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000
FXUS63 KDDC 070514
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1214 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH 250MB JET STREAK LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE BASE OF THE
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER EAST A
500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A THE 700MB AND 850MB BAROCLINIC/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN AREA OF BETTER 850MB
AND 700MB MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE AT 00Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY NEAR THIS SURFACE HIGH RANGED FROM +14
TO +16C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  64  88 /  10  30  50  40
GCK  55  81  64  89 /  10  40  50  30
EHA  55  85  65  90 /  10  50  50  20
LBL  56  83  66  90 /  10  50  50  20
HYS  56  80  63  84 /  10  20  60  60
P28  61  80  66  90 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 070514
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1214 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WITH 250MB JET STREAK LOCATED AT THE BASE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE BASE OF THE
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. FURTHER EAST A
500MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A THE 700MB AND 850MB BAROCLINIC/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDED
FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. AN AREA OF BETTER 850MB
AND 700MB MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS DEFORMATION
ZONE AT 00Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY NEAR THIS SURFACE HIGH RANGED FROM +14
TO +16C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES IN SASKATCHEWAN HAD ALREADY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT HYS AND GCK TO 3-4SM AS OF 05Z. THE VISIBILITY AT
DDC ALSO HAS BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE
SMOKE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED VISIBILITIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES TO FALL OR STAY IN
THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL
FOR HOW LONG THIS SMOKE WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS BUT WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITIES AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SO WIND SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL BACK INTO THE RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AND THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILING BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TUESDAY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AND DDC
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  64  88 /  10  30  50  40
GCK  55  81  64  89 /  10  40  50  30
EHA  55  85  65  90 /  10  50  50  20
LBL  56  83  66  90 /  10  50  50  20
HYS  56  80  63  84 /  10  20  60  60
P28  61  80  66  90 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 070451
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO EASTERN KS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW
THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE RAP IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE DRYER AIR. THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS CAUSING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
HOLD ON LONGER. AT THIS TIME, AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
NAM AND IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBY AT TOP AND FOE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN
ANY CASE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 070451
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO EASTERN KS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW
THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE RAP IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE DRYER AIR. THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS CAUSING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
HOLD ON LONGER. AT THIS TIME, AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
NAM AND IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBY AT TOP AND FOE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN
ANY CASE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 070451
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO EASTERN KS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW
THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE RAP IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE DRYER AIR. THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS CAUSING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
HOLD ON LONGER. AT THIS TIME, AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
NAM AND IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBY AT TOP AND FOE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN
ANY CASE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS




000
FXUS63 KTOP 070451
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO EASTERN KS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH CIGS BECOMING VFR. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW
THIS TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE RAP IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN THE DRYER AIR. THERE APPEARS TO STILL BE
SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS MAY BE WHAT IS CAUSING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
HOLD ON LONGER. AT THIS TIME, AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE
NAM AND IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBY AT TOP AND FOE A LITTLE SLOWER. IN
ANY CASE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...WOLTERS



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 070441
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT INTO EXTREME SE KS AT THIS TIME.  STILL SEEING
LOTS OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST KS...TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  COULD STILL SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS STRATIFORM RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR AREAS SE OF THE TURNPIKE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING.  NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK TO THE NORTH THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL AT BEST.  HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RENEWED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT....SO CONFIDENCE IN RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LOW.

WILL TOUCH UP GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN KS AT
THIS TIME...MAINLY TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  EXPECT THIS AREA
OF SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE KCNU TAF SITE.  SO
WILL KEEP SHRA AND VCTS IN FOR THE KCNU TAF...AS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA.  JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RAIN
SHIELD...COULD SEE SOME MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR CIGS...FOR THE
KICT/KHUT AND KSLN FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.  WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THE IFR CIGS IN KICT/KHUT.

AFTER THE MVFR CIGS END...WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS. EXPECT LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PLAY
OUT...AS MODELS SHOW ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN KS.  WILL GO WITH A VCSH FOR NOW...BUT NOT ALOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 /  60  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 /  30  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 /  50  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  90  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  30  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 / 100  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 / 100  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 / 100  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 / 100  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 070314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1014 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT INTO EXTREME SE KS AT THIS TIME.  STILL SEEING
LOTS OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST KS...TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  COULD STILL SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS STRATIFORM RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR AREAS SE OF THE TURNPIKE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING.  NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK TO THE NORTH THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL AT BEST.  HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RENEWED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT....SO CONFIDENCE IN RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LOW.

WILL TOUCH UP GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ARRIVE AT KCNU
NEAR START OF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KHUT/KICT AT
THE ONSET OF FORECAST...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONE POTENTIAL CONCERN IS KICT/KHUT/KCNU
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND FRONT. RETURNING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSITE OF SITE
THROUGH 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 /  60  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 /  30  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 /  50  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  80  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  30  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  90  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 / 100  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 / 100  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 / 100  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 070314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1014 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT INTO EXTREME SE KS AT THIS TIME.  STILL SEEING
LOTS OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST KS...TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  COULD STILL SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS STRATIFORM RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR AREAS SE OF THE TURNPIKE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING.  NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK TO THE NORTH THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL AT BEST.  HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RENEWED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT....SO CONFIDENCE IN RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LOW.

WILL TOUCH UP GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ARRIVE AT KCNU
NEAR START OF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KHUT/KICT AT
THE ONSET OF FORECAST...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONE POTENTIAL CONCERN IS KICT/KHUT/KCNU
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND FRONT. RETURNING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSITE OF SITE
THROUGH 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 /  60  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 /  30  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 /  50  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  80  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  30  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  90  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 / 100  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 / 100  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 / 100  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1014 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT INTO EXTREME SE KS AT THIS TIME.  STILL SEEING
LOTS OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST KS...TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  COULD STILL SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS STRATIFORM RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR AREAS SE OF THE TURNPIKE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING.  NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK TO THE NORTH THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL AT BEST.  HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RENEWED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT....SO CONFIDENCE IN RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LOW.

WILL TOUCH UP GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ARRIVE AT KCNU
NEAR START OF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KHUT/KICT AT
THE ONSET OF FORECAST...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONE POTENTIAL CONCERN IS KICT/KHUT/KCNU
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND FRONT. RETURNING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSITE OF SITE
THROUGH 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 /  60  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 /  30  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 /  50  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  80  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  30  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  90  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 / 100  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 / 100  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 / 100  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1014 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT INTO EXTREME SE KS AT THIS TIME.  STILL SEEING
LOTS OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST KS...TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  COULD STILL SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS STRATIFORM RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR AREAS SE OF THE TURNPIKE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING.  NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK TO THE NORTH THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL AT BEST.  HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RENEWED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT....SO CONFIDENCE IN RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LOW.

WILL TOUCH UP GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ARRIVE AT KCNU
NEAR START OF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KHUT/KICT AT
THE ONSET OF FORECAST...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONE POTENTIAL CONCERN IS KICT/KHUT/KCNU
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND FRONT. RETURNING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSITE OF SITE
THROUGH 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 /  60  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 /  30  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 /  50  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  80  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  30  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  90  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 / 100  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 / 100  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 / 100  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 070314
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1014 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT INTO EXTREME SE KS AT THIS TIME.  STILL SEEING
LOTS OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST KS...TO THE SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE.  COULD STILL SEE SOME
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS STRATIFORM RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR AREAS SE OF THE TURNPIKE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUE MORNING.  NOT SURE HOW FAR BACK TO THE NORTH THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVERNIGHT...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE TOP OF THE
BOUNDARY IS MINIMAL AT BEST.  HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RENEWED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT....SO CONFIDENCE IN RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LOW.

WILL TOUCH UP GRIDS/FORECAST TO REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ARRIVE AT KCNU
NEAR START OF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KHUT/KICT AT
THE ONSET OF FORECAST...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONE POTENTIAL CONCERN IS KICT/KHUT/KCNU
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND FRONT. RETURNING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSITE OF SITE
THROUGH 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 /  60  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 /  30  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 /  50  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  80  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  30  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  90  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 / 100  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 / 100  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 / 100  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 062354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD POOL AND GOOD INSTABILITY/DCAPE AHEAD OF FRONT HAS ALLOWED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE SEVERE
THREAT WILL WAIN WITH LOSS OF HEATING/DCAPE. WILL CLEAR MORE OF
WATCH SHORTLY. -HOWERTON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ARRIVE AT KCNU
NEAR START OF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KHUT/KICT AT
THE ONSET OF FORECAST...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONE POTENTIAL CONCERN IS KICT/KHUT/KCNU
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND FRONT. RETURNING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSITE OF SITE
THROUGH 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 /  90  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 /  60  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 /  80  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  90  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  40  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  60  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  80  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 /  90  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 /  90  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 /  80  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 062354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
654 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD POOL AND GOOD INSTABILITY/DCAPE AHEAD OF FRONT HAS ALLOWED
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEAST A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE SEVERE
THREAT WILL WAIN WITH LOSS OF HEATING/DCAPE. WILL CLEAR MORE OF
WATCH SHORTLY. -HOWERTON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL ARRIVE AT KCNU
NEAR START OF PERIOD. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KHUT/KICT AT
THE ONSET OF FORECAST...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ONE POTENTIAL CONCERN IS KICT/KHUT/KCNU
COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP BETWEEN THUNDERSTORMS AND DRIER
AIR BEHIND FRONT. RETURNING FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSITE OF SITE
THROUGH 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 /  90  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 /  60  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 /  80  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  90  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  30  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  40  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  60  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  80  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 /  90  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 /  90  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 /  80  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062353
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
653 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN THIS EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND THEN INCREASE A BIT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BY 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  30  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  55  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  55  85 /  20  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  56  83 /  30  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 062348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO NEAR TERM AND AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH
WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERING OUT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THE MVFR TO CONTINUE FOR 1-4 HOURS AFTER SHOWERS END AND
THEN SCATTER OUT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP IF SKIES CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 062348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO NEAR TERM AND AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH
WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERING OUT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THE MVFR TO CONTINUE FOR 1-4 HOURS AFTER SHOWERS END AND
THEN SCATTER OUT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP IF SKIES CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 062348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO NEAR TERM AND AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH
WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERING OUT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THE MVFR TO CONTINUE FOR 1-4 HOURS AFTER SHOWERS END AND
THEN SCATTER OUT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP IF SKIES CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 062348
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO NEAR TERM AND AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND HAS BEEN EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE AT STABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TRAILING STRATIFORM PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WE WILL MONITOR FOR
ADDITIONAL POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY REDEVELOPMENT WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE
BUT COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH
WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERING OUT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THE MVFR TO CONTINUE FOR 1-4 HOURS AFTER SHOWERS END AND
THEN SCATTER OUT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS TO
DEVELOP IF SKIES CLEAR BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 062346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10MB AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  FORESEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
EAST AND OVER THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT IT DEEPENS.  AM THINKING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS.  DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE ELEVATED CAPE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE ATLEAST STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
NARROW AND STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST...SO FORESEE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
PLAINS AND FINALLY OVER THE ROCKIES.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST IT
WILL PUSH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
AND BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAVE CREATED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH MCK BEING DOWN TO IFR
AT 23Z. AS WINDS DECREASE OVERALL ADVECTION OF SMOKE SHOULD
DECREASE AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER...FLOW WUILL
BECOME STAGNANT SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE TO CONTINUE AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...SMALL
THREAT FOR MORNING FOG BUT DO NOT THINK THAT THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 062346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10MB AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  FORESEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
EAST AND OVER THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT IT DEEPENS.  AM THINKING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS.  DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE ELEVATED CAPE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE ATLEAST STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
NARROW AND STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST...SO FORESEE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
PLAINS AND FINALLY OVER THE ROCKIES.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST IT
WILL PUSH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
AND BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAVE CREATED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH MCK BEING DOWN TO IFR
AT 23Z. AS WINDS DECREASE OVERALL ADVECTION OF SMOKE SHOULD
DECREASE AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER...FLOW WUILL
BECOME STAGNANT SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE TO CONTINUE AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...SMALL
THREAT FOR MORNING FOG BUT DO NOT THINK THAT THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 062346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10MB AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  FORESEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
EAST AND OVER THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT IT DEEPENS.  AM THINKING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS.  DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE ELEVATED CAPE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE ATLEAST STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
NARROW AND STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST...SO FORESEE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
PLAINS AND FINALLY OVER THE ROCKIES.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST IT
WILL PUSH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
AND BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAVE CREATED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH MCK BEING DOWN TO IFR
AT 23Z. AS WINDS DECREASE OVERALL ADVECTION OF SMOKE SHOULD
DECREASE AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER...FLOW WUILL
BECOME STAGNANT SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE TO CONTINUE AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...SMALL
THREAT FOR MORNING FOG BUT DO NOT THINK THAT THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 062346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10MB AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  FORESEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
EAST AND OVER THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT IT DEEPENS.  AM THINKING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS.  DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE ELEVATED CAPE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE ATLEAST STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
NARROW AND STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST...SO FORESEE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
PLAINS AND FINALLY OVER THE ROCKIES.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST IT
WILL PUSH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
AND BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SMOKE PLUME FROM FIRES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAVE CREATED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH MCK BEING DOWN TO IFR
AT 23Z. AS WINDS DECREASE OVERALL ADVECTION OF SMOKE SHOULD
DECREASE AND EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER...FLOW WUILL
BECOME STAGNANT SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE TO CONTINUE AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE...SMALL
THREAT FOR MORNING FOG BUT DO NOT THINK THAT THREAT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ATTM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KICT 062048
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND MORE INTENSE AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH KSLN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND KICT AFTER 21Z. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVER CENTRAL KS(KRSL-
KSLN) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...IT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 / 100  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 / 100  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 / 100  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  90  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  50  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  80  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 /  90  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 /  90  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 /  80  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 062048
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND MORE INTENSE AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH KSLN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND KICT AFTER 21Z. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVER CENTRAL KS(KRSL-
KSLN) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...IT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS.

LAWSON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 / 100  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 / 100  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 / 100  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  90  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  50  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  80  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 /  90  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 /  90  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 /  80  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 062019
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KTOP 062019
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY EAST
AND NORTHEAST AND ARE ALSO LIKELY TO GAIN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIND SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION BUT COLD POOLS ARE ORGANIZING WELL AND SURGING EAST
WITH REPORTS TO 70 MPH ALREADY AND POCKETS OF 70 MPH OR STRONGER
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH REPORTS OF AT LEAST
TEMPORARY RATES OF 1.25 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES. THIS RAIN INTENSITY
IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INTENSIFY WITH RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST IS THE FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WITH WARNINGS
ONGOING, WILL FOCUS THE DISCUSSION ON THIS PERIOD.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE COLD POOL
ORGANIZATION AND PUSH OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING.
WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN AN ELEVATED NATURE BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT DO NOT EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE
MUCH BEYOND THE INITIAL SEVERE LINE. HOWEVER...THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE MID AND LONG TERM PERIOD HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF THE
FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LONG-LIVED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ALTHOUGH WITH LOWER END CONFIDENCE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. THE GFS IS THE DRY OUTLIER OF THE MODEL SUITE
WITH THE TREND BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BUT OTHER GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH WITH
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT IT WARRANTS WATCH
CONTINUATION.

THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT AND HEAT UP AS AN UPPER
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH/SANDERS
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 062003
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE AROUND
THIS SYSTEM AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCES APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN
SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER.
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  30
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  40
EHA  59  76  58  85 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  62  75  58  83 /  60  10  10  50
HYS  59  77  56  80 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  80 /  90  40  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061952
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10MB AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  FORESEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
EAST AND OVER THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT IT DEEPENS.  AM THINKING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS.  DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE ELEVATED CAPE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE ATLEAST STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
NARROW AND STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST...SO FORESEE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
PLAINS AND FINALLY OVER THE ROCKIES.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST IT
WILL PUSH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
AND BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061952
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10MB AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  FORESEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
EAST AND OVER THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT IT DEEPENS.  AM THINKING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS.  DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE ELEVATED CAPE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE ATLEAST STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
NARROW AND STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST...SO FORESEE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
PLAINS AND FINALLY OVER THE ROCKIES.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST IT
WILL PUSH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
AND BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061952
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10MB AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  FORESEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
EAST AND OVER THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT IT DEEPENS.  AM THINKING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS.  DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE ELEVATED CAPE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE ATLEAST STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
NARROW AND STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST...SO FORESEE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
PLAINS AND FINALLY OVER THE ROCKIES.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST IT
WILL PUSH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
AND BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061952
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA.  CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 10MB AS
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  FORESEE SOME WEAK SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL EJECT A SMALLER SCALE TROUGH
EAST AND OVER THE AREA.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT IT DEEPENS.  AM THINKING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS.  DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF 15 MPH AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT WANT TO GET TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THE ELEVATED CAPE...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE ATLEAST STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.  OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CAPE PROFILES ARE FAIRLY
NARROW AND STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST...SO FORESEE HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THURSDAY MORNING THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3
OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COUPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS TWO MORE UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EJECT OUT EAST OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE AREA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
PLAINS AND FINALLY OVER THE ROCKIES.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST IT
WILL PUSH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
AND BRING IN A WARMER AIR MASS.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MAY MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY...BUT
ASIDE FROM THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN AFTER FRIDAY WILL BE HOT AND
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE
PERSISTED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SOME LIGHT RW/DZ IS REMAINING MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...CLEARING OVER THE TRI STATE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO GO SLOW FROM THE NORTH...AIDED BY SURFACE RIDGE NOSING SOUTH AND
EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OUT INTO THE PLAINS
REGION. HAVE MENTIONED -RW/-DZ FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL STILL BE IN CLOUD
COVER DUE TO PROXIMITY OF EXITING FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE THINNING/LESSENING OF CURRENT CLOUD
SHIELD OVER THE AREA. WITH A NORTH-SOUTH CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE
GONE FOR COOLEST LOWS ACROSS THE NORTH...WARMEST SOUTH BUT ALL AREAS
WILL SEE 50S. WITH LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES AND
WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...HAVE
PUT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z-13Z.

FOR TUESDAY...ANOTHER COOL...NICE DAY ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE TRI
STATE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL PROVIDING COOLER AIR ON AN
EASTERLY FETCH. REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER COLORADO EXPECTED TO GIVE
WESTERN ZONES MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN FOR PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME
LIGHT RW FOR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND MIDDAY. 850 MB TEMPS +14C TO
+18C WILL AFFORD THE REGION DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S...COOLEST WEST
WHERE MORE CLOUD EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 061817
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  20
EHA  59  76  60  84 /  30  10  20  30
LBL  62  75  59  83 /  60  10  20  20
HYS  59  77  56  81 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  81 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 061817
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  20
EHA  59  76  60  84 /  30  10  20  30
LBL  62  75  59  83 /  60  10  20  20
HYS  59  77  56  81 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  81 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 061817
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  20
EHA  59  76  60  84 /  30  10  20  30
LBL  62  75  59  83 /  60  10  20  20
HYS  59  77  56  81 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  81 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 061817
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF OUR AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS. WITH ABUNDANT CAA OVERNIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE MID
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER
60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TREKS EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES COULD CONTINUE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND KS/OK BORDER BUT MOST
LIKELY THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TOMORROW WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  75  57  80 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  59  78  57  81 /  30  10  10  20
EHA  59  76  60  84 /  30  10  20  30
LBL  62  75  59  83 /  60  10  20  20
HYS  59  77  56  81 /  20  10  10  20
P28  65  73  61  81 /  90  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061806
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATE SENT TO DECREASE HIGHS FOR TODAY ON ACCOUNT OF LITTLE
MOVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST
HOURLIES DO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S
EAST...PUTTING SOME LOCALES ON TRACK FOR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS IF
CLOUD DECK DOES NOT THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON. KGLD LOW MAX STANDS
AT 71F/1960. OVERALL HAVE TAKEN ENTIRE CWA DOWN 2-4 DEGREES. REST
OF FORECAST GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061806
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATE SENT TO DECREASE HIGHS FOR TODAY ON ACCOUNT OF LITTLE
MOVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST
HOURLIES DO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOW 70S
EAST...PUTTING SOME LOCALES ON TRACK FOR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS IF
CLOUD DECK DOES NOT THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON. KGLD LOW MAX STANDS
AT 71F/1960. OVERALL HAVE TAKEN ENTIRE CWA DOWN 2-4 DEGREES. REST
OF FORECAST GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 061741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KTOP 061741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KTOP 061741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KTOP 061741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KTOP 061741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 061741
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THE PUSH FROM THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE TERMINALS FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME
GENERALLY ADVANCING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AFTER THAT, MORE
WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VARYING VIS/CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND THEN A PERIOD OF IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING EARLY BEFORE GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER AROUND THE 14Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KICT 061740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH KEEPING UP WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS
TODAY OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
THOSE UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN BY A
FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THINKING THAT PRECIP WILL NOT
MAKE IT DOWN TO WICHITA UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 4 PM WITH SE KS
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND MORE INTENSE AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH KSLN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND KICT AFTER 21Z. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVER CENTRAL KS(KRSL-
KSLN) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...IT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  65  74  62 /  60  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      93  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          94  63  73  61 /  70  90  40  40
ELDORADO        95  65  73  62 /  50  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  65  74  63 /  40  90  60  60
RUSSELL         85  61  77  57 /  70  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          93  64  77  60 /  80  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  30  90  80  90
CHANUTE         90  67  73  65 /  30  90  80  80
IOLA            90  67  72  64 /  40  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    90  68  74  65 /  30  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 061740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH KEEPING UP WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS
TODAY OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
THOSE UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN BY A
FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THINKING THAT PRECIP WILL NOT
MAKE IT DOWN TO WICHITA UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 4 PM WITH SE KS
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND MORE INTENSE AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH KSLN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND KICT AFTER 21Z. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVER CENTRAL KS(KRSL-
KSLN) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...IT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  65  74  62 /  60  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      93  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          94  63  73  61 /  70  90  40  40
ELDORADO        95  65  73  62 /  50  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  65  74  63 /  40  90  60  60
RUSSELL         85  61  77  57 /  70  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          93  64  77  60 /  80  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  30  90  80  90
CHANUTE         90  67  73  65 /  30  90  80  80
IOLA            90  67  72  64 /  40  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    90  68  74  65 /  30  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061735
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT...BUT HAVE KEPT IN --RW AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AS LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ANY
MAY DECIDE TO DROP HIGHS FOR THE DAY IF TREND HOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061735
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1135 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT...BUT HAVE KEPT IN --RW AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AS LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ANY
MAY DECIDE TO DROP HIGHS FOR THE DAY IF TREND HOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A MVFR/IFR MIX THRU 20Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY
BKN015-025...ALTHOUGH BKN009 POSSIBLE WITH 5SM IN FOG AND
SPRINKLE/SHOWER. AFT 20Z...TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH
BKN050-060 THRU 00Z TONIGHT...THEN SCT-BKN100-120. 6SM IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP BY 12Z TUESDAY. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z TONIGHT
THEN NE 5-10KTS SHIFTING TO THE ESE 5-10KTS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 061728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  70  60  20  10
GCK  78  59  79  57 /  70  30  10  10
EHA  79  59  78  60 /  60  40  20  20
LBL  83  62  78  59 /  70  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  70  30  10  10
P28  94  64  76  61 /  90  90  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 061728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  70  60  20  10
GCK  78  59  79  57 /  70  30  10  10
EHA  79  59  78  60 /  60  40  20  20
LBL  83  62  78  59 /  70  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  70  30  10  10
P28  94  64  76  61 /  90  90  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 061728
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS. MID TO LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HYS TERMINAL
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER TERMINALS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  70  60  20  10
GCK  78  59  79  57 /  70  30  10  10
EHA  79  59  78  60 /  60  40  20  20
LBL  83  62  78  59 /  70  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  70  30  10  10
P28  94  64  76  61 /  90  90  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KICT 061657
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH KEEPING UP WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS
TODAY OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
THOSE UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN BY A
FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THINKING THAT PRECIP WILL NOT
MAKE IT DOWN TO WICHITA UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 4 PM WITH SE KS
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO FAR NORTHWEST KS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...REACHING
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING ALONG FRONT TOWARD EVENING AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
CELLS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  65  74  62 /  60  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      93  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          94  63  73  61 /  70  90  40  40
ELDORADO        95  65  73  62 /  50  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  65  74  63 /  40  90  60  60
RUSSELL         85  61  77  57 /  70  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          93  64  77  60 /  80  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  30  90  80  90
CHANUTE         90  67  73  65 /  30  90  80  80
IOLA            90  67  72  64 /  40  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    90  68  74  65 /  30  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 061657
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH KEEPING UP WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS
TODAY OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
THOSE UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN BY A
FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THINKING THAT PRECIP WILL NOT
MAKE IT DOWN TO WICHITA UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 4 PM WITH SE KS
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO FAR NORTHWEST KS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...REACHING
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING ALONG FRONT TOWARD EVENING AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
CELLS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  65  74  62 /  60  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      93  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          94  63  73  61 /  70  90  40  40
ELDORADO        95  65  73  62 /  50  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  65  74  63 /  40  90  60  60
RUSSELL         85  61  77  57 /  70  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          93  64  77  60 /  80  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  30  90  80  90
CHANUTE         90  67  73  65 /  30  90  80  80
IOLA            90  67  72  64 /  40  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    90  68  74  65 /  30  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 061657
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH KEEPING UP WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS
TODAY OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
THOSE UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN BY A
FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THINKING THAT PRECIP WILL NOT
MAKE IT DOWN TO WICHITA UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 4 PM WITH SE KS
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO FAR NORTHWEST KS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...REACHING
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING ALONG FRONT TOWARD EVENING AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
CELLS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  65  74  62 /  60  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      93  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          94  63  73  61 /  70  90  40  40
ELDORADO        95  65  73  62 /  50  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  65  74  63 /  40  90  60  60
RUSSELL         85  61  77  57 /  70  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          93  64  77  60 /  80  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  30  90  80  90
CHANUTE         90  67  73  65 /  30  90  80  80
IOLA            90  67  72  64 /  40  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    90  68  74  65 /  30  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 061657
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH KEEPING UP WITH CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY AT OR VERY CLOSE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS
TODAY OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED
THOSE UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF LESS CLOUD
COVER THAN EXPECTED. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS TO SLOW THINGS DOWN BY A
FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THINKING THAT PRECIP WILL NOT
MAKE IT DOWN TO WICHITA UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 4 PM WITH SE KS
REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO FAR NORTHWEST KS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...REACHING
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING ALONG FRONT TOWARD EVENING AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
CELLS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

JMC


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    94  65  74  62 /  60  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      93  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          94  63  73  61 /  70  90  40  40
ELDORADO        95  65  73  62 /  50  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  65  74  63 /  40  90  60  60
RUSSELL         85  61  77  57 /  70  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      87  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          93  64  77  60 /  80  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  30  90  80  90
CHANUTE         90  67  73  65 /  30  90  80  80
IOLA            90  67  72  64 /  40  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    90  68  74  65 /  30  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061555
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
955 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT...BUT HAVE KEPT IN --RW AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AS LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ANY
MAY DECIDE TO DROP HIGHS FOR THE DAY IF TREND HOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061555
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
955 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT...BUT HAVE KEPT IN --RW AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AS LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ANY
MAY DECIDE TO DROP HIGHS FOR THE DAY IF TREND HOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061555
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
955 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT...BUT HAVE KEPT IN --RW AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AS LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ANY
MAY DECIDE TO DROP HIGHS FOR THE DAY IF TREND HOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061555
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
955 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONT...BUT HAVE KEPT IN --RW AND EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG AS LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 60S ANY
MAY DECIDE TO DROP HIGHS FOR THE DAY IF TREND HOLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
720 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...LEAVING EASTERN ZONES WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDER THRU THE MORNING HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA ARE EXITING QUICKLY AND WILL UPDATE LATER TO
TREND PRECIP OFF FURTHER. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER DOES REMAIN THOUGH
AND WILL POTENTIALLY HAMPER TEMPS AS WELL AS POPS AS SOME -DZ/--RW
MAY REMAIN IF WE DO NOT CLEAR FULLY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061320
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
720 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE...HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA...LEAVING EASTERN ZONES WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDER THRU THE MORNING HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA ARE EXITING QUICKLY AND WILL UPDATE LATER TO
TREND PRECIP OFF FURTHER. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER DOES REMAIN THOUGH
AND WILL POTENTIALLY HAMPER TEMPS AS WELL AS POPS AS SOME -DZ/--RW
MAY REMAIN IF WE DO NOT CLEAR FULLY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KTOP 061142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WITH
SHRA AS TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS IN THE 20Z-04Z TIME
PERIOD. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AT MHK IN THE 19Z-20Z PERIOD AND
IN THE 23Z-01Z PERIOD AT TOP AND FOE WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53



000
FXUS63 KTOP 061142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WITH
SHRA AS TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS IN THE 20Z-04Z TIME
PERIOD. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AT MHK IN THE 19Z-20Z PERIOD AND
IN THE 23Z-01Z PERIOD AT TOP AND FOE WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 061142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WITH
SHRA AS TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS IN THE 20Z-04Z TIME
PERIOD. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AT MHK IN THE 19Z-20Z PERIOD AND
IN THE 23Z-01Z PERIOD AT TOP AND FOE WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53



000
FXUS63 KTOP 061142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WITH
SHRA AS TSRA MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS IN THE 20Z-04Z TIME
PERIOD. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED AT MHK IN THE 19Z-20Z PERIOD AND
IN THE 23Z-01Z PERIOD AT TOP AND FOE WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER 01Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAIN SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AN END. FOR KGLD...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR BY 16Z AND STAY THAT WAY UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY UNTIL 01Z.

FOR KMCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z. AFTER THAT
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS WITH KMCK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL END NEAR 01Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KICT 061113
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO FAR NORTHWEST KS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...REACHING
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING ALONG FRONT TOWARD EVENING AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
CELLS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  65  74  62 /  70  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      88  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          88  63  73  61 /  80  90  40  40
ELDORADO        89  65  73  62 /  70  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  65  74  63 /  70  90  60  60
RUSSELL         83  61  77  57 /  80  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      84  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          87  64  77  60 /  90  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  50  90  80  90
CHANUTE         89  67  73  65 /  70  90  80  80
IOLA            89  67  72  64 /  70  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    89  68  74  65 /  60  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 061113
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA TO FAR NORTHWEST KS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...REACHING
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IN CENTRAL
KANSAS AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING ALONG FRONT TOWARD EVENING AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED NEAR THIS FRONT TONIGHT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES...WITH
STRONG/VARIABLE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORM
CELLS. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  65  74  62 /  70  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      88  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          88  63  73  61 /  80  90  40  40
ELDORADO        89  65  73  62 /  70  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  65  74  63 /  70  90  60  60
RUSSELL         83  61  77  57 /  80  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      84  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          87  64  77  60 /  90  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  50  90  80  90
CHANUTE         89  67  73  65 /  70  90  80  80
IOLA            89  67  72  64 /  70  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    89  68  74  65 /  60  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 061100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE KGCK/KDDC
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR KHYS, WHERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER AROUND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15-25 KT BETWEEN 12Z-
18Z AND THEN NORTHERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  60  70  20  10
GCK  80  60  79  57 /  40  40  10  10
EHA  81  59  78  60 /  40  50  20  20
LBL  85  62  78  59 /  60  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  60  50  10  10
P28  90  64  76  61 /  70  80  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 061100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE KGCK/KDDC
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR KHYS, WHERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER AROUND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15-25 KT BETWEEN 12Z-
18Z AND THEN NORTHERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  60  70  20  10
GCK  80  60  79  57 /  40  40  10  10
EHA  81  59  78  60 /  40  50  20  20
LBL  85  62  78  59 /  60  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  60  50  10  10
P28  90  64  76  61 /  70  80  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 061100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE KGCK/KDDC
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR KHYS, WHERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER AROUND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15-25 KT BETWEEN 12Z-
18Z AND THEN NORTHERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  60  70  20  10
GCK  80  60  79  57 /  40  40  10  10
EHA  81  59  78  60 /  40  50  20  20
LBL  85  62  78  59 /  60  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  60  50  10  10
P28  90  64  76  61 /  70  80  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 061100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. CIGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE KGCK/KDDC
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR KHYS, WHERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO VEER AROUND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 15-25 KT BETWEEN 12Z-
18Z AND THEN NORTHERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  60  70  20  10
GCK  80  60  79  57 /  40  40  10  10
EHA  81  59  78  60 /  40  50  20  20
LBL  85  62  78  59 /  60  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  60  50  10  10
P28  90  64  76  61 /  70  80  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 061012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 061012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE
FLOW HAS FLATTENED OUT OVER THE AREA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A DEEP AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES OVER THE AREA

AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE.  AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
AND NAM. THE NAM WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE
OUTPUT ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO
START OUT A LITTLE WARM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WITH THE
CANADIAN THE CLOSEST TO REALITY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT HAS
MADE IT TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE AREA BY EARLY TODAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE COOLED OFF HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY BRING IN
THE COLD AIR. THAT AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY AFFECT HOW
WARM IT GETS. RIGHT NOW THE COOLER AIR LOOKS LIKE IT ARRIVES IN THE
AFTERNOON. THAT COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH IF AT ALL.

LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT.
HOW COOL IT GETS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HOW FAST IT CLEARS. WOULD BE
MORE CONFIDENT OF IT CLEARING FASTER IF THE WEAK JET LIFT WERE NOT
AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO HANG ON THE LONGEST
IN THE SOUTH. COOLED OFF THE LOWS WITH THE WARMEST IN THE SOUTH.
NO MATTER WHAT THESE ARE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR JULY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET LIFT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE
DAY BUT STILL NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE AREA
REMAINS UNDER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THE
DAY SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO STAY DRY. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND A
COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL. SO ENDED UP COOLING THE TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE.

MODELS MOVE THE 700 MB RIDGE SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE NIGHT. DURING
THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SINCE
THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE HERE...IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT...
AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN BUT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE IN
THE WEST. BELIEVE THE COOLEST WILL BE IN THE EAST AND OVERALL COOL
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING AND WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF. SO
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THERE. SUBSIDENCE MOVES
IN BEHIND THIS WAVE. HOWEVER THAT DOES NOT LAST FOR LONG.

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE FAR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
LIFT AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.

TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG
THE RAINFALL LASTS ALONG WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.
ONCE AGAIN THE WINDS WILL BE FROM AN UPSLOPE DIRECTION. I COOLED
THE MAXES OFF AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KTOP 060844
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
SOMEWHAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KTOP 060844
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
SOMEWHAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KTOP 060844
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
SOMEWHAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KTOP 060844
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
SOMEWHAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KTOP 060844
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 08Z A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES, HEATING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL AT BEST. HOWEVER EXPECT
MORE OF A LOCALIZED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH HAIL AROUND AN
INCH POSSIBLE. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
LAWRENCE AREA INTO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH STARTING AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAWRENCE TO EMPORIA LINE WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE
PROLONGED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN A
VERY SHORT TIME WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCALS REACHING THE LOWER
90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXPECTING A GENERAL DRYING TREND TUESDAY, THOUGH SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIKELY NOT FAR TO THE SOUTH COULD KEEP SOME PERSISTENCE IN
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP IN SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERALL MODELS TRENDING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPING WITH SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONT ALOFT SHIFTING BACK NORTH. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE KINEMATIC RESPONSE WITH EVEN IT STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL GIVEN POSSIBILITIES OF RATHER
WET GROUND FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL RAIN TUESDAY,
AND THIS RESPECTABLE SUMMER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH, COULD SEE FLOOD POTENTIAL RISE IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE OF A LONGER RESPONSE/LARGER WATER BODY
CONCERN BY THIS POINT VERSUS A QUICK RISE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY. CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
QUITE COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD LOWEST MAX
LEVELS.

ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER WAVE COMING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AROUND THURSDAY WITH AIRMASS RECOVERING TO ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO SET UP OVER THE STATE. OF COURSE SPECIFICS AT THIS RANGE ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN, BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST PULSE SEVERE STORMS
WITH MODERATE CAPE/WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SETUP THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO. UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.
NEXT BEST RAIN CHANCE COMES AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
SOMEWHAT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KGLD 060824
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 060824
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITH THE MAIN FLOW COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEEP SATURATION...WHICH WOULD INDICATE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...SO THERE WILL BE MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT VARY BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB.  SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MUCH LESS
CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE VIA GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
700 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 12 AND 15C.  WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
LACKING...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN HELPING
CONVECTION TO BREAK THE CAP AND DEVELOP STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.  THE ECMWF FORECAST HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO TENDED TO
SIDE MORE WITH THIS PARTICULAR MODEL IN KEEPING THE FORECAST MOSTLY
DRY.  WITH THE BROAD RIDGE RETROGRADING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KDDC 060807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  70  70  20  10
GCK  80  60  79  57 /  50  40  10  10
EHA  81  59  78  60 /  50  50  20  20
LBL  85  62  78  59 /  70  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  60  50  10  10
P28  90  64  76  61 /  90  80  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 060807
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN ISSUE LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS, LOW LYING AREAS, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. SOUTH OF A STAFFORD TO COLDWATER LINE. THE 24HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM OF A ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES BETWEEN NOON MONDAY AND NOON TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON WHERE THIS BAND
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SO GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS YET BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  60  78  57 /  70  70  20  10
GCK  80  60  79  57 /  50  40  10  10
EHA  81  59  78  60 /  50  50  20  20
LBL  85  62  78  59 /  70  60  20  20
HYS  81  59  78  56 /  60  50  10  10
P28  90  64  76  61 /  90  80  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
HYDROLOGY...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KICT 060805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY
AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z
AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  65  74  62 /  70  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      88  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          88  63  73  61 /  80  90  40  40
ELDORADO        89  65  73  62 /  70  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  65  74  63 /  70  90  60  60
RUSSELL         83  61  77  57 /  80  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      84  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          87  64  77  60 /  90  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  50  90  80  90
CHANUTE         89  67  73  65 /  70  90  80  80
IOLA            89  67  72  64 /  70  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    89  68  74  65 /  60  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 060805
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH
WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS
EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING
THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.  MINIMAL CINH/STRONG
BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE
99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH
DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT
AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES APPEARS LIKELY.

TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS
WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING
THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY
AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z
AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  65  74  62 /  70  90  40  50
HUTCHINSON      88  63  75  60 /  80  90  30  30
NEWTON          88  63  73  61 /  80  90  40  40
ELDORADO        89  65  73  62 /  70  90  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  65  74  63 /  70  90  60  60
RUSSELL         83  61  77  57 /  80  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      84  61  76  59 /  80  60  10  20
SALINA          87  64  77  60 /  90  80  10  20
MCPHERSON       87  62  75  60 /  80  80  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     90  69  75  65 /  50  90  80  90
CHANUTE         89  67  73  65 /  70  90  80  80
IOLA            89  67  72  64 /  70  90  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    89  68  74  65 /  60  90  80  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 060706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  62  78  58 /  80  60  10  10
GCK  84  61  80  58 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  80  61  79  60 /  40  20  10  20
LBL  85  64  78  60 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  82  60  79  56 /  70  30  10  10
P28  90  64  78  62 /  80  90  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 060706
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH MOVING
THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS/NORTHEAST COLORADO BY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY 12Z MONDAY. THE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE AXIS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EAST SO GIVEN COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN NORTHEAST
COLORADO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED DURING THE PREDAWN/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THESE
EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH UNDER +14C TO +15C
700MB TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE RAP AND NAM. THE COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WILL BE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TODAY CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS. WILL HOWEVER FOCUS THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WHERE THE WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AT 18Z MONDAY. 4KM NAM, ARW, AND NMM ALL
ALSO SEEM TO BE TRENDING IN THIS WAY.

CONVECTION WILL IMPROVE TOWARDS 21Z AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL FORCING MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
THROUGH LATE DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. 0-1KM FORCING ALSO WILL BE IMPROVING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE RAP AND NAM TO BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS. GIVEN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FORCING, COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF DODGE CITY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT
AT LESS THAN 45 DEGREES THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE APPEARS TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE DOWNDRAFT CAPE FROM THE RAP THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEAR THE
MAIN HAZARD LATE TODAY WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS,
WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS
HAS PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1.5INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF
STORMS BECOME LINEAR EARLY IN THE EVENT THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR TRAINING OF STORMS LATE TODAY, MAINLY IN THE PRATT,
MEDICINE LODGE AND COLDWATER AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME WATER
ISSUES LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. INITAL THOUGHTS ARE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCH PRODUCTS JUST YET. WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AS THE NEW 6Z INFORMATION COMES IN AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, HOWEVER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON MID LEVEL FORCING, LOCATION OF THE 700MB-
500MB DEFORMATION ZONE, AND A 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY.
STEADY RAIN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

TUESDAY STILL APPEARS COOL. LINGER PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT A CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE DAY. 850MB MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S, HOWEVER GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR AND SOME AFTERNOON
SUN POSSIBLE A RELUCTANT TO GO MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT THE LATEST
MET GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AND UP SLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MAY GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN KANSAS, ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME BUT NOT AS COOL AS HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ANY SUBTLE
WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ANY DAY THEY CROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION TO A CHANCE FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A WARMING TREND IS ALSO EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND PERIOD.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  62  78  58 /  80  60  10  10
GCK  84  61  80  58 /  60  20  10  10
EHA  80  61  79  60 /  40  20  10  20
LBL  85  64  78  60 /  40  20  10  10
HYS  82  60  79  56 /  70  30  10  10
P28  90  64  78  62 /  80  90  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 060549
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1249 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 00Z MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST, AND A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MONTANA. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS OF 03Z, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. WARM 700MB
TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED AT 00Z MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. DODGE CITY REPORTED +15C, NORTH PLATTE +16C. THE AXIS OF
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WEST TO EAST
NORTHEAST COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WYOMING TO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  78  58  80 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  61  80  58  81 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  61  79  60  84 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  64  78  60  82 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  60  79  56  81 /  30  10  10  10
P28  64  78  62  80 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 060549
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1249 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AT 00Z MONDAY AN UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST, AND A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MONTANA. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO WITH CONVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AS OF 03Z, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. WARM 700MB
TEMPERATURES WERE REPORTED AT 00Z MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. DODGE CITY REPORTED +15C, NORTH PLATTE +16C. THE AXIS OF
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A WEST TO EAST
NORTHEAST COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WYOMING TO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY MORNING. WINDS
AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH 12Z AT GCK, AND 15Z-18Z AT DDC AND HYS. BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL THREE TAF SITES FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BELOW 5000FT AGL DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IMPROVES.
BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER EARLY
TONIGHT WITH LOW MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  78  58  80 /  60  10  10  10
GCK  61  80  58  81 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  61  79  60  84 /  20  10  20  20
LBL  64  78  60  82 /  20  10  10  20
HYS  60  79  56  81 /  30  10  10  10
P28  64  78  62  80 /  90  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KGLD 060525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 060525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 060525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 060525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 060525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 060525
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MOVING INTO SW NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS. POCKETS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION AS BEST FORCING AND CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS SHOW BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR...SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT VCTS MENTION. WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE I ALSO LINGERED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS 1500-2500 KFT CIGS DEVELOPING
10-12Z AND LINGERING THROUGH 16Z...SO I KEPT MENTION. I ALSO
INTRODUCED A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL SHEER AT KMCK DURING THE
EARLY TAF PERIOD WITH LLJ OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
AFTER WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AT KMCK. IN FACT WITH
BETTER MIXING IT IS POSSIBLE KMCK COULD SEE GUSTS 38-40KT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...JOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KTOP 060450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS
UP IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY NEW
00Z GUIDANCE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST AND UNCAPPED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME LINEAR IN NATURE. BASED ON
00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECASTED POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...JOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KICT 060442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED STORMS FINALLY DEVELOPED IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS OVER
EXTREME SE KS THIS EVENING. STORMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...REGENERATING ON ANY OUTFLOW THAT DEVELOPS.  DO NOT
THINK THE STORMS WILL LAST MUCH PAST SUNSET...AS HEATING OF THE DAY
IS LOST AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ISNT ALL THAT FOCUSED.  WILL KEEP A
ISOLATED STORM MENTION IN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KS...AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYS FOCUSED IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO KS BY MON MORNING.
CURRENT GIRD/FORECAST HAS POPS IN CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
LOOKS OKAY...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO FAST...GIVEN LACK OF ANY MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS AREA. WILL TRIM BACK THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE POPS...AS THINK ANY CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 UNTIL SUNRISE ON MON.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND DURATION AND THE
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP...SO MAY KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF ACROSS KANSAS...THE COMBO OF DIURNAL
HEATING/STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE DARK...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LENDING TO EFFICIENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY
AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z
AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

KETCHAMRAIN PRODUCERS WITH A PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR PUSHING CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH A BIT QUICKER INTO TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH RAPID
TRANSITION TO A DRY FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND/OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME
NORTHWARD MIGRATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO RENEW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT AND
RETURNING MOISTURE ALSO ENCOUNTER A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE IN THE
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL AVERAGE MUCH BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THERE IS GENERAL SUPPORT FOR A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR MOST AREAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY
AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z
AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  89  65  76 /  10  70  90  40
HUTCHINSON      73  88  64  77 /  10  80  90  30
NEWTON          73  88  64  75 /  10  80  90  30
ELDORADO        73  89  65  75 /  10  70  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  66  76 /  10  50  90  60
RUSSELL         72  83  62  79 /  30  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      72  84  62  78 /  20  80  60  10
SALINA          74  87  63  79 /  20  80  80  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  63  77 /  10  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  90  69  77 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         72  89  67  75 /  10  40  90  70
IOLA            72  89  67  74 /  10  40  90  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  89  68  76 /  10  30  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 060442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED STORMS FINALLY DEVELOPED IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS OVER
EXTREME SE KS THIS EVENING. STORMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...REGENERATING ON ANY OUTFLOW THAT DEVELOPS.  DO NOT
THINK THE STORMS WILL LAST MUCH PAST SUNSET...AS HEATING OF THE DAY
IS LOST AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ISNT ALL THAT FOCUSED.  WILL KEEP A
ISOLATED STORM MENTION IN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KS...AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYS FOCUSED IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO KS BY MON MORNING.
CURRENT GIRD/FORECAST HAS POPS IN CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
LOOKS OKAY...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO FAST...GIVEN LACK OF ANY MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS AREA. WILL TRIM BACK THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE POPS...AS THINK ANY CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 UNTIL SUNRISE ON MON.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND DURATION AND THE
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP...SO MAY KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF ACROSS KANSAS...THE COMBO OF DIURNAL
HEATING/STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE DARK...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LENDING TO EFFICIENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY
AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z
AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

KETCHAMRAIN PRODUCERS WITH A PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR PUSHING CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH A BIT QUICKER INTO TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH RAPID
TRANSITION TO A DRY FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND/OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME
NORTHWARD MIGRATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO RENEW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT AND
RETURNING MOISTURE ALSO ENCOUNTER A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE IN THE
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL AVERAGE MUCH BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THERE IS GENERAL SUPPORT FOR A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR MOST AREAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY
AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z
AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  89  65  76 /  10  70  90  40
HUTCHINSON      73  88  64  77 /  10  80  90  30
NEWTON          73  88  64  75 /  10  80  90  30
ELDORADO        73  89  65  75 /  10  70  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  66  76 /  10  50  90  60
RUSSELL         72  83  62  79 /  30  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      72  84  62  78 /  20  80  60  10
SALINA          74  87  63  79 /  20  80  80  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  63  77 /  10  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  90  69  77 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         72  89  67  75 /  10  40  90  70
IOLA            72  89  67  74 /  10  40  90  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  89  68  76 /  10  30  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 060231
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
931 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED STORMS FINALLY DEVELOPED IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS OVER
EXTREME SE KS THIS EVENING. STORMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...REGENERATING ON ANY OUTFLOW THAT DEVELOPS.  DO NOT
THINK THE STORMS WILL LAST MUCH PAST SUNSET...AS HEATING OF THE DAY
IS LOST AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ISNT ALL THAT FOCUSED.  WILL KEEP A
ISOLATED STORM MENTION IN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KS...AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYS FOCUSED IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO KS BY MON MORNING.
CURRENT GIRD/FORECAST HAS POPS IN CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
LOOKS OKAY...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO FAST...GIVEN LACK OF ANY MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS AREA. WILL TRIM BACK THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE POPS...AS THINK ANY CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 UNTIL SUNRISE ON MON.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND DURATION AND THE
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP...SO MAY KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF ACROSS KANSAS...THE COMBO OF DIURNAL
HEATING/STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE DARK...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LENDING TO EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH A BIT QUICKER INTO TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH RAPID TRANSITION TO A DRY
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND/OR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME NORTHWARD MIGRATION
ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO RENEW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT AND RETURNING MOISTURE
ALSO ENCOUNTER A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE IN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THERE IS GENERAL SUPPORT FOR A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR MOST AREAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY
BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME SE KS BEFORE SUNSET...BUT
THIS CHANCE APPEARS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE KCNU TAF.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON...REACHING KRSL AND
KSLN BY AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTALIBITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MON AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY
AROUND 18Z AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON.
WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. BUT THIS CHANCE WILL BE BEYOND THIS
TAF ISSUANCE.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  89  65  76 /  10  70  90  40
HUTCHINSON      73  88  64  77 /  10  80  90  30
NEWTON          73  88  64  75 /  10  80  90  30
ELDORADO        73  89  65  75 /  10  70  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  66  76 /  10  50  90  60
RUSSELL         72  83  62  79 /  30  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      72  84  62  78 /  20  80  60  10
SALINA          74  87  63  79 /  20  80  80  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  63  77 /  10  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  90  69  77 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         72  89  67  75 /  10  40  90  70
IOLA            72  89  67  74 /  10  40  90  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  89  68  76 /  10  30  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 060141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
741 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS...WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WINDS DOWN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH WINDS AND MIXING LIMITING ANY FOG POTENTIAL AT
BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS 1500-2500 KFT
CIGS...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF 500-1000 KFT IF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS EARLIER AND BL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG. THIS STATUS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPACT THE AREA IN THE 10-16Z
TIME PERIOD DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 060141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
741 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS...WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WINDS DOWN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH WINDS AND MIXING LIMITING ANY FOG POTENTIAL AT
BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS 1500-2500 KFT
CIGS...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF 500-1000 KFT IF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS EARLIER AND BL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG. THIS STATUS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPACT THE AREA IN THE 10-16Z
TIME PERIOD DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 060141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
741 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS...WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WINDS DOWN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH WINDS AND MIXING LIMITING ANY FOG POTENTIAL AT
BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS 1500-2500 KFT
CIGS...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF 500-1000 KFT IF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS EARLIER AND BL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG. THIS STATUS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPACT THE AREA IN THE 10-16Z
TIME PERIOD DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 060141
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
741 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPDATED POP/WX TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO FAR MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG AND EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH...THOUGH OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN
CONTINUED EXPANSION TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE...WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL I DECREASED COVERAGE IN THE NW THIS
EVENING AND ADJUSTED TIMING OVERALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS...WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WINDS DOWN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH WINDS AND MIXING LIMITING ANY FOG POTENTIAL AT
BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS 1500-2500 KFT
CIGS...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF 500-1000 KFT IF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS EARLIER AND BL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG. THIS STATUS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPACT THE AREA IN THE 10-16Z
TIME PERIOD DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KDDC 052332
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ALONG THE FRONT, AND WE WILL CARRY A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC,
HYS). AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH, PREVAILING WIND WILL
BE FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  86  62  78 /  10  80  60  10
GCK  71  84  61  80 /  30  60  20  10
EHA  69  80  61  79 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  72  85  64  78 /  20  40  20  10
HYS  72  82  60  79 /  30  70  30  10
P28  74  90  64  78 /  10  80  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 052332
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ALONG THE FRONT, AND WE WILL CARRY A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC,
HYS). AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH, PREVAILING WIND WILL
BE FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  86  62  78 /  10  80  60  10
GCK  71  84  61  80 /  30  60  20  10
EHA  69  80  61  79 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  72  85  64  78 /  20  40  20  10
HYS  72  82  60  79 /  30  70  30  10
P28  74  90  64  78 /  10  80  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 052332
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AVERAGING AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY ALONG THE FRONT, AND WE WILL CARRY A
PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (GCK, DDC,
HYS). AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH, PREVAILING WIND WILL
BE FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  86  62  78 /  10  80  60  10
GCK  71  84  61  80 /  30  60  20  10
EHA  69  80  61  79 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  72  85  64  78 /  20  40  20  10
HYS  72  82  60  79 /  30  70  30  10
P28  74  90  64  78 /  10  80  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KGLD 052324
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS...WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WINDS DOWN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH WINDS AND MIXING LIMITING ANY FOG POTENTIAL AT
BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS 1500-2500 KFT
CIGS...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF 500-1000 KFT IF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS EARLIER AND BL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG. THIS STATUS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPACT THE AREA IN THE 10-16Z
TIME PERIOD DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KTOP 052320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT SSE
BOUNDARY FLOW. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT SO VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...JONHSON



000
FXUS63 KTOP 052320
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL REMAIN DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT SSE
BOUNDARY FLOW. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST
TONIGHT SO VFR CONDITIONS. FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...JONHSON




000
FXUS63 KICT 052257
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
557 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND DURATION AND THE
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP...SO MAY KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF ACROSS KANSAS...THE COMBO OF DIURNAL
HEATING/STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE DARK...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LENDING TO EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH A BIT QUICKER INTO TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH RAPID TRANSITION TO A DRY
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND/OR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME NORTHWARD MIGRATION
ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO RENEW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT AND RETURNING MOISTURE
ALSO ENCOUNTER A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE IN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THERE IS GENERAL SUPPORT FOR A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR MOST AREAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY
BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME SE KS BEFORE SUNSET...BUT
THIS CHANCE APPEARS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE KCNU TAF.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON...REACHING KRSL AND
KSLN BY AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTALIBITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MON AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY
AROUND 18Z AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON.
WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. BUT THIS CHANCE WILL BE BEYOND THIS
TAF ISSUANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  89  65  76 /  10  70  90  40
HUTCHINSON      73  88  64  77 /  10  80  90  30
NEWTON          73  88  64  75 /  10  80  90  30
ELDORADO        73  89  65  75 /  10  70  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  66  76 /  10  50  90  60
RUSSELL         72  83  62  79 /  30  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      72  84  62  78 /  30  80  60  10
SALINA          74  87  63  79 /  20  80  80  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  63  77 /  10  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  90  69  77 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         72  89  67  75 /  10  40  90  70
IOLA            72  89  67  74 /  10  40  90  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  89  68  76 /  10  30  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 052257
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
557 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND DURATION AND THE
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP...SO MAY KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF ACROSS KANSAS...THE COMBO OF DIURNAL
HEATING/STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE DARK...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LENDING TO EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH A BIT QUICKER INTO TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH RAPID TRANSITION TO A DRY
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND/OR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME NORTHWARD MIGRATION
ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO RENEW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT AND RETURNING MOISTURE
ALSO ENCOUNTER A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE IN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THERE IS GENERAL SUPPORT FOR A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR MOST AREAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY
BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME SE KS BEFORE SUNSET...BUT
THIS CHANCE APPEARS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE KCNU TAF.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON...REACHING KRSL AND
KSLN BY AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTALIBITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MON AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY
AROUND 18Z AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON.
WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. BUT THIS CHANCE WILL BE BEYOND THIS
TAF ISSUANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  89  65  76 /  10  70  90  40
HUTCHINSON      73  88  64  77 /  10  80  90  30
NEWTON          73  88  64  75 /  10  80  90  30
ELDORADO        73  89  65  75 /  10  70  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  66  76 /  10  50  90  60
RUSSELL         72  83  62  79 /  30  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      72  84  62  78 /  30  80  60  10
SALINA          74  87  63  79 /  20  80  80  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  63  77 /  10  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  90  69  77 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         72  89  67  75 /  10  40  90  70
IOLA            72  89  67  74 /  10  40  90  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  89  68  76 /  10  30  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 052045
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TEND TO RAIN THEMSELVES
OUT THROUGHOUT PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL
LOCATIONS AFTER THE CURRENT STORM WEST OF KTOP/KFOE VICINITY
DISSIPATES IS LOW DUE TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP AS THERE
IS NO STRONG FOCUS POINT FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG. LEFT VCTS
IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS SETUP IN PLACE. KMHK MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING THAT TO BE THE CASE, SO
LEFT THEM IN THE CLEAR. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN STORY AND QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS
EVENING. NEAR SUNSET, WINDS WILL TEND TO CALM A BIT BUT STILL
SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 052045
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AT 3 PM ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
UPPER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THIS HAS LED TO HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE
AND ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THIS RANGE AS ANY FURTHER SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE
IN DEWPOINT. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO COMBINED WITH
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO ESTABLISH SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 2000+ J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS HAVE LONG SINCE
WEAKENED, THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND ALSO SOME WEAK REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ONE
OUTFLOW OVER MORRIS COUNTY HAS HAD SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
IT BUT FAILED TO SUSTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT...AND ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SEVERE HAIL.
ANY STORMS WOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT BUT THE FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY MORNING IT IS LIKELY THAT OUTFLOW WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS THE UPPER VORT
MAX ALSO APPROACHES TO INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
CONVERGENCE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHER KANSAS.
THIS MAY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE BUT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL
LATE MORNING FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND HOT TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITHIN
THE HEAVIER STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL. PWAT VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
AND WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE STRONGER
CONVECTION. THUS...ANY TRAINING OR SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF A
MINNEAPOLIS TO MANHATTAN TO SENECA LINE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 3 AM AS
THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE LLJ ASSISTS WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT STALL OVER FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. FROM THAT POINT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS LIKELY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
TO SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECASTS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY APPROACH 4 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS AND COULD SEE A RIVER FLOODING THREAT MATERIALIZE AND
WORSEN WITH TIME IF THIS PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ALONG
WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SPIN AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW AND PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES THEREFORE THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. FOR NOW IT APPEARS A
WAVE MAY PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK ALTHOUGH
SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND THE DRIVING FACTOR FOR ANY
STRONG STORMS. THE AREA MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS THE
CLOSED WAVE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN US AND ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN US. BY LATE WEEKEND THE CLOSED
WAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AND POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TEND TO RAIN THEMSELVES
OUT THROUGHOUT PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL
LOCATIONS AFTER THE CURRENT STORM WEST OF KTOP/KFOE VICINITY
DISSIPATES IS LOW DUE TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP AS THERE
IS NO STRONG FOCUS POINT FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG. LEFT VCTS
IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS SETUP IN PLACE. KMHK MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING THAT TO BE THE CASE, SO
LEFT THEM IN THE CLEAR. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN STORY AND QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS
EVENING. NEAR SUNSET, WINDS WILL TEND TO CALM A BIT BUT STILL
SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KGLD 052037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 052037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 052037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 052037
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
237 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KICT 052009
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND DURATION AND THE
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP...SO MAY KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF ACROSS KANSAS...THE COMBO OF DIURNAL
HEATING/STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE DARK...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LENDING TO EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH A BIT QUICKER INTO TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH RAPID TRANSITION TO A DRY
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND/OR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME NORTHWARD MIGRATION
ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO RENEW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT AND RETURNING MOISTURE
ALSO ENCOUNTER A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE IN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THERE IS GENERAL SUPPORT FOR A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR MOST AREAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW TSRA THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER SE KS HAVE DISSIPATED. S
WINDS SUSTAINED 17-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS UNTIL ~06/02Z WHEN THEY WOULD DIMINISH TO 13-17KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT KCNU WHERE A SUSTAINED ~13KTS IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST OF THE AFTN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MON: A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO KRSL
15Z-18Z & KSLN & KHUT ~21Z. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THESE AREAS
NUMEROUS SHRA/+TSRA WILL SPREAD SE ACRS THESE TERMINALS & SHOULD
APPROACH KICT LATE MON AFTN. STAY TUNED.

ES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  89  65  76 /  10  70  90  40
HUTCHINSON      73  88  64  77 /  10  80  90  30
NEWTON          73  88  64  75 /  10  80  90  30
ELDORADO        73  89  65  75 /  10  70  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  66  76 /  10  50  90  60
RUSSELL         72  83  62  79 /  30  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      72  84  62  78 /  30  80  60  10
SALINA          74  87  63  79 /  20  80  80  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  63  77 /  10  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  90  69  77 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         72  89  67  75 /  10  40  90  70
IOLA            72  89  67  74 /  10  40  90  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  90  68  76 /  10  30  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 052009
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND DURATION AND THE
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP...SO MAY KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF ACROSS KANSAS...THE COMBO OF DIURNAL
HEATING/STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE DARK...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LENDING TO EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH A BIT QUICKER INTO TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH RAPID TRANSITION TO A DRY
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND/OR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME NORTHWARD MIGRATION
ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO RENEW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT AND RETURNING MOISTURE
ALSO ENCOUNTER A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE IN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THERE IS GENERAL SUPPORT FOR A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR MOST AREAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW TSRA THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER SE KS HAVE DISSIPATED. S
WINDS SUSTAINED 17-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS UNTIL ~06/02Z WHEN THEY WOULD DIMINISH TO 13-17KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT KCNU WHERE A SUSTAINED ~13KTS IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST OF THE AFTN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MON: A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO KRSL
15Z-18Z & KSLN & KHUT ~21Z. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THESE AREAS
NUMEROUS SHRA/+TSRA WILL SPREAD SE ACRS THESE TERMINALS & SHOULD
APPROACH KICT LATE MON AFTN. STAY TUNED.

ES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  89  65  76 /  10  70  90  40
HUTCHINSON      73  88  64  77 /  10  80  90  30
NEWTON          73  88  64  75 /  10  80  90  30
ELDORADO        73  89  65  75 /  10  70  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  66  76 /  10  50  90  60
RUSSELL         72  83  62  79 /  30  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      72  84  62  78 /  30  80  60  10
SALINA          74  87  63  79 /  20  80  80  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  63  77 /  10  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  90  69  77 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         72  89  67  75 /  10  40  90  70
IOLA            72  89  67  74 /  10  40  90  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  90  68  76 /  10  30  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 052005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  62  78 /  10  80  60  10
GCK  70  84  61  80 /  30  60  20  10
EHA  69  83  61  79 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  72  87  64  78 /  20  40  20  10
HYS  72  83  60  79 /  30  70  30  10
P28  74  92  64  78 /  10  80  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE



000
FXUS63 KDDC 052005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  62  78 /  10  80  60  10
GCK  70  84  61  80 /  30  60  20  10
EHA  69  83  61  79 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  72  87  64  78 /  20  40  20  10
HYS  72  83  60  79 /  30  70  30  10
P28  74  92  64  78 /  10  80  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 052005
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 80S WEST TO AROUND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE OVER. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND LASTLY AT MEDICINE LODGE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 60 TO 64 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY, COOLER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO KANSAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF A PRATT TO COLDWATER LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
ONLY AROUND 78 TO 80 DEGREES WITH EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME STORMS MAY AGAIN REDEVELOP IN THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA
AND NEAR PRATT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE, AND ALSO WEST OF GARDEN CITY.
HIGHS WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AROUND 80 AT DODGE CITY TO
THE MID 80S NEAR ELKHART.

FOR THE PERIOD OF THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE MID 90S BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. FOR
THURSDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  87  62  78 /  10  80  60  10
GCK  70  84  61  80 /  30  60  20  10
EHA  69  83  61  79 /  20  40  20  10
LBL  72  87  64  78 /  20  40  20  10
HYS  72  83  60  79 /  30  70  30  10
P28  74  92  64  78 /  10  80  90  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051959
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 051959
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051959
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 051959
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 051959
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KGLD 051959
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KTOP 051756
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION

WHILE EARLY CONVECTION WAS ELEVATED WITH ACCESS TO ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BY LATE MORNING IT APPEARS THAT STORMS HAVE MADE AN
EFFORT TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...WITH APPROXIMATELY 2000-3000 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND 25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN FAIRLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WITH MAINLY MULTI-CELL
STRUCTURES AND AN ATTENDANT HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT. HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF 40-50 MPH WINDS NEAR EMPORIA AND TOPEKA WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS VERY SMALL HAIL. EXPECT OUTFLOW FROM
THE INITIAL STORMS TO WORK WITH A WEAK AREA OF FORCING TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB COULD END UP SEEING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WHILE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE FARTHER WEST AS
WELL AND ANY WEAK FORCING OR BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY BELIEVE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED UNDER THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TEND TO RAIN THEMSELVES
OUT THROUGHOUT PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL
LOCATIONS AFTER THE CURRENT STORM WEST OF KTOP/KFOE VICINITY
DISSIPATES IS LOW DUE TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP AS THERE
IS NO STRONG FOCUS POINT FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG. LEFT VCTS
IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS SETUP IN PLACE. KMHK MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING THAT TO BE THE CASE, SO
LEFT THEM IN THE CLEAR. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN STORY AND QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS
EVENING. NEAR SUNSET, WINDS WILL TEND TO CALM A BIT BUT STILL
SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...DRAKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 051756
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

...UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION

WHILE EARLY CONVECTION WAS ELEVATED WITH ACCESS TO ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BY LATE MORNING IT APPEARS THAT STORMS HAVE MADE AN
EFFORT TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...WITH APPROXIMATELY 2000-3000 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND 25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN FAIRLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WITH MAINLY MULTI-CELL
STRUCTURES AND AN ATTENDANT HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT. HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF 40-50 MPH WINDS NEAR EMPORIA AND TOPEKA WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS VERY SMALL HAIL. EXPECT OUTFLOW FROM
THE INITIAL STORMS TO WORK WITH A WEAK AREA OF FORCING TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB COULD END UP SEEING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WHILE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE FARTHER WEST AS
WELL AND ANY WEAK FORCING OR BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY BELIEVE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED UNDER THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND TEND TO RAIN THEMSELVES
OUT THROUGHOUT PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL
LOCATIONS AFTER THE CURRENT STORM WEST OF KTOP/KFOE VICINITY
DISSIPATES IS LOW DUE TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP AS THERE
IS NO STRONG FOCUS POINT FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG. LEFT VCTS
IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THIS SETUP IN PLACE. KMHK MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT, BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING THAT TO BE THE CASE, SO
LEFT THEM IN THE CLEAR. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN STORY AND QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE SOUTH UNTIL THIS
EVENING. NEAR SUNSET, WINDS WILL TEND TO CALM A BIT BUT STILL
SUSTAINED FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...DRAKE



000
FXUS63 KICT 051751
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW TSRA THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER SE KS HAVE DISSIPATED. S
WINDS SUSTAINED 17-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS UNTIL ~06/02Z WHEN THEY WOULD DIMINISH TO 13-17KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT KCNU WHERE A SUSTAINED ~13KTS IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST OF THE AFTN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MON: A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO KRSL
15Z-18Z & KSLN & KHUT ~21Z. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THESE AREAS
NUMEROUS SHRA/+TSRA WILL SPREAD SE ACRS THESE TERMINALS & SHOULD
APPROACH KICT LATE MON AFTN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  20  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  20  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  20  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  20  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  20  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  30  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  30  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  30  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 051751
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW TSRA THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER SE KS HAVE DISSIPATED. S
WINDS SUSTAINED 17-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS UNTIL ~06/02Z WHEN THEY WOULD DIMINISH TO 13-17KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT KCNU WHERE A SUSTAINED ~13KTS IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST OF THE AFTN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MON: A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO KRSL
15Z-18Z & KSLN & KHUT ~21Z. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THESE AREAS
NUMEROUS SHRA/+TSRA WILL SPREAD SE ACRS THESE TERMINALS & SHOULD
APPROACH KICT LATE MON AFTN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  20  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  20  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  20  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  20  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  20  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  30  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  30  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  30  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 051751
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW TSRA THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER SE KS HAVE DISSIPATED. S
WINDS SUSTAINED 17-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS UNTIL ~06/02Z WHEN THEY WOULD DIMINISH TO 13-17KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT KCNU WHERE A SUSTAINED ~13KTS IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST OF THE AFTN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MON: A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO KRSL
15Z-18Z & KSLN & KHUT ~21Z. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THESE AREAS
NUMEROUS SHRA/+TSRA WILL SPREAD SE ACRS THESE TERMINALS & SHOULD
APPROACH KICT LATE MON AFTN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  20  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  20  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  20  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  20  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  20  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  30  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  30  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  30  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 051751
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW TSRA THAT HAD BEEN OCCURRING OVER SE KS HAVE DISSIPATED. S
WINDS SUSTAINED 17-22KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS UNTIL ~06/02Z WHEN THEY WOULD DIMINISH TO 13-17KTS. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT KCNU WHERE A SUSTAINED ~13KTS IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST OF THE AFTN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MON: A SE-MOVG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO KRSL
15Z-18Z & KSLN & KHUT ~21Z. AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THESE AREAS
NUMEROUS SHRA/+TSRA WILL SPREAD SE ACRS THESE TERMINALS & SHOULD
APPROACH KICT LATE MON AFTN. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  20  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  20  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  20  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  20  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  20  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  30  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  30  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  30  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KDDC 051750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  87  61 /  20  10  80  60
GCK  98  70  84  60 /  10  30  80  40
EHA  98  69  83  60 /  10  20  80  40
LBL  97  72  87  63 /  10  10  80  60
HYS 100  72  83  61 /  20  30  80  30
P28  98  74  92  66 /  10  10  90  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 051750
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR GARDEN CITY BY MID
MORNING, THEN NEAR DODGE CITY AROUND NOON, AND FINALLY AT MEDICINE
LODGE AROUND 7 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12 TO
18 MPH WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AND RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 WITH THE WARMEST IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

FOR MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST.
BY EVENING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO 80 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. INITIAL
LOAD OF WPC QPF GIVES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/4 INCH TO NEARLY 2
INCHES NEAR MEDICINE LODGE. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES
NOT LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY WITH WEAK LAYER SHEAR, HOWEVER SOME STORMS,
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 3 PM, COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS, BETWEEN
DODGE CITY AND MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  87  61 /  20  10  80  60
GCK  98  70  84  60 /  10  30  80  40
EHA  98  69  83  60 /  10  20  80  40
LBL  97  72  87  63 /  10  10  80  60
HYS 100  72  83  61 /  20  30  80  30
P28  98  74  92  66 /  10  10  90  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE



000
FXUS63 KGLD 051748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WEATHER WILL BE
UNEVENTFUL AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...THEN DECLINE
SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NORTHWEST
OF KGLD. HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE OVER
KMCK BUT WILL PLACE VCTS MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM COVERAGE/DURATION. WINDS WILL
LIGHTEN FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MOVE IN. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THEN BECOME VFR BY 18Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL



000
FXUS63 KTOP 051730
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WHILE EARLY CONVECTION WAS ELEVATED WITH ACCESS TO ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BY LATE MORNING IT APPEARS THAT STORMS HAVE MADE AN
EFFORT TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...WITH APPROXIMATELY 2000-3000 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND 25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN FAIRLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WITH MAINLY MULTI-CELL
STRUCTURES AND AN ATTENDANT HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT. HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF 40-50 MPH WINDS NEAR EMPORIA AND TOPEKA WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS VERY SMALL HAIL. EXPECT OUTFLOW FROM
THE INITIAL STORMS TO WORK WITH A WEAK AREA OF FORCING TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB COULD END UP SEEING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WHILE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE FARTHER WEST AS
WELL AND ANY WEAK FORCING OR BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY BELIEVE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED UNDER THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TERMINALS. MVFR VSBYS AT TOP EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS BY 17Z WITH
GUSTS TO 23 KTS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH NEAR
10 KTS AFTER 00Z MON. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53



000
FXUS63 KTOP 051730
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WHILE EARLY CONVECTION WAS ELEVATED WITH ACCESS TO ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BY LATE MORNING IT APPEARS THAT STORMS HAVE MADE AN
EFFORT TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...WITH APPROXIMATELY 2000-3000 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE AND 25 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN FAIRLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WITH MAINLY MULTI-CELL
STRUCTURES AND AN ATTENDANT HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT. HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF 40-50 MPH WINDS NEAR EMPORIA AND TOPEKA WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS AS WELL AS VERY SMALL HAIL. EXPECT OUTFLOW FROM
THE INITIAL STORMS TO WORK WITH A WEAK AREA OF FORCING TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB COULD END UP SEEING AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WHILE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE FARTHER WEST AS
WELL AND ANY WEAK FORCING OR BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY BELIEVE ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED UNDER THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT CORES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TERMINALS. MVFR VSBYS AT TOP EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS BY 17Z WITH
GUSTS TO 23 KTS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH NEAR
10 KTS AFTER 00Z MON. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KDDC 051709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  20  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  98  74  89  66 /  10  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 051709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  20  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  98  74  89  66 /  10  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE



000
FXUS63 KDDC 051709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  20  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  98  74  89  66 /  10  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 051709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  20  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  98  74  89  66 /  10  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 051709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  20  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  98  74  89  66 /  10  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 051709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AT 20-30KT AS A
LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KT WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 08Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-22KT
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE TOWARD KGCK BY 15-17Z,
THEN KDDC BY 18-20Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  20  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  98  74  89  66 /  10  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...KRUSE




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051149
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEFINITELY PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
UP UNTIL THAT TIME...BOTH SITES WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 32 KNOT RANGE WITH KGLD HAVING THE HIGHER
SPEEDS AND GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. THIS IS IN ADVANCE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH.

FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT BOTH SITES TO START WITH A VCTS EARLY IN
THE EVENING THEN GO TO A PREVAIL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. DURING
THIS TIME STILL WENT WITH A VFR FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A STRONG
ENOUGH STORM COMES ACROSS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS ENDS EXPECT THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AND ALSO SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THE TIMING ON ALL
THIS MAY SLOW DOWN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051149
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEFINITELY PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
UP UNTIL THAT TIME...BOTH SITES WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 32 KNOT RANGE WITH KGLD HAVING THE HIGHER
SPEEDS AND GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. THIS IS IN ADVANCE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH.

FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT BOTH SITES TO START WITH A VCTS EARLY IN
THE EVENING THEN GO TO A PREVAIL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. DURING
THIS TIME STILL WENT WITH A VFR FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A STRONG
ENOUGH STORM COMES ACROSS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS ENDS EXPECT THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AND ALSO SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THE TIMING ON ALL
THIS MAY SLOW DOWN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 051149
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEFINITELY PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
UP UNTIL THAT TIME...BOTH SITES WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 32 KNOT RANGE WITH KGLD HAVING THE HIGHER
SPEEDS AND GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. THIS IS IN ADVANCE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH.

FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT BOTH SITES TO START WITH A VCTS EARLY IN
THE EVENING THEN GO TO A PREVAIL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. DURING
THIS TIME STILL WENT WITH A VFR FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A STRONG
ENOUGH STORM COMES ACROSS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS ENDS EXPECT THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AND ALSO SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THE TIMING ON ALL
THIS MAY SLOW DOWN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051149
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEFINITELY PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
UP UNTIL THAT TIME...BOTH SITES WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 32 KNOT RANGE WITH KGLD HAVING THE HIGHER
SPEEDS AND GUSTS. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND
AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. THIS IS IN ADVANCE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH.

FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT BOTH SITES TO START WITH A VCTS EARLY IN
THE EVENING THEN GO TO A PREVAIL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. DURING
THIS TIME STILL WENT WITH A VFR FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF A STRONG
ENOUGH STORM COMES ACROSS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MVFR. AFTER
THE THUNDERSTORMS ENDS EXPECT THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
BECOME GUSTY AND ALSO SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS POSSIBLE THE TIMING ON ALL
THIS MAY SLOW DOWN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KICT 051135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIAPTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
24-HR PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS. BREEZY SSE WINDS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  30  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  30  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  30  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  30  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  30  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  20  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  20  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 051135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIAPTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
24-HR PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS. BREEZY SSE WINDS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  30  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  30  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  30  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  30  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  30  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  20  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  20  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 051135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIAPTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
24-HR PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS. BREEZY SSE WINDS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  30  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  30  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  30  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  30  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  30  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  20  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  20  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 051135
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
635 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIAPTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
24-HR PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS. BREEZY SSE WINDS WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  30  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  30  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  30  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  30  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  30  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  20  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  20  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 051132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TERMINALS. MVFR VSBYS AT TOP EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS BY 17Z WITH
GUSTS TO 23 KTS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH NEAR
10 KTS AFTER 00Z MON. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 051132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TERMINALS. MVFR VSBYS AT TOP EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS BY 17Z WITH
GUSTS TO 23 KTS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH NEAR
10 KTS AFTER 00Z MON. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53



000
FXUS63 KTOP 051132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TERMINALS. MVFR VSBYS AT TOP EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS BY 17Z WITH
GUSTS TO 23 KTS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH NEAR
10 KTS AFTER 00Z MON. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53




000
FXUS63 KTOP 051132
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO PLACE IN TERMINALS. MVFR VSBYS AT TOP EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 14Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS BY 17Z WITH
GUSTS TO 23 KTS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH NEAR
10 KTS AFTER 00Z MON. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53



000
FXUS63 KDDC 051100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NOTHING LESS THAN VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25
KT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING THEN DECREASE TONIGHT 10-20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 051100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NOTHING LESS THAN VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25
KT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING THEN DECREASE TONIGHT 10-20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 051100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NOTHING LESS THAN VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25
KT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING THEN DECREASE TONIGHT 10-20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 051100
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, BUT NOTHING LESS THAN VFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-25
KT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING THEN DECREASE TONIGHT 10-20 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  20  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  20  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  20  30  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KGLD 051018
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 051018
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
418 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POSITION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR
AFFECT ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANGES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH
AMERICA. STRONG SYSTEM SLOWING MOVING ACROSS CANADA HAS FLATTENED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SOME. SOME INDICATION THAT DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO ROUND THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR OUR WESTERN END OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN...NAM AND THE GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN AND THE
UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM. THE NAM WAS
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF A 700 MB SHORTWAVE. THAT LIFT AND
ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE EASTERN END OF THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. SO AT THIS TIME LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

AFTER THAT ENDS...THE DAY REMAINS DRY UNTIL THE VERY END OF IT.
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THAT SAME AREA.
AREA LOOKED FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE DAY PACKAGE PUT IN SO
PULLED THE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST.

MODELS IN MORE OF AGREEMENT IN WHEN THEY BRING THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS MID TO LATE EVENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROCEEDS THIS FRONT AND ACTUALLY MAY SET OF
STORMS MORE THAN THE FRONT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO MOVES SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SO HAVE A HIGH CHANCE TO
LOW LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF IN THE EVENING TRANSITIONING
TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PWS ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES WITH STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE NOT TOO SLOW. SO DO NOT EXPECT
VERY MUCH SEVERE WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

SINCE THE SURFACE TROUGH IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...THE HIGHEST
WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN PUSHED EAST BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO LOW END
WINDY FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS HAVE KEPT CURRENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FROM FALLING VERY MUCH. SO WILL HAVE A
WARM START. MODELS ARE MAKING IT A HOT DAY BUT DIFFERING DEGREES
OF HOT. WILL USE THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE AND RECENT BIASES
AND WILL RAISE MAXES A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STILL STAYS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A
WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT BRUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THEN SAGS IT FURTHER INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA RATHER EARLY
IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING A LITTLE BIT BEHIND
IT. HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF
NEAR THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING EARLY IN THE EVENING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING ON HOW HOT IT GETS TODAY...WILL BE
NEAR 25 DEGREES COOLER. GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CLOSE AND MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. COULD BE A PRETTY COOL NIGHT FOR JULY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT WITH A DRYING AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAST THE CLOUDS DECREASE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA. IT LOOKS DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 700
MB OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. DURING THE NIGHT THE RIDGE
MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION AREA FROM THE DAYTIME
FORECAST AND KEPT THE POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

WILL HAVE ANOTHER COOL DAY DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KTOP 050830
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONCENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZE FROM AREA FIREWORKS WILL CAUSE MVFR VIS CONDS AT TOP/FOE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR VIS/CIG CONDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HRRR AND SHORT RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF MHK EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...OMITT




000
FXUS63 KTOP 050830
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONCENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZE FROM AREA FIREWORKS WILL CAUSE MVFR VIS CONDS AT TOP/FOE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR VIS/CIG CONDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HRRR AND SHORT RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF MHK EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...OMITT



000
FXUS63 KTOP 050830
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AT 08Z
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE AXIS. THE STORMS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO THE EAST AND GENERALLY WERE
NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL JET
HAS BEEN VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING TRACKING IT TO THE SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATER THIS MORNING IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT LACK OF FORCING IS A CONCERN
TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING THERE COULD BE SOME LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ON, SO WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
LOCALS NEAR CENTRAL KANSAS REACHING THE UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A MINNEAPOLIS TO
WASHINGTON LINE AFTER 09Z. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NEXT FRONT MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST ARE BY MONDAY
MORNING...AS AN UPPER WAVE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRING MOISTURE
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BOOST PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE...AIDED BY MID DAY TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH BULK SHEAR ONLY ABOUT 20KTS AM THINKING HAIL MORE
LIKELY THREAT FOLLOWED BY WIND. WOULD ANTICIPATE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I70 SEEING RAIN FOR THE LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THE FRONT PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH LACK OF A STRONG
UPPER PUSH WILL LIKELY NEED TO RELY ON STORM SCALE FEATURES TO
DRIVE THE PROCESS. THE ECMWF CLEARS THE CWA BY 0Z WED...BUT LIFTS
ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BRINGS A
WAVE ACROSS THE FRONT FOR THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM
DEVELOPS A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER MOVING WAVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...HAVE MOST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT WITH ENOUGH CONCENSUS TO AT LEAST
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS WILL ALSO BE DRIVEN BY RAIN CHANCES...WITH CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUING TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL.

FRI/SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO THESE LATTER
PERIODS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WESTERN RIDGE IS IMPACTED BY
NEXT TROF MOVING ACROSS ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. CURRENT FORECAST
IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HAZE FROM AREA FIREWORKS WILL CAUSE MVFR VIS CONDS AT TOP/FOE
TONIGHT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR VIS/CIG CONDS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HRRR AND SHORT RANGE MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WEST OF MHK EARLY SUNDAY SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...OMITT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  30  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  30  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  10  40  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  30  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  30  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  10  40  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN KANSAS AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PRECEDES THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT STARTS TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT GIVEN THE SLOW
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE NAM AND GFS
WILL FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE
TRENDING COOLER IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON THIS POSSIBLE CLEARING AND THE LOCATION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FAVOR LOWS AT
LEAST AS COOL AT THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA AND SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO. FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. DESPITE THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THE TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BASED ON
850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FURTHER WEST BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND AFTER WEDNESDAY
THEY BEGINS TO MOVE THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  30  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  30  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  10  40  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KICT 050730
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER SOME EARLY THIS
MORNING...FOCUSING MODERATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS BENEATH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 315K SURFACE.
OTHER VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST (20-30%)
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING (WITH EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT WEAKEN. LEE
TROUGHING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

A POSITIVELY-TILTED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA
TO BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNFICANT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE INITIAL MODERATELY-WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...THE FRONT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.00-
2.50 INCHES. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPANDING AREA-WIDE...AND MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOADING AND WEAKER SHEAR. OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
PROBABLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE
TRAINING OCCURS. THIS IS ALREADY IN THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING
FORECAST.

NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 850 MOISTURE
TRANPSORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VORTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
WEDNESDAY INTO PERHAPS THURSDAY...BEFORE MODIFYING TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.  THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE EARLY SUN MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES.  THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KS. BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ONLY MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED...WITH HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ALL OVER THE
PLACE ON WHETHER ANYTHING WILL OCCUR.

WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KRSL BETWEEN 09-14Z/SUN...BUT CONFIDENCE
ISNT THAT HIGH.  COULD EVEN SEE A STRAY STORM TRY TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS WELL...BUT CHANCES SEEM TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE KICT/KHUT/KSLN TAFS.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    95  74  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
HUTCHINSON      96  73  87  65 /  30  10  70  60
NEWTON          95  72  87  65 /  20  10  70  70
ELDORADO        93  73  88  66 /  20  10  60  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   94  74  91  67 /  20  10  50  80
RUSSELL         98  72  82  63 /  30  30  70  40
GREAT BEND      97  72  83  63 /  30  20  70  50
SALINA          97  73  85  64 /  30  10  70  50
MCPHERSON       95  72  86  64 /  30  10  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     91  73  90  70 /  20  10  30  90
CHANUTE         91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
IOLA            91  72  88  68 /  20  10  40  80
PARSONS-KPPF    91  73  89  69 /  20  10  30  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 050721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  AT THE
SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...JUST WEST OF
THE TR-STATE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST.  AM EXPECTING THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA A WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH.  THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS.  HOWEVER AM THINKING THE LARGE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 50 MB OR MORE AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF 30-40J/KG
WILL KEEP AN SEVERE STORMS FAIRLY SPOTTY.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

TONIGHT THE STORMS OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO
KANSAS.  BY THE LATE EVENING LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DECLINE AS IT MOVES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.  IN ADDITION THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.  WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
LESS SUITABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE...EXPECT STORM
COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

BASED ON THE NEAR TERM MODELS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK.  A COUPLE OF THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WOULD DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  HOWEVER
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS SINCE A SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD GO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WARMER AS THE DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A WARMER AIR MASS WITH IT.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP
OR MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 050721
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PLAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.  AT THE
SURFACE A DRY LINE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...JUST WEST OF
THE TR-STATE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT NOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST.  AM EXPECTING THESE
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA A WEAKER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH.  THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS.  HOWEVER AM THINKING THE LARGE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 50 MB OR MORE AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF 30-40J/KG
WILL KEEP AN SEVERE STORMS FAIRLY SPOTTY.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

TONIGHT THE STORMS OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO
KANSAS.  BY THE LATE EVENING LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DECLINE AS IT MOVES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.  IN ADDITION THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.  WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
LESS SUITABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE...EXPECT STORM
COVERAGE TO DISSIPATE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST.

BASED ON THE NEAR TERM MODELS THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE A COMPACT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRACK.  A COUPLE OF THE MODELS WERE SUGGESTING THIS
COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WOULD DIVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA.  HOWEVER
HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING THIS SINCE A SOUTHWARD TRACK WOULD GO
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY AND WARMER AS THE DRY
LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A WARMER AIR MASS WITH IT.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING.  WITH A DRY ENVIRONMENT
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP
OR MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT THAT COULD BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING GREATER THAN ONE
INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. BULK SHEAR IN
THE 0-6 KM LAYER IS FAIRLY WEAK AROUND 20 KTS DUE TO LACK OF STRONG
JET IN THE VICINITY...AND CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO WARM
700 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12C.  THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.  ECMWF
HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...HOWEVER GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX ALL DEPICT MORE OF A TRANSIENT
PATTERN WITH STRONGER JETSTREAM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  NOTICED THAT ECMWF HAD SOME
TROUBLE IN SOME SPOTS UPON INITIALIZATION...SO THIS MODEL SEEMS TO
BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.  THEREFORE...LEFT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO A MAJORITY OF
THE CONSENSUS IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WELL OUTSIDE OF BOTH
TERMINALS VICINITY...AND GUIDANCE/RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS
REMAINING SOUTH. SOME GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR KMCK BY 12Z.
CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND HRRR SHOWS THIS REMAINING
NORTHEAST. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES OVER BOTH TERMINALS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT AT BOTH TERMINALS...THOUGH THERE ARE REASONS
TO QUESTION COVERAGE. I INTRODUCED VCTS AS A START...AND WE CAN
FINE TUNE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THEN
WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTED ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DOES MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  30  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  30  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  10  40  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 050720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTED ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DOES MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  30  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  30  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  10  40  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 050720
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
220 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...RAP AND NAM BOTH MOVE A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH THE RAP AND
HRRR SUGGESTING SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. BASED ON WHAT WAS OCCURRING
AT 07Z SUNDAY AM LEANING TOWARDS THIS TREND AND WILL THEREFORE
KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183.

ANY CONVECTION THAT WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A MIXING
DEPTH UP TO AT LEAST THE 800MB LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. USING THIS AS
A GUIDE FOR HIGHS TODAY IT APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

BY LATE DAY THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL BE EXTEND FROM EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WEAK 0-1KM FORCING PRESENT
AND 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C SO WOULD
EXPECTED ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z MONDAY ANY LATE DAY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER OR NORTH OF SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
STORMS THAT DOES MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MAY PRODUCE PENNY HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPROVE AFTER TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN KANSAS BY MONDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AND AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT GARDEN CITY TO
NEAR 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
20 MPH TO THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WIND SHEAR WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION, SO SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ON TUESDAY, AND ONLY AROUND 80
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS WILL BE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF SOME
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER FLOW.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE
COOLEST WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS FROM 58 TO 62
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONGOING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. RAP AND HRRR EVEN SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN WHAT WAS OCCURRING ON RADAR
AT 05Z WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND BUT EVEN IN DOING THIS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT GCK, DDC OR HYS IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. GIVEN
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL HOWEVER INSERT A PERIOD OF VCTS IN
THE GCK TAFS THROUGH 08Z. AT DDC AND HYS WILL INSERT VCTS FROM 08Z
TO 11Z. 00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 5000FT AGL SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AS MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  85  61 /  10  30  70  60
GCK  98  71  82  60 /  10  30  60  40
EHA  98  70  81  60 /  10  30  50  40
LBL  97  73  83  63 /  10  20  70  60
HYS  99  73  82  61 /  10  40  60  30
P28  97  74  89  66 /  20  10  70  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...BURGERT




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