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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF AREAL COVERAGE
EACH DAY.

A LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY AND THEN LIFTS OUT TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SECOND LOW CENTER DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THIS FLOW ALOFT...AIDING IN THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DIURNAL OSCILLATIONS AS DISTURBANCES
LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FAVORED AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...BUT THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
DEPICTED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY BY THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
TENDED TO TRY AND BROAD-BRUSH THE PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FUNNEL PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE ENSUING
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXITS...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE WEEK WILL BE RETURNING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES WIDE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF AREAL COVERAGE
EACH DAY.

A LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY AND THEN LIFTS OUT TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SECOND LOW CENTER DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THIS FLOW ALOFT...AIDING IN THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DIURNAL OSCILLATIONS AS DISTURBANCES
LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FAVORED AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...BUT THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
DEPICTED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY BY THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
TENDED TO TRY AND BROAD-BRUSH THE PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FUNNEL PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE ENSUING
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXITS...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE WEEK WILL BE RETURNING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES WIDE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF AREAL COVERAGE
EACH DAY.

A LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY AND THEN LIFTS OUT TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SECOND LOW CENTER DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THIS FLOW ALOFT...AIDING IN THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DIURNAL OSCILLATIONS AS DISTURBANCES
LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FAVORED AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...BUT THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
DEPICTED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY BY THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
TENDED TO TRY AND BROAD-BRUSH THE PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FUNNEL PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE ENSUING
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXITS...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE WEEK WILL BE RETURNING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES WIDE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 231038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF AREAL COVERAGE
EACH DAY.

A LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY AND THEN LIFTS OUT TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SECOND LOW CENTER DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINED
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING GENERALLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THIS FLOW ALOFT...AIDING IN THE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.

A MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DIURNAL OSCILLATIONS AS DISTURBANCES
LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FAVORED AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...BUT THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF WHICH IS
DEPICTED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY BY THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE
TENDED TO TRY AND BROAD-BRUSH THE PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FUNNEL PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE ENSUING
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXITS...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE WEEK WILL BE RETURNING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES WIDE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



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000
FXUS63 KICT 230842
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014


TODAY-TONIGHT:
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING IN CENTRAL
KANSAS GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.  NEXT CONCERN IS DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES.
BASED ON 0000 UTC RAOBS...850MB IS SEVERAL DEGREES DRIER THAN
24HRS AGO...AND ALSO EXPECTING MORE SURFACE WIND/MIXING THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A BIT LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SPARSE RAINFALL YESTERDAY. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION WISE...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR NEAR FOUR CORNERS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND 0000 UTC NEAR THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BUT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AHEAD OF
WAVE/FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER MODELS ARE CORRECT
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ALL NIGHT. SUSPECT COMBO OF SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE AND LOSS OF HEIGHT WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO WANE LATE
THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE FLINT HILLS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

SUN-MON:
BASICALLY SAME ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD: WEAK FRONT WILL FLIRT
WITH PRIMARY CENTRAL KS. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF FRONT AND ANYWHERE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED. THIS WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. HEAT INDICES MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUN.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
LONGER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF HAS
TRENDED EVEN SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN...WHILE 0000 UTC GFS IS
MUCH FASTER. THIS IMPACTS BOTH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. GFS HAS SHOWN A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY...
BUT A FAST SOLUTION IN SUMMER DOLDRUMS SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT.
INITIALIZATION BLEND IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO BEYOND WED....BUT
WOULD FAVOR WARMER ECMWF FOR TUE/WED TIMEFRAME. UNCERTAINTY WILL
FORCE LOW POPS FOR NEARLY ENTIRE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ON ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70...POSSIBLE AFFECTING KRSL
AND KSLN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH COULD BRUSH THE KRSL TERMINAL
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MORE REMOTE
ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  76  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      98  75  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
NEWTON          98  75  99  73 /  10  20  20  20
ELDORADO        98  76  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         96  72  94  69 /  20  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      96  71  96  71 /  20  20  20  20
SALINA          99  75 100  72 /  20  20  20  20
MCPHERSON       98  74  99  72 /  20  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE    100  74  99  75 /  10  10   0  10
CHANUTE         99  74  98  75 /  10  10   0  10
IOLA            98  73  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF   100  74  99  75 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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000
FXUS63 KTOP 230837
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
337 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Latest satellite water vapor loop shows drier air moving north
across eastern Kansas while the moisture axis extends from the
Western High Plains into the Dakotas. Shortwave trough was evident
over southwest Colorado into central New Mexico. Another trough was
moving across eastern Idaho at 08Z. Some elevated isolated showers
were developing across the CWA north of Interstate 70 in an area of
isentropic lift and within the low level jet. Expect the isolated
showers and thunderstorms to be possible through sunrise.

For today, the upper trough over Idaho will move across Wyoming
while the southwest trough over southern Colorado and New Mexico
will eject northeast out into the High Plains and western Kansas.
Models bring some energy as far east as central Kansas by 00Z
Sunday, then move it northeast into eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa overnight. Will continue with slight chances of precipitation
for tonight mainly across the western and northeast portions of the
CWA within the moisture axis. Shear is relatively weak and soundings
show relatively small CAPE tonight and not expecting storms to
become severe.

Drier air mixing down from near 750mb today will decrease dew points
into the into the upper 50 to middle 60s this afternoon. Combined
with temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 will produce heat
indices from 100 to 103 degrees today. Will keep the heat advisory
going through expiration at 8 PM this evening. Lows tonight will
range from the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Cold front remains on track to nudge southeast into the area Sunday
afternoon as the Pacific Northwest upper trough emerges into the
Northern Plains. Convergence along the boundary is weak at best, but
deep mixing should allow little convective inhibition to be left by
mid afternoon. Have kept small thunder mention going along it for
the afternoon and night. Weak and unidirectional wind fields should
keep any severe weather potential to isolated downburst winds. As
the upper wave continues east, the front could sink farther south
into Kansas late Sunday night into early Monday but limited moisture
should keep elevated convection limited at best and have maintained
only small chances near it. Could see some fog again develop in the
light winds near the boundary. Front should mix back northwest
Monday night into Tuesday as this wave moves off. Have some concern
northern and western locations could be brushed by activity moving
in from the Front Range and will keep small chances again for these
periods. As for temperatures and heat index values, coolest air
temps should be in the north nearer the front and any potential
precip, but with airmass not much cooler even behind the front,
highs should still reach the mid 90s near it and near triple digits
to the south Sunday through Tuesday as 850mb temps remain around
25C. Boundary layer moisture levels improve a bit for Sunday and
Monday and should support apparent temps a few degrees above air
temps, bringing continued concern for low-end Advisory potential.
Given somewhat borderline values today`s heat and the spotty
nature of the higher heat levels in previous days, have left
these periods without an Advisory and will see how conditions and
progs transpire in the next few periods.

A somewhat more organized precipitation potential remains for the
middle of the week, but guidance continues to differ in how it will
play out. The GFS is again more progressive with the next upper
trough`s eastward movement, with the ECMWF and GEM cutting off the
trough and moving it on at various speeds. Have kept the greater
chances in the Tuesday night though Wednesday night periods as
somewhat of a compromise. Temps will back off considerably as the
trough passes, but just when that will occur brings much uncertainty
to Wednesday`s highs in particular.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Confidence remains too low to insert any showers/thunder into
the TAF fcsts since coverage of any additional convection through
12z is expected to be isolated and mainly to the north. Will only
carry sct mid and high clouds thru the fcst. Light southeast winds
through 12z will become southerly and increase beyond 14z with
gusts around 20kts...decreasing again aft 01Z/23.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 230837
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
337 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Latest satellite water vapor loop shows drier air moving north
across eastern Kansas while the moisture axis extends from the
Western High Plains into the Dakotas. Shortwave trough was evident
over southwest Colorado into central New Mexico. Another trough was
moving across eastern Idaho at 08Z. Some elevated isolated showers
were developing across the CWA north of Interstate 70 in an area of
isentropic lift and within the low level jet. Expect the isolated
showers and thunderstorms to be possible through sunrise.

For today, the upper trough over Idaho will move across Wyoming
while the southwest trough over southern Colorado and New Mexico
will eject northeast out into the High Plains and western Kansas.
Models bring some energy as far east as central Kansas by 00Z
Sunday, then move it northeast into eastern Nebraska and western
Iowa overnight. Will continue with slight chances of precipitation
for tonight mainly across the western and northeast portions of the
CWA within the moisture axis. Shear is relatively weak and soundings
show relatively small CAPE tonight and not expecting storms to
become severe.

Drier air mixing down from near 750mb today will decrease dew points
into the into the upper 50 to middle 60s this afternoon. Combined
with temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 will produce heat
indices from 100 to 103 degrees today. Will keep the heat advisory
going through expiration at 8 PM this evening. Lows tonight will
range from the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Cold front remains on track to nudge southeast into the area Sunday
afternoon as the Pacific Northwest upper trough emerges into the
Northern Plains. Convergence along the boundary is weak at best, but
deep mixing should allow little convective inhibition to be left by
mid afternoon. Have kept small thunder mention going along it for
the afternoon and night. Weak and unidirectional wind fields should
keep any severe weather potential to isolated downburst winds. As
the upper wave continues east, the front could sink farther south
into Kansas late Sunday night into early Monday but limited moisture
should keep elevated convection limited at best and have maintained
only small chances near it. Could see some fog again develop in the
light winds near the boundary. Front should mix back northwest
Monday night into Tuesday as this wave moves off. Have some concern
northern and western locations could be brushed by activity moving
in from the Front Range and will keep small chances again for these
periods. As for temperatures and heat index values, coolest air
temps should be in the north nearer the front and any potential
precip, but with airmass not much cooler even behind the front,
highs should still reach the mid 90s near it and near triple digits
to the south Sunday through Tuesday as 850mb temps remain around
25C. Boundary layer moisture levels improve a bit for Sunday and
Monday and should support apparent temps a few degrees above air
temps, bringing continued concern for low-end Advisory potential.
Given somewhat borderline values today`s heat and the spotty
nature of the higher heat levels in previous days, have left
these periods without an Advisory and will see how conditions and
progs transpire in the next few periods.

A somewhat more organized precipitation potential remains for the
middle of the week, but guidance continues to differ in how it will
play out. The GFS is again more progressive with the next upper
trough`s eastward movement, with the ECMWF and GEM cutting off the
trough and moving it on at various speeds. Have kept the greater
chances in the Tuesday night though Wednesday night periods as
somewhat of a compromise. Temps will back off considerably as the
trough passes, but just when that will occur brings much uncertainty
to Wednesday`s highs in particular.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Confidence remains too low to insert any showers/thunder into
the TAF fcsts since coverage of any additional convection through
12z is expected to be isolated and mainly to the north. Will only
carry sct mid and high clouds thru the fcst. Light southeast winds
through 12z will become southerly and increase beyond 14z with
gusts around 20kts...decreasing again aft 01Z/23.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63





000
FXUS63 KGLD 230831
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HIGHER POPS FOR TRW. MOST
ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED THE REGION WITH ONLY NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING TRW/RW. CLEARING TREND FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME ISOLATED RW/TRW POSSIBLE THRU 12Z SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS GIVING THAT AREA HAS SEEN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SPOTS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
DECREASING WINDS AND SOME CLRING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FUNNEL PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE ENSUING
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXITS...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE WEEK WILL BE RETURNING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES WIDE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 230831
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
231 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HIGHER POPS FOR TRW. MOST
ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED THE REGION WITH ONLY NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING TRW/RW. CLEARING TREND FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME ISOLATED RW/TRW POSSIBLE THRU 12Z SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS GIVING THAT AREA HAS SEEN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SPOTS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
DECREASING WINDS AND SOME CLRING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL FUNNEL PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF THE ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE ENSUING
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXITS...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AS WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LATE WEEK WILL BE RETURNING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROVIDES WIDE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 230733
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
233 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

An upper level trough crossing New Mexico early this morning will
move out into the Central High Plains during the afternoon. 00z
NAM and 00z GFS were both in decent agreement that this upper
level system will move into central Kansas between 00z Sunday and
06z Sunday. Given moisture and mid level instability ahead of this
system am unable to completely rule out a few afternoon
thunderstorms as this upper level disturbance crosses western
Kansas. Late day CAPE values will range from 1000 to 2000 j/kg,
however 0-6km shear is forecast to be less than 25knots so any
thunderstorm which may develop late today/early this evening is
not expected to be severe. A few storms however may produce gusty
winds up to 50 mph.

Temperatures this afternoon will be a little tricky based on
cloud cover potential ahead of the upper level trough as it
crosses western Kansas during the day. At this time given several
hours of afternoon sun, the 850mb to 700mb temperatures from the
NAM and GFS at 00z Sunday, and the forecast mixing height will
stay close to the latest MET, MAV, and CONShort guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The weather pattern Sunday through the middle of next week will
generally consist of an upper level long wave trough positioned
across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies with a large
upper level high located across the eastern United States. A series
of shortwaves will move around the trough enhancing lift across the
Central High Plains. Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly
saturated through this period as moist air from the gulf continues
to feed into western Kansas. Towards the surface, a weak cold front
is progged to move through about half of the area Sunday shifting
winds to the north to northeast behind it with continued southerly
winds ahead of it. This front then moves back as a warm front Sunday
night into Monday morning before becoming stationary across central
Kansas through Wednesday night. This frontal boundary will be the
main focal point where thunderstorms are expected to develop
starting Sunday afternoon through Wednesday night. The best chance
of precipitation looks to be on Tuesday into Tuesday night as the
aforementioned upper level trough starts to shift eastward and
closer to the forecast area. Winds will generally be from the east
north of this boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler during this period with highs Sunday through
Tuesday generally in the lower to mid 90s and lows ranging from the
mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central
Kansas. Highs Wednesday look to range from the lower 80s across west
central Kansas to lower 90s across south central Kansas.

A drier period is expected for the remainder of the week as an upper
level ridge builds across the western United states and the upper
level trough shifts into the eastern United States. Skies become
mostly clear during this time frame with winds shifting back to more
of a southerly direction by Friday. Highs Thursday and Friday will
generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft
and 15000ft AGL. A trough of low pressure will be located near the
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  71  95  69 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  95  67  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  94  66  92  67 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  97  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  96  70  93  67 /  20  10  20  20
P28  99  74  99  71 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KDDC 230733
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
233 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

An upper level trough crossing New Mexico early this morning will
move out into the Central High Plains during the afternoon. 00z
NAM and 00z GFS were both in decent agreement that this upper
level system will move into central Kansas between 00z Sunday and
06z Sunday. Given moisture and mid level instability ahead of this
system am unable to completely rule out a few afternoon
thunderstorms as this upper level disturbance crosses western
Kansas. Late day CAPE values will range from 1000 to 2000 j/kg,
however 0-6km shear is forecast to be less than 25knots so any
thunderstorm which may develop late today/early this evening is
not expected to be severe. A few storms however may produce gusty
winds up to 50 mph.

Temperatures this afternoon will be a little tricky based on
cloud cover potential ahead of the upper level trough as it
crosses western Kansas during the day. At this time given several
hours of afternoon sun, the 850mb to 700mb temperatures from the
NAM and GFS at 00z Sunday, and the forecast mixing height will
stay close to the latest MET, MAV, and CONShort guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The weather pattern Sunday through the middle of next week will
generally consist of an upper level long wave trough positioned
across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies with a large
upper level high located across the eastern United States. A series
of shortwaves will move around the trough enhancing lift across the
Central High Plains. Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly
saturated through this period as moist air from the gulf continues
to feed into western Kansas. Towards the surface, a weak cold front
is progged to move through about half of the area Sunday shifting
winds to the north to northeast behind it with continued southerly
winds ahead of it. This front then moves back as a warm front Sunday
night into Monday morning before becoming stationary across central
Kansas through Wednesday night. This frontal boundary will be the
main focal point where thunderstorms are expected to develop
starting Sunday afternoon through Wednesday night. The best chance
of precipitation looks to be on Tuesday into Tuesday night as the
aforementioned upper level trough starts to shift eastward and
closer to the forecast area. Winds will generally be from the east
north of this boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler during this period with highs Sunday through
Tuesday generally in the lower to mid 90s and lows ranging from the
mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central
Kansas. Highs Wednesday look to range from the lower 80s across west
central Kansas to lower 90s across south central Kansas.

A drier period is expected for the remainder of the week as an upper
level ridge builds across the western United states and the upper
level trough shifts into the eastern United States. Skies become
mostly clear during this time frame with winds shifting back to more
of a southerly direction by Friday. Highs Thursday and Friday will
generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft
and 15000ft AGL. A trough of low pressure will be located near the
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  71  95  69 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  95  67  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  94  66  92  67 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  97  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  96  70  93  67 /  20  10  20  20
P28  99  74  99  71 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KDDC 230733
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
233 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

An upper level trough crossing New Mexico early this morning will
move out into the Central High Plains during the afternoon. 00z
NAM and 00z GFS were both in decent agreement that this upper
level system will move into central Kansas between 00z Sunday and
06z Sunday. Given moisture and mid level instability ahead of this
system am unable to completely rule out a few afternoon
thunderstorms as this upper level disturbance crosses western
Kansas. Late day CAPE values will range from 1000 to 2000 j/kg,
however 0-6km shear is forecast to be less than 25knots so any
thunderstorm which may develop late today/early this evening is
not expected to be severe. A few storms however may produce gusty
winds up to 50 mph.

Temperatures this afternoon will be a little tricky based on
cloud cover potential ahead of the upper level trough as it
crosses western Kansas during the day. At this time given several
hours of afternoon sun, the 850mb to 700mb temperatures from the
NAM and GFS at 00z Sunday, and the forecast mixing height will
stay close to the latest MET, MAV, and CONShort guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The weather pattern Sunday through the middle of next week will
generally consist of an upper level long wave trough positioned
across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies with a large
upper level high located across the eastern United States. A series
of shortwaves will move around the trough enhancing lift across the
Central High Plains. Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly
saturated through this period as moist air from the gulf continues
to feed into western Kansas. Towards the surface, a weak cold front
is progged to move through about half of the area Sunday shifting
winds to the north to northeast behind it with continued southerly
winds ahead of it. This front then moves back as a warm front Sunday
night into Monday morning before becoming stationary across central
Kansas through Wednesday night. This frontal boundary will be the
main focal point where thunderstorms are expected to develop
starting Sunday afternoon through Wednesday night. The best chance
of precipitation looks to be on Tuesday into Tuesday night as the
aforementioned upper level trough starts to shift eastward and
closer to the forecast area. Winds will generally be from the east
north of this boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler during this period with highs Sunday through
Tuesday generally in the lower to mid 90s and lows ranging from the
mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central
Kansas. Highs Wednesday look to range from the lower 80s across west
central Kansas to lower 90s across south central Kansas.

A drier period is expected for the remainder of the week as an upper
level ridge builds across the western United states and the upper
level trough shifts into the eastern United States. Skies become
mostly clear during this time frame with winds shifting back to more
of a southerly direction by Friday. Highs Thursday and Friday will
generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft
and 15000ft AGL. A trough of low pressure will be located near the
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  71  95  69 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  95  67  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  94  66  92  67 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  97  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  96  70  93  67 /  20  10  20  20
P28  99  74  99  71 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KDDC 230733
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
233 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

An upper level trough crossing New Mexico early this morning will
move out into the Central High Plains during the afternoon. 00z
NAM and 00z GFS were both in decent agreement that this upper
level system will move into central Kansas between 00z Sunday and
06z Sunday. Given moisture and mid level instability ahead of this
system am unable to completely rule out a few afternoon
thunderstorms as this upper level disturbance crosses western
Kansas. Late day CAPE values will range from 1000 to 2000 j/kg,
however 0-6km shear is forecast to be less than 25knots so any
thunderstorm which may develop late today/early this evening is
not expected to be severe. A few storms however may produce gusty
winds up to 50 mph.

Temperatures this afternoon will be a little tricky based on
cloud cover potential ahead of the upper level trough as it
crosses western Kansas during the day. At this time given several
hours of afternoon sun, the 850mb to 700mb temperatures from the
NAM and GFS at 00z Sunday, and the forecast mixing height will
stay close to the latest MET, MAV, and CONShort guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

The weather pattern Sunday through the middle of next week will
generally consist of an upper level long wave trough positioned
across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies with a large
upper level high located across the eastern United States. A series
of shortwaves will move around the trough enhancing lift across the
Central High Plains. Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly
saturated through this period as moist air from the gulf continues
to feed into western Kansas. Towards the surface, a weak cold front
is progged to move through about half of the area Sunday shifting
winds to the north to northeast behind it with continued southerly
winds ahead of it. This front then moves back as a warm front Sunday
night into Monday morning before becoming stationary across central
Kansas through Wednesday night. This frontal boundary will be the
main focal point where thunderstorms are expected to develop
starting Sunday afternoon through Wednesday night. The best chance
of precipitation looks to be on Tuesday into Tuesday night as the
aforementioned upper level trough starts to shift eastward and
closer to the forecast area. Winds will generally be from the east
north of this boundary Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler during this period with highs Sunday through
Tuesday generally in the lower to mid 90s and lows ranging from the
mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central
Kansas. Highs Wednesday look to range from the lower 80s across west
central Kansas to lower 90s across south central Kansas.

A drier period is expected for the remainder of the week as an upper
level ridge builds across the western United states and the upper
level trough shifts into the eastern United States. Skies become
mostly clear during this time frame with winds shifting back to more
of a southerly direction by Friday. Highs Thursday and Friday will
generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft
and 15000ft AGL. A trough of low pressure will be located near the
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  71  95  69 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  95  67  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  94  66  92  67 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  97  68  95  69 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  96  70  93  67 /  20  10  20  20
P28  99  74  99  71 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KDDC 230700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

An upper level trough crossing New Mexico early this morning will
move out into the Central High Plains during the afternoon. 00z
NAM and 00z GFS were both in decent agreement that this upper
level system will move into central Kansas between 00z Sunday and
06z Sunday. Given moisture and mid level instability ahead of this
system am unable to completely rule out a few afternoon
thunderstorms as this upper level disturbance crosses western
Kansas. Late day CAPE values will range from 1000 to 2000 j/kg,
however 0-6km shear is forecast to be less than 25knots so any
thunderstorm which may develop late today/early this evening is
not expected to be severe. A few storms however may produce gusty
winds up to 50 mph.

Temperatures this afternoon will be a little tricky based on
cloud cover potential ahead of the upper level trough as it
crosses western Kansas during the day. At this time given several
hours of afternoon sun, the 850mb to 700mb temperatures from the
NAM and GFS at 00z Sunday, and the forecast mixing height will
stay close to the latest MET, MAV, and CONShort guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft
and 15000ft AGL. A trough of low pressure will be located near the
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  71  94  69 /  10  20  10  20
GCK  95  67  93  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  94  66  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  68  95  69 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  96  70  94  68 /  20  20  10  20
P28  99  74  98  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KDDC 230700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

An upper level trough crossing New Mexico early this morning will
move out into the Central High Plains during the afternoon. 00z
NAM and 00z GFS were both in decent agreement that this upper
level system will move into central Kansas between 00z Sunday and
06z Sunday. Given moisture and mid level instability ahead of this
system am unable to completely rule out a few afternoon
thunderstorms as this upper level disturbance crosses western
Kansas. Late day CAPE values will range from 1000 to 2000 j/kg,
however 0-6km shear is forecast to be less than 25knots so any
thunderstorm which may develop late today/early this evening is
not expected to be severe. A few storms however may produce gusty
winds up to 50 mph.

Temperatures this afternoon will be a little tricky based on
cloud cover potential ahead of the upper level trough as it
crosses western Kansas during the day. At this time given several
hours of afternoon sun, the 850mb to 700mb temperatures from the
NAM and GFS at 00z Sunday, and the forecast mixing height will
stay close to the latest MET, MAV, and CONShort guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft
and 15000ft AGL. A trough of low pressure will be located near the
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  97  71  94  69 /  10  20  10  20
GCK  95  67  93  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  94  66  93  67 /  10  10  10  20
LBL  97  68  95  69 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  96  70  94  68 /  20  20  10  20
P28  99  74  98  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KGLD 230520
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HIGHER POPS FOR TRW. MOST
ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED THE REGION WITH ONLY NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING TRW/RW. CLEARING TREND FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME ISOLATED RW/TRW POSSIBLE THRU 12Z SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS GIVING THAT AREA HAS SEEN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SPOTS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
DECREASING WINDS AND SOME CLRING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 230520
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1120 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF HIGHER POPS FOR TRW. MOST
ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED THE REGION WITH ONLY NE PORTIONS OF THE CWA
STILL SEEING TRW/RW. CLEARING TREND FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME ISOLATED RW/TRW POSSIBLE THRU 12Z SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR ALL AREAS GIVING THAT AREA HAS SEEN
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SPOTS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
DECREASING WINDS AND SOME CLRING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

RW/TRW FROM EARLIER WILL GIVE WAY TO FOGGY CONDITIONS THRU 13Z
SATURDAY. EXPECTING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO SET UP AS WINDS
SLACKEN GIVING GLD/MCK 3-4SM WITH 1 1/2SM AT TIMES. BY 13Z...VFR
CONDITIONS W/ SCT LOW/MID CLDS. WINDS BECM LGT/VAR THEN BY 13Z WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 230515
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

At 00z Saturday a -17c 500mb trough was centered over Idaho with
a 300mb jet streak extending from the base of the this upper
trough north northeast into the central high plains. Further south
near the right exit region of the upper level jet another upper
level disturbance across southwest New Mexico. Just east of this
upper level system a wedge of higher 700mb and 500mb dew points
were observed across west Texas and western Kansas. Scattered
convection which was ongoing across the Texas Panhandle and
southwest Kansas appeared to relate well to the 700mb moisture
axis ahead of the approaching New Mexico upper level system. At the
surface at 00z Saturday a trough extended from northeast New
Mexico into southwest Kansas. A cold front was located from
eastern Colorado into south central Nebraska. 850mb temperatures
varied from 22c at North Platte to 27c at Dodge City to 29c at
Amarillo and +13c 700mb temperatures were reported at Dodge City
and Amarillo at at 00z Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft
and 15000ft AGL. A trough of low pressure will be located near the
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  94  69  96 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  67  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  66  93  67  94 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  69  95  69  96 /  10  20  20  20
HYS  69  94  68  95 /  20  10  20  30
P28  73  98  70  98 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KDDC 230515
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1215 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

At 00z Saturday a -17c 500mb trough was centered over Idaho with
a 300mb jet streak extending from the base of the this upper
trough north northeast into the central high plains. Further south
near the right exit region of the upper level jet another upper
level disturbance across southwest New Mexico. Just east of this
upper level system a wedge of higher 700mb and 500mb dew points
were observed across west Texas and western Kansas. Scattered
convection which was ongoing across the Texas Panhandle and
southwest Kansas appeared to relate well to the 700mb moisture
axis ahead of the approaching New Mexico upper level system. At the
surface at 00z Saturday a trough extended from northeast New
Mexico into southwest Kansas. A cold front was located from
eastern Colorado into south central Nebraska. 850mb temperatures
varied from 22c at North Platte to 27c at Dodge City to 29c at
Amarillo and +13c 700mb temperatures were reported at Dodge City
and Amarillo at at 00z Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Scattered convection will gradually taper off through the predawn
hours as the right exit region of an upper level jet lifts north
towards the Nebraska border. 00z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
that ceilings overnight and early Saturday will be between 7000ft
and 15000ft AGL. A trough of low pressure will be located near the
Colorado border during the day on Saturday which will keep the
surface winds southerly across western Kansas. Wind speeds will
increase into the 15 to 20knot range by late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  94  69  96 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  67  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  20
EHA  66  93  67  94 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  69  95  69  96 /  10  20  20  20
HYS  69  94  68  95 /  20  10  20  30
P28  73  98  70  98 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KTOP 230458
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1158 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough over southern AZ will lift northeast into
eastern CO by Saturday afternoon. A more amplified upper level
trough across eastern WA and eastern OR will dig southeast into
western WY and western CO by Saturday afternoon. The amplified upper
level trough across WY and CO will cause the down stream upper level
ridge axis to amplify across the mid MS river valley during the day
on Saturday.

This afternoon there were two separate outflow boundaries located
across the CWA. One outflow boundary extended from near Minneapolis,
northeast towards Hiawatha. A second outflow boundary was located
from south of Abilene and extended east-southeast to south of
Emporia, then east-northeast across southwest Anderson county to
west of Garnett. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have been
developing all afternoon along these surface boundaries. A few of
these storms may be strong with the potential for 50 MPH wind gusts
and small hail. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with these
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms should dissipate towards sunset.
As the lee surface low deepens across northeast CO and northwest KS
tonight, the stronger isentropic lift will shift northward across
central NE. Thunderstorms should form well north and west of the CWA
after midnight. Southwesterly flow aloft on the western edge of the
H5 ridge axis will keep any thunderstorms that form on the high
plains this evening, well west and north of the CWA through the
early morning hours of Saturday.

Saturday looks dry. The H5 ridge axis across the MS river valley
will amplify and the western periphery of the ridge axis will expand
west across eastern KS. Afternoon thunderstorms that develop across
western KS and eastern CO will move north into central NE. High
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s with some 100
degree readings possible across the area tomorrow afternoon. The
operational models show deeper mixing and the deeper 850mb moisture
advecting farther northeast of the CWA across northern MO and IA.
Thus, heat indices may only range from 100 to 104 degrees. However,
the models have been mixing out dewpoints into the mid 60s the past
couple days, even though surface dewpoints have remained in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Therefore, I have decided to keep the heat
advisory in effect through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

By Sunday morning the upper ridge amplifies over the eastern US
while a strong upper low lifts over the northern Plains. At the
surface the boundary that has been quasi-stationary across the
region will slowly migrate eastward as those upper level systems
advance. This will leave a slight chance for storms in the
northern counties on Sunday morning. Models are suggesting weak
shortwaves within the southwest flow may move over the region
enhancing the large scale lift over the boundary. One is possible
Sunday night into Monday morning and more likely to affect the
northern counties again. The longwave trough is then forecast to exit
the Rockies around mid-week bringing better chances for precip as
the front gets driven further to the south. At the moment the
ECMWF disagrees with the GFS and GEM on the how this system will
approach the area. A majority of the GFS ensembles agree with the
operational run, which suggests the quicker solution, and the
front clearing the area by Wednesday night. The ECMWF wants to cut
off the southern trough causing it to slowly drift towards eastern
KS. This would delay the front and precip later into the week.
Therefore have gone with the GFS solution only keeping slight pops
in on Thursday in case the scenario ECMWF plays out. The
temperatures will continue to stay warm with afternoon heat
indices in the low 100s through Tuesday. Cooler air is forecast to
move southward behind the departing wave and surface cold front.
Temperatures during this period could be slightly below normal the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Confidence remains too low to insert any showers/thunder into
the TAF fcsts since coverage of any additional convection through
12z is expected to be isolated and mainly to the north. Will only
carry sct mid and high clouds thru the fcst. Light southeast winds
through 12z will become southerly and increase beyond 14z with
gusts around 20kts...decreasing again aft 01Z/23.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 230458
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1158 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough over southern AZ will lift northeast into
eastern CO by Saturday afternoon. A more amplified upper level
trough across eastern WA and eastern OR will dig southeast into
western WY and western CO by Saturday afternoon. The amplified upper
level trough across WY and CO will cause the down stream upper level
ridge axis to amplify across the mid MS river valley during the day
on Saturday.

This afternoon there were two separate outflow boundaries located
across the CWA. One outflow boundary extended from near Minneapolis,
northeast towards Hiawatha. A second outflow boundary was located
from south of Abilene and extended east-southeast to south of
Emporia, then east-northeast across southwest Anderson county to
west of Garnett. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have been
developing all afternoon along these surface boundaries. A few of
these storms may be strong with the potential for 50 MPH wind gusts
and small hail. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with these
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms should dissipate towards sunset.
As the lee surface low deepens across northeast CO and northwest KS
tonight, the stronger isentropic lift will shift northward across
central NE. Thunderstorms should form well north and west of the CWA
after midnight. Southwesterly flow aloft on the western edge of the
H5 ridge axis will keep any thunderstorms that form on the high
plains this evening, well west and north of the CWA through the
early morning hours of Saturday.

Saturday looks dry. The H5 ridge axis across the MS river valley
will amplify and the western periphery of the ridge axis will expand
west across eastern KS. Afternoon thunderstorms that develop across
western KS and eastern CO will move north into central NE. High
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s with some 100
degree readings possible across the area tomorrow afternoon. The
operational models show deeper mixing and the deeper 850mb moisture
advecting farther northeast of the CWA across northern MO and IA.
Thus, heat indices may only range from 100 to 104 degrees. However,
the models have been mixing out dewpoints into the mid 60s the past
couple days, even though surface dewpoints have remained in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Therefore, I have decided to keep the heat
advisory in effect through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

By Sunday morning the upper ridge amplifies over the eastern US
while a strong upper low lifts over the northern Plains. At the
surface the boundary that has been quasi-stationary across the
region will slowly migrate eastward as those upper level systems
advance. This will leave a slight chance for storms in the
northern counties on Sunday morning. Models are suggesting weak
shortwaves within the southwest flow may move over the region
enhancing the large scale lift over the boundary. One is possible
Sunday night into Monday morning and more likely to affect the
northern counties again. The longwave trough is then forecast to exit
the Rockies around mid-week bringing better chances for precip as
the front gets driven further to the south. At the moment the
ECMWF disagrees with the GFS and GEM on the how this system will
approach the area. A majority of the GFS ensembles agree with the
operational run, which suggests the quicker solution, and the
front clearing the area by Wednesday night. The ECMWF wants to cut
off the southern trough causing it to slowly drift towards eastern
KS. This would delay the front and precip later into the week.
Therefore have gone with the GFS solution only keeping slight pops
in on Thursday in case the scenario ECMWF plays out. The
temperatures will continue to stay warm with afternoon heat
indices in the low 100s through Tuesday. Cooler air is forecast to
move southward behind the departing wave and surface cold front.
Temperatures during this period could be slightly below normal the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Confidence remains too low to insert any showers/thunder into
the TAF fcsts since coverage of any additional convection through
12z is expected to be isolated and mainly to the north. Will only
carry sct mid and high clouds thru the fcst. Light southeast winds
through 12z will become southerly and increase beyond 14z with
gusts around 20kts...decreasing again aft 01Z/23.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KICT 230442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR AND EXCEEDING 105 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THAT BISECTS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED BETWEEN 103 AND 109 THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE NEXT WAVE THAT IMPACTS THE REGION IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER NEBRASKA AS THE WAVE LIFTS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE WAVE ROTATES IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA A COUPLE OF TIMES. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...WITH
LIMITED CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT FEEL BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER CHANCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT FROM THE EARLIER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND NEAR TO JUST EXCEEDING 100.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOOKS TO COOL DOWN SOME FOR THE EXTENDED AS
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING IS
QUESTIONABLE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
THE COOL DOWN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE BOUNDARY AND THUS PRECIPITATION AROUND
LONGER THAN THE GFS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGEVITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF LABOR DAY
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ON ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70...POSSIBLE AFFECTING KRSL
AND KSLN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EMANATING FROM THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH COULD BRUSH THE KRSL TERMINAL
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE DIURNALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MORE REMOTE
ACROSS THE AREA.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 100  73  98 /  10  10  20  20
NEWTON          75  99  74  99 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        75 100  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75 100  74 100 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         73  98  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      72  99  73  95 /  20  20  20  20
SALINA          74  99  74  97 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       74  99  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  99  73  99 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  99  73  99 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 230335
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
935 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT OUT TO REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AND TO CANCEL REMAINING ZONES IN THE
WATCH. THE REMAINING ACTIVITY ON REGIONAL RADAR MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES ATTM...BUT STILL MOVING NORTH. THE SEVERE THREAT
HAS DIMINISHED...BUT STILL EXPECT TRW/RW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS THAT STILL COULD BRING SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. REST OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 230218
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
818 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. BULK
OF SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH COULD STILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 230218
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
818 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. BULK
OF SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH COULD STILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 230218
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
818 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. BULK
OF SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH COULD STILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 230218
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
818 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPDATE TO FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. BULK
OF SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.
AREAS TO THE SOUTH COULD STILL SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 222354 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough over southern AZ will lift northeast into
eastern CO by Saturday afternoon. A more amplified upper level
trough across eastern WA and eastern OR will dig southeast into
western WY and western CO by Saturday afternoon. The amplified upper
level trough across WY and CO will cause the down stream upper level
ridge axis to amplify across the mid MS river valley during the day
on Saturday.

This afternoon there were two separate outflow boundaries located
across the CWA. One outflow boundary extended from near Minneapolis,
northeast towards Hiawatha. A second outflow boundary was located
from south of Abilene and extended east-southeast to south of
Emporia, then east-northeast across southwest Anderson county to
west of Garnett. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have been
developing all afternoon along these surface boundaries. A few of
these storms may be strong with the potential for 50 MPH wind gusts
and small hail. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with these
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms should dissipate towards sunset.
As the lee surface low deepens across northeast CO and northwest KS
tonight, the stronger isentropic lift will shift northward across
central NE. Thunderstorms should form well north and west of the CWA
after midnight. Southwesterly flow aloft on the western edge of the
H5 ridge axis will keep any thunderstorms that form on the high
plains this evening, well west and north of the CWA through the
early morning hours of Saturday.

Saturday looks dry. The H5 ridge axis across the MS river valley
will amplify and the western periphery of the ridge axis will expand
west across eastern KS. Afternoon thunderstorms that develop across
western KS and eastern CO will move north into central NE. High
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s with some 100
degree readings possible across the area tomorrow afternoon. The
operational models show deeper mixing and the deeper 850mb moisture
advecting farther northeast of the CWA across northern MO and IA.
Thus, heat indices may only range from 100 to 104 degrees. However,
the models have been mixing out dewpoints into the mid 60s the past
couple days, even though surface dewpoints have remained in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Therefore, I have decided to keep the heat
advisory in effect through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

By Sunday morning the upper ridge amplifies over the eastern US
while a strong upper low lifts over the northern Plains. At the
surface the boundary that has been quasi-stationary across the
region will slowly migrate eastward as those upper level systems
advance. This will leave a slight chance for storms in the
northern counties on Sunday morning. Models are suggesting weak
shortwaves within the southwest flow may move over the region
enhancing the large scale lift over the boundary. One is possible
Sunday night into Monday morning and more likely to affect the
northern counties again. The longwave trough is then forecast to exit
the Rockies around mid-week bringing better chances for precip as
the front gets driven further to the south. At the moment the
ECMWF disagrees with the GFS and GEM on the how this system will
approach the area. A majority of the GFS ensembles agree with the
operational run, which suggests the quicker solution, and the
front clearing the area by Wednesday night. The ECMWF wants to cut
off the southern trough causing it to slowly drift towards eastern
KS. This would delay the front and precip later into the week.
Therefore have gone with the GFS solution only keeping slight pops
in on Thursday in case the scenario ECMWF plays out. The
temperatures will continue to stay warm with afternoon heat
indices in the low 100s through Tuesday. Cooler air is forecast to
move southward behind the departing wave and surface cold front.
Temperatures during this period could be slightly below normal the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Convection in the vcnty of the KTOP/KFOE has dissipated. Confidence
is too low to add any additional convection potential near any of
the TAF sites through the remainder of the fcst. Will therefore
carry VFR conditions with sct-bkn mid and high clouds with south
to southeast winds under 10 kts increasing to around 12 kts with
gusts near 20 kts aft 14z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 222354 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
654 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough over southern AZ will lift northeast into
eastern CO by Saturday afternoon. A more amplified upper level
trough across eastern WA and eastern OR will dig southeast into
western WY and western CO by Saturday afternoon. The amplified upper
level trough across WY and CO will cause the down stream upper level
ridge axis to amplify across the mid MS river valley during the day
on Saturday.

This afternoon there were two separate outflow boundaries located
across the CWA. One outflow boundary extended from near Minneapolis,
northeast towards Hiawatha. A second outflow boundary was located
from south of Abilene and extended east-southeast to south of
Emporia, then east-northeast across southwest Anderson county to
west of Garnett. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have been
developing all afternoon along these surface boundaries. A few of
these storms may be strong with the potential for 50 MPH wind gusts
and small hail. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with these
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms should dissipate towards sunset.
As the lee surface low deepens across northeast CO and northwest KS
tonight, the stronger isentropic lift will shift northward across
central NE. Thunderstorms should form well north and west of the CWA
after midnight. Southwesterly flow aloft on the western edge of the
H5 ridge axis will keep any thunderstorms that form on the high
plains this evening, well west and north of the CWA through the
early morning hours of Saturday.

Saturday looks dry. The H5 ridge axis across the MS river valley
will amplify and the western periphery of the ridge axis will expand
west across eastern KS. Afternoon thunderstorms that develop across
western KS and eastern CO will move north into central NE. High
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s with some 100
degree readings possible across the area tomorrow afternoon. The
operational models show deeper mixing and the deeper 850mb moisture
advecting farther northeast of the CWA across northern MO and IA.
Thus, heat indices may only range from 100 to 104 degrees. However,
the models have been mixing out dewpoints into the mid 60s the past
couple days, even though surface dewpoints have remained in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Therefore, I have decided to keep the heat
advisory in effect through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

By Sunday morning the upper ridge amplifies over the eastern US
while a strong upper low lifts over the northern Plains. At the
surface the boundary that has been quasi-stationary across the
region will slowly migrate eastward as those upper level systems
advance. This will leave a slight chance for storms in the
northern counties on Sunday morning. Models are suggesting weak
shortwaves within the southwest flow may move over the region
enhancing the large scale lift over the boundary. One is possible
Sunday night into Monday morning and more likely to affect the
northern counties again. The longwave trough is then forecast to exit
the Rockies around mid-week bringing better chances for precip as
the front gets driven further to the south. At the moment the
ECMWF disagrees with the GFS and GEM on the how this system will
approach the area. A majority of the GFS ensembles agree with the
operational run, which suggests the quicker solution, and the
front clearing the area by Wednesday night. The ECMWF wants to cut
off the southern trough causing it to slowly drift towards eastern
KS. This would delay the front and precip later into the week.
Therefore have gone with the GFS solution only keeping slight pops
in on Thursday in case the scenario ECMWF plays out. The
temperatures will continue to stay warm with afternoon heat
indices in the low 100s through Tuesday. Cooler air is forecast to
move southward behind the departing wave and surface cold front.
Temperatures during this period could be slightly below normal the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Convection in the vcnty of the KTOP/KFOE has dissipated. Confidence
is too low to add any additional convection potential near any of
the TAF sites through the remainder of the fcst. Will therefore
carry VFR conditions with sct-bkn mid and high clouds with south
to southeast winds under 10 kts increasing to around 12 kts with
gusts near 20 kts aft 14z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KICT 222335
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR AND EXCEEDING 105 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THAT BISECTS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED BETWEEN 103 AND 109 THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE NEXT WAVE THAT IMPACTS THE REGION IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER NEBRASKA AS THE WAVE LIFTS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE WAVE ROTATES IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA A COUPLE OF TIMES. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...WITH
LIMITED CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT FEEL BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER CHANCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT FROM THE EARLIER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND NEAR TO JUST EXCEEDING 100.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOOKS TO COOL DOWN SOME FOR THE EXTENDED AS
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING IS
QUESTIONABLE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
THE COOL DOWN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE BOUNDARY AND THUS PRECIPITATION AROUND
LONGER THAN THE GFS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGEVITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF LABOR DAY
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MORE
REMOTE.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 100  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
NEWTON          75  99  74  99 /  20  10  20  20
ELDORADO        75 100  75  99 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75 100  74 100 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         73  98  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      72  99  73  95 /  30  20  20  20
SALINA          74  99  74  97 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       74  99  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  99  73  99 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            74  99  73  99 /  20  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 222335
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR AND EXCEEDING 105 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THAT BISECTS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED BETWEEN 103 AND 109 THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE NEXT WAVE THAT IMPACTS THE REGION IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER NEBRASKA AS THE WAVE LIFTS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE WAVE ROTATES IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA A COUPLE OF TIMES. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...WITH
LIMITED CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT FEEL BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER CHANCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT FROM THE EARLIER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND NEAR TO JUST EXCEEDING 100.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOOKS TO COOL DOWN SOME FOR THE EXTENDED AS
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING IS
QUESTIONABLE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
THE COOL DOWN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE BOUNDARY AND THUS PRECIPITATION AROUND
LONGER THAN THE GFS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGEVITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF LABOR DAY
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MORE
REMOTE.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  74  99 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 100  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
NEWTON          75  99  74  99 /  20  10  20  20
ELDORADO        75 100  75  99 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75 100  74 100 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         73  98  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      72  99  73  95 /  30  20  20  20
SALINA          74  99  74  97 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       74  99  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  99  73  99 /  20  10   0   0
IOLA            74  99  73  99 /  20  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 222330
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect GCK, DDC, and especially HYS
terminals through mid evening as an upper level disturbance moves
northeast across western Kansas. By late evening, the convective
threat will diminish with loss of heating, and winds will revert
back to the south at 10 to 15 knots overnight. Winds will increase
by midday Saturday to around 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots
as a fairly tight pressure gradient remains with a leeside low
continuing across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  70  94 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  68  96  67  93 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  66  96  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  70 101  69  95 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  69  98  69  94 /  40  10  20  10
P28  74 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 222330
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect GCK, DDC, and especially HYS
terminals through mid evening as an upper level disturbance moves
northeast across western Kansas. By late evening, the convective
threat will diminish with loss of heating, and winds will revert
back to the south at 10 to 15 knots overnight. Winds will increase
by midday Saturday to around 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots
as a fairly tight pressure gradient remains with a leeside low
continuing across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  70  94 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  68  96  67  93 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  66  96  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  70 101  69  95 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  69  98  69  94 /  40  10  20  10
P28  74 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 222330
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect GCK, DDC, and especially HYS
terminals through mid evening as an upper level disturbance moves
northeast across western Kansas. By late evening, the convective
threat will diminish with loss of heating, and winds will revert
back to the south at 10 to 15 knots overnight. Winds will increase
by midday Saturday to around 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots
as a fairly tight pressure gradient remains with a leeside low
continuing across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  70  94 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  68  96  67  93 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  66  96  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  70 101  69  95 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  69  98  69  94 /  40  10  20  10
P28  74 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 222330
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect GCK, DDC, and especially HYS
terminals through mid evening as an upper level disturbance moves
northeast across western Kansas. By late evening, the convective
threat will diminish with loss of heating, and winds will revert
back to the south at 10 to 15 knots overnight. Winds will increase
by midday Saturday to around 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots
as a fairly tight pressure gradient remains with a leeside low
continuing across eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  70  94 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  68  96  67  93 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  66  96  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  70 101  69  95 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  69  98  69  94 /  40  10  20  10
P28  74 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KGLD 222327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE AREA...SO HAVE SENT OUT UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE CHANGED WORDING TO SHOW MORE
CERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE VERSUS CHANCE/LIKELY WORDING. KEPT
SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST AS WELL. MADE SOME TEMPERATURE TWEAKS
OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATES FORTHCOMING AS
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WX CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 222327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE AREA...SO HAVE SENT OUT UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE CHANGED WORDING TO SHOW MORE
CERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE VERSUS CHANCE/LIKELY WORDING. KEPT
SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST AS WELL. MADE SOME TEMPERATURE TWEAKS
OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATES FORTHCOMING AS
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WX CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 222327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE AREA...SO HAVE SENT OUT UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE CHANGED WORDING TO SHOW MORE
CERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE VERSUS CHANCE/LIKELY WORDING. KEPT
SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST AS WELL. MADE SOME TEMPERATURE TWEAKS
OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATES FORTHCOMING AS
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WX CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 222327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE AREA...SO HAVE SENT OUT UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE CHANGED WORDING TO SHOW MORE
CERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE VERSUS CHANCE/LIKELY WORDING. KEPT
SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST AS WELL. MADE SOME TEMPERATURE TWEAKS
OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATES FORTHCOMING AS
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WX CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MIX OF VFR/MVFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z AS REGION SEEING SEVERE
WEATHER. CEILINGS BKN025-035 IN THUNDER WITH VSBY NEAR 3SM AT
TIMES. BY 07Z...MAINLY VFR COND THRU REST OF PERIOD. MCK MAY SEE
MVFR FOG TO 3SM FROM 09Z-14Z. WINDS THRU 04Z VRB25G50KTS AT TIMES
TO ACCT FOR THUNDER...OTHERWISE ESE 10-20KTS BECM NE 5-15KTS BY
07Z. FRONT LIFTING THRU AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY WILL BRING SHIFT OF
WINDS TO THE WSW 5-15KTS FROM 14Z ONWARD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 222258
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
458 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 459 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE AREA...SO HAVE SENT OUT UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE CHANGED WORDING TO SHOW MORE
CERTAINTY IN AREAL COVERAGE VERSUS CHANCE/LIKELY WORDING. KEPT
SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST AS WELL. MADE SOME TEMPERATURE TWEAKS
OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK. UPDATES FORTHCOMING AS
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WX CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 222104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday except near scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Saturday
afternoon. A vigorous upper level trough in western New Mexico will
move across western Kansas into central Nebraska by Saturday
morning, and a second upper level trough will move into western
Kansas Saturday afternoon. A surface low centered near the Colorado
border west of Johnson City will move into northwest Kansas by early
Saturday morning and into central Nebraska by noon Saturday. A weak
stationary front extending from the surface low into northeastern
Kansas will move little this afternoon but will begin to lift north
as a warm front tonight. Very moist air in the mid levels of the
atmosphere and strong surface heating will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms by 21Z at all TAF sites. More
organized thunderstorms will evolve in northern Kansas after 00Z and
may affect the HYS area through 03Z. Scattered to broken clouds near
100 will persist with ceilings near 060 and visibilities locally
near 3 miles in the vicinity of thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  70  94 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  68  96  67  93 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  66  96  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  70 101  69  95 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  69  98  69  94 /  40  10  20  10
P28  74 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Ruthi






000
FXUS63 KDDC 222104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
404 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 404 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Hot temperatures and periodic tstorm chances will continue for the extended
period. On Sunday, a weak front will move across the region, although
temperature advection associated with the front is not that strong.
The net result is continued temperatures in the 90s. A few thunderstorms
may develop towards the afternoon and evening hours along the front.
This front will stall out across the region towards the beginning of
the next business week. The ECMWF does continue the trend of keeping
at least 2/3rds of the CWA in the warm sector, so not confident on
much of a cool down in averaging the area as a whole. Tstorms during
this period will remain isolated/widely scattered. The highest chance
for storms is during the middle portion of next week as a trof with
upper level dynamics moves across the western Kansas. We could also
see the "coolest" temperatures Wednesday/Thursday, but really, temperatures
will be slightly below or near normal. Beyond that, stuck with the allblend
temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF would suggest slightly cooler temperatures
than compared to the official grids to close out the next business week.
This would not last long though, as warm air advection returns ahead
of the next synoptic trof approaching from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday except near scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Saturday
afternoon. A vigorous upper level trough in western New Mexico will
move across western Kansas into central Nebraska by Saturday
morning, and a second upper level trough will move into western
Kansas Saturday afternoon. A surface low centered near the Colorado
border west of Johnson City will move into northwest Kansas by early
Saturday morning and into central Nebraska by noon Saturday. A weak
stationary front extending from the surface low into northeastern
Kansas will move little this afternoon but will begin to lift north
as a warm front tonight. Very moist air in the mid levels of the
atmosphere and strong surface heating will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms by 21Z at all TAF sites. More
organized thunderstorms will evolve in northern Kansas after 00Z and
may affect the HYS area through 03Z. Scattered to broken clouds near
100 will persist with ceilings near 060 and visibilities locally
near 3 miles in the vicinity of thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  70  94 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  68  96  67  93 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  66  96  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  70 101  69  95 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  69  98  69  94 /  40  10  20  10
P28  74 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Ruthi







000
FXUS63 KGLD 222059
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 222059
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM ENE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FROM YUMA COUNTY COLORADO EAST ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
AFTERNOON STORMS IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY...MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AT THIS POINT AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR INITIATION...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. ON
TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES BEHIND IT. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MAINLY DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED DURING PEAK HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 222054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Short Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday except near scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Saturday
afternoon. A vigorous upper level trough in western New Mexico will
move across western Kansas into central Nebraska by Saturday
morning, and a second upper level trough will move into western
Kansas Saturday afternoon. A surface low centered near the Colorado
border west of Johnson City will move into northwest Kansas by early
Saturday morning and into central Nebraska by noon Saturday. A weak
stationary front extending from the surface low into northeastern
Kansas will move little this afternoon but will begin to lift north
as a warm front tonight. Very moist air in the mid levels of the
atmosphere and strong surface heating will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms by 21Z at all TAF sites. More
organized thunderstorms will evolve in northern Kansas after 00Z and
may affect the HYS area through 03Z. Scattered to broken clouds near
100 will persist with ceilings near 060 and visibilities locally
near 3 miles in the vicinity of thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  70  94 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  68  96  67  93 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  66  96  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  70 101  69  95 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  69  98  69  94 /  40  10  20  10
P28  74 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Ruthi







000
FXUS63 KDDC 222054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
354 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Short Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Subtropical high pressure will continue along the Gulf Coast while a
progressive upper level long wave trough gradually progresses toward
the central part of the country by mid week. Temperatures will
remain well above seasonal averages through the weekend with only
brief cooling behind a weak cold front Saturday night and Sunday.
The numerical models are in good agreement in the near term and
appear reasonable, although they have struggled with the position of
the weak surface trough/stationary front extending from southeast
Colorado into northeast Kansas. The biggest challenge for the short
term is anticipating evolution of thunderstorms tonight and timing
the northward progression of the weak front as a modest low level
jet develops this evening.

Very rich mid level moisture covered the central United States this
morning with H7 dewpoints near 5C in the tropical plume extending
from old Mexico to the Central Plains. A vigorous upper level trough
was evident in central New Mexico early this afternoon, and the
upper level trough will progress across western Kansas to central
Nebraska by Saturday morning. An upper level vorticity maximum
evident in eastern Arizona will progress into Kansas Saturday
morning as the vigorous northern stream upper level trough over the
Pacific Northwest drops into the mean long wave trough position. A
subtropical jet streak with H25 winds in excess of 60kts will move
into eastern Colorado early tonight and into western Nebraska
Saturday morning. Upper level divergence in the entrance region of
the jet streak will support large scale upward vertical motion this
evening, especially across eastern Colorado into northwestern
Kansas.

Scattered thunderstorms with little organization developed early
this afternoon across far southwest Kansas, where surface
temperatures near 100 degrees overcame residual CIN on soundings.
Mid level flow in western Kansas was weak, and limited shear with
backing winds in the mid levels is not favorable for development of
rotating updrafts. The potential exists for microbursts with
inverted V soundings through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The better potential for more organized thunderstorms will exist
later this evening in northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas as
shear increases over rich low level moisture north of the surface
boundary. The boundary likely will lift northward slowly this
evening, and the best baroclinic zone likely will extend from
northwest Kansas to south central Nebraska by 06Z. Upward vertical
motion in the entrance region of the jet will support another area
of thunderstorms that will move from eastern Colorado into western
Kansas this evening. Divergence aloft should be sufficient to keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms going well into the night in
western Kansas, and some high based showers may persist until
sunrise. South winds 10 to 15 knots will keep temperatures warm
tonight, and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s can be expected.

Saturday will be very warm again with H8 temperatures from 25C to
30C during the afternoon hours. Weak upward vertical motion in
advance of the Arizona upper level trough likely will be sufficient
to support development of widely scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours. Instability will be marginal on Saturday with
dewpoints only in the 50s in southwest Kansas, but inverted V
soundings will support the potential for microbursts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday except near scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Saturday
afternoon. A vigorous upper level trough in western New Mexico will
move across western Kansas into central Nebraska by Saturday
morning, and a second upper level trough will move into western
Kansas Saturday afternoon. A surface low centered near the Colorado
border west of Johnson City will move into northwest Kansas by early
Saturday morning and into central Nebraska by noon Saturday. A weak
stationary front extending from the surface low into northeastern
Kansas will move little this afternoon but will begin to lift north
as a warm front tonight. Very moist air in the mid levels of the
atmosphere and strong surface heating will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms by 21Z at all TAF sites. More
organized thunderstorms will evolve in northern Kansas after 00Z and
may affect the HYS area through 03Z. Scattered to broken clouds near
100 will persist with ceilings near 060 and visibilities locally
near 3 miles in the vicinity of thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  99  70  94 /  20  10  20  10
GCK  68  96  67  93 /  30  10  10  10
EHA  66  96  66  93 /  40  10  10  10
LBL  70 101  69  95 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  69  98  69  94 /  40  10  20  10
P28  74 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ruthi
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Ruthi






000
FXUS63 KTOP 222046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough over southern AZ will lift northeast into
eastern CO by Saturday afternoon. A more amplified upper level
trough across eastern WA and eastern OR will dig southeast into
western WY and western CO by Saturday afternoon. The amplified upper
level trough across WY and CO will cause the down stream upper level
ridge axis to amplify across the mid MS river valley during the day
on Saturday.

This afternoon there were two separate outflow boundaries located
across the CWA. One outflow boundary extended from near Minneapolis,
northeast towards Hiawatha. A second outflow boundary was located
from south of Abilene and extended east-southeast to south of
Emporia, then east-northeast across southwest Anderson county to
west of Garnett. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have been
developing all afternoon along these surface boundaries. A few of
these storms may be strong with the potential for 50 MPH wind gusts
and small hail. Locally heavy rainfall may also occur with these
thunderstorms. These thunderstorms should dissipate towards sunset.
As the lee surface low deepens across northeast CO and northwest KS
tonight, the stronger isentropic lift will shift northward across
central NE. Thunderstorms should form well north and west of the CWA
after midnight. Southwesterly flow aloft on the western edge of the
H5 ridge axis will keep any thunderstorms that form on the high
plains this evening, well west and north of the CWA through the
early morning hours of Saturday.

Saturday looks dry. The H5 ridge axis across the MS river valley
will amplify and the western periphery of the ridge axis will expand
west across eastern KS. Afternoon thunderstorms that develop across
western KS and eastern CO will move north into central NE. High
temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 90s with some 100
degree readings possible across the area tomorrow afternoon. The
operational models show deeper mixing and the deeper 850mb moisture
advecting farther northeast of the CWA across northern MO and IA.
Thus, heat indices may only range from 100 to 104 degrees. However,
the models have been mixing out dewpoints into the mid 60s the past
couple days, even though surface dewpoints have remained in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Therefore, I have decided to keep the heat
advisory in effect through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

By Sunday morning the upper ridge amplifies over the eastern US
while a strong upper low lifts over the northern Plains. At the
surface the boundary that has been quasi-stationary across the
region will slowly migrate eastward as those upper level systems
advance. This will leave a slight chance for storms in the
northern counties on Sunday morning. Models are suggesting weak
shortwaves within the southwest flow may move over the region
enhancing the large scale lift over the boundary. One is possible
Sunday night into Monday morning and more likely to affect the
northern counties again. The longwave trough is then forecast to exit
the Rockies around mid-week bringing better chances for precip as
the front gets driven further to the south. At the moment the
ECMWF disagrees with the GFS and GEM on the how this system will
approach the area. A majority of the GFS ensembles agree with the
operational run, which suggests the quicker solution, and the
front clearing the area by Wednesday night. The ECMWF wants to cut
off the southern trough causing it to slowly drift towards eastern
KS. This would delay the front and precip later into the week.
Therefore have gone with the GFS solution only keeping slight pops
in on Thursday in case the scenario ECMWF plays out. The
temperatures will continue to stay warm with afternoon heat
indices in the low 100s through Tuesday. Cooler air is forecast to
move southward behind the departing wave and surface cold front.
Temperatures during this period could be slightly below normal the
end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated thunderstorms may be possible around the terminals this
afternoon. I placed in a VCTS in TAFs. This evening the
thunderstorms should shift north of the terminals. There will be
moderate low-level wind shear developing at the terminals between
3Z and 9Z as the low-level jet at 925 MB increases to 35 to 40
KTS.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KICT 222029
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR AND EXCEEDING 105 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THAT BISECTS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED BETWEEN 103 AND 109 THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE NEXT WAVE THAT IMPACTS THE REGION IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER NEBRASKA AS THE WAVE LIFTS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE WAVE ROTATES IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA A COUPLE OF TIMES. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...WITH
LIMITED CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT FEEL BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER CHANCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT FROM THE EARLIER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND NEAR TO JUST EXCEEDING 100.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOOKS TO COOL DOWN SOME FOR THE EXTENDED AS
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING IS
QUESTIONABLE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
THE COOL DOWN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE BOUNDARY AND THUS PRECIPITATION AROUND
LONGER THAN THE GFS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGEVITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF LABOR DAY
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIT-OR-MISS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON OR SO. INCLUDED VCTS AT SLN-HUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL...NORTHERN
KS...IN VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD-RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RSL
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY...SO
INCLUDED VCTS THERE THIS EVENING.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 100  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
NEWTON          75  99  74  99 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        75 100  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75 100  74 100 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         73  98  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      72  99  73  95 /  30  20  20  20
SALINA          74  99  74  97 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       74  99  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 222029
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR AND EXCEEDING 105 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THAT BISECTS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HEAT INDICES HAVE REACHED BETWEEN 103 AND 109 THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE NEXT WAVE THAT IMPACTS THE REGION IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS AND TRACK NORTHWARD OVER NEBRASKA AS THE WAVE LIFTS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE WAVE ROTATES IT WILL INFLUENCE THE
AREA A COUPLE OF TIMES. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...WITH
LIMITED CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT FEEL BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER CHANCE WILL BE PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OUT FROM THE EARLIER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AREAS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND NEAR TO JUST EXCEEDING 100.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CURRENTLY THE FORECAST LOOKS TO COOL DOWN SOME FOR THE EXTENDED AS
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TIMING IS
QUESTIONABLE AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
THE COOL DOWN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF LINGERS THE BOUNDARY AND THUS PRECIPITATION AROUND
LONGER THAN THE GFS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGEVITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY THE SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF LABOR DAY
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIT-OR-MISS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON OR SO. INCLUDED VCTS AT SLN-HUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL...NORTHERN
KS...IN VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD-RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RSL
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY...SO
INCLUDED VCTS THERE THIS EVENING.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75 100  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      75 100  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
NEWTON          75  99  74  99 /  10  10  20  20
ELDORADO        75 100  75  99 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75 100  74 100 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         73  98  73  94 /  30  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      72  99  73  95 /  30  20  20  20
SALINA          74  99  74  97 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       74  99  73  98 /  20  10  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  99  73  99 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 221842
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1242 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THUNDERSTORMS. AS
STATED IN EARLIER AFD. STRONGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW
TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS KEPT THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FROM
MOVING VERY FAR NORTH. I HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BUT STILL MAY NOT
HAVE GOT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS WITH A FRONTAL POSITION SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE.

ALSO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS SETTLED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MID AND UPPER LIFT HAS KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS LOW
LEVEL/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY INCOMING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH IN ADDITION THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
THAT AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE NIGHT.

SO HAVE PULLED LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH TO REFLECT
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE/HELICITY
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. DO EXPECT STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS FOG BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FROM THE SOUTH.

FOR TOMORROW SLOWED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE FRINGES OF THE
AREA. SLIGHTLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF WESTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD....AND WHILE THE SET UP DEFINITELY LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR A NUMBER PRECIP EVENTS...THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING.

BRIEFLY ON THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE TROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...TAKING TIME TO DEVELOP A DEEPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DELAYING THE TROUGH...THIS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL AS THIS WOULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WELL AS VERY MOIST AIR. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE BEST SET-UP FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...TYPICAL AUGUST DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH GOOD LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A
HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH AS A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS
TIME FRAME BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPS SEASONABLE
/MID TO UPPER 80S/ LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221805
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1205 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT HAVING NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS MOVED MUCH
AND GOING BY THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE LOW HAS
INTENSIFIED. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO HELPED IN KEEPING
THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS NOT REALLY DEVELOPING ANYTHING
ALONG THE FRONT. THEY WANT TO INCREASE THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN
OVER EASTERN COLORADO ALL DAY AND BRING IT WEST.

COMBINATION OF THE PERSISTENT AREA OF COLORADO
CONVECTION...POSITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND CURRENT FRONTAL
POSITION LED ME TO INCREASE POPS MORE/FURTHER SOUTH. WITH CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT MAY NEED TO INCREASE MORE. NAM...RAP AND ECMWF APPEAR
TO BE CATCHING THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY THE BEST. MADE OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND A SURFACE LOW CENTER
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY 00Z AND LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY
06Z. BY 00Z THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM LIMON
COLORADO TO ATWOOD AND NORTON KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF WESTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD....AND WHILE THE SET UP DEFINITELY LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR A NUMBER PRECIP EVENTS...THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING.

BRIEFLY ON THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE TROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...TAKING TIME TO DEVELOP A DEEPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DELAYING THE TROUGH...THIS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL AS THIS WOULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WELL AS VERY MOIST AIR. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE BEST SET-UP FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...TYPICAL AUGUST DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH GOOD LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A
HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH AS A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS
TIME FRAME BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPS SEASONABLE
/MID TO UPPER 80S/ LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 221805
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1205 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT HAVING NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS MOVED MUCH
AND GOING BY THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE LOW HAS
INTENSIFIED. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO HELPED IN KEEPING
THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS NOT REALLY DEVELOPING ANYTHING
ALONG THE FRONT. THEY WANT TO INCREASE THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN
OVER EASTERN COLORADO ALL DAY AND BRING IT WEST.

COMBINATION OF THE PERSISTENT AREA OF COLORADO
CONVECTION...POSITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND CURRENT FRONTAL
POSITION LED ME TO INCREASE POPS MORE/FURTHER SOUTH. WITH CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT MAY NEED TO INCREASE MORE. NAM...RAP AND ECMWF APPEAR
TO BE CATCHING THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY THE BEST. MADE OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND A SURFACE LOW CENTER
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY 00Z AND LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY
06Z. BY 00Z THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM LIMON
COLORADO TO ATWOOD AND NORTON KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF WESTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD....AND WHILE THE SET UP DEFINITELY LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR A NUMBER PRECIP EVENTS...THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING.

BRIEFLY ON THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE TROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...TAKING TIME TO DEVELOP A DEEPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DELAYING THE TROUGH...THIS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL AS THIS WOULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WELL AS VERY MOIST AIR. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE BEST SET-UP FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...TYPICAL AUGUST DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH GOOD LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A
HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH AS A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS
TIME FRAME BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPS SEASONABLE
/MID TO UPPER 80S/ LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 221805
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1205 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT HAVING NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS MOVED MUCH
AND GOING BY THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE LOW HAS
INTENSIFIED. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO HELPED IN KEEPING
THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS NOT REALLY DEVELOPING ANYTHING
ALONG THE FRONT. THEY WANT TO INCREASE THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN
OVER EASTERN COLORADO ALL DAY AND BRING IT WEST.

COMBINATION OF THE PERSISTENT AREA OF COLORADO
CONVECTION...POSITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND CURRENT FRONTAL
POSITION LED ME TO INCREASE POPS MORE/FURTHER SOUTH. WITH CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT MAY NEED TO INCREASE MORE. NAM...RAP AND ECMWF APPEAR
TO BE CATCHING THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY THE BEST. MADE OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND A SURFACE LOW CENTER
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY 00Z AND LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY
06Z. BY 00Z THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM LIMON
COLORADO TO ATWOOD AND NORTON KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF WESTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD....AND WHILE THE SET UP DEFINITELY LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR A NUMBER PRECIP EVENTS...THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING.

BRIEFLY ON THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE TROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...TAKING TIME TO DEVELOP A DEEPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DELAYING THE TROUGH...THIS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL AS THIS WOULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WELL AS VERY MOIST AIR. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE BEST SET-UP FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...TYPICAL AUGUST DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH GOOD LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A
HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH AS A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS
TIME FRAME BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPS SEASONABLE
/MID TO UPPER 80S/ LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 221805
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1205 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL DATA SUPPORT HAVING NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS MOVED MUCH
AND GOING BY THE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE LOW HAS
INTENSIFIED. OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO HELPED IN KEEPING
THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS NOT REALLY DEVELOPING ANYTHING
ALONG THE FRONT. THEY WANT TO INCREASE THE ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN
OVER EASTERN COLORADO ALL DAY AND BRING IT WEST.

COMBINATION OF THE PERSISTENT AREA OF COLORADO
CONVECTION...POSITION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND CURRENT FRONTAL
POSITION LED ME TO INCREASE POPS MORE/FURTHER SOUTH. WITH CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT MAY NEED TO INCREASE MORE. NAM...RAP AND ECMWF APPEAR
TO BE CATCHING THE POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY THE BEST. MADE OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND A SURFACE LOW CENTER
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY 00Z AND LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY
06Z. BY 00Z THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM LIMON
COLORADO TO ATWOOD AND NORTON KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF WESTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD....AND WHILE THE SET UP DEFINITELY LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR A NUMBER PRECIP EVENTS...THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING.

BRIEFLY ON THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE TROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...TAKING TIME TO DEVELOP A DEEPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DELAYING THE TROUGH...THIS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL AS THIS WOULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WELL AS VERY MOIST AIR. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE BEST SET-UP FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...TYPICAL AUGUST DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH GOOD LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A
HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH AS A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS
TIME FRAME BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPS SEASONABLE
/MID TO UPPER 80S/ LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES WITH DEVELOPMENT
ALREADY UNDERWAY. STORMS SHOULD AFFECT KGLD FIRST. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES BEFORE
ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND 06Z. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OR STRATUS AFTER
THE STORMS AT THIS TIME SINCE WESTERLY WINDS TEND TO SCOUR THE
MOISTURE OUT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KTOP 221740
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Scattered to isolated thunderstorms will continue into the
afternoon hours. Some of the storms this afternoon may be strong
with gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rainfall.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Decaying thunderstorms near the Nebraska border early this morning
were moving northeast into southeast Nebraska. VAD profiler winds
along with satellite show presence of a weak MCV moving along the
Nebraska border at 09Z. Outflow boundary from earlier convection has
washed out and dew points have recovered back into the lower 70s in
north central Kansas.

Main concern for today will again be temperatures along with the
humidity producing heat indices this afternoon around 105 degrees
across the CWA. Highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a
degree warmer in the 95 to 100 degree range. Thermal axis on all
models extends from southwest to northeast across Kansas and
soundings show mixing down from around 700 mb. Will be issuing a
heat advisory beginning at 1 pm today.

Forecast soundings near the Nebraska border show cap eroding by late
afternoon along with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear around
20-25 kts decreases through the evening hours. A few storms may
become severe with wind and hail the main hazards. A warm front is
progged to be in southern Nebraska and may focus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms again late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave over New Mexico this morning will move across the Western
High Plains this afternoon then continue northward into the Dakotas
tonight. With ridge holding in place across eastern Kansas most of
this activity should remain to the northwest of the CWA. Lows
tonight remain on the warm side with low to mid 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Good model agreement with much drier low/mid level air coming north
around the ridge into eastern Kansas Saturday (700mb dewpoints 0 to
-10C, 850mb dewpoints 5 to 10C). This should spell very good
insolation and similar mixing from recent days to bring air temps
back to around 100F. Dewpoints also fall off but will still likely
support apparent temps in the 100 to 105 range. Given this will be
the third to fifth day of feels-like temps at to above these levels,
such prolonged heat rather rare this summer, and weekend activities,
will keep today`s advisory going into Saturday.

By Sunday afternoon, models begin to diverge in where the front will
be, owing to differences in how the Northern Rockies wave will
behave. Deep layer moisture picks back up again and will support
small precipitation chances for northern and western areas by late
afternoon where the front is more likely to be. With uncertainty on
the boundary, have less confidence in where temps will end up so
have not spread the Heat Advisory this far.

After Sunday night, front should steadily mix back northwest into
Monday night as the northern CONUS wave moves on northeast. This
may bring heat back into mainly East Central Kansas and at least
minor concern for and Advisory to be needed into the early work
week.

There continues to be much trouble in handling the next upper wave
and its interaction with the persistent southern CONUS ridge. The 0Z
ECMWF has now sided away from its 12Z run and the 0Z GFS and is much
slower with this wave pushing into the region. Have kept
precipitation chances somewhat reduced but still present through
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The late summer heat should
subside by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated thunderstorms may be possible around the terminals this
afternoon. I placed in a VCTS in TAFs. This evening the
thunderstorms should shift north of the terminals. There will be
moderate low-level wind shear developing at the terminals between
3Z and 9Z as the low-level jet at 925 MB increases to 35 to 40
KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gargan
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan






000
FXUS63 KTOP 221740
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Scattered to isolated thunderstorms will continue into the
afternoon hours. Some of the storms this afternoon may be strong
with gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rainfall.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Decaying thunderstorms near the Nebraska border early this morning
were moving northeast into southeast Nebraska. VAD profiler winds
along with satellite show presence of a weak MCV moving along the
Nebraska border at 09Z. Outflow boundary from earlier convection has
washed out and dew points have recovered back into the lower 70s in
north central Kansas.

Main concern for today will again be temperatures along with the
humidity producing heat indices this afternoon around 105 degrees
across the CWA. Highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a
degree warmer in the 95 to 100 degree range. Thermal axis on all
models extends from southwest to northeast across Kansas and
soundings show mixing down from around 700 mb. Will be issuing a
heat advisory beginning at 1 pm today.

Forecast soundings near the Nebraska border show cap eroding by late
afternoon along with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear around
20-25 kts decreases through the evening hours. A few storms may
become severe with wind and hail the main hazards. A warm front is
progged to be in southern Nebraska and may focus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms again late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave over New Mexico this morning will move across the Western
High Plains this afternoon then continue northward into the Dakotas
tonight. With ridge holding in place across eastern Kansas most of
this activity should remain to the northwest of the CWA. Lows
tonight remain on the warm side with low to mid 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Good model agreement with much drier low/mid level air coming north
around the ridge into eastern Kansas Saturday (700mb dewpoints 0 to
-10C, 850mb dewpoints 5 to 10C). This should spell very good
insolation and similar mixing from recent days to bring air temps
back to around 100F. Dewpoints also fall off but will still likely
support apparent temps in the 100 to 105 range. Given this will be
the third to fifth day of feels-like temps at to above these levels,
such prolonged heat rather rare this summer, and weekend activities,
will keep today`s advisory going into Saturday.

By Sunday afternoon, models begin to diverge in where the front will
be, owing to differences in how the Northern Rockies wave will
behave. Deep layer moisture picks back up again and will support
small precipitation chances for northern and western areas by late
afternoon where the front is more likely to be. With uncertainty on
the boundary, have less confidence in where temps will end up so
have not spread the Heat Advisory this far.

After Sunday night, front should steadily mix back northwest into
Monday night as the northern CONUS wave moves on northeast. This
may bring heat back into mainly East Central Kansas and at least
minor concern for and Advisory to be needed into the early work
week.

There continues to be much trouble in handling the next upper wave
and its interaction with the persistent southern CONUS ridge. The 0Z
ECMWF has now sided away from its 12Z run and the 0Z GFS and is much
slower with this wave pushing into the region. Have kept
precipitation chances somewhat reduced but still present through
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The late summer heat should
subside by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated thunderstorms may be possible around the terminals this
afternoon. I placed in a VCTS in TAFs. This evening the
thunderstorms should shift north of the terminals. There will be
moderate low-level wind shear developing at the terminals between
3Z and 9Z as the low-level jet at 925 MB increases to 35 to 40
KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-
034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gargan
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan







000
FXUS63 KICT 221737
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DON`T MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED
THEN HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST
LIKELY REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD
PUSH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE
DAY WITH RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED...BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIT-OR-MISS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON OR SO. INCLUDED VCTS AT SLN-HUT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING OVER WESTERN...CENTRAL...NORTHERN
KS...IN VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD-RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RSL
HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY THIS ACTIVITY...SO
INCLUDED VCTS THERE THIS EVENING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     100  74 100  73 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          99  74  99  73 /  30  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  20   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD  100  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         99  71  98  72 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      99  72  99  72 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  30  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     99  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         99  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            98  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    99  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 221716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday except near scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Saturday
afternoon. A vigorous upper level trough in western New Mexico will
move across western Kansas into central Nebraska by Saturday
morning, and a second upper level trough will move into western
Kansas Saturday afternoon. A surface low centered near the Colorado
border west of Johnson City will move into northwest Kansas by early
Saturday morning and into central Nebraska by noon Saturday. A weak
stationary front extending from the surface low into northeastern
Kansas will move little this afternoon but will begin to lift north
as a warm front tonight. Very moist air in the mid levels of the
atmosphere and strong surface heating will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms by 21Z at all TAF sites. More
organized thunderstorms will evolve in northern Kansas after 00Z and
may affect the HYS area through 03Z. Scattered to broken clouds near
100 will persist with ceilings near 060 and visibilities locally
near 3 miles in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 101  73  99  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Ruthi







000
FXUS63 KDDC 221716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday except near scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Saturday
afternoon. A vigorous upper level trough in western New Mexico will
move across western Kansas into central Nebraska by Saturday
morning, and a second upper level trough will move into western
Kansas Saturday afternoon. A surface low centered near the Colorado
border west of Johnson City will move into northwest Kansas by early
Saturday morning and into central Nebraska by noon Saturday. A weak
stationary front extending from the surface low into northeastern
Kansas will move little this afternoon but will begin to lift north
as a warm front tonight. Very moist air in the mid levels of the
atmosphere and strong surface heating will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms by 21Z at all TAF sites. More
organized thunderstorms will evolve in northern Kansas after 00Z and
may affect the HYS area through 03Z. Scattered to broken clouds near
100 will persist with ceilings near 060 and visibilities locally
near 3 miles in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 101  73  99  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Ruthi







000
FXUS63 KDDC 221716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday except near scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Saturday
afternoon. A vigorous upper level trough in western New Mexico will
move across western Kansas into central Nebraska by Saturday
morning, and a second upper level trough will move into western
Kansas Saturday afternoon. A surface low centered near the Colorado
border west of Johnson City will move into northwest Kansas by early
Saturday morning and into central Nebraska by noon Saturday. A weak
stationary front extending from the surface low into northeastern
Kansas will move little this afternoon but will begin to lift north
as a warm front tonight. Very moist air in the mid levels of the
atmosphere and strong surface heating will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms by 21Z at all TAF sites. More
organized thunderstorms will evolve in northern Kansas after 00Z and
may affect the HYS area through 03Z. Scattered to broken clouds near
100 will persist with ceilings near 060 and visibilities locally
near 3 miles in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 101  73  99  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Ruthi







000
FXUS63 KDDC 221716
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

VFR conditions will continue through Saturday except near scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Saturday
afternoon. A vigorous upper level trough in western New Mexico will
move across western Kansas into central Nebraska by Saturday
morning, and a second upper level trough will move into western
Kansas Saturday afternoon. A surface low centered near the Colorado
border west of Johnson City will move into northwest Kansas by early
Saturday morning and into central Nebraska by noon Saturday. A weak
stationary front extending from the surface low into northeastern
Kansas will move little this afternoon but will begin to lift north
as a warm front tonight. Very moist air in the mid levels of the
atmosphere and strong surface heating will support development of
widely scattered thunderstorms by 21Z at all TAF sites. More
organized thunderstorms will evolve in northern Kansas after 00Z and
may affect the HYS area through 03Z. Scattered to broken clouds near
100 will persist with ceilings near 060 and visibilities locally
near 3 miles in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 101  73  99  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Ruthi







000
FXUS63 KICT 221215
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
715 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DONT MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED THEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PUSH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE STORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH COMBO OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KS. BASED ON RADAR/
SATELLITE TRENDS...BEST AXIS IS BETWEEN GBD AND SLN. WILL KEEP
BRIEF TEMPORARY GOING AT KSLN WITH REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL THERE.
ODDS AT KRSL/KHUT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. TOUGH CALL ON WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NAM MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE.  WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING...WILL LIMIT SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS TO VCTS NEAR KRSL AFTER
MIDDNIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL        101  71  98  72 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  72  99  72 /  20  10  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 221215
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
715 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DONT MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED THEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PUSH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE STORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH COMBO OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KS. BASED ON RADAR/
SATELLITE TRENDS...BEST AXIS IS BETWEEN GBD AND SLN. WILL KEEP
BRIEF TEMPORARY GOING AT KSLN WITH REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL THERE.
ODDS AT KRSL/KHUT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION. TOUGH CALL ON WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NAM MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH WIND SPEEDS THAN
OTHER GUIDANCE.  WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY
THIS EVENING...WILL LIMIT SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS TO VCTS NEAR KRSL AFTER
MIDDNIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL        101  71  98  72 /  20  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  72  99  72 /  20  10  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 221159
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND A SURFACE LOW CENTER
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY 00Z AND LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY
06Z. BY 00Z THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM LIMON
COLORADO TO ATWOOD AND NORTON KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF WESTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD....AND WHILE THE SET UP DEFINITELY LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR A NUMBER PRECIP EVENTS...THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING.

BRIEFLY ON THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE TROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...TAKING TIME TO DEVELOP A DEEPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DELAYING THE TROUGH...THIS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL AS THIS WOULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WELL AS VERY MOIST AIR. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE BEST SET-UP FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...TYPICAL AUGUST DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH GOOD LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A
HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH AS A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS
TIME FRAME BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPS SEASONABLE
/MID TO UPPER 80S/ LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF MCK
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH MCK AND GLD
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE VICINITY OF MCK AND GLD THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION FROM AROUND 00Z THROUGH 03Z WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. WITH RAINFALL
MOISTENING UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CEILINGS POTENTIALLY
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR INTERMITTENTLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221159
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND A SURFACE LOW CENTER
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY 00Z AND LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY
06Z. BY 00Z THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM LIMON
COLORADO TO ATWOOD AND NORTON KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF WESTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD....AND WHILE THE SET UP DEFINITELY LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR A NUMBER PRECIP EVENTS...THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING.

BRIEFLY ON THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE TROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...TAKING TIME TO DEVELOP A DEEPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DELAYING THE TROUGH...THIS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL AS THIS WOULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WELL AS VERY MOIST AIR. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE BEST SET-UP FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...TYPICAL AUGUST DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH GOOD LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A
HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH AS A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS
TIME FRAME BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPS SEASONABLE
/MID TO UPPER 80S/ LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 455 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF MCK
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH MCK AND GLD
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z WITH STORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE VICINITY OF MCK AND GLD THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION FROM AROUND 00Z THROUGH 03Z WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. WITH RAINFALL
MOISTENING UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND SOME LOW CEILINGS POTENTIALLY
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR INTERMITTENTLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KTOP 221135
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the low level jet on the
edge of the moisture plume. Have updated forecast to reflect this
through mid morning. Cloud debris should clear off by late morning
allowing for good isolation.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Decaying thunderstorms near the Nebraska border early this morning
were moving northeast into southeast Nebraska. VAD profiler winds
along with satellite show presence of a weak MCV moving along the
Nebraska border at 09Z. Outflow boundary from earlier convection has
washed out and dew points have recovered back into the lower 70s in
north central Kansas.

Main concern for today will again be temperatures along with the
humidity producing heat indices this afternoon around 105 degrees
across the CWA. Highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a
degree warmer in the 95 to 100 degree range. Thermal axis on all
models extends from southwest to northeast across Kansas and
soundings show mixing down from around 700 mb. Will be issuing a
heat advisory beginning at 1 pm today.

Forecast soundings near the Nebraska border show cap eroding by late
afternoon along with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear around
20-25 kts decreases through the evening hours. A few storms may
become severe with wind and hail the main hazards. A warm front is
progged to be in southern Nebraska and may focus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms again late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave over New Mexico this morning will move across the Western
High Plains this afternoon then continue northward into the Dakotas
tonight. With ridge holding in place across eastern Kansas most of
this activity should remain to the northwest of the CWA. Lows
tonight remain on the warm side with low to mid 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Good model agreement with much drier low/mid level air coming north
around the ridge into eastern Kansas Saturday (700mb dewpoints 0 to
-10C, 850mb dewpoints 5 to 10C). This should spell very good
insolation and similar mixing from recent days to bring air temps
back to around 100F. Dewpoints also fall off but will still likely
support apparent temps in the 100 to 105 range. Given this will be
the third to fifth day of feels-like temps at to above these levels,
such prolonged heat rather rare this summer, and weekend activities,
will keep today`s advisory going into Saturday.

By Sunday afternoon, models begin to diverge in where the front will
be, owing to differences in how the Northern Rockies wave will
behave. Deep layer moisture picks back up again and will support
small precipitation chances for northern and western areas by late
afternoon where the front is more likely to be. With uncertainty on
the boundary, have less confidence in where temps will end up so
have not spread the Heat Advisory this far.

After Sunday night, front should steadily mix back northwest into
Monday night as the northern CONUS wave moves on northeast. This
may bring heat back into mainly East Central Kansas and at least
minor concern for and Advisory to be needed into the early work
week.

There continues to be much trouble in handling the next upper wave
and its interaction with the persistent southern CONUS ridge. The 0Z
ECMWF has now sided away from its 12Z run and the 0Z GFS and is much
slower with this wave pushing into the region. Have kept
precipitation chances somewhat reduced but still present through
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The late summer heat should
subside by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated to scattered TSRA will affect the terminals through 15Z
this morning. Have included VCTS til 15Z especially MHK. Expect
VFR outside of any convection through the period. Additional
isolated TSRA will be possible after 01Z but confidence in timing
and placement preclude including TSRA for now.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The record highest minimum temperature is being threatened again
today at Topeka. The current record for August 22 is 80, set in
2000. The temperatures at Concordia has already fallen below its
record of 78.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221135
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the low level jet on the
edge of the moisture plume. Have updated forecast to reflect this
through mid morning. Cloud debris should clear off by late morning
allowing for good isolation.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Decaying thunderstorms near the Nebraska border early this morning
were moving northeast into southeast Nebraska. VAD profiler winds
along with satellite show presence of a weak MCV moving along the
Nebraska border at 09Z. Outflow boundary from earlier convection has
washed out and dew points have recovered back into the lower 70s in
north central Kansas.

Main concern for today will again be temperatures along with the
humidity producing heat indices this afternoon around 105 degrees
across the CWA. Highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a
degree warmer in the 95 to 100 degree range. Thermal axis on all
models extends from southwest to northeast across Kansas and
soundings show mixing down from around 700 mb. Will be issuing a
heat advisory beginning at 1 pm today.

Forecast soundings near the Nebraska border show cap eroding by late
afternoon along with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear around
20-25 kts decreases through the evening hours. A few storms may
become severe with wind and hail the main hazards. A warm front is
progged to be in southern Nebraska and may focus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms again late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave over New Mexico this morning will move across the Western
High Plains this afternoon then continue northward into the Dakotas
tonight. With ridge holding in place across eastern Kansas most of
this activity should remain to the northwest of the CWA. Lows
tonight remain on the warm side with low to mid 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Good model agreement with much drier low/mid level air coming north
around the ridge into eastern Kansas Saturday (700mb dewpoints 0 to
-10C, 850mb dewpoints 5 to 10C). This should spell very good
insolation and similar mixing from recent days to bring air temps
back to around 100F. Dewpoints also fall off but will still likely
support apparent temps in the 100 to 105 range. Given this will be
the third to fifth day of feels-like temps at to above these levels,
such prolonged heat rather rare this summer, and weekend activities,
will keep today`s advisory going into Saturday.

By Sunday afternoon, models begin to diverge in where the front will
be, owing to differences in how the Northern Rockies wave will
behave. Deep layer moisture picks back up again and will support
small precipitation chances for northern and western areas by late
afternoon where the front is more likely to be. With uncertainty on
the boundary, have less confidence in where temps will end up so
have not spread the Heat Advisory this far.

After Sunday night, front should steadily mix back northwest into
Monday night as the northern CONUS wave moves on northeast. This
may bring heat back into mainly East Central Kansas and at least
minor concern for and Advisory to be needed into the early work
week.

There continues to be much trouble in handling the next upper wave
and its interaction with the persistent southern CONUS ridge. The 0Z
ECMWF has now sided away from its 12Z run and the 0Z GFS and is much
slower with this wave pushing into the region. Have kept
precipitation chances somewhat reduced but still present through
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The late summer heat should
subside by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated to scattered TSRA will affect the terminals through 15Z
this morning. Have included VCTS til 15Z especially MHK. Expect
VFR outside of any convection through the period. Additional
isolated TSRA will be possible after 01Z but confidence in timing
and placement preclude including TSRA for now.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The record highest minimum temperature is being threatened again
today at Topeka. The current record for August 22 is 80, set in
2000. The temperatures at Concordia has already fallen below its
record of 78.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221135
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the low level jet on the
edge of the moisture plume. Have updated forecast to reflect this
through mid morning. Cloud debris should clear off by late morning
allowing for good isolation.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Decaying thunderstorms near the Nebraska border early this morning
were moving northeast into southeast Nebraska. VAD profiler winds
along with satellite show presence of a weak MCV moving along the
Nebraska border at 09Z. Outflow boundary from earlier convection has
washed out and dew points have recovered back into the lower 70s in
north central Kansas.

Main concern for today will again be temperatures along with the
humidity producing heat indices this afternoon around 105 degrees
across the CWA. Highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a
degree warmer in the 95 to 100 degree range. Thermal axis on all
models extends from southwest to northeast across Kansas and
soundings show mixing down from around 700 mb. Will be issuing a
heat advisory beginning at 1 pm today.

Forecast soundings near the Nebraska border show cap eroding by late
afternoon along with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear around
20-25 kts decreases through the evening hours. A few storms may
become severe with wind and hail the main hazards. A warm front is
progged to be in southern Nebraska and may focus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms again late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave over New Mexico this morning will move across the Western
High Plains this afternoon then continue northward into the Dakotas
tonight. With ridge holding in place across eastern Kansas most of
this activity should remain to the northwest of the CWA. Lows
tonight remain on the warm side with low to mid 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Good model agreement with much drier low/mid level air coming north
around the ridge into eastern Kansas Saturday (700mb dewpoints 0 to
-10C, 850mb dewpoints 5 to 10C). This should spell very good
insolation and similar mixing from recent days to bring air temps
back to around 100F. Dewpoints also fall off but will still likely
support apparent temps in the 100 to 105 range. Given this will be
the third to fifth day of feels-like temps at to above these levels,
such prolonged heat rather rare this summer, and weekend activities,
will keep today`s advisory going into Saturday.

By Sunday afternoon, models begin to diverge in where the front will
be, owing to differences in how the Northern Rockies wave will
behave. Deep layer moisture picks back up again and will support
small precipitation chances for northern and western areas by late
afternoon where the front is more likely to be. With uncertainty on
the boundary, have less confidence in where temps will end up so
have not spread the Heat Advisory this far.

After Sunday night, front should steadily mix back northwest into
Monday night as the northern CONUS wave moves on northeast. This
may bring heat back into mainly East Central Kansas and at least
minor concern for and Advisory to be needed into the early work
week.

There continues to be much trouble in handling the next upper wave
and its interaction with the persistent southern CONUS ridge. The 0Z
ECMWF has now sided away from its 12Z run and the 0Z GFS and is much
slower with this wave pushing into the region. Have kept
precipitation chances somewhat reduced but still present through
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The late summer heat should
subside by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated to scattered TSRA will affect the terminals through 15Z
this morning. Have included VCTS til 15Z especially MHK. Expect
VFR outside of any convection through the period. Additional
isolated TSRA will be possible after 01Z but confidence in timing
and placement preclude including TSRA for now.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The record highest minimum temperature is being threatened again
today at Topeka. The current record for August 22 is 80, set in
2000. The temperatures at Concordia has already fallen below its
record of 78.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 221135
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the low level jet on the
edge of the moisture plume. Have updated forecast to reflect this
through mid morning. Cloud debris should clear off by late morning
allowing for good isolation.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Decaying thunderstorms near the Nebraska border early this morning
were moving northeast into southeast Nebraska. VAD profiler winds
along with satellite show presence of a weak MCV moving along the
Nebraska border at 09Z. Outflow boundary from earlier convection has
washed out and dew points have recovered back into the lower 70s in
north central Kansas.

Main concern for today will again be temperatures along with the
humidity producing heat indices this afternoon around 105 degrees
across the CWA. Highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a
degree warmer in the 95 to 100 degree range. Thermal axis on all
models extends from southwest to northeast across Kansas and
soundings show mixing down from around 700 mb. Will be issuing a
heat advisory beginning at 1 pm today.

Forecast soundings near the Nebraska border show cap eroding by late
afternoon along with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear around
20-25 kts decreases through the evening hours. A few storms may
become severe with wind and hail the main hazards. A warm front is
progged to be in southern Nebraska and may focus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms again late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave over New Mexico this morning will move across the Western
High Plains this afternoon then continue northward into the Dakotas
tonight. With ridge holding in place across eastern Kansas most of
this activity should remain to the northwest of the CWA. Lows
tonight remain on the warm side with low to mid 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Good model agreement with much drier low/mid level air coming north
around the ridge into eastern Kansas Saturday (700mb dewpoints 0 to
-10C, 850mb dewpoints 5 to 10C). This should spell very good
insolation and similar mixing from recent days to bring air temps
back to around 100F. Dewpoints also fall off but will still likely
support apparent temps in the 100 to 105 range. Given this will be
the third to fifth day of feels-like temps at to above these levels,
such prolonged heat rather rare this summer, and weekend activities,
will keep today`s advisory going into Saturday.

By Sunday afternoon, models begin to diverge in where the front will
be, owing to differences in how the Northern Rockies wave will
behave. Deep layer moisture picks back up again and will support
small precipitation chances for northern and western areas by late
afternoon where the front is more likely to be. With uncertainty on
the boundary, have less confidence in where temps will end up so
have not spread the Heat Advisory this far.

After Sunday night, front should steadily mix back northwest into
Monday night as the northern CONUS wave moves on northeast. This
may bring heat back into mainly East Central Kansas and at least
minor concern for and Advisory to be needed into the early work
week.

There continues to be much trouble in handling the next upper wave
and its interaction with the persistent southern CONUS ridge. The 0Z
ECMWF has now sided away from its 12Z run and the 0Z GFS and is much
slower with this wave pushing into the region. Have kept
precipitation chances somewhat reduced but still present through
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The late summer heat should
subside by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Isolated to scattered TSRA will affect the terminals through 15Z
this morning. Have included VCTS til 15Z especially MHK. Expect
VFR outside of any convection through the period. Additional
isolated TSRA will be possible after 01Z but confidence in timing
and placement preclude including TSRA for now.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The record highest minimum temperature is being threatened again
today at Topeka. The current record for August 22 is 80, set in
2000. The temperatures at Concordia has already fallen below its
record of 78.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...53
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53
CLIMATE...65







000
FXUS63 KDDC 221105
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Model soundings indicating moisture today and tonight across
western Kansas will be in the 750mb to 600mb level as an upper
level trough approaches western Kansas from the west. As this
upper level trough approaches...clouds will increase late today
with a few thunderstorms becoming possible early tonight. At this
time the probability for thunderstorms near GCK and HYS will be
high enough to insert a period of VCTS into the TAFS between
between 00z and 03z. Southerly winds will increase into the 15 to
20 knot range by late morning and then fall back to around 10knots
after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 100  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert







000
FXUS63 KDDC 221105
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Model soundings indicating moisture today and tonight across
western Kansas will be in the 750mb to 600mb level as an upper
level trough approaches western Kansas from the west. As this
upper level trough approaches...clouds will increase late today
with a few thunderstorms becoming possible early tonight. At this
time the probability for thunderstorms near GCK and HYS will be
high enough to insert a period of VCTS into the TAFS between
between 00z and 03z. Southerly winds will increase into the 15 to
20 knot range by late morning and then fall back to around 10knots
after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 100  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert






000
FXUS63 KGLD 221055
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND A SURFACE LOW CENTER
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY 00Z AND LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY
06Z. BY 00Z THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM LIMON
COLORADO TO ATWOOD AND NORTON KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF WESTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD....AND WHILE THE SET UP DEFINITELY LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR A NUMBER PRECIP EVENTS...THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING.

BRIEFLY ON THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE TROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...TAKING TIME TO DEVELOP A DEEPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DELAYING THE TROUGH...THIS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL AS THIS WOULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WELL AS VERY MOIST AIR. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE BEST SET-UP FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...TYPICAL AUGUST DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH GOOD LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A
HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH AS A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS
TIME FRAME BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPS SEASONABLE
/MID TO UPPER 80S/ LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THRU 22Z EXPECTED FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH ONLY
SCT LOW/HIGH CLDS EXPECTED. AFT 22Z WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO AREA...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RW/TRW. SOME
MVFR FOG POTENTIAL AFT 03Z AS FRONT MOVES NORTH. WINDS ENE 5-10KTS
BECM SE 5-15KTS BY 20Z FOR GLD...THEN SHIFT E TO N WITH FRONT
MOVING THRU AREA. MCK ENE TO E THRU PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 221055
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND A SURFACE LOW CENTER
DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST KANSAS BORDER AREA
BY 00Z AND LIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS BY
06Z. BY 00Z THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM LIMON
COLORADO TO ATWOOD AND NORTON KANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AREA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SECONDARY
UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT
OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

FOR THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
REGION OF WESTERN CONUS. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE TO START THE
EXTENDED PERIOD....AND WHILE THE SET UP DEFINITELY LOOKS FAVORABLE
FOR A NUMBER PRECIP EVENTS...THE DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING.

BRIEFLY ON THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS SOLUTION IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LINGERING ON THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT
SLOWER...DELAYING THE TROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR SO. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...TAKING TIME TO DEVELOP A DEEPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE
DELAYING THE TROUGH...THIS PATTERN IS ACTUALLY VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL AS THIS WOULD ALLOW A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO MOVE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS WELL AS VERY MOIST AIR. FINALLY...THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF BUT EVEN SLOWER...WITH THE BEST SET-UP FOR RAINFALL
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...TYPICAL AUGUST DAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WITH GOOD LARGE-SCALE
LIFTING IN PLACE AND AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. WIND PROFILES SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR...SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH ABOUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES THERE APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR HEAVY RAIN
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AM FAIRLY CERTAIN THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MANY RECEIVING OVER A
HALF INCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT. AT THIS POINT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS AGREEING ON LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR THE
BEST CHANCE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS STATIONARY FRONT FROM MONDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES SOUTH AS A COOLER AIRMASS
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND...WHILE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THIS
TIME FRAME BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AND TEMPS SEASONABLE
/MID TO UPPER 80S/ LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THRU 22Z EXPECTED FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH ONLY
SCT LOW/HIGH CLDS EXPECTED. AFT 22Z WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO AREA...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RW/TRW. SOME
MVFR FOG POTENTIAL AFT 03Z AS FRONT MOVES NORTH. WINDS ENE 5-10KTS
BECM SE 5-15KTS BY 20Z FOR GLD...THEN SHIFT E TO N WITH FRONT
MOVING THRU AREA. MCK ENE TO E THRU PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 220857
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Winds will generally be from the south to southeast today as high
pressure continues to bring moisture up from the south. A frontal
boundary will be located along the I-70 corridor this afternoon
and may shift winds at the HYS terminal to more of an easterly
direction for a few hours. VFR conditions are expected across the
TAF sites with a few mid level clouds AOA100.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 100  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KDDC 220857
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Winds will generally be from the south to southeast today as high
pressure continues to bring moisture up from the south. A frontal
boundary will be located along the I-70 corridor this afternoon
and may shift winds at the HYS terminal to more of an easterly
direction for a few hours. VFR conditions are expected across the
TAF sites with a few mid level clouds AOA100.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 100  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KTOP 220857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Decaying thunderstorms near the Nebraska border early this morning
were moving northeast into southeast Nebraska. VAD profiler winds
along with satellite show presence of a weak MCV moving along the
Nebraska border at 09Z. Outflow boundary from earlier convection has
washed out and dew points have recovered back into the lower 70s in
north central Kansas.

Main concern for today will again be temperatures along with the
humidity producing heat indices this afternoon around 105 degrees
across the CWA. Highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a
degree warmer in the 95 to 100 degree range. Thermal axis on all
models extends from southwest to northeast across Kansas and
soundings show mixing down from around 700 mb. Will be issuing a
heat advisory beginning at 1 pm today.

Forecast soundings near the Nebraska border show cap eroding by late
afternoon along with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear around
20-25 kts decreases through the evening hours. A few storms may
become severe with wind and hail the main hazards. A warm front is
progged to be in southern Nebraska and may focus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms again late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave over New Mexico this morning will move across the Western
High Plains this afternoon then continue northward into the Dakotas
tonight. With ridge holding in place across eastern Kansas most of
this activity should remain to the northwest of the CWA. Lows
tonight remain on the warm side with low to mid 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Good model agreement with much drier low/mid level air coming north
around the ridge into eastern Kansas Saturday (700mb dewpoints 0 to
-10C, 850mb dewpoints 5 to 10C). This should spell very good
insolation and similar mixing from recent days to bring air temps
back to around 100F. Dewpoints also fall off but will still likely
support apparent temps in the 100 to 105 range. Given this will be
the third to fifth day of feels-like temps at to above these levels,
such prolonged heat rather rare this summer, and weekend activities,
will keep today`s advisory going into Saturday.

By Sunday afternoon, models begin to diverge in where the front will
be, owing to differences in how the Northern Rockies wave will
behave. Deep layer moisture picks back up again and will support
small precipitation chances for northern and western areas by late
afternoon where the front is more likely to be. With uncertainty on
the boundary, have less confidence in where temps will end up so
have not spread the Heat Advisory this far.

After Sunday night, front should steadily mix back northwest into
Monday night as the northern CONUS wave moves on northeast. This
may bring heat back into mainly East Central Kansas and at least
minor concern for and Advisory to be needed into the early work
week.

There continues to be much trouble in handling the next upper wave
and its interaction with the persistent southern CONUS ridge. The 0Z
ECMWF has now sided away from its 12Z run and the 0Z GFS and is much
slower with this wave pushing into the region. Have kept
precipitation chances somewhat reduced but still present through
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The late summer heat should
subside by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Am quite uncertain whether TS will hold together long enough to
make it into MHK. Profiler data shows a 40KT low level jet from
the south and southwest with the gust front approaching MHK from
the northwest. Think if the gust front was not going to make it
into the terminal, I`d be inclined to keep storms out of the
forecast. However seeing some isolated stuff develop over Lincoln
CO is good enough for me to add a VCTS thinking the gust front
could provide enough lift for some elevated storms. For TOP and
FOE, thinking is the further east the storms move, the more CIN
the will encounter as they move into the heart of the mid level
ridge axis. So will maintain a VFR forecast and continue to
monitor convective trends. Confidence in any model solution is low
as none have done a very good job with this evenings storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The record highest minimum temperature is being threatened again
today at Topeka. The current record for August 22 is 80, set in
2000. The temperatures at Concordia has already fallen below its
record of 78.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...65






000
FXUS63 KDDC 220857
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
357 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

An upper level trough/low, located near the coast of the Pacific
Northwest, will approach the central and northern Rockies late
this weekend. As this system approaches a surface boundary will be
located across western Kansas. GFS, ECMWF, and NAM were also in
decent agreement with 700mb temperatures warming to +12c to +14c
by 00z Sunday across western Kansas. Just east and north of this
warm layer 800mb to 600mb moisture will increase during the day as
a 500mb thermal trough preceding the main upper level tough begins
to cross the central high plains. Based on the moisture and weak
forcing present late Saturday will keep a mention of widely
scattered convection moving east of Dodge City but at this time it
appears the better chances for convection will be north of I-70
based on the improving warm air advection developing during the
evening in this area Saturday night.

On Sunday the upper level trough appears to become more
negatively tilted as it moves out into the Northern Plains as an
upper level jet streak moves from the Colorado Rockies out into
Nebraska. Based on the location of the right entrance region of
this upper level jet along with the location of low level forcing
will keep high chance for convection across west central and north
central Kansas Sunday night. Late day convection further south
currently appearing more questionable, however at this time am not
completely able to rule out a few storms in southwest Kansas.

By early next week another upper level trough will drop south out
of Canada into the northwestern United States. As this next system
approaches the Central Rockies the chances for thunderstorms will
continue across western Kansas. At this time it appears this next
system will finally move across the Central Plains mid week.

Highs over the weekend will be mainly in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees based on the 850mb to 700mb temperatures at 00z Sunday and
00z Monday. From Monday through Wednesday highs are expected to be
mainly in the low to mid 90s given the expected cloud cover and
slightly cooler 850mb temperatures early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Winds will generally be from the south to southeast today as high
pressure continues to bring moisture up from the south. A frontal
boundary will be located along the I-70 corridor this afternoon
and may shift winds at the HYS terminal to more of an easterly
direction for a few hours. VFR conditions are expected across the
TAF sites with a few mid level clouds AOA100.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 100  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KTOP 220857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Decaying thunderstorms near the Nebraska border early this morning
were moving northeast into southeast Nebraska. VAD profiler winds
along with satellite show presence of a weak MCV moving along the
Nebraska border at 09Z. Outflow boundary from earlier convection has
washed out and dew points have recovered back into the lower 70s in
north central Kansas.

Main concern for today will again be temperatures along with the
humidity producing heat indices this afternoon around 105 degrees
across the CWA. Highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a
degree warmer in the 95 to 100 degree range. Thermal axis on all
models extends from southwest to northeast across Kansas and
soundings show mixing down from around 700 mb. Will be issuing a
heat advisory beginning at 1 pm today.

Forecast soundings near the Nebraska border show cap eroding by late
afternoon along with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear around
20-25 kts decreases through the evening hours. A few storms may
become severe with wind and hail the main hazards. A warm front is
progged to be in southern Nebraska and may focus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms again late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave over New Mexico this morning will move across the Western
High Plains this afternoon then continue northward into the Dakotas
tonight. With ridge holding in place across eastern Kansas most of
this activity should remain to the northwest of the CWA. Lows
tonight remain on the warm side with low to mid 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Good model agreement with much drier low/mid level air coming north
around the ridge into eastern Kansas Saturday (700mb dewpoints 0 to
-10C, 850mb dewpoints 5 to 10C). This should spell very good
insolation and similar mixing from recent days to bring air temps
back to around 100F. Dewpoints also fall off but will still likely
support apparent temps in the 100 to 105 range. Given this will be
the third to fifth day of feels-like temps at to above these levels,
such prolonged heat rather rare this summer, and weekend activities,
will keep today`s advisory going into Saturday.

By Sunday afternoon, models begin to diverge in where the front will
be, owing to differences in how the Northern Rockies wave will
behave. Deep layer moisture picks back up again and will support
small precipitation chances for northern and western areas by late
afternoon where the front is more likely to be. With uncertainty on
the boundary, have less confidence in where temps will end up so
have not spread the Heat Advisory this far.

After Sunday night, front should steadily mix back northwest into
Monday night as the northern CONUS wave moves on northeast. This
may bring heat back into mainly East Central Kansas and at least
minor concern for and Advisory to be needed into the early work
week.

There continues to be much trouble in handling the next upper wave
and its interaction with the persistent southern CONUS ridge. The 0Z
ECMWF has now sided away from its 12Z run and the 0Z GFS and is much
slower with this wave pushing into the region. Have kept
precipitation chances somewhat reduced but still present through
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The late summer heat should
subside by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Am quite uncertain whether TS will hold together long enough to
make it into MHK. Profiler data shows a 40KT low level jet from
the south and southwest with the gust front approaching MHK from
the northwest. Think if the gust front was not going to make it
into the terminal, I`d be inclined to keep storms out of the
forecast. However seeing some isolated stuff develop over Lincoln
CO is good enough for me to add a VCTS thinking the gust front
could provide enough lift for some elevated storms. For TOP and
FOE, thinking is the further east the storms move, the more CIN
the will encounter as they move into the heart of the mid level
ridge axis. So will maintain a VFR forecast and continue to
monitor convective trends. Confidence in any model solution is low
as none have done a very good job with this evenings storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The record highest minimum temperature is being threatened again
today at Topeka. The current record for August 22 is 80, set in
2000. The temperatures at Concordia has already fallen below its
record of 78.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 220857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Decaying thunderstorms near the Nebraska border early this morning
were moving northeast into southeast Nebraska. VAD profiler winds
along with satellite show presence of a weak MCV moving along the
Nebraska border at 09Z. Outflow boundary from earlier convection has
washed out and dew points have recovered back into the lower 70s in
north central Kansas.

Main concern for today will again be temperatures along with the
humidity producing heat indices this afternoon around 105 degrees
across the CWA. Highs will be similar to yesterday and perhaps a
degree warmer in the 95 to 100 degree range. Thermal axis on all
models extends from southwest to northeast across Kansas and
soundings show mixing down from around 700 mb. Will be issuing a
heat advisory beginning at 1 pm today.

Forecast soundings near the Nebraska border show cap eroding by late
afternoon along with SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Bulk shear around
20-25 kts decreases through the evening hours. A few storms may
become severe with wind and hail the main hazards. A warm front is
progged to be in southern Nebraska and may focus isolated to
scattered thunderstorms again late this afternoon and evening. A
shortwave over New Mexico this morning will move across the Western
High Plains this afternoon then continue northward into the Dakotas
tonight. With ridge holding in place across eastern Kansas most of
this activity should remain to the northwest of the CWA. Lows
tonight remain on the warm side with low to mid 70s once again.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Good model agreement with much drier low/mid level air coming north
around the ridge into eastern Kansas Saturday (700mb dewpoints 0 to
-10C, 850mb dewpoints 5 to 10C). This should spell very good
insolation and similar mixing from recent days to bring air temps
back to around 100F. Dewpoints also fall off but will still likely
support apparent temps in the 100 to 105 range. Given this will be
the third to fifth day of feels-like temps at to above these levels,
such prolonged heat rather rare this summer, and weekend activities,
will keep today`s advisory going into Saturday.

By Sunday afternoon, models begin to diverge in where the front will
be, owing to differences in how the Northern Rockies wave will
behave. Deep layer moisture picks back up again and will support
small precipitation chances for northern and western areas by late
afternoon where the front is more likely to be. With uncertainty on
the boundary, have less confidence in where temps will end up so
have not spread the Heat Advisory this far.

After Sunday night, front should steadily mix back northwest into
Monday night as the northern CONUS wave moves on northeast. This
may bring heat back into mainly East Central Kansas and at least
minor concern for and Advisory to be needed into the early work
week.

There continues to be much trouble in handling the next upper wave
and its interaction with the persistent southern CONUS ridge. The 0Z
ECMWF has now sided away from its 12Z run and the 0Z GFS and is much
slower with this wave pushing into the region. Have kept
precipitation chances somewhat reduced but still present through
mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday. The late summer heat should
subside by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Am quite uncertain whether TS will hold together long enough to
make it into MHK. Profiler data shows a 40KT low level jet from
the south and southwest with the gust front approaching MHK from
the northwest. Think if the gust front was not going to make it
into the terminal, I`d be inclined to keep storms out of the
forecast. However seeing some isolated stuff develop over Lincoln
CO is good enough for me to add a VCTS thinking the gust front
could provide enough lift for some elevated storms. For TOP and
FOE, thinking is the further east the storms move, the more CIN
the will encounter as they move into the heart of the mid level
ridge axis. So will maintain a VFR forecast and continue to
monitor convective trends. Confidence in any model solution is low
as none have done a very good job with this evenings storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The record highest minimum temperature is being threatened again
today at Topeka. The current record for August 22 is 80, set in
2000. The temperatures at Concordia has already fallen below its
record of 78.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
CLIMATE...65





000
FXUS63 KICT 220739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DONT MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED THEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PUSH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE STORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR
LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER ON FRIDAY ARE MUCH MORE
REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL        101  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 220739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DONT MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED THEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PUSH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE STORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR
LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER ON FRIDAY ARE MUCH MORE
REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL        101  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 220739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DONT MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED THEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PUSH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE STORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR
LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER ON FRIDAY ARE MUCH MORE
REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL        101  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 220739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S...WITH HEAT INDICES LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS HOWEVER IF DEWPOINTS DONT MIX OUT LIKE EXPECTED THEN HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES. MEANWHILE THE MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE REGIME OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN
KANSAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD PUSH ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY NORTHEAST...THUS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE STORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL MIGRATE FURTHER NORTH FOR SATURDAY WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS TRY AND DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY WITH
RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT IT WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED...BETTER
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE HEAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER SOME
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT COULD ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK AS LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOW A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WOULD PUSH SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR
LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER ON FRIDAY ARE MUCH MORE
REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT   100  75 100  74 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  75 100  74 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL        101  71  98  72 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  72  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA         101  73  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON      100  74  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     98  74  99  74 /  10   0  10   0
CHANUTE         97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
IOLA            97  73  99  73 /  10   0  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    98  74  99  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 220734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated short term and aviation sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Winds will generally be from the south to southeast today as high
pressure continues to bring moisture up from the south. A frontal
boundary will be located along the I-70 corridor this afternoon
and may shift winds at the HYS terminal to more of an easterly
direction for a few hours. VFR conditions are expected across the
TAF sites with a few mid level clouds AOA100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 100  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42






000
FXUS63 KDDC 220734
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
234 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

...Updated short term and aviation sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The upper level low currently over the Desert Southwest will move
northeast towards the Four Corner`s Region today then into the
Central Rockies tonight. This low will also weaken as it moves
northeast becoming an open shortwave by this afternoon. Upper levels
of the atmosphere dry out as the day progresses with mid levels of
the atmosphere remaining moist.  This will allow more mid level
cloudiness to be observed across western Kansas today. A weak
frontal boundary at the surface is currently stretched across west
central Kansas this morning and is expected to move slightly
northward across northwest Kansas by this afternoon. Meanwhile, a
dome of high pressure across the southeast United States will
continue to bring up moisture from the gulf and allow southerly
winds to be observed across southwest Kansas. Dewpoints will
generally be in the low to mid 60s this afternoon with the exception
of far western Kansas where mid to upper 50s will be observed.
Another warm day is in store for the CWA with highs ranging from the
mid 90s across west central Kansas to around 100 degrees across
south central Kansas.

A few high based thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas this afternoon then slide eastward
into western Kansas by 00Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are then
confined along the I-70 corridor where the frontal boundary will be
located as we head into the overnight period. A few of these storms
across northwest Kansas and the i-70 corridor may become severe this
evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern.
The storms farther south are not expected to become severe, however,
the strongest cells may produce small hail and wind gusts up to 55
mph. The best chances of measurable precipitation will be across the
KS/CO border and northwest Kansas with lesser amounts expected
elsewhere. Precipitation chances end by sunrise tomorrow with partly
cloudy skies expected. Lows overnight are forecasted to range from
the mid 60s across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Winds will generally be from the south to southeast today as high
pressure continues to bring moisture up from the south. A frontal
boundary will be located along the I-70 corridor this afternoon
and may shift winds at the HYS terminal to more of an easterly
direction for a few hours. VFR conditions are expected across the
TAF sites with a few mid level clouds AOA100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  71  97  71 /  20  30  10  10
GCK  98  69  94  67 /  30  30  10  10
EHA  97  68  94  67 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  99  70  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  99  71  96  70 /  30  30  20  20
P28 100  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Hovorka_42







000
FXUS63 KGLD 220518
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONES TO KEEP IN MENTION OF AND
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU 12Z FRIDAY. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
ECHOES WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME THAT COULD DRIFT
THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THRU 22Z EXPECTED FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH ONLY
SCT LOW/HIGH CLDS EXPECTED. AFT 22Z WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO AREA...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RW/TRW. SOME
MVFR FOG POTENTIAL AFT 03Z AS FRONT MOVES NORTH. WINDS ENE 5-10KTS
BECM SE 5-15KTS BY 20Z FOR GLD...THEN SHIFT E TO N WITH FRONT
MOVING THRU AREA. MCK ENE TO E THRU PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 220518
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONES TO KEEP IN MENTION OF AND
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH THE FOCUS ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU 12Z FRIDAY. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS
ECHOES WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME THAT COULD DRIFT
THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...
OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THRU 22Z EXPECTED FOR BOTH FORECAST SITES WITH ONLY
SCT LOW/HIGH CLDS EXPECTED. AFT 22Z WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO AREA...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RW/TRW. SOME
MVFR FOG POTENTIAL AFT 03Z AS FRONT MOVES NORTH. WINDS ENE 5-10KTS
BECM SE 5-15KTS BY 20Z FOR GLD...THEN SHIFT E TO N WITH FRONT
MOVING THRU AREA. MCK ENE TO E THRU PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 220448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will be updating the forecast soon to remove the heat advisory as
HI values have fallen below 105 already and temps will continue to
cool. Am a little concerned that we may be dealing with convection
across northern KS for much of the evening. A 00Z objective
surface analysis suggests a weak trough axis or boundary has laid
over more west to east into northeast KS and the outflow from
convection over north central KS will likely help better define
this boundary. Once the low level jet increases this evening,
there could be enough lift along this boundary for scattered
storms to fester through much of the night. This seems to be the
idea anyways from the HRRR and RAP, although they may be a little
to far south with the QPF. Not sure how long a downbust threat
may last as cooling of the boundary layer should increase
convective inhibition. But locally heavy rainfall could be a
concern as models show more than enough moisture (PWs around 2
inches) available for moderate and heavy rainfall. With this in
mind will have tweaked POPs up a little for at least this evening
across north central and northeast KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Am quite uncertain whether TS will hold together long enough to
make it into MHK. Profiler data shows a 40KT low level jet from
the south and southwest with the gust front approaching MHK from
the northwest. Think if the gust front was not going to make it
into the terminal, I`d be inclined to keep storms out of the
forecast. However seeing some isolated stuff develop over Lincoln
CO is good enough for me to add a VCTS thinking the gust front
could provide enough lift for some elevated storms. For TOP and
FOE, thinking is the further east the storms move, the more CIN
the will encounter as they move into the heart of the mid level
ridge axis. So will maintain a VFR forecast and continue to
monitor convective trends. Confidence in any model solution is low
as none have done a very good job with this evenings storms.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will be updating the forecast soon to remove the heat advisory as
HI values have fallen below 105 already and temps will continue to
cool. Am a little concerned that we may be dealing with convection
across northern KS for much of the evening. A 00Z objective
surface analysis suggests a weak trough axis or boundary has laid
over more west to east into northeast KS and the outflow from
convection over north central KS will likely help better define
this boundary. Once the low level jet increases this evening,
there could be enough lift along this boundary for scattered
storms to fester through much of the night. This seems to be the
idea anyways from the HRRR and RAP, although they may be a little
to far south with the QPF. Not sure how long a downbust threat
may last as cooling of the boundary layer should increase
convective inhibition. But locally heavy rainfall could be a
concern as models show more than enough moisture (PWs around 2
inches) available for moderate and heavy rainfall. With this in
mind will have tweaked POPs up a little for at least this evening
across north central and northeast KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Am quite uncertain whether TS will hold together long enough to
make it into MHK. Profiler data shows a 40KT low level jet from
the south and southwest with the gust front approaching MHK from
the northwest. Think if the gust front was not going to make it
into the terminal, I`d be inclined to keep storms out of the
forecast. However seeing some isolated stuff develop over Lincoln
CO is good enough for me to add a VCTS thinking the gust front
could provide enough lift for some elevated storms. For TOP and
FOE, thinking is the further east the storms move, the more CIN
the will encounter as they move into the heart of the mid level
ridge axis. So will maintain a VFR forecast and continue to
monitor convective trends. Confidence in any model solution is low
as none have done a very good job with this evenings storms.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will be updating the forecast soon to remove the heat advisory as
HI values have fallen below 105 already and temps will continue to
cool. Am a little concerned that we may be dealing with convection
across northern KS for much of the evening. A 00Z objective
surface analysis suggests a weak trough axis or boundary has laid
over more west to east into northeast KS and the outflow from
convection over north central KS will likely help better define
this boundary. Once the low level jet increases this evening,
there could be enough lift along this boundary for scattered
storms to fester through much of the night. This seems to be the
idea anyways from the HRRR and RAP, although they may be a little
to far south with the QPF. Not sure how long a downbust threat
may last as cooling of the boundary layer should increase
convective inhibition. But locally heavy rainfall could be a
concern as models show more than enough moisture (PWs around 2
inches) available for moderate and heavy rainfall. With this in
mind will have tweaked POPs up a little for at least this evening
across north central and northeast KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Am quite uncertain whether TS will hold together long enough to
make it into MHK. Profiler data shows a 40KT low level jet from
the south and southwest with the gust front approaching MHK from
the northwest. Think if the gust front was not going to make it
into the terminal, I`d be inclined to keep storms out of the
forecast. However seeing some isolated stuff develop over Lincoln
CO is good enough for me to add a VCTS thinking the gust front
could provide enough lift for some elevated storms. For TOP and
FOE, thinking is the further east the storms move, the more CIN
the will encounter as they move into the heart of the mid level
ridge axis. So will maintain a VFR forecast and continue to
monitor convective trends. Confidence in any model solution is low
as none have done a very good job with this evenings storms.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220448
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will be updating the forecast soon to remove the heat advisory as
HI values have fallen below 105 already and temps will continue to
cool. Am a little concerned that we may be dealing with convection
across northern KS for much of the evening. A 00Z objective
surface analysis suggests a weak trough axis or boundary has laid
over more west to east into northeast KS and the outflow from
convection over north central KS will likely help better define
this boundary. Once the low level jet increases this evening,
there could be enough lift along this boundary for scattered
storms to fester through much of the night. This seems to be the
idea anyways from the HRRR and RAP, although they may be a little
to far south with the QPF. Not sure how long a downbust threat
may last as cooling of the boundary layer should increase
convective inhibition. But locally heavy rainfall could be a
concern as models show more than enough moisture (PWs around 2
inches) available for moderate and heavy rainfall. With this in
mind will have tweaked POPs up a little for at least this evening
across north central and northeast KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Am quite uncertain whether TS will hold together long enough to
make it into MHK. Profiler data shows a 40KT low level jet from
the south and southwest with the gust front approaching MHK from
the northwest. Think if the gust front was not going to make it
into the terminal, I`d be inclined to keep storms out of the
forecast. However seeing some isolated stuff develop over Lincoln
CO is good enough for me to add a VCTS thinking the gust front
could provide enough lift for some elevated storms. For TOP and
FOE, thinking is the further east the storms move, the more CIN
the will encounter as they move into the heart of the mid level
ridge axis. So will maintain a VFR forecast and continue to
monitor convective trends. Confidence in any model solution is low
as none have done a very good job with this evenings storms.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KICT 220437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TNGT-SAT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDER WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LEADING TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT A
LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT NOT AS FAST OVER SE
KS...SO COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVER NEAR 105 FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE
SW US FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED GENERALLY JUST EAST OF KGLD TO NEAR
KGCK. INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES
VALUES OF 2500-2800 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION OVER WRN KS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
LATE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
OK PANHANDLE INCREASES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FROM GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KMHK AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF CHANGE IN HOW THE GOING FORECAST WILL PLAY
OUT FRI/SAT...WITH HOT TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BETTER
MIXING IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON...BUT BETTER MIXING OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE.

WILL ALSO SEE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRI/SAT
AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SUN-TUE: SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE.

CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MON/TUE...AS
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SRN KS...AND POSSIBLY WASH OUT OVER
THE AREA BY TUE. THINK STORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ALOT OF MESOSCALE
EFFECTS...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EVOLVE...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CANT DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO WITH TEMPS/PRECIP AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE SW FLOW AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GFS IS A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS FOR WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS A LOT SLOWER WITH THIS IMPULSE...HOLDING IT BACK
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HOT TEMPS
WILL STAY AROUND POSSIBLY THROUGH THU OR FRI. SO POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHEN THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR
LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER ON FRIDAY ARE MUCH MORE
REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76  99  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
NEWTON          76  98  74  96 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        77  98  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         74  98  73  95 /  30  10  30   0
GREAT BEND      74  97  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
SALINA          77 100  74  97 /  30  10  20   0
MCPHERSON       76  98  74  96 /  20  10  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  98  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  98  73  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 220437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TNGT-SAT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDER WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LEADING TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT A
LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT NOT AS FAST OVER SE
KS...SO COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVER NEAR 105 FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE
SW US FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED GENERALLY JUST EAST OF KGLD TO NEAR
KGCK. INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES
VALUES OF 2500-2800 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION OVER WRN KS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
LATE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
OK PANHANDLE INCREASES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FROM GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KMHK AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF CHANGE IN HOW THE GOING FORECAST WILL PLAY
OUT FRI/SAT...WITH HOT TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BETTER
MIXING IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON...BUT BETTER MIXING OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE.

WILL ALSO SEE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRI/SAT
AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SUN-TUE: SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE.

CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MON/TUE...AS
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SRN KS...AND POSSIBLY WASH OUT OVER
THE AREA BY TUE. THINK STORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ALOT OF MESOSCALE
EFFECTS...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EVOLVE...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CANT DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO WITH TEMPS/PRECIP AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE SW FLOW AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GFS IS A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS FOR WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS A LOT SLOWER WITH THIS IMPULSE...HOLDING IT BACK
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HOT TEMPS
WILL STAY AROUND POSSIBLY THROUGH THU OR FRI. SO POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHEN THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR
LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER ON FRIDAY ARE MUCH MORE
REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76  99  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
NEWTON          76  98  74  96 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        77  98  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         74  98  73  95 /  30  10  30   0
GREAT BEND      74  97  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
SALINA          77 100  74  97 /  30  10  20   0
MCPHERSON       76  98  74  96 /  20  10  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  98  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  98  73  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 220437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TNGT-SAT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDER WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LEADING TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT A
LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT NOT AS FAST OVER SE
KS...SO COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVER NEAR 105 FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE
SW US FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED GENERALLY JUST EAST OF KGLD TO NEAR
KGCK. INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES
VALUES OF 2500-2800 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION OVER WRN KS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
LATE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
OK PANHANDLE INCREASES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FROM GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KMHK AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF CHANGE IN HOW THE GOING FORECAST WILL PLAY
OUT FRI/SAT...WITH HOT TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BETTER
MIXING IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON...BUT BETTER MIXING OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE.

WILL ALSO SEE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRI/SAT
AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SUN-TUE: SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE.

CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MON/TUE...AS
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SRN KS...AND POSSIBLY WASH OUT OVER
THE AREA BY TUE. THINK STORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ALOT OF MESOSCALE
EFFECTS...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EVOLVE...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CANT DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO WITH TEMPS/PRECIP AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE SW FLOW AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GFS IS A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS FOR WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS A LOT SLOWER WITH THIS IMPULSE...HOLDING IT BACK
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HOT TEMPS
WILL STAY AROUND POSSIBLY THROUGH THU OR FRI. SO POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHEN THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR
LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER ON FRIDAY ARE MUCH MORE
REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76  99  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
NEWTON          76  98  74  96 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        77  98  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         74  98  73  95 /  30  10  30   0
GREAT BEND      74  97  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
SALINA          77 100  74  97 /  30  10  20   0
MCPHERSON       76  98  74  96 /  20  10  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  98  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  98  73  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 220437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TNGT-SAT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDER WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LEADING TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT A
LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT NOT AS FAST OVER SE
KS...SO COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVER NEAR 105 FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE
SW US FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED GENERALLY JUST EAST OF KGLD TO NEAR
KGCK. INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES
VALUES OF 2500-2800 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION OVER WRN KS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
LATE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
OK PANHANDLE INCREASES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FROM GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KMHK AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF CHANGE IN HOW THE GOING FORECAST WILL PLAY
OUT FRI/SAT...WITH HOT TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BETTER
MIXING IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON...BUT BETTER MIXING OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE.

WILL ALSO SEE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRI/SAT
AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SUN-TUE: SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE.

CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MON/TUE...AS
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SRN KS...AND POSSIBLY WASH OUT OVER
THE AREA BY TUE. THINK STORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ALOT OF MESOSCALE
EFFECTS...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EVOLVE...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CANT DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO WITH TEMPS/PRECIP AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE SW FLOW AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GFS IS A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS FOR WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS A LOT SLOWER WITH THIS IMPULSE...HOLDING IT BACK
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HOT TEMPS
WILL STAY AROUND POSSIBLY THROUGH THU OR FRI. SO POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHEN THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A
SURFACE TROF THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR
LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SHORT DURATION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION TO VCTS AT KRSL AND KSLN AND AMEND AS
NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER ON FRIDAY ARE MUCH MORE
REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76  99  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
NEWTON          76  98  74  96 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        77  98  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         74  98  73  95 /  30  10  30   0
GREAT BEND      74  97  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
SALINA          77 100  74  97 /  30  10  20   0
MCPHERSON       76  98  74  96 /  20  10  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  98  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  98  73  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 220240
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
840 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE ON FORECAST TO AGAIN ADJUST FOR LATEST TEMP TRENDS.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER/RAIN FOR FAR
EASTERN/WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP STILL SHOWING SOME ECHOES THAT MAY TRAIL IN THE CWA BY
06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

TAF SITES WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HAVE PUT IN
VCSH THRU 03Z FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIAL
IN AREA...AND AGAIN FOR AFT 20Z FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON -TRW BUILDS
OVER REGION. MVFR FOG FOR MCK POSSIBLE 10Z-13Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
5-10KTS BECM ENE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO ESE BY 16Z
FOR GLD...AND ENE FOR MCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 220240
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
840 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE ON FORECAST TO AGAIN ADJUST FOR LATEST TEMP TRENDS.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER/RAIN FOR FAR
EASTERN/WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP STILL SHOWING SOME ECHOES THAT MAY TRAIL IN THE CWA BY
06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

TAF SITES WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HAVE PUT IN
VCSH THRU 03Z FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIAL
IN AREA...AND AGAIN FOR AFT 20Z FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON -TRW BUILDS
OVER REGION. MVFR FOG FOR MCK POSSIBLE 10Z-13Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
5-10KTS BECM ENE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO ESE BY 16Z
FOR GLD...AND ENE FOR MCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 220240
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
840 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE ON FORECAST TO AGAIN ADJUST FOR LATEST TEMP TRENDS.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER/RAIN FOR FAR
EASTERN/WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP STILL SHOWING SOME ECHOES THAT MAY TRAIL IN THE CWA BY
06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

TAF SITES WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HAVE PUT IN
VCSH THRU 03Z FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIAL
IN AREA...AND AGAIN FOR AFT 20Z FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON -TRW BUILDS
OVER REGION. MVFR FOG FOR MCK POSSIBLE 10Z-13Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
5-10KTS BECM ENE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO ESE BY 16Z
FOR GLD...AND ENE FOR MCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 220240
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
840 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

LATEST UPDATE ON FORECAST TO AGAIN ADJUST FOR LATEST TEMP TRENDS.
HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER/RAIN FOR FAR
EASTERN/WESTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST REGIONAL
RADAR LOOP STILL SHOWING SOME ECHOES THAT MAY TRAIL IN THE CWA BY
06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

TAF SITES WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HAVE PUT IN
VCSH THRU 03Z FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIAL
IN AREA...AND AGAIN FOR AFT 20Z FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON -TRW BUILDS
OVER REGION. MVFR FOG FOR MCK POSSIBLE 10Z-13Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
5-10KTS BECM ENE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO ESE BY 16Z
FOR GLD...AND ENE FOR MCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 220032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
732 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will be updating the forecast soon to remove the heat advisory as
HI values have fallen below 105 already and temps will continue to
cool. Am a little concerned that we may be dealing with convection
across northern KS for much of the evening. A 00Z objective
surface analysis suggests a weak trough axis or boundary has laid
over more west to east into northeast KS and the outflow from
convection over north central KS will likely help better define
this boundary. Once the low level jet increases this evening,
there could be enough lift along this boundary for scattered
storms to fester through much of the night. This seems to be the
idea anyways from the HRRR and RAP, although they may be a little
to far south with the QPF. Not sure how long a downbust threat
may last as cooling of the boundary layer should increase
convective inhibition. But locally heavy rainfall could be a
concern as models show more than enough moisture (PWs around 2
inches) available for moderate and heavy rainfall. With this in
mind will have tweaked POPs up a little for at least this evening
across north central and northeast KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will continue with a VFR forecast expecting convection to remain
mainly to the west and north of the terminals. Models show the
surface trough axis remaining just west of the forecast area and
the weak warm front along the state line remaining relatively
stationary. Therefore think chances for TS in the terminals is
slight at best. The boundary layer is expected to remain somewhat
mixed once again tonight, so concerns for LLWS are minor but will
monitor OBS for signs of the boundary layer decoupling this
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
732 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will be updating the forecast soon to remove the heat advisory as
HI values have fallen below 105 already and temps will continue to
cool. Am a little concerned that we may be dealing with convection
across northern KS for much of the evening. A 00Z objective
surface analysis suggests a weak trough axis or boundary has laid
over more west to east into northeast KS and the outflow from
convection over north central KS will likely help better define
this boundary. Once the low level jet increases this evening,
there could be enough lift along this boundary for scattered
storms to fester through much of the night. This seems to be the
idea anyways from the HRRR and RAP, although they may be a little
to far south with the QPF. Not sure how long a downbust threat
may last as cooling of the boundary layer should increase
convective inhibition. But locally heavy rainfall could be a
concern as models show more than enough moisture (PWs around 2
inches) available for moderate and heavy rainfall. With this in
mind will have tweaked POPs up a little for at least this evening
across north central and northeast KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will continue with a VFR forecast expecting convection to remain
mainly to the west and north of the terminals. Models show the
surface trough axis remaining just west of the forecast area and
the weak warm front along the state line remaining relatively
stationary. Therefore think chances for TS in the terminals is
slight at best. The boundary layer is expected to remain somewhat
mixed once again tonight, so concerns for LLWS are minor but will
monitor OBS for signs of the boundary layer decoupling this
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
732 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will be updating the forecast soon to remove the heat advisory as
HI values have fallen below 105 already and temps will continue to
cool. Am a little concerned that we may be dealing with convection
across northern KS for much of the evening. A 00Z objective
surface analysis suggests a weak trough axis or boundary has laid
over more west to east into northeast KS and the outflow from
convection over north central KS will likely help better define
this boundary. Once the low level jet increases this evening,
there could be enough lift along this boundary for scattered
storms to fester through much of the night. This seems to be the
idea anyways from the HRRR and RAP, although they may be a little
to far south with the QPF. Not sure how long a downbust threat
may last as cooling of the boundary layer should increase
convective inhibition. But locally heavy rainfall could be a
concern as models show more than enough moisture (PWs around 2
inches) available for moderate and heavy rainfall. With this in
mind will have tweaked POPs up a little for at least this evening
across north central and northeast KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will continue with a VFR forecast expecting convection to remain
mainly to the west and north of the terminals. Models show the
surface trough axis remaining just west of the forecast area and
the weak warm front along the state line remaining relatively
stationary. Therefore think chances for TS in the terminals is
slight at best. The boundary layer is expected to remain somewhat
mixed once again tonight, so concerns for LLWS are minor but will
monitor OBS for signs of the boundary layer decoupling this
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 220032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
732 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will be updating the forecast soon to remove the heat advisory as
HI values have fallen below 105 already and temps will continue to
cool. Am a little concerned that we may be dealing with convection
across northern KS for much of the evening. A 00Z objective
surface analysis suggests a weak trough axis or boundary has laid
over more west to east into northeast KS and the outflow from
convection over north central KS will likely help better define
this boundary. Once the low level jet increases this evening,
there could be enough lift along this boundary for scattered
storms to fester through much of the night. This seems to be the
idea anyways from the HRRR and RAP, although they may be a little
to far south with the QPF. Not sure how long a downbust threat
may last as cooling of the boundary layer should increase
convective inhibition. But locally heavy rainfall could be a
concern as models show more than enough moisture (PWs around 2
inches) available for moderate and heavy rainfall. With this in
mind will have tweaked POPs up a little for at least this evening
across north central and northeast KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will continue with a VFR forecast expecting convection to remain
mainly to the west and north of the terminals. Models show the
surface trough axis remaining just west of the forecast area and
the weak warm front along the state line remaining relatively
stationary. Therefore think chances for TS in the terminals is
slight at best. The boundary layer is expected to remain somewhat
mixed once again tonight, so concerns for LLWS are minor but will
monitor OBS for signs of the boundary layer decoupling this
evening.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KICT 212346
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TNGT-SAT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDER WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LEADING TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT A
LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT NOT AS FAST OVER SE
KS...SO COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVER NEAR 105 FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE
SW US FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED GENERALLY JUST EAST OF KGLD TO NEAR
KGCK. INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES
VALUES OF 2500-2800 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION OVER WRN KS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
LATE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
OK PANHANDLE INCREASES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FROM GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KMHK AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF CHANGE IN HOW THE GOING FORECAST WILL PLAY
OUT FRI/SAT...WITH HOT TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BETTER
MIXING IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON...BUT BETTER MIXING OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE.

WILL ALSO SEE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRI/SAT
AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SUN-TUE: SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE.

CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MON/TUE...AS
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SRN KS...AND POSSIBLY WASH OUT OVER
THE AREA BY TUE. THINK STORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ALOT OF MESOSCALE
EFFECTS...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EVOLVE...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CANT DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO WITH TEMPS/PRECIP AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE SW FLOW AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GFS IS A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS FOR WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS A LOT SLOWER WITH THIS IMPULSE...HOLDING IT BACK
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HOT TEMPS
WILL STAY AROUND POSSIBLY THROUGH THU OR FRI. SO POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHEN THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG A SURFACE
TROF WHICH WILL NUDGE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO
SPARSE COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT KRSL AND
KSLN AND AMEND AS NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE MUCH MORE REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE SURFACE TROF IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76  99  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
NEWTON          76  98  74  96 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        77  98  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         74  98  73  95 /  20  10  30   0
GREAT BEND      74  97  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
SALINA          77 100  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
MCPHERSON       76  98  74  96 /  20  10  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  98  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  98  73  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 212346
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TNGT-SAT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDER WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LEADING TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT A
LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT NOT AS FAST OVER SE
KS...SO COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVER NEAR 105 FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE
SW US FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED GENERALLY JUST EAST OF KGLD TO NEAR
KGCK. INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES
VALUES OF 2500-2800 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION OVER WRN KS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
LATE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
OK PANHANDLE INCREASES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FROM GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KMHK AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF CHANGE IN HOW THE GOING FORECAST WILL PLAY
OUT FRI/SAT...WITH HOT TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BETTER
MIXING IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON...BUT BETTER MIXING OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE.

WILL ALSO SEE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRI/SAT
AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SUN-TUE: SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE.

CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MON/TUE...AS
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SRN KS...AND POSSIBLY WASH OUT OVER
THE AREA BY TUE. THINK STORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ALOT OF MESOSCALE
EFFECTS...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EVOLVE...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CANT DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO WITH TEMPS/PRECIP AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE SW FLOW AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GFS IS A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS FOR WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS A LOT SLOWER WITH THIS IMPULSE...HOLDING IT BACK
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HOT TEMPS
WILL STAY AROUND POSSIBLY THROUGH THU OR FRI. SO POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHEN THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG A SURFACE
TROF WHICH WILL NUDGE EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CATEGORY OR LOWER...THOUGH DUE TO
SPARSE COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT KRSL AND
KSLN AND AMEND AS NEEDED. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ARE MUCH MORE REMOTE FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE SURFACE TROF IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
WEST DURING FRIDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76  99  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
NEWTON          76  98  74  96 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        77  98  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         74  98  73  95 /  20  10  30   0
GREAT BEND      74  97  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
SALINA          77 100  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
MCPHERSON       76  98  74  96 /  20  10  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  98  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  98  73  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 212344
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
644 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A stationary trough axis this evening will lead to very isolated
thunderstorms. There will be a slightly greater concentration of
moderate to perhaps strong storms in the vicinity of the HYS
terminal through the mid evening hours, and we will carry VCTS
there through about 0200 UTC. Organized thunderstorm activity is
not expected to impact GCK and DDC this evening. South winds will
persist through the night and pick up in strength again during the
day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots during the
afternoon with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  72  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  71  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  73  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  77 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid






000
FXUS63 KDDC 212344
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
644 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A stationary trough axis this evening will lead to very isolated
thunderstorms. There will be a slightly greater concentration of
moderate to perhaps strong storms in the vicinity of the HYS
terminal through the mid evening hours, and we will carry VCTS
there through about 0200 UTC. Organized thunderstorm activity is
not expected to impact GCK and DDC this evening. South winds will
persist through the night and pick up in strength again during the
day Friday with sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots during the
afternoon with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  74  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  72  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  71  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  73  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  74  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  77 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid







000
FXUS63 KGLD 212340
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
540 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR LATEST ESTF UPDATE. SOME TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS FROM LATEST OBS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.
CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR DOES SHOW SCATTERED -TRW MVG ALONG THE
EDGES OF THE CWA...WHICH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAS COVERED WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

TAF SITES WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCT LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. HAVE PUT IN
VCSH THRU 03Z FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIAL
IN AREA...AND AGAIN FOR AFT 20Z FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON -TRW BUILDS
OVER REGION. MVFR FOG FOR MCK POSSIBLE 10Z-13Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
5-10KTS BECM ENE 5-10KTS BY 03Z FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO ESE BY 16Z
FOR GLD...AND ENE FOR MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 212311
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will continue with a VFR forecast expecting convection to remain
mainly to the west and north of the terminals. Models show the
surface trough axis remaining just west of the forecast area and
the weak warm front along the state line remaining relatively
stationary. Therefore think chances for TS in the terminals is
slight at best. The boundary layer is expected to remain somewhat
mixed once again tonight, so concerns for LLWS are minor but will
monitor OBS for signs of the boundary layer decoupling this
evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 212311
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will continue with a VFR forecast expecting convection to remain
mainly to the west and north of the terminals. Models show the
surface trough axis remaining just west of the forecast area and
the weak warm front along the state line remaining relatively
stationary. Therefore think chances for TS in the terminals is
slight at best. The boundary layer is expected to remain somewhat
mixed once again tonight, so concerns for LLWS are minor but will
monitor OBS for signs of the boundary layer decoupling this
evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 212311
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will continue with a VFR forecast expecting convection to remain
mainly to the west and north of the terminals. Models show the
surface trough axis remaining just west of the forecast area and
the weak warm front along the state line remaining relatively
stationary. Therefore think chances for TS in the terminals is
slight at best. The boundary layer is expected to remain somewhat
mixed once again tonight, so concerns for LLWS are minor but will
monitor OBS for signs of the boundary layer decoupling this
evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 212311
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
611 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Will continue with a VFR forecast expecting convection to remain
mainly to the west and north of the terminals. Models show the
surface trough axis remaining just west of the forecast area and
the weak warm front along the state line remaining relatively
stationary. Therefore think chances for TS in the terminals is
slight at best. The boundary layer is expected to remain somewhat
mixed once again tonight, so concerns for LLWS are minor but will
monitor OBS for signs of the boundary layer decoupling this
evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KGLD 212111
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK. DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION AT EITHER SITE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...BUT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK AFTER 06Z...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MENTZER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 212111
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

PERSISTENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
TO OUR WEST...ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING
FREQUENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME
FRIDAY NIGHT...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXPECTED COOL DOWN NEXT WEEK SO HAVE TRENDED COOLER IN THIS RUN OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW DISTURBANCES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING. NORTH
OF THE FRONT...SBCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
55 KTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2 INDICATE SEVERE WEATHER IS
IMMINENT. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IS CONCERNING AND WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE WITH WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADO ENVIRONMENT. LCLS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE SO WILL RAMP UP SEVERE WEATHER WORDING IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL SO A FLASH FLOODING
THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN ALONG
THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY SO
TRAINING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH OF A THREAT. ONE FINAL CONCERN...MAINLY
FOR SATURDAY MORNING...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BEHIND FRONT AND BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM HEAVY RAINS...THINKING FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE...MAY
DEVELOP IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ABLE TO SUBSIDE. MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR SATURDAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...EAST OF THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND MOVE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE NIGHT. ACTIVITY SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING AS THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE WORKED OVER
FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AS YET ANOTHER STRONGER...SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR SURFACE
SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIME FRAME WITH A SURFACE LOW TO
THE SOUTH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST KANSAS AND
EAST COLORADO AND POOLING MOISTURE...THUS HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-
50 KTS IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED SO YET ANOTHER FEW EVENINGS OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK. DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION AT EITHER SITE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...BUT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK AFTER 06Z...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 212058
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
358 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

At 3 PM, surface low pressure was situated over the Oklahoma
panhandle...connected by a weak cold front to another surface low in
southwest Minnesota. There was a second weak boundary, more of a
moisture discontinuity extending from just north of Russel, KS to
near Marysville, KS. immediately north of this moisture boundary,
low-level convergence and the presence of deeper moisture/more
instability have led to persistent showers and a few storms in
southern Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Aloft, a stream of
very weak disturbances were moving out of the desert southwest into
the central Plains, and will continue to do so through tomorrow.
Southwest flow aloft on the west side of an upper ridge has allowed
for continuous warm advection and a very hot regime locally.
Temperatures today have been in the upper 90s to lower 100s (with
the exception of areas very close to the NE border where there have
been more clouds) while dewpoints especially north and east have
held in the lower 70s. This has led to heat index values in the 102
to 108 range with the highest values east. Have issued a heat
advisory for northeast and east central KS where the highest T/Td
combinations should be in place through this evening.

This evening into tonight, will be watching a few features for
potential thunderstorm development. The first is the frontal zone in
north central KS. Surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg is in
place in the airmass just north of the weak boundary. Wind shear is
rather weak, but between the ample afternoon heating of the boundary
and what seems to be an incoming weak short wave trough, could see
scattered thunderstorm development in north central KS. If storms
can develop through early evening, the very steep low level lapse
rates would support localized strong downbursts. However, severe
potential appears low as there may not be sufficient
lift/instability to support the precip loading needed for severe
winds. Will need to monitor regardless as the depth of the steep
lapse rates would support damaging winds with only moderate
mid-level downdrafts.  As the evening progresses, expect a low level
jet to increase a bit with some weak convergence into north central
KS and a zone of more aggressive moisture transport from south
central into northeast KS. This may further support north central KS
thunderstorms by around 03Z, and could support further development
into northeast KS by late evening and early morning. The chances are
slight for thunderstorms at any given point, and the potential for
severe weather overnight appears even lower yet given the expected
elevated nature of the storms.

Friday is a bit uncertain regarding temperatures and potential heat
headlines. This is mainly due to uncertainty in how long any
scattered precip or remnant cloud cover will be over the area. The
current forecast leans toward a mainly cloud-free late morning and
early afternoon. This, along with slightly warmer 850 temps would
suggest temperatures near or slightly warmer than Thursday with
dewpoints near or slightly lower than Thursday. IF this scenario
plays out, a heat advisory could be needed for parts of the area
again, but given at least some potential for convective debris and
lower temps, have not issued at this time. Will then look to late
afternoon for more potential for scattered storm development, mainly
in northern KS.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The mid-level pattern is expected to remain fairly unchanged Friday
night into the weekend as models show the mid-level ridge staying
anchored over much of the southeastern U.S. with the mid-level
trough in place over the western U.S.  Friday night into Saturday
this mid-level trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is
expected to deepen and dig southward along the western Rockies
before a strong embedded shortwave trough lifts northeastward toward
the Northern Plains Saturday night into Sunday. As this shortwave
trough pivots northward, it will help to slowly push the stationary
front that will remain stalled out over north central Kansas and
along the Kansas/Nebraska border eastward through the forecast area
Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this frontal passage, southwesterly
surface winds will prevail as surface low pressure remains anchored
over the High Plains. As a result, warm air advection will persist
through the weekend with unseasonably hot conditions. Highs for
Saturday are expected to reach into the mid/upper 90s with afternoon
heat indices rising into the 98F to 102F degree range. As winds
shift to the north with the frontal passage, a slight cool-down is
expected by early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low/mid
90s on Monday. As for precipitation chances through this period,
there is a chance for some isolated nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night with the help of the
low-level jet, primarily focused over north central Kansas and along
the Kansas/Nebraska border. Thunderstorm chances increase by Sunday
night into Monday with the frontal passage. Models continue to show
this front lifting northward over the region as a warm front by
Monday night, however there are still some model discrepancies with
regards to just how far north this warm front will lift. At this
time though, models seem to be trending toward much of the southern
half of the forecast area being in the warm sector as this boundary
will likely become stationary once again near the Kansas/Nebraska
border through Tuesday night, so expect temperatures to warm up once
again into at least the low/mid 90s and possibly into the upper 90s
for some locations. Tuesday night into Wednesday we may see a repeat
of events as models are showing the stationary boundary once again
transitioning to a cold front that will progress eastward across the
region as a stronger mid-level trough develops and deepens across
the Rockies. This stronger trough should help to finally push this
system east of the area mid-week, with increased precipitation
chances Tuesday night and Wednesday followed by slightly cooler
temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Will be
monitoring a weak front in north central KS as it may develop a few
thunderstorms with a small chance of impacting MHK...mainly
between 02Z and 07Z. TS seems unlikely at this point though.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KICT 212005
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TNGT-SAT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDER WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LEADING TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT A
LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT NOT AS FAST OVER SE
KS...SO COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVER NEAR 105 FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE
SW US FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED GENERALLY JUST EAST OF KGLD TO NEAR
KGCK. INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES
VALUES OF 2500-2800 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION OVER WRN KS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
LATE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
OK PANHANDLE INCREASES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FROM GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KMHK AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF CHANGE IN HOW THE GOING FORECAST WILL PLAY
OUT FRI/SAT...WITH HOT TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BETTER
MIXING IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON...BUT BETTER MIXING OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE.

WILL ALSO SEE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRI/SAT
AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SUN-TUE: SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE.

CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MON/TUE...AS
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SRN KS...AND POSSIBLY WASH OUT OVER
THE AREA BY TUE. THINK STORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ALOT OF MESOSCALE
EFFECTS...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EVOLVE...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CANT DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO WITH TEMPS/PRECIP AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE SW FLOW AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GFS IS A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS FOR WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS A LOT SLOWER WITH THIS IMPULSE...HOLDING IT BACK
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HOT TEMPS
WILL STAY AROUND POSSIBLY THROUGH THU OR FRI. SO POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHEN THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE ALL CONTINUED TO
SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN AN AREA ROUGHLY FROM HUTCHINSON TO
DODGE CITY. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS FAVORABLE AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED MUCH.

THE HRRR FORECASTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
ACCURATE AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK TODAYS WILL NOT BE. THAT
SAID...THE MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD LESS PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WHILE TRENDING MORE TOWARD STORMS
REMAINING SOUTH AND BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE.

KEPT CONTINUITY IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. BEST TIME FOR CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE TAFS IS FROM 00Z-05Z. THIS TIMING IS MUCH EARLIER THAN
THE LAMP OUTPUT...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. THE LAMP OUTPUT
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE HRRR.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76  99  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
NEWTON          76  98  74  96 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        77  98  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         74  98  73  95 /  20  10  30   0
GREAT BEND      74  97  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
SALINA          77 100  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
MCPHERSON       76  98  74  96 /  20  10  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  98  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  98  73  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 212005
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TNGT-SAT: ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON UNDER WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LEADING TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT A
LITTLE BETTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...BUT NOT AS FAST OVER SE
KS...SO COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVER NEAR 105 FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A NICE MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE
SW US FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW KS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED GENERALLY JUST EAST OF KGLD TO NEAR
KGCK. INSTABILITY AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES
VALUES OF 2500-2800 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION OVER WRN KS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
LATE EVENING PROGRESSES...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
OK PANHANDLE INCREASES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO
EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AT LEAST UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED ALONG OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 FROM GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES THE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS KMHK AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
CHANCE.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF CHANGE IN HOW THE GOING FORECAST WILL PLAY
OUT FRI/SAT...WITH HOT TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH BETTER
MIXING IN WRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO MAX TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON...BUT BETTER MIXING OF SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE.

WILL ALSO SEE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR FRI/SAT
AS WELL...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SUN-TUE: SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS BOUNDARY DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE.

CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MON/TUE...AS
POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
QUESTION.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER SRN KS...AND POSSIBLY WASH OUT OVER
THE AREA BY TUE. THINK STORM CHANCES WILL HAVE ALOT OF MESOSCALE
EFFECTS...SO HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE LOCATED IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE OVER THE
AREA.

REST OF THE EXTENDED: LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WILL EVOLVE...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CANT DECIDE ON WHAT
TO DO WITH TEMPS/PRECIP AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE SW FLOW AND ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. GFS IS A LOT MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BRINGING IT ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WED...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO
THE PLAINS FOR WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS A LOT SLOWER WITH THIS IMPULSE...HOLDING IT BACK
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HOT TEMPS
WILL STAY AROUND POSSIBLY THROUGH THU OR FRI. SO POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL ALSO BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHEN THE BOUNDARY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE ALL CONTINUED TO
SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN AN AREA ROUGHLY FROM HUTCHINSON TO
DODGE CITY. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS FAVORABLE AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED MUCH.

THE HRRR FORECASTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
ACCURATE AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK TODAYS WILL NOT BE. THAT
SAID...THE MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD LESS PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WHILE TRENDING MORE TOWARD STORMS
REMAINING SOUTH AND BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE.

KEPT CONTINUITY IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. BEST TIME FOR CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE TAFS IS FROM 00Z-05Z. THIS TIMING IS MUCH EARLIER THAN
THE LAMP OUTPUT...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. THE LAMP OUTPUT
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE HRRR.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  98  75  97 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      76  99  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
NEWTON          76  98  74  96 /  20  10  10   0
ELDORADO        77  98  74  97 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  98  75  98 /   0  10  10   0
RUSSELL         74  98  73  95 /  20  10  30   0
GREAT BEND      74  97  73  96 /  20  10  20   0
SALINA          77 100  74  97 /  20  10  20   0
MCPHERSON       76  98  74  96 /  20  10  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     76  98  74  98 /   0  10   0   0
CHANUTE         76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
IOLA            76  97  73  97 /   0  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    76  98  73  98 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 211947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BRINGS MOIST MONSOONAL AIR INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. TEMPS MAY
NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
POPS FOR SUNDAY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO COULD PRODUCE SOME OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS SOMEWHAT COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LOWS NEAR 60.

MONDAY...ANY CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND DUE TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR STORMS TO
WORK WITH...BUT A DRY LAYER BELOW 600MB WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO JUST
SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. HIGHS WARM UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOW 90S DUE TO THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
THROUGHOUT NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
SWING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. AT PRESENT TIME...GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WET SOLUTION. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. CANADIAN SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS BUT SIMILAR ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO SUPPORT KEEPING 50+ POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK. DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION AT EITHER SITE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...BUT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK AFTER 06Z...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MENTZER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 211947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED PAST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE DRYING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...BUT CONTINUE TO BE OVER
60 OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THE AIR MASS IS NOT
OVERLY UNSTABLE...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND
500 J/KG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE FRONT RANGE...BUT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A FEW
STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 02Z. FURTHER...HAVE INCLUDED SOME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE FAR EAST WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
LOW AFTER 06Z EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY
KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST FOG...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO. AN
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 18Z. SURFACE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH DURING
THE DAY...PROVIDING MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE.
BY 00Z...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KMCK TO KITR...AND THINK THIS
AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 1500 J/KG EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE
0-6 KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH
MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND
1.50 INCHES...EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AND THIS WILL IMPACT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BRINGS MOIST MONSOONAL AIR INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. TEMPS MAY
NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
POPS FOR SUNDAY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO COULD PRODUCE SOME OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS SOMEWHAT COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LOWS NEAR 60.

MONDAY...ANY CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND DUE TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR STORMS TO
WORK WITH...BUT A DRY LAYER BELOW 600MB WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO JUST
SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. HIGHS WARM UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOW 90S DUE TO THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
THROUGHOUT NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
SWING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. AT PRESENT TIME...GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WET SOLUTION. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. CANADIAN SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS BUT SIMILAR ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO SUPPORT KEEPING 50+ POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK. DO NOT EXPECT
CONVECTION AT EITHER SITE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...BUT CONVECTIVE
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK AFTER 06Z...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 211913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
213 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  73  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  72  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  74  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  75  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  78 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
213 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  73  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  72  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  74  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  75  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  78 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
213 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  73  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  72  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  74  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  75  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  78 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211913
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
213 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to long term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will see slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend along with
a chance for storms as a front eventually traverses across the forecast
area of responsibility. Beyond that, there is some disagreement where
this front will stall out between the models. The net result is temperature
uncertainty in how much of a cool down we will see. Temps in the grids
are pretty much above normal through the pd, except mid week where more
seasonal values are expected. There will be small chances for storms
through Thursday, but todays models are trending more dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  73  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  72  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  74  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  75  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  78 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A southwesterly flow will persist across the Central Plains
through the weekend period into early next week as an upper ridge
axis remains nearly stationary from the lower Mississippi Valley
to the Western Great Lakes Region. All the models are in decent
agreement with an upper low, located just off the coast of
southern California at 00z Thursday, weakening as it approaches
the central Rockies late week and early this weekend. Cloud cover
and precipitation chances will improve as tropical moisture
increases ahead of this approaching upper level system so will
retain higher chances across west central and north central Kansas
Friday night given the timing of this weakening upper system and
location of a surface boundary. Precipitation chances will then
continue from late this weekend through early next week as another
upper level trough approaches the area from the west and a cold
front drops south into western Kansas.

Temperatures around 100 degree on Friday still looks on track
based on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends from the ECMWF,
NAM, and GFS. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the
weekend period given the increase in tropical moisture and
slightly cooler temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z
Sunday and 00z Monday. Temperatures will fall back to more
seasonal levels early next week as the cold front moves south into
portions of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  73  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  72  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  74  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  75  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  78 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke






000
FXUS63 KDDC 211850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A southwesterly flow will persist across the Central Plains
through the weekend period into early next week as an upper ridge
axis remains nearly stationary from the lower Mississippi Valley
to the Western Great Lakes Region. All the models are in decent
agreement with an upper low, located just off the coast of
southern California at 00z Thursday, weakening as it approaches
the central Rockies late week and early this weekend. Cloud cover
and precipitation chances will improve as tropical moisture
increases ahead of this approaching upper level system so will
retain higher chances across west central and north central Kansas
Friday night given the timing of this weakening upper system and
location of a surface boundary. Precipitation chances will then
continue from late this weekend through early next week as another
upper level trough approaches the area from the west and a cold
front drops south into western Kansas.

Temperatures around 100 degree on Friday still looks on track
based on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends from the ECMWF,
NAM, and GFS. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the
weekend period given the increase in tropical moisture and
slightly cooler temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z
Sunday and 00z Monday. Temperatures will fall back to more
seasonal levels early next week as the cold front moves south into
portions of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  73  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  72  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  74  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  75  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  78 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke






000
FXUS63 KDDC 211850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A southwesterly flow will persist across the Central Plains
through the weekend period into early next week as an upper ridge
axis remains nearly stationary from the lower Mississippi Valley
to the Western Great Lakes Region. All the models are in decent
agreement with an upper low, located just off the coast of
southern California at 00z Thursday, weakening as it approaches
the central Rockies late week and early this weekend. Cloud cover
and precipitation chances will improve as tropical moisture
increases ahead of this approaching upper level system so will
retain higher chances across west central and north central Kansas
Friday night given the timing of this weakening upper system and
location of a surface boundary. Precipitation chances will then
continue from late this weekend through early next week as another
upper level trough approaches the area from the west and a cold
front drops south into western Kansas.

Temperatures around 100 degree on Friday still looks on track
based on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends from the ECMWF,
NAM, and GFS. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the
weekend period given the increase in tropical moisture and
slightly cooler temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z
Sunday and 00z Monday. Temperatures will fall back to more
seasonal levels early next week as the cold front moves south into
portions of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  73  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  72  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  74  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  75  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  78 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke






000
FXUS63 KDDC 211850
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
150 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated for the short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

We will be in a southwest flow aloft through much of Friday. That
means the hot weather will continue and There will be a surface
trough in the southwestern Kansas vicinity. There is a trough
currently over the central part of our CWA, and a surface low
pressure system near Scott City. There is a front just barely in
southern Nebraska, which should drop into our northern most
counties Friday evening.  There will be precipitation chances in
the form of thunderstorms near the surface boundaries, both late
this afternoon and into the evening, but not too high. I think the
strong convergence due to south to southwest surface winds will
subside before midnight, and precipitation chances will diminish
by midnight.  As for minimum temperatures tonight, I raised them up
slightly mainly due this morning`s low temperatures nearly setting
records.

On Friday, it will again warm up with maximum temperatures topping
out in the upper 90s in the Syracuse to Hays areas, and to near 100F
degrees along the Oklahoma border from Larned to Medicine Lodge.
There is a an upper wave coming northeast in the h5 flow, which will
destabilize the upper atmosphere by afternoon.  With the trough and
front both in the area, and abundant low level heating, the chances
for thunderstorms will increase in the afternoon and late
afternoon.  The SPC folks show a slight risk for severe storms to
our north, and that is where the most instability will be when the
front lifts northward. Precipitation chances will be in the 40
percent range in our far west along the Colorado border by 23z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A southwesterly flow will persist across the Central Plains
through the weekend period into early next week as an upper ridge
axis remains nearly stationary from the lower Mississippi Valley
to the Western Great Lakes Region. All the models are in decent
agreement with an upper low, located just off the coast of
southern California at 00z Thursday, weakening as it approaches
the central Rockies late week and early this weekend. Cloud cover
and precipitation chances will improve as tropical moisture
increases ahead of this approaching upper level system so will
retain higher chances across west central and north central Kansas
Friday night given the timing of this weakening upper system and
location of a surface boundary. Precipitation chances will then
continue from late this weekend through early next week as another
upper level trough approaches the area from the west and a cold
front drops south into western Kansas.

Temperatures around 100 degree on Friday still looks on track
based on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends from the ECMWF,
NAM, and GFS. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the
weekend period given the increase in tropical moisture and
slightly cooler temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z
Sunday and 00z Monday. Temperatures will fall back to more
seasonal levels early next week as the cold front moves south into
portions of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  99  70  94 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  73  98  68  94 /  20  20  30  10
EHA  72  97  68  93 /  20  40  50  10
LBL  74  99  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  75  99  70  95 /  20  20  30  20
P28  78 100  73  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke






000
FXUS63 KICT 211810
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
110 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM NORTHEAST CO TO
CENTRAL & EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG A SLOW SE-MOVING
COLD FRONT CURVING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO THE CO/NM BORDER. THE
DRIVING MECHANISM HAS BEEN A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TO EXTREME NORTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING YET
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE WFO WICHITA PREMISES WHERE SOUTH 15
TO 25 MPH WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 80S IN ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TODAY:
THE LARGE MID-UPPER HIGH COVERING THE GULF COAST REGION THAT HAS BEEN A
TOPIC THE PAST 3 NIGHTS IS BEHAVING AS EXPECTED...SPREADING SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD FORCE THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS NE ACROSS NEBRASKA WHERE IT`LL SHEAR
QUICKLY TODAY. THE RESULT: MORE DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD TODAY.

TONIGHT:
THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROFFING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE INDUCING FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE TO
MIGRATE NE ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL KS BUT MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE A BIT
FEEBLE & WITH WARM MID LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIMITED
WITH ANY CHANCES CONFINED TO CENTRAL KS.

FRI & FRI NIGHT:
AFTER ANOTHER HOT & BREEZY DAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY VENTURE INTO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD FROM WESTERN KS LATE TONIGHT AS A MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE & NORTHEAST
CO BUT WITH THE MASSIVE MID-UPPER HIGH CONTINUING TO SPREAD/RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE SHORTWAVE WOULD BE FORCED NE TOWARD THE
NEBRASKA/SD BORDER. AS SUCH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. HAVE ASSIGNED 20-30% POPS TO AREAS
PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135.

SAT & SAT NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED INTENSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEING "FORCED" TO
MOVE DUE N OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SAT HOT & DRY WEATHER WILL AGAIN GRIP
ALL AREAS ON SAT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT
NIGHT AS INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE MT/ND BORDER. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL SCOOT DUE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF CYCLONE TOWARD...THEN
ACROSS...THE CO/KS BORDER. THIS WOULD FORCE A COLD FRONT ESE ACROSS THE
CO/KS BORDER LATE SAT NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD SURGE E/NE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS LATE SAT NIGHT & EARLY SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY ANTICIPATED FOR SUN & SUN NIGHT THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MON NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST/MOST INTENSE MID-UPPER WAVE SURGES E ACROSS
KS & NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE ALL CONTINUED TO
SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN AN AREA ROUGHLY FROM HUTCHINSON TO
DODGE CITY. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS FAVORABLE AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED MUCH.

THE HRRR FORECASTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
ACCURATE AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK TODAYS WILL NOT BE. THAT
SAID...THE MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD LESS PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WHILE TRENDING MORE TOWARD STORMS
REMAINING SOUTH AND BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE.

KEPT CONTINUITY IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. BEST TIME FOR CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE TAFS IS FROM 00Z-05Z. THIS TIMING IS MUCH EARLIER THAN
THE LAMP OUTPUT...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. THE LAMP OUTPUT
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE HRRR.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  77  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      99  76  99  75 /  10  20  10  20
NEWTON          98  76  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        98  77  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  77  97  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL        100  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  30
GREAT BEND     100  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA         101  77  99  75 /  10  20  10  20
MCPHERSON      100  76  98  75 /  10  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     98  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         98  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            97  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    97  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 211810
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
110 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM NORTHEAST CO TO
CENTRAL & EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG A SLOW SE-MOVING
COLD FRONT CURVING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO THE CO/NM BORDER. THE
DRIVING MECHANISM HAS BEEN A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TO EXTREME NORTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING YET
ANOTHER VERY WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE WFO WICHITA PREMISES WHERE SOUTH 15
TO 25 MPH WINDS HAVE HELD TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 80S IN ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TODAY:
THE LARGE MID-UPPER HIGH COVERING THE GULF COAST REGION THAT HAS BEEN A
TOPIC THE PAST 3 NIGHTS IS BEHAVING AS EXPECTED...SPREADING SLOWLY WEST
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD FORCE THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS NE ACROSS NEBRASKA WHERE IT`LL SHEAR
QUICKLY TODAY. THE RESULT: MORE DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEIGHBORHOOD TODAY.

TONIGHT:
THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROFFING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL CONTINUE INDUCING FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE TO
MIGRATE NE ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL KS BUT MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE A BIT
FEEBLE & WITH WARM MID LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE LIMITED
WITH ANY CHANCES CONFINED TO CENTRAL KS.

FRI & FRI NIGHT:
AFTER ANOTHER HOT & BREEZY DAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY VENTURE INTO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD FROM WESTERN KS LATE TONIGHT AS A MORE ROBUST MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE & NORTHEAST
CO BUT WITH THE MASSIVE MID-UPPER HIGH CONTINUING TO SPREAD/RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE SHORTWAVE WOULD BE FORCED NE TOWARD THE
NEBRASKA/SD BORDER. AS SUCH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF KS. HAVE ASSIGNED 20-30% POPS TO AREAS
PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135.

SAT & SAT NIGHT:
WITH THE AFORE-MENTIONED INTENSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEING "FORCED" TO
MOVE DUE N OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SAT HOT & DRY WEATHER WILL AGAIN GRIP
ALL AREAS ON SAT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SAT
NIGHT AS INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE MT/ND BORDER. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL SCOOT DUE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF CYCLONE TOWARD...THEN
ACROSS...THE CO/KS BORDER. THIS WOULD FORCE A COLD FRONT ESE ACROSS THE
CO/KS BORDER LATE SAT NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS WOULD SURGE E/NE TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS LATE SAT NIGHT & EARLY SUN MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY ANTICIPATED FOR SUN & SUN NIGHT THE
BETTER CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MON NIGHT THRU TUE
NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST/MOST INTENSE MID-UPPER WAVE SURGES E ACROSS
KS & NEBRASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
CONVECTION. THE HRRR MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING HAVE ALL CONTINUED TO
SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN AN AREA ROUGHLY FROM HUTCHINSON TO
DODGE CITY. THIS IS JUST AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS FAVORABLE AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED MUCH.

THE HRRR FORECASTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
ACCURATE AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK TODAYS WILL NOT BE. THAT
SAID...THE MODEL IS TRENDING TOWARD LESS PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WHILE TRENDING MORE TOWARD STORMS
REMAINING SOUTH AND BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE.

KEPT CONTINUITY IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. BEST TIME FOR CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE TAFS IS FROM 00Z-05Z. THIS TIMING IS MUCH EARLIER THAN
THE LAMP OUTPUT...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE HRRR. THE LAMP OUTPUT
HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE HRRR.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  77  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      99  76  99  75 /  10  20  10  20
NEWTON          98  76  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        98  77  98  75 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   99  77  97  76 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL        100  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  30
GREAT BEND     100  74  97  74 /  20  20  10  20
SALINA         101  77  99  75 /  10  20  10  20
MCPHERSON      100  76  98  75 /  10  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     98  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         98  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            97  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    97  76  97  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211804
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Thunderstorms again not far from the local area and could skirt the
northwestern counties over the next few hours. This appears the
result of better moisture and moisture convergence via the low level
jet, with with southwest low-mid level flow likely keeping this
focused to the north. Some gustiness in surface winds has been
common overnight due to the stronger jet, helping keep temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Will keep small mention of precipitation very early in the far north
as decreasing mass flow occurs from the nocturnal jet mixing out
through the mid morning. Models are very similar with 850mb temps
rising another 1-2C with mixing well through this layer bringing
highs up in kind. Dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s to around
70 and bring apparent temps into the 101 to 105 range, but
confidence in the higher levels being widespread or more than brief
is too low for a Heat Advisory. For tonight, the low level jet,
though weaker, looks to be displaced a bit farther southeast, with
deep layer moisture increasing from the southwest. Setup doesn`t
appear as strong as that seen to the northwest this morning, but
small thunder chances seem in order for mainly northern and central
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Friday and through the weekend the heat continues, as upper ridge
remains solid to the east of the forecast area and noses northward
into the Great Lakes through this period. Shortwave lifts
northeast out of the desert southwest through the western
periphery of the upper high and into the northern plains by early
Sunday, bringing periodic chances for rain along our northern and
western borders. Eastern areas remain capped as influence of upper
ridge prevails. High temperatures may cool along the north if
clouds or rain chances can materialize, but mid to upper 90s
continue in the eastern counties. Heat indicies Friday near
100-105 and come down just a few degrees each day over the
weekend.

GFS and EC both lift leading shortwave trof into the northern
plains by late weekend. While both then lift the larger eastern
lobe of the upper trof into southern Canada, the EC is then deeper
and stronger with the next piece of energy to move into the back
side of the longwave trof over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is
weaker and more progressive, and swings the trof across the plains
by the end of the forecast period Wednesday. The EC retrogrades
the energy, which boosts the upper high back northward into the
Central Plains. Mondays forecast would be influenced by how far
south the surface front can be pushed before southwesterly flow
aloft aids in pushing the front back northward. Unfortunately both
solutions would suggest even if Monday brings a cooler shot and a
chance for precipitation, that this push on Tuesday would make
short work of bringing the warm temperatures back north for
Tuesday. Progressive GFS would bring front through on Wednesday
while the EC holds in the heat another day. Later periods in the
forecast certainly reflect probabilistic chances for precipitation
and generally focus chances on the west and north where
perturbations in the flow have greater chances for influence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Will be
monitoring a weak front in north central KS as it may develop a few
thunderstorms with a small chance of impacting MHK...mainly
between 02Z and 07Z. TS seems unlikely at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211804
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Thunderstorms again not far from the local area and could skirt the
northwestern counties over the next few hours. This appears the
result of better moisture and moisture convergence via the low level
jet, with with southwest low-mid level flow likely keeping this
focused to the north. Some gustiness in surface winds has been
common overnight due to the stronger jet, helping keep temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Will keep small mention of precipitation very early in the far north
as decreasing mass flow occurs from the nocturnal jet mixing out
through the mid morning. Models are very similar with 850mb temps
rising another 1-2C with mixing well through this layer bringing
highs up in kind. Dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s to around
70 and bring apparent temps into the 101 to 105 range, but
confidence in the higher levels being widespread or more than brief
is too low for a Heat Advisory. For tonight, the low level jet,
though weaker, looks to be displaced a bit farther southeast, with
deep layer moisture increasing from the southwest. Setup doesn`t
appear as strong as that seen to the northwest this morning, but
small thunder chances seem in order for mainly northern and central
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Friday and through the weekend the heat continues, as upper ridge
remains solid to the east of the forecast area and noses northward
into the Great Lakes through this period. Shortwave lifts
northeast out of the desert southwest through the western
periphery of the upper high and into the northern plains by early
Sunday, bringing periodic chances for rain along our northern and
western borders. Eastern areas remain capped as influence of upper
ridge prevails. High temperatures may cool along the north if
clouds or rain chances can materialize, but mid to upper 90s
continue in the eastern counties. Heat indicies Friday near
100-105 and come down just a few degrees each day over the
weekend.

GFS and EC both lift leading shortwave trof into the northern
plains by late weekend. While both then lift the larger eastern
lobe of the upper trof into southern Canada, the EC is then deeper
and stronger with the next piece of energy to move into the back
side of the longwave trof over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is
weaker and more progressive, and swings the trof across the plains
by the end of the forecast period Wednesday. The EC retrogrades
the energy, which boosts the upper high back northward into the
Central Plains. Mondays forecast would be influenced by how far
south the surface front can be pushed before southwesterly flow
aloft aids in pushing the front back northward. Unfortunately both
solutions would suggest even if Monday brings a cooler shot and a
chance for precipitation, that this push on Tuesday would make
short work of bringing the warm temperatures back north for
Tuesday. Progressive GFS would bring front through on Wednesday
while the EC holds in the heat another day. Later periods in the
forecast certainly reflect probabilistic chances for precipitation
and generally focus chances on the west and north where
perturbations in the flow have greater chances for influence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Will be
monitoring a weak front in north central KS as it may develop a few
thunderstorms with a small chance of impacting MHK...mainly
between 02Z and 07Z. TS seems unlikely at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211804
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Thunderstorms again not far from the local area and could skirt the
northwestern counties over the next few hours. This appears the
result of better moisture and moisture convergence via the low level
jet, with with southwest low-mid level flow likely keeping this
focused to the north. Some gustiness in surface winds has been
common overnight due to the stronger jet, helping keep temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Will keep small mention of precipitation very early in the far north
as decreasing mass flow occurs from the nocturnal jet mixing out
through the mid morning. Models are very similar with 850mb temps
rising another 1-2C with mixing well through this layer bringing
highs up in kind. Dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s to around
70 and bring apparent temps into the 101 to 105 range, but
confidence in the higher levels being widespread or more than brief
is too low for a Heat Advisory. For tonight, the low level jet,
though weaker, looks to be displaced a bit farther southeast, with
deep layer moisture increasing from the southwest. Setup doesn`t
appear as strong as that seen to the northwest this morning, but
small thunder chances seem in order for mainly northern and central
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Friday and through the weekend the heat continues, as upper ridge
remains solid to the east of the forecast area and noses northward
into the Great Lakes through this period. Shortwave lifts
northeast out of the desert southwest through the western
periphery of the upper high and into the northern plains by early
Sunday, bringing periodic chances for rain along our northern and
western borders. Eastern areas remain capped as influence of upper
ridge prevails. High temperatures may cool along the north if
clouds or rain chances can materialize, but mid to upper 90s
continue in the eastern counties. Heat indicies Friday near
100-105 and come down just a few degrees each day over the
weekend.

GFS and EC both lift leading shortwave trof into the northern
plains by late weekend. While both then lift the larger eastern
lobe of the upper trof into southern Canada, the EC is then deeper
and stronger with the next piece of energy to move into the back
side of the longwave trof over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is
weaker and more progressive, and swings the trof across the plains
by the end of the forecast period Wednesday. The EC retrogrades
the energy, which boosts the upper high back northward into the
Central Plains. Mondays forecast would be influenced by how far
south the surface front can be pushed before southwesterly flow
aloft aids in pushing the front back northward. Unfortunately both
solutions would suggest even if Monday brings a cooler shot and a
chance for precipitation, that this push on Tuesday would make
short work of bringing the warm temperatures back north for
Tuesday. Progressive GFS would bring front through on Wednesday
while the EC holds in the heat another day. Later periods in the
forecast certainly reflect probabilistic chances for precipitation
and generally focus chances on the west and north where
perturbations in the flow have greater chances for influence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Will be
monitoring a weak front in north central KS as it may develop a few
thunderstorms with a small chance of impacting MHK...mainly
between 02Z and 07Z. TS seems unlikely at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 211804
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
104 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Thunderstorms again not far from the local area and could skirt the
northwestern counties over the next few hours. This appears the
result of better moisture and moisture convergence via the low level
jet, with with southwest low-mid level flow likely keeping this
focused to the north. Some gustiness in surface winds has been
common overnight due to the stronger jet, helping keep temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

Will keep small mention of precipitation very early in the far north
as decreasing mass flow occurs from the nocturnal jet mixing out
through the mid morning. Models are very similar with 850mb temps
rising another 1-2C with mixing well through this layer bringing
highs up in kind. Dewpoints should remain in the mid 60s to around
70 and bring apparent temps into the 101 to 105 range, but
confidence in the higher levels being widespread or more than brief
is too low for a Heat Advisory. For tonight, the low level jet,
though weaker, looks to be displaced a bit farther southeast, with
deep layer moisture increasing from the southwest. Setup doesn`t
appear as strong as that seen to the northwest this morning, but
small thunder chances seem in order for mainly northern and central
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Friday and through the weekend the heat continues, as upper ridge
remains solid to the east of the forecast area and noses northward
into the Great Lakes through this period. Shortwave lifts
northeast out of the desert southwest through the western
periphery of the upper high and into the northern plains by early
Sunday, bringing periodic chances for rain along our northern and
western borders. Eastern areas remain capped as influence of upper
ridge prevails. High temperatures may cool along the north if
clouds or rain chances can materialize, but mid to upper 90s
continue in the eastern counties. Heat indicies Friday near
100-105 and come down just a few degrees each day over the
weekend.

GFS and EC both lift leading shortwave trof into the northern
plains by late weekend. While both then lift the larger eastern
lobe of the upper trof into southern Canada, the EC is then deeper
and stronger with the next piece of energy to move into the back
side of the longwave trof over the Pacific Northwest. The GFS is
weaker and more progressive, and swings the trof across the plains
by the end of the forecast period Wednesday. The EC retrogrades
the energy, which boosts the upper high back northward into the
Central Plains. Mondays forecast would be influenced by how far
south the surface front can be pushed before southwesterly flow
aloft aids in pushing the front back northward. Unfortunately both
solutions would suggest even if Monday brings a cooler shot and a
chance for precipitation, that this push on Tuesday would make
short work of bringing the warm temperatures back north for
Tuesday. Progressive GFS would bring front through on Wednesday
while the EC holds in the heat another day. Later periods in the
forecast certainly reflect probabilistic chances for precipitation
and generally focus chances on the west and north where
perturbations in the flow have greater chances for influence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Will be
monitoring a weak front in north central KS as it may develop a few
thunderstorms with a small chance of impacting MHK...mainly
between 02Z and 07Z. TS seems unlikely at this point though.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

An upper level low will continue to slowly move eastward today
through tonight with a large upper level high centered over the
southeast United States. Mid levels of the atmosphere become more
saturated as today progresses with increased cloudiness expected
this evening into the overnight period. A trough of low pressure
will be observed at the surface, extending from northwest Kansas
back into southeast Colorado. Meanwhile, a dome of high pressure
will be located across the southeast United States. These features
will allow south to southwest winds to be felt today through tonight
with breezy conditions likely this afternoon as the atmosphere
mixes. During peak heating, a few thunderstorms may form ahead of
the aforementioned trough. Severe storms are not expected, but with
such a wide T/Td separation, a few storms may be capable of
producing strong winds up to 55 mph. Any storms that do form should
move eastward this evening then move out of or dissipate by or
around midnight. Highs today are forecasted to reach into the mid to
upper 90s with around 100 degrees across the KS/OK border. Lows
tonight are expected to range from the upper 60s across the KS/CO
border to the mid 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A southwesterly flow will persist across the Central Plains
through the weekend period into early next week as an upper ridge
axis remains nearly stationary from the lower Mississippi Valley
to the Western Great Lakes Region. All the models are in decent
agreement with an upper low, located just off the coast of
southern California at 00z Thursday, weakening as it approaches
the central Rockies late week and early this weekend. Cloud cover
and precipitation chances will improve as tropical moisture
increases ahead of this approaching upper level system so will
retain higher chances across west central and north central Kansas
Friday night given the timing of this weakening upper system and
location of a surface boundary. Precipitation chances will then
continue from late this weekend through early next week as another
upper level trough approaches the area from the west and a cold
front drops south into western Kansas.

Temperatures around 100 degree on Friday still looks on track
based on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends from the ECMWF,
NAM, and GFS. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the
weekend period given the increase in tropical moisture and
slightly cooler temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z
Sunday and 00z Monday. Temperatures will fall back to more
seasonal levels early next week as the cold front moves south into
portions of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  73  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  98  71  98  70 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  97  70  97  70 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  99  72  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
HYS 100  73  99  73 /  20  20  20  30
P28 100  76 100  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 211702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

An upper level low will continue to slowly move eastward today
through tonight with a large upper level high centered over the
southeast United States. Mid levels of the atmosphere become more
saturated as today progresses with increased cloudiness expected
this evening into the overnight period. A trough of low pressure
will be observed at the surface, extending from northwest Kansas
back into southeast Colorado. Meanwhile, a dome of high pressure
will be located across the southeast United States. These features
will allow south to southwest winds to be felt today through tonight
with breezy conditions likely this afternoon as the atmosphere
mixes. During peak heating, a few thunderstorms may form ahead of
the aforementioned trough. Severe storms are not expected, but with
such a wide T/Td separation, a few storms may be capable of
producing strong winds up to 55 mph. Any storms that do form should
move eastward this evening then move out of or dissipate by or
around midnight. Highs today are forecasted to reach into the mid to
upper 90s with around 100 degrees across the KS/OK border. Lows
tonight are expected to range from the upper 60s across the KS/CO
border to the mid 70s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A southwesterly flow will persist across the Central Plains
through the weekend period into early next week as an upper ridge
axis remains nearly stationary from the lower Mississippi Valley
to the Western Great Lakes Region. All the models are in decent
agreement with an upper low, located just off the coast of
southern California at 00z Thursday, weakening as it approaches
the central Rockies late week and early this weekend. Cloud cover
and precipitation chances will improve as tropical moisture
increases ahead of this approaching upper level system so will
retain higher chances across west central and north central Kansas
Friday night given the timing of this weakening upper system and
location of a surface boundary. Precipitation chances will then
continue from late this weekend through early next week as another
upper level trough approaches the area from the west and a cold
front drops south into western Kansas.

Temperatures around 100 degree on Friday still looks on track
based on the 850mb to 700mb temperature trends from the ECMWF,
NAM, and GFS. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the
weekend period given the increase in tropical moisture and
slightly cooler temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb level at 00z
Sunday and 00z Monday. Temperatures will fall back to more
seasonal levels early next week as the cold front moves south into
portions of western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

Flight conditions will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.  A
surface trough was edging east through western Kansas, and may
trigger a few late day thunderstorms. The chance at any one TAF
site is very small, and thus thunderstorms will not be included
into the forecasts.  Winds will blow from the southwest at 13g21kt
this afternoon, and drop to the south at around 10 kts after 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  99  73  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  98  71  98  70 /  20  20  20  30
EHA  97  70  97  70 /  20  20  20  30
LBL  99  72  99  73 /  20  20  20  20
HYS 100  73  99  73 /  20  20  20  30
P28 100  76 100  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burke






000
FXUS63 KGLD 211205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
605 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND SHARPENS AS A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE LAGER
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS EFFECTIVELY
KEEPS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE STRONGER WAVES
LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. A SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SECONDARY LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALSO EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BRINGS MOIST MONSOONAL AIR INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. TEMPS MAY
NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
POPS FOR SUNDAY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO COULD PRODUCE SOME OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS SOMEWHAT COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LOWS NEAR 60.

MONDAY...ANY CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND DUE TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR STORMS TO
WORK WITH...BUT A DRY LAYER BELOW 600MB WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO JUST
SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. HIGHS WARM UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOW 90S DUE TO THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
THROUGHOUT NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
SWING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. AT PRESENT TIME...GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WET SOLUTION. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. CANADIAN SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS BUT SIMILAR ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO SUPPORT KEEPING 50+ POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS DURING
THE DAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 211205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
605 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND SHARPENS AS A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT
ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE LAGER
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS EFFECTIVELY
KEEPS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE STRONGER WAVES
LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. A SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SECONDARY LOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALSO EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BRINGS MOIST MONSOONAL AIR INTO
THE REGION AS WELL AS NUMBER OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. TEMPS MAY
NOT BE AS COOL AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
POPS FOR SUNDAY SINCE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...A MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS COLORADO COULD PRODUCE SOME OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHS SOMEWHAT COOLER...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
LOWS NEAR 60.

MONDAY...ANY CONVECTION ONGOING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND DUE TO MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE WITH NEARLY 1000 J/KG MUCAPE FOR STORMS TO
WORK WITH...BUT A DRY LAYER BELOW 600MB WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO JUST
SOME GUSTY SHOWERS. HIGHS WARM UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE LOW 90S DUE TO THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
THROUGHOUT NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO LATE TUESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
SWING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. AT PRESENT TIME...GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WET SOLUTION. ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER...KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. CANADIAN SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS BUT SIMILAR ENOUGH THIS FAR OUT TO SUPPORT KEEPING 50+ POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS DURING
THE DAY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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