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000
FXUS63 KICT 281202
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH SUN MRNG & LKLY BEYOND
WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU VACATING SE KS ~15Z. SE WINDS 9-13KTS/10-15
MPH PREVAIL ACRS SC & SE KS WITH CNTRL KS TERMINALS E-NE WINDS
LESS THAN 7KTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SE & INCRG TO 13KTS/15MPH
SUSTAINED THIS AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME DUE S THIS EVE & INCR TO
17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH THE SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ACRS
CNTRL & SC KS.

*CORRECTED TYPING IN 6TH LINE OF TEXT*

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 281202
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH SUN MRNG & LKLY BEYOND
WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU VACATING SE KS ~15Z. SE WINDS 9-13KTS/10-15
MPH PREVAIL ACRS SC & SE KS WITH CNTRL KS TERMINALS E-NE WINDS
LESS THAN 7KTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SE & INCRG TO 13KTS/15MPH
SUSTAINED THIS AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME DUE S THIS EVE & INCR TO
17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH THE SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ACRS
CNTRL & SC KS.

*CORRECTED TYPING IN 6TH LINE OF TEXT*

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281202
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH SUN MRNG & LKLY BEYOND
WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU VACATING SE KS ~15Z. SE WINDS 9-13KTS/10-15
MPH PREVAIL ACRS SC & SE KS WITH CNTRL KS TERMINALS E-NE WINDS
LESS THAN 7KTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SE & INCRG TO 13KTS/15MPH
SUSTAINED THIS AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME DUE S THIS EVE & INCR TO
17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH THE SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ACRS
CNTRL & SC KS.

*CORRECTED TYPING IN 6TH LINE OF TEXT*

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 281202
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH SUN MRNG & LKLY BEYOND
WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU VACATING SE KS ~15Z. SE WINDS 9-13KTS/10-15
MPH PREVAIL ACRS SC & SE KS WITH CNTRL KS TERMINALS E-NE WINDS
LESS THAN 7KTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SE & INCRG TO 13KTS/15MPH
SUSTAINED THIS AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME DUE S THIS EVE & INCR TO
17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WITH THE SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ACRS
CNTRL & SC KS.

*CORRECTED TYPING IN 6TH LINE OF TEXT*

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH SUN MRNG & LKLY BEYOND
WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU VACATING SE KS ~15Z. SE WINDS 9-13KTS/10-15
MPH PREVAIL ACRS SC & SE KS WITH CNTRL KS TERMINALS E-NE WINDS
LESS THAN 7KTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SE & INCRG TO 13KTS/15MPH
SUSTAINED THIS AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME DUE S THIS EVE & INCR TO
17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WIT THE SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ACRS
CNTRL & SC KS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH SUN MRNG & LKLY BEYOND
WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU VACATING SE KS ~15Z. SE WINDS 9-13KTS/10-15
MPH PREVAIL ACRS SC & SE KS WITH CNTRL KS TERMINALS E-NE WINDS
LESS THAN 7KTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SE & INCRG TO 13KTS/15MPH
SUSTAINED THIS AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME DUE S THIS EVE & INCR TO
17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WIT THE SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ACRS
CNTRL & SC KS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 281200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

ALL AREAS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS THROUGH SUN MRNG & LKLY BEYOND
WITH ~10,000FT ALTOCU VACATING SE KS ~15Z. SE WINDS 9-13KTS/10-15
MPH PREVAIL ACRS SC & SE KS WITH CNTRL KS TERMINALS E-NE WINDS
LESS THAN 7KTS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SE & INCRG TO 13KTS/15MPH
SUSTAINED THIS AFTN. WINDS TO BECOME DUE S THIS EVE & INCR TO
17-22KTS/20-25MPH SUSTAINED WIT THE SLGTLY STRONGER WINDS ACRS
CNTRL & SC KS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 281112
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF 10000-20000FT CIGS TONIGHT BUT DUE TO VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLIGHT REDUCTION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 281112
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF 10000-20000FT CIGS TONIGHT BUT DUE TO VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLIGHT REDUCTION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 281112
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF 10000-20000FT CIGS TONIGHT BUT DUE TO VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLIGHT REDUCTION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
FIRE WEATHER...JRM


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 281107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Early Saturday morning, a weak trough evident in surface pressure
analysis and implied in WV imagery was moving south across eastern
Nebraska. West-to-east isentropic upslope flow in the mid levels was
being enhanced in advance of this wave, and was resulting in
increasing radar returns across southeast NE and eastern KS. The
reflectivity patterns also indicate that the lift was being enhanced
by weak convective instability on the west edge of this precip and
CSI in far northeast KS and northwest MO. Dry air in the lowest 5000
feet AGL (evident in the 00Z TOP RAOB) was inhibiting much of this
precip from reaching the ground, but decreasing dewpoint depressions
and radar reflectivity noted lower in the vertical suggests that
pockets of sprinkles or even light snow showers may be reaching the
ground in eastern KS. The enhanced reflectivity is also training
over the same areas which will help continue to saturate down and
expect slightly increased coverage of light showers in the near
term. However, subsidence will take over as the weak trough passes,
and expect this light activity to come to an end shortly after
sunrise with decreasing cloud cover through the morning. Winds will
become southerly through the day and sunshine should bring temps
into the middle 50s east and middle 60s in central KS.

A fairly strong short wave trough, currently coming on shore in the
NW CONUS, will track across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley by early Sunday morning. This system will aid in
developing a strong LLJ overhead with persistent isentropic ascent
tonight. Additionally, a surface front will enter the forecast area
on Sunday morning. Currently expect to have weak elevated
instability above the LLJ moisture advection as mid level
temperatures cool near sunrise. This should result in scattered
shower development, and while a thunderstorm is not totally out of
the question have not included it in the forecast at this time given
rather weak instability. Overnight low temperatures will be a bit
warmer with persistent southerly winds and some warm advection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave trough tracking across
the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, which
will help to push a weak cold front into north central Kansas Sunday
morning and exit the area Sunday afternoon. While the models are in
good agreement that the better moisture and lift will be focused
further north and east, there is still some uncertainty with how far
into the forecast area the light rain will extend. Have kept low-end
chance PoPs in far northeast Kansas as they should be clipped by
some showers, but have dry conditions by the afternoon hours.
Despite the shift to northwesterly winds behind the frontal passage,
there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air advection and
have high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

Dry and mild conditions are expected for early next week as surface
high pressure advances into the area Sunday night and progresses to
the southeast by Monday. As a result, southwesterly surface winds
are expected and will lead to decent warm air advection through the
early half of next week. Have continued to trend on the warmer side
of guidance with Monday highs in the low/mid 70s and Tuesday highs
in the mid/upper 70s. The 00z model runs have continued with the
slower progression of the next storm system. Models show a mid-level
trough advancing eastward over the Rockies on Wednesday which will
help to push a low-pressure system and associated cold front
eastward across the CWA Wednesday night rather than on Wednesday (as
the previous 00z model runs were showing). As a result, continued
southwesterly flow on Wednesday should keep high temperatures warm
in the mid/upper 70s. While most of the moisture and forcing will be
focused along and behind the cold front, some models are suggesting
that some lift will be present ahead of the boundary to promote some
light scattered precipitation Wednesday afternoon over east central
Kansas, so have slight chance PoPs in for much of the area with
chance PoPs over north central Kansas as thunderstorms may develop
as early as late afternoon. The GFS shows a stronger system than the
ECMWF with decent enough CAPE and bulk shear values to suggest the
potential for some severe weather, so will need to continue to
monitor this potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening.

Models become much more inconsistent Thursday into Friday as the GFS
is much more progressive with the passage of the cold front and
clearing precipitation out of the area Thursday morning.  While both
the GFS and ECMWF show a trough developing over the Rockies Thursday
night, the trough is much more pronounced from the ECMWF while the
GFS simply shows a weak shortwave. As a result, the ECMWF brings a
stronger wave into the area Thursday night into Friday. The
discrepancies in the strength of this next system has led to
uncertainties in temperatures as well as precipitation chances. Due
to the low confidence in this part of the forecast, decided to stay with
the model consensus for the Thursday/Friday forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with persistent
wind from east to southeast at 8 to 14 kts through the day. Winds
increase with gusts by late evening. There is a chance for LLWS by
06Z with 50 kt southwest winds developing around 1800 ft AGL, and
also a small chance for showers after 09Z...but VFR remains likely
and shower coverage did not warrant inclusion in TAF at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Early Saturday morning, a weak trough evident in surface pressure
analysis and implied in WV imagery was moving south across eastern
Nebraska. West-to-east isentropic upslope flow in the mid levels was
being enhanced in advance of this wave, and was resulting in
increasing radar returns across southeast NE and eastern KS. The
reflectivity patterns also indicate that the lift was being enhanced
by weak convective instability on the west edge of this precip and
CSI in far northeast KS and northwest MO. Dry air in the lowest 5000
feet AGL (evident in the 00Z TOP RAOB) was inhibiting much of this
precip from reaching the ground, but decreasing dewpoint depressions
and radar reflectivity noted lower in the vertical suggests that
pockets of sprinkles or even light snow showers may be reaching the
ground in eastern KS. The enhanced reflectivity is also training
over the same areas which will help continue to saturate down and
expect slightly increased coverage of light showers in the near
term. However, subsidence will take over as the weak trough passes,
and expect this light activity to come to an end shortly after
sunrise with decreasing cloud cover through the morning. Winds will
become southerly through the day and sunshine should bring temps
into the middle 50s east and middle 60s in central KS.

A fairly strong short wave trough, currently coming on shore in the
NW CONUS, will track across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley by early Sunday morning. This system will aid in
developing a strong LLJ overhead with persistent isentropic ascent
tonight. Additionally, a surface front will enter the forecast area
on Sunday morning. Currently expect to have weak elevated
instability above the LLJ moisture advection as mid level
temperatures cool near sunrise. This should result in scattered
shower development, and while a thunderstorm is not totally out of
the question have not included it in the forecast at this time given
rather weak instability. Overnight low temperatures will be a bit
warmer with persistent southerly winds and some warm advection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave trough tracking across
the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, which
will help to push a weak cold front into north central Kansas Sunday
morning and exit the area Sunday afternoon. While the models are in
good agreement that the better moisture and lift will be focused
further north and east, there is still some uncertainty with how far
into the forecast area the light rain will extend. Have kept low-end
chance PoPs in far northeast Kansas as they should be clipped by
some showers, but have dry conditions by the afternoon hours.
Despite the shift to northwesterly winds behind the frontal passage,
there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air advection and
have high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

Dry and mild conditions are expected for early next week as surface
high pressure advances into the area Sunday night and progresses to
the southeast by Monday. As a result, southwesterly surface winds
are expected and will lead to decent warm air advection through the
early half of next week. Have continued to trend on the warmer side
of guidance with Monday highs in the low/mid 70s and Tuesday highs
in the mid/upper 70s. The 00z model runs have continued with the
slower progression of the next storm system. Models show a mid-level
trough advancing eastward over the Rockies on Wednesday which will
help to push a low-pressure system and associated cold front
eastward across the CWA Wednesday night rather than on Wednesday (as
the previous 00z model runs were showing). As a result, continued
southwesterly flow on Wednesday should keep high temperatures warm
in the mid/upper 70s. While most of the moisture and forcing will be
focused along and behind the cold front, some models are suggesting
that some lift will be present ahead of the boundary to promote some
light scattered precipitation Wednesday afternoon over east central
Kansas, so have slight chance PoPs in for much of the area with
chance PoPs over north central Kansas as thunderstorms may develop
as early as late afternoon. The GFS shows a stronger system than the
ECMWF with decent enough CAPE and bulk shear values to suggest the
potential for some severe weather, so will need to continue to
monitor this potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening.

Models become much more inconsistent Thursday into Friday as the GFS
is much more progressive with the passage of the cold front and
clearing precipitation out of the area Thursday morning.  While both
the GFS and ECMWF show a trough developing over the Rockies Thursday
night, the trough is much more pronounced from the ECMWF while the
GFS simply shows a weak shortwave. As a result, the ECMWF brings a
stronger wave into the area Thursday night into Friday. The
discrepancies in the strength of this next system has led to
uncertainties in temperatures as well as precipitation chances. Due
to the low confidence in this part of the forecast, decided to stay with
the model consensus for the Thursday/Friday forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with persistent
wind from east to southeast at 8 to 14 kts through the day. Winds
increase with gusts by late evening. There is a chance for LLWS by
06Z with 50 kt southwest winds developing around 1800 ft AGL, and
also a small chance for showers after 09Z...but VFR remains likely
and shower coverage did not warrant inclusion in TAF at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 281107
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Early Saturday morning, a weak trough evident in surface pressure
analysis and implied in WV imagery was moving south across eastern
Nebraska. West-to-east isentropic upslope flow in the mid levels was
being enhanced in advance of this wave, and was resulting in
increasing radar returns across southeast NE and eastern KS. The
reflectivity patterns also indicate that the lift was being enhanced
by weak convective instability on the west edge of this precip and
CSI in far northeast KS and northwest MO. Dry air in the lowest 5000
feet AGL (evident in the 00Z TOP RAOB) was inhibiting much of this
precip from reaching the ground, but decreasing dewpoint depressions
and radar reflectivity noted lower in the vertical suggests that
pockets of sprinkles or even light snow showers may be reaching the
ground in eastern KS. The enhanced reflectivity is also training
over the same areas which will help continue to saturate down and
expect slightly increased coverage of light showers in the near
term. However, subsidence will take over as the weak trough passes,
and expect this light activity to come to an end shortly after
sunrise with decreasing cloud cover through the morning. Winds will
become southerly through the day and sunshine should bring temps
into the middle 50s east and middle 60s in central KS.

A fairly strong short wave trough, currently coming on shore in the
NW CONUS, will track across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley by early Sunday morning. This system will aid in
developing a strong LLJ overhead with persistent isentropic ascent
tonight. Additionally, a surface front will enter the forecast area
on Sunday morning. Currently expect to have weak elevated
instability above the LLJ moisture advection as mid level
temperatures cool near sunrise. This should result in scattered
shower development, and while a thunderstorm is not totally out of
the question have not included it in the forecast at this time given
rather weak instability. Overnight low temperatures will be a bit
warmer with persistent southerly winds and some warm advection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave trough tracking across
the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, which
will help to push a weak cold front into north central Kansas Sunday
morning and exit the area Sunday afternoon. While the models are in
good agreement that the better moisture and lift will be focused
further north and east, there is still some uncertainty with how far
into the forecast area the light rain will extend. Have kept low-end
chance PoPs in far northeast Kansas as they should be clipped by
some showers, but have dry conditions by the afternoon hours.
Despite the shift to northwesterly winds behind the frontal passage,
there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air advection and
have high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

Dry and mild conditions are expected for early next week as surface
high pressure advances into the area Sunday night and progresses to
the southeast by Monday. As a result, southwesterly surface winds
are expected and will lead to decent warm air advection through the
early half of next week. Have continued to trend on the warmer side
of guidance with Monday highs in the low/mid 70s and Tuesday highs
in the mid/upper 70s. The 00z model runs have continued with the
slower progression of the next storm system. Models show a mid-level
trough advancing eastward over the Rockies on Wednesday which will
help to push a low-pressure system and associated cold front
eastward across the CWA Wednesday night rather than on Wednesday (as
the previous 00z model runs were showing). As a result, continued
southwesterly flow on Wednesday should keep high temperatures warm
in the mid/upper 70s. While most of the moisture and forcing will be
focused along and behind the cold front, some models are suggesting
that some lift will be present ahead of the boundary to promote some
light scattered precipitation Wednesday afternoon over east central
Kansas, so have slight chance PoPs in for much of the area with
chance PoPs over north central Kansas as thunderstorms may develop
as early as late afternoon. The GFS shows a stronger system than the
ECMWF with decent enough CAPE and bulk shear values to suggest the
potential for some severe weather, so will need to continue to
monitor this potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening.

Models become much more inconsistent Thursday into Friday as the GFS
is much more progressive with the passage of the cold front and
clearing precipitation out of the area Thursday morning.  While both
the GFS and ECMWF show a trough developing over the Rockies Thursday
night, the trough is much more pronounced from the ECMWF while the
GFS simply shows a weak shortwave. As a result, the ECMWF brings a
stronger wave into the area Thursday night into Friday. The
discrepancies in the strength of this next system has led to
uncertainties in temperatures as well as precipitation chances. Due
to the low confidence in this part of the forecast, decided to stay with
the model consensus for the Thursday/Friday forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period with persistent
wind from east to southeast at 8 to 14 kts through the day. Winds
increase with gusts by late evening. There is a chance for LLWS by
06Z with 50 kt southwest winds developing around 1800 ft AGL, and
also a small chance for showers after 09Z...but VFR remains likely
and shower coverage did not warrant inclusion in TAF at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280912
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
412 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Early Saturday morning, a weak trough evident in surface pressure
analysis and implied in WV imagery was moving south across eastern
Nebraska. West-to-east isentropic upslope flow in the mid levels was
being enhanced in advance of this wave, and was resulting in
increasing radar returns across southeast NE and eastern KS. The
reflectivity patterns also indicate that the lift was being enhanced
by weak convective instability on the west edge of this precip and
CSI in far northeast KS and northwest MO. Dry air in the lowest 5000
feet AGL (evident in the 00Z TOP RAOB) was inhibiting much of this
precip from reaching the ground, but decreasing dewpoint depressions
and radar reflectivity noted lower in the vertical suggests that
pockets of sprinkles or even light snow showers may be reaching the
ground in eastern KS. The enhanced reflectivity is also training
over the same areas which will help continue to saturate down and
expect slightly increased coverage of light showers in the near
term. However, subsidence will take over as the weak trough passes,
and expect this light activity to come to an end shortly after
sunrise with decreasing cloud cover through the morning. Winds will
become southerly through the day and sunshine should bring temps
into the middle 50s east and middle 60s in central KS.

A fairly strong short wave trough, currently coming on shore in the
NW CONUS, will track across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley by early Sunday morning. This system will aid in
developing a strong LLJ overhead with persistent isentropic ascent
tonight. Additionally, a surface front will enter the forecast area
on Sunday morning. Currently expect to have weak elevated
instability above the LLJ moisture advection as mid level
temperatures cool near sunrise. This should result in scattered
shower development, and while a thunderstorm is not totally out of
the question have not included it in the forecast at this time given
rather weak instability. Overnight low temperatures will be a bit
warmer with persistent southerly winds and some warm advection.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave trough tracking across
the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, which
will help to push a weak cold front into north central Kansas Sunday
morning and exit the area Sunday afternoon. While the models are in
good agreement that the better moisture and lift will be focused
further north and east, there is still some uncertainty with how far
into the forecast area the light rain will extend. Have kept low-end
chance PoPs in far northeast Kansas as they should be clipped by
some showers, but have dry conditions by the afternoon hours.
Despite the shift to northwesterly winds behind the frontal passage,
there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air advection and
have high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

Dry and mild conditions are expected for early next week as surface
high pressure advances into the area Sunday night and progresses to
the southeast by Monday. As a result, southwesterly surface winds
are expected and will lead to decent warm air advection through the
early half of next week. Have continued to trend on the warmer side
of guidance with Monday highs in the low/mid 70s and Tuesday highs
in the mid/upper 70s. The 00z model runs have continued with the
slower progression of the next storm system. Models show a mid-level
trough advancing eastward over the Rockies on Wednesday which will
help to push a low-pressure system and associated cold front
eastward across the CWA Wednesday night rather than on Wednesday (as
the previous 00z model runs were showing). As a result, continued
southwesterly flow on Wednesday should keep high temperatures warm
in the mid/upper 70s. While most of the moisture and forcing will be
focused along and behind the cold front, some models are suggesting
that some lift will be present ahead of the boundary to promote some
light scattered precipitation Wednesday afternoon over east central
Kansas, so have slight chance PoPs in for much of the area with
chance PoPs over north central Kansas as thunderstorms may develop
as early as late afternoon. The GFS shows a stronger system than the
ECMWF with decent enough CAPE and bulk shear values to suggest the
potential for some severe weather, so will need to continue to
monitor this potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening.

Models become much more inconsistent Thursday into Friday as the GFS
is much more progressive with the passage of the cold front and
clearing precipitation out of the area Thursday morning.  While both
the GFS and ECMWF show a trough developing over the Rockies Thursday
night, the trough is much more pronounced from the ECMWF while the
GFS simply shows a weak shortwave. As a result, the ECMWF brings a
stronger wave into the area Thursday night into Friday. The
discrepancies in the strength of this next system has led to
uncertainties in temperatures as well as precipitation chances. Due
to the low confidence in this part of the forecast, decided to stay with
the model consensus for the Thursday/Friday forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with ceilings
around 8-12kft. Precip should stay along the far eastern portions
of KS and east overnight. Light east winds will become southeast
during the day on Sat.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Omitt







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280912
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
412 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Early Saturday morning, a weak trough evident in surface pressure
analysis and implied in WV imagery was moving south across eastern
Nebraska. West-to-east isentropic upslope flow in the mid levels was
being enhanced in advance of this wave, and was resulting in
increasing radar returns across southeast NE and eastern KS. The
reflectivity patterns also indicate that the lift was being enhanced
by weak convective instability on the west edge of this precip and
CSI in far northeast KS and northwest MO. Dry air in the lowest 5000
feet AGL (evident in the 00Z TOP RAOB) was inhibiting much of this
precip from reaching the ground, but decreasing dewpoint depressions
and radar reflectivity noted lower in the vertical suggests that
pockets of sprinkles or even light snow showers may be reaching the
ground in eastern KS. The enhanced reflectivity is also training
over the same areas which will help continue to saturate down and
expect slightly increased coverage of light showers in the near
term. However, subsidence will take over as the weak trough passes,
and expect this light activity to come to an end shortly after
sunrise with decreasing cloud cover through the morning. Winds will
become southerly through the day and sunshine should bring temps
into the middle 50s east and middle 60s in central KS.

A fairly strong short wave trough, currently coming on shore in the
NW CONUS, will track across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley by early Sunday morning. This system will aid in
developing a strong LLJ overhead with persistent isentropic ascent
tonight. Additionally, a surface front will enter the forecast area
on Sunday morning. Currently expect to have weak elevated
instability above the LLJ moisture advection as mid level
temperatures cool near sunrise. This should result in scattered
shower development, and while a thunderstorm is not totally out of
the question have not included it in the forecast at this time given
rather weak instability. Overnight low temperatures will be a bit
warmer with persistent southerly winds and some warm advection.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave trough tracking across
the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, which
will help to push a weak cold front into north central Kansas Sunday
morning and exit the area Sunday afternoon. While the models are in
good agreement that the better moisture and lift will be focused
further north and east, there is still some uncertainty with how far
into the forecast area the light rain will extend. Have kept low-end
chance PoPs in far northeast Kansas as they should be clipped by
some showers, but have dry conditions by the afternoon hours.
Despite the shift to northwesterly winds behind the frontal passage,
there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air advection and
have high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

Dry and mild conditions are expected for early next week as surface
high pressure advances into the area Sunday night and progresses to
the southeast by Monday. As a result, southwesterly surface winds
are expected and will lead to decent warm air advection through the
early half of next week. Have continued to trend on the warmer side
of guidance with Monday highs in the low/mid 70s and Tuesday highs
in the mid/upper 70s. The 00z model runs have continued with the
slower progression of the next storm system. Models show a mid-level
trough advancing eastward over the Rockies on Wednesday which will
help to push a low-pressure system and associated cold front
eastward across the CWA Wednesday night rather than on Wednesday (as
the previous 00z model runs were showing). As a result, continued
southwesterly flow on Wednesday should keep high temperatures warm
in the mid/upper 70s. While most of the moisture and forcing will be
focused along and behind the cold front, some models are suggesting
that some lift will be present ahead of the boundary to promote some
light scattered precipitation Wednesday afternoon over east central
Kansas, so have slight chance PoPs in for much of the area with
chance PoPs over north central Kansas as thunderstorms may develop
as early as late afternoon. The GFS shows a stronger system than the
ECMWF with decent enough CAPE and bulk shear values to suggest the
potential for some severe weather, so will need to continue to
monitor this potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening.

Models become much more inconsistent Thursday into Friday as the GFS
is much more progressive with the passage of the cold front and
clearing precipitation out of the area Thursday morning.  While both
the GFS and ECMWF show a trough developing over the Rockies Thursday
night, the trough is much more pronounced from the ECMWF while the
GFS simply shows a weak shortwave. As a result, the ECMWF brings a
stronger wave into the area Thursday night into Friday. The
discrepancies in the strength of this next system has led to
uncertainties in temperatures as well as precipitation chances. Due
to the low confidence in this part of the forecast, decided to stay with
the model consensus for the Thursday/Friday forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with ceilings
around 8-12kft. Precip should stay along the far eastern portions
of KS and east overnight. Light east winds will become southeast
during the day on Sat.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Omitt






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280912
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
412 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Early Saturday morning, a weak trough evident in surface pressure
analysis and implied in WV imagery was moving south across eastern
Nebraska. West-to-east isentropic upslope flow in the mid levels was
being enhanced in advance of this wave, and was resulting in
increasing radar returns across southeast NE and eastern KS. The
reflectivity patterns also indicate that the lift was being enhanced
by weak convective instability on the west edge of this precip and
CSI in far northeast KS and northwest MO. Dry air in the lowest 5000
feet AGL (evident in the 00Z TOP RAOB) was inhibiting much of this
precip from reaching the ground, but decreasing dewpoint depressions
and radar reflectivity noted lower in the vertical suggests that
pockets of sprinkles or even light snow showers may be reaching the
ground in eastern KS. The enhanced reflectivity is also training
over the same areas which will help continue to saturate down and
expect slightly increased coverage of light showers in the near
term. However, subsidence will take over as the weak trough passes,
and expect this light activity to come to an end shortly after
sunrise with decreasing cloud cover through the morning. Winds will
become southerly through the day and sunshine should bring temps
into the middle 50s east and middle 60s in central KS.

A fairly strong short wave trough, currently coming on shore in the
NW CONUS, will track across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley by early Sunday morning. This system will aid in
developing a strong LLJ overhead with persistent isentropic ascent
tonight. Additionally, a surface front will enter the forecast area
on Sunday morning. Currently expect to have weak elevated
instability above the LLJ moisture advection as mid level
temperatures cool near sunrise. This should result in scattered
shower development, and while a thunderstorm is not totally out of
the question have not included it in the forecast at this time given
rather weak instability. Overnight low temperatures will be a bit
warmer with persistent southerly winds and some warm advection.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave trough tracking across
the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, which
will help to push a weak cold front into north central Kansas Sunday
morning and exit the area Sunday afternoon. While the models are in
good agreement that the better moisture and lift will be focused
further north and east, there is still some uncertainty with how far
into the forecast area the light rain will extend. Have kept low-end
chance PoPs in far northeast Kansas as they should be clipped by
some showers, but have dry conditions by the afternoon hours.
Despite the shift to northwesterly winds behind the frontal passage,
there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air advection and
have high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

Dry and mild conditions are expected for early next week as surface
high pressure advances into the area Sunday night and progresses to
the southeast by Monday. As a result, southwesterly surface winds
are expected and will lead to decent warm air advection through the
early half of next week. Have continued to trend on the warmer side
of guidance with Monday highs in the low/mid 70s and Tuesday highs
in the mid/upper 70s. The 00z model runs have continued with the
slower progression of the next storm system. Models show a mid-level
trough advancing eastward over the Rockies on Wednesday which will
help to push a low-pressure system and associated cold front
eastward across the CWA Wednesday night rather than on Wednesday (as
the previous 00z model runs were showing). As a result, continued
southwesterly flow on Wednesday should keep high temperatures warm
in the mid/upper 70s. While most of the moisture and forcing will be
focused along and behind the cold front, some models are suggesting
that some lift will be present ahead of the boundary to promote some
light scattered precipitation Wednesday afternoon over east central
Kansas, so have slight chance PoPs in for much of the area with
chance PoPs over north central Kansas as thunderstorms may develop
as early as late afternoon. The GFS shows a stronger system than the
ECMWF with decent enough CAPE and bulk shear values to suggest the
potential for some severe weather, so will need to continue to
monitor this potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening.

Models become much more inconsistent Thursday into Friday as the GFS
is much more progressive with the passage of the cold front and
clearing precipitation out of the area Thursday morning.  While both
the GFS and ECMWF show a trough developing over the Rockies Thursday
night, the trough is much more pronounced from the ECMWF while the
GFS simply shows a weak shortwave. As a result, the ECMWF brings a
stronger wave into the area Thursday night into Friday. The
discrepancies in the strength of this next system has led to
uncertainties in temperatures as well as precipitation chances. Due
to the low confidence in this part of the forecast, decided to stay with
the model consensus for the Thursday/Friday forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with ceilings
around 8-12kft. Precip should stay along the far eastern portions
of KS and east overnight. Light east winds will become southeast
during the day on Sat.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Omitt







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280912
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
412 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Early Saturday morning, a weak trough evident in surface pressure
analysis and implied in WV imagery was moving south across eastern
Nebraska. West-to-east isentropic upslope flow in the mid levels was
being enhanced in advance of this wave, and was resulting in
increasing radar returns across southeast NE and eastern KS. The
reflectivity patterns also indicate that the lift was being enhanced
by weak convective instability on the west edge of this precip and
CSI in far northeast KS and northwest MO. Dry air in the lowest 5000
feet AGL (evident in the 00Z TOP RAOB) was inhibiting much of this
precip from reaching the ground, but decreasing dewpoint depressions
and radar reflectivity noted lower in the vertical suggests that
pockets of sprinkles or even light snow showers may be reaching the
ground in eastern KS. The enhanced reflectivity is also training
over the same areas which will help continue to saturate down and
expect slightly increased coverage of light showers in the near
term. However, subsidence will take over as the weak trough passes,
and expect this light activity to come to an end shortly after
sunrise with decreasing cloud cover through the morning. Winds will
become southerly through the day and sunshine should bring temps
into the middle 50s east and middle 60s in central KS.

A fairly strong short wave trough, currently coming on shore in the
NW CONUS, will track across the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley by early Sunday morning. This system will aid in
developing a strong LLJ overhead with persistent isentropic ascent
tonight. Additionally, a surface front will enter the forecast area
on Sunday morning. Currently expect to have weak elevated
instability above the LLJ moisture advection as mid level
temperatures cool near sunrise. This should result in scattered
shower development, and while a thunderstorm is not totally out of
the question have not included it in the forecast at this time given
rather weak instability. Overnight low temperatures will be a bit
warmer with persistent southerly winds and some warm advection.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

Models continue to show a mid-level shortwave trough tracking across
the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region on Sunday, which
will help to push a weak cold front into north central Kansas Sunday
morning and exit the area Sunday afternoon. While the models are in
good agreement that the better moisture and lift will be focused
further north and east, there is still some uncertainty with how far
into the forecast area the light rain will extend. Have kept low-end
chance PoPs in far northeast Kansas as they should be clipped by
some showers, but have dry conditions by the afternoon hours.
Despite the shift to northwesterly winds behind the frontal passage,
there doesn`t look to be much in the way of cold air advection and
have high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

Dry and mild conditions are expected for early next week as surface
high pressure advances into the area Sunday night and progresses to
the southeast by Monday. As a result, southwesterly surface winds
are expected and will lead to decent warm air advection through the
early half of next week. Have continued to trend on the warmer side
of guidance with Monday highs in the low/mid 70s and Tuesday highs
in the mid/upper 70s. The 00z model runs have continued with the
slower progression of the next storm system. Models show a mid-level
trough advancing eastward over the Rockies on Wednesday which will
help to push a low-pressure system and associated cold front
eastward across the CWA Wednesday night rather than on Wednesday (as
the previous 00z model runs were showing). As a result, continued
southwesterly flow on Wednesday should keep high temperatures warm
in the mid/upper 70s. While most of the moisture and forcing will be
focused along and behind the cold front, some models are suggesting
that some lift will be present ahead of the boundary to promote some
light scattered precipitation Wednesday afternoon over east central
Kansas, so have slight chance PoPs in for much of the area with
chance PoPs over north central Kansas as thunderstorms may develop
as early as late afternoon. The GFS shows a stronger system than the
ECMWF with decent enough CAPE and bulk shear values to suggest the
potential for some severe weather, so will need to continue to
monitor this potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening.

Models become much more inconsistent Thursday into Friday as the GFS
is much more progressive with the passage of the cold front and
clearing precipitation out of the area Thursday morning.  While both
the GFS and ECMWF show a trough developing over the Rockies Thursday
night, the trough is much more pronounced from the ECMWF while the
GFS simply shows a weak shortwave. As a result, the ECMWF brings a
stronger wave into the area Thursday night into Friday. The
discrepancies in the strength of this next system has led to
uncertainties in temperatures as well as precipitation chances. Due
to the low confidence in this part of the forecast, decided to stay with
the model consensus for the Thursday/Friday forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with ceilings
around 8-12kft. Precip should stay along the far eastern portions
of KS and east overnight. Light east winds will become southeast
during the day on Sat.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Omitt






000
FXUS63 KICT 280851
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280851
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H WARM MOIST ADVECTION HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM
ADVECTION HAS ALSO LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID
LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS) SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.
 THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE
CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 280824
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO
LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING
TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS)
SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 280824
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
324 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

850-700H HAS LED TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS WARM ADVECTION HAS ALSO
LED TO NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS SPRINKLE CHANCE WILL TRANSLATE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING
TREND...AS WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL SATURATION (MID CLOUDS)
SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.  SO EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
TODAY...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MAX TEMPS
ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  COULD SEE A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPS OVER SE KS WHERE CLOUDS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER BUT STILL
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY ON SUNDAY AS WELL...AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY UP DUE TO CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON SUN...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUN.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS KS ON SUNDAY. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THIS FASTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN. SO WILL
GO WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  THIS
MAY LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL KS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON  (SEE BELOW) AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.

NOT ALOT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT DROPS
SOUTH...WITH ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT STAYING JUST
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MON-TUE: WEAK NW TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR MON AND
TUE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH
DAYS.  SO EXPECT A PLEASANT DAY ON MON AND PROBABLY TUE...AS A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS TX...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING MOST OF
THIS MOISTURE AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH IT FURTHER
SOUTH. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR TUE
AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING ACROSS SRN KS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
KEEPING A LOW POP FOR SRN KS FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PLAY OUT.  BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE SW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF
THE ROCKIES.  TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE AREA DIFFERS...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH ON WED...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BUT
STRONGER...BRINGING IT THROUGH ON THU. PLAN ON KEEPING POPS IN FOR
BOTH DAYS...UNTIL TIMING GETS WORKED OUT.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FOR THIS TIME FRAME.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED...THINK SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WILL COME IN ON AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR
SPREADS INTO THE AREA.  VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      74  47  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          70  47  70  40 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        70  46  70  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  47  71  41 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         74  48  69  36 /   0  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  48  70  37 /   0  10   0   0
SALINA          69  47  69  36 /   0  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       71  47  69  37 /   0  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     66  43  68  40 /  10   0  10  10
CHANUTE         62  42  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
IOLA            60  41  68  39 /  10   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  68  39 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 280812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATER TODAY. WHILE WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VEERING WITH TIME, SLIGHTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BE ACHIEVED BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH A
BETTER GRADIENT AND LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH
RESPECT TO TODAY`S HIGHS, SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS MOS
INDICATING TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE MID 80S IN EXTREME SW KS. WE
WILL HEDGE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND USE THE 4 KM NAM SPATIALLY. 15
DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE IS NOT UNREASONABLE BETWEEN ELKHART AND AND
HAYS WITH THIS PATTERN AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER DEW
POINTS CWA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY IN PRESUMED RADIATION FOG, THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT IN A SIMILAR SOLUTION FRONT THE NMM AND ARW, BUT BEARS
WATCHING IN HE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. MODELS GENERATE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, WHICH COULD BOTTOM OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT
EARLY SUNDAY IT IS NOT IMPLAUSIBLE FOR SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER IT IS FAR MORE LIKELY MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE
DEFORMATION AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO BETTER MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  47  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  81  45  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  84  48  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  48  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  47  73  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATER TODAY. WHILE WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VEERING WITH TIME, SLIGHTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BE ACHIEVED BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH A
BETTER GRADIENT AND LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH
RESPECT TO TODAY`S HIGHS, SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS MOS
INDICATING TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE MID 80S IN EXTREME SW KS. WE
WILL HEDGE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND USE THE 4 KM NAM SPATIALLY. 15
DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE IS NOT UNREASONABLE BETWEEN ELKHART AND AND
HAYS WITH THIS PATTERN AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER DEW
POINTS CWA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY IN PRESUMED RADIATION FOG, THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT IN A SIMILAR SOLUTION FRONT THE NMM AND ARW, BUT BEARS
WATCHING IN HE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. MODELS GENERATE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, WHICH COULD BOTTOM OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT
EARLY SUNDAY IT IS NOT IMPLAUSIBLE FOR SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER IT IS FAR MORE LIKELY MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE
DEFORMATION AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO BETTER MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  47  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  81  45  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  84  48  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  48  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  47  73  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATER TODAY. WHILE WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VEERING WITH TIME, SLIGHTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BE ACHIEVED BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH A
BETTER GRADIENT AND LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH
RESPECT TO TODAY`S HIGHS, SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS MOS
INDICATING TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE MID 80S IN EXTREME SW KS. WE
WILL HEDGE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND USE THE 4 KM NAM SPATIALLY. 15
DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE IS NOT UNREASONABLE BETWEEN ELKHART AND AND
HAYS WITH THIS PATTERN AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER DEW
POINTS CWA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY IN PRESUMED RADIATION FOG, THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT IN A SIMILAR SOLUTION FRONT THE NMM AND ARW, BUT BEARS
WATCHING IN HE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. MODELS GENERATE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, WHICH COULD BOTTOM OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT
EARLY SUNDAY IT IS NOT IMPLAUSIBLE FOR SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER IT IS FAR MORE LIKELY MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE
DEFORMATION AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO BETTER MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  47  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  81  45  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  84  48  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  48  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  47  73  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
ALLOW RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY LATER TODAY. WHILE WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VEERING WITH TIME, SLIGHTLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD BE ACHIEVED BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH A
BETTER GRADIENT AND LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH
RESPECT TO TODAY`S HIGHS, SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS MOS
INDICATING TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE MID 80S IN EXTREME SW KS. WE
WILL HEDGE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND USE THE 4 KM NAM SPATIALLY. 15
DEGREES OF DIFFERENCE IS NOT UNREASONABLE BETWEEN ELKHART AND AND
HAYS WITH THIS PATTERN AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER DEW
POINTS CWA-WIDE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH HE NAM MODEL DEVELOPS
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY IN PRESUMED RADIATION FOG, THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT IN A SIMILAR SOLUTION FRONT THE NMM AND ARW, BUT BEARS
WATCHING IN HE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. MODELS GENERATE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, WHICH COULD BOTTOM OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT
EARLY SUNDAY IT IS NOT IMPLAUSIBLE FOR SPRINKLES OR RAIN SHOWERS IN
CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER IT IS FAR MORE LIKELY MUCH FARTHER NORTH WHERE
DEFORMATION AND COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTES TO BETTER MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  47  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  81  45  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  84  48  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  48  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  78  47  73  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED 585 DM RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GLD CWA WAS LOCATED ON EASTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW AS WELL. AT THE SFC... NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED STATIONARY
FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
T/TD VALUES WERE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS IT.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND RESULTING
IMPACTS AFTER TROUGH PASSES.

PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPES INDICATE
100-300 J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...BUT SOUNDINGS AND
SPREAD OF MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY INSPIRING A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN ARE RATHER SLIM. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE
AREA LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP THREAT
AND STRONG INVERSION WILL LIMIT ANY KIND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS IN THE COOLER AIRMASS. SECOND...WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DISAGREE IF
LIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE ANY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CONCERNING THAT 300-500 J/KG MUCAPE POSSIBLE SHOULD LAYERS AROUND
H7 BECOME SATURATED. WITH SUCH A CONDITIONAL THREAT...DO NOT FEEL
READY TO INCREASE POPS ALL THAT MUCH AND THINK OVERALL CHANCES
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 REASONABLE. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE CWA AS SFC TROUGH
TRANSLATES ACROSS AREA.

ASIDE FROM THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...AM CONCERNED ABOUT PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH AS IT PASSES AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO 18Z. DO NOT THINK HUMIDITIES
WILL BE ALL THAT LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH VERY DRY FUELS IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY TO THE
WEST OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTH WEST AND GUST
TO AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT PERSISTENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL IMPROVE AT THIS TIME...THIS CHANGE
IN WINDS COULD MAKE ANY ONGOING FIRES DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
TONIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  48  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  47  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  47  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
P28  75  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

EARLY IN THIS PERIOD (SUNDAY), A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE (IN
TERMS OF WIND SHIFT/STRENGTH). THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE
WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN, SO MUCH OF THE FLOW BEHIND THIS STORM
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORIES. DESPITE THE FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL HIT 70+ ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE GRIDS,
AS THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH RAPID PRESSURE RISES. 20 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WIND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

POLAR FLOW RIDGING WILL THEN APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY
AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A RECIRCULATION OF THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVENT A MAJOR WARM-UP MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST. LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 75-77F RANGE SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH. WE
WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, THOUGH, FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.

THE MID TO LATE WEEK WEATHER LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH FORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A BROAD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, FAVORING A DEEP LEE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DETAILS ARE OBVIOUSLY QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT, BUT THE SIGNALS
ARE INCREASING THAT ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORM EPISODES SHOULD RESULT
IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WHICH COULD INCLUDE AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST-WEST CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  48  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  47  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  47  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
P28  75  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280646
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280646
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280646
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280646
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER RIDGING ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
DETERMINE HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT RIGHT NOW BLEND MAKES WEDNESDAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
FRONT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY THOUGH SATURDAY. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A PROGRESSIVE
ZONAL FLOW...EACH BRINGING LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280606
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
106 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  48  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  47  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  47  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
P28  75  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280606
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
106 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  48  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  47  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  47  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
P28  75  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280606
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
106 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  48  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  47  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  47  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
P28  75  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280606
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
106 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ACCOUNT FOR
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY ONLY
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, SUPPORTED BY RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FIELDS AND GFS LOCAL MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  48  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  80  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  82  47  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  82  47  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  75  47  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
P28  75  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280453
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280453
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1053 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A MEANDERING
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND FIELD AT BOTH SITES UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING. AT THAT
TIME...THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER FROM A SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KTOP 280445 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with ceilings
around 8-12kft. Precip should stay along the far eastern portions
of KS and east overnight. Light east winds will become southeast
during the day on Sat.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Omitt







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280445 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1145 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with ceilings
around 8-12kft. Precip should stay along the far eastern portions
of KS and east overnight. Light east winds will become southeast
during the day on Sat.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Omitt






000
FXUS63 KICT 280437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         38  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      41  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          36  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  10  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  10  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  10  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 280437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         38  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      41  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          36  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  10  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  10  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  10  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 280437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         38  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      41  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          36  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  10  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  10  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  10  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 280437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         38  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      41  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          36  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  10  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  10  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  10  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 280437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   39  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         38  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      41  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          36  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  10  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  10  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  10  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 272333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          35  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  20  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  20  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  20  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 272333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          35  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  20  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  20  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  20  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 272333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          35  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  20  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  20  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  20  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 272333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOAT OVERHEAD TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  72  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      37  74  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
NEWTON          37  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
ELDORADO        38  70  46  70 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  71  47  71 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         37  74  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      40  75  47  70 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          35  69  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       36  71  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     36  66  44  68 /  20  10   0  20
CHANUTE         36  62  43  68 /  20  10   0  20
IOLA            35  60  42  68 /  20  10   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    36  64  43  68 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 272328 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast at the
sites. Fast moving system will bring clouds AOA 3kft tonight with
stronger low level lift expected to occur early this evening with
some light rain or snow flurries but coverage and intensity is
very low so will not mention in the actual TAF this evening. Light
and variable winds will become southeast after sunset and persist Sat.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Omitt







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272328 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast at the
sites. Fast moving system will bring clouds AOA 3kft tonight with
stronger low level lift expected to occur early this evening with
some light rain or snow flurries but coverage and intensity is
very low so will not mention in the actual TAF this evening. Light
and variable winds will become southeast after sunset and persist Sat.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Omitt






000
FXUS63 KTOP 272328 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast at the
sites. Fast moving system will bring clouds AOA 3kft tonight with
stronger low level lift expected to occur early this evening with
some light rain or snow flurries but coverage and intensity is
very low so will not mention in the actual TAF this evening. Light
and variable winds will become southeast after sunset and persist Sat.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Omitt






000
FXUS63 KDDC 272320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ONLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CLOUDS AOA 10KFT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  80  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  82  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  82  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  75  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD



000
FXUS63 KDDC 272320
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
620 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ONLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CLOUDS AOA 10KFT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  80  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  82  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  82  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  75  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFTING/VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT BUT
FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFTING/VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT BUT
FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFTING/VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT BUT
FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 272308
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
508 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH/MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SHIFTING/VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT BUT
FROM A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 272050
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 272050
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KTOP 272029
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272029
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272029
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272029
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272029
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 272029
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 272029
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KTOP 272029
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Recent water vapor imagery showing upper ridge over the western
states beginning to slide east as a shortwave approaches the
Pacific Northwest. Another smaller scale wave was diving south
along the quick upper flow into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Modest surface ridge was over eastern Kansas with light winds,
while cloud cover was steadily increasing, both form high cloud
topping the ridge and mid-level isentropic upglide in central
Nebraska. Very light precipitation has resulted in this area
despite ceilings of several thousand feet. Local temps were in the
lower to middle 40s early this afternoon, with values topping the
60 degree mark in western portions of the state.

Models are quite similar with isentropic lift deepening with time a
a moderate low level jet develops tonight. Low level moisture remains
a challenge, but could easily see very light precip continue south
and east with time this evening. The upper wave to the north brings
more considerable forcing and as it continues south, bring slightly
better precip chances to far eastern, mainly northeastern locations.
The exit of this wave and drier air working in from the upper ridge
should end any precip by dawn. With models sounding showing
near-surface temps a few to several degrees above 0C and cloud temps
able to reach ice crystal formation levels, have broad-brushed both
rain and snow as precip types.

East to southeast winds increase overnight into Saturday as surface
high pressure dives south behind behind the northern wave into the
middle Mississippi Valley while surface pressures quickly fall in
the High Plains as the Pacific Northwest wave crosses the Northern
Rockies. This will result in a rather strong low level thermal
gradient over the area with rather clear skies, with highs ranging
from the mid 50s northeast to near 70 in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Models continue to show a boundary moving through the forecast
area mainly during the morning hours Sunday. The solutions have
converged on a common timing of the frontal passage which has it
exiting east central KS around noon Sunday. Because of this have
removed the chances for precip during the afternoon. Preceding
the front, there is a fair amount of warm air advection with a
decent elevated mixed layer capping the boundary. Additionally the
strongest forcing from a shortwave passing by looks to affect
areas across IA more so than into northeast KS. So models have the
better saturation and vertical motion clipping northeast KS
beginning early Sunday morning. So the better chances for precip
should be across far northeast KS. Since the better forcing looks
to pass northeast, have kept chances around 30 percent. Have high
on Sunday in the mid and upper 60s expecting some cold air
advection with the northerly winds by the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday continue to look dry with temps warming into
the 70s. The synoptic pattern looks to split with southern stream
energy moving across TX and energy in the northern stream moving
from the northern Rockies into the adjoining plains.

Another front is progged to move through the central plains
Wednesday night. This is about 8 to 12 hours slower then previous
solutions had. Because the GFS/ECMWF/GEM are similar in this
slower progression, have altered the POP forecast to reflect
better chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Based on the GFS solution, there may be enough instability and
deep layer shear for any thunderstorms to pose a severe weather
risk. We`ll have to continue monitoring trends as it gets closer.
Raised the forecast for high temps on Wednesday into the mid 70s
due to the slower timing of the front as well.

Uncertainty increases for Thursday and Friday as the GFS and ECMWF
differ on when a modified Canadian ridge of high pressure moves
through the plains. The GFS drys things out with cooler temps
moving in on Thursday while the ECMWF brings another surface wave
across the central plains and possibly another round of precip
Thursday night and Friday morning. The WPC was not that excited
about the consistency of the recent ECMWF runs which only adds to
the uncertainty in the forecast. At this point have leaned a
little towards the ECMWF due to its better verification and kept
mild temps and a low chance for precip into Friday, but confidence
in this forecast is low as there are only the two solutions to
investigate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65








000
FXUS63 KGLD 272016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 272003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ZCZC TOPWRKJSL 052051
TTAA00 KTOP DDHHMM

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 272003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ZCZC TOPWRKJSL 052051
TTAA00 KTOP DDHHMM

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KICT 271958
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS VARYING PRIMARILY FROM 1,000 TO 1,500FT WILL COVER ALL AREAS
TIL ~15Z WHEN BREAKAGE OF THESE DECKS COMMENCES. BY 18Z ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN VFR CIG STATUS WITH SCT-BKN 3,500FT DECKS PREVALENT.
N/NE WINDS 13-17KTS/15-20MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS MORNING
PROGRESSES WITH MOST AREAS LGT AND VARIABLE ~18Z. SW WINDS <13KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KRSL & KHUT MID-LATE AFTN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  38  72  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  37  74  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          51  37  70  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        51  38  70  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  38  71  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         55  37  74  46 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      55  40  75  47 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          51  35  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       51  36  71  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     51  36  66  44 /  10  20  10   0
CHANUTE         49  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            48  35  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  64  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 271958
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY HAVE A SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS
DIVING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
CENTRAL TX WITH SOME WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/EASTERN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE QUICKLY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL SLIDE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO
MAINLY EASTERN KS INTO THE OZARKS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH LEE TROUGHING CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS SAT WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUN AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO LOWER
HIGH TEMPS FOR SUN TO THE 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THESE
READINGS ARE STILL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WHICH ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR MON AS WE GET BACK INTO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS TX
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT
WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING SOUTH. THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR WED WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING
THROUGH A COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AREAL EXTENT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...THE
GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COLD AIR WED NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF NOT PUSHING COLD AIR SOUTH UNTIL THU NIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE IN
FOR COME COOLER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS VARYING PRIMARILY FROM 1,000 TO 1,500FT WILL COVER ALL AREAS
TIL ~15Z WHEN BREAKAGE OF THESE DECKS COMMENCES. BY 18Z ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN VFR CIG STATUS WITH SCT-BKN 3,500FT DECKS PREVALENT.
N/NE WINDS 13-17KTS/15-20MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS MORNING
PROGRESSES WITH MOST AREAS LGT AND VARIABLE ~18Z. SW WINDS <13KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KRSL & KHUT MID-LATE AFTN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
SAT WITH DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR SUN.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT INTO SAT
WHICH WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST
BY SAT AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SAT AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE WITH AFTERNOON RH`S IN THE 30-45% RANGE WITH
THE LOWER VALUES OVER CENTRAL KS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP
AROUND TO THE NORTH BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON AND BE QUITE GUSTY. WE
ARE LOOKING FOR SPEEDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
30...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  38  72  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  37  74  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          51  37  70  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        51  38  70  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  38  71  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         55  37  74  46 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      55  40  75  47 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          51  35  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       51  36  71  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     51  36  66  44 /  10  20  10   0
CHANUTE         49  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            48  35  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  64  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  80  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  82  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  82  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  75  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  80  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  82  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  82  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  75  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  80  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  82  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  82  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  75  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN BELOW
50 PERCENT WITH MOST PLACES POSSIBLY REMAINING DRY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  78  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  80  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  82  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  82  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  75  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
P28  40  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BREAKING DOWN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT
AND A LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A LEE
SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
CREATING SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 30S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS WILL RAISE H85 TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE TEENS(C)
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 20C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE 70S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KTOP 271732
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1232 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271732
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1232 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KTOP 271732
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1232 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271732
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1232 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR conditions anticipated. Moderate north winds should subside
over the next few hours with cloud bases building down quickly but
should remain above limiting levels. Some potential for light
precip continues in the mainly 06Z-10Z period, but not worthy or
predictable for TAF mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KGLD 271731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 271731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 271731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1131 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...RRH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING 5 TO 15KT AS THE SURFACE HIGH TURNS MORE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271423
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
923 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271423
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
923 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271423
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
923 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271423
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
923 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ENHANCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  42  78  48 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  72  42  80  47 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  42  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  40  75  47 /  30   0   0  10
P28  60  40  75  48 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KTOP 271139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Broken MVFR stratus should move southwest of TOP/FOE by 12Z, and
at MHK by 13Z. Then expect a mainly VFR TAF, but there is some
small potential for periods of broken cigs between 2000 and 3500
feet through 17Z. Winds turn out of the south after 00Z, and have
a small chance for light rain mainly between 06Z and 10Z but have
not included in TAFs at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 271139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Broken MVFR stratus should move southwest of TOP/FOE by 12Z, and
at MHK by 13Z. Then expect a mainly VFR TAF, but there is some
small potential for periods of broken cigs between 2000 and 3500
feet through 17Z. Winds turn out of the south after 00Z, and have
a small chance for light rain mainly between 06Z and 10Z but have
not included in TAFs at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 271139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Broken MVFR stratus should move southwest of TOP/FOE by 12Z, and
at MHK by 13Z. Then expect a mainly VFR TAF, but there is some
small potential for periods of broken cigs between 2000 and 3500
feet through 17Z. Winds turn out of the south after 00Z, and have
a small chance for light rain mainly between 06Z and 10Z but have
not included in TAFs at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 271139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Broken MVFR stratus should move southwest of TOP/FOE by 12Z, and
at MHK by 13Z. Then expect a mainly VFR TAF, but there is some
small potential for periods of broken cigs between 2000 and 3500
feet through 17Z. Winds turn out of the south after 00Z, and have
a small chance for light rain mainly between 06Z and 10Z but have
not included in TAFs at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KTOP 271139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Broken MVFR stratus should move southwest of TOP/FOE by 12Z, and
at MHK by 13Z. Then expect a mainly VFR TAF, but there is some
small potential for periods of broken cigs between 2000 and 3500
feet through 17Z. Winds turn out of the south after 00Z, and have
a small chance for light rain mainly between 06Z and 10Z but have
not included in TAFs at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271139
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Broken MVFR stratus should move southwest of TOP/FOE by 12Z, and
at MHK by 13Z. Then expect a mainly VFR TAF, but there is some
small potential for periods of broken cigs between 2000 and 3500
feet through 17Z. Winds turn out of the south after 00Z, and have
a small chance for light rain mainly between 06Z and 10Z but have
not included in TAFs at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KGLD 271118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT 3-4
HOURS. BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING OVER THE TAF SITE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS OT BE MOVING SOUTH OF KMCK BUT AFRAID RADAR
MAY BE OVERSHOOTING MAJORITY OF PRECIP BAND. RECENTLY...TAF
DROPPED TO LIFR CEILING. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED AS LOW AS 1 3/4
MILE WITH LIGHT SNOW. TRIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. AT KGLD...PRECIP REMAINS NORTH/EAST WITH NO CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET. NO CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED AT BOTH SITES ONCE SNOW BAND EXITS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 271118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT 3-4
HOURS. BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING OVER THE TAF SITE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS OT BE MOVING SOUTH OF KMCK BUT AFRAID RADAR
MAY BE OVERSHOOTING MAJORITY OF PRECIP BAND. RECENTLY...TAF
DROPPED TO LIFR CEILING. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED AS LOW AS 1 3/4
MILE WITH LIGHT SNOW. TRIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. AT KGLD...PRECIP REMAINS NORTH/EAST WITH NO CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET. NO CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED AT BOTH SITES ONCE SNOW BAND EXITS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 271118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT 3-4
HOURS. BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING OVER THE TAF SITE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS OT BE MOVING SOUTH OF KMCK BUT AFRAID RADAR
MAY BE OVERSHOOTING MAJORITY OF PRECIP BAND. RECENTLY...TAF
DROPPED TO LIFR CEILING. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED AS LOW AS 1 3/4
MILE WITH LIGHT SNOW. TRIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. AT KGLD...PRECIP REMAINS NORTH/EAST WITH NO CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET. NO CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED AT BOTH SITES ONCE SNOW BAND EXITS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 271118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT 3-4
HOURS. BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING OVER THE TAF SITE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS OT BE MOVING SOUTH OF KMCK BUT AFRAID RADAR
MAY BE OVERSHOOTING MAJORITY OF PRECIP BAND. RECENTLY...TAF
DROPPED TO LIFR CEILING. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED AS LOW AS 1 3/4
MILE WITH LIGHT SNOW. TRIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. AT KGLD...PRECIP REMAINS NORTH/EAST WITH NO CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET. NO CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED AT BOTH SITES ONCE SNOW BAND EXITS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 271118
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KMCK OVER THE NEXT 3-4
HOURS. BAND OF SNOW IS MOVING OVER THE TAF SITE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION APPEARS OT BE MOVING SOUTH OF KMCK BUT AFRAID RADAR
MAY BE OVERSHOOTING MAJORITY OF PRECIP BAND. RECENTLY...TAF
DROPPED TO LIFR CEILING. VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED AS LOW AS 1 3/4
MILE WITH LIGHT SNOW. TRIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. AT KGLD...PRECIP REMAINS NORTH/EAST WITH NO CIG/VIS
RESTRICTIONS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES IN THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST.
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET. NO CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED AT BOTH SITES ONCE SNOW BAND EXITS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH
FIRE WEATHER...RRH



000
FXUS63 KICT 271113
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
LOTS OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WITH THE NE-E
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THINK THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS TONIGHT. THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DROPPING EARLY BUT LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING BY SAT MORNING.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS
WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. GFS IS DRIER
IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A SPRINKLE CHANCE OR
POSSIBLY JUST VIRGA. BUT NAM/WRF LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN CHANCE EARLY SAT MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. SO WILL ADD A LOW POP TO SE KS.

SAT-SUN: EXPECT A COUPLE OF NICE SEASONAL TEMP DAYS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SRN
KS...CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.

AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE KS. MID LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FLINT HILL FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE.

NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...AS THIS ZONAL FLOW LEADS
TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS AS WELL.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS VARYING PRIMARILY FROM 1,000 TO 1,500FT WILL COVER ALL AREAS
TIL ~15Z WHEN BREAKAGE OF THESE DECKS COMMENCES. BY 18Z ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN VFR CIG STATUS WITH SCT-BKN 3,500FT DECKS PREVALENT.
N/NE WINDS 13-17KTS/15-20MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS MORNING
PROGRESSES WITH MOST AREAS LGT AND VARIABLE ~18Z. SW WINDS <13KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KRSL & KHUT MID-LATE AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  39  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  38  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        52  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  39  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         58  38  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  39  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          54  37  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  37  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  37  66  43 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         50  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            49  36  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  65  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 271113
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
LOTS OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WITH THE NE-E
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THINK THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS TONIGHT. THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DROPPING EARLY BUT LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING BY SAT MORNING.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS
WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. GFS IS DRIER
IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A SPRINKLE CHANCE OR
POSSIBLY JUST VIRGA. BUT NAM/WRF LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN CHANCE EARLY SAT MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. SO WILL ADD A LOW POP TO SE KS.

SAT-SUN: EXPECT A COUPLE OF NICE SEASONAL TEMP DAYS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SRN
KS...CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.

AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE KS. MID LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FLINT HILL FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE.

NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...AS THIS ZONAL FLOW LEADS
TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS AS WELL.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CIGS VARYING PRIMARILY FROM 1,000 TO 1,500FT WILL COVER ALL AREAS
TIL ~15Z WHEN BREAKAGE OF THESE DECKS COMMENCES. BY 18Z ALL AREAS
SHOULD BE IN VFR CIG STATUS WITH SCT-BKN 3,500FT DECKS PREVALENT.
N/NE WINDS 13-17KTS/15-20MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS MORNING
PROGRESSES WITH MOST AREAS LGT AND VARIABLE ~18Z. SW WINDS <13KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KRSL & KHUT MID-LATE AFTN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  39  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  38  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        52  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  39  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         58  38  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  39  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          54  37  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  37  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  37  66  43 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         50  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            49  36  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  65  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
554 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
554 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
554 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
554 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
554 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271054
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
554 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY.
CIRRUS CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS
OF MODELS SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
40S AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VERY LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THOUGH, SO IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. EARLY MORNING CEILING AT DDC AND GCK,
HOWEVER, WILL BE AROUND 700 TO 900 FEET (IFR). THIS CEILING WILL
SCATTER AROUND AROUND 1500-1600 UTC WITH VFR PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND
12 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS DDC, GCK, AND HYS
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270900
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY.
TODAY...WARM/DRY AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY ONLY
REACH 20 PERCENT AND MORE LIKELY 25 PERCENT. THEREFORE...A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS NOT NEEDED. WARMER/DRIER AIR EXPECTED
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE DAY SO ONCE AGAIN...A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A CLIPPER/COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6
AM MDT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 10-12 MBS. DRY AIR ADVECTION ALSO
ANTICIPATED SO THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONCERN IS THAT WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
REACHED. WINDS ALOFT DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS EAST SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MAY NOT SUPPORT CRITICAL WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL THREAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IN LATER
FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER
FIRE WEATHER...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 270850
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs with briefly ifr conditions until 08z will linger
until 12z before scattering to vfr at 3500 feet. VFR conditions
are then expected thru the remainder of the forecast. Gusty north
to northeast winds of 10 to 20 kts will decrease to under 10 kts
by 08z and continue through the end of the forecast... although
winds may become light and variable aft 00z/28.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 270850
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

Compact vorticity max that helped bring rain and light snow showers
overnight has moved southeast of the area and precipitation has
temporarily come to an end. Farther west, an area of weak isentropic
ascent coincident with deeper moisture was fueling an area of
showers from southwest NE into central KS. This lift supporting this
area of light precip is likely to remain just west of the forecast
area, although a few sprinkles may fall through the drier low level
air in north central KS today. High temperatures today will depend
heavily upon cloud cover. It currently appears that there could be a
few breaks in eastern KS, but at least high cloud cover will likely
keep temperatures low today...and have dropped highs from the
previous forecast into the mid 40s to around 50. The clouds will
also help moderate temperatures overnight with lows expected to hold
in the lower 30s. Another vort max will bring a chance for rain
showers with a small chance for snow this evening and overnight. The
best chance will be in far eastern KS, but scattered showers are
possible as far west as Highway 81 overnight as well. Any precip
that does develop will be light.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

The shortwave that skims the area Friday night should be east of the
area by Saturday morning, resulting in dry conditions through
Saturday night before the next system approaches on Sunday. Models
show a mid-level trough tracking eastward over the northern Rockies
on Saturday and deepening as it advances into the Northern and
Central Plains Saturday night into Sunday. This advancing trough
will help to push a cold front through the area on Sunday, however
confidence remains low with regards to the potential for
precipitation from this passing system. The better forcing and lift
should remain north and east of the CWA, but some models still
suggest that some light rain showers could skim across far northern
and northeastern Kansas on Sunday, with the ECMWF being the most
aggressive solution. As a result, have kept slight to low-end chance
PoPs in the forecast. As for weekend temperatures, easterly flow on
Saturday should keep temperatures cooler across eastern Kansas with
highs in the 50s but expect warmer conditions toward central Kansas
where highs may reach into the 60s. Despite the frontal passage on
Sunday, there doesn`t look to be much cold air surging in behind the
boundary and expect highs to reach into the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure settles into the region by Monday, resulting
in dry conditions through Tuesday night. The surface high will
quickly shift southeast of the area on Monday, shifting winds to the
southwest and providing decent warm air advection into the region
for early next week. Trended a few degrees warmer with high
temperatures in the low/mid 70s Monday and mid/upper 70s Tuesday.
The next mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday and track eastward into the Northern Plains on Wednesday.
This trough will push low pressure into the area and bring another
frontal through the CWA on Wednesday. Models actually are in
surprisingly decent agreement with highlighting the potential for a
line of showers and thunderstorms to develop along and behind this
boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night with decent QPF amounts
possible.  CIN looks to erode away in the morning with only weak
inhibition in place for the afternoon and evening hours. Models show
some modest CAPE and bulk shear in place with this system, so we
will need to keep an eye on how this system evolves in the models.
Surface high pressure will move in behind this system, resulting in
dry conditions for Thursday. There doesn`t appear to be much cold
air behind the frontal passage so temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday look to stay in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs with briefly ifr conditions until 08z will linger
until 12z before scattering to vfr at 3500 feet. VFR conditions
are then expected thru the remainder of the forecast. Gusty north
to northeast winds of 10 to 20 kts will decrease to under 10 kts
by 08z and continue through the end of the forecast... although
winds may become light and variable aft 00z/28.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KDDC 270847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015


CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPEPR MIDWEST/MO VALLEY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AT
LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015


CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPEPR MIDWEST/MO VALLEY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AT
LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015


CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPEPR MIDWEST/MO VALLEY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AT
LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015


CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPEPR MIDWEST/MO VALLEY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AT
LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015


CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPEPR MIDWEST/MO VALLEY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AT
LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 270847
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015


CHALLENGING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO (MOSTLY
ELEVATED) RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEING DRIVEN SOUTH ALONG A
850-700 MB BAROCLINIC/WARM FRONTOGENETIC ZONE FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS AREA ALSO IS BEING INFLUENCED
BY WEAK UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS AND 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE
NAM SUGGESTED A DRY FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR OUR AREA, WITH NO
PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED DESPITE THE INCREASE IN 2D
FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER THE HRRR IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF 0.01" TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AND INCH. IN MOST CASES AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BRIEF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER BRIEF MOMENTS
OF INTENSIFIED REFLECTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST MORE IMPRESSIVE
HYDROMETEORS MAKING IT TO LOWER LEVELS. FALLING TEMPERATURES UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF 850 MB COLD ADVECTION IN CENTRAL KS WILL FORCE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER THROUGH THE
I-70 CORRIDOR.

WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING EAST INTO THE UPEPR MIDWEST/MO VALLEY. CIRRUS
CLOUDS ALONG THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AT
LEAST A SMALL IMPACT ON INSOLATION. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUPPORTS 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AFTERNOON WITH MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED 30`S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  74  44  83  48 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  82  48 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  60  39  75  47 /  20   0   0  10
P28  60  40  77  48 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270843
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EAST AT 5-10 MPH. LATEST WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE REGION. THE FIRST WAS LOCATED
FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN COLORADO TO TRIBUNE AND GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
THE SECOND BAND IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EAST OF A ST
FRANCIS TO RUSSELL SPRINGS KANSAS LINE. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION IS
LIGHT WITH RADAR ESTIMATES LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. MOST LIKELY...
ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LESS AS DRIER AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASE IS
LEADING TO EVAPORATION. AT THE SURFACE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALOFT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. THESE MINOR PERTURBATIONS ARE RESULTING IN THE SHOWERS. A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES.

FOR TODAY...SHOWERS PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PASS AND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. ONCE AGAIN...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR IN THE SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. IF A PRECIP
CHANGE TO SNOW OCCURS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS
GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER EAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY TODAY AS SOUTHWEST/DOWNSLOPE
FLOW DOMINATES. MAIN REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST THIS WARMER
AIR REACHES. CURRENTLY...COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND A LATE ARRIVAL FOR
WARMER WESTERN AIR.

TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S REMAIN THE ANTICIPATED OUTCOME. SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT FEEL THIS GUIDANCE
IS NOT GRASPING RECENT TRENDS AND FULL EXTENT OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A VIGOROUS CLIPPER SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
ANTICIPATE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE DOES NOT SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE A
WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS BELOW ANY MENTION AND
INCLUDED SPRINKLES WORDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER



000
FXUS63 KICT 270821
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
LOTS OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WITH THE NE-E
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THINK THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS TONIGHT. THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DROPPING EARLY BUT LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING BY SAT MORNING.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS
WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. GFS IS DRIER
IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A SPRINKLE CHANCE OR
POSSIBLY JUST VIRGA. BUT NAM/WRF LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN CHANCE EARLY SAT MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. SO WILL ADD A LOW POP TO SE KS.

SAT-SUN: EXPECT A COUPLE OF NICE SEASONAL TEMP DAYS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SRN
KS...CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.

AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE KS. MID LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FLINT HILL FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE.

NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...AS THIS ZONAL FLOW LEADS
TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS AS WELL.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WERE PROPAGATING SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06-07Z
TIMEFRAME WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER
08-09Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  39  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  38  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        52  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  39  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         58  38  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  39  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          54  37  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  37  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  37  66  43 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         50  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            49  36  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  65  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 270821
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
LOTS OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WITH THE NE-E
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THINK THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS TONIGHT. THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DROPPING EARLY BUT LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING BY SAT MORNING.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS
WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. GFS IS DRIER
IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A SPRINKLE CHANCE OR
POSSIBLY JUST VIRGA. BUT NAM/WRF LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN CHANCE EARLY SAT MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. SO WILL ADD A LOW POP TO SE KS.

SAT-SUN: EXPECT A COUPLE OF NICE SEASONAL TEMP DAYS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SRN
KS...CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.

AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE KS. MID LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FLINT HILL FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE.

NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...AS THIS ZONAL FLOW LEADS
TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS AS WELL.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WERE PROPAGATING SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06-07Z
TIMEFRAME WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER
08-09Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  39  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  38  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        52  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  39  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         58  38  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  39  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          54  37  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  37  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  37  66  43 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         50  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            49  36  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  65  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 270821
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
LOTS OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WITH THE NE-E
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THINK THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS TONIGHT. THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DROPPING EARLY BUT LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING BY SAT MORNING.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS
WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. GFS IS DRIER
IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A SPRINKLE CHANCE OR
POSSIBLY JUST VIRGA. BUT NAM/WRF LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN CHANCE EARLY SAT MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. SO WILL ADD A LOW POP TO SE KS.

SAT-SUN: EXPECT A COUPLE OF NICE SEASONAL TEMP DAYS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SRN
KS...CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.

AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE KS. MID LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FLINT HILL FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE.

NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...AS THIS ZONAL FLOW LEADS
TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS AS WELL.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WERE PROPAGATING SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06-07Z
TIMEFRAME WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER
08-09Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  39  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  38  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        52  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  39  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         58  38  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  39  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          54  37  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  37  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  37  66  43 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         50  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            49  36  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  65  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 270821
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
LOTS OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WITH THE NE-E
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THINK THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS TONIGHT. THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DROPPING EARLY BUT LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING BY SAT MORNING.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS
WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. GFS IS DRIER
IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A SPRINKLE CHANCE OR
POSSIBLY JUST VIRGA. BUT NAM/WRF LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN CHANCE EARLY SAT MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. SO WILL ADD A LOW POP TO SE KS.

SAT-SUN: EXPECT A COUPLE OF NICE SEASONAL TEMP DAYS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SRN
KS...CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.

AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE KS. MID LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FLINT HILL FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE.

NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...AS THIS ZONAL FLOW LEADS
TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS AS WELL.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WERE PROPAGATING SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06-07Z
TIMEFRAME WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER
08-09Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  39  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  38  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        52  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  39  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         58  38  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  39  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          54  37  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  37  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  37  66  43 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         50  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            49  36  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  65  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 270821
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
LOTS OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WITH THE NE-E
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THINK THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS TONIGHT. THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DROPPING EARLY BUT LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING BY SAT MORNING.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS
WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. GFS IS DRIER
IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A SPRINKLE CHANCE OR
POSSIBLY JUST VIRGA. BUT NAM/WRF LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN CHANCE EARLY SAT MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. SO WILL ADD A LOW POP TO SE KS.

SAT-SUN: EXPECT A COUPLE OF NICE SEASONAL TEMP DAYS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SRN
KS...CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.

AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE KS. MID LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FLINT HILL FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE.

NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...AS THIS ZONAL FLOW LEADS
TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS AS WELL.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WERE PROPAGATING SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06-07Z
TIMEFRAME WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER
08-09Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  39  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  38  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        52  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  39  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         58  38  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  39  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          54  37  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  37  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  37  66  43 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         50  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            49  36  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  65  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 270821
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR DROPPING SOUTH AS WELL.
LOTS OF POST FRONTAL COLD AIR STRATO-CU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.  WITH THE NE-E
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

THINK THE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE COOL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AS THIS
RIDGE MOVES EAST...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS TONIGHT. THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY LEAD TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
DROPPING EARLY BUT LEVELING OFF OR SLOWLY RISING BY SAT MORNING.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH SATURATION WILL OCCUR AS THIS
WARM ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. GFS IS DRIER
IN THE LOW LAYERS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A SPRINKLE CHANCE OR
POSSIBLY JUST VIRGA. BUT NAM/WRF LOOKS MOIST ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN CHANCE EARLY SAT MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. SO WILL ADD A LOW POP TO SE KS.

SAT-SUN: EXPECT A COUPLE OF NICE SEASONAL TEMP DAYS FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS NW FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SOME.  THE WARMEST DAY
APPEARS TO BE SUN...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS SRN
KS...CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.

AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE KS. MID LEVEL SATURATION
AGAIN LOOKS TO INCREASE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FLINT HILL FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LACKING FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE.

NOT MUCH OF A COOL DOWN EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME MORE ZONAL FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY OUT...AS THIS ZONAL FLOW LEADS
TO BETTER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS AS WELL.  BOTH MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON WED...WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR WED AFTERNOON AND WED
NIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WERE PROPAGATING SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06-07Z
TIMEFRAME WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER
08-09Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN COME SUNDAY
ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  39  71  47 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  38  71  46 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          53  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        52  38  68  46 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  39  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
RUSSELL         58  38  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      59  39  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          54  37  68  46 /  10  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       54  37  69  46 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  37  66  43 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         50  36  62  43 /  10  20  10   0
IOLA            49  36  60  42 /  10  20  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  36  65  43 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270724
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270724
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270724
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270724
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270724
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270724
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTE BEING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY FAST-MOVING,
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LARGER SCALE ZONAL PATTERN...FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH
THE MIDWEST REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH DOWNSLOPE
MODIFICATION, SO TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COOL, AND IN FACT STILL ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE (AVG. HIGH OF LOWER-MID 60S FOR DODGE CITY) FOR LATE MARCH.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY GULF MOISTURE INVOLVED TO GENERATE ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LATE WEEKEND STORM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

ANOTHER ZONAL PACIFIC JET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. BETTER QUALITY GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THIS STORM, WHICH IS WHY WE WILL CARRY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH KANSAS. YET ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER STORM SYSTEM QUICK
ON ITS HEELS COULD YIELD BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE END OF
THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (APRIL 2-
3).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270659
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270659
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270659
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270659
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270659
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270659
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1259 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER RIDGING AND WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA AND PERHAPS RESULT IN
A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL COOL OFF
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND PROVIDE BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
THROUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270633
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270633
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270633
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270633
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270633
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL



000
FXUS63 KDDC 270633
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM THE NORTHERN SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS. ANY
REAL THREAT FOR STRATUS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AFFECTING THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH MID MORNING (BEFORE
INSOLATION WARMS THE BOUNDARY LAYER).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  40  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  42  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  41  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  60  38  75  46 /  10   0   0  10
P28  60  41  77  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270519
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
TRHOUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MENTZER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270519
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
TRHOUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MENTZER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270519
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
TRHOUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270519
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
TRHOUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MENTZER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 270447 AAB
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs with briefly ifr conditions until 08z will linger
until 12z before scattering to vfr at 3500 feet. VFR conditions
are then expected thru the remainder of the forecast. Gusty north
to northeast winds of 10 to 20 kts will decrease to under 10 kts
by 08z and continue through the end of the forecast... although
winds may become light and variable aft 00z/28.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 270447 AAB
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs with briefly ifr conditions until 08z will linger
until 12z before scattering to vfr at 3500 feet. VFR conditions
are then expected thru the remainder of the forecast. Gusty north
to northeast winds of 10 to 20 kts will decrease to under 10 kts
by 08z and continue through the end of the forecast... although
winds may become light and variable aft 00z/28.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270447 AAB
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs with briefly ifr conditions until 08z will linger
until 12z before scattering to vfr at 3500 feet. VFR conditions
are then expected thru the remainder of the forecast. Gusty north
to northeast winds of 10 to 20 kts will decrease to under 10 kts
by 08z and continue through the end of the forecast... although
winds may become light and variable aft 00z/28.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KICT 270402
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WERE PROPAGATING SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06-07Z
TIMEFRAME WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER
08-09Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  20  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  20  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 270402
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WERE PROPAGATING SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06-07Z
TIMEFRAME WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER
08-09Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  20  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  20  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 270402
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND WERE PROPAGATING SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 06-07Z
TIMEFRAME WHILE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AFTER
08-09Z. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WHILE WINDS VEER TO THE EAST AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  20  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  20  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 270010 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs will overspread the TAFS sites from the north by 03z
with cigs 2000-3000 ft with 4-6 miles in light rain lowering to
1000-1500 feet by 06z with -ra lingering. The mvfr cigs will then
scatter near 2500 feet by 14Z all sites with vfr conditions then thru
the remainder of the TAF forecast. North to northeast winds will
be the rule through the fcsts at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 270010 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs will overspread the TAFS sites from the north by 03z
with cigs 2000-3000 ft with 4-6 miles in light rain lowering to
1000-1500 feet by 06z with -ra lingering. The mvfr cigs will then
scatter near 2500 feet by 14Z all sites with vfr conditions then thru
the remainder of the TAF forecast. North to northeast winds will
be the rule through the fcsts at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270010 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs will overspread the TAFS sites from the north by 03z
with cigs 2000-3000 ft with 4-6 miles in light rain lowering to
1000-1500 feet by 06z with -ra lingering. The mvfr cigs will then
scatter near 2500 feet by 14Z all sites with vfr conditions then thru
the remainder of the TAF forecast. North to northeast winds will
be the rule through the fcsts at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270010 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
710 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 705 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Mvfr cigs will overspread the TAFS sites from the north by 03z
with cigs 2000-3000 ft with 4-6 miles in light rain lowering to
1000-1500 feet by 06z with -ra lingering. The mvfr cigs will then
scatter near 2500 feet by 14Z all sites with vfr conditions then thru
the remainder of the TAF forecast. North to northeast winds will
be the rule through the fcsts at 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KICT 262343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 262343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 262343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 262343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 262343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 262343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 262343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 262343
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE PRIMARY AREA OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 262325
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 8K-10K FEET AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS KMCK AND KGLD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AFTER 04Z AS RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING...SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING...THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE SITES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK...AFTER 08Z. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INDICATE EITHER FOG OR PRECIPITATION IN
THE TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262325
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 8K-10K FEET AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS KMCK AND KGLD. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 18Z. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AFTER 04Z AS RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING...SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASING...THE QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE SITES. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KMCK...AFTER 08Z. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO INDICATE EITHER FOG OR PRECIPITATION IN
THE TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KDDC 262300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
CLEARING THROUGH MORNING. CIGS MIGHT BE LOW ENOUGH TO MVFR FOR KHYS
FOR TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING RESUMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  67  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  32  72  40  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  36  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  35  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  32  60  38  75 /  20  10   0   0
P28  37  60  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 262300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
CLEARING THROUGH MORNING. CIGS MIGHT BE LOW ENOUGH TO MVFR FOR KHYS
FOR TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING RESUMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  67  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  32  72  40  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  36  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  35  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  32  60  38  75 /  20  10   0   0
P28  37  60  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 262300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
CLEARING THROUGH MORNING. CIGS MIGHT BE LOW ENOUGH TO MVFR FOR KHYS
FOR TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING RESUMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  67  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  32  72  40  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  36  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  35  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  32  60  38  75 /  20  10   0   0
P28  37  60  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 262300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME
CLEARING THROUGH MORNING. CIGS MIGHT BE LOW ENOUGH TO MVFR FOR KHYS
FOR TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY 8-12 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING RESUMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  67  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  32  72  40  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  36  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  35  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  32  60  38  75 /  20  10   0   0
P28  37  60  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 262045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED WITH A THIN SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM 01Z THROUGH
11Z WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BUT QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH CIGS LOWERING TOWARD 5K FT OR SO.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6KTS THEN STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. CIGS REMAIN VFR AT 5-6K FT.

KMCK...COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z WEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 30KTS (AFTER 20Z) WITH A THIN SHIELD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 01Z CIGS LOWER AND SOME SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 06Z THROUGH
16Z CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY...BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG/BR POSSIBLE. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD RATHER LIGHT. AFTER
17Z CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED WITH A THIN SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM 01Z THROUGH
11Z WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BUT QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH CIGS LOWERING TOWARD 5K FT OR SO.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6KTS THEN STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. CIGS REMAIN VFR AT 5-6K FT.

KMCK...COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z WEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 30KTS (AFTER 20Z) WITH A THIN SHIELD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 01Z CIGS LOWER AND SOME SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 06Z THROUGH
16Z CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY...BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG/BR POSSIBLE. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD RATHER LIGHT. AFTER
17Z CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED WITH A THIN SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM 01Z THROUGH
11Z WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BUT QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH CIGS LOWERING TOWARD 5K FT OR SO.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6KTS THEN STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. CIGS REMAIN VFR AT 5-6K FT.

KMCK...COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z WEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 30KTS (AFTER 20Z) WITH A THIN SHIELD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 01Z CIGS LOWER AND SOME SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 06Z THROUGH
16Z CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY...BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG/BR POSSIBLE. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD RATHER LIGHT. AFTER
17Z CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED WITH A THIN SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM 01Z THROUGH
11Z WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BUT QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH CIGS LOWERING TOWARD 5K FT OR SO.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6KTS THEN STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. CIGS REMAIN VFR AT 5-6K FT.

KMCK...COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z WEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 30KTS (AFTER 20Z) WITH A THIN SHIELD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 01Z CIGS LOWER AND SOME SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 06Z THROUGH
16Z CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY...BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG/BR POSSIBLE. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD RATHER LIGHT. AFTER
17Z CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KTOP 262024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02Z
with all short term guidance showing CIGS quickly falling to low
end MVFR CIGS by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 MB while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR CIGS are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 262024
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Weak upper trough this afternoon continues to push southeast
across South Dakota into northern Nebraska. Where stratus clouds
have held for much of the day, bands of rain and snow were
impacting central and eastern portions of Nebraska. Across
northeast Kansas, mid level clouds were increasing from the north
as influence from the surface trough to the east has kept
northerly winds on the gusty side over eastern Kansas. Elsewhere,
winds are light with highs today on the cool side in the lower
50s.

Weak perturbation slides southeast towards the CWA this evening
bringing a good chance for rain showers to develop across portions
of northeast and east central Kansas. Best period for measurable
precipitation appears to be from 7 PM through 1 AM where near a
tenth of an inch of rainfall is possible. Fortunately, most of the
precip is expected to fall while temps are above freezing. Areas
east of highway 75 and north of interstate 70 may see some lingering
light rain mix with light snow or flurries after midnight as the
precip exits to the east. Increasing mid level subsidence lessens the
chance of this occurring as the stronger lift shifts east. Warm
ground temps warrant no concerns of accumulation.

Cool surface ridge builds in on Friday as light winds and mixing
will make it difficult for stratus to clear out before the next
system and mid level clouds arrive from the northwest. With the
partly to mostly cloudy skies and no strong signal of temperature
advection, have lowered highs especially over north central areas
down to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

For Friday night through Sunday, models continue to show weak
shortwaves within northwest flow aloft potentially clipping
northeast KS. The main uncertainty in this period is with the
shortwave on Sunday as the ECMWF/GEM show a more amplified wave
and slower progression with a frontal boundary while the GFS and
NAM weaken the wave as it moves through Sunday morning. Have
tended to go with a middle of the road forecast for Sunday holding
onto small POPs through the day across northeast and east central
KS since ECMWF ensemble data are a little more amplified than the
GFS but not as slow as the ECMWF. Nevertheless temps appear to be
warm enough for any precip to be rain late Saturday night and
Sunday. For Friday night, there is a small chance that there could
be a few snow flakes mix in with light rain. Forecast soundings
show surface temps above freezing Friday night, but wet bulb
cooling may allow for a brief mix of snow. General warm air
advection expected at 850MB with temps warming above 0C should
ensure any snow to have little or no impact. For temps have
trended highs down a couple degrees. Models show low level winds
remaining from the southeast on Saturday while 850MB temp
advection is modest. 850MB temps do not change much for Sunday
with possible frontal boundary moving through so think highs will
remain in the 60s.

Monday and Tuesday are expected to remain dry since there is not
obvious forcing for precip progged by the models, however there
may be a weak boundary move through the area. The GFS is more
aggressive with the boundary Tuesday. However the better forcing
and moisture are expected to remain south of the forecast area so
even if the boundary is able to maintain some definition, think
precip would be hard to come by as lift would be weak at best and
have kept a dry forecast.

A little better front is progged to move through on Wednesday.
Have continued with some small POPs Wednesday and Wednesday night
to account for the lift with only weak inhibition to convection. I
expect this front to be south of the area by Thursday, but there
are signs that return flow and elevated storms may try and develop
for Thursday night. Will need to stay tuned to see how things
evolve.

Seasonal temps are anticipated for next week with no strong signal
for a cold or warm anomaly from the models. Look for highs in the
70s and lows generally in the 40s. There could be a slight cool
down on Thursday low level flow is able to remain from the
northwest as progged by the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02Z
with all short term guidance showing CIGS quickly falling to low
end MVFR CIGS by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 MB while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR CIGS are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KGLD 262021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE SENT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTON TO GOVE AND POINTS EAST.

ADDED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON 12Z NAM/RUC SHALLOW INSTABILITY
FORECASTS WITH LIMITED CIN. IN THIS INSTABILITY AREA WILL BE SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH
WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. FELT THAT
WITH THE INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FORCING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE
FORECASTS A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WAS WARRANTED.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.

AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT
AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH CONDITIONS WILL GET
CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A
FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 20S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS WELL. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING...SLIDING SOUTHEAST. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA TO THE HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA.

OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN THIS SLIM CHANCE...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST.

FOR TODAY...MAIN WEATHER STORY IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES AMPLE MIXING BEFORE ARRIVAL OF DENSER CIRRUS. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST 700 MB WINDS APPROACHING 35-40 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA SURGES SOUTH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. WE SHOULD OBSERVE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW DEEPENS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED 15-30 MPH...GUSTING 40 TO POSSIBLY 45 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
A COUPLE DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. GLANCING AT THE JET STREAM...VORTICITY AND ISENTROPIC
FIELDS...AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE FEATURES ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT THE BEST LIFT/FORCING
REMAINS EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ANOTHER CONCERN
TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AS DENSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING TO ACHIEVE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WITH ANY SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MINIMAL AND FORECAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF A HAIGLER
NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS LINE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE
LIGHT...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO
OCCUR...DO NOT FORESEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE QUITE WARM.

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY`S
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
DEEPENING LOW WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURES AS FORECAST TODAY. A
NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
INCREASE 5-7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S. A "SOFT RECORD" OF 83 DEGREES AT BURLINGTON COLORADO MAY BE
VULNERABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED WITH A THIN SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM 01Z THROUGH
11Z WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BUT QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH CIGS LOWERING TOWARD 5K FT OR SO.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6KTS THEN STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. CIGS REMAIN VFR AT 5-6K FT.

KMCK...COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z WEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 30KTS (AFTER 20Z) WITH A THIN SHIELD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 01Z CIGS LOWER AND SOME SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 06Z THROUGH
16Z CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY...BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG/BR POSSIBLE. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD RATHER LIGHT. AFTER
17Z CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE SENT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTON TO GOVE AND POINTS EAST.

ADDED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON 12Z NAM/RUC SHALLOW INSTABILITY
FORECASTS WITH LIMITED CIN. IN THIS INSTABILITY AREA WILL BE SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH
WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. FELT THAT
WITH THE INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FORCING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE
FORECASTS A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WAS WARRANTED.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.

AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT
AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH CONDITIONS WILL GET
CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A
FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 20S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS WELL. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING...SLIDING SOUTHEAST. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA TO THE HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA.

OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN THIS SLIM CHANCE...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST.

FOR TODAY...MAIN WEATHER STORY IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES AMPLE MIXING BEFORE ARRIVAL OF DENSER CIRRUS. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST 700 MB WINDS APPROACHING 35-40 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA SURGES SOUTH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. WE SHOULD OBSERVE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW DEEPENS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED 15-30 MPH...GUSTING 40 TO POSSIBLY 45 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
A COUPLE DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. GLANCING AT THE JET STREAM...VORTICITY AND ISENTROPIC
FIELDS...AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE FEATURES ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT THE BEST LIFT/FORCING
REMAINS EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ANOTHER CONCERN
TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AS DENSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING TO ACHIEVE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WITH ANY SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MINIMAL AND FORECAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF A HAIGLER
NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS LINE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE
LIGHT...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO
OCCUR...DO NOT FORESEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE QUITE WARM.

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY`S
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
DEEPENING LOW WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURES AS FORECAST TODAY. A
NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
INCREASE 5-7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S. A "SOFT RECORD" OF 83 DEGREES AT BURLINGTON COLORADO MAY BE
VULNERABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED WITH A THIN SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM 01Z THROUGH
11Z WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BUT QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH CIGS LOWERING TOWARD 5K FT OR SO.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6KTS THEN STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. CIGS REMAIN VFR AT 5-6K FT.

KMCK...COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z WEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 30KTS (AFTER 20Z) WITH A THIN SHIELD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 01Z CIGS LOWER AND SOME SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 06Z THROUGH
16Z CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY...BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG/BR POSSIBLE. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD RATHER LIGHT. AFTER
17Z CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE SENT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTON TO GOVE AND POINTS EAST.

ADDED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON 12Z NAM/RUC SHALLOW INSTABILITY
FORECASTS WITH LIMITED CIN. IN THIS INSTABILITY AREA WILL BE SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH
WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. FELT THAT
WITH THE INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FORCING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE
FORECASTS A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WAS WARRANTED.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.

AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT
AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH CONDITIONS WILL GET
CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A
FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 20S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS WELL. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING...SLIDING SOUTHEAST. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA TO THE HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA.

OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN THIS SLIM CHANCE...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST.

FOR TODAY...MAIN WEATHER STORY IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES AMPLE MIXING BEFORE ARRIVAL OF DENSER CIRRUS. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST 700 MB WINDS APPROACHING 35-40 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA SURGES SOUTH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. WE SHOULD OBSERVE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW DEEPENS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED 15-30 MPH...GUSTING 40 TO POSSIBLY 45 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
A COUPLE DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. GLANCING AT THE JET STREAM...VORTICITY AND ISENTROPIC
FIELDS...AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE FEATURES ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT THE BEST LIFT/FORCING
REMAINS EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ANOTHER CONCERN
TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AS DENSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING TO ACHIEVE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WITH ANY SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MINIMAL AND FORECAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF A HAIGLER
NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS LINE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE
LIGHT...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO
OCCUR...DO NOT FORESEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE QUITE WARM.

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY`S
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
DEEPENING LOW WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURES AS FORECAST TODAY. A
NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
INCREASE 5-7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S. A "SOFT RECORD" OF 83 DEGREES AT BURLINGTON COLORADO MAY BE
VULNERABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED WITH A THIN SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM 01Z THROUGH
11Z WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BUT QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH CIGS LOWERING TOWARD 5K FT OR SO.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6KTS THEN STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. CIGS REMAIN VFR AT 5-6K FT.

KMCK...COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z WEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 30KTS (AFTER 20Z) WITH A THIN SHIELD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 01Z CIGS LOWER AND SOME SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 06Z THROUGH
16Z CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY...BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG/BR POSSIBLE. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD RATHER LIGHT. AFTER
17Z CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE SENT...MAINLY TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY NORTON TO GOVE AND POINTS EAST.

ADDED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON 12Z NAM/RUC SHALLOW INSTABILITY
FORECASTS WITH LIMITED CIN. IN THIS INSTABILITY AREA WILL BE SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E CONVERGENCE AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE HIGH
WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. FELT THAT
WITH THE INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL FORCING AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE
FORECASTS A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WAS WARRANTED.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW 60S FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA.

AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS WILL APPROACH 20 PERCENT
AND WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH CONDITIONS WILL GET
CLOSE TO BUT NOT MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

AS OF 3 AM CDT...2 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. A
FEW READINGS IN THE LOW 20S ARE BEING OBSERVED AS WELL. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT THE SURFACE...AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
DRAPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING...SLIDING SOUTHEAST. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA TO THE HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA.

OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHER THAN THIS SLIM CHANCE...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST.

FOR TODAY...MAIN WEATHER STORY IS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES AMPLE MIXING BEFORE ARRIVAL OF DENSER CIRRUS. MOST MODELS
SUGGEST 700 MB WINDS APPROACHING 35-40 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE LOW OVER MONTANA SURGES SOUTH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. WE SHOULD OBSERVE RAPID PRESSURE FALLS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW DEEPENS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED 15-30 MPH...GUSTING 40 TO POSSIBLY 45 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT THE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
A COUPLE DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
THE REGION. GLANCING AT THE JET STREAM...VORTICITY AND ISENTROPIC
FIELDS...AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH HOW THE FEATURES ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. FEEL THAT THE BEST LIFT/FORCING
REMAINS EAST OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. ANOTHER CONCERN
TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES AS DENSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING TO ACHIEVE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WITH ANY SHOWERS. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS MINIMAL AND FORECAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH/EAST OF A HAIGLER
NEBRASKA TO NORTON KANSAS LINE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE
LIGHT...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO
OCCUR...DO NOT FORESEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE QUITE WARM.

ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY`S
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING A
DEEPENING LOW WITH RAPIDLY FALLING PRESSURES AS FORECAST TODAY. A
NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
INCREASE 5-7 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS
SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S. A "SOFT RECORD" OF 83 DEGREES AT BURLINGTON COLORADO MAY BE
VULNERABLE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

KGLD...FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30KTS
EXPECTED WITH A THIN SHIELD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FROM 01Z THROUGH
11Z WINDS INITIALLY NORTHWEST AROUND 11KTS BUT QUICKLY DECREASE
AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH CIGS LOWERING TOWARD 5K FT OR SO.
FROM 12Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS INITIALLY SOUTHEAST
AROUND 6KTS THEN STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST AND
SPEEDS AROUND 10KTS. CIGS REMAIN VFR AT 5-6K FT.

KMCK...COMPLEX SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE IN THE MAKING. FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z WEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND GUST NEAR 30KTS (AFTER 20Z) WITH A THIN SHIELD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. AFTER 01Z CIGS LOWER AND SOME SHOWERS OF
RAIN/SNOW OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH
06Z WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 06Z THROUGH
16Z CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY...BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IN THE 12Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME WHERE IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS
AND FOG/BR POSSIBLE. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD RATHER LIGHT. AFTER
17Z CIGS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KICT 261954
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
254 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 261954
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
254 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261954
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
254 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 261954
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
254 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE VIA LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL RACE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF IT
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO A FORCE
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER OUT DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS.
IT WILL BE A COLD START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A NICE WARMING
TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY. ANOTHER FLEET-FOOTED
UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOME SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW SPLIT-LEVEL UPPER FLOW FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE MAKES IT AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH KANSAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGE...AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THAT
SCENARIO. OTHERWISE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A SPLIT-UPPER FLOW AND
CONVERGE INTO A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH RICHER GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KANSAS AS A SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE VICINITY. A COUPLE UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE...THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND WINDS REMAINING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
COME SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS...AS NORTHERLY WINDS PICK
UP BEHIND A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  54  38  69 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      33  54  37  70 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          33  53  37  68 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        33  52  37  66 /  10  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  53  38  69 /  10   0  10   0
RUSSELL         31  58  37  74 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      32  59  38  74 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          31  54  36  68 /  30  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       32  54  37  69 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  52  35  65 /  10  10  10   0
CHANUTE         31  50  35  62 /  30  10  10  10
IOLA            31  49  35  61 /  30  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  51  35  64 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261931
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
231 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO
25KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE MID TO
LATE EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF KANSAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  70  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  34  72  41  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  38  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  37  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  31  62  38  75 /  10  10   0   0
P28  37  62  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 261931
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
231 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO
25KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE MID TO
LATE EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF KANSAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  70  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  34  72  41  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  38  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  37  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  31  62  38  75 /  10  10   0   0
P28  37  62  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261931
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
231 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO
25KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE MID TO
LATE EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF KANSAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  70  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  34  72  41  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  38  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  37  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  31  62  38  75 /  10  10   0   0
P28  37  62  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 261931
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
231 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDING BUILDING ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES PLACING
NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH USUALLY SUPPRESSES
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM FORMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL (WEST TO EAST) WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 70S SATURDAY
AND TUESDAY AND LOWER 70S SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER 30S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO
25KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE MID TO
LATE EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF KANSAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  70  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  34  72  41  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  38  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  37  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  31  62  38  75 /  10  10   0   0
P28  37  62  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

OVERALL, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL BY LATE
MARCH STANDARDS DURING THE PERIOD FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID-NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST
FLOW JET STREAK WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY, AND A REINFORCING POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FRIDAY WITH A FAIRLY SHARP
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT EXPECTED. WILL BE GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 60 FROM HAYS TO
PRATT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF SATURDAY WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY SMALL SCALE, BUT SOMEWHAT INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER HIGHS WILL BE
REALIZED, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTH, RESULTING
IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES LESS
THAN SATURDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE
MARCH. THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH
CONTINUED ZONAL MOMENTUM ACROSS THE ROCKIES LEADING TO A LOT OF
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC DOWNSLOPE. THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH MAY
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO COME BACK UP INTO KANSAS BY MID NEXT WEEK,
BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THIS WILL BE MANIFEST AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GO WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO
25KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE MID TO
LATE EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF KANSAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  70  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  34  72  40  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  38  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  37  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  31  64  38  75 /  10  10   0   0
P28  37  63  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KICT 261745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE PLAINS...WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL FILL IN ON THE REAR
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
CONSEQUENTIAL WITH LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING RATHER
DRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A NICE DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE MORE DEAMPLIFIED AND QUASI-ZONAL OFF OF
THE PACIFIC DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...IS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE DAMPENED WITH
THIS FEATURE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR NORTH WITH THAT WAVE. A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE- 850 RIDGING OVER THE GULF FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY.
THE MODELS DO AGREE ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY LOW
TO MODERATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST KS TODAY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD RESULT
IN HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  34  58  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          56  32  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  33  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  34  58  40 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         60  31  61  37 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  31  62  38 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          57  33  58  36 /  10  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  33  58  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  35  55  37 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         55  33  53  37 /  10  30  10  10
IOLA            54  33  52  36 /  10  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  34  54  37 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 261745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE PLAINS...WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL FILL IN ON THE REAR
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
CONSEQUENTIAL WITH LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING RATHER
DRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A NICE DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE MORE DEAMPLIFIED AND QUASI-ZONAL OFF OF
THE PACIFIC DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...IS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE DAMPENED WITH
THIS FEATURE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR NORTH WITH THAT WAVE. A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE- 850 RIDGING OVER THE GULF FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY.
THE MODELS DO AGREE ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY LOW
TO MODERATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST KS TODAY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD RESULT
IN HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  34  58  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          56  32  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  33  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  34  58  40 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         60  31  61  37 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  31  62  38 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          57  33  58  36 /  10  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  33  58  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  35  55  37 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         55  33  53  37 /  10  30  10  10
IOLA            54  33  52  36 /  10  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  34  54  37 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 261745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE PLAINS...WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL FILL IN ON THE REAR
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
CONSEQUENTIAL WITH LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING RATHER
DRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A NICE DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE MORE DEAMPLIFIED AND QUASI-ZONAL OFF OF
THE PACIFIC DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...IS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE DAMPENED WITH
THIS FEATURE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR NORTH WITH THAT WAVE. A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE- 850 RIDGING OVER THE GULF FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY.
THE MODELS DO AGREE ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY LOW
TO MODERATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST KS TODAY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD RESULT
IN HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  34  58  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          56  32  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  33  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  34  58  40 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         60  31  61  37 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  31  62  38 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          57  33  58  36 /  10  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  33  58  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  35  55  37 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         55  33  53  37 /  10  30  10  10
IOLA            54  33  52  36 /  10  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  34  54  37 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 261745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE PLAINS...WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL FILL IN ON THE REAR
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
CONSEQUENTIAL WITH LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING RATHER
DRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A NICE DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE MORE DEAMPLIFIED AND QUASI-ZONAL OFF OF
THE PACIFIC DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...IS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE DAMPENED WITH
THIS FEATURE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR NORTH WITH THAT WAVE. A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE- 850 RIDGING OVER THE GULF FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY.
THE MODELS DO AGREE ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY LOW
TO MODERATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST KS TODAY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD RESULT
IN HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  34  58  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          56  32  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  33  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  34  58  40 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         60  31  61  37 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  31  62  38 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          57  33  58  36 /  10  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  33  58  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  35  55  37 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         55  33  53  37 /  10  30  10  10
IOLA            54  33  52  36 /  10  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  34  54  37 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 261745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE PLAINS...WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL FILL IN ON THE REAR
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
CONSEQUENTIAL WITH LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING RATHER
DRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A NICE DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE MORE DEAMPLIFIED AND QUASI-ZONAL OFF OF
THE PACIFIC DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...IS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE DAMPENED WITH
THIS FEATURE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR NORTH WITH THAT WAVE. A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE- 850 RIDGING OVER THE GULF FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY.
THE MODELS DO AGREE ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY LOW
TO MODERATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST KS TODAY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD RESULT
IN HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  34  58  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          56  32  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  33  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  34  58  40 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         60  31  61  37 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  31  62  38 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          57  33  58  36 /  10  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  33  58  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  35  55  37 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         55  33  53  37 /  10  30  10  10
IOLA            54  33  52  36 /  10  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  34  54  37 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH...NOW EVIDENT VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
THE PLAINS...WILL VERY GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS BY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL FILL IN ON THE REAR
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...PROVIDING SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
CONSEQUENTIAL WITH LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEING RATHER
DRY. OTHERWISE...COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY...MAKING FOR A NICE DAY FOR
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE MORE DEAMPLIFIED AND QUASI-ZONAL OFF OF
THE PACIFIC DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...IS THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE MUCH MORE DAMPENED WITH
THIS FEATURE. SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS FAR NORTH WITH THAT WAVE. A PACIFIC
FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY A WIND SHIFT. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
MEAGER DUE TO SURFACE- 850 RIDGING OVER THE GULF FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH-BASED SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY.
THE MODELS DO AGREE ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BETTER AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUICK MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL IS MOVING OVERHEAD CHANGING
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 4-6Z CHANGING WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE
NORTH AND BREEZY. CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BE MVFR WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 1500-2500FT. HAVE LEFT SCATTERED MENTION AT THIS TIME TO
HINT AT THE MVFR POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY FRIDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO MAINLY LOW
TO MODERATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SOUTHEAST KS TODAY WHERE NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD RESULT
IN HIGH FIRE DANGER FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  34  58  38 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  33  59  37 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          56  32  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  33  56  37 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  34  58  40 /  10  10   0  10
RUSSELL         60  31  61  37 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  31  62  38 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          57  33  58  36 /  10  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       57  33  58  37 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     56  35  55  37 /  10  10  10  10
CHANUTE         55  33  53  37 /  10  30  10  10
IOLA            54  33  52  36 /  10  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    56  34  54  37 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 261736
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02z
with all short term guidance showing cigs quickly falling to low
end MVFR cigs by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 mb while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR cigs are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261736
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02z
with all short term guidance showing cigs quickly falling to low
end MVFR cigs by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 mb while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR cigs are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261736
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are expected both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR prevails through the afternoon as the next system arrives from
north and west of terminals. Light rain showers develop after 02z
with all short term guidance showing cigs quickly falling to low
end MVFR cigs by 06Z. Cross sections depict a shallow layer of
drier increasing above 850 mb while low level saturation holds
near the sfc after the rainfall exits near 09Z. This would suggest
IFR cigs are possible from 09Z until mixing increases for stratus
to lift back to VFR mid morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KTOP 261736
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The positively-tilted mid-level trough was situated over the
forecast area early this morning and will shift east of the area
this morning. Behind this exiting trough, surface high pressure was
advancing across western Kansas and models show it quickly tracking
southeastward through the day, keeping most of the forecast area dry
for much of the daytime hours. With cloud cover gradually scattering
out early this morning, expect low temperatures this morning to drop into
the upper 20s north to low/mid 30s south. With the surface high
shifting south of the area today, winds will remain out of the
north, helping to keep conditions a bit cooler once again with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast
to southwest across the CWA.

Water vapor imagery showed a weak disturbance over Montana early
this morning and models show this disturbance strengthening today as
it becomes an embedded shortwave that traverses southeastward along
the western mid-level trough axis. Synoptic and short-range models
are in good agreement with the development of this wave as well as
with the timing of precipitation chances. Models show areas of light
rain approaching the Nebraska/Kansas border and moving into far
northern Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. With modest
isentropic lift present across northeast Kansas this evening, expect
widespread rain showers to develop through the evening hours before
finally exiting far eastern Kansas during the overnight hours. The
main uncertainty with the passing wave is how far south the
precipitation will extend across the forecast area since a few
models show only a few stray showers skimming across the far
southern edge of the CWA. With the decent isentropic lift in place,
increased PoPs across northeast and far eastern Kansas and also
increased PoPs a bit during the overnight hours across far eastern
Kansas as models hold on to some scattered light precipitation.
Depending upon how long precipitation lingers over far eastern
Kansas overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of some snowflakes
mixing in with the rain as low temperatures are expected to drop
into the upper 20s to low 30s. However, any snow that does mix in
with the rain should melt when it reaches the ground.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Surface high pressure will be over eastern Kansas on Friday along
with a northwest upper flow pattern. With the surface ridge in
northeast Kansas and little mixing will see highs reaching the upper
40s in far northeast Kansas to the mid 50s in north central Kansas.
Friday night energy moving south from the northern Plains will bring
a small chance of light rain during the evening hours then dry after
midnight as forcing shifts to the east across Missouri. Lows Friday
night should drop into the lower to mid 30s with the warmer temps
across the western sections of the CWA where return flow develops on
the back side of the departing surface high. Seasonal temperatures
in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected on Saturday as heights
begin to rise across the Plains as the longwave upper trough moves
off into the eastern U.S.. On Sunday a shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the Plains sweeping a frontal boundary across the
area through the day. There remains uncertainty and low confidence
with the Sunday system due to timing differences and strength of the
forcing this far south into Kansas. Therefore will maintain a slight
chance of rain on Sunday. Despite the pacific front moving through
expect highs to reach the 65 to 70 degree range for highs.

The GFS continues to be stronger and further north with an upper
level trough moving across Texas on Tuesday while the GEM and the
ECMWF remain more dampened and further south. Will keep the forecast
dry on Tuesday. However Tuesday night into Wednesday the models are
in better agreement with a shortwave trough moving across the
Northern Plains. Gulf moisture and instability will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday in the warm sector ahead of a Pacific cool
front moving southeast into Kansas on Wednesday. Will maintain low
chances of thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures
in the 70s are