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000
FXUS63 KICT 081145
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE COMBINING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY BUT POSSIBLY STRONGER. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP MIXING TO 8000H WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SE KS...WHERE GRADIENT
AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
ALREADY HOISTED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...AND THINK THIS LOOKS FINE. THINK THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS PLACES REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

EXPECTING COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY..GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT
SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL TEMPER THE COOL
DOWN. THE DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION IN
THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND
GENERALLY THROUGH FRI. TODAYS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WINDS THAT ARE LESS GUSTY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. EXPECT
BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN
THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MODERATING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THU AND FRI AS NW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...SO WOULD PREFER TO REMOVE
POPS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES LATER IN THE
WEEK. QUICK HITTING NATURE WILL NOT LEAD TO MUCH OF A PRECIP
CHANCE EVEN IF MOISTURE DOES IMPROVE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
REGIONWIDE...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ANTICIPATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL WILL SKIRT FAR EASTERN KANSAS
TODAY...WITH POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THINKING THE
FLURRIES MAY REMAIN JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF CNU. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME VALUES MAINLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. SOME CONCERN THAT COOLER TEMPS...WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. BUT THINK THAT CURED FUELS WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND LEAD TO ANY FIRE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL GIVEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          40  24  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        40  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         38  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          39  23  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  24  41  22 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            37  23  39  21 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  25  43  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ050-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 081145
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE COMBINING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY BUT POSSIBLY STRONGER. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP MIXING TO 8000H WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SE KS...WHERE GRADIENT
AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
ALREADY HOISTED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...AND THINK THIS LOOKS FINE. THINK THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS PLACES REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

EXPECTING COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY..GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT
SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL TEMPER THE COOL
DOWN. THE DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION IN
THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND
GENERALLY THROUGH FRI. TODAYS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WINDS THAT ARE LESS GUSTY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. EXPECT
BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN
THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MODERATING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THU AND FRI AS NW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...SO WOULD PREFER TO REMOVE
POPS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES LATER IN THE
WEEK. QUICK HITTING NATURE WILL NOT LEAD TO MUCH OF A PRECIP
CHANCE EVEN IF MOISTURE DOES IMPROVE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
REGIONWIDE...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ANTICIPATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL WILL SKIRT FAR EASTERN KANSAS
TODAY...WITH POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THINKING THE
FLURRIES MAY REMAIN JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF CNU. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME VALUES MAINLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. SOME CONCERN THAT COOLER TEMPS...WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. BUT THINK THAT CURED FUELS WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND LEAD TO ANY FIRE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL GIVEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          40  24  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        40  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         38  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          39  23  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  24  41  22 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            37  23  39  21 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  25  43  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ050-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 081145
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE COMBINING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY BUT POSSIBLY STRONGER. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP MIXING TO 8000H WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SE KS...WHERE GRADIENT
AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
ALREADY HOISTED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...AND THINK THIS LOOKS FINE. THINK THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS PLACES REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

EXPECTING COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY..GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT
SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL TEMPER THE COOL
DOWN. THE DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION IN
THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND
GENERALLY THROUGH FRI. TODAYS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WINDS THAT ARE LESS GUSTY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. EXPECT
BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN
THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MODERATING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THU AND FRI AS NW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...SO WOULD PREFER TO REMOVE
POPS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES LATER IN THE
WEEK. QUICK HITTING NATURE WILL NOT LEAD TO MUCH OF A PRECIP
CHANCE EVEN IF MOISTURE DOES IMPROVE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
REGIONWIDE...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ANTICIPATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL WILL SKIRT FAR EASTERN KANSAS
TODAY...WITH POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THINKING THE
FLURRIES MAY REMAIN JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF CNU. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME VALUES MAINLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. SOME CONCERN THAT COOLER TEMPS...WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. BUT THINK THAT CURED FUELS WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND LEAD TO ANY FIRE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL GIVEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          40  24  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        40  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         38  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          39  23  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  24  41  22 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            37  23  39  21 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  25  43  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ050-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 081145
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE COMBINING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY BUT POSSIBLY STRONGER. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP MIXING TO 8000H WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SE KS...WHERE GRADIENT
AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
ALREADY HOISTED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...AND THINK THIS LOOKS FINE. THINK THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS PLACES REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

EXPECTING COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY..GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT
SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL TEMPER THE COOL
DOWN. THE DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION IN
THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND
GENERALLY THROUGH FRI. TODAYS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WINDS THAT ARE LESS GUSTY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. EXPECT
BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN
THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MODERATING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THU AND FRI AS NW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...SO WOULD PREFER TO REMOVE
POPS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES LATER IN THE
WEEK. QUICK HITTING NATURE WILL NOT LEAD TO MUCH OF A PRECIP
CHANCE EVEN IF MOISTURE DOES IMPROVE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
REGIONWIDE...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ANTICIPATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL WILL SKIRT FAR EASTERN KANSAS
TODAY...WITH POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THINKING THE
FLURRIES MAY REMAIN JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF CNU. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME VALUES MAINLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. SOME CONCERN THAT COOLER TEMPS...WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. BUT THINK THAT CURED FUELS WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND LEAD TO ANY FIRE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL GIVEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          40  24  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        40  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         38  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          39  23  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  24  41  22 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            37  23  39  21 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  25  43  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ050-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 081145
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE COMBINING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY BUT POSSIBLY STRONGER. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
DEEP MIXING TO 8000H WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40-45
KTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SE KS...WHERE GRADIENT
AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE
ALREADY HOISTED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...AND THINK THIS LOOKS FINE. THINK THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS PLACES REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

EXPECTING COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY..GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT
SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL TEMPER THE COOL
DOWN. THE DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION IN
THE FIRE SECTION BELOW.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND
GENERALLY THROUGH FRI. TODAYS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WINDS THAT ARE LESS GUSTY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. EXPECT
BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN
THE NW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX
TEMPS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MODERATING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THU AND FRI AS NW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...SO WOULD PREFER TO REMOVE
POPS FOR NOW AND SEE IF MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES LATER IN THE
WEEK. QUICK HITTING NATURE WILL NOT LEAD TO MUCH OF A PRECIP
CHANCE EVEN IF MOISTURE DOES IMPROVE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
REGIONWIDE...DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
ANTICIPATING SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS...WITH GUSTS
LIKELY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER. ADDITIONALLY...LOW
VFR CIGS AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL WILL SKIRT FAR EASTERN KANSAS
TODAY...WITH POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THINKING THE
FLURRIES MAY REMAIN JUST EAST/NORTHEAST OF CNU. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME VALUES MAINLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. SOME CONCERN THAT COOLER TEMPS...WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. BUT THINK THAT CURED FUELS WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND LEAD TO ANY FIRE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL GIVEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          40  24  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        40  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         38  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          39  23  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  24  41  22 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            37  23  39  21 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  25  43  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ050-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 081137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
537 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level low centered just west of the
Great Lakes region, with the western edge of the deep mid-level
trough stretching across the Northern and Central Plains.  With an
embedded shortwave skimming just to the east of the area, there was
an increase in low-level moisture early this morning. Model
soundings show some weak instability present in the low-level
saturation layer, which was enough to help produce some light snow
squall showers across the area (primarily across eastern Kansas).
With the better moisture and instability focused further east in
Missouri, some very light snow accumulation will be possible across
far northeast and far eastern Kansas however many locations likely
will not see any snow accumulation.  Short-range models and model
soundings suggest that these light snow squall showers will persist
through the morning hours but gradually exit to the east, with dry
conditions by early to mid afternoon.

Models show a very strong low and mid-level jet tracking across
central and eastern Kansas today, with 45-50kt winds at 850mb. With
model soundings showing decent mixing early this morning and this
decent mixing persisting through much of the day, expect these
strong winds to mix down to the surface, resulting in another very
breezy day.  The strongest winds are actually expected this morning
with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts of 45-50mph likely before
gradually diminishing by mid to late afternoon.  As a result, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect for the entire outlook area today.  The
passing embedded shortwave along with the persistent breezy
northwesterly winds will help to advect some cooler temperatures
into the area with highs only reaching into the 30s to possibly near
40 degrees today.

Cloud cover should start to scatter out some during the overnight
hours tonight with northwesterly winds continuing to support some
cold air advection. As a result, lows tonight will likely drop into
the upper teens to low/mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The long term forecast is rather quiet in terms of sensible
weather. The only precipitation chances worthy of mentioning in
the forecast are small and focused on Sunday as several model runs
have brought a storm system across the central Plains. However,
to be fair, the model trend has been toward a less impressive
storm system over the past few runs, and the operational GFS now
steers the system north of the local area. Otherwise, will still
want to keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday, and possibly on
Wednesday as weak clipper systems will move quickly through the
northwesterly flow pattern with an outside chance to clip
northeast KS with flurry or light snow activity.

Otherwise, still looking for temperatures to modify a bit through
the week, although have trended a few degrees cooler than previous
forecasts in several periods as that northwesterly flow looks more
likely to maintain itself longer and farther south. This would
prevent the warm air and upper ridging from building east into the
local area and result in more gradual warming with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 528 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

For the 12z TAFs, some flurries or very light snow showers may
clip KTOP/KFOE this morning, however little to no snow
accumulation is expected. Some scattered MVFR cigs will be
possible at times through the day, particularly with any light
snow that develops. The breezy northwesterly winds will quickly
increase this morning with gusts reaching up to 35 to 45kts by mid
to late morning and persisting into this afternoon. While these
winds should diminish by early this evening, still expect 20-25kt
wind gusts at KTOP/KFOE through the overnight hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 081137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
537 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level low centered just west of the
Great Lakes region, with the western edge of the deep mid-level
trough stretching across the Northern and Central Plains.  With an
embedded shortwave skimming just to the east of the area, there was
an increase in low-level moisture early this morning. Model
soundings show some weak instability present in the low-level
saturation layer, which was enough to help produce some light snow
squall showers across the area (primarily across eastern Kansas).
With the better moisture and instability focused further east in
Missouri, some very light snow accumulation will be possible across
far northeast and far eastern Kansas however many locations likely
will not see any snow accumulation.  Short-range models and model
soundings suggest that these light snow squall showers will persist
through the morning hours but gradually exit to the east, with dry
conditions by early to mid afternoon.

Models show a very strong low and mid-level jet tracking across
central and eastern Kansas today, with 45-50kt winds at 850mb. With
model soundings showing decent mixing early this morning and this
decent mixing persisting through much of the day, expect these
strong winds to mix down to the surface, resulting in another very
breezy day.  The strongest winds are actually expected this morning
with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts of 45-50mph likely before
gradually diminishing by mid to late afternoon.  As a result, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect for the entire outlook area today.  The
passing embedded shortwave along with the persistent breezy
northwesterly winds will help to advect some cooler temperatures
into the area with highs only reaching into the 30s to possibly near
40 degrees today.

Cloud cover should start to scatter out some during the overnight
hours tonight with northwesterly winds continuing to support some
cold air advection. As a result, lows tonight will likely drop into
the upper teens to low/mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The long term forecast is rather quiet in terms of sensible
weather. The only precipitation chances worthy of mentioning in
the forecast are small and focused on Sunday as several model runs
have brought a storm system across the central Plains. However,
to be fair, the model trend has been toward a less impressive
storm system over the past few runs, and the operational GFS now
steers the system north of the local area. Otherwise, will still
want to keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday, and possibly on
Wednesday as weak clipper systems will move quickly through the
northwesterly flow pattern with an outside chance to clip
northeast KS with flurry or light snow activity.

Otherwise, still looking for temperatures to modify a bit through
the week, although have trended a few degrees cooler than previous
forecasts in several periods as that northwesterly flow looks more
likely to maintain itself longer and farther south. This would
prevent the warm air and upper ridging from building east into the
local area and result in more gradual warming with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 528 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

For the 12z TAFs, some flurries or very light snow showers may
clip KTOP/KFOE this morning, however little to no snow
accumulation is expected. Some scattered MVFR cigs will be
possible at times through the day, particularly with any light
snow that develops. The breezy northwesterly winds will quickly
increase this morning with gusts reaching up to 35 to 45kts by mid
to late morning and persisting into this afternoon. While these
winds should diminish by early this evening, still expect 20-25kt
wind gusts at KTOP/KFOE through the overnight hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke



000
FXUS63 KTOP 081137
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
537 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level low centered just west of the
Great Lakes region, with the western edge of the deep mid-level
trough stretching across the Northern and Central Plains.  With an
embedded shortwave skimming just to the east of the area, there was
an increase in low-level moisture early this morning. Model
soundings show some weak instability present in the low-level
saturation layer, which was enough to help produce some light snow
squall showers across the area (primarily across eastern Kansas).
With the better moisture and instability focused further east in
Missouri, some very light snow accumulation will be possible across
far northeast and far eastern Kansas however many locations likely
will not see any snow accumulation.  Short-range models and model
soundings suggest that these light snow squall showers will persist
through the morning hours but gradually exit to the east, with dry
conditions by early to mid afternoon.

Models show a very strong low and mid-level jet tracking across
central and eastern Kansas today, with 45-50kt winds at 850mb. With
model soundings showing decent mixing early this morning and this
decent mixing persisting through much of the day, expect these
strong winds to mix down to the surface, resulting in another very
breezy day.  The strongest winds are actually expected this morning
with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts of 45-50mph likely before
gradually diminishing by mid to late afternoon.  As a result, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect for the entire outlook area today.  The
passing embedded shortwave along with the persistent breezy
northwesterly winds will help to advect some cooler temperatures
into the area with highs only reaching into the 30s to possibly near
40 degrees today.

Cloud cover should start to scatter out some during the overnight
hours tonight with northwesterly winds continuing to support some
cold air advection. As a result, lows tonight will likely drop into
the upper teens to low/mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The long term forecast is rather quiet in terms of sensible
weather. The only precipitation chances worthy of mentioning in
the forecast are small and focused on Sunday as several model runs
have brought a storm system across the central Plains. However,
to be fair, the model trend has been toward a less impressive
storm system over the past few runs, and the operational GFS now
steers the system north of the local area. Otherwise, will still
want to keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday, and possibly on
Wednesday as weak clipper systems will move quickly through the
northwesterly flow pattern with an outside chance to clip
northeast KS with flurry or light snow activity.

Otherwise, still looking for temperatures to modify a bit through
the week, although have trended a few degrees cooler than previous
forecasts in several periods as that northwesterly flow looks more
likely to maintain itself longer and farther south. This would
prevent the warm air and upper ridging from building east into the
local area and result in more gradual warming with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 528 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

For the 12z TAFs, some flurries or very light snow showers may
clip KTOP/KFOE this morning, however little to no snow
accumulation is expected. Some scattered MVFR cigs will be
possible at times through the day, particularly with any light
snow that develops. The breezy northwesterly winds will quickly
increase this morning with gusts reaching up to 35 to 45kts by mid
to late morning and persisting into this afternoon. While these
winds should diminish by early this evening, still expect 20-25kt
wind gusts at KTOP/KFOE through the overnight hours.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 081129
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
529 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Updated Aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A very deep trough will continue to mature well to our east...over
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Monday. The strong upper
tropospheric jet core on the backside of this trough will extend
from the Dakotas down into western Kansas with an intense 800-700mb
gradient continuing. This will support surface winds once again in
the 25 to 30 knot range from late morning through the afternoon
hours as boundary layer mixing deepens. The upper tropospheric jet
core will be slow to shift east, although with the loss of
insolation by sunset, surface winds should decrease substantially
back down to the 12 to 15 knot range this evening. The temperature
forecast looks to be in good shape with no airmass change
anticipated. Widespread highs in the 40s are expected (ranging from
48F at Elkhart to around 39 at Hays).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The hemispheric pattern will remain nearly unchanged for much of the
Long Term period this week going into the following weekend. The
deep tropospheric flow will gain more downslope component by
Wednesday and Thursday, which would favor warmer temperatures,
especially across far southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, a rather
substantial arctic airmass will continue across the Upper Midwest
region and Northern Plains and any little perturbation within the
flow will allow some of this air to come southwest into our region.
There is increasing signal that a decent northwest flow jet streak
will travel from Alberta southeastward to Iowa/Missouri/Kansas by
Friday. In its wake, a substantial arctic high would expand its
reach southwestward impacting southwest Kansas. The take home
message is that the upcoming weekend temperature forecast is very
low confidence. In fact, it could be MUCH colder than what the
current forecast indicates, especially if the latest 00z run of the
ECMWF comes to fruition, which is showing temperatures stuck in the
20s all day across portions of west central Kansas. It still looks
like we will be in a dry pattern, precipitation wise through the
entire Long Term period. There is way too much noise in the medium
range numerical weather prediction to even make any speculation on
precipitation at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Strong northwest winds will develop rapidly this morning as the
boundary layer air begins to mix. Potential wind gusts to close to
40 MPH will exist this afternoon. Rapid decoupling and decreasing
wind will return early this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  24  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  26  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  26  54  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hutton




000
FXUS63 KDDC 081005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
405 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A very deep trough will continue to mature well to our east...over
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Monday. The strong upper
tropospheric jet core on the backside of this trough will extend
from the Dakotas down into western Kansas with an intense 800-700mb
gradient continuing. This will support surface winds once again in
the 25 to 30 knot range from late morning through the afternoon
hours as boundary layer mixing deepens. The upper tropospheric jet
core will be slow to shift east, although with the loss of
insolation by sunset, surface winds should decrease substantially
back down to the 12 to 15 knot range this evening. The temperature
forecast looks to be in good shape with no airmass change
anticipated. Widespread highs in the 40s are expected (ranging from
48F at Elkhart to around 39 at Hays).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The hemispheric pattern will remain nearly unchanged for much of the
Long Term period this week going into the following weekend. The
deep tropospheric flow will gain more downslope component by
Wednesday and Thursday, which would favor warmer temperatures,
especially across far southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, a rather
substantial arctic airmass will continue across the Upper Midwest
region and Northern Plains and any little perturbation within the
flow will allow some of this air to come southwest into our region.
There is increasing signal that a decent northwest flow jet streak
will travel from Alberta southeastward to Iowa/Missouri/Kansas by
Friday. In its wake, a substantial arctic high would expand its
reach southwestward impacting southwest Kansas. The take home
message is that the upcoming weekend temperature forecast is very
low confidence. In fact, it could be MUCH colder than what the
current forecast indicates, especially if the latest 00z run of the
ECMWF comes to fruition, which is showing temperatures stuck in the
20s all day across portions of west central Kansas. It still looks
like we will be in a dry pattern, precipitation wise through the
entire Long Term period. There is way too much noise in the medium
range numerical weather prediction to even make any speculation on
precipitation at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  24  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  26  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  26  54  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 081005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
405 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A very deep trough will continue to mature well to our east...over
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Monday. The strong upper
tropospheric jet core on the backside of this trough will extend
from the Dakotas down into western Kansas with an intense 800-700mb
gradient continuing. This will support surface winds once again in
the 25 to 30 knot range from late morning through the afternoon
hours as boundary layer mixing deepens. The upper tropospheric jet
core will be slow to shift east, although with the loss of
insolation by sunset, surface winds should decrease substantially
back down to the 12 to 15 knot range this evening. The temperature
forecast looks to be in good shape with no airmass change
anticipated. Widespread highs in the 40s are expected (ranging from
48F at Elkhart to around 39 at Hays).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The hemispheric pattern will remain nearly unchanged for much of the
Long Term period this week going into the following weekend. The
deep tropospheric flow will gain more downslope component by
Wednesday and Thursday, which would favor warmer temperatures,
especially across far southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, a rather
substantial arctic airmass will continue across the Upper Midwest
region and Northern Plains and any little perturbation within the
flow will allow some of this air to come southwest into our region.
There is increasing signal that a decent northwest flow jet streak
will travel from Alberta southeastward to Iowa/Missouri/Kansas by
Friday. In its wake, a substantial arctic high would expand its
reach southwestward impacting southwest Kansas. The take home
message is that the upcoming weekend temperature forecast is very
low confidence. In fact, it could be MUCH colder than what the
current forecast indicates, especially if the latest 00z run of the
ECMWF comes to fruition, which is showing temperatures stuck in the
20s all day across portions of west central Kansas. It still looks
like we will be in a dry pattern, precipitation wise through the
entire Long Term period. There is way too much noise in the medium
range numerical weather prediction to even make any speculation on
precipitation at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  24  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  26  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  26  54  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 081005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
405 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A very deep trough will continue to mature well to our east...over
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Monday. The strong upper
tropospheric jet core on the backside of this trough will extend
from the Dakotas down into western Kansas with an intense 800-700mb
gradient continuing. This will support surface winds once again in
the 25 to 30 knot range from late morning through the afternoon
hours as boundary layer mixing deepens. The upper tropospheric jet
core will be slow to shift east, although with the loss of
insolation by sunset, surface winds should decrease substantially
back down to the 12 to 15 knot range this evening. The temperature
forecast looks to be in good shape with no airmass change
anticipated. Widespread highs in the 40s are expected (ranging from
48F at Elkhart to around 39 at Hays).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The hemispheric pattern will remain nearly unchanged for much of the
Long Term period this week going into the following weekend. The
deep tropospheric flow will gain more downslope component by
Wednesday and Thursday, which would favor warmer temperatures,
especially across far southwest Kansas. Meanwhile, a rather
substantial arctic airmass will continue across the Upper Midwest
region and Northern Plains and any little perturbation within the
flow will allow some of this air to come southwest into our region.
There is increasing signal that a decent northwest flow jet streak
will travel from Alberta southeastward to Iowa/Missouri/Kansas by
Friday. In its wake, a substantial arctic high would expand its
reach southwestward impacting southwest Kansas. The take home
message is that the upcoming weekend temperature forecast is very
low confidence. In fact, it could be MUCH colder than what the
current forecast indicates, especially if the latest 00z run of the
ECMWF comes to fruition, which is showing temperatures stuck in the
20s all day across portions of west central Kansas. It still looks
like we will be in a dry pattern, precipitation wise through the
entire Long Term period. There is way too much noise in the medium
range numerical weather prediction to even make any speculation on
precipitation at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  24  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  26  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  26  54  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



000
FXUS63 KTOP 081001
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level low centered just west of the
Great Lakes region, with the western edge of the deep mid-level
trough stretching across the Northern and Central Plains.  With an
embedded shortwave skimming just to the east of the area, there was
an increase in low-level moisture early this morning. Model
soundings show some weak instability present in the low-level
saturation layer, which was enough to help produce some light snow
squall showers across the area (primarily across eastern Kansas).
With the better moisture and instability focused further east in
Missouri, some very light snow accumulation will be possible across
far northeast and far eastern Kansas however many locations likely
will not see any snow accumulation.  Short-range models and model
soundings suggest that these light snow squall showers will persist
through the morning hours but gradually exit to the east, with dry
conditions by early to mid afternoon.

Models show a very strong low and mid-level jet tracking across
central and eastern Kansas today, with 45-50kt winds at 850mb. With
model soundings showing decent mixing early this morning and this
decent mixing persisting through much of the day, expect these
strong winds to mix down to the surface, resulting in another very
breezy day.  The strongest winds are actually expected this morning
with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts of 45-50mph likely before
gradually diminishing by mid to late afternoon.  As a result, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect for the entire outlook area today.  The
passing embedded shortwave along with the persistent breezy
northwesterly winds will help to advect some cooler temperatures
into the area with highs only reaching into the 30s to possibly near
40 degrees today.

Cloud cover should start to scatter out some during the overnight
hours tonight with northwesterly winds continuing to support some
cold air advection. As a result, lows tonight will likely drop into
the upper teens to low/mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The long term forecast is rather quiet in terms of sensible
weather. The only precipitation chances worthy of mentioning in
the forecast are small and focused on Sunday as several model runs
have brought a storm system across the central Plains. However,
to be fair, the model trend has been toward a less impressive
storm system over the past few runs, and the operational GFS now
steers the system north of the local area. Otherwise, will still
want to keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday, and possibly on
Wednesday as weak clipper systems will move quickly through the
northwesterly flow pattern with an outside chance to clip
northeast KS with flurry or light snow activity.

Otherwise, still looking for temperatures to modify a bit through
the week, although have trended a few degrees cooler than previous
forecasts in several periods as that northwesterly flow looks more
likely to maintain itself longer and farther south. This would
prevent the warm air and upper ridging from building east into the
local area and result in more gradual warming with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Winds will remain gusty through the night at 20 to 30 KTS. The
winds will pick up to 20 to 30 KTS with gusts to 30 to 40 KTS
during the mid morning hours and continue through the mid
afternoon hours of Monday. There may be some isolated to scattered
snow showers at KTOP and KFOE through the period. Winds should
diminish towards the late afternoon hours. May see some scattered
to at times BKN STRATOCU with MVFR ceilings at the terminals
during the afternoon hours. I do not have enough confidence to
place BKN STRATOCU with MVFR ceilings in the the TAFS.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan



000
FXUS63 KTOP 081001
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
401 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level low centered just west of the
Great Lakes region, with the western edge of the deep mid-level
trough stretching across the Northern and Central Plains.  With an
embedded shortwave skimming just to the east of the area, there was
an increase in low-level moisture early this morning. Model
soundings show some weak instability present in the low-level
saturation layer, which was enough to help produce some light snow
squall showers across the area (primarily across eastern Kansas).
With the better moisture and instability focused further east in
Missouri, some very light snow accumulation will be possible across
far northeast and far eastern Kansas however many locations likely
will not see any snow accumulation.  Short-range models and model
soundings suggest that these light snow squall showers will persist
through the morning hours but gradually exit to the east, with dry
conditions by early to mid afternoon.

Models show a very strong low and mid-level jet tracking across
central and eastern Kansas today, with 45-50kt winds at 850mb. With
model soundings showing decent mixing early this morning and this
decent mixing persisting through much of the day, expect these
strong winds to mix down to the surface, resulting in another very
breezy day.  The strongest winds are actually expected this morning
with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts of 45-50mph likely before
gradually diminishing by mid to late afternoon.  As a result, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect for the entire outlook area today.  The
passing embedded shortwave along with the persistent breezy
northwesterly winds will help to advect some cooler temperatures
into the area with highs only reaching into the 30s to possibly near
40 degrees today.

Cloud cover should start to scatter out some during the overnight
hours tonight with northwesterly winds continuing to support some
cold air advection. As a result, lows tonight will likely drop into
the upper teens to low/mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The long term forecast is rather quiet in terms of sensible
weather. The only precipitation chances worthy of mentioning in
the forecast are small and focused on Sunday as several model runs
have brought a storm system across the central Plains. However,
to be fair, the model trend has been toward a less impressive
storm system over the past few runs, and the operational GFS now
steers the system north of the local area. Otherwise, will still
want to keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday, and possibly on
Wednesday as weak clipper systems will move quickly through the
northwesterly flow pattern with an outside chance to clip
northeast KS with flurry or light snow activity.

Otherwise, still looking for temperatures to modify a bit through
the week, although have trended a few degrees cooler than previous
forecasts in several periods as that northwesterly flow looks more
likely to maintain itself longer and farther south. This would
prevent the warm air and upper ridging from building east into the
local area and result in more gradual warming with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Winds will remain gusty through the night at 20 to 30 KTS. The
winds will pick up to 20 to 30 KTS with gusts to 30 to 40 KTS
during the mid morning hours and continue through the mid
afternoon hours of Monday. There may be some isolated to scattered
snow showers at KTOP and KFOE through the period. Winds should
diminish towards the late afternoon hours. May see some scattered
to at times BKN STRATOCU with MVFR ceilings at the terminals
during the afternoon hours. I do not have enough confidence to
place BKN STRATOCU with MVFR ceilings in the the TAFS.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 080936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH
INTO CANADA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD LAS
VEGAS NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS
IN THE 850-500MB LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER IN THE
40-50KT RANGE AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS OF 50-
55KTS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 5MB OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MAV/MEN/LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALL SUPPORT GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. FOR TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND AM
ONLY EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT BEST.

BASED ON YESTERDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES AM SHOOTING FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES WHERE SNOWPACK DOESNT EXIST. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED COOLER AIR MOVING OFF THE SNOWPACK TO THE NORTH OF THESE
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE READINGS TO BE A FEW DEGREES UNDER WHATS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TUESDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5-8F WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TO MID 40S EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY) AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON WEDNESDAY MUCH WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND UNDER FULL MIXING COULD
SUPPORT LOW TO UPPER 60S. WE`LL HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK FOR
MANY WHICH WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING TO OCCUR. WILL BLEND BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS WITH PARTIAL MIXING AT 850MB TO COME UP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EAST AND 60-65 ACROSS THE FAR WEST DOWN
TO TRIBUNE AND LEOTI. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOW TO
UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHILE THE
WESTERN SECTIONS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PERSISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST AND FLATTENING AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO MORPH OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
BECOME OUT OF PHASE BY THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS A BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL KEEP THE EASTERN SECTIONS NEARLY 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SETUP TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EFFECTS
DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS. AROUND 23Z OR 00Z (TUESDAY) WINDS
WILL FALL AT OR JUST BELOW 12KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS
LOOK TO BACK A BIT TO THE WEST AND/OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS
AROUND 10KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KGLD 080936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
236 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH
INTO CANADA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD LAS
VEGAS NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS
IN THE 850-500MB LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER IN THE
40-50KT RANGE AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS OF 50-
55KTS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 5MB OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MAV/MEN/LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALL SUPPORT GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. FOR TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND AM
ONLY EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT BEST.

BASED ON YESTERDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES AM SHOOTING FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES WHERE SNOWPACK DOESNT EXIST. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED COOLER AIR MOVING OFF THE SNOWPACK TO THE NORTH OF THESE
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE READINGS TO BE A FEW DEGREES UNDER WHATS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TUESDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5-8F WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TO MID 40S EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY) AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON WEDNESDAY MUCH WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND UNDER FULL MIXING COULD
SUPPORT LOW TO UPPER 60S. WE`LL HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK FOR
MANY WHICH WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING TO OCCUR. WILL BLEND BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS WITH PARTIAL MIXING AT 850MB TO COME UP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EAST AND 60-65 ACROSS THE FAR WEST DOWN
TO TRIBUNE AND LEOTI. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOW TO
UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHILE THE
WESTERN SECTIONS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PERSISTS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST AND FLATTENING AS THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO MORPH OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND GFS START TO
BECOME OUT OF PHASE BY THE WEEKEND...BUT IT APPEARS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
OVER THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS A BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION AS A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL KEEP THE EASTERN SECTIONS NEARLY 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THIS SETUP TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EFFECTS
DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS. AROUND 23Z OR 00Z (TUESDAY) WINDS
WILL FALL AT OR JUST BELOW 12KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS
LOOK TO BACK A BIT TO THE WEST AND/OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS
AROUND 10KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KICT 080910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH LOTS OF COLD ADVECTION ACROSS MOST
OF THE PLAINS ON THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE SW OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
COMBINING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RESULT IN STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT
POSSIBLY STRONGER. FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING TO
8000H WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SE KS...WHERE GRADIENT AND MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAVE ALREADY HOISTED
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THINK THIS
LOOKS FINE. THINK THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD
TODAY...WITH NUMEROUS PLACES REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30
MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

EXPECTING COOLER MAX TEMPS TODAY..GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT
SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL TEMPER THE COOL DOWN.
THE DRY AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION IN THE FIRE
SECTION BELOW.

NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AND GENERALLY
THROUGH FRI. TODAYS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT FURTHER EAST
OF THE AREA FOR TUE AND WED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINDS THAT ARE
LESS GUSTY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS. EXPECT BETTER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR WED AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH IN THE NW
FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE WESTERLY WINDS WITH MAX TEMPS
CLIMBING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER 50S.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE MODERATING TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THU AND FRI AS NW FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES FOR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE HELPING TO PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS FOR SAT. MOST OF THE COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SHUNTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PLAINS...BUT ENOUGH OF THE COOLER AIR WILL OOZE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL IN THE LOWER 40S.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE NW FLOW PATTERN BREAKING
DOWN SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DROPS SE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS...SO WOULD PREFER TO REMOVE POPS
FOR NOW AND SEE IF MOISTURE QUALITY IMPROVES LATER IN THE WEEK.
QUICK HITTING NATURE WILL NOT LEAD TO MUCH OF A PRECIP CHANCE EVEN
IF MOISTURE DOES IMPROVE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TURBULENT
MIXING WILL PROMOTE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TAF CYCLE. COULD SEE WINDS RELAX A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH. CLOUDS WILL
BISECT THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH KCNU HAVING THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING LOW END VFR CEILINGS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AS KCNU LOOKS TO BE ON
THE VERY EDGE OF ANY DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME VALUES MAINLY FOR AREAS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. SOME CONCERN THAT COOLER TEMPS...WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. BUT THINK THAT CURED FUELS WILL
OVERCOME THIS AND LEAD TO ANY FIRE GETTING OUT OF CONTROL GIVEN
THE STRONG NW WINDS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  25  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          40  24  42  24 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        40  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         38  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      38  24  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          39  23  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  24  41  22 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            37  23  39  21 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    40  25  43  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ050-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 080840
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST NORTH
INTO CANADA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD LAS
VEGAS NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS
IN THE 850-500MB LAYER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST NAM/GFS 850MB WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER IN THE
40-50KT RANGE AND LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM WOULD SUPPORT GUSTS OF 50-
55KTS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS ONLY ABOUT 5MB OF
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MAV/MEN/LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALL SUPPORT GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 35
MPH RANGE. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK THAT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FULL MIXING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND PREVENT STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. FOR TUESDAY WINDS ALOFT DECREASE A BIT AND AM
ONLY EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT BEST.

BASED ON YESTERDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES AM SHOOTING FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES WHERE SNOWPACK DOESNT EXIST. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED COOLER AIR MOVING OFF THE SNOWPACK TO THE NORTH OF THESE
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE READINGS TO BE A FEW DEGREES UNDER WHATS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TUESDAYS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 5-8F WHICH WOULD SUPPORT LOW
TO MID 40S EAST (MCCOOK TO HILL CITY) AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES. LOW
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

ON WEDNESDAY MUCH WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND UNDER FULL MIXING COULD
SUPPORT LOW TO UPPER 60S. WE`LL HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOWPACK FOR
MANY WHICH WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING TO OCCUR. WILL BLEND BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS WITH PARTIAL MIXING AT 850MB TO COME UP WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EAST AND 60-65 ACROSS THE FAR WEST DOWN
TO TRIBUNE AND LEOTI. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH LOW TO
UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH TERMINALS WILL
EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS. AROUND 23Z OR 00Z (TUESDAY) WINDS
WILL FALL AT OR JUST BELOW 12KTS. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WINDS
LOOK TO BACK A BIT TO THE WEST AND/OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS
AROUND 10KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KDDC 080731
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
131 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Updated Short Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

A very deep trough will continue to mature well to our east...over
the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Monday. The strong upper
tropospheric jet core on the backside of this trough will extend
from the Dakotas down into western Kansas with an intense 800-700mb
gradient continuing. This will support surface winds once again in
the 25 to 30 knot range from late morning through the afternoon
hours as boundary layer mixing deepens. The upper tropospheric jet
core will be slow to shift east, although with the loss of
insolation by sunset, surface winds should decrease substantially
back down to the 12 to 15 knot range this evening. The temperature
forecast looks to be in good shape with no airmass change
anticipated. Widespread highs in the 40s are expected (ranging from
48F at Elkhart to around 39 at Hays).

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  25  54  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  24  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  48  30  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  26  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  25  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  26  54  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KTOP 080548
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Main upper low continues to sink southeast out of Minnesota with
another wave diving southeast over eastern South Dakota per recent
water vapor imagery. Mid cloud ahead of this feature was through
northern Nebraska with lower ceilings entering this portion of the
state. Pressures were rising quickly behind the second wave with
temps mainly in the 30s and gusts above 40kt common. Winds haven`t
quite reached Advisory levels so far but mixing being maximized at
this time and could yet see at both sustained and gusts values get
into this range over the new few hours.

Cold air advection ramps up tonight as the wave passes but remains
rather dry aloft. Upstream stratus still moves in however with
strong pressure gradient keeping winds up and at least some chance
for mixing into it through the night. Deepest mixing potential still
looking to be during the daylight hours of Monday with 850mb winds
still near 60 kts as boundary layer winds become more aligned with
the winds at this level. Have higher confidence in a widespread
Advisory then, especially for gusts. Could see winds in northeastern
locations near Advisory speeds just before dawn but have too little
confidence in this occurring during this atypical time. Models remain
consistent with minor surface-based CAPE developing via the mixing
and bring various ideas of shower development in the overnight to
midday hours before drying occurs near the top of the mixed layer.
Could see some very light accumulations result, but it continues to
present as more of a rapidly dropping visibility concern given
expected wind speeds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The pattern becomes dominated by a long wave trough over the
eastern half of the country for next week. This is expected to
keep a northwest flow aloft and allow high pressure to
occasionally build south through the plains with the bulk of the
cold air remaining over the upper Midwest. Models show some weak
signs for trace precip events Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure builds through the middle MO river valley. While there is
no significant wave noted in the model progs, there are some bands
of mid level frontogenesis with reasonable saturation in those
levels. However vertical motion does not appear to be very strong
as a result of the frontogenesis. So have kept a dry forecast
going and will watch trends from later model runs. The only other
opportunity for precip looks to be on Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF
have not had the best continuity in the extended periods, and now
they only show an open wave within the northwest flow affecting
the forecast area for the later half of next weekend. In fact the
GFS and ECMWF have trended warmer such that any precip would be
all rain.

In the expected pattern of northwest flow and occasional surface
ridging, a persistent gradient of cool temps over northeast KS to
relatively warmer temps in central KS is anticipated. Models tend
to keep the really cold air to the northeast of the forecast area
and don`t really show any major warm ups for the next week.
Because of this have stayed fairly close to the model consensus
as the forecast area looks to be within the stronger gradient for
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Winds will remain gusty through the night at 20 to 30 KTS. The
winds will pick up to 20 to 30 KTS with gusts to 30 to 40 KTS
during the mid morning hours and continue through the mid
afternoon hours of Monday. There may be some isolated to scattered
snow showers at KTOP and KFOE through the period. Winds should
diminish towards the late afternoon hours. May see some scattered
to at times BKN STRATOCU with MVFR ceilings at the terminals
during the afternoon hours. I do not have enough confidence to
place BKN STRATOCU with MVFR ceilings in the the TAFS.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 080548
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Main upper low continues to sink southeast out of Minnesota with
another wave diving southeast over eastern South Dakota per recent
water vapor imagery. Mid cloud ahead of this feature was through
northern Nebraska with lower ceilings entering this portion of the
state. Pressures were rising quickly behind the second wave with
temps mainly in the 30s and gusts above 40kt common. Winds haven`t
quite reached Advisory levels so far but mixing being maximized at
this time and could yet see at both sustained and gusts values get
into this range over the new few hours.

Cold air advection ramps up tonight as the wave passes but remains
rather dry aloft. Upstream stratus still moves in however with
strong pressure gradient keeping winds up and at least some chance
for mixing into it through the night. Deepest mixing potential still
looking to be during the daylight hours of Monday with 850mb winds
still near 60 kts as boundary layer winds become more aligned with
the winds at this level. Have higher confidence in a widespread
Advisory then, especially for gusts. Could see winds in northeastern
locations near Advisory speeds just before dawn but have too little
confidence in this occurring during this atypical time. Models remain
consistent with minor surface-based CAPE developing via the mixing
and bring various ideas of shower development in the overnight to
midday hours before drying occurs near the top of the mixed layer.
Could see some very light accumulations result, but it continues to
present as more of a rapidly dropping visibility concern given
expected wind speeds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The pattern becomes dominated by a long wave trough over the
eastern half of the country for next week. This is expected to
keep a northwest flow aloft and allow high pressure to
occasionally build south through the plains with the bulk of the
cold air remaining over the upper Midwest. Models show some weak
signs for trace precip events Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure builds through the middle MO river valley. While there is
no significant wave noted in the model progs, there are some bands
of mid level frontogenesis with reasonable saturation in those
levels. However vertical motion does not appear to be very strong
as a result of the frontogenesis. So have kept a dry forecast
going and will watch trends from later model runs. The only other
opportunity for precip looks to be on Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF
have not had the best continuity in the extended periods, and now
they only show an open wave within the northwest flow affecting
the forecast area for the later half of next weekend. In fact the
GFS and ECMWF have trended warmer such that any precip would be
all rain.

In the expected pattern of northwest flow and occasional surface
ridging, a persistent gradient of cool temps over northeast KS to
relatively warmer temps in central KS is anticipated. Models tend
to keep the really cold air to the northeast of the forecast area
and don`t really show any major warm ups for the next week.
Because of this have stayed fairly close to the model consensus
as the forecast area looks to be within the stronger gradient for
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Winds will remain gusty through the night at 20 to 30 KTS. The
winds will pick up to 20 to 30 KTS with gusts to 30 to 40 KTS
during the mid morning hours and continue through the mid
afternoon hours of Monday. There may be some isolated to scattered
snow showers at KTOP and KFOE through the period. Winds should
diminish towards the late afternoon hours. May see some scattered
to at times BKN STRATOCU with MVFR ceilings at the terminals
during the afternoon hours. I do not have enough confidence to
place BKN STRATOCU with MVFR ceilings in the the TAFS.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Gargan



000
FXUS63 KDDC 080527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 080527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 080527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 080527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KDDC 080527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Very strong northwest winds will occur again during the late
morning through afternoon hours Monday. Expect sustained winds in
the 25 to 30 knot range with gusts in the 35 to 40 knot range,
especially at DDC and HYS terminals. The continued downslope
momentum from the northwest winds will prevent development of
ceiling and visibility restriction, so VFR is forecast through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KGLD 080524
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
REMAINING HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ZONES...AS WELL AS OUR SOUTHWESTERN KS ZONES. THE REST
OF THE CWA IS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. OVERALL TREND IS
FOR ALL AREAS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES
WILL SEE IT LAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF EXITING CLOUDS. REST
OF FORECAST WELL ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL DURING THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING SPEEDS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S
MONDAY. SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 COULD BE REALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
W/ ONLY SCT MID/HIGHS CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR WINDS...KGLD WILL SEE NW WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THRU 16Z
MONDAY...THEN NORTH 15-25KTS. BY 00Z TUESDAY...NW AGAIN BUT
DECREASING TO AROUND 10KTS. KMCK WILL SEE NW WINDS 15-25KTS THRU
00Z TUESDAY...THEN WNW AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 080524
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
REMAINING HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ZONES...AS WELL AS OUR SOUTHWESTERN KS ZONES. THE REST
OF THE CWA IS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. OVERALL TREND IS
FOR ALL AREAS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES
WILL SEE IT LAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF EXITING CLOUDS. REST
OF FORECAST WELL ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL DURING THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING SPEEDS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S
MONDAY. SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 COULD BE REALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
W/ ONLY SCT MID/HIGHS CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR WINDS...KGLD WILL SEE NW WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THRU 16Z
MONDAY...THEN NORTH 15-25KTS. BY 00Z TUESDAY...NW AGAIN BUT
DECREASING TO AROUND 10KTS. KMCK WILL SEE NW WINDS 15-25KTS THRU
00Z TUESDAY...THEN WNW AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 080524
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1024 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
REMAINING HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ZONES...AS WELL AS OUR SOUTHWESTERN KS ZONES. THE REST
OF THE CWA IS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. OVERALL TREND IS
FOR ALL AREAS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES
WILL SEE IT LAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF EXITING CLOUDS. REST
OF FORECAST WELL ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL DURING THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING SPEEDS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S
MONDAY. SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 COULD BE REALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
W/ ONLY SCT MID/HIGHS CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR WINDS...KGLD WILL SEE NW WINDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE THRU 16Z
MONDAY...THEN NORTH 15-25KTS. BY 00Z TUESDAY...NW AGAIN BUT
DECREASING TO AROUND 10KTS. KMCK WILL SEE NW WINDS 15-25KTS THRU
00Z TUESDAY...THEN WNW AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KICT 080521
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TURBULENT
MIXING WILL PROMOTE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TAF CYCLE. COULD SEE WINDS RELAX A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH. CLOUDS WILL
BISECT THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH KCNU HAVING THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING LOW END VFR CEILINGS. HAVE CONTINUED
TO LEAVE OUT MENTIONS OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NOW AS KCNU LOOKS TO BE ON
THE VERY EDGE OF ANY DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  39  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      26  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    31  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 080305
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
805 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
REMAINING HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO ZONES...AS WELL AS OUR SOUTHWESTERN KS ZONES. THE REST
OF THE CWA IS CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. OVERALL TREND IS
FOR ALL AREAS TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES
WILL SEE IT LAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF EXITING CLOUDS. REST
OF FORECAST WELL ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL DURING THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING SPEEDS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S
MONDAY. SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 COULD BE REALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE AREA. WINDS NW 20-30KTS THRU 06Z MONDAY...THEN
DROPPING DOWN TO 15-25KTS. WIND SHEAR FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z
MONDAY...NNW AROUND 50KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 080018
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level stratoform clouds will be moving though the
area, having no impact on terminals. A persistent pressure
gradient however will maintain gusty northwest winds through the
overnight, gaining momentum into the daytime hours on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&t winds through the
overnight, gaining momentum into the daytime hours on Monday.


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KDDC 080018
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A band of mid level stratoform clouds will be moving though the
area, having no impact on terminals. A persistent pressure
gradient however will maintain gusty northwest winds through the
overnight, gaining momentum into the daytime hours on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&t winds through the
overnight, gaining momentum into the daytime hours on Monday.


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KICT 072328
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN REINFORCED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS WE LOSE MIXING
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER DUE TO A TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER...HAVE
LEFT MENTIONS OF GUSTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED WITH A
SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-
LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
AT KCNU AND REMAIN LOW END VFR. CONTEMPLATED INCLUDING MENTIONS OF VCSH
AT KCNU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEPTH...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTIONS OUT AT THIS TIME.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  39  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      26  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    31  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 072328
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN REINFORCED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS WE LOSE MIXING
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER DUE TO A TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER...HAVE
LEFT MENTIONS OF GUSTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED WITH A
SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-
LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
AT KCNU AND REMAIN LOW END VFR. CONTEMPLATED INCLUDING MENTIONS OF VCSH
AT KCNU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEPTH...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTIONS OUT AT THIS TIME.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  39  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      26  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    31  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 072328
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN REINFORCED AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS WE LOSE MIXING
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER DUE TO A TURBULENT BOUNDARY LAYER...HAVE
LEFT MENTIONS OF GUSTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED WITH A
SHALLOW NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-
LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE
AT KCNU AND REMAIN LOW END VFR. CONTEMPLATED INCLUDING MENTIONS OF VCSH
AT KCNU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR AND THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEPTH...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE MENTIONS OUT AT THIS TIME.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         27  39  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      26  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    31  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 072327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL DURING THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING SPEEDS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S
MONDAY. SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 COULD BE REALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE AREA. WINDS NW 20-30KTS THRU 06Z MONDAY...THEN
DROPPING DOWN TO 15-25KTS. WIND SHEAR FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z
MONDAY...NNW AROUND 50KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 072327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL DURING THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING SPEEDS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S
MONDAY. SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 COULD BE REALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE AREA. WINDS NW 20-30KTS THRU 06Z MONDAY...THEN
DROPPING DOWN TO 15-25KTS. WIND SHEAR FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z
MONDAY...NNW AROUND 50KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 072326
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Main upper low continues to sink southeast out of Minnesota with
another wave diving southeast over eastern South Dakota per recent
water vapor imagery. Mid cloud ahead of this feature was through
northern Nebraska with lower ceilings entering this portion of the
state. Pressures were rising quickly behind the second wave with
temps mainly in the 30s and gusts above 40kt common. Winds haven`t
quite reached Advisory levels so far but mixing being maximized at
this time and could yet see at both sustained and gusts values get
into this range over the new few hours.

Cold air advection ramps up tonight as the wave passes but remains
rather dry aloft. Upstream stratus still moves in however with
strong pressure gradient keeping winds up and at least some chance
for mixing into it through the night. Deepest mixing potential still
looking to be during the daylight hours of Monday with 850mb winds
still near 60 kts as boundary layer winds become more aligned with
the winds at this level. Have higher confidence in a widespread
Advisory then, especially for gusts. Could see winds in northeastern
locations near Advisory speeds just before dawn but have too little
confidence in this occurring during this atypical time. Models remain
consistent with minor surface-based CAPE developing via the mixing
and bring various ideas of shower development in the overnight to
midday hours before drying occurs near the top of the mixed layer.
Could see some very light accumulations result, but it continues to
present as more of a rapidly dropping visibility concern given
expected wind speeds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The pattern becomes dominated by a long wave trough over the
eastern half of the country for next week. This is expected to
keep a northwest flow aloft and allow high pressure to
occasionally build south through the plains with the bulk of the
cold air remaining over the upper Midwest. Models show some weak
signs for trace precip events Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure builds through the middle MO river valley. While there is
no significant wave noted in the model progs, there are some bands
of mid level frontogenesis with reasonable saturation in those
levels. However vertical motion does not appear to be very strong
as a result of the frontogenesis. So have kept a dry forecast
going and will watch trends from later model runs. The only other
opportunity for precip looks to be on Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF
have not had the best continuity in the extended periods, and now
they only show an open wave within the northwest flow affecting
the forecast area for the later half of next weekend. In fact the
GFS and ECMWF have trended warmer such that any precip would be
all rain.

In the expected pattern of northwest flow and occasional surface
ridging, a persistent gradient of cool temps over northeast KS to
relatively warmer temps in central KS is anticipated. Models tend
to keep the really cold air to the northeast of the forecast area
and don`t really show any major warm ups for the next week.
Because of this have stayed fairly close to the model consensus
as the forecast area looks to be within the stronger gradient for
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the entire period.  There is a
slight chance for snow showers early tomorrow morning, mainly over
TOP/FOE.  If these occur, brief MVFR ceilings may be seen over
terminals, but right now chances remain too low to be put into this
TAF issuance.  The main focus of this TAF will be the gusty winds.
NW winds will stay over 12kts overnight with occasional gusts,
before ramping up tomorrow afternoon where gusts up to 40kts are
possible.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-020-021-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller




000
FXUS63 KTOP 072326
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Main upper low continues to sink southeast out of Minnesota with
another wave diving southeast over eastern South Dakota per recent
water vapor imagery. Mid cloud ahead of this feature was through
northern Nebraska with lower ceilings entering this portion of the
state. Pressures were rising quickly behind the second wave with
temps mainly in the 30s and gusts above 40kt common. Winds haven`t
quite reached Advisory levels so far but mixing being maximized at
this time and could yet see at both sustained and gusts values get
into this range over the new few hours.

Cold air advection ramps up tonight as the wave passes but remains
rather dry aloft. Upstream stratus still moves in however with
strong pressure gradient keeping winds up and at least some chance
for mixing into it through the night. Deepest mixing potential still
looking to be during the daylight hours of Monday with 850mb winds
still near 60 kts as boundary layer winds become more aligned with
the winds at this level. Have higher confidence in a widespread
Advisory then, especially for gusts. Could see winds in northeastern
locations near Advisory speeds just before dawn but have too little
confidence in this occurring during this atypical time. Models remain
consistent with minor surface-based CAPE developing via the mixing
and bring various ideas of shower development in the overnight to
midday hours before drying occurs near the top of the mixed layer.
Could see some very light accumulations result, but it continues to
present as more of a rapidly dropping visibility concern given
expected wind speeds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The pattern becomes dominated by a long wave trough over the
eastern half of the country for next week. This is expected to
keep a northwest flow aloft and allow high pressure to
occasionally build south through the plains with the bulk of the
cold air remaining over the upper Midwest. Models show some weak
signs for trace precip events Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure builds through the middle MO river valley. While there is
no significant wave noted in the model progs, there are some bands
of mid level frontogenesis with reasonable saturation in those
levels. However vertical motion does not appear to be very strong
as a result of the frontogenesis. So have kept a dry forecast
going and will watch trends from later model runs. The only other
opportunity for precip looks to be on Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF
have not had the best continuity in the extended periods, and now
they only show an open wave within the northwest flow affecting
the forecast area for the later half of next weekend. In fact the
GFS and ECMWF have trended warmer such that any precip would be
all rain.

In the expected pattern of northwest flow and occasional surface
ridging, a persistent gradient of cool temps over northeast KS to
relatively warmer temps in central KS is anticipated. Models tend
to keep the really cold air to the northeast of the forecast area
and don`t really show any major warm ups for the next week.
Because of this have stayed fairly close to the model consensus
as the forecast area looks to be within the stronger gradient for
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the entire period.  There is a
slight chance for snow showers early tomorrow morning, mainly over
TOP/FOE.  If these occur, brief MVFR ceilings may be seen over
terminals, but right now chances remain too low to be put into this
TAF issuance.  The main focus of this TAF will be the gusty winds.
NW winds will stay over 12kts overnight with occasional gusts,
before ramping up tomorrow afternoon where gusts up to 40kts are
possible.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-020-021-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller



000
FXUS63 KTOP 072326
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
526 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Main upper low continues to sink southeast out of Minnesota with
another wave diving southeast over eastern South Dakota per recent
water vapor imagery. Mid cloud ahead of this feature was through
northern Nebraska with lower ceilings entering this portion of the
state. Pressures were rising quickly behind the second wave with
temps mainly in the 30s and gusts above 40kt common. Winds haven`t
quite reached Advisory levels so far but mixing being maximized at
this time and could yet see at both sustained and gusts values get
into this range over the new few hours.

Cold air advection ramps up tonight as the wave passes but remains
rather dry aloft. Upstream stratus still moves in however with
strong pressure gradient keeping winds up and at least some chance
for mixing into it through the night. Deepest mixing potential still
looking to be during the daylight hours of Monday with 850mb winds
still near 60 kts as boundary layer winds become more aligned with
the winds at this level. Have higher confidence in a widespread
Advisory then, especially for gusts. Could see winds in northeastern
locations near Advisory speeds just before dawn but have too little
confidence in this occurring during this atypical time. Models remain
consistent with minor surface-based CAPE developing via the mixing
and bring various ideas of shower development in the overnight to
midday hours before drying occurs near the top of the mixed layer.
Could see some very light accumulations result, but it continues to
present as more of a rapidly dropping visibility concern given
expected wind speeds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The pattern becomes dominated by a long wave trough over the
eastern half of the country for next week. This is expected to
keep a northwest flow aloft and allow high pressure to
occasionally build south through the plains with the bulk of the
cold air remaining over the upper Midwest. Models show some weak
signs for trace precip events Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure builds through the middle MO river valley. While there is
no significant wave noted in the model progs, there are some bands
of mid level frontogenesis with reasonable saturation in those
levels. However vertical motion does not appear to be very strong
as a result of the frontogenesis. So have kept a dry forecast
going and will watch trends from later model runs. The only other
opportunity for precip looks to be on Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF
have not had the best continuity in the extended periods, and now
they only show an open wave within the northwest flow affecting
the forecast area for the later half of next weekend. In fact the
GFS and ECMWF have trended warmer such that any precip would be
all rain.

In the expected pattern of northwest flow and occasional surface
ridging, a persistent gradient of cool temps over northeast KS to
relatively warmer temps in central KS is anticipated. Models tend
to keep the really cold air to the northeast of the forecast area
and don`t really show any major warm ups for the next week.
Because of this have stayed fairly close to the model consensus
as the forecast area looks to be within the stronger gradient for
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the entire period.  There is a
slight chance for snow showers early tomorrow morning, mainly over
TOP/FOE.  If these occur, brief MVFR ceilings may be seen over
terminals, but right now chances remain too low to be put into this
TAF issuance.  The main focus of this TAF will be the gusty winds.
NW winds will stay over 12kts overnight with occasional gusts,
before ramping up tomorrow afternoon where gusts up to 40kts are
possible.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-020-021-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller




000
FXUS63 KGLD 072127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL DURING THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING SPEEDS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S
MONDAY. SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 COULD BE REALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 072111
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Main upper low continues to sink southeast out of Minnesota with
another wave diving southeast over eastern South Dakota per recent
water vapor imagery. Mid cloud ahead of this feature was through
northern Nebraska with lower ceilings entering this portion of the
state. Pressures were rising quickly behind the second wave with
temps mainly in the 30s and gusts above 40kt common. Winds haven`t
quite reached Advisory levels so far but mixing being maximized at
this time and could yet see at both sustained and gusts values get
into this range over the new few hours.

Cold air advection ramps up tonight as the wave passes but remains
rather dry aloft. Upstream stratus still moves in however with
strong pressure gradient keeping winds up and at least some chance
for mixing into it through the night. Deepest mixing potential still
looking to be during the daylight hours of Monday with 850mb winds
still near 60 kts as boundary layer winds become more aligned with
the winds at this level. Have higher confidence in a widespread
Advisory then, especially for gusts. Could see winds in northeastern
locations near Advisory speeds just before dawn but have too little
confidence in this occurring during this atypical time. Models remain
consistent with minor surface-based CAPE developing via the mixing
and bring various ideas of shower development in the overnight to
midday hours before drying occurs near the top of the mixed layer.
Could see some very light accumulations result, but it continues to
present as more of a rapidly dropping visibility concern given
expected wind speeds.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The pattern becomes dominated by a long wave trough over the
eastern half of the country for next week. This is expected to
keep a northwest flow aloft and allow high pressure to
occasionally build south through the plains with the bulk of the
cold air remaining over the upper Midwest. Models show some weak
signs for trace precip events Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure builds through the middle MO river valley. While there is
no significant wave noted in the model progs, there are some bands
of mid level frontogenesis with reasonable saturation in those
levels. However vertical motion does not appear to be very strong
as a result of the frontogenesis. So have kept a dry forecast
going and will watch trends from later model runs. The only other
opportunity for precip looks to be on Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF
have not had the best continuity in the extended periods, and now
they only show an open wave within the northwest flow affecting
the forecast area for the later half of next weekend. In fact the
GFS and ECMWF have trended warmer such that any precip would be
all rain.

In the expected pattern of northwest flow and occasional surface
ridging, a persistent gradient of cool temps over northeast KS to
relatively warmer temps in central KS is anticipated. Models tend
to keep the really cold air to the northeast of the forecast area
and don`t really show any major warm ups for the next week.
Because of this have stayed fairly close to the model consensus
as the forecast area looks to be within the stronger gradient for
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions should dominate particularly in the first half of
the forecast. Wind speeds are the main challenge with deep mixing
possibly leading to brief strong wind gusts around 20Z and again
late in the forecast. Could have more stronger gusts between 0Z
and 15Z but this appear less common. At least small chances for
brief visibility and ceiling restrictions remain in this same
window with snow shower potential but too little for a mention
yet.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-020-021-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KDDC 072056
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
256 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KDDC 072056
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
256 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Short term and Long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

An upper level disturbance that was located across the Northern
Plains at 12z Sunday will quickly move southeast across the
Central Plains through early this evening. As this upper level
system moves into the mid Mississippi valley overnight an upper
level ridge axis will begin to build slowly east into the western
United States. Subsidence developing in the wake of the upper
level trough overnight will yield clear/clearing skies, however
based on the expected winds overnight and the temperatures
forecast in the mixed layer near the surface will continue to
favor lows mainly in the mid 20s. Lighter wind speeds are expected
near the Colorado border overnight so lows will be cooler across
far western Kansas, especially west/northwest of Garden City.

Very Windy conditions will return to western Kansas during the
day on Monday based on the expected mean winds in the mixed layer
between 18z Monday and 00z Tuesday. At this time based on the NAM
and GFS the stronger winds will be located east of a Garden City
to Liberal Line. In this area sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph will
be possible at times, especially if the GFS verifies. As for
temperatures...based on the mixing depth late day along with the
temperatures at the level at 00z Tuesday the highs are expected to
vary from the mid to upper 30s in north central Kansas to the
upper 40s to near 50 in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A warming trend can then be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday
given the improving downslope flow forecast across far western
Kansas. Across southwest Kansas temperatures by Wednesday
afternoon should warm into the upper 60s to near 70 based on the
warming trend from the GFS in the 900mb to 850mb level.
Temperatures will also warm in north central and south central
Kansas but not as much with highs expected range from 50 to 55.

A northwest flow will persist across the Central Plains and
Northern Plains late week as an upper level ridge axis slowly
moves east across the western United States. A subtle upper level
disturbance embedded in this persistent northwesterly flow will
cross the central plains on Thursday and this will bring a weak
surface boundary back across western Kansas late week. Behind this
front some cooler air will return, but at this time it appears
what cooling that does occur on Thursday will be minor and mainly
confined to north central Kansas. Another front will move across
western Kansas over the weekend period as another upper level
disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  43  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  44  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  48  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  25  48  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  38  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  45  26  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KICT 072039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      27  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        27  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   28  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  38  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          27  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     30  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         29  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            29  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 072039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      27  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        27  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   28  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  38  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          27  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     30  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         29  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            29  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 072039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      27  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        27  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   28  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  38  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          27  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     30  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         29  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            29  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 071819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES FROM FORECAST HIGHS.
LAYER OF MID CLOUDS COMING DOWN FROM CENTRAL KS SHOULD SLOW THE
HEATING DOWN A BIT.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  43  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  43  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  40  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  35  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  38  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  40  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  42  26  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  24  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 071819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES FROM FORECAST HIGHS.
LAYER OF MID CLOUDS COMING DOWN FROM CENTRAL KS SHOULD SLOW THE
HEATING DOWN A BIT.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  43  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  43  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  40  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  35  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  38  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  40  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  42  26  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  24  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 071819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES FROM FORECAST HIGHS.
LAYER OF MID CLOUDS COMING DOWN FROM CENTRAL KS SHOULD SLOW THE
HEATING DOWN A BIT.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  43  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  43  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  40  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  35  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  38  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  40  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  42  26  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  24  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 071819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES FROM FORECAST HIGHS.
LAYER OF MID CLOUDS COMING DOWN FROM CENTRAL KS SHOULD SLOW THE
HEATING DOWN A BIT.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  43  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  43  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  40  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  35  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  38  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  40  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  42  26  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  24  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 071819
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT TEMPS ALREADY AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES FROM FORECAST HIGHS.
LAYER OF MID CLOUDS COMING DOWN FROM CENTRAL KS SHOULD SLOW THE
HEATING DOWN A BIT.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  43  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      28  43  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          28  40  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        28  41  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   29  44  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  35  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  38  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          28  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       28  40  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     31  42  26  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         30  40  24  44 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            30  38  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  24  45 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 071802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 071802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 071802
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 071746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Early this morning water vapor imagery showed a mid-level shortwave
trough over the far Northern Plains, with models showing this trough
quickly deepening into the central U.S. this afternoon through this
evening. As this trough dives into the area, it will help to push
the area of low pressure southward, increasing the pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This pressure gradient combined with 40-
60kt 850mb winds will result in some very breezy conditions today.
Model soundings show deep mixing likely across portions of north
central and central Kansas, so some of these strong winds may reach
the surface with gusts of 40-45mph likely for a few hours this
afternoon. As a result, have issued a Wind Advisory for this
afternoon across north central and central Kansas.  Expect the mid-
level clouds to briefly scatter out late this morning into this
afternoon before developing once again this evening. Despite the
breezy northwesterly winds and scattered mid-level clouds, expect
temperatures to warm into the low 50s for much of the outlook area.
The only exception is in far north central Kansas where these
northwest winds may usher some cooler air into the area off of the
snow pack still present in Nebraska, with highs likely staying in
the mid/upper 40s.

In addition to the gusty northwesterly winds, expect RHs to drop
into the upper 20 to low 30 percent range across much of east
central Kansas. These conditions will result in very high fire
danger concerns for this afternoon, primarily in the Flint Hills
region.

Overnight another shortwave embedded within the western edge of the
mid-level trough will skim southward, barely clipping far northeast
Kansas. Expect increasing low-level moisture and low clouds with
this approaching wave, however there is not much available lift
until early Monday morning. With model soundings showing saturation
extending into the dendritic zone, could see some light snow showers
clip far northeast Kansas with some scattered flurries elsewhere.
Any snow that develops before sunrise Monday morning should be light
at less than one-half inch. The continued breezy northwest winds
overnight will push low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Northwest winds will be ongoing on Monday morning with a sharp
increase expected by sunrise or shortly thereafter as boundary
layer mixing rapidly increases and a strong low level jet is mixed
to the surface. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph seem possible from
around 8 AM through 5 PM...with the strongest winds likely east of
a Marysville to Burlington line. In this area, a gust greater than
50 mph is within the realm of possibility. Another interesting
aspect of Monday will be the potential for snow showers and
flurries, possibly with enough intensity to sharply reduce
visibility for brief periods of time when coupled with the strong
winds. These will develop as convective shallow cloud snow showers
within the boundary layer as the strong low level cold advection
will promote CAPE of 30 to 75 J/kg within a few thousand feet of
the surface. It appears that far eastern KS will have the best
chance for these more widespread snow showers as the saturated
layer will be a bit deeper and with colder temperatures aloft,
more likely to extend into the dendritic growth temperature zone.

Snow showers should exit the area and winds will decrease by late
Monday and Monday night. Beyond that point, expect a gradual
warming trend toward the upper 40s by late week, although we will
remain under northwest flow with periodic pulses of colder air
skirting by to the northeast. Wednesday and Friday both feature
weak embedded short wave troughs diving across the Plains. Ascent
isn`t particularly strong and the airmass rather dry locally so
the chance of precip with these systems is low in the local area,
but will want to monitor for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions should dominate particularly in the first half of
the forecast. Wind speeds are the main challenge with deep mixing
possibly leading to brief strong wind gusts around 20Z and again
late in the forecast. Could have more stronger gusts between 0Z
and 15Z but this appear less common. At least small chances for
brief visibility and ceiling restrictions remain in this same
window with snow shower potential but too little for a mention
yet.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-020-021-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 071746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Early this morning water vapor imagery showed a mid-level shortwave
trough over the far Northern Plains, with models showing this trough
quickly deepening into the central U.S. this afternoon through this
evening. As this trough dives into the area, it will help to push
the area of low pressure southward, increasing the pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This pressure gradient combined with 40-
60kt 850mb winds will result in some very breezy conditions today.
Model soundings show deep mixing likely across portions of north
central and central Kansas, so some of these strong winds may reach
the surface with gusts of 40-45mph likely for a few hours this
afternoon. As a result, have issued a Wind Advisory for this
afternoon across north central and central Kansas.  Expect the mid-
level clouds to briefly scatter out late this morning into this
afternoon before developing once again this evening. Despite the
breezy northwesterly winds and scattered mid-level clouds, expect
temperatures to warm into the low 50s for much of the outlook area.
The only exception is in far north central Kansas where these
northwest winds may usher some cooler air into the area off of the
snow pack still present in Nebraska, with highs likely staying in
the mid/upper 40s.

In addition to the gusty northwesterly winds, expect RHs to drop
into the upper 20 to low 30 percent range across much of east
central Kansas. These conditions will result in very high fire
danger concerns for this afternoon, primarily in the Flint Hills
region.

Overnight another shortwave embedded within the western edge of the
mid-level trough will skim southward, barely clipping far northeast
Kansas. Expect increasing low-level moisture and low clouds with
this approaching wave, however there is not much available lift
until early Monday morning. With model soundings showing saturation
extending into the dendritic zone, could see some light snow showers
clip far northeast Kansas with some scattered flurries elsewhere.
Any snow that develops before sunrise Monday morning should be light
at less than one-half inch. The continued breezy northwest winds
overnight will push low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Northwest winds will be ongoing on Monday morning with a sharp
increase expected by sunrise or shortly thereafter as boundary
layer mixing rapidly increases and a strong low level jet is mixed
to the surface. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph seem possible from
around 8 AM through 5 PM...with the strongest winds likely east of
a Marysville to Burlington line. In this area, a gust greater than
50 mph is within the realm of possibility. Another interesting
aspect of Monday will be the potential for snow showers and
flurries, possibly with enough intensity to sharply reduce
visibility for brief periods of time when coupled with the strong
winds. These will develop as convective shallow cloud snow showers
within the boundary layer as the strong low level cold advection
will promote CAPE of 30 to 75 J/kg within a few thousand feet of
the surface. It appears that far eastern KS will have the best
chance for these more widespread snow showers as the saturated
layer will be a bit deeper and with colder temperatures aloft,
more likely to extend into the dendritic growth temperature zone.

Snow showers should exit the area and winds will decrease by late
Monday and Monday night. Beyond that point, expect a gradual
warming trend toward the upper 40s by late week, although we will
remain under northwest flow with periodic pulses of colder air
skirting by to the northeast. Wednesday and Friday both feature
weak embedded short wave troughs diving across the Plains. Ascent
isn`t particularly strong and the airmass rather dry locally so
the chance of precip with these systems is low in the local area,
but will want to monitor for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions should dominate particularly in the first half of
the forecast. Wind speeds are the main challenge with deep mixing
possibly leading to brief strong wind gusts around 20Z and again
late in the forecast. Could have more stronger gusts between 0Z
and 15Z but this appear less common. At least small chances for
brief visibility and ceiling restrictions remain in this same
window with snow shower potential but too little for a mention
yet.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-020-021-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65




000
FXUS63 KTOP 071746
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Early this morning water vapor imagery showed a mid-level shortwave
trough over the far Northern Plains, with models showing this trough
quickly deepening into the central U.S. this afternoon through this
evening. As this trough dives into the area, it will help to push
the area of low pressure southward, increasing the pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This pressure gradient combined with 40-
60kt 850mb winds will result in some very breezy conditions today.
Model soundings show deep mixing likely across portions of north
central and central Kansas, so some of these strong winds may reach
the surface with gusts of 40-45mph likely for a few hours this
afternoon. As a result, have issued a Wind Advisory for this
afternoon across north central and central Kansas.  Expect the mid-
level clouds to briefly scatter out late this morning into this
afternoon before developing once again this evening. Despite the
breezy northwesterly winds and scattered mid-level clouds, expect
temperatures to warm into the low 50s for much of the outlook area.
The only exception is in far north central Kansas where these
northwest winds may usher some cooler air into the area off of the
snow pack still present in Nebraska, with highs likely staying in
the mid/upper 40s.

In addition to the gusty northwesterly winds, expect RHs to drop
into the upper 20 to low 30 percent range across much of east
central Kansas. These conditions will result in very high fire
danger concerns for this afternoon, primarily in the Flint Hills
region.

Overnight another shortwave embedded within the western edge of the
mid-level trough will skim southward, barely clipping far northeast
Kansas. Expect increasing low-level moisture and low clouds with
this approaching wave, however there is not much available lift
until early Monday morning. With model soundings showing saturation
extending into the dendritic zone, could see some light snow showers
clip far northeast Kansas with some scattered flurries elsewhere.
Any snow that develops before sunrise Monday morning should be light
at less than one-half inch. The continued breezy northwest winds
overnight will push low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Northwest winds will be ongoing on Monday morning with a sharp
increase expected by sunrise or shortly thereafter as boundary
layer mixing rapidly increases and a strong low level jet is mixed
to the surface. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph seem possible from
around 8 AM through 5 PM...with the strongest winds likely east of
a Marysville to Burlington line. In this area, a gust greater than
50 mph is within the realm of possibility. Another interesting
aspect of Monday will be the potential for snow showers and
flurries, possibly with enough intensity to sharply reduce
visibility for brief periods of time when coupled with the strong
winds. These will develop as convective shallow cloud snow showers
within the boundary layer as the strong low level cold advection
will promote CAPE of 30 to 75 J/kg within a few thousand feet of
the surface. It appears that far eastern KS will have the best
chance for these more widespread snow showers as the saturated
layer will be a bit deeper and with colder temperatures aloft,
more likely to extend into the dendritic growth temperature zone.

Snow showers should exit the area and winds will decrease by late
Monday and Monday night. Beyond that point, expect a gradual
warming trend toward the upper 40s by late week, although we will
remain under northwest flow with periodic pulses of colder air
skirting by to the northeast. Wednesday and Friday both feature
weak embedded short wave troughs diving across the Plains. Ascent
isn`t particularly strong and the airmass rather dry locally so
the chance of precip with these systems is low in the local area,
but will want to monitor for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR conditions should dominate particularly in the first half of
the forecast. Wind speeds are the main challenge with deep mixing
possibly leading to brief strong wind gusts around 20Z and again
late in the forecast. Could have more stronger gusts between 0Z
and 15Z but this appear less common. At least small chances for
brief visibility and ceiling restrictions remain in this same
window with snow shower potential but too little for a mention
yet.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008-020-021-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65



000
FXUS63 KGLD 071731
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WINDS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE REMAINING SNOW COVER.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
AND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH. THE
CONCERN WITH WINDS SPEEDS THAT HIGH OVER THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SNOW COVER IS THAT SOME SNOW MAY BE LIFTED AND BLOWN BY THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT MELTING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT
THAT THE SNOW IS CRUSTED OVER ENOUGH NOT TO BE AVAILABLE FOR
TRANSPORT BY THE WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY DUST EITHER AS ANY OPEN
DIRT AREAS ARE WELL COVERED BY THE SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TRANSLATES EAST
SOMEWHAT AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES
MORE EXTENSIVE AND BEGINS TO MODIFY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL
EXPECT THE SNOW COVER TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND HAVE TRIED TO
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY TREND OBSERVED
SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THIS LEAVES THE TRI-
STATE REGION DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WHICH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LOW TO THE
EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST...WILL BE THE KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR TO
OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED FURTHER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WINS THE BATTLE...
ANTICIPATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH AND LIKELY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT OR TWO WITH IT. THIS MAY HAPPEN SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ANY FRONTS/DISTURBANCES THAT
PASS THROUGH WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ALL.

IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WINS...WARM WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB DEPENDS ON ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER...DAYTIME MIXING AND CLOUD COVER AMONG MANY
OTHER FACTORS. EITHER WAY...IF THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PATTERN...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KDDC 071720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

At 12z Sunday a 500mb ridge axis was extended north from the
Coast of California to western British Columbia. A northwest flow
was evident across the Central United States and embedded in this
northwest flow was an upper level trough that was located over the
Northern Plains. This upper level trough was also associated with
the left exit region of a 250mb jet that stretched from western
Nebraska to north central Montana. A surface cold front at 12z
Sunday extended from the panhandle of Texas to northwest Missouri.
850mb temperatures north of this cold front ranged from +4C at
Dodge City to +1C at North Platte. Rapid City reported at 850mb
temperature of -2c.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The intense lower-mid tropospheric pressure gradient will persist
across western/central KS on Monday with similar winds forecast as
Sunday over the same general areas. We will finally see the
gradient relax some by Tuesday with slightly warmer downslope air
beginning to move in. Far southwest KS will see the greatest
benefit from the downslope component with highs Tuesday in the
lower 60s from Elkhart to Liberal, whereas mid to upper 40s are
forecast up around Hays. This southwest to northeast temperature
gradient will persist through the week as we remain in a northwest
flow regime. By late in the week, the forecast becomes a bit more
problematic as any wiggle in the northwest flow pattern will bring
some colder in from the northeast (quasi-stationary backdoor cold
front). We could see some impressive temperature gradients across
Kansas late in the week going into the weekend with far southwest
Kansas seeing upper 60s to lower 70s whereas portions of
northern/central KS remain in the 30s and 40s. We will need to see
a breakdown of the northwest flow pattern before we see any
meaningful chances for precipitation, which wouldn`t be until
14-15 February at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  25  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  22  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  25  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  25  37  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  28  44  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KDDC 071720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

At 12z Sunday a 500mb ridge axis was extended north from the
Coast of California to western British Columbia. A northwest flow
was evident across the Central United States and embedded in this
northwest flow was an upper level trough that was located over the
Northern Plains. This upper level trough was also associated with
the left exit region of a 250mb jet that stretched from western
Nebraska to north central Montana. A surface cold front at 12z
Sunday extended from the panhandle of Texas to northwest Missouri.
850mb temperatures north of this cold front ranged from +4C at
Dodge City to +1C at North Platte. Rapid City reported at 850mb
temperature of -2c.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The intense lower-mid tropospheric pressure gradient will persist
across western/central KS on Monday with similar winds forecast as
Sunday over the same general areas. We will finally see the
gradient relax some by Tuesday with slightly warmer downslope air
beginning to move in. Far southwest KS will see the greatest
benefit from the downslope component with highs Tuesday in the
lower 60s from Elkhart to Liberal, whereas mid to upper 40s are
forecast up around Hays. This southwest to northeast temperature
gradient will persist through the week as we remain in a northwest
flow regime. By late in the week, the forecast becomes a bit more
problematic as any wiggle in the northwest flow pattern will bring
some colder in from the northeast (quasi-stationary backdoor cold
front). We could see some impressive temperature gradients across
Kansas late in the week going into the weekend with far southwest
Kansas seeing upper 60s to lower 70s whereas portions of
northern/central KS remain in the 30s and 40s. We will need to see
a breakdown of the northwest flow pattern before we see any
meaningful chances for precipitation, which wouldn`t be until
14-15 February at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  25  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  22  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  25  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  25  37  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  28  44  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert




000
FXUS63 KDDC 071720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

At 12z Sunday a 500mb ridge axis was extended north from the
Coast of California to western British Columbia. A northwest flow
was evident across the Central United States and embedded in this
northwest flow was an upper level trough that was located over the
Northern Plains. This upper level trough was also associated with
the left exit region of a 250mb jet that stretched from western
Nebraska to north central Montana. A surface cold front at 12z
Sunday extended from the panhandle of Texas to northwest Missouri.
850mb temperatures north of this cold front ranged from +4C at
Dodge City to +1C at North Platte. Rapid City reported at 850mb
temperature of -2c.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The intense lower-mid tropospheric pressure gradient will persist
across western/central KS on Monday with similar winds forecast as
Sunday over the same general areas. We will finally see the
gradient relax some by Tuesday with slightly warmer downslope air
beginning to move in. Far southwest KS will see the greatest
benefit from the downslope component with highs Tuesday in the
lower 60s from Elkhart to Liberal, whereas mid to upper 40s are
forecast up around Hays. This southwest to northeast temperature
gradient will persist through the week as we remain in a northwest
flow regime. By late in the week, the forecast becomes a bit more
problematic as any wiggle in the northwest flow pattern will bring
some colder in from the northeast (quasi-stationary backdoor cold
front). We could see some impressive temperature gradients across
Kansas late in the week going into the weekend with far southwest
Kansas seeing upper 60s to lower 70s whereas portions of
northern/central KS remain in the 30s and 40s. We will need to see
a breakdown of the northwest flow pattern before we see any
meaningful chances for precipitation, which wouldn`t be until
14-15 February at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Gusty northwest winds will range from 20 to near 25 knots this
afternoon based the mean mixed down winds from the RAP and GFS
this afternoon. The strongest afternoon winds will be in the Hays
area through 00z Monday. These gusty northwest winds will then
fall back into the 15 to 20 knot range after sunset. Mid to high
level clouds will be on the increase this afternoon as an upper
level disturbance crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  25  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  46  22  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  25  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  25  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  25  37  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  28  44  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert



000
FXUS63 KGLD 071205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WINDS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE REMAINING SNOW COVER.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
AND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH. THE
CONCERN WITH WINDS SPEEDS THAT HIGH OVER THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SNOW COVER IS THAT SOME SNOW MAY BE LIFTED AND BLOWN BY THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT MELTING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT
THAT THE SNOW IS CRUSTED OVER ENOUGH NOT TO BE AVAILABLE FOR
TRANSPORT BY THE WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY DUST EITHER AS ANY OPEN
DIRT AREAS ARE WELL COVERED BY THE SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TRANSLATES EAST
SOMEWHAT AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES
MORE EXTENSIVE AND BEGINS TO MODIFY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL
EXPECT THE SNOW COVER TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND HAVE TRIED TO
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY TREND OBSERVED
SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THIS LEAVES THE TRI-
STATE REGION DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WHICH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LOW TO THE
EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST...WILL BE THE KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR TO
OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED FURTHER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WINS THE BATTLE...
ANTICIPATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH AND LIKELY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT OR TWO WITH IT. THIS MAY HAPPEN SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ANY FRONTS/DISTURBANCES THAT
PASS THROUGH WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ALL.

IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WINS...WARM WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB DEPENDS ON ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER...DAYTIME MIXING AND CLOUD COVER AMONG MANY
OTHER FACTORS. EITHER WAY...IF THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PATTERN...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER BY 16Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AT THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING SUNSET...HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE NIGHTTIME
INVERSION LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 50KTS THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KGLD 071205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WINDS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE REMAINING SNOW COVER.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
AND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH. THE
CONCERN WITH WINDS SPEEDS THAT HIGH OVER THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SNOW COVER IS THAT SOME SNOW MAY BE LIFTED AND BLOWN BY THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT MELTING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT
THAT THE SNOW IS CRUSTED OVER ENOUGH NOT TO BE AVAILABLE FOR
TRANSPORT BY THE WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY DUST EITHER AS ANY OPEN
DIRT AREAS ARE WELL COVERED BY THE SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TRANSLATES EAST
SOMEWHAT AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES
MORE EXTENSIVE AND BEGINS TO MODIFY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL
EXPECT THE SNOW COVER TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND HAVE TRIED TO
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY TREND OBSERVED
SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THIS LEAVES THE TRI-
STATE REGION DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WHICH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LOW TO THE
EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST...WILL BE THE KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR TO
OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED FURTHER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WINS THE BATTLE...
ANTICIPATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH AND LIKELY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT OR TWO WITH IT. THIS MAY HAPPEN SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ANY FRONTS/DISTURBANCES THAT
PASS THROUGH WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ALL.

IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WINS...WARM WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB DEPENDS ON ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER...DAYTIME MIXING AND CLOUD COVER AMONG MANY
OTHER FACTORS. EITHER WAY...IF THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PATTERN...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER BY 16Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AT THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING SUNSET...HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE NIGHTTIME
INVERSION LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 50KTS THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KICT 071202
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING.  NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 32-35 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AS AN AREA LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA...MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. DRY LOW LAYERS
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FLURRIES FROM REACHING THE GROUND...WITH ONLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED...BUT WILL INSERT OF MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW
OR VCSH FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 071202
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING.  NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 32-35 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AS AN AREA LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA...MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. DRY LOW LAYERS
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FLURRIES FROM REACHING THE GROUND...WITH ONLY
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED...BUT WILL INSERT OF MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW
OR VCSH FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 071151
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
551 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The intense lower-mid tropospheric pressure gradient will persist
across western/central KS on Monday with similar winds forecast as
Sunday over the same general areas. We will finally see the
gradient relax some by Tuesday with slightly warmer downslope air
beginning to move in. Far southwest KS will see the greatest
benefit from the downslope component with highs Tuesday in the
lower 60s from Elkhart to Liberal, whereas mid to upper 40s are
forecast up around Hays. This southwest to northeast temperature
gradient will persist through the week as we remain in a northwest
flow regime. By late in the week, the forecast becomes a bit more
problematic as any wiggle in the northwest flow pattern will bring
some colder in from the northeast (quasi-stationary backdoor cold
front). We could see some impressive temperature gradients across
Kansas late in the week going into the weekend with far southwest
Kansas seeing upper 60s to lower 70s whereas portions of
northern/central KS remain in the 30s and 40s. We will need to see
a breakdown of the northwest flow pattern before we see any
meaningful chances for precipitation, which wouldn`t be until
14-15 February at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Winds will increase during the morning and then will be strong and
gusty this afternoon as deep mixing occurs behind a cold front. At
this point stratus is not expected to move off the snow field to
the north.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  25  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  24  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  24  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  27  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  23  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  28  45  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hutton




000
FXUS63 KDDC 071151
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
551 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The intense lower-mid tropospheric pressure gradient will persist
across western/central KS on Monday with similar winds forecast as
Sunday over the same general areas. We will finally see the
gradient relax some by Tuesday with slightly warmer downslope air
beginning to move in. Far southwest KS will see the greatest
benefit from the downslope component with highs Tuesday in the
lower 60s from Elkhart to Liberal, whereas mid to upper 40s are
forecast up around Hays. This southwest to northeast temperature
gradient will persist through the week as we remain in a northwest
flow regime. By late in the week, the forecast becomes a bit more
problematic as any wiggle in the northwest flow pattern will bring
some colder in from the northeast (quasi-stationary backdoor cold
front). We could see some impressive temperature gradients across
Kansas late in the week going into the weekend with far southwest
Kansas seeing upper 60s to lower 70s whereas portions of
northern/central KS remain in the 30s and 40s. We will need to see
a breakdown of the northwest flow pattern before we see any
meaningful chances for precipitation, which wouldn`t be until
14-15 February at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Winds will increase during the morning and then will be strong and
gusty this afternoon as deep mixing occurs behind a cold front. At
this point stratus is not expected to move off the snow field to
the north.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  25  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  24  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  24  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  27  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  23  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  28  45  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hutton



000
FXUS63 KTOP 071138
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
538 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Early this morning water vapor imagery showed a mid-level shortwave
trough over the far Northern Plains, with models showing this trough
quickly deepening into the central U.S. this afternoon through this
evening. As this trough dives into the area, it will help to push
the area of low pressure southward, increasing the pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This pressure gradient combined with 40-
60kt 850mb winds will result in some very breezy conditions today.
Model soundings show deep mixing likely across portions of north
central and central Kansas, so some of these strong winds may reach
the surface with gusts of 40-45mph likely for a few hours this
afternoon. As a result, have issued a Wind Advisory for this
afternoon across north central and central Kansas.  Expect the mid-
level clouds to briefly scatter out late this morning into this
afternoon before developing once again this evening. Despite the
breezy northwesterly winds and scattered mid-level clouds, expect
temperatures to warm into the low 50s for much of the outlook area.
The only exception is in far north central Kansas where these
northwest winds may usher some cooler air into the area off of the
snow pack still present in Nebraska, with highs likely staying in
the mid/upper 40s.

In addition to the gusty northwesterly winds, expect RHs to drop
into the upper 20 to low 30 percent range across much of east
central Kansas. These conditions will result in very high fire
danger concerns for this afternoon, primarily in the Flint Hills
region.

Overnight another shortwave embedded within the western edge of the
mid-level trough will skim southward, barely clipping far northeast
Kansas. Expect increasing low-level moisture and low clouds with
this approaching wave, however there is not much available lift
until early Monday morning. With model soundings showing saturation
extending into the dendritic zone, could see some light snow showers
clip far northeast Kansas with some scattered flurries elsewhere.
Any snow that develops before sunrise Monday morning should be light
at less than one-half inch. The continued breezy northwest winds
overnight will push low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Northwest winds will be ongoing on Monday morning with a sharp
increase expected by sunrise or shortly thereafter as boundary
layer mixing rapidly increases and a strong low level jet is mixed
to the surface. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph seem possible from
around 8 AM through 5 PM...with the strongest winds likely east of
a Marysville to Burlington line. In this area, a gust greater than
50 mph is within the realm of possibility. Another interesting
aspect of Monday will be the potential for snow showers and
flurries, possibly with enough intensity to sharply reduce
visibility for brief periods of time when coupled with the strong
winds. These will develop as convective shallow cloud snow showers
within the boundary layer as the strong low level cold advection
will promote CAPE of 30 to 75 J/kg within a few thousand feet of
the surface. It appears that far eastern KS will have the best
chance for these more widespread snow showers as the saturated
layer will be a bit deeper and with colder temperatures aloft,
more likely to extend into the dendritic growth temperature zone.

Snow showers should exit the area and winds will decrease by late
Monday and Monday night. Beyond that point, expect a gradual
warming trend toward the upper 40s by late week, although we will
remain under northwest flow with periodic pulses of colder air
skirting by to the northeast. Wednesday and Friday both feature
weak embedded short wave troughs diving across the Plains. Ascent
isn`t particularly strong and the airmass rather dry locally so
the chance of precip with these systems is low in the local area,
but will want to monitor for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

For the 12z TAFs, winds will continue to veer to the northwest
this morning and will become very breezy. Wind gusts late morning
through this afternoon may be up to 30 to 35kts. These winds will
only diminish slightly overnight with gusts of 20-30kts expected
into Monday morning. Low clouds will begin to stream into the
region overnight into Monday morning as a shortwave approaches the
area. There is the potential for some MVFR cigs with these low
clouds early Monday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST this evening
for KSZ008-020-021-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke




000
FXUS63 KTOP 071138
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
538 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Early this morning water vapor imagery showed a mid-level shortwave
trough over the far Northern Plains, with models showing this trough
quickly deepening into the central U.S. this afternoon through this
evening. As this trough dives into the area, it will help to push
the area of low pressure southward, increasing the pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This pressure gradient combined with 40-
60kt 850mb winds will result in some very breezy conditions today.
Model soundings show deep mixing likely across portions of north
central and central Kansas, so some of these strong winds may reach
the surface with gusts of 40-45mph likely for a few hours this
afternoon. As a result, have issued a Wind Advisory for this
afternoon across north central and central Kansas.  Expect the mid-
level clouds to briefly scatter out late this morning into this
afternoon before developing once again this evening. Despite the
breezy northwesterly winds and scattered mid-level clouds, expect
temperatures to warm into the low 50s for much of the outlook area.
The only exception is in far north central Kansas where these
northwest winds may usher some cooler air into the area off of the
snow pack still present in Nebraska, with highs likely staying in
the mid/upper 40s.

In addition to the gusty northwesterly winds, expect RHs to drop
into the upper 20 to low 30 percent range across much of east
central Kansas. These conditions will result in very high fire
danger concerns for this afternoon, primarily in the Flint Hills
region.

Overnight another shortwave embedded within the western edge of the
mid-level trough will skim southward, barely clipping far northeast
Kansas. Expect increasing low-level moisture and low clouds with
this approaching wave, however there is not much available lift
until early Monday morning. With model soundings showing saturation
extending into the dendritic zone, could see some light snow showers
clip far northeast Kansas with some scattered flurries elsewhere.
Any snow that develops before sunrise Monday morning should be light
at less than one-half inch. The continued breezy northwest winds
overnight will push low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Northwest winds will be ongoing on Monday morning with a sharp
increase expected by sunrise or shortly thereafter as boundary
layer mixing rapidly increases and a strong low level jet is mixed
to the surface. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph seem possible from
around 8 AM through 5 PM...with the strongest winds likely east of
a Marysville to Burlington line. In this area, a gust greater than
50 mph is within the realm of possibility. Another interesting
aspect of Monday will be the potential for snow showers and
flurries, possibly with enough intensity to sharply reduce
visibility for brief periods of time when coupled with the strong
winds. These will develop as convective shallow cloud snow showers
within the boundary layer as the strong low level cold advection
will promote CAPE of 30 to 75 J/kg within a few thousand feet of
the surface. It appears that far eastern KS will have the best
chance for these more widespread snow showers as the saturated
layer will be a bit deeper and with colder temperatures aloft,
more likely to extend into the dendritic growth temperature zone.

Snow showers should exit the area and winds will decrease by late
Monday and Monday night. Beyond that point, expect a gradual
warming trend toward the upper 40s by late week, although we will
remain under northwest flow with periodic pulses of colder air
skirting by to the northeast. Wednesday and Friday both feature
weak embedded short wave troughs diving across the Plains. Ascent
isn`t particularly strong and the airmass rather dry locally so
the chance of precip with these systems is low in the local area,
but will want to monitor for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 533 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

For the 12z TAFs, winds will continue to veer to the northwest
this morning and will become very breezy. Wind gusts late morning
through this afternoon may be up to 30 to 35kts. These winds will
only diminish slightly overnight with gusts of 20-30kts expected
into Monday morning. Low clouds will begin to stream into the
region overnight into Monday morning as a shortwave approaches the
area. There is the potential for some MVFR cigs with these low
clouds early Monday morning.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST this evening
for KSZ008-020-021-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke



000
FXUS63 KDDC 071119
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Winds will increase during the morning and then will be strong and
gusty this afternoon as deep mixing occurs behind a cold front. At
this point stratus is not expected to move off the snow field to
the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  25  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  24  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  24  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  27  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  23  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  28  45  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hutton



000
FXUS63 KDDC 071119
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Winds will increase during the morning and then will be strong and
gusty this afternoon as deep mixing occurs behind a cold front. At
this point stratus is not expected to move off the snow field to
the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  25  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  24  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  24  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  27  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  23  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  28  45  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hutton




000
FXUS63 KGLD 071015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
315 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WINDS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE REMAINING SNOW COVER.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
AND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH. THE
CONCERN WITH WINDS SPEEDS THAT HIGH OVER THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SNOW COVER IS THAT SOME SNOW MAY BE LIFTED AND BLOWN BY THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT MELTING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT
THAT THE SNOW IS CRUSTED OVER ENOUGH NOT TO BE AVAILABLE FOR
TRANSPORT BY THE WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY DUST EITHER AS ANY OPEN
DIRT AREAS ARE WELL COVERED BY THE SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TRANSLATES EAST
SOMEWHAT AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES
MORE EXTENSIVE AND BEGINS TO MODIFY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL
EXPECT THE SNOW COVER TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND HAVE TRIED TO
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY TREND OBSERVED
SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THIS LEAVES THE TRI-
STATE REGION DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WHICH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LOW TO THE
EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST...WILL BE THE KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR TO
OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED FURTHER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WINS THE BATTLE...
ANTICIPATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH AND LIKELY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT OR TWO WITH IT. THIS MAY HAPPEN SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ANY FRONTS/DISTURBANCES THAT
PASS THROUGH WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ALL.

IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WINS...WARM WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB DEPENDS ON ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER...DAYTIME MIXING AND CLOUD COVER AMONG MANY
OTHER FACTORS. EITHER WAY...IF THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PATTERN...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW 15-30KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SHEAR N AT 50KTS AFT 02Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 070924
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Early this morning water vapor imagery showed a mid-level shortwave
trough over the far Northern Plains, with models showing this trough
quickly deepening into the central U.S. this afternoon through this
evening. As this trough dives into the area, it will help to push
the area of low pressure southward, increasing the pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This pressure gradient combined with 40-
60kt 850mb winds will result in some very breezy conditions today.
Model soundings show deep mixing likely across portions of north
central and central Kansas, so some of these strong winds may reach
the surface with gusts of 40-45mph likely for a few hours this
afternoon. As a result, have issued a Wind Advisory for this
afternoon across north central and central Kansas.  Expect the mid-
level clouds to briefly scatter out late this morning into this
afternoon before developing once again this evening. Despite the
breezy northwesterly winds and scattered mid-level clouds, expect
temperatures to warm into the low 50s for much of the outlook area.
The only exception is in far north central Kansas where these
northwest winds may usher some cooler air into the area off of the
snow pack still present in Nebraska, with highs likely staying in
the mid/upper 40s.

In addition to the gusty northwesterly winds, expect RHs to drop
into the upper 20 to low 30 percent range across much of east
central Kansas. These conditions will result in very high fire
danger concerns for this afternoon, primarily in the Flint Hills
region.

Overnight another shortwave embedded within the western edge of the
mid-level trough will skim southward, barely clipping far northeast
Kansas. Expect increasing low-level moisture and low clouds with
this approaching wave, however there is not much available lift
until early Monday morning. With model soundings showing saturation
extending into the dendritic zone, could see some light snow showers
clip far northeast Kansas with some scattered flurries elsewhere.
Any snow that develops before sunrise Monday morning should be light
at less than one-half inch. The continued breezy northwest winds
overnight will push low temperatures into the mid/upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

Northwest winds will be ongoing on Monday morning with a sharp
increase expected by sunrise or shortly thereafter as boundary
layer mixing rapidly increases and a strong low level jet is mixed
to the surface. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph seem possible from
around 8 AM through 5 PM...with the strongest winds likely east of
a Marysville to Burlington line. In this area, a gust greater than
50 mph is within the realm of possibility. Another interesting
aspect of Monday will be the potential for snow showers and
flurries, possibly with enough intensity to sharply reduce
visibility for brief periods of time when coupled with the strong
winds. These will develop as convective shallow cloud snow showers
within the boundary layer as the strong low level cold advection
will promote CAPE of 30 to 75 J/kg within a few thousand feet of
the surface. It appears that far eastern KS will have the best
chance for these more widespread snow showers as the saturated
layer will be a bit deeper and with colder temperatures aloft,
more likely to extend into the dendritic growth temperature zone.

Snow showers should exit the area and winds will decrease by late
Monday and Monday night. Beyond that point, expect a gradual
warming trend toward the upper 40s by late week, although we will
remain under northwest flow with periodic pulses of colder air
skirting by to the northeast. Wednesday and Friday both feature
weak embedded short wave troughs diving across the Plains. Ascent
isn`t particularly strong and the airmass rather dry locally so
the chance of precip with these systems is low in the local area,
but will want to monitor for any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A southwesterly low-level jet at about 1,000 feet above the
surface will strengthen to 40 to 50 KTS after 6Z, while southwest
surface winds will remain below 11 KTS. This will cause the
terminals to reach LLWS criteria between 6Z and 12Z. West-
northwest surface winds will increase this afternoon to 15 to 22
KTS with gusts of 25 to 30 KTS. The winds will only diminish
slightly overnight. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST this evening
for KSZ008-020-021-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KICT 070845 CCA
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY LOCATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 30-35 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW STRONG THE
SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE
MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070843
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY LOCATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 30-35 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW STRONG THE
SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE
MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070843
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY LOCATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 30-35 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW STRONG THE
SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE
MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070843
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY LOCATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 30-35 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW STRONG THE
SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE
MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070843
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY LOCATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 30-35 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW STRONG THE
SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE
MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070843
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...DEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND MIXING UP TO AROUND 700MB SHOULD PROMOTE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30 MPH...WITH MAX GUSTS
LIKELY UP AROUND 45 MPH. THEREFORE...HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FROM
GENERALLY THE FLINT HILLS ON WEST NOON-7PM (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS).

MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...AND IN FACT WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER GIVEN THE DEEP AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.
FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO INTEROFFICE
COLLABORATION CONSTRAINTS. HOWEVER...FULLY ANTICIPATE EITHER
TODAY`S FORECASTER OR SUNDAY NIGHT`S FORECASTER TO HOIST THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR MONDAY. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
MONDAY`S FIRE DANGER.

THE CHILLY MODIFIED POLAR AIR WON`T REALLY ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT-
MONDAY...SO TODAY`S HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE 30S-40S. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW
FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WITH A DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED...A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEEK`S
END...RANGING FROM 60S OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO 20S- 30S OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI. WICHITA`S FORECAST AREA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN
THE MIDDLE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOW TO NIL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY LOCATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 30-35 MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW STRONG THE
SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE
MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HOISTED A RED FLAG WARNING NOON-7PM TODAY GENERALLY FROM THE
FLINT HILLS ON WEST DUE TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. EXCLUDED
RUSSELL COUNTY GIVEN ROUGHLY HALF OF THE COUNTY IS STILL SNOW
COVERED. MUCH OF THE SAME AREA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN
TOMORROW (MONDAY)...SO HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. VERY STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
20S-30S PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
TODAY-MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    53  30  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  28  43  25 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        52  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  29  44  25 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         44  25  35  24 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  27  38  25 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          51  28  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       51  28  40  24 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  31  42  26 /  10  10   0   0
CHANUTE         55  30  40  24 /  10  10  10   0
IOLA            54  30  38  24 /  10  10  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  30  41  24 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ033-047>052-067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 070838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY TREND OBSERVED
SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THIS LEAVES THE TRI-
STATE REGION DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WHICH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LOW TO THE
EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST...WILL BE THE KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR TO
OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED FURTHER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WINS THE BATTLE...
ANTICIPATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH AND LIKELY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT OR TWO WITH IT. THIS MAY HAPPEN SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ANY FRONTS/DISTURBANCES THAT
PASS THROUGH WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ALL.

IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WINS...WARM WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB DEPENDS ON ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER...DAYTIME MIXING AND CLOUD COVER AMONG MANY
OTHER FACTORS. EITHER WAY...IF THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PATTERN...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW 15-30KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SHEAR N AT 50KTS AFT 02Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 070838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY TREND OBSERVED
SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THIS LEAVES THE TRI-
STATE REGION DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WHICH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LOW TO THE
EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST...WILL BE THE KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR TO
OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED FURTHER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WINS THE BATTLE...
ANTICIPATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH AND LIKELY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT OR TWO WITH IT. THIS MAY HAPPEN SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ANY FRONTS/DISTURBANCES THAT
PASS THROUGH WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ALL.

IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WINS...WARM WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB DEPENDS ON ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER...DAYTIME MIXING AND CLOUD COVER AMONG MANY
OTHER FACTORS. EITHER WAY...IF THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PATTERN...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW 15-30KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SHEAR N AT 50KTS AFT 02Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 070838
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY TREND OBSERVED
SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THIS LEAVES THE TRI-
STATE REGION DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WHICH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LOW TO THE
EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST...WILL BE THE KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR TO
OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED FURTHER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WINS THE BATTLE...
ANTICIPATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH AND LIKELY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT OR TWO WITH IT. THIS MAY HAPPEN SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ANY FRONTS/DISTURBANCES THAT
PASS THROUGH WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ALL.

IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WINS...WARM WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB DEPENDS ON ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER...DAYTIME MIXING AND CLOUD COVER AMONG MANY
OTHER FACTORS. EITHER WAY...IF THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PATTERN...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW 15-30KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SHEAR N AT 50KTS AFT 02Z
MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 070755
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
155 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...Updated Short Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

The biggest challenge will be wind speed magnitude today. An
intense storm system in the larger scale northwest flow pattern
will dive southeast from the Northern Plains into the Midwest
region today. The 800-700mb layer height gradient will increase
quite a bit this afternoon between the the trough axis across Iowa
and an upper high over the Desert Southwest/California. 00z GFS
model shows mean 800-700mb winds increasing from 40-45 knots at
15z across west-central KS to 60-70 knots by 21z! While we will
not mix to this pressure level, we will still see plenty of
momentum within the mixed layer this afternoon supporting surface
winds around 30 knots sustained across portions of west central
KS...and in the 25-30 knot range over much of the rest of west
central and southwest Kansas. In the grids, the WRF-ARW 10-meter
winds match the GFS kinematics fairly well, so the official wind
forecast will reflect very much the WRF-ARW winds with even a bit
of a bump up from that a few knots. As far as temperatures go,
much of this colder airmass coming in behind this trough/front
passage will be downslope modified, so it will not impact
temperatures much at all.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Strong winds will occur Sunday, particularly in the afternoon
hours as a strong upper level disturbance moves across the Midwest
region. We do not expect any lowering of ceiling or reduction in
visibility behind the front, so the VFR forecast will continue
through this TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  25  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  45  24  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  24  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  52  27  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  23  35  24 /   0   0   0   0
P28  56  28  44  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KGLD 070551
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WMW 15-30KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SHEAR N AT 50KTS AFT 02Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 070551
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WMW 15-30KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SHEAR N AT 50KTS AFT 02Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 070551
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WMW 15-30KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS AT TIMES. WIND SHEAR N AT 50KTS AFT 02Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 070544
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1144 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Upper level ridging will be persistent over the western United
States over the next week or so, with upper level troughing over
the East. This is typically a very dry pattern for western
Kansas. The brunt of the cold surges associated with the eastern
trough will stay well to the north and east of western Kansas.
Therefore, mainly average to above average temperatures can be
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong shortwave trough will race southeastward out of Canada
into the northern plains by Sunday. The associated cold front
will pass across western Kansas Sunday morning. Highs will once
again be a little cooler over the snow covered areas of central
and western Kansas, but much of the snow should be gone by late
afternoon. Highs ought to range from the lower 40s at Scott City
to the mid 50s at Medicine Lodge. Expect fairly windy conditions
in the wake of the front from late morning through the afternoon,
particularly in central Kansas. Ahead of the front tonight, lows
will be in the 20s under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Strong winds will occur Sunday, particularly in the afternoon
hours as a strong upper level disturbance moves across the Midwest
region. We do not expect any lowering of ceiling or reduction in
visibility behind the front, so the VFR forecast will continue
through this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  47  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  24  44  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  47  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  41  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  55  28  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KTOP 070544
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1144 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Northwest flow continued over the central and western U.S. per the
20Z water vapor imagery. An upper low over LA was moving away from
the forecast area while a shortwave over the northern Rockies dug
southwest towards the Dakotas. At the surface, an area of low
pressure was deepening over southern Canada with a strengthening
trough of low pressure extending south through the northern plains.

For tonight and Sunday, models show the airmass remaining too dry
for any precip in spite of the shortwave over the northern plains
expected to move across northeast KS in the morning. About the
only thing models prog with the wave is a deck of mid clouds in
the morning. Lows tonight are forecast to be a little warmer than
this morning as a west wind continues to bring some modest warm
air east. Think temps will bottom out in the upper 20s to around
30. Models show good mixing for Sunday, mixing the boundary layer
above 850 MB. However there is also some modest cold air advection
progged by the models in addition to northwest surface winds
coming off the snow pack across NEB. Because of this think the
prev forecast highs still look good with readings expected to be
in the lower 40s adjacent to the snow and around 50 across east
central KS. The pressure gradient should increase through the
afternoon Sunday as high pressure moves into the central Rockies.
This along with the steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing is
expected to bring some gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph to the area.
Although progs of MSLP and the pressure gradient do not appear to
be strong enough for wind advisory criteria in the afternoon.
Nevertheless it looks to become windy during the afternoon and
later shifts will need to keep an eye on whether stronger winds
being mixed down could cause gusts to be a little stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Concerns for high winds and some light snow continue for Sunday
night and Monday. Increasing height/pressure gradients and continued
cold air advection behind the upper trough brings wind speeds up
with decent depths of moisture into the ice crystal formation zone
in deep mixing for at least some snow shower potential, mainly after
midnight Sunday night into midday Monday. Strength of gradients
again not quite to what is expected for sustained Advisory level
winds, but speeds in the middle to upper portion of the mixed
layer around 45kt could easily get brought to the surface for
gusts near Advisory range. Confidence is not yet high enough for
headline issuance, especially given its atypical onset time. Any
snow amounts still look light at best, but restricted visibilities
when combining the falling snow with this type of wind could lead
to intermittent travel problems. The exiting system should allow
for improving conditions in both snow and wind concerns by mid-
late Monday afternoon.

Much of the remainder of the forecast looks benign. Upper heights
gradually rise but western CONUS ridge and Hudson Bay/Great Lakes
trough remain rather persistent. Tuesday looks to bring a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the area as the cold air moves off
with well over 10F spreads possible, but temps should generally be
near to slightly above normal in this regime with little
opportunity for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A southwesterly low-level jet at about 1,000 feet above the
surface will strengthen to 40 to 50 KTS after 6Z, while southwest
surface winds will remain below 11 KTS. This will cause the
terminals to reach LLWS criteria between 6Z and 12Z. West-
northwest surface winds will increase this afternoon to 15 to 22
KTS with gusts of 25 to 30 KTS. The winds will only diminish
slightly overnight. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KTOP 070544
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1144 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Northwest flow continued over the central and western U.S. per the
20Z water vapor imagery. An upper low over LA was moving away from
the forecast area while a shortwave over the northern Rockies dug
southwest towards the Dakotas. At the surface, an area of low
pressure was deepening over southern Canada with a strengthening
trough of low pressure extending south through the northern plains.

For tonight and Sunday, models show the airmass remaining too dry
for any precip in spite of the shortwave over the northern plains
expected to move across northeast KS in the morning. About the
only thing models prog with the wave is a deck of mid clouds in
the morning. Lows tonight are forecast to be a little warmer than
this morning as a west wind continues to bring some modest warm
air east. Think temps will bottom out in the upper 20s to around
30. Models show good mixing for Sunday, mixing the boundary layer
above 850 MB. However there is also some modest cold air advection
progged by the models in addition to northwest surface winds
coming off the snow pack across NEB. Because of this think the
prev forecast highs still look good with readings expected to be
in the lower 40s adjacent to the snow and around 50 across east
central KS. The pressure gradient should increase through the
afternoon Sunday as high pressure moves into the central Rockies.
This along with the steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing is
expected to bring some gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph to the area.
Although progs of MSLP and the pressure gradient do not appear to
be strong enough for wind advisory criteria in the afternoon.
Nevertheless it looks to become windy during the afternoon and
later shifts will need to keep an eye on whether stronger winds
being mixed down could cause gusts to be a little stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Concerns for high winds and some light snow continue for Sunday
night and Monday. Increasing height/pressure gradients and continued
cold air advection behind the upper trough brings wind speeds up
with decent depths of moisture into the ice crystal formation zone
in deep mixing for at least some snow shower potential, mainly after
midnight Sunday night into midday Monday. Strength of gradients
again not quite to what is expected for sustained Advisory level
winds, but speeds in the middle to upper portion of the mixed
layer around 45kt could easily get brought to the surface for
gusts near Advisory range. Confidence is not yet high enough for
headline issuance, especially given its atypical onset time. Any
snow amounts still look light at best, but restricted visibilities
when combining the falling snow with this type of wind could lead
to intermittent travel problems. The exiting system should allow
for improving conditions in both snow and wind concerns by mid-
late Monday afternoon.

Much of the remainder of the forecast looks benign. Upper heights
gradually rise but western CONUS ridge and Hudson Bay/Great Lakes
trough remain rather persistent. Tuesday looks to bring a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the area as the cold air moves off
with well over 10F spreads possible, but temps should generally be
near to slightly above normal in this regime with little
opportunity for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A southwesterly low-level jet at about 1,000 feet above the
surface will strengthen to 40 to 50 KTS after 6Z, while southwest
surface winds will remain below 11 KTS. This will cause the
terminals to reach LLWS criteria between 6Z and 12Z. West-
northwest surface winds will increase this afternoon to 15 to 22
KTS with gusts of 25 to 30 KTS. The winds will only diminish
slightly overnight. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan




000
FXUS63 KDDC 070544
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1144 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Upper level ridging will be persistent over the western United
States over the next week or so, with upper level troughing over
the East. This is typically a very dry pattern for western
Kansas. The brunt of the cold surges associated with the eastern
trough will stay well to the north and east of western Kansas.
Therefore, mainly average to above average temperatures can be
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong shortwave trough will race southeastward out of Canada
into the northern plains by Sunday. The associated cold front
will pass across western Kansas Sunday morning. Highs will once
again be a little cooler over the snow covered areas of central
and western Kansas, but much of the snow should be gone by late
afternoon. Highs ought to range from the lower 40s at Scott City
to the mid 50s at Medicine Lodge. Expect fairly windy conditions
in the wake of the front from late morning through the afternoon,
particularly in central Kansas. Ahead of the front tonight, lows
will be in the 20s under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Strong winds will occur Sunday, particularly in the afternoon
hours as a strong upper level disturbance moves across the Midwest
region. We do not expect any lowering of ceiling or reduction in
visibility behind the front, so the VFR forecast will continue
through this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  47  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  24  44  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  47  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  41  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  55  28  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid



000
FXUS63 KTOP 070544
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1144 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Northwest flow continued over the central and western U.S. per the
20Z water vapor imagery. An upper low over LA was moving away from
the forecast area while a shortwave over the northern Rockies dug
southwest towards the Dakotas. At the surface, an area of low
pressure was deepening over southern Canada with a strengthening
trough of low pressure extending south through the northern plains.

For tonight and Sunday, models show the airmass remaining too dry
for any precip in spite of the shortwave over the northern plains
expected to move across northeast KS in the morning. About the
only thing models prog with the wave is a deck of mid clouds in
the morning. Lows tonight are forecast to be a little warmer than
this morning as a west wind continues to bring some modest warm
air east. Think temps will bottom out in the upper 20s to around
30. Models show good mixing for Sunday, mixing the boundary layer
above 850 MB. However there is also some modest cold air advection
progged by the models in addition to northwest surface winds
coming off the snow pack across NEB. Because of this think the
prev forecast highs still look good with readings expected to be
in the lower 40s adjacent to the snow and around 50 across east
central KS. The pressure gradient should increase through the
afternoon Sunday as high pressure moves into the central Rockies.
This along with the steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing is
expected to bring some gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph to the area.
Although progs of MSLP and the pressure gradient do not appear to
be strong enough for wind advisory criteria in the afternoon.
Nevertheless it looks to become windy during the afternoon and
later shifts will need to keep an eye on whether stronger winds
being mixed down could cause gusts to be a little stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Concerns for high winds and some light snow continue for Sunday
night and Monday. Increasing height/pressure gradients and continued
cold air advection behind the upper trough brings wind speeds up
with decent depths of moisture into the ice crystal formation zone
in deep mixing for at least some snow shower potential, mainly after
midnight Sunday night into midday Monday. Strength of gradients
again not quite to what is expected for sustained Advisory level
winds, but speeds in the middle to upper portion of the mixed
layer around 45kt could easily get brought to the surface for
gusts near Advisory range. Confidence is not yet high enough for
headline issuance, especially given its atypical onset time. Any
snow amounts still look light at best, but restricted visibilities
when combining the falling snow with this type of wind could lead
to intermittent travel problems. The exiting system should allow
for improving conditions in both snow and wind concerns by mid-
late Monday afternoon.

Much of the remainder of the forecast looks benign. Upper heights
gradually rise but western CONUS ridge and Hudson Bay/Great Lakes
trough remain rather persistent. Tuesday looks to bring a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the area as the cold air moves off
with well over 10F spreads possible, but temps should generally be
near to slightly above normal in this regime with little
opportunity for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A southwesterly low-level jet at about 1,000 feet above the
surface will strengthen to 40 to 50 KTS after 6Z, while southwest
surface winds will remain below 11 KTS. This will cause the
terminals to reach LLWS criteria between 6Z and 12Z. West-
northwest surface winds will increase this afternoon to 15 to 22
KTS with gusts of 25 to 30 KTS. The winds will only diminish
slightly overnight. Otherwise expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Gargan



000
FXUS63 KDDC 070544
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1144 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Upper level ridging will be persistent over the western United
States over the next week or so, with upper level troughing over
the East. This is typically a very dry pattern for western
Kansas. The brunt of the cold surges associated with the eastern
trough will stay well to the north and east of western Kansas.
Therefore, mainly average to above average temperatures can be
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong shortwave trough will race southeastward out of Canada
into the northern plains by Sunday. The associated cold front
will pass across western Kansas Sunday morning. Highs will once
again be a little cooler over the snow covered areas of central
and western Kansas, but much of the snow should be gone by late
afternoon. Highs ought to range from the lower 40s at Scott City
to the mid 50s at Medicine Lodge. Expect fairly windy conditions
in the wake of the front from late morning through the afternoon,
particularly in central Kansas. Ahead of the front tonight, lows
will be in the 20s under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Strong winds will occur Sunday, particularly in the afternoon
hours as a strong upper level disturbance moves across the Midwest
region. We do not expect any lowering of ceiling or reduction in
visibility behind the front, so the VFR forecast will continue
through this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  47  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  24  44  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  47  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  41  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  55  28  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid




000
FXUS63 KICT 070521
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 30-35MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW
STRONG THE SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070521
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 30-35MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW
STRONG THE SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070521
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 30-35MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW
STRONG THE SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070521
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 30-35MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW
STRONG THE SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070521
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 30-35MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW
STRONG THE SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 070322
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW AROUND 10KTS TO WNW BY 05Z
SUNDAY. BY 09Z SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO NNW 15-30KTS...
STRONGEST AFT 17Z SUNDAY. LLWS 05Z-09Z FOR BOTH SITES NW 35KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 070322
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW AROUND 10KTS TO WNW BY 05Z
SUNDAY. BY 09Z SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO NNW 15-30KTS...
STRONGEST AFT 17Z SUNDAY. LLWS 05Z-09Z FOR BOTH SITES NW 35KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 070322
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW AROUND 10KTS TO WNW BY 05Z
SUNDAY. BY 09Z SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO NNW 15-30KTS...
STRONGEST AFT 17Z SUNDAY. LLWS 05Z-09Z FOR BOTH SITES NW 35KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 070322
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW AROUND 10KTS TO WNW BY 05Z
SUNDAY. BY 09Z SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO NNW 15-30KTS...
STRONGEST AFT 17Z SUNDAY. LLWS 05Z-09Z FOR BOTH SITES NW 35KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 070322
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS BASED
ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
INTACT AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY TWEAK TEMPS A BIT IF THE RATE OF
DECREASE IS SLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VEIL OF CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW AROUND 10KTS TO WNW BY 05Z
SUNDAY. BY 09Z SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO NNW 15-30KTS...
STRONGEST AFT 17Z SUNDAY. LLWS 05Z-09Z FOR BOTH SITES NW 35KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 070000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Upper level ridging will be persistent over the western United
States over the next week or so, with upper level troughing over
the East. This is typically a very dry pattern for western
Kansas. The brunt of the cold surges associated with the eastern
trough will stay well to the north and east of western Kansas.
Therefore, mainly average to above average temperatures can be
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong shortwave trough will race southeastward out of Canada
into the northern plains by Sunday. The associated cold front
will pass across western Kansas Sunday morning. Highs will once
again be a little cooler over the snow covered areas of central
and western Kansas, but much of the snow should be gone by late
afternoon. Highs ought to range from the lower 40s at Scott City
to the mid 50s at Medicine Lodge. Expect fairly windy conditions
in the wake of the front from late morning through the afternoon,
particularly in central Kansas. Ahead of the front tonight, lows
will be in the 20s under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Light westerly surface flow will continue through the period with
a shift to a more northwest direction during the overnight hours.
A significant increase in pressure gradient will bring stronger
winds over the next couple of days. VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  47  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  24  44  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  47  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  41  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  55  28  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 070000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Upper level ridging will be persistent over the western United
States over the next week or so, with upper level troughing over
the East. This is typically a very dry pattern for western
Kansas. The brunt of the cold surges associated with the eastern
trough will stay well to the north and east of western Kansas.
Therefore, mainly average to above average temperatures can be
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong shortwave trough will race southeastward out of Canada
into the northern plains by Sunday. The associated cold front
will pass across western Kansas Sunday morning. Highs will once
again be a little cooler over the snow covered areas of central
and western Kansas, but much of the snow should be gone by late
afternoon. Highs ought to range from the lower 40s at Scott City
to the mid 50s at Medicine Lodge. Expect fairly windy conditions
in the wake of the front from late morning through the afternoon,
particularly in central Kansas. Ahead of the front tonight, lows
will be in the 20s under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Light westerly surface flow will continue through the period with
a shift to a more northwest direction during the overnight hours.
A significant increase in pressure gradient will bring stronger
winds over the next couple of days. VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  47  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  24  44  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  47  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  41  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  55  28  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell




000
FXUS63 KDDC 070000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...updated aviation section...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Upper level ridging will be persistent over the western United
States over the next week or so, with upper level troughing over
the East. This is typically a very dry pattern for western
Kansas. The brunt of the cold surges associated with the eastern
trough will stay well to the north and east of western Kansas.
Therefore, mainly average to above average temperatures can be
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong shortwave trough will race southeastward out of Canada
into the northern plains by Sunday. The associated cold front
will pass across western Kansas Sunday morning. Highs will once
again be a little cooler over the snow covered areas of central
and western Kansas, but much of the snow should be gone by late
afternoon. Highs ought to range from the lower 40s at Scott City
to the mid 50s at Medicine Lodge. Expect fairly windy conditions
in the wake of the front from late morning through the afternoon,
particularly in central Kansas. Ahead of the front tonight, lows
will be in the 20s under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Light westerly surface flow will continue through the period with
a shift to a more northwest direction during the overnight hours.
A significant increase in pressure gradient will bring stronger
winds over the next couple of days. VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  47  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  24  44  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  47  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  41  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  55  28  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell



000
FXUS63 KGLD 062336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW AROUND 10KTS TO WNW BY 05Z
SUNDAY. BY 09Z SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO NNW 15-30KTS...
STRONGEST AFT 17Z SUNDAY. LLWS 05Z-09Z FOR BOTH SITES NW 35KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 062336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW AROUND 10KTS TO WNW BY 05Z
SUNDAY. BY 09Z SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO NNW 15-30KTS...
STRONGEST AFT 17Z SUNDAY. LLWS 05Z-09Z FOR BOTH SITES NW 35KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 062336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES...WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW AROUND 10KTS TO WNW BY 05Z
SUNDAY. BY 09Z SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO NNW 15-30KTS...
STRONGEST AFT 17Z SUNDAY. LLWS 05Z-09Z FOR BOTH SITES NW 35KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 062321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
521 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Northwest flow continued over the central and western U.S. per the
20Z water vapor imagery. An upper low over LA was moving away from
the forecast area while a shortwave over the northern Rockies dug
southwest towards the Dakotas. At the surface, an area of low
pressure was deepening over southern Canada with a strengthening
trough of low pressure extending south through the northern plains.

For tonight and Sunday, models show the airmass remaining too dry
for any precip in spite of the shortwave over the northern plains
expected to move across northeast KS in the morning. About the
only thing models prog with the wave is a deck of mid clouds in
the morning. Lows tonight are forecast to be a little warmer than
this morning as a west wind continues to bring some modest warm
air east. Think temps will bottom out in the upper 20s to around
30. Models show good mixing for Sunday, mixing the boundary layer
above 850 MB. However there is also some modest cold air advection
progged by the models in addition to northwest surface winds
coming off the snow pack across NEB. Because of this think the
prev forecast highs still look good with readings expected to be
in the lower 40s adjacent to the snow and around 50 across east
central KS. The pressure gradient should increase through the
afternoon Sunday as high pressure moves into the central Rockies.
This along with the steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing is
expected to bring some gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph to the area.
Although progs of MSLP and the pressure gradient do not appear to
be strong enough for wind advisory criteria in the afternoon.
Nevertheless it looks to become windy during the afternoon and
later shifts will need to keep an eye on whether stronger winds
being mixed down could cause gusts to be a little stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Concerns for high winds and some light snow continue for Sunday
night and Monday. Increasing height/pressure gradients and continued
cold air advection behind the upper trough brings wind speeds up
with decent depths of moisture into the ice crystal formation zone
in deep mixing for at least some snow shower potential, mainly after
midnight Sunday night into midday Monday. Strength of gradients
again not quite to what is expected for sustained Advisory level
winds, but speeds in the middle to upper portion of the mixed
layer around 45kt could easily get brought to the surface for
gusts near Advisory range. Confidence is not yet high enough for
headline issuance, especially given its atypical onset time. Any
snow amounts still look light at best, but restricted visibilities
when combining the falling snow with this type of wind could lead
to intermittent travel problems. The exiting system should allow
for improving conditions in both snow and wind concerns by mid-
late Monday afternoon.

Much of the remainder of the forecast looks benign. Upper heights
gradually rise but western CONUS ridge and Hudson Bay/Great Lakes
trough remain rather persistent. Tuesday looks to bring a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the area as the cold air moves off
with well over 10F spreads possible, but temps should generally be
near to slightly above normal in this regime with little
opportunity for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.  Winds will be
the biggest forecast challenge, with gusty NW winds expected to move
in early morning and ramp up in the afternoon. Although it will be
on the marginal end, have decided to include LLWS overnight at
TOP/FOE where it looks like the boundary layer will decouple for the
longest period of time.  Winds will rapidly pick up after 18Z with
gusts up to 35kts possible throughout the afternoon.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller




000
FXUS63 KTOP 062321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
521 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Northwest flow continued over the central and western U.S. per the
20Z water vapor imagery. An upper low over LA was moving away from
the forecast area while a shortwave over the northern Rockies dug
southwest towards the Dakotas. At the surface, an area of low
pressure was deepening over southern Canada with a strengthening
trough of low pressure extending south through the northern plains.

For tonight and Sunday, models show the airmass remaining too dry
for any precip in spite of the shortwave over the northern plains
expected to move across northeast KS in the morning. About the
only thing models prog with the wave is a deck of mid clouds in
the morning. Lows tonight are forecast to be a little warmer than
this morning as a west wind continues to bring some modest warm
air east. Think temps will bottom out in the upper 20s to around
30. Models show good mixing for Sunday, mixing the boundary layer
above 850 MB. However there is also some modest cold air advection
progged by the models in addition to northwest surface winds
coming off the snow pack across NEB. Because of this think the
prev forecast highs still look good with readings expected to be
in the lower 40s adjacent to the snow and around 50 across east
central KS. The pressure gradient should increase through the
afternoon Sunday as high pressure moves into the central Rockies.
This along with the steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing is
expected to bring some gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph to the area.
Although progs of MSLP and the pressure gradient do not appear to
be strong enough for wind advisory criteria in the afternoon.
Nevertheless it looks to become windy during the afternoon and
later shifts will need to keep an eye on whether stronger winds
being mixed down could cause gusts to be a little stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Concerns for high winds and some light snow continue for Sunday
night and Monday. Increasing height/pressure gradients and continued
cold air advection behind the upper trough brings wind speeds up
with decent depths of moisture into the ice crystal formation zone
in deep mixing for at least some snow shower potential, mainly after
midnight Sunday night into midday Monday. Strength of gradients
again not quite to what is expected for sustained Advisory level
winds, but speeds in the middle to upper portion of the mixed
layer around 45kt could easily get brought to the surface for
gusts near Advisory range. Confidence is not yet high enough for
headline issuance, especially given its atypical onset time. Any
snow amounts still look light at best, but restricted visibilities
when combining the falling snow with this type of wind could lead
to intermittent travel problems. The exiting system should allow
for improving conditions in both snow and wind concerns by mid-
late Monday afternoon.

Much of the remainder of the forecast looks benign. Upper heights
gradually rise but western CONUS ridge and Hudson Bay/Great Lakes
trough remain rather persistent. Tuesday looks to bring a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the area as the cold air moves off
with well over 10F spreads possible, but temps should generally be
near to slightly above normal in this regime with little
opportunity for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.  Winds will be
the biggest forecast challenge, with gusty NW winds expected to move
in early morning and ramp up in the afternoon. Although it will be
on the marginal end, have decided to include LLWS overnight at
TOP/FOE where it looks like the boundary layer will decouple for the
longest period of time.  Winds will rapidly pick up after 18Z with
gusts up to 35kts possible throughout the afternoon.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller



000
FXUS63 KTOP 062321
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
521 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Northwest flow continued over the central and western U.S. per the
20Z water vapor imagery. An upper low over LA was moving away from
the forecast area while a shortwave over the northern Rockies dug
southwest towards the Dakotas. At the surface, an area of low
pressure was deepening over southern Canada with a strengthening
trough of low pressure extending south through the northern plains.

For tonight and Sunday, models show the airmass remaining too dry
for any precip in spite of the shortwave over the northern plains
expected to move across northeast KS in the morning. About the
only thing models prog with the wave is a deck of mid clouds in
the morning. Lows tonight are forecast to be a little warmer than
this morning as a west wind continues to bring some modest warm
air east. Think temps will bottom out in the upper 20s to around
30. Models show good mixing for Sunday, mixing the boundary layer
above 850 MB. However there is also some modest cold air advection
progged by the models in addition to northwest surface winds
coming off the snow pack across NEB. Because of this think the
prev forecast highs still look good with readings expected to be
in the lower 40s adjacent to the snow and around 50 across east
central KS. The pressure gradient should increase through the
afternoon Sunday as high pressure moves into the central Rockies.
This along with the steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing is
expected to bring some gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph to the area.
Although progs of MSLP and the pressure gradient do not appear to
be strong enough for wind advisory criteria in the afternoon.
Nevertheless it looks to become windy during the afternoon and
later shifts will need to keep an eye on whether stronger winds
being mixed down could cause gusts to be a little stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Concerns for high winds and some light snow continue for Sunday
night and Monday. Increasing height/pressure gradients and continued
cold air advection behind the upper trough brings wind speeds up
with decent depths of moisture into the ice crystal formation zone
in deep mixing for at least some snow shower potential, mainly after
midnight Sunday night into midday Monday. Strength of gradients
again not quite to what is expected for sustained Advisory level
winds, but speeds in the middle to upper portion of the mixed
layer around 45kt could easily get brought to the surface for
gusts near Advisory range. Confidence is not yet high enough for
headline issuance, especially given its atypical onset time. Any
snow amounts still look light at best, but restricted visibilities
when combining the falling snow with this type of wind could lead
to intermittent travel problems. The exiting system should allow
for improving conditions in both snow and wind concerns by mid-
late Monday afternoon.

Much of the remainder of the forecast looks benign. Upper heights
gradually rise but western CONUS ridge and Hudson Bay/Great Lakes
trough remain rather persistent. Tuesday looks to bring a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the area as the cold air moves off
with well over 10F spreads possible, but temps should generally be
near to slightly above normal in this regime with little
opportunity for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.  Winds will be
the biggest forecast challenge, with gusty NW winds expected to move
in early morning and ramp up in the afternoon. Although it will be
on the marginal end, have decided to include LLWS overnight at
TOP/FOE where it looks like the boundary layer will decouple for the
longest period of time.  Winds will rapidly pick up after 18Z with
gusts up to 35kts possible throughout the afternoon.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller




000
FXUS63 KICT 062318
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
518 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ALONG THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND
BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF THESE GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW DEEP MIXING BECOMES. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS MAY DETER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35/40KT AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. REGARDLESS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH AND/OR
EXCEED 30MPH ON SUNDAY.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 062318
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
518 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ALONG THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND
BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF THESE GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW DEEP MIXING BECOMES. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS MAY DETER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35/40KT AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. REGARDLESS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH AND/OR
EXCEED 30MPH ON SUNDAY.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 062318
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
518 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ALONG THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND
BECOME GUSTY BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF THESE GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW DEEP MIXING BECOMES. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THIS MAY DETER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35/40KT AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. REGARDLESS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH AND/OR
EXCEED 30MPH ON SUNDAY.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062113
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
313 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Upper level ridging will be persistent over the western United
States over the next week or so, with upper level troughing over
the East. This is typically a very dry pattern for western
Kansas. The brunt of the cold surges associated with the eastern
trough will stay well to the north and east of western Kansas.
Therefore, mainly average to above average temperatures can be
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong shortwave trough will race southeastward out of Canada
into the northern plains by Sunday. The associated cold front
will pass across western Kansas Sunday morning. Highs will once
again be a little cooler over the snow covered areas of central
and western Kansas, but much of the snow should be gone by late
afternoon. Highs ought to range from the lower 40s at Scott City
to the mid 50s at Medicine Lodge. Expect fairly windy conditions
in the wake of the front from late morning through the afternoon,
particularly in central Kansas. Ahead of the front tonight, lows
will be in the 20s under mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Surface high pressure will settle into western Kansas Sunday night
and Monday. Lows will be in the 20s and highs in the 40s. A
warming trend will develop after Monday with highs rising into the
60s and even close to 70 degrees by Wednesday as surface low
pressure develops across western Kansas, along with southwest winds.
Another weak cold front will pass across western Kansas late
Wednesday, with highs falling back into the 50s by Thursday. Some
warming may occur by Friday with 50s and 60s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

More quiet aviation weather is forecast through Saturday and
Saturday Night. Prevailing wind will remain from the west to
southwest. Wind speeds should be at or above 12 knots at GCK and
DDC during roughly the 17z to 22z time frame. VFR flight category
is forecast through the period with upper level ridging moving in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  47  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  24  44  24  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  47  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  41  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  55  28  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KTOP 062057
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Northwest flow continued over the central and western U.S. per the
20Z water vapor imagery. An upper low over LA was moving away from
the forecast area while a shortwave over the northern Rockies dug
southwest towards the Dakotas. At the surface, an area of low
pressure was deepening over southern Canada with a strengthening
trough of low pressure extending south through the northern plains.

For tonight and Sunday, models show the airmass remaining too dry
for any precip in spite of the shortwave over the northern plains
expected to move across northeast KS in the morning. About the
only thing models prog with the wave is a deck of mid clouds in
the morning. Lows tonight are forecast to be a little warmer than
this morning as a west wind continues to bring some modest warm
air east. Think temps will bottom out in the upper 20s to around
30. Models show good mixing for Sunday, mixing the boundary layer
above 850 MB. However there is also some modest cold air advection
progged by the models in addition to northwest surface winds
coming off the snow pack across NEB. Because of this think the
prev forecast highs still look good with readings expected to be
in the lower 40s adjacent to the snow and around 50 across east
central KS. The pressure gradient should increase through the
afternoon Sunday as high pressure moves into the central Rockies.
This along with the steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing is
expected to bring some gusty winds of 35 to 40 mph to the area.
Although progs of MSLP and the pressure gradient do not appear to
be strong enough for wind advisory criteria in the afternoon.
Nevertheless it looks to become windy during the afternoon and
later shifts will need to keep an eye on whether stronger winds
being mixed down could cause gusts to be a little stronger.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Concerns for high winds and some light snow continue for Sunday
night and Monday. Increasing height/pressure gradients and continued
cold air advection behind the upper trough brings wind speeds up
with decent depths of moisture into the ice crystal formation zone
in deep mixing for at least some snow shower potential, mainly after
midnight Sunday night into midday Monday. Strength of gradients
again not quite to what is expected for sustained Advisory level
winds, but speeds in the middle to upper portion of the mixed
layer around 45kt could easily get brought to the surface for
gusts near Advisory range. Confidence is not yet high enough for
headline issuance, especially given its atypical onset time. Any
snow amounts still look light at best, but restricted visibilities
when combining the falling snow with this type of wind could lead
to intermittent travel problems. The exiting system should allow
for improving conditions in both snow and wind concerns by mid-
late Monday afternoon.

Much of the remainder of the forecast looks benign. Upper heights
gradually rise but western CONUS ridge and Hudson Bay/Great Lakes
trough remain rather persistent. Tuesday looks to bring a sharp
gradient in temperatures across the area as the cold air moves off
with well over 10F spreads possible, but temps should generally be
near to slightly above normal in this regime with little
opportunity for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Dry low levels in the atmosphere should lead to VFR conditions.
There is some concern for LLWS overnight due to a sharp nocturnal
inversion. Confidence is not high enough to mention in the
forecast but will monitor trends.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters




000
FXUS63 KICT 062014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
214 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEPARTING THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE
LATE SUN MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
SUN MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY 17Z SUN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          31  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        31  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      29  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          31  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       31  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         33  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            33  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    33  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 062014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
214 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEPARTING THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE
LATE SUN MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
SUN MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY 17Z SUN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          31  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        31  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      29  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          31  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       31  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         33  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            33  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    33  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 062014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
214 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEPARTING THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE
LATE SUN MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
SUN MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY 17Z SUN.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      31  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          31  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        31  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   31  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         29  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      29  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          31  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       31  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         33  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            33  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    33  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 062003
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
103 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH SOME FORCING OVER THE FA SUNDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER LAYER MEAN
RH FROM 850 TO 500MB IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ANY SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  CONSEQUENTLY...POPS WILL BE NIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO
DRY CONDITIONS.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA.  WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN CHANGES SATURDAY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.  LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THANKS TO THE BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE A
BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALLOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE GROUND.  HOWEVER THE COOLING EFFECT OF
THE SNOWFIELD WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND THUS THE
WIND STRENGTH DURING THE DAY.  WITH A COOLER AIR MASS REMAINING OVER
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WARMER VALUES TO THE
WEST IN THE WARMER AIR.

MONDAY NIGHT THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S.



TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AS DRY LAMINAR
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BEHIND THE FRONT
DUE TO THE SNOWFIELD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE TEMPERATURE TREND THE
LAST FEW DAYS...AM EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES JUST NOT SURE
HOW FAR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KICT 061816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7 DAYS: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY- SUNDAY...VERY WINDY SUNDAY- MONDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

FULL SUNSHINE AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COOLER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. NOT EXPECTING COLDER AIR TILL
MONDAY THOUGH...WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S-40S. VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING
ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND MIXING. COULD
SEE POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FLINT HILLS ON
EAST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND...AS THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY...WITH READINGS OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE 60S WED- THU.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEPARTING THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE
LATE SUN MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
SUN MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY 17Z SUN.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S-
40S PERCENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO MARGINALLY EXTREME GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. CONTEMPLATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT
SINCE VALUES JUST BARELY TOUCH THE EXTREME/CRITICAL
THRESHOLD...DECIDED AGAINST IT. NEVERTHELESS...OUTDOOR BURNING
SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH DAYS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  31  52  28 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      55  30  50  27 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          52  31  50  27 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        51  32  52  27 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  31  53  28 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         44  28  43  25 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      48  29  45  25 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          53  31  48  27 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  30  49  27 /   0   0  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  31  54  30 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         51  32  52  29 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            50  31  52  28 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    51  31  53  29 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 061816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7 DAYS: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY- SUNDAY...VERY WINDY SUNDAY- MONDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

FULL SUNSHINE AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COOLER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. NOT EXPECTING COLDER AIR TILL
MONDAY THOUGH...WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S-40S. VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING
ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND MIXING. COULD
SEE POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FLINT HILLS ON
EAST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND...AS THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY...WITH READINGS OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE 60S WED- THU.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEPARTING THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE
LATE SUN MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
SUN MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY 17Z SUN.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S-
40S PERCENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO MARGINALLY EXTREME GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. CONTEMPLATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT
SINCE VALUES JUST BARELY TOUCH THE EXTREME/CRITICAL
THRESHOLD...DECIDED AGAINST IT. NEVERTHELESS...OUTDOOR BURNING
SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH DAYS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  31  52  28 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      55  30  50  27 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          52  31  50  27 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        51  32  52  27 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  31  53  28 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         44  28  43  25 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      48  29  45  25 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          53  31  48  27 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  30  49  27 /   0   0  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  31  54  30 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         51  32  52  29 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            50  31  52  28 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    51  31  53  29 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 061807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Pretty good westerly downslope setup today in between systems.
Temperatures are the only challenge in the forecast, and just how
tight the gradient will be against the remaining snowpack across
west central Kansas. 850mb Temps will warm to around +4 to +6C
which supports surface temperatures in the lower to perhaps mid
50s for highs in areas of no snow cover. Pretty much kept the
previous forecast going with only cosmetic adjustments. We will
start to see some high cirrus spread in late in the day/this
evening from the northwest in advance of the next northwest flow
shortwave trough. West to southwest winds will not be that bad
today in the 10 to 15 mph range. The winds will stay around 10 to
12 mph or so tonight, which will help keep temperatures from
really bottoming out. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 20s still
look pretty good.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

More quiet aviation weather is forecast through Saturday and
Saturday Night. Prevailing wind will remain from the west to
southwest. Wind speeds should be at or above 12 knots at GCK and
DDC during roughly the 17z to 22z time frame. VFR flight category
is forecast through the period with upper level ridging moving in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

On the hemispheric scale, the overarching theme through much of
the Long Term period will be a northwest flow pattern across the
central portion of the country with above to well-above average
heights out west and below to much-below average heights across
the eastern CONUS. An intense synoptic scale system will amplify
this pattern early week as a low tracks from the Upper Midwest
region into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. This feature will
bring strong winds to much of the Great Plains, including
southwest Kansas both Sunday and Monday. The going forecast
already had this wind forecast bumped up pretty high, with
sustained 25 to 35 mph winds across the eastern counties both
days, so there wasn`t much need to change this. Arctic air will
transport equatorward, however east of our part of the world. We
will just get a glancing shot at this airmass, and it will end up
being masked by a slight downslope component, so the end result
will be temperatures Sunday and Monday right around seasonal
average in the upper 30s to lower 40s for highs (warmer along
Oklahoma border). By midweek, we will see deep tropospheric flow
become more downslope, yielding a nice warmup Tuesday and
Wednesday. The latest ECMWF has some really warm air for Wednesday
with a large area of lower to mid 70s for highs! We bumped up the
Wednesday forecast a couple degrees over the SuperBlend guidance
to add a little more of this latest ECMWF influence into the
forecast. Come Thursday, we will probably see another front come
through cooling us back down closer to the seasonal averages, but
any arctic air should avoid southwest Kansas for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Winds will generally be light out of the southwest ahead of a cold
front, then north to northwesterly at 10-15 kts behind the front
after 12-15z. VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  46  25  42 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  24  40  24  41 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  46 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  37  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  52  28  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch




000
FXUS63 KDDC 061807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1207 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Pretty good westerly downslope setup today in between systems.
Temperatures are the only challenge in the forecast, and just how
tight the gradient will be against the remaining snowpack across
west central Kansas. 850mb Temps will warm to around +4 to +6C
which supports surface temperatures in the lower to perhaps mid
50s for highs in areas of no snow cover. Pretty much kept the
previous forecast going with only cosmetic adjustments. We will
start to see some high cirrus spread in late in the day/this
evening from the northwest in advance of the next northwest flow
shortwave trough. West to southwest winds will not be that bad
today in the 10 to 15 mph range. The winds will stay around 10 to
12 mph or so tonight, which will help keep temperatures from
really bottoming out. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 20s still
look pretty good.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

More quiet aviation weather is forecast through Saturday and
Saturday Night. Prevailing wind will remain from the west to
southwest. Wind speeds should be at or above 12 knots at GCK and
DDC during roughly the 17z to 22z time frame. VFR flight category
is forecast through the period with upper level ridging moving in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

On the hemispheric scale, the overarching theme through much of
the Long Term period will be a northwest flow pattern across the
central portion of the country with above to well-above average
heights out west and below to much-below average heights across
the eastern CONUS. An intense synoptic scale system will amplify
this pattern early week as a low tracks from the Upper Midwest
region into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. This feature will
bring strong winds to much of the Great Plains, including
southwest Kansas both Sunday and Monday. The going forecast
already had this wind forecast bumped up pretty high, with
sustained 25 to 35 mph winds across the eastern counties both
days, so there wasn`t much need to change this. Arctic air will
transport equatorward, however east of our part of the world. We
will just get a glancing shot at this airmass, and it will end up
being masked by a slight downslope component, so the end result
will be temperatures Sunday and Monday right around seasonal
average in the upper 30s to lower 40s for highs (warmer along
Oklahoma border). By midweek, we will see deep tropospheric flow
become more downslope, yielding a nice warmup Tuesday and
Wednesday. The latest ECMWF has some really warm air for Wednesday
with a large area of lower to mid 70s for highs! We bumped up the
Wednesday forecast a couple degrees over the SuperBlend guidance
to add a little more of this latest ECMWF influence into the
forecast. Come Thursday, we will probably see another front come
through cooling us back down closer to the seasonal averages, but
any arctic air should avoid southwest Kansas for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Winds will generally be light out of the southwest ahead of a cold
front, then north to northwesterly at 10-15 kts behind the front
after 12-15z. VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  46  25  42 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  24  40  24  41 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  27  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  48  28  46 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  37  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  52  28  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch



000
FXUS63 KTOP 061711
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1111 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A mid-level shortwave trough extended as far south as northeast
Kansas early this morning, resulting in a stratus cloud deck
skimming across far northern and far northeast Kansas. Some short-
range models are still suggesting some patchy fog may develop early
this morning near the KS/NE border as a result of the extra moisture
moving into the area with stratus deck.  This stratus deck combined
with some scattered mid-level clouds elsewhere across the region
will result in low temperatures in the 20s early this morning.
Models show this shortwave trough quickly exiting to the east this
morning with a weak ridge extending into the area this afternoon
into this evening. However, a weak embedded wave located over
Montana this morning should become a more well-defined trough over
the far Northern Plains this afternoon into this evening, deepening
and extending southward toward the area overnight into Sunday
morning. Model soundings show cloud cover scattering out later this
morning, with mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. With
surface low pressure to the north and surface high pressure to the
south today, winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon. These
winds combined with mostly sunny skies should aid in some warm air
advection and afternoon highs reaching into the mid to upper 40s
(possibly even around 50 degrees), with the coolest conditions in
north central Kansas where some snow pack still exists.  As the mid-
level trough approaches the area overnight tonight, expect winds to
start shifting to the west and northwest with some mid-level clouds
possibly moving in before sunrise. As a result, expect low
temperatures tonight to be a few degrees warmer in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong clipper system will be moving into the Great Lakes region
on Sunday with a powerful cold front moving south across the Plains
and into Kansas by mid day Sunday. A secondary cold surge moves
through very early Monday morning. Expect a strong pressure gradient
at the surface and strong uni-directional northwesterly wind field
through the mid levels of the troposphere Sunday through Monday.
Also expect a deeply mixed boundary layer through this period, with
the exception being perhaps brief periods of reduced mixing on
Sunday night. Mean mixed layer winds on Sunday peak in the 30-40 kt
range and should be a good indicator of expected peak gusts although
could be briefly higher immediately behind the surface front
passage. RH will also be lower, probably approaching 30% or a bit
lower for a period on Sunday especially immediately behind the front
as temperatures will be initially warm but the airmass dry. This
could result in a tricky fire weather scenario with the wind shift,
increased gust speeds, and low RH...particularly for any early
weekend burns that may be left smoldering. Then, after the second
cold surge comes through early Monday morning, expected renewed
and even stronger wind gusts possibly on the order of 40-50 mph.
Also expect a chance for snow flurries to develop with a
relatively deep stratocu cloud layer likely to form at the top of
the boundary layer but below the inversion, and with lapse rates
supporting weak instability in this layer. Any flurries should end
by late in the day with winds also decreasing by sunset.

Temperatures warm for the remainder of the week as the cold airmass
shifts east. Will likely see a pretty strong gradient in
temperatures from west to east at least Tues/Wed as 850 T is
forecast to range a solid 10 degrees from SW to NE across the
forecast area on these days. Expect to climb well into the 40s and
approach the 50s by the end of the work week with dry weather likely
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Dry low levels in the atmosphere should lead to VFR conditions.
There is some concern for LLWS overnight due to a sharp nocturnal
inversion. Confidence is not high enough to mention in the
forecast but will monitor trends.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters




000
FXUS63 KTOP 061711
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1111 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A mid-level shortwave trough extended as far south as northeast
Kansas early this morning, resulting in a stratus cloud deck
skimming across far northern and far northeast Kansas. Some short-
range models are still suggesting some patchy fog may develop early
this morning near the KS/NE border as a result of the extra moisture
moving into the area with stratus deck.  This stratus deck combined
with some scattered mid-level clouds elsewhere across the region
will result in low temperatures in the 20s early this morning.
Models show this shortwave trough quickly exiting to the east this
morning with a weak ridge extending into the area this afternoon
into this evening. However, a weak embedded wave located over
Montana this morning should become a more well-defined trough over
the far Northern Plains this afternoon into this evening, deepening
and extending southward toward the area overnight into Sunday
morning. Model soundings show cloud cover scattering out later this
morning, with mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. With
surface low pressure to the north and surface high pressure to the
south today, winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon. These
winds combined with mostly sunny skies should aid in some warm air
advection and afternoon highs reaching into the mid to upper 40s
(possibly even around 50 degrees), with the coolest conditions in
north central Kansas where some snow pack still exists.  As the mid-
level trough approaches the area overnight tonight, expect winds to
start shifting to the west and northwest with some mid-level clouds
possibly moving in before sunrise. As a result, expect low
temperatures tonight to be a few degrees warmer in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong clipper system will be moving into the Great Lakes region
on Sunday with a powerful cold front moving south across the Plains
and into Kansas by mid day Sunday. A secondary cold surge moves
through very early Monday morning. Expect a strong pressure gradient
at the surface and strong uni-directional northwesterly wind field
through the mid levels of the troposphere Sunday through Monday.
Also expect a deeply mixed boundary layer through this period, with
the exception being perhaps brief periods of reduced mixing on
Sunday night. Mean mixed layer winds on Sunday peak in the 30-40 kt
range and should be a good indicator of expected peak gusts although
could be briefly higher immediately behind the surface front
passage. RH will also be lower, probably approaching 30% or a bit
lower for a period on Sunday especially immediately behind the front
as temperatures will be initially warm but the airmass dry. This
could result in a tricky fire weather scenario with the wind shift,
increased gust speeds, and low RH...particularly for any early
weekend burns that may be left smoldering. Then, after the second
cold surge comes through early Monday morning, expected renewed
and even stronger wind gusts possibly on the order of 40-50 mph.
Also expect a chance for snow flurries to develop with a
relatively deep stratocu cloud layer likely to form at the top of
the boundary layer but below the inversion, and with lapse rates
supporting weak instability in this layer. Any flurries should end
by late in the day with winds also decreasing by sunset.

Temperatures warm for the remainder of the week as the cold airmass
shifts east. Will likely see a pretty strong gradient in
temperatures from west to east at least Tues/Wed as 850 T is
forecast to range a solid 10 degrees from SW to NE across the
forecast area on these days. Expect to climb well into the 40s and
approach the 50s by the end of the work week with dry weather likely
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Dry low levels in the atmosphere should lead to VFR conditions.
There is some concern for LLWS overnight due to a sharp nocturnal
inversion. Confidence is not high enough to mention in the
forecast but will monitor trends.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters



000
FXUS63 KTOP 061711
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1111 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A mid-level shortwave trough extended as far south as northeast
Kansas early this morning, resulting in a stratus cloud deck
skimming across far northern and far northeast Kansas. Some short-
range models are still suggesting some patchy fog may develop early
this morning near the KS/NE border as a result of the extra moisture
moving into the area with stratus deck.  This stratus deck combined
with some scattered mid-level clouds elsewhere across the region
will result in low temperatures in the 20s early this morning.
Models show this shortwave trough quickly exiting to the east this
morning with a weak ridge extending into the area this afternoon
into this evening. However, a weak embedded wave located over
Montana this morning should become a more well-defined trough over
the far Northern Plains this afternoon into this evening, deepening
and extending southward toward the area overnight into Sunday
morning. Model soundings show cloud cover scattering out later this
morning, with mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the day. With
surface low pressure to the north and surface high pressure to the
south today, winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon. These
winds combined with mostly sunny skies should aid in some warm air
advection and afternoon highs reaching into the mid to upper 40s
(possibly even around 50 degrees), with the coolest conditions in
north central Kansas where some snow pack still exists.  As the mid-
level trough approaches the area overnight tonight, expect winds to
start shifting to the west and northwest with some mid-level clouds
possibly moving in before sunrise. As a result, expect low
temperatures tonight to be a few degrees warmer in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A strong clipper system will be moving into the Great Lakes region
on Sunday with a powerful cold front moving south across the Plains
and into Kansas by mid day Sunday. A secondary cold surge moves
through very early Monday morning. Expect a strong pressure gradient
at the surface and strong uni-directional northwesterly wind field
through the mid levels of the troposphere Sunday through Monday.
Also expect a deeply mixed boundary layer through this period, with
the exception being perhaps brief periods of reduced mixing on
Sunday night. Mean mixed layer winds on Sunday peak in the 30-40 kt
range and should be a good indicator of expected peak gusts although
could be briefly higher immediately behind the surface front
passage. RH will also be lower, probably approaching 30% or a bit
lower for a period on Sunday especially immediately behind the front
as temperatures will be initially warm but the airmass dry. This
could result in a tricky fire weather scenario with the wind shift,
increased gust speeds, and low RH...particularly for any early
weekend burns that may be left smoldering. Then, after the second
cold surge comes through early Monday morning, expected renewed
and even stronger wind gusts possibly on the order of 40-50 mph.
Also expect a chance for snow flurries to develop with a
relatively deep stratocu cloud layer likely to form at the top of
the boundary layer but below the inversion, and with lapse rates
supporting weak instability in this layer. Any flurries should end
by late in the day with winds also decreasing by sunset.

Temperatures warm for the remainder of the week as the cold airmass
shifts east. Will likely see a pretty strong gradient in
temperatures from west to east at least Tues/Wed as 850 T is
forecast to range a solid 10 degrees from SW to NE across the
forecast area on these days. Expect to climb well into the 40s and
approach the 50s by the end of the work week with dry weather likely
into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Dry low levels in the atmosphere should lead to VFR conditions.
There is some concern for LLWS overnight due to a sharp nocturnal
inversion. Confidence is not high enough to mention in the
forecast but will monitor trends.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061701
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER AND THE WINDS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BETWEEN
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...EXPECT TO SEE
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
EVENING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION OVER THE SNOW FIELD CAN
DECREASE THE WINDS SPEEDS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO TRANSLATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
FIELD...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE OR HAVE
GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY DISTURBANCES THAT WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION OR FORCE
COLD FRONTS THROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMEST OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SNOW SHOULD MELT FIRST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR MUCH MORE
EASILY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL...ARE
ANTICIPATED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHERE SNOWPACK SHOULD REMAIN FOR
AT LEAST PART OF THE PERIOD.

ON SATURDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR WEST THIS FRONT WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE DRY WHEN IT PASSES BUT
HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES COOL IS THE PRIMARY UNANSWERED QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061701
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER AND THE WINDS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BETWEEN
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...EXPECT TO SEE
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
EVENING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION OVER THE SNOW FIELD CAN
DECREASE THE WINDS SPEEDS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO TRANSLATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
FIELD...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE OR HAVE
GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY DISTURBANCES THAT WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION OR FORCE
COLD FRONTS THROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMEST OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SNOW SHOULD MELT FIRST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR MUCH MORE
EASILY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL...ARE
ANTICIPATED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHERE SNOWPACK SHOULD REMAIN FOR
AT LEAST PART OF THE PERIOD.

ON SATURDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR WEST THIS FRONT WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE DRY WHEN IT PASSES BUT
HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES COOL IS THE PRIMARY UNANSWERED QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061701
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER AND THE WINDS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY BETWEEN
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVES OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...EXPECT TO SEE
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
EVENING UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION OVER THE SNOW FIELD CAN
DECREASE THE WINDS SPEEDS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE RELAXING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. BEGINS TO TRANSLATE
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM OVER THE EXTENSIVE SNOW
FIELD...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE OR HAVE
GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ANY DISTURBANCES THAT WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION OR FORCE
COLD FRONTS THROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SEEM LIKELY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE WARMEST OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
SNOW SHOULD MELT FIRST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR MUCH MORE
EASILY. COOLER TEMPERATURES...YET STILL ABOVE NORMAL...ARE
ANTICIPATED FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHERE SNOWPACK SHOULD REMAIN FOR
AT LEAST PART OF THE PERIOD.

ON SATURDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR WEST THIS FRONT WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE DRY WHEN IT PASSES BUT
HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES COOL IS THE PRIMARY UNANSWERED QUESTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT, A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS




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