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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
320 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS THE CWA. THE PAST HALF
HOUR SINCE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS YIELDED MANY AREAS DROPPING BELOW
A MILE IN VISIBILITY...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REST OF FORECAST OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE DO RESIDE
OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR TODAY THOUGH WILL HAVE
AREAS OF FOG THRU MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. A
WARM DAY IS ON TAP YET AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING STRONG WAA INTO THE AREA AND WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
NEAR +28C TO +30C OVER THE CWA...WILL HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90F. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION. TOWARDS
MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...EXPECTING SOME GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
NOT EXPECTING FOG AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE WELL MIXED WITH EXPECTED WIND
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WHICH ARE SET IN THE MODELS TO
MAINLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SSW THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS SET
UP WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY RIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM CLRS REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH ON AMOUNTS OF QPF EXTENT INTO
THE CWA AND WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT
COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW FROPA
THRU AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO ODILE SO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNTREND WITH INCREASING CLDS/PRECIP
OVER AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 80S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE ARE TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE IS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
SECOND FEATURE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
BOTH SYSTEMS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 180920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
320 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS THE CWA. THE PAST HALF
HOUR SINCE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS YIELDED MANY AREAS DROPPING BELOW
A MILE IN VISIBILITY...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REST OF FORECAST OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE DO RESIDE
OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR TODAY THOUGH WILL HAVE
AREAS OF FOG THRU MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. A
WARM DAY IS ON TAP YET AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING STRONG WAA INTO THE AREA AND WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
NEAR +28C TO +30C OVER THE CWA...WILL HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90F. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION. TOWARDS
MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...EXPECTING SOME GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
NOT EXPECTING FOG AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE WELL MIXED WITH EXPECTED WIND
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WHICH ARE SET IN THE MODELS TO
MAINLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SSW THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS SET
UP WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY RIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM CLRS REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH ON AMOUNTS OF QPF EXTENT INTO
THE CWA AND WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT
COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW FROPA
THRU AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO ODILE SO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNTREND WITH INCREASING CLDS/PRECIP
OVER AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 80S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE ARE TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE IS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
SECOND FEATURE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
BOTH SYSTEMS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 180920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
320 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS THE CWA. THE PAST HALF
HOUR SINCE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS YIELDED MANY AREAS DROPPING BELOW
A MILE IN VISIBILITY...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REST OF FORECAST OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE DO RESIDE
OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR TODAY THOUGH WILL HAVE
AREAS OF FOG THRU MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. A
WARM DAY IS ON TAP YET AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING STRONG WAA INTO THE AREA AND WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
NEAR +28C TO +30C OVER THE CWA...WILL HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90F. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION. TOWARDS
MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...EXPECTING SOME GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
NOT EXPECTING FOG AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE WELL MIXED WITH EXPECTED WIND
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WHICH ARE SET IN THE MODELS TO
MAINLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SSW THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS SET
UP WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY RIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM CLRS REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH ON AMOUNTS OF QPF EXTENT INTO
THE CWA AND WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT
COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW FROPA
THRU AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO ODILE SO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNTREND WITH INCREASING CLDS/PRECIP
OVER AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 80S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE ARE TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE IS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
SECOND FEATURE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
BOTH SYSTEMS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 180920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
320 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS THE CWA. THE PAST HALF
HOUR SINCE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS YIELDED MANY AREAS DROPPING BELOW
A MILE IN VISIBILITY...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. REST OF FORECAST OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE DO RESIDE
OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR TODAY THOUGH WILL HAVE
AREAS OF FOG THRU MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. A
WARM DAY IS ON TAP YET AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING STRONG WAA INTO THE AREA AND WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
NEAR +28C TO +30C OVER THE CWA...WILL HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90F. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION. TOWARDS
MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...EXPECTING SOME GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
NOT EXPECTING FOG AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE WELL MIXED WITH EXPECTED WIND
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WHICH ARE SET IN THE MODELS TO
MAINLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SSW THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS SET
UP WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY RIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM CLRS REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH ON AMOUNTS OF QPF EXTENT INTO
THE CWA AND WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT
COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW FROPA
THRU AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO ODILE SO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNTREND WITH INCREASING CLDS/PRECIP
OVER AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 80S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE ARE TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE IS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
SECOND FEATURE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
BOTH SYSTEMS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 180902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTED IN ELEVATED
FASHION WHILE PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIURNAL COOLING RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FOG DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS FROM SCOTT COUNTY INTO LANE
AND NESS COUNTIES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
SINCE VISIBILITIES WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW A
QUARTER OF A MILE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE LOWER LEVELS WERE DRIER
AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL EDGE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG FROM
NORTHERN NESS INTO TREGO, ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT HAYS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S, WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
NM/AZ THIS MORNING WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A LONG WAVE RIDGE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES INTO NEXT WEEK, WHILE A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR 120W PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EVOLUTION OF THE
FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS SUGGESTED THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG
NEAR 110W BY 27 SEPTEMBER FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS, AND THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z RUN. MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXHIBIT
TREMENDOUS SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE FLOW WILL EVOLVE LATE NEXT
WEEK IS VERY LOW.

A KELVIN WAVE IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND
APPEARS TO BE NEAR 80W THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS LITTLE
COHERENT SIGNAL IN TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT OF TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MONTH IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN. RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR
MOMENTUM REMAINS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES, BUT MOUNTAIN TORQUE
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT DAYS. THE FLOW IS BEST
REPRESENTED BY PHASE 4 OF THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAM, WHICH CORRELATES TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
AROUND 30-40 DEGREES NORTH, AND A WAVE BREAK IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE NEAR THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WILL BE NEAR
100W BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANT THAN THE GFS AND SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
NEW MEXICO INTO WYOMING. AS SUCH, HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY WILL FALL
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. A WIND SHIFT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO MINNESOTA, BUT MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
THE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL SLOSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IN THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 120W EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WALLOW SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  88  66 /   0   0  30  80
GCK  92  62  87  65 /   0   0  30  70
EHA  86  61  79  61 /   0  10  80  90
LBL  89  63  86  65 /   0   0  70  90
HYS  83  65  89  65 /  10   0   0  40
P28  91  67  91  69 /  10   0  30  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>046-
063>065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTED IN ELEVATED
FASHION WHILE PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIURNAL COOLING RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FOG DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS FROM SCOTT COUNTY INTO LANE
AND NESS COUNTIES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
SINCE VISIBILITIES WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW A
QUARTER OF A MILE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE LOWER LEVELS WERE DRIER
AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL EDGE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG FROM
NORTHERN NESS INTO TREGO, ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT HAYS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S, WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
NM/AZ THIS MORNING WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A LONG WAVE RIDGE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES INTO NEXT WEEK, WHILE A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR 120W PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EVOLUTION OF THE
FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS SUGGESTED THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG
NEAR 110W BY 27 SEPTEMBER FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS, AND THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z RUN. MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXHIBIT
TREMENDOUS SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE FLOW WILL EVOLVE LATE NEXT
WEEK IS VERY LOW.

A KELVIN WAVE IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND
APPEARS TO BE NEAR 80W THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS LITTLE
COHERENT SIGNAL IN TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT OF TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MONTH IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN. RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR
MOMENTUM REMAINS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES, BUT MOUNTAIN TORQUE
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT DAYS. THE FLOW IS BEST
REPRESENTED BY PHASE 4 OF THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAM, WHICH CORRELATES TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
AROUND 30-40 DEGREES NORTH, AND A WAVE BREAK IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE NEAR THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WILL BE NEAR
100W BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANT THAN THE GFS AND SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
NEW MEXICO INTO WYOMING. AS SUCH, HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY WILL FALL
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. A WIND SHIFT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO MINNESOTA, BUT MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
THE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL SLOSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IN THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 120W EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WALLOW SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  88  66 /   0   0  30  80
GCK  92  62  87  65 /   0   0  30  70
EHA  86  61  79  61 /   0  10  80  90
LBL  89  63  86  65 /   0   0  70  90
HYS  83  65  89  65 /  10   0   0  40
P28  91  67  91  69 /  10   0  30  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>046-
063>065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTED IN ELEVATED
FASHION WHILE PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIURNAL COOLING RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FOG DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS FROM SCOTT COUNTY INTO LANE
AND NESS COUNTIES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
SINCE VISIBILITIES WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW A
QUARTER OF A MILE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE LOWER LEVELS WERE DRIER
AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL EDGE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG FROM
NORTHERN NESS INTO TREGO, ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT HAYS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S, WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
NM/AZ THIS MORNING WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A LONG WAVE RIDGE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES INTO NEXT WEEK, WHILE A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR 120W PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EVOLUTION OF THE
FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS SUGGESTED THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG
NEAR 110W BY 27 SEPTEMBER FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS, AND THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z RUN. MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXHIBIT
TREMENDOUS SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE FLOW WILL EVOLVE LATE NEXT
WEEK IS VERY LOW.

A KELVIN WAVE IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND
APPEARS TO BE NEAR 80W THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS LITTLE
COHERENT SIGNAL IN TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT OF TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MONTH IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN. RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR
MOMENTUM REMAINS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES, BUT MOUNTAIN TORQUE
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT DAYS. THE FLOW IS BEST
REPRESENTED BY PHASE 4 OF THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAM, WHICH CORRELATES TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
AROUND 30-40 DEGREES NORTH, AND A WAVE BREAK IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE NEAR THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WILL BE NEAR
100W BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANT THAN THE GFS AND SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
NEW MEXICO INTO WYOMING. AS SUCH, HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY WILL FALL
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. A WIND SHIFT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO MINNESOTA, BUT MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
THE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL SLOSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IN THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 120W EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WALLOW SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  88  66 /   0   0  30  80
GCK  92  62  87  65 /   0   0  30  70
EHA  86  61  79  61 /   0  10  80  90
LBL  89  63  86  65 /   0   0  70  90
HYS  83  65  89  65 /  10   0   0  40
P28  91  67  91  69 /  10   0  30  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>046-
063>065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180902
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTED IN ELEVATED
FASHION WHILE PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIURNAL COOLING RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FOG DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS FROM SCOTT COUNTY INTO LANE
AND NESS COUNTIES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
SINCE VISIBILITIES WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW A
QUARTER OF A MILE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE LOWER LEVELS WERE DRIER
AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL EDGE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG FROM
NORTHERN NESS INTO TREGO, ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT HAYS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S, WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
NM/AZ THIS MORNING WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A LONG WAVE RIDGE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
UNITED STATES INTO NEXT WEEK, WHILE A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR 120W PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EVOLUTION OF THE
FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS SUGGESTED THAT A TROUGH WILL DIG
NEAR 110W BY 27 SEPTEMBER FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS, AND THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z RUN. MOST OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXHIBIT
TREMENDOUS SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE FLOW WILL EVOLVE LATE NEXT
WEEK IS VERY LOW.

A KELVIN WAVE IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AND
APPEARS TO BE NEAR 80W THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS LITTLE
COHERENT SIGNAL IN TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT OF TROPICAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MONTH IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN. RELATIVE ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR
MOMENTUM REMAINS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES, BUT MOUNTAIN TORQUE
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN RECENT DAYS. THE FLOW IS BEST
REPRESENTED BY PHASE 4 OF THE GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAM, WHICH CORRELATES TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC ANGULAR MOMENTUM HAS BEEN INCREASING IN
AROUND 30-40 DEGREES NORTH, AND A WAVE BREAK IN THE WESTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE NEAR THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND WILL BE NEAR
100W BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANT THAN THE GFS AND SEEMS MORE REASONABLE
GIVEN THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
NEW MEXICO INTO WYOMING. AS SUCH, HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY WILL FALL
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. A WIND SHIFT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO MINNESOTA, BUT MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
THE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL SLOSH INTO WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH IN THE MIDWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 120W EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
WALLOW SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MID
WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ABOUT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  88  66 /   0   0  30  80
GCK  92  62  87  65 /   0   0  30  70
EHA  86  61  79  61 /   0  10  80  90
LBL  89  63  86  65 /   0   0  70  90
HYS  83  65  89  65 /  10   0   0  40
P28  91  67  91  69 /  10   0  30  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>046-
063>065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180859
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE DO RESIDE
OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR TODAY THOUGH WILL HAVE
AREAS OF FOG THRU MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. A
WARM DAY IS ON TAP YET AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING STRONG WAA INTO THE AREA AND WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
NEAR +28C TO +30C OVER THE CWA...WILL HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90F. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION. TOWARDS
MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...EXPECTING SOME GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
NOT EXPECTING FOG AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE WELL MIXED WITH EXPECTED WIND
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WHICH ARE SET IN THE MODELS TO
MAINLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SSW THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS SET
UP WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY RIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM CLRS REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH ON AMOUNTS OF QPF EXTENT INTO
THE CWA AND WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT
COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW FROPA
THRU AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO ODILE SO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNTREND WITH INCREASING CLDS/PRECIP
OVER AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 80S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE ARE TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE IS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
SECOND FEATURE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
BOTH SYSTEMS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 180859
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE DO RESIDE
OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR TODAY THOUGH WILL HAVE
AREAS OF FOG THRU MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. A
WARM DAY IS ON TAP YET AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING STRONG WAA INTO THE AREA AND WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
NEAR +28C TO +30C OVER THE CWA...WILL HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90F. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION. TOWARDS
MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...EXPECTING SOME GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
NOT EXPECTING FOG AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE WELL MIXED WITH EXPECTED WIND
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WHICH ARE SET IN THE MODELS TO
MAINLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SSW THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS SET
UP WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY RIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM CLRS REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH ON AMOUNTS OF QPF EXTENT INTO
THE CWA AND WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT
COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW FROPA
THRU AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO ODILE SO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNTREND WITH INCREASING CLDS/PRECIP
OVER AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 80S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE ARE TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE IS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
SECOND FEATURE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
BOTH SYSTEMS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180852
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTED IN ELEVATED
FASHION WHILE PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIURNAL COOLING RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FOG DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS FROM SCOTT COUNTY INTO LANE
AND NESS COUNTIES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
SINCE VISIBILITIES WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW A
QUARTER OF A MILE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE LOWER LEVELS WERE DRIER
AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL EDGE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG FROM
NORTHERN NESS INTO TREGO, ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT HAYS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S, WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
NM/AZ THIS MORNING WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  88  66 /   0   0  30  80
GCK  92  62  87  65 /   0   0  30  70
EHA  86  61  79  61 /   0  10  80  90
LBL  89  63  86  65 /   0   0  70  90
HYS  83  65  89  65 /  10   0   0  40
P28  91  67  91  69 /  10   0  30  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>046-
063>065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180852
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
352 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERSISTED IN ELEVATED
FASHION WHILE PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIURNAL COOLING RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. FOG DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS FROM SCOTT COUNTY INTO LANE
AND NESS COUNTIES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THIS AREA
SINCE VISIBILITIES WERE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW A
QUARTER OF A MILE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THE LOWER LEVELS WERE DRIER
AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL EDGE
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS. DESPITE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES FROM 1500-3000 J/KG FROM
NORTHERN NESS INTO TREGO, ELLIS AND RUSH COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, IT APPEARS THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT HAYS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS. WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 60S, WITH THE COOLEST
READINGS IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAVE PROGRESSED INTO
NM/AZ THIS MORNING WILL BE TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  65  88  66 /   0   0  30  80
GCK  92  62  87  65 /   0   0  30  70
EHA  86  61  79  61 /   0  10  80  90
LBL  89  63  86  65 /   0   0  70  90
HYS  83  65  89  65 /  10   0   0  40
P28  91  67  91  69 /  10   0  30  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ043>046-
063>065.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 180750
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
250 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED OVERNIGHT...ORIENTED IN A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST MANNER FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG A
900-800MB FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THETA-E
GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THINKING THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF I-135 DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
QUARTER TO POTENTIALLY GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN STORMS TRAINING IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MANOR. HOWEVER...IF A MASSIVE COLD POOL CAN
MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THE CONSOLIDATING STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS 60 MPH WINDS.
NEVERTHELESS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY EAST
OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH
LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. STOUT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PHASING WITH A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS SURROUNDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND NAM HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD DRASTICALLY LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
CONTINUE ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD FAVOR MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...THOUGHT IT
PRUDENT TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
GENERALLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH...AS
A LUMBERING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AS ECMWF AND GFS DIG A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AM...TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AIDED BY WEAK FORCING AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. VCTS IS BEING CARRIED FOR MOST TERMINALS.

LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      88  69  89  69 /  20  10  10  30
NEWTON          85  68  87  69 /  40  10  10  20
ELDORADO        86  68  88  70 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  69  87  70 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         84  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      88  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  40
SALINA          81  68  90  70 /  30  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       84  68  88  68 /  30  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     88  68  86  69 /  50  10  10   0
CHANUTE         81  67  86  68 /  50  10  10   0
IOLA            80  66  85  68 /  50  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  68  86  68 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 180750
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
250 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTED OVERNIGHT...ORIENTED IN A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST MANNER FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG A
900-800MB FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. GIVEN ORIENTATION OF THETA-E
GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THINKING THIS ACTIVITY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF I-135 DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
QUARTER TO POTENTIALLY GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING GIVEN STORMS TRAINING IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MANOR. HOWEVER...IF A MASSIVE COLD POOL CAN
MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THE CONSOLIDATING STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS 60 MPH WINDS.
NEVERTHELESS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY EAST
OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH
LIKELY NOT WIDESPREAD GIVEN WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. STOUT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PHASING WITH A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS SURROUNDING THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z
ECMWF AND NAM HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF KEEPING ODILE REMNANTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD DRASTICALLY LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
CONTINUE ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD FAVOR MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...THOUGHT IT
PRUDENT TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
GENERALLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH...AS
A LUMBERING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AS ECMWF AND GFS DIG A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AM...TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AIDED BY WEAK FORCING AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY. VCTS IS BEING CARRIED FOR MOST TERMINALS.

LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  69  89  70 /  30  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      88  69  89  69 /  20  10  10  30
NEWTON          85  68  87  69 /  40  10  10  20
ELDORADO        86  68  88  70 /  50  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  69  87  70 /  40  10  10  10
RUSSELL         84  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      88  67  89  67 /  10  10  10  40
SALINA          81  68  90  70 /  30  10  10  30
MCPHERSON       84  68  88  68 /  30  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     88  68  86  69 /  50  10  10   0
CHANUTE         81  67  86  68 /  50  10  10   0
IOLA            80  66  85  68 /  50  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    85  68  86  68 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KGLD 180601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 180601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 180557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE
HIGH CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED,
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM
HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY. NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPSLOPE LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR FOG WILL BE
NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG IN THE GRIDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT INCOMING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  86  66  75 /   0  10  70  80
GCK  65  85  66  77 /   0  30  70  80
EHA  65  79  64  79 /  10  60  70  40
LBL  66  83  66  79 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  67  86  67  77 /   0  10  40  50
P28  69  88  70  75 /   0  10  40  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 180557
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE
HIGH CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED,
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM
HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY. NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPSLOPE LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR FOG WILL BE
NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG IN THE GRIDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT INCOMING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF LIFR CIGS AND FOG BETWEEN
11-14Z AT KHYS. IF THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH A LITTLE, THEN EVEN KDDC
AND KGCK COULD EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG BY 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  86  66  75 /   0  10  70  80
GCK  65  85  66  77 /   0  30  70  80
EHA  65  79  64  79 /  10  60  70  40
LBL  66  83  66  79 /   0  30  70  70
HYS  67  86  67  77 /   0  10  40  50
P28  69  88  70  75 /   0  10  40  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...FINCH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 180506
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1206 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Two items of focus through tonight are a complex of thunderstorms
that should track very near the southwest border of the forecast
area (Minneapolis to Council Grove to Garnett on the northern edge
of the better TS chances), and development of potentially dense
fog on the edge of cloud cover in the northeastern half of the
forecast area. The thunderstorm complex is developing in north
central KS in conjunction with a weak short wave trough moving
toward the southeast. Near term model guidance is consistent in
developing this system toward the ESE and eventually SE through
sunrise. This should bring a good chance for storms to the area
south of the aforementioned line. Severe weather appears rather
unlikely but modest CAPE and a bit of elevated wind shear could
make for a few strong storms.

Regarding fog, it`s not a slam dunk situation given some
suggestions of continued boundary layer mixing with quite dry air
immediately above the inversion, and also potential for more
widespread cloud cover to build in. There is however, a lot of
moisture trapped under the inversion as well, and temperatures
have been cooling very close to the dewpoint in areas with clear
skies. Visibilities have begun to decrease, with a few eastern KS
and western MO locations below 1 mile (mainly in valleys and cold
air drainage areas). There certainly seems to be potential for a
widespread dense fog setup, especially north of a Garnett to
Manhattan to Belleville line, but there also seems to be potential
for the low level winds to work in concert with increasing mid
clouds to mitigate dense fog potential. At this point, have
updated the forecast to have a dense fog mention...but without an
advisory for now. Will need to monitor through the night.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Fog has quickly developed at TOP/FOE, with more gradual vis
restrictions building into MHK. Expect the LIFR vis to be dominant
through 14Z at TOP/FOE, although it may fluctuate between 06Z and
09Z as mid clouds move overhead. These clouds should clear out
though with the fog persisting. MHK will be more heavily
influenced by the mid cloud cover, and do not expect such low vis
at MHK for this reason...although a period of IFR seems likely
around sunrise. Vis will improve after 14Z but expect broken
ceilings to remain through much of the morning, with cigs rising
from IFR to MVFR before scattering out.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KICT 180430
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AM...TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AIDED BY WEAK FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. VCTS IS BEING CARRIED FOR MOST TERMINALS.

LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 180430
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AM...TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AIDED BY WEAK FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. VCTS IS BEING CARRIED FOR MOST TERMINALS.

LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 180430
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AM...TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AIDED BY WEAK FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. VCTS IS BEING CARRIED FOR MOST TERMINALS.

LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 180430
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT
FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN MO. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AM...TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AIDED BY WEAK FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY. VCTS IS BEING CARRIED FOR MOST TERMINALS.

LOW STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR WILL BE LIKELY. THE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TOWARD
MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT LIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  30  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KTOP 180355
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1055 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to near term and aviation forecast discussions...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Two items of focus through tonight are a complex of thunderstorms
that should track very near the southwest border of the forecast
area (Minneapolis to Council Grove to Garnett on the northern edge
of the better TS chances), and development of potentially dense
fog on the edge of cloud cover in the northeastern half of the
forecast area. The thunderstorm complex is developing in north
central KS in conjunction with a weak short wave trough moving
toward the southeast. Near term model guidance is consistent in
developing this system toward the ESE and eventually SE through
sunrise. This should bring a good chance for storms to the area
south of the aforementioned line. Severe weather appears rather
unlikely but modest CAPE and a bit of elevated wind shear could
make for a few strong storms.

Regarding fog, it`s not a slam dunk situation given some
suggestions of continued boundary layer mixing with quite dry air
immediately above the inversion, and also potential for more
widespread cloud cover to build in. There is however, a lot of
moisture trapped under the inversion as well, and temperatures
have been cooling very close to the dewpoint in areas with clear
skies. Visibilities have begun to decrease, with a few eastern KS
and western MO locations below 1 mile (mainly in valleys and cold
air drainage areas). There certainly seems to be potential for a
widespread dense fog setup, especially north of a Garnett to
Manhattan to Belleville line, but there also seems to be potential
for the low level winds to work in concert with increasing mid
clouds to mitigate dense fog potential. At this point, have
updated the forecast to have a dense fog mention...but without an
advisory for now. Will need to monitor through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updating previous aviation discussion to include a greater chance
for reduced visibility tonight at all sites, but particularly at
TOP/FOE. Vis has already been decreasing, especially on the
northern edge of low stratus cloud deck. Confidence in timing and
eventually magnitude of vis reduction is still in question, but
periods of fog less than 1SM seems plausible by 12Z. Then after
sunrise should see the fog moisture mix into a broken stratus
deck with a gradual increase in cig heights, scattering out by
late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 180355
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1055 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to near term and aviation forecast discussions...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Two items of focus through tonight are a complex of thunderstorms
that should track very near the southwest border of the forecast
area (Minneapolis to Council Grove to Garnett on the northern edge
of the better TS chances), and development of potentially dense
fog on the edge of cloud cover in the northeastern half of the
forecast area. The thunderstorm complex is developing in north
central KS in conjunction with a weak short wave trough moving
toward the southeast. Near term model guidance is consistent in
developing this system toward the ESE and eventually SE through
sunrise. This should bring a good chance for storms to the area
south of the aforementioned line. Severe weather appears rather
unlikely but modest CAPE and a bit of elevated wind shear could
make for a few strong storms.

Regarding fog, it`s not a slam dunk situation given some
suggestions of continued boundary layer mixing with quite dry air
immediately above the inversion, and also potential for more
widespread cloud cover to build in. There is however, a lot of
moisture trapped under the inversion as well, and temperatures
have been cooling very close to the dewpoint in areas with clear
skies. Visibilities have begun to decrease, with a few eastern KS
and western MO locations below 1 mile (mainly in valleys and cold
air drainage areas). There certainly seems to be potential for a
widespread dense fog setup, especially north of a Garnett to
Manhattan to Belleville line, but there also seems to be potential
for the low level winds to work in concert with increasing mid
clouds to mitigate dense fog potential. At this point, have
updated the forecast to have a dense fog mention...but without an
advisory for now. Will need to monitor through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Updating previous aviation discussion to include a greater chance
for reduced visibility tonight at all sites, but particularly at
TOP/FOE. Vis has already been decreasing, especially on the
northern edge of low stratus cloud deck. Confidence in timing and
eventually magnitude of vis reduction is still in question, but
periods of fog less than 1SM seems plausible by 12Z. Then after
sunrise should see the fog moisture mix into a broken stratus
deck with a gradual increase in cig heights, scattering out by
late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 172349
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

20 water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Clouds have broken up or dissolved at TOP and FOE with all sites
beginning the period VFR. NAM shows drier air advecting into
eastern Kansas in the 925mb to 700mb layer this evening. Latest
TOP sounding shows very dry air above 875 mb. Soundings suggest
that IFR cigs may reform in the TOP and FOE terminals after 08Z.
Left low clouds scattered for now and will monitor trends to
inclusion of a IFR or MVFR cig. Lower boundary layer remain mixed
and kept vsbys toward sunrise MVFR. VFR conditions expected after
15Z Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KGLD 172345
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. CURRENT AREA OF
STORMS SHOULD DECLINE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE
KMCK SITE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE VCTS IN THE TAF. WILL SEE WHAT THE LATEST DATA SAYS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT AND THUR.
MORNING FOR KMCK. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME SETUP FOR TONIGHT...AM CONFIDENT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE
CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD SO ONLY
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 172345
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. CURRENT AREA OF
STORMS SHOULD DECLINE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE
KMCK SITE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE VCTS IN THE TAF. WILL SEE WHAT THE LATEST DATA SAYS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT AND THUR.
MORNING FOR KMCK. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME SETUP FOR TONIGHT...AM CONFIDENT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE
CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD SO ONLY
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KICT 172341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KS...WILL SINK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...AND LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IFR
LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FORCING/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIMITED. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 172341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KS...WILL SINK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...AND LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IFR
LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FORCING/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIMITED. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 172341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KS...WILL SINK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...AND LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IFR
LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FORCING/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIMITED. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 172341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
641 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KS...WILL SINK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...AND LOWERING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IFR
LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FORCING/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER
LIMITED. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD MIX OUT TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 172320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE
HIGH CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED,
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM
HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY. NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPSLOPE LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR FOG WILL BE
NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG IN THE GRIDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT INCOMING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT, FIRST
ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DDC TERMINAL
A FEW HOURS LATER. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF OF A MILE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE GCK TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHELRY WINDS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  67  86 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  30
EHA  60  86  65  79 /  10   0  10  60
LBL  63  90  66  83 /  10   0   0  30
HYS  65  83  67  86 /  20  20   0  10
P28  68  91  69  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 172320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE
HIGH CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS
AFTERNOON WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED,
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM
HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY. NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD
PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPSLOPE LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR FOG WILL BE
NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM FOG IN THE GRIDS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT INCOMING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLE
HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT, FIRST
ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DDC TERMINAL
A FEW HOURS LATER. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF OF A MILE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE GCK TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHELRY WINDS
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  67  86 /  10   0   0  10
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  30
EHA  60  86  65  79 /  10   0  10  60
LBL  63  90  66  83 /  10   0   0  30
HYS  65  83  67  86 /  20  20   0  10
P28  68  91  69  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KTOP 172046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

20 water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The terminals are expected to remain within a northeast to
easterly low level flow through the period with little or no dry
air advection at the surface. Confidence in when the stratus will
burn off is marginal, but there are signs from satellite and
recent obs that it is starting to erode. Initially based the timing
of improvements to CIGS on the RAP forecast soundings but adjusted
them to hold onto the CIGS slightly longer since there seems to be
a expansive deck of clouds still to the east and northeast.
Models have backed off on elevated precip overnight. Think this
may be due to some dry air in the 900MB to 700MB layer seen in the
isentropic surfaces. With models shearing out the upstream
vorticity or keeping the vort max to the northeast of the
terminals, think it is more likely to remain dry overnight at the
terminals and will not insert a mention of precip at this time.
MOS guidance also wants to redevelop fog (possibly dense) for
Thursday morning. However forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM
suggest any moisture will be very shallow and that 925MB winds of
15 to 20KT should keep some dry air mixing into the boundary layer
through the night. Additionally models show some possible mid
level clouds moving overhead limiting the radiational effects for
ground fog. Because of this, I`m not ready to put IFR VSBY in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters





000
FXUS63 KTOP 172046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

20 water vapor imagery shows mid level ridging over the Rockies with
the remnants of Odile moving across northern Mexico underneath the
ridge. Northwest flow persists across the central plains and a
shortwave was noted over the MT/ND boarder with another disturbance
coming across southeast WY. At the surface, a frontal boundary
remains just to the south and west of the forecast area with
easterly low level flow helping low clouds to hold strong. Where the
clouds have persisted, temps remain in the mid 70s.

For tonight model progs show some fairly dry air in the 900MB to
700MB layer over eastern KS through the night and that the better
isentropic assent combined with saturation is likely to be across
central KS where the surface boundary is located. However the
persistence of the stratus brings into question whether the models
are handling the low level moisture profile very well. Additionally
the models want to shear out the vort max that is currently
producing some lightning strikes in southeastern WY. The forecast
anticipates the better chances for elevated precip to be mainly
along the southwestern boarder where stronger low level
baroclinicity exists and where some mid level saturation is
indicated on the isentropic surfaces. However there is some doubt
especially if the disturbance coming from WY remains better defined
overnight. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to be steep enough
that some of the storms may produce some small hail over night if
they area able to develop.

Late tonight the models want to develop some dense fog overnight
with temp dewpoint spreads approaching zero. It does not look like a
classic radiational fog set up with an easterly wind persisting
through the night. In fact models show 925MB winds of 15KT or better
through the night helping to keep some mixing of the boundary layer.
If in fact there is dry air just above the surface, it is hard to
imagine a lot of fog forming. Add on the chance for some mid level
clouds and I don`t have the confidence to go with anything but
patchy fog across the northern counties where is has clear out
already. Lows tonight should fall into the lower and middle 60s for
most locations.

Thinking that fog and stratus will not be a major issue overnight,
have a forecast for Thursday with decreasing POPs and skies becoming
partly cloudy. Of course if widespread fog develops, the temp
forecast and decreasing clouds may be a little optimistic. For now
with some insolation anticipated and mixing to around 900MB, highs
are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This is slightly
cooler from todays original forecast as models show some weak cold
air advection and cooler temps at 925MB for Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

First few periods of this portion of the forecast still looking dry
for the most part. Still have minor potential for more elevated
convection Thursday night, mainly in northeastern locations, as
isentropic lift picks up on increasing low level jet. Moisture
availability looks meager by this point so have kept a mention out,
but could see an isolated storm or two in the late evening and early
morning hours. Deeper mixing and good insolation expected for the
bulk of Friday for highs approaching 90.

Cold front continues on its slightly slower track with its upper
trough even weaker keeping forcing with the front meager.
Operational models and most GFS ensemble members keep the remnants
of Odile in southern Kansas with again some concern for weaker
forcing/subsidence just to its north. Given these concerns have
lowered PoPs and raised highs a bit area-wide. With upper flow
weakening could see lingering precip in southern areas into Sunday
as well. Models in fairly good agreement in cut-off upper trough
over the southwest states making east to northeast progress into the
Plains toward the mid-week. Have much uncertainty in timing and lift
potential with this and have kept chances small. As Canadian high
pressure builds southeast into the Mississippi Valley, temps are
expected to be somewhat below normal for Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The terminals are expected to remain within a northeast to
easterly low level flow through the period with little or no dry
air advection at the surface. Confidence in when the stratus will
burn off is marginal, but there are signs from satellite and
recent obs that it is starting to erode. Initially based the timing
of improvements to CIGS on the RAP forecast soundings but adjusted
them to hold onto the CIGS slightly longer since there seems to be
a expansive deck of clouds still to the east and northeast.
Models have backed off on elevated precip overnight. Think this
may be due to some dry air in the 900MB to 700MB layer seen in the
isentropic surfaces. With models shearing out the upstream
vorticity or keeping the vort max to the northeast of the
terminals, think it is more likely to remain dry overnight at the
terminals and will not insert a mention of precip at this time.
MOS guidance also wants to redevelop fog (possibly dense) for
Thursday morning. However forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM
suggest any moisture will be very shallow and that 925MB winds of
15 to 20KT should keep some dry air mixing into the boundary layer
through the night. Additionally models show some possible mid
level clouds moving overhead limiting the radiational effects for
ground fog. Because of this, I`m not ready to put IFR VSBY in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KICT 172021
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOIST EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES AFTER 03-06Z. A SECONDARY
CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE POSSIBLY IMPACTING TAF SITES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 172021
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A SURFACE FRONT IS WAVERING AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THE BOUNDARY
COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THERE ARE TWO PERIODS TO FOCUS ON...TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE FIRST IS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS SITUATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE. IF
STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING PERIODS. WITH SOME MODEST SHEAR OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MODERATE CAPE...SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. BY MORNING THE CONCERN WILL BECOME FOG. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DROP IN AREAS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME AREAS MAY
DROP TO 1/2 MILE.

THE SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL PERIOD IS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ENHANCED CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH SOME AREAS SEEING MORE. MOST
OF THE RAIN WILL FALL ON SATURDAY AND WILL LINGER ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS PERIOD AS IT NEARS AS
THE TRACK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY CHANGE SOME. THIS WILL BE
BENEFICIAL RAIN...BUT IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
CAUSING WINDS TO BE EASTERLY AND COOL ACROSS KANSAS. CURRENTLY
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOIST EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES AFTER 03-06Z. A SECONDARY
CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE POSSIBLY IMPACTING TAF SITES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  88  68  89 /  20  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      66  87  67  89 /  20  20  10   0
NEWTON          65  85  66  87 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        66  86  67  88 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  87  68  87 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELL         65  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      64  88  67  89 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          66  85  67  90 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  85  66  88 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  84  66  86 /  40  30  10  10
CHANUTE         66  81  65  86 /  40  30  10  10
IOLA            65  79  65  85 /  40  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  66  86 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 172016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE HIGH
CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS AFTERNOON
WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED, SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY.
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPSLOPE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR
FOG WILL BE NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM
FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
INCOMING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLE HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  66  86 /   0   0   0  50
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  50
EHA  60  86  64  82 /   0   0  10  50
LBL  63  90  65  84 /   0   0   0  50
HYS  65  83  66  88 /  20  20   0  30
P28  68  91  68  87 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 172016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE HIGH
CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS AFTERNOON
WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED, SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY.
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPSLOPE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR
FOG WILL BE NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM
FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
INCOMING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLE HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  66  86 /   0   0   0  50
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  50
EHA  60  86  64  82 /   0   0  10  50
LBL  63  90  65  84 /   0   0   0  50
HYS  65  83  66  88 /  20  20   0  30
P28  68  91  68  87 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 172016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE HIGH
CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS AFTERNOON
WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED, SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY.
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPSLOPE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR
FOG WILL BE NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM
FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
INCOMING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLE HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  66  86 /   0   0   0  50
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  50
EHA  60  86  64  82 /   0   0  10  50
LBL  63  90  65  84 /   0   0   0  50
HYS  65  83  66  88 /  20  20   0  30
P28  68  91  68  87 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 172016
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE REMAINS A FIXTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SOME OF THE HIGH
CIRRUS FROM THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS OVERSPREADING FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS, BUT HAD ESSENTIALLY NO IMPACT ON THE VIGOROUS AFTERNOON
WARMUP INTO THE 90S. AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMED, SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE. WE WILL CARRY SOME 15-20 POPS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM HAMILTON TO SCOTT COUNTY.
NEGLIGIBLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PREVENT UPSCALE GROWTH. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT
BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 66-69F RANGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AND THE WEAK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
UPSLOPE LIFT TO GENERATE SOME FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BEST AREA FOR
FOG WILL BE NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO JETMORE TO PRATT LINE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE 09-14Z TIME FRAME. WE WILL CARRY AREAS OF 1/2SM
FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
INCOMING SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR WIDER SPREAD DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLE HEADLINE ISSUANCE FOR DENSE FOG.

VISIBILITIES FROM THE MORNING FOG WILL IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL HANG ON THROUGH MIDDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AFFECT THE
WARMUP TOMORROW. HAVE LOWERED THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST, BUT ONCE DIRECT INSOLATION BEGINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY POP PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE 80S,
INCLUDING HAYS. ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERY WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TWO SYSTEMS, BOTH MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN US WILL BE CAPABLE OF
IMPACTING SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM FROM THE BAJA REGION, AS ITS MOISTURE OVERSPREADS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RECENTLY MODELS HAVE TRENDED
MORE TOWARD A SOLUTION BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THESE
SOLUTIONS AND BEING WEIGHTED AS SUCH WITH RESPECT TO OFFICIAL
FORECAST PROBABILITIES. ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR CONSIDERABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AN THICK CLOUDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE
INCLUDED BY SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 70S
IN THE AFTERNOON (FAVORING MODELS OVER MOS).

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN INTO AN
EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES BY MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO
KANSAS FROM THE RED RIVER REGION, RESULTING IN AT LEAST DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR STORMS ALONG ANY CONVERGENCE ZONE, FRONTS, OR LEAD
SHORTWAVE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  66  86 /   0   0   0  50
GCK  61  91  65  85 /  20   0   0  50
EHA  60  86  64  82 /   0   0  10  50
LBL  63  90  65  84 /   0   0   0  50
HYS  65  83  66  88 /  20  20   0  30
P28  68  91  68  87 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KGLD 172000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL AREA DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE.

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CONTINUES
ACROSS THE KMCK AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KMCK AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NC KANSAS INTO SW NEBRASKA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND IMPACT ON KMCK
TERMINAL WITH BETTER COVERAGE SEEN FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE TERMINAL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DLF



000
FXUS63 KGLD 172000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL AREA DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE.

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CONTINUES
ACROSS THE KMCK AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KMCK AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NC KANSAS INTO SW NEBRASKA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND IMPACT ON KMCK
TERMINAL WITH BETTER COVERAGE SEEN FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE TERMINAL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 171943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL AREA DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE.

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CONTINUES
ACROSS THE KMCK AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KMCK AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NC KANSAS INTO SW NEBRASKA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND IMPACT ON KMCK
TERMINAL WITH BETTER COVERAGE SEEN FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE TERMINAL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KGLD 171943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL AREA DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE.

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CONTINUES
ACROSS THE KMCK AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KMCK AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NC KANSAS INTO SW NEBRASKA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND IMPACT ON KMCK
TERMINAL WITH BETTER COVERAGE SEEN FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE TERMINAL.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...DLF



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171820
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE
FOR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OBS/REPORTS SHOWING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LESS PROMPTING ISSUANCE THRU APPROX
15Z. SOME ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. DOWN CLOSER TO SURFACE
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS PUSHING
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AS EVIDENT IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. LEE-SIDE TROUGH COMING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION...WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING 925/850 ENHANCEMENT OF SAID TROUGH.

BEFORE THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...THE CWA IS
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY. GENERAL SSW FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. SOME MID/HIGH CLDS
COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF ODILE REMNANTS....AND THUS COULD HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE COMBO OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ITS
850/925 COMPONENTS PUSH WELL INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SSW. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A BAND OF -RW/-
TRW TO START UP ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIDE/PIVOT A
BIT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF REGION DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO BROAD NW FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE IN ROCKIES...BUT IT IS THE SLOW SFC
NUDGE EASTWARD OF ODILE LOW THAT WILL ALLOW BRIEF PIVOT WEST THEN
BACK EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCALES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL AREA DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE.

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CONTINUES
ACROSS THE KMCK AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KMCK AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NC KANSAS INTO SW NEBRASKA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND IMPACT ON KMCK
TERMINAL WITH BETTER COVERAGE SEEN FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE TERMINAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...DLF



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171820
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE
FOR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OBS/REPORTS SHOWING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LESS PROMPTING ISSUANCE THRU APPROX
15Z. SOME ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. DOWN CLOSER TO SURFACE
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS PUSHING
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AS EVIDENT IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. LEE-SIDE TROUGH COMING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION...WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING 925/850 ENHANCEMENT OF SAID TROUGH.

BEFORE THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...THE CWA IS
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY. GENERAL SSW FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. SOME MID/HIGH CLDS
COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF ODILE REMNANTS....AND THUS COULD HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE COMBO OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ITS
850/925 COMPONENTS PUSH WELL INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SSW. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A BAND OF -RW/-
TRW TO START UP ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIDE/PIVOT A
BIT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF REGION DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO BROAD NW FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE IN ROCKIES...BUT IT IS THE SLOW SFC
NUDGE EASTWARD OF ODILE LOW THAT WILL ALLOW BRIEF PIVOT WEST THEN
BACK EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCALES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...THE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL AREA DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE.

MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S CONTINUES
ACROSS THE KMCK AREA. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND DENSE FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KMCK AFTER AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NC KANSAS INTO SW NEBRASKA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO LOCATION AND IMPACT ON KMCK
TERMINAL WITH BETTER COVERAGE SEEN FURTHER EAST. CONVECTION WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR
THE TERMINAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...DLF




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171757
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  64  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  93  61  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  90  60  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  63  90  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  85  65  83  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  68  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 171757
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  64  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  93  61  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  90  60  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  63  90  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  85  65  83  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  68  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 171757
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  64  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  93  61  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  90  60  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  63  90  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  85  65  83  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  68  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 171757
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR
SOUTH AND WEST THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HYS WILL SEE SOME DENSE FOG
AND LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD IN THE 09-15Z
TIME FRAME. DDC WILL BE CLOSE, AND WILL ONLY GO AS LOW AS 3SM BR
FOR NOW, BUT DENSE FOG IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AT DDC AS WELL CENTERED
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  64  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  93  61  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  90  60  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  63  90  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  85  65  83  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  68  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KTOP 171726
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z time frame. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The terminals are expected to remain within a northeast to
easterly low level flow through the period with little or no dry
air advection at the surface. Confidence in when the stratus will
burn off is marginal, but there are signs from satellite and
recent obs that it is starting to erode. Initally based the timing
of improvements to CIGS on the RAP forecast soundings but adjusted
them to hold onto the CIGS slightly longer since there seems to be
a expansive deck of clouds still to the east and northeast.
Models have backed off on elevated precip overnight. Think this
may be due to some dry air in the 900MB to 700MB layer seen in the
isentropic surfaces. With models shearing out the upstream
vorticity or keeping the vort max to the northeast of the
terminals, think it is more likely to remain dry overnight at the
terminals and will not insert a mention of precip at this time.
MOS guidance also wants to redevelop fog (possibly dense) for
Thursday morning. However forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM
suggest any moisture will be very shallow and that 925MB winds of
15 to 20KT should keep some dry air mixing into the boundary layer
through the night. Additionally models show some possible mid
level clouds moving overhead limiting the radiational effects for
ground fog. Because of this, I`m not ready to put IFR VSBY in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 171726
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z time frame. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The terminals are expected to remain within a northeast to
easterly low level flow through the period with little or no dry
air advection at the surface. Confidence in when the stratus will
burn off is marginal, but there are signs from satellite and
recent obs that it is starting to erode. Initally based the timing
of improvements to CIGS on the RAP forecast soundings but adjusted
them to hold onto the CIGS slightly longer since there seems to be
a expansive deck of clouds still to the east and northeast.
Models have backed off on elevated precip overnight. Think this
may be due to some dry air in the 900MB to 700MB layer seen in the
isentropic surfaces. With models shearing out the upstream
vorticity or keeping the vort max to the northeast of the
terminals, think it is more likely to remain dry overnight at the
terminals and will not insert a mention of precip at this time.
MOS guidance also wants to redevelop fog (possibly dense) for
Thursday morning. However forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM
suggest any moisture will be very shallow and that 925MB winds of
15 to 20KT should keep some dry air mixing into the boundary layer
through the night. Additionally models show some possible mid
level clouds moving overhead limiting the radiational effects for
ground fog. Because of this, I`m not ready to put IFR VSBY in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KICT 171718
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS OF EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS.
THINKING MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OUT OF KANSAS BY MID-
MORNING. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PEA-DIME SIZE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ITSELF SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEING REINFORCED ALSO BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM FURTHER
NORTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL KS. STRENGTHENING WEAK- MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT MAY ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR
FESTER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT...GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-IN-ALL...DESPITE STRONGER
500-300MB FLOW...WEAK 700MB FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING MAY APPROACH LOW-END SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN STOUT
INSTABILITY. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT MAY ALLOW A FEW STRAY STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALONG WITH BOUNDARY WASHING OUT COMPLETELY WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY ALL AREAS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. READINGS TODAY COULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

STILL LOOKING LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN COMING IN MUCH SLOWER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GEM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
AVOID MAJOR CHANGES...KEEPING BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIPITATION
WOULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. ALL- IN-ALL...TROPICAL CONNECTION
AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD TEMPER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. RAIN-COOLED
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOIST EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES AFTER 03-06Z. A SECONDARY
CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE POSSIBLY IMPACTING TAF SITES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  67  88  69 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      91  66  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
ELDORADO        89  66  86  69 /  20  30  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  68  88  70 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         89  65  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  64  89  68 /  10  20   0  10
SALINA          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       89  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  86  67 /  30  40  30  10
CHANUTE         86  66  83  67 /  30  40  30  10
IOLA            85  66  82  66 /  30  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  85  67 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 171718
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS OF EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS.
THINKING MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OUT OF KANSAS BY MID-
MORNING. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PEA-DIME SIZE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ITSELF SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEING REINFORCED ALSO BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM FURTHER
NORTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL KS. STRENGTHENING WEAK- MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT MAY ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR
FESTER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT...GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-IN-ALL...DESPITE STRONGER
500-300MB FLOW...WEAK 700MB FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING MAY APPROACH LOW-END SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN STOUT
INSTABILITY. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT MAY ALLOW A FEW STRAY STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALONG WITH BOUNDARY WASHING OUT COMPLETELY WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY ALL AREAS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. READINGS TODAY COULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

STILL LOOKING LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN COMING IN MUCH SLOWER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GEM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
AVOID MAJOR CHANGES...KEEPING BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIPITATION
WOULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. ALL- IN-ALL...TROPICAL CONNECTION
AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD TEMPER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. RAIN-COOLED
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOIST EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES AFTER 03-06Z. A SECONDARY
CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE POSSIBLY IMPACTING TAF SITES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  67  88  69 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      91  66  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
ELDORADO        89  66  86  69 /  20  30  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  68  88  70 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         89  65  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  64  89  68 /  10  20   0  10
SALINA          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       89  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  86  67 /  30  40  30  10
CHANUTE         86  66  83  67 /  30  40  30  10
IOLA            85  66  82  66 /  30  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  85  67 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 171718
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS OF EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS.
THINKING MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OUT OF KANSAS BY MID-
MORNING. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PEA-DIME SIZE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ITSELF SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEING REINFORCED ALSO BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM FURTHER
NORTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL KS. STRENGTHENING WEAK- MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT MAY ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR
FESTER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT...GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-IN-ALL...DESPITE STRONGER
500-300MB FLOW...WEAK 700MB FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING MAY APPROACH LOW-END SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN STOUT
INSTABILITY. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT MAY ALLOW A FEW STRAY STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALONG WITH BOUNDARY WASHING OUT COMPLETELY WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY ALL AREAS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. READINGS TODAY COULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

STILL LOOKING LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN COMING IN MUCH SLOWER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GEM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
AVOID MAJOR CHANGES...KEEPING BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIPITATION
WOULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. ALL- IN-ALL...TROPICAL CONNECTION
AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD TEMPER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. RAIN-COOLED
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOIST EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES AFTER 03-06Z. A SECONDARY
CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE POSSIBLY IMPACTING TAF SITES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  67  88  69 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      91  66  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
ELDORADO        89  66  86  69 /  20  30  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  68  88  70 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         89  65  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  64  89  68 /  10  20   0  10
SALINA          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       89  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  86  67 /  30  40  30  10
CHANUTE         86  66  83  67 /  30  40  30  10
IOLA            85  66  82  66 /  30  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  85  67 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 171718
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS OF EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS.
THINKING MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OUT OF KANSAS BY MID-
MORNING. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PEA-DIME SIZE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ITSELF SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEING REINFORCED ALSO BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM FURTHER
NORTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL KS. STRENGTHENING WEAK- MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT MAY ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR
FESTER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT...GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-IN-ALL...DESPITE STRONGER
500-300MB FLOW...WEAK 700MB FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING MAY APPROACH LOW-END SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN STOUT
INSTABILITY. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT MAY ALLOW A FEW STRAY STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALONG WITH BOUNDARY WASHING OUT COMPLETELY WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY ALL AREAS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. READINGS TODAY COULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

STILL LOOKING LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN COMING IN MUCH SLOWER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GEM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
AVOID MAJOR CHANGES...KEEPING BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIPITATION
WOULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. ALL- IN-ALL...TROPICAL CONNECTION
AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD TEMPER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. RAIN-COOLED
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOIST EASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES AFTER 03-06Z. A SECONDARY
CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE POSSIBLY IMPACTING TAF SITES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY AS POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  67  88  69 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      91  66  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
ELDORADO        89  66  86  69 /  20  30  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  68  88  70 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         89  65  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  64  89  68 /  10  20   0  10
SALINA          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       89  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  86  67 /  30  40  30  10
CHANUTE         86  66  83  67 /  30  40  30  10
IOLA            85  66  82  66 /  30  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  85  67 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 171135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS OF EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS.
THINKING MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OUT OF KANSAS BY MID-
MORNING. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PEA-DIME SIZE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ITSELF SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEING REINFORCED ALSO BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM FURTHER
NORTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL KS. STRENGTHENING WEAK- MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT MAY ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR
FESTER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT...GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-IN-ALL...DESPITE STRONGER
500-300MB FLOW...WEAK 700MB FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING MAY APPROACH LOW-END SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN STOUT
INSTABILITY. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT MAY ALLOW A FEW STRAY STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALONG WITH BOUNDARY WASHING OUT COMPLETELY WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY ALL AREAS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. READINGS TODAY COULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

STILL LOOKING LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN COMING IN MUCH SLOWER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GEM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
AVOID MAJOR CHANGES...KEEPING BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIPITATION
WOULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. ALL- IN-ALL...TROPICAL CONNECTION
AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD TEMPER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. RAIN-COOLED
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CIGS AND FOG THIS MORNING.

POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES AROUND 3SM DEVELOPED A FEW
HOURS AGO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT WIDESPREAD WITH ONE AREA OVER
FAR SE KS AND ANOTHER GENERALLY ALONG I-135. AS SURFACE WINDS
START TO VEER THIS MORNING...THESE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
QUICKLY PUSH EAST AND BY 15Z...MOST SITES SHOULD BE ABOVE IFR
LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS NORTHERN KS
AND WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  67  88  69 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      91  66  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
ELDORADO        89  66  86  69 /  20  30  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  68  88  70 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         89  65  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  64  89  68 /  10  20   0  10
SALINA          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       89  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  86  67 /  30  40  30  10
CHANUTE         86  66  83  67 /  30  40  30  10
IOLA            85  66  82  66 /  30  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  85  67 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 171133
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE
FOR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OBS/REPORTS SHOWING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LESS PROMPTING ISSUANCE THRU APPROX
15Z. SOME ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. DOWN CLOSER TO SURFACE
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS PUSHING
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AS EVIDENT IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. LEE-SIDE TROUGH COMING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION...WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING 925/850 ENHANCEMENT OF SAID TROUGH.

BEFORE THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...THE CWA IS
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY. GENERAL SSW FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. SOME MID/HIGH CLDS
COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF ODILE REMNANTS....AND THUS COULD HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE COMBO OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ITS
850/925 COMPONENTS PUSH WELL INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SSW. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A BAND OF -RW/-
TRW TO START UP ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIDE/PIVOT A
BIT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF REGION DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO BROAD NW FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE IN ROCKIES...BUT IT IS THE SLOW SFC
NUDGE EASTWARD OF ODILE LOW THAT WILL ALLOW BRIEF PIVOT WEST THEN
BACK EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCALES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGLD THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC BECOMING
SCT200 BY MIDDAY. WSW WINDS 5-10KTS BECM SSW 5-10KTS BY 19Z. FOR
KMCK...MVFR/IFR FOG THRU 15Z WITH 1-3SM AT TIMES...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 06Z THURS...THEN MVFR FOG DEVELOPING. WINDS
VRB05KT THRU MIDDAY THEN VARYING FROM SE TO ENE 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
     015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 171133
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
533 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE
FOR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OBS/REPORTS SHOWING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LESS PROMPTING ISSUANCE THRU APPROX
15Z. SOME ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. DOWN CLOSER TO SURFACE
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS PUSHING
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AS EVIDENT IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. LEE-SIDE TROUGH COMING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION...WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING 925/850 ENHANCEMENT OF SAID TROUGH.

BEFORE THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...THE CWA IS
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY. GENERAL SSW FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. SOME MID/HIGH CLDS
COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF ODILE REMNANTS....AND THUS COULD HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE COMBO OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ITS
850/925 COMPONENTS PUSH WELL INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SSW. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A BAND OF -RW/-
TRW TO START UP ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIDE/PIVOT A
BIT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF REGION DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO BROAD NW FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE IN ROCKIES...BUT IT IS THE SLOW SFC
NUDGE EASTWARD OF ODILE LOW THAT WILL ALLOW BRIEF PIVOT WEST THEN
BACK EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCALES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR KGLD THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKC BECOMING
SCT200 BY MIDDAY. WSW WINDS 5-10KTS BECM SSW 5-10KTS BY 19Z. FOR
KMCK...MVFR/IFR FOG THRU 15Z WITH 1-3SM AT TIMES...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU 06Z THURS...THEN MVFR FOG DEVELOPING. WINDS
VRB05KT THRU MIDDAY THEN VARYING FROM SE TO ENE 5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
     015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 171130
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Borderline IFR stratus has advected into the area from south
central KS in response to a warm front lifting northward. The
visibilities are borderline MVFR although do not expect them to
drop any further. The main challenge with this issuance is timing
on when the stratus and fog will lift. There is a slight chance
this stratus deck could linger into the afternoon hours. After
sunset scattered thunderstorms and fog could develop again but too
much uncertainty to add any details.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders






000
FXUS63 KTOP 171130
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Borderline IFR stratus has advected into the area from south
central KS in response to a warm front lifting northward. The
visibilities are borderline MVFR although do not expect them to
drop any further. The main challenge with this issuance is timing
on when the stratus and fog will lift. There is a slight chance
this stratus deck could linger into the afternoon hours. After
sunset scattered thunderstorms and fog could develop again but too
much uncertainty to add any details.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Sanders







000
FXUS63 KGLD 171128
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
528 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE
FOR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OBS/REPORTS SHOWING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LESS PROMPTING ISSUANCE THRU APPROX
15Z. SOME ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. DOWN CLOSER TO SURFACE
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS PUSHING
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AS EVIDENT IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. LEE-SIDE TROUGH COMING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION...WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING 925/850 ENHANCEMENT OF SAID TROUGH.

BEFORE THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...THE CWA IS
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY. GENERAL SSW FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. SOME MID/HIGH CLDS
COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF ODILE REMNANTS....AND THUS COULD HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE COMBO OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ITS
850/925 COMPONENTS PUSH WELL INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SSW. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A BAND OF -RW/-
TRW TO START UP ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIDE/PIVOT A
BIT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF REGION DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO BROAD NW FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE IN ROCKIES...BUT IT IS THE SLOW SFC
NUDGE EASTWARD OF ODILE LOW THAT WILL ALLOW BRIEF PIVOT WEST THEN
BACK EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCALES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST LOW VIS/CEILINGS FOR THE MORNING AT KMCK.
AM STILL HESITANT TO GO MUCH BELOW MVFR DUE TO PERSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MVFR.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE THAN
IFR WHICH ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGHIFR
SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN MVFR FOR THE VIS. IN THE CLIMATOLOGY.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
     015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 171128
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
528 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE
FOR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. OBS/REPORTS SHOWING
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2SM OR LESS PROMPTING ISSUANCE THRU APPROX
15Z. SOME ADJUSTMENTS ALSO MADE TO TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HOURLIES.
REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. DOWN CLOSER TO SURFACE
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS PUSHING
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AS EVIDENT IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. LEE-SIDE TROUGH COMING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION...WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING 925/850 ENHANCEMENT OF SAID TROUGH.

BEFORE THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...THE CWA IS
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY. GENERAL SSW FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. SOME MID/HIGH CLDS
COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF ODILE REMNANTS....AND THUS COULD HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE COMBO OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ITS
850/925 COMPONENTS PUSH WELL INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SSW. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A BAND OF -RW/-
TRW TO START UP ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIDE/PIVOT A
BIT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF REGION DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO BROAD NW FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE IN ROCKIES...BUT IT IS THE SLOW SFC
NUDGE EASTWARD OF ODILE LOW THAT WILL ALLOW BRIEF PIVOT WEST THEN
BACK EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCALES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST LOW VIS/CEILINGS FOR THE MORNING AT KMCK.
AM STILL HESITANT TO GO MUCH BELOW MVFR DUE TO PERSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MVFR.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE THAN
IFR WHICH ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGHIFR
SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN MVFR FOR THE VIS. IN THE CLIMATOLOGY.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ002>004-
     015-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ080-081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 171102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS MAY THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KHYS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ATTENDANT TO THE
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 171102
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS MAY THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KHYS AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ATTENDANT TO THE
SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KGLD 170850
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. DOWN CLOSER TO SURFACE
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS PUSHING
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AS EVIDENT IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. LEE-SIDE TROUGH COMING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION...WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING 925/850 ENHANCEMENT OF SAID TROUGH.

BEFORE THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...THE CWA IS
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY. GENERAL SSW FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. SOME MID/HIGH CLDS
COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF ODILE REMNANTS....AND THUS COULD HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE COMBO OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ITS
850/925 COMPONENTS PUSH WELL INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SSW. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A BAND OF -RW/-
TRW TO START UP ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIDE/PIVOT A
BIT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF REGION DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO BROAD NW FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE IN ROCKIES...BUT IT IS THE SLOW SFC
NUDGE EASTWARD OF ODILE LOW THAT WILL ALLOW BRIEF PIVOT WEST THEN
BACK EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCALES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST LOW VIS/CEILINGS FOR THE MORNING AT KMCK.
AM STILL HESITANT TO GO MUCH BELOW MVFR DUE TO PERSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MVFR.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE THAN
IFR WHICH ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGHIFR
SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN MVFR FOR THE VIS. IN THE CLIMATOLOGY.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 170850
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. DOWN CLOSER TO SURFACE
CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO THE EAST OF THE TRI STATE
REGION...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE IS PUSHING
INTO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE UNITED STATES AS EVIDENT IN
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. LEE-SIDE TROUGH COMING THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION...WITH
MODELS STILL SHOWING 925/850 ENHANCEMENT OF SAID TROUGH.

BEFORE THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...THE CWA IS
SEEING TEMPS IN THE MID 50S WITH AREAS OF FOG OVER EASTERN ZONES
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM AND SUNNY/MSUNNY DAY. GENERAL SSW FLOW WILL
BRING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. SOME MID/HIGH CLDS
COULD BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FROM THE OUTER EDGE OF ODILE REMNANTS....AND THUS COULD HOLD TEMPS
DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...THE COMBO OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND ITS
850/925 COMPONENTS PUSH WELL INTO THE TRI STATE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE
ODILE REMNANTS TO OUR SSW. THIS WILL ALL RESULT IN A BAND OF -RW/-
TRW TO START UP ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SLIDE/PIVOT A
BIT WESTWARD OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE FROM ODILE SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF REGION DURING THIS TIME DUE
TO BROAD NW FLOW OF UPPER RIDGE IN ROCKIES...BUT IT IS THE SLOW SFC
NUDGE EASTWARD OF ODILE LOW THAT WILL ALLOW BRIEF PIVOT WEST THEN
BACK EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS REGION.
LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. SOME
PATCHY/AREAS FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCALES CLOSEST TO EXPECTED
PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SOME REMNANTS SHOWERS
AND FOG ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE REGION.
UPPER RIDGE THEN SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY
CONTINUING THE WARM TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THURSDAY AFTER PRECIP/CLDS CLR REGION
WILL BE DECENT SUMMER-LIKE DAY...AND TRANSLATE INTO A WARM
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS MAIN WX FEATURE. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS DO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RW/TRW TO
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN EASTERN/SOUTHERN
ZONES CLOSEST TO ODILE REMNANTS...DUE TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INTO
THE MID 60S...WARMEST EAST.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IS RATHER HIGH TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN DISCREPANCIES
WITHIN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
MOVES THE SYSTEM ALONG FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON TUESDAY BUT THE TYPICAL LOW PREDICTABILITY
WITH THESE TYPE SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT MEANS THAT ADJUSTMENTS WILL MAY
BE NEEDED. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE IS THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
A COLD FRONT/SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY DOWN CLOSER TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST RUNS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/WARMTH LOOKS TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
TOWARD TUESDAY SO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST LOW VIS/CEILINGS FOR THE MORNING AT KMCK.
AM STILL HESITANT TO GO MUCH BELOW MVFR DUE TO PERSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MVFR.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE THAN
IFR WHICH ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGHIFR
SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN MVFR FOR THE VIS. IN THE CLIMATOLOGY.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KTOP 170826
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Will see periods of MVFR cigs between 06Z-09Z with more widespread
MVFR cigs after 09Z. An area of TS is still likely to develop
between 08Z-11Z, and more likely to impact TOP/FOE than MHK.
Ceilings will continue to lower through 14Z, with a period of
likely IFR cigs (and possibly IFR vis) focused between 12Z-16Z.
Should then see a slow increase in ceiling heights followed by
scattering out of the ceiling between 16Z-19Z. Some small
potential for TS by late afternoon, but most indications point to
isolated TS or none at all through 06Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 170826
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Will see periods of MVFR cigs between 06Z-09Z with more widespread
MVFR cigs after 09Z. An area of TS is still likely to develop
between 08Z-11Z, and more likely to impact TOP/FOE than MHK.
Ceilings will continue to lower through 14Z, with a period of
likely IFR cigs (and possibly IFR vis) focused between 12Z-16Z.
Should then see a slow increase in ceiling heights followed by
scattering out of the ceiling between 16Z-19Z. Some small
potential for TS by late afternoon, but most indications point to
isolated TS or none at all through 06Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 170826
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Will see periods of MVFR cigs between 06Z-09Z with more widespread
MVFR cigs after 09Z. An area of TS is still likely to develop
between 08Z-11Z, and more likely to impact TOP/FOE than MHK.
Ceilings will continue to lower through 14Z, with a period of
likely IFR cigs (and possibly IFR vis) focused between 12Z-16Z.
Should then see a slow increase in ceiling heights followed by
scattering out of the ceiling between 16Z-19Z. Some small
potential for TS by late afternoon, but most indications point to
isolated TS or none at all through 06Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 170826
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
326 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

The low level jet has becomes focused directly over the forecast
area and showers/storms are now developing in response to the
isentropic lift. The instability above this lift is around 1000 j/kg
with effective bulk shear near 40 kt. Given the environment can not
rule out a storm capable of producing hail likely under quarter
sized. Expect this activity to increase in coverage as it moves
eastward the next few hours. The low level jet will continue to veer
as it noses more into western MO and isentropic lift becomes better
focused there. A majority of this morning activity should stay
mainly south of interstate 70, and clear out of the area around
sunrise or shortly after. Short term models are suggesting a
potential for fog centered around sunrise especially in north
central KS. Soundings show that any fog and low level stratus will
begin to lift and scatter out from west to east. There are some
indications that the stratus could hold on longer in spots across
east central KS into the afternoon hours. By the afternoon a warm
front should be located from near Salina to Emporia or just south of
there. This is where the cap is weak and surface convergence is
present. The only limiting factor will be no mid/upper level support
to enhance the lift. With steep mid level lapse rates in place the
surface based cape will approach 3500 j/kg. Hodographs will also be
impressive with decent turning with height within the northwest flow
aloft and southerly surface flow. Deep layer shear of 35 to 40 kt
means any storm that is able to develop near the front could quickly
become strong to severe around the 21-01Z timeframe. Have kept
slight chances along the southern border of the forecast area
through the evening hours. Further north of the front stratus tries
to linger as a fairly strong cap remains in place so do not expect
any development in those areas. Later in the evening the front
retreats south of the area and southerly flow increases over the
stable air mass. Elevated convection will again be possible, which
should hold off until around 03-06Z. This mornings temperatures will
remain steady with the expansive cloud cover. Highs today should
reach the mid to upper 80s in central KS, and low 80s in northeast
KS if the clouds lift as forecasted.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

Thursday, scattered to isolated elevated thunderstorms will be
ongoing into the morning hours across the eastern and southern
counties of the the CWA. An upper level ridge across the high plains
will amplify through day. A stronger EML will overspread the area by
Thursday afternoon and the elevated thunderstorms across the
southeast counties should dissipate. Skies will begin to clear from
west to east across the CWA during the afternoon hours. Highs will
vary dependent on afternoon insolation. The southwest counties will
warm into the mid 80s while the eastern counties may keep cloud
cover longer through the afternoon hours and only see highs in the
upper 70s.

Thursday night through Friday night, The upper level ridge axis will
shift east across the central and southern plains into to the the
mid and lower MS river valley by Friday night. The remnants of Odile
will lift northeast around the upper ridge axis across NM into
western KS Friday night. Rain and thunderstorms will slowly spread
northeast across western KS through the night but remain west of the
CWA. Friday highs will be warm with the upper level ridge across the
southern and central plains. Highs Friday afternoon will reach the
mid to upper 80s and it will feel more humid with deeper gulf
moisture in place.

Saturday into Saturday Night, The remnants of Odile will begin to
phase with an upper level trough digging southeast across the
northern plains and upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase from west to east across the CWA during the day on
Saturday. The 6Z run of the ECMWF is slower and would bring the
heaviest rain across the CWA Saturday night. The GFS and GEM models
are more progressive in the speed of the upper trough digging
southeast across the northern plains into the upper Midwest. Both
models show the remnants of Odile remaining south of the CWA across
OK and southern KS. ATTM, I`m leaning more towards the ECMWF which
will phase the remnants of Odile with the the northern plains H5
trough during the late afternoon hours across central KS then move
both systems east-southeast across eastern KS during the evening
hours. The ECMWF forecast QPF of 1 to 3 inches rainfall Saturday
into Sunday along and south of I-70, with only a quarter inch of
QPF along the NE border. The other operational models keep the
heavier rainfall south of the CWA with half inch of QPF south of
I-70 and only about a tenth of an inch of rainfall across the
northern counties of the CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday, If the 6Z ECMWF solution verifies
the rain and thunderstorms may continue through the morning hours
of Sunday but should end by Sunday afternoon. It looks dry into
early next week, as the H5 trough across the upper Midwest digs
southeast into the Great Lakes and amplifies. The coldest airmass
will remain east of the CWA. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s with overnight lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Will see periods of MVFR cigs between 06Z-09Z with more widespread
MVFR cigs after 09Z. An area of TS is still likely to develop
between 08Z-11Z, and more likely to impact TOP/FOE than MHK.
Ceilings will continue to lower through 14Z, with a period of
likely IFR cigs (and possibly IFR vis) focused between 12Z-16Z.
Should then see a slow increase in ceiling heights followed by
scattering out of the ceiling between 16Z-19Z. Some small
potential for TS by late afternoon, but most indications point to
isolated TS or none at all through 06Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KICT 170822
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS OF EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KS.
THINKING MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL EXIT EAST OUT OF KANSAS BY MID-
MORNING. GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO...THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PEA-DIME SIZE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ITSELF SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BEING REINFORCED ALSO BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY...BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM FURTHER
NORTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL KS. STRENGTHENING WEAK- MODEST LOW-LEVEL
JET TONIGHT MAY ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP AND/OR
FESTER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT...GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-IN-ALL...DESPITE STRONGER
500-300MB FLOW...WEAK 700MB FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING MAY APPROACH LOW-END SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN STOUT
INSTABILITY. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO WASH OUT MAY ALLOW A FEW STRAY STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG/EAST OF I-135...ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALONG WITH BOUNDARY WASHING OUT COMPLETELY WILL RESULT
IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY ALL AREAS.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. READINGS TODAY COULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

STILL LOOKING LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF RUN COMING IN MUCH SLOWER THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALONG WITH THE LATEST GEM AND GFS. FOR NOW...WILL
AVOID MAJOR CHANGES...KEEPING BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY PRECIPITATION
WOULD LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY. ALL- IN-ALL...TROPICAL CONNECTION
AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES
SHOULD TEMPER STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. RAIN-COOLED
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED COOL POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR...BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN KSLN AND KCNU WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER...THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS CIGS LATER TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  67  88  69 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      91  66  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
ELDORADO        89  66  86  69 /  20  30  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  68  88  70 /  10  20  20  10
RUSSELL         89  65  88  69 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      90  64  89  68 /  10  20   0  10
SALINA          88  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       89  66  87  69 /  20  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     88  67  86  67 /  30  40  30  10
CHANUTE         86  66  83  67 /  30  40  30  10
IOLA            85  66  82  66 /  30  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    87  66  85  67 /  30  40  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KDDC 170813
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170813
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170813
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170813
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ODILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LIFTING FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY PUSHING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES,
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS
WITHIN A SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW RAISING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL
UP INTO THE 60S(F). ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED VERTICAL PROFILES, ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL EXIST IN THE FORM OF A STRENGTHENING
JET, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING PW VALUES UP AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE
EAST WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY AS A
PREVAILING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL REINFORCE
THE WARM AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RESULTING
IN HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S(F) TO THE LOWER 90S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE SPREAD NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY UP INTO THE 80S(F) FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF PRECIP LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
80S(F).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  66 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  65 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  64 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  93  64  92  65 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  66 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  68 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170640
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  67 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  65 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  93  64  92  66 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  67 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  69 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170640
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
140 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA, IN THE VICINITY
OF HAYS.  THAT FRONT SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO MUCH TODAY, AND WARM AIR
WILL FLOW IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z OR SO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG IN THE HYS AREA THIS MORNING, NEAR THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE OF THE FRONT. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONCERN ABOUT
THIS FOG TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THAT SAID, THE NAM40 AND
GFS MODELS BOTH BRING IN A 21.5C ISOTHERM TO THE WAKEENEY AND
HAYS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, AND AS HIGH AS 29.0C IN OUR WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME VERY WARM MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM 90F DEGREES NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO THE 93F
DEGREE RANGE IN THE ELKHART AND LIBERAL AREAS.  WINDS WILL NOT
GET TOO STRONG, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BLOW AT 10 TO 20 MPH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONVERGE NEAR THE LEFTOVER SURFACE BOUNDARY IN OUR
EAST, BASICALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.  ONLY 20 POPS WILL EXIST FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND WILL BE IN PLACE AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AT
10 TO 12 MPH, AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AT 7 TO
10 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY FROM 61F TO 64F, BEING
THE WARMEST IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  63  90  67 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  94  62  91  66 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  93  62  90  65 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  93  64  92  66 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  90  63  89  67 /   0  20   0   0
P28  93  63  91  69 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE



000
FXUS63 KGLD 170558
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 3 MORNINGS WHEN MODELS WERE FORECASTING
FOG...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE AREA/COVERAGE OF FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. DID KEEP A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
WHERE THE SREF HAS ATLEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF LESS THAN
A MILE VISIBILITY. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS TIME ABOUT
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BUT WILL SEE HOW THE
NIGHT GOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LEOTI LINE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AS
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST LOW VIS/CEILINGS FOR THE MORNING AT KMCK.
AM STILL HESITANT TO GO MUCH BELOW MVFR DUE TO PERSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MVFR.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE THAN
IFR WHICH ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGHIFR
SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN MVFR FOR THE VIS. IN THE CLIMATOLOGY.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 170558
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1158 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 3 MORNINGS WHEN MODELS WERE FORECASTING
FOG...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE AREA/COVERAGE OF FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. DID KEEP A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
WHERE THE SREF HAS ATLEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF LESS THAN
A MILE VISIBILITY. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS TIME ABOUT
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BUT WILL SEE HOW THE
NIGHT GOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LEOTI LINE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO CONTINUE
TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST AS
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST LOW VIS/CEILINGS FOR THE MORNING AT KMCK.
AM STILL HESITANT TO GO MUCH BELOW MVFR DUE TO PERSISTENT FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER END OF MVFR.
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROBABLE THAN
IFR WHICH ADDS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGHIFR
SLIGHTLY MORE LIKELY THAN MVFR FOR THE VIS. IN THE CLIMATOLOGY.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF WINDOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 170526
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  90  67  87 /  10   0   0  20
GCK  62  91  66  87 /  10   0   0  20
EHA  62  90  65  86 /  10   0   0  30
LBL  64  92  66  87 /  10   0   0  20
HYS  63  89  67  87 /  20   0   0  10
P28  63  91  69  88 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE



000
FXUS63 KDDC 170526
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1226 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD-FREE SKIES
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN THE KHYS TAF SITE, THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST AFT 15Z, AND BLOW AT AROUND 11 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  90  67  87 /  10   0   0  20
GCK  62  91  66  87 /  10   0   0  20
EHA  62  90  65  86 /  10   0   0  30
LBL  64  92  66  87 /  10   0   0  20
HYS  63  89  67  87 /  20   0   0  10
P28  63  91  69  88 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 170503
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies across the eastern counties have brought high
temperatures into the lower 70s while far west has been a few
degrees cooler as clouds move in. Dewpoints in the 40s this morning
have risen to the lower 50s for much of eastern Kansas.

For tonight, isentropic lift develops over the eastern half of the
area near the 305K surface. Appears at this time to maximize over
eastern or east Central counties after 06z.  Will start with
slights everywhere but think parcels will need to lift northeast
before isolated storms can form.  Soundings near Emporia and the
Flint Hills refuge carry more CAPE and less mid level capping than
northward locales, reaching around 2000j/kg for a time.  Shear
remains low, however a quickly developing updraft into steep lapse
rates aloft could produce some hail as they develop.  Will focus
some low end chance pops over the east, overnight lows in the 50s.
For Wednesday, surface low over western Kansas slowly develops and
extends surface warm front eastward into the forecast area, and
coupled with the mid level front could provide a focus for another
round of isolated storms. Lifting mechanism is not strong, however,
and may have several hours of subsidence behind morning convection
before chances increase.  Again kept more focus eastward and
generally 35 percent or less all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

At least some mention of precipitation is in order into Thursday
with warm front in area and veered wind profiles. Could see
convection from Wednesday reinforce the front for more local
development Wednesday evening, but appears better synoptic isentropic
lift and moisture convergence will be in western and central
Nebraska, with upper flow bringing this southeast into a supportive
environment. Shear amounts and elevated lapse rates still not very
strong, but enough moisture for at moderate CAPE and near-severe hail
possibilities. This convection could easily spill over into Thursday
morning, and along with low level moisture pooled northeast of the
warm front (still expected to be to the southwest), temperatures
could be stubborn to rise. Continue to have low confidence in highs
given aforementioned issues, but have most areas a bit cooler than
Wednesday given more low cloud potential. At this point, boundary
layer winds look too strong for any fog concerns but can`t rule out
some around sunrise drizzle for mainly northeastern locations.  By
late Thursday, should see storm focus shift northeast ahead of next
upper wave with upper heights rising locally and will keep Thursday
night dry. Friday still looking like the most likely dry period
through the late week with highs well into the 80s, though still
some potential problems with morning stratus possibilities.

A wet period from Friday night into Saturday evening still quite
possible as the next cold front makes eastward progress through the
Plains. Surface moisture should be high enough for at least
scattered activity, but main wrench continues to be where the
remnants of Odile will be. Latest GFS and ECMWF keep this to the
south, and could potentially be enough subsidence to its north to
keep widespread precip in check here. At this point kept mid-range
PoPs going as just how Odile and the northern states` upper trough
interact is far from certain. Cooler and drier airmass settles in
for early next week under upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Will see periods of MVFR cigs between 06Z-09Z with more widespread
MVFR cigs after 09Z. An area of TS is still likely to develop
between 08Z-11Z, and more likely to impact TOP/FOE than MHK.
Ceilings will continue to lower through 14Z, with a period of
likely IFR cigs (and possibly IFR vis) focused between 12Z-16Z.
Should then see a slow increase in ceiling heights followed by
scattering out of the ceiling between 16Z-19Z. Some small
potential for TS by late afternoon, but most indications point to
isolated TS or none at all through 06Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 170503
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies across the eastern counties have brought high
temperatures into the lower 70s while far west has been a few
degrees cooler as clouds move in. Dewpoints in the 40s this morning
have risen to the lower 50s for much of eastern Kansas.

For tonight, isentropic lift develops over the eastern half of the
area near the 305K surface. Appears at this time to maximize over
eastern or east Central counties after 06z.  Will start with
slights everywhere but think parcels will need to lift northeast
before isolated storms can form.  Soundings near Emporia and the
Flint Hills refuge carry more CAPE and less mid level capping than
northward locales, reaching around 2000j/kg for a time.  Shear
remains low, however a quickly developing updraft into steep lapse
rates aloft could produce some hail as they develop.  Will focus
some low end chance pops over the east, overnight lows in the 50s.
For Wednesday, surface low over western Kansas slowly develops and
extends surface warm front eastward into the forecast area, and
coupled with the mid level front could provide a focus for another
round of isolated storms. Lifting mechanism is not strong, however,
and may have several hours of subsidence behind morning convection
before chances increase.  Again kept more focus eastward and
generally 35 percent or less all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

At least some mention of precipitation is in order into Thursday
with warm front in area and veered wind profiles. Could see
convection from Wednesday reinforce the front for more local
development Wednesday evening, but appears better synoptic isentropic
lift and moisture convergence will be in western and central
Nebraska, with upper flow bringing this southeast into a supportive
environment. Shear amounts and elevated lapse rates still not very
strong, but enough moisture for at moderate CAPE and near-severe hail
possibilities. This convection could easily spill over into Thursday
morning, and along with low level moisture pooled northeast of the
warm front (still expected to be to the southwest), temperatures
could be stubborn to rise. Continue to have low confidence in highs
given aforementioned issues, but have most areas a bit cooler than
Wednesday given more low cloud potential. At this point, boundary
layer winds look too strong for any fog concerns but can`t rule out
some around sunrise drizzle for mainly northeastern locations.  By
late Thursday, should see storm focus shift northeast ahead of next
upper wave with upper heights rising locally and will keep Thursday
night dry. Friday still looking like the most likely dry period
through the late week with highs well into the 80s, though still
some potential problems with morning stratus possibilities.

A wet period from Friday night into Saturday evening still quite
possible as the next cold front makes eastward progress through the
Plains. Surface moisture should be high enough for at least
scattered activity, but main wrench continues to be where the
remnants of Odile will be. Latest GFS and ECMWF keep this to the
south, and could potentially be enough subsidence to its north to
keep widespread precip in check here. At this point kept mid-range
PoPs going as just how Odile and the northern states` upper trough
interact is far from certain. Cooler and drier airmass settles in
for early next week under upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Will see periods of MVFR cigs between 06Z-09Z with more widespread
MVFR cigs after 09Z. An area of TS is still likely to develop
between 08Z-11Z, and more likely to impact TOP/FOE than MHK.
Ceilings will continue to lower through 14Z, with a period of
likely IFR cigs (and possibly IFR vis) focused between 12Z-16Z.
Should then see a slow increase in ceiling heights followed by
scattering out of the ceiling between 16Z-19Z. Some small
potential for TS by late afternoon, but most indications point to
isolated TS or none at all through 06Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KICT 170311
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1011 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST NAM/RUC/HRRR SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF A KSLN-KCNU LINE WHICH IS CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. SLIGHT TWEAK WAS MADE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WICHITA...THOUGH WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCES JUST NORTH FOR THE
NEWTON AND EL DORADO AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LED TO LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BURN OFF.
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL KS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS...AS 850-700H WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THIS SHALLOW LOW LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES.

THIS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR
THE MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOSE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LING FROM KSLN
TO KCNU.  THINK THIS ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WED.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWING FAIRLY HEALTHY ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1700-2500 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
SUGGESTING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WED.

THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING ON WED OVER SE KS. BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KS AND STALL JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO NE KS...WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WED MAINLY
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THU AS WELL AS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY
MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS FROM KSLN TO KCNU INTO THU AFTERNOON.

THIS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARMUP IN TEMPS FOR
WED-THU. COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE SOME
AREAS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS THU NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO FRI...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THIS TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SW US...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AS ECMWF SHOWS IT PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE GFS IS
TAKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TRACK STRAIGHT ACROSS KS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT IN CENTRAL KSN AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT.  PATH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY
DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
GO SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...AND WORK OUT QPF NUMBERS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE FETCH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS. WEAKER SHEAR AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY MEAN MORE OF
SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCE....WITH LOW TOPPED STORMS. BUT
WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR...BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN KSLN AND KCNU WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER...THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS CIGS LATER TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  90  67  89 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  90  66  90 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          64  87  65  88 /  20  20  30  20
ELDORADO        64  88  65  88 /  20  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         63  88  65  89 /  10  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      63  89  64  90 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          63  87  65  84 /  20  20  40  20
MCPHERSON       64  88  65  88 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  87  66  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHANUTE         62  85  65  84 /  30  30  30  30
IOLA            61  84  65  81 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    63  86  66  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 170245
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
945 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST NAM/RUC/HRRR SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF A KSLN-KCNU LINE WHICH IS CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. SLIGHT TWEAK WAS MADE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WICHITA...THOUGH WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCES JUST NORTH FOR THE
NEWTON AND EL DORADO AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LED TO LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BURN OFF.
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL KS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS...AS 850-700H WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THIS SHALLOW LOW LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES.

THIS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR
THE MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOSE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LING FROM KSLN
TO KCNU.  THINK THIS ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WED.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWING FAIRLY HEALTHY ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1700-2500 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
SUGGESTING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WED.

THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING ON WED OVER SE KS. BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KS AND STALL JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO NE KS...WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WED MAINLY
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THU AS WELL AS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY
MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS FROM KSLN TO KCNU INTO THU AFTERNOON.

THIS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARMUP IN TEMPS FOR
WED-THU. COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE SOME
AREAS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS THU NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO FRI...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THIS TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SW US...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AS ECMWF SHOWS IT PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE GFS IS
TAKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TRACK STRAIGHT ACROSS KS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT IN CENTRAL KSN AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT.  PATH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY
DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
GO SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...AND WORK OUT QPF NUMBERS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE FETCH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS. WEAKER SHEAR AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY MEAN MORE OF
SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCE....WITH LOW TOPPED STORMS. BUT
WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT... BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH DAWN AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW
HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN KSLN AND KCNU WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER...THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS CIGS LATER TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  90  67  89 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  90  66  90 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          64  87  65  88 /  20  20  30  20
ELDORADO        64  88  65  88 /  20  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         63  88  65  89 /  10  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      63  89  64  90 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          63  87  65  84 /  20  20  40  20
MCPHERSON       64  88  65  88 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  87  66  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHANUTE         62  85  65  84 /  30  30  30  30
IOLA            61  84  65  81 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    63  86  66  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 170245
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
945 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LATEST NAM/RUC/HRRR SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR NOCTURNAL ELEVATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF A KSLN-KCNU LINE WHICH IS CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. SLIGHT TWEAK WAS MADE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WICHITA...THOUGH WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCES JUST NORTH FOR THE
NEWTON AND EL DORADO AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LED TO LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BURN OFF.
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL KS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS...AS 850-700H WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THIS SHALLOW LOW LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES.

THIS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR
THE MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOSE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LING FROM KSLN
TO KCNU.  THINK THIS ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WED.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWING FAIRLY HEALTHY ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1700-2500 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
SUGGESTING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WED.

THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING ON WED OVER SE KS. BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KS AND STALL JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO NE KS...WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WED MAINLY
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THU AS WELL AS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY
MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS FROM KSLN TO KCNU INTO THU AFTERNOON.

THIS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARMUP IN TEMPS FOR
WED-THU. COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE SOME
AREAS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS THU NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO FRI...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THIS TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SW US...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AS ECMWF SHOWS IT PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE GFS IS
TAKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TRACK STRAIGHT ACROSS KS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT IN CENTRAL KSN AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT.  PATH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY
DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
GO SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...AND WORK OUT QPF NUMBERS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE FETCH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS. WEAKER SHEAR AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY MEAN MORE OF
SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCE....WITH LOW TOPPED STORMS. BUT
WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT... BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH DAWN AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW
HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN KSLN AND KCNU WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER...THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS CIGS LATER TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  90  67  89 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  90  66  90 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          64  87  65  88 /  20  20  30  20
ELDORADO        64  88  65  88 /  20  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  90  67  89 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELL         63  88  65  89 /  10  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      63  89  64  90 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          63  87  65  84 /  20  20  40  20
MCPHERSON       64  88  65  88 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  87  66  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHANUTE         62  85  65  84 /  30  30  30  30
IOLA            61  84  65  81 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    63  86  66  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 170227
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
827 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SINCE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 3 MORNINGS WHEN MODELS WERE FORECASTING
FOG...HAVE CUT BACK ON THE AREA/COVERAGE OF FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS. DID KEEP A MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST
WHERE THE SREF HAS ATLEAST 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE OF LESS THAN
A MILE VISIBILITY. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED AT THIS TIME ABOUT
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BUT WILL SEE HOW THE
NIGHT GOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LOETI
LINE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE
WILL BE HOW LOW TO GO WITH THE CEILINGS/VIS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR
KMCK. WAS TOLD THAT DESPITE THE NAM MODEL FORECASTING DENSE FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. AM NOT SURE
WHAT THE OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS WERE SHOWING...BUT SINCE THERE
WILL NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE IN AIRMASS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WHEN ONLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY GO WITH
PERSISTENCE AT THIS TIME AND SEE WHAT THE LATEST DATA SAYS FOR
THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 162334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LOETI
LINE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE
WILL BE HOW LOW TO GO WITH THE CEILINGS/VIS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR
KMCK. WAS TOLD THAT DESPITE THE NAM MODEL FORECASTING DENSE FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. AM NOT SURE
WHAT THE OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS WERE SHOWING...BUT SINCE THERE
WILL NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE IN AIRMASS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WHEN ONLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY GO WITH
PERSISTENCE AT THIS TIME AND SEE WHAT THE LATEST DATA SAYS FOR
THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 162334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LOETI
LINE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE
WILL BE HOW LOW TO GO WITH THE CEILINGS/VIS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR
KMCK. WAS TOLD THAT DESPITE THE NAM MODEL FORECASTING DENSE FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. AM NOT SURE
WHAT THE OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS WERE SHOWING...BUT SINCE THERE
WILL NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE IN AIRMASS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WHEN ONLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY GO WITH
PERSISTENCE AT THIS TIME AND SEE WHAT THE LATEST DATA SAYS FOR
THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 162334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LOETI
LINE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE
WILL BE HOW LOW TO GO WITH THE CEILINGS/VIS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR
KMCK. WAS TOLD THAT DESPITE THE NAM MODEL FORECASTING DENSE FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. AM NOT SURE
WHAT THE OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS WERE SHOWING...BUT SINCE THERE
WILL NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE IN AIRMASS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WHEN ONLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY GO WITH
PERSISTENCE AT THIS TIME AND SEE WHAT THE LATEST DATA SAYS FOR
THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 162334
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LOETI
LINE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE
WILL BE HOW LOW TO GO WITH THE CEILINGS/VIS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR
KMCK. WAS TOLD THAT DESPITE THE NAM MODEL FORECASTING DENSE FOG
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. AM NOT SURE
WHAT THE OTHER NEAR TERM MODELS WERE SHOWING...BUT SINCE THERE
WILL NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE IN AIRMASS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING
WHEN ONLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL SIMPLY GO WITH
PERSISTENCE AT THIS TIME AND SEE WHAT THE LATEST DATA SAYS FOR
THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KTOP 162332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies across the eastern counties have brought high
temperatures into the lower 70s while far west has been a few
degrees cooler as clouds move in. Dewpoints in the 40s this morning
have risen to the lower 50s for much of eastern Kansas.

For tonight, isentropic lift develops over the eastern half of the
area near the 305K surface. Appears at this time to maximize over
eastern or east Central counties after 06z.  Will start with
slights everywhere but think parcels will need to lift northeast
before isolated storms can form.  Soundings near Emporia and the
Flint Hills refuge carry more CAPE and less mid level capping than
northward locales, reaching around 2000j/kg for a time.  Shear
remains low, however a quickly developing updraft into steep lapse
rates aloft could produce some hail as they develop.  Will focus
some low end chance pops over the east, overnight lows in the 50s.
For Wednesday, surface low over western Kansas slowly develops and
extends surface warm front eastward into the forecast area, and
coupled with the mid level front could provide a focus for another
round of isolated storms. Lifting mechanism is not strong, however,
and may have several hours of subsidence behind morning convection
before chances increase.  Again kept more focus eastward and
generally 35 percent or less all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

At least some mention of precipitation is in order into Thursday
with warm front in area and veered wind profiles. Could see
convection from Wednesday reinforce the front for more local
development Wednesday evening, but appears better synoptic isentropic
lift and moisture convergence will be in western and central
Nebraska, with upper flow bringing this southeast into a supportive
environment. Shear amounts and elevated lapse rates still not very
strong, but enough moisture for at moderate CAPE and near-severe hail
possibilities. This convection could easily spill over into Thursday
morning, and along with low level moisture pooled northeast of the
warm front (still expected to be to the southwest), temperatures
could be stubborn to rise. Continue to have low confidence in highs
given aforementioned issues, but have most areas a bit cooler than
Wednesday given more low cloud potential. At this point, boundary
layer winds look too strong for any fog concerns but can`t rule out
some around sunrise drizzle for mainly northeastern locations.  By
late Thursday, should see storm focus shift northeast ahead of next
upper wave with upper heights rising locally and will keep Thursday
night dry. Friday still looking like the most likely dry period
through the late week with highs well into the 80s, though still
some potential problems with morning stratus possibilities.

A wet period from Friday night into Saturday evening still quite
possible as the next cold front makes eastward progress through the
Plains. Surface moisture should be high enough for at least
scattered activity, but main wrench continues to be where the
remnants of Odile will be. Latest GFS and ECMWF keep this to the
south, and could potentially be enough subsidence to its north to
keep widespread precip in check here. At this point kept mid-range
PoPs going as just how Odile and the northern states` upper trough
interact is far from certain. Cooler and drier airmass settles in
for early next week under upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies to begin the TAF will likely become overcast
MVFR after 09Z as a warm front approaches but remains just south
of TAF sites. Expect a band of thunderstorms to develop near TAF
sites and drift east after 11Z (high confidence in development,
moderate confidence in location/timing). TOP/FOE stand a better
chance of having TS than MHK. MVFR cigs have a good chance to
lower to IFR conditions with periods of light BR or DZ for a
period from sunrise through 15-18Z or so. Expect cigs to scatter
between 16-20Z with low confidence in exact timing of SCT. May
then have another round of scattered TS develop after 20Z but have
not included at this time due to low confidence in timing/location.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 162332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies across the eastern counties have brought high
temperatures into the lower 70s while far west has been a few
degrees cooler as clouds move in. Dewpoints in the 40s this morning
have risen to the lower 50s for much of eastern Kansas.

For tonight, isentropic lift develops over the eastern half of the
area near the 305K surface. Appears at this time to maximize over
eastern or east Central counties after 06z.  Will start with
slights everywhere but think parcels will need to lift northeast
before isolated storms can form.  Soundings near Emporia and the
Flint Hills refuge carry more CAPE and less mid level capping than
northward locales, reaching around 2000j/kg for a time.  Shear
remains low, however a quickly developing updraft into steep lapse
rates aloft could produce some hail as they develop.  Will focus
some low end chance pops over the east, overnight lows in the 50s.
For Wednesday, surface low over western Kansas slowly develops and
extends surface warm front eastward into the forecast area, and
coupled with the mid level front could provide a focus for another
round of isolated storms. Lifting mechanism is not strong, however,
and may have several hours of subsidence behind morning convection
before chances increase.  Again kept more focus eastward and
generally 35 percent or less all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

At least some mention of precipitation is in order into Thursday
with warm front in area and veered wind profiles. Could see
convection from Wednesday reinforce the front for more local
development Wednesday evening, but appears better synoptic isentropic
lift and moisture convergence will be in western and central
Nebraska, with upper flow bringing this southeast into a supportive
environment. Shear amounts and elevated lapse rates still not very
strong, but enough moisture for at moderate CAPE and near-severe hail
possibilities. This convection could easily spill over into Thursday
morning, and along with low level moisture pooled northeast of the
warm front (still expected to be to the southwest), temperatures
could be stubborn to rise. Continue to have low confidence in highs
given aforementioned issues, but have most areas a bit cooler than
Wednesday given more low cloud potential. At this point, boundary
layer winds look too strong for any fog concerns but can`t rule out
some around sunrise drizzle for mainly northeastern locations.  By
late Thursday, should see storm focus shift northeast ahead of next
upper wave with upper heights rising locally and will keep Thursday
night dry. Friday still looking like the most likely dry period
through the late week with highs well into the 80s, though still
some potential problems with morning stratus possibilities.

A wet period from Friday night into Saturday evening still quite
possible as the next cold front makes eastward progress through the
Plains. Surface moisture should be high enough for at least
scattered activity, but main wrench continues to be where the
remnants of Odile will be. Latest GFS and ECMWF keep this to the
south, and could potentially be enough subsidence to its north to
keep widespread precip in check here. At this point kept mid-range
PoPs going as just how Odile and the northern states` upper trough
interact is far from certain. Cooler and drier airmass settles in
for early next week under upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies to begin the TAF will likely become overcast
MVFR after 09Z as a warm front approaches but remains just south
of TAF sites. Expect a band of thunderstorms to develop near TAF
sites and drift east after 11Z (high confidence in development,
moderate confidence in location/timing). TOP/FOE stand a better
chance of having TS than MHK. MVFR cigs have a good chance to
lower to IFR conditions with periods of light BR or DZ for a
period from sunrise through 15-18Z or so. Expect cigs to scatter
between 16-20Z with low confidence in exact timing of SCT. May
then have another round of scattered TS develop after 20Z but have
not included at this time due to low confidence in timing/location.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 162332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies across the eastern counties have brought high
temperatures into the lower 70s while far west has been a few
degrees cooler as clouds move in. Dewpoints in the 40s this morning
have risen to the lower 50s for much of eastern Kansas.

For tonight, isentropic lift develops over the eastern half of the
area near the 305K surface. Appears at this time to maximize over
eastern or east Central counties after 06z.  Will start with
slights everywhere but think parcels will need to lift northeast
before isolated storms can form.  Soundings near Emporia and the
Flint Hills refuge carry more CAPE and less mid level capping than
northward locales, reaching around 2000j/kg for a time.  Shear
remains low, however a quickly developing updraft into steep lapse
rates aloft could produce some hail as they develop.  Will focus
some low end chance pops over the east, overnight lows in the 50s.
For Wednesday, surface low over western Kansas slowly develops and
extends surface warm front eastward into the forecast area, and
coupled with the mid level front could provide a focus for another
round of isolated storms. Lifting mechanism is not strong, however,
and may have several hours of subsidence behind morning convection
before chances increase.  Again kept more focus eastward and
generally 35 percent or less all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

At least some mention of precipitation is in order into Thursday
with warm front in area and veered wind profiles. Could see
convection from Wednesday reinforce the front for more local
development Wednesday evening, but appears better synoptic isentropic
lift and moisture convergence will be in western and central
Nebraska, with upper flow bringing this southeast into a supportive
environment. Shear amounts and elevated lapse rates still not very
strong, but enough moisture for at moderate CAPE and near-severe hail
possibilities. This convection could easily spill over into Thursday
morning, and along with low level moisture pooled northeast of the
warm front (still expected to be to the southwest), temperatures
could be stubborn to rise. Continue to have low confidence in highs
given aforementioned issues, but have most areas a bit cooler than
Wednesday given more low cloud potential. At this point, boundary
layer winds look too strong for any fog concerns but can`t rule out
some around sunrise drizzle for mainly northeastern locations.  By
late Thursday, should see storm focus shift northeast ahead of next
upper wave with upper heights rising locally and will keep Thursday
night dry. Friday still looking like the most likely dry period
through the late week with highs well into the 80s, though still
some potential problems with morning stratus possibilities.

A wet period from Friday night into Saturday evening still quite
possible as the next cold front makes eastward progress through the
Plains. Surface moisture should be high enough for at least
scattered activity, but main wrench continues to be where the
remnants of Odile will be. Latest GFS and ECMWF keep this to the
south, and could potentially be enough subsidence to its north to
keep widespread precip in check here. At this point kept mid-range
PoPs going as just how Odile and the northern states` upper trough
interact is far from certain. Cooler and drier airmass settles in
for early next week under upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies to begin the TAF will likely become overcast
MVFR after 09Z as a warm front approaches but remains just south
of TAF sites. Expect a band of thunderstorms to develop near TAF
sites and drift east after 11Z (high confidence in development,
moderate confidence in location/timing). TOP/FOE stand a better
chance of having TS than MHK. MVFR cigs have a good chance to
lower to IFR conditions with periods of light BR or DZ for a
period from sunrise through 15-18Z or so. Expect cigs to scatter
between 16-20Z with low confidence in exact timing of SCT. May
then have another round of scattered TS develop after 20Z but have
not included at this time due to low confidence in timing/location.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 162332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies across the eastern counties have brought high
temperatures into the lower 70s while far west has been a few
degrees cooler as clouds move in. Dewpoints in the 40s this morning
have risen to the lower 50s for much of eastern Kansas.

For tonight, isentropic lift develops over the eastern half of the
area near the 305K surface. Appears at this time to maximize over
eastern or east Central counties after 06z.  Will start with
slights everywhere but think parcels will need to lift northeast
before isolated storms can form.  Soundings near Emporia and the
Flint Hills refuge carry more CAPE and less mid level capping than
northward locales, reaching around 2000j/kg for a time.  Shear
remains low, however a quickly developing updraft into steep lapse
rates aloft could produce some hail as they develop.  Will focus
some low end chance pops over the east, overnight lows in the 50s.
For Wednesday, surface low over western Kansas slowly develops and
extends surface warm front eastward into the forecast area, and
coupled with the mid level front could provide a focus for another
round of isolated storms. Lifting mechanism is not strong, however,
and may have several hours of subsidence behind morning convection
before chances increase.  Again kept more focus eastward and
generally 35 percent or less all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

At least some mention of precipitation is in order into Thursday
with warm front in area and veered wind profiles. Could see
convection from Wednesday reinforce the front for more local
development Wednesday evening, but appears better synoptic isentropic
lift and moisture convergence will be in western and central
Nebraska, with upper flow bringing this southeast into a supportive
environment. Shear amounts and elevated lapse rates still not very
strong, but enough moisture for at moderate CAPE and near-severe hail
possibilities. This convection could easily spill over into Thursday
morning, and along with low level moisture pooled northeast of the
warm front (still expected to be to the southwest), temperatures
could be stubborn to rise. Continue to have low confidence in highs
given aforementioned issues, but have most areas a bit cooler than
Wednesday given more low cloud potential. At this point, boundary
layer winds look too strong for any fog concerns but can`t rule out
some around sunrise drizzle for mainly northeastern locations.  By
late Thursday, should see storm focus shift northeast ahead of next
upper wave with upper heights rising locally and will keep Thursday
night dry. Friday still looking like the most likely dry period
through the late week with highs well into the 80s, though still
some potential problems with morning stratus possibilities.

A wet period from Friday night into Saturday evening still quite
possible as the next cold front makes eastward progress through the
Plains. Surface moisture should be high enough for at least
scattered activity, but main wrench continues to be where the
remnants of Odile will be. Latest GFS and ECMWF keep this to the
south, and could potentially be enough subsidence to its north to
keep widespread precip in check here. At this point kept mid-range
PoPs going as just how Odile and the northern states` upper trough
interact is far from certain. Cooler and drier airmass settles in
for early next week under upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies to begin the TAF will likely become overcast
MVFR after 09Z as a warm front approaches but remains just south
of TAF sites. Expect a band of thunderstorms to develop near TAF
sites and drift east after 11Z (high confidence in development,
moderate confidence in location/timing). TOP/FOE stand a better
chance of having TS than MHK. MVFR cigs have a good chance to
lower to IFR conditions with periods of light BR or DZ for a
period from sunrise through 15-18Z or so. Expect cigs to scatter
between 16-20Z with low confidence in exact timing of SCT. May
then have another round of scattered TS develop after 20Z but have
not included at this time due to low confidence in timing/location.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KICT 162330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LED TO LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BURN OFF.
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL KS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS...AS 850-700H WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THIS SHALLOW LOW LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES.

THIS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR
THE MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOSE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LING FROM KSLN
TO KCNU.  THINK THIS ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WED.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWING FAIRLY HEALTHY ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1700-2500 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
SUGGESTING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WED.

THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING ON WED OVER SE KS. BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KS AND STALL JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO NE KS...WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WED MAINLY
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THU AS WELL AS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY
MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS FROM KSLN TO KCNU INTO THU AFTERNOON.

THIS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARMUP IN TEMPS FOR
WED-THU. COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE SOME
AREAS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS THU NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO FRI...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THIS TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SW US...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AS ECMWF SHOWS IT PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE GFS IS
TAKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TRACK STRAIGHT ACROSS KS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT IN CENTRAL KSN AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT.  PATH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY
DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
GO SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...AND WORK OUT QPF NUMBERS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE FETCH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS. WEAKER SHEAR AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY MEAN MORE OF
SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCE....WITH LOW TOPPED STORMS. BUT
WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT... BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH DAWN AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW
HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN KSLN AND KCNU WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER...THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS CIGS LATER TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  90  67  89 /  20  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  90  66  90 /  20  20  20  10
NEWTON          64  87  65  88 /  20  20  30  20
ELDORADO        64  88  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  90  67  89 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         63  88  65  89 /  10  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      63  89  64  90 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          63  87  65  84 /  20  20  40  20
MCPHERSON       64  88  65  88 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  87  66  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHANUTE         62  85  65  84 /  30  30  30  30
IOLA            61  84  65  81 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    63  86  66  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 162330
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LED TO LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BURN OFF.
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL KS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS...AS 850-700H WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THIS SHALLOW LOW LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES.

THIS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR
THE MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOSE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LING FROM KSLN
TO KCNU.  THINK THIS ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WED.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWING FAIRLY HEALTHY ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1700-2500 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
SUGGESTING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WED.

THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING ON WED OVER SE KS. BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KS AND STALL JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO NE KS...WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WED MAINLY
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THU AS WELL AS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY
MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS FROM KSLN TO KCNU INTO THU AFTERNOON.

THIS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARMUP IN TEMPS FOR
WED-THU. COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE SOME
AREAS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS THU NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO FRI...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THIS TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SW US...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AS ECMWF SHOWS IT PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE GFS IS
TAKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TRACK STRAIGHT ACROSS KS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT IN CENTRAL KSN AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT.  PATH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY
DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
GO SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...AND WORK OUT QPF NUMBERS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE FETCH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS. WEAKER SHEAR AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY MEAN MORE OF
SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCE....WITH LOW TOPPED STORMS. BUT
WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS. THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-135 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT... BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH DAWN AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW
HAVE INSERTED VCTS IN KSLN AND KCNU WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A BIT
HIGHER...THOUGH BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING
NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR STRATUS CIGS LATER TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CATEGORY. HOWEVER WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE
HIGHER PROBABILITY MVFR CIGS FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  90  67  89 /  20  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  90  66  90 /  20  20  20  10
NEWTON          64  87  65  88 /  20  20  30  20
ELDORADO        64  88  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  90  67  89 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         63  88  65  89 /  10  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      63  89  64  90 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          63  87  65  84 /  20  20  40  20
MCPHERSON       64  88  65  88 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  87  66  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHANUTE         62  85  65  84 /  30  30  30  30
IOLA            61  84  65  81 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    63  86  66  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 162327
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HYS TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  92  63  90 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /   0  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162327
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HYS TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  92  63  90 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /   0  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162327
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HYS TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  92  63  90 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /   0  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162327
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3 MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HYS TERMINAL AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  92  63  90 /   0   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /   0  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162029
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  92  63  90 /  10   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /  10  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162029
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  92  63  90 /  10   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /  10  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162029
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  92  63  90 /  10   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /  10  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 162029
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A BROAD RIDGE IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW RESULTED IN A LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE RESULTING SOUTH WIND WAS
DRAWING UP MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OK-TX PANHANDLES THROUGH
WESTERN KS WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUED TO WARM, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE
COLORADO BORDER AS AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AS OF 1930 UTC WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE LAST OF THE MORNING
STRATUS WAS HOLDING ON UP ALONG INTERSTATE 70 WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO ESCAPE THE LOWER 70-72 RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT, LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN AND SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS A RESULT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 6 MPH WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION,
HOWEVER SOME LIGHT FOG IS QUITE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
283 WHERE SHORT TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SATURATED
SURFACE RH QUICKER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS MAY BE LESS THAN 6
MPH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOME CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. AS FAR AS WEDNESDAY GOES, MUCH WARMER LOWER
TROPOSPHERE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +24 TO +27C
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 93F WITH EASE, ESPECIALLY AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE DIRECT
INSOLATION PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. ALONG THE LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING, WHICH THE 4KM NAM AND WRF-NMMB HINT AT,
HOWEVER LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING TO WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE, VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS WILL MITIGATE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SO POPS WILL REMAIN 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OUT WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY
A FEW SPOTS OF FOG THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EASTERN CO
SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY, A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC SIGNAL IS NOTED
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL KANSAS SURFACE BOUNDARY, FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA
BEST SUPPORTS MAINLY A STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION EPISODE TO THE LESS
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH BEST CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 183 IS QUITE LOW, AND DIMINISHING WHERE 20 POPS ARE CARRIED
FROM HAYS SOUTHEASTWARD.

MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE CURRENT SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE TO
MARGINALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE
DAYTIME INSOLATION. MODELS STRONGLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURE REACHING AT
LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SOUTHWARD SINKING OF
THE SURFACE FRONT , CUTTING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT LEAST SEVERAL
DEGREES. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AS
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WESTERN KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY WE WENT MORE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND AWAY FROM
THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  92  63  90 /  10   0  10   0
GCK  60  94  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  61  93  62  90 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  62  93  64  92 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  61  90  63  89 /  10  10  20   0
P28  65  93  63  91 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KICT 162019
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LED TO LOTS OF
LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS THIS MORNING...BUT
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LED TO CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BURN OFF.
INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL KS FOR MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS...AS 850-700H WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THIS SHALLOW LOW LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES.

THIS WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR
THE MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. NOSE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE ERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG A LING FROM KSLN
TO KCNU.  THINK THIS ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON WED.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOWING FAIRLY HEALTHY ELEVATED
CAPE VALUES OF 1700-2500 J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS
SUGGESTING SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON
WED.

THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THIS CONVECTION LINGERING
UNTIL MID MORNING ON WED OVER SE KS. BUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
KS AND STALL JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT OF THE CONVERGENCE DUE TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO NE KS...WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WED MAINLY
ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THU AS WELL AS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY
MAY CONTINUE FOR AREAS FROM KSLN TO KCNU INTO THU AFTERNOON.

THIS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NICE WARMUP IN TEMPS FOR
WED-THU. COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLIMB ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE SOME
AREAS MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS THU NIGHT PROGRESSES INTO FRI...ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE...AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THIS TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SW US...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS...AS ECMWF SHOWS IT PHASING
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS ON SAT. THE GFS IS
TAKING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TRACK STRAIGHT ACROSS KS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO THE HIGHEST POPS FOR LATE FRI NIGHT IN CENTRAL KSN AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT.  PATH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NATURALLY
DICTATE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW...WILL
GO SOLID CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...AND WORK OUT QPF NUMBERS AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.

GIVEN THE MOISTURE FETCH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS TROPICAL
CONNECTION...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS. WEAKER SHEAR AND LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES USUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY MEAN MORE OF
SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CHANCE....WITH LOW TOPPED STORMS. BUT
WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 12-17KT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. MVFR/AREAS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 07-09Z POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSLN-KCNU HOWEVER THE BETTER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
LEVEL SSW WINDS WILL RETURN ON WED ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

MWM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  90  67  89 /  20  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  90  66  90 /  20  20  20  10
NEWTON          64  87  65  88 /  20  20  30  20
ELDORADO        64  88  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  90  67  89 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         63  88  65  89 /  10  20  30  10
GREAT BEND      63  89  64  90 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          63  87  65  84 /  20  20  40  20
MCPHERSON       64  88  65  88 /  20  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  87  66  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHANUTE         62  85  65  84 /  30  30  30  30
IOLA            61  84  65  81 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    63  86  66  86 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KTOP 162017
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Mostly clear skies across the eastern counties have brought high
temperatures into the lower 70s while far west has been a few
degrees cooler as clouds move in. Dewpoints in the 40s this morning
have risen to the lower 50s for much of eastern Kansas.

For tonight, isentropic lift develops over the eastern half of the
area near the 305K surface. Appears at this time to maximize over
eastern or east Central counties after 06z.  Will start with
slights everywhere but think parcels will need to lift northeast
before isolated storms can form.  Soundings near Emporia and the
Flint Hills refuge carry more CAPE and less mid level capping than
northward locales, reaching around 2000j/kg for a time.  Shear
remains low, however a quickly developing updraft into steep lapse
rates aloft could produce some hail as they develop.  Will focus
some low end chance pops over the east, overnight lows in the 50s.
For Wednesday, surface low over western Kansas slowly develops and
extends surface warm front eastward into the forecast area, and
coupled with the mid level front could provide a focus for another
round of isolated storms. Lifting mechanism is not strong, however,
and may have several hours of subsidence behind morning convection
before chances increase.  Again kept more focus eastward and
generally 35 percent or less all areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

At least some mention of precipitation is in order into Thursday
with warm front in area and veered wind profiles. Could see
convection from Wednesday reinforce the front for more local
development Wednesday evening, but appears better synoptic isentropic
lift and moisture convergence will be in western and central
Nebraska, with upper flow bringing this southeast into a supportive
environment. Shear amounts and elevated lapse rates still not very
strong, but enough moisture for at moderate CAPE and near-severe hail
possibilities. This convection could easily spill over into Thursday
morning, and along with low level moisture pooled northeast of the
warm front (still expected to be to the southwest), temperatures
could be stubborn to rise. Continue to have low confidence in highs
given aforementioned issues, but have most areas a bit cooler than
Wednesday given more low cloud potential. At this point, boundary
layer winds look too strong for any fog concerns but can`t rule out
some around sunrise drizzle for mainly northeastern locations.  By
late Thursday, should see storm focus shift northeast ahead of next
upper wave with upper heights rising locally and will keep Thursday
night dry. Friday still looking like the most likely dry period
through the late week with highs well into the 80s, though still
some potential problems with morning stratus possibilities.

A wet period from Friday night into Saturday evening still quite
possible as the next cold front makes eastward progress through the
Plains. Surface moisture should be high enough for at least
scattered activity, but main wrench continues to be where the
remnants of Odile will be. Latest GFS and ECMWF keep this to the
south, and could potentially be enough subsidence to its north to
keep widespread precip in check here. At this point kept mid-range
PoPs going as just how Odile and the northern states` upper trough
interact is far from certain. Cooler and drier airmass settles in
for early next week under upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions early in the forecast followed by increasing
chances for convection after midnight and possibly some reductions
to visby toward sunrise. For now will carry VCTS as storms may
form near or east of the TAF sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KGLD 162000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LOETI
LINE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THIS MORNING AS STRATUS ERODES FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR KMCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOUTH
WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG SHOULD
BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE MOISTURE POOLS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.
THIS CONFINES FOG THREAT TO KMCK TONIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWERED VIS AT KMCK TO IFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING AS FOG/STRATUS ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 162000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL HAS
BACKED OFF ON WESTWARD PUSH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NOW LIMITING IT TO AREAS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS...SIMILAR TO THE
06Z GFS. NAM VISIBILITY FORECASTS FOR FOG IN THE STRATUS HAVE BEEN
HORRIBLE THE PAST WEEK OR SO...OVERDOING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.
HOWEVER...WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND VS SOUTHERLY THE PAST FEW POTENTIAL
EVENTS CANT RULE OUT SOME FOG SO HAVE KEPT IT GOING BUT BACKED OFF
COVERAGE JUST A BIT.

SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SHORTLY AFTER AS INSTABILITY AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST.
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA HEAD OF (AS OF THIS WRITING) TROPICAL
STORM ODILE.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WARMING A FEW
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH (AS OF THIS WRITING)
TROPICAL STORM ODILE FORECAST TO REACH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE NAM/ECMWF FURTHEST
NORTH AND GFS QUITE A BIT TO THE SOUTH...NOT EVEN REACHING KANSAS.
FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 18Z TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TRIBUNE AND LOETI
LINE. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR ODILES MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TOWARD NORTON AND HILL CITY BY 06Z BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CO/KS BORDER TUESDAY.

HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THIS MORNING AS STRATUS ERODES FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR KMCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOUTH
WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG SHOULD
BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE MOISTURE POOLS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.
THIS CONFINES FOG THREAT TO KMCK TONIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWERED VIS AT KMCK TO IFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING AS FOG/STRATUS ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 161947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THIS MORNING AS STRATUS ERODES FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR KMCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOUTH
WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG SHOULD
BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE MOISTURE POOLS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.
THIS CONFINES FOG THREAT TO KMCK TONIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWERED VIS AT KMCK TO IFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING AS FOG/STRATUS ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 161947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE
REMAINING EXCEPTION OF ERODING STRATUS EAST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO
GOVE KANSAS LINE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WHERE STRATUS
REMAINS. WINDS WERE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO...SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED
LOCATION OF THE LEE TROUGH...POOLING MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS...LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOG TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
SHOULD RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STRATTON NEBRASKA TO
HOXIE TO HILL CITY KANSAS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM...WRF NMM...AND THE RUC13 INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THREAT BUT FOR NOW...DID NOT
PLACE DENSE WORDING INTO THE GRIDS.

FOR TOMORROW...WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED REGION-WIDE AS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CLOUD COVER AND LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE FOG SHOULD SEE FOG LIFT AND DISSIPATE MUCH QUICKER THAN
STRATUS TODAY. ONE ITEM TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF...NAM12 AND WRF-NMM
DEVELOP A COUPLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY IS AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF
CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPE IN PLACE...WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE INDICATION OF A STRONG ENOUGH SHORTWAVE TO
OVERCOME THE CAP...DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THIS MORNING AS STRATUS ERODES FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR KMCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOUTH
WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG SHOULD
BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE MOISTURE POOLS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.
THIS CONFINES FOG THREAT TO KMCK TONIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWERED VIS AT KMCK TO IFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING AS FOG/STRATUS ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 161830
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A broad upper level trough will continue across the eastern US. The
plains will be under northwesterly flow at mid and upper levels of
the atmosphere through the next 24 hours.

At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure extending from the
upper Midwest, southwest across eastern KS and OK will shift east
across MO Today. A lee trough will deepen across the southern high
plains and low-level winds will become southerly across western OK
and western KS. Deeper gulf moisture will be advected northwest
through the day across OK and KS.

South-southeasterly 850mb winds will cause a slow increase in deeper
moisture across the CWA through the afternoon hours. Point forecast
soundings show an EML developing across eastern KS...with a warm
nose of 20 to 24 degrees C at 750 MB. This will cause an unbreakable
CAP for any surface based convection this afternoon. There may be
some increase in boundary layer CU as the surface to 850mb layer
moisten through the afternoon hours. Highs temperatures Today will
warm into the lower to mid 70s across much of the CWA.

Tonight, The 850mb winds will begin to veer to the southwest and
continue to advect deeper gulf moisture northeast across the CWA. As
the southwesterly LLJ increases through the night isentropic lift
will increase across the eastern half the of the CWA after
midnight. There may also be some weak H5 troughs embedded in the
northwesterly flow aloft that could add additional ascent to help
cool the warm nose at 750mb. The NAM, NMM, ARW, ECMWF all show the
potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop, due to isentropic
lift increasing enough at the 310K level for parcels to reach their
LFC. ATTM the WRF (ARW and NMM) show most of the elevated
thunderstorms developing across western MO after 9Z with much of the
CWA remaining dry. The NAM and ECMWF forecast QPF to occur from 9Z
to 12Z across the eastern one third of the CWA. The GFS model breaks
out elevated storms across most of the CWA by 6Z and expands the
coverage of QPF through 12Z. At this time, the isentropic lift
forecasted by the GFS looks too far west. I will forecast chance
pops for the far eastern counties of the CWA after 6Z, with slight
chance pops across the remainder of the CWA.

If elevated thunderstorms develop late Tonight they may produce
quarter to half dollar size hail. MUCAPES are forecasted to range
between 1500 to 2500 J/KG, and 850 to 600 mb effective shear will
be 30 to 40 KTS. This type of environment may lead to some isolated
strong elevated thunderstorm updrafts through the early morning
hours of Wednesdays.

Southerly winds and deeper moisture advection will keep
overnight lows mild with lows only dropping into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

By Wednesday morning elevated convection will continue to linger in
far eastern KS and western MO. The best chances for precip still
appear to be south and east of the turn pike. The isentropic ascent
becomes less widespread and more focused over southwest MO during
the morning hours as the veering low level jet quickly diminishes.
At the surface a low pressure will be centered over western KS, and
a quasi stationary front extends eastward into southeast KS. During
the day it retreats back to the southwest, and could become the
focus for additional isolated development with a weak cap in place.
Any storm forming along the front Wednesday afternoon could
encounter up to 2000 j/kg of cape due to decent mid level lapse
rates, and marginal deep layer shear. This poses a slight risk for a
severe storm mainly south of interstate 35. With the front south of
the area isentropic lift develops again overnight although is not
strongly focused over the area with more of a split flow in the low
levels. The convergence appears sufficient enough for chance pops,
and with not much change in the pattern a strong to severe storm
will again be possible. Kept slight chance pops going during the day
Thursday for any isolated rain showers. Soundings show the
environment should be well capped from any thunderstorm development.

The next main weather system to affect the area appears to be on
Saturday. The models seem to have a better handle on the remnants
of tropical storm Odile tracking the system somewhere over eastern
KS. At this point it is too far out to be specific in large part to
a decent mid level trough progressing across the northern US. The
speed of this trough will likely play a role on where the remnants
are absorbed into the main flow. Moisture content will be very
high Saturday with PWs over 2 inches possible, which could lead to
locally heavy rainfall. The northern trough will bring a cold
front through the region that clears out of the forecast area
Sunday morning. Meanwhile temperatures stay below and near normal
through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions early in the forecast followed by increasing
chances for convection after midnight and possibly some reductions
to visby toward sunrise. For now will carry VCTS as storms may
form near or east of the TAF sites.  67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67






000
FXUS63 KTOP 161830
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A broad upper level trough will continue across the eastern US. The
plains will be under northwesterly flow at mid and upper levels of
the atmosphere through the next 24 hours.

At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure extending from the
upper Midwest, southwest across eastern KS and OK will shift east
across MO Today. A lee trough will deepen across the southern high
plains and low-level winds will become southerly across western OK
and western KS. Deeper gulf moisture will be advected northwest
through the day across OK and KS.

South-southeasterly 850mb winds will cause a slow increase in deeper
moisture across the CWA through the afternoon hours. Point forecast
soundings show an EML developing across eastern KS...with a warm
nose of 20 to 24 degrees C at 750 MB. This will cause an unbreakable
CAP for any surface based convection this afternoon. There may be
some increase in boundary layer CU as the surface to 850mb layer
moisten through the afternoon hours. Highs temperatures Today will
warm into the lower to mid 70s across much of the CWA.

Tonight, The 850mb winds will begin to veer to the southwest and
continue to advect deeper gulf moisture northeast across the CWA. As
the southwesterly LLJ increases through the night isentropic lift
will increase across the eastern half the of the CWA after
midnight. There may also be some weak H5 troughs embedded in the
northwesterly flow aloft that could add additional ascent to help
cool the warm nose at 750mb. The NAM, NMM, ARW, ECMWF all show the
potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop, due to isentropic
lift increasing enough at the 310K level for parcels to reach their
LFC. ATTM the WRF (ARW and NMM) show most of the elevated
thunderstorms developing across western MO after 9Z with much of the
CWA remaining dry. The NAM and ECMWF forecast QPF to occur from 9Z
to 12Z across the eastern one third of the CWA. The GFS model breaks
out elevated storms across most of the CWA by 6Z and expands the
coverage of QPF through 12Z. At this time, the isentropic lift
forecasted by the GFS looks too far west. I will forecast chance
pops for the far eastern counties of the CWA after 6Z, with slight
chance pops across the remainder of the CWA.

If elevated thunderstorms develop late Tonight they may produce
quarter to half dollar size hail. MUCAPES are forecasted to range
between 1500 to 2500 J/KG, and 850 to 600 mb effective shear will
be 30 to 40 KTS. This type of environment may lead to some isolated
strong elevated thunderstorm updrafts through the early morning
hours of Wednesdays.

Southerly winds and deeper moisture advection will keep
overnight lows mild with lows only dropping into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

By Wednesday morning elevated convection will continue to linger in
far eastern KS and western MO. The best chances for precip still
appear to be south and east of the turn pike. The isentropic ascent
becomes less widespread and more focused over southwest MO during
the morning hours as the veering low level jet quickly diminishes.
At the surface a low pressure will be centered over western KS, and
a quasi stationary front extends eastward into southeast KS. During
the day it retreats back to the southwest, and could become the
focus for additional isolated development with a weak cap in place.
Any storm forming along the front Wednesday afternoon could
encounter up to 2000 j/kg of cape due to decent mid level lapse
rates, and marginal deep layer shear. This poses a slight risk for a
severe storm mainly south of interstate 35. With the front south of
the area isentropic lift develops again overnight although is not
strongly focused over the area with more of a split flow in the low
levels. The convergence appears sufficient enough for chance pops,
and with not much change in the pattern a strong to severe storm
will again be possible. Kept slight chance pops going during the day
Thursday for any isolated rain showers. Soundings show the
environment should be well capped from any thunderstorm development.

The next main weather system to affect the area appears to be on
Saturday. The models seem to have a better handle on the remnants
of tropical storm Odile tracking the system somewhere over eastern
KS. At this point it is too far out to be specific in large part to
a decent mid level trough progressing across the northern US. The
speed of this trough will likely play a role on where the remnants
are absorbed into the main flow. Moisture content will be very
high Saturday with PWs over 2 inches possible, which could lead to
locally heavy rainfall. The northern trough will bring a cold
front through the region that clears out of the forecast area
Sunday morning. Meanwhile temperatures stay below and near normal
through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR conditions early in the forecast followed by increasing
chances for convection after midnight and possibly some reductions
to visby toward sunrise. For now will carry VCTS as storms may
form near or east of the TAF sites.  67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KICT 161755
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1255 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 12-17KT RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. MVFR/AREAS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 07-09Z POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSLN-KCNU HOWEVER THE BETTER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
LEVEL SSW WINDS WILL RETURN ON WED ALLOWING CLOUDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  20  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  30  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  30  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 161752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  83  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  84  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  84  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  75  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  80  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  83  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  84  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  84  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  75  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  80  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  83  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  84  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  84  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  75  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  80  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 161752
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1252 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A LEE TROUGH
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME AROUND 6 TO 8 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE LOWER 60S, WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT FOG
POTENTIAL AT GCK, DDC, AND HYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWEST
VISIBILITY WILL BE AT HYS AND AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND WILL NOT YET FORECAST IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  81  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  83  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  84  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  84  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  75  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  80  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KGLD 161732
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THIS MORNING AS STRATUS ERODES FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR KMCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOUTH
WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG SHOULD
BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE MOISTURE POOLS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.
THIS CONFINES FOG THREAT TO KMCK TONIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWERED VIS AT KMCK TO IFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING AS FOG/STRATUS ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 161732
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THIS MORNING AS STRATUS ERODES FROM
WEST TO EAST. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR KMCK OVER THE NEXT HOUR. SOUTH
WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG SHOULD
BECOME A PROBLEM WHERE MOISTURE POOLS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH.
THIS CONFINES FOG THREAT TO KMCK TONIGHT. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
FOG COULD BE DENSE. LOWERED VIS AT KMCK TO IFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
BY LATE MORNING AS FOG/STRATUS ERODES FROM WEST TO EAST ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 161145
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A broad upper level trough will continue across the eastern US. The
plains will be under northwesterly flow at mid and upper levels of
the atmosphere through the next 24 hours.

At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure extending from the
upper Midwest, southwest across eastern KS and OK will shift east
across MO Today. A lee trough will deepen across the southern high
plains and low-level winds will become southerly across western OK
and western KS. Deeper gulf moisture will be advected northwest
through the day across OK and KS.

South-southeasterly 850mb winds will cause a slow increase in deeper
moisture across the CWA through the afternoon hours. Point forecast
soundings show an EML developing across eastern KS...with a warm
nose of 20 to 24 degrees C at 750 MB. This will cause an unbreakable
CAP for any surface based convection this afternoon. There may be
some increase in boundary layer CU as the surface to 850mb layer
moisten through the afternoon hours. Highs temperatures Today will
warm into the lower to mid 70s across much of the CWA.

Tonight, The 850mb winds will begin to veer to the southwest and
continue to advect deeper gulf moisture northeast across the CWA. As
the southwesterly LLJ increases through the night isentropic lift
will increase across the eastern half the of the CWA after
midnight. There may also be some weak H5 troughs embedded in the
northwesterly flow aloft that could add additional ascent to help
cool the warm nose at 750mb. The NAM, NMM, ARW, ECMWF all show the
potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop, due to isentropic
lift increasing enough at the 310K level for parcels to reach their
LFC. ATTM the WRF (ARW and NMM) show most of the elevated
thunderstorms developing across western MO after 9Z with much of the
CWA remaining dry. The NAM and ECMWF forecast QPF to occur from 9Z
to 12Z across the eastern one third of the CWA. The GFS model breaks
out elevated storms across most of the CWA by 6Z and expands the
coverage of QPF through 12Z. At this time, the isentropic lift
forecasted by the GFS looks too far west. I will forecast chance
pops for the far eastern counties of the CWA after 6Z, with slight
chance pops across the remainder of the CWA.

If elevated thunderstorms develop late Tonight they may produce
quarter to half dollar size hail. MUCAPES are forecasted to range
between 1500 to 2500 J/KG, and 850 to 600 mb effective shear will
be 30 to 40 KTS. This type of environment may lead to some isolated
strong elevated thunderstorm updrafts through the early morning
hours of Wednesdays.

Southerly winds and deeper moisture advection will keep
overnight lows mild with lows only dropping into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

By Wednesday morning elevated convection will continue to linger in
far eastern KS and western MO. The best chances for precip still
appear to be south and east of the turn pike. The isentropic ascent
becomes less widespread and more focused over southwest MO during
the morning hours as the veering low level jet quickly diminishes.
At the surface a low pressure will be centered over western KS, and
a quasi stationary front extends eastward into southeast KS. During
the day it retreats back to the southwest, and could become the
focus for additional isolated development with a weak cap in place.
Any storm forming along the front Wednesday afternoon could
encounter up to 2000 j/kg of cape due to decent mid level lapse
rates, and marginal deep layer shear. This poses a slight risk for a
severe storm mainly south of interstate 35. With the front south of
the area isentropic lift develops again overnight although is not
strongly focused over the area with more of a split flow in the low
levels. The convergence appears sufficient enough for chance pops,
and with not much change in the pattern a strong to severe storm
will again be possible. Kept slight chance pops going during the day
Thursday for any isolated rain showers. Soundings show the
environment should be well capped from any thunderstorm development.

The next main weather system to affect the area appears to be on
Saturday. The models seem to have a better handle on the remnants
of tropical storm Odile tracking the system somewhere over eastern
KS. At this point it is too far out to be specific in large part to
a decent mid level trough progressing across the northern US. The
speed of this trough will likely play a role on where the remnants
are absorbed into the main flow. Moisture content will be very
high Saturday with PWs over 2 inches possible, which could lead to
locally heavy rainfall. The northern trough will bring a cold
front through the region that clears out of the forecast area
Sunday morning. Meanwhile temperatures stay below and near normal
through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The patchy shallow ground fog at the terminals this morning will
mix out by 14Z. VFR stratus will increase tonight and there may be
isolated to scattered thunderstorms at or around the terminals
after 6Z WED. Did not include in TAFs due to uncertainty in timing
and coverage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 161145
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A broad upper level trough will continue across the eastern US. The
plains will be under northwesterly flow at mid and upper levels of
the atmosphere through the next 24 hours.

At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure extending from the
upper Midwest, southwest across eastern KS and OK will shift east
across MO Today. A lee trough will deepen across the southern high
plains and low-level winds will become southerly across western OK
and western KS. Deeper gulf moisture will be advected northwest
through the day across OK and KS.

South-southeasterly 850mb winds will cause a slow increase in deeper
moisture across the CWA through the afternoon hours. Point forecast
soundings show an EML developing across eastern KS...with a warm
nose of 20 to 24 degrees C at 750 MB. This will cause an unbreakable
CAP for any surface based convection this afternoon. There may be
some increase in boundary layer CU as the surface to 850mb layer
moisten through the afternoon hours. Highs temperatures Today will
warm into the lower to mid 70s across much of the CWA.

Tonight, The 850mb winds will begin to veer to the southwest and
continue to advect deeper gulf moisture northeast across the CWA. As
the southwesterly LLJ increases through the night isentropic lift
will increase across the eastern half the of the CWA after
midnight. There may also be some weak H5 troughs embedded in the
northwesterly flow aloft that could add additional ascent to help
cool the warm nose at 750mb. The NAM, NMM, ARW, ECMWF all show the
potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop, due to isentropic
lift increasing enough at the 310K level for parcels to reach their
LFC. ATTM the WRF (ARW and NMM) show most of the elevated
thunderstorms developing across western MO after 9Z with much of the
CWA remaining dry. The NAM and ECMWF forecast QPF to occur from 9Z
to 12Z across the eastern one third of the CWA. The GFS model breaks
out elevated storms across most of the CWA by 6Z and expands the
coverage of QPF through 12Z. At this time, the isentropic lift
forecasted by the GFS looks too far west. I will forecast chance
pops for the far eastern counties of the CWA after 6Z, with slight
chance pops across the remainder of the CWA.

If elevated thunderstorms develop late Tonight they may produce
quarter to half dollar size hail. MUCAPES are forecasted to range
between 1500 to 2500 J/KG, and 850 to 600 mb effective shear will
be 30 to 40 KTS. This type of environment may lead to some isolated
strong elevated thunderstorm updrafts through the early morning
hours of Wednesdays.

Southerly winds and deeper moisture advection will keep
overnight lows mild with lows only dropping into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

By Wednesday morning elevated convection will continue to linger in
far eastern KS and western MO. The best chances for precip still
appear to be south and east of the turn pike. The isentropic ascent
becomes less widespread and more focused over southwest MO during
the morning hours as the veering low level jet quickly diminishes.
At the surface a low pressure will be centered over western KS, and
a quasi stationary front extends eastward into southeast KS. During
the day it retreats back to the southwest, and could become the
focus for additional isolated development with a weak cap in place.
Any storm forming along the front Wednesday afternoon could
encounter up to 2000 j/kg of cape due to decent mid level lapse
rates, and marginal deep layer shear. This poses a slight risk for a
severe storm mainly south of interstate 35. With the front south of
the area isentropic lift develops again overnight although is not
strongly focused over the area with more of a split flow in the low
levels. The convergence appears sufficient enough for chance pops,
and with not much change in the pattern a strong to severe storm
will again be possible. Kept slight chance pops going during the day
Thursday for any isolated rain showers. Soundings show the
environment should be well capped from any thunderstorm development.

The next main weather system to affect the area appears to be on
Saturday. The models seem to have a better handle on the remnants
of tropical storm Odile tracking the system somewhere over eastern
KS. At this point it is too far out to be specific in large part to
a decent mid level trough progressing across the northern US. The
speed of this trough will likely play a role on where the remnants
are absorbed into the main flow. Moisture content will be very
high Saturday with PWs over 2 inches possible, which could lead to
locally heavy rainfall. The northern trough will bring a cold
front through the region that clears out of the forecast area
Sunday morning. Meanwhile temperatures stay below and near normal
through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The patchy shallow ground fog at the terminals this morning will
mix out by 14Z. VFR stratus will increase tonight and there may be
isolated to scattered thunderstorms at or around the terminals
after 6Z WED. Did not include in TAFs due to uncertainty in timing
and coverage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KGLD 161143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR SKIES BKN020-030 THRU MIDDAY THEN VFR FOR REST OF FORECAST
WITH SCT030 BECM SKC BY 00Z WED. SSW WINDS 10-20KTS...BECM WSW
5KTS FOR GLD BY 07Z WED...VRB05KT FOR MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 161143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR SKIES BKN020-030 THRU MIDDAY THEN VFR FOR REST OF FORECAST
WITH SCT030 BECM SKC BY 00Z WED. SSW WINDS 10-20KTS...BECM WSW
5KTS FOR GLD BY 07Z WED...VRB05KT FOR MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 161143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR SKIES BKN020-030 THRU MIDDAY THEN VFR FOR REST OF FORECAST
WITH SCT030 BECM SKC BY 00Z WED. SSW WINDS 10-20KTS...BECM WSW
5KTS FOR GLD BY 07Z WED...VRB05KT FOR MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 161143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR SKIES BKN020-030 THRU MIDDAY THEN VFR FOR REST OF FORECAST
WITH SCT030 BECM SKC BY 00Z WED. SSW WINDS 10-20KTS...BECM WSW
5KTS FOR GLD BY 07Z WED...VRB05KT FOR MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 161136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS AND
NOW ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SO FAR THEY HAVE NOT
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR LEVELS AND NOT EXPECTING THEM TO. FEEL THAT A
FEW SITES WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN KS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOST SITES SHOULD BE AT
VFR LEVELS. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
AREAS EAST OF I-135 WILL AGAIN SEE LOWER CLOUDS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  30  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  40  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  40  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 161136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS AND
NOW ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SO FAR THEY HAVE NOT
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR LEVELS AND NOT EXPECTING THEM TO. FEEL THAT A
FEW SITES WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN KS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOST SITES SHOULD BE AT
VFR LEVELS. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
AREAS EAST OF I-135 WILL AGAIN SEE LOWER CLOUDS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  30  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  40  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  40  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 161136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS AND
NOW ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SO FAR THEY HAVE NOT
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR LEVELS AND NOT EXPECTING THEM TO. FEEL THAT A
FEW SITES WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN KS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOST SITES SHOULD BE AT
VFR LEVELS. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
AREAS EAST OF I-135 WILL AGAIN SEE LOWER CLOUDS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  30  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  40  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  40  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 161136
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KS...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING BACK NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCREASED ASCENT ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN-WICHITA-WINFIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO
WILL FAVOR DIME SIZE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY. REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY--THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GREAT BEND-WICHITA-WINFIELD WEDNESDAY
EVENING--THURSDAY MORNING. MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT...READINGS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
80S-90S WED-THU...AS WESTERN CONUS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA PROGRESS NORTHEAST...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEP
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADD THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY
EVENING. TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEMPER SEVERE
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SHORT AMOUNTS OF TIME. HOWEVER...NOT ANTICIPATING A PROLONGED
EVENT AS SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. THE
SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS OFTEN VERIFY THE BEST WITH SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS...SO DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN A BIT.
COOLER FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS TODAY.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS AND
NOW ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. SO FAR THEY HAVE NOT
DROPPED DOWN TO IFR LEVELS AND NOT EXPECTING THEM TO. FEEL THAT A
FEW SITES WILL GO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
MAINLY SOUTHERN KS. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOST SITES SHOULD BE AT
VFR LEVELS. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
AREAS EAST OF I-135 WILL AGAIN SEE LOWER CLOUDS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  65  89  66 /  10  20  20  20
HUTCHINSON      76  64  88  65 /  10  20  20  30
NEWTON          75  63  85  64 /  10  30  20  30
ELDORADO        76  63  86  65 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  66  89  67 /  10  20  10  20
RUSSELL         76  62  85  64 /  10  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      76  63  88  64 /  10  10  20  30
SALINA          74  62  84  65 /  10  30  20  40
MCPHERSON       75  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     77  64  85  66 /  10  30  30  30
CHANUTE         75  61  82  64 /  10  40  30  40
IOLA            74  60  81  63 /  10  40  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    76  63  84  65 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 161100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE MORNING AS A STRATUS DECK MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE STRATUS DECK LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15KT THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN
EASTERN KANSAS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT AS
A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  82  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  86  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  83  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  73  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  79  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 161100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS MORNING WILL BE PLAGUED BY WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LAYERS AND THE LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION TO WITHER TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES
APART.  THIS FOG SHOULD START IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST NEAR
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.  FOR NOW, I ONLY EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN
1 MILE, SO A FOG ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED, BUT SHOULD BE
WATCHED AND MONITORED. THIS FOG AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL DELAY THE
DAY TIME HEATING, BUT THE WARM ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER, WHERE A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL EXIST.  MID 80S SHOULD BE
REALIZED THERE, WHILE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S NEAR HAYS AND LACROSSE.  THE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL BECOME FROM
THE SOUTH AT ONLY THE 10 TO 12 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE
CHOSE TO FOLLOW THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS, WHICH KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
TODAY TO OUR SOUTH. OF NOTE HOWEVER, ARE BOTH THE HIRESW-NMM AND
THE HIRESW-ARW MODELS WHICH BOTH BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON, BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

I EXPECT NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT
6 TO 8 MPH. THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
TONIGHT, SO I DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH FOG OR STRATUS. THERE COULD BE
SOME 3 TO 5SM FOG, ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST, BUT I DON`T THINK THIS
IS WORTH MENTIONING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING, RANGING FORM THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-70 TO THE MID
60S IN THE BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL LEND TO DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROJECTED TO EXTEND EAST-SOUTHEAST OFF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH A
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT, STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ARE PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS WILL LIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP TOWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BASED ON PW
VALUES AND QPF FIELDS, SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE HALF
INCH OF RAINFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE MORE READILY
AVAILABLE.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING AN ALREADY PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 20C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) WITH NEAR 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS RAISING
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW MORE LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE.
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS CLOUD
COVER BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE MORNING AS A STRATUS DECK MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE STRATUS DECK LIFTS AND DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 15KT THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH IN
EASTERN KANSAS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT AS
A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  64  89  63 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  82  61  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  86  62  89  62 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  83  63  90  64 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  73  61  84  63 /  10  10   0  20
P28  79  66  89  63 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




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