUT HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION DUE TO INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MODELS SHOW CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN
THE EASTER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE BUT DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR WILL BE EVEN LOWER...LESS THAN 20KTS. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT. SO EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE
LINE...BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE.
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS POINT. QPF
WILL BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 RANGE IN THE EAST...WITH LESS THAN 0.10
IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...LINGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL ZONE LINGERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...OTHERWISE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE
AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS EAST BEHIND UPPER TROUGH. RIDING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TUESDAY WILL BE TIED
TO DRY LINE PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND SPREADING
INTO KS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FORCING...AND LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SO I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN COVERAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TIED TO DIURNAL TRENDS WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY
ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AFTER SUNSET. WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RFW
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS RANGE IN TIMING OF DRY
LINE PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND 3HR REQUIREMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
EASTERN CWA AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WELL
DEFINED DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. MAIN TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO PLAINS ON WED NIGHT WHICH
COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT GOOD SW FLOW ADVECTING
HIGHER TD VALUES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS/EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA...AND
NARROW AXIS OF GOOD INSTABILITY GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. DETAILS ON UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION AND SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER IF PATTERN WERE TO PLAY OUT
AS GFS/ECMWF CURRENTLY DEPICT WE COULD HAVE A SET UP FOR OUR FIRST
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHEER PROFILES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS...AND GFS SHOW SB/MIXED LAYER
CAPE 1500-2000 J/KG. ITS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO LOWER CONFIDENCE
(ESPECIALLY WITH RUN-RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES)...HOWEVER IT IS WORTH
MONITORING.

INCREASING MIXING/GRADIENT WINDS COULD ALSO RESULT IN ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS WEDNESDAY. LOWER TD VALUES EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST BEHIND DRY LINE...AND AT LEAST PART OF OUR CWA WOULD
LIKELY REACH 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR RFW CONDITIONS BASED ON CURRENT
RH/WIND FORECAST.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN PLACE. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SHOWN TO MOVE IN THE PLAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SPREAD ON EVOLUTION
OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY IN A
RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE
SATURDAY.

REGARDING TEMPS...FORECAST IS GENERALLY CALLING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S/80S. WITH
NORTHERN JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND WARMER AIR MASS WELL
ENTRENCHED IN THE PLAINS THIS IS REASONABLE. THERE MAY BE TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT SATURDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS OCCURRED AT BOTH TERMINALS AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WELL SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL MAINLY THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024







000
FXUS63 KDDC 192044
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
344 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated Synopsis and Short Term sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The atmosphere across North America was quite energetic with five
storm systems affecting at least some portion of North America.
Three of these disturbances were lined up from west to east along
the northern polar jet along the Canada-CONUS border. There were two
lows along the southern branch of the westerlies, with the most
impactful storm system close to home centered over the Desert
Southwest region. There was quite a bit of mid level moisture
(particularly from 12 to 20 thousand feet) from western Kansas down
into West Texas and into much of New Mexico. An important surface
boundary stretched from northeastern Nebraska down into far
west-central Kansas to a surface low across far southeastern
Colorado. Marginal Gulf of Mexico moisture was working northward
through West Texas with 850mb dewpoints in the upper single digits
(degC) and surface dewpoints from the upper 40s to lower 50s (degF)
from southwest Kansas into West Texas. As of mid afternoon, shower
and thunderstorm activity tied to the southwest low was focused on
far West Texas near the New Mexico border into central and eastern
New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

As the mean 500-700mb low approaches southwestern Kansas late
tonight into Sunday, precipitation will markedly increase. For this
evening, shower and thunderstorm activity will develop after 22Z
along the quasi-stationary from across far west-central Kansas into
southeastern Colorado. This is where the highest POPs will be 30-40
percent from Wakeeney southwest to Syracuse. Given the paltry
surface-based instability (only a few hundred J/kg CAPE), only
sub-severe convection is expected.  It will be a mild overnight with
mostly cloud skies continuing and south winds staying up in the 12
to 16 knot range. This will result in overnight lows only down to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations, especially along and east
of Highway 283 where winds will be a bit stronger through the night.

Much more numerous and organized shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected on Sunday. Using a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, the best
area for the most organized precipitation will likely be along a
corridor from Rolla to Meade northward to Lakin to Kalvesta and
northeast later on in the afternoon Jetmore to Ness to Hays areas. A
few locations in this region may see an excess of one-half inch of
much-need rainfall. Most areas will likely see three to five tenths
of an inch...along the deep low level convergence zone (surface to
800mb or so). Other scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop farther east within the zone of broad southerly low level
winds and increasing moisture. Any sort of sunshine that occurs will
destabilize the atmosphere enough to support convection with 700mb
temperatures around +2C. There may be an isolated report of
marginally severe hail in the strongest storm tomorrow, however the
thermodynamic profile does not really favor hail storms given the
poor mid level lapse rates and rather moist 500-700mb layer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will continue Sunday night as the upper
level system moves over western Kansas and a surface cold front
shifts eastward. The best chance of precipitation will be across
central and south central Kansas with far western Kansas remaining
dry. Skies will be mostly cloudy with southerly winds ahead of the
front and northwest winds behind the front. Precipitation chances
end by sunrise Monday with clearing skies from west to east during
the day Monday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected
Monday through Tuesday night as an upper level ridge builds above
the Plains. Winds will generally be from the northeast on Monday
shifting to the south Monday night through Tuesday night. Highs
Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the 70s. Lows Monday morning
are expected to range from the upper 40s across far western Kansas
to mid 50s across central and south central Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning look to dip into the mid to upper 40s.

The next storm system enters the Western United States on Tuesday,
then shifts eastward into the Northern Rockies on Wednesday. A
moderate upper level jet will be found above western Kansas by
Wednesday afternoon enhancing lift across the area. Westerly winds
will be observed in the mid levels of the atmosphere with increasing
moisture. Southerly winds will be felt at the surface due to a
trough of low pressure located across eastern Colorado. In addition,
a dryline is suggested by the models to develop in the afternoon
with CAPE and shear increasing as the day progresses. These
conditions will bring a chance of thunderstorms ahead of
the dryline from late afternoon into Wednesday night. A few of
these storms could become strong to severe if the models continue
with what they are showing. A cold front then moves through western
Kansas Thursday morning shifting winds to the north. Dry conditions
are then expected during the remainder of the extended period as an
upper level ridge builds above the Plains. Winds shift back to the
south by Saturday as the next storm system entered the western
United States. Highs Wednesday are forecasted to reach into the
lower to mid 80s with lows Thursday morning ranging from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas.
Highs Thursday and Friday look to reach into the lower to mid 70s
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Surface winds will remain fairly strong this afternoon through
about 00Z with the tight pressure gradient in place as a low
continues to form across southeastern Colorado. A frontal zone
extending northeast from the low will be the focus for late
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, however these
showers and storms will likely remain north and west of GCK and
even HYS. We will keep precipitation out of the TAFs this evening,
however more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will
likely affect the terminals on Sunday. VFR is expected tonight
through early Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  75  53  75 /  10  50  50  10
GCK  54  72  51  75 /  20  70  50  10
EHA  51  71  49  75 /  20  60  40  10
LBL  53  73  51  77 /  10  70  50  10
HYS  57  75  56  74 /  20  60  60  10
P28  58  75  57  77 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KICT 192013
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY-MONDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST REMAINING OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS ACROSS RUSSELL AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ON EASTER DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MLCAPE IS PROGGED TO
RISE INTO THE 600-1000 J/KG RANGE WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED REGIME.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AND
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH NICKEL TO PERHAPS QUARTER SIZE HAIL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING   . THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15-18Z ON MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA WITH STABLE POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE LATE
IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING THE UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS LATE WED/WED NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES
BEHIND THE PAC FRONT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

LEE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL MAKE FOR A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT. STRONG MIXING WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 35-40 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING IN SPEEDS SOME.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JMC


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BEGIN TO
RECOVER AND WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OF
EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  75  58  73 /  10  60  60  40
HUTCHINSON      57  75  57  75 /  20  60  60  10
NEWTON          57  74  57  70 /  10  60  60  50
ELDORADO        58  74  58  71 /  10  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  75  59  74 /  10  60  60  30
RUSSELL         57  76  57  72 /  20  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      56  75  55  74 /  20  60  50  10
SALINA          61  78  59  75 /  10  60  60  30
MCPHERSON       58  75  57  73 /  10  60  60  20
COFFEYVILLE     56  77  61  75 /  10  60  70  60
CHANUTE         56  77  60  74 /  10  60  70  60
IOLA            56  76  60  72 /  10  60  70  60
PARSONS-KPPF    56  77  62  74 /  10  60  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 192012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AT 20Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A NORTON TO LEOTI LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 1000-1500
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 20-30KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES QUICKLY DROP OFF
BY 01Z...SO ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE WILL RAPIDLY SHRINK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE WITH NONZERO
MUCAPE.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE AROUND ON SUNDAY...BUT HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATION DUE TO INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...MODELS SHOW CONVERGENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN
THE EASTER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE BUT DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR WILL BE EVEN LOWER...LESS THAN 20KTS. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT. SO EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A MCCOOK TO TRIBUNE
LINE...BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE.
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN AT THIS POINT. QPF
WILL BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 RANGE IN THE EAST...WITH LESS THAN 0.10
IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.

FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS OCCURRED AT BOTH TERMINALS AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WELL SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL MAINLY THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024





000
FXUS63 KDDC 192004
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
304 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The Montana shortwave moves east into Manitoba by this evening. An
associated cold front will push south into the central High Plains
this afternoon, extending from west central into north central Kansas.
Model soundings show some limited instability along with some mid
level capping across much of southwest and central Kansas later this
afternoon. There should be enough convergence along the front for
some scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating with any thunderstorms activity
basically ending across the area before midnight. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could begin to ramp up again later tonight
as a low level jet strengthens and provides some weak moist advection
into south central Kansas.

The temperature forecast for today and tonight looks fairly
reasonable with only some minor adjustments.  We should see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will continue Sunday night as the upper
level system moves over western Kansas and a surface cold front
shifts eastward. The best chance of precipitation will be across
central and south central Kansas with far western Kansas remaining
dry. Skies will be mostly cloudy with southerly winds ahead of the
front and northwest winds behind the front. Precipitation chances
end by sunrise Monday with clearing skies from west to east during
the day Monday. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected
Monday through Tuesday night as an upper level ridge builds above
the Plains. Winds will generally be from the northeast on Monday
shifting to the south Monday night through Tuesday night. Highs
Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the 70s. Lows Monday morning
are expected to range from the upper 40s across far western Kansas
to mid 50s across central and south central Kansas. Lows Tuesday
morning look to dip into the mid to upper 40s.

The next storm system enters the Western United States on Tuesday,
then shifts eastward into the Northern Rockies on Wednesday. A
moderate upper level jet will be found above western Kansas by
Wednesday afternoon enhancing lift across the area. Westerly winds
will be observed in the mid levels of the atmosphere with increasing
moisture. Southerly winds will be felt at the surface due to a
trough of low pressure located across eastern Colorado. In addition,
a dryline is suggested by the models to develop in the afternoon
with CAPE and shear increasing as the day progresses. These
conditions will bring a chance of thunderstorms ahead of
the dryline from late afternoon into Wednesday night. A few of
these storms could become strong to severe if the models continue
with what they are showing. A cold front then moves through western
Kansas Thursday morning shifting winds to the north. Dry conditions
are then expected during the remainder of the extended period as an
upper level ridge builds above the Plains. Winds shift back to the
south by Saturday as the next storm system entered the western
United States. Highs Wednesday are forecasted to reach into the
lower to mid 80s with lows Thursday morning ranging from the mid 40s
across west central Kansas to upper 50s across south central Kansas.
Highs Thursday and Friday look to reach into the lower to mid 70s
with lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Surface winds will remain fairly strong this afternoon through
about 00Z with the tight pressure gradient in place as a low
continues to form across southeastern Colorado. A frontal zone
extending northeast from the low will be the focus for late
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, however these
showers and storms will likely remain north and west of GCK and
even HYS. We will keep precipitation out of the TAFs this evening,
however more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will
likely affect the terminals on Sunday. VFR is expected tonight
through early Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  75  53  75 /  10  60  50  10
GCK  54  72  51  75 /  20  60  50  10
EHA  51  71  49  75 /  30  50  40  10
LBL  53  73  51  77 /  10  50  50  10
HYS  57  75  56  74 /  40  70  60  10
P28  58  75  57  77 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KICT 191745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

TODAY:
WINDY & WARMER WEATHER REMAINS SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT HAVE
CHECKED SWING AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PREVENT MAXIMUM MIXING
POTENTIAL FROM BEING REALIZED.

TONIGHT-MONDAY:
THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW ARDUOUS PROGRESS AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL "KICKER" IS LACKING. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO ENCROACH UPON CENTRAL KS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
MAY EVEN STALL IN A NE-SW MANNER FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
RUSSELL...BARTON & LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY & SUNDAY
NIGHT IS GETTING A BIT CHALLENGING AS NEARLY ALL FACETS OF FORECAST NO
DOUBT HINGE ON E/SE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF & ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE
SLOW E/SE TRANSLATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DICTATES LOWERING POPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO SLIGHT CHANCES. IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROF MAY MAKE SUFFICIENT EASTWARD PROGRESS TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
EAST ACROSS MOST OF KS SUNDAY NIGHT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF...THOUGH WEAK...MAY INDUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROF BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A MUCH STRONGER
MID-UPPER TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD INDUCE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO SHARPEN.
AS SUCH ALL TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD TUE & TUE NIGHT. AS THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE VENTURES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHERLY
LOWER-DECK FLOW WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE MARKEDLY TO INJECT RICH MOISTURE
ACROSS KS. WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SURGING SE ACROSS KS WED NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE WED & WED NIGHT.
SINCE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS & ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING HAVE KEPT CHANCES CONSERVATIVE...FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE WORK-WEEK SHOULD BE NICE AS WEAK RIDGING SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

LEE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL MAKE FOR A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT. STRONG MIXING WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 35-40 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING IN SPEEDS SOME.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THIS AREA. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 35% ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 00
UTC/20TH THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY WITH LESSER
WIND. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER CONFINED TO THE HIGH
CATEGORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  57  76  58 /   0  10  50  60
HUTCHINSON      80  57  75  56 /   0  10  60  60
NEWTON          78  57  74  55 /   0  10  50  60
ELDORADO        77  58  75  56 /   0  10  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  58  76  56 /   0  10  40  60
RUSSELL         81  57  74  56 /  10  30  60  50
GREAT BEND      79  56  73  54 /   0  20  60  50
SALINA          82  61  77  55 /   0  10  60  60
MCPHERSON       80  58  75  55 /   0  10  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  56  77  59 /   0   0  20  60
CHANUTE         76  56  76  58 /   0   0  20  60
IOLA            76  56  76  58 /   0   0  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    77  56  76  60 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KDDC 191733
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1233 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed a split upper level flow pattern
over North America. The strongest westerly flow aloft extended from
the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes and New England.
Strong shortwaves in the flow were over Montana and the eastern
Great Lakes. Across the southern tier of states, closed lows were
located over southern California and in the Deep South. A mid level
ridge axis extended from Minnesota into southern Texas. At the
surface, a high pressure ridge extended from the Great Lakes into
eastern Texas. This ridge has kept rich Gulf moisture at bay over
the Gulf Coast with only modest moisture return into the central
High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The Montana shortwave moves east into Manitoba by this evening. An
associated cold front will push south into the central High Plains
this afternoon, extending from west central into north central Kansas.
Model soundings show some limited instability along with some mid
level capping across much of southwest and central Kansas later this
afternoon. There should be enough convergence along the front for
some scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating with any thunderstorms activity
basically ending across the area before midnight. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could begin to ramp up again later tonight
as a low level jet strengthens and provides some weak moist advection
into south central Kansas.

The temperature forecast for today and tonight looks fairly
reasonable with only some minor adjustments.  We should see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A couple of precipitation episodes are possible during the medium
range forecast period aided by a progressive shortwave pattern in
the westerlies. The first will be a vertically stacked 500 mb
trough, with surface reflection low moving through western Kansas on
Sunday. The GFS, ECMWF and SREF solutions handle the precipitation
quite differently but what is likely is at least numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms in this weak isentropic lift and weak to
moderate MUCAPE environment. A Northern High Plains surface high
will bring breezy to possibly windy conditions on Monday as the wave
deamplifies into the southern Mississippi valley and general
subsidence develops. Models show another wave moving through the
northern Rockies on Tuesday night into Wednesday as easterly
surface winds turn southerly following lee surface pressure falls. A
sharp dryline will develop across western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon, supported by both ECMWF and GFS, but with highly
different convective solutions at this time. In either case, severe
storms could be supported although the GFS is not as aggressive in
it`s CAPE and precipitation field.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Surface winds will remain fairly strong this afternoon through
about 00Z with the tight pressure gradient in place as a low
continues to form across southeastern Colorado. A frontal zone
extending northeast from the low will be the focus for late
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, however these
showers and storms will likely remain north and west of GCK and
even HYS. We will keep precipitation out of the TAFs this evening,
however more widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will
likely affect the terminals on Sunday. VFR is expected tonight
through early Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  56  75  52 /  10  10  60  20
GCK  82  54  71  50 /  20  20  60  20
EHA  79  51  67  48 /  20  30  50  10
LBL  81  53  73  51 /  10  10  50  20
HYS  82  57  76  57 /  20  40  70  20
P28  81  58  78  57 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KGLD 191727
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1127 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AT 16Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A MCCOOK TO GOODLAND LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 800-1200
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 15-25KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.

VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HOW
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WORK OUT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.

BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS MODELS
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
YOU BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.

FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL
PASSAGE HAS OCCURRED AT BOTH TERMINALS AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WELL SOUTH OF
BOTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
VERY LIMITED NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BRIEFLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL MAINLY THIS
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AGAIN BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE SOUTH SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS POINT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...99





000
FXUS63 KTOP 191723
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
of 18 KTS to 23 KTS with gusts of 26 KTS to 34 KTS will continue
through the afternoon hours. By sunset winds should diminish below
14 KTS. High and mid level clouds will increase through the night
into Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 191723
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
of 18 KTS to 23 KTS with gusts of 26 KTS to 34 KTS will continue
through the afternoon hours. By sunset winds should diminish below
14 KTS. High and mid level clouds will increase through the night
into Sunday morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KGLD 191632
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1032 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

AT 16Z...COLD FRONT LIES NEAR A MCCOOK TO GOODLAND LINE WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS RUNS
PLACE THE FRONT NEAR A NORTON TO CHEYENNE WELLS LINE AT PEAK
HEATING. INSTABILITY AXIS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE 800-1200
J/KG WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 15-25KTS IN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THOSE PARAMETERS...THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS RATHER LOW. WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MOST
IF NOT ALL STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE THE
MOST QPF...GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH UP TO A HALF
AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER STORMS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.

VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HOW
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WORK OUT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.

BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS MODELS
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
YOU BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.

FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TRICKY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WIND AND THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. MODELS
ARE HAVING A HARD HANDLING THE SPEED AND POSITION OF INCOMING
FRONT. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER WHERE
THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO TRENDED THE TAFS IN THAT
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...99





000
FXUS63 KDDC 191239
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
739 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed a split upper level flow pattern
over North America. The strongest westerly flow aloft extended from
the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes and New England.
Strong shortwaves in the flow were over Montana and the eastern
Great Lakes. Across the southern tier of states, closed lows were
located over southern California and in the Deep South. A mid level
ridge axis extended from Minnesota into southern Texas. At the
surface, a high pressure ridge extended from the Great Lakes into
eastern Texas. This ridge has kept rich Gulf moisture at bay over
the Gulf Coast with only modest moisture return into the central
High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The Montana shortwave moves east into Manitoba by this evening. An
associated cold front will push south into the central High Plains
this afternoon, extending from west central into north central Kansas.
Model soundings show some limited instability along with some mid
level capping across much of southwest and central Kansas later this
afternoon. There should be enough convergence along the front for
some scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating with any thunderstorms activity
basically ending across the area before midnight. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could begin to ramp up again later tonight
as a low level jet strengthens and provides some weak moist advection
into south central Kansas.

The temperature forecast for today and tonight looks fairly
reasonable with only some minor adjustments.  We should see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A couple of precipitation episodes are possible during the medium
range forecast period aided by a progressive shortwave pattern in
the westerlies. The first will be a vertically stacked 500 mb
trough, with surface reflection low moving through western Kansas on
Sunday. The GFS, ECMWF and SREF solutions handle the precipitation
quite differently but what is likely is at least numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms in this weak isentropic lift and weak to
moderate MUCAPE environment. A Northern High Plains surface high
will bring breezy to possibly windy conditions on Monday as the wave
deamplifies into the southern Mississippi valley and general
subsidence develops. Models show another wave moving through the
northern Rockies on Tuesday night into Wednesday as easterly
surface winds turn southerly following lee surface pressure falls. A
sharp dryline will develop across western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon, supported by both ECMWF and GFS, but with highly
different convective solutions at this time. In either case, severe
storms could be supported although the GFS is not as aggressive in
it`s CAPE and precipitation field.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 738 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR flight category is expected though at least early afternoon at
all sites, and probably through the TAF period. Eastern Colorado low
pressure will promote breezy southerly winds around 20 to 25 knots
sustained today with mixing allowing gusts into the upper  30s (kts).
It is plausible for a shower or thunderstorm to affect the GCK or
HYS terminal very late this afternoon or evening, but not high
enough a probability to include in the terminal grouping.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  56  75  52 /  10  10  60  20
GCK  82  54  71  50 /  20  20  60  20
EHA  79  51  67  48 /  20  30  50  10
LBL  81  53  73  51 /  10  10  50  20
HYS  82  57  76  57 /  20  40  70  20
P28  81  58  78  57 /  10  20  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KGLD 191136
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.

VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HOW
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WORK OUT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.

BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS MODELS
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
YOU BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.

FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TRICKY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WIND AND THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. MODELS
ARE HAVING A HARD HANDLING THE SPEED AND POSITION OF INCOMING
FRONT. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER WHERE
THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO TRENDED THE TAFS IN THAT
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE VFR CODNTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...99







000
FXUS63 KICT 191130
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

TODAY:
WINDY & WARMER WEATHER REMAINS SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT HAVE
CHECKED SWING AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PREVENT MAXIMUM MIXING
POTENTIAL FROM BEING REALIZED.

TONIGHT-MONDAY:
THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW ARDUOUS PROGRESS AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL "KICKER" IS LACKING. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO ENCROACH UPON CENTRAL KS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
MAY EVEN STALL IN A NE-SW MANNER FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
RUSSELL...BARTON & LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY & SUNDAY
NIGHT IS GETTING A BIT CHALLENGING AS NEARLY ALL FACETS OF FORECAST NO
DOUBT HINGE ON E/SE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF & ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE
SLOW E/SE TRANSLATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DICTATES LOWERING POPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO SLIGHT CHANCES. IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROF MAY MAKE SUFFICIENT EASTWARD PROGRESS TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
EAST ACROSS MOST OF KS SUNDAY NIGHT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF...THOUGH WEAK...MAY INDUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROF BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A MUCH STRONGER
MID-UPPER TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD INDUCE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO SHARPEN.
AS SUCH ALL TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD TUE & TUE NIGHT. AS THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE VENTURES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHERLY
LOWER-DECK FLOW WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE MARKEDLY TO INJECT RICH MOISTURE
ACROSS KS. WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SURGING SE ACROSS KS WED NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE WED & WED NIGHT.
SINCE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS & ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING HAVE KEPT CHANCES CONSERVATIVE...FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE WORK-WEEK SHOULD BE NICE AS WEAK RIDGING SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TODAY.

SOUTH WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY INCREASING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH ALL BUT KCNU EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETUP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST WEST OF KRSL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING WARMER & DRIER AIR OVER KS
WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH ON EASTER SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  56  76  58 /   0   0  50  60
HUTCHINSON      80  56  75  56 /   0  10  60  60
NEWTON          78  56  74  55 /   0   0  50  60
ELDORADO        77  56  75  56 /   0   0  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  56  76  56 /   0   0  40  60
RUSSELL         81  58  74  56 /  10  30  60  50
GREAT BEND      79  56  73  54 /   0  20  60  50
SALINA          82  58  77  55 /   0  10  60  60
MCPHERSON       80  57  75  55 /   0  10  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  54  77  59 /   0   0  20  60
CHANUTE         76  55  76  58 /   0   0  20  60
IOLA            76  55  76  58 /   0   0  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    77  55  76  60 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 191114
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as south winds increase above 10 kts
sustained aft 14Z. Sustained speeds between 16 and 20 kts with
gusts in upwards of 27 kts are seen during the afternoon period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KGLD 191040 CCA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.

VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HOW
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WORK OUT.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.

BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS MODELS
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE DUE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
YOU BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT
THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.

FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 15Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99








000
FXUS63 KGLD 190941
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC.
THIS TRANSLATES TO A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A FASTER
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SLOWER/MORE CUTOFF SOUTHERN STREAM. STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM NOW ALONG THE UNITED STATES/CANADIAN BORDER
IS PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. CLOSED OFF LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS NOT DOING THE GREATEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
APPEAR TO BE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF JUST BEHIND THEM. AT MID
LEVELS...ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THE CANADIAN IS DOING THE
BEST WITH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW. FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
THE MODELS TENDED TO NOT HAVE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH . HERE THE CANADIAN
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY
HARD TIME WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE RUC AND NAM
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR FAST WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE
FRONT. HOWEVER THE OTHER OUTPUT TENDED TO BE TOO SLOW.

VERY COMPLICATED SITUATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN THE MODEL OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND TO SOME DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SPEED AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH AFFECTS EVERYTHING ABOUT THE FORECAST.
FASTER MODELS HAVE THE FRONT THROUGH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME BRING IT IN FASTER AND THEN SLOW IT/HANG IT UP.
OTHERS STILL ONLY BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF BY LATE
IN THE DAY. TENDED TO GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD.

BLENDING ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS TOGETHER TODAY WOULD SAY THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF THINGS CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY ARE THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND HAVING IT MORE CLOSED BY THE TIME IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. CONSIDERING THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING CAPPED
SUPPORTS THAT. SO REDUCED CHANCES THE CHANCES FOR THE DAY. DESPITE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FRONTAL POSITION...MODELS DO SHOW IT COMING A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH PLUS LOOK TO HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO DID REDUCE MAXES A LITTLE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DO BRING IN
MUCH BETTER LIFT BUT THEY DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT IT. TO
COMPLICATE MATTERS IT LOOKS LIKE A FEW OF THE MODELS MAY BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. DUE TO THE SLOWER TRENDS DUE
LOOK TO HOLD BACK THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED KEPT THE POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. YESTERDAY
CONCERN WAS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE A PROBLEM. THE
POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE TO THE HIGH PWATS THAT ARE WAY ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER...DUE TO MODEL DIFFICULTIES HAVING A HARD
SPECIFYING ANY SPECIFIC AREA OR EVEN MENTION IT AT ALL.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE A LITTLE CLOSER FOR THIS PERIOD
THAN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM IS CLOSED OFF AND NEAR
OR OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING. FRONT HAS
PULLED BACK FURTHER WEST TO NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER...IF
BELIEVE THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION. AS YESTERDAY THE GREATEST THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS WHERE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL BE A THREAT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND
DOWN AND END DURING THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON
HOW EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE. TENDED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOUT THE SAME IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE PUSH IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES BUT FEEL THAT THE MODELS
MAY BE HAVING THE TEMPERATURES TOO COOL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.

FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 15Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99





000
FXUS63 KDDC 190848
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The 00z upper air analysis showed a split upper level flow pattern
over North America. The strongest westerly flow aloft extended from
the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes and New England.
Strong shortwaves in the flow were over Montana and the eastern
Great Lakes. Across the southern tier of states, closed lows were
located over southern California and in the Deep South. A mid level
ridge axis extended from Minnesota into southern Texas. At the
surface, a high pressure ridge extended from the Great Lakes into
eastern Texas. This ridge has kept rich Gulf moisture at bay over
the Gulf Coast with only modest moisture return into the central
High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The Montana shortwave moves east into Manitoba by this evening. An
associated cold front will push south into the central High Plains
this afternoon, extending from west central into north central Kansas.
Model soundings show some limited instability along with some mid
level capping across much of southwest and central Kansas later this
afternoon. There should be enough convergence along the front for
some scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
Precipitation chances should diminish through the evening hours with
the loss of daytime heating with any thunderstorms activity
basically ending across the area before midnight. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms could begin to ramp up again later tonight
as a low level jet strengthens and provides some weak moist advection
into south central Kansas.

The temperature forecast for today and tonight looks fairly
reasonable with only some minor adjustments.  We should see high
temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A couple of precipitation episodes are possible during the medium
range forecast period aided by a progressive shortwave pattern in
the westerlies. The first will be a vertically stacked 500 mb
trough, with surface reflection low moving through western Kansas on
Sunday. The GFS, ECMWF and SREF solutions handle the precipitation
quite differently but what is likely is at least numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms in this weak isentropic lift and weak to
moderate MUCAPE environment. A Northern High Plains surface high
will bring breezy to possibly windy conditions on Monday as the wave
deamplifies into the southern Mississippi valley and general
subsidence develops. Models show another wave moving through the
northern Rockies on Tuesday night into Wednesday as easterly
surface winds turn southerly following lee surface pressure falls. A
sharp dryline will develop across western Kansas Wednesday
afternoon, supported by both ECMWF and GFS, but with highly
different convective solutions at this time. In either case, severe
storms could be supported although the GFS is not as aggressive in
it`s CAPE and precipitation field.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Southerly winds will continue around 15 to 20 knots through much
of the early morning hours at the TAF sites. Winds will ramp up
from the south southwest again during the day today with gusts of
around 30-35 knots possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop over west central into north central Kansas later in
the afternoon. There is some potential for these to impact Garden
City and Hays late this afternoon and evening but confidence on
timing and coverage is low enough to preclude adding them to the
TAFs at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  56  74  50 /  10  10  40  40
GCK  80  54  71  49 /  20  20  30  30
EHA  79  51  75  50 /  20  30  20  20
LBL  79  53  77  49 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  81  57  74  53 /  20  40  60  60
P28  81  58  77  55 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gerard
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard







000
FXUS63 KTOP 190833
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Could see minor
visibility restrictions for the next several hours in smoke
mainly at KMHK but do not believe it will dominate. Otherwise
mainly wind concerns south winds increasing in daytime mixing.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 190833
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Early this morning, water vapor imagery shows the northern stream
upper trough translating eastward over southern Saskatchewan while
the southern stream trough was rotating into Arizona. Upper level
moisture is increasing eastward into the western plains ahead of
ridging across northeast Kansas. At the surface, temperatures were
generally mild this morning in the upper 40s to low 50s. Southerly
winds are beginning to increase across central and northeast Kansas
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the shortwave trough
centered over eastern Colorado.

Another windy and warmer afternoon is expected across northeast
Kansas as the approaching trough returns strong southerly flow. By mid
morning, speeds between 15 to 25 MPH with gusts from 30 to 35 mph
are likely through the afternoon. Decent warm air advecting h85
temps between 9 and 12C into the area will raise highs this
afternoon into the upper 70s and low 80s. The exiting northern
stream trough will usher a cold front south, progged to setup from
western Kansas through south central Nebraska by late afternoon.
Despite moisture advecting northward ahead of the boundary, mixing
of the boundary layer will minimize RH values into the low and mid
30s in late afternoon. Therefore rangeland fire danger remains in
the high category.

Focus turns to convection developing just to the north and west of
the CWA late this afternoon or early evening. The NAM, SREF, and GFS
are fairly consistent in maintaining the capping inversion over
north central Kansas through 00Z, prohibiting surface based
development. However, the GFS appears a bit weaker than the NAM
suggesting an updraft may overcome the inversion just to the west of
Cloud and Republic counties. Decided to insert slight chances for
development from 4 PM to 7 PM. Best chances for thunderstorm
development will focus along and ahead of the cold front in south
central Nebraska/central KS where strong surface convergence
suggests multiple updrafts to form and move into north central
Kansas after 00Z. Elevated cape values average from 300 to 800 J/KG
while 0-6 KM bulk shear is marginal (25-30 kts). A few organized
updrafts are possible, but hazards would mainly consist of small to
marginally severe hail. Forecast soundings at CNK note very steep
sfc lapse rates up to 800 MB with a well mixed boundary layer. The
inverted V signature is suggestive of a downburst or localized
strong wind potential with any developing storm from the afternoon
through early evening for locations near and in Cloud to Republic
and Washington.

Should expect any thunderstorm activity to progress eastward
overnight tonight as the h85 jet, and approaching upper trough
maintain updraft development. Placed chances for precip mainly north
of Interstate 70, highest along and north of highway 36. Elevated
instability gradually wanes, reducing severe weather potential after
midnight. Most areas along and south of Interstate 70 should remain
dry through at least Sunday morning. Increasing insulation keeps
lows mild in the mid and upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models continue to show relatively little inhibition to convection
Sunday through Monday as the southern stream wave moves over the
region. The cooler mid level temps associated with the wave are
expected to keep lapse rates steep enough for showers and
thunderstorms to develop with the heating of the day by Sunday
afternoon. Then weak forcing persisting through the night and into
Monday along with a frontal boundary moving through the area is
likely to keep precipitation going. Deep layer shear remains
unimpressive with 0-6 KM shear up to 20KT, so concerns for severe
thunderstorms remains low. However PWs are forecast to increase to
near 1.5 inches which is about two standard deviations above
normal for late April. So there could be some locally heavy rainfall
with some of the stronger storms. It still looks like there could
be some modest insolation early Sunday as southerly winds continue
to advect warmer air north. With this in mind have kept highs in
the mid and upper 70s. Monday morning lows should also be mild due
to southerly winds and overcast skies limiting radiational
cooling. But through the day Monday winds are expected to shift to
the north with some cold air advection. Combined with mostly
cloudy skies and the potential for precip think highs should be
cooler with readings in the lower 70s.

Models continue to show a signal for elevated storms late Tuesday
night and into Wednesday with the low level jet advecting mid
level moisture back north. The better theta-e advection and
saturation on the isentropic surfaces appears to be pretty high
based around the 700MB level, but forecast soundings hint at some
weak elevated instability. Therefore it is hard to rule out the
chances and with the models persistent in this idea, and have kept
some small pops in the forecast.

Better chances for thunderstorms should be Wednesday night and
Thursday as a longer wave length trough approaches from the west.
There remains some differences in timing as well as evolution of
the wave between the models, causing lower confidence in the
forecast. However the models seem to be pointing towards
thunderstorm development along a dryline or Pacific cold front by
Wednesday evening and bringing a linear convective system across
the forecast area. Moisture should not be a problem due to a lack
of strong ridging along the gulf coast keeping the gulf opened.
Because of this will continue with chance POPs Wednesday night
into Thursday. Perhaps the least confident part of the forecast is
timing the end to precip with ECMWF showing the upper wave to the
northeast of the forecast area by Thursday evening. Have trended
Thursday night POPs down and will continue to refine the forecast
with later runs.

Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day of the week as
surface winds from the south strengthen and 850 temps warm to
near 16C over central KS. Then the forecast trends temps cooler
for Thursday and Friday expecting the Pacific cold front to move
through. With the northern and southern streams phasing together
by the end of the week with cyclogenesis progged to occur over the
upper Midwest, there is a greater chance for some modified
Canadian air to move south through the plains by Friday. Expecting
some modest cold air advection, have kept highs for Friday
generally in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Could see minor
visibility restrictions for the next several hours in smoke
mainly at KMHK but do not believe it will dominate. Otherwise
mainly wind concerns south winds increasing in daytime mixing.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KICT 190830
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

TODAY:
WINDY & WARMER WEATHER REMAINS SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT HAVE
CHECKED SWING AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PREVENT MAXIMUM MIXING
POTENTIAL FROM BEING REALIZED.

TONIGHT-MONDAY:
THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW ARDUOUS PROGRESS AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL "KICKER" IS LACKING. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO ENCROACH UPON CENTRAL KS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
MAY EVEN STALL IN A NE-SW MANNER FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
RUSSELL...BARTON & LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY & SUNDAY
NIGHT IS GETTING A BIT CHALLENGING AS NEARLY ALL FACETS OF FORECAST NO
DOUBT HINGE ON E/SE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF & ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE
SLOW E/SE TRANSLATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DICTATES LOWERING POPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO SLIGHT CHANCES. IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROF MAY MAKE SUFFICIENT EASTWARD PROGRESS TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
EAST ACROSS MOST OF KS SUNDAY NIGHT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF...THOUGH WEAK...MAY INDUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROF BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A MUCH STRONGER
MID-UPPER TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD INDUCE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO SHARPEN.
AS SUCH ALL TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD TUE & TUE NIGHT. AS THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE VENTURES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHERLY
LOWER-DECK FLOW WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE MARKEDLY TO INJECT RICH MOISTURE
ACROSS KS. WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SURGING SE ACROSS KS WED NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE WED & WED NIGHT.
SINCE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS & ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING HAVE KEPT CHANCES CONSERVATIVE...FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE WORK-WEEK SHOULD BE NICE AS WEAK RIDGING SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24HRS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM IN OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

JAKUB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING WARMER & DRIER AIR OVER KS
WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH ON EASTER SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  56  76  58 /   0   0  50  60
HUTCHINSON      80  56  75  56 /   0  10  60  60
NEWTON          78  56  74  55 /   0   0  50  60
ELDORADO        77  56  75  56 /   0   0  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  56  76  56 /   0   0  40  60
RUSSELL         81  58  74  56 /  10  30  60  50
GREAT BEND      79  56  73  54 /   0  20  60  50
SALINA          82  58  77  55 /   0  10  60  60
MCPHERSON       80  57  75  55 /   0  10  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  54  77  59 /   0   0  30  60
CHANUTE         76  55  76  58 /   0   0  30  60
IOLA            76  55  76  58 /   0   0  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    77  55  76  60 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 190820
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MODERATE 850 MB FLOW
WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS MIXED TONIGHT...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PROVIDE LIFT BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONT IS DECENT...AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP
AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES...DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE WITH FAVORABLE CIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL
CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SINCE CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH REGION IS AROUND 300 TO 400 J/KG. NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANY HAIL OVER 1 INCH SINCE BULK SHEAR IS TOWARDS THE
LOWER END AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH MAY NOT BE THE GREATEST FOR LARGE
HAIL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING AT 15Z AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INCREASING TO 40% TO 50% AFTER 18Z WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS.
EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.00
INCH TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
BULK OF THAT WILL BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA SINCE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SINCE SOME INSTABILITY...AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE...WILL LINGER AND BULK SHEAR
IMPROVES TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY DRYLINE EDGES EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM OUT DURING THE DAY BUT KEPT
THEM IN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S EAST TO NEAR 80 WEST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE AT THE SFC WINDY/VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING PART/MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND CERTAINLY (AT THIS POINT)
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
WHERE GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
THINKING. INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT MOVES IN AND ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE BEFORE MIDNIGHT PERIOD...CURRENTLY
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WEST...LOW 40S TO AROUND
50 EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
WHILE SFC FEATURES SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT NEAR 70 BY HILL CITY. LOWS MID TO UPPER
30S WEST...LOW 40S EAST.

FRIDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WE AWAIT SOME UPPER
RIDGING THAT MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S EXCEPT AROUND 70 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. LOWS UPPER 30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 15Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND NOON
MDT (1 PM CDT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 7 PM MDT (8 PM CDT)
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER. IN THIS AREA RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARD 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER/ALW
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99







000
FXUS63 KDDC 190553
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50
degrees.

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The weekend:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across the northern zones Saturday night near a sfc front.
Severe weather is not expected due to meager CAPE and particularly
very weak bulk shear. A better chance at more widespread showers
and thunderstorms is expected Sunday as a weak upper level trough
moves across the region. Made spatio-temporal adjustments of pops
with a bias towards the ECMWF as this model seems to be less
problematic than the GFS (overdoing boundary layer moisture).
Again, overall instability and particularly shear are on the weak
side, so the main threat will be lightning.

Next week:

There may be isolated convection on the edge of the EML plume Tuesday
night for the northern zones, but confidence is very low as the GFS is
the only model showing this (versus EC/GEM). Will cap pops at 15 percent
and use isolated coverage since the overall convective signal is marginal
at best.

Attention then turns to Wednesday. The GFS is waffling back and forth,
whereas the EC seems to be a bit quasi-stable with synoptic/mesoscale
features. Have a concern for supercells in the eastern zones (generally
along and east of Highway 183). Warm 700-hPa temperatures will limit
overall coverage, but think that an isolated storm developing along
the dryline is not out of the question. CAPE from the EC is lower than
compared to yesterday (model is probably catching on to the front that
is currently across the Gulf basin and resultant impact in the future
with with moisture advection). Still, the model shows upper 50sF to
around 60F dewpoints advecting northward with 1500 J/kg of cape. Bulk
shear of 40-50 kt would support the notion of more organized convection.
Local research using the GFS (since EC lacks some parameters) suggests
a large hail threat (hen egg/tennis ball). Wouldn`t total rule out an
isolated tornado, however, LCL`s look fairly high given expected lower
dewpoints in the boundary layer. Anyhow, something to watch as we
get out of the global model spectrum and come into the mesoscale
model spectrum by that time. Red flag conditions look likely in
the wake of dryline with downslope winds and mixing. Some 90sF
look possible Wednesday in the western zones.

Beyond that, the forecast looks dry with warm/Spring-like
temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Southerly winds will continue around 15 to 20 knots through much
of the early morning hours at the TAF sites. Winds will ramp up
from the south southwest again during the day today with gusts of
around 30-35 knots possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop over west central into north central Kansas later in
the afternoon. There is some potential for these to impact Garden
City and Hays late this afternoon and evening but confidence on
timing and coverage is low enough to preclude adding them to the
TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  74  50  75 /  10  40  40   0
GCK  53  71  49  74 /  20  30  30  10
EHA  50  75  50  76 /  40  20  20  10
LBL  52  77  49  78 /  10  20  20  10
HYS  56  74  53  73 /  60  60  60   0
P28  57  77  55  76 /  50  60  60  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard







000
FXUS63 KGLD 190505
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1105 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MODERATE 850 MB FLOW
WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS MIXED TONIGHT...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PROVIDE LIFT BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONT IS DECENT...AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP
AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES...DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE WITH FAVORABLE CIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL
CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SINCE CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH REGION IS AROUND 300 TO 400 J/KG. NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANY HAIL OVER 1 INCH SINCE BULK SHEAR IS TOWARDS THE
LOWER END AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH MAY NOT BE THE GREATEST FOR LARGE
HAIL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING AT 15Z AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INCREASING TO 40% TO 50% AFTER 18Z WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS.
EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.00
INCH TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
BULK OF THAT WILL BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA SINCE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SINCE SOME INSTABILITY...AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE...WILL LINGER AND BULK SHEAR
IMPROVES TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH OVERSPREADS PLAINS WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES FORECAST
OVER OUR CWA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COUPLED WITH GOOD FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...EXPECTING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
FRONTAL ZONE. STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO DECREASE AS FRONT STALLS IN
THE SE...WITH 0-6KM WINDS DROPPING TO 15KT OR LESS IMMEDIATELY
ALONG FRONT. THIS COINCIDES WITH AREA OF CWA WHERE MODEL QPF
FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD/BASIN-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 0.5 THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THUNDERSTORM TRAINING. LCLS CONTINUE
TO BE HIGH THROUGH EVENT...FAVORING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HAIL/WIND THREAT IF WE DO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THERE MAY BE
A LULL IN COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM SHOULD
THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION EAST AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER REGION AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND TROUGH AXIS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS PLAINS WITH
NORTHERN JET STREAM WELL NORTH OVER CANADA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WARMING TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO A
DRY LINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY THEN NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WOULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A MUCH
MORE DEFINED DRY LINE AND THIS COULD PUSH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FURTHER WEST...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THESE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN PLACE. THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW DOES FOLLOW SIMILAR PATHS OF PAST
SPRINGTIME WIND/RFW EVENTS...AND WE COULD SEE ADVISORY WINDS AND
VERY LOW RH DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR WEST WHERE MIXED LAYER
TD VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WOULD SUPPORT RH 10-15 PERCENT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE PERIODS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE BACK OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND NW FLOW
WE SHOULD SEE LESS OF A RESPONSE IN TEMPS ALOFT...SO AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 15Z
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER 03Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER/ALW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KTOP 190449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Could see minor
visibility restrictions for the next several hours in smoke
mainly at KMHK but do not believe it will dominate. Otherwise
mainly wind concerns south winds increasing in daytime mixing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 190449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions should continue to dominate. Could see minor
visibility restrictions for the next several hours in smoke
mainly at KMHK but do not believe it will dominate. Otherwise
mainly wind concerns south winds increasing in daytime mixing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65





000
FXUS63 KICT 190425
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1125 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES.
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRENDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY AS DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST...HIGHS ON
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUE-WED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. A DRYLINE OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/H10-H85
MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM.
CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THU.

THU-FRI...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG A PAC FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE PAC FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S/LOWS IN THE 40S-50S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

STILL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24HRS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS AND REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...MEANWHILE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM IN OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AND BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL CLIMB INTO THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INDEX WILL RETURN TO THE VERY HIGH AND EXTREME CATEGORIES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  80  56  76 /   0  10  30  50
HUTCHINSON      51  81  55  76 /   0  10  30  60
NEWTON          51  79  55  75 /   0  10  20  60
ELDORADO        50  78  56  75 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  78  56  77 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         53  82  56  76 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      52  80  55  75 /   0  10  40  60
SALINA          52  82  58  77 /   0  10  20  60
MCPHERSON       51  80  56  76 /   0  10  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     48  76  55  77 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         48  76  55  76 /   0  10  10  40
IOLA            48  76  55  76 /   0  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    48  76  56  77 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 182355
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
555 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MODERATE 850 MB FLOW
WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS MIXED TONIGHT...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PROVIDE LIFT BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONT IS DECENT...AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP
AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES...DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE WITH FAVORABLE CIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL
CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SINCE CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH REGION IS AROUND 300 TO 400 J/KG. NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANY HAIL OVER 1 INCH SINCE BULK SHEAR IS TOWARDS THE
LOWER END AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH MAY NOT BE THE GREATEST FOR LARGE
HAIL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING AT 15Z AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INCREASING TO 40% TO 50% AFTER 18Z WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS.
EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.00
INCH TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
BULK OF THAT WILL BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA SINCE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SINCE SOME INSTABILITY...AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE...WILL LINGER AND BULK SHEAR
IMPROVES TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH OVERSPREADS PLAINS WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES FORECAST
OVER OUR CWA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COUPLED WITH GOOD FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...EXPECTING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
FRONTAL ZONE. STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO DECREASE AS FRONT STALLS IN
THE SE...WITH 0-6KM WINDS DROPPING TO 15KT OR LESS IMMEDIATELY
ALONG FRONT. THIS COINCIDES WITH AREA OF CWA WHERE MODEL QPF
FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD/BASIN-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 0.5 THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THUNDERSTORM TRAINING. LCLS CONTINUE
TO BE HIGH THROUGH EVENT...FAVORING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HAIL/WIND THREAT IF WE DO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THERE MAY BE
A LULL IN COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM SHOULD
THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION EAST AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER REGION AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND TROUGH AXIS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS PLAINS WITH
NORTHERN JET STREAM WELL NORTH OVER CANADA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WARMING TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO A
DRY LINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY THEN NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WOULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A MUCH
MORE DEFINED DRY LINE AND THIS COULD PUSH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FURTHER WEST...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THESE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN PLACE. THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW DOES FOLLOW SIMILAR PATHS OF PAST
SPRINGTIME WIND/RFW EVENTS...AND WE COULD SEE ADVISORY WINDS AND
VERY LOW RH DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR WEST WHERE MIXED LAYER
TD VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WOULD SUPPORT RH 10-15 PERCENT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE PERIODS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE BACK OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND NW FLOW
WE SHOULD SEE LESS OF A RESPONSE IN TEMPS ALOFT...SO AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND
GLD. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND TURING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND 20Z
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 21Z-24Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER/ALW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART







000
FXUS63 KICT 182340
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES.
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRENDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY AS DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST...HIGHS ON
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUE-WED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. A DRYLINE OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/H10-H85
MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM.
CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THU.

THU-FRI...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG A PAC FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE PAC FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S/LOWS IN THE 40S-50S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE NEXT 24HRS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FOR MID-MORNING AND REMAINING
STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL CLIMB INTO THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INDEX WILL RETURN TO THE VERY HIGH AND EXTREME CATEGORIES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  80  56  76 /   0  10  30  50
HUTCHINSON      51  81  55  76 /   0  10  30  60
NEWTON          51  79  55  75 /   0  10  20  60
ELDORADO        50  78  56  75 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  78  56  77 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         53  82  56  76 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      52  80  55  75 /   0  10  40  60
SALINA          52  82  58  77 /   0  10  20  60
MCPHERSON       51  80  56  76 /   0  10  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     48  76  55  77 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         48  76  55  76 /   0  10  10  40
IOLA            48  76  55  76 /   0  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    48  76  56  77 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 182317
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions anticipated. SE winds back off a bit to start but
should be enough mixing and RH low enough to keep FU and BR in
check. Gusty winds on track to return in the 14-15Z window.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 182317
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions anticipated. SE winds back off a bit to start but
should be enough mixing and RH low enough to keep FU and BR in
check. Gusty winds on track to return in the 14-15Z window.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KDDC 182314
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
614 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50
degrees.

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The weekend:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
the northern zones Saturday night near a sfc front. Severe weather is
not expected due to meager CAPE and particularly very weak bulk shear.
A better chance at more widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected
Sunday as a weak upper level trough moves across the region. Made spatiotemporal
adjustments of pops with a bias towards the ECMWF as this model seems
to be less problematic than the GFS (overdoing boundary layer moisture).
Again, overall instability and particularly shear are on the weak side,
so the main threat will be lightning.

Next week:

There may be isolated convection on the edge of the EML plume Tuesday
night for the northern zones, but confidence is very low as the GFS is
the only model showing this (versus EC/GEM). Will cap pops at 15 percent
and use isolated coverage since the overall convective signal is marginal
at best.

Attention then turns to Wednesday. The GFS is waffling back and forth,
whereas the EC seems to be a bit quasi-stable with synoptic/mesoscale
features. Have a concern for supercells in the eastern zones (generally
along and east of Highway 183). Warm 700-hPa temperatures will limit
overall coverage, but think that an isolated storm developing along
the dryline is not out of the question. CAPE from the EC is lower than
compared to yesterday (model is probably catching on to the front that
is currently across the Gulf basin and resultant impact in the future
with with moisture advection). Still, the model shows upper 50sF to
around 60F dewpoints advecting northward with 1500 J/kg of cape. Bulk
shear of 40-50 kt would support the notion of more organized convection.
Local research using the GFS (since EC lacks some parameters) suggests
a large hail threat (hen egg/tennis ball). Wouldn`t total rule out an
isolated tornado, however, LCL`s look fairly high given expected lower
dewpoints in the boundary layer. Anywho, something to watch as we get
out of the global model spectrum and come into the mesoscale model
spectrum by that time. Red flag conditions look likely in the wake
of dryline with downslope winds and mixing. Some 90sF look possible
Wednesday in the western zones.

Beyond that, the forecast looks dry with warm/Spring-like
temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The strong surface pressure gradient will relax a bit as evening
approaches, but not by much. Expect southeast winds of 15g24 knots
overnight, along with slowly increasing cirrus clouds moving in
from the the northwest to the southeast. Flight conditions will
remain VFR, but surface winds will remain gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  55  74 /   0  10  10  40
GCK  51  79  53  71 /   0  20  20  30
EHA  52  79  50  75 /   0  30  40  20
LBL  51  79  52  77 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  49  80  56  74 /   0  20  60  60
P28  50  79  57  77 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 182102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50
degrees.

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 402 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The weekend:

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
the northern zones Saturday night near a sfc front. Severe weather is
not expected due to meager CAPE and particularly very weak bulk shear.
A better chance at more widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected
Sunday as a weak upper level trough moves across the region. Made spatiotemporal
adjustments of pops with a bias towards the ECMWF as this model seems
to be less problematic than the GFS (overdoing boundary layer moisture).
Again, overall instability and particularly shear are on the weak side,
so the main threat will be lightning.

Next week:

There may be isolated convection on the edge of the EML plume Tuesday
night for the northern zones, but confidence is very low as the GFS is
the only model showing this (versus EC/GEM). Will cap pops at 15 percent
and use isolated coverage since the overall convective signal is marginal
at best.

Attention then turns to Wednesday. The GFS is waffling back and forth,
whereas the EC seems to be a bit quasi-stable with synoptic/mesoscale
features. Have a concern for supercells in the eastern zones (generally
along and east of Highway 183). Warm 700-hPa temperatures will limit
overall coverage, but think that an isolated storm developing along
the dryline is not out of the question. CAPE from the EC is lower than
compared to yesterday (model is probably catching on to the front that
is currently across the Gulf basin and resultant impact in the future
with with moisture advection). Still, the model shows upper 50sF to
around 60F dewpoints advecting northward with 1500 J/kg of cape. Bulk
shear of 40-50 kt would support the notion of more organized convection.
Local research using the GFS (since EC lacks some parameters) suggests
a large hail threat (hen egg/tennis ball). Wouldn`t total rule out an
isolated tornado, however, LCL`s look fairly high given expected lower
dewpoints in the boundary layer. Anywho, something to watch as we get
out of the global model spectrum and come into the mesoscale model
spectrum by that time. Red flag conditions look likely in the wake
of dryline with downslope winds and mixing. Some 90sF look possible
Wednesday in the western zones.

Beyond that, the forecast looks dry with warm/Spring-like
temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A fairly strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place
into Saturday with south southeast winds of 15-28kt. After
midnight a low level jet of around 50kt develops. High level
cirrostratus will increase late tonight into Saturday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  55  74 /   0  10  10  40
GCK  51  79  53  71 /   0  20  20  30
EHA  52  79  50  75 /   0  30  40  20
LBL  51  79  52  77 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  49  80  56  74 /   0  20  60  60
P28  50  79  57  77 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KTOP 182101
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
401 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 182101
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
401 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

An upper level ridge across the central plains this afternoon will
slowly move east across the mid and lower MS river valley by
Saturday Afternoon. An upper level trough off the southern CA
coast...embedded in the southern branch of the upper level
jet...will lift northeast into NM by late Saturday afternoon. During
the day on Saturday, A lee surface trough will deepen across western
KS as a weak cold front moves southeast into northwest KS. A dryline
will develop across extreme southwestern KS and the OK and TX
Panhandles.

The southerly low-level winds on Saturday will advect deeper
moisture northward from west central TX...north across western OK
into west central and central KS. There may be enough moisture and
surface convergence along the dryline and surface cold front for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon
hours of Saturday. At this time the cold front will remain west of
the CWA Saturday afternoon...thus thunderstorms will develop across
west central and the western portions of north central Kansas north
into south central NE.

High and mid level clouds will increase through the day Saturday.
The pressure gradient will increase across central and eastern KS
will increase during the day Saturday, and will cause
south-southeast winds to increase to 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 30
to 35 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Minimum RH`s will only decrease to 40 to 45 percent Saturday
afternoon due to the advection of deeper moisture through the
afternoon hours. So the rangeland fire danger may only be in the
high category.

Lows tonight will only drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Saturday will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models still show a split mid-level flow across the CONUS Saturday
night into Sunday with the trough currently situated over southern
California expected to progress eastward across the southwestern
U.S. before gradually lifting into the northern stream Sunday and
Sunday night. The forecast area will be wedged between high pressure
to the east and low pressure to the west, with a cold front progged
to stretch from northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska Saturday
night. The best forcing and low-level convergence looks to be
focused just north and west of the area near the front, but cannot
rule out a few scattered showers and thunderstorms skimming across
far north central and far northern Kansas. Shear looks to be very
weak across that area but should have some elevated instability
present through the overnight hours. Have trimmed Saturday night
PoPs back some with low-end chance PoPs near the KS/NE border. This
elevated instability will still be in place into Sunday with better
forcing expected by Sunday night as the southern stream wave lifts
northward across the area to merge with the northern stream. With a
few weak embedded shortwaves moving over the area through the day on
Sunday, there may just be some periods of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with better chances across central Kansas during the
afternoon hours as the main mid-level wave approaches the area. As a
result, split the PoPs for Sunday between the morning and afternoon
to reflect this pattern. Have likely PoPs across much of the area
for Sunday night with this passing wave. MUCAPE values upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may be present over central Kansas early in the
evening but will quickly diminish through the evening hours with
wind shear remaining very weak, so do not anticipate any severe
weather. The cold front associated with this system will finally
track eastward over the area late Sunday night through Monday
morning with the showers and thunderstorms diminishing from west to
east through the day on Monday. With southerly winds and increased
cloud cover Saturday night, low temperatures should only drop into
the mid/upper 50s. With a warm start and breezy southerly winds,
expect Sunday temperatures to rise into the mid (and possibly even
upper) 70s with lows Sunday night once again in the mid/upper 50s.
There doesn`t look to be much cold air associated with this frontal
passage so highs for Monday should only cool into the low 70s.

Surface high pressure will build in across the central U.S. Monday
night into Tuesday behind this system with a mid-level ridge moving
toward the Rockies. This will keep conditions dry with highs in the
70s once again for Tuesday. This ridge quickly shifts into the
central U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next mid-level
trough surges into the Pacific northwest. Models are showing a few
weak embedded shortwaves developing the mid-level flow along the
southeastern edge of the trough, which could bring some
precipitation chances to the area on Wednesday. However, soundings
show very dry conditions in the low-levels, up to at least 700mb, so
it may be difficult to get anything to develop. But, with some model
consistency present, still kept low PoPs in the forecast. As this
trough sweeps into the Northern and Central Plains Wednesday night
through Thursday, it will push a cold front through the area.
However, there are still model discrepancies with regards to the
exact timing of this frontal passage and the resultant chance for
precipitation across the forecast area. The ECMWF remains the most
progressive in pushing the front east of the area by Thursday
afternoon, limiting the area of thunderstorm development to Missouri
and possibly far eastern Kansas. The GFS on the other hand has the
front bisecting the area from north to south early Thursday
afternoon, which would be more favorable for thunderstorm
development, especially across eastern Kansas. Have trended more
toward the ECMWF at this time, and went with slight to low-end
chance PoPs for Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KGLD 182041
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MODERATE 850 MB FLOW
WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS MIXED TONIGHT...SO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
REMAIN SOUTH AT 15-25 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. BY 12Z...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WHILE A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL PROVIDE LIFT BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING MARGINALLY SEVERE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONT IS DECENT...AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP
AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES...DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE WITH FAVORABLE CIN IN THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT HAIL
CLOSE TO 1 INCH WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SINCE CAPE IN THE
HAIL GROWTH REGION IS AROUND 300 TO 400 J/KG. NOT REALLY
ANTICIPATING ANY HAIL OVER 1 INCH SINCE BULK SHEAR IS TOWARDS THE
LOWER END AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH MAY NOT BE THE GREATEST FOR LARGE
HAIL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING AT 15Z AHEAD OF
THE FRONT INCREASING TO 40% TO 50% AFTER 18Z WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS.
EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.00
INCH TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
BULK OF THAT WILL BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA SINCE INSTABILITY DROPS OFF BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SINCE SOME INSTABILITY...AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED TO 500 J/KG OF CAPE...WILL LINGER AND BULK SHEAR
IMPROVES TO 40 TO 50 KTS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH OVERSPREADS PLAINS WITH ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES FORECAST
OVER OUR CWA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING WITH APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...COUPLED WITH GOOD FORCING/CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE...EXPECTING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. BEST COVERAGE/CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
FRONTAL ZONE. STORM MOTIONS BEGIN TO DECREASE AS FRONT STALLS IN
THE SE...WITH 0-6KM WINDS DROPPING TO 15KT OR LESS IMMEDIATELY
ALONG FRONT. THIS COINCIDES WITH AREA OF CWA WHERE MODEL QPF
FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD/BASIN-WIDE
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 0.5 THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY HIGHER WITH THUNDERSTORM TRAINING. LCLS CONTINUE
TO BE HIGH THROUGH EVENT...FAVORING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HAIL/WIND THREAT IF WE DO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS. THERE MAY BE
A LULL IN COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM SHOULD
THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION EAST AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER REGION AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND TROUGH AXIS.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS PLAINS WITH
NORTHERN JET STREAM WELL NORTH OVER CANADA. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
WARMING TEMPS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN PROXIMITY TO A
DRY LINE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY THEN NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WOULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A MUCH
MORE DEFINED DRY LINE AND THIS COULD PUSH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FURTHER WEST...HOWEVER AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THESE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN PLACE. THE
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW DOES FOLLOW SIMILAR PATHS OF PAST
SPRINGTIME WIND/RFW EVENTS...AND WE COULD SEE ADVISORY WINDS AND
VERY LOW RH DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR WEST WHERE MIXED LAYER
TD VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S WOULD SUPPORT RH 10-15 PERCENT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THESE PERIODS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE BACK OVER
THE PLAINS...THOUGH WITH TROUGH OVER GREAT LAKES AND NW FLOW
WE SHOULD SEE LESS OF A RESPONSE IN TEMPS ALOFT...SO AFTER SEVERAL
DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE WEEK WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN
TO SEASONAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTH SURFACE WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...THEN
DECREASE BUT STILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
CIRRUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SITES AFTER 06Z...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER/ALW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MENTZER







000
FXUS63 KICT 182023
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THICKNESS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES.
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TRENDING DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY AS DRIER MORE SUBSIDENT AIR ARRIVES IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST...HIGHS ON
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TUE-WED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. A DRYLINE OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/H10-H85
MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ALTHOUGH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM.
CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THU.

THU-FRI...THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG A PAC FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE
AGAIN...CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BEHIND THE PAC FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S/LOWS IN THE 40S-50S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FOG/HAZE WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS.
THIS WAS MORE THAN LIKELY A RESULT OF THE SMOKE AEROSOLS THAT WERE
LEFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. SKIES REMAIN SOMEWHAT HAZY AS
OF 18Z.

HAZE LASTING INTO THE LATE MORNING SEEMS TO HAVE CAUSED THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TO FORECAST MORE FOG TONIGHT AT
KSLN...KHUT...AND KICT. THINK THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENT
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LEFT OUT OF THE TAF
FORECASTS.

WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND BY 15Z...SHOULD BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 25G35 KNOTS...5-8 KNOTS LESS AT KCNU.

COOK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL CLIMB INTO THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON
SATURDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
INDEX WILL RETURN TO THE VERY HIGH AND EXTREME CATEGORIES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  80  56  76 /   0  10  30  50
HUTCHINSON      51  81  55  76 /   0  10  30  60
NEWTON          51  79  55  75 /   0  10  20  60
ELDORADO        50  78  56  75 /   0  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  78  56  77 /   0  10  20  40
RUSSELL         53  82  56  76 /   0  10  40  60
GREAT BEND      52  80  55  75 /   0  10  40  60
SALINA          52  82  58  77 /   0  10  20  60
MCPHERSON       51  80  56  76 /   0  10  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     48  76  55  77 /   0  10  10  40
CHANUTE         48  76  55  76 /   0  10  10  40
IOLA            48  76  55  76 /   0  10  10  40
PARSONS-KPPF    48  76  56  77 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181937 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A subtropical upper level shortwave trough will move slowly into the
Desert Southwest into Saturday. High level moisture will increase
ahead of this wave with models showing nearly saturated layers at
upper levels. The increasing moisture will cause thickening cirrus
clouds to increase mainly late tonight into Saturday. At the
surface, low pressure in eastern Colorado will move slowly east
toward the Kansas border into Saturday. Strong south winds this
afternoon will weaken slightly by evening, however a low level jet
is forecast to develop after midnight. South winds of 15 mph later
this evening may begin to get gusty with the low level jet at 15 to
25 mph after midnight. Good mixing and increasing high level clouds
will help to keep tonight`s temps on the mild side of around 50
degrees.

For Saturday, strong winds will continue at 25 to 35 mph from the
south ahead of a lee low with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Winds should be just under wind advisory criteria. Relative
humidities should also stay above 20 percent, so not planning on any
Fire Weather headlines at this time. High temps will be tempered a
little by the cirrus cloudiness, and should be around 79 to 81
degrees. Will keep a slight chance for thunderstorms in the far west
near the Colorado border and far north in the I-70 corridor towards
late afternoon as a weak upper level disturbance moves into western
Kansas. South of those areas the atmosphere looks capped. Some
strong thunderstorms may be possible, if storms develop along and
near a warm front, northeast of a surface low, from near Syracuse
to Scott City and Wakeeney. The severe threat looks marginal at
this time with the weak instability and shear.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A fairly strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place
into Saturday with south southeast winds of 15-28kt. After
midnight a low level jet of around 50kt develops. High level
cirrostratus will increase late tonight into Saturday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  79  55  74 /   0  10  10  40
GCK  51  79  53  71 /   0  20  20  30
EHA  52  79  50  75 /   0  30  40  20
LBL  51  79  52  77 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  49  80  56  74 /   0  20  60  60
P28  50  79  57  77 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KICT 181801
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
101 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EASTER WEEKEND:
ALL AREAS TO GET WINDY & WARMER TODAY & SATURDAY AS WESTERN PLAINS
SURFACE TROFFING BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF. INHERITED TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD. NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SAT NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM
ARRIVAL BEING DELAYED UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AS MID-UPPER WAVE REMAINS
OVER WESTERN PLAINS THEREBY SLOWING SE PROGRESS OF ATTENDANT SURFACE
COLD FRONT. LOWEST ~15,000FT OF AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY EVEN AS FAR NW AS
THE NW CORRIDOR OF FORECAST AREA (NW OF SALINA-GREAT BEND). SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTENING DOES OCCUR OVER THE AREAS FROM ~3-7AM SO DID ASSIGN A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OVER CENTRAL KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THESE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED NONE-THE-LESS. IT COULD BE SOMEWHAT
SOGGY EASTER AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-UPPER WAVE VENTURES FURTHER E
OVER WESTERN KS. THIS WOULD OF COURSE PUSH COLD FRONT FURTHER SE OVER
WESTERN KS. LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AS DOES LOWER-DECK
CONVERGENCE (ALBEIT GRADUALLY). HAVE RETAINED ~50% POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
& SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SPREADS
SLOWLY E TOWARD EASTERN KS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PROGRESSION IS SLOW SO AS
SUCH HAVE SPREAD 50-60% THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER W COVERING ALL OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. SLOW SE PROGRESS OF MID-LEVEL WAVE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MON & MON NIGHT:
SLOW E/SE ADVANCEMENT OF OVERALL PATTERN DICTATES KEEPING ALL FACETS
OF INHERITED FORECAST (20-50% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS) INTACT TO REFLECT DEPICTED
COLD FRONTAL POSITIONING. SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT
SOUTHEAST KS MON AFTERNOON AS SE-MOVING MID-LEVEL WAVE VACATES THESE
AREAS.

TUE-THU:
AFTER A DRY TUE THUNDERSTORM RETURN TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-UPPER
CYCLONE VENTURES TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED & WED
NIGHT. THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE & IT`S ATTENDANT TROF
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK
& WITH THIS BEING A MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FOG/HAZE WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS.
THIS WAS MORE THAN LIKELY A RESULT OF THE SMOKE AEROSOLS THAT WERE
LEFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. SKIES REMAIN SOMEWHAT HAZY AS
OF 18Z.

HAZE LASTING INTO THE LATE MORNING SEEMS TO HAVE CAUSED THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TO FORECAST MORE FOG TONIGHT AT
KSLN...KHUT...AND KICT. THINK THIS IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY EVENT
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND FORECAST OVERNIGHT. LEFT OUT OF THE TAF
FORECASTS.

WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AND BY 15Z...SHOULD BE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AT 25G35 KNOTS...5-8 KNOTS LESS AT KCNU.

COOK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER-DECK FLOW ADVECTING WARMER & DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS) THE FIRE
DANGER WILL INCREASE TODAY & SAT. THE RED FLAGS WON`T BE HOISTED BUT
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  50  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  51  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          68  51  75  57 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  50  76  58 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  50  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         71  53  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      70  52  78  58 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          70  52  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       70  51  77  57 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         70  48  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  48  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  48  76  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 181740 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A fairly strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place
into Saturday with south southeast winds of 15-28kt. After
midnight a low level jet of around 50kt develops. High level
cirrostratus will increase late tonight into Saturday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  50  79  55 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  74  51  79  53 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  76  52  79  50 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  76  51  79  52 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  73  49  80  55 /   0   0  20  50
P28  72  50  79  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Kruse







000
FXUS63 KGLD 181735
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PATCHY FOG IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING...SO HAVE REMOVED FROM FORECASTS. WINDS ARE ALREADY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT COLBY. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL...
INCREASED THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE...JUST SHY OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN
THIS FLOW IS A SPLIT THAT IS NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST IN TWO
DISTINCT PIECES. FIRST A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH NEAR 100 METER
HEIGHT FALLS...IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN
END A CLOSED OFF LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WAS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

AT JET LEVEL...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF...SREF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST ON THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL THIS IS THE CASE AS WELL. THE SREF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. OVERALL THEY WERE TOO WARM. THE CANADIAN...GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS AND FOG THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS THAT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING IS
SHOWING...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG LOOK GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE ALREADY APPEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WITH STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MIXING WOULD
THINK THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FASTER. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE MODELS STARTING OUT TOO WARM MADE ME GO TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DOES LOOK LIKE IT DOES STAY BELOW
CRITERIA.

HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
THAT COMBINED WITH WINDS STAY RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING DETAILS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF...SREF AND NAM ARE CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
INITIATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BEHIND IT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A CAP STILL HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO A PROBLEM WITH HEATING UP AND BREAKING THIS CAP COULD BE THE
THICKENING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO AT THIS TIME PUT THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE. FRONTAL POSITION AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALMOST PROBLEMATIC.
TENDED TO LOWER THE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JET STRENGTH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE EVENING MAYBE A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT THE MODELS GO OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. MAIN MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS REALLY START
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND EVEN START CLOSING IT OFF. ALSO MODELS...
MAINLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...HANG UP THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

AM GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
DRAW FROM. WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WHICH IS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE
TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WHICH IS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING UP MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS MORE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MID/UPPER SYSTEM
IS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. AGAIN WILL
KEEP MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE STILL BEING PRESENT. HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS STILL 2 TO 3
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.

KEPT THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED. POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD GET EVEN COOLER.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OCCURS...COULD END UP WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUD COVER AND FOG BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE RIDGE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH MORE
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA...PULLING THE DRY LINE WITH IT. DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL WILL INHIBIT
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPPED DUE TO A WARM AIR MASS OVERLYING THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35KTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. IN
ADDITION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY LINE
BOTH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTH SURFACE WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...THEN
DECREASE BUT STILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
CIRRUS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SITES AFTER 06Z...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...MENTZER







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181734
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1234 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southeast winds will
increase to 8 to 12 KTS this afternoon with some gusts. Southerly
winds will increase to 14 to 16 KTS with gusts 23 to 25 KTS by 15Z SAT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KGLD 181404
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
804 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 803 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PATCHY FOG IS RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING...SO HAVE REMOVED FROM FORECASTS. WINDS ARE ALREADY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AT COLBY. WITH GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL...
INCREASED THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE...JUST SHY OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN
THIS FLOW IS A SPLIT THAT IS NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST IN TWO
DISTINCT PIECES. FIRST A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH NEAR 100 METER
HEIGHT FALLS...IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN
END A CLOSED OFF LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WAS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

AT JET LEVEL...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF...SREF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST ON THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL THIS IS THE CASE AS WELL. THE SREF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. OVERALL THEY WERE TOO WARM. THE CANADIAN...GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS AND FOG THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS THAT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING IS
SHOWING...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG LOOK GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE ALREADY APPEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WITH STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MIXING WOULD
THINK THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FASTER. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE MODELS STARTING OUT TOO WARM MADE ME GO TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DOES LOOK LIKE IT DOES STAY BELOW
CRITERIA.

HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
THAT COMBINED WITH WINDS STAY RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING DETAILS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF...SREF AND NAM ARE CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
INITIATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BEHIND IT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A CAP STILL HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO A PROBLEM WITH HEATING UP AND BREAKING THIS CAP COULD BE THE
THICKENING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO AT THIS TIME PUT THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE. FRONTAL POSITION AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALMOST PROBLEMATIC.
TENDED TO LOWER THE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JET STRENGTH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE EVENING MAYBE A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT THE MODELS GO OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. MAIN MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS REALLY START
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND EVEN START CLOSING IT OFF. ALSO MODELS...
MAINLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...HANG UP THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

AM GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
DRAW FROM. WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WHICH IS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE
TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WHICH IS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING UP MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS MORE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MID/UPPER SYSTEM
IS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. AGAIN WILL
KEEP MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE STILL BEING PRESENT. HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS STILL 2 TO 3
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.

KEPT THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED. POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD GET EVEN COOLER.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OCCURS...COULD END UP WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUD COVER AND FOG BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE RIDGE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH MORE
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA...PULLING THE DRY LINE WITH IT. DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL WILL INHIBIT
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPPED DUE TO A WARM AIR MASS OVERLYING THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35KTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. IN
ADDITION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY LINE
BOTH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LIGHT FOG IS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. THERE MAY
BE A SCATTERED LOW DECK OF STRATUS NEAR KMCK VERY EARLY TODAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER







000
FXUS63 KGLD 181140
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN
THIS FLOW IS A SPLIT THAT IS NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST IN TWO
DISTINCT PIECES. FIRST A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH NEAR 100 METER
HEIGHT FALLS...IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN
END A CLOSED OFF LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WAS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

AT JET LEVEL...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF...SREF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST ON THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL THIS IS THE CASE AS WELL. THE SREF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. OVERALL THEY WERE TOO WARM. THE CANADIAN...GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS AND FOG THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS THAT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING IS
SHOWING...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG LOOK GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE ALREADY APPEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WITH STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MIXING WOULD
THINK THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FASTER. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE MODELS STARTING OUT TOO WARM MADE ME GO TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DOES LOOK LIKE IT DOES STAY BELOW
CRITERIA.

HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
THAT COMBINED WITH WINDS STAY RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING DETAILS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF...SREF AND NAM ARE CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
INITIATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BEHIND IT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A CAP STILL HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO A PROBLEM WITH HEATING UP AND BREAKING THIS CAP COULD BE THE
THICKENING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO AT THIS TIME PUT THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE. FRONTAL POSITION AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALMOST PROBLEMATIC.
TENDED TO LOWER THE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JET STRENGTH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE EVENING MAYBE A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT THE MODELS GO OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. MAIN MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS REALLY START
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND EVEN START CLOSING IT OFF. ALSO MODELS...
MAINLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...HANG UP THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

AM GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
DRAW FROM. WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WHICH IS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE
TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WHICH IS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING UP MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS MORE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MID/UPPER SYSTEM
IS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. AGAIN WILL
KEEP MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE STILL BEING PRESENT. HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS STILL 2 TO 3
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.

KEPT THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED. POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD GET EVEN COOLER.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OCCURS...COULD END UP WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUD COVER AND FOG BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE RIDGE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH MORE
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA...PULLING THE DRY LINE WITH IT. DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL WILL INHIBIT
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPPED DUE TO A WARM AIR MASS OVERLYING THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35KTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. IN
ADDITION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY LINE
BOTH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LIGHT FOG IS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. THERE MAY
BE A SCATTERED LOW DECK OF STRATUS NEAR KMCK VERY EARLY TODAY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE UNTIL NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER







000
FXUS63 KDDC 181138
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
638 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Occasional MVFR ceilings will be possible at Dodge City through
14z as low clouds continue to move up from western Oklahoma. VFR
conditions will prevail through the remainder of the period. Look
for southerly winds to increase to 20 to 30 knots as a surface low
pressure trough develops in the lee of the Rockies today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  74  51  78  53 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  76  52  77  50 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  76  49  78  52 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  73  50  80  55 /   0   0  20  50
P28  72  47  80  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard







000
FXUS63 KICT 181134
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EASTER WEEKEND:
ALL AREAS TO GET WINDY & WARMER TODAY & SATURDAY AS WESTERN PLAINS
SURFACE TROFFING BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF. INHERITED TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD. NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SAT NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM
ARRIVAL BEING DELAYED UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AS MID-UPPER WAVE REMAINS
OVER WESTERN PLAINS THEREBY SLOWING SE PROGRESS OF ATTENDANT SURFACE
COLD FRONT. LOWEST ~15,000FT OF AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY EVEN AS FAR NW AS
THE NW CORRIDOR OF FORECAST AREA (NW OF SALINA-GREAT BEND). SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTENING DOES OCCUR OVER THE AREAS FROM ~3-7AM SO DID ASSIGN A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OVER CENTRAL KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THESE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED NONE-THE-LESS. IT COULD BE SOMEWHAT
SOGGY EASTER AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-UPPER WAVE VENTURES FURTHER E
OVER WESTERN KS. THIS WOULD OF COURSE PUSH COLD FRONT FURTHER SE OVER
WESTERN KS. LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AS DOES LOWER-DECK
CONVERGENCE (ALBEIT GRADUALLY). HAVE RETAINED ~50% POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
& SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SPREADS
SLOWLY E TOWARD EASTERN KS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PROGRESSION IS SLOW SO AS
SUCH HAVE SPREAD 50-60% THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER W COVERING ALL OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. SLOW SE PROGRESS OF MID-LEVEL WAVE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MON & MON NIGHT:
SLOW E/SE ADVANCEMENT OF OVERALL PATTERN DICTATES KEEPING ALL FACETS
OF INHERITED FORECAST (20-50% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS) INTACT TO REFLECT DEPICTED
COLD FRONTAL POSITIONING. SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT
SOUTHEAST KS MON AFTERNOON AS SE-MOVING MID-LEVEL WAVE VACATES THESE
AREAS.

TUE-THU:
AFTER A DRY TUE THUNDERSTORM RETURN TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-UPPER
CYCLONE VENTURES TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED & WED
NIGHT. THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE & IT`S ATTENDANT TROF
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK
& WITH THIS BEING A MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN AREAS OF
FOG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS. VISIBILITIES HAVE
BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1SM AND 3SM AND AM EXPECTING THIS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH KRSL GUSTING TO BETWEEN 30
AND 35 MPH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER-DECK FLOW ADVECTING WARMER & DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS) THE FIRE
DANGER WILL INCREASE TODAY & SAT. THE RED FLAGS WON`T BE HOISTED BUT
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  50  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  49  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          68  49  75  57 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  48  76  58 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  50  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         71  50  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      70  50  78  58 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          70  49  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       70  49  77  57 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         70  46  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  46  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  48  76  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 181123
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Patchy dense fog at KTOP will reduce visibilities between LIFR and
MVFR through 14Z. KMHK has remained at IFR through the evening and
will maintain visibility trend through 15Z before surface mixing
dissipates the fog. KFOE is observing MVFR conditions due to the
shallow fog expected through 14Z. Winds will be slow to increase
over KTOP/KFOE with haze lingering through 18Z when south winds
increase at or above 10 kts. KMHK may gust over 20 kts aft 18Z
through 01Z. KTOP and KFOE should see weakening wind speeds after
00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 181123
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At 07Z this morning, upper ridging seen on water vapor imagery
builds eastward into the region. Broad area of high pressure
stretches from Oklahoma through the southeast half of Kansas into
Missouri. The calm winds and and stout inversion at the sfc has
resulted in areas of smoke and haze from the yesterdays prairie
burns. With the dewpoint temperatures in the low 30s and forecast
lows this morning at or just above freezing, will continue the
Frost Advisory through 8 AM. Across north central into western
Kansas, increased south winds around 10 mph were a result of the
surface trough residing over eastern Colorado.

The upper ridging this afternoon will confine the sfc trough and
tighter pressure gradient to north central Kansas. Strong south
winds pickup over north central Kansas between 15 and 25 mph with
gusts in upwards of 30 mph. Slightly weaker winds between 10 and 20
mph are seen over east central and northeast areas. Gulf moisture
begins to increase by the afternoon lifting dew points to the low
40s by late afternoon. As highs climb to near 70 degrees, minimum RH
values fall to the upper 30s. High fire danger conditions exist for
areas west of highway 75 during the late afternoon.

For tonight, an upper shortwave trough begins to eject the surface
wave into the northern and central plains, maintaining the EML over
north central Kansas. Winds in this area average from 10 to
15 mph sustained while elsewhere south winds below 10 mph are
expected. Forecast lows are much warmer than this morning, generally
in the upper 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Models continue to show a southern stream shortwave, currently off
the southern CA coast, moving into the central plains late
Saturday. The model`s prog of the wave doesn`t look that well
organized as it comes out into the plains and because of the split
flow over the CONUS there is no kicker to move it east very fast.
The relatively weak winds associated with the southern stream also
suggest the deep layer shear will be rather weak through the
weekend. While forcing looks disorganized with the wave, cooler
mid level temps associated with the wave allow for some surface
based instability between 1000 and 2000 J/kg to develop by Sunday
afternoon. However ahead of the upper trough the NAM and GFS show
a decent elevated mixed layer providing a good capping inversion
to surface parcels. With this in mind have backed off on the POPs
for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night thinking the cap will
limit coverage of thunderstorms. The better chances should remains
across north central KS in closer proximity to a surface trough
that could provide a focus for low level convergence. Did not make
many changes to the forecast for Sunday. With no real inhibition
to convection on Sunday, think there could be scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. It appears as
though rain chances Sunday morning will be dependent on whether an
MCS develops from the Saturday night convection and manages to
slide south into the area. At this point, I don`t have enough
confidence in the model solutions to lower POPs for Sunday morning
but it looks like chances may be better through the afternoon.
Models show southerly surface winds through the day Sunday and so
with a little insolation highs should be able to warm into the mid
and upper 70s. The upper wave finally begins shifting to the east
of the forecast area Monday. Continued with some chance POPs for
Sunday night and Monday as lapse rates stay steep enough for some
positive buoyancy as long as the upper trough remains overhead.

The GFS and ECMWF are showing signs of elevated convection late
Tuesday night as the southerly low level jet redevelops. Am a
little suspicious of the models QPF here due to mid level ridging
over the plains. Also the models strongest moisture return appears
to be around 700MB and isentropic surfaces suggest the better
saturation may set up just south of the NEB state line.
Nevertheless the models have shown some run to run consistency
with this idea, so will maintain some slight chance pops for
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The better chances for precip may end
up being Wednesday night and Thursday as a longer wavelength
trough moves across the CONUS. However there are some timing
differences with this wave between the GFS and ECMWF. Because of
these differences, opted to remain fairly close to the prev
forecast.

Temps through the period look to be rather mild with no signs of a
Canadian airmass intruding south. Therefore generally keep lows in
the 50s and highs in the 70s. Wednesday could end up being the
warmest day with some places hitting 80 as strong southerly flow
brings warmer air into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 614 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Patchy dense fog at KTOP will reduce visibilities between LIFR and
MVFR through 14Z. KMHK has remained at IFR through the evening and
will maintain visibility trend through 15Z before surface mixing
dissipates the fog. KFOE is observing MVFR conditions due to the
shallow fog expected through 14Z. Winds will be slow to increase
over KTOP/KFOE with haze lingering through 18Z when south winds
increase at or above 10 kts. KMHK may gust over 20 kts aft 18Z
through 01Z. KTOP and KFOE should see weakening wind speeds after
00Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ010>012-
022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen






000
FXUS63 KGLD 181019
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL.
SECONDARY PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN
THIS FLOW IS A SPLIT THAT IS NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST IN TWO
DISTINCT PIECES. FIRST A VERY STRONG SYSTEM...WITH NEAR 100 METER
HEIGHT FALLS...IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON THE SOUTHERN
END A CLOSED OFF LOW IS APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN BAJA. THIS SOUTHERN SYSTEM WAS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

AT JET LEVEL...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE JET THAN THE CANADIAN AND GFS. AT MID
LEVELS...SATELLITE SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF...SREF AND CANADIAN WERE
DOING BEST ON THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. OVERALL THIS IS THE CASE AS WELL. THE SREF WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD. OVERALL THEY WERE TOO WARM. THE CANADIAN...GFS AND
ECMWF WERE DOING ABOUT THE SAME.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE STRATUS AND FOG THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS THAT THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING IS
SHOWING...THE CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG LOOK GOOD. STRATUS AND FOG
HAVE ALREADY APPEARED TO OUR SOUTH AND OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG...MAINLY TO THE EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER. OF COURSE THE TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THE CLOUDS CLEAR. WITH STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER MIXING WOULD
THINK THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FASTER. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS ALONG
WITH THE MODELS STARTING OUT TOO WARM MADE ME GO TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS WILL
PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. DOES LOOK LIKE IT DOES STAY BELOW
CRITERIA.

HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
THAT COMBINED WITH WINDS STAY RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL
MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY
IN RESOLVING DETAILS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE THAT A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
ECMWF...SREF AND NAM ARE CLOSE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
INITIATION COULD OCCUR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BEHIND IT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A CAP STILL HOLDING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO A PROBLEM WITH HEATING UP AND BREAKING THIS CAP COULD BE THE
THICKENING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SO AT THIS TIME PUT THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE DEEPEST LIFT...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE. FRONTAL POSITION AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MAKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALMOST PROBLEMATIC.
TENDED TO LOWER THE MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

JET STRENGTH DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE IN THE EVENING MAYBE A
HINT OF A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE IN
THE NIGHT THE MODELS GO OFF IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. MAIN MID LEVEL
LIFT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS REALLY START
SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND EVEN START CLOSING IT OFF. ALSO MODELS...
MAINLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...HANG UP THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LARGE SWATH
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

AM GOING TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO
DRAW FROM. WHICH LEADS TO ANOTHER GROWING CONCERN WHICH IS MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PWATS INCREASE
TO 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH WHICH IS NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING WHAT THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING UP MOISTURE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
SLOW AND PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. ALSO 850 MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH MODERATE RAIN IN THE GRIDS
BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF THIS SYSTEM
SLOWS MORE.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY...MID/UPPER SYSTEM
IS NEAR OR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO MOVES SLOWLY EAST. GREATEST THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES. AGAIN WILL
KEEP MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
AND ELEVATED CAPE STILL BEING PRESENT. HEAVIER RAINFALL STILL A
THREAT DUE TO EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS STILL 2 TO 3
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING.

KEPT THE COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED. POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD GET EVEN COOLER.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND THE AMOUNT OF WIND
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM OCCURS...COULD END UP WITH A LOT OF LOW
CLOUD COVER AND FOG BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

MONDAY AND TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE RIDGE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
DEVELOP OVER THE DRY LINE IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA...WITH MORE
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA...PULLING THE DRY LINE WITH IT. DESPITE THE DRY LINE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE LCL WILL INHIBIT
STORMS FROM DEVELOPING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN FRINGE OF THE
AREA WHERE THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE ARE LOCATED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPPED DUE TO A WARM AIR MASS OVERLYING THE
COOLER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY DUE TO
A LOW LEVEL JET OF 25-35KTS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME. IN
ADDITION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRY LINE
BOTH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO TUESDAY AND OVER MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND A SURFACE
LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL
BECOME GUSTY BY MID MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AFTER SUNSET. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AFTER 15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW LOWER CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF MCK BETWEEN
11-13Z...BUT CURRENTLY FEEL THEY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IF THEY DO END UP FORMING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART





000
FXUS63 KDDC 180913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
413 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

At the beginning of the period, an upper level ridge will be exiting
the central Plains while an upper level trough, initially over the
Desert Southwest, approaches the central and southern Plains. A
strong upper wave will be tracking east along the U.S./Canadian
border. As this northern wave moves out, it will push a cold front
down into west central and northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon. Low
level moist advection will be occurring ahead of the front which
will result in some destabilization during the day. Model soundings
indicate some mid level capping in place across much of southwest
and central Kansas so think that initially the best chances for
convection will be along the front. Have trimmed pops back across
southwest and south central Kansas during much of the day Saturday
with increasing pops over west central into central Kansas as the
afternoon progresses. Will continue to show increasing pops Saturday
night. Pops will be increasing across much of the area on Sunday
into Sunday evening as the main upper wave moves out. The
precipitation chances will be diminishing Sunday night as the wave
moves past. Will keep a slight chance for showers going Monday
morning over south central Kansas as the wave moves out of that
area.

Have added a slight chance for thunderstorms to areas along and
north of Highways 50 and 156 on Tuesday night as some mid level warm
advection could produce some elevated showers/thunderstorms.

The models continue to show another strong wave approaching the
central Plains on Wednesday. The GFS is coming into a little better
agreement with the ECMWF with the timing of this wave although it
remains a little more positively tilted. The models show a dryline
developing across western Kansas during the day which could be the
focus for some late afternoon thunderstorms.

Behind the dryline, deep mixing of southwesterly flow aloft could
produce dry windy conditions at the surface leading to potential red
flag conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface upslope and radiational cooling have lead to expansion
of stratus northward across the panhandles into the GCK and DDC
terminal vicinity. This stratus should remain at or above the MVFR
category based on current METAR observations and local GFSMOS
guidance. Southerly surface winds will increase and become gusty as
diurnal mixing develops Friday morning after 15 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  40
GCK  74  51  78  53 /   0   0  20  30
EHA  76  52  77  50 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  76  49  78  52 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  73  50  80  55 /   0   0  20  50
P28  72  47  80  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell







000
FXUS63 KDDC 180834
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...updated short term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Stratus in the 2000 to 3000 ft range will continue to spread
northward across the area through around 10 UTC. Clearing should be
most prevalent in the western counties and the best chance for
stratus lingering longer through the morning hours exists in the
central Kansas counties and cities line Saint John to Coldwater and
Medicine Lodge as indicated by the SREF and mesoscale models. Fog
may locally & produce visibilities under a mile as light winds and
relatively low dew point depressions allow condensation on cloud
condensation nuclei. Beyond this morning, the dry air indicated on
the 00 UTC sounding coupled with a moderate pressure gradient will
promote surface mixing and breezy southerly winds between 15 and 18
UTC Friday. Winds will diminish after 01 UTC but remain well mixed
from a southerly direction, leading to mild overnight temperatures
mainly in the 50s and upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The weekend:

A broad, weak upper level trough will move across the region over the
weekend. This feature and low level isentropic lift will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area through the weekend.
Spatial coverage of thunderstorms is fairly uncertain, and have broad-
brushed pops. The highest pops will remain across the northern zones,
it association with closer proximity to a sfc front. Severe weather
is not expected due to very weak bulk shear and related very weak flow
at the mid and upper levels. Environment looks like pulse thunderstorms.

Next week:

The main item of interest is next Wednesday. A negatively tilted trough
will approach the region towards midweek. Ahead of this feature, low
level warm/moisture advection is expected. The 12Z ECMWF indicates dewpoints
around 60F advecting northward across central Kansas. Severe weather
could be a possibility with 45-50 kt of bulk shear, a passing jet streak,
and SBCAPE in the 2000 J/kg range, possibly higher. Capping could be
an issue with fairly warm 700-hPa temps. Mesoscale dryline placement is
largely in question and will depend on how much southwesterly momentum
there is in the low to mid levels. Just taking the EC model at face
value, the ingredients are there for supercells, although, there is
large uncertainty in where storms will form and where the dryline will
be. Per the GFS solution, there also could be interesting weather along
and northeast of the triple point in northern Kansas/Nebraska. Anyway,
just something to watch as we get closer to the event. Behind the dryline,
very warm downslope winds and mixing will create a high probability
environment of red flag conditions. Beyond Wednesday, Spring-like/warm
conditions look to continue along with a dry forecast. Doesn`t look
like we will see any frost/freeze temperatures within this period...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Weak surface upslope and radiational cooling have lead to expansion
of stratus northward across the panhandles into the GCK and DDC
terminal vicinity. This stratus should remain at or above the MVFR
category based on current METAR observations and local GFSMOS
guidance. Southerly surface winds will increase and become gusty as
diurnal mixing develops Friday morning after 15 UTC.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Minimum relative humidities will fall to between 20 and 30 percent
this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 70s with dew points in
the 30s. The surface pressure gradient will result in south surface
winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. The combination will lead to
elevated fire danger conditions, while remaining well below red flag
criteria.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  52  79  55 /   0   0  30  50
GCK  74  52  79  53 /   0   0  40  40
EHA  76  53  77  51 /   0   0  30  40
LBL  76  52  79  52 /   0   0  30  40
HYS  73  52  81  55 /   0   0  50  60
P28  72  53  81  56 /   0   0  30  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell







000
FXUS63 KICT 180828
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

EASTER WEEKEND:
ALL AREAS TO GET WINDY & WARMER TODAY & SATURDAY AS WESTERN PLAINS
SURFACE TROFFING BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF. INHERITED TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD. NOTABLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO SAT NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORM
ARRIVAL BEING DELAYED UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AS MID-UPPER WAVE REMAINS
OVER WESTERN PLAINS THEREBY SLOWING SE PROGRESS OF ATTENDANT SURFACE
COLD FRONT. LOWEST ~15,000FT OF AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY EVEN AS FAR NW AS
THE NW CORRIDOR OF FORECAST AREA (NW OF SALINA-GREAT BEND). SOME MID-
LEVEL MOISTENING DOES OCCUR OVER THE AREAS FROM ~3-7AM SO DID ASSIGN A
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OVER CENTRAL KS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THESE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED NONE-THE-LESS. IT COULD BE SOMEWHAT
SOGGY EASTER AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED MID-UPPER WAVE VENTURES FURTHER E
OVER WESTERN KS. THIS WOULD OF COURSE PUSH COLD FRONT FURTHER SE OVER
WESTERN KS. LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AS DOES LOWER-DECK
CONVERGENCE (ALBEIT GRADUALLY). HAVE RETAINED ~50% POPS ACROSS CENTRAL
& SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SPREADS
SLOWLY E TOWARD EASTERN KS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PROGRESSION IS SLOW SO AS
SUCH HAVE SPREAD 50-60% THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER W COVERING ALL OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. SLOW SE PROGRESS OF MID-LEVEL WAVE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

MON & MON NIGHT:
SLOW E/SE ADVANCEMENT OF OVERALL PATTERN DICTATES KEEPING ALL FACETS
OF INHERITED FORECAST (20-50% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE MUCH HIGHER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS) INTACT TO REFLECT DEPICTED
COLD FRONTAL POSITIONING. SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT
SOUTHEAST KS MON AFTERNOON AS SE-MOVING MID-LEVEL WAVE VACATES THESE
AREAS.

TUE-THU:
AFTER A DRY TUE THUNDERSTORM RETURN TUE NIGHT AS A STRONG MID-UPPER
CYCLONE VENTURES TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED & WED
NIGHT. THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE & IT`S ATTENDANT TROF
WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK
& WITH THIS BEING A MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PATCHY MVFR FOG VSBYS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE LIGHT
RADIATIONAL FOG. SOME HAZE DUE TO RANGELAND SMOKE IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOME RETURN MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOWARD DAWN COULD ALSO RESULT IN SCT-BKN STRATUS CIGS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WELL...MAINLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
SITES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWER-DECK FLOW ADVECTING WARMER & DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS) THE FIRE
DANGER WILL INCREASE TODAY & SAT. THE RED FLAGS WON`T BE HOISTED BUT
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  50  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  49  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
NEWTON          68  49  75  57 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        69  48  76  58 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  50  77  58 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         71  50  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      70  50  78  58 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          70  49  79  57 /   0   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       70  49  77  57 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         70  46  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            69  46  76  56 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    70  48  76  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES







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