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000
FXUS63 KTOP 311131
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
631 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Secondary cold front was moving across areas south of Interstate 35
this morning at 08Z. Area of stratus covered most of northeast and
east central Kansas while it was more scattered over north central
Kansas. Cloud deck extends into central Nebraska and the back edge
was moving south around 35 mph. Expect the clearing to occur prior
to sunrise north of I-70 and then continue south through mid
morning. Satellite trends and high resolution models continue to
show clouds breaking up some as they proceed south through the
morning hours.

Cold advection will continue through the day as cold high pressure
builds southward behind the cold front. Highs will be about 15
degrees below normal with readings in the middle 40s today. Winds
will remain gusty through the morning hours especially across
northeast and east central Kansas. The pressure gradient will relax
through the day as the surface high moves in decreasing winds from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Atmosphere will be slow to recover behind the cold surface high.
Despite south winds becoming gusty Saturday as a strong pressure
gradient develops over the region. Upper ridge axis moving east of
the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning brings decent mid level
isentropic upglide along with modest moisture, but inversion above
this should keep any precip in check in a still very dry low layer.
Winds will remain rather brisk under this cloud Saturday night for
lows around 15F above Friday night`s levels. Somewhat stronger warm
air advection takes place Sunday, and along with deeper mixing should
push highs back to near normal. With good insolation and 925mb winds
into the 30-40kt range, will need to monitor Wind Advisory
potential.

Deepening moisture with the approach of a longwave trough brings
increasing precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday night. At
this point Monday night appears to be the wettest period with the
trough`s passage, and with precipitable water values well above
normal, could see respectable rainfall amounts. Instability remains
meager but thunder mention will be maintained. Beyond Tuesday, the
remainder of the forecast remains dry with Pacific high pressure
only dropping highs back into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and
further modification for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR cigs are expected to clear the terminals around 13Z and
expect VFR conditions thereafter. Winds north around 14kts with
gusts around 24 kts at TOP and FOE will decrease to around 10 kts
after 20Z with light winds of 3 kts or less after 00Z Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53






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000
FXUS63 KDDC 311104
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS  OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.

A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE  EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AN SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON 24 HOUR
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TO 00Z THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
APPROACHES THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE GFS THIS
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
AT 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BASED MOISTURE AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND 850MB/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
HIGH THE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING/NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
WORK WEEK THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MID
TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATELLITE LOOP EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATING AN AREA OF STATUS
WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HRRR PICKED UP
ON THIS STATUS FAIRLY WELL AND MOVED IT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM
12Z TO 15Z THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE GENERAL TREND OF THE HRRR
HOWEVER DPROG/DT INDICATED A SLIGHTLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA
OF FOG THAN WHAT THE HRRR INDICATED. CLOUD BASES THIS MORNING
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL LEVEL. ONCE THIS FOG DISSIPATES...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WIND AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST
BY NOON AND THEN BY LATE DAY THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO
KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  31  59  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  53  33  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  40  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  55  37  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  27  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



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000
FXUS63 KGLD 310857
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE CHALLENGE FIRST THING THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PLAINS STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM ENOUGH
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE NO
CURRENT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND WINDS
INCREASE AS THEY BEGIN TO TURN FROM AN EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES AT MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SO WE WILL ADD RAIN SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA...
FROM HORACE, KS NORTHEAST TO ALMENA KS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE
FRONT COMPLETES ITS MOVEMENT OVER THE AREA THE SKY WILL START
CLEARING... WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A DROP IN
THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 09Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN...REMAINING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MID MORNING
BECM SSE 10-20KTS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY 00Z SAT 5-15KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310824
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS  OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.

A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE  EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AN SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. IMPROVING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BASED ON 24 HOUR
WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TO 00Z THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MORE HUMID AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTHWARD
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EJECTS FROM THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
APPROACHES THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON THE GFS THIS
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
AT 00Z MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME
BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT BASED MOISTURE AND THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT AND 850MB/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. ON TUESDAY NIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND GIVEN CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE
HIGH THE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
FREEZING/NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AFTER A COOL START TO THE
WORK WEEK THE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS MID
TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A POST FRONTAL DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WITH 1500 TO 3000 FT CEILINGS
WAS SPREADING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY IMPACT AREA TAFS AFTER 10 TO
12 UTC AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN
ABOUT 12 AND 15 UTC WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH INSOLATION THROUGH
THE MID MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  31  59  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  53  33  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  40  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  55  37  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  27  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310819
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Secondary cold front was moving across areas south of Interstate 35
this morning at 08Z. Area of stratus covered most of northeast and
east central Kansas while it was more scattered over north central
Kansas. Cloud deck extends into central Nebraska and the back edge
was moving south around 35 mph. Expect the clearing to occur prior
to sunrise north of I-70 and then continue south through mid
morning. Satellite trends and high resolution models continue to
show clouds breaking up some as they proceed south through the
morning hours.

Cold advection will continue through the day as cold high pressure
builds southward behind the cold front. Highs will be about 15
degrees below normal with readings in the middle 40s today. Winds
will remain gusty through the morning hours especially across
northeast and east central Kansas. The pressure gradient will relax
through the day as the surface high moves in decreasing winds from
west to east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Atmosphere will be slow to recover behind the cold surface high.
Despite south winds becoming gusty Saturday as a strong pressure
gradient develops over the region. Upper ridge axis moving east of
the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning brings decent mid level
isentropic upglide along with modest moisture, but inversion above
this should keep any precip in check in a still very dry low layer.
Winds will remain rather brisk under this cloud Saturday night for
lows around 15F above Friday night`s levels. Somewhat stronger warm
air advection takes place Sunday, and along with deeper mixing should
push highs back to near normal. With good insolation and 925mb winds
into the 30-40kt range, will need to monitor Wind Advisory
potential.

Deepening moisture with the approach of a longwave trough brings
increasing precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday night. At
this point Monday night appears to be the wettest period with the
trough`s passage, and with precipitable water values well above
normal, could see respectable rainfall amounts. Instability remains
meager but thunder mention will be maintained. Beyond Tuesday, the
remainder of the forecast remains dry with Pacific high pressure
only dropping highs back into the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday and
further modification for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Timing of MVFR stratus currently north of the terminals is expected to
arrive by 06Z. Satellite trends and short term guidance is showing
signs of the stratus becoming scattered by 10Z as it continues to
track south with the cold front. Conditions should improve to VFR
shortly after sunrise. Gusty northerly winds persist through the
afternoon at KTOP/KFOE before weakening as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
KSZ011-012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Bowen





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000
FXUS63 KICT 310816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
TODAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH COLD
DRY AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PREMIUM RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER KANSAS...HOWEVER
THE COOL AIR AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH OUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY
AS AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES AND SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG AND COULD REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SETUP OVER THE ROCKIES FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
TO THE REGION AS GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HEARTLAND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SURGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT
AND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY CHANGE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS TO RUN WITH
A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH KICT AND KSLN FOR MVFR CIGS.
MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT KCNU AND WILL RUN WITH A
PREVAILING GROUP THERE. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
CIGS WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS. BY THE LATE MORNING ALL SITES
SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  25  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  25  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  24  52  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        48  23  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         46  27  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  28  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  24  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  24  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  22  52  37 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  21  50  37 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            46  21  50  37 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  22  51  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310809
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
309 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR WINNIPEG THIS MORNING
WITH AN EXTENSION RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN  HIGH PLAINS OF
TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. AN OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM KANSAS FROM EAST TO WEST WITH A 150 MILE WIDE BAND OF MVFR
STRATUS FROM WESTERN SD THROUGH NE KANSAS. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS STRATUS MOVED THROUGH CONCORDIA BY 1 AM CDT. AHEAD (WEST) OF
THIS STRATUS NORTH WINDS WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH HOMOGENEOUS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S WERE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE AMOUNT OF
STRATUS THAT MATERIALIZES AS WELL AS THE EXTEND OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. WITH SIX HOURS TO GO WITH INCREASING COLD
AIR ADVECTION, PLENTY OF TIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EXISTS WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES AWAY FROM MEETING THE FREEZING
POINT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAST LIKELY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND HIRES WRF RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SOUTHER PORTIONS  OF THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE, HOWEVER WE WON`T DISCOUNT THE COLDER MOS PRODUCTS WITH
LEAN TO THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST OF THE WARNED AREA.

A MUCH COLDER DAY IS IN STORE GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL BE
ONGOING THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE THROUGH THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT
EXCEED MID 40S THROUGH THE SMOKY HILL REGION. LOW TO POSSIBLY EVEN
UPPER 50S MAY BE ACHIEVABLE FARTHER WEST IN PLACES LIKE SYRACUSE
ELKHART AND MEADE. AS THE COLD RIDGE AXIS SETTLES FARTHER EAST OVER
THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT, THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE  EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
OF RADIATING OUT TO WELL BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE OKLAHOMA
LINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY AFTER 9 PM AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF GARDEN CITY TO THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE. THE FREEZE
WARNING WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE WAKEENEY, DODGE CITY AND
ASHLAND.

A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION,
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY, WHERE AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH LOCALLY. ONLY SMALL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DIGHTON, SCOTT CITY
AND WAKEENEY. THIS IS NOT ATYPICAL IN THE COOL SEASON SINCE
HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TENDS TO BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST IN KANSAS TYPICALLY REQUIRES SLOW
MOVING AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THESE WILL NOT BE SEVERE. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY DESPITE THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. BY THIS TIME, THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
(THERMAL GRADIENT) WILL HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A POST FRONTAL DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WITH 1500 TO 3000 FT CEILINGS
WAS SPREADING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY IMPACT AREA TAFS AFTER 10 TO
12 UTC AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN
ABOUT 12 AND 15 UTC WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH INSOLATION THROUGH
THE MID MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  31  59  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  53  33  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  40  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  55  37  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  27  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KICT 310806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TODAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND COMBINED
WITH COLD DRY AIR WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PREMIUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP OVER KANSAS...HOWEVER THE COOL AIR AND WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR BRISK WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH OUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES
AND SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND COULD REACH WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SETUP OVER THE ROCKIES FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN/ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
TO THE REGION AS GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE HEARTLAND.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SURGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT
AND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY CHANGE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS TO RUN WITH
A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH KICT AND KSLN FOR MVFR CIGS.
MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT KCNU AND WILL RUN WITH A
PREVAILING GROUP THERE. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
CIGS WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS. BY THE LATE MORNING ALL SITES
SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  25  53  40 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  25  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  24  52  38 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        48  23  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   50  25  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         46  27  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      47  28  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          46  24  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  24  53  39 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  22  52  37 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  21  50  37 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            46  21  50  37 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    48  22  51  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
148 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE CHALLENGE FIRST THING THIS MORNING IS TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
LOW CLOUDS INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SECOND CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND PLAINS STATES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEPENING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING WARM ENOUGH
UNDER THE CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE NO
CURRENT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND WINDS
INCREASE AS THEY BEGIN TO TURN FROM AN EAST/NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND A LEE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH THE
INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
UP INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY...AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE
SOMEWHAT DUE TO A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES AT MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SINCE MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN REMAINS LIMITED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 09Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN...REMAINING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MID MORNING
BECM SSE 10-20KTS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY 00Z SAT 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 310609
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
109 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z MODEL
OUTPUT HAS COME IN A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 29-32 DEGREE
RANGE FROM CENTRAL INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE NAM MODEL SHOWS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CLOUDS
DEVELOP AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE
COLDER SOLUTION. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE WILL BE CONVERTING MOST OF
OUR FREEZE WATCH INTO A FREEZE WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY, THE CORE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST. WE WILL SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BACKED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
ALONG I-70 TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY AFTER 9 PM AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF GARDEN CITY TO THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE. THE FREEZE
WARNING WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE WAKEENEY, DODGE CITY AND
ASHLAND.

A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION,
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY, WHERE AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH LOCALLY. ONLY SMALL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DIGHTON, SCOTT CITY
AND WAKEENEY. THIS IS NOT ATYPICAL IN THE COOL SEASON SINCE
HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TENDS TO BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST IN KANSAS TYPICALLY REQUIRES SLOW
MOVING AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THESE WILL NOT BE SEVERE. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY DESPITE THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. BY THIS TIME, THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
(THERMAL GRADIENT) WILL HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A POST FRONTAL DECK OF MVFR STRATUS WITH 1500 TO 3000 FT CEILINGS
WAS SPREADING SOUTHWEST FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY IMPACT AREA TAFS AFTER 10 TO
12 UTC AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. A WINDOW OF IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN
ABOUT 12 AND 15 UTC WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH INSOLATION THROUGH
THE MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  50  31  59  43 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  53  33  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  40  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  55  37  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  45  27  53  41 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  29  55  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KICT 310443
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLDER
CANADIAN AIRMASS CAN BE SEEN PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRATUS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. STRATUS MAY HOLD TOGETHER
BEHIND THE FRONT...PUSHING INTO POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FOR MAYBE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ADVERTISED MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY. A FEW OF OUR NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL KANSAS MAY HAVE A BORDERLINE OR NEAR FREEZE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A HARD FREEZE WITH PROGGED LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE 20S.

LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT...
BECOMING VERY GUSTY BY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY ACHIEVING ADVISORY
LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE VERY SLIGHT WITH INITIAL
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN COMING UP FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...SO A BIT MORE WEIGHT PUT TOWARD THIS
MODEL. THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LOOKS MOST LIKELY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS
TARGETED. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE NICE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SURGING SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT
AND WILL AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONLY CHANGE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS WAS TO RUN WITH
A TEMPO GROUP FOR BOTH KICT AND KSLN FOR MVFR CIGS.
MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT KCNU AND WILL RUN WITH A
PREVAILING GROUP THERE. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
CIGS WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS. BY THE LATE MORNING ALL SITES
SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    36  50  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  47  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          33  46  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        35  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  51  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  46  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  47  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          33  45  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       33  45  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     38  48  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         36  46  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            36  45  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    37  47  23  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 310442
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The short term period of the forecast will be noted by a significant
change in the weather pattern. Water vapor imagery showed one
embedded shortwave exiting eastward into Missouri, which helped to
push an area of surface low pressure and associated weak cold front
through the area. A second embedded shortwave was located just west
of the Great Lakes, and this wave is forecast to dive southward
toward the Ohio River valley tonight through Friday.

A tight pressure gradient developed over the forecast area today as
the surface low shifted east of the area. Despite breezy northwesterly
winds gusting upwards of 20-30mph, abundant sunshine and limited caa
helped to boost afternoon temperatures into the middle 60s to low
70s. Surface analysis showed a secondary cold front associated with
this surface low draped across southern Nebraska this afternoon, and
this front is progged to track southward over the forecast area late
this afternoon through this evening. Models show the tight pressure
gradient remaining in place over the region tonight through Friday
morning, so northerly winds will continue to gust upwards of
15-25mph through the overnight hours. Once the secondary cold front
passes to the south, these breezy northerly winds will support
decent caa advection tonight through Friday. While some low clouds
should develop early Friday morning as a result of the second
embedded wave passing just east of the forecast area, low
temperatures are expected to plummet into the 30s tonight. These low
temperatures combined with the breezy winds will lead to Friday
morning wind chill values in the 20s.

These breezy northerly winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours on Friday as surface high pressure advances into the
central U.S. However, they`ll persist enough for caa to continue
through much of the day with high temperatures only warming into the
40s, which is nearly 15F-20F degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday Night, the center of the surface ridge will build southward
across eastern KS and MO. Clear skies and light winds with a cold
and dry airmass in place will allow low temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 20s. Expect a widespread hard freeze. Therefore, a
freeze warning will be in effect Friday night and through 800 AM
on Saturday.

Saturday, will be cool with highs struggling into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Winds will become southerly through the afternoon hours
ad the surface ridge pushes east towards the MS river valley.

Saturday Night through Sunday, an upper level trough across the
western US will move east into the central Rockies. An upstream
upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern plains and MS
river valley. A lee trough will deepen across the high plains
causing the low-level winds to become southerly. High temperatures
will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

Sunday Night, the upper level trough will approach the high plains
by Monday morning. The LLJ will begin to transport moisture northward
across the plains and Midwest. The moisture return Sunday night
may increase the isentropic lift enough for some isolated showers
and elevated thunderstorms to develop.

Monday through Tuesday, The upper level trough will move east across
the central and southern plains. The H5 trough will gradually shear
out as the northern stream H5 jet increases across southern Canada
and the northern plains. There should continue to be sufficient
ascent and deeper moisture advection for widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The showers should end from northwest to
southeast across the CWA late Tuesday afternoon into the evening
hours as a surface cold front will move southeast across the CWA.
Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will see
the clouds decrease from west to east across the CWA and highs will
be slightly cooler behind the front.

Tuesday night through Thursday, the southern sections of the H5
trough will become a closed upper low across western TX. The
stronger ascent and moisture return will remain well south of the
CWA. Expect dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Timing of MVFR stratus currently north of the terminals is expected to
arrive by 06Z. Satellite trends and short term guidance is showing
signs of the stratus becoming scattered by 10Z as it continues to
track south with the cold front. Conditions should improve to VFR
shortly after sunrise. Gusty northerly winds persist through the
afternoon at KTOP/KFOE before weakening as high pressure builds
in.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen








000
FXUS63 KGLD 310434
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ADJUST WINDS AND TEMPS BASED OFF TREND
OF LAST COUPLE HOURS OF OBS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 10 MPH OR
LESS AND HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
NICELY AFTER SUNSET WITH AREA SEEING 40S TO THE WEST UP TO THE
L50S TO THE EAST. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES STILL EXPECTED BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF STRATUS DECK BY TOMORROW MORNING...STILL LOOKING FOR
AREAS OBS TO SHOW DROP TOWARDS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 09Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN...REMAINING THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120-150. WINDS VARIABLE THRU MID MORNING
BECM SSE 10-20KTS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY 00Z SAT 5-15KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 310214
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
814 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 814 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE TO ZONES ISSUED TO ADJUST WINDS AND TEMPS BASED OFF TREND
OF LAST COUPLE HOURS OF OBS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 10 MPH OR
LESS AND HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED
NICELY AFTER SUNSET WITH AREA SEEING 40S TO THE WEST UP TO THE
L50S TO THE EAST. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES STILL EXPECTED BEFORE
ARRIVAL OF STRATUS DECK BY TOMORROW MORNING...STILL LOOKING FOR
AREAS OBS TO SHOW DROP TOWARDS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 06Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN AND REMAINS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120. WINDS BEGINNING NORTHERLY
10-20KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NE BY 04Z-06Z AT 5-10KTS...THEN ESE
5-15KTS FROM 15Z-16Z FRIDAY ONWARD. KGLD WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25KTS
AFT 19Z FRIDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 302351
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
651 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z MODEL
OUTPUT HAS COME IN A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 29-32 DEGREE
RANGE FROM CENTRAL INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE NAM MODEL SHOWS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CLOUDS
DEVELOP AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE
COLDER SOLUTION. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE WILL BE CONVERTING MOST OF
OUR FREEZE WATCH INTO A FREEZE WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY, THE CORE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST. WE WILL SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BACKED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
ALONG I-70 TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY AFTER 9 PM AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF GARDEN CITY TO THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE. THE FREEZE
WARNING WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE WAKEENEY, DODGE CITY AND
ASHLAND.

A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION,
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY, WHERE AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH LOCALLY. ONLY SMALL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DIGHTON, SCOTT CITY
AND WAKEENEY. THIS IS NOT ATYPICAL IN THE COOL SEASON SINCE
HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TENDS TO BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST IN KANSAS TYPICALLY REQUIRES SLOW
MOVING AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THESE WILL NOT BE SEVERE. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY DESPITE THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. BY THIS TIME, THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
(THERMAL GRADIENT) WILL HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 09Z. WE WILL FORECAST 3SM
LIGHT FOG AT DDC AND GCK FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WITH IFR
CEILING 500-1000 FEET BROKEN-OVERCAST. THE STRATUS WILL ERODE
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST
TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  50  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  30  53  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  34  58  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  55  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  28  45  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  36  51  29  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302341
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
641 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The short term period of the forecast will be noted by a significant
change in the weather pattern. Water vapor imagery showed one
embedded shortwave exiting eastward into Missouri, which helped to
push an area of surface low pressure and associated weak cold front
through the area. A second embedded shortwave was located just west
of the Great Lakes, and this wave is forecast to dive southward
toward the Ohio River valley tonight through Friday.

A tight pressure gradient developed over the forecast area today as
the surface low shifted east of the area. Despite breezy northwesterly
winds gusting upwards of 20-30mph, abundant sunshine and limited caa
helped to boost afternoon temperatures into the middle 60s to low
70s. Surface analysis showed a secondary cold front associated with
this surface low draped across southern Nebraska this afternoon, and
this front is progged to track southward over the forecast area late
this afternoon through this evening. Models show the tight pressure
gradient remaining in place over the region tonight through Friday
morning, so northerly winds will continue to gust upwards of
15-25mph through the overnight hours. Once the secondary cold front
passes to the south, these breezy northerly winds will support
decent caa advection tonight through Friday. While some low clouds
should develop early Friday morning as a result of the second
embedded wave passing just east of the forecast area, low
temperatures are expected to plummet into the 30s tonight. These low
temperatures combined with the breezy winds will lead to Friday
morning wind chill values in the 20s.

These breezy northerly winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours on Friday as surface high pressure advances into the
central U.S. However, they`ll persist enough for caa to continue
through much of the day with high temperatures only warming into the
40s, which is nearly 15F-20F degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday Night, the center of the surface ridge will build southward
across eastern KS and MO. Clear skies and light winds with a cold
and dry airmass in place will allow low temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 20s. Expect a widespread hard freeze. Therefore, a
freeze warning will be in effect Friday night and through 800 AM
on Saturday.

Saturday, will be cool with highs struggling into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Winds will become southerly through the afternoon hours
ad the surface ridge pushes east towards the MS river valley.

Saturday Night through Sunday, an upper level trough across the
western US will move east into the central Rockies. An upstream
upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern plains and MS
river valley. A lee trough will deepen across the high plains
causing the low-level winds to become southerly. High temperatures
will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

Sunday Night, the upper level trough will approach the high plains
by Monday morning. The LLJ will begin to transport moisture northward
across the plains and Midwest. The moisture return Sunday night
may increase the isentropic lift enough for some isolated showers
and elevated thunderstorms to develop.

Monday through Tuesday, The upper level trough will move east across
the central and southern plains. The H5 trough will gradually shear
out as the northern stream H5 jet increases across southern Canada
and the northern plains. There should continue to be sufficient
ascent and deeper moisture advection for widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The showers should end from northwest to
southeast across the CWA late Tuesday afternoon into the evening
hours as a surface cold front will move southeast across the CWA.
Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will see
the clouds decrease from west to east across the CWA and highs will
be slightly cooler behind the front.

Tuesday night through Thursday, the southern sections of the H5
trough will become a closed upper low across western TX. The
stronger ascent and moisture return will remain well south of the
CWA. Expect dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR prevails for the first few hours of period as focus turns
towards a secondary cold front and area of MVFR stratus pushing
south over eastern Nebraska. Confidence in timing for MVFR cigs is
decent between 2 kft and 2500 ft arriving near 6Z. Sustained
northerly winds around 10 kts this evening increase overnight with
gusts up to 28 kts through tomorrow afternoon. MVFR deck is
expected to clear by 14Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen







000
FXUS63 KICT 302336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLDER
CANADIAN AIRMASS CAN BE SEEN PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRATUS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. STRATUS MAY HOLD TOGETHER
BEHIND THE FRONT...PUSHING INTO POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FOR MAYBE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ADVERTISED MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY. A FEW OF OUR NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL KANSAS MAY HAVE A BORDERLINE OR NEAR FREEZE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A HARD FREEZE WITH PROGGED LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE 20S.

LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT...
BECOMING VERY GUSTY BY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY ACHIEVING ADVISORY
LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE VERY SLIGHT WITH INITIAL
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN COMING UP FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...SO A BIT MORE WEIGHT PUT TOWARD THIS
MODEL. THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LOOKS MOST LIKELY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS
TARGETED. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE NICE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME LOWER CIGS FOR SE KS LATE
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER POWERFUL UPPER WAVE IS DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO SPILL
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA
AND MAY AFFECT EASTERN KS AFTER 06Z. AT THIS POINT KCNU WOULD HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THESE MVFR CIGS WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THEY REMAIN ABOVE IFR LEVELS. BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE BACK IN PLACE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    36  50  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  47  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          33  46  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        35  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  51  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  46  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  47  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          33  45  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       33  45  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     38  48  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         36  46  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            36  45  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    37  47  23  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302324
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ZONE FORECAST MAINLY TO ADJUST TEMPS FROM LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS STILL STEADY IN MOST SPOTS 10-20MPH WITH SOME
LOCAL HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE AS
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. STILL
SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVER AREA SO WILL STILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
INTO THE EVENING. EAST SIDE OF APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS STILL HAS
LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL WORK INTO AREA BY 12Z
FRIDAY ON EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW...SO FOR NOW PATCHY FOG AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER REMAIN IN FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MIX OF VFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. KGLD/KMCK WILL SEE SKC THRU 06Z-10Z...THEN LOW LEVEL
STRATUS BUILDS IN AND REMAINS THRU THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 2-3SM IN FOG. BY 19Z-20Z
FRIDAY...VFR WITH SCT120. WINDS BEGINNING NORTHERLY
10-20KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NE BY 04Z-06Z AT 5-10KTS...THEN ESE
5-15KTS FROM 15Z-16Z FRIDAY ONWARD. KGLD WILL SEE GUSTS TO 25KTS
AFT 19Z FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302055
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
355 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The short term period of the forecast will be noted by a significant
change in the weather pattern. Water vapor imagery showed one
embedded shortwave exiting eastward into Missouri, which helped to
push an area of surface low pressure and associated weak cold front
through the area. A second embedded shortwave was located just west
of the Great Lakes, and this wave is forecast to dive southward
toward the Ohio River valley tonight through Friday.

A tight pressure gradient developed over the forecast area today as
the surface low shifted east of the area. Despite breezy northwesterly
winds gusting upwards of 20-30mph, abundant sunshine and limited caa
helped to boost afternoon temperatures into the middle 60s to low
70s. Surface analysis showed a secondary cold front associated with
this surface low draped across southern Nebraska this afternoon, and
this front is progged to track southward over the forecast area late
this afternoon through this evening. Models show the tight pressure
gradient remaining in place over the region tonight through Friday
morning, so northerly winds will continue to gust upwards of
15-25mph through the overnight hours. Once the secondary cold front
passes to the south, these breezy northerly winds will support
decent caa advection tonight through Friday. While some low clouds
should develop early Friday morning as a result of the second
embedded wave passing just east of the forecast area, low
temperatures are expected to plummet into the 30s tonight. These low
temperatures combined with the breezy winds will lead to Friday
morning wind chill values in the 20s.

These breezy northerly winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon hours on Friday as surface high pressure advances into the
central U.S. However, they`ll persist enough for caa to continue
through much of the day with high temperatures only warming into the
40s, which is nearly 15F-20F degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday Night, the center of the surface ridge will build southward
across eastern KS and MO. Clear skies and light winds with a cold
and dry airmass in place will allow low temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 20s. Expect a widespread hard freeze. Therefore, a
freeze warning will be in effect Friday night and through 800 AM
on Saturday.

Saturday, will be cool with highs struggling into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Winds will become southerly through the afternoon hours
ad the surface ridge pushes east towards the MS river valley.

Saturday Night through Sunday, an upper level trough across the
western US will move east into the central Rockies. An upstream
upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern plains and MS
river valley. A lee trough will deepen across the high plains
causing the low-level winds to become southerly. High temperatures
will warm into the lower to mid 60s.

Sunday Night, the upper level trough will approach the high plains
by Monday morning. The LLJ will begin to transport moisture northward
across the plains and Midwest. The moisture return Sunday night
may increase the isentropic lift enough for some isolated showers
and elevated thunderstorms to develop.

Monday through Tuesday, The upper level trough will move east across
the central and southern plains. The H5 trough will gradually shear
out as the northern stream H5 jet increases across southern Canada
and the northern plains. There should continue to be sufficient
ascent and deeper moisture advection for widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The showers should end from northwest to
southeast across the CWA late Tuesday afternoon into the evening
hours as a surface cold front will move southeast across the CWA.
Highs on Monday will reach the lower to mid 60s. Tuesday will see
the clouds decrease from west to east across the CWA and highs will
be slightly cooler behind the front.


Tuesday night through Thursday, the southern sections of the H5
trough will become a closed upper low across western TX. The
stronger ascent and moisture return will remain well south of the
CWA. Expect dry conditions with high temperatures warming into the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions for most of the first half of the TAF period
at all terminals and generally stronger winds. The challenge is more
toward the later half of the period when morning stratus becomes a
factor over the region. Confidence is low on whether this will be
enough to cause BKN CIGS, so left that out for now. However, after
day break, any CIGS that form should begin to scatter out by late
morning.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KDDC 302053
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
353 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z MODEL
OUTPUT HAS COME IN A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 29-32 DEGREE
RANGE FROM CENTRAL INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE NAM MODEL SHOWS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CLOUDS
DEVELOP AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE
COLDER SOLUTION. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE WILL BE CONVERTING MOST OF
OUR FREEZE WATCH INTO A FREEZE WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY, THE CORE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST. WE WILL SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BACKED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
ALONG I-70 TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN
SLOWLY AFTER 9 PM AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO MOST OF WESTERN
KANSAS EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF GARDEN CITY TO THE COLORADO
BORDER. THE LIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE. THE FREEZE WARNING
WAS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE WAKEENEY, DODGE CITY AND ASHLAND.

A WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION,
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY, WHERE AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1 INCH LOCALLY. ONLY SMALL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS DIGHTON, SCOTT CITY
AND WAKEENEY. THIS IS NOT ATYPICAL IN THE COOL SEASON SINCE
HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT TENDS TO BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS. HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST IN KANSAS TYPICALLY REQUIRES SLOW
MOVING AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THESE WILL NOT BE SEVERE. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MONDAY DESPITE THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. BY THIS TIME, THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
(THERMAL GRADIENT) WILL HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  52  31  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  30  52  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  34  57  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  30  46  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  35  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046-064>066-078>081-088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KTOP 302032
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
332 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

The mid/upper level shortwave responsible for the showers and
thunderstorms this morning is currently moving over central MO this
afternoon and evening. Dry mid level air and subsidence behind this
wave has contributed to mostly clear skies. A strong low level jet
on the backside of the system has begun to overspread the area, and
will cause an increase in winds once they shift to the north. These
strong winds will filter in colder temperatures with lows expected
to range from the upper 30s in SW MO to the low 30s along the IA
state line. A combination of the wind and cold air means wind chills
drop as low as 20 degrees for northern MO by sunrise. The gusty
winds also keep the boundary layer somewhat mixed, and this should
limit the formation of frost. An area of stratus located over SD
will drop southward and pass through briefly tonight before dry air
over takes the region and scatters the clouds out by tomorrow
morning. Temperatures during the day will struggle to reach the mid
40s, and wind chills stay in the 30s. High pressure will then start
to build in from the north in the afternoon, which will cause a
gradual decrease in winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Friday Night, the center of the surface ridge will build southward
across eastern KS and MO. Clear skies and light winds with a cold
and dry airmass in place will allow low temperatures to drop into
the lower to mid 20s. Expect a widespread hard freeze across the
entire CWA. Therefore, a freeze warning will be in effect Tonight
and through 800 AM on Saturday.

Saturday, will be cool with highs struggling into the mid to upper
40s. Expect light winds through the day as the surface ridge
pushes east towards the MS river valley.

Saturday Night through Sunday, an upper level trough across the
western US will move east into the central Rockies. An upstream
upper level ridge will amplify across the eastern plains and MS
river valley. A lee trough will deepen across the high plains
causing the low-level winds to become southerly. High temperatures
will warm into the mid 50s east to to near 60 west.

Sunday Night, the upper level trough will approach the high plains
by Monday morning. The LLJ will begin to transport deeper moisture
northward across the plains and Midwest. The moisture return
Sunday night may increase the isentropic lift enough for isolated
showers and elevated thunderstorms to develop across the western
and central counties of the CWA

Monday through Tuesday Night, The upper level trough will move east across
the central and southern plains into the mid MS river valley. The H5
trough will gradually shear out as the northern stream H5 jet
increases across southern Canada and the northern plains. There
should continue to be sufficient ascent and deeper moisture
advection for widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. The
showers should end from northwest to southeast across the CWA Tuesday
evening as a surface cold front will move southeast across the
CWA through Tuesday night. Highs on Monday will reach the upper
50s to mid 60s. Tuesday night into early Wednesday the clouds will
decrease from northwest to southeast across the CWA and highs will
be slightly cooler behind the front.


Wednesday through Thursday, the southern sections of the H5
trough will become a closed upper low across western TX. The
stronger ascent and moisture return will remain south of the
CWA. Expect dry conditions with high temperatures remaining in
the upper 50s east to lower to mid 60s west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions for most of the first half of the TAF period
at all terminals and generally stronger winds. The challenge is more
toward the later half of the period when morning stratus becomes a
factor over the region. Confidence is low on whether this will be
enough to cause BKN CIGS, so left that out for now. However, after
day break, any CIGS that form should begin to scatter out by late
morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ025-
057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KDDC 302011
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI
THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE HAD PUSHED A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND IT. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH COLDER AIR
CONTINUING TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 12Z MODEL
OUTPUT HAS COME IN A LITTLE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 29-32 DEGREE
RANGE FROM CENTRAL INTO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

THE NAM MODEL SHOWS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER CLOUDS
DEVELOP AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE
COLDER SOLUTION. WITH THAT IN MIND, WE WILL BE CONVERTING MOST OF
OUR FREEZE WATCH INTO A FREEZE WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY, THE CORE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDWEST. WE WILL SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BACKED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
ALONG I-70 TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BASED ON CLOUD COVER
AND THE 900 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
HOW LONG THE STATUS LINGERS AND WHERE IT WILL BE LONGER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG
THE STATUS WILL LINGER AND BASED ON THE ECMWF, GFS, NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WESTERN KANSAS. DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS.
GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S
WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 AND GOOD COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND THEN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL
DRAW MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  52  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  30  52  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  34  57  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  34  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  30  46  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
P28  35  53  29  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ TO 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/
FRIDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066-079-081-090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GERARD
SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD INVOLVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

STRONG RETURN FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. EXPECTING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
MAY ALLOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AIR MAY
EDGE IN FROM THE EAST AND THIS WOULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT. MORE
CONFIDENT IN A POSSIBLE STRATUS EVENT THAN FOG. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
AND PERSISTENCE WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SATURDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES SO NUDGED SATURDAY
HIGHS DOWN. WITH A STRONG MORNING INVERSION AND LESS MIXING
EXPECTED...COOL WAS THE WAY TO GO.

THE MAIN ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING
AND EXITS THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST GUIDANCE
TRENDED TOWARDS A DRY SOLUTION AND WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION
ALOFT...THINK THE DRY SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. MODELS STILL
DEVELOP PRECIPITATION ON BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT NOW
CONFINE THIS PRECIP AREA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO BEFORE BRINGING IT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...LIGHT
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED. A COLD FRONT SHALL MOVE
THROUGH...BRINGING A RETURN TO NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN. WITH A LARGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WARMER
WEATHER IS AGAIN ASSURED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
REAPPEAR BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KICT 301948
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLDER
CANADIAN AIRMASS CAN BE SEEN PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STRATUS NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. STRATUS MAY HOLD TOGETHER
BEHIND THE FRONT...PUSHING INTO POTENTIALLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...FOR MAYBE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ADVERTISED MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE CANADIAN AIRMASS
WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY. A FEW OF OUR NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL KANSAS MAY HAVE A BORDERLINE OR NEAR FREEZE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A HARD FREEZE WITH PROGGED LOW TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN IN THE 20S.

LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A
SLOW-MOVING POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT...
BECOMING VERY GUSTY BY AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY ACHIEVING ADVISORY
LEVELS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE VERY SLIGHT WITH INITIAL
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RETURN COMING UP FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL ADVANCE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH...SO A BIT MORE WEIGHT PUT TOWARD THIS
MODEL. THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LOOKS MOST LIKELY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS
TARGETED. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY TURN OUT TO BE NICE
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
PROMOTING STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...A FEW LOW CLOUDS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    36  50  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  47  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          33  46  25  51 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        35  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  51  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         31  46  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      32  47  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          33  45  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       33  45  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     38  48  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         36  46  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            36  45  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    37  47  23  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301920
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
120 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE ROCKIES.

H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN
SENSIBLE WX CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT...THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE KS AND
COLORADO BORDER AND HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY ACCORDINGLY. WHILE AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT DRIER AIR BACKING INTO THE AREA IN THE
EARLY MORNING...UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATED A FAVORABLE HYDROLAPSE
RATE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW
FREEZING...POTENTIALLY BACK DOWN TO HARD FREEZE IN A FEW SPOTS
AROUND MCK AND HLC SHOULD DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA A BIT
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.

AS SFC HIGH RETREATS ON FRIDAY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE INCREASING WINDS...COMBINED WITH A
COLD AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL CREATE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TOWARD SUNSET. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY PLANNED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO DRESS A BIT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KICT 301741
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER...ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IS DRAGGING A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: A FREEZE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.

AN EXTREMELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN COVERS NORTH AMERICA WITH A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP WAVE CURVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN TO THE GULF COAST KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREAS UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. WITH THE WAVE
UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THE ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...EXTENDING FROM THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY. SUCH A STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LOW FLOW REGIME WILL
DRIVE A CANADIAN AIRMASS ALMOST DUE SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE
KANSAS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SECOND AND ALMOST EQUALLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL
EXTEND FROM MONTANA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER-DECK WAVE
CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST ON MONDAY THIS WOULD INDUCE RAPID LOWER-
DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
INJECT MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...TO
MISSOURI. THE RESULT IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE RAINS ENDING IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
PROMOTING STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...A FEW LOW CLOUDS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  37  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  35  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  36  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  37  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  34  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          68  34  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       68  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  39  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  37  48  23 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  37  47  23 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  38  49  24 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 301741
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER...ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IS DRAGGING A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: A FREEZE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.

AN EXTREMELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN COVERS NORTH AMERICA WITH A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP WAVE CURVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN TO THE GULF COAST KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREAS UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. WITH THE WAVE
UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THE ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...EXTENDING FROM THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY. SUCH A STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LOW FLOW REGIME WILL
DRIVE A CANADIAN AIRMASS ALMOST DUE SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE
KANSAS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SECOND AND ALMOST EQUALLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL
EXTEND FROM MONTANA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER-DECK WAVE
CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST ON MONDAY THIS WOULD INDUCE RAPID LOWER-
DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
INJECT MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...TO
MISSOURI. THE RESULT IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE RAINS ENDING IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES ARE
PROMOTING STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...A FEW LOW CLOUDS
COULD DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF
THE AREA.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  37  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  35  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  36  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  37  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  34  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          68  34  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       68  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  39  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  37  48  23 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            69  37  47  23 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  38  49  24 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, HEADING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN STATES, AS
WELL AS A COLD FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE WAS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING WEAK, BUT PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION, WHICH WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND PROVIDED BY
OTHERWISE EFFICIENT, FULL INSOLATION. THE MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE SPATIALLY THIS AFTERNOON; GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70 FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
LIMITED SURFACE MIXING THAT OCCURS, BUT DROP OFF RAPIDLY AROUND 5 PM
TO LIGHT AS THE SUN ANGLE RAPIDLY DECLINES.

THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY MAY CROSS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FREEZE WARNING REQUIREMENTS. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
SHOWS THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 15 UTC
FRIDAY WITH A VERY SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE MOS CONSENSUS INDICATES COOLER
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, WE WILL
NOT UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT RATHER WAIT FOR
FOLLOW UP RUNS TO BETTER CHOOSE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BASED ON CLOUD COVER
AND THE 900 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
HOW LONG THE STATUS LINGERS AND WHERE IT WILL BE LONGER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG
THE STATUS WILL LINGER AND BASED ON THE ECMWF, GFS, NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WESTERN KANSAS. DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS.
GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S
WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 AND GOOD COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND THEN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL
DRAW MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  33  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  68  36  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  70  35  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  67  32  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  37  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066-079-081-090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Somewhat complex upper troughing was moving southeast through the
Central Plains early this morning with rather widespread area of
higher potential vorticity aloft. Despite OAX and TOP 0Z soundings
showing dewpoint depressions of at least 10C throughout the
troposphere, isolated convection developed ahead of the trough in
southeast Nebraska in rather steep mid level lapse rates. As the
trough continues southeast, hard to rule out similar activity
developing in the local area. Will keep chances rather small for
most locations, with some mention in far eastern locations mainly
this morning as the trough exits. Have opted to keep thunder mention
out given quite limited coverage so far, but could see a strike or
two. Falling pressures ahead of a weak surface low with this upper
trough and some mid cloud keeping temps up, with recent 9 degree
jump up at MHK. Continued low level warm air advection into the
morning hours should counteract later day modest cold air advection
as mixing depths increase for a slightly warmer and noticeably
windier day than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

Evening hours see clear skies and weakening winds, but stronger cold
surge comes south overnight with an increase in north winds and some
stratus potential as secondary upper trough rotates south out of
southern Canada. Temps fall back to near freezing levels in the
north, in areas that experienced similar values Wednesday morning
so at this point have no plans for headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Canadian airmass continues to be driven southward on the back
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes on Friday. Highs
will struggle to rise into the lower to middle 40s. As center of
the surface high moves over western Missouri, temperatures quickly
fall below freezing in the later evening hours and drop into the
20s across the area by early Saturday. Although most area growers
have ended their growing season, giving some consideration to the
last few warm weeks at the end of the season, will issue what
will be the last freeze warning for the year in the remaining
counties that have not yet had a hard freeze. With quick return to
warm advection on Saturday, should make it into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night not as cold with warm
advection continuing and southerly surface winds keeping lows
around 40. Warming trend should bring highs Sunday afternoon back
into the 60s.

Rain chances could start with some light rain in warm air
advection regime overnight Sunday night into Monday, but better
chances come in the morning hours on Monday as lift from
approaching upper wave interacts with moisture streaming into the
area from the south southwest. Rain gets pushes southeast quickly
however, and will keep a short window of better rain chances
before moving southeast. EC is a bit slower to progress rain
chances to SE, so will have rain chances for the day on Tuesday
before ending in the evening in the southeast. Wednesday near
seasonal temperatures and dry in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions for most of the first half of the TAF period
at all terminals and generally stronger winds. The challenge is more
toward the later half of the period when morning stratus becomes a
factor over the region. Confidence is low on whether this will be
enough to cause BKN CIGS, so left that out for now. However, after
day break, any CIGS that form should begin to scatter out by late
morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KDDC 301738
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, HEADING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN STATES, AS
WELL AS A COLD FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE WAS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING WEAK, BUT PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION, WHICH WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND PROVIDED BY
OTHERWISE EFFICIENT, FULL INSOLATION. THE MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE SPATIALLY THIS AFTERNOON; GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70 FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
LIMITED SURFACE MIXING THAT OCCURS, BUT DROP OFF RAPIDLY AROUND 5 PM
TO LIGHT AS THE SUN ANGLE RAPIDLY DECLINES.

THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY MAY CROSS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FREEZE WARNING REQUIREMENTS. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
SHOWS THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 15 UTC
FRIDAY WITH A VERY SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE MOS CONSENSUS INDICATES COOLER
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, WE WILL
NOT UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT RATHER WAIT FOR
FOLLOW UP RUNS TO BETTER CHOOSE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BASED ON CLOUD COVER
AND THE 900 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
HOW LONG THE STATUS LINGERS AND WHERE IT WILL BE LONGER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG
THE STATUS WILL LINGER AND BASED ON THE ECMWF, GFS, NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WESTERN KANSAS. DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS.
GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S
WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 AND GOOD COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND THEN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL
DRAW MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. LOW
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  33  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  68  36  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  70  35  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  67  32  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  37  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066-079-081-090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...GERARD




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301738
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Somewhat complex upper troughing was moving southeast through the
Central Plains early this morning with rather widespread area of
higher potential vorticity aloft. Despite OAX and TOP 0Z soundings
showing dewpoint depressions of at least 10C throughout the
troposphere, isolated convection developed ahead of the trough in
southeast Nebraska in rather steep mid level lapse rates. As the
trough continues southeast, hard to rule out similar activity
developing in the local area. Will keep chances rather small for
most locations, with some mention in far eastern locations mainly
this morning as the trough exits. Have opted to keep thunder mention
out given quite limited coverage so far, but could see a strike or
two. Falling pressures ahead of a weak surface low with this upper
trough and some mid cloud keeping temps up, with recent 9 degree
jump up at MHK. Continued low level warm air advection into the
morning hours should counteract later day modest cold air advection
as mixing depths increase for a slightly warmer and noticeably
windier day than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

Evening hours see clear skies and weakening winds, but stronger cold
surge comes south overnight with an increase in north winds and some
stratus potential as secondary upper trough rotates south out of
southern Canada. Temps fall back to near freezing levels in the
north, in areas that experienced similar values Wednesday morning
so at this point have no plans for headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Canadian airmass continues to be driven southward on the back
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes on Friday. Highs
will struggle to rise into the lower to middle 40s. As center of
the surface high moves over western Missouri, temperatures quickly
fall below freezing in the later evening hours and drop into the
20s across the area by early Saturday. Although most area growers
have ended their growing season, giving some consideration to the
last few warm weeks at the end of the season, will issue what
will be the last freeze warning for the year in the remaining
counties that have not yet had a hard freeze. With quick return to
warm advection on Saturday, should make it into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night not as cold with warm
advection continuing and southerly surface winds keeping lows
around 40. Warming trend should bring highs Sunday afternoon back
into the 60s.

Rain chances could start with some light rain in warm air
advection regime overnight Sunday night into Monday, but better
chances come in the morning hours on Monday as lift from
approaching upper wave interacts with moisture streaming into the
area from the south southwest. Rain gets pushes southeast quickly
however, and will keep a short window of better rain chances
before moving southeast. EC is a bit slower to progress rain
chances to SE, so will have rain chances for the day on Tuesday
before ending in the evening in the southeast. Wednesday near
seasonal temperatures and dry in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Expect VFR conditions for most of the first half of the TAF period
at all terminals and generally stronger winds. The challenge is more
toward the later half of the period when morning stratus becomes a
factor over the region. Confidence is low on whether this will be
enough to cause BKN CIGS, so left that out for now. However, after
day break, any CIGS that form should begin to scatter out by late
morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KGLD 301733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301733
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1133 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE IFR
POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. BUILDING
SFC HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND WITH
UPSTREAM RAOBS INDICATING INCREASING MIXING RATIOS WITH HEIGHT
EXPECT A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS NEAR SUNRISE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT IN LIFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THAN MCK BUT THINK
THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301135
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Somewhat complex upper troughing was moving southeast through the
Central Plains early this morning with rather widespread area of
higher potential vorticity aloft. Despite OAX and TOP 0Z soundings
showing dewpoint depressions of at least 10C throughout the
troposphere, isolated convection developed ahead of the trough in
southeast Nebraska in rather steep mid level lapse rates. As the
trough continues southeast, hard to rule out similar activity
developing in the local area. Will keep chances rather small for
most locations, with some mention in far eastern locations mainly
this morning as the trough exits. Have opted to keep thunder mention
out given quite limited coverage so far, but could see a strike or
two. Falling pressures ahead of a weak surface low with this upper
trough and some mid cloud keeping temps up, with recent 9 degree
jump up at MHK. Continued low level warm air advection into the
morning hours should counteract later day modest cold air advection
as mixing depths increase for a slightly warmer and noticeably
windier day than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

Evening hours see clear skies and weakening winds, but stronger cold
surge comes south overnight with an increase in north winds and some
stratus potential as secondary upper trough rotates south out of
southern Canada. Temps fall back to near freezing levels in the
north, in areas that experienced similar values Wednesday morning
so at this point have no plans for headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Canadian airmass continues to be driven southward on the back
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes on Friday. Highs
will struggle to rise into the lower to middle 40s. As center of
the surface high moves over western Missouri, temperatures quickly
fall below freezing in the later evening hours and drop into the
20s across the area by early Saturday. Although most area growers
have ended their growing season, giving some consideration to the
last few warm weeks at the end of the season, will issue what
will be the last freeze warning for the year in the remaining
counties that have not yet had a hard freeze. With quick return to
warm advection on Saturday, should make it into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night not as cold with warm
advection continuing and southerly surface winds keeping lows
around 40. Warming trend should bring highs Sunday afternoon back
into the 60s.

Rain chances could start with some light rain in warm air
advection regime overnight Sunday night into Monday, but better
chances come in the morning hours on Monday as lift from
approaching upper wave interacts with moisture streaming into the
area from the south southwest. Rain gets pushes southeast quickly
however, and will keep a short window of better rain chances
before moving southeast. EC is a bit slower to progress rain
chances to SE, so will have rain chances for the day on Tuesday
before ending in the evening in the southeast. Wednesday near
seasonal temperatures and dry in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR conditions should persist through much of the forecast. LLWS
conditions slowly dissipating per radar and early radiosonde data.
Initial frontal passage brings in northwest winds early on, with a
secondary surge possibly allowing a stratus deck to form after
04Z. Unsure on development or persistence of a ceiling at this
point however.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR KSZ011-
012-021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KGLD 301134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BY 18Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET. LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SHIFT SOUTH AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STRATUS/FOG SHOULD OVERSPREAD
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 09Z (FIRST AT KMCK...THEN AT KGLD) WITH IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
PREVAIL THE CONDITIONS AND IT IS STILL TO FAR OUT TO ADD TEMPO
GROUP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KICT 301128
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
628 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER...ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IS DRAGGING A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: A FREEZE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.

AN EXTREMELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN COVERS NORTH AMERICA WITH A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP WAVE CURVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN TO THE GULF COAST KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREAS UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. WITH THE WAVE
UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THE ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...EXTENDING FROM THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY. SUCH A STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LOW FLOW REGIME WILL
DRIVE A CANADIAN AIRMASS ALMOST DUE SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE
KANSAS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SECOND AND ALMOST EQUALLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL
EXTEND FROM MONTANA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER-DECK WAVE
CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST ON MONDAY THIS WOULD INDUCE RAPID LOWER-
DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
INJECT MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...TO
MISSOURI. THE RESULT IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE RAINS ENDING IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE AFFECTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE
KCNU TERMINAL. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  37  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  35  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  36  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  37  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  34  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          68  34  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       68  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  39  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  37  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            69  37  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  38  49  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301105
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, HEADING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN STATES, AS
WELL AS A COLD FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE WAS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING WEAK, BUT PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION, WHICH WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND PROVIDED BY
OTHERWISE EFFICIENT, FULL INSOLATION. THE MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE SPATIALLY THIS AFTERNOON; GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70 FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
LIMITED SURFACE MIXING THAT OCCURS, BUT DROP OFF RAPIDLY AROUND 5 PM
TO LIGHT AS THE SUN ANGLE RAPIDLY DECLINES.

THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY MAY CROSS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FREEZE WARNING REQUIREMENTS. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
SHOWS THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 15 UTC
FRIDAY WITH A VERY SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE MOS CONSENSUS INDICATES COOLER
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, WE WILL
NOT UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT RATHER WAIT FOR
FOLLOW UP RUNS TO BETTER CHOOSE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BASED ON CLOUD COVER
AND THE 900 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
HOW LONG THE STATUS LINGERS AND WHERE IT WILL BE LONGER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG
THE STATUS WILL LINGER AND BASED ON THE ECMWF, GFS, NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WESTERN KANSAS. DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS.
GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S
WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 AND GOOD COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND THEN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL
DRAW MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT BASED ON
06Z BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CROSS KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING
AS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS LOCATED IN THE 900MB TO 850MB LEVEL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  33  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  68  36  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  70  35  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  67  32  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  37  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066-079-081-090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300849
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS EXITING THE NORTHERN PLAINS, HEADING INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN STATES, AS
WELL AS A COLD FRONT WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE WAS A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE AREA WILL BE UNDERGOING WEAK, BUT PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION, WHICH WILL SLOW THE WARMING TREND PROVIDED BY
OTHERWISE EFFICIENT, FULL INSOLATION. THE MODEL OUTPUT AND THE
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE SPATIALLY THIS AFTERNOON; GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70 FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE TO THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
LIMITED SURFACE MIXING THAT OCCURS, BUT DROP OFF RAPIDLY AROUND 5 PM
TO LIGHT AS THE SUN ANGLE RAPIDLY DECLINES.

THE GREATEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY MAY CROSS THE
THRESHOLD FOR FREEZE WARNING REQUIREMENTS. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
SHOWS THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 9 AND 15 UTC
FRIDAY WITH A VERY SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. THE MOS CONSENSUS INDICATES COOLER
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE, WE WILL
NOT UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH AT THIS TIME, BUT RATHER WAIT FOR
FOLLOW UP RUNS TO BETTER CHOOSE FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BASED ON CLOUD COVER
AND THE 900 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
HOW LONG THE STATUS LINGERS AND WHERE IT WILL BE LONGER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG
THE STATUS WILL LINGER AND BASED ON THE ECMWF, GFS, NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WESTERN KANSAS. DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS.
GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S
WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 AND GOOD COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND THEN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL
DRAW MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTRIBUTED TO A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KS THIS EVENING. THIS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND A NOTABLE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO COLBY AND NORTON. THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY WITH MODERATE
GUSTINESS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  33  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  68  36  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  70  35  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  67  32  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  37  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066-079-081-090.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300846
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AN RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE OVER
WESTERN US WITH LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN US...AND NW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDING EAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND PERSISTENT DEEP/DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES NIL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SO MAIN FOCUS IN ON
TEMPS...POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS
TODAY...SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 60S. A STRONG
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT BRINGING ONE OF THE COLDER AIR MASSES OF
THE FALL TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE BY EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE POOLING BEHIND THIS
SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...I WOULD HAVE
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20-25F RANGE
(IF NOT COLDER). NOT AN EASY CALL DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/INSULATION...SO I LEANED ON MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WHICH
STILL PUTS OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 27-32F RANGE. REGARDING FOG...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE A DENSE FOG EVENT DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT SREF/NAM.
WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY ISSUANCE
TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS EVENT IS GOING TO UNFOLD.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AS LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WITH SHALLOW/COLD AIR MASS
STILL LINGERING OVER THE PLAINS THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN A MAJOR
RECOVERY OF TEMPS DESPITE THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FLOW UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA DESPITE CLEARING SKIES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
LIMITED BY ELEVATED INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS
ALOFT FROM MIXING. STILL EXPECT BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (POSSIBLY A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE EAST). WINDS DO BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER OUR WEST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS INDICATED BY NAM BL RH AND VIS FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FA. AFTER FRONT PASSES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND INFLUENCE THE AREA
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OVER THE AREA. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ONLY BE A PRODUCER OF
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL WIND SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
AREA THRU 13Z THEN SKC. WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z-15Z THEN
SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE 15-25KTS. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NNE AROUND
10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 300837
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
337 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Somewhat complex upper troughing was moving southeast through the
Central Plains early this morning with rather widespread area of
higher potential vorticity aloft. Despite OAX and TOP 0Z soundings
showing dewpoint depressions of at least 10C throughout the
troposphere, isolated convection developed ahead of the trough in
southeast Nebraska in rather steep mid level lapse rates. As the
trough continues southeast, hard to rule out similar activity
developing in the local area. Will keep chances rather small for
most locations, with some mention in far eastern locations mainly
this morning as the trough exits. Have opted to keep thunder mention
out given quite limited coverage so far, but could see a strike or
two. Falling pressures ahead of a weak surface low with this upper
trough and some mid cloud keeping temps up, with recent 9 degree
jump up at MHK. Continued low level warm air advection into the
morning hours should counteract later day modest cold air advection
as mixing depths increase for a slightly warmer and noticeably
windier day than Wednesday, with mid 60s to lower 70s anticipated.

Evening hours see clear skies and weakening winds, but stronger cold
surge comes south overnight with an increase in north winds and some
stratus potential as secondary upper trough rotates south out of
southern Canada. Temps fall back to near freezing levels in the
north, in areas that experienced similar values Wednesday morning
so at this point have no plans for headlines.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Canadian airmass continues to be driven southward on the back
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes on Friday. Highs
will struggle to rise into the lower to middle 40s. As center of
the surface high moves over western Missouri, temperatures quickly
fall below freezing in the later evening hours and drop into the
20s across the area by early Saturday. Although most area growers
have ended their growing season, giving some consideration to the
last few warm weeks at the end of the season, will issue what
will be the last freeze warning for the year in the remaining
counties that have not yet had a hard freeze. With quick return to
warm advection on Saturday, should make it into the upper 40s to
low 50s by Saturday afternoon. Saturday night not as cold with warm
advection continuing and southerly surface winds keeping lows
around 40. Warming trend should bring highs Sunday afternoon back
into the 60s.

Rain chances could start with some light rain in warm air
advection regime overnight Sunday night into Monday, but better
chances come in the morning hours on Monday as lift from
approaching upper wave interacts with moisture streaming into the
area from the south southwest. Rain gets pushes southeast quickly
however, and will keep a short window of better rain chances
before moving southeast. EC is a bit slower to progress rain
chances to SE, so will have rain chances for the day on Tuesday
before ending in the evening in the southeast. Wednesday near
seasonal temperatures and dry in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Models continue to show to much dry air in place for large scale
forcing to generate any precip overnight. Therefore the forecast
anticipates VFR conditions persisting. Profiler data showing the
low level jet increasing with relatively light winds at the
surface so LLWS remains a possibility and have kept a mention in
the forecast. By Thursday afternoon, the boundary layer mixes out
with good momentum transfer so think there will be gusty northwest
winds by the early afternoon.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KICT 300820
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK UPPER-DECK TROF EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER...ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS IS DRAGGING A
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...TO NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHEAST. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHT: A FREEZE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING.

AN EXTREMELY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN COVERS NORTH AMERICA WITH A MID
TO UPPER RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO ALL THE WAY TO NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...AND AN EXTREMELY DEEP WAVE CURVING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THEN TO THE GULF COAST KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREAS UNDER A FAST NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME. WITH THE WAVE
UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THE ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...EXTENDING FROM THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
FRIDAY. SUCH A STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LOW FLOW REGIME WILL
DRIVE A CANADIAN AIRMASS ALMOST DUE SOUTH FROM MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE
KANSAS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUNGING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SECOND AND ALMOST EQUALLY INTENSE UPPER WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY... WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHERE AND WHEN IT WILL
EXTEND FROM MONTANA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THE UPPER-DECK WAVE
CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST ON MONDAY THIS WOULD INDUCE RAPID LOWER-
DECK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD
INJECT MOISTURE FROM TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...TO
MISSOURI. THE RESULT IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE MOST OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES TARGETING
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THESE AREAS. CHANCES WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE RAINS ENDING IN A WEST TO
EAST MANNER TUESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE LAST TAF ISSUANCE WITH A FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND
TO THE NW AROUND 11Z AT KRSL AND 15Z AT KICT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  37  51  27 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      69  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  35  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  36  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  37  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         67  34  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      68  34  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          68  34  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       68  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     71  39  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  37  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            69  37  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    70  38  49  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

ES




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NECESSITY
FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER AND ISSUED
A LONG-LEAD FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALL HINT AT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SOME VALUES MAY EVEN REACH HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA
(AT OR BELOW 28F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG A LIBERAL TO RUSSELL LINE.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY THE AREA
TONIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...VERY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THINK WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING/STRONG WARMING UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BASED ON CLOUD COVER
AND THE 900 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
HOW LONG THE STATUS LINGERS AND WHERE IT WILL BE LONGER DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IMPORTANT TO HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG
THE STATUS WILL LINGER AND BASED ON THE ECMWF, GFS, NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WESTERN KANSAS. DID TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

NORTHERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREAS.
GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S
WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SATURDAY MORNING THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE LOCATIONS. BASED ON
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 AND GOOD COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A WARMING TREND THEN CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL
DRAW MORE HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED
FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTRIBUTED TO A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KS THIS EVENING. THIS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND A NOTABLE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO COLBY AND NORTON. THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY WITH MODERATE
GUSTINESS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  33  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  67  32  53  35 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  33  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  34  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  65  32  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  36  53  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ031-046-
065-066-079-081-090.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300603
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NECESSITY
FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER AND ISSUED
A LONG-LEAD FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALL HINT AT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SOME VALUES MAY EVEN REACH HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA
(AT OR BELOW 28F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG A LIBERAL TO RUSSELL LINE.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY THE AREA
TONIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...VERY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THINK WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING/STRONG WARMING UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
RESULTING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW FAST SFC HIGH RETREATS AND
TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT. BY SATURDAY EXPECT FAIRLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
FIRE WX MAY BECOME A CONCERN. CURRENT DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY
FIRE WX PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
AS WEEKEND NEARS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THE MONDAY TIME PERIOD WHEN STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE PLAINS. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL VARY TO SOME
DEGREE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY ON
MONDAY WHERE 50-60 POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PHASE CHANGES AS THE TROUGH
PASSES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTRIBUTED TO A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KS THIS EVENING. THIS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND A NOTABLE WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO COLBY AND NORTON. THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY WITH MODERATE
GUSTINESS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  33  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  67  32  52  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  67  34  55  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  68  34  54  40 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  65  31  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  71  35  55  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...RUSSELL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR TEMP TREND OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
TROUGH HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE CWA WITH MOST AREAS SEEING WNW
WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE MID 40S THRU THE LOWER 50S. STILL EXPECT
SLOW DOWN TREND INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AS SKIES ROMAN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
AREA THRU 13Z THEN SKC. WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z-15Z THEN
SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE 15-25KTS. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NNE AROUND
10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300454
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR TEMP TREND OVER PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
TROUGH HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE CWA WITH MOST AREAS SEEING WNW
WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE MID 40S THRU THE LOWER 50S. STILL EXPECT
SLOW DOWN TREND INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT AS SKIES ROMAN MOSTLY
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER
AREA THRU 13Z THEN SKC. WNW WINDS AROUND 10KTS THRU 13Z-15Z THEN
SHIFT NORTH AND INCREASE 15-25KTS. BY 00Z FRIDAY...NNE AROUND
10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 300448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...AND IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A MUCH MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY (40S/50S) WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR LOWS. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY LEADING TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AND
MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER TO MOVE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS
WAS ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN THEIR OWN RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THEM LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY...REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE LAST TAF ISSUANCE WITH A FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND
TO THE NW AROUND 11Z AT KRSL AND 15Z AT KICT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  69  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  70  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  66  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  68  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  68  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  71  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         41  68  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  68  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  70  38  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 300448
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...AND IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A MUCH MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY (40S/50S) WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR LOWS. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY LEADING TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AND
MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER TO MOVE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS
WAS ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN THEIR OWN RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THEM LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY...REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN NIL THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.

THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE LAST TAF ISSUANCE WITH A FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS
THE UPPER WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLIP AROUND
TO THE NW AROUND 11Z AT KRSL AND 15Z AT KICT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  69  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  70  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  66  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  68  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  68  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  71  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         41  68  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  68  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  70  38  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 300426
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough progressing toward the
east coast with a shortwave trough noted over Montana early this
afternoon. Surface high pressure was centered over the region today,
gradually shifting to the east. Mostly sunny skies along with winds
shifting to the southeast helped to warm temperatures into the upper
50s to mid 60s this afternoon. Models show the shortwave trough
dipping southward and skimming across the forecast area overnight
into Thursday morning. This advancing trough will help to push an
area of surface low pressure and associated weak cool front eastward
across the area Thursday morning. While some isentropic lift will be
present with this passing wave, model soundings show little in the
way of available moisture so have kept the forecast dry with only
some mid-level clouds expected. These mid-level clouds along with
light southerly winds should keep overnight low temperatures a few
degrees warmer with readings in the low/mid 40s. Surface high
pressure will surge into the central U.S. behind the exiting surface
low. Despite northerly surface winds through the day, do not
anticipate CAA behind the low so mostly sunny skies should aid in
afternoon high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An upper level trough digging southeast out of central Canada into
the Great Lakes States will amplify the longer wave length trough
across the eastern US. Strong low-level CAA will spread southward
across the plains late Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures on
Friday will struggle into the mid 40s for highs as a 1036 MB surface
ridge will build southward across the MO river valley from central
Canada. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH during the morning hours of
Friday will gradually diminish through the afternoon hours.

Friday night, clear skies and light winds will cause overnight lows
to drop into the lower to middle 20s. This will cause the first
widespread hard freeze across the CWA. The official end of the
growing season across the CWA is October 31st. We may issue a freeze
warning for Friday morning, even though it will be November 1st.

Saturday, the cold surface ridge will gradually shift east into the
MS river valley. After a cold start temperatures will only warm into
the mid 40s to around 50. The deeper longer wave-length trough will
move east across the eastern seaboard. An upper level ridge will
amplify across the plains.

Saturday Night through Sunday night, an upper level trough will move
into the western US. The upper trough will shear apart with the
northern section of the H5 trough lifting northeast across the
northern plains. The southern sections will dig into the four
corners region. A deepening lee trough across the central and
southern high plains will cause southerly low-level winds to
increase across the southern and central plains. The southerly winds
will transport deeper moisture north. Isentropic lift ahead of the
moisture return may cause isolated showers to develop Sunday Night.
Highs on Sunday will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Monday through Tuesday. The H5 trough across the four corners region
will lift northeast across the plains. The combination of stronger
ascent, deeper moisture and surface convergence ahead of surface
front will provide for a good chance of showers and perhaps isolated
thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday morning. The front should
push southeast of the CWA Tuesday afternoon bringing and end to the
showers. Highs Monday will reach the lower 60s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, The eastern US longer wave length
trough will amplify across the eastern US. The coldest air mass
should remain across the upper Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will reach
the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Models continue to show to much dry air in place for large scale
forcing to generate any precip overnight. Therefore the forecast
anticipates VFR conditions persisting. Profiler data showing the
low level jet increasing with relatively light winds at the
surface so LLWS remains a possibility and have kept a mention in
the forecast. By Thursday afternoon, the boundary layer mixes out
with good momentum transfer so think there will be gusty northwest
winds by the early afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KGLD 300225 CCA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
825 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO
TROUGH MEANDERING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. SW FLOW IN IMMEDIATE
AREA OF THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE OVER PAST HOUR(GLD
NOW 61F WAS 54F LAST HOUR). THIS SLIGHT BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL OF WNW FLOW. SIMILAR OCCURRENCE MAY OCCUR
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR AN HOUR
OR SO UNTIL TROUGH COMPLETELY CLEARS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING
FOR MAINLY SKC...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM 02Z-15Z. LGT/VAR WINDS
WILL BECM NW 5-10KTS BY 02Z THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 15-25KTS BY
13Z-15Z AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...THEN DROP DOWN TO NEAR 10KTS
BY 23Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300225
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
825 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO
TROUGH MEANDERING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. SW FLOW IN IMMEDIATE
AREA OF THE TROUGH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE OVER PAST HOUR(GLD
NOW 61F WAS 54F LAST HOUR). THIS SLIGHT BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY LAST A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
LEADING TO THE ARRIVAL OF WNW FLOW. SIMILAR OCCURENCE MAY OCCUR
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR AN HOUR
OR SO UNTIL TROUGH COMPLETELY CLEARS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING
FOR MAINLY SKC...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM 02Z-15Z. LGT/VAR WINDS
WILL BECM NW 5-10KTS BY 02Z THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 15-25KTS BY
13Z-15Z AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...THEN DROP DOWN TO NEAR 10KTS
BY 23Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 292344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...AND IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A MUCH MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY (40S/50S) WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR LOWS. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY LEADING TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AND
MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER TO MOVE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS
WAS ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN THEIR OWN RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THEM LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY...REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST AS AN UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE OZARK REGION BY THU AFTERNOON. THE ONLY IMPACT THIS FEATURE
WILL HAVE FOR AVIATION WILL BE TO FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST THU MORNING INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  69  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  70  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  66  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  68  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  68  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  71  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         41  68  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  68  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  70  38  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH A TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD OF 30 TO 60 DEGREES
IS STARTING THE FORECAST AREA OFF ON A GREAT NOTE. CURRENTLY WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE U60S TO L70S...A STEADY DROP WILL BE
EXPECTED AT SUNSET DOWN INTO THE M30S. WITH DEWPTS SO LOW WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR AREA OBS AFTER SUNSET TO SEE IF OVERNIGHT
FORECASTED LOWS WILL HOLD...BUT MAY DROP IF TREND WARRANTS. VARIABLE
WIND CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME NW OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK SE INTO THE CWA AFTER
SUNSET PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM NW TO SE...AND MAY
AID IN HOLDING TEMPS UP IN SOME LOCALES. OVERALL...FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING
FOR MAINLY SKC...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM 02Z-15Z. LGT/VAR WINDS
WILL BECM NW 5-10KTS BY 02Z THURSDAY...INCREASING TO 15-25KTS BY
13Z-15Z AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...THEN DROP DOWN TO NEAR 10KTS
BY 23Z THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NECESSITY
FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER AND ISSUED
A LONG-LEAD FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALL HINT AT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SOME VALUES MAY EVEN REACH HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA
(AT OR BELOW 28F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG A LIBERAL TO RUSSELL LINE.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY THE AREA
TONIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...VERY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THINK WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING/STRONG WARMING UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
RESULTING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW FAST SFC HIGH RETREATS AND
TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT. BY SATURDAY EXPECT FAIRLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
FIRE WX MAY BECOME A CONCERN. CURRENT DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY
FIRE WX PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
AS WEEKEND NEARS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THE MONDAY TIME PERIOD WHEN STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE PLAINS. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL VARY TO SOME
DEGREE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY ON
MONDAY WHERE 50-60 POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PHASE CHANGES AS THE TROUGH
PASSES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA) IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NNW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KT BY 16Z IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  65  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  64  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  41  67  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  65  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  71  35  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292240
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATE FOR FREEZE WATCH...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NECESSITY
FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER AND ISSUED
A LONG-LEAD FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALL HINT AT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SOME VALUES MAY EVEN REACH HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA
(AT OR BELOW 28F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG A LIBERAL TO RUSSELL LINE.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY THE AREA
TONIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...VERY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THINK WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING/STRONG WARMING UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
RESULTING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW FAST SFC HIGH RETREATS AND
TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT. BY SATURDAY EXPECT FAIRLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
FIRE WX MAY BECOME A CONCERN. CURRENT DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY
FIRE WX PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
AS WEEKEND NEARS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THE MONDAY TIME PERIOD WHEN STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE PLAINS. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL VARY TO SOME
DEGREE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY ON
MONDAY WHERE 50-60 POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PHASE CHANGES AS THE TROUGH
PASSES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 8 AND 11Z. WHILE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  65  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  64  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  41  67  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  65  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  71  35  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292240
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATE FOR FREEZE WATCH...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THERE IS GROWING CONCERN AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE NECESSITY
FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE PULLED THE TRIGGER AND ISSUED
A LONG-LEAD FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE ALL HINT AT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SOME VALUES MAY EVEN REACH HARD FREEZE WARNING CRITERIA
(AT OR BELOW 28F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG A LIBERAL TO RUSSELL LINE.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY THE AREA
TONIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...VERY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THINK WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING/STRONG WARMING UNLIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
RESULTING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW FAST SFC HIGH RETREATS AND
TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT. BY SATURDAY EXPECT FAIRLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
FIRE WX MAY BECOME A CONCERN. CURRENT DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY
FIRE WX PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
AS WEEKEND NEARS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THE MONDAY TIME PERIOD WHEN STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE PLAINS. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL VARY TO SOME
DEGREE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY ON
MONDAY WHERE 50-60 POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PHASE CHANGES AS THE TROUGH
PASSES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 8 AND 11Z. WHILE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  65  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  64  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  41  67  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  65  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  71  35  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KTOP 292227
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
527 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough progressing toward the
east coast with a shortwave trough noted over Montana early this
afternoon. Surface high pressure was centered over the region today,
gradually shifting to the east. Mostly sunny skies along with winds
shifting to the southeast helped to warm temperatures into the upper
50s to mid 60s this afternoon. Models show the shortwave trough
dipping southward and skimming across the forecast area overnight
into Thursday morning. This advancing trough will help to push an
area of surface low pressure and associated weak cool front eastward
across the area Thursday morning. While some isentropic lift will be
present with this passing wave, model soundings show little in the
way of available moisture so have kept the forecast dry with only
some mid-level clouds expected. These mid-level clouds along with
light southerly winds should keep overnight low temperatures a few
degrees warmer with readings in the low/mid 40s. Surface high
pressure will surge into the central U.S. behind the exiting surface
low. Despite northerly surface winds through the day, do not
anticipate CAA behind the low so mostly sunny skies should aid in
afternoon high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An upper level trough digging southeast out of central Canada into
the Great Lakes States will amplify the longer wave length trough
across the eastern US. Strong low-level CAA will spread southward
across the plains late Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures on
Friday will struggle into the mid 40s for highs as a 1036 MB surface
ridge will build southward across the MO river valley from central
Canada. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH during the morning hours of
Friday will gradually diminish through the afternoon hours.

Friday night, clear skies and light winds will cause overnight lows
to drop into the lower to middle 20s. This will cause the first
widespread hard freeze across the CWA. The official end of the
growing season across the CWA is October 31st. We may issue a freeze
warning for Friday morning, even though it will be November 1st.

Saturday, the cold surface ridge will gradually shift east into the
MS river valley. After a cold start temperatures will only warm into
the mid 40s to around 50. The deeper longer wave-length trough will
move east across the eastern seaboard. An upper level ridge will
amplify across the plains.

Saturday Night through Sunday night, an upper level trough will move
into the western US. The upper trough will shear apart with the
northern section of the H5 trough lifting northeast across the
northern plains. The southern sections will dig into the four
corners region. A deepening lee trough across the central and
southern high plains will cause southerly low-level winds to
increase across the southern and central plains. The southerly winds
will transport deeper moisture north. Isentropic lift ahead of the
moisture return may cause isolated showers to develop Sunday Night.
Highs on Sunday will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Monday through Tuesday. The H5 trough across the four corners region
will lift northeast across the plains. The combination of stronger
ascent, deeper moisture and surface convergence ahead of surface
front will provide for a good chance of showers and perhaps isolated
thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday morning. The front should
push southeast of the CWA Tuesday afternoon bringing and end to the
showers. Highs Monday will reach the lower 60s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, The eastern US longer wave length
trough will amplify across the eastern US. The coldest air mass
should remain across the upper Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will reach
the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

NAM12 and RAP13 forecast soundings continue to show a steep
nocturnal inversion with a 40KT low level jet setting up late this
evening. Therefore will maintain a mention of LLWS. Otherwise a
dry airmass is expected to preclude any precip or restrictions to
VSBY and CIGS. A tightening pressure gradient and dry adiabatic
low level lapse rates could lead to some gusty northwest winds Thu
afternoon behind the FROPA.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 292048
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
348 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level trough progressing toward the
east coast with a shortwave trough noted over Montana early this
afternoon. Surface high pressure was centered over the region today,
gradually shifting to the east. Mostly sunny skies along with winds
shifting to the southeast helped to warm temperatures into the upper
50s to mid 60s this afternoon. Models show the shortwave trough
dipping southward and skimming across the forecast area overnight
into Thursday morning. This advancing trough will help to push an
area of surface low pressure and associated weak cool front eastward
across the area Thursday morning. While some isentropic lift will be
present with this passing wave, model soundings show little in the
way of available moisture so have kept the forecast dry with only
some mid-level clouds expected. These mid-level clouds along with
light southerly winds should keep overnight low temperatures a few
degrees warmer with readings in the low/mid 40s. Surface high
pressure will surge into the central U.S. behind the exiting surface
low. Despite northerly surface winds through the day, do not
anticipate caa behind the low so mostly sunny skies should aid in
afternoon high temperatures reaching into the mid/upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

An upper level trough digging southeast out of central Canada into
the Great Lakes States will amplify the longer wave length trough
across the eastern US. Strong low-level CAA will spread southward
across the plains late Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures on
Friday will struggle into the mid 40s for highs as a 1036 MB surface
ridge will build southward across the MO river valley from central
Canada. North winds of 15 to 25 MPH during the morning hours of
Friday will gradually diminish through the afternoon hours.

Friday night, clear skies and light winds will cause overnight lows
to drop into the lower to middle 20s. This will cause the first
widespread hard freeze across the CWA. The official end of the
growing season across the CWA is October 31st. We may issue a freeze
warning for Friday morning, even though it will be November 1st.

Saturday, the cold surface ridge will gradually shift east into the
MS river valley. After a cold start temperatures will only warm into
the mid 40s to around 50. The deeper longer wave-length trough will
move east across the eastern seaboard. An upper level ridge will
amplify across the plains.

Saturday Night through Sunday night, an upper level trough will move
into the western US. The upper trough will shear apart with the
northern section of the H5 trough lifting northeast across the
northern plains. The southern sections will dig into the four
corners region. A deepening lee trough across the central and
southern high plains will cause southerly low-level winds to
increase across the southern and central plains. The southerly winds
will transport deeper moisture north. Isentropic lift ahead of the
moisture return may cause isolated showers to develop Sunday Night.
Highs on Sunday will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Monday through Tuesday. The H5 trough across the four corners region
will lift northeast across the plains. The combination of stronger
ascent, deeper moisture and surface convergence ahead of surface
front will provide for a good chance of showers and perhaps isolated
thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday morning. The front should
push southeast of the CWA Tuesday afternoon bringing and end to the
showers. Highs Monday will reach the lower 60s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday, The eastern US longer wave length
trough will amplify across the eastern US. The coldest air mass
should remain across the upper Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will reach
the lower 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Surface winds will be light through Thursday morning, gradually
veering from southeast to northwest. As a shortwave trough skims
southward over the region overnight into Thursday morning, the
low-level jet will increase over the TAF sites, resulting in the
potential for some LLWS concerns overnight as southwesterly winds at
around 1000ft may reach upwards of 35-40kts.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KGLD 292041
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW WOULD BE A COLD RAIN WITH A BRIEF BOUT OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 292038
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL CONCERN NOW IS HOW COOL TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE COMES WITH A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AND RAPID CHANGES IN MOS GUIDANCE.

DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM RUSHES SOUTH FROM NORTH
DAKOTA TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...ANTICIPATING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. RECENT TRENDS IN
ECE/MEX GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10
DEGREES FOR LOWS AND 10-15 DEGREES ON HIGHS. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
ACCORDINGLY. DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARRIVAL IS
DELAYED UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...POOLING
MOISTURE...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE
FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. PLACED PATCHY FOG AND NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WIND
SPEEDS. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN WITH RESPECT TO WIND SPEEDS ON
SATURDAY SO BROUGHT THEM DOWN 2-4 KNOTS...SUSTAINED 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STRONGER LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS QUICKER WITH A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES HEADING EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...SUPPORTING THE NUDGE DOWN IN WIND SPEEDS. WINDS ON FRIDAY
ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY AS WELL BUT CONFINED TO EAST COLORADO. THE
LOCATION OF THESE WINDS ALSO DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL POSITION. THE
FARTHER WEST THE FRONT PUSHES...THE FARTHER WEST THE STRONGER AXIS
OF WINDS SETS UP.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AS HINTED AT BY THE GFS RUN TWO DAYS AGO. INITIAL
LOBE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST BUT GUIDANCE NOW STRENGTHENS
A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT
PASSES THROUGH MONDAY. 700 MB RH SUGGESTS THAT A DRY SLOT MOVES IN
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE RAPIDLY ADVANCING EAST. THE TRI-STATE
AREA PRECIPITATION COMES ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
AND AFTER YET ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 MB TEMPS DROPPED SHARPLY
THIS MODEL RUN SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND SNOW THIS YEAR HAS GONE
UP SLIGHTLY. NOT CONFIDENT IN CHANCES OF SNOW JUST YET AND NOT
THINKING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE YET WITH LIGHT QPF
ADVERTISED AND SOIL TEMPERATURES 50+ DEGREES. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KDDC 292018
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
318 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014



.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ATOP THE
RIDGE AXIS AND ENTERING THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/PANHANDLE OF
NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF SFC TROUGH WITH STRONGEST WINDS
GENERALLY ALONG A LIBERAL TO RUSSELL LINE.

AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY THE AREA
TONIGHT...FORCING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...VERY LARGE LOW AND MID LEVEL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...THINK WINDS WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
OBSERVED TO THE NORTH IF WINDS DO DECOUPLE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONG COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET ON
THURSDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING DEEP MIXING/STRONG WARMING UNLIKELY.



.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
RESULTING GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN
CONCERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOW FAST SFC HIGH RETREATS AND
TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT. BY SATURDAY EXPECT FAIRLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WITH WARMING
TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
FIRE WX MAY BECOME A CONCERN. CURRENT DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY
FIRE WX PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
AS WEEKEND NEARS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THE MONDAY TIME PERIOD WHEN STRONG TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE PLAINS. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL VARY TO SOME
DEGREE ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA...MAINLY ON
MONDAY WHERE 50-60 POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PHASE CHANGES AS THE TROUGH
PASSES. BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPING TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 8 AND 11Z. WHILE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  65  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  64  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  41  67  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  65  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  71  35  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KICT 291925
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
225 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT...AND IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN LIFT/MOISTURE
WITH THIS WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING MAINLY A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. A MUCH MORE POTENT PV ANOMALY WILL SHIFT OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN AIR
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY (40S/50S) WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
BUILD INTO EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S FOR LOWS. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE
PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY...AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
APPROACHING THE PLAINS. LEE TROUGHING/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY LEADING TO VERY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE AND
MILDER AIR RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
FASTER TO MOVE THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY-TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. THE GFS
WAS ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN THEIR OWN RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY AND THE
DISPARITY BETWEEN THEM LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY...REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING. FOR NOW...WILL
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST MONDAY-TUESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONSIDERABLY LOWER IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WINDS COULD GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KRSL AND
KSLN TERMINALS AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TERMINALS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE IMPACTED FIRST...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  69  37  51 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  68  35  48 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        43  68  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  70  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  66  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  34  50 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          43  68  34  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       41  68  35  47 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  71  39  50 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         41  68  37  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            42  68  37  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  70  38  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291925
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
125 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  RAP
500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.

NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COULD BRING SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT.  AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS INDICATED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA.  AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY AND BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS...WHICH WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND PROVIDING GUSTY WINDS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KTOP 291751
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1251 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery showing progressive pattern with
upper trough exiting the Great Lakes area with another wave
entering the Pacific Northwest. Broad area of surface high
pressure was over the Central Plains with light winds and clear
skies allowing temps to fall, though not very quickly in recent
hours, perhaps at least in part due to warm ground conditions. At
this point plan to let the going frost and freeze headlines
continue through sunrise but forecast appears be on the cold side
of the range of possibilities.

South winds return in the afternoon as the upstream upper wave
enters the High Plains. Warm air advection is not very strong but
should be enough to bring highs back into the lower and middle
60s. Upper wave takes a more southerly turn tonight and brings
decent forcing aloft, but quite limited moisture throughout the
column should keep dry conditions intact with only some high cloud
resulting. Winds will attempt to increase somewhat overnight as a
modest warm front comes northeast through eastern Kansas and
provide warmer temps than this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Shortwave moving through the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley
still forecast to just clip the forecast area and pass quickly
southeast. Could see an early day sprinkle far northeast but at
this time low levels appear too dry for much to reach the ground.
Good mixing ahead of incoming colder air still should bring highs
into the 60s. Upper pattern amplifies considerably into early
Friday, aiding in driving cold high pressure southward into the
Northern and Central Plains states. Northerly winds should keep
lows mixed into the 30s Thursday night, but as this high is now
centered more toward Kansas than previous runs, core of colder air
makes a closer approach and highs will struggle to reach into the
40s on Friday. Surface high makes slow eastward progress into
Saturday morning, but with mostly clear skies and light winds
under this high, overnight lows expected to fall into the 20s -
with some guidance even suggesting teens in low spots. Will start
with a range of 22-27 across the area and may need to go lower if
this system remains on this track.

Upper ridging between systems and south surface winds should get
highs on Saturday back into the lower 50s despite such a cold
start. This continues into Sunday as upper flow transitions to
southwest and WAA continues. Kept introduction of slight chance
PoPs on Sunday, although EC and GFS continue to differ on where
rain chances will set up with next incoming wave/front. GFS brings
dry slot across the forecast area while EC streams moisture
northeast ahead of the southwestern trof and brings accumulating
rainfall on Monday. Forecast is a blend of uncertainty this far
out, decreasing chances through the southeast on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the 18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Surface winds will be light through Thursday morning, gradually
veering from southeast to northwest. As a shortwave trough skims
southward over the region overnight into Thursday morning, the
low-level jet will increase over the TAF sites, resulting in the
potential for some LLWS concerns overnight as southwesterly winds at
around 1000ft may reach upwards of 35-40kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke







000
FXUS63 KDDC 291733
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1233 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014


.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

12Z RAOBS INDICATE A MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THAN INDICATED AT DDC OR AMA. AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP...EXPECT ADVECTION AND AFTERNOON MIXING TO TIGHTEN
UP DEWPOINT GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BUT THINK THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WX VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS, FOLLOWED BY A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
MOVE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 25 MPH BY
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION BREAKS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AND IN THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, IN
RESPONSE TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF
DODGE CITY BY DAWN WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AT
10 TO 20 MPH. IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 44 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, A LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY, PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY, AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT, THE ABSENCE OF PRECIP WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS ENDING A
BRIEF WARMING TREND. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 12C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
USHERS COOLER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO MUCH OF KANSAS WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW 10C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 8 AND 11Z. WHILE WINDS WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  42  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  39  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  41  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  71  41  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KICT 291732
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1232 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS FAIRLY LARGE...BUT
WEAK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE NEIGHBORHOOD. CLEAR SKIES &
NORTHWEST <7 MPH HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE 40S IN
ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THIS MORNING:
WITH CLEAR SKIES & LIGHT NW WINDS TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL
LIKELY DROP TO NEAR 32F & AS SUCH THE FROST ADVISORY NO DOUBT REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL KS UNTIL 9 AM.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT:
IT`LL CONTINUE TO BE "CLEAR SAILING" FOR ALL AREAS AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WESTERN U.S. QUICKLY AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT & THU THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FRI & FRI NIGHT. FRI NIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS THE NW FLOW
DRIVES A STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH SE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE IA/MO
BORDER. AS SUCH HAVE LOWERED FRI NIGHT`S LOWS INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S.
FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR FRI NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER DECK TROF MOVING EAST OVER THE WEST COAST
SAT MORNING WILL TAKE ON A STRONGLY POSITIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES
THE ROCKIES. BY MON NIGHT THE MID-UPPER TROF SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO BAJA CA. THIS WOULD PROMOTE RAPID LOWER-DECK TROFFING
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THAT WOULD IN TURN INDUCE PRONOUNCED LOWER
DECK MOIST ADVECTION THAT WOULD TARGET EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS &
MO. AS SUCH SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THESE
AREAS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE WITH THE BETTER CHANCES SLOWLY
SHIFTING SE MON NIGHT & TUE. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL & SC KS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WINDS COULD GET GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KRSL AND
KSLN TERMINALS AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TERMINALS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE IMPACTED FIRST...FOLLOWED BY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

JMR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      70  41  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          69  42  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        69  42  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  42  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         71  43  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      70  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          69  42  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       69  41  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            67  40  67  37 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    68  40  67  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 291654
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE
ROCKIES. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA BETWEEN THESE FEATURES.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
NW FLOW OVER THE CWA. LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH HIGHS
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH A DEEP DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS TROUGH WILL
KICK A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY.

FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND A LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN US.
THERE WILL BE A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE MEAN
FLOW...HOWEVER A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL STORM
TRACKS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
50S TO THE CWA (POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST). THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO...AND
WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA THROUGH MID DAY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE A STIFF SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE WEAK AND WILL PASS OVER THE FA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SO WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN
THE NORTHWEST AREA OF THE FA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGAN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
WINDS TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AND THE TEMPERATURES
TO DECREASE TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST MORE OF
THE AREA WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BDW
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KDDC 291516
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1016 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

...UPDATED WIND AND RH TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

12Z RAOBS INDICATE A MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA THAN INDICATED AT DDC OR AMA. AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP...EXPECT ADVECTION AND AFTERNOON MIXING TO TIGHTEN
UP DEWPOINT GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BUT THINK THEY WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL FIRE WX VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS, FOLLOWED BY A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
FLOW TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
MOVE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 12 TO 25 MPH BY
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION BREAKS AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AND IN THE LOWER 70S.

FOR TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, IN
RESPONSE TO THE MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE FRONT WILL BE JUST EAST OF
DODGE CITY BY DAWN WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWESTERLY AT
10 TO 20 MPH. IT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 39 TO 44 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, A LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY, PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY, AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT, THE ABSENCE OF PRECIP WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS ENDING A
BRIEF WARMING TREND. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW 10C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 12C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 60S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
USHERS COOLER AIR SOUTHWEST INTO MUCH OF KANSAS WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW 10C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LOWER 60S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN RETURN
TO WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS KANSAS
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI. AS A RESULT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO
25KT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT
WHILE BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  42  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  72  39  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  71  41  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  72  41  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  71  41  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  72  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KTOP 291144
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
644 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Water vapor satellite imagery showing progressive pattern with
upper trough exiting the Great Lakes area with another wave
entering the Pacific Northwest. Broad area of surface high
pressure was over the Central Plains with light winds and clear
skies allowing temps to fall, though not very quickly in recent
hours, perhaps at least in part due to warm ground conditions. At
this point plan to let the going frost and freeze headlines
continue through sunrise but forecast appears be on the cold side
of the range of possibilities.

South winds return in the afternoon as the upstream upper wave
enters the High Plains. Warm air advection is not very strong but
should be enough to bring highs back into the lower and middle
60s. Upper wave takes a more southerly turn tonight and brings
decent forcing aloft, but quite limited moisture throughout the
column should keep dry conditions intact with only some high cloud
resulting. Winds will attempt to increase somewhat overnight as a
modest warm front comes northeast through eastern Kansas and
provide warmer temps than this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

Shortwave moving through the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley
still forecast to just clip the forecast area and pass quickly
southeast. Could see an early day sprinkle far northeast but at
this time low levels appear too dry for much to reach the ground.
Good mixing ahead of incoming colder air still should bring highs
into the 60s. Upper pattern amplifies considerably into early
Friday, aiding in driving cold high pressure southward into the
Northern and Central Plains states. Northerly winds should keep
lows mixed into the 30s Thursday night, but as this high is now
centered more toward Kansas than previous runs, core of colder air
makes a closer approach and highs will struggle to reach into the
40s on Friday. Surface high makes slow eastward progress into
Saturday morning, but with mostly clear skies and light winds
under this high, overnight lows expected to fall into the 20s -
with some guidance even suggesting teens in low spots. Will start
with a range of 22-27 across the area and may need to go lower if
this system remains on this track.

Upper ridging between systems and south surface winds should get
highs on Saturday back into the lower 50s despite such a cold
start. This continues into Sunday as upper flow transitions to
southwest and WAA continues. Kept introduction of slight chance
PoPs on Sunday, although EC and GFS continue to differ on where
rain chances will set up with next incoming wave/front. GFS brings
dry slot across the forecast area while EC streams moisture
northeast ahead of the southwestern trof and brings accumulating
rainfall on Monday. Forecast is a blend of uncertainty this far
out, decreasing chances through the southeast on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR conditions anticipated. Can`t completely rule out patchy
ground fog through 14Z but no signs of it currently. Winds
gradually increase from the south with wind shear likely in the
last few hours of the forecast. Went ahead with LLWS mention but
fine tuning of timing and levels can be expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ026-034-035-
037-039-040.

FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-036-038.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65






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