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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280930
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Upper level high pressure centered over southern Utah early this
morning with low pressure moving south into the Great Lakes. The
upper high is forecast to gradually slide southeast into New Mexico
tomorrow then into west Texas Thursday.

Weather disturbances (per 700-500mb humidity) and associated
showers/thunderstorms are forecast to move in from the north-
northeast late this evening and continue overnight. Drier air aloft
moves in during the day Wednesday with little if any precipitation
expected. Depending on what model you believe we may see some
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night before tapering off after
midnight. For Thursday through Thursday night precipitation chances
increase as a more significant system moves southeast across much of
the area. The models arent handling each weather disturbance very
well thus timing and precipitation amounts vary.

High temperatures today in the low 90s. Low temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s. For Wednesday afternoon am expecting high
temperatures to range from the mid 80s to around 90 along the KS/NE
border as well as Norton and Hill City areas with low to mid 90s
elsewhere. Low temperatures again in the upper 50s to low 60s. For
Thursday noticeably cooler with afternoon temperatures in the mid
70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS, for the most part, has been
consistent via the model runs over the past 3-4 days; with a ridge
in the west, trough in the east and a trough starting to push into
the Pacific Northwest. It was mentioned yesterday that by Friday the
500 mb flow was going to start shifting to a more west northwest
flow, and this has held true again in the newest model runs (the
European has a more zonal flow though compared to the GFS). This is
due to the trough in the eastern CONUS becoming less amplified and
moving more northeast and allowing the ridge to shift south. Due to
this shift and upper level flow having a more westerly component,
the model runs are now showing the higher chances for storms to be
to the south of the CWA on Friday and Saturday. Yet, this does not
mean the region will not get rain and storms, just the greatest
instability and lift are to the south. Sunday and Monday look to be
drier than the other days in the extended but Monday specifically
has less of a chance for precipitation than Sunday. This is due to
the ridge shifting again and engulfing the CWA. Overall, precip
chances are still possible every day but start to diminish in the
latter half of the extended. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s
Friday before they begin to increase back into the 90s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

KGLD...vfr conditions expected through the period. Will have to
watch for an isolated storm around taf issuance as a cell is
moving through KIML heading toward KGLD. Otherwise should see
quite a bit of sunshine with winds becoming east-southeast then
southeast at 10kts or less. Thunderstorm probabilities increase
after about 00z and peak in the 03z-09z timeframe before
decreasing. Severe weather and heavy rainfall possible which could
produce mvfr cigs and/or visibilities. Winds remain from the
southeast around 10kts but could see some higher gusts around 00z.

KMCK...vfr conditions expected through the period. Similar to KGLD
should see quite a bit of sunshine with winds from the southeast
near 10kts. Thunderstorm probabilities increase after about 22z
and peak in the 02z-07z timeframe. Severe weather and heavy
rainfall possible which could produce mvfr cigs and/or
visibilities.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...99



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000
FXUS63 KDDC 280826
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
326 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The northwest flow pattern is underway, and along with it a
challenging forecast. At the time of this writing at 0800 UTC, there
were two small MCSs, one across far eastern Colorado and adjacent
far western KS with a second one across far north central KS. It
looks like a majority of the southwest KS region will avoid both of
these MCSs as they track almost due south. The exception will be the
western six counties were some rainfall of around a quarter inch can
be expected with some locally higher amounts through the mid-morning
hours before the MCS weakens. Some of the hourly HRRR runs want to
merge the two MCSs, so that will have to be watched later in the
morning, but right now that doesn`t seem to be happening, so we will
be keeping POPs fairly low with the exception of far southwest and
west central KS.

It is unclear exactly how convection will evolve late this afternoon
through tonight. We could see a repeat of yesterday, except starting
off a bit farther north in Nebraska. A mature MCS never really
materialized last night like was forecast, however that does not
mean that one large, cohernet, long-lived MCS won`t happen tonight.
Signals are certainly there in both the high resolution convective
allowing models and lower resolution models. The NAM12 is
particularly bullish, showing a significant QPF signal rolling SSE
from western Nebraska into southwest KS by 12z Wednesday. Both the
NCEP WRF-ARW and WRF-NMMB show something coherent rolling across the
same generally area before decaying around or shortly after 09z
Wednesday. In the official forecast, we will have 40-50 POPs going
mainly east and north of a Dighton-Dodge-Greensburg-Pratt line with
greatest confidence and QPF forecast values up along the I-70
corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The active northwest flow pattern will continue through the end of
the week. A couple of things that will probably act to enhance
precipitation coverage and intensity later in the week will be 1) a
fairly decent surface front which will slow down and perhaps become
quasi-stationary across southern Kansas and 2) some minor mid level
perturbations/enhanced mid level moisture rotating around weak
ridging, thanks to abundance of mountain convection across the
southern Rockies. POPs in the Long Term will be highest Thursday
Night through Saturday Night with 12-hr POPs every period in the 40-
60 percent territory somewhere across our forecast area from west
central KS through south central KS. It still looks as though some
areas will see potentially excessive rainfall once the polar front
gets down here, given all the moisture that will be around and the
generally weak mid-upper level flow leading to slow-moving
convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Will be playing the TAFs fairly conservatively given the fact that
it is difficult to latch on to any coherent convective signal for
much of the forecast period. That said, the near term HRRR
solution does suggest a small thunderstorm cluster moving south
from the Goodland area, clipping the GCK area overnight, so we
will include a 3 hour period of VCTS at that terminal, but
elsewhere (DDC and HYS) we will keep the TAFs free of convection
until there is something concrete to latch onto. A rather large
MCS may drive south late tomorrow evening affecting much of
western Kansas, but since this is at the very end of this forecast
cycle, we will not introduce the threat into the TAF yet.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  90  66 /  20  40  20  30
GCK  89  66  91  66 /  20  30  20  20
EHA  90  67  94  66 /  40  20  20  30
LBL  91  67  94  67 /  30  20  20  30
HYS  87  66  86  65 /  20  50  40  40
P28  90  68  90  69 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Elevated storms have developed from along a northwest to southeast
line as an outflow boundary has moved through. This corridor is
where the first storm of the day moved that produced heavy
rainfall, so the abundant low level moisture may have helped
trigger these storms. Models are indicating elevated storms will
continue over the southwest part of the area overnight where the
short wave trough will move through, which is further west than
the earlier model runs indicated. A second area of storm activity
is still possible over the eastern third of the area, but this
does not look as promising as earlier. The strong to possibly
severe storms overnight in the southwest part of the area will
decline around sunrise but may persist into the morning.

UPDATE Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Adjusted forecast for tonight based on latest data and radar
trends. The first round of severe weather has exited the area with
another round about to move in from the north. This second round
will move south through the area during the evening hours. Am
expecting storm activity to be more isolated behind the group of
storms entering the area from the north, with storm activity
moving south of the area during the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonight`s convection and 700 mb ridging
on top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonight`s scenario
works out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of
fog.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS, for the most part, has been
consistent via the model runs over the past 3-4 days; with a ridge
in the west, trough in the east and a trough starting to push into
the Pacific Northwest. It was mentioned yesterday that by Friday the
500 mb flow was going to start shifting to a more west northwest
flow, and this has held true again in the newest model runs (the
European has a more zonal flow though compared to the GFS). This is
due to the trough in the eastern CONUS becoming less amplified and
moving more northeast and allowing the ridge to shift south. Due to
this shift and upper level flow having a more westerly component,
the model runs are now showing the higher chances for storms to be
to the south of the CWA on Friday and Saturday. Yet, this does not
mean the region will not get rain and storms, just the greatest
instability and lift are to the south. Sunday and Monday look to be
drier than the other days in the extended but Monday specifically
has less of a chance for precipitation than Sunday. This is due to
the ridge shifting again and engulfing the CWA. Overall, precip
chances are still possible every day but start to diminish in the
latter half of the extended. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s
Friday before they begin to increase back into the 90s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. A line of t-storms has
developed over KGLD triggered by the outflow from previous storms
earlier in the evening. The line of storms should not last too
long as more stable air moves over KGLD. KMCK may have some storms
around 9z...but this storm coverage should be isolated so will not
place a mention in the TAF. Around 12z light fog may develop
especially at KGLD since more than one round of rainfall has moved
through the site. Model data has continued to trend up with the
visibility for the early morning so will not put a mention of fog
in the TAF.

During the evening strong to severe storms will be possible for
both sites. However KGLD will be west of most of the storm
activity.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Elevated storms have developed from along a northwest to southeast
line as an outflow boundary has moved through. This corridor is
where the first storm of the day moved that produced heavy
rainfall, so the abundant low level moisture may have helped
trigger these storms. Models are indicating elevated storms will
continue over the southwest part of the area overnight where the
short wave trough will move through, which is further west than
the earlier model runs indicated. A second area of storm activity
is still possible over the eastern third of the area, but this
does not look as promising as earlier. The strong to possibly
severe storms overnight in the southwest part of the area will
decline around sunrise but may persist into the morning.

UPDATE Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Adjusted forecast for tonight based on latest data and radar
trends. The first round of severe weather has exited the area with
another round about to move in from the north. This second round
will move south through the area during the evening hours. Am
expecting storm activity to be more isolated behind the group of
storms entering the area from the north, with storm activity
moving south of the area during the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonight`s convection and 700 mb ridging
on top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonight`s scenario
works out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of
fog.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS, for the most part, has been
consistent via the model runs over the past 3-4 days; with a ridge
in the west, trough in the east and a trough starting to push into
the Pacific Northwest. It was mentioned yesterday that by Friday the
500 mb flow was going to start shifting to a more west northwest
flow, and this has held true again in the newest model runs (the
European has a more zonal flow though compared to the GFS). This is
due to the trough in the eastern CONUS becoming less amplified and
moving more northeast and allowing the ridge to shift south. Due to
this shift and upper level flow having a more westerly component,
the model runs are now showing the higher chances for storms to be
to the south of the CWA on Friday and Saturday. Yet, this does not
mean the region will not get rain and storms, just the greatest
instability and lift are to the south. Sunday and Monday look to be
drier than the other days in the extended but Monday specifically
has less of a chance for precipitation than Sunday. This is due to
the ridge shifting again and engulfing the CWA. Overall, precip
chances are still possible every day but start to diminish in the
latter half of the extended. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s
Friday before they begin to increase back into the 90s on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. A line of t-storms has
developed over KGLD triggered by the outflow from previous storms
earlier in the evening. The line of storms should not last too
long as more stable air moves over KGLD. KMCK may have some storms
around 9z...but this storm coverage should be isolated so will not
place a mention in the TAF. Around 12z light fog may develop
especially at KGLD since more than one round of rainfall has moved
through the site. Model data has continued to trend up with the
visibility for the early morning so will not put a mention of fog
in the TAF.

During the evening strong to severe storms will be possible for
both sites. However KGLD will be west of most of the storm
activity.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL



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000
FXUS63 KICT 280728
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
228 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

In the upper levels, ridging is centered over the four corners
region with a shortwave diving southeast over the western Great
Lakes. At the surface, high pressure is situated over ND/northern
MN with a loose cold front stretching across northern MO into
northern KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Just like last night, have low confidence in what is forcing
convection over northern KS as elevated parcels remain uncapped.
Best guess is that a weak upper impulse, convectively induced or
not, is what sparked off storms over far northern KS/southern
Nebraska. Will continue to monitor trends too see if this small
complex holds together, as we may need to increase pops over
central KS this morning.

Outside of this morning activity, should see a setup fairly
similar to what played out Mon, with the high Plains of
KS/Nebraska seeing the bulk of the daytime convection. These
storms should track southeast overnight and possibly a bit further
east compared to Mon evenings storms due to the better moisture
transport being pushed slightly east. Will keep with the overall
theme of keeping the highest storm chances along and especially
west of I-135. Feel that best the chance for storms Wed looks to
be Wed morning as the overnight storms continue to push southeast.

Northwest flow will remain over the Plains for Wed through Thu
night. There is a good signal that another round of elevated
convection will develop Wed night in an area of strong isentropic
lift in the 310-315k layer. 700mb temps also show a fairly tight
gradient through the forecast area with some warm advection over
this baroclinic zone.

For Thu into Thu night, there is good model agreement in a cold
front sliding down into the central Plains with this feature
stretching from northern MO into SW KS by 00z Fri. At the same
time, models also agree on some upper energy lifting out of the
desert sw and across the area for Fri into Fri night. The
combination of the front and a series of weak impulses will keep
decent storm chances in for Thu night through Fri night with
the southern half of KS looking to have the better chances.

Temps will finally start to cool to closer to or just below
seasonal normals. Most of the area should see 80s for highs for
Thu with much cooler air moving down across the region for Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Will keep fairly high storm chances in for Sat as the zonal
pattern remains active with models showing additional pieces of
energy lifting out of the four corners region. In addition, the
weak surface boundary looks to remain over the area through Sun
morning. There looks to be some agreement in the medium range
models in some weak upper ridging over the central/southern
Plains for Sun night into Mon, which should push the better precip
chances east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR will prevail through the night although a rogue storm or two
may impact locations along and west of I-35. Light and variable
winds will become light and easterly on Tuesday with higher
probabilities for storms arriving late Tuesday night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  90  68  86 /  20  10  20  20
Hutchinson      68  88  67  87 /  20  10  30  30
Newton          69  89  67  86 /  20  10  20  20
ElDorado        69  89  68  86 /  20  10  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   71  90  69  88 /  20  10  10  20
Russell         67  89  66  85 /  20  20  50  50
Great Bend      67  89  66  86 /  20  20  50  40
Salina          69  90  66  85 /  20  10  40  30
McPherson       68  88  66  86 /  20  10  30  30
Coffeyville     69  90  68  89 /  10  10  10  20
Chanute         69  90  67  87 /  10  10  10  20
Iola            69  89  66  86 /  10  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    69  89  68  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280533
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1133 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Elevated storms have developed from along a northwest to southeast
line as an outflow boundary has moved through. This corridor is
where the first storm of the day moved that produced heavy
rainfall, so the abundant low level moisture may have helped
trigger these storms. Models are indicating elevated storms will
continue over the southwest part of the area overnight where the
short wave trough will move through, which is further west than
the earlier model runs indicated. A second area of storm activity
is still possible over the eastern third of the area, but this
does not look as promising as earlier. The strong to possibly
severe storms overnight in the southwest part of the area will
decline around sunrise but may persist into the morning.

UPDATE Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Adjusted forecast for tonight based on latest data and radar
trends. The first round of severe weather has exited the area with
another round about to move in from the north. This second round
will move south through the area during the evening hours. Am
expecting storm activity to be more isolated behind the group of
storms entering the area from the north, with storm activity
moving south of the area during the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonight`s convection and 700 mb ridging
on top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonight`s scenario
works out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of
fog.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A fairly typical upper air pattern continues for late June. Upper
high over the four corners area will remain about stationary
through the week with some strengthening through mid-week. The
overall result for the forecast area will be NW-WNW flow with
weak, difficult to time, short wave troughs moving over the
Central High Plains. As a result, pop forecasts are somewhat
generic with higher pops favoring times and locations where model
guidance is more consistent. Better chances for precipitation will
be Tuesday night and again Thursday night into Friday night.
Precip chances are lower at other times but cannot be ruled out
given the favorable flow aloft and lingering mesoscale features.
Over the weekend the upper flow becomes more zonal with continued
chances for scattered thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Wednesday, cooling to the lower 80s Thu-Fri and warming again over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. A line of t-storms has
developed over KGLD triggered by the outflow from previous storms
earlier in the evening. The line of storms should not last too
long as more stable air moves over KGLD. KMCK may have some storms
around 9z...but this storm coverage should be isolated so will not
place a mention in the TAF. Around 12z light fog may develop
especially at KGLD since more than one round of rainfall has moved
through the site. Model data has continued to trend up with the
visibility for the early morning so will not put a mention of fog
in the TAF.

During the evening strong to severe storms will be possible for
both sites. However KGLD will be west of most of the storm
activity.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280520
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main story during the short term is another MCS rolling
across the Kansas prairie. Don`t have high confidence in NWP data, as
each model showing a different solution. Recent radar trends in NW
Kansas are at least showing that the ARW has initialized fairly
well. Will use this as a basis for pops. Watching a severe
thunderstorm in GLD`s CWA. This could impact our area later
tonight. This has the likelihood of being the most severe. Main
threats initially will be large hail, however, as an MCS
develops, a wind threat will likely be the secondary threat. Heavy
rainfall is expected. The ARW shows two rounds of convection...
the current storm in NW Kansas, and then more development tomorrow
morning across the central zones. Low level flow is expected to
become more conducive to sustained MCS inflow, so this solution
may be reasonable. Anyway, wasn`t too cute with pops and
broadbrushed the area since uncertainty is higher.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Another MCS is possible tomorrow as storms round the 500-hPa
ridge. Flow is stronger tomorrow than today, so could see strong
to severe storms impact a larger area. Have the highest pops in
the NE zones, where low level winds are better. Beyond tomorrow,
every period pretty much has pops in it. Again, confidence is low
as far as MCS tracks are concerned, so think the broadbrushed and
fairly high pops are the way to go. The good news is that by the
end of the week, there is a high chance of several locations
seeing several inches of rainfall. In addition, temperatures will
remain in check and fairly pleasant with no 100s expected anytime
soon. The best chance for more widespread thunderstorms is
possible on Friday as PWATs continue to remain high and the
overall synoptic pattern favors a wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Will be playing the TAFs fairly conservatively given the fact that
it is difficult to latch on to any coherent convective signal for
much of the forecast period. That said, the near term HRRR
solution does suggest a small thunderstorm cluster moving south
from the Goodland area, clipping the GCK area overnight, so we
will include a 3 hour period of VCTS at that terminal, but
elsewhere (DDC and HYS) we will keep the TAFs free of convection
until there is something concrete to latch onto. A rather large
MCS may drive south late tomorrow evening affecting much of
western Kansas, but since this is at the very end of this forecast
cycle, we will not introduce the threat into the TAF yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  90  66  87 /  30  40  30  50
GCK  66  91  65  86 /  30  30  30  40
EHA  67  95  65  87 /  20  20  30  50
LBL  67  95  67  89 /  20  20  30  50
HYS  66  87  64  84 /  50  50  40  30
P28  68  89  69  89 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280520
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main story during the short term is another MCS rolling
across the Kansas prairie. Don`t have high confidence in NWP data, as
each model showing a different solution. Recent radar trends in NW
Kansas are at least showing that the ARW has initialized fairly
well. Will use this as a basis for pops. Watching a severe
thunderstorm in GLD`s CWA. This could impact our area later
tonight. This has the likelihood of being the most severe. Main
threats initially will be large hail, however, as an MCS
develops, a wind threat will likely be the secondary threat. Heavy
rainfall is expected. The ARW shows two rounds of convection...
the current storm in NW Kansas, and then more development tomorrow
morning across the central zones. Low level flow is expected to
become more conducive to sustained MCS inflow, so this solution
may be reasonable. Anyway, wasn`t too cute with pops and
broadbrushed the area since uncertainty is higher.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Another MCS is possible tomorrow as storms round the 500-hPa
ridge. Flow is stronger tomorrow than today, so could see strong
to severe storms impact a larger area. Have the highest pops in
the NE zones, where low level winds are better. Beyond tomorrow,
every period pretty much has pops in it. Again, confidence is low
as far as MCS tracks are concerned, so think the broadbrushed and
fairly high pops are the way to go. The good news is that by the
end of the week, there is a high chance of several locations
seeing several inches of rainfall. In addition, temperatures will
remain in check and fairly pleasant with no 100s expected anytime
soon. The best chance for more widespread thunderstorms is
possible on Friday as PWATs continue to remain high and the
overall synoptic pattern favors a wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Will be playing the TAFs fairly conservatively given the fact that
it is difficult to latch on to any coherent convective signal for
much of the forecast period. That said, the near term HRRR
solution does suggest a small thunderstorm cluster moving south
from the Goodland area, clipping the GCK area overnight, so we
will include a 3 hour period of VCTS at that terminal, but
elsewhere (DDC and HYS) we will keep the TAFs free of convection
until there is something concrete to latch onto. A rather large
MCS may drive south late tomorrow evening affecting much of
western Kansas, but since this is at the very end of this forecast
cycle, we will not introduce the threat into the TAF yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  90  66  87 /  30  40  30  50
GCK  66  91  65  86 /  30  30  30  40
EHA  67  95  65  87 /  20  20  30  50
LBL  67  95  67  89 /  20  20  30  50
HYS  66  87  64  84 /  50  50  40  30
P28  68  89  69  89 /  30  40  40  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KICT 280455
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1155 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Weakly capped environment and an unstable airmass will promote
isolated diurnally driven showers/storms late this afternoon into
the early evening hours, especially for areas south of Highway
54/400. This is also where the highest precipitable water (PWat)
axis values around 150 percent of normal are also located.

Next concern will be across NW KS this evening, as a shortwave
currently located over WY dives south-southeast into NW KS.  Expect
some supercell type storms to evolve into some sort of southward
propagating mesoscale convective complex (MCS) of storms late this
evening or overnight.  Expect most of this convection to stay just
to the west of the forecast area, as this system dives south along
the main elevated instability axis expected to be located from KGLD
to KDDC.  Think current SPC day 1 has the right idea with best
instability being across NW KS with the MCS waning as it drops
south. Could see some of the fringe convection possibly affect areas
along a KRSL to Medicine Lodge line, so will keep some low chance
pops for areas west of I-135.

Could see some lingering showers along the western edges of the
forecast area for Tue morning as the southward MCS moves across SW
KS and diminishes.  Lots of uncertainty on convective chances for
the daytime hours of Tue as most of the area will not have any focus
for storms to develop.  So prefer to follow the highest Pwat values
again, with the main PW axis shifting back north into Central KS.
Will keep some silent 14 pops for Tue afternoon, but think
convective chances will be just to the NW of the forecast area.

Next shortwave in the NW flow will drop SE into Srn Neb/Nrn KS for
Tue evening. Think severe convection across SW Neb will again
propagate southeast into Nrn KS for late Tue eve or early Wed
morning possibly a little further east than tonight`s expected MCS.
Current thinking suggests the best instability axis (across our
forecast area) will exist from KRSL to KICT, with propagation
vectors leading to the convection flowing southeast along this axis.
So plan on going with solid chance pops for areas along and just
west of I-135 into Wed morning. Bulk shear looks a lot better (40-50
kts) across the forecast area which would suggest that this MCS may
stay severe further south than tonight`s MCS, with damaging
downburst winds the main concern.  Am a little concerned that SPC`s
day 2 slight risk, may be too far to the NW and would not be
surprised if later updates extend the slight risk into Cen KS as
well.

Could see the showers/storms linger for a good portion of the
morning hours on Wed for most of the forecast area as 850-700h
moisture transport from SW KS veers east into South Central KS. This
will keep remnants of the MCS going into Southern KS for a
good portion of the daytime hours on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The NW flow will gradually shift to more of a zonal flow
pattern by the weekend.  This would suggest that nightly shortwaves
coming off of the Nrn Rockies will continue to drop southeast and
lead to periodic episodes of convective complexes dropping south
from Neb and possibly across the forecast area for late Thu night
and again on Fri Night.  The Thu night chance looks a potential
heavy rainfall producer across most of Srn KS.

With all the shower/storm chances around,  and low level moisture
remaining high, expect temperatures to remain fairly close to normal
at least through Sat.  But the medium range models suggest that as
the ridge flattens out on Sat, warmer temps will begin to move
across the area for the end of the holiday weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR will prevail through the night although a rogue storm or two
may impact locations along and west of I-35. Light and variable
winds will become light and easterly on Tuesday with higher
probabilities for storms arriving late Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  89  68  88 /  20  10  20  40
Hutchinson      68  89  67  87 /  20  10  30  40
Newton          69  89  66  86 /  20  10  30  40
ElDorado        69  89  66  86 /  20  10  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   71  89  68  89 /  20  10  10  40
Russell         67  88  66  86 /  40  20  40  60
Great Bend      67  88  66  87 /  30  20  40  50
Salina          69  88  66  86 /  20  10  40  50
McPherson       68  89  66  86 /  20  10  30  40
Coffeyville     69  89  67  89 /  10  10  10  30
Chanute         69  88  66  85 /  10  10  10  30
Iola            69  88  65  84 /  10  10  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    69  88  66  87 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 280454
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1154 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

A broad upper level trough was located across the upper Great
Lakes and will amplify as it digs southeast across lower MI. The
upper flow will become more northwesterly and a short-wave trough
across eastern WY and will translate southeast across western NE
into central KS by the mid morning hours of Tuesday.

A weak front extend from central IA, southwest into south central
NE, then recurved northwest into the NE PNHDL. There may be enough
surface convergence ahead of the surface front across southeast NE
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop late this
afternoon or early evening. The HRRR model seems to have a handle on
the thunderstorms developing across southwest IA, and shows
thunderstorms developing southwest ahead of the weak surface
boundary, and then moving southeast across much of northeast KS. If
thunderstorms manage to develop across southern NE, they will then
move southeast into the northern counties of the CWA. MLCAPE will be
around 3,000 J/kg and the 0-6 KM effective shear will be 30 KTS.
Therefore, any isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and early
evening across the northern counties of the CWA may be strong to
severe with the primary hazard being large hail and damaging wind
gusts. If thunderstorms do develop along the weak front late this
afternoon and early evening they should weaken and dissipate through
the mid evening hours.

Tonight, The mesoscale models are showing two thunderstorm complexes
developing across the high plains of eastern CO and western NE. Most
numerical models show these thunderstorm complexes moving south-
southeast across western and central KS, remaining just west of the
CWA. However, the NMM and GFS show the northern thunderstorm complex
that develops across the western NE panhandle, moving southeast
across northwest KS into the western counties of the CWA between 12Z
and 15Z TUE. If an MCS manages to develop it may be able to maintain
itself due the sufficient MUCAPE and vertical windshear. An MCS may
bring the threat for damaging wind gusts to north central KS near
sunrise through the mid morning hours of Tuesday.

Tuesday, after the potential for morning thunderstorms across north
central KS, skies will become partly cloudy. It looks dry for the
remainder of the day. Upslope flow across the higher terrain of
northeast CO, eastern WY and the western NE panhandle will cause
scattered thunderstorms to develop and these storms will organize
into an MCS late Tuesday afternoon across the central high plains.
Highs Tuesday afternoon will reach the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

In general, chances for precip remain in the forecast through the
extended period as models continue to show a conditionally
unstable airmass with possible pertibations within the flow.
Although confidence in storms occurring at any give time are below
normal as the forecast should be driven primarily by mesoscale
features, and thunderstorms in one period could affect the next
couple periods.

For Tuesday night through Thursday, the better chances for
thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or Wednesday night as there
continues to be signs for a vort max to move through northwest
flow aloft. However there are timing differences with vort max as
well as with the location of a possible convective system among
the various solutions. Because of this, POPs where kept in the 30
to 50 percent range. Models continue to support temps a little
closer to or below normal temps with highs in the lower and mid
80s and lows in the mid 60s.

For Thursday night through the weekend, the ECMWF and GFS are
showing a little better defined cold front moving into the area
and stalling out across east central or southern KS as the
synoptic pattern becomes a little less amplified and flow aloft
becomes a little more westerly. Since there is not a big change in
airmass with the front pushing through well south of the forecast
area, potential instability remains possible with disturbances
coming off the Rockies. Therefore it is difficult to rule out
precip chances through this period as well. The reenforcement of
surface ridging should keep highs in the lower and mid 80s and
lows in the mid 60s through the weekend.

By next Monday, there are indications for shortwave ridging to
develop over the central plains and the thermal ridge to build
back in from the southwest. With no obvious forcing seen in the
models, have trended POPs into the slight chance and temps should
be warming up again with some lower 90s possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Will continue with VFR forecast. Still appears enough wind and
cloud will keep BR/FG in check. Low probabilities of high-based
precip exist much of this forecast, too low for any inclusion.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272351
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
551 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Adjusted forecast for tonight based on latest data and radar
trends. The first round of severe weather has exited the area with
another round about to move in from the north. This second round
will move south through the area during the evening hours. Am
expecting storm activity to be more isolated behind the group of
storms entering the area from the north, with storm activity
moving south of the area during the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonight`s convection and 700 mb ridging
on top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonight`s scenario
works out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of
fog.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A fairly typical upper air pattern continues for late June. Upper
high over the four corners area will remain about stationary
through the week with some strengthening through mid-week. The
overall result for the forecast area will be NW-WNW flow with
weak, difficult to time, short wave troughs moving over the
Central High Plains. As a result, pop forecasts are somewhat
generic with higher pops favoring times and locations where model
guidance is more consistent. Better chances for precipitation will
be Tuesday night and again Thursday night into Friday night.
Precip chances are lower at other times but cannot be ruled out
given the favorable flow aloft and lingering mesoscale features.
Over the weekend the upper flow becomes more zonal with continued
chances for scattered thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Wednesday, cooling to the lower 80s Thu-Fri and warming again over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the 0z TAFs. Storm activity
will increase this evening from north to south as severe
thunderstorms move into the Tri-State Area. KMCK should be east of
the severe weather activity this evening. Am expecting most of the
storm activity with the line of storms currently near K2V5, with
more isolated activity behind the line. These storms near K2V5
have a history of producing golf ball to baseball size hail with
60 MPH winds. Overnight KGLD may have MVFR ceilings that should
clear out mid morning.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 272346
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

A broad upper level trough was located across the upper Great
Lakes and will amplify as it digs southeast across lower MI. The
upper flow will become more northwesterly and a short-wave trough
across eastern WY and will translate southeast across western NE
into central KS by the mid morning hours of Tuesday.

A weak front extend from central IA, southwest into south central
NE, then recurved northwest into the NE PNHDL. There may be enough
surface convergence ahead of the surface front across southeast NE
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop late this
afternoon or early evening. The HRRR model seems to have a handle on
the thunderstorms developing across southwest IA, and shows
thunderstorms developing southwest ahead of the weak surface
boundary, and then moving southeast across much of northeast KS. If
thunderstorms manage to develop across southern NE, they will then
move southeast into the northern counties of the CWA. MLCAPE will be
around 3,000 J/kg and the 0-6 KM effective shear will be 30 KTS.
Therefore, any isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and early
evening across the northern counties of the CWA may be strong to
severe with the primary hazard being large hail and damaging wind
gusts. If thunderstorms do develop along the weak front late this
afternoon and early evening they should weaken and dissipate through
the mid evening hours.

Tonight, The mesoscale models are showing two thunderstorm complexes
developing across the high plains of eastern CO and western NE. Most
numerical models show these thunderstorm complexes moving south-
southeast across western and central KS, remaining just west of the
CWA. However, the NMM and GFS show the northern thunderstorm complex
that develops across the western NE panhandle, moving southeast
across northwest KS into the western counties of the CWA between 12Z
and 15Z TUE. If an MCS manages to develop it may be able to maintain
itself due the sufficient MUCAPE and vertical windshear. An MCS may
bring the threat for damaging wind gusts to north central KS near
sunrise through the mid morning hours of Tuesday.

Tuesday, after the potential for morning thunderstorms across north
central KS, skies will become partly cloudy. It looks dry for the
remainder of the day. Upslope flow across the higher terrain of
northeast CO, eastern WY and the western NE panhandle will cause
scattered thunderstorms to develop and these storms will organize
into an MCS late Tuesday afternoon across the central high plains.
Highs Tuesday afternoon will reach the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

In general, chances for precip remain in the forecast through the
extended period as models continue to show a conditionally
unstable airmass with possible pertibations within the flow.
Although confidence in storms occurring at any give time are below
normal as the forecast should be driven primarily by mesoscale
features, and thunderstorms in one period could affect the next
couple periods.

For Tuesday night through Thursday, the better chances for
thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or Wednesday night as there
continues to be signs for a vort max to move through northwest
flow aloft. However there are timing differences with vort max as
well as with the location of a possible convective system among
the various solutions. Because of this, POPs where kept in the 30
to 50 percent range. Models continue to support temps a little
closer to or below normal temps with highs in the lower and mid
80s and lows in the mid 60s.

For Thursday night through the weekend, the ECMWF and GFS are
showing a little better defined cold front moving into the area
and stalling out across east central or southern KS as the
synoptic pattern becomes a little less amplified and flow aloft
becomes a little more westerly. Since there is not a big change in
airmass with the front pushing through well south of the forecast
area, potential instability remains possible with disturbances
coming off the Rockies. Therefore it is difficult to rule out
precip chances through this period as well. The reenforcement of
surface ridging should keep highs in the lower and mid 80s and
lows in the mid 60s through the weekend.

By next Monday, there are indications for shortwave ridging to
develop over the central plains and the thermal ridge to build
back in from the southwest. With no obvious forcing seen in the
models, have trended POPs into the slight chance and temps should
be warming up again with some lower 90s possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Outflow boundary from storms initially in SE Nebraska continues
to generate additional convection as it moves south and west
into the area. Will go ahead with VCTS and outflow winds in the
very near term but coverage and persistence of convection has not
been consistent. Will need to watch wind and RH trends for another
period of fog around 12Z but currently appears more cloud and
wind should occur than last night.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 272346
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
646 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

A broad upper level trough was located across the upper Great
Lakes and will amplify as it digs southeast across lower MI. The
upper flow will become more northwesterly and a short-wave trough
across eastern WY and will translate southeast across western NE
into central KS by the mid morning hours of Tuesday.

A weak front extend from central IA, southwest into south central
NE, then recurved northwest into the NE PNHDL. There may be enough
surface convergence ahead of the surface front across southeast NE
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop late this
afternoon or early evening. The HRRR model seems to have a handle on
the thunderstorms developing across southwest IA, and shows
thunderstorms developing southwest ahead of the weak surface
boundary, and then moving southeast across much of northeast KS. If
thunderstorms manage to develop across southern NE, they will then
move southeast into the northern counties of the CWA. MLCAPE will be
around 3,000 J/kg and the 0-6 KM effective shear will be 30 KTS.
Therefore, any isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and early
evening across the northern counties of the CWA may be strong to
severe with the primary hazard being large hail and damaging wind
gusts. If thunderstorms do develop along the weak front late this
afternoon and early evening they should weaken and dissipate through
the mid evening hours.

Tonight, The mesoscale models are showing two thunderstorm complexes
developing across the high plains of eastern CO and western NE. Most
numerical models show these thunderstorm complexes moving south-
southeast across western and central KS, remaining just west of the
CWA. However, the NMM and GFS show the northern thunderstorm complex
that develops across the western NE panhandle, moving southeast
across northwest KS into the western counties of the CWA between 12Z
and 15Z TUE. If an MCS manages to develop it may be able to maintain
itself due the sufficient MUCAPE and vertical windshear. An MCS may
bring the threat for damaging wind gusts to north central KS near
sunrise through the mid morning hours of Tuesday.

Tuesday, after the potential for morning thunderstorms across north
central KS, skies will become partly cloudy. It looks dry for the
remainder of the day. Upslope flow across the higher terrain of
northeast CO, eastern WY and the western NE panhandle will cause
scattered thunderstorms to develop and these storms will organize
into an MCS late Tuesday afternoon across the central high plains.
Highs Tuesday afternoon will reach the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

In general, chances for precip remain in the forecast through the
extended period as models continue to show a conditionally
unstable airmass with possible pertibations within the flow.
Although confidence in storms occurring at any give time are below
normal as the forecast should be driven primarily by mesoscale
features, and thunderstorms in one period could affect the next
couple periods.

For Tuesday night through Thursday, the better chances for
thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or Wednesday night as there
continues to be signs for a vort max to move through northwest
flow aloft. However there are timing differences with vort max as
well as with the location of a possible convective system among
the various solutions. Because of this, POPs where kept in the 30
to 50 percent range. Models continue to support temps a little
closer to or below normal temps with highs in the lower and mid
80s and lows in the mid 60s.

For Thursday night through the weekend, the ECMWF and GFS are
showing a little better defined cold front moving into the area
and stalling out across east central or southern KS as the
synoptic pattern becomes a little less amplified and flow aloft
becomes a little more westerly. Since there is not a big change in
airmass with the front pushing through well south of the forecast
area, potential instability remains possible with disturbances
coming off the Rockies. Therefore it is difficult to rule out
precip chances through this period as well. The reenforcement of
surface ridging should keep highs in the lower and mid 80s and
lows in the mid 60s through the weekend.

By next Monday, there are indications for shortwave ridging to
develop over the central plains and the thermal ridge to build
back in from the southwest. With no obvious forcing seen in the
models, have trended POPs into the slight chance and temps should
be warming up again with some lower 90s possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Outflow boundary from storms initially in SE Nebraska continues
to generate additional convection as it moves south and west
into the area. Will go ahead with VCTS and outflow winds in the
very near term but coverage and persistence of convection has not
been consistent. Will need to watch wind and RH trends for another
period of fog around 12Z but currently appears more cloud and
wind should occur than last night.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KICT 272343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Weakly capped environment and an unstable airmass will promote
isolated diurnally driven showers/storms late this afternoon into
the early evening hours, especially for areas south of Highway
54/400. This is also where the highest precipitable water (PWat)
axis values around 150 percent of normal are also located.

Next concern will be across NW KS this evening, as a shortwave
currently located over WY dives south-southeast into NW KS.  Expect
some supercell type storms to evolve into some sort of southward
propagating mesoscale convective complex (MCS) of storms late this
evening or overnight.  Expect most of this convection to stay just
to the west of the forecast area, as this system dives south along
the main elevated instability axis expected to be located from KGLD
to KDDC.  Think current SPC day 1 has the right idea with best
instability being across NW KS with the MCS waning as it drops
south. Could see some of the fringe convection possibly affect areas
along a KRSL to Medicine Lodge line, so will keep some low chance
pops for areas west of I-135.

Could see some lingering showers along the western edges of the
forecast area for Tue morning as the southward MCS moves across SW
KS and diminishes.  Lots of uncertainty on convective chances for
the daytime hours of Tue as most of the area will not have any focus
for storms to develop.  So prefer to follow the highest Pwat values
again, with the main PW axis shifting back north into Central KS.
Will keep some silent 14 pops for Tue afternoon, but think
convective chances will be just to the NW of the forecast area.

Next shortwave in the NW flow will drop SE into Srn Neb/Nrn KS for
Tue evening. Think severe convection across SW Neb will again
propagate southeast into Nrn KS for late Tue eve or early Wed
morning possibly a little further east than tonight`s expected MCS.
Current thinking suggests the best instability axis (across our
forecast area) will exist from KRSL to KICT, with propagation
vectors leading to the convection flowing southeast along this axis.
So plan on going with solid chance pops for areas along and just
west of I-135 into Wed morning. Bulk shear looks a lot better (40-50
kts) across the forecast area which would suggest that this MCS may
stay severe further south than tonight`s MCS, with damaging
downburst winds the main concern.  Am a little concerned that SPC`s
day 2 slight risk, may be too far to the NW and would not be
surprised if later updates extend the slight risk into Cen KS as
well.

Could see the showers/storms linger for a good portion of the
morning hours on Wed for most of the forecast area as 850-700h
moisture transport from SW KS veers east into South Central KS. This
will keep remnants of the MCS going into Southern KS for a
good portion of the daytime hours on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The NW flow will gradually shift to more of a zonal flow
pattern by the weekend.  This would suggest that nightly shortwaves
coming off of the Nrn Rockies will continue to drop southeast and
lead to periodic episodes of convective complexes dropping south
from Neb and possibly across the forecast area for late Thu night
and again on Fri Night.  The Thu night chance looks a potential
heavy rainfall producer across most of Srn KS.

With all the shower/storm chances around,  and low level moisture
remaining high, expect temperatures to remain fairly close to normal
at least through Sat.  But the medium range models suggest that as
the ridge flattens out on Sat, warmer temps will begin to move
across the area for the end of the holiday weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Light winds and VFR will prevail at most locations through the
period. There is some concern that storms over the High Plains of
Western Kansas could impact portions of Central KS late tonight or
early on Tuesday...however there appears to be better support
further west outside of the forecast area over Western Kansas.
Confidence remains too low to mention in area TAFS overnight.
Scattered-Broken cumulus around 5000 ft agl are expected by late
morning/early afternoon on Tuesday across much of the area and
given a weakly capped airmass we may see some diurnally driven
storms by afternoon although better chances may arrive during the
overnight hours on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  89  68  88 /  20  10  20  40
Hutchinson      68  89  67  87 /  30  10  30  40
Newton          69  89  66  86 /  20  10  30  40
ElDorado        69  89  66  86 /  20  10  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   71  89  68  89 /  20  10  10  40
Russell         67  88  66  86 /  50  20  40  60
Great Bend      67  88  66  87 /  40  20  40  50
Salina          69  88  66  86 /  30  10  40  50
McPherson       68  89  66  86 /  20  10  30  40
Coffeyville     69  89  67  89 /  10  10  10  30
Chanute         69  88  66  85 /  10  10  10  30
Iola            69  88  65  84 /  10  10  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    69  88  66  87 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM




000
FXUS63 KICT 272343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Weakly capped environment and an unstable airmass will promote
isolated diurnally driven showers/storms late this afternoon into
the early evening hours, especially for areas south of Highway
54/400. This is also where the highest precipitable water (PWat)
axis values around 150 percent of normal are also located.

Next concern will be across NW KS this evening, as a shortwave
currently located over WY dives south-southeast into NW KS.  Expect
some supercell type storms to evolve into some sort of southward
propagating mesoscale convective complex (MCS) of storms late this
evening or overnight.  Expect most of this convection to stay just
to the west of the forecast area, as this system dives south along
the main elevated instability axis expected to be located from KGLD
to KDDC.  Think current SPC day 1 has the right idea with best
instability being across NW KS with the MCS waning as it drops
south. Could see some of the fringe convection possibly affect areas
along a KRSL to Medicine Lodge line, so will keep some low chance
pops for areas west of I-135.

Could see some lingering showers along the western edges of the
forecast area for Tue morning as the southward MCS moves across SW
KS and diminishes.  Lots of uncertainty on convective chances for
the daytime hours of Tue as most of the area will not have any focus
for storms to develop.  So prefer to follow the highest Pwat values
again, with the main PW axis shifting back north into Central KS.
Will keep some silent 14 pops for Tue afternoon, but think
convective chances will be just to the NW of the forecast area.

Next shortwave in the NW flow will drop SE into Srn Neb/Nrn KS for
Tue evening. Think severe convection across SW Neb will again
propagate southeast into Nrn KS for late Tue eve or early Wed
morning possibly a little further east than tonight`s expected MCS.
Current thinking suggests the best instability axis (across our
forecast area) will exist from KRSL to KICT, with propagation
vectors leading to the convection flowing southeast along this axis.
So plan on going with solid chance pops for areas along and just
west of I-135 into Wed morning. Bulk shear looks a lot better (40-50
kts) across the forecast area which would suggest that this MCS may
stay severe further south than tonight`s MCS, with damaging
downburst winds the main concern.  Am a little concerned that SPC`s
day 2 slight risk, may be too far to the NW and would not be
surprised if later updates extend the slight risk into Cen KS as
well.

Could see the showers/storms linger for a good portion of the
morning hours on Wed for most of the forecast area as 850-700h
moisture transport from SW KS veers east into South Central KS. This
will keep remnants of the MCS going into Southern KS for a
good portion of the daytime hours on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The NW flow will gradually shift to more of a zonal flow
pattern by the weekend.  This would suggest that nightly shortwaves
coming off of the Nrn Rockies will continue to drop southeast and
lead to periodic episodes of convective complexes dropping south
from Neb and possibly across the forecast area for late Thu night
and again on Fri Night.  The Thu night chance looks a potential
heavy rainfall producer across most of Srn KS.

With all the shower/storm chances around,  and low level moisture
remaining high, expect temperatures to remain fairly close to normal
at least through Sat.  But the medium range models suggest that as
the ridge flattens out on Sat, warmer temps will begin to move
across the area for the end of the holiday weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Light winds and VFR will prevail at most locations through the
period. There is some concern that storms over the High Plains of
Western Kansas could impact portions of Central KS late tonight or
early on Tuesday...however there appears to be better support
further west outside of the forecast area over Western Kansas.
Confidence remains too low to mention in area TAFS overnight.
Scattered-Broken cumulus around 5000 ft agl are expected by late
morning/early afternoon on Tuesday across much of the area and
given a weakly capped airmass we may see some diurnally driven
storms by afternoon although better chances may arrive during the
overnight hours on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  89  68  88 /  20  10  20  40
Hutchinson      68  89  67  87 /  30  10  30  40
Newton          69  89  66  86 /  20  10  30  40
ElDorado        69  89  66  86 /  20  10  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   71  89  68  89 /  20  10  10  40
Russell         67  88  66  86 /  50  20  40  60
Great Bend      67  88  66  87 /  40  20  40  50
Salina          69  88  66  86 /  30  10  40  50
McPherson       68  89  66  86 /  20  10  30  40
Coffeyville     69  89  67  89 /  10  10  10  30
Chanute         69  88  66  85 /  10  10  10  30
Iola            69  88  65  84 /  10  10  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    69  88  66  87 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM




000
FXUS63 KDDC 272308
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main story during the short term is another MCS rolling
across the Kansas prairie. Don`t have high confidence in NWP data, as
each model showing a different solution. Recent radar trends in NW
Kansas are at least showing that the ARW has initialized fairly
well. Will use this as a basis for pops. Watching a severe
thunderstorm in GLD`s CWA. This could impact our area later
tonight. This has the likelihood of being the most severe. Main
threats initially will be large hail, however, as an MCS
develops, a wind threat will likely be the secondary threat. Heavy
rainfall is expected. The ARW shows two rounds of convection...
the current storm in NW Kansas, and then more development tomorrow
morning across the central zones. Low level flow is expected to
become more conducive to sustained MCS inflow, so this solution
may be reasonable. Anyway, wasn`t too cute with pops and
broadbrushed the area since uncertainty is higher.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Another MCS is possible tomorrow as storms round the 500-hPa
ridge. Flow is stronger tomorrow than today, so could see strong
to severe storms impact a larger area. Have the highest pops in
the NE zones, where low level winds are better. Beyond tomorrow,
every period pretty much has pops in it. Again, confidence is low
as far as MCS tracks are concerned, so think the broadbrushed and
fairly high pops are the way to go. The good news is that by the
end of the week, there is a high chance of several locations
seeing several inches of rainfall. In addition, temperatures will
remain in check and fairly pleasant with no 100s expected anytime
soon. The best chance for more widespread thunderstorms is
possible on Friday as PWATs continue to remain high and the
overall synoptic pattern favors a wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to impact the terminals at Garden
City and Dodge City, and to a lesser extent, Hays mainly through the
first 6 hours of this forecast period. Cigs and vsbys should remain
VFR. There is some potential for additional thunderstorms toward 12z
but confidence in this is low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  89  67  90 /  60  30  30  40
GCK  66  90  66  91 /  60  20  30  30
EHA  65  91  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  66  92  67  95 /  50  30  20  20
HYS  66  88  66  87 /  60  20  50  50
P28  70  91  68  89 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard




000
FXUS63 KDDC 272308
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main story during the short term is another MCS rolling
across the Kansas prairie. Don`t have high confidence in NWP data, as
each model showing a different solution. Recent radar trends in NW
Kansas are at least showing that the ARW has initialized fairly
well. Will use this as a basis for pops. Watching a severe
thunderstorm in GLD`s CWA. This could impact our area later
tonight. This has the likelihood of being the most severe. Main
threats initially will be large hail, however, as an MCS
develops, a wind threat will likely be the secondary threat. Heavy
rainfall is expected. The ARW shows two rounds of convection...
the current storm in NW Kansas, and then more development tomorrow
morning across the central zones. Low level flow is expected to
become more conducive to sustained MCS inflow, so this solution
may be reasonable. Anyway, wasn`t too cute with pops and
broadbrushed the area since uncertainty is higher.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Another MCS is possible tomorrow as storms round the 500-hPa
ridge. Flow is stronger tomorrow than today, so could see strong
to severe storms impact a larger area. Have the highest pops in
the NE zones, where low level winds are better. Beyond tomorrow,
every period pretty much has pops in it. Again, confidence is low
as far as MCS tracks are concerned, so think the broadbrushed and
fairly high pops are the way to go. The good news is that by the
end of the week, there is a high chance of several locations
seeing several inches of rainfall. In addition, temperatures will
remain in check and fairly pleasant with no 100s expected anytime
soon. The best chance for more widespread thunderstorms is
possible on Friday as PWATs continue to remain high and the
overall synoptic pattern favors a wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to impact the terminals at Garden
City and Dodge City, and to a lesser extent, Hays mainly through the
first 6 hours of this forecast period. Cigs and vsbys should remain
VFR. There is some potential for additional thunderstorms toward 12z
but confidence in this is low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  89  67  90 /  60  30  30  40
GCK  66  90  66  91 /  60  20  30  30
EHA  65  91  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  66  92  67  95 /  50  30  20  20
HYS  66  88  66  87 /  60  20  50  50
P28  70  91  68  89 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard




000
FXUS63 KDDC 272030
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
330 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...updated short and long...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main story during the short term is another MCS rolling
across the Kansas prairie. Don`t have high confidence in NWP data, as
each model showing a different solution. Recent radar trends in NW
Kansas are at least showing that the ARW has initialized fairly
well. Will use this as a basis for pops. Watching a severe
thunderstorm in GLD`s CWA. This could impact our area later
tonight. This has the likelihood of being the most severe. Main
threats initially will be large hail, however, as an MCS
develops, a wind threat will likely be the secondary threat. Heavy
rainfall is expected. The ARW shows two rounds of convection...
the current storm in NW Kansas, and then more development tomorrow
morning across the central zones. Low level flow is expected to
become more conducive to sustained MCS inflow, so this solution
may be reasonable. Anyway, wasn`t too cute with pops and
broadbrushed the area since uncertainty is higher.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Another MCS is possible tomorrow as storms round the 500-hPa
ridge. Flow is stronger tomorrow than today, so could see strong
to severe storms impact a larger area. Have the highest pops in
the NE zones, where low level winds are better. Beyond tomorrow,
every period pretty much has pops in it. Again, confidence is low
as far as MCS tracks are concerned, so think the broadbrushed and
fairly high pops are the way to go. The good news is that by the
end of the week, there is a high chance of several locations
seeing several inches of rainfall. In addition, temperatures will
remain in check and fairly pleasant with no 100s expected anytime
soon. The best chance for more widespread thunderstorms is
possible on Friday as PWATs continue to remain high and the
overall synoptic pattern favors a wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR expected through TAF pd. Latest models keep convection mainly across
far western Kansas. Lower confidence to the east. Will put tempo/cb/tsra
for KGCK tonight. Winds will be SE to S 5-15 kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  89  67  90 /  60  30  30  40
GCK  66  90  66  91 /  60  20  30  30
EHA  65  91  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  66  92  67  95 /  50  30  20  20
HYS  66  88  66  87 /  60  20  50  50
P28  70  91  68  89 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden




000
FXUS63 KDDC 272030
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
330 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...updated short and long...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main story during the short term is another MCS rolling
across the Kansas prairie. Don`t have high confidence in NWP data, as
each model showing a different solution. Recent radar trends in NW
Kansas are at least showing that the ARW has initialized fairly
well. Will use this as a basis for pops. Watching a severe
thunderstorm in GLD`s CWA. This could impact our area later
tonight. This has the likelihood of being the most severe. Main
threats initially will be large hail, however, as an MCS
develops, a wind threat will likely be the secondary threat. Heavy
rainfall is expected. The ARW shows two rounds of convection...
the current storm in NW Kansas, and then more development tomorrow
morning across the central zones. Low level flow is expected to
become more conducive to sustained MCS inflow, so this solution
may be reasonable. Anyway, wasn`t too cute with pops and
broadbrushed the area since uncertainty is higher.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Another MCS is possible tomorrow as storms round the 500-hPa
ridge. Flow is stronger tomorrow than today, so could see strong
to severe storms impact a larger area. Have the highest pops in
the NE zones, where low level winds are better. Beyond tomorrow,
every period pretty much has pops in it. Again, confidence is low
as far as MCS tracks are concerned, so think the broadbrushed and
fairly high pops are the way to go. The good news is that by the
end of the week, there is a high chance of several locations
seeing several inches of rainfall. In addition, temperatures will
remain in check and fairly pleasant with no 100s expected anytime
soon. The best chance for more widespread thunderstorms is
possible on Friday as PWATs continue to remain high and the
overall synoptic pattern favors a wet pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR expected through TAF pd. Latest models keep convection mainly across
far western Kansas. Lower confidence to the east. Will put tempo/cb/tsra
for KGCK tonight. Winds will be SE to S 5-15 kt.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  89  67  90 /  60  30  30  40
GCK  66  90  66  91 /  60  20  30  30
EHA  65  91  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
LBL  66  92  67  95 /  50  30  20  20
HYS  66  88  66  87 /  60  20  50  50
P28  70  91  68  89 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272025
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonight`s convection and 700 mb ridging
on top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonight`s scenario
works out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of
fog.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A fairly typical upper air pattern continues for late June. Upper
high over the four corners area will remain about stationary
through the week with some strengthening through mid-week. The
overall result for the forecast area will be NW-WNW flow with
weak, difficult to time, short wave troughs moving over the
Central High Plains. As a result, pop forecasts are somewhat
generic with higher pops favoring times and locations where model
guidance is more consistent. Better chances for precipitation will
be Tuesday night and again Thursday night into Friday night.
Precip chances are lower at other times but cannot be ruled out
given the favorable flow aloft and lingering mesoscale features.
Over the weekend the upper flow becomes more zonal with continued
chances for scattered thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Wednesday, cooling to the lower 80s Thu-Fri and warming again over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Complex forecast due to mesoscale influences from the overnight
convection that most of the model output is not taking into
account. Currently thunderstorms are occurring to the west and
northwest of both sites. For Kgld...am expecting thunderstorms to
begin affecting the site from around 20z to around 03z. Some mvfr
conditions look to occur here. Winds will remain highly variable.

For Kmck...There looks to be two different rounds of thunderstorms
that will affect the area. The first one will be around 21z and
lasting to near 00z. Second round looks to occur from around 04z
to near 08z. Did not feel confident enough to put in mvfr
conditions and just have vfr at this time. The winds will also be
highly variable in nature due to thunderstorm outflow boundaries.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272025
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
225 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonight`s convection and 700 mb ridging
on top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud
cover and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonight`s scenario
works out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of
fog.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 225 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A fairly typical upper air pattern continues for late June. Upper
high over the four corners area will remain about stationary
through the week with some strengthening through mid-week. The
overall result for the forecast area will be NW-WNW flow with
weak, difficult to time, short wave troughs moving over the
Central High Plains. As a result, pop forecasts are somewhat
generic with higher pops favoring times and locations where model
guidance is more consistent. Better chances for precipitation will
be Tuesday night and again Thursday night into Friday night.
Precip chances are lower at other times but cannot be ruled out
given the favorable flow aloft and lingering mesoscale features.
Over the weekend the upper flow becomes more zonal with continued
chances for scattered thunderstorms.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to near 90 on
Wednesday, cooling to the lower 80s Thu-Fri and warming again over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Complex forecast due to mesoscale influences from the overnight
convection that most of the model output is not taking into
account. Currently thunderstorms are occurring to the west and
northwest of both sites. For Kgld...am expecting thunderstorms to
begin affecting the site from around 20z to around 03z. Some mvfr
conditions look to occur here. Winds will remain highly variable.

For Kmck...There looks to be two different rounds of thunderstorms
that will affect the area. The first one will be around 21z and
lasting to near 00z. Second round looks to occur from around 04z
to near 08z. Did not feel confident enough to put in mvfr
conditions and just have vfr at this time. The winds will also be
highly variable in nature due to thunderstorm outflow boundaries.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KICT 272019
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
319 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Weakly capped environment and an unstable airmass will promote
isolated diurnally driven showers/storms late this afternoon into
the early evening hours, especially for areas south of Highway
54/400. This is also where the highest precipitable water (PWat)
axis values around 150 percent of normal are also located.

Next concern will be across NW KS this evening, as a shortwave
currently located over WY dives south-southeast into NW KS.  Expect
some supercell type storms to evolve into some sort of southward
propagating mesoscale convective complex (MCS) of storms late this
evening or overnight.  Expect most of this convection to stay just
to the west of the forecast area, as this system dives south along
the main elevated instability axis expected to be located from KGLD
to KDDC.  Think current SPC day 1 has the right idea with best
instability being across NW KS with the MCS waning as it drops
south. Could see some of the fringe convection possibly affect areas
along a KRSL to Medicine Lodge line, so will keep some low chance
pops for areas west of I-135.

Could see some lingering showers along the western edges of the
forecast area for Tue morning as the southward MCS moves across SW
KS and diminishes.  Lots of uncertainty on convective chances for
the daytime hours of Tue as most of the area will not have any focus
for storms to develop.  So prefer to follow the highest Pwat values
again, with the main PW axis shifting back north into Central KS.
Will keep some silent 14 pops for Tue afternoon, but think
convective chances will be just to the NW of the forecast area.

Next shortwave in the NW flow will drop SE into Srn Neb/Nrn KS for
Tue evening. Think severe convection across SW Neb will again
propagate southeast into Nrn KS for late Tue eve or early Wed
morning possibly a little further east than tonight`s expected MCS.
Current thinking suggests the best instability axis (across our
forecast area) will exist from KRSL to KICT, with propagation
vectors leading to the convection flowing southeast along this axis.
So plan on going with solid chance pops for areas along and just
west of I-135 into Wed morning. Bulk shear looks a lot better (40-50
kts) across the forecast area which would suggest that this MCS may
stay severe further south than tonight`s MCS, with damaging
downburst winds the main concern.  Am a little concerned that SPC`s
day 2 slight risk, may be too far to the NW and would not be
surprised if later updates extend the slight risk into Cen KS as
well.

Could see the showers/storms linger for a good portion of the
morning hours on Wed for most of the forecast area as 850-700h
moisture transport from SW KS veers east into South Central KS. This
will keep remnants of the MCS going into Southern KS for a
good portion of the daytime hours on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The NW flow will gradually shift to more of a zonal flow
pattern by the weekend.  This would suggest that nightly shortwaves
coming off of the Nrn Rockies will continue to drop southeast and
lead to periodic episodes of convective complexes dropping south
from Neb and possibly across the forecast area for late Thu night
and again on Fri Night.  The Thu night chance looks a potential
heavy rainfall producer across most of Srn KS.

With all the shower/storm chances around,  and low level moisture
remaining high, expect temperatures to remain fairly close to normal
at least through Sat.  But the medium range models suggest that as
the ridge flattens out on Sat, warmer temps will begin to move
across the area for the end of the holiday weekend.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

While mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail thru the
forecast valid period, MVFR cigs are expected in southeast Kansas
this afternoon with patchy MVFR cigs and VSBYS tonight. Otherwise
isolated late afternoon convection is possible about anywhere in
central and parts of southern Kansas. A more organized area of
convection or MCS is expected to evolve across the high Plains
this evening and move south-southeast across western and perhaps
parts of central Kansas overnight. For now will relegate mention
to VCTS, though KRSL and KGBD stand a little better chance to see
TSRA than further east.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  89  68  88 /  20  10  20  40
Hutchinson      68  89  67  87 /  30  10  30  40
Newton          69  89  66  86 /  20  10  30  40
ElDorado        69  89  66  86 /  20  10  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   71  89  68  89 /  20  10  10  40
Russell         67  88  66  86 /  50  20  40  60
Great Bend      67  88  66  87 /  40  20  40  50
Salina          69  88  66  86 /  30  10  40  50
McPherson       68  89  66  86 /  20  10  30  40
Coffeyville     69  89  67  89 /  10  10  10  30
Chanute         69  88  66  85 /  10  10  10  30
Iola            69  88  65  84 /  10  10  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    69  88  66  87 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...KED




000
FXUS63 KTOP 272009
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

A broad upper level trough was located across the upper Great
Lakes and will amplify as it digs southeast across lower MI. The
upper flow will become more northwesterly and a short-wave trough
across eastern WY and will translate southeast across western NE
into central KS by the mid morning hours of Tuesday.

A weak front extend from central IA, southwest into south central
NE, then recurved northwest into the NE PNHDL. There may be enough
surface convergence ahead of the surface front across southeast NE
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop late this
afternoon or early evening. The HRRR model seems to have a handle on
the thunderstorms developing across southwest IA, and shows
thunderstorms developing southwest ahead of the weak surface
boundary, and then moving southeast across much of northeast KS. If
thunderstorms manage to develop across southern NE, they will then
move southeast into the northern counties of the CWA. MLCAPE will be
around 3,000 J/kg and the 0-6 KM effective shear will be 30 KTS.
Therefore, any isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and early
evening across the northern counties of the CWA may be strong to
severe with the primary hazard being large hail and damaging wind
gusts. If thunderstorms do develop along the weak front late this
afternoon and early evening they should weaken and dissipate through
the mid evening hours.

Tonight, The mesoscale models are showing two thunderstorm complexes
developing across the high plains of eastern CO and western NE. Most
numerical models show these thunderstorm complexes moving south-
southeast across western and central KS, remaining just west of the
CWA. However, the NMM and GFS show the northern thunderstorm complex
that develops across the western NE panhandle, moving southeast
across northwest KS into the western counties of the CWA between 12Z
and 15Z TUE. If an MCS manages to develop it may be able to maintain
itself due the sufficient MUCAPE and vertical windshear. An MCS may
bring the threat for damaging wind gusts to north central KS near
sunrise through the mid morning hours of Tuesday.

Tuesday, after the potential for morning thunderstorms across north
central KS, skies will become partly cloudy. It looks dry for the
remainder of the day. Upslope flow across the higher terrain of
northeast CO, eastern WY and the western NE panhandle will cause
scattered thunderstorms to develop and these storms will organize
into an MCS late Tuesday afternoon across the central high plains.
Highs Tuesday afternoon will reach the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

In general, chances for precip remain in the forecast through the
extended period as models continue to show a conditionally
unstable airmass with possible pertibations within the flow.
Although confidence in storms occurring at any give time are below
normal as the forecast should be driven primarily by mesoscale
features, and thunderstorms in one period could affect the next
couple periods.

For Tuesday night through Thursday, the better chances for
thunderstorms looks to be Wednesday or Wednesday night as there
continues to be signs for a vort max to move through northwest
flow aloft. However there are timing differences with vort max as
well as with the location of a possible convective system among
the various solutions. Because of this, POPs where kept in the 30
to 50 percent range. Models continue to support temps a little
closer to or below normal temps with highs in the lower and mid
80s and lows in the mid 60s.

For Thursday night through the weekend, the ECMWF and GFS are
showing a little better defined cold front moving into the area
and stalling out across east central or southern KS as the
synoptic pattern becomes a little less amplified and flow aloft
becomes a little more westerly. Since there is not a big change in
airmass with the front pushing through well south of the forecast
area, potential instability remains possible with disturbances
coming off the Rockies. Therefore it is difficult to rule out
precip chances through this period as well. The reenforcement of
surface ridging should keep highs in the lower and mid 80s and
lows in the mid 60s through the weekend.

By next Monday, there are indications for shortwave ridging to
develop over the central plains and the thermal ridge to build
back in from the southwest. With no obvious forcing seen in the
models, have trended POPs into the slight chance and temps should
be warming up again with some lower 90s possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Scattered CU will develop at the terminals with bases of 4,000 to
6,000 feet. There may be an thunderstorm around the terminals late
this afternoon or this evening. High clouds from a thunderstorm
complex moving southeast across central KS will probably prevent
ground fog from forming by sunrise. However, if skies remain clear
there could be some patchy dense ground fog around the terminals near
sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272004
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
204 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Currently in a severe thunderstorm watch for most of the area.
Mesoscale boundaries have made this a complicated forecast with
high resolution/convectively allowing models having a hard time
with current scenario. Look to have two different waves of
thunderstorms. Current activity will push south and east and then
another cluster moves in from the north later in the evening.
Activity should decrease in intensity after midnight but will be
around the rest of the night.

Should have lingering thunderstorms in the morning in the far
east. Then the rest of the day should be dry/quiet due to stable
air mass in place after tonights convection and 700 mb ridging on
top of that. Temperatures will be problematic due to cloud cover
and rain cooled air mass. Depending on tonights scenario works
out, night shift will need to look into the possibility of fog.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The upper level pattern has not changed over the weekend, with the
same pattern of a trough over the eastern states and a ridge in the
western states. There is a trough beginning to move into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday and will continue to push east during the
extended period; which will eventually push the ridge east. The CWA
is still between the ridge and trough, which is creating a mid to
upper level northwest flow. That in association with 700 mb
shortwaves and favorable CAPE values, rain and storm chances will
continue through the period; with chances starting to decrease by
Sunday as the ridge begins to push east. The current model runs are
showing the best day for precipitation and storms to be Thursday,
primarily in the evening and overnight hours along the western
portions of the CWA. Friday has a similar set up as Thursday but the
more intense storm potential looks to be south of our CWA, yet
storms are still possible over the region. Saturday and Sunday could
see precipitation but with the ridge starting to move east the
greatest chances for storms will be east of the CWA. Temperatures
are expected to drop Friday into the upper 70s and low 80s but will
increase back into the mid 80s and low 90s Saturday and Sunday with
the ridge pushing east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Complex forecast due to mesoscale influences from the overnight
convection that most of the model output is not taking into
account. Currently thunderstorms are occurring to the west and
northwest of both sites. For Kgld...am expecting thunderstorms to
begin affecting the site from around 20z to around 03z. Some mvfr
conditions look to occur here. Winds will remain highly variable.

For Kmck...There looks to be two different rounds of thunderstorms
that will affect the area. The first one will be around 21z and
lasting to near 00z. Second round looks to occur from around 04z
to near 08z. Did not feel confident enough to put in mvfr
conditions and just have vfr at this time. The winds will also be
highly variable in nature due to thunderstorm outflow boundaries.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271749
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1149 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Just completed an update to make adjustments to the precipitation
and sky cover based on latest trends. Complicated forecast due to
a number of outflow boundaries across the area and ongoing
convection. High resolution/convectively allowing models not
catching onto reality at this time.

Thunderstorms currently over the northwest portion of the area
are not being shown by the guidance. Instability axis runs
southeast from this area so expect a continued increase in
coverage and intensity as shortwave trough moves in from the
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Today-tonight...00z gfs had a great handle (per 700-500mb rh) on
small cluster of showers and thunderstorms just north of our
forecast area early this morning. It along with other model
solutions initiate showers and thunderstorms generally along and
north of the interstate by mid afternoon with a track toward the
southeast through the remainder of the area during the evening.
Other concern will be fog both early this morning and again late
tonight. For this morning should see quite a bit of fog and may have
some dense fog generally south of a line from near Idalia to
goodland to parts of Gove county. For tonight it could be just about
anywhere in the area depending on how convection develops. High
temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...drier air in the 700-500mb layer moves in
for the daytime hours behind the prior nights convection. Have
removed all precipitation wording. For the evening and overnight
models fair agreement moving a weather disturbance south-southeast
across the area producing scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Stratus and fog again possible late Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...more stable air along with drier air
aloft quickly moves in during the morning and continues through the
day and have again pulled all mention of precipitation. Models again
showing another weather disturbance moving south-southeast during
the evening and overnight hours bringing another chance for
thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The upper level pattern has not changed over the weekend, with the
same pattern of a trough over the eastern states and a ridge in the
western states. There is a trough beginning to move into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday and will continue to push east during the
extended period; which will eventually push the ridge east. The CWA
is still between the ridge and trough, which is creating a mid to
upper level northwest flow. That in association with 700 mb
shortwaves and favorable CAPE values, rain and storm chances will
continue through the period; with chances starting to decrease by
Sunday as the ridge begins to push east. The current model runs are
showing the best day for precipitation and storms to be Thursday,
primarily in the evening and overnight hours along the western
portions of the CWA. Friday has a similar set up as Thursday but the
more intense storm potential looks to be south of our CWA, yet
storms are still possible over the region. Saturday and Sunday could
see precipitation but with the ridge starting to move east the
greatest chances for storms will be east of the CWA. Temperatures
are expected to drop Friday into the upper 70s and low 80s but will
increase back into the mid 80s and low 90s Saturday and Sunday with
the ridge pushing east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Complex forecast due to mesoscale influences from the overnight
convection that most of the model output is not taking into
account. Currently thunderstorms are occurring to the west and
northwest of both sites. For Kgld...am expecting thunderstorms to
begin affecting the site from around 20z to around 03z. Some mvfr
conditions look to occur here. Winds will remain highly variable.

For Kmck...There looks to be two different rounds of thunderstorms
that will affect the area. The first one will be around 21z and
lasting to near 00z. Second round looks to occur from around 04z
to near 08z. Did not feel confident enough to put in mvfr
conditions and just have vfr at this time. The winds will also be
highly variable in nature due to thunderstorm outflow boundaries.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 271742
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Early this morning the mid-level trough axis was centered just north
of the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the cold front that had
tracked across the forecast area yesterday was stretched across
southeast Kansas and was providing enough lift to support some
scattered showers and isolated storms along the
Kansas/Oklahoma/Missouri state borders.  Early morning dewpoints
were in the mid/upper 60s with temperatures cooling into the upper
60s/near 70 degrees, resulting in a moist environment present across
the area.  While some mid/high clouds were present across far
eastern Kansas, satellite imagery showed some breaks in the cloud
cover that, along with light or calm winds, may help to support some
patchy fog development around sunrise across the outlook area.

Early this morning another cold front was located near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. Models show an embedded shortwave developing
along the western edge of the mid-level trough axis, and this
shortwave should help to push this cold front southward across
Nebraska today and near the Kansas/Nebraska border tonight. Expect
dry conditions during much of the daytime hours as the area becomes
wedged between the two cold fronts, with high temperatures topping
out in the low 90s.  Expect increasing precipitation chances late
afternoon into this evening across north central and far northern
Kansas with the approaching cold front. With little to no cap in
place and decent mid-level lapse rates, expect enough
destabilization to occur this afternoon across north central and
northern Kansas to result in 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE. These
conditions combined with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear should support some
scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front. However,
there is still some uncertainty with regards to the coverage of
thunderstorm development across north central and far northern
Kansas as some models suggest that the best forcing may be focused
west of the forecast area.  Regardless, with these environmental
conditions in place, any storms that develop will have the potential
to become strong to severe with the main hazards being strong winds
and hail. Due to the uncertainty in the coverage of any thunderstorm
development, only have slight to chance PoPs in at this time for
tonight into Tuesday morning across north central and far northeast
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The long term temperature forecast remains consistent with the
expected cooler temperature influx. Highs each day will be mainly
in the 80s, with some reliance and fluctuation based on any
daytime precipitation and related overnight could cover. All-in-
all, a period of relative consistency is expected for Tuesday
through next weekend.

This period of the forecast will also be impacted by multiple
short wave troughs moving through the relatively fast northwest
flow pattern that will set up overhead. The northwest flow will be
rather persistent through around Sunday or Monday when a shift
toward a more zonal pattern appears likely. Until that time,
expect multiple chances for thunderstorms on an almost daily and
nightly basis. Will focus on a few specific periods that perhaps
garner more interest from an impact and confidence perspective.

First, have added precip chances in northern Kansas on Tuesday
morning as a back door frontal boundary moves into the area from
the northeast. There is a strong model signal that the front will
interact with modest elevated instability to support scattered
thunderstorm development by sunrise on Tuesday, probably
diminishing as it builds to the south during the morning hours.
The rest of Tuesday into Tuesday evening will probably be dry.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely feature an MCS
developing over Nebraska and then building into Kansas as a strong
short wave and jet max moves across the region. There is a high
confidence in this convection developing, but a bit lower
confidence regarding the location and timing. The NAM/GFS are in
one camp in developing a forward propagating MCS Tuesday night
in NE and bringing it into KS by sunrise while other guidance such
as the ECMWF and Canadian models develop the convection a bit
farther east in Nebraska and bring it south into the area during
the day on Wednesday. Regardless of the specific details, western
parts of the forecast area seem to have the best combination of
shear and instability to support any risk of severe storms...and
MCS maintenance would seem to be more favored in those areas as
well so have continued to focus higher pops in western zones.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning shows a strong signal for
low level jet convergence and moisture flux convergence into
central and east central KS. Instability and effective shear are
not particularly impressive, but a relatively stationary
initiation zone and SREF pwat values in excess of 1.5 inches
suggest locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Widespread height falls and a boundary in the vicinity on Friday
and the likely passage of a stronger short wave trough aloft on
Saturday point to continued thunderstorm chances into the weekend
although details are less certain at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Scattered CU will develop at the terminals with bases of 4,000 to
6,000 feet. There may be an thunderstorm around the terminals late
this afternoon or this evening. High clouds from a thunderstorm
complex moving southeast across central KS will probably prevent
ground fog from forming by sunrise. However, if skies remain clear
there could be some patchy dense ground fog around the terminals near
sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 271742
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Early this morning the mid-level trough axis was centered just north
of the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the cold front that had
tracked across the forecast area yesterday was stretched across
southeast Kansas and was providing enough lift to support some
scattered showers and isolated storms along the
Kansas/Oklahoma/Missouri state borders.  Early morning dewpoints
were in the mid/upper 60s with temperatures cooling into the upper
60s/near 70 degrees, resulting in a moist environment present across
the area.  While some mid/high clouds were present across far
eastern Kansas, satellite imagery showed some breaks in the cloud
cover that, along with light or calm winds, may help to support some
patchy fog development around sunrise across the outlook area.

Early this morning another cold front was located near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. Models show an embedded shortwave developing
along the western edge of the mid-level trough axis, and this
shortwave should help to push this cold front southward across
Nebraska today and near the Kansas/Nebraska border tonight. Expect
dry conditions during much of the daytime hours as the area becomes
wedged between the two cold fronts, with high temperatures topping
out in the low 90s.  Expect increasing precipitation chances late
afternoon into this evening across north central and far northern
Kansas with the approaching cold front. With little to no cap in
place and decent mid-level lapse rates, expect enough
destabilization to occur this afternoon across north central and
northern Kansas to result in 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE. These
conditions combined with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear should support some
scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front. However,
there is still some uncertainty with regards to the coverage of
thunderstorm development across north central and far northern
Kansas as some models suggest that the best forcing may be focused
west of the forecast area.  Regardless, with these environmental
conditions in place, any storms that develop will have the potential
to become strong to severe with the main hazards being strong winds
and hail. Due to the uncertainty in the coverage of any thunderstorm
development, only have slight to chance PoPs in at this time for
tonight into Tuesday morning across north central and far northeast
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The long term temperature forecast remains consistent with the
expected cooler temperature influx. Highs each day will be mainly
in the 80s, with some reliance and fluctuation based on any
daytime precipitation and related overnight could cover. All-in-
all, a period of relative consistency is expected for Tuesday
through next weekend.

This period of the forecast will also be impacted by multiple
short wave troughs moving through the relatively fast northwest
flow pattern that will set up overhead. The northwest flow will be
rather persistent through around Sunday or Monday when a shift
toward a more zonal pattern appears likely. Until that time,
expect multiple chances for thunderstorms on an almost daily and
nightly basis. Will focus on a few specific periods that perhaps
garner more interest from an impact and confidence perspective.

First, have added precip chances in northern Kansas on Tuesday
morning as a back door frontal boundary moves into the area from
the northeast. There is a strong model signal that the front will
interact with modest elevated instability to support scattered
thunderstorm development by sunrise on Tuesday, probably
diminishing as it builds to the south during the morning hours.
The rest of Tuesday into Tuesday evening will probably be dry.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely feature an MCS
developing over Nebraska and then building into Kansas as a strong
short wave and jet max moves across the region. There is a high
confidence in this convection developing, but a bit lower
confidence regarding the location and timing. The NAM/GFS are in
one camp in developing a forward propagating MCS Tuesday night
in NE and bringing it into KS by sunrise while other guidance such
as the ECMWF and Canadian models develop the convection a bit
farther east in Nebraska and bring it south into the area during
the day on Wednesday. Regardless of the specific details, western
parts of the forecast area seem to have the best combination of
shear and instability to support any risk of severe storms...and
MCS maintenance would seem to be more favored in those areas as
well so have continued to focus higher pops in western zones.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning shows a strong signal for
low level jet convergence and moisture flux convergence into
central and east central KS. Instability and effective shear are
not particularly impressive, but a relatively stationary
initiation zone and SREF pwat values in excess of 1.5 inches
suggest locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Widespread height falls and a boundary in the vicinity on Friday
and the likely passage of a stronger short wave trough aloft on
Saturday point to continued thunderstorm chances into the weekend
although details are less certain at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Scattered CU will develop at the terminals with bases of 4,000 to
6,000 feet. There may be an thunderstorm around the terminals late
this afternoon or this evening. High clouds from a thunderstorm
complex moving southeast across central KS will probably prevent
ground fog from forming by sunrise. However, if skies remain clear
there could be some patchy dense ground fog around the terminals near
sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KICT 271737
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1237 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough tracking across
eastern Ontario with a much weaker impulse sliding across ND.
Meanwhile, upper ridging stretches from the southwest CONUS into
the southern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from
the western Great Lakes, through MN and across southern SD

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of fog quickly developed in Saline County around 6 AM where
visibilities have been as low as 1/2 mile. Visibilities have been
fluctuating to around 2 miles. Have inserted fog to "Areas Of Fog"
to Saline County & immediately adjacent counties til 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Best guess on what is keeping storms around early this morning
would be some kind of remnant MCV from last nights convection
combined with some weak mid level moisture transport. Will keep
with the thinking that this activity will continue to slowly push
south this morning, exiting KS by around 15z.

Moist airmass will remain in place today with below normal mid
level temps resulting in plenty of instability. However, lack of
surface focus should limit daytime convective development. Higher
chances for storms today will be over western Nebraska/northeast
CO/NW KS where the western edge of a cold front will combine with
good upslope processes. This activity is expected to dive
south/southeast overnight, affecting mainly the western half of
KS. Therefore, will carry the highest pops tonight generally west
of I-135.

The same basic scenario looks to play out for Tue into Tue night,
with daytime convection chances remaining minimal with much better
chances over western Nebraska. This area of convection will again
dive south and southeast Tue night, getting into the northern
fringes of the forecast area after midnight. This activity looks
more robust compared to what the storms tonight should be due to
stronger mid/upper flow. In addition, 850-700mb moisture transport
is stronger which should allow this mcs to persist longer,
possibly tracking through south central KS Wed.

Confidence is high that temps will be closer to normal with highs
through Wed around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

NW flow is expected to persist across the Plains through the work
week as it starts to flatten out to start the weekend. This will
keep modest rain chances in through these extended periods. With
surface features to key on at a minimum, the most likely scenario
for storm development will be weak impulses tracking out of the
Rockies and desert SW. There is some model agreement that a series
of these upper features will move out across the Plains Thu night
through Fri night. Confidence is high in below normal temps
through these extended periods with highs mostly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

While mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail thru the
forecast valid period, MVFR cigs are expected in southeast Kansas
this afternoon with patchy MVFR cigs and VSBYS tonight. Otherwise
isolated late afternoon convection is possible about anywhere in
central and parts of southern Kansas. A more organized area of
convection or MCS is expected to evolve across the high Plains
this evening and move south-southeast across western and perhaps
parts of central Kansas overnight. For now will relegate mention
to VCTS, though KRSL and KGBD stand a little better chance to see
TSRA than further east.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  71  89  68 /  60  20  10  20
Hutchinson      91  70  89  67 /  20  30  10  20
Newton          92  70  89  66 /  20  20  10  20
ElDorado        92  70  89  66 /  20  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   92  71  89  68 /  60  20  10  10
Russell         91  67  88  66 /  40  50  20  50
Great Bend      91  67  88  66 /  30  60  20  50
Salina          93  69  88  66 /  20  30  10  30
McPherson       91  69  89  66 /  20  20  10  20
Coffeyville     92  70  89  67 /  40  10  10  10
Chanute         91  70  88  66 /  30  10  10  10
Iola            91  70  88  65 /  20  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    92  70  88  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The southwest KS region was precipitation free as of 0630 UTC and is
expected to continue this way through the remainder of the night.
The small mesoscale convective system (MCS) over southwest Nebraska
continued to weaken as it approached the KS border. Much of
southwest Kansas had surface winds less than 8 mph with mid to upper
60s dewpoints, especially along the Arkansas River valley into
northwest Oklahoma. The mostly clear sky, light winds, and
temperature-dewpoint spreads at a couple of degrees will likely
foster development of ground fog. Just about all the short-term high
resolution models show a corridor of 1/4 mile visibility across
southwest Kansas, and confidence is high enough to include a few
hours of fog in the grids centered around sunrise. Any fog will burn
off quickly with a southeast wind developing. It will not be all
that strong, generally 12 mph or less.

Zonal west-northwest flow in the mid-troposphere across Wyoming into
western Nebraska and northern Colorado will continue. This will lead
to lower leeside pressure and a low level convergence zone setting
up across northeast Colorado and adjacent southwest Nebraska. Severe
local storms will likely develop in this convergence axis by late
afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear, some help from a minor
disturbance in the mid level flow pattern, low level moisture, and
low level inflow will all aid in the development of another MCS in
this region. After some late day mixing of moisture across far
western Kansas, there should be another surge of low level moisture
northwest toward the MCS around or shortly after sunset. This should
aid on the maintenance of an MCS into western Kansas after dark.
POPs were increased to Likely (60-70 percent) across much of
southwest Kansas given high enough confidence in an MCS making it
into our region late in the night. If there is any severe weather
with the MCS, it will be early on, and primarily along the I-70
corridor. The MCS should begin to dissolve in the 09-12Z time frame,
as the boundary layer becomes too stable and the MCS moves away from
the quality upper level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The advertised wet pattern is still on track through this Long Term
period. The latest global spectral model solutions continue to
indicate that flat ridging will prevail from roughly West Texas
through the Four Corners region. West-northwesterly mid-upper
tropospheric flow will be the name of the game throughout the
entirety of this time period. There will be little nuances in the
flow regime that will dictate timing, location, and strength of the
daily/nightly MCSs which will no doubt be a common theme in this
pattern across the western/central Great Plains. This makes the POP
forecast difficult, and it is probably best to just keep 30-50 POPs
going for just about every period (especially the night periods) and
try not to get too cute with sub-period (12-hr) POP evolutions, as
the skill in timing/placement of these MCSs is simply not good
beyond Day 2. All we really feel pretty good about is that there
will be MCSs almost daily/nightly affecting some portion of the
western half of Kansas.

By the end of this forecast period (4th of July), many locations
will see precipitation totals exceeding 3 inches, with a smattering
of 5+ inches possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR expected through TAF pd. Latest models keep convection mainly across
far western Kansas. Lower confidence to the east. Will put tempo/cb/tsra
for KGCK tonight. Winds will be SE to S 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  67  87  66 /  10  60  30  30
GCK  90  65  88  66 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  91  65  88  66 /  10  30  20  20
LBL  92  66  88  66 /  10  50  30  20
HYS  90  65  87  65 /  20  60  20  50
P28  92  70  89  66 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271613
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1013 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Just completed an update to make adjustments to the precipitation
and sky cover based on latest trends. Complicated forecast due to
a number of outflow boundaries across the area and ongoing
convection. High resolution/convectively allowing models not
catching onto reality at this time.

Thunderstorms currently over the northwest portion of the area
are not being shown by the guidance. Instability axis runs
southeast from this area so expect a continued increase in
coverage and intensity as shortwave trough moves in from the
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Today-tonight...00z gfs had a great handle (per 700-500mb rh) on
small cluster of showers and thunderstorms just north of our
forecast area early this morning. It along with other model
solutions initiate showers and thunderstorms generally along and
north of the interstate by mid afternoon with a track toward the
southeast through the remainder of the area during the evening.
Other concern will be fog both early this morning and again late
tonight. For this morning should see quite a bit of fog and may have
some dense fog generally south of a line from near Idalia to
goodland to parts of Gove county. For tonight it could be just about
anywhere in the area depending on how convection develops. High
temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...drier air in the 700-500mb layer moves in
for the daytime hours behind the prior nights convection. Have
removed all precipitation wording. For the evening and overnight
models fair agreement moving a weather disturbance south-southeast
across the area producing scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Stratus and fog again possible late Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...more stable air along with drier air
aloft quickly moves in during the morning and continues through the
day and have again pulled all mention of precipitation. Models again
showing another weather disturbance moving south-southeast during
the evening and overnight hours bringing another chance for
thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The upper level pattern has not changed over the weekend, with the
same pattern of a trough over the eastern states and a ridge in the
western states. There is a trough beginning to move into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday and will continue to push east during the
extended period; which will eventually push the ridge east. The CWA
is still between the ridge and trough, which is creating a mid to
upper level northwest flow. That in association with 700 mb
shortwaves and favorable CAPE values, rain and storm chances will
continue through the period; with chances starting to decrease by
Sunday as the ridge begins to push east. The current model runs are
showing the best day for precipitation and storms to be Thursday,
primarily in the evening and overnight hours along the western
portions of the CWA. Friday has a similar set up as Thursday but the
more intense storm potential looks to be south of our CWA, yet
storms are still possible over the region. Saturday and Sunday could
see precipitation but with the ridge starting to move east the
greatest chances for storms will be east of the CWA. Temperatures
are expected to drop Friday into the upper 70s and low 80s but will
increase back into the mid 80s and low 90s Saturday and Sunday with
the ridge pushing east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

KGLD...ifr/vlifr cigs with possibly visibility restrictions in
fog from taf issuance through approximately 13z-14z. Quite a bit
of sun with southeast winds around 10kts from 15z through 18z.
After 18z thunderstorm chances slowly increase with the best
chance of impacting the terminal from 22z-05z. Main threats will
be large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. After
06z precipitation threat should be south of the terminal. Will
have to watch for return of abundant boundary layer moisture which
may create ifr/vlifr cigs and possibly some fog.

KMCK...vfr conditions expected through much of the period.
Thunderstorm chances slowly increase after about 20z with the best
chance of impacting the terminal in the 21z-04z timeframe. Main
threats will be large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall. After about 05z precipitation threat should be south of
the terminal. Similar to KGLD low level moisture increases and may
result in ifr/vlifr cigs and vis after 06z.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271324
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS
824 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Dense Fog Expanding Across Area...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Dense fog deck has begun to clear a bit along western and
southwestern flanks but has expanded to the north to Scott City
and Dighton areas. While near term models do not have a
particularly good handle on situation location wise, general
consensus of fog lifting by 15z looks reasonable. As such have
expanded advisory to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The southwest KS region was precipitation free as of 0630 UTC and is
expected to continue this way through the remainder of the night.
The small mesoscale convective system (MCS) over southwest Nebraska
continued to weaken as it approached the KS border. Much of
southwest Kansas had surface winds less than 8 mph with mid to upper
60s dewpoints, especially along the Arkansas River valley into
northwest Oklahoma. The mostly clear sky, light winds, and
temperature-dewpoint spreads at a couple of degrees will likely
foster development of ground fog. Just about all the short-term high
resolution models show a corridor of 1/4 mile visibility across
southwest Kansas, and confidence is high enough to include a few
hours of fog in the grids centered around sunrise. Any fog will burn
off quickly with a southeast wind developing. It will not be all
that strong, generally 12 mph or less.

Zonal west-northwest flow in the mid-troposphere across Wyoming into
western Nebraska and northern Colorado will continue. This will lead
to lower leeside pressure and a low level convergence zone setting
up across northeast Colorado and adjacent southwest Nebraska. Severe
local storms will likely develop in this convergence axis by late
afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear, some help from a minor
disturbance in the mid level flow pattern, low level moisture, and
low level inflow will all aid in the development of another MCS in
this region. After some late day mixing of moisture across far
western Kansas, there should be another surge of low level moisture
northwest toward the MCS around or shortly after sunset. This should
aid on the maintenance of an MCS into western Kansas after dark.
POPs were increased to Likely (60-70 percent) across much of
southwest Kansas given high enough confidence in an MCS making it
into our region late in the night. If there is any severe weather
with the MCS, it will be early on, and primarily along the I-70
corridor. The MCS should begin to dissolve in the 09-12Z time frame,
as the boundary layer becomes too stable and the MCS moves away from
the quality upper level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The advertised wet pattern is still on track through this Long Term
period. The latest global spectral model solutions continue to
indicate that flat ridging will prevail from roughly West Texas
through the Four Corners region. West-northwesterly mid-upper
tropospheric flow will be the name of the game throughout the
entirety of this time period. There will be little nuances in the
flow regime that will dictate timing, location, and strength of the
daily/nightly MCSs which will no doubt be a common theme in this
pattern across the western/central Great Plains. This makes the POP
forecast difficult, and it is probably best to just keep 30-50 POPs
going for just about every period (especially the night periods) and
try not to get too cute with sub-period (12-hr) POP evolutions, as
the skill in timing/placement of these MCSs is simply not good
beyond Day 2. All we really feel pretty good about is that there
will be MCSs almost daily/nightly affecting some portion of the
western half of Kansas.

By the end of this forecast period (4th of July), many locations
will see precipitation totals exceeding 3 inches, with a smattering
of 5+ inches possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of dense fog will linger through mid morning resulting in
IFR vsbys at KDDC and possibly KGCK. Otherwise, VFR conditions can
be expected at all TAF sites by late morning and persisting
through late this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible in
vicinity of KHYS this evening and KGCK and KDDC overnight
resulting in possible MVFR cigs/vsbys. Southeasterly winds 5 to
15kt will persist across western and central Kansas through this
evening as surface high pressure shifts southeast across the Upper
Midwest.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  67  87  66 /  10  60  30  30
GCK  90  65  88  66 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  90  65  88  66 /  10  30  20  20
LBL  92  66  88  66 /  10  50  30  20
HYS  89  65  87  65 /  20  60  20  50
P28  92  70  89  66 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ043>045-061>065-074>080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Martin
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271324
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
Issued by National Weather Service Goodland KS
824 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Dense Fog Expanding Across Area...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Dense fog deck has begun to clear a bit along western and
southwestern flanks but has expanded to the north to Scott City
and Dighton areas. While near term models do not have a
particularly good handle on situation location wise, general
consensus of fog lifting by 15z looks reasonable. As such have
expanded advisory to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The southwest KS region was precipitation free as of 0630 UTC and is
expected to continue this way through the remainder of the night.
The small mesoscale convective system (MCS) over southwest Nebraska
continued to weaken as it approached the KS border. Much of
southwest Kansas had surface winds less than 8 mph with mid to upper
60s dewpoints, especially along the Arkansas River valley into
northwest Oklahoma. The mostly clear sky, light winds, and
temperature-dewpoint spreads at a couple of degrees will likely
foster development of ground fog. Just about all the short-term high
resolution models show a corridor of 1/4 mile visibility across
southwest Kansas, and confidence is high enough to include a few
hours of fog in the grids centered around sunrise. Any fog will burn
off quickly with a southeast wind developing. It will not be all
that strong, generally 12 mph or less.

Zonal west-northwest flow in the mid-troposphere across Wyoming into
western Nebraska and northern Colorado will continue. This will lead
to lower leeside pressure and a low level convergence zone setting
up across northeast Colorado and adjacent southwest Nebraska. Severe
local storms will likely develop in this convergence axis by late
afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear, some help from a minor
disturbance in the mid level flow pattern, low level moisture, and
low level inflow will all aid in the development of another MCS in
this region. After some late day mixing of moisture across far
western Kansas, there should be another surge of low level moisture
northwest toward the MCS around or shortly after sunset. This should
aid on the maintenance of an MCS into western Kansas after dark.
POPs were increased to Likely (60-70 percent) across much of
southwest Kansas given high enough confidence in an MCS making it
into our region late in the night. If there is any severe weather
with the MCS, it will be early on, and primarily along the I-70
corridor. The MCS should begin to dissolve in the 09-12Z time frame,
as the boundary layer becomes too stable and the MCS moves away from
the quality upper level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The advertised wet pattern is still on track through this Long Term
period. The latest global spectral model solutions continue to
indicate that flat ridging will prevail from roughly West Texas
through the Four Corners region. West-northwesterly mid-upper
tropospheric flow will be the name of the game throughout the
entirety of this time period. There will be little nuances in the
flow regime that will dictate timing, location, and strength of the
daily/nightly MCSs which will no doubt be a common theme in this
pattern across the western/central Great Plains. This makes the POP
forecast difficult, and it is probably best to just keep 30-50 POPs
going for just about every period (especially the night periods) and
try not to get too cute with sub-period (12-hr) POP evolutions, as
the skill in timing/placement of these MCSs is simply not good
beyond Day 2. All we really feel pretty good about is that there
will be MCSs almost daily/nightly affecting some portion of the
western half of Kansas.

By the end of this forecast period (4th of July), many locations
will see precipitation totals exceeding 3 inches, with a smattering
of 5+ inches possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of dense fog will linger through mid morning resulting in
IFR vsbys at KDDC and possibly KGCK. Otherwise, VFR conditions can
be expected at all TAF sites by late morning and persisting
through late this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible in
vicinity of KHYS this evening and KGCK and KDDC overnight
resulting in possible MVFR cigs/vsbys. Southeasterly winds 5 to
15kt will persist across western and central Kansas through this
evening as surface high pressure shifts southeast across the Upper
Midwest.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  67  87  66 /  10  60  30  30
GCK  90  65  88  66 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  90  65  88  66 /  10  30  20  20
LBL  92  66  88  66 /  10  50  30  20
HYS  89  65  87  65 /  20  60  20  50
P28  92  70  89  66 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
KSZ043>045-061>065-074>080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Martin
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KICT 271212
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
712 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough tracking across
eastern Ontario with a much weaker impulse sliding across ND.
Meanwhile, upper ridging stretches from the southwest CONUS into
the southern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from
the western Great Lakes, through MN and across southern SD

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of fog quickly developed in Saline County around 6 AM where
visibilities have been as low as 1/2 mile. Visibilities have been
fluctuating to around 2 miles. Have inserted fog to "Areas Of Fog"
to Saline County & immediately adjacent counties til 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Best guess on what is keeping storms around early this morning
would be some kind of remnant MCV from last nights convection
combined with some weak mid level moisture transport. Will keep
with the thinking that this activity will continue to slowly push
south this morning, exiting KS by around 15z.

Moist airmass will remain in place today with below normal mid
level temps resulting in plenty of instability. However, lack of
surface focus should limit daytime convective development. Higher
chances for storms today will be over western Nebraska/northeast
CO/NW KS where the western edge of a cold front will combine with
good upslope processes. This activity is expected to dive
south/southeast overnight, affecting mainly the western half of
KS. Therefore, will carry the highest pops tonight generally west
of I-135.

The same basic scenario looks to play out for Tue into Tue night,
with daytime convection chances remaining minimal with much better
chances over western Nebraska. This area of convection will again
dive south and southeast Tue night, getting into the northern
fringes of the forecast area after midnight. This activity looks
more robust compared to what the storms tonight should be due to
stronger mid/upper flow. In addition, 850-700mb moisture transport
is stronger which should allow this mcs to persist longer,
possibly tracking through south central KS Wed.

Confidence is high that temps will be closer to normal with highs
through Wed around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

NW flow is expected to persist across the Plains through the work
week as it starts to flatten out to start the weekend. This will
keep modest rain chances in through these extended periods. With
surface features to key on at a minimum, the most likely scenario
for storm development will be weak impulses tracking out of the
Rockies and desert SW. There is some model agreement that a series
of these upper features will move out across the Plains Thu night
through Fri night. Confidence is high in below normal temps
through these extended periods with highs mostly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 711 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The first 2-3 hours will be precarious with areas of LIFR cigs in
Cntrl & SE KS. Vsbys in parts of Cntrl KS have been fluctuating
from around 1/2SM FG to 2 1/2SM BR since about 0650Z at KSLN. Both
cigs & vsbys should improve to VFR by 15Z. SCT TSRA are lkly acrs
far SC & SE KS thru 18Z. Unleashing outflow would cause sporadic
development thrut the mrng. In areas of TSRA MVFR vsbys are lkly
but their sporadic nature dictates "VCTS" assignment at KICT &
KCNU which wl be updated very shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  71  89  68 /  10  20  10  20
Hutchinson      91  70  89  67 /  10  30  10  20
Newton          92  70  89  66 /  10  20  10  20
ElDorado        92  70  89  66 /  10  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   92  71  89  68 /  20  20  10  10
Russell         91  67  88  66 /  20  50  20  50
Great Bend      91  67  88  66 /  20  60  20  50
Salina          92  69  88  66 /  20  30  10  30
McPherson       91  69  89  66 /  10  20  10  20
Coffeyville     92  70  89  67 /  30  10  10  10
Chanute         91  70  88  66 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            91  70  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    92  70  88  66 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS




000
FXUS63 KICT 271212
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
712 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough tracking across
eastern Ontario with a much weaker impulse sliding across ND.
Meanwhile, upper ridging stretches from the southwest CONUS into
the southern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from
the western Great Lakes, through MN and across southern SD

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of fog quickly developed in Saline County around 6 AM where
visibilities have been as low as 1/2 mile. Visibilities have been
fluctuating to around 2 miles. Have inserted fog to "Areas Of Fog"
to Saline County & immediately adjacent counties til 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Best guess on what is keeping storms around early this morning
would be some kind of remnant MCV from last nights convection
combined with some weak mid level moisture transport. Will keep
with the thinking that this activity will continue to slowly push
south this morning, exiting KS by around 15z.

Moist airmass will remain in place today with below normal mid
level temps resulting in plenty of instability. However, lack of
surface focus should limit daytime convective development. Higher
chances for storms today will be over western Nebraska/northeast
CO/NW KS where the western edge of a cold front will combine with
good upslope processes. This activity is expected to dive
south/southeast overnight, affecting mainly the western half of
KS. Therefore, will carry the highest pops tonight generally west
of I-135.

The same basic scenario looks to play out for Tue into Tue night,
with daytime convection chances remaining minimal with much better
chances over western Nebraska. This area of convection will again
dive south and southeast Tue night, getting into the northern
fringes of the forecast area after midnight. This activity looks
more robust compared to what the storms tonight should be due to
stronger mid/upper flow. In addition, 850-700mb moisture transport
is stronger which should allow this mcs to persist longer,
possibly tracking through south central KS Wed.

Confidence is high that temps will be closer to normal with highs
through Wed around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

NW flow is expected to persist across the Plains through the work
week as it starts to flatten out to start the weekend. This will
keep modest rain chances in through these extended periods. With
surface features to key on at a minimum, the most likely scenario
for storm development will be weak impulses tracking out of the
Rockies and desert SW. There is some model agreement that a series
of these upper features will move out across the Plains Thu night
through Fri night. Confidence is high in below normal temps
through these extended periods with highs mostly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 711 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The first 2-3 hours will be precarious with areas of LIFR cigs in
Cntrl & SE KS. Vsbys in parts of Cntrl KS have been fluctuating
from around 1/2SM FG to 2 1/2SM BR since about 0650Z at KSLN. Both
cigs & vsbys should improve to VFR by 15Z. SCT TSRA are lkly acrs
far SC & SE KS thru 18Z. Unleashing outflow would cause sporadic
development thrut the mrng. In areas of TSRA MVFR vsbys are lkly
but their sporadic nature dictates "VCTS" assignment at KICT &
KCNU which wl be updated very shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  71  89  68 /  10  20  10  20
Hutchinson      91  70  89  67 /  10  30  10  20
Newton          92  70  89  66 /  10  20  10  20
ElDorado        92  70  89  66 /  10  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   92  71  89  68 /  20  20  10  10
Russell         91  67  88  66 /  20  50  20  50
Great Bend      91  67  88  66 /  20  60  20  50
Salina          92  69  88  66 /  20  30  10  30
McPherson       91  69  89  66 /  10  20  10  20
Coffeyville     92  70  89  67 /  30  10  10  10
Chanute         91  70  88  66 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            91  70  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    92  70  88  66 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...EPS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 271129
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
629 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Early this morning the mid-level trough axis was centered just north
of the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the cold front that had
tracked across the forecast area yesterday was stretched across
southeast Kansas and was providing enough lift to support some
scattered showers and isolated storms along the
Kansas/Oklahoma/Missouri state borders.  Early morning dewpoints
were in the mid/upper 60s with temperatures cooling into the upper
60s/near 70 degrees, resulting in a moist environment present across
the area.  While some mid/high clouds were present across far
eastern Kansas, satellite imagery showed some breaks in the cloud
cover that, along with light or calm winds, may help to support some
patchy fog development around sunrise across the outlook area.

Early this morning another cold front was located near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. Models show an embedded shortwave developing
along the western edge of the mid-level trough axis, and this
shortwave should help to push this cold front southward across
Nebraska today and near the Kansas/Nebraska border tonight. Expect
dry conditions during much of the daytime hours as the area becomes
wedged between the two cold fronts, with high temperatures topping
out in the low 90s.  Expect increasing precipitation chances late
afternoon into this evening across north central and far northern
Kansas with the approaching cold front. With little to no cap in
place and decent mid-level lapse rates, expect enough
destabilization to occur this afternoon across north central and
northern Kansas to result in 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE. These
conditions combined with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear should support some
scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front. However,
there is still some uncertainty with regards to the coverage of
thunderstorm development across north central and far northern
Kansas as some models suggest that the best forcing may be focused
west of the forecast area.  Regardless, with these environmental
conditions in place, any storms that develop will have the potential
to become strong to severe with the main hazards being strong winds
and hail. Due to the uncertainty in the coverage of any thunderstorm
development, only have slight to chance PoPs in at this time for
tonight into Tuesday morning across north central and far northeast
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The long term temperature forecast remains consistent with the
expected cooler temperature influx. Highs each day will be mainly
in the 80s, with some reliance and fluctuation based on any
daytime precipitation and related overnight could cover. All-in-
all, a period of relative consistency is expected for Tuesday
through next weekend.

This period of the forecast will also be impacted by multiple
short wave troughs moving through the relatively fast northwest
flow pattern that will set up overhead. The northwest flow will be
rather persistent through around Sunday or Monday when a shift
toward a more zonal pattern appears likely. Until that time,
expect multiple chances for thunderstorms on an almost daily and
nightly basis. Will focus on a few specific periods that perhaps
garner more interest from an impact and confidence perspective.

First, have added precip chances in northern Kansas on Tuesday
morning as a back door frontal boundary moves into the area from
the northeast. There is a strong model signal that the front will
interact with modest elevated instability to support scattered
thunderstorm development by sunrise on Tuesday, probably
diminishing as it builds to the south during the morning hours.
The rest of Tuesday into Tuesday evening will probably be dry.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely feature an MCS
developing over Nebraska and then building into Kansas as a strong
short wave and jet max moves across the region. There is a high
confidence in this convection developing, but a bit lower
confidence regarding the location and timing. The NAM/GFS are in
one camp in developing a forward propagating MCS Tuesday night
in NE and bringing it into KS by sunrise while other guidance such
as the ECMWF and Canadian models develop the convection a bit
farther east in Nebraska and bring it south into the area during
the day on Wednesday. Regardless of the specific details, western
parts of the forecast area seem to have the best combination of
shear and instability to support any risk of severe storms...and
MCS maintenance would seem to be more favored in those areas as
well so have continued to focus higher pops in western zones.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning shows a strong signal for
low level jet convergence and moisture flux convergence into
central and east central KS. Instability and effective shear are
not particularly impressive, but a relatively stationary
initiation zone and SREF pwat values in excess of 1.5 inches
suggest locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Widespread height falls and a boundary in the vicinity on Friday
and the likely passage of a stronger short wave trough aloft on
Saturday point to continued thunderstorm chances into the weekend
although details are less certain at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the 12z TAFs, areas of dense fog causing VLIFR visibilities
will impact KTOP/KFOE this morning. This fog should quickly
dissipate by mid morning, with light winds and VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ026-039-
040-056-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 271129
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
629 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Early this morning the mid-level trough axis was centered just north
of the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the cold front that had
tracked across the forecast area yesterday was stretched across
southeast Kansas and was providing enough lift to support some
scattered showers and isolated storms along the
Kansas/Oklahoma/Missouri state borders.  Early morning dewpoints
were in the mid/upper 60s with temperatures cooling into the upper
60s/near 70 degrees, resulting in a moist environment present across
the area.  While some mid/high clouds were present across far
eastern Kansas, satellite imagery showed some breaks in the cloud
cover that, along with light or calm winds, may help to support some
patchy fog development around sunrise across the outlook area.

Early this morning another cold front was located near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. Models show an embedded shortwave developing
along the western edge of the mid-level trough axis, and this
shortwave should help to push this cold front southward across
Nebraska today and near the Kansas/Nebraska border tonight. Expect
dry conditions during much of the daytime hours as the area becomes
wedged between the two cold fronts, with high temperatures topping
out in the low 90s.  Expect increasing precipitation chances late
afternoon into this evening across north central and far northern
Kansas with the approaching cold front. With little to no cap in
place and decent mid-level lapse rates, expect enough
destabilization to occur this afternoon across north central and
northern Kansas to result in 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE. These
conditions combined with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear should support some
scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front. However,
there is still some uncertainty with regards to the coverage of
thunderstorm development across north central and far northern
Kansas as some models suggest that the best forcing may be focused
west of the forecast area.  Regardless, with these environmental
conditions in place, any storms that develop will have the potential
to become strong to severe with the main hazards being strong winds
and hail. Due to the uncertainty in the coverage of any thunderstorm
development, only have slight to chance PoPs in at this time for
tonight into Tuesday morning across north central and far northeast
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The long term temperature forecast remains consistent with the
expected cooler temperature influx. Highs each day will be mainly
in the 80s, with some reliance and fluctuation based on any
daytime precipitation and related overnight could cover. All-in-
all, a period of relative consistency is expected for Tuesday
through next weekend.

This period of the forecast will also be impacted by multiple
short wave troughs moving through the relatively fast northwest
flow pattern that will set up overhead. The northwest flow will be
rather persistent through around Sunday or Monday when a shift
toward a more zonal pattern appears likely. Until that time,
expect multiple chances for thunderstorms on an almost daily and
nightly basis. Will focus on a few specific periods that perhaps
garner more interest from an impact and confidence perspective.

First, have added precip chances in northern Kansas on Tuesday
morning as a back door frontal boundary moves into the area from
the northeast. There is a strong model signal that the front will
interact with modest elevated instability to support scattered
thunderstorm development by sunrise on Tuesday, probably
diminishing as it builds to the south during the morning hours.
The rest of Tuesday into Tuesday evening will probably be dry.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely feature an MCS
developing over Nebraska and then building into Kansas as a strong
short wave and jet max moves across the region. There is a high
confidence in this convection developing, but a bit lower
confidence regarding the location and timing. The NAM/GFS are in
one camp in developing a forward propagating MCS Tuesday night
in NE and bringing it into KS by sunrise while other guidance such
as the ECMWF and Canadian models develop the convection a bit
farther east in Nebraska and bring it south into the area during
the day on Wednesday. Regardless of the specific details, western
parts of the forecast area seem to have the best combination of
shear and instability to support any risk of severe storms...and
MCS maintenance would seem to be more favored in those areas as
well so have continued to focus higher pops in western zones.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning shows a strong signal for
low level jet convergence and moisture flux convergence into
central and east central KS. Instability and effective shear are
not particularly impressive, but a relatively stationary
initiation zone and SREF pwat values in excess of 1.5 inches
suggest locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Widespread height falls and a boundary in the vicinity on Friday
and the likely passage of a stronger short wave trough aloft on
Saturday point to continued thunderstorm chances into the weekend
although details are less certain at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the 12z TAFs, areas of dense fog causing VLIFR visibilities
will impact KTOP/KFOE this morning. This fog should quickly
dissipate by mid morning, with light winds and VFR conditions
prevailing through the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ026-039-
040-056-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271121
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The southwest KS region was precipitation free as of 0630 UTC and is
expected to continue this way through the remainder of the night.
The small mesoscale convective system (MCS) over southwest Nebraska
continued to weaken as it approached the KS border. Much of
southwest Kansas had surface winds less than 8 mph with mid to upper
60s dewpoints, especially along the Arkansas River valley into
northwest Oklahoma. The mostly clear sky, light winds, and
temperature-dewpoint spreads at a couple of degrees will likely
foster development of ground fog. Just about all the short-term high
resolution models show a corridor of 1/4 mile visibility across
southwest Kansas, and confidence is high enough to include a few
hours of fog in the grids centered around sunrise. Any fog will burn
off quickly with a southeast wind developing. It will not be all
that strong, generally 12 mph or less.

Zonal west-northwest flow in the mid-troposphere across Wyoming into
western Nebraska and northern Colorado will continue. This will lead
to lower leeside pressure and a low level convergence zone setting
up across northeast Colorado and adjacent southwest Nebraska. Severe
local storms will likely develop in this convergence axis by late
afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear, some help from a minor
disturbance in the mid level flow pattern, low level moisture, and
low level inflow will all aid in the development of another MCS in
this region. After some late day mixing of moisture across far
western Kansas, there should be another surge of low level moisture
northwest toward the MCS around or shortly after sunset. This should
aid on the maintenance of an MCS into western Kansas after dark.
POPs were increased to Likely (60-70 percent) across much of
southwest Kansas given high enough confidence in an MCS making it
into our region late in the night. If there is any severe weather
with the MCS, it will be early on, and primarily along the I-70
corridor. The MCS should begin to dissolve in the 09-12Z time frame,
as the boundary layer becomes too stable and the MCS moves away from
the quality upper level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The advertised wet pattern is still on track through this Long Term
period. The latest global spectral model solutions continue to
indicate that flat ridging will prevail from roughly West Texas
through the Four Corners region. West-northwesterly mid-upper
tropospheric flow will be the name of the game throughout the
entirety of this time period. There will be little nuances in the
flow regime that will dictate timing, location, and strength of the
daily/nightly MCSs which will no doubt be a common theme in this
pattern across the western/central Great Plains. This makes the POP
forecast difficult, and it is probably best to just keep 30-50 POPs
going for just about every period (especially the night periods) and
try not to get too cute with sub-period (12-hr) POP evolutions, as
the skill in timing/placement of these MCSs is simply not good
beyond Day 2. All we really feel pretty good about is that there
will be MCSs almost daily/nightly affecting some portion of the
western half of Kansas.

By the end of this forecast period (4th of July), many locations
will see precipitation totals exceeding 3 inches, with a smattering
of 5+ inches possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of dense fog will linger through mid morning resulting in
IFR vsbys at KDDC and possibly KGCK. Otherwise, VFR conditions can
be expected at all TAF sites by late morning and persisting
through late this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible in
vicinity of KHYS this evening and KGCK and KDDC overnight
resulting in possible MVFR cigs/vsbys. Southeasterly winds 5 to
15kt will persist across western and central Kansas through this
evening as surface high pressure shifts southeast across the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  67  87  66 /  10  60  30  30
GCK  90  65  88  66 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  90  65  88  66 /  10  30  20  20
LBL  92  66  88  66 /  10  50  30  20
HYS  89  65  87  65 /  20  60  20  50
P28  92  70  89  66 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ064-065-
077>080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271121
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The southwest KS region was precipitation free as of 0630 UTC and is
expected to continue this way through the remainder of the night.
The small mesoscale convective system (MCS) over southwest Nebraska
continued to weaken as it approached the KS border. Much of
southwest Kansas had surface winds less than 8 mph with mid to upper
60s dewpoints, especially along the Arkansas River valley into
northwest Oklahoma. The mostly clear sky, light winds, and
temperature-dewpoint spreads at a couple of degrees will likely
foster development of ground fog. Just about all the short-term high
resolution models show a corridor of 1/4 mile visibility across
southwest Kansas, and confidence is high enough to include a few
hours of fog in the grids centered around sunrise. Any fog will burn
off quickly with a southeast wind developing. It will not be all
that strong, generally 12 mph or less.

Zonal west-northwest flow in the mid-troposphere across Wyoming into
western Nebraska and northern Colorado will continue. This will lead
to lower leeside pressure and a low level convergence zone setting
up across northeast Colorado and adjacent southwest Nebraska. Severe
local storms will likely develop in this convergence axis by late
afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear, some help from a minor
disturbance in the mid level flow pattern, low level moisture, and
low level inflow will all aid in the development of another MCS in
this region. After some late day mixing of moisture across far
western Kansas, there should be another surge of low level moisture
northwest toward the MCS around or shortly after sunset. This should
aid on the maintenance of an MCS into western Kansas after dark.
POPs were increased to Likely (60-70 percent) across much of
southwest Kansas given high enough confidence in an MCS making it
into our region late in the night. If there is any severe weather
with the MCS, it will be early on, and primarily along the I-70
corridor. The MCS should begin to dissolve in the 09-12Z time frame,
as the boundary layer becomes too stable and the MCS moves away from
the quality upper level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The advertised wet pattern is still on track through this Long Term
period. The latest global spectral model solutions continue to
indicate that flat ridging will prevail from roughly West Texas
through the Four Corners region. West-northwesterly mid-upper
tropospheric flow will be the name of the game throughout the
entirety of this time period. There will be little nuances in the
flow regime that will dictate timing, location, and strength of the
daily/nightly MCSs which will no doubt be a common theme in this
pattern across the western/central Great Plains. This makes the POP
forecast difficult, and it is probably best to just keep 30-50 POPs
going for just about every period (especially the night periods) and
try not to get too cute with sub-period (12-hr) POP evolutions, as
the skill in timing/placement of these MCSs is simply not good
beyond Day 2. All we really feel pretty good about is that there
will be MCSs almost daily/nightly affecting some portion of the
western half of Kansas.

By the end of this forecast period (4th of July), many locations
will see precipitation totals exceeding 3 inches, with a smattering
of 5+ inches possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Areas of dense fog will linger through mid morning resulting in
IFR vsbys at KDDC and possibly KGCK. Otherwise, VFR conditions can
be expected at all TAF sites by late morning and persisting
through late this evening. Thunderstorms will be possible in
vicinity of KHYS this evening and KGCK and KDDC overnight
resulting in possible MVFR cigs/vsbys. Southeasterly winds 5 to
15kt will persist across western and central Kansas through this
evening as surface high pressure shifts southeast across the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  67  87  66 /  10  60  30  30
GCK  90  65  88  66 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  90  65  88  66 /  10  30  20  20
LBL  92  66  88  66 /  10  50  30  20
HYS  89  65  87  65 /  20  60  20  50
P28  92  70  89  66 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ064-065-
077>080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270945
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
345 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Today-tonight...00z gfs had a great handle (per 700-500mb rh) on
small cluster of showers and thunderstorms just north of our
forecast area early this morning. It along with other model
solutions initiate showers and thunderstorms generally along and
north of the interstate by mid afternoon with a track toward the
southeast through the remainder of the area during the evening.
Other concern will be fog both early this morning and again late
tonight. For this morning should see quite a bit of fog and may have
some dense fog generally south of a line from near Idalia to
goodland to parts of Gove county. For tonight it could be just about
anywhere in the area depending on how convection develops. High
temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...drier air in the 700-500mb layer moves in
for the daytime hours behind the prior nights convection. Have
removed all precipitation wording. For the evening and overnight
models fair agreement moving a weather disturbance south-southeast
across the area producing scattered thunderstorms. High temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Stratus and fog again possible late Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...more stable air along with drier air
aloft quickly moves in during the morning and continues through the
day and have again pulled all mention of precipitation. Models again
showing another weather disturbance moving south-southeast during
the evening and overnight hours bringing another chance for
thunderstorms. High temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s with low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The upper level pattern has not changed over the weekend, with the
same pattern of a trough over the eastern states and a ridge in the
western states. There is a trough beginning to move into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday and will continue to push east during the
extended period; which will eventually push the ridge east. The CWA
is still between the ridge and trough, which is creating a mid to
upper level northwest flow. That in association with 700 mb
shortwaves and favorable CAPE values, rain and storm chances will
continue through the period; with chances starting to decrease by
Sunday as the ridge begins to push east. The current model runs are
showing the best day for precipitation and storms to be Thursday,
primarily in the evening and overnight hours along the western
portions of the CWA. Friday has a similar set up as Thursday but the
more intense storm potential looks to be south of our CWA, yet
storms are still possible over the region. Saturday and Sunday could
see precipitation but with the ridge starting to move east the
greatest chances for storms will be east of the CWA. Temperatures
are expected to drop Friday into the upper 70s and low 80s but will
increase back into the mid 80s and low 90s Saturday and Sunday with
the ridge pushing east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

KGLD...ifr/vlifr cigs with possibly visibility restrictions in
fog from taf issuance through approximately 13z-14z. Quite a bit
of sun with southeast winds around 10kts from 15z through 18z.
After 18z thunderstorm chances slowly increase with the best
chance of impacting the terminal from 22z-05z. Main threats will
be large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. After
06z precipitation threat should be south of the terminal. Will
have to watch for return of abundant boundary layer moisture which
may create ifr/vlifr cigs and possibly some fog.

KMCK...vfr conditions expected through much of the period.
Thunderstorm chances slowly increase after about 20z with the best
chance of impacting the terminal in the 21z-04z timeframe. Main
threats will be large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall. After about 05z precipitation threat should be south of
the terminal. Similar to KGLD low level moisture increases and may
result in ifr/vlifr cigs and vis after 06z.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KTOP 270906
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
406 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Early this morning the mid-level trough axis was centered just north
of the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the cold front that had
tracked across the forecast area yesterday was stretched across
southeast Kansas and was providing enough lift to support some
scattered showers and isolated storms along the
Kansas/Oklahoma/Missouri state borders.  Early morning dewpoints
were in the mid/upper 60s with temperatures cooling into the upper
60s/near 70 degrees, resulting in a moist environment present across
the area.  While some mid/high clouds were present across far
eastern Kansas, satellite imagery showed some breaks in the cloud
cover that, along with light or calm winds, may help to support some
patchy fog development around sunrise across the outlook area.

Early this morning another cold front was located near the South
Dakota/Nebraska border. Models show an embedded shortwave developing
along the western edge of the mid-level trough axis, and this
shortwave should help to push this cold front southward across
Nebraska today and near the Kansas/Nebraska border tonight. Expect
dry conditions during much of the daytime hours as the area becomes
wedged between the two cold fronts, with high temperatures topping
out in the low 90s.  Expect increasing precipitation chances late
afternoon into this evening across north central and far northern
Kansas with the approaching cold front. With little to no cap in
place and decent mid-level lapse rates, expect enough
destabilization to occur this afternoon across north central and
northern Kansas to result in 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE. These
conditions combined with 30-40kts of 0-6km shear should support some
scattered thunderstorm development along the cold front. However,
there is still some uncertainty with regards to the coverage of
thunderstorm development across north central and far northern
Kansas as some models suggest that the best forcing may be focused
west of the forecast area.  Regardless, with these environmental
conditions in place, any storms that develop will have the potential
to become strong to severe with the main hazards being strong winds
and hail. Due to the uncertainty in the coverage of any thunderstorm
development, only have slight to chance PoPs in at this time for
tonight into Tuesday morning across north central and far northeast
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The long term temperature forecast remains consistent with the
expected cooler temperature influx. Highs each day will be mainly
in the 80s, with some reliance and fluctuation based on any
daytime precipitation and related overnight could cover. All-in-
all, a period of relative consistency is expected for Tuesday
through next weekend.

This period of the forecast will also be impacted by multiple
short wave troughs moving through the relatively fast northwest
flow pattern that will set up overhead. The northwest flow will be
rather persistent through around Sunday or Monday when a shift
toward a more zonal pattern appears likely. Until that time,
expect multiple chances for thunderstorms on an almost daily and
nightly basis. Will focus on a few specific periods that perhaps
garner more interest from an impact and confidence perspective.

First, have added precip chances in northern Kansas on Tuesday
morning as a back door frontal boundary moves into the area from
the northeast. There is a strong model signal that the front will
interact with modest elevated instability to support scattered
thunderstorm development by sunrise on Tuesday, probably
diminishing as it builds to the south during the morning hours.
The rest of Tuesday into Tuesday evening will probably be dry.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely feature an MCS
developing over Nebraska and then building into Kansas as a strong
short wave and jet max moves across the region. There is a high
confidence in this convection developing, but a bit lower
confidence regarding the location and timing. The NAM/GFS are in
one camp in developing a forward propagating MCS Tuesday night
in NE and bringing it into KS by sunrise while other guidance such
as the ECMWF and Canadian models develop the convection a bit
farther east in Nebraska and bring it south into the area during
the day on Wednesday. Regardless of the specific details, western
parts of the forecast area seem to have the best combination of
shear and instability to support any risk of severe storms...and
MCS maintenance would seem to be more favored in those areas as
well so have continued to focus higher pops in western zones.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning shows a strong signal for
low level jet convergence and moisture flux convergence into
central and east central KS. Instability and effective shear are
not particularly impressive, but a relatively stationary
initiation zone and SREF pwat values in excess of 1.5 inches
suggest locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Widespread height falls and a boundary in the vicinity on Friday
and the likely passage of a stronger short wave trough aloft on
Saturday point to continued thunderstorm chances into the weekend
although details are less certain at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

There may be some ground fog developing at the terminals through
the early morning hours. However, cirrus moving northeast from
south central KS may cause just enough cloud cover that KTOP
terminal may not drop down to 1 mile or less. If the cirrus thins
out and skies remain clear then there is a chance for patchy dense
fog at KTOP and possibly KFOE and KMHK. Due to the uncertainty in
cloud cover I only dropped visibilities down to 4SM at KTOP and
5SM at KFOE and KMHK. After 13Z expect VFR conditions with only
an isolated thunderstorm possible across the terminals Monday
evening.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270850
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
350 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The southwest KS region was precipitation free as of 0630 UTC and is
expected to continue this way through the remainder of the night.
The small mesoscale convective system (MCS) over southwest Nebraska
continued to weaken as it approached the KS border. Much of
southwest Kansas had surface winds less than 8 mph with mid to upper
60s dewpoints, especially along the Arkansas River valley into
northwest Oklahoma. The mostly clear sky, light winds, and
temperature-dewpoint spreads at a couple of degrees will likely
foster development of ground fog. Just about all the short-term high
resolution models show a corridor of 1/4 mile visibility across
southwest Kansas, and confidence is high enough to include a few
hours of fog in the grids centered around sunrise. Any fog will burn
off quickly with a southeast wind developing. It will not be all
that strong, generally 12 mph or less.

Zonal west-northwest flow in the mid-troposphere across Wyoming into
western Nebraska and northern Colorado will continue. This will lead
to lower leeside pressure and a low level convergence zone setting
up across northeast Colorado and adjacent southwest Nebraska. Severe
local storms will likely develop in this convergence axis by late
afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear, some help from a minor
disturbance in the mid level flow pattern, low level moisture, and
low level inflow will all aid in the development of another MCS in
this region. After some late day mixing of moisture across far
western Kansas, there should be another surge of low level moisture
northwest toward the MCS around or shortly after sunset. This should
aid on the maintenance of an MCS into western Kansas after dark.
POPs were increased to Likely (60-70 percent) across much of
southwest Kansas given high enough confidence in an MCS making it
into our region late in the night. If there is any severe weather
with the MCS, it will be early on, and primarily along the I-70
corridor. The MCS should begin to dissolve in the 09-12Z time frame,
as the boundary layer becomes too stable and the MCS moves away from
the quality upper level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The advertised wet pattern is still on track through this Long Term
period. The latest global spectral model solutions continue to
indicate that flat ridging will prevail from roughly West Texas
through the Four Corners region. West-northwesterly mid-upper
tropospheric flow will be the name of the game throughout the
entirety of this time period. There will be little nuances in the
flow regime that will dictate timing, location, and strength of the
daily/nightly MCSs which will no doubt be a common theme in this
pattern across the western/central Great Plains. This makes the POP
forecast difficult, and it is probably best to just keep 30-50 POPs
going for just about every period (especially the night periods) and
try not to get too cute with sub-period (12-hr) POP evolutions, as
the skill in timing/placement of these MCSs is simply not good
beyond Day 2. All we really feel pretty good about is that there
will be MCSs almost daily/nightly affecting some portion of the
western half of Kansas.

By the end of this forecast period (4th of July), many locations
will see precipitation totals exceeding 3 inches, with a smattering
of 5+ inches possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

There will be a couple hours of dense ground fog development at GCK
and DDC given the light winds, mostly clear sky, and dewpoints in
the upper 60s. Any fog should burn off shortly after sunrise. Winds
will remain fairly light, even through the daytime hours at 12 knots
or less. Thunderstorms will move into the region late tonight toward
the end of this TAF period, however confidence in timing, placement
are too high to include in this TAF. They will likely be needed to
be put in at the next TAF update at 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  67  87  66 /  10  60  30  30
GCK  90  65  88  66 /  20  60  20  20
EHA  90  65  88  66 /  10  30  20  20
LBL  92  66  88  66 /  10  50  30  20
HYS  89  65  87  65 /  20  60  20  50
P28  92  70  89  66 /  20  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KICT 270805
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough tracking across
eastern Ontario with a much weaker impulse sliding across ND.
Meanwhile, upper ridging stretches from the southwest CONUS into
the southern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front extends from
the western Great Lakes, through MN and across southern SD

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Best guess on what is keeping storms around early this morning
would be some kind of remnant MCV from last nights convection
combined with some weak mid level moisture transport. Will keep
with the thinking that this activity will continue to slowly push
south this morning, exiting KS by around 15z.

Moist airmass will remain in place today with below normal mid
level temps resulting in plenty of instability. However, lack of
surface focus should limit daytime convective development. Higher
chances for storms today will be over western Nebraska/northeast
CO/NW KS where the western edge of a cold front will combine with
good upslope processes. This activity is expected to dive
south/southeast overnight, affecting mainly the western half of
KS. Therefore, will carry the highest pops tonight generally west
of I-135.

The same basic scenario looks to play out for Tue into Tue night,
with daytime convection chances remaining minimal with much better
chances over western Nebraska. This area of convection will again
dive south and southeast Tue night, getting into the northern
fringes of the forecast area after midnight. This activity looks
more robust compared to what the storms tonight should be due to
stronger mid/upper flow. In addition, 850-700mb moisture transport
is stronger which should allow this mcs to persist longer,
possibly tracking through south central KS Wed.

Confidence is high that temps will be closer to normal with highs
through Wed around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

NW flow is expected to persist across the Plains through the work
week as it starts to flatten out to start the weekend. This will
keep modest rain chances in through these extended periods. With
surface features to key on at a minimum, the most likely scenario
for storm development will be weak impulses tracking out of the
Rockies and desert SW. There is some model agreement that a series
of these upper features will move out across the Plains Thu night
through Fri night. Confidence is high in below normal temps
through these extended periods with highs mostly in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widely scattered showers continue to linger across portions of
South Central and Southeast KS while VFR prevails at all terminals.
The general trend will continue to be a decrease in activity as we
move through the night although a few storms could impact
KICT...KHUT or KCNU through 09-10z. There may be a transient
period of MVFR visibilities after 10-11z given moist soil
conditions and light winds with narrow T/TD depressions across
much of Southern Kansas...however this should be short-lived with
VFR returning shortly after 12-13z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    92  71  90  68 /  10  20  10  20
Hutchinson      91  70  89  67 /  10  30  10  30
Newton          92  70  89  66 /  10  20  10  20
ElDorado        92  70  89  66 /  10  20  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   92  71  90  68 /  20  20  10  10
Russell         92  68  89  66 /  20  50  20  50
Great Bend      91  68  89  66 /  20  60  20  50
Salina          93  70  89  66 /  20  30  10  30
McPherson       91  69  89  66 /  20  20  10  30
Coffeyville     92  70  91  67 /  30  10  10  10
Chanute         91  70  90  66 /  20  10  10  10
Iola            91  70  89  65 /  20  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    92  70  90  66 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270805
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
205 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Have updated the forecast to adjust pops for the area based on
latest radar trends. Currently with boundary extending from NE
Colorado up into western portions of Nebraska...only a few
isolated showers/storms are developing at this time. Model trends
look to keep most/all activity for the rest of the evening over
northern and western zones w/ a transition to mainly northern tier
zones by 12z Monday...should any remain. Also made some slight
adjustments to clouds cover as a result...with no other changes at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and severe
weather through tomorrow. Satellite showing a nearly flat flow over
the northern portion of the country and a broad ridge with embedded
shortwave details.

Not sure how tonight is going to pan out. Currently having cumulus
field develop over northern half of the area with the best
development along the Kansas and Nebraska border. Morning convection
laid down an outflow boundary currently over/near the northeastern
portion of the area. This is in addition to a weak surface trough
that was draped over the southeastern portion of the area. However,
that appears to have moved south a little or washed out.

Shear zone/weak shortwave that was near/over the eastern portion of
the area has moved east a little with the deepest moisture
associated with it. So despite the best moisture and instability it
has the least amount of lift. To account for this area will have a
slight chance through mid evening.

The more substantial area of thunderstorms will be over the northern
and western portion with the models not completely agreeing on where.
Weaker shortwave and surface trough are near or approaching this
area. The main lift from these looks to be over the northern and
western sections into the middle of the night. Kept the general idea
the overnight shift had and made adjustments on timing. With high
bases and Dcape values would expect that we could get damaging winds.

Looks to be an interesting/active weather day tomorrow. Mid level
ridge shifts further south and west bringing to the area stronger
but still weaker northwest flow aloft. A shortwave trough approaches
the area from the northwest. Not sure about the surface pattern. It
looks like the old front stays to the south and west of the area due
to a stronger lee trough. It appears that another front is also
coming down at the same time. However you slice it looks to have
easterly surface flow under northwest flow aloft.

Models generate a cluster of thunderstorms but models differ but
differ on onset and locations affected initially although the
certainty of getting not only getting thunderstorms and severe
weather appears pretty high due to the amount of shear and
instability. At this time will have rather high chance with severe
wording in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The upper level pattern has not changed over the weekend, with the
same pattern of a trough over the eastern states and a ridge in the
western states. There is a trough beginning to move into the Pacific
Northwest Thursday and will continue to push east during the
extended period; which will eventually push the ridge east. The CWA
is still between the ridge and trough, which is creating a mid to
upper level northwest flow. That in association with 700 mb
shortwaves and favorable CAPE values, rain and storm chances will
continue through the period; with chances starting to decrease by
Sunday as the ridge begins to push east. The current model runs are
showing the best day for precipitation and storms to be Thursday,
primarily in the evening and overnight hours along the western
portions of the CWA. Friday has a similar set up as Thursday but the
more intense storm potential looks to be south of our CWA, yet
storms are still possible over the region. Saturday and Sunday could
see precipitation but with the ridge starting to move east the
greatest chances for storms will be east of the CWA. Temperatures
are expected to drop Friday into the upper 70s and low 80s but will
increase back into the mid 80s and low 90s Saturday and Sunday with
the ridge pushing east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

For both taf sites...mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast
period. VCSH/VCTS thru 09z especially for KMCK where gusts could
reach 25 to 35 kts. By 00z Tuesday VFR/MVFR mix as trw/rw occurs
with 4-5sm in rain with ceilings bkn060. Winds generally ranging
from ESE to S thru the forecast period from 10-20kts.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270704
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
204 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The southwest KS region was precipitation free as of 0630 UTC and is
expected to continue this way through the remainder of the night.
The small mesoscale convective system (MCS) over southwest Nebraska
continued to weaken as it approached the KS border. Much of
southwest Kansas had surface winds less than 8 mph with mid to upper
60s dewpoints, especially along the Arkansas River valley into
northwest Oklahoma. The mostly clear sky, light winds, and
temperature-dewpoint spreads at a couple of degrees will likely
foster development of ground fog. Just about all the short-term high
resolution models show a corridor of 1/4 mile visibility across
southwest Kansas, and confidence is high enough to include a few
hours of fog in the grids centered around sunrise. Any fog will burn
off quickly with a southeast wind developing. It will not be all
that strong, generally 12 mph or less.

Zonal west-northwest flow in the mid-troposphere across Wyoming into
western Nebraska and northern Colorado will continue. This will lead
to lower leeside pressure and a low level convergence zone setting
up across northeast Colorado and adjacent southwest Nebraska. Severe
local storms will likely develop in this convergence axis by late
afternoon. Sufficient deep layer shear, some help from a minor
disturbance in the mid level flow pattern, low level moisture, and
low level inflow will all aid in the development of another MCS in
this region. After some late day mixing of moisture across far
western Kansas, there should be another surge of low level moisture
northwest toward the MCS around or shortly after sunset. This should
aid on the maintenance of an MCS into western Kansas after dark.
POPs were increased to Likely (60-70 percent) across much of
southwest Kansas given high enough confidence in an MCS making it
into our region late in the night. If there is any severe weather
with the MCS, it will be early on, and primarily along the I-70
corridor. The MCS should begin to dissolve in the 09-12Z time frame,
as the boundary layer becomes too stable and the MCS moves away from
the quality upper level winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorm chances will exist nearly each day through the latter
part of the week as upper level ridging builds across the
Intermountain West, setting up a northwesterly flow aloft across
the Western High Plains. As a prevailing southeasterly upslope
flow continues to draw low level moisture into Kansas, a series of
H5 vort maxima will cycle off the ridge axis into the high plains
during the period setting the stage for diurnally driven
thunderstorm development lee of the front range late each day.
The focus for thunderstorms Monday will be in an area of increased
lift in the vicinity of a developing frontal boundary expected to
extend northeast off a surface low in the Colorado Rockies into
western Nebraska. Storms are likely to drift off the higher
terrain into western Kansas Monday evening. Although typical
damaging wind gusts and some damaging hail may play a role, the
potential for locally heavy rainfall will also exist considering
the amount of available moisture present. This could lead to
localized flooding issues, especially for areas already receiving
rainfall the past few days. This pattern is forecast to persist
through the rest of the week setting up portions of western and
central Kansas for additional periods of appreciable rainfall.

Temperatures are expected to remain fairly seasonal across the
Western High Plains through mid week as southeast upslope flow
persists across western Kansas through much of the time frame with
periods of rainfall and increased cloud cover also contributing
factors. Highs generally in the 80s(F) to near 90F can be expected
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

There will be a couple hours of dense ground fog development at GCK
and DDC given the light winds, mostly clear sky, and dewpoints in
the upper 60s. Any fog should burn off shortly after sunrise. Winds
will remain fairly light, even through the daytime hours at 12 knots
or less. Thunderstorms will move into the region late tonight toward
the end of this TAF period, however confidence in timing, placement
are too high to include in this TAF. They will likely be needed to
be put in at the next TAF update at 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  66  87  66 /  10  40  20  30
GCK  90  66  88  66 /  20  40  10  30
EHA  90  65  88  66 /  10  40  10  20
LBL  92  66  88  66 /  10  40  10  20
HYS  89  66  87  65 /  20  50  20  50
P28  92  69  89  66 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270534
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1134 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Have updated the forecast to adjust pops for the area based on
latest radar trends. Currently with boundary extending from NE
Colorado up into western portions of Nebraska...only a few
isolated showers/storms are developing at this time. Model trends
look to keep most/all activity for the rest of the evening over
northern and western zones w/ a transition to mainly northern tier
zones by 12z Monday...should any remain. Also made some slight
adjustments to clouds cover as a result...with no other changes at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and severe
weather through tomorrow. Satellite showing a nearly flat flow over
the northern portion of the country and a broad ridge with embedded
shortwave details.

Not sure how tonight is going to pan out. Currently having cumulus
field develop over northern half of the area with the best
development along the Kansas and Nebraska border. Morning convection
laid down an outflow boundary currently over/near the northeastern
portion of the area. This is in addition to a weak surface trough
that was draped over the southeastern portion of the area. However,
that appears to have moved south a little or washed out.

Shear zone/weak shortwave that was near/over the eastern portion of
the area has moved east a little with the deepest moisture
associated with it. So despite the best moisture and instability it
has the least amount of lift. To account for this area will have a
slight chance through mid evening.

The more substantial area of thunderstorms will be over the northern
and western portion with the models not completely agreeing on where.
Weaker shortwave and surface trough are near or approaching this
area. The main lift from these looks to be over the northern and
western sections into the middle of the night. Kept the general idea
the overnight shift had and made adjustments on timing. With high
bases and Dcape values would expect that we could get damaging winds.

Looks to be an interesting/active weather day tomorrow. Mid level
ridge shifts further south and west bringing to the area stronger
but still weaker northwest flow aloft. A shortwave trough approaches
the area from the northwest. Not sure about the surface pattern. It
looks like the old front stays to the south and west of the area due
to a stronger lee trough. It appears that another front is also
coming down at the same time. However you slice it looks to have
easterly surface flow under northwest flow aloft.

Models generate a cluster of thunderstorms but models differ but
differ on onset and locations affected initially although the
certainty of getting not only getting thunderstorms and severe
weather appears pretty high due to the amount of shear and
instability. At this time will have rather high chance with severe
wording in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be sliding southeast across the area Monday
night associated with a shortwave trough coming out of the central
Rockies. Best chances will be in the southeastern part of the area
in the evening becoming scattered and mainly south of Interstate
70 after midnight.

The upper pattern changes very little the rest of the upcoming
week. A ridge will be centered near the Four Corners and trough
near the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the central
plains. Embedded weak shortwave troughs will result in daily
thunderstorm chances. Latest model output suggest heavy rain
possible late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning across eastern
areas (east of Highway 25) and again on Thursday night, but across
western and southern areas. Pops have increased substantially
during those time periods. A subtle pattern change over the
weekend to more of a zonal flow aloft as the ridge in the west
weakens and the axis moves into the central plains may result in
a decrease in coverage of storms during that time. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

For both taf sites...mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast
period. VCSH/VCTS thru 09z especially for KMCK where gusts could
reach 25 to 35 kts. By 00z Tuesday VFR/MVFR mix as trw/rw occurs
with 4-5sm in rain with ceilings bkn060. Winds generally ranging
from ESE to S thru the forecast period from 10-20kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 270455
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1155 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A weak circulation now moving across central KS will support sct t-
storm activity through sunset across those areas south of I-70 with
a gradual decrease thereafter. Expect most areas should be dry after
midnight with decreasing clouds and light winds.  This may lead to
patch fog development which would end up being more of an aviation
issue so will have to monitor that overnight.  Otherwise...weak
pressure gradient will become southeast on Monday as an upper wave
moves southeast in the developing northwest flow regime.  Best
thetae advection and instability gradient should remain west of the
area so will keep only low chcs for t-storms across the far west
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Overall have not made many changes to the previous forecast. Area
still appears to be on the eastern edge of potential MCS activity
Monday night and Tuesday night into early Wednesday. South to
southeast low level winds keep relatively high moisture into the
High Plains with rapidly decreasing inflow and instability from
central to eastern Kansas. Still some potential for strong winds
with these complexes with hail and flooding rains unlikely. With
somewhat higher confidence in the bulk of this precip remaining to
the west, have nudged up most temps into the mid week. Another cold
front in northwest flow settles in for better widespread precip
chances in the Wednesday night to Thursday night periods. Upper
pattern shifts a bit Friday into Sunday with the eastern Canadian
trough pushing east and modest upper ridging moving into the Plains.
This should bring a warming trend and less opportunity for precip
with time, though at this point changes do look gradual.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

There may be some ground fog developing at the terminals through
the early morning hours. However, cirrus moving northeast from
south central KS may cause just enough cloud cover that KTOP
terminal may not drop down to 1 mile or less. If the cirrus thins
out and skies remain clear then there is a chance for patchy dense
fog at KTOP and possibly KFOE and KMHK. Due to the uncertainty in
cloud cover I only dropped visibilities down to 4SM at KTOP and
5SM at KFOE and KMHK. After 13Z expect VFR conditions with only
an isolated thunderstorm possible across the terminals Monday
evening.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KICT 270447
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1147 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main issue will be precipitation chances through the forecast.

A nearly stationary/diffuse boundary will stretch ENE across the
southern half of the forecast area this evening. With ample
afternoon heating, the boundary, and plenty of potential energy,
storms into the evening south of highway 50 could be severe. Those
storms that develop or move north of the boundary should remain
below severe limits but will produce heavy rainsfor those
locations that experience storms.

A chance for lingering showers and weak thunderstorms will continue
into Monday morning in the vicinity of the boundary before dying off
by the afternoon hours. With an upper ridge in place over the
desert southwest, northwest flow will occur across the western two
thirds of the forecast area. Both the NAM and GFS develop MCS`s in
Nebraska and slide them SSE across our forecast area. This is
where is gets tricky. The NAM is faster and further west, while
the GFS is slower and further east. For now, I will hedge for a
compromise between the two. What this means will be decent chances
for storms and heavy rains overnight Monday and Tuesday. The
storms and precipitation are more likely Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Isolated rain amounts over 1.5 inches will be possible,
mainly west of the Flint Hills. Severe potential beyond this
evening will be limited to lower end criteria. Only exception
might be overnight Tuesday in the form of winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Precipitation remains the main issue for this portion of the
forecast as well. The nearly stationary/diffuse boundary that will
plague the area for the early portions of the forecast period will
meander just south of KS. The upper NW flow will also continue
with weaker impulses ejecting across the forecast area each night.
These two culprits will produce just enough lift to warrant
thunder chances in virtually every period of the forecast. With
decent precipitable water values in the southern half, very heavy
rains will be likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Widely scattered showers continue to linger across portions of
South Central and Southeast KS while VFR prevails at all terminals.
The general trend will continue to be a decrease in activity as we
move through the night although a few storms could impact
KICT...KHUT or KCNU through 09-10z. There may be a transient
period of MVFR visibilities after 10-11z given moist soil
conditions and light winds with narrow T/TD depressions across
much of Southern Kansas...however this should be short-lived with
VFR returning shortly after 12-13z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  91  70  89 /  40  30  30  10
Hutchinson      68  91  68  88 /  40  30  30  10
Newton          69  90  68  88 /  40  40  30  10
ElDorado        69  90  69  88 /  40  30  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   71  91  70  89 /  50  30  30  10
Russell         67  91  66  88 /  20  30  40  10
Great Bend      67  91  66  89 /  30  30  40  10
Salina          68  92  68  89 /  30  30  30  10
McPherson       68  91  68  88 /  30  30  30  10
Coffeyville     71  91  68  89 /  50  40  20  10
Chanute         70  91  67  88 /  50  30  20  10
Iola            70  91  67  87 /  50  30  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  91  68  88 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWH
LONG TERM...CWH
AVIATION...MWM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270130
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
730 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Have updated the forecast to adjust pops for the area based on
latest radar trends. Currently with boundary extending from NE
Colorado up into western portions of Nebraska...only a few
isolated showers/storms are developing at this time. Model trends
look to keep most/all activity for the rest of the evening over
northern and western zones w/ a transition to mainly northern tier
zones by 12z Monday...should any remain. Also made some slight
adjustments to clouds cover as a result...with no other changes at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and severe
weather through tomorrow. Satellite showing a nearly flat flow over
the northern portion of the country and a broad ridge with embedded
shortwave details.

Not sure how tonight is going to pan out. Currently having cumulus
field develop over northern half of the area with the best
development along the Kansas and Nebraska border. Morning convection
laid down an outflow boundary currently over/near the northeastern
portion of the area. This is in addition to a weak surface trough
that was draped over the southeastern portion of the area. However,
that appears to have moved south a little or washed out.

Shear zone/weak shortwave that was near/over the eastern portion of
the area has moved east a little with the deepest moisture
associated with it. So despite the best moisture and instability it
has the least amount of lift. To account for this area will have a
slight chance through mid evening.

The more substantial area of thunderstorms will be over the northern
and western portion with the models not completely agreeing on where.
Weaker shortwave and surface trough are near or approaching this
area. The main lift from these looks to be over the northern and
western sections into the middle of the night. Kept the general idea
the overnight shift had and made adjustments on timing. With high
bases and Dcape values would expect that we could get damaging winds.

Looks to be an interesting/active weather day tomorrow. Mid level
ridge shifts further south and west bringing to the area stronger
but still weaker northwest flow aloft. A shortwave trough approaches
the area from the northwest. Not sure about the surface pattern. It
looks like the old front stays to the south and west of the area due
to a stronger lee trough. It appears that another front is also
coming down at the same time. However you slice it looks to have
easterly surface flow under northwest flow aloft.

Models generate a cluster of thunderstorms but models differ but
differ on onset and locations affected initially although the
certainty of getting not only getting thunderstorms and severe
weather appears pretty high due to the amount of shear and
instability. At this time will have rather high chance with severe
wording in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be sliding southeast across the area Monday
night associated with a shortwave trough coming out of the central
Rockies. Best chances will be in the southeastern part of the area
in the evening becoming scattered and mainly south of Interstate
70 after midnight.

The upper pattern changes very little the rest of the upcoming
week. A ridge will be centered near the Four Corners and trough
near the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the central
plains. Embedded weak shortwave troughs will result in daily
thunderstorm chances. Latest model output suggest heavy rain
possible late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning across eastern
areas (east of Highway 25) and again on Thursday night, but across
western and southern areas. Pops have increased substantially
during those time periods. A subtle pattern change over the
weekend to more of a zonal flow aloft as the ridge in the west
weakens and the axis moves into the central plains may result in
a decrease in coverage of storms during that time. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Conditions...VFR...with scattered mid/high clouds.

Precip/Wx....None at this time. Thunderstorms may develop in the
vicinity later tonight for both sites that may require further
updates. the time frame for possibility will range from approx
02z-09z Monday. Low confidence at this time to add in anything in
lower category for now for visibility...etc.

Winds........For KGLD...SSE around 10 kts w/ gusts to 20 kts thru
0230z Monday. By 12z Monday...ESE around 10 kts. For KMCK...SE around
10 kts thru 09z Monday...then Light/Variable thru 14z Monday
before becoming E around 10 kts.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 262335
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
635 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A weak circulation now moving across central KS will support sct t-
storm activity through sunset across those areas south of I-70 with
a gradual decrease thereafter. Expect most areas should be dry after
midnight with decreasing clouds and light winds.  This may lead to
patch fog development which would end up being more of an aviation
issue so will have to monitor that overnight.  Otherwise...weak
pressure gradient will become southeast on Monday as an upper wave
moves southeast in the developing northwest flow regime.  Best
thetae advection and instability gradient should remain west of the
area so will keep only low chcs for t-storms across the far west
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Overall have not made many changes to the previous forecast. Area
still appears to be on the eastern edge of potential MCS activity
Monday night and Tuesday night into early Wednesday. South to
southeast low level winds keep relatively high moisture into the
High Plains with rapidly decreasing inflow and instability from
central to eastern Kansas. Still some potential for strong winds
with these complexes with hail and flooding rains unlikely. With
somewhat higher confidence in the bulk of this precip remaining to
the west, have nudged up most temps into the mid week. Another cold
front in northwest flow settles in for better widespread precip
chances in the Wednesday night to Thursday night periods. Upper
pattern shifts a bit Friday into Sunday with the eastern Canadian
trough pushing east and modest upper ridging moving into the Plains.
This should bring a warming trend and less opportunity for precip
with time, though at this point changes do look gradual.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected through evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorms continue to develop across Eastern Kansas. As of
630PM, a thunderstorm was heading in the direction of TOP and FOE.
Currently have -TSRA between 00 and 01Z. Skies will clear later
this evening/overnight. This coupled with light winds should allow
for the formation of ground fog. Currently have MVFR visibilities
at all terminals between 10 and 12Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KTOP 262335
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
635 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A weak circulation now moving across central KS will support sct t-
storm activity through sunset across those areas south of I-70 with
a gradual decrease thereafter. Expect most areas should be dry after
midnight with decreasing clouds and light winds.  This may lead to
patch fog development which would end up being more of an aviation
issue so will have to monitor that overnight.  Otherwise...weak
pressure gradient will become southeast on Monday as an upper wave
moves southeast in the developing northwest flow regime.  Best
thetae advection and instability gradient should remain west of the
area so will keep only low chcs for t-storms across the far west
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Overall have not made many changes to the previous forecast. Area
still appears to be on the eastern edge of potential MCS activity
Monday night and Tuesday night into early Wednesday. South to
southeast low level winds keep relatively high moisture into the
High Plains with rapidly decreasing inflow and instability from
central to eastern Kansas. Still some potential for strong winds
with these complexes with hail and flooding rains unlikely. With
somewhat higher confidence in the bulk of this precip remaining to
the west, have nudged up most temps into the mid week. Another cold
front in northwest flow settles in for better widespread precip
chances in the Wednesday night to Thursday night periods. Upper
pattern shifts a bit Friday into Sunday with the eastern Canadian
trough pushing east and modest upper ridging moving into the Plains.
This should bring a warming trend and less opportunity for precip
with time, though at this point changes do look gradual.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected through evening hours. Isolated
thunderstorms continue to develop across Eastern Kansas. As of
630PM, a thunderstorm was heading in the direction of TOP and FOE.
Currently have -TSRA between 00 and 01Z. Skies will clear later
this evening/overnight. This coupled with light winds should allow
for the formation of ground fog. Currently have MVFR visibilities
at all terminals between 10 and 12Z.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Baerg




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262332
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
532 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and severe
weather through tomorrow. Satellite showing a nearly flat flow over
the northern portion of the country and a broad ridge with embedded
shortwave details.

Not sure how tonight is going to pan out. Currently having cumulus
field develop over northern half of the area with the best
development along the Kansas and Nebraska border. Morning convection
laid down an outflow boundary currently over/near the northeastern
portion of the area. This is in addition to a weak surface trough
that was draped over the southeastern portion of the area. However,
that appears to have moved south a little or washed out.

Shear zone/weak shortwave that was near/over the eastern portion of
the area has moved east a little with the deepest moisture
associated with it. So despite the best moisture and instability it
has the least amount of lift. To account for this area will have a
slight chance through mid evening.

The more substantial area of thunderstorms will be over the northern
and western portion with the models not completely agreeing on where.
Weaker shortwave and surface trough are near or approaching this
area. The main lift from these looks to be over the northern and
western sections into the middle of the night. Kept the general idea
the overnight shift had and made adjustments on timing. With high
bases and Dcape values would expect that we could get damaging winds.

Looks to be an interesting/active weather day tomorrow. Mid level
ridge shifts further south and west bringing to the area stronger
but still weaker northwest flow aloft. A shortwave trough approaches
the area from the northwest. Not sure about the surface pattern. It
looks like the old front stays to the south and west of the area due
to a stronger lee trough. It appears that another front is also
coming down at the same time. However you slice it looks to have
easterly surface flow under northwest flow aloft.

Models generate a cluster of thunderstorms but models differ but
differ on onset and locations affected initially although the
certainty of getting not only getting thunderstorms and severe
weather appears pretty high due to the amount of shear and
instability. At this time will have rather high chance with severe
wording in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be sliding southeast across the area Monday
night associated with a shortwave trough coming out of the central
Rockies. Best chances will be in the southeastern part of the area
in the evening becoming scattered and mainly south of Interstate
70 after midnight.

The upper pattern changes very little the rest of the upcoming
week. A ridge will be centered near the Four Corners and trough
near the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the central
plains. Embedded weak shortwave troughs will result in daily
thunderstorm chances. Latest model output suggest heavy rain
possible late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning across eastern
areas (east of Highway 25) and again on Thursday night, but across
western and southern areas. Pops have increased substantially
during those time periods. A subtle pattern change over the
weekend to more of a zonal flow aloft as the ridge in the west
weakens and the axis moves into the central plains may result in
a decrease in coverage of storms during that time. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Conditions...VFR...with scattered mid/high clouds.

Precip/Wx....None at this time. Thunderstorms may develop in the
vicinity later tonight for both sites that may require further
updates. the time frame for possibility will range from approx
02z-09z Monday. Low confidence at this time to add in anything in
lower category for now for visibility...etc.

Winds........For KGLD...SSE around 10 kts w/ gusts to 20 kts thru
0230z Monday. By 12z Monday...ESE around 10 kts. For KMCK...SE around
10 kts thru 09z Monday...then Light/Variable thru 14z Monday
before becoming E around 10 kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262332
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
532 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and severe
weather through tomorrow. Satellite showing a nearly flat flow over
the northern portion of the country and a broad ridge with embedded
shortwave details.

Not sure how tonight is going to pan out. Currently having cumulus
field develop over northern half of the area with the best
development along the Kansas and Nebraska border. Morning convection
laid down an outflow boundary currently over/near the northeastern
portion of the area. This is in addition to a weak surface trough
that was draped over the southeastern portion of the area. However,
that appears to have moved south a little or washed out.

Shear zone/weak shortwave that was near/over the eastern portion of
the area has moved east a little with the deepest moisture
associated with it. So despite the best moisture and instability it
has the least amount of lift. To account for this area will have a
slight chance through mid evening.

The more substantial area of thunderstorms will be over the northern
and western portion with the models not completely agreeing on where.
Weaker shortwave and surface trough are near or approaching this
area. The main lift from these looks to be over the northern and
western sections into the middle of the night. Kept the general idea
the overnight shift had and made adjustments on timing. With high
bases and Dcape values would expect that we could get damaging winds.

Looks to be an interesting/active weather day tomorrow. Mid level
ridge shifts further south and west bringing to the area stronger
but still weaker northwest flow aloft. A shortwave trough approaches
the area from the northwest. Not sure about the surface pattern. It
looks like the old front stays to the south and west of the area due
to a stronger lee trough. It appears that another front is also
coming down at the same time. However you slice it looks to have
easterly surface flow under northwest flow aloft.

Models generate a cluster of thunderstorms but models differ but
differ on onset and locations affected initially although the
certainty of getting not only getting thunderstorms and severe
weather appears pretty high due to the amount of shear and
instability. At this time will have rather high chance with severe
wording in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be sliding southeast across the area Monday
night associated with a shortwave trough coming out of the central
Rockies. Best chances will be in the southeastern part of the area
in the evening becoming scattered and mainly south of Interstate
70 after midnight.

The upper pattern changes very little the rest of the upcoming
week. A ridge will be centered near the Four Corners and trough
near the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the central
plains. Embedded weak shortwave troughs will result in daily
thunderstorm chances. Latest model output suggest heavy rain
possible late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning across eastern
areas (east of Highway 25) and again on Thursday night, but across
western and southern areas. Pops have increased substantially
during those time periods. A subtle pattern change over the
weekend to more of a zonal flow aloft as the ridge in the west
weakens and the axis moves into the central plains may result in
a decrease in coverage of storms during that time. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 532 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Conditions...VFR...with scattered mid/high clouds.

Precip/Wx....None at this time. Thunderstorms may develop in the
vicinity later tonight for both sites that may require further
updates. the time frame for possibility will range from approx
02z-09z Monday. Low confidence at this time to add in anything in
lower category for now for visibility...etc.

Winds........For KGLD...SSE around 10 kts w/ gusts to 20 kts thru
0230z Monday. By 12z Monday...ESE around 10 kts. For KMCK...SE around
10 kts thru 09z Monday...then Light/Variable thru 14z Monday
before becoming E around 10 kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 262324
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern portions
of southwest Kansas tonight even as the flow aloft remains fairly
weak across the Western High Plains. Short range models indicate
a frontal boundary just to our south remaining stalled out across
the northern Texas Panhandle eastward into extreme northern
Oklahoma this evening before generally washing out overnight while
a subsequent southeasterly upslope flow returns to western
Kansas. Considering an already weak cap present, ample
moisture/instability will be sufficient enough to support
thunderstorm development early this evening in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary, particularly across south central Kansas. The
weak flow aloft and less than favorable 0-6km shear will limit
severe potential to marginal levels at best with gusty winds the
primary concern. Additionally, PW values in excess of 1.5 inches
will continue to support the potential for periods of heavy
rainfall causing localized flooding. Low temperatures tonight will
drop back down into the 60s(F) tonight with little change to the
air mass across the high plains. Highs Monday will once again push
near 90F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorm chances will exist nearly each day through the latter
part of the week as upper level ridging builds across the
Intermountain West, setting up a northwesterly flow aloft across
the Western High Plains. As a prevailing southeasterly upslope
flow continues to draw low level moisture into Kansas, a series of
H5 vort maxima will cycle off the ridge axis into the high plains
during the period setting the stage for diurnally driven
thunderstorm development lee of the front range late each day.
The focus for thunderstorms Monday will be in an area of increased
lift in the vicinity of a developing frontal boundary expected to
extend northeast off a surface low in the Colorado Rockies into
western Nebraska. Storms are likely to drift off the higher
terrain into western Kansas Monday evening. Although typical
damaging wind gusts and some damaging hail may play a role, the
potential for locally heavy rainfall will also exist considering
the amount of available moisture present. This could lead to
localized flooding issues, especially for areas already receiving
rainfall the past few days. This pattern is forecast to persist
through the rest of the week setting up portions of western and
central Kansas for additional periods of appreciable rainfall.

Temperatures are expected to remain fairly seasonal across the
Western High Plains through mid week as southeast upslope flow
persists across western Kansas through much of the time frame with
periods of rainfall and increased cloud cover also contributing
factors. Highs generally in the 80s(F) to near 90F can be expected
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites through much of the
evening. With weak moist east southeasterly wind flow at the surface,
there is some potential for MVFR to possibly IFR visibilities. Look
for any visibility reductions to diminish after sunrise on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  90  66  87 /  20  30  40  20
GCK  65  89  66  88 /  10  30  40  10
EHA  65  89  65  88 /  10  30  40  10
LBL  67  90  66  88 /  10  30  40  10
HYS  67  90  66  87 /  10  40  50  20
P28  70  92  69  89 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard




000
FXUS63 KDDC 262324
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern portions
of southwest Kansas tonight even as the flow aloft remains fairly
weak across the Western High Plains. Short range models indicate
a frontal boundary just to our south remaining stalled out across
the northern Texas Panhandle eastward into extreme northern
Oklahoma this evening before generally washing out overnight while
a subsequent southeasterly upslope flow returns to western
Kansas. Considering an already weak cap present, ample
moisture/instability will be sufficient enough to support
thunderstorm development early this evening in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary, particularly across south central Kansas. The
weak flow aloft and less than favorable 0-6km shear will limit
severe potential to marginal levels at best with gusty winds the
primary concern. Additionally, PW values in excess of 1.5 inches
will continue to support the potential for periods of heavy
rainfall causing localized flooding. Low temperatures tonight will
drop back down into the 60s(F) tonight with little change to the
air mass across the high plains. Highs Monday will once again push
near 90F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorm chances will exist nearly each day through the latter
part of the week as upper level ridging builds across the
Intermountain West, setting up a northwesterly flow aloft across
the Western High Plains. As a prevailing southeasterly upslope
flow continues to draw low level moisture into Kansas, a series of
H5 vort maxima will cycle off the ridge axis into the high plains
during the period setting the stage for diurnally driven
thunderstorm development lee of the front range late each day.
The focus for thunderstorms Monday will be in an area of increased
lift in the vicinity of a developing frontal boundary expected to
extend northeast off a surface low in the Colorado Rockies into
western Nebraska. Storms are likely to drift off the higher
terrain into western Kansas Monday evening. Although typical
damaging wind gusts and some damaging hail may play a role, the
potential for locally heavy rainfall will also exist considering
the amount of available moisture present. This could lead to
localized flooding issues, especially for areas already receiving
rainfall the past few days. This pattern is forecast to persist
through the rest of the week setting up portions of western and
central Kansas for additional periods of appreciable rainfall.

Temperatures are expected to remain fairly seasonal across the
Western High Plains through mid week as southeast upslope flow
persists across western Kansas through much of the time frame with
periods of rainfall and increased cloud cover also contributing
factors. Highs generally in the 80s(F) to near 90F can be expected
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites through much of the
evening. With weak moist east southeasterly wind flow at the surface,
there is some potential for MVFR to possibly IFR visibilities. Look
for any visibility reductions to diminish after sunrise on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  90  66  87 /  20  30  40  20
GCK  65  89  66  88 /  10  30  40  10
EHA  65  89  65  88 /  10  30  40  10
LBL  67  90  66  88 /  10  30  40  10
HYS  67  90  66  87 /  10  40  50  20
P28  70  92  69  89 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262022
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
222 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main forecast issues will be chances of thunderstorms and severe
weather through tomorrow. Satellite showing a nearly flat flow over
the northern portion of the country and a broad ridge with embedded
shortwave details.

Not sure how tonight is going to pan out. Currently having cumulus
field develop over northern half of the area with the best
development along the Kansas and Nebraska border. Morning convection
laid down an outflow boundary currently over/near the northeastern
portion of the area. This is in addition to a weak surface trough
that was draped over the southeastern portion of the area. However,
that appears to have moved south a little or washed out.

Shear zone/weak shortwave that was near/over the eastern portion of
the area has moved east a little with the deepest moisture
associated with it. So despite the best moisture and instability it
has the least amount of lift. To account for this area will have a
slight chance through mid evening.

The more substantial area of thunderstorms will be over the northern
and western portion with the models not completely agreeing on where.
Weaker shortwave and surface trough are near or approaching this
area. The main lift from these looks to be over the northern and
western sections into the middle of the night. Kept the general idea
the overnight shift had and made adjustments on timing. With high
bases and Dcape values would expect that we could get damaging winds.

Looks to be an interesting/active weather day tomorrow. Mid level
ridge shifts further south and west bringing to the area stronger
but still weaker northwest flow aloft. A shortwave trough approaches
the area from the northwest. Not sure about the surface pattern. It
looks like the old front stays to the south and west of the area due
to a stronger lee trough. It appears that another front is also
coming down at the same time. However you slice it looks to have
easterly surface flow under northwest flow aloft.

Models generate a cluster of thunderstorms but models differ but
differ on onset and locations affected initially although the
certainty of getting not only getting thunderstorms and severe
weather appears pretty high due to the amount of shear and
instability. At this time will have rather high chance with severe
wording in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be sliding southeast across the area Monday
night associated with a shortwave trough coming out of the central
Rockies. Best chances will be in the southeastern part of the area
in the evening becoming scattered and mainly south of Interstate
70 after midnight.

The upper pattern changes very little the rest of the upcoming
week. A ridge will be centered near the Four Corners and trough
near the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the central
plains. Embedded weak shortwave troughs will result in daily
thunderstorm chances. Latest model output suggest heavy rain
possible late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning across eastern
areas (east of Highway 25) and again on Thursday night, but across
western and southern areas. Pops have increased substantially
during those time periods. A subtle pattern change over the
weekend to more of a zonal flow aloft as the ridge in the west
weakens and the axis moves into the central plains may result in
a decrease in coverage of storms during that time. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Timing and locations of thunderstorm development is uncertain
through tomorrow. At this time both sites vfr conditions are
expected unless one of the stronger storms affects the site.
South southeast to southeast of 10 to 15 knots with few gusts near
20 knots are expected through early this evening especially at
Kgld.

Due to the uncertainty mentioned above, chose to only mention vcts
at Kgld from 02z to 07z, and from 05z to 09z at Kmck. More
thunderstorms are expected tomorrow with an onset very near or
slightly after this period and will leave out any mention at this
time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 262018
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A weak circulation now moving across central KS will support sct t-
storm activity through sunset across those areas south of I-70 with
a gradual decrease thereafter. Expect most areas should be dry after
midnight with decreasing clouds and light winds.  This may lead to
patch fog development which would end up being more of an aviation
issue so will have to monitor that overnight.  Otherwise...weak
pressure gradient will become southeast on Monday as an upper wave
moves southeast in the developing northwest flow regime.  Best
thetae advection and instability gradient should remain west of the
area so will keep only low chcs for t-storms across the far west
Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Overall have not made many changes to the previous forecast. Area
still appears to be on the eastern edge of potential MCS activity
Monday night and Tuesday night into early Wednesday. South to
southeast low level winds keep relatively high moisture into the
High Plains with rapidly decreasing inflow and instability from
central to eastern Kansas. Still some potential for strong winds
with these complexes with hail and flooding rains unlikely. With
somewhat higher confidence in the bulk of this precip remaining to
the west, have nudged up most temps into the mid week. Another cold
front in northwest flow settles in for better widespread precip
chances in the Wednesday night to Thursday night periods. Upper
pattern shifts a bit Friday into Sunday with the eastern Canadian
trough pushing east and modest upper ridging moving into the Plains.
This should bring a warming trend and less opportunity for precip
with time, though at this point changes do look gradual.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Expect scattered t-storms to develop through 21Z however coverage
and location remains uncertain so will keep the VCTS and CB
qualifier in the forecast along with VFR conds. Any convective
threat should end by 00Z at the TAF sites and thereafter it
appears that MVFR VIS conds may develop overnight given clearing
skies and light winds and remnant humidities so will mention some
MVFR VIS conds overnight.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Omitt




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261933
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
133 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Just completed an update. Main change was to adjust to a later
timing of the onset of thunderstorms this afternoon. Also adjusted
maxes up slightly in the western portion of my area.

UPDATE Issued at 726 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms have redeveloped over the northeast portion of the
area. Mesoanalysis a surface trough and/or outflow boundary that
extends from southwest from between Norton and Hill City. Also
weak shortwave/shear zone and weak right rear quadrant in the
area as well through this morning. So added a slight chance of
thunderstorms for current development and along the boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The zonal westerly flow across the northern half of the U.S.
amplifies into a more meridional pattern through Tuesday as high
pressure strengthens over the 4-corners region with a ridge axis
extending northward. Downstream, the upper flow over the Central
High Plains becomes northwest with several embedded short wave
troughs expected to move across the region in the short term
period.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening with a few marginally severe storms possible
over far northeast Colorado as storms develop over the Cheyenne
ridge during the afternoon, move further east over the plains and
dissipate weaken through the late evening and overnight hours. A
few showers may continue across far southwest Nebraska through the
night.

On Monday there is a slight risk of severe storms across the
forecast area with damaging wind and large hail possible as the
shear increases with the amplifying northwest flow and a cold
front moves into the region from the north northeast between
Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning. Expect showers and a
few storms to linger into early Tuesday and redevelop and become
more widespread again on Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The
return flow around the high pressure area that moves deeper into
the plains states creates a corridor of moisture and instability
with plenty of shear that will aid in the development of
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and damaging
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be sliding southeast across the area Sunday
night associated with a shortwave trough coming out of the
central Rockies. Best chances will be in the southeastern part of
the area in the evening becoming scattered and mainly south of
Interstate 70 after midnight.

The upper pattern changes very little the rest of the upcoming
week. A ridge will be centered near the Four Corners and trough
near the Great Lakes with northwest flow aloft over the central
plains. Embedded weak shortwave troughs will result in daily
thunderstorm chances. Latest model output suggest heavy rain
possible late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning across eastern
areas (east of Highway 25) and again on Thursday night, but across
western and southern areas. Pops have increased substantially
during those time periods. A subtle pattern change over the
weekend to more of a zonal flow aloft as the ridge in the west
weakens and the axis moves into the central plains may result in
a decrease in coverage of storms during that time. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Timing and locations of thunderstorm development is uncertain
through tomorrow. At this time both sites vfr conditions are
expected unless one of the stronger storms affects the site.
South southeast to southeast of 10 to 15 knots with few gusts near
20 knots are expected through early this evening especially at
Kgld.

Due to the uncertainty mentioned above, chose to only mention vcts
at Kgld from 02z to 07z, and from 05z to 09z at Kmck. More
thunderstorms are expected tomorrow with an onset very near or
slightly after this period and will leave out any mention at this
time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261932
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
232 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern portions
of southwest Kansas tonight even as the flow aloft remains fairly
weak across the Western High Plains. Short range models indicate
a frontal boundary just to our south remaining stalled out across
the northern Texas Panhandle eastward into extreme northern
Oklahoma this evening before generally washing out overnight while
a subsequent southeasterly upslope flow returns to western
Kansas. Considering an already weak cap present, ample
moisture/instability will be sufficient enough to support
thunderstorm development early this evening in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary, particularly across south central Kansas. The
weak flow aloft and less than favorable 0-6km shear will limit
severe potential to marginal levels at best with gusty winds the
primary concern. Additionally, PW values in excess of 1.5 inches
will continue to support the potential for periods of heavy
rainfall causing localized flooding. Low temperatures tonight will
drop back down into the 60s(F) tonight with little change to the
air mass across the high plains. Highs Monday will once again push
near 90F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorm chances will exist nearly each day through the latter
part of the week as upper level ridging builds across the
Intermountain West, setting up a northwesterly flow aloft across
the Western High Plains. As a prevailing southeasterly upslope
flow continues to draw low level moisture into Kansas, a series of
H5 vort maxima will cycle off the ridge axis into the high plains
during the period setting the stage for diurnally driven
thunderstorm development lee of the front range late each day.
The focus for thunderstorms Monday will be in an area of increased
lift in the vicinity of a developing frontal boundary expected to
extend northeast off a surface low in the Colorado Rockies into
western Nebraska. Storms are likely to drift off the higher
terrain into western Kansas Monday evening. Although typcial
damaging wind gusts and some damaging hail may play a role, the
potential for locally heavy rainfall will also exist considering
the amount of available moisture present. This could lead to
localized flooding issues, especially for areas already receiving
rainfall the past few days. This pattern is forecast to persist
through the rest of the week setting up portions of western and
central Kansas for additional periods of appreciable rainfall.

Temperatures are expected to remain fairly seasonal across the
Western High Plains through mid week as southeast upslope flow
persists across western Kansas through much of the time frame with
periods of rainfall and increased cloud cover also contributing
factors. Highs generally in the 80s(F) to near 90F can be expected
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late tonight.
However, a developing east to southeasterly upslope flow, high
relative humidity, and residual moisture from recent rainfall may
lead to areas of ground fog development toward daybreak Monday
morning. MVFR vsbys will be possible in the vicinity of all TAF
sites generally after 08Z. Light easterly winds early this afternoon
will become more southeasterly 5 to 15kt this evening as surface
high pressure moves from eastern Nebraska southeast across the
Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  90  66  87 /  30  30  40  20
GCK  65  89  66  88 /  20  30  40  10
EHA  65  89  65  88 /  20  30  40  10
LBL  67  90  66  88 /  30  30  40  10
HYS  67  90  66  87 /  20  40  50  20
P28  70  92  69  89 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KICT 261916
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
216 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main issue will be precipitation chances through the forecast.

A nearly stationary/diffuse boundary will stretch ENE across the
southern half of the forecast area this evening. With ample
afternoon heating, the boundary, and plenty of potential energy,
storms into the evening south of highway 50 could be severe. Those
storms that develop or move north of the boundary should remain
below severe limits but will produce heavy rainsfor those
locations that experience storms.

A chance for lingering showers and weak thunderstorms will continue
into Monday morning in the vicinity of the boundary before dying off
by the afternoon hours. With an upper ridge in place over the
desert southwest, northwest flow will occur across the western two
thirds of the forecast area. Both the NAM and GFS develop MCS`s in
Nebraska and slide them SSE across our forecast area. This is
where is gets tricky. The NAM is faster and further west, while
the GFS is slower and further east. For now, I will hedge for a
compromise between the two. What this means will be decent chances
for storms and heavy rains overnight Monday and Tuesday. The
storms and precipitation are more likely Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Isolated rain amounts over 1.5 inches will be possible,
mainly west of the Flint Hills. Severe potential beyond this
evening will be limited to lower end criteria. Only exception
might be overnight Tuesday in the form of winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Precipitation remains the main issue for this portion of the
forecast as well. The nearly stationary/diffuse boundary that will
plague the area for the early portions of the forecast period will
meander just south of KS. The upper NW flow will also continue
with weaker impulses ejecting across the forecast area each night.
These two culprits will produce just enough lift to warrant
thunder chances in virtually every period of the forecast. With
decent precipitable water values in the southern half, very heavy
rains will be likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weakening surface cold front was situated from northeast Kansas
into south central Kansas. Convection should continue to develop
and gradually increase in coverage this afternoon with the
front and/or mesoscale boundary pushing the effective front south
toward or into far northern Oklahoma this evening. While mainly
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast valid period,
periods of MVFR or even brief IFR can be expected in convection
this afternoon though early tonight. However will relegate TEMPO
groups to areas where near term confidence is highest. Some patchy
MVFR fog and or stratus CIGS are possible early Monday morning,
though confidence is not high enough yet to insert in the
terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  91  70  89 /  40  30  30  10
Hutchinson      68  91  68  88 /  40  30  30  10
Newton          69  90  68  88 /  40  40  30  10
ElDorado        69  90  69  88 /  40  30  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   71  91  70  89 /  50  30  30  10
Russell         67  91  66  88 /  20  30  40  10
Great Bend      67  91  66  89 /  30  30  40  10
Salina          68  92  68  89 /  30  30  30  10
McPherson       68  91  68  88 /  30  30  30  10
Coffeyville     71  91  68  89 /  50  40  20  10
Chanute         70  91  67  88 /  50  30  20  10
Iola            70  91  67  87 /  50  30  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  91  68  88 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWH
LONG TERM...CWH
AVIATION...KED




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261803
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1203 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Just completed an update. Main change was to adjust to a later
timing of the onset of thunderstorms this afternoon. Also adjusted
maxes up slightly in the western portion of my area.

UPDATE Issued at 726 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms have redeveloped over the northeast portion of the
area. Mesoanalysis a surface trough and/or outflow boundary that
extends from southwest from between Norton and Hill City. Also
weak shortwave/shear zone and weak right rear quadrant in the
area as well through this morning. So added a slight chance of
thunderstorms for current development and along the boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The zonal westerly flow across the northern half of the U.S.
amplifies into a more meridional pattern through Tuesday as high
pressure strengthens over the 4-corners region with a ridge axis
extending northward. Downstream, the upper flow over the Central
High Plains becomes northwest with several embedded short wave
troughs expected to move across the region in the short term
period.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening with a few marginally severe storms possible
over far northeast Colorado as storms develop over the Cheyenne
ridge during the afternoon, move further east over the plains and
dissipate weaken through the late evening and overnight hours. A
few showers may continue across far southwest Nebraska through the
night.

On Monday there is a slight risk of severe storms across the
forecast area with damaging wind and large hail possible as the
shear increases with the amplifying northwest flow and a cold
front moves into the region from the north northeast between
Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning. Expect showers and a
few storms to linger into early Tuesday and redevelop and become
more widespread again on Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The
return flow around the high pressure area that moves deeper into
the plains states creates a corridor of moisture and instability
with plenty of shear that will aid in the development of
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and damaging
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS is staying very consistent with
a trough in the east and a ridge in the west during the extended
period. The CWA region is sitting in the middle of the two which
brings with it storm potential everyday. By Saturday the upper level
flow starts to decrease in amplitude over the region, with less of a
northwest flow and becoming more westerly. So, even though Saturday
still has storm potential, as of right now, it is not looking like
they will be as intense. Wednesday looks to have the precipitation
potential in the afternoon and early evening primarily in the
eastern portions of the region. The models are in fairly good
agreement on this at this time. Thursday and Friday will bring
continued storm chances due to upper level shortwaves breaking
through the ridge and moving over the area. The bulk shear is not
impressive on those days but CAPE values get up to around 1200 J/kg
over the southern portions of the region. The current model runs
actually pushed the more intense storm potential south of the CWA
compared to the earlier model runs over the last few days. The
latter part of the extended period still has discrepancies between
the models but they are definitely days to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Timing and locations of thunderstorm development is uncertain
through tomorrow. At this time both sites vfr conditions are
expected unless one of the stronger storms affects the site.
South southeast to southeast of 10 to 15 knots with few gusts near
20 knots are expected through early this evening especially at
Kgld.

Due to the uncertainty mentioned above, chose to only mention vcts
at Kgld from 02z to 07z, and from 05z to 09z at Kmck. More
thunderstorms are expected tomorrow with an onset very near or
slightly after this period and will leave out any mention at this
time.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261745
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms will be possible across central and eastern portions
of southwest Kansas tonight even as the flow aloft remains fairly
weak across the Western High Plains. Short range models indicate
a frontal boundary just to our south remaining stalled out across
the northern Texas Panhandle eastward into extreme northern
Oklahoma this evening before generally washing out overnight while
a subsequent southeasterly upslope flow returns to western
Kansas. Considering an already weak cap present, ample
moisture/instability will be sufficient enough to support
thunderstorm development early this evening in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary, particularly across south central Kansas. The
weak flow aloft and less than favorable 0-6km shear will limit
severe potential to marginal levels at best with gusty winds the
primary concern. Additionally, PW values in excess of 1.5 inches
will continue to support the potential for periods of heavy
rainfall causing localized flooding. Low temperatures tonight will
drop back down into the 60s(F) tonight with little change to the
air mass across the high plains. Highs Monday will once again push
near 90F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

This week will feature daily/nightly thunderstorm chances as we
enter a very favorable pattern for MCS activity. Generally in mid
to late June, a west-northwest or northwest flow pattern in the
mid-upper troposphere favors organized thunderstorm activity
across the western plains given the fact that abundant post-
frontal moisture exists this far into the warm season and fronts,
in general, tend to wash out across the Central Plains given a
weaker jet stream. This certainly appears to be the case all this
week and into the following weekend. Daily, subsynoptic
perturbations within the longer wave pattern will most certainly
dictate location, strength, and timing of MCS activity. The first
significant looking convective signal in this Long Term period is
late Monday/Monday Night as a weak jet streak moves from the
Northern Plains into the Midwest region. Thunderstorm activity
will likely develop across western Nebraska Monday and develop
into one or two fairly formidable MCSs as the activity rolls
south/southeast toward western Kansas. There is a fairly strong
signal among all three major global spectral model (GSM) solutions
/ECMWF, GFS, GEM/ that something significant will roll south
through the night Monday Night.

We may see a bit of a break Tuesday as the atmosphere recovers, but
another MCS will probably develop again over western Nebraska late
Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The signal in the GSM is that whatever
forms Tuesday Night will probably roll just east of the southwest
Kansas region into north central/northeast KS by late Tuesday
Night/early Wednesday. If that is the case, it would leave much of
western Kansas untouched on Wednesday for what could be the best
looking setup of the first three days (Mon-Wed) for severe weather
across our region. The GSM consensus is that a surface low would
develop somewhere across southwest KS (or very near) with a
potential outflow boundary enhancing low level baroclinicity.
Northwest flow in the upper troposphere by then would be in the 35
to 50 knot range, which would be enough deep layer shear to
support organized severe thunderstorm activity.

As we head into late week/next weekend, the GSM solutions all show a
rather formidable trough diving down into the Upper Midwest with a
chilly, Canadian surface high spreading south across the Northern
Plains. A sharp front, by summer standards, could be in play across
Kansas which would provide an even better opportunity for severe
local storms and potential heavy rainfall. It is quite possible one
or two days in the Friday-Sunday time frame, toward the end of this
forecast period, could see daytime highs in the 70s.

The total accumulation of rainfall throughout this entire Long Term
period (Monday through Saturday) could be quite excessive for
many across the western half of Kansas, including widespread 2 to
4 inches with some smaller pockets of 5+ inches in the areas that
see multiple MCS passages. This is not good news for agricultural
interests that are still cutting wheat, especially up north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late tonight.
However, a developing east to southeasterly upslope flow, high
relative humidity, and residual moisture from recent rainfall may
lead to areas of ground fog development toward daybreak Monday
morning. MVFR vsbys will be possible in the vicinity of all TAF
sites generally after 08Z. Light easterly winds early this afternoon
will become more southeasterly 5 to 15kt this evening as surface
high pressure moves from eastern Nebraska southeast across the
Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  90  66 /  20  30  30  40
GCK  86  65  89  66 /  20  20  30  40
EHA  87  65  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
LBL  88  67  90  66 /  20  30  30  40
HYS  85  67  90  66 /  20  20  30  40
P28  92  70  92  69 /  50  40  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KICT 261706
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1206 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Cold front that had been fairly well-defined by prognostics the
past 3 nights had become very diffuse during the night, due in no
small part by the numerous showers & thunderstorms that had been
occurring from Wrn KS to extreme SE Nebraska & SW IA. Coverage &
intensity have diminished since about 1 AM, although a cluster of
thunderstorms have visited SC KS since around mid-night but they,
too, have diminished. It remains quite warm & humid as temperatures
are ranging from the upper 70s in Ern KS to around 70 along the wrn
corridor of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Today & Tonight:
With a very warm & moisture-laden airmass entrenched across the KS
neighborhood, scattered thunderstorms will continue across the
region. Airmass will of course destabilize this afternoon but with
strong mid-upper high pressure covering the lower & mid MS Valley
deep-layer shear will continue to be weak. As such, the severe
thunderstorm potential would remain marginal at best. With such
high octane moisture entrenched across the region, locally heavy
rains would continue to be the primary product, especially across
SC & SE KS where precipitable waters will reach into the 2 to 2.25
range late this afternoon & tonight.

Mon-Tue Night:
The intense mid-upper cyclone that had crossed the Saskatchewan/
Manitoba border Sat evening has begun to occlude as it crosses the
Manitoba/Ontario border, however, the character is now expected to
transition into an open wave as it pushes E/SE the Ontario/Quebec
border Mon Morning. This would cause the STRONG & massive mid-upper
high that has been covering the Srn U.S. to slowly retrograde
across the Desert SW Mon & Mon Night & with a 2nd upper-deck short
wave quickly strengthening as it surges SE toward, then across, the
Great Lakes Mon Night, the neighborhood would be under a deepening
NW regime. This, in turn, would drive a weak cold front S/SE across
KS Mon Night. Convergence is weak & with the greatest upper support
targeting the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes the severe thunderstorm
potential across the KS neighborhood would remain in check.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

With the NW regime dominating the Great Plains and occasional weak
shortwaves moving SE into a predominantly moist environment,
scattered thunderstorms would continue across the region throughout
the week. As such, the forecast for these periods remains
unchanged.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weakening surface cold front was situated from northeast Kansas
into south central Kansas. Convection should continue to develop
and gradually increase in coverage this afternoon with the
front and/or mesoscale boundary pushing the effective front south
toward or into far northern Oklahoma this evening. While mainly
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast valid period,
periods of MVFR or even brief IFR can be expected in convection
this afternoon though early tonight. However will relegate TEMPO
groups to areas where near term confidence is highest. Some patchy
MVFR fog and or stratus CIGS are possible early Monday morning,
though confidence is not high enough yet to insert in the
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  71  91  70 /  50  60  40  30
Hutchinson      88  68  91  68 /  50  40  40  30
Newton          88  69  90  68 /  50  50  40  30
ElDorado        89  69  90  69 /  50  50  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   91  71  91  70 /  50  60  40  30
Russell         87  67  91  66 /  40  20  40  30
Great Bend      87  67  91  66 /  30  30  40  40
Salina          89  68  92  68 /  40  30  40  30
McPherson       88  68  91  68 /  60  40  40  30
Coffeyville     91  71  91  68 /  50  60  40  20
Chanute         89  70  91  67 /  50  60  40  20
Iola            88  70  91  67 /  60  50  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    90  70  91  68 /  50  60  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED




000
FXUS63 KICT 261706
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1206 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Cold front that had been fairly well-defined by prognostics the
past 3 nights had become very diffuse during the night, due in no
small part by the numerous showers & thunderstorms that had been
occurring from Wrn KS to extreme SE Nebraska & SW IA. Coverage &
intensity have diminished since about 1 AM, although a cluster of
thunderstorms have visited SC KS since around mid-night but they,
too, have diminished. It remains quite warm & humid as temperatures
are ranging from the upper 70s in Ern KS to around 70 along the wrn
corridor of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Today & Tonight:
With a very warm & moisture-laden airmass entrenched across the KS
neighborhood, scattered thunderstorms will continue across the
region. Airmass will of course destabilize this afternoon but with
strong mid-upper high pressure covering the lower & mid MS Valley
deep-layer shear will continue to be weak. As such, the severe
thunderstorm potential would remain marginal at best. With such
high octane moisture entrenched across the region, locally heavy
rains would continue to be the primary product, especially across
SC & SE KS where precipitable waters will reach into the 2 to 2.25
range late this afternoon & tonight.

Mon-Tue Night:
The intense mid-upper cyclone that had crossed the Saskatchewan/
Manitoba border Sat evening has begun to occlude as it crosses the
Manitoba/Ontario border, however, the character is now expected to
transition into an open wave as it pushes E/SE the Ontario/Quebec
border Mon Morning. This would cause the STRONG & massive mid-upper
high that has been covering the Srn U.S. to slowly retrograde
across the Desert SW Mon & Mon Night & with a 2nd upper-deck short
wave quickly strengthening as it surges SE toward, then across, the
Great Lakes Mon Night, the neighborhood would be under a deepening
NW regime. This, in turn, would drive a weak cold front S/SE across
KS Mon Night. Convergence is weak & with the greatest upper support
targeting the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes the severe thunderstorm
potential across the KS neighborhood would remain in check.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

With the NW regime dominating the Great Plains and occasional weak
shortwaves moving SE into a predominantly moist environment,
scattered thunderstorms would continue across the region throughout
the week. As such, the forecast for these periods remains
unchanged.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weakening surface cold front was situated from northeast Kansas
into south central Kansas. Convection should continue to develop
and gradually increase in coverage this afternoon with the
front and/or mesoscale boundary pushing the effective front south
toward or into far northern Oklahoma this evening. While mainly
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast valid period,
periods of MVFR or even brief IFR can be expected in convection
this afternoon though early tonight. However will relegate TEMPO
groups to areas where near term confidence is highest. Some patchy
MVFR fog and or stratus CIGS are possible early Monday morning,
though confidence is not high enough yet to insert in the
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  71  91  70 /  50  60  40  30
Hutchinson      88  68  91  68 /  50  40  40  30
Newton          88  69  90  68 /  50  50  40  30
ElDorado        89  69  90  69 /  50  50  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   91  71  91  70 /  50  60  40  30
Russell         87  67  91  66 /  40  20  40  30
Great Bend      87  67  91  66 /  30  30  40  40
Salina          89  68  92  68 /  40  30  40  30
McPherson       88  68  91  68 /  60  40  40  30
Coffeyville     91  71  91  68 /  50  60  40  20
Chanute         89  70  91  67 /  50  60  40  20
Iola            88  70  91  67 /  60  50  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    90  70  91  68 /  50  60  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...KED




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261705
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1205 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

WV imagery indicates a southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains while a closed off upper level low shifts
eastward into southwest Ontario, Canada. Near the surface, a weak
cold front extends from the Texas Panhandle northeast into
southeast Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was ongoing as of 0540 UTC, but
it has transitioned more to a post-stratiform event per the latest
radar trends. Radar echoes in the post-stratiform region were fairly
widespread across southwest Kansas, and the entire area was moving
extremely slowly. This should slowly dissolve through 1200 UTC, but
a remnant mesoscale convective vort (MCV) center will likely persist
through the day Sunday. This, combined with the remnant surface
front and abundant moisture already in place (both lower and mid
tropospheric) will likely initiate new thunderstorm activity once
late June insolation deepens and destabilizes the boundary layer. We
will ramp the POPs back up to 40-55 percent generally
along/southeast of Highway 54. The preponderance of the model
solutions are fairly in line with this thinking.

The low level frontogenesis will not be strong like yesterday, so
it is much more unclear how the evolution will be after convective
initiation, and exactly which areas will see the greatest chance
for heavy rainfall. The synoptic pressure gradient will be
extremely weak across the Central Plains, so it will be difficult
to find a coherent focus for convective initiation. The lack of
wind flow in the lower troposphere (and even the mid troposphere)
will significantly limit severe weather and will probably preclude
MCS development. As such, we will not carry very high POPs in the
Tonight period across a good portion of southwest and west central
Kansas. That said, a small MCS may develop well to the northwest
across northeast CO/southwest NE which would drift southeast into
far northwest KS. By the time it even reaches northwest KS,
though, it will be quite late in the evening, and there is little
indication that it will progress much farther south than that
given the poor downstream inflow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

This week will feature daily/nightly thunderstorm chances as we
enter a very favorable pattern for MCS activity. Generally in mid
to late June, a west-northwest or northwest flow pattern in the
mid-upper troposphere favors organized thunderstorm activity
across the western plains given the fact that abundant post-
frontal moisture exists this far into the warm season and fronts,
in general, tend to wash out across the Central Plains given a
weaker jet stream. This certainly appears to be the case all this
week and into the following weekend. Daily, subsynoptic
perturbations within the longer wave pattern will most certainly
dictate location, strength, and timing of MCS activity. The first
significant looking convective signal in this Long Term period is
late Monday/Monday Night as a weak jet streak moves from the
Northern Plains into the Midwest region. Thunderstorm activity
will likely develop across western Nebraska Monday and develop
into one or two fairly formidable MCSs as the activity rolls
south/southeast toward western Kansas. There is a fairly strong
signal among all three major global spectral model (GSM) solutions
/ECMWF, GFS, GEM/ that something significant will roll south
through the night Monday Night.

We may see a bit of a break Tuesday as the atmosphere recovers, but
another MCS will probably develop again over western Nebraska late
Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The signal in the GSM is that whatever
forms Tuesday Night will probably roll just east of the southwest
Kansas region into north central/northeast KS by late Tuesday
Night/early Wednesday. If that is the case, it would leave much of
western Kansas untouched on Wednesday for what could be the best
looking setup of the first three days (Mon-Wed) for severe weather
across our region. The GSM consensus is that a surface low would
develop somewhere across southwest KS (or very near) with a
potential outflow boundary enhancing low level baroclinicity.
Northwest flow in the upper troposphere by then would be in the 35
to 50 knot range, which would be enough deep layer shear to
support organized severe thunderstorm activity.

As we head into late week/next weekend, the GSM solutions all show a
rather formidable trough diving down into the Upper Midwest with a
chilly, Canadian surface high spreading south across the Northern
Plains. A sharp front, by summer standards, could be in play across
Kansas which would provide an even better opportunity for severe
local storms and potential heavy rainfall. It is quite possible one
or two days in the Friday-Sunday time frame, toward the end of this
forecast period, could see daytime highs in the 70s.

The total accumulation of rainfall throughout this entire Long Term
period (Monday through Saturday) could be quite excessive for
many across the western half of Kansas, including widespread 2 to
4 inches with some smaller pockets of 5+ inches in the areas that
see multiple MCS passages. This is not good news for agricultural
interests that are still cutting wheat, especially up north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late tonight.
However, a developing east to southeasterly upslope flow, high
relative humidity, and residual moisture from recent rainfall may
lead to areas of ground fog development toward daybreak Monday
morning. MVFR vsbys will be possible in the vicinity of all TAF
sites generally after 08Z. Light easterly winds early this afternoon
will become more southeasterly 5 to 15kt this evening as surface
high pressure moves from eastern Nebraska southeast across the
Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  90  66 /  20  30  30  40
GCK  86  65  89  66 /  20  20  30  40
EHA  87  65  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
LBL  88  67  90  66 /  20  30  30  40
HYS  85  67  90  66 /  20  20  30  40
P28  92  70  92  69 /  50  40  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261705
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1205 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

WV imagery indicates a southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains while a closed off upper level low shifts
eastward into southwest Ontario, Canada. Near the surface, a weak
cold front extends from the Texas Panhandle northeast into
southeast Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was ongoing as of 0540 UTC, but
it has transitioned more to a post-stratiform event per the latest
radar trends. Radar echoes in the post-stratiform region were fairly
widespread across southwest Kansas, and the entire area was moving
extremely slowly. This should slowly dissolve through 1200 UTC, but
a remnant mesoscale convective vort (MCV) center will likely persist
through the day Sunday. This, combined with the remnant surface
front and abundant moisture already in place (both lower and mid
tropospheric) will likely initiate new thunderstorm activity once
late June insolation deepens and destabilizes the boundary layer. We
will ramp the POPs back up to 40-55 percent generally
along/southeast of Highway 54. The preponderance of the model
solutions are fairly in line with this thinking.

The low level frontogenesis will not be strong like yesterday, so
it is much more unclear how the evolution will be after convective
initiation, and exactly which areas will see the greatest chance
for heavy rainfall. The synoptic pressure gradient will be
extremely weak across the Central Plains, so it will be difficult
to find a coherent focus for convective initiation. The lack of
wind flow in the lower troposphere (and even the mid troposphere)
will significantly limit severe weather and will probably preclude
MCS development. As such, we will not carry very high POPs in the
Tonight period across a good portion of southwest and west central
Kansas. That said, a small MCS may develop well to the northwest
across northeast CO/southwest NE which would drift southeast into
far northwest KS. By the time it even reaches northwest KS,
though, it will be quite late in the evening, and there is little
indication that it will progress much farther south than that
given the poor downstream inflow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

This week will feature daily/nightly thunderstorm chances as we
enter a very favorable pattern for MCS activity. Generally in mid
to late June, a west-northwest or northwest flow pattern in the
mid-upper troposphere favors organized thunderstorm activity
across the western plains given the fact that abundant post-
frontal moisture exists this far into the warm season and fronts,
in general, tend to wash out across the Central Plains given a
weaker jet stream. This certainly appears to be the case all this
week and into the following weekend. Daily, subsynoptic
perturbations within the longer wave pattern will most certainly
dictate location, strength, and timing of MCS activity. The first
significant looking convective signal in this Long Term period is
late Monday/Monday Night as a weak jet streak moves from the
Northern Plains into the Midwest region. Thunderstorm activity
will likely develop across western Nebraska Monday and develop
into one or two fairly formidable MCSs as the activity rolls
south/southeast toward western Kansas. There is a fairly strong
signal among all three major global spectral model (GSM) solutions
/ECMWF, GFS, GEM/ that something significant will roll south
through the night Monday Night.

We may see a bit of a break Tuesday as the atmosphere recovers, but
another MCS will probably develop again over western Nebraska late
Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The signal in the GSM is that whatever
forms Tuesday Night will probably roll just east of the southwest
Kansas region into north central/northeast KS by late Tuesday
Night/early Wednesday. If that is the case, it would leave much of
western Kansas untouched on Wednesday for what could be the best
looking setup of the first three days (Mon-Wed) for severe weather
across our region. The GSM consensus is that a surface low would
develop somewhere across southwest KS (or very near) with a
potential outflow boundary enhancing low level baroclinicity.
Northwest flow in the upper troposphere by then would be in the 35
to 50 knot range, which would be enough deep layer shear to
support organized severe thunderstorm activity.

As we head into late week/next weekend, the GSM solutions all show a
rather formidable trough diving down into the Upper Midwest with a
chilly, Canadian surface high spreading south across the Northern
Plains. A sharp front, by summer standards, could be in play across
Kansas which would provide an even better opportunity for severe
local storms and potential heavy rainfall. It is quite possible one
or two days in the Friday-Sunday time frame, toward the end of this
forecast period, could see daytime highs in the 70s.

The total accumulation of rainfall throughout this entire Long Term
period (Monday through Saturday) could be quite excessive for
many across the western half of Kansas, including widespread 2 to
4 inches with some smaller pockets of 5+ inches in the areas that
see multiple MCS passages. This is not good news for agricultural
interests that are still cutting wheat, especially up north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late tonight.
However, a developing east to southeasterly upslope flow, high
relative humidity, and residual moisture from recent rainfall may
lead to areas of ground fog development toward daybreak Monday
morning. MVFR vsbys will be possible in the vicinity of all TAF
sites generally after 08Z. Light easterly winds early this afternoon
will become more southeasterly 5 to 15kt this evening as surface
high pressure moves from eastern Nebraska southeast across the
Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  90  66 /  20  30  30  40
GCK  86  65  89  66 /  20  20  30  40
EHA  87  65  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
LBL  88  67  90  66 /  20  30  30  40
HYS  85  67  90  66 /  20  20  30  40
P28  92  70  92  69 /  50  40  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson




000
FXUS63 KTOP 261656 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1156 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Early this morning the mid-level trough was tracking eastward across
the northern U.S. toward the Great Lakes region.  At the surface,
the cold front was stretched across north central Kansas and was
very slowly shifting southeastward. Models show this boundary
bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast by around sunrise and
shifting south of I-70 by late morning/early afternoon.  There are
still some slight model discrepancies with when the boundary will
move south of the forecast area, as some models show the front still
being hung-up across east central Kansas late this afternoon into
early this evening.  Early this morning scattered showers and storms
developed along the front across north central Kansas, however the
line of precipitation has weakened significantly. Short-range models
show this broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
continuing to develop along the boundary across portions of north
central and northeast Kansas this morning. Conditions should
destabilize enough this afternoon to spark additional isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. In fact, model
soundings show the cap eroding away by early afternoon, allowing
for surface-based storms to develop along the boundary. The best
potential for redevelopment should be generally along and south of I-
70, but if the front slows its southward progression then
precipitation chances may extend further north. Models show that
MUCAPE values may be upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg, but 0-6km bulk shear
values continue to look very weak at 20-25kts. With these conditions
in place, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong storms to
develop this afternoon into this evening, with the main hazards
being hail and strong winds. PWAT values may reach upwards of 1.9 to
2.1 inches, so any storms that develop may be capable of producing
some quick, heavy rainfall. However, due to the expected isolated to
scattered nature of the storms, do not anticipate any flooding
concerns at this time.  There is some model uncertainty with how
quickly any storms will shift southward out of the area. If
anything, have diminishing PoPs across east central Kansas during
the evening and overnight hours.

As for temperatures, the increased cloud cover through the day along
with weak northeast/easterly winds will result in cooler
temperatures with afternoon highs only reaching into the upper
80s/near 90 degrees. With some diminishing cloud cover across
northern Kansas tonight, expect low temperatures to drop into the
upper 60s to low 70s from north to south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The long term period will be characterized on a broad scale by
persistent northwesterly flow, and while Monday will be warm in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, expect to see a cooler period for
Tuesday and beyond as that more northerly component to the flow
pattern brings a somewhat cooler airmass into the local area.

After a warm day on Monday, expect an axis of instability to
develop across the area with the greatest instability and moisture
likely focused over the southwest portions of the forecast area
close to weak surface front. A short wave trough is forecast to
move out of western Nebraska and across Kansas by late Monday and
this appears to be a fair setup for afternoon thunderstorm
development possibly growing upscale into an MCS. The best focus
for a forward propagating MCS with damaging wind potential appears
to run through north central KS and areas to the south southeast.
This will continue through the evening with a cold front pushing
through behind the short wave passage. While some models continue
developing precip through the day on Tuesday, it seems highly
unlikely in the stable post-frontal airmass across the area and
have gone with a dry forecast for Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning features another favorable
setup for an MCS across the central Plains as thunderstorms are
likely to develop and organize across western SD and the Nebraska
panhandle in association with a short wave/jet max, and then
accelerate to the southeast into Kansas. Expect this system to
follow the instability axis as it moves into Kansas, and current
indications are that the far eastern fringes of the MCS may impact
western parts of the local forecast area, but still with some
uncertainty in the location of the instability gradient. Wind
fields warrant at least some potential for this storm system to
produce damaging wind if it indeed forward propagates into parts
of north central KS.

Another strong upper trough will dive across the northern Plains
into the Great Lakes by late Thursday, bringing another good
chance for widespread thunderstorms as it pushes a strong front
into northeast KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Expect scattered t-storms to develop through 21Z however coverage
and location remains uncertain so will keep the VCTS and CB
qualifier in the forecast along with VFR conds. Any convective
threat should end by 00Z at the TAF sites and thereafter it
appears that MVFR VIS conds may develop overnight given clearing
skies and light winds and remnant humidities so will mention some
MVFR VIS conds overnight.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Omitt




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261417
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
917 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

WV imagery indicates a southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains while a closed off upper level low shifts
eastward into southwest Ontario, Canada. Near the surface, a weak
cold front extends from the Texas Panhandle northeast into
southeast Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was ongoing as of 0540 UTC, but
it has transitioned more to a post-stratiform event per the latest
radar trends. Radar echoes in the post-stratiform region were fairly
widespread across southwest Kansas, and the entire area was moving
extremely slowly. This should slowly dissolve through 1200 UTC, but
a remnant mesoscale convective vort (MCV) center will likely persist
through the day Sunday. This, combined with the remnant surface
front and abundant moisture already in place (both lower and mid
tropospheric) will likely initiate new thunderstorm activity once
late June insolation deepens and destabilizes the boundary layer. We
will ramp the POPs back up to 40-55 percent generally
along/southeast of Highway 54. The preponderance of the model
solutions are fairly in line with this thinking.

The low level frontogenesis will not be strong like yesterday, so
it is much more unclear how the evolution will be after convective
initiation, and exactly which areas will see the greatest chance
for heavy rainfall. The synoptic pressure gradient will be
extremely weak across the Central Plains, so it will be difficult
to find a coherent focus for convective initiation. The lack of
wind flow in the lower troposphere (and even the mid troposphere)
will significantly limit severe weather and will probably preclude
MCS development. As such, we will not carry very high POPs in the
Tonight period across a good portion of southwest and west central
Kansas. That said, a small MCS may develop well to the northwest
across northeast CO/southwest NE which would drift southeast into
far northwest KS. By the time it even reaches northwest KS,
though, it will be quite late in the evening, and there is little
indication that it will progress much farther south than that
given the poor downstream inflow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

This week will feature daily/nightly thunderstorm chances as we
enter a very favorable pattern for MCS activity. Generally in mid
to late June, a west-northwest or northwest flow pattern in the
mid-upper troposphere favors organized thunderstorm activity
across the western plains given the fact that abundant post-
frontal moisture exists this far into the warm season and fronts,
in general, tend to wash out across the Central Plains given a
weaker jet stream. This certainly appears to be the case all this
week and into the following weekend. Daily, subsynoptic
perturbations within the longer wave pattern will most certainly
dictate location, strength, and timing of MCS activity. The first
significant looking convective signal in this Long Term period is
late Monday/Monday Night as a weak jet streak moves from the
Northern Plains into the Midwest region. Thunderstorm activity
will likely develop across western Nebraska Monday and develop
into one or two fairly formidable MCSs as the activity rolls
south/southeast toward western Kansas. There is a fairly strong
signal among all three major global spectral model (GSM) solutions
/ECMWF, GFS, GEM/ that something significant will roll south
through the night Monday Night.

We may see a bit of a break Tuesday as the atmosphere recovers, but
another MCS will probably develop again over western Nebraska late
Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The signal in the GSM is that whatever
forms Tuesday Night will probably roll just east of the southwest
Kansas region into north central/northeast KS by late Tuesday
Night/early Wednesday. If that is the case, it would leave much of
western Kansas untouched on Wednesday for what could be the best
looking setup of the first three days (Mon-Wed) for severe weather
across our region. The GSM consensus is that a surface low would
develop somewhere across southwest KS (or very near) with a
potential outflow boundary enhancing low level baroclinicity.
Northwest flow in the upper troposphere by then would be in the 35
to 50 knot range, which would be enough deep layer shear to
support organized severe thunderstorm activity.

As we head into late week/next weekend, the GSM solutions all show a
rather formidable trough diving down into the Upper Midwest with a
chilly, Canadian surface high spreading south across the Northern
Plains. A sharp front, by summer standards, could be in play across
Kansas which would provide an even better opportunity for severe
local storms and potential heavy rainfall. It is quite possible one
or two days in the Friday-Sunday time frame, toward the end of this
forecast period, could see daytime highs in the 70s.

The total accumulation of rainfall throughout this entire Long Term
period (Monday through Saturday) could be quite excessive for
many across the western half of Kansas, including widespread 2 to
4 inches with some smaller pockets of 5+ inches in the areas that
see multiple MCS passages. This is not good news for agricultural
interests that are still cutting wheat, especially up north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weak summertime flow regime will prevail in Kansas today. A
weak cold front that extended from northeast Kansas into the Texas
Panhandle early today will become stationary from southeast Kansas
to the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A weak upper level
trough extending from north central into southwest Kansas should
propagate slowly southeast and weaken by afternoon. Widespread
cirriform cloudiness with ceilings near 200 early in the day will
erode during the morning hours. Scattered cumulus cloudiness with
bases near 040 can be expected to develop by late morning and
dissipate before sunset.

Low level winds will be light and somewhat variable this morning
and will become east around 10 kts this afternoon. A few showers
will persist through 13Z near HYS, and scattered thunderstorms are
likely to develop near the weak upper level trough from central
into south central Kansas by early afternoon. The thunderstorms
likely will remain southeast of the TAF sites. Thunderstorms may
develop in northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas late this
afternoon and propagate south across extreme western Kansas this
evening but should remain west of the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  90  66 /  20  20  30  40
GCK  86  65  89  66 /  20  20  30  40
EHA  87  65  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
LBL  88  67  90  66 /  20  30  30  40
HYS  85  67  90  66 /  20  20  20  40
P28  92  70  92  69 /  50  30  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Ruthi




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261417
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
917 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

WV imagery indicates a southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains while a closed off upper level low shifts
eastward into southwest Ontario, Canada. Near the surface, a weak
cold front extends from the Texas Panhandle northeast into
southeast Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was ongoing as of 0540 UTC, but
it has transitioned more to a post-stratiform event per the latest
radar trends. Radar echoes in the post-stratiform region were fairly
widespread across southwest Kansas, and the entire area was moving
extremely slowly. This should slowly dissolve through 1200 UTC, but
a remnant mesoscale convective vort (MCV) center will likely persist
through the day Sunday. This, combined with the remnant surface
front and abundant moisture already in place (both lower and mid
tropospheric) will likely initiate new thunderstorm activity once
late June insolation deepens and destabilizes the boundary layer. We
will ramp the POPs back up to 40-55 percent generally
along/southeast of Highway 54. The preponderance of the model
solutions are fairly in line with this thinking.

The low level frontogenesis will not be strong like yesterday, so
it is much more unclear how the evolution will be after convective
initiation, and exactly which areas will see the greatest chance
for heavy rainfall. The synoptic pressure gradient will be
extremely weak across the Central Plains, so it will be difficult
to find a coherent focus for convective initiation. The lack of
wind flow in the lower troposphere (and even the mid troposphere)
will significantly limit severe weather and will probably preclude
MCS development. As such, we will not carry very high POPs in the
Tonight period across a good portion of southwest and west central
Kansas. That said, a small MCS may develop well to the northwest
across northeast CO/southwest NE which would drift southeast into
far northwest KS. By the time it even reaches northwest KS,
though, it will be quite late in the evening, and there is little
indication that it will progress much farther south than that
given the poor downstream inflow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

This week will feature daily/nightly thunderstorm chances as we
enter a very favorable pattern for MCS activity. Generally in mid
to late June, a west-northwest or northwest flow pattern in the
mid-upper troposphere favors organized thunderstorm activity
across the western plains given the fact that abundant post-
frontal moisture exists this far into the warm season and fronts,
in general, tend to wash out across the Central Plains given a
weaker jet stream. This certainly appears to be the case all this
week and into the following weekend. Daily, subsynoptic
perturbations within the longer wave pattern will most certainly
dictate location, strength, and timing of MCS activity. The first
significant looking convective signal in this Long Term period is
late Monday/Monday Night as a weak jet streak moves from the
Northern Plains into the Midwest region. Thunderstorm activity
will likely develop across western Nebraska Monday and develop
into one or two fairly formidable MCSs as the activity rolls
south/southeast toward western Kansas. There is a fairly strong
signal among all three major global spectral model (GSM) solutions
/ECMWF, GFS, GEM/ that something significant will roll south
through the night Monday Night.

We may see a bit of a break Tuesday as the atmosphere recovers, but
another MCS will probably develop again over western Nebraska late
Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The signal in the GSM is that whatever
forms Tuesday Night will probably roll just east of the southwest
Kansas region into north central/northeast KS by late Tuesday
Night/early Wednesday. If that is the case, it would leave much of
western Kansas untouched on Wednesday for what could be the best
looking setup of the first three days (Mon-Wed) for severe weather
across our region. The GSM consensus is that a surface low would
develop somewhere across southwest KS (or very near) with a
potential outflow boundary enhancing low level baroclinicity.
Northwest flow in the upper troposphere by then would be in the 35
to 50 knot range, which would be enough deep layer shear to
support organized severe thunderstorm activity.

As we head into late week/next weekend, the GSM solutions all show a
rather formidable trough diving down into the Upper Midwest with a
chilly, Canadian surface high spreading south across the Northern
Plains. A sharp front, by summer standards, could be in play across
Kansas which would provide an even better opportunity for severe
local storms and potential heavy rainfall. It is quite possible one
or two days in the Friday-Sunday time frame, toward the end of this
forecast period, could see daytime highs in the 70s.

The total accumulation of rainfall throughout this entire Long Term
period (Monday through Saturday) could be quite excessive for
many across the western half of Kansas, including widespread 2 to
4 inches with some smaller pockets of 5+ inches in the areas that
see multiple MCS passages. This is not good news for agricultural
interests that are still cutting wheat, especially up north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weak summertime flow regime will prevail in Kansas today. A
weak cold front that extended from northeast Kansas into the Texas
Panhandle early today will become stationary from southeast Kansas
to the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A weak upper level
trough extending from north central into southwest Kansas should
propagate slowly southeast and weaken by afternoon. Widespread
cirriform cloudiness with ceilings near 200 early in the day will
erode during the morning hours. Scattered cumulus cloudiness with
bases near 040 can be expected to develop by late morning and
dissipate before sunset.

Low level winds will be light and somewhat variable this morning
and will become east around 10 kts this afternoon. A few showers
will persist through 13Z near HYS, and scattered thunderstorms are
likely to develop near the weak upper level trough from central
into south central Kansas by early afternoon. The thunderstorms
likely will remain southeast of the TAF sites. Thunderstorms may
develop in northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas late this
afternoon and propagate south across extreme western Kansas this
evening but should remain west of the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  90  66 /  20  20  30  40
GCK  86  65  89  66 /  20  20  30  40
EHA  87  65  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
LBL  88  67  90  66 /  20  30  30  40
HYS  85  67  90  66 /  20  20  20  40
P28  92  70  92  69 /  50  30  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Ruthi




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261329
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
729 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms have redeveloped over the northeast portion of the
area. Mesoanalysis a surface trough and/or outflow boundary that
extends from southwest from between Norton and Hill City. Also
weak shortwave/shear zone and weak right rear quadrant in the
area as well through this morning. So added a slight chance of
thunderstorms for current development and along the boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The zonal westerly flow across the northern half of the U.S.
amplifies into a more meridional pattern through Tuesday as high
pressure strengthens over the 4-corners region with a ridge axis
extending northward. Downstream, the upper flow over the Central
High Plains becomes northwest with several embedded short wave
troughs expected to move across the region in the short term
period.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening with a few marginally severe storms possible
over far northeast Colorado as storms develop over the Cheyenne
ridge during the afternoon, move further east over the plains and
dissipate weaken through the late evening and overnight hours. A
few showers may continue across far southwest Nebraska through the
night.

On Monday there is a slight risk of severe storms across the
forecast area with damaging wind and large hail possible as the
shear increases with the amplifying northwest flow and a cold
front moves into the region from the north northeast between
Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning. Expect showers and a
few storms to linger into early Tuesday and redevelop and become
more widespread again on Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The
return flow around the high pressure area that moves deeper into
the plains states creates a corridor of moisture and instability
with plenty of shear that will aid in the development of
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and damaging
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS is staying very consistent with
a trough in the east and a ridge in the west during the extended
period. The CWA region is sitting in the middle of the two which
brings with it storm potential everyday. By Saturday the upper level
flow starts to decrease in amplitude over the region, with less of a
northwest flow and becoming more westerly. So, even though Saturday
still has storm potential, as of right now, it is not looking like
they will be as intense. Wednesday looks to have the precipitation
potential in the afternoon and early evening primarily in the
eastern portions of the region. The models are in fairly good
agreement on this at this time. Thursday and Friday will bring
continued storm chances due to upper level shortwaves breaking
through the ridge and moving over the area. The bulk shear is not
impressive on those days but CAPE values get up to around 1200 J/kg
over the southern portions of the region. The current model runs
actually pushed the more intense storm potential south of the CWA
compared to the earlier model runs over the last few days. The
latter part of the extended period still has discrepancies between
the models but they are definitely days to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 546 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at MCK and GLD through the TAF
period. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
vicinity of MCK and GLD between 22Z-06Z, but probabilities of
occurrence are low enough for them to be left out of the TAF for
now.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261329
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
729 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorms have redeveloped over the northeast portion of the
area. Mesoanalysis a surface trough and/or outflow boundary that
extends from southwest from between Norton and Hill City. Also
weak shortwave/shear zone and weak right rear quadrant in the
area as well through this morning. So added a slight chance of
thunderstorms for current development and along the boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The zonal westerly flow across the northern half of the U.S.
amplifies into a more meridional pattern through Tuesday as high
pressure strengthens over the 4-corners region with a ridge axis
extending northward. Downstream, the upper flow over the Central
High Plains becomes northwest with several embedded short wave
troughs expected to move across the region in the short term
period.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening with a few marginally severe storms possible
over far northeast Colorado as storms develop over the Cheyenne
ridge during the afternoon, move further east over the plains and
dissipate weaken through the late evening and overnight hours. A
few showers may continue across far southwest Nebraska through the
night.

On Monday there is a slight risk of severe storms across the
forecast area with damaging wind and large hail possible as the
shear increases with the amplifying northwest flow and a cold
front moves into the region from the north northeast between
Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning. Expect showers and a
few storms to linger into early Tuesday and redevelop and become
more widespread again on Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The
return flow around the high pressure area that moves deeper into
the plains states creates a corridor of moisture and instability
with plenty of shear that will aid in the development of
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and damaging
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS is staying very consistent with
a trough in the east and a ridge in the west during the extended
period. The CWA region is sitting in the middle of the two which
brings with it storm potential everyday. By Saturday the upper level
flow starts to decrease in amplitude over the region, with less of a
northwest flow and becoming more westerly. So, even though Saturday
still has storm potential, as of right now, it is not looking like
they will be as intense. Wednesday looks to have the precipitation
potential in the afternoon and early evening primarily in the
eastern portions of the region. The models are in fairly good
agreement on this at this time. Thursday and Friday will bring
continued storm chances due to upper level shortwaves breaking
through the ridge and moving over the area. The bulk shear is not
impressive on those days but CAPE values get up to around 1200 J/kg
over the southern portions of the region. The current model runs
actually pushed the more intense storm potential south of the CWA
compared to the earlier model runs over the last few days. The
latter part of the extended period still has discrepancies between
the models but they are definitely days to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 546 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at MCK and GLD through the TAF
period. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
vicinity of MCK and GLD between 22Z-06Z, but probabilities of
occurrence are low enough for them to be left out of the TAF for
now.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261150
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
550 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The zonal westerly flow across the northern half of the U.S.
amplifies into a more meridional pattern through Tuesday as high
pressure strengthens over the 4-corners region with a ridge axis
extending northward. Downstream, the upper flow over the Central
High Plains becomes northwest with several embedded short wave
troughs expected to move across the region in the short term
period.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening with a few marginally severe storms possible
over far northeast Colorado as storms develop over the Cheyenne
ridge during the afternoon, move further east over the plains and
dissipate weaken through the late evening and overnight hours. A
few showers may continue across far southwest Nebraska through the
night.

On Monday there is a slight risk of severe storms across the
forecast area with damaging wind and large hail possible as the
shear increases with the amplifying northwest flow and a cold
front moves into the region from the north northeast between
Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning. Expect showers and a
few storms to linger into early Tuesday and redevelop and become
more widespread again on Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The
return flow around the high pressure area that moves deeper into
the plains states creates a corridor of moisture and instability
with plenty of shear that will aid in the development of
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and damaging
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS is staying very consistent with
a trough in the east and a ridge in the west during the extended
period. The CWA region is sitting in the middle of the two which
brings with it storm potential everyday. By Saturday the upper level
flow starts to decrease in amplitude over the region, with less of a
northwest flow and becoming more westerly. So, even though Saturday
still has storm potential, as of right now, it is not looking like
they will be as intense. Wednesday looks to have the precipitation
potential in the afternoon and early evening primarily in the
eastern portions of the region. The models are in fairly good
agreement on this at this time. Thursday and Friday will bring
continued storm chances due to upper level shortwaves breaking
through the ridge and moving over the area. The bulk shear is not
impressive on those days but CAPE values get up to around 1200 J/kg
over the southern portions of the region. The current model runs
actually pushed the more intense storm potential south of the CWA
compared to the earlier model runs over the last few days. The
latter part of the extended period still has discrepancies between
the models but they are definitely days to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 546 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at MCK and GLD through the TAF
period. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
vicinity of MCK and GLD between 22Z-06Z, but probabilities of
occurrence are low enough for them to be left out of the TAF for
now.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261150
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
550 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The zonal westerly flow across the northern half of the U.S.
amplifies into a more meridional pattern through Tuesday as high
pressure strengthens over the 4-corners region with a ridge axis
extending northward. Downstream, the upper flow over the Central
High Plains becomes northwest with several embedded short wave
troughs expected to move across the region in the short term
period.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening with a few marginally severe storms possible
over far northeast Colorado as storms develop over the Cheyenne
ridge during the afternoon, move further east over the plains and
dissipate weaken through the late evening and overnight hours. A
few showers may continue across far southwest Nebraska through the
night.

On Monday there is a slight risk of severe storms across the
forecast area with damaging wind and large hail possible as the
shear increases with the amplifying northwest flow and a cold
front moves into the region from the north northeast between
Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning. Expect showers and a
few storms to linger into early Tuesday and redevelop and become
more widespread again on Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The
return flow around the high pressure area that moves deeper into
the plains states creates a corridor of moisture and instability
with plenty of shear that will aid in the development of
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and damaging
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS is staying very consistent with
a trough in the east and a ridge in the west during the extended
period. The CWA region is sitting in the middle of the two which
brings with it storm potential everyday. By Saturday the upper level
flow starts to decrease in amplitude over the region, with less of a
northwest flow and becoming more westerly. So, even though Saturday
still has storm potential, as of right now, it is not looking like
they will be as intense. Wednesday looks to have the precipitation
potential in the afternoon and early evening primarily in the
eastern portions of the region. The models are in fairly good
agreement on this at this time. Thursday and Friday will bring
continued storm chances due to upper level shortwaves breaking
through the ridge and moving over the area. The bulk shear is not
impressive on those days but CAPE values get up to around 1200 J/kg
over the southern portions of the region. The current model runs
actually pushed the more intense storm potential south of the CWA
compared to the earlier model runs over the last few days. The
latter part of the extended period still has discrepancies between
the models but they are definitely days to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 546 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at MCK and GLD through the TAF
period. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the
vicinity of MCK and GLD between 22Z-06Z, but probabilities of
occurrence are low enough for them to be left out of the TAF for
now.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KICT 261147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Cold front that had been fairly well-defined by prognostics the
past 3 nights had become very diffuse during the night, due in no
small part by the numerous showers & thunderstorms that had been
occurring from Wrn KS to extreme SE Nebraska & SW IA. Coverage &
intensity have diminished since about 1 AM, although a cluster of
thunderstorms have visited SC KS since around mid-night but they,
too, have diminished. It remains quite warm & humid as temperatures
are ranging from the upper 70s in Ern KS to around 70 along the wrn
corridor of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Today & Tonight:
With a very warm & moisture-laden airmass entrenched across the KS
neighborhood, scattered thunderstorms will continue across the
region. Airmass will of course destabilize this afternoon but with
strong mid-upper high pressure covering the lower & mid MS Valley
deep-layer shear will continue to be weak. As such, the severe
thunderstorm potential would remain marginal at best. With such
high octane moisture entrenched across the region, locally heavy
rains would continue to be the primary product, especially across
SC & SE KS where precipitable waters will reach into the 2 to 2.25
range late this afternoon & tonight.

Mon-Tue Night:
The intense mid-upper cyclone that had crossed the Saskatchewan/
Manitoba border Sat evening has begun to occlude as it crosses the
Manitoba/Ontario border, however, the character is now expected to
transition into an open wave as it pushes E/SE the Ontario/Quebec
border Mon Morning. This would cause the STRONG & massive mid-upper
high that has been covering the Srn U.S. to slowly retrograde
across the Desert SW Mon & Mon Night & with a 2nd upper-deck short
wave quickly strengthening as it surges SE toward, then across, the
Great Lakes Mon Night, the neighborhood would be under a deepening
NW regime. This, in turn, would drive a weak cold front S/SE across
KS Mon Night. Convergence is weak & with the greatest upper support
targeting the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes the severe thunderstorm
potential across the KS neighborhood would remain in check.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

With the NW regime dominating the Great Plains and occasional weak
shortwaves moving SE into a predominantly moist environment,
scattered thunderstorms would continue across the region throughout
the week. As such, the forecast for these periods remains
unchanged.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main aviation concern will be afternoon/evening storms.

Loosely defined cold front currently stretches from northern
Missour through central KS. This front will again provide the
focus for storm development this afternoon. At this point it
appears locations south of I-70 will have the best chance at
storms generally after 3 pm, with some of this activity lingering
into the evening hours. Heavy rain and wet microburst winds will
be the main threats. With low confidence in the areal coverage,
just ran with VCTS at most sites this afternoon/evening. Outside
of the storms, confidence is high that VFR conditions will
continue.

Lawson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  71  91  70 /  50  60  40  30
Hutchinson      88  68  91  68 /  40  40  40  30
Newton          88  69  90  68 /  40  50  40  30
ElDorado        89  69  90  69 /  40  50  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   91  71  91  70 /  40  60  40  30
Russell         87  67  91  66 /  30  20  40  30
Great Bend      87  67  91  66 /  40  30  40  40
Salina          89  68  92  68 /  30  30  40  30
McPherson       88  68  91  68 /  40  40  40  30
Coffeyville     91  71  91  68 /  50  60  40  20
Chanute         89  70  91  67 /  50  60  40  20
Iola            88  70  91  67 /  50  50  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    90  70  91  68 /  50  60  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL




000
FXUS63 KICT 261147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Cold front that had been fairly well-defined by prognostics the
past 3 nights had become very diffuse during the night, due in no
small part by the numerous showers & thunderstorms that had been
occurring from Wrn KS to extreme SE Nebraska & SW IA. Coverage &
intensity have diminished since about 1 AM, although a cluster of
thunderstorms have visited SC KS since around mid-night but they,
too, have diminished. It remains quite warm & humid as temperatures
are ranging from the upper 70s in Ern KS to around 70 along the wrn
corridor of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Today & Tonight:
With a very warm & moisture-laden airmass entrenched across the KS
neighborhood, scattered thunderstorms will continue across the
region. Airmass will of course destabilize this afternoon but with
strong mid-upper high pressure covering the lower & mid MS Valley
deep-layer shear will continue to be weak. As such, the severe
thunderstorm potential would remain marginal at best. With such
high octane moisture entrenched across the region, locally heavy
rains would continue to be the primary product, especially across
SC & SE KS where precipitable waters will reach into the 2 to 2.25
range late this afternoon & tonight.

Mon-Tue Night:
The intense mid-upper cyclone that had crossed the Saskatchewan/
Manitoba border Sat evening has begun to occlude as it crosses the
Manitoba/Ontario border, however, the character is now expected to
transition into an open wave as it pushes E/SE the Ontario/Quebec
border Mon Morning. This would cause the STRONG & massive mid-upper
high that has been covering the Srn U.S. to slowly retrograde
across the Desert SW Mon & Mon Night & with a 2nd upper-deck short
wave quickly strengthening as it surges SE toward, then across, the
Great Lakes Mon Night, the neighborhood would be under a deepening
NW regime. This, in turn, would drive a weak cold front S/SE across
KS Mon Night. Convergence is weak & with the greatest upper support
targeting the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes the severe thunderstorm
potential across the KS neighborhood would remain in check.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

With the NW regime dominating the Great Plains and occasional weak
shortwaves moving SE into a predominantly moist environment,
scattered thunderstorms would continue across the region throughout
the week. As such, the forecast for these periods remains
unchanged.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main aviation concern will be afternoon/evening storms.

Loosely defined cold front currently stretches from northern
Missour through central KS. This front will again provide the
focus for storm development this afternoon. At this point it
appears locations south of I-70 will have the best chance at
storms generally after 3 pm, with some of this activity lingering
into the evening hours. Heavy rain and wet microburst winds will
be the main threats. With low confidence in the areal coverage,
just ran with VCTS at most sites this afternoon/evening. Outside
of the storms, confidence is high that VFR conditions will
continue.

Lawson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  71  91  70 /  50  60  40  30
Hutchinson      88  68  91  68 /  40  40  40  30
Newton          88  69  90  68 /  40  50  40  30
ElDorado        89  69  90  69 /  40  50  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   91  71  91  70 /  40  60  40  30
Russell         87  67  91  66 /  30  20  40  30
Great Bend      87  67  91  66 /  40  30  40  40
Salina          89  68  92  68 /  30  30  40  30
McPherson       88  68  91  68 /  40  40  40  30
Coffeyville     91  71  91  68 /  50  60  40  20
Chanute         89  70  91  67 /  50  60  40  20
Iola            88  70  91  67 /  50  50  40  20
Parsons-KPPF    90  70  91  68 /  50  60  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261143
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
643 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was ongoing as of 0540 UTC, but
it has transitioned more to a post-stratiform event per the latest
radar trends. Radar echoes in the post-stratiform region were fairly
widespread across southwest Kansas, and the entire area was moving
extremely slowly. This should slowly dissolve through 1200 UTC, but
a remnant mesoscale convective vort (MCV) center will likely persist
through the day Sunday. This, combined with the remnant surface
front and abundant moisture already in place (both lower and mid
tropospheric) will likely initiate new thunderstorm activity once
late June insolation deepens and destabilizes the boundary layer. We
will ramp the POPs back up to 40-55 percent generally
along/southeast of Highway 54. The preponderance of the model
solutions are fairly in line with this thinking.

The low level frontogenesis will not be strong like yesterday, so
it is much more unclear how the evolution will be after convective
initiation, and exactly which areas will see the greatest chance
for heavy rainfall. The synoptic pressure gradient will be
extremely weak across the Central Plains, so it will be difficult
to find a coherent focus for convective initiation. The lack of
wind flow in the lower troposphere (and even the mid troposphere)
will significantly limit severe weather and will probably preclude
MCS development. As such, we will not carry very high POPs in the
Tonight period across a good portion of southwest and west central
Kansas. That said, a small MCS may develop well to the northwest
across northeast CO/southwest NE which would drift southeast into
far northwest KS. By the time it even reaches northwest KS,
though, it will be quite late in the evening, and there is little
indication that it will progress much farther south than that
given the poor downstream inflow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

This week will feature daily/nightly thunderstorm chances as we
enter a very favorable pattern for MCS activity. Generally in mid
to late June, a west-northwest or northwest flow pattern in the
mid-upper troposphere favors organized thunderstorm activity
across the western plains given the fact that abundant post-
frontal moisture exists this far into the warm season and fronts,
in general, tend to wash out across the Central Plains given a
weaker jet stream. This certainly appears to be the case all this
week and into the following weekend. Daily, subsynoptic
perturbations within the longer wave pattern will most certainly
dictate location, strength, and timing of MCS activity. The first
significant looking convective signal in this Long Term period is
late Monday/Monday Night as a weak jet streak moves from the
Northern Plains into the Midwest region. Thunderstorm activity
will likely develop across western Nebraska Monday and develop
into one or two fairly formidable MCSs as the activity rolls
south/southeast toward western Kansas. There is a fairly strong
signal among all three major global spectral model (GSM) solutions
/ECMWF, GFS, GEM/ that something significant will roll south
through the night Monday Night.

We may see a bit of a break Tuesday as the atmosphere recovers, but
another MCS will probably develop again over western Nebraska late
Tuesday into Tuesday Night. The signal in the GSM is that whatever
forms Tuesday Night will probably roll just east of the southwest
Kansas region into north central/northeast KS by late Tuesday
Night/early Wednesday. If that is the case, it would leave much of
western Kansas untouched on Wednesday for what could be the best
looking setup of the first three days (Mon-Wed) for severe weather
across our region. The GSM consensus is that a surface low would
develop somewhere across southwest KS (or very near) with a
potential outflow boundary enhancing low level baroclinicity.
Northwest flow in the upper troposphere by then would be in the 35
to 50 knot range, which would be enough deep layer shear to
support organized severe thunderstorm activity.

As we head into late week/next weekend, the GSM solutions all show a
rather formidable trough diving down into the Upper Midwest with a
chilly, Canadian surface high spreading south across the Northern
Plains. A sharp front, by summer standards, could be in play across
Kansas which would provide an even better opportunity for severe
local storms and potential heavy rainfall. It is quite possible one
or two days in the Friday-Sunday time frame, toward the end of this
forecast period, could see daytime highs in the 70s.

The total accumulation of rainfall throughout this entire Long Term
period (Monday through Saturday) could be quite excessive for
many across the western half of Kansas, including widespread 2 to
4 inches with some smaller pockets of 5+ inches in the areas that
see multiple MCS passages. This is not good news for agricultural
interests that are still cutting wheat, especially up north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weak summertime flow regime will prevail in Kansas today. A
weak cold front that extended from northeast Kansas into the Texas
Panhandle early today will become stationary from southeast Kansas
to the northern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. A weak upper level
trough extending from north central into southwest Kansas should
propagate slowly southeast and weaken by afternoon. Widespread
cirriform cloudiness with ceilings near 200 early in the day will
erode during the morning hours. Scattered cumulus cloudiness with
bases near 040 can be expected to develop by late morning and
dissipate before sunset.

Low level winds will be light and somewhat variable this morning
and will become east around 10 kts this afternoon. A few showers
will persist through 13Z near HYS, and scattered thunderstorms are
likely to develop near the weak upper level trough from central
into south central Kansas by early afternoon. The thunderstorms
likely will remain southeast of the TAF sites. Thunderstorms may
develop in northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas late this
afternoon and propagate south across extreme western Kansas this
evening but should remain west of the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  90  66 /  40  40  30  40
GCK  86  65  89  66 /  30  30  30  40
EHA  87  64  89  65 /  30  30  30  30
LBL  88  66  90  66 /  40  40  30  40
HYS  85  66  90  66 /  30  20  20  40
P28  92  70  91  69 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Ruthi




000
FXUS63 KTOP 261134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
634 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Early this morning the mid-level trough was tracking eastward across
the northern U.S. toward the Great Lakes region.  At the surface,
the cold front was stretched across north central Kansas and was
very slowly shifting southeastward. Models show this boundary
bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast by around sunrise and
shifting south of I-70 by late morning/early afternoon.  There are
still some slight model discrepancies with when the boundary will
move south of the forecast area, as some models show the front still
being hung-up across east central Kansas late this afternoon into
early this evening.  Early this morning scattered showers and storms
developed along the front across north central Kansas, however the
line of precipitation has weakened significantly. Short-range models
show this broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
continuing to develop along the boundary across portions of north
central and northeast Kansas this morning. Conditions should
destabilize enough this afternoon to spark additional isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. In fact, model
soundings show the cap eroding away by early afternoon, allowing
for surface-based storms to develop along the boundary. The best
potential for redevelopment should be generally along and south of I-
70, but if the front slows its southward progression then
precipitation chances may extend further north. Models show that
MUCAPE values may be upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg, but 0-6km bulk shear
values continue to look very weak at 20-25kts. With these conditions
in place, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong storms to
develop this afternoon into this evening, with the main hazards
being hail and strong winds. PWAT values may reach upwards of 1.9 to
2.1 inches, so any storms that develop may be capable of producing
some quick, heavy rainfall. However, due to the expected isolated to
scattered nature of the storms, do not anticipate any flooding
concerns at this time.  There is some model uncertainty with how
quickly any storms will shift southward out of the area. If
anything, have diminishing PoPs across east central Kansas during
the evening and overnight hours.

As for temperatures, the increased cloud cover through the day along
with weak northeast/easterly winds will result in cooler
temperatures with afternoon highs only reaching into the upper
80s/near 90 degrees. With some diminishing cloud cover across
northern Kansas tonight, expect low temperatures to drop into the
upper 60s to low 70s from north to south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The long term period will be characterized on a broad scale by
persistent northwesterly flow, and while Monday will be warm in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, expect to see a cooler period for
Tuesday and beyond as that more northerly component to the flow
pattern brings a somewhat cooler airmass into the local area.

After a warm day on Monday, expect an axis of instability to
develop across the area with the greatest instability and moisture
likely focused over the southwest portions of the forecast area
close to weak surface front. A short wave trough is forecast to
move out of western Nebraska and across Kansas by late Monday and
this appears to be a fair setup for afternoon thunderstorm
development possibly growing upscale into an MCS. The best focus
for a forward propagating MCS with damaging wind potential appears
to run through north central KS and areas to the south southeast.
This will continue through the evening with a cold front pushing
through behind the short wave passage. While some models continue
developing precip through the day on Tuesday, it seems highly
unlikely in the stable post-frontal airmass across the area and
have gone with a dry forecast for Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning features another favorable
setup for an MCS across the central Plains as thunderstorms are
likely to develop and organize across western SD and the Nebraska
panhandle in association with a short wave/jet max, and then
accelerate to the southeast into Kansas. Expect this system to
follow the instability axis as it moves into Kansas, and current
indications are that the far eastern fringes of the MCS may impact
western parts of the local forecast area, but still with some
uncertainty in the location of the instability gradient. Wind
fields warrant at least some potential for this storm system to
produce damaging wind if it indeed forward propagates into parts
of north central KS.

Another strong upper trough will dive across the northern Plains
into the Great Lakes by late Thursday, bringing another good
chance for widespread thunderstorms as it pushes a strong front
into northeast KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Expect some isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop near
the TAF sites late morning through this afternoon. At this time,
confidence is higher in storms impacting KMHK so have included a
TEMPO group. These storms should shift south of the TAF sites by
late this afternoon. Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 261134
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
634 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Early this morning the mid-level trough was tracking eastward across
the northern U.S. toward the Great Lakes region.  At the surface,
the cold front was stretched across north central Kansas and was
very slowly shifting southeastward. Models show this boundary
bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast by around sunrise and
shifting south of I-70 by late morning/early afternoon.  There are
still some slight model discrepancies with when the boundary will
move south of the forecast area, as some models show the front still
being hung-up across east central Kansas late this afternoon into
early this evening.  Early this morning scattered showers and storms
developed along the front across north central Kansas, however the
line of precipitation has weakened significantly. Short-range models
show this broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms
continuing to develop along the boundary across portions of north
central and northeast Kansas this morning. Conditions should
destabilize enough this afternoon to spark additional isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. In fact, model
soundings show the cap eroding away by early afternoon, allowing
for surface-based storms to develop along the boundary. The best
potential for redevelopment should be generally along and south of I-
70, but if the front slows its southward progression then
precipitation chances may extend further north. Models show that
MUCAPE values may be upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg, but 0-6km bulk shear
values continue to look very weak at 20-25kts. With these conditions
in place, cannot rule out the potential for a few strong storms to
develop this afternoon into this evening, with the main hazards
being hail and strong winds. PWAT values may reach upwards of 1.9 to
2.1 inches, so any storms that develop may be capable of producing
some quick, heavy rainfall. However, due to the expected isolated to
scattered nature of the storms, do not anticipate any flooding
concerns at this time.  There is some model uncertainty with how
quickly any storms will shift southward out of the area. If
anything, have diminishing PoPs across east central Kansas during
the evening and overnight hours.

As for temperatures, the increased cloud cover through the day along
with weak northeast/easterly winds will result in cooler
temperatures with afternoon highs only reaching into the upper
80s/near 90 degrees. With some diminishing cloud cover across
northern Kansas tonight, expect low temperatures to drop into the
upper 60s to low 70s from north to south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The long term period will be characterized on a broad scale by
persistent northwesterly flow, and while Monday will be warm in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, expect to see a cooler period for
Tuesday and beyond as that more northerly component to the flow
pattern brings a somewhat cooler airmass into the local area.

After a warm day on Monday, expect an axis of instability to
develop across the area with the greatest instability and moisture
likely focused over the southwest portions of the forecast area
close to weak surface front. A short wave trough is forecast to
move out of western Nebraska and across Kansas by late Monday and
this appears to be a fair setup for afternoon thunderstorm
development possibly growing upscale into an MCS. The best focus
for a forward propagating MCS with damaging wind potential appears
to run through north central KS and areas to the south southeast.
This will continue through the evening with a cold front pushing
through behind the short wave passage. While some models continue
developing precip through the day on Tuesday, it seems highly
unlikely in the stable post-frontal airmass across the area and
have gone with a dry forecast for Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning features another favorable
setup for an MCS across the central Plains as thunderstorms are
likely to develop and organize across western SD and the Nebraska
panhandle in association with a short wave/jet max, and then
accelerate to the southeast into Kansas. Expect this system to
follow the instability axis as it moves into Kansas, and current
indications are that the far eastern fringes of the MCS may impact
western parts of the local forecast area, but still with some
uncertainty in the location of the instability gradient. Wind
fields warrant at least some potential for this storm system to
produce damaging wind if it indeed forward propagates into parts
of north central KS.

Another strong upper trough will dive across the northern Plains
into the Great Lakes by late Thursday, bringing another good
chance for widespread thunderstorms as it pushes a strong front
into northeast KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Expect some isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop near
the TAF sites late morning through this afternoon. At this time,
confidence is higher in storms impacting KMHK so have included a
TEMPO group. These storms should shift south of the TAF sites by
late this afternoon. Winds will be light through the period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261111
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
511 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The zonal westerly flow across the northern half of the U.S.
amplifies into a more meridional pattern through Tuesday as high
pressure strengthens over the 4-corners region with a ridge axis
extending northward. Downstream, the upper flow over the Central
High Plains becomes northwest with several embedded short wave
troughs expected to move across the region in the short term
period.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and evening with a few marginally severe storms possible
over far northeast Colorado as storms develop over the Cheyenne
ridge during the afternoon, move further east over the plains and
dissipate weaken through the late evening and overnight hours. A
few showers may continue across far southwest Nebraska through the
night.

On Monday there is a slight risk of severe storms across the
forecast area with damaging wind and large hail possible as the
shear increases with the amplifying northwest flow and a cold
front moves into the region from the north northeast between
Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning. Expect showers and a
few storms to linger into early Tuesday and redevelop and become
more widespread again on Tuesday late afternoon and evening. The
return flow around the high pressure area that moves deeper into
the plains states creates a corridor of moisture and instability
with plenty of shear that will aid in the development of
thunderstorms with the potential for large hail and damaging
winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 213 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS is staying very consistent with
a trough in the east and a ridge in the west during the extended
period. The CWA region is sitting in the middle of the two which
brings with it storm potential everyday. By Saturday the upper level
flow starts to decrease in amplitude over the region, with less of a
northwest flow and becoming more westerly. So, even though Saturday
still has storm potential, as of right now, it is not looking like
they will be as intense. Wednesday looks to have the precipitation
potential in the afternoon and early evening primarily in the
eastern portions of the region. The models are in fairly good
agreement on this at this time. Thursday and Friday will bring
continued storm chances due to upper level shortwaves breaking
through the ridge and moving over the area. The bulk shear is not
impressive on those days but CAPE values get up to around 1200 J/kg
over the southern portions of the region. The current model runs
actually pushed the more intense storm potential south of the CWA
compared to the earlier model runs over the last few days. The
latter part of the extended period still has discrepancies between
the models but they are definitely days to keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Conditions...VFR...with scattered mid and high clouds.

Precip/Wx....None expected.

Winds........For KGLD...light/variable conditions give way to ENE
around 10 kts by 12z. By 16z...ESE around 10 kts. From 20z Sunday
onward...SSE around 10 kts (w/ gusts to 20 kts 20z Sunday-00z
Monday). For KMCK...light/variable conditions thru 14z Sunday...
shifting to the SSE around 10 kts by 19z Sunday.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JN




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