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000
FXUS63 KICT 020117
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE REFINED/TRIMMED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE AND PERHAPS BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL ELEVATED
FLOW MAY FORCE CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN 03-06Z. HOWEVER
THE WICHITA AREA AND AREAS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO
HAVE VERY REMOTE CHANCES THE REST OF THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
GIVE THE WICHITA AREA A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH
NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF I-135 THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
THE KSLN AND KCNU TERMINALS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THAT WILL AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  50  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 020117
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE REFINED/TRIMMED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE AND PERHAPS BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL ELEVATED
FLOW MAY FORCE CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN 03-06Z. HOWEVER
THE WICHITA AREA AND AREAS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO
HAVE VERY REMOTE CHANCES THE REST OF THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
GIVE THE WICHITA AREA A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH
NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF I-135 THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
THE KSLN AND KCNU TERMINALS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THAT WILL AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  50  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 020117
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE REFINED/TRIMMED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE AND PERHAPS BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL ELEVATED
FLOW MAY FORCE CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN 03-06Z. HOWEVER
THE WICHITA AREA AND AREAS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO
HAVE VERY REMOTE CHANCES THE REST OF THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
GIVE THE WICHITA AREA A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH
NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF I-135 THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
THE KSLN AND KCNU TERMINALS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THAT WILL AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  50  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 020117
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

HAVE REFINED/TRIMMED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SLIGHT INCREASE AND PERHAPS BACKING TO THE LOW LEVEL ELEVATED
FLOW MAY FORCE CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN 03-06Z. HOWEVER
THE WICHITA AREA AND AREAS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METRO
HAVE VERY REMOTE CHANCES THE REST OF THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER
TROF BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL
GIVE THE WICHITA AREA A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MUCH
NEEDED PRECIPITATION.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF I-135 THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
THE KSLN AND KCNU TERMINALS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THAT WILL AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  50  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KTOP 020028 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
728 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri.  Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued.  Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county.  Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day.  Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.

Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.

Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites for the
next 2-3 hours before temporarily ending with the potential for
another area of convection then aft 08z which could produce mvfr
cigs and brief ifr vsbys in heavy rain. Winds will shift to the northwest
and increase with mvfr stratus aft 19z as the cold front moves
through the taf sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 020028 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
728 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri.  Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued.  Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county.  Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day.  Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.

Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.

Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites for the
next 2-3 hours before temporarily ending with the potential for
another area of convection then aft 08z which could produce mvfr
cigs and brief ifr vsbys in heavy rain. Winds will shift to the northwest
and increase with mvfr stratus aft 19z as the cold front moves
through the taf sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 020028 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
728 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri.  Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued.  Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county.  Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day.  Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.

Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.

Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites for the
next 2-3 hours before temporarily ending with the potential for
another area of convection then aft 08z which could produce mvfr
cigs and brief ifr vsbys in heavy rain. Winds will shift to the northwest
and increase with mvfr stratus aft 19z as the cold front moves
through the taf sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 020028 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
728 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri.  Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued.  Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county.  Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day.  Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.

Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.

Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 720 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites for the
next 2-3 hours before temporarily ending with the potential for
another area of convection then aft 08z which could produce mvfr
cigs and brief ifr vsbys in heavy rain. Winds will shift to the northwest
and increase with mvfr stratus aft 19z as the cold front moves
through the taf sites.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 012338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS COMING DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL BY MID EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS




000
FXUS63 KGLD 012338
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO BOTH SITES THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS COMING DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL BY MID EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MID DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS



000
FXUS63 KICT 012334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF I-135 THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
THE KSLN AND KCNU TERMINALS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THAT WILL AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 012334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF I-135 THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
THE KSLN AND KCNU TERMINALS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THAT WILL AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 012334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF I-135 THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
THE KSLN AND KCNU TERMINALS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THAT WILL AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 012334
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF I-135 THIS EVENING...WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO AFFECT
THE KSLN AND KCNU TERMINALS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED THAT WILL AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDDC 012301
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WHILE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH. A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COOLER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS.

A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE IN AS MANY DAYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
HELP DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO MVFR AND THEN EVEN
IFR/LIFR AS SHOWERS/ISO TSTORMS/LOW STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE MOVES IN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FROPA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
20-30 KT FORECAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. GENERALLY SPEAKING - NOT A
GOOD TAF PD FOR VFR GA PILOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  44  65 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  42  65 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  43  66 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  44  67 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  40  62 /  70  40   0   0
P28  61  72  48  67 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 012301
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WHILE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH. A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COOLER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS.

A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE IN AS MANY DAYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
HELP DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO MVFR AND THEN EVEN
IFR/LIFR AS SHOWERS/ISO TSTORMS/LOW STRATUS/PATCHY DRIZZLE MOVES IN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FROPA. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
20-30 KT FORECAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. GENERALLY SPEAKING - NOT A
GOOD TAF PD FOR VFR GA PILOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  44  65 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  42  65 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  43  66 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  44  67 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  40  62 /  70  40   0   0
P28  61  72  48  67 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 012029
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Spring like conditions driving an early October forecast today as
severe storms have developed over southeastern Kansas and west
central Missouri.  Earlier clouds and showers over eastern Kansas
gave way to clearing early and then afternoon cumulus clouds as
daytime heating ensued.  Diffuse boundary / surface trof still
appears to extend from near Newton Kansas northeast through Council
Grove and into Wabaunsee county.  Morning and afternoon soundings
continue to show an unstable atmosphere, but low level winds in the
surface trof have weakened through the day.  Dewpoints near 70
continue to move northward into the counties south of the
interstate.

Conditional severe threat remains for east central Kansas. Lack of a
strong forcing mechanism over our area makes forecast more
difficult. However storms to the south have mid level energy moving
into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, and hodographs going straight in the
mid levels favor splits, with left movers approaching our south CWA
edge at this time. Primary threat from these storms will be large
hail and winds, although with outflow boundaries moving out of the
southern and eastern storms, will need to watch for tornado threat
as well. Worth mentioning these storms are producing considerable
lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  That said, the better
conditions come together primarily for the counties along and SE of
the turnpike where the watch is now in place. As the low level jet
increases later this evening, may see additional strengthening if
storms develop in south central Kansas and move into our southeast
as the latest HRRR would suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Main upper trough axis ejects eastward into the central plains on
Thursday. The sfc low is progged to deepen through the day as it
phases with the upper wave. Showers and thunderstorms from the
overnight period will have made its way into north central KS by
Thurs. morning. A decent 30 to 40 kt h85 jet may also support
additional convection forming over east central KS. Through the day
on Thursday, the main frontal boundary continues to trend more
progressive in pushing east of the CWA by 00Z Friday. Dependent on
mesoscale factors such as if and when morning convection in the east
can clear out and where the boundary sets up by peak heating may
form a few strong to severe storms in the late afternoon. Far
eastern KS should see the best chances for severe weather with
mainly high wind and large hail the primary hazards. Localized
flooding may also pose a hazard for the entire area with an average
of 0.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall in the past 24 hours. Convection
clears east Thursday evening as a stronger upper wave plunges
southeast into the Great Lakes region. Strengthening mid and low
level wind field pickup sfc speeds from the northwest between 20 and
25 mph sustained on Friday. Consensus operational guidance is
hinting on a weak wave traversing through the mean flow across
northeast Kansas on Friday. While model soundings do not show ample
low level moisture, included a low end chance for showers. The main
story through the weekend will be strong subsidence and cold air
advection as highs fall Friday from the 70s to the 60s for Saturday.
May need frost headlines for Saturday AM as trends with h85 temps
continue to fall near 0C. Have lowered low temps down into the
middle and lower 30s area wide.

Extended period remains quiet and dry as northwest flow and blocking
ridge holds over the western CONUS. Airmass modulates back with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another digging trough over
the Great Lakes region may push weak embedded waves southward into
the region on Wednesday where slight chances for precip were
mentioned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Kept similar as previous forecast with best chances for
thunderstorms actually occurring at a TAF site in the early
morning hours. In the meantime there should be storms near taf
sites late afternoon, and will then be followed by more widespread
showers and storms moving across eastern Kansas in the morning,
when prevailing mvfr rain/cigs more likely to move in.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KGLD 011951
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011951
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
151 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH FRONT END OF H3 JET ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING I DECIDED TO
KEEP 20 POPS ACROSS NW PART OF CWA THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY OR ADVISORY WINDS (45 MPH)
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT. NAM IN PARTICULAR SHOWS
6HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF 10MB WHICH IS CONCERNING AND COULD
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WARNING CRITERIA WINDS. IF THERE IS
VIRGA OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MAY ALSO HELP MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON HEADLIGHTS...BUT THIS NEEDS
TO BE MONITORED.

GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL JET AND
TROUGH AXIS MOVE EAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. PROFILES WOULD LIMIT
MIXING TO BELOW WHERE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE FRIDAY DESPITE
SUNNY CONDITIONS...SO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SEEM UNLIKELY DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOULD STILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

VERY COOL AIR MASS SETTLES INTO REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF
IT WASNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AIR
MASS WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED A HARD FREEZE (LOOKS LIKE WELL LUCK OUT).
CLEAR SKIES...LOW TD...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
MODERATING AS A RIDGE OVER THE SW US BEGINS TO BUILD EAST. MOST OF
THE CWA SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING...THOUGH PATCHY FROST WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 33-35F RANGE ARE EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...

GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN US
WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SHIFTING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF
CWA. ECMWF IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND CLOSE
UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS OUR CWA. THERE
ISNT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY ON THIS WEAK FEATURE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLES SO I KEPT SUN/SUN NIGHT DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
LOWER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND SEEMED APPROPRIATE...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 011939
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
139 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KGLD 011939
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
139 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG TROUGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SFC...FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH FRONT DRAPED FROM KLBL TO
KMCI.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WHILE SEEING CURRENT DRY AIR IN THE AREA
DOES CAUSE SOME CONCERN ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BULK OF NEAR TERM
MODELS ALL INDICATE A TAP OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING NEAR SFC FRONT
AND INTERACTING WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING. MIXING
RATIOS IN THIS PLUME ARE HIGH AND WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXPECT A DECENT RESPONSE TO PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS.
SOMEWHAT SURPRISED BY CONSISTENCY OF QPF OUTPUT FROM AVAILABLE
DATA SOURCES AND AM COMFORTABLE INCREASING GENERAL AMOUNTS TO 0.25
TO 0.75 AT MOST LOCATIONS. CHOSE NOT TO GO ON THE HIGH END OF
PRECIPITATION THOUGH...DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS OVER
MOISTURE QUALITY. FORCING WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNRISE AS DEEP
CAA TAKES OVER. SURPRISINGLY...SOME LOW TOPPED INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SO A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS APPEAR
WARRANTED.

OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 12Z NAM AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE THE RAP INDICATE STRONG 3 HR PRESSURE RISES IN EXCESS OF
6MB AS FRONT PASSES. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. PLAYED UP WINDS A
BIT IN THE FORECAST...BUT UNTIL STRONG PRESSURE RISES/GUSTS BECOME
MORE APPARENT IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HIGHLIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WHILE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH. A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COOLER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS.

A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE IN AS MANY DAYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
HELP DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  44  65 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  42  65 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  43  66 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  44  67 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  40  62 /  70  40   0   0
P28  61  72  48  67 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WHILE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH. A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COOLER DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS.

A SECOND FRONTAL PASSAGE IN AS MANY DAYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
HELP DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  44  65 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  42  65 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  43  66 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  44  67 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  40  62 /  70  40   0   0
P28  61  72  48  67 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE



000
FXUS63 KICT 011910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
210 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...RSL IFR CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT AND RISE TO
MVFR BY 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ICT
AND CNU...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING FOR ICT-CNU...AND POSSIBLY HUT...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 011910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
210 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...RSL IFR CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT AND RISE TO
MVFR BY 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ICT
AND CNU...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING FOR ICT-CNU...AND POSSIBLY HUT...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 011910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
210 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...RSL IFR CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT AND RISE TO
MVFR BY 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ICT
AND CNU...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING FOR ICT-CNU...AND POSSIBLY HUT...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 011910
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
210 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG PV ANOMALY OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE EJECTING OUT ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON
THURSDAY. RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH INTO
EASTERN KS WITH 65-70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PROVIDING VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 45-60 KNOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PM
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A TRIPLE
POINT LOW FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY 00Z WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST
FROM THE LOW THRU EAST-CENTRAL KS. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
COOL SIDE...SO NIL CAPPING IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE STRONG
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL LAG BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND
BOUNDARIES SHOULD INCREASE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 40-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. ISOLATED SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORM CHANCES/COVERAGE INCREASING
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. ANY STORMS THIS PM/EVE
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...HELICITY...AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND WARM
FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED. THIS WOULD BE
PRIMARILY FOR ANY STORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...AS STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE ELEVATED LATER IN THE EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS A THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST KS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OCCURRING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ARE MODERATELY HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN NOT MUCH RAIN
OCCURRENCE IN THE PAST 7 DAYS...SO PLANNING TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PARTIAL INSOLATION TO ALLOW FOR
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND MORNING CONVECTION...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WOULD FAVOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FORMING INTO A LINEAR
STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD EXIT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THURSDAY EVE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LARGE...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CENTERED
OVER ONTARIO WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THIS FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE
RETURN THIS FAR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER FLOW BACKS TO WESTERLY
WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING BY MIDWEEK...THERE ARE NO STRONG
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS. SO WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...RSL IFR CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT AND RISE TO
MVFR BY 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ICT
AND CNU...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING FOR ICT-CNU...AND POSSIBLY HUT...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  73  48  67 /  40  50  10   0
HUTCHINSON      62  71  46  67 /  40  40  10  10
NEWTON          63  72  47  66 /  50  50  10  10
ELDORADO        64  74  48  67 /  60  60  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  75  49  68 /  60  50  10   0
RUSSELL         55  67  43  64 /  60  50  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  67  44  65 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          61  69  46  63 /  70  60  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  70  46  64 /  50  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     68  80  51  69 /  80  80  30   0
CHANUTE         67  78  50  66 /  80  80  30  10
IOLA            67  77  50  65 /  70  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  79  50  67 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 011831
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH.  WIND
DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE
NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG
NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY 06Z.  HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED.  I DID NOT CHANGE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT,
STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE
MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER
60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  46  70 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  44  70 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  45  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  46  72 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  42  67 /  70  40  10   0
P28  61  72  50  72 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011831
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH.  WIND
DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE
NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG
NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY 06Z.  HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED.  I DID NOT CHANGE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT,
STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE
MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER
60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  46  70 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  44  70 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  45  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  46  72 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  42  67 /  70  40  10   0
P28  61  72  50  72 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011831
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH.  WIND
DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE
NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG
NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY 06Z.  HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED.  I DID NOT CHANGE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT,
STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE
MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER
60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  46  70 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  44  70 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  45  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  46  72 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  42  67 /  70  40  10   0
P28  61  72  50  72 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011831
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH.  WIND
DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE
NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG
NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY 06Z.  HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED.  I DID NOT CHANGE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT,
STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE
MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE, AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER
60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  46  70 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  44  70 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  45  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  46  72 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  42  67 /  70  40  10   0
P28  61  72  50  72 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011831 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  46  70 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  44  70 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  45  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  46  72 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  42  67 /  70  40  10   0
P28  61  72  50  72 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011831 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  46  70 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  44  70 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  45  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  46  72 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  42  67 /  70  40  10   0
P28  61  72  50  72 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011831 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  46  70 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  44  70 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  45  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  46  72 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  42  67 /  70  40  10   0
P28  61  72  50  72 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011831 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
131 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

IN THE NEAR TERM, A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITHIN THIS FRONT NEAR SYRACUSE THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR WICHITA AND MEDICINE LODGE BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.  A RATHER STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
HELPING TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME SEVERE, SEEM LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BASICALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  THE NAMDMG5, NMM-EAST, AND ARW-EAST MODELS ALL DEPICT A
QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION FORMING IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ABOUT 03-04Z, AND MOVING EAST AS THE LINE DEVELOPS SOUTH. THUS, I
REDUCED THE POPS PRIOR TO 03Z DRASTICALLY, THINKING THIS WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN OVERNIGHT EVENT.  WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE GREATEST
HAZARD, BUT THE MUCAPE VALUES PER THE NAM40 MODEL WILL INCREASE
AFTER 00Z AND REACH AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NORTH OF I-70 TONIGHT BY
06Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY, BUT I THOUGHT THE WIND
HAZARD SHOULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY EMPHASIZED. I DID NOT CHANGE
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT, STICKING WITH UPPER 40S IN THE SYRACUSE AND
SCOTT CITY AREAS, THE MID 50S FROM LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE,
AND AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 60S IN THE PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.

ON THURSDAY, THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THESE CHANCES WILL SLIDE
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ALSO.  I EXITED THE STORM
CHANCES BY 21Z, EVEN THOUGH OUR ICT NEIGHBORS TO THE EAST HANG ON TO
SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN WE DO.
THE COLD AIR  IS COMING, AND ALL OUR WFO NEIGHBORS APPEAR TO AGREE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER AND IN THE GARDEN CITY AND HAYS AREAS.  IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE LATEST, MAX TEMPS IN
THE ASHLAND, COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S THURSDAY.  ALSO, IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY, WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 20G30MPH, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY SHY OF THE SOON TO BE
GONE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  70  46  70 /  30  30   0   0
GCK  51  69  44  70 /  60  20   0   0
EHA  48  69  45  71 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  52  70  46  72 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  52  66  42  67 /  70  40  10   0
P28  61  72  50  72 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011807
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
107 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Ran an update to current forecast mainly for current conditions
and evolving convective potential for this afternoon into evening.
Cooler air and associated cloud cover north of the inverted
surface trof has pushed farther southward, with radar suggesting
it has stalled generally south of Salina extending northeast
toward Hiawatha. Starting to get some clearing behind the
departing shortwave now moving into Iowa.  Dewpoints in southeast
Kansas are 70F and streaming northward in southerly surface flow.
Can see a dry slot moving across northern Oklahoma and would
influence conditions later this afternoon across southeast
possibly into east central Kansas. Think it will be a few hours
before atmosphere resets and surface trof can sharpen up a bit to
increase convergence to aid in lift for storms. Also increasing
850mb wind speeds increase and back to around 25-30kts along and
southeast of the turnpike in the late afternoon into early evening
and would also provide increased low level shear profiles for
thunderstorms. So overall, severe risk for this afternoon and
evening is greater along and south of the interstate, and along
and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Entire area remains under a
slight risk for later into the overnight hours, as main upper trof
shifts out of the Rockies into the Plains and spreads convection
over most of the forecast area by sunrise.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

At current time am not seeing redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms over central KS and thus have decreased POPs for the
morning hours for much of central and eastern KS. Redevelopment
this afternoon still looks like a good bet with east central KS
still the favored area for the most significant storms.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Challenging forecast for today and tonight across eastern KS.  Water
vapor and regional radar loops show area of convection moving east
across northeast and east central KS at 3 AM.  Another shortwave
trough moving into western KS not having much effect with subsidence
behind aforementioned convection preventing any additional
development so far this morning.  Rainfall rates have been around an
inch an hour most places with KTWX dual pol precip estimates doing
pretty good, showing the greatest amounts so far of 1.5" to 2.5" in
a narrow band from Minneapolis to Blue Rapids, northeast into
Southeast Nebraska.

Some clearing has developed across north central KS this morning
with fog developing over the area.  Have added mention of areas of
fog through mid-morning for that area.

Additional rainfall today and tonight a concern with at least a
couple rounds of thunderstorms expected, some of it may be heavy.
Models have not been real consistent in forecasting location of
heaviest rainfall, although the latest runs have come into more
agreement with best rainfall chances this morning and early
afternoon in the far east, then redevelopment favored over east
central KS late this afternoon or evening.

Combination of some heating and lift along possible residual outflow
boundary, expected to be located near east central KS, looks to be
favored area for redevelopment of robust convection after 21Z today.
Besides heavy rainfall, forecast hodographs in this area, especially
from NAM, would appear to be favorable for supercells, with a
tornado or two possible.

Main upper trough then moves eastward onto the High Plains after
midnight.  Low-level warm advection will combine with forcing aloft
to produce another area of thunderstorms overnight.  Instability
should be elevated above shallow cool air and any severe weather
that might develop later tonight would be mainly hail.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Expect convection to be ongoing Thursday morning to start the day.
Surface frontal boundary should extend from northeast corner of
Kansas southeast along the Turnpike to a surface low south of
Wichita Thursday Morning. Longwave trough will move eastward out of
the Rockies and into central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma by late
afternoon. This will progress the front southeast through the day,
however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front where both shear and instability will be favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms. Main hazards will be hail and damaging
winds. The front should move out of the CWA by late afternoon on
Thursday and with the upper trough axis moving through in the
evening have kept a small chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
southeast of Interstate 35. Temperatures Thursday will vary from the
mid to upper 60s behind the front to the mid 70s ahead of the front.

Drier air begins to move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the
front and upper level trough in northwest flow. Energy on the back
side of the upper trough will move through during the day on Friday
as well as and upper level jet maximum around 120 kts. Stronger
winds will mix down from around 850 mb with surface winds increasing
to around 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts through the afternoon
hours. Temperatures around only expected to top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Friday night high pressure will build into central and
eastern Kansas with winds becoming light along with mostly clear
skies temperatures are expected to fall into the mid and upper 30s.
On Sunday an upper level trough will move southeast across the
Central Plains and bring another frontal boundary southeast across
eastern Kansas. No precipitation is expected as there will be little
in the way of moisture. Dry northwest flow will continue into
Tuesday with heights gradually rising Monday through Tuesday
translating into temperatures warming to slightly above seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Kept similar as previous forecast with best chances for
thunderstorms actually occurring at a TAF site in the early
morning hours. In the meantime there should be storms near taf
sites late afternoon, and will then be followed by more widespread
showers and storms moving across eastern Kansas in the morning,
when prevailing mvfr rain/cigs more likely to move in.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67







000
FXUS63 KGLD 011800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011800
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS STORMS MARCH ACROSS THE
AREA. PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM



000
FXUS63 KICT 011749
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE WEAK/MODEST...AND WITH
WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...QUESTIONS ARISE ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG
HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING THE THREAT
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE NOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD
RETREATING WARM FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUD BASES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IS GENERALLY EAST
OF ANTHONY-HUTCHINSON...AND SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON-HILLSBORO.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REDEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY
BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...RSL IFR CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT AND RISE TO
MVFR BY 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ICT
AND CNU...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING FOR ICT-CNU...AND POSSIBLY HUT...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  48 /  30  40  50  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  46 /  30  40  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  47 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  48 /  30  60  60  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  49 /  40  60  50  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  43 /  10  60  50  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  44 /  10  50  40  10
SALINA          83  61  69  46 /  20  70  60  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  46 /  30  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  80  51 /  60  80  80  30
CHANUTE         84  67  78  50 /  60  80  80  30
IOLA            83  67  77  50 /  50  70  80  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  79  50 /  60  80  80  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 011749
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE WEAK/MODEST...AND WITH
WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...QUESTIONS ARISE ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG
HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING THE THREAT
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE NOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD
RETREATING WARM FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUD BASES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IS GENERALLY EAST
OF ANTHONY-HUTCHINSON...AND SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON-HILLSBORO.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REDEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY
BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...RSL IFR CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT AND RISE TO
MVFR BY 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ICT
AND CNU...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING FOR ICT-CNU...AND POSSIBLY HUT...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  48 /  30  40  50  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  46 /  30  40  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  47 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  48 /  30  60  60  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  49 /  40  60  50  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  43 /  10  60  50  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  44 /  10  50  40  10
SALINA          83  61  69  46 /  20  70  60  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  46 /  30  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  80  51 /  60  80  80  30
CHANUTE         84  67  78  50 /  60  80  80  30
IOLA            83  67  77  50 /  50  70  80  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  79  50 /  60  80  80  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  46 /  10  30  30   0
GCK  81  51  69  44 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  45 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  70  46 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  66  42 /  20  70  40  10
P28  89  61  72  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE



000
FXUS63 KDDC 011725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THERE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A
LARGE UPPER SCALE TROUGH WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY BRING SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. RIGHT NOW, THE KHYS TAF SITE APPEARS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION, BUT STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OF EITHER KGCK OR KDDC. CIGS WILL LOWER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MVFR RANGE, AND WINDS WILL GET QUITE BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  46 /  10  30  30   0
GCK  81  51  69  44 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  45 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  70  46 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  66  42 /  20  70  40  10
P28  89  61  72  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011703
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Ran an update to current forecast mainly for current conditions
and evolving convective potential for this afternoon into evening.
Cooler air and associated cloud cover north of the inverted
surface trof has pushed farther southward, with radar suggesting
it has stalled generally south of Salina extending northeast
toward Hiawatha. Starting to get some clearing behind the
departing shortwave now moving into Iowa.  Dewpoints in southeast
Kansas are 70F and streaming northward in southerly surface flow.
Can see a dry slot moving across northern Oklahoma and would
influence conditions later this afternoon across southeast
possibly into east central Kansas. Think it will be a few hours
before atmosphere resets and surface trof can sharpen up a bit to
increase convergence to aid in lift for storms. Also increasing
850mb wind speeds increase and back to around 25-30kts along and
southeast of the turnpike in the late afternoon into early evening
and would also provide increased low level shear profiles for
thunderstorms. So overall, severe risk for this afternoon and
evening is greater along and south of the interstate, and along
and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Entire area remains under a
slight risk for later into the overnight hours, as main upper trof
shifts out of the Rockies into the Plains and spreads convection
over most of the forecast area by sunrise.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

At current time am not seeing redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms over central KS and thus have decreased POPs for the
morning hours for much of central and eastern KS. Redevelopment
this afternoon still looks like a good bet with east central KS
still the favored area for the most significant storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Challenging forecast for today and tonight across eastern KS.  Water
vapor and regional radar loops show area of convection moving east
across northeast and east central KS at 3 AM.  Another shortwave
trough moving into western KS not having much effect with subsidence
behind aforementioned convection preventing any additional
development so far this morning.  Rainfall rates have been around an
inch an hour most places with KTWX dual pol precip estimates doing
pretty good, showing the greatest amounts so far of 1.5" to 2.5" in
a narrow band from Minneapolis to Blue Rapids, northeast into
Southeast Nebraska.

Some clearing has developed across north central KS this morning
with fog developing over the area.  Have added mention of areas of
fog through mid-morning for that area.

Additional rainfall today and tonight a concern with at least a
couple rounds of thunderstorms expected, some of it may be heavy.
Models have not been real consistent in forecasting location of
heaviest rainfall, although the latest runs have come into more
agreement with best rainfall chances this morning and early
afternoon in the far east, then redevelopment favored over east
central KS late this afternoon or evening.

Combination of some heating and lift along possible residual outflow
boundary, expected to be located near east central KS, looks to be
favored area for redevelopment of robust convection after 21Z today.
Besides heavy rainfall, forecast hodographs in this area, especially
from NAM, would appear to be favorable for supercells, with a
tornado or two possible.

Main upper trough then moves eastward onto the High Plains after
midnight.  Low-level warm advection will combine with forcing aloft
to produce another area of thunderstorms overnight.  Instability
should be elevated above shallow cool air and any severe weather
that might develop later tonight would be mainly hail.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Expect convection to be ongoing Thursday morning to start the day.
Surface frontal boundary should extend from northeast corner of
Kansas southeast along the Turnpike to a surface low south of
Wichita Thursday Morning. Longwave trough will move eastward out of
the Rockies and into central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma by late
afternoon. This will progress the front southeast through the day,
however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front where both shear and instability will be favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms. Main hazards will be hail and damaging
winds. The front should move out of the CWA by late afternoon on
Thursday and with the upper trough axis moving through in the
evening have kept a small chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
southeast of Interstate 35. Temperatures Thursday will vary from the
mid to upper 60s behind the front to the mid 70s ahead of the front.

Drier air begins to move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the
front and upper level trough in northwest flow. Energy on the back
side of the upper trough will move through during the day on Friday
as well as and upper level jet maximum around 120 kts. Stronger
winds will mix down from around 850 mb with surface winds increasing
to around 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts through the afternoon
hours. Temperatures around only expected to top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Friday night high pressure will build into central and
eastern Kansas with winds becoming light along with mostly clear
skies temperatures are expected to fall into the mid and upper 30s.
On Sunday an upper level trough will move southeast across the
Central Plains and bring another frontal boundary southeast across
eastern Kansas. No precipitation is expected as there will be little
in the way of moisture. Dry northwest flow will continue into
Tuesday with heights gradually rising Monday through Tuesday
translating into temperatures warming to slightly above seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

While morning thunderstorm redevelopment not out of the question,
appears that chances too low to add to TAFS in eastern KS.
Development of more concentrated areas of thunderstorms expected
late afternoon and evening, but chances at any given TAF site not
high, thus VCTS in weather at TAFS. Main system coming out tonight
so more widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain and better
chances IFR expected after midnight.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...GDP







000
FXUS63 KTOP 011703
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1203 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Ran an update to current forecast mainly for current conditions
and evolving convective potential for this afternoon into evening.
Cooler air and associated cloud cover north of the inverted
surface trof has pushed farther southward, with radar suggesting
it has stalled generally south of Salina extending northeast
toward Hiawatha. Starting to get some clearing behind the
departing shortwave now moving into Iowa.  Dewpoints in southeast
Kansas are 70F and streaming northward in southerly surface flow.
Can see a dry slot moving across northern Oklahoma and would
influence conditions later this afternoon across southeast
possibly into east central Kansas. Think it will be a few hours
before atmosphere resets and surface trof can sharpen up a bit to
increase convergence to aid in lift for storms. Also increasing
850mb wind speeds increase and back to around 25-30kts along and
southeast of the turnpike in the late afternoon into early evening
and would also provide increased low level shear profiles for
thunderstorms. So overall, severe risk for this afternoon and
evening is greater along and south of the interstate, and along
and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Entire area remains under a
slight risk for later into the overnight hours, as main upper trof
shifts out of the Rockies into the Plains and spreads convection
over most of the forecast area by sunrise.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

At current time am not seeing redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms over central KS and thus have decreased POPs for the
morning hours for much of central and eastern KS. Redevelopment
this afternoon still looks like a good bet with east central KS
still the favored area for the most significant storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Challenging forecast for today and tonight across eastern KS.  Water
vapor and regional radar loops show area of convection moving east
across northeast and east central KS at 3 AM.  Another shortwave
trough moving into western KS not having much effect with subsidence
behind aforementioned convection preventing any additional
development so far this morning.  Rainfall rates have been around an
inch an hour most places with KTWX dual pol precip estimates doing
pretty good, showing the greatest amounts so far of 1.5" to 2.5" in
a narrow band from Minneapolis to Blue Rapids, northeast into
Southeast Nebraska.

Some clearing has developed across north central KS this morning
with fog developing over the area.  Have added mention of areas of
fog through mid-morning for that area.

Additional rainfall today and tonight a concern with at least a
couple rounds of thunderstorms expected, some of it may be heavy.
Models have not been real consistent in forecasting location of
heaviest rainfall, although the latest runs have come into more
agreement with best rainfall chances this morning and early
afternoon in the far east, then redevelopment favored over east
central KS late this afternoon or evening.

Combination of some heating and lift along possible residual outflow
boundary, expected to be located near east central KS, looks to be
favored area for redevelopment of robust convection after 21Z today.
Besides heavy rainfall, forecast hodographs in this area, especially
from NAM, would appear to be favorable for supercells, with a
tornado or two possible.

Main upper trough then moves eastward onto the High Plains after
midnight.  Low-level warm advection will combine with forcing aloft
to produce another area of thunderstorms overnight.  Instability
should be elevated above shallow cool air and any severe weather
that might develop later tonight would be mainly hail.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Expect convection to be ongoing Thursday morning to start the day.
Surface frontal boundary should extend from northeast corner of
Kansas southeast along the Turnpike to a surface low south of
Wichita Thursday Morning. Longwave trough will move eastward out of
the Rockies and into central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma by late
afternoon. This will progress the front southeast through the day,
however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front where both shear and instability will be favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms. Main hazards will be hail and damaging
winds. The front should move out of the CWA by late afternoon on
Thursday and with the upper trough axis moving through in the
evening have kept a small chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
southeast of Interstate 35. Temperatures Thursday will vary from the
mid to upper 60s behind the front to the mid 70s ahead of the front.

Drier air begins to move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the
front and upper level trough in northwest flow. Energy on the back
side of the upper trough will move through during the day on Friday
as well as and upper level jet maximum around 120 kts. Stronger
winds will mix down from around 850 mb with surface winds increasing
to around 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts through the afternoon
hours. Temperatures around only expected to top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Friday night high pressure will build into central and
eastern Kansas with winds becoming light along with mostly clear
skies temperatures are expected to fall into the mid and upper 30s.
On Sunday an upper level trough will move southeast across the
Central Plains and bring another frontal boundary southeast across
eastern Kansas. No precipitation is expected as there will be little
in the way of moisture. Dry northwest flow will continue into
Tuesday with heights gradually rising Monday through Tuesday
translating into temperatures warming to slightly above seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

While morning thunderstorm redevelopment not out of the question,
appears that chances too low to add to TAFS in eastern KS.
Development of more concentrated areas of thunderstorms expected
late afternoon and evening, but chances at any given TAF site not
high, thus VCTS in weather at TAFS. Main system coming out tonight
so more widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain and better
chances IFR expected after midnight.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...GDP






000
FXUS63 KICT 011654
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE WEAK/MODEST...AND WITH
WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...QUESTIONS ARISE ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG
HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING THE THREAT
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE NOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD
RETREATING WARM FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUD BASES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IS GENERALLY EAST
OF ANTHONY-HUTCHINSON...AND SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON-HILLSBORO.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY.

RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OK...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
E-NE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU AS WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE OTHER MORNING CONCERN WILL BE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE KRSL TAF
AS THE STATIONARY WARM FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH
SATURATION IN THE COOLER AIR PRODUCING THIS THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
SOME CONCERN THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
REACH THE KSLN TAF AS WELL...BUT THINK IT WILL STOP PROGRESSING EAST
AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING THIS DECK TO THE HALT BEFORE REACHING KSLN
BEFORE BEGINNING TO ERODE. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KSLN TAF.
THINK THIS CLOUD/FOG DECK WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...AS
SUNSHINE BURNS IT OFF AND MIXING INCREASES.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS OK PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BULGE
EAST TOWARDS THE KHUT/KICT TAF SITES. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS THINK
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF THIS AREA...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
BY AROUND 00Z/THU. ONCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SEVERE
STORMS NEAR THE KHUT/KICT/KSLN/KRSL TAF SITES...SO WILL NEED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GUSTY WINDS +TSRA WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES...AS STORMS
COME INTO FOCUS.

THINK MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT..SO WILL GO
WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES.  SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE E-NE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW ON THU
AM.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  30  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  30  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  40  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  10  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  10  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  20  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  60  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  60  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  60  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011654
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE WEAK/MODEST...AND WITH
WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...QUESTIONS ARISE ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG
HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING THE THREAT
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE NOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD
RETREATING WARM FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUD BASES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IS GENERALLY EAST
OF ANTHONY-HUTCHINSON...AND SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON-HILLSBORO.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY.

RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OK...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
E-NE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU AS WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE OTHER MORNING CONCERN WILL BE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE KRSL TAF
AS THE STATIONARY WARM FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH
SATURATION IN THE COOLER AIR PRODUCING THIS THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
SOME CONCERN THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
REACH THE KSLN TAF AS WELL...BUT THINK IT WILL STOP PROGRESSING EAST
AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING THIS DECK TO THE HALT BEFORE REACHING KSLN
BEFORE BEGINNING TO ERODE. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KSLN TAF.
THINK THIS CLOUD/FOG DECK WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...AS
SUNSHINE BURNS IT OFF AND MIXING INCREASES.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS OK PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BULGE
EAST TOWARDS THE KHUT/KICT TAF SITES. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS THINK
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF THIS AREA...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
BY AROUND 00Z/THU. ONCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SEVERE
STORMS NEAR THE KHUT/KICT/KSLN/KRSL TAF SITES...SO WILL NEED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GUSTY WINDS +TSRA WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES...AS STORMS
COME INTO FOCUS.

THINK MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT..SO WILL GO
WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES.  SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE E-NE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW ON THU
AM.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  30  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  30  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  40  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  10  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  10  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  20  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  60  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  60  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  60  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011654
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE WEAK/MODEST...AND WITH
WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...QUESTIONS ARISE ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG
HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING THE THREAT
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE NOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD
RETREATING WARM FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUD BASES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IS GENERALLY EAST
OF ANTHONY-HUTCHINSON...AND SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON-HILLSBORO.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY.

RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OK...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
E-NE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU AS WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE OTHER MORNING CONCERN WILL BE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE KRSL TAF
AS THE STATIONARY WARM FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH
SATURATION IN THE COOLER AIR PRODUCING THIS THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
SOME CONCERN THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
REACH THE KSLN TAF AS WELL...BUT THINK IT WILL STOP PROGRESSING EAST
AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING THIS DECK TO THE HALT BEFORE REACHING KSLN
BEFORE BEGINNING TO ERODE. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KSLN TAF.
THINK THIS CLOUD/FOG DECK WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...AS
SUNSHINE BURNS IT OFF AND MIXING INCREASES.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS OK PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BULGE
EAST TOWARDS THE KHUT/KICT TAF SITES. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS THINK
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF THIS AREA...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
BY AROUND 00Z/THU. ONCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SEVERE
STORMS NEAR THE KHUT/KICT/KSLN/KRSL TAF SITES...SO WILL NEED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GUSTY WINDS +TSRA WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES...AS STORMS
COME INTO FOCUS.

THINK MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT..SO WILL GO
WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES.  SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE E-NE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW ON THU
AM.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  30  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  30  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  40  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  10  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  10  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  20  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  60  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  60  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  60  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011654
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE WEAK/MODEST...AND WITH
WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...QUESTIONS ARISE ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG
HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING THE THREAT
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE NOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD
RETREATING WARM FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUD BASES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IS GENERALLY EAST
OF ANTHONY-HUTCHINSON...AND SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON-HILLSBORO.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY.

RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OK...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
E-NE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU AS WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE OTHER MORNING CONCERN WILL BE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE KRSL TAF
AS THE STATIONARY WARM FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH
SATURATION IN THE COOLER AIR PRODUCING THIS THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
SOME CONCERN THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
REACH THE KSLN TAF AS WELL...BUT THINK IT WILL STOP PROGRESSING EAST
AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING THIS DECK TO THE HALT BEFORE REACHING KSLN
BEFORE BEGINNING TO ERODE. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KSLN TAF.
THINK THIS CLOUD/FOG DECK WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...AS
SUNSHINE BURNS IT OFF AND MIXING INCREASES.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS OK PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BULGE
EAST TOWARDS THE KHUT/KICT TAF SITES. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS THINK
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF THIS AREA...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
BY AROUND 00Z/THU. ONCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SEVERE
STORMS NEAR THE KHUT/KICT/KSLN/KRSL TAF SITES...SO WILL NEED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GUSTY WINDS +TSRA WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES...AS STORMS
COME INTO FOCUS.

THINK MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT..SO WILL GO
WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES.  SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE E-NE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW ON THU
AM.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  30  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  30  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  40  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  10  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  10  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  20  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  60  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  60  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  60  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 011211
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
711 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. -JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. -RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OK...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
E-NE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU AS WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE OTHER MORNING CONCERN WILL BE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE KRSL TAF
AS THE STATIONARY WARM FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH
SATURATION IN THE COOLER AIR PRODUCING THIS THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
SOME CONCERN THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
REACH THE KSLN TAF AS WELL...BUT THINK IT WILL STOP PROGRESSING EAST
AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING THIS DECK TO THE HALT BEFORE REACHING KSLN
BEFORE BEGINNING TO ERODE. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KSLN TAF.
THINK THIS CLOUD/FOG DECK WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...AS
SUNSHINE BURNS IT OFF AND MIXING INCREASES.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS OK PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BULGE
EAST TOWARDS THE KHUT/KICT TAF SITES. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS THINK
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF THIS AREA...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
BY AROUND 00Z/THU. ONCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SEVERE
STORMS NEAR THE KHUT/KICT/KSLN/KRSL TAF SITES...SO WILL NEED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GUSTY WINDS +TSRA WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES...AS STORMS
COME INTO FOCUS.

THINK MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT..SO WILL GO
WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES.  SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE E-NE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW ON THU
AM.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  20  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  30  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  40  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  20  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  20  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  20  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  60  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  60  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  60  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 011211
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
711 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. -JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. -RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OK...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
E-NE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU AS WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE OTHER MORNING CONCERN WILL BE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE KRSL TAF
AS THE STATIONARY WARM FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH
SATURATION IN THE COOLER AIR PRODUCING THIS THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
SOME CONCERN THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
REACH THE KSLN TAF AS WELL...BUT THINK IT WILL STOP PROGRESSING EAST
AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING THIS DECK TO THE HALT BEFORE REACHING KSLN
BEFORE BEGINNING TO ERODE. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KSLN TAF.
THINK THIS CLOUD/FOG DECK WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...AS
SUNSHINE BURNS IT OFF AND MIXING INCREASES.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS OK PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BULGE
EAST TOWARDS THE KHUT/KICT TAF SITES. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS THINK
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF THIS AREA...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
BY AROUND 00Z/THU. ONCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SEVERE
STORMS NEAR THE KHUT/KICT/KSLN/KRSL TAF SITES...SO WILL NEED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GUSTY WINDS +TSRA WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES...AS STORMS
COME INTO FOCUS.

THINK MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT..SO WILL GO
WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES.  SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE E-NE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW ON THU
AM.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  20  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  30  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  40  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  20  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  20  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  20  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  60  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  60  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  60  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 011150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KGLD SHOWS STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET OFF THE
GROUND...WHICH GIVES SOME CONCERN AS TO LLWS. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH LATER THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO KGLD AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY FOG HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF KMCK THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING AREAS OF FOG VERY NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL WARRANTS AN MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN A FEW HOURS TOWARD
MID MORNING TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KGLD SHOWS STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET OFF THE
GROUND...WHICH GIVES SOME CONCERN AS TO LLWS. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH LATER THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO KGLD AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY FOG HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF KMCK THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING AREAS OF FOG VERY NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL WARRANTS AN MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN A FEW HOURS TOWARD
MID MORNING TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KGLD SHOWS STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET OFF THE
GROUND...WHICH GIVES SOME CONCERN AS TO LLWS. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH LATER THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO KGLD AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY FOG HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF KMCK THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING AREAS OF FOG VERY NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL WARRANTS AN MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN A FEW HOURS TOWARD
MID MORNING TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 011150
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
550 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

VAD WIND PROFILE FOR KGLD SHOWS STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET OFF THE
GROUND...WHICH GIVES SOME CONCERN AS TO LLWS. RAP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS LOWER LEVEL JET SHOULD DECREASE IN STRENGTH LATER THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE NEAR TERM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING SHOWERS TO KGLD AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY FOG HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF KMCK THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING AREAS OF FOG VERY NEAR THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL WARRANTS AN MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN A FEW HOURS TOWARD
MID MORNING TO ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KTOP 011145
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Update to short term and aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

At current time am not seeing redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms over central KS and thus have decreased POPs for the
morning hours for much of central and eastern KS. Redevelopment
this afternoon still looks like a good bet with east central KS
still the favored area for the most significant storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Challenging forecast for today and tonight across eastern KS.  Water
vapor and regional radar loops show area of convection moving east
across northeast and east central KS at 3 AM.  Another shortwave
trough moving into western KS not having much effect with subsidence
behind aforementioned convection preventing any additional
development so far this morning.  Rainfall rates have been around an
inch an hour most places with KTWX dual pol precip estimates doing
pretty good, showing the greatest amounts so far of 1.5" to 2.5" in
a narrow band from Minneapolis to Blue Rapids, northeast into
southest Nebraska.

Some clearing has developed across north central KS this morning
with fog developing over the area.  Have added mention of areas of
fog through mid-morning for that area.

Additional rainfall today and tonight a concern with at least a
couple rounds of thunderstorms expected, some of it may be heavy.
Models have not been real consistent in forecasting location of
heaviest rainfall, although the latest runs have come into more
agreement with best rainfall chances this morning and early
afternoon in the far east, then redevelopment favored over east
central KS late this afternoon or evening.

Combination of some heating and lift along possible residual outflow
boundary, expected to be located near east central KS, looks to be
favored area for redevelopment of robust convection after 21Z today.
Besides heavy rainfall, forecast hodographs in this area, especially
from NAM, would appear to be favorable for supercells, with a
tornado or two possible.

Main upper trough then moves eastward onto the High Plains after
midnight.  Low-level warm advection will combine with forcing aloft
to produce another area of thunderstorms overnight.  Instability
should be elevated above shallow cool air and any severe weather
that might develop later tonight would be mainly hail.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Expect convection to be ongoing Thursday morning to start the day.
Surface frontal boundary should extend from northeast corner of
Kansas southeast along the Turnpike to a surface low south of
Wichita Thursday Morning. Longwave trough will move eastward out of
the Rockies and into central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma by late
afternoon. This will progress the front southeast through the day,
however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front where both shear and instability will be favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms. Main hazards will be hail and damaging
winds. The front should move out of the CWA by late afternoon on
Thursday and with the upper trough axis moving through in the
evening have kept a small chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
southeast of Interstate 35. Temperatures Thursday will vary from the
mid to upper 60s behind the front to the mid 70s ahead of the front.

Drier air begins to move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the
front and upper level trough in northwest flow. Energy on the back
side of the upper trough will move through during the day on Friday
as well as and upper level jet maximum around 120 kts. Stronger
winds will mix down from around 850 mb with surface winds increasing
to around 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts through the afternoon
hours. Temperatures around only expected to top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Friday night high pressure will build into central and
eastern Kansas with winds becoming light along with mostly clear
skies temperatures are expected to fall into the mid and upper 30s.
On Sunday an upper level trough will move southeast across the
Central Plains and bring another frontal boundary southeast across
eastern Kansas. No precipitation is expected as there will be little
in the way of moisture. Dry northwest flow will continue into
Tuesday with heights gradually rising Monday through Tuesday
translating into temperatures warming to slightly above seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

While morning thunderstorm redevelopment not out of the question,
appears that chances too low to add to TAFS in eastern KS.
Development of more concentrated areas of thunderstorms expected
late afternoon and evening, but chances at any given TAF site not
high, thus VCTS in weather at TAFS. Main system coming out tonight
so more widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain and better
chances IFR expected after midnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...GDP







000
FXUS63 KTOP 011145
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

...Update to short term and aviation forecast discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

At current time am not seeing redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms over central KS and thus have decreased POPs for the
morning hours for much of central and eastern KS. Redevelopment
this afternoon still looks like a good bet with east central KS
still the favored area for the most significant storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Challenging forecast for today and tonight across eastern KS.  Water
vapor and regional radar loops show area of convection moving east
across northeast and east central KS at 3 AM.  Another shortwave
trough moving into western KS not having much effect with subsidence
behind aforementioned convection preventing any additional
development so far this morning.  Rainfall rates have been around an
inch an hour most places with KTWX dual pol precip estimates doing
pretty good, showing the greatest amounts so far of 1.5" to 2.5" in
a narrow band from Minneapolis to Blue Rapids, northeast into
southest Nebraska.

Some clearing has developed across north central KS this morning
with fog developing over the area.  Have added mention of areas of
fog through mid-morning for that area.

Additional rainfall today and tonight a concern with at least a
couple rounds of thunderstorms expected, some of it may be heavy.
Models have not been real consistent in forecasting location of
heaviest rainfall, although the latest runs have come into more
agreement with best rainfall chances this morning and early
afternoon in the far east, then redevelopment favored over east
central KS late this afternoon or evening.

Combination of some heating and lift along possible residual outflow
boundary, expected to be located near east central KS, looks to be
favored area for redevelopment of robust convection after 21Z today.
Besides heavy rainfall, forecast hodographs in this area, especially
from NAM, would appear to be favorable for supercells, with a
tornado or two possible.

Main upper trough then moves eastward onto the High Plains after
midnight.  Low-level warm advection will combine with forcing aloft
to produce another area of thunderstorms overnight.  Instability
should be elevated above shallow cool air and any severe weather
that might develop later tonight would be mainly hail.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Expect convection to be ongoing Thursday morning to start the day.
Surface frontal boundary should extend from northeast corner of
Kansas southeast along the Turnpike to a surface low south of
Wichita Thursday Morning. Longwave trough will move eastward out of
the Rockies and into central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma by late
afternoon. This will progress the front southeast through the day,
however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front where both shear and instability will be favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms. Main hazards will be hail and damaging
winds. The front should move out of the CWA by late afternoon on
Thursday and with the upper trough axis moving through in the
evening have kept a small chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
southeast of Interstate 35. Temperatures Thursday will vary from the
mid to upper 60s behind the front to the mid 70s ahead of the front.

Drier air begins to move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the
front and upper level trough in northwest flow. Energy on the back
side of the upper trough will move through during the day on Friday
as well as and upper level jet maximum around 120 kts. Stronger
winds will mix down from around 850 mb with surface winds increasing
to around 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts through the afternoon
hours. Temperatures around only expected to top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Friday night high pressure will build into central and
eastern Kansas with winds becoming light along with mostly clear
skies temperatures are expected to fall into the mid and upper 30s.
On Sunday an upper level trough will move southeast across the
Central Plains and bring another frontal boundary southeast across
eastern Kansas. No precipitation is expected as there will be little
in the way of moisture. Dry northwest flow will continue into
Tuesday with heights gradually rising Monday through Tuesday
translating into temperatures warming to slightly above seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

While morning thunderstorm redevelopment not out of the question,
appears that chances too low to add to TAFS in eastern KS.
Development of more concentrated areas of thunderstorms expected
late afternoon and evening, but chances at any given TAF site not
high, thus VCTS in weather at TAFS. Main system coming out tonight
so more widespread thunderstorms with heavy rain and better
chances IFR expected after midnight.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GDP
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...GDP






000
FXUS63 KDDC 011122
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
HYS TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  46 /  10  30  30   0
GCK  81  51  69  44 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  45 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  70  46 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  66  42 /  20  70  40  10
P28  89  61  72  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 011122
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
622 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

DENSE FOG DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
HYS TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  46 /  10  30  30   0
GCK  81  51  69  44 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  45 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  70  46 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  66  42 /  20  70  40  10
P28  89  61  72  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ030-031-
045-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KGLD 011033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 011033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BROAD TROUGH IS OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC.

MODELS INITIALIZED FINE AT JET LEVEL AND AT MID LEVELS. THE NAM
WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT A
LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE FOG AND STRATUS
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED. LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE
ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN THE EASTERN SIX COUNTIES. THE
SMALL SCALE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS WELL WITH THE HRRR VERY
CLOSE.

SO NOT ONLY HAVE INCREASED/EXPANDED COVERAGE AND EXTENT...BUT HAVE
ALSO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN SIX
COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. NOW TO THE PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
MORNING THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF STRONG UPPER JET MOVES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND BY 18Z WILL BE AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST WITH THE LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER JET KEEPS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND SOME KIND OF JET
LIFT AFFECTS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF EITHER A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
OR A COUPLE JET STRUCTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF OUR BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AND MORE STABLE OVER THE AREA UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAVE CONFINED THEM TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

ALL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA RECEIVING RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT
GREAT WITH CAPE BELOW 1000. HOWEVER SHEAR IS VERY GOOD AND MAY
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE RISES NEAR
5 MB WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WHAT COULD ENHANCE THIS THREAT IS THE EXPECTED COLD POOL
GENERATE BY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LIFT LOOK TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL LATE IN THE MORNING. BREEZY WINDS IN THE
MORNING SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE NOW
STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH POTENT UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE
NIGHT.

LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JETS AND SOUTHERN END OF ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN LOCATIONS...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JET LIFT AND STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACTING ON LOW
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SO
ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES APPROACHING 10 MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET AXIS IS NEAR/OVER THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE DAY. BY 18Z THIS JET MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ALSO
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN TO ALLOW SOME MIXING
TO OCCUR. WINDS AT 700 MB RANGE FROM 40 KNOTS TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER
MODELS ARE NOT MIXING TO THIS HEIGHT DUE TO WHAT LOOKS LIKE POOR
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER IF BETTER MIXING OCCURS WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE MET...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL...MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER THAN THAT. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING VERY WARM AND
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
DEWPOINTS...THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON COULD BE
REACHED. PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ003-004-
     015-016-029.

CO...NONE.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010911
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Challenging forecast for today and tonight across eastern KS.  Water
vapor and regional radar loops show area of convection moving east
across northeast and east central KS at 3 AM.  Another shortwave
trough moving into western KS not having much effect with subsidence
behind aforementioned convection preventing any additional
development so far this morning.  Rainfall rates have been around an
inch an hour most places with KTWX dual pol precip estimates doing
pretty good, showing the greatest amounts so far of 1.5" to 2.5" in
a narrow band from Minneapolis to Blue Rapids, northeast into
southest Nebraska.

Some clearing has developed across north central KS this morning
with fog developing over the area.  Have added mention of areas of
fog through mid-morning for that area.

Additional rainfall today and tonight a concern with at least a
couple rounds of thunderstorms expected, some of it may be heavy.
Models have not been real consistent in forecasting location of
heaviest rainfall, although the latest runs have come into more
agreement with best rainfall chances this morning and early
afternoon in the far east, then redevelopment favored over east
central KS late this afternoon or evening.

Combination of some heating and lift along possible residual outflow
boundary, expected to be located near east central KS, looks to be
favored area for redevelopment of robust convection after 21Z today.
Besides heavy rainfall, forecast hodographs in this area, especially
from NAM, would appear to be favorable for supercells, with a
tornado or two possible.

Main upper trough then moves eastward onto the High Plains after
midnight.  Low-level warm advection will combine with forcing aloft
to produce another area of thunderstorms overnight.  Instability
should be elevated above shallow cool air and any severe weather
that might develop later tonight would be mainly hail.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Expect convection to be ongoing Thursday morning to start the day.
Surface frontal boundary should extend from northeast corner of
Kansas southeast along the Turnpike to a surface low south of
Wichita Thursday Morning. Longwave trough will move eastward out of
the Rockies and into central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma by late
afternoon. This will progress the front southeast through the day,
however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front where both shear and instability will be favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms. Main hazards will be hail and damaging
winds. The front should move out of the CWA by late afternoon on
Thursday and with the upper trough axis moving through in the
evening have kept a small chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
southeast of Interstate 35. Temperatures Thursday will vary from the
mid to upper 60s behind the front to the mid 70s ahead of the front.

Drier air begins to move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the
front and upper level trough in northwest flow. Energy on the back
side of the upper trough will move through during the day on Friday
as well as and upper level jet maximum around 120 kts. Stronger
winds will mix down from around 850 mb with surface winds increasing
to around 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts through the afternoon
hours. Temperatures around only expected to top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Friday night high pressure will build into central and
eastern Kansas with winds becoming light along with mostly clear
skies temperatures are expected to fall into the mid and upper 30s.
On Sunday an upper level trough will move southeast across the
Central Plains and bring another frontal boundary southeast across
eastern Kansas. No precipitation is expected as there will be little
in the way of moisture. Dry northwest flow will continue into
Tuesday with heights gradually rising Monday through Tuesday
translating into temperatures warming to slightly above seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Main bands of convection expected to affect KMHK through 08z and
the KTOP/KFOE terminals 08z-12z before diminishing with ocnl
mvfr/IFR vsbys in heavier rainfall. Otherwise expect a lull in
precip then through 17z with VFR conditions before more convection
develops in the vcnty from 22z through the end of the terminal fcst.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 010911
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
411 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Challenging forecast for today and tonight across eastern KS.  Water
vapor and regional radar loops show area of convection moving east
across northeast and east central KS at 3 AM.  Another shortwave
trough moving into western KS not having much effect with subsidence
behind aforementioned convection preventing any additional
development so far this morning.  Rainfall rates have been around an
inch an hour most places with KTWX dual pol precip estimates doing
pretty good, showing the greatest amounts so far of 1.5" to 2.5" in
a narrow band from Minneapolis to Blue Rapids, northeast into
southest Nebraska.

Some clearing has developed across north central KS this morning
with fog developing over the area.  Have added mention of areas of
fog through mid-morning for that area.

Additional rainfall today and tonight a concern with at least a
couple rounds of thunderstorms expected, some of it may be heavy.
Models have not been real consistent in forecasting location of
heaviest rainfall, although the latest runs have come into more
agreement with best rainfall chances this morning and early
afternoon in the far east, then redevelopment favored over east
central KS late this afternoon or evening.

Combination of some heating and lift along possible residual outflow
boundary, expected to be located near east central KS, looks to be
favored area for redevelopment of robust convection after 21Z today.
Besides heavy rainfall, forecast hodographs in this area, especially
from NAM, would appear to be favorable for supercells, with a
tornado or two possible.

Main upper trough then moves eastward onto the High Plains after
midnight.  Low-level warm advection will combine with forcing aloft
to produce another area of thunderstorms overnight.  Instability
should be elevated above shallow cool air and any severe weather
that might develop later tonight would be mainly hail.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

Expect convection to be ongoing Thursday morning to start the day.
Surface frontal boundary should extend from northeast corner of
Kansas southeast along the Turnpike to a surface low south of
Wichita Thursday Morning. Longwave trough will move eastward out of
the Rockies and into central sections of Kansas and Oklahoma by late
afternoon. This will progress the front southeast through the day,
however additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
front where both shear and instability will be favorable for strong
to severe thunderstorms. Main hazards will be hail and damaging
winds. The front should move out of the CWA by late afternoon on
Thursday and with the upper trough axis moving through in the
evening have kept a small chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
southeast of Interstate 35. Temperatures Thursday will vary from the
mid to upper 60s behind the front to the mid 70s ahead of the front.

Drier air begins to move into eastern Kansas in the wake of the
front and upper level trough in northwest flow. Energy on the back
side of the upper trough will move through during the day on Friday
as well as and upper level jet maximum around 120 kts. Stronger
winds will mix down from around 850 mb with surface winds increasing
to around 20 kts with gusts around 30 kts through the afternoon
hours. Temperatures around only expected to top out in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Friday night high pressure will build into central and
eastern Kansas with winds becoming light along with mostly clear
skies temperatures are expected to fall into the mid and upper 30s.
On Sunday an upper level trough will move southeast across the
Central Plains and bring another frontal boundary southeast across
eastern Kansas. No precipitation is expected as there will be little
in the way of moisture. Dry northwest flow will continue into
Tuesday with heights gradually rising Monday through Tuesday
translating into temperatures warming to slightly above seasonal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Main bands of convection expected to affect KMHK through 08z and
the KTOP/KFOE terminals 08z-12z before diminishing with ocnl
mvfr/IFR vsbys in heavier rainfall. Otherwise expect a lull in
precip then through 17z with VFR conditions before more convection
develops in the vcnty from 22z through the end of the terminal fcst.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KICT 010806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. -JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. -RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT FOR MAINLY ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KCNU/KSLN. POSSIBLE THAT KHUT/KICT MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FORECAST. STILL
TOUGH CALL ON SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS
ON WHEN/WHERE/STORMS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KCNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
LOCATION/TIMING FOR TAFS...WITH CURRENT THINKING BEST CHANCES IN
THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KRSL CLOSE TO/AFTER 00Z...WITH KICT/KHUT
POTENTIALLY NEAR DRYLINE WITH BRUNT OF STORMS GOING TO THE EAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  20  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  20  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  30  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  30  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  30  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  40  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 010806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. -JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. -RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT FOR MAINLY ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KCNU/KSLN. POSSIBLE THAT KHUT/KICT MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FORECAST. STILL
TOUGH CALL ON SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS
ON WHEN/WHERE/STORMS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KCNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
LOCATION/TIMING FOR TAFS...WITH CURRENT THINKING BEST CHANCES IN
THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KRSL CLOSE TO/AFTER 00Z...WITH KICT/KHUT
POTENTIALLY NEAR DRYLINE WITH BRUNT OF STORMS GOING TO THE EAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  20  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  40  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  20  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  30  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  30  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  30  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  40  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  40  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KGLD 010802
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY
CONDITIONS...SO DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE 06-12Z PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 010802
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING
LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY
CONDITIONS...SO DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLACE 06-12Z PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. LACK OF FORCING AND JET WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010724
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
224 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGHT SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHWEST KANSAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70
CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  46 /  10  30  30   0
GCK  81  51  69  44 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  45 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  70  46 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  66  42 /  10  70  40  10
P28  89  61  72  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010643
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
143 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THTA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  47 /  10  30  20   0
GCK  81  51  69  45 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  46 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  71  48 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  67  46 /  10  70  30  10
P28  89  61  73  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010643
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
143 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THTA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  47 /  10  30  20   0
GCK  81  51  69  45 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  46 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  71  48 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  67  46 /  10  70  30  10
P28  89  61  73  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010643
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
143 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THTA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  47 /  10  30  20   0
GCK  81  51  69  45 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  46 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  71  48 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  67  46 /  10  70  30  10
P28  89  61  73  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010643
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
143 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL END AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE PANHANDLE
OF TEXAS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. UPPER 80S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTHWEST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATER TODAY, A
WEDGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN
KANSAS AS A EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND 850MB TO 700MB FRONTOGENESIS BOTH IMPROVE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WESTERN KANSAS AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL COLORADO. 00Z NAM 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH CAPE VALUES JUST NORTH OF OUR
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL RANGE FROM
1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS THAT IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP
IN THIS AREA THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE ON
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LATE TODAY AND THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BY
LATE DAY WILL BE WEST OF THIS AREA AND BE CONFINED MAINLY EASTERN
COLORADO/EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS. STILL GIVEN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THTA-E ADVECTION IMPROVING EARLY TONIGHT NEAR THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AM STILL UNABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPROVE AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON WHERE THE
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL FAVOR THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 0-1 KM AGL MEAN WINDS FROM THE NAM BEHIND THIS
FRONT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM 09Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY. GFS ALSO HAD 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AT 12Z THURSDAY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. BASED ON THIS ALONG THE
THE LAYER AVERAGE MIXED LAYER WINDS AND EXPECTED COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF WHEN WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 30
MPH OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WHERE THE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS. ELSEWHERE
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKED ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  53  70  47 /  10  30  20   0
GCK  81  51  69  45 /  10  60  20   0
EHA  80  48  69  46 /  10  20  20   0
LBL  82  52  71  48 /  10  20  20   0
HYS  80  52  67  46 /  10  70  30  10
P28  89  61  73  50 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KICT 010545
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT FOR MAINLY ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KCNU/KSLN. POSSIBLE THAT KHUT/KICT MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FORECAST. STILL
TOUGH CALL ON SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS
ON WHEN/WHERE/STORMS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KCNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
LOCATION/TIMING FOR TAFS...WITH CURRENT THINKING BEST CHANCES IN
THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KRSL CLOSE TO/AFTER 00Z...WITH KICT/KHUT
POTENTIALLY NEAR DRYLINE WITH BRUNT OF STORMS GOING TO THE EAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  73  51  70 /  50  40  10   0
HUTCHINSON      61  71  49  69 /  50  40  10   0
NEWTON          62  72  50  67 /  50  40  10   0
ELDORADO        63  74  51  70 /  60  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  75  51  70 /  50  30  10   0
RUSSELL         55  69  46  67 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      56  69  47  67 /  50  30  10   0
SALINA          60  70  49  67 /  60  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       61  71  49  67 /  50  40  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  77  52  70 /  60  70  20   0
CHANUTE         66  76  51  68 /  60  70  20   0
IOLA            66  75  51  68 /  60  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    66  77  51  69 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 010545
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT FOR MAINLY ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KCNU/KSLN. POSSIBLE THAT KHUT/KICT MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FORECAST. STILL
TOUGH CALL ON SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS
ON WHEN/WHERE/STORMS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KCNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
LOCATION/TIMING FOR TAFS...WITH CURRENT THINKING BEST CHANCES IN
THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KRSL CLOSE TO/AFTER 00Z...WITH KICT/KHUT
POTENTIALLY NEAR DRYLINE WITH BRUNT OF STORMS GOING TO THE EAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  73  51  70 /  50  40  10   0
HUTCHINSON      61  71  49  69 /  50  40  10   0
NEWTON          62  72  50  67 /  50  40  10   0
ELDORADO        63  74  51  70 /  60  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  75  51  70 /  50  30  10   0
RUSSELL         55  69  46  67 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      56  69  47  67 /  50  30  10   0
SALINA          60  70  49  67 /  60  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       61  71  49  67 /  50  40  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  77  52  70 /  60  70  20   0
CHANUTE         66  76  51  68 /  60  70  20   0
IOLA            66  75  51  68 /  60  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    66  77  51  69 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 010545
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT FOR MAINLY ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KCNU/KSLN. POSSIBLE THAT KHUT/KICT MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FORECAST. STILL
TOUGH CALL ON SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS
ON WHEN/WHERE/STORMS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KCNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
LOCATION/TIMING FOR TAFS...WITH CURRENT THINKING BEST CHANCES IN
THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KRSL CLOSE TO/AFTER 00Z...WITH KICT/KHUT
POTENTIALLY NEAR DRYLINE WITH BRUNT OF STORMS GOING TO THE EAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  73  51  70 /  50  40  10   0
HUTCHINSON      61  71  49  69 /  50  40  10   0
NEWTON          62  72  50  67 /  50  40  10   0
ELDORADO        63  74  51  70 /  60  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  75  51  70 /  50  30  10   0
RUSSELL         55  69  46  67 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      56  69  47  67 /  50  30  10   0
SALINA          60  70  49  67 /  60  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       61  71  49  67 /  50  40  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  77  52  70 /  60  70  20   0
CHANUTE         66  76  51  68 /  60  70  20   0
IOLA            66  75  51  68 /  60  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    66  77  51  69 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KICT 010545
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

APPEARS THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT FOR MAINLY ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KCNU/KSLN. POSSIBLE THAT KHUT/KICT MAY SEE
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FORECAST. STILL
TOUGH CALL ON SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS
ON WHEN/WHERE/STORMS WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST
CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KCNU THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON
LOCATION/TIMING FOR TAFS...WITH CURRENT THINKING BEST CHANCES IN
THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KRSL CLOSE TO/AFTER 00Z...WITH KICT/KHUT
POTENTIALLY NEAR DRYLINE WITH BRUNT OF STORMS GOING TO THE EAST.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    64  73  51  70 /  50  40  10   0
HUTCHINSON      61  71  49  69 /  50  40  10   0
NEWTON          62  72  50  67 /  50  40  10   0
ELDORADO        63  74  51  70 /  60  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  75  51  70 /  50  30  10   0
RUSSELL         55  69  46  67 /  60  30  10   0
GREAT BEND      56  69  47  67 /  50  30  10   0
SALINA          60  70  49  67 /  60  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       61  71  49  67 /  50  40  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  77  52  70 /  60  70  20   0
CHANUTE         66  76  51  68 /  60  70  20   0
IOLA            66  75  51  68 /  60  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    66  77  51  69 /  60  70  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 010516
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 200MB JET STREAK.
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WITH CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING BEING LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY. AN 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY VARIED FROM +18C AT NORTH
PLATTE TO +23C AT AMARILLO. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A +4C TO +7C
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. FURTHER NORTH A 850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  70  47  71 /  30  20   0   0
GCK  51  69  45  71 /  50  20   0   0
EHA  50  69  46  72 /  30  20   0   0
LBL  53  71  48  73 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  53  67  46  67 /  50  30  10   0
P28  60  73  50  73 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 010516
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 200MB JET STREAK.
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS WITH CONVECTION
EARLY THIS EVENING BEING LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY. AN 850MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY VARIED FROM +18C AT NORTH
PLATTE TO +23C AT AMARILLO. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A +4C TO +7C
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. FURTHER NORTH A 850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING TO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AROUND DAYBREAK AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
NAM SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR WILL INTRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITY
IN MIST AT ALL TAF SITES. AT HAYS WILL ALSO INSERT A PERIOD OF IFR
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND BY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THESE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
LATE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  70  47  71 /  30  20   0   0
GCK  51  69  45  71 /  50  20   0   0
EHA  50  69  46  72 /  30  20   0   0
LBL  53  71  48  73 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  53  67  46  67 /  50  30  10   0
P28  60  73  50  73 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010455
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Broad long wave trough continues a slow progression east today as a
very strong short wave trough has surged into South Dakota and then
slowed today. Several weaker short wave troughs are moving through
the flow of the main system with influence as far east as north
central Kansas. One upstream wave evident in central CO will
influence the area tonight while a much stronger short wave and
attendant jet streak was evident in water vapor in central Utah back
into northern CA...and will impact the area on Wednesday. At the
surface, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continued much
of the day over north central KS. Here, a zone of weak low level
convergence has been in place, extending from a surface low on the
OK panhandle northeast and then arcing back to the central SD
surface low. Modest instability of 1000-1500 J/kg has developed just
west and southwest of this precip in central KS where there has been
more ample sunshine today.

Through Tonight:
Current shower and t-storm activity in northern KS will gradually
shift northeast and remain un-impressive. However, additional storms
are expected to continue to develop from north central KS back to
the SW amidst the modest instability. Effective shear of 40+ kts
will be sufficient for storm organization in areas with sufficient
instability. Mid level lapse rates are weak though, and it seems
that it will be rather difficult to get a strong updraft...the
exception being if supercell structure can develop. Also, as this
activity moves east through the evening and overnight, it will
encounter weakening instability even of the elevated variety. While
severe weather is thus unlikely overnight, the LLJ will focus over
the area with substantial 850 hPa moisture transport locally. After
4 AM, the LLJ will veer a bit and may become favorable for a slow
backbuilding situation in northeast KS and perhaps a training
situation prior to the backbuilding. This in combination with PW
values in the 80-90th percentile for this time of year suggests
heavy rain likely. Flash flood guidance is quite high (3-4" in 6
hours) so will not issue a flash flood watch at this time, but
certainly can not rule out a bit of flash flooding especially around
sunrise.

Wednesday - Wednesday Evening:
This period remains complicated. There is potential for severe
weather across the area but a bit of uncertainty in how severe it
will be and where the preferred locations will be. The current
thinking, subject to change, is this:

Morning thunderstorms, still potentially exhibiting some
backbuilding and heavy rain characteristics will continue but shift
east of the area by around noon as weak large-scale subsidence
overspreads the area in the wake of a short wave trough. Clouds may
or may not break up a bit, but the interesting thing is that it
seems that moderate instability of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE will develop
even if clouds don`t break up as the driving factor for increased
instability will be an influx of low level moisture (upper 60s
dewpoints). IF breaks in the clouds allow for more heating, the
severe threat seems likely to increase from an already elevated
state. A surface low will intensify over central KS by afternoon
with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough is likely to extend
northeast across north central KS. A punch of dry air will wrap
south of the surface low into south central KS by early evening
while an intense upper jet streak moves into the area for the
evening as well. Low level winds up to 800 hPa will back in advance
of the intensifying sfc low by late afternoon, greatly intensifying
the low level helicity over eastern KS (and to a lesser extent
northern KS) by evening. Some model guidance indicates that outflow
boundaries from early day convection may play a role in the
afternoon convective evolution but this remains uncertain. If
outflow boundaries exist, they would certainly become a focus for
initiation and enhanced vorticity. Wherever storms develop during the
late afternoon and evening hours, the likely storm mode is discrete
to semi-discrete supercells with all hazards possible. The tornado
threat appears to be maximized in east central KS between 6 PM and
10 PM while still possible on either side of that window and to a
lesser extent in northern KS. Given the magnitude of low level
shear/SRH in conjunction with the strong deep shear, a few strong
tornadoes may be possible. Inhibition will increase by late evening
with a decreasing potential for surface based storms...and thus
decreasing tornado potential...although still non-zero through
midnight. Wind and hail potential will continue through the period
with any organized storms, and localized heavy rain/flash flooding
will also be possible but more dependent upon training as storms
should be progressive.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

By 06Z Friday widespread showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing. A strong low level jet will persist mainly across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Although the better
convergence on the the nose of the jet could push into MO during the
pre-dawn hours. By sunrise the sfc front should be located along or
just west of the KS turnpike. The ECMWF is still the fastest
solution with the progression and timing of the front. During this
timeframe the main trough and shortwave energy eject into the
central and southern plains supplying plenty of large scale lift. A
majority of the models still depict a decent amount of elevated
instability, and the deep layer shear increases to 50-60 kts
therefore storms in the morning could still be capable of producing
large hail.

By late morning instability ahead of the front increases
significantly, and soundings show a brief window for surface
convection by noon mainly across east central KS. As the main trough
passes over central KS thunderstorm coverage increases along the
front, and expect that given cape around 3000 j/kg and 50 kts of
deep layer shear there is a risk for severe. The severe threat will
quickly diminishes once the front leaves the area, which should exit
sometime in the early afternoon. If the ECMWF solution is correct
the front should clear our area by noon limiting the severe
convection. Behind the front weak instability across north central
KS will limited thunder, but expect an expansive area of rain
associated with the trough axis moves through far north central KS.
Most of the activity exits by 00Z Friday as strong northwest flow
advects cooler air into the region. By 12Z Saturday morning dew
points may be in the upper 20s. With a pressure gradient still
present mixing could prevent the temps from completely bottoming
out. Therefore have morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, and
the possibility of frost. Forecast still remains dry with northwest flow
aloft and temperatures rebounding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Main bands of convection expected to affect KMHK through 08z and
the KTOP/KFOE terminals 08z-12z before diminishing with ocnl
mvfr/IFR vsbys in heavier rainfall. Otherwise expect a lull in
precip then through 17z with VFR conditions before more convection
develops in the vcnty from 22z through the end of the terminal fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010455
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Broad long wave trough continues a slow progression east today as a
very strong short wave trough has surged into South Dakota and then
slowed today. Several weaker short wave troughs are moving through
the flow of the main system with influence as far east as north
central Kansas. One upstream wave evident in central CO will
influence the area tonight while a much stronger short wave and
attendant jet streak was evident in water vapor in central Utah back
into northern CA...and will impact the area on Wednesday. At the
surface, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continued much
of the day over north central KS. Here, a zone of weak low level
convergence has been in place, extending from a surface low on the
OK panhandle northeast and then arcing back to the central SD
surface low. Modest instability of 1000-1500 J/kg has developed just
west and southwest of this precip in central KS where there has been
more ample sunshine today.

Through Tonight:
Current shower and t-storm activity in northern KS will gradually
shift northeast and remain un-impressive. However, additional storms
are expected to continue to develop from north central KS back to
the SW amidst the modest instability. Effective shear of 40+ kts
will be sufficient for storm organization in areas with sufficient
instability. Mid level lapse rates are weak though, and it seems
that it will be rather difficult to get a strong updraft...the
exception being if supercell structure can develop. Also, as this
activity moves east through the evening and overnight, it will
encounter weakening instability even of the elevated variety. While
severe weather is thus unlikely overnight, the LLJ will focus over
the area with substantial 850 hPa moisture transport locally. After
4 AM, the LLJ will veer a bit and may become favorable for a slow
backbuilding situation in northeast KS and perhaps a training
situation prior to the backbuilding. This in combination with PW
values in the 80-90th percentile for this time of year suggests
heavy rain likely. Flash flood guidance is quite high (3-4" in 6
hours) so will not issue a flash flood watch at this time, but
certainly can not rule out a bit of flash flooding especially around
sunrise.

Wednesday - Wednesday Evening:
This period remains complicated. There is potential for severe
weather across the area but a bit of uncertainty in how severe it
will be and where the preferred locations will be. The current
thinking, subject to change, is this:

Morning thunderstorms, still potentially exhibiting some
backbuilding and heavy rain characteristics will continue but shift
east of the area by around noon as weak large-scale subsidence
overspreads the area in the wake of a short wave trough. Clouds may
or may not break up a bit, but the interesting thing is that it
seems that moderate instability of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE will develop
even if clouds don`t break up as the driving factor for increased
instability will be an influx of low level moisture (upper 60s
dewpoints). IF breaks in the clouds allow for more heating, the
severe threat seems likely to increase from an already elevated
state. A surface low will intensify over central KS by afternoon
with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough is likely to extend
northeast across north central KS. A punch of dry air will wrap
south of the surface low into south central KS by early evening
while an intense upper jet streak moves into the area for the
evening as well. Low level winds up to 800 hPa will back in advance
of the intensifying sfc low by late afternoon, greatly intensifying
the low level helicity over eastern KS (and to a lesser extent
northern KS) by evening. Some model guidance indicates that outflow
boundaries from early day convection may play a role in the
afternoon convective evolution but this remains uncertain. If
outflow boundaries exist, they would certainly become a focus for
initiation and enhanced vorticity. Wherever storms develop during the
late afternoon and evening hours, the likely storm mode is discrete
to semi-discrete supercells with all hazards possible. The tornado
threat appears to be maximized in east central KS between 6 PM and
10 PM while still possible on either side of that window and to a
lesser extent in northern KS. Given the magnitude of low level
shear/SRH in conjunction with the strong deep shear, a few strong
tornadoes may be possible. Inhibition will increase by late evening
with a decreasing potential for surface based storms...and thus
decreasing tornado potential...although still non-zero through
midnight. Wind and hail potential will continue through the period
with any organized storms, and localized heavy rain/flash flooding
will also be possible but more dependent upon training as storms
should be progressive.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

By 06Z Friday widespread showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing. A strong low level jet will persist mainly across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Although the better
convergence on the the nose of the jet could push into MO during the
pre-dawn hours. By sunrise the sfc front should be located along or
just west of the KS turnpike. The ECMWF is still the fastest
solution with the progression and timing of the front. During this
timeframe the main trough and shortwave energy eject into the
central and southern plains supplying plenty of large scale lift. A
majority of the models still depict a decent amount of elevated
instability, and the deep layer shear increases to 50-60 kts
therefore storms in the morning could still be capable of producing
large hail.

By late morning instability ahead of the front increases
significantly, and soundings show a brief window for surface
convection by noon mainly across east central KS. As the main trough
passes over central KS thunderstorm coverage increases along the
front, and expect that given cape around 3000 j/kg and 50 kts of
deep layer shear there is a risk for severe. The severe threat will
quickly diminishes once the front leaves the area, which should exit
sometime in the early afternoon. If the ECMWF solution is correct
the front should clear our area by noon limiting the severe
convection. Behind the front weak instability across north central
KS will limited thunder, but expect an expansive area of rain
associated with the trough axis moves through far north central KS.
Most of the activity exits by 00Z Friday as strong northwest flow
advects cooler air into the region. By 12Z Saturday morning dew
points may be in the upper 20s. With a pressure gradient still
present mixing could prevent the temps from completely bottoming
out. Therefore have morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, and
the possibility of frost. Forecast still remains dry with northwest flow
aloft and temperatures rebounding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Main bands of convection expected to affect KMHK through 08z and
the KTOP/KFOE terminals 08z-12z before diminishing with ocnl
mvfr/IFR vsbys in heavier rainfall. Otherwise expect a lull in
precip then through 17z with VFR conditions before more convection
develops in the vcnty from 22z through the end of the terminal fcst.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KGLD 010147
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 010147
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INPUT PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS. LIGHT
WINDS...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE SO WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KTOP 010021
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Broad long wave trough continues a slow progression east today as a
very strong short wave trough has surged into South Dakota and then
slowed today. Several weaker short wave troughs are moving through
the flow of the main system with influence as far east as north
central Kansas. One upstream wave evident in central CO will
influence the area tonight while a much stronger short wave and
attendant jet streak was evident in water vapor in central Utah back
into northern CA...and will impact the area on Wednesday. At the
surface, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continued much
of the day over north central KS. Here, a zone of weak low level
convergence has been in place, extending from a surface low on the
OK panhandle northeast and then arcing back to the central SD
surface low. Modest instability of 1000-1500 J/kg has developed just
west and southwest of this precip in central KS where there has been
more ample sunshine today.

Through Tonight:
Current shower and t-storm activity in northern KS will gradually
shift northeast and remain un-impressive. However, additional storms
are expected to continue to develop from north central KS back to
the SW amidst the modest instability. Effective shear of 40+ kts
will be sufficient for storm organization in areas with sufficient
instability. Mid level lapse rates are weak though, and it seems
that it will be rather difficult to get a strong updraft...the
exception being if supercell structure can develop. Also, as this
activity moves east through the evening and overnight, it will
encounter weakening instability even of the elevated variety. While
severe weather is thus unlikely overnight, the LLJ will focus over
the area with substantial 850 hPa moisture transport locally. After
4 AM, the LLJ will veer a bit and may become favorable for a slow
backbuilding situation in northeast KS and perhaps a training
situation prior to the backbuilding. This in combination with PW
values in the 80-90th percentile for this time of year suggests
heavy rain likely. Flash flood guidance is quite high (3-4" in 6
hours) so will not issue a flash flood watch at this time, but
certainly can not rule out a bit of flash flooding especially around
sunrise.

Wednesday - Wednesday Evening:
This period remains complicated. There is potential for severe
weather across the area but a bit of uncertainty in how severe it
will be and where the preferred locations will be. The current
thinking, subject to change, is this:

Morning thunderstorms, still potentially exhibiting some
backbuilding and heavy rain characteristics will continue but shift
east of the area by around noon as weak large-scale subsidence
overspreads the area in the wake of a short wave trough. Clouds may
or may not break up a bit, but the interesting thing is that it
seems that moderate instability of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE will develop
even if clouds don`t break up as the driving factor for increased
instability will be an influx of low level moisture (upper 60s
dewpoints). IF breaks in the clouds allow for more heating, the
severe threat seems likely to increase from an already elevated
state. A surface low will intensify over central KS by afternoon
with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough is likely to extend
northeast across north central KS. A punch of dry air will wrap
south of the surface low into south central KS by early evening
while an intense upper jet streak moves into the area for the
evening as well. Low level winds up to 800 hPa will back in advance
of the intensifying sfc low by late afternoon, greatly intensifying
the low level helicity over eastern KS (and to a lesser extent
northern KS) by evening. Some model guidance indicates that outflow
boundaries from early day convection may play a role in the
afternoon convective evolution but this remains uncertain. If
outflow boundaries exist, they would certainly become a focus for
initiation and enhanced vorticity. Wherever storms develop during the
late afternoon and evening hours, the likely storm mode is discrete
to semi-discrete supercells with all hazards possible. The tornado
threat appears to be maximized in east central KS between 6 PM and
10 PM while still possible on either side of that window and to a
lesser extent in northern KS. Given the magnitude of low level
shear/SRH in conjunction with the strong deep shear, a few strong
tornadoes may be possible. Inhibition will increase by late evening
with a decreasing potential for surface based storms...and thus
decreasing tornado potential...although still non-zero through
midnight. Wind and hail potential will continue through the period
with any organized storms, and localized heavy rain/flash flooding
will also be possible but more dependent upon training as storms
should be progressive.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

By 06Z Friday widespread showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing. A strong low level jet will persist mainly across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Although the better
convergence on the the nose of the jet could push into MO during the
pre-dawn hours. By sunrise the sfc front should be located along or
just west of the KS turnpike. The ECMWF is still the fastest
solution with the progression and timing of the front. During this
timeframe the main trough and shortwave energy eject into the
central and southern plains supplying plenty of large scale lift. A
majority of the models still depict a decent amount of elevated
instability, and the deep layer shear increases to 50-60 kts
therefore storms in the morning could still be capable of producing
large hail.

By late morning instability ahead of the front increases
significantly, and soundings show a brief window for surface
convection by noon mainly across east central KS. As the main trough
passes over central KS thunderstorm coverage increases along the
front, and expect that given cape around 3000 j/kg and 50 kts of
deep layer shear there is a risk for severe. The severe threat will
quickly diminishes once the front leaves the area, which should exit
sometime in the early afternoon. If the ECMWF solution is correct
the front should clear our area by noon limiting the severe
convection. Behind the front weak instability across north central
KS will limited thunder, but expect an expansive area of rain
associated with the trough axis moves through far north central KS.
Most of the activity exits by 00Z Friday as strong northwest flow
advects cooler air into the region. By 12Z Saturday morning dew
points may be in the upper 20s. With a pressure gradient still
present mixing could prevent the temps from completely bottoming
out. Therefore have morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, and
the possibility of frost. Forecast still remains dry with northwest flow
aloft and temperatures rebounding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The next 12-14 hour period will be the first challenge with the
TAF period. A round of TS activity west of KMHK will likely impact
the terminal by early morning after 1 Oct 2Z. That threat area
shifts East to KTOP and KFOE by around 4Z time frame and after. After
the 17Z time frame a lull in activity should take place and then
very late in the TAF period, we should begin to see another
potential round of heavier activity begin to take shape but
timing on this is currently lower confidence, however, the
potential will exist.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010021
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Broad long wave trough continues a slow progression east today as a
very strong short wave trough has surged into South Dakota and then
slowed today. Several weaker short wave troughs are moving through
the flow of the main system with influence as far east as north
central Kansas. One upstream wave evident in central CO will
influence the area tonight while a much stronger short wave and
attendant jet streak was evident in water vapor in central Utah back
into northern CA...and will impact the area on Wednesday. At the
surface, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continued much
of the day over north central KS. Here, a zone of weak low level
convergence has been in place, extending from a surface low on the
OK panhandle northeast and then arcing back to the central SD
surface low. Modest instability of 1000-1500 J/kg has developed just
west and southwest of this precip in central KS where there has been
more ample sunshine today.

Through Tonight:
Current shower and t-storm activity in northern KS will gradually
shift northeast and remain un-impressive. However, additional storms
are expected to continue to develop from north central KS back to
the SW amidst the modest instability. Effective shear of 40+ kts
will be sufficient for storm organization in areas with sufficient
instability. Mid level lapse rates are weak though, and it seems
that it will be rather difficult to get a strong updraft...the
exception being if supercell structure can develop. Also, as this
activity moves east through the evening and overnight, it will
encounter weakening instability even of the elevated variety. While
severe weather is thus unlikely overnight, the LLJ will focus over
the area with substantial 850 hPa moisture transport locally. After
4 AM, the LLJ will veer a bit and may become favorable for a slow
backbuilding situation in northeast KS and perhaps a training
situation prior to the backbuilding. This in combination with PW
values in the 80-90th percentile for this time of year suggests
heavy rain likely. Flash flood guidance is quite high (3-4" in 6
hours) so will not issue a flash flood watch at this time, but
certainly can not rule out a bit of flash flooding especially around
sunrise.

Wednesday - Wednesday Evening:
This period remains complicated. There is potential for severe
weather across the area but a bit of uncertainty in how severe it
will be and where the preferred locations will be. The current
thinking, subject to change, is this:

Morning thunderstorms, still potentially exhibiting some
backbuilding and heavy rain characteristics will continue but shift
east of the area by around noon as weak large-scale subsidence
overspreads the area in the wake of a short wave trough. Clouds may
or may not break up a bit, but the interesting thing is that it
seems that moderate instability of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE will develop
even if clouds don`t break up as the driving factor for increased
instability will be an influx of low level moisture (upper 60s
dewpoints). IF breaks in the clouds allow for more heating, the
severe threat seems likely to increase from an already elevated
state. A surface low will intensify over central KS by afternoon
with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough is likely to extend
northeast across north central KS. A punch of dry air will wrap
south of the surface low into south central KS by early evening
while an intense upper jet streak moves into the area for the
evening as well. Low level winds up to 800 hPa will back in advance
of the intensifying sfc low by late afternoon, greatly intensifying
the low level helicity over eastern KS (and to a lesser extent
northern KS) by evening. Some model guidance indicates that outflow
boundaries from early day convection may play a role in the
afternoon convective evolution but this remains uncertain. If
outflow boundaries exist, they would certainly become a focus for
initiation and enhanced vorticity. Wherever storms develop during the
late afternoon and evening hours, the likely storm mode is discrete
to semi-discrete supercells with all hazards possible. The tornado
threat appears to be maximized in east central KS between 6 PM and
10 PM while still possible on either side of that window and to a
lesser extent in northern KS. Given the magnitude of low level
shear/SRH in conjunction with the strong deep shear, a few strong
tornadoes may be possible. Inhibition will increase by late evening
with a decreasing potential for surface based storms...and thus
decreasing tornado potential...although still non-zero through
midnight. Wind and hail potential will continue through the period
with any organized storms, and localized heavy rain/flash flooding
will also be possible but more dependent upon training as storms
should be progressive.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

By 06Z Friday widespread showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing. A strong low level jet will persist mainly across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Although the better
convergence on the the nose of the jet could push into MO during the
pre-dawn hours. By sunrise the sfc front should be located along or
just west of the KS turnpike. The ECMWF is still the fastest
solution with the progression and timing of the front. During this
timeframe the main trough and shortwave energy eject into the
central and southern plains supplying plenty of large scale lift. A
majority of the models still depict a decent amount of elevated
instability, and the deep layer shear increases to 50-60 kts
therefore storms in the morning could still be capable of producing
large hail.

By late morning instability ahead of the front increases
significantly, and soundings show a brief window for surface
convection by noon mainly across east central KS. As the main trough
passes over central KS thunderstorm coverage increases along the
front, and expect that given cape around 3000 j/kg and 50 kts of
deep layer shear there is a risk for severe. The severe threat will
quickly diminishes once the front leaves the area, which should exit
sometime in the early afternoon. If the ECMWF solution is correct
the front should clear our area by noon limiting the severe
convection. Behind the front weak instability across north central
KS will limited thunder, but expect an expansive area of rain
associated with the trough axis moves through far north central KS.
Most of the activity exits by 00Z Friday as strong northwest flow
advects cooler air into the region. By 12Z Saturday morning dew
points may be in the upper 20s. With a pressure gradient still
present mixing could prevent the temps from completely bottoming
out. Therefore have morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, and
the possibility of frost. Forecast still remains dry with northwest flow
aloft and temperatures rebounding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The next 12-14 hour period will be the first challenge with the
TAF period. A round of TS activity west of KMHK will likely impact
the terminal by early morning after 1 Oct 2Z. That threat area
shifts East to KTOP and KFOE by around 4Z time frame and after. After
the 17Z time frame a lull in activity should take place and then
very late in the TAF period, we should begin to see another
potential round of heavier activity begin to take shape but
timing on this is currently lower confidence, however, the
potential will exist.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010021
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Broad long wave trough continues a slow progression east today as a
very strong short wave trough has surged into South Dakota and then
slowed today. Several weaker short wave troughs are moving through
the flow of the main system with influence as far east as north
central Kansas. One upstream wave evident in central CO will
influence the area tonight while a much stronger short wave and
attendant jet streak was evident in water vapor in central Utah back
into northern CA...and will impact the area on Wednesday. At the
surface, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continued much
of the day over north central KS. Here, a zone of weak low level
convergence has been in place, extending from a surface low on the
OK panhandle northeast and then arcing back to the central SD
surface low. Modest instability of 1000-1500 J/kg has developed just
west and southwest of this precip in central KS where there has been
more ample sunshine today.

Through Tonight:
Current shower and t-storm activity in northern KS will gradually
shift northeast and remain un-impressive. However, additional storms
are expected to continue to develop from north central KS back to
the SW amidst the modest instability. Effective shear of 40+ kts
will be sufficient for storm organization in areas with sufficient
instability. Mid level lapse rates are weak though, and it seems
that it will be rather difficult to get a strong updraft...the
exception being if supercell structure can develop. Also, as this
activity moves east through the evening and overnight, it will
encounter weakening instability even of the elevated variety. While
severe weather is thus unlikely overnight, the LLJ will focus over
the area with substantial 850 hPa moisture transport locally. After
4 AM, the LLJ will veer a bit and may become favorable for a slow
backbuilding situation in northeast KS and perhaps a training
situation prior to the backbuilding. This in combination with PW
values in the 80-90th percentile for this time of year suggests
heavy rain likely. Flash flood guidance is quite high (3-4" in 6
hours) so will not issue a flash flood watch at this time, but
certainly can not rule out a bit of flash flooding especially around
sunrise.

Wednesday - Wednesday Evening:
This period remains complicated. There is potential for severe
weather across the area but a bit of uncertainty in how severe it
will be and where the preferred locations will be. The current
thinking, subject to change, is this:

Morning thunderstorms, still potentially exhibiting some
backbuilding and heavy rain characteristics will continue but shift
east of the area by around noon as weak large-scale subsidence
overspreads the area in the wake of a short wave trough. Clouds may
or may not break up a bit, but the interesting thing is that it
seems that moderate instability of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE will develop
even if clouds don`t break up as the driving factor for increased
instability will be an influx of low level moisture (upper 60s
dewpoints). IF breaks in the clouds allow for more heating, the
severe threat seems likely to increase from an already elevated
state. A surface low will intensify over central KS by afternoon
with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough is likely to extend
northeast across north central KS. A punch of dry air will wrap
south of the surface low into south central KS by early evening
while an intense upper jet streak moves into the area for the
evening as well. Low level winds up to 800 hPa will back in advance
of the intensifying sfc low by late afternoon, greatly intensifying
the low level helicity over eastern KS (and to a lesser extent
northern KS) by evening. Some model guidance indicates that outflow
boundaries from early day convection may play a role in the
afternoon convective evolution but this remains uncertain. If
outflow boundaries exist, they would certainly become a focus for
initiation and enhanced vorticity. Wherever storms develop during the
late afternoon and evening hours, the likely storm mode is discrete
to semi-discrete supercells with all hazards possible. The tornado
threat appears to be maximized in east central KS between 6 PM and
10 PM while still possible on either side of that window and to a
lesser extent in northern KS. Given the magnitude of low level
shear/SRH in conjunction with the strong deep shear, a few strong
tornadoes may be possible. Inhibition will increase by late evening
with a decreasing potential for surface based storms...and thus
decreasing tornado potential...although still non-zero through
midnight. Wind and hail potential will continue through the period
with any organized storms, and localized heavy rain/flash flooding
will also be possible but more dependent upon training as storms
should be progressive.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

By 06Z Friday widespread showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing. A strong low level jet will persist mainly across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Although the better
convergence on the the nose of the jet could push into MO during the
pre-dawn hours. By sunrise the sfc front should be located along or
just west of the KS turnpike. The ECMWF is still the fastest
solution with the progression and timing of the front. During this
timeframe the main trough and shortwave energy eject into the
central and southern plains supplying plenty of large scale lift. A
majority of the models still depict a decent amount of elevated
instability, and the deep layer shear increases to 50-60 kts
therefore storms in the morning could still be capable of producing
large hail.

By late morning instability ahead of the front increases
significantly, and soundings show a brief window for surface
convection by noon mainly across east central KS. As the main trough
passes over central KS thunderstorm coverage increases along the
front, and expect that given cape around 3000 j/kg and 50 kts of
deep layer shear there is a risk for severe. The severe threat will
quickly diminishes once the front leaves the area, which should exit
sometime in the early afternoon. If the ECMWF solution is correct
the front should clear our area by noon limiting the severe
convection. Behind the front weak instability across north central
KS will limited thunder, but expect an expansive area of rain
associated with the trough axis moves through far north central KS.
Most of the activity exits by 00Z Friday as strong northwest flow
advects cooler air into the region. By 12Z Saturday morning dew
points may be in the upper 20s. With a pressure gradient still
present mixing could prevent the temps from completely bottoming
out. Therefore have morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, and
the possibility of frost. Forecast still remains dry with northwest flow
aloft and temperatures rebounding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The next 12-14 hour period will be the first challenge with the
TAF period. A round of TS activity west of KMHK will likely impact
the terminal by early morning after 1 Oct 2Z. That threat area
shifts East to KTOP and KFOE by around 4Z time frame and after. After
the 17Z time frame a lull in activity should take place and then
very late in the TAF period, we should begin to see another
potential round of heavier activity begin to take shape but
timing on this is currently lower confidence, however, the
potential will exist.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KTOP 010021
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
721 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Broad long wave trough continues a slow progression east today as a
very strong short wave trough has surged into South Dakota and then
slowed today. Several weaker short wave troughs are moving through
the flow of the main system with influence as far east as north
central Kansas. One upstream wave evident in central CO will
influence the area tonight while a much stronger short wave and
attendant jet streak was evident in water vapor in central Utah back
into northern CA...and will impact the area on Wednesday. At the
surface, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continued much
of the day over north central KS. Here, a zone of weak low level
convergence has been in place, extending from a surface low on the
OK panhandle northeast and then arcing back to the central SD
surface low. Modest instability of 1000-1500 J/kg has developed just
west and southwest of this precip in central KS where there has been
more ample sunshine today.

Through Tonight:
Current shower and t-storm activity in northern KS will gradually
shift northeast and remain un-impressive. However, additional storms
are expected to continue to develop from north central KS back to
the SW amidst the modest instability. Effective shear of 40+ kts
will be sufficient for storm organization in areas with sufficient
instability. Mid level lapse rates are weak though, and it seems
that it will be rather difficult to get a strong updraft...the
exception being if supercell structure can develop. Also, as this
activity moves east through the evening and overnight, it will
encounter weakening instability even of the elevated variety. While
severe weather is thus unlikely overnight, the LLJ will focus over
the area with substantial 850 hPa moisture transport locally. After
4 AM, the LLJ will veer a bit and may become favorable for a slow
backbuilding situation in northeast KS and perhaps a training
situation prior to the backbuilding. This in combination with PW
values in the 80-90th percentile for this time of year suggests
heavy rain likely. Flash flood guidance is quite high (3-4" in 6
hours) so will not issue a flash flood watch at this time, but
certainly can not rule out a bit of flash flooding especially around
sunrise.

Wednesday - Wednesday Evening:
This period remains complicated. There is potential for severe
weather across the area but a bit of uncertainty in how severe it
will be and where the preferred locations will be. The current
thinking, subject to change, is this:

Morning thunderstorms, still potentially exhibiting some
backbuilding and heavy rain characteristics will continue but shift
east of the area by around noon as weak large-scale subsidence
overspreads the area in the wake of a short wave trough. Clouds may
or may not break up a bit, but the interesting thing is that it
seems that moderate instability of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE will develop
even if clouds don`t break up as the driving factor for increased
instability will be an influx of low level moisture (upper 60s
dewpoints). IF breaks in the clouds allow for more heating, the
severe threat seems likely to increase from an already elevated
state. A surface low will intensify over central KS by afternoon
with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough is likely to extend
northeast across north central KS. A punch of dry air will wrap
south of the surface low into south central KS by early evening
while an intense upper jet streak moves into the area for the
evening as well. Low level winds up to 800 hPa will back in advance
of the intensifying sfc low by late afternoon, greatly intensifying
the low level helicity over eastern KS (and to a lesser extent
northern KS) by evening. Some model guidance indicates that outflow
boundaries from early day convection may play a role in the
afternoon convective evolution but this remains uncertain. If
outflow boundaries exist, they would certainly become a focus for
initiation and enhanced vorticity. Wherever storms develop during the
late afternoon and evening hours, the likely storm mode is discrete
to semi-discrete supercells with all hazards possible. The tornado
threat appears to be maximized in east central KS between 6 PM and
10 PM while still possible on either side of that window and to a
lesser extent in northern KS. Given the magnitude of low level
shear/SRH in conjunction with the strong deep shear, a few strong
tornadoes may be possible. Inhibition will increase by late evening
with a decreasing potential for surface based storms...and thus
decreasing tornado potential...although still non-zero through
midnight. Wind and hail potential will continue through the period
with any organized storms, and localized heavy rain/flash flooding
will also be possible but more dependent upon training as storms
should be progressive.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

By 06Z Friday widespread showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing. A strong low level jet will persist mainly across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Although the better
convergence on the the nose of the jet could push into MO during the
pre-dawn hours. By sunrise the sfc front should be located along or
just west of the KS turnpike. The ECMWF is still the fastest
solution with the progression and timing of the front. During this
timeframe the main trough and shortwave energy eject into the
central and southern plains supplying plenty of large scale lift. A
majority of the models still depict a decent amount of elevated
instability, and the deep layer shear increases to 50-60 kts
therefore storms in the morning could still be capable of producing
large hail.

By late morning instability ahead of the front increases
significantly, and soundings show a brief window for surface
convection by noon mainly across east central KS. As the main trough
passes over central KS thunderstorm coverage increases along the
front, and expect that given cape around 3000 j/kg and 50 kts of
deep layer shear there is a risk for severe. The severe threat will
quickly diminishes once the front leaves the area, which should exit
sometime in the early afternoon. If the ECMWF solution is correct
the front should clear our area by noon limiting the severe
convection. Behind the front weak instability across north central
KS will limited thunder, but expect an expansive area of rain
associated with the trough axis moves through far north central KS.
Most of the activity exits by 00Z Friday as strong northwest flow
advects cooler air into the region. By 12Z Saturday morning dew
points may be in the upper 20s. With a pressure gradient still
present mixing could prevent the temps from completely bottoming
out. Therefore have morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, and
the possibility of frost. Forecast still remains dry with northwest flow
aloft and temperatures rebounding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The next 12-14 hour period will be the first challenge with the
TAF period. A round of TS activity west of KMHK will likely impact
the terminal by early morning after 1 Oct 2Z. That threat area
shifts East to KTOP and KFOE by around 4Z time frame and after. After
the 17Z time frame a lull in activity should take place and then
very late in the TAF period, we should begin to see another
potential round of heavier activity begin to take shape but
timing on this is currently lower confidence, however, the
potential will exist.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake







000
FXUS63 KICT 010012
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
712 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AT KSLN/KHUT...WITH
THREAT WANING AT KRSL WITH STORMS JUST TO THE EAST.  KICT A TOUGH
CALL...BUT LIKELY ON FRINGE OF THREAT THIS EVENING. TOUGH CALL ON
SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS ON HOW STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KCNU IN THE AFTERNOON...
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF KSLN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCATIONS POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH
GIVEN QUESTIONS ABOUT DRYLINE/FRONT LOCATION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  64  73 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      65  86  61  71 /  50  30  50  40
NEWTON          66  84  62  72 /  50  40  50  40
ELDORADO        66  86  63  74 /  50  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  86  65  75 /  40  50  50  30
RUSSELL         60  80  55  69 /  30  30  60  30
GREAT BEND      61  80  56  69 /  60  30  50  30
SALINA          64  84  60  70 /  70  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       65  84  61  71 /  60  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
CHANUTE         65  85  66  76 /  50  60  60  70
IOLA            65  85  66  75 /  50  60  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  66  77 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 010012
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
712 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AT KSLN/KHUT...WITH
THREAT WANING AT KRSL WITH STORMS JUST TO THE EAST.  KICT A TOUGH
CALL...BUT LIKELY ON FRINGE OF THREAT THIS EVENING. TOUGH CALL ON
SURFACE PATTERN ON WED...WITH MULTIPLE MODEL IDEAS ON HOW STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE BEST CHANCE IS FOR LINGERING
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KCNU IN THE AFTERNOON...
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF KSLN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCATIONS POSSIBLE...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH
GIVEN QUESTIONS ABOUT DRYLINE/FRONT LOCATION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  64  73 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      65  86  61  71 /  50  30  50  40
NEWTON          66  84  62  72 /  50  40  50  40
ELDORADO        66  86  63  74 /  50  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  86  65  75 /  40  50  50  30
RUSSELL         60  80  55  69 /  30  30  60  30
GREAT BEND      61  80  56  69 /  60  30  50  30
SALINA          64  84  60  70 /  70  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       65  84  61  71 /  60  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
CHANUTE         65  85  66  76 /  50  60  60  70
IOLA            65  85  66  75 /  50  60  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  66  77 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KGLD 302321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 302321
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
ONLY CAUSE FOR CONCERN IS SOME OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOG AROUND KMCK. MOST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT
FOG REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF TERMINAL BUT IT IS A LITTLE CLOSE FOR
COMFORT. PLACED A 6SM BR/SCT015 GROUP AS A HEDGE FOR NOW AND WILL
REFINE THIS GROUP AT THE 06Z RUN. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH PERIODS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 302300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. THE NAM SHOWS SOME LIFR
FOG TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND A FRONT TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  55  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  55  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  58  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  58  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  65  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 302300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. THE NAM SHOWS SOME LIFR
FOG TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND A FRONT TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  55  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  55  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  58  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  58  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  65  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 302300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. THE NAM SHOWS SOME LIFR
FOG TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND A FRONT TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  55  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  55  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  58  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  58  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  65  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 302300
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. THE NAM SHOWS SOME LIFR
FOG TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO OTHER
MODELS. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND A FRONT TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  55  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  55  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  58  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  58  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  65  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 302034
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Broad long wave trough continues a slow progression east today as a
very strong short wave trough has surged into South Dakota and then
slowed today. Several weaker short wave troughs are moving through
the flow of the main system with influence as far east as north
central Kansas. One upstream wave evident in central CO will
influence the area tonight while a much stronger short wave and
attendant jet streak was evident in water vapor in central Utah back
into northern CA...and will impact the area on Wednesday. At the
surface, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continued much
of the day over north central KS. Here, a zone of weak low level
convergence has been in place, extending from a surface low on the
OK panhandle northeast and then arcing back to the central SD
surface low. Modest instability of 1000-1500 J/kg has developed just
west and southwest of this precip in central KS where there has been
more ample sunshine today.

Through Tonight:
Current shower and t-storm activity in northern KS will gradually
shift northeast and remain un-impressive. However, additional storms
are expected to continue to develop from north central KS back to
the SW amidst the modest instability. Effective shear of 40+ kts
will be sufficient for storm organization in areas with sufficient
instability. Mid level lapse rates are weak though, and it seems
that it will be rather difficult to get a strong updraft...the
exception being if supercell structure can develop. Also, as this
activity moves east through the evening and overnight, it will
encounter weakening instability even of the elevated variety. While
severe weather is thus unlikely overnight, the LLJ will focus over
the area with substantial 850 hPa moisture transport locally. After
4 AM, the LLJ will veer a bit and may become favorable for a slow
backbuilding situation in northeast KS and perhaps a training
situation prior to the backbuilding. This in combination with PW
values in the 80-90th percentile for this time of year suggests
heavy rain likely. Flash flood guidance is quite high (3-4" in 6
hours) so will not issue a flash flood watch at this time, but
certainly can not rule out a bit of flash flooding especially around
sunrise.

Wednesday - Wednesday Evening:
This period remains complicated. There is potential for severe
weather across the area but a bit of uncertainty in how severe it
will be and where the preferred locations will be. The current
thinking, subject to change, is this:

Morning thunderstorms, still potentially exhibiting some
backbuilding and heavy rain characteristics will continue but shift
east of the area by around noon as weak large-scale subsidence
overspreads the area in the wake of a short wave trough. Clouds may
or may not break up a bit, but the interesting thing is that it
seems that moderate instability of 1500+ J/kg of CAPE will develop
even if clouds don`t break up as the driving factor for increased
instability will be an influx of low level moisture (upper 60s
dewpoints). IF breaks in the clouds allow for more heating, the
severe threat seems likely to increase from an already elevated
state. A surface low will intensify over central KS by afternoon
with a synoptic warm front/inverted trough is likely to extend
northeast across north central KS. A punch of dry air will wrap
south of the surface low into south central KS by early evening
while an intense upper jet streak moves into the area for the
evening as well. Low level winds up to 800 hPa will back in advance
of the intensifying sfc low by late afternoon, greatly intensifying
the low level helicity over eastern KS (and to a lesser extent
northern KS) by evening. Some model guidance indicates that outflow
boundaries from early day convection may play a role in the
afternoon convective evolution but this remains uncertain. If
outflow boundaries exist, they would certainly become a focus for
initiation and enhanced vorticity. Wherever storms develop during the
late afternoon and evening hours, the likely storm mode is discrete
to semi-discrete supercells with all hazards possible. The tornado
threat appears to be maximized in east central KS between 6 PM and
10 PM while still possible on either side of that window and to a
lesser extent in northern KS. Given the magnitude of low level
shear/SRH in conjunction with the strong deep shear, a few strong
tornadoes may be possible. Inhibition will increase by late evening
with a decreasing potential for surface based storms...and thus
decreasing tornado potential...although still non-zero through
midnight. Wind and hail potential will continue through the period
with any organized storms, and localized heavy rain/flash flooding
will also be possible but more dependent upon training as storms
should be progressive.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

By 06Z Friday widespread showers and thunderstorms should be
ongoing. A strong low level jet will persist mainly across the
southeastern half of the forecast area. Although the better
convergence on the the nose of the jet could push into MO during the
pre-dawn hours. By sunrise the sfc front should be located along or
just west of the KS turnpike. The ECMWF is still the fastest
solution with the progression and timing of the front. During this
timeframe the main trough and shortwave energy eject into the
central and southern plains supplying plenty of large scale lift. A
majority of the models still depict a decent amount of elevated
instability, and the deep layer shear increases to 50-60 kts
therefore storms in the morning could still be capable of producing
large hail.

By late morning instability ahead of the front increases
significantly, and soundings show a brief window for surface
convection by noon mainly across east central KS. As the main trough
passes over central KS thunderstorm coverage increases along the
front, and expect that given cape around 3000 j/kg and 50 kts of
deep layer shear there is a risk for severe. The severe threat will
quickly diminishes once the front leaves the area, which should exit
sometime in the early afternoon. If the ECMWF solution is correct
the front should clear our area by noon limiting the severe
convection. Behind the front weak instability across north central
KS will limited thunder, but expect an expansive area of rain
associated with the trough axis moves through far north central KS.
Most of the activity exits by 00Z Friday as strong northwest flow
advects cooler air into the region. By 12Z Saturday morning dew
points may be in the upper 20s. With a pressure gradient still
present mixing could prevent the temps from completely bottoming
out. Therefore have morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s, and
the possibility of frost. Forecast still remains dry with northwest flow
aloft and temperatures rebounding early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Main issue through the period will be timing and intensity of
TS. Area of storms west of MHK should stay west in the short
term. May see additional development near MHK through the rest of
the afternoon. Any TS would have VFR cigs with short periods of
lower VIS. While there is a chance of TS through the evening, most
likely timing of TS with more persistent IFR VIS and occasional
lower CIGS is expected after 05Z (MHK) and 09Z (TOP/FOE) with
+TSRA possible. These storms should exit the area between 15Z-18Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KGLD 301936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301936
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
136 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS WITH CLOSED CENTER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO AND COULD BE IN LINE TO IMPACT OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM JUST EAST OF KMCK SOUTH
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALON THE CO/KS STATE LINE.

WITH FRONT STILL OVER PAR OF THE CWA I CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA
WHERE ML CAPE 500-1500 J/KG IS LINGERING. SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED
ANY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SO FAR...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY THREAT
REMAINING EAST AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED BY NAM TO PASS OVER CWA TONIGHT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULDNT AMOUNT TO MUCH CONSIDERING LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS...SO
DECIDED TO JUST KEEP MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE 06-12Z
PERIOD. NAM/RAP/SREF HINTING AT STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
CWA WITH MOISTURE POOLING NEAR FRONTAL ZONE. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
IN THIS AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND COULD LIMIT
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING FRONT FURTHER EAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH MOST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO BE AS FORCING
INCREASES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I
LIMITED 30-40 POPS TO THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWEST. I KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING BEHIND FRONTAL
ZONE...THOUGH I WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL MAIN
PUSH COMES IN LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...AS A RESULT THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH AS WELL. AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA WILL ALMOST ALL BE ELEVATED WITH ONLY A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK SBCAPE IN THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DIMINISHES...POSSIBLY LINGERING IN EASTERN
AREAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LARGE RIDGE WHICH WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A BRIEF
COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KICT 301934
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  64  73 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      65  86  61  71 /  50  30  50  40
NEWTON          66  84  62  72 /  60  40  50  40
ELDORADO        66  86  63  74 /  50  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  86  65  75 /  40  50  50  30
RUSSELL         60  80  55  69 /  40  30  60  30
GREAT BEND      61  80  56  69 /  40  30  50  30
SALINA          64  84  60  70 /  60  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       65  84  61  71 /  60  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
CHANUTE         65  85  66  76 /  50  60  60  70
IOLA            65  85  66  75 /  50  60  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  66  77 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301934
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  64  73 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      65  86  61  71 /  50  30  50  40
NEWTON          66  84  62  72 /  60  40  50  40
ELDORADO        66  86  63  74 /  50  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  86  65  75 /  40  50  50  30
RUSSELL         60  80  55  69 /  40  30  60  30
GREAT BEND      61  80  56  69 /  40  30  50  30
SALINA          64  84  60  70 /  60  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       65  84  61  71 /  60  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
CHANUTE         65  85  66  76 /  50  60  60  70
IOLA            65  85  66  75 /  50  60  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  66  77 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301934
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  64  73 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      65  86  61  71 /  50  30  50  40
NEWTON          66  84  62  72 /  60  40  50  40
ELDORADO        66  86  63  74 /  50  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  86  65  75 /  40  50  50  30
RUSSELL         60  80  55  69 /  40  30  60  30
GREAT BEND      61  80  56  69 /  40  30  50  30
SALINA          64  84  60  70 /  60  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       65  84  61  71 /  60  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
CHANUTE         65  85  66  76 /  50  60  60  70
IOLA            65  85  66  75 /  50  60  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  66  77 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301934
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

NEXT PV ANOMALY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS APPROACHING WAVE WILL HELP INDUCE A 40
KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOW-MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN KS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGER
FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN DECENT INSOLATION CAN DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS BY MID-LATE PM WHERE BEST
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE MATERIALIZING. SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO SUPPORTS
SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS SHOULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE COLD FRONTAL
TIMING AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS
MAY INITIATE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS THURSDAY BEFORE FORMING INTO A
SQUALL LINE AND MOVING EAST INTO MISSOURI BY EVENING.

COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND A
SECONDARY...STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE KANSAS REGION IN A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO MODIFY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  87  64  73 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      65  86  61  71 /  50  30  50  40
NEWTON          66  84  62  72 /  60  40  50  40
ELDORADO        66  86  63  74 /  50  50  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  86  65  75 /  40  50  50  30
RUSSELL         60  80  55  69 /  40  30  60  30
GREAT BEND      61  80  56  69 /  40  30  50  30
SALINA          64  84  60  70 /  60  50  60  40
MCPHERSON       65  84  61  71 /  60  40  50  40
COFFEYVILLE     66  86  67  77 /  40  50  60  70
CHANUTE         65  85  66  76 /  50  60  60  70
IOLA            65  85  66  75 /  50  60  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    66  86  66  77 /  40  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 301906
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  54  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  51  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  53  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  57  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  62  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301906
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  54  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  51  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  53  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  57  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  62  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301906
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  54  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  51  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  53  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  57  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  62  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301906
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
206 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING EASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, A GOOD
LOBE OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL DRAG THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUR NORTH AREAS NORTH OF I-70, AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS SUCH AS NEAR SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY, WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 50 PERCENT
RANGE, WHILE 25 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
MIDNIGHT OR SO.  QPF WILL NOT BE TOO HIGH, EXCEPT IN A FEW
STRONGER STORMS, DUE TO THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE
CONVECTION.  THE CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL DECREASE TO THE EAST TO NEAR ZERO BY 20Z
OR MID DAY THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED NEARLY
THROUGH ALL OF OUR AREA BY THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, BUT PLENTY
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE GOING FORECAST
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF MID 60S IN HAYS TO LOWER 70S IN
MEDICINE LODGE SEEM APPROPRIATE. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT, AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET THURSDAY NIGHT IS A GOOD QUESTION.  WITH FRESHLY
WET GROUND AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S RANGE ALONG OUR
NORTHWEST BOUNDARY SUCH AS WAKEENEY, SCOTT CITY AND SYRACUSE, AND
TO NEAR THE 50F DEGREE MARK IN THE COLDWATER AND MEDICINE LODGE
AREAS.  NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN BEYOND THURSDAY AT 20Z, AS
THE UPPER FLOW WILL GO STRONGLY NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND BE CLOSE TO AS HIGHS WERE ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALOFT, THE PERIOD SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GO THROUGH A MILD WARMING TREND, REACHING THE
LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS PERIOD, AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  54  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  51  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  53  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  57  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  62  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301823
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, THE SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED NEAR AND ALONG
THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F). ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORM INITIATION MAY BE AFFECTED DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
MUCAPE VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT, LOOK FOR LOWS ONCE AGAIN DOWN INTO THE 60S(F). HOWEVER,
THE MID TO UPPER 50S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO THAT AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
THE NAM/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE 20C ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE UPPER TEENS(C) TO NEAR 20C ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S(F) ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  80  54  70 /  30  20  30  20
GCK  55  78  51  69 /  10  20  50  20
EHA  55  78  50  69 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  58  80  53  71 /  10  10  20  20
HYS  58  78  53  67 /  30  30  50  30
P28  65  87  60  73 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KTOP 301749
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1249 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The upper low was located over the Nebraska Panhandle and moving
northward at 08Z. Trailing lobe of energy extended southeast into
northwest Kansas. Another embedded wave was moving across Colorado
at 08Z.

Scattered thunderstorms had developed in southwest Kansas within the
low level jet and theta-e axis. The moisture and instability axis
extends northeast into north Central Kansas.

Expect scattered thunderstorms to affect parts of north central
Kansas this morning into parts of northeast Kansas as trailing wave
pivots northeast across the area as the upper low lifts north into
the Dakotas. This afternoon may see an initial lull in convection
with subsidence the wake of the initial wave before increasing
toward late afternoon and evening. Models suggest that around 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE will be present along with 35 kts of bulk shear.
However mid level lapse rates are marginal. May see a few strong to
severe storms late afternoon through mid evening with mainly hail
and wind the main hazards.

Expect convection to be on the increase tonight as the low level jet
increases across the Central Plains with deep moisture advection
across northeast Kansas. Another wave ejects out of the longwave
trough across Kansas increasing forcing for ascent. Given good
moisture transport tonight along with diffluent upper flow over
eastern Kansas after 06Z, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to be widespread and have
maintained highest probabilities from late evening onward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area early
Weds as another upper wave passes across the region late Tues
night into early Weds. 40KT LLJ along with WAA and moisture
advection should lead to widespread convection at least into mid
morning. By afternoon would expect some clearing and instability
to increase across Central KS closer to the low level dry surge.
The sfc low should remain nearly stationary across SW KS as the
main upper wave digs into the Rockies by Weds evening. This will
act to back the low level wind fields and help re-focus
convergence along any outflow boundaries/warm front which should
be located somewhere across the CWA. 6KM shear of 40-50kts along
with 1500-2500 MLCAPE and increasing directional shear by sunset
should set the stage for severe storms capable of hail...damaging
winds and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast 3KM direction shear.

ECMWF and GFS both suggest that storms will evolve into a cluster
with some training possible given the orientation of the 50kt
LLJ across the 850mb moisture axis Weds night. This could lead to
locally excessive rains of 2+ inches and perhaps some minor
flooding across the CWA.

By Thursday the upper trough axis will gradually shift east with
lingering showers and storms likely at least through midday before
the cold front passes through by afternoon. At this time it
appears that the front should pass through most of the CWA before
peak heating however if the front slows some parts of eastern KS
could see another round of storms Thurs PM.

Thankfully the weather will transition to a cooler and drier
pattern by the weekend and into next week as a ridge builds over
the Rockies and a trough remains in place across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Main issue through the period will be timing and intensity of
TS. Area of storms west of MHK should stay west in the short
term. May see additional development near MHK through the rest of
the afternoon. Any TS would have VFR cigs with short periods of
lower VIS. While there is a chance of TS through the evening, most
likely timing of TS with more persistent IFR VIS and occasional
lower CIGS is expected after 05Z (MHK) and 09Z (TOP/FOE) with
+TSRA possible. These storms should exit the area between 15Z-18Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Barjenbruch







000
FXUS63 KTOP 301749
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1249 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The upper low was located over the Nebraska Panhandle and moving
northward at 08Z. Trailing lobe of energy extended southeast into
northwest Kansas. Another embedded wave was moving across Colorado
at 08Z.

Scattered thunderstorms had developed in southwest Kansas within the
low level jet and theta-e axis. The moisture and instability axis
extends northeast into north Central Kansas.

Expect scattered thunderstorms to affect parts of north central
Kansas this morning into parts of northeast Kansas as trailing wave
pivots northeast across the area as the upper low lifts north into
the Dakotas. This afternoon may see an initial lull in convection
with subsidence the wake of the initial wave before increasing
toward late afternoon and evening. Models suggest that around 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE will be present along with 35 kts of bulk shear.
However mid level lapse rates are marginal. May see a few strong to
severe storms late afternoon through mid evening with mainly hail
and wind the main hazards.

Expect convection to be on the increase tonight as the low level jet
increases across the Central Plains with deep moisture advection
across northeast Kansas. Another wave ejects out of the longwave
trough across Kansas increasing forcing for ascent. Given good
moisture transport tonight along with diffluent upper flow over
eastern Kansas after 06Z, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to be widespread and have
maintained highest probabilities from late evening onward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area early
Weds as another upper wave passes across the region late Tues
night into early Weds. 40KT LLJ along with WAA and moisture
advection should lead to widespread convection at least into mid
morning. By afternoon would expect some clearing and instability
to increase across Central KS closer to the low level dry surge.
The sfc low should remain nearly stationary across SW KS as the
main upper wave digs into the Rockies by Weds evening. This will
act to back the low level wind fields and help re-focus
convergence along any outflow boundaries/warm front which should
be located somewhere across the CWA. 6KM shear of 40-50kts along
with 1500-2500 MLCAPE and increasing directional shear by sunset
should set the stage for severe storms capable of hail...damaging
winds and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast 3KM direction shear.

ECMWF and GFS both suggest that storms will evolve into a cluster
with some training possible given the orientation of the 50kt
LLJ across the 850mb moisture axis Weds night. This could lead to
locally excessive rains of 2+ inches and perhaps some minor
flooding across the CWA.

By Thursday the upper trough axis will gradually shift east with
lingering showers and storms likely at least through midday before
the cold front passes through by afternoon. At this time it
appears that the front should pass through most of the CWA before
peak heating however if the front slows some parts of eastern KS
could see another round of storms Thurs PM.

Thankfully the weather will transition to a cooler and drier
pattern by the weekend and into next week as a ridge builds over
the Rockies and a trough remains in place across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Main issue through the period will be timing and intensity of
TS. Area of storms west of MHK should stay west in the short
term. May see additional development near MHK through the rest of
the afternoon. Any TS would have VFR cigs with short periods of
lower VIS. While there is a chance of TS through the evening, most
likely timing of TS with more persistent IFR VIS and occasional
lower CIGS is expected after 05Z (MHK) and 09Z (TOP/FOE) with
+TSRA possible. These storms should exit the area between 15Z-18Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






000
FXUS63 KICT 301737
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
310-315K LAYER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO HELP BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  87  64 /  20  50  30  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  86  61 /  40  50  30  50
NEWTON          83  65  84  62 /  30  60  40  50
ELDORADO        84  65  86  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  86  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         79  59  80  55 /  60  40  30  50
GREAT BEND      80  60  80  56 /  60  40  30  40
SALINA          80  63  84  60 /  60  50  40  60
MCPHERSON       81  64  84  61 /  50  60  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  65  86  67 /  10  40  50  60
CHANUTE         85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
IOLA            85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  65  86  66 /  10  40  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KICT 301737
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
310-315K LAYER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO HELP BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  87  64 /  20  50  30  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  86  61 /  40  50  30  50
NEWTON          83  65  84  62 /  30  60  40  50
ELDORADO        84  65  86  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  86  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         79  59  80  55 /  60  40  30  50
GREAT BEND      80  60  80  56 /  60  40  30  40
SALINA          80  63  84  60 /  60  50  40  60
MCPHERSON       81  64  84  61 /  50  60  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  65  86  67 /  10  40  50  60
CHANUTE         85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
IOLA            85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  65  86  66 /  10  40  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KGLD 301730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301730
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGLD. LESS CONFIDENCE
IN CIG/VIS FORECAST AT KMCK WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING IFR OR
LESS JUST WEST OF FRONTAL ZONE IN SOUTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON THIS FRONT POSITION AND INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD HELP LIMIT ANY LOWER CIGS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES AT THIS UPDATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA 06-12Z PERIOD AT KMCK
THOUGH COVERAGE IS A QUESTION SO LEFT OUT. OTHER THAN BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT KMCK WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL, BUT STRONG +90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH
NEAR 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  40  30  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  40  30  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL, BUT STRONG +90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH
NEAR 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EDGES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  40  30  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  40  30  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KICT 301537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      83  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          83  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        84  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         80  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  60  40  40  40
SALINA          81  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      83  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          83  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        84  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         80  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  60  40  40  40
SALINA          81  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      83  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          83  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        84  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         80  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  60  40  40  40
SALINA          81  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      83  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          83  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        84  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         80  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  60  40  40  40
SALINA          81  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 301433
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
933 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL, BUT STRONG +90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH
NEAR 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH
13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  40  30  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  40  30  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 301433
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
933 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SMALL, BUT STRONG +90KT UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER. A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) WITH
NEAR 60F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH
13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  40  30  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  30  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  40  30  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KICT 301150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  50  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  50  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  50  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 301150
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  50  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDDC 301140
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH
13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  40  20  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 301140
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HYS TERMINAL THROUGH
13Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  40  20  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  40  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KTOP 301126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The upper low was located over the Nebraska Panhandle and moving
northward at 08Z. Trailing lobe of energy extended southeast into
northwest Kansas. Another embedded wave was moving across Colorado
at 08Z.

Scattered thunderstorms had developed in southwest Kansas within the
low level jet and theta-e axis. The moisture and instability axis
extends northeast into north Central Kansas.

Expect scattered thunderstorms to affect parts of north central
Kansas this morning into parts of northeast Kansas as trailing wave
pivots northeast across the area as the upper low lifts north into
the Dakotas. This afternoon may see an initial lull in convection
with subsidence the wake of the initial wave before increasing
toward late afternoon and evening. Models suggest that around 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE will be present along with 35 kts of bulk shear.
However mid level lapse rates are marginal. May see a few strong to
severe storms late afternoon through mid evening with mainly hail
and wind the main hazards.

Expect convection to be on the increase tonight as the low level jet
increases across the Central Plains with deep moisture advection
across northeast Kansas. Another wave ejects out of the longwave
trough across Kansas increasing forcing for ascent. Given good
moisture transport tonight along with diffluent upper flow over
eastern Kansas after 06Z, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to be widespread and have
maintained highest probabilities from late evening onward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area early
Weds as another upper wave passes across the region late Tues
night into early Weds. 40KT LLJ along with WAA and moisture
advection should lead to widespread convection at least into mid
morning. By afternoon would expect some clearing and instability
to increase across Central KS closer to the low level dry surge.
The sfc low should remain nearly stationary across SW KS as the
main upper wave digs into the Rockies by Weds evening. This will
act to back the low level wind fields and help re-focus
convergence along any outflow boundaries/warm front which should
be located somewhere across the CWA. 6KM shear of 40-50kts along
with 1500-2500 MLCAPE and increasing directional shear by sunset
should set the stage for severe storms capable of hail...damaging
winds and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast 3KM direction shear.

ECMWF and GFS both suggest that storms will evolve into a cluster
with some training possible given the orientation of the 50kt
LLJ across the 850mb moisture axis Weds night. This could lead to
locally excessive rains of 2+ inches and perhaps some minor
flooding across the CWA.

By Thursday the upper trough axis will gradually shift east with
lingering showers and storms likely at least through midday before
the cold front passes through by afternoon. At this time it
appears that the front should pass through most of the CWA before
peak heating however if the front slows some parts of eastern KS
could see another round of storms Thurs PM.

Thankfully the weather will transition to a cooler and drier
pattern by the weekend and into next week as a ridge builds over
the Rockies and a trough remains in place across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected outside of any convective activity
through 00Z. Will keep TOP and FOE dry through 00Z, but MHK have
VCTS after 15Z. Chances for TSRA to affect the terminals will
increase after 00Z with MVFR vsbys developing after 06Z within
convection. Winds will increase from the south to around 10 kts
with gusts to 22kts after 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...53







000
FXUS63 KTOP 301126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The upper low was located over the Nebraska Panhandle and moving
northward at 08Z. Trailing lobe of energy extended southeast into
northwest Kansas. Another embedded wave was moving across Colorado
at 08Z.

Scattered thunderstorms had developed in southwest Kansas within the
low level jet and theta-e axis. The moisture and instability axis
extends northeast into north Central Kansas.

Expect scattered thunderstorms to affect parts of north central
Kansas this morning into parts of northeast Kansas as trailing wave
pivots northeast across the area as the upper low lifts north into
the Dakotas. This afternoon may see an initial lull in convection
with subsidence the wake of the initial wave before increasing
toward late afternoon and evening. Models suggest that around 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE will be present along with 35 kts of bulk shear.
However mid level lapse rates are marginal. May see a few strong to
severe storms late afternoon through mid evening with mainly hail
and wind the main hazards.

Expect convection to be on the increase tonight as the low level jet
increases across the Central Plains with deep moisture advection
across northeast Kansas. Another wave ejects out of the longwave
trough across Kansas increasing forcing for ascent. Given good
moisture transport tonight along with diffluent upper flow over
eastern Kansas after 06Z, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to be widespread and have
maintained highest probabilities from late evening onward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area early
Weds as another upper wave passes across the region late Tues
night into early Weds. 40KT LLJ along with WAA and moisture
advection should lead to widespread convection at least into mid
morning. By afternoon would expect some clearing and instability
to increase across Central KS closer to the low level dry surge.
The sfc low should remain nearly stationary across SW KS as the
main upper wave digs into the Rockies by Weds evening. This will
act to back the low level wind fields and help re-focus
convergence along any outflow boundaries/warm front which should
be located somewhere across the CWA. 6KM shear of 40-50kts along
with 1500-2500 MLCAPE and increasing directional shear by sunset
should set the stage for severe storms capable of hail...damaging
winds and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast 3KM direction shear.

ECMWF and GFS both suggest that storms will evolve into a cluster
with some training possible given the orientation of the 50kt
LLJ across the 850mb moisture axis Weds night. This could lead to
locally excessive rains of 2+ inches and perhaps some minor
flooding across the CWA.

By Thursday the upper trough axis will gradually shift east with
lingering showers and storms likely at least through midday before
the cold front passes through by afternoon. At this time it
appears that the front should pass through most of the CWA before
peak heating however if the front slows some parts of eastern KS
could see another round of storms Thurs PM.

Thankfully the weather will transition to a cooler and drier
pattern by the weekend and into next week as a ridge builds over
the Rockies and a trough remains in place across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VFR conditions are expected outside of any convective activity
through 00Z. Will keep TOP and FOE dry through 00Z, but MHK have
VCTS after 15Z. Chances for TSRA to affect the terminals will
increase after 00Z with MVFR vsbys developing after 06Z within
convection. Winds will increase from the south to around 10 kts
with gusts to 22kts after 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...53






000
FXUS63 KGLD 301124
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A FEW PASSING VFR CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE TRI STATE AREA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY FOR KGLD. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER TO MOVE
BACK OVER THE TAF SITE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
LEADING TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PASSING CLOUDS WILL ALSO EXIT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TODAY FOR
KMCK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HINT OF GUSTY WINDS FOR
KMCK DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COMPARED TO MORE CALM
CONDITIONS IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...SO PLACED A MENTION OF 20 KT
GUSTS. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301124
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A FEW PASSING VFR CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE TRI STATE AREA THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY FOR KGLD. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING SOME CLOUD COVER TO MOVE
BACK OVER THE TAF SITE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
LEADING TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PASSING CLOUDS WILL ALSO EXIT SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TODAY FOR
KMCK. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HINT OF GUSTY WINDS FOR
KMCK DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS COMPARED TO MORE CALM
CONDITIONS IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...SO PLACED A MENTION OF 20 KT
GUSTS. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KGLD 301006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 301006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY WITH
THE SECONDARY CONCERN OF WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE CONTINUING
SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE FLOW HAS AMPLIFIED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE PACIFIC. STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TOWARD THE NORTH.
NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...CANADIAN AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT. HOWEVER...MODELS WERE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE SREF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL MINOR CONCERN WILL BE ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD INDICATE
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY. BUT CONSIDERING THE LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT...WILL
KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID MORNING.

WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STARTS AFFECTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AT 06Z. A MUCH STRONGER LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT STARTS AFFECTING THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TO
AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH THE JET AND DECENT PV ANOMALY.
ALSO THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT EXPECT A DECENT
RESPONSE FROM THE LIFT. MOISTURE MAY BE A QUESTION...HOWEVER THE
LIFT IS DEFINITELY THERE. HAVE PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED LEFT FRONT QUADRANT
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A STRONGER INFLUENCE AS THE
DAY GOES ON. THROUGH THE MORNING THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID LEVEL
LIFT ALONG WITH A DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE DRY.

COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME IT LOOKS
LIKE ONE FRONT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION ANOTHER COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR COMES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SO INITIALLY AREA IS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE POST FRONTAL REGIME. THE
MAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS NEAR THE FRONT/SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA.

THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ABOVE WHERE THE FRONT IS BUT THE
EML IS NOT THAT STRONG. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FRONT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS CAUSES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH OF THE FRONT THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
GREAT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT THE QPF.
CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND A JET OVERHEAD WILL
BLANKET THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PORTION CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND ALSO OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCOMING FRONT.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE NIGHT.
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT
AS A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET ENHANCES THE LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK AS CLEAR CUT/ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAYS MODEL OUTPUT. KEPT THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS BUT COULD
SEE WHERE THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH HIGHER. GEFS
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD.

IN REGARDS TO THE NEW FRONT...PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THREE HOUR
RISES OF 5 TO 9 MB LOOKS TO CREATE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 60S. FOR THE NIGHT THERE LOOKS
TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CHILLY WITH UPPER 30S EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KTOP 300847
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The upper low was located over the Nebraska Panhandle and moving
northward at 08Z. Trailing lobe of energy extended southeast into
northwest Kansas. Another embedded wave was moving across Colorado
at 08Z.

Scattered thunderstorms had developed in southwest Kansas within the
low level jet and theta-e axis. The moisture and instability axis
extends northeast into north Central Kansas.

Expect scattered thunderstorms to affect parts of north central
Kansas this morning into parts of northeast Kansas as trailing wave
pivots northeast across the area as the upper low lifts north into
the Dakotas. This afternoon may see an initial lull in convection
with subsidence the wake of the initial wave before increasing
toward late afternoon and evening. Models suggest that around 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE will be present along with 35 kts of bulk shear.
However mid level lapse rates are marginal. May see a few strong to
severe storms late afternoon through mid evening with mainly hail
and wind the main hazards.

Expect convection to be on the increase tonight as the low level jet
increases across the Central Plains with deep moisture advection
across northeast Kansas. Another wave ejects out of the longwave
trough across Kansas increasing forcing for ascent. Given good
moisture transport tonight along with diffluent upper flow over
eastern Kansas after 06Z, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to be widespread and have
maintained highest probabilities from late evening onward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area early
Weds as another upper wave passes across the region late Tues
night into early Weds. 40KT LLJ along with WAA and moisture
advection should lead to widespread convection at least into mid
morning. By afternoon would expect some clearing and instability
to increase across Central KS closer to the low level dry surge.
The sfc low should remain nearly stationary across SW KS as the
main upper wave digs into the Rockies by Weds evening. This will
act to back the low level wind fields and help re-focus
convergence along any outflow boundaries/warm front which should
be located somewhere across the CWA. 6KM shear of 40-50kts along
with 1500-2500 MLCAPE and increasing directional shear by sunset
should set the stage for severe storms capable of hail...damaging
winds and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast 3KM direction shear.

ECMWF and GFS both suggest that storms will evolve into a cluster
with some training possible given the orientation of the 50kt
LLJ across the 850mb moisture axis Weds night. This could lead to
locally excessive rains of 2+ inches and perhaps some minor
flooding across the CWA.

By Thursday the upper trough axis will gradually shift east with
lingering showers and storms likely at least through midday before
the cold front passes through by afternoon. At this time it
appears that the front should pass through most of the CWA before
peak heating however if the front slows some parts of eastern KS
could see another round of storms Thurs PM.

Thankfully the weather will transition to a cooler and drier
pattern by the weekend and into next week as a ridge builds over
the Rockies and a trough remains in place across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Will keep the terminal forecasts dry and VFR through 14z with
showers then possible in the KMHK vcnty beyond 15Z as the
ejecting high plains trough lifts primarily north of the area.
Will not introduce vcts in the KTOP/KFOE terminals until 00z...but
still remain vfr aoa 5 kft at all sites through the 06Z/01.
South to southeast winds will remain generally under 10 kts except
between 14z and 00z when sustained speeds of 11-13kt with gusts
near 20 kts will be common.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 300847
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The upper low was located over the Nebraska Panhandle and moving
northward at 08Z. Trailing lobe of energy extended southeast into
northwest Kansas. Another embedded wave was moving across Colorado
at 08Z.

Scattered thunderstorms had developed in southwest Kansas within the
low level jet and theta-e axis. The moisture and instability axis
extends northeast into north Central Kansas.

Expect scattered thunderstorms to affect parts of north central
Kansas this morning into parts of northeast Kansas as trailing wave
pivots northeast across the area as the upper low lifts north into
the Dakotas. This afternoon may see an initial lull in convection
with subsidence the wake of the initial wave before increasing
toward late afternoon and evening. Models suggest that around 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE will be present along with 35 kts of bulk shear.
However mid level lapse rates are marginal. May see a few strong to
severe storms late afternoon through mid evening with mainly hail
and wind the main hazards.

Expect convection to be on the increase tonight as the low level jet
increases across the Central Plains with deep moisture advection
across northeast Kansas. Another wave ejects out of the longwave
trough across Kansas increasing forcing for ascent. Given good
moisture transport tonight along with diffluent upper flow over
eastern Kansas after 06Z, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to be widespread and have
maintained highest probabilities from late evening onward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area early
Weds as another upper wave passes across the region late Tues
night into early Weds. 40KT LLJ along with WAA and moisture
advection should lead to widespread convection at least into mid
morning. By afternoon would expect some clearing and instability
to increase across Central KS closer to the low level dry surge.
The sfc low should remain nearly stationary across SW KS as the
main upper wave digs into the Rockies by Weds evening. This will
act to back the low level wind fields and help re-focus
convergence along any outflow boundaries/warm front which should
be located somewhere across the CWA. 6KM shear of 40-50kts along
with 1500-2500 MLCAPE and increasing directional shear by sunset
should set the stage for severe storms capable of hail...damaging
winds and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast 3KM direction shear.

ECMWF and GFS both suggest that storms will evolve into a cluster
with some training possible given the orientation of the 50kt
LLJ across the 850mb moisture axis Weds night. This could lead to
locally excessive rains of 2+ inches and perhaps some minor
flooding across the CWA.

By Thursday the upper trough axis will gradually shift east with
lingering showers and storms likely at least through midday before
the cold front passes through by afternoon. At this time it
appears that the front should pass through most of the CWA before
peak heating however if the front slows some parts of eastern KS
could see another round of storms Thurs PM.

Thankfully the weather will transition to a cooler and drier
pattern by the weekend and into next week as a ridge builds over
the Rockies and a trough remains in place across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Will keep the terminal forecasts dry and VFR through 14z with
showers then possible in the KMHK vcnty beyond 15Z as the
ejecting high plains trough lifts primarily north of the area.
Will not introduce vcts in the KTOP/KFOE terminals until 00z...but
still remain vfr aoa 5 kft at all sites through the 06Z/01.
South to southeast winds will remain generally under 10 kts except
between 14z and 00z when sustained speeds of 11-13kt with gusts
near 20 kts will be common.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 300847
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The upper low was located over the Nebraska Panhandle and moving
northward at 08Z. Trailing lobe of energy extended southeast into
northwest Kansas. Another embedded wave was moving across Colorado
at 08Z.

Scattered thunderstorms had developed in southwest Kansas within the
low level jet and theta-e axis. The moisture and instability axis
extends northeast into north Central Kansas.

Expect scattered thunderstorms to affect parts of north central
Kansas this morning into parts of northeast Kansas as trailing wave
pivots northeast across the area as the upper low lifts north into
the Dakotas. This afternoon may see an initial lull in convection
with subsidence the wake of the initial wave before increasing
toward late afternoon and evening. Models suggest that around 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE will be present along with 35 kts of bulk shear.
However mid level lapse rates are marginal. May see a few strong to
severe storms late afternoon through mid evening with mainly hail
and wind the main hazards.

Expect convection to be on the increase tonight as the low level jet
increases across the Central Plains with deep moisture advection
across northeast Kansas. Another wave ejects out of the longwave
trough across Kansas increasing forcing for ascent. Given good
moisture transport tonight along with diffluent upper flow over
eastern Kansas after 06Z, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to be widespread and have
maintained highest probabilities from late evening onward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area early
Weds as another upper wave passes across the region late Tues
night into early Weds. 40KT LLJ along with WAA and moisture
advection should lead to widespread convection at least into mid
morning. By afternoon would expect some clearing and instability
to increase across Central KS closer to the low level dry surge.
The sfc low should remain nearly stationary across SW KS as the
main upper wave digs into the Rockies by Weds evening. This will
act to back the low level wind fields and help re-focus
convergence along any outflow boundaries/warm front which should
be located somewhere across the CWA. 6KM shear of 40-50kts along
with 1500-2500 MLCAPE and increasing directional shear by sunset
should set the stage for severe storms capable of hail...damaging
winds and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast 3KM direction shear.

ECMWF and GFS both suggest that storms will evolve into a cluster
with some training possible given the orientation of the 50kt
LLJ across the 850mb moisture axis Weds night. This could lead to
locally excessive rains of 2+ inches and perhaps some minor
flooding across the CWA.

By Thursday the upper trough axis will gradually shift east with
lingering showers and storms likely at least through midday before
the cold front passes through by afternoon. At this time it
appears that the front should pass through most of the CWA before
peak heating however if the front slows some parts of eastern KS
could see another round of storms Thurs PM.

Thankfully the weather will transition to a cooler and drier
pattern by the weekend and into next week as a ridge builds over
the Rockies and a trough remains in place across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Will keep the terminal forecasts dry and VFR through 14z with
showers then possible in the KMHK vcnty beyond 15Z as the
ejecting high plains trough lifts primarily north of the area.
Will not introduce vcts in the KTOP/KFOE terminals until 00z...but
still remain vfr aoa 5 kft at all sites through the 06Z/01.
South to southeast winds will remain generally under 10 kts except
between 14z and 00z when sustained speeds of 11-13kt with gusts
near 20 kts will be common.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 300847
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
347 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The upper low was located over the Nebraska Panhandle and moving
northward at 08Z. Trailing lobe of energy extended southeast into
northwest Kansas. Another embedded wave was moving across Colorado
at 08Z.

Scattered thunderstorms had developed in southwest Kansas within the
low level jet and theta-e axis. The moisture and instability axis
extends northeast into north Central Kansas.

Expect scattered thunderstorms to affect parts of north central
Kansas this morning into parts of northeast Kansas as trailing wave
pivots northeast across the area as the upper low lifts north into
the Dakotas. This afternoon may see an initial lull in convection
with subsidence the wake of the initial wave before increasing
toward late afternoon and evening. Models suggest that around 1000
J/kg of MUCAPE will be present along with 35 kts of bulk shear.
However mid level lapse rates are marginal. May see a few strong to
severe storms late afternoon through mid evening with mainly hail
and wind the main hazards.

Expect convection to be on the increase tonight as the low level jet
increases across the Central Plains with deep moisture advection
across northeast Kansas. Another wave ejects out of the longwave
trough across Kansas increasing forcing for ascent. Given good
moisture transport tonight along with diffluent upper flow over
eastern Kansas after 06Z, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to be widespread and have
maintained highest probabilities from late evening onward.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing across the area early
Weds as another upper wave passes across the region late Tues
night into early Weds. 40KT LLJ along with WAA and moisture
advection should lead to widespread convection at least into mid
morning. By afternoon would expect some clearing and instability
to increase across Central KS closer to the low level dry surge.
The sfc low should remain nearly stationary across SW KS as the
main upper wave digs into the Rockies by Weds evening. This will
act to back the low level wind fields and help re-focus
convergence along any outflow boundaries/warm front which should
be located somewhere across the CWA. 6KM shear of 40-50kts along
with 1500-2500 MLCAPE and increasing directional shear by sunset
should set the stage for severe storms capable of hail...damaging
winds and perhaps tornadoes given the forecast 3KM direction shear.

ECMWF and GFS both suggest that storms will evolve into a cluster
with some training possible given the orientation of the 50kt
LLJ across the 850mb moisture axis Weds night. This could lead to
locally excessive rains of 2+ inches and perhaps some minor
flooding across the CWA.

By Thursday the upper trough axis will gradually shift east with
lingering showers and storms likely at least through midday before
the cold front passes through by afternoon. At this time it
appears that the front should pass through most of the CWA before
peak heating however if the front slows some parts of eastern KS
could see another round of storms Thurs PM.

Thankfully the weather will transition to a cooler and drier
pattern by the weekend and into next week as a ridge builds over
the Rockies and a trough remains in place across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Will keep the terminal forecasts dry and VFR through 14z with
showers then possible in the KMHK vcnty beyond 15Z as the
ejecting high plains trough lifts primarily north of the area.
Will not introduce vcts in the KTOP/KFOE terminals until 00z...but
still remain vfr aoa 5 kft at all sites through the 06Z/01.
South to southeast winds will remain generally under 10 kts except
between 14z and 00z when sustained speeds of 11-13kt with gusts
near 20 kts will be common.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KGLD 300816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300746
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO
MEADE. EAST OF THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z
TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE
TODAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
PATCH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  30  20  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT



000
FXUS63 KDDC 300746
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO
MEADE. EAST OF THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z
TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE
TODAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
PATCH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  30  20  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300746 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM FOR TYPOS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO MEADE. EAST OF
THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z TUESDAY
AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE TODAY A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARD
AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY PATCH
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ABOVE THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE AFTERNOON.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FIRST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BE
OBSERVED. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN
THIS AREA WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECASTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID 70S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE
LOWER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS WILL START OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY MORNING INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 50S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  54 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  82  54  79  51 /  10  10  20  50
EHA  80  51  79  50 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  81  53 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  81  58  78  53 /  30  20  30  50
P28  85  62  86  60 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KICT 300734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

00 UTC MODELS HAVE GIVEN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 18 UTC
RUNS FOR LOCATION OF FRONT AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS AFTER 12 UTC.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS LATER RUNS KEEP SURFACE FRONT WELL W OF THE
AREA...SETTING UP QUITE WEAK BUT DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION
DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. SUSPECT
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...WILL LINGER VCTS THROUGH END OF
PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  30  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  30  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  30  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  30  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  30  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KICT 300734
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

00 UTC MODELS HAVE GIVEN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 18 UTC
RUNS FOR LOCATION OF FRONT AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS AFTER 12 UTC.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS LATER RUNS KEEP SURFACE FRONT WELL W OF THE
AREA...SETTING UP QUITE WEAK BUT DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION
DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. SUSPECT
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...WILL LINGER VCTS THROUGH END OF
PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    83  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  85  61 /  30  50  40  50
NEWTON          82  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        83  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   84  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         81  59  79  55 /  30  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  30  40  40  40
SALINA          82  63  81  60 /  30  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  30  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            83  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDDC 300625
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO
MEADE. EAST OF THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z
TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE
TODAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
PATCH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  52 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  82  54  78  49 /  10  10  30  40
EHA  80  51  78  49 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  80  51 /  10  10  10  30
HYS  81  58  77  52 /  40  20  40  50
P28  85  62  86  59 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300532
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 300532
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTHWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GOOD
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...LLJ IS ABSENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HOWEVER...WITH
MODELS DRY HARD TO JUSTIFY MORE THAN SILENT 10 POPS FOR THE
SITUATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABSENCE OF LLJ.

BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE WITH THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG IT IN EASTERN
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW SYSTEM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF UP TO 50KTS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...IN
ADDITION TO A TORNADO RISK ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM HILL CITY TO RUSSELL SPRINGS WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AGAIN AFTER 06Z
WITH SEVERE THREAT WANING.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL END AS NORTHWEST FLOW/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES SO AFTER THURSDAY MORNING FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARMING BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 300513
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN UTAH. A +80 KNOT 250MB JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE TO 850MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ARE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EVENING CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE +19C AT NORTH PLATTE, +20C
AT DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO. 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +6C AT
NORTH PLATTE TO +9C AT AMARILLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A STRONG H5 VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, A SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ENHANCING THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG JET CORE EXITING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS,
WILL CLIMB NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
MAKING DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH WINDS IN
EXCEEDING 80KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN, NOT TO MENTION MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING NEAR 1000 J/KG
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MID TO UPPER
50S(F) OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH
UP INTO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  81  52  71 /  20  20  30  20
GCK  54  78  49  70 /  10  30  40  20
EHA  51  78  49  70 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  53  80  51  71 /  10  10  30  20
HYS  58  77  52  68 /  20  40  50  30
P28  62  86  59  74 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300513
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN UTAH. A +80 KNOT 250MB JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE TO 850MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ARE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EVENING CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE +19C AT NORTH PLATTE, +20C
AT DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO. 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +6C AT
NORTH PLATTE TO +9C AT AMARILLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A STRONG H5 VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, A SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ENHANCING THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG JET CORE EXITING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS,
WILL CLIMB NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
MAKING DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH WINDS IN
EXCEEDING 80KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN, NOT TO MENTION MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING NEAR 1000 J/KG
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MID TO UPPER
50S(F) OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH
UP INTO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  81  52  71 /  20  20  30  20
GCK  54  78  49  70 /  10  30  40  20
EHA  51  78  49  70 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  53  80  51  71 /  10  10  30  20
HYS  58  77  52  68 /  20  40  50  30
P28  62  86  59  74 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300513
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN UTAH. A +80 KNOT 250MB JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE TO 850MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ARE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EVENING CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE +19C AT NORTH PLATTE, +20C
AT DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO. 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +6C AT
NORTH PLATTE TO +9C AT AMARILLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A STRONG H5 VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, A SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ENHANCING THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG JET CORE EXITING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS,
WILL CLIMB NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
MAKING DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH WINDS IN
EXCEEDING 80KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN, NOT TO MENTION MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING NEAR 1000 J/KG
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MID TO UPPER
50S(F) OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH
UP INTO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  81  52  71 /  20  20  30  20
GCK  54  78  49  70 /  10  30  40  20
EHA  51  78  49  70 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  53  80  51  71 /  10  10  30  20
HYS  58  77  52  68 /  20  40  50  30
P28  62  86  59  74 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 300513
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1213 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AT 00Z TUESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN COLORADO
INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED UPSTREAM IN NORTHERN UTAH. A +80 KNOT 250MB JET STREAK
EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS A SURFACE TO 850MB TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ARE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EVENING CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z TUESDAY WERE +19C AT NORTH PLATTE, +20C
AT DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO. 700MB TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM +6C AT
NORTH PLATTE TO +9C AT AMARILLO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
COLORADO TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS A STRONG H5 VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES OF SOUTHERN COLORADO, A SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ENHANCING THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRAWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
MEANWHILE, THE STRONG JET CORE EXITING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS,
WILL CLIMB NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING
MAKING DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE WITH WINDS IN
EXCEEDING 80KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR, STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
AND INCREASING INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPING STORMS WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR VERY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DUE TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN, NOT TO MENTION MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING NEAR 1000 J/KG
OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.

LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MID TO UPPER
50S(F) OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
OVERNIGHT, DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY ALLOWING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH
UP INTO THE LOWER 20S(C) ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S(F) IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  81  52  71 /  20  20  30  20
GCK  54  78  49  70 /  10  30  40  20
EHA  51  78  49  70 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  53  80  51  71 /  10  10  30  20
HYS  58  77  52  68 /  20  40  50  30
P28  62  86  59  74 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KTOP 300456 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

On the large scale, the current weather pattern is  characterized by
surface high pressure over eastern KS and MO with a deepening
surface low in southeast Colorado. The surface low has been
developing in response to the approach of a long wave trough over
the Rockies and the ejection of a strong embedded short wave trough
from the four corners region. This initial strong short wave will
track into western South Dakota by Tuesday morning with the base of
the trough energy drifting across northern KS through the day on
Tuesday. Thunderstorms will develop in eastern CO and western KS
late today and progress east overnight. These may approach the
highway 81 corridor as early as 3 AM but will likely hold off until
closer to sunrise. A gradually veering low level jet will continue
to feed increasing theta-e air into the zone of ascent aloft and
should result in the axis of scattered thunderstorms persisting
through the day on Tuesday, although seemingly likely to show a
decreasing trend with eastward extent through the day. Instability
will generally be limited in association with these storms and
severe weather is unlikely through at least early afternoon. By mid
afternoon however, expect destabilization to occur in the wake of
the initial thunderstorms near and ahead of a low level convergence
zone in north central KS. This convergence will be enhanced during
the evening as a new jet max moves out of the Rockies and surface
low pressure again intensifies in southeast Colorado...backing winds
locally. Another round of storms will likely develop in response to
this in central and north central KS. 0-6 km wind shear will be
sufficient for organized storm structure, including supercells, but
the main question will be just how much instability can develop
before sunset. Most indications suggest in the neighborhoods of
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE but the mid-level lapse rates are not
particularly impressive. With all of this in mind, there seems to be
a period roughly from 4 PM to 9 PM during which semi-discrete storms
with embedded supercell structure are possible. LCL`s are elevated
and low level shear not particularly impressive so the main hazards
with any strong storms through the evening would be locally damaging
winds and perhaps severe hail (more likely if mid-level storm
rotation develops). The LLJ intensifies by late evening into the
overnight with a focus for thunderstorm development remaining in the
local area especially north of I-70. Moisture content will increase
and there is some potential for a bit of storm training so a
localized flash flood threat could develop by Wednesday morning.
Modest elevated CAPE in combination with decent elevated shear
profiles may allow a marginally severe hail threat to persist
through Tuesday night.

Through sunrise Wednesday, east central KS, mainly near/south of
I-35, is the most likely to be unimpacted by thunderstorms, and most
likely to have temperatures in the low to mid 80s for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The next mid level shortwave and associated jet streak will begin to
lift into the plains Wednesday morning. At the surface a low
pressure forms across southwest KS and OK panhandle with a
quasi-stationary front which extends through north central KS.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will likely persist through the
morning hours on Wednesday, and possibly the afternoon. During the
day as the system ejects the Rockies high theta-E air surges north
into northeast KS south of the boundary. The main concern will be
can the warm sector recover from the ongoing activity. The 12z NAM
depicts decent boundary layer mixing, while mid to upper 60 dew
points wrap northward ahead of the sfc low covering the entire area
by the afternoon. Also, steep mid level lapse rates overspread the
region from the west allowing for an increase in MU cape. The NAM is
most aggressive with this instability, which could be as high as
2000 j/kg by late morning. As the same time deep layer shear greater
than 40 kts moves over the region. Therefore any storms forming
along the front in north central KS could be strong to severe by
late morning. Also, elevated storms across the warm sector could be
possible with a low level jet nosing into northeast KS as depicted
by the NAM, and given the shear these storms could be strong as
well. The other main issue with this forecast is that the models
show several minor shortwaves, which may or may not contribute to
upward motion and or subsidence at any time on Wednesday.

During the afternoon and evening hours the sfc low and associated
dry punch lifts into central KS with deep layer shear increasing to
as high as 55 kts. The sfc low should become a focus for development
of strong to severe storms late Wed. With the sfc low approaching
central KS low level winds in eastern KS begin to back to the
southeast. This causes the hodograph to exhibit strong clockwise
curvature contributing to high SRH especially around sunset. If
boundary layer mixing is efficient than LCLs are forecast to be
just over 1 km across most of the area. It is this time frame that
there may be a potential for a tornado or two. The most favorable
area should be northeast of the sfc low, which would cover our
western and southwest forecast area through the evening hours. If
the nocturnal inversion were to develop quickly than the tornado
and wind potential would diminish shortly after sunset. Another risk
to be aware of will be flooding. This system will pull plenty of
moisture northward with PWATs ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches. Storms
producing locally heavy rain and training over the same areas
could poss a threat.

There is slightly better agreement among the models with regards to
the timing of the main trough axis and associated energy. Although
the ECMWF continues to be the fastest solution, which starts pushing
the cold front through the area overnight Wednesday. The NAM and GFS
slowly push the front eastward leaving a potential for strong to
severe storms in east central KS Thurs afternoon. Will leave out the
details on how this system further evolves during this timeframe
given the uncertainty. Otherwise post frontal showers and some
thunderstorms are possible as the main trough axis passes
overhead during the day Thursday. Behind the system cooler and
drier air filters into the region making for a pleasant weekend
with temps closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Will keep the terminal forecasts dry and VFR through 14z with
showers then possible in the KMHK vcnty beyond 15Z as the
ejecting high plains trough lifts primarily north of the area.
Will not introduce vcts in the KTOP/KFOE terminals until 00z...but
still remain vfr aoa 5 kft at all sites through the 06Z/01.
South to southeast winds will remain generally under 10 kts except
between 14z and 00z when sustained speeds of 11-13kt with gusts
near 20 kts will be common.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 300456 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

On the large scale, the current weather pattern is  characterized by
surface high pressure over eastern KS and MO with a deepening
surface low in southeast Colorado. The surface low has been
developing in response to the approach of a long wave trough over
the Rockies and the ejection of a strong embedded short wave trough
from the four corners region. This initial strong short wave will
track into western South Dakota by Tuesday morning with the base of
the trough energy drifting across northern KS through the day on
Tuesday. Thunderstorms will develop in eastern CO and western KS
late today and progress east overnight. These may approach the
highway 81 corridor as early as 3 AM but will likely hold off until
closer to sunrise. A gradually veering low level jet will continue
to feed increasing theta-e air into the zone of ascent aloft and
should result in the axis of scattered thunderstorms persisting
through the day on Tuesday, although seemingly likely to show a
decreasing trend with eastward extent through the day. Instability
will generally be limited in association with these storms and
severe weather is unlikely through at least early afternoon. By mid
afternoon however, expect destabilization to occur in the wake of
the initial thunderstorms near and ahead of a low level convergence
zone in north central KS. This convergence will be enhanced during
the evening as a new jet max moves out of the Rockies and surface
low pressure again intensifies in southeast Colorado...backing winds
locally. Another round of storms will likely develop in response to
this in central and north central KS. 0-6 km wind shear will be
sufficient for organized storm structure, including supercells, but
the main question will be just how much instability can develop
before sunset. Most indications suggest in the neighborhoods of
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE but the mid-level lapse rates are not
particularly impressive. With all of this in mind, there seems to be
a period roughly from 4 PM to 9 PM during which semi-discrete storms
with embedded supercell structure are possible. LCL`s are elevated
and low level shear not particularly impressive so the main hazards
with any strong storms through the evening would be locally damaging
winds and perhaps severe hail (more likely if mid-level storm
rotation develops). The LLJ intensifies by late evening into the
overnight with a focus for thunderstorm development remaining in the
local area especially north of I-70. Moisture content will increase
and there is some potential for a bit of storm training so a
localized flash flood threat could develop by Wednesday morning.
Modest elevated CAPE in combination with decent elevated shear
profiles may allow a marginally severe hail threat to persist
through Tuesday night.

Through sunrise Wednesday, east central KS, mainly near/south of
I-35, is the most likely to be unimpacted by thunderstorms, and most
likely to have temperatures in the low to mid 80s for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The next mid level shortwave and associated jet streak will begin to
lift into the plains Wednesday morning. At the surface a low
pressure forms across southwest KS and OK panhandle with a
quasi-stationary front which extends through north central KS.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will likely persist through the
morning hours on Wednesday, and possibly the afternoon. During the
day as the system ejects the Rockies high theta-E air surges north
into northeast KS south of the boundary. The main concern will be
can the warm sector recover from the ongoing activity. The 12z NAM
depicts decent boundary layer mixing, while mid to upper 60 dew
points wrap northward ahead of the sfc low covering the entire area
by the afternoon. Also, steep mid level lapse rates overspread the
region from the west allowing for an increase in MU cape. The NAM is
most aggressive with this instability, which could be as high as
2000 j/kg by late morning. As the same time deep layer shear greater
than 40 kts moves over the region. Therefore any storms forming
along the front in north central KS could be strong to severe by
late morning. Also, elevated storms across the warm sector could be
possible with a low level jet nosing into northeast KS as depicted
by the NAM, and given the shear these storms could be strong as
well. The other main issue with this forecast is that the models
show several minor shortwaves, which may or may not contribute to
upward motion and or subsidence at any time on Wednesday.

During the afternoon and evening hours the sfc low and associated
dry punch lifts into central KS with deep layer shear increasing to
as high as 55 kts. The sfc low should become a focus for development
of strong to severe storms late Wed. With the sfc low approaching
central KS low level winds in eastern KS begin to back to the
southeast. This causes the hodograph to exhibit strong clockwise
curvature contributing to high SRH especially around sunset. If
boundary layer mixing is efficient than LCLs are forecast to be
just over 1 km across most of the area. It is this time frame that
there may be a potential for a tornado or two. The most favorable
area should be northeast of the sfc low, which would cover our
western and southwest forecast area through the evening hours. If
the nocturnal inversion were to develop quickly than the tornado
and wind potential would diminish shortly after sunset. Another risk
to be aware of will be flooding. This system will pull plenty of
moisture northward with PWATs ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches. Storms
producing locally heavy rain and training over the same areas
could poss a threat.

There is slightly better agreement among the models with regards to
the timing of the main trough axis and associated energy. Although
the ECMWF continues to be the fastest solution, which starts pushing
the cold front through the area overnight Wednesday. The NAM and GFS
slowly push the front eastward leaving a potential for strong to
severe storms in east central KS Thurs afternoon. Will leave out the
details on how this system further evolves during this timeframe
given the uncertainty. Otherwise post frontal showers and some
thunderstorms are possible as the main trough axis passes
overhead during the day Thursday. Behind the system cooler and
drier air filters into the region making for a pleasant weekend
with temps closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Will keep the terminal forecasts dry and VFR through 14z with
showers then possible in the KMHK vcnty beyond 15Z as the
ejecting high plains trough lifts primarily north of the area.
Will not introduce vcts in the KTOP/KFOE terminals until 00z...but
still remain vfr aoa 5 kft at all sites through the 06Z/01.
South to southeast winds will remain generally under 10 kts except
between 14z and 00z when sustained speeds of 11-13kt with gusts
near 20 kts will be common.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 300456 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

On the large scale, the current weather pattern is  characterized by
surface high pressure over eastern KS and MO with a deepening
surface low in southeast Colorado. The surface low has been
developing in response to the approach of a long wave trough over
the Rockies and the ejection of a strong embedded short wave trough
from the four corners region. This initial strong short wave will
track into western South Dakota by Tuesday morning with the base of
the trough energy drifting across northern KS through the day on
Tuesday. Thunderstorms will develop in eastern CO and western KS
late today and progress east overnight. These may approach the
highway 81 corridor as early as 3 AM but will likely hold off until
closer to sunrise. A gradually veering low level jet will continue
to feed increasing theta-e air into the zone of ascent aloft and
should result in the axis of scattered thunderstorms persisting
through the day on Tuesday, although seemingly likely to show a
decreasing trend with eastward extent through the day. Instability
will generally be limited in association with these storms and
severe weather is unlikely through at least early afternoon. By mid
afternoon however, expect destabilization to occur in the wake of
the initial thunderstorms near and ahead of a low level convergence
zone in north central KS. This convergence will be enhanced during
the evening as a new jet max moves out of the Rockies and surface
low pressure again intensifies in southeast Colorado...backing winds
locally. Another round of storms will likely develop in response to
this in central and north central KS. 0-6 km wind shear will be
sufficient for organized storm structure, including supercells, but
the main question will be just how much instability can develop
before sunset. Most indications suggest in the neighborhoods of
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE but the mid-level lapse rates are not
particularly impressive. With all of this in mind, there seems to be
a period roughly from 4 PM to 9 PM during which semi-discrete storms
with embedded supercell structure are possible. LCL`s are elevated
and low level shear not particularly impressive so the main hazards
with any strong storms through the evening would be locally damaging
winds and perhaps severe hail (more likely if mid-level storm
rotation develops). The LLJ intensifies by late evening into the
overnight with a focus for thunderstorm development remaining in the
local area especially north of I-70. Moisture content will increase
and there is some potential for a bit of storm training so a
localized flash flood threat could develop by Wednesday morning.
Modest elevated CAPE in combination with decent elevated shear
profiles may allow a marginally severe hail threat to persist
through Tuesday night.

Through sunrise Wednesday, east central KS, mainly near/south of
I-35, is the most likely to be unimpacted by thunderstorms, and most
likely to have temperatures in the low to mid 80s for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The next mid level shortwave and associated jet streak will begin to
lift into the plains Wednesday morning. At the surface a low
pressure forms across southwest KS and OK panhandle with a
quasi-stationary front which extends through north central KS.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will likely persist through the
morning hours on Wednesday, and possibly the afternoon. During the
day as the system ejects the Rockies high theta-E air surges north
into northeast KS south of the boundary. The main concern will be
can the warm sector recover from the ongoing activity. The 12z NAM
depicts decent boundary layer mixing, while mid to upper 60 dew
points wrap northward ahead of the sfc low covering the entire area
by the afternoon. Also, steep mid level lapse rates overspread the
region from the west allowing for an increase in MU cape. The NAM is
most aggressive with this instability, which could be as high as
2000 j/kg by late morning. As the same time deep layer shear greater
than 40 kts moves over the region. Therefore any storms forming
along the front in north central KS could be strong to severe by
late morning. Also, elevated storms across the warm sector could be
possible with a low level jet nosing into northeast KS as depicted
by the NAM, and given the shear these storms could be strong as
well. The other main issue with this forecast is that the models
show several minor shortwaves, which may or may not contribute to
upward motion and or subsidence at any time on Wednesday.

During the afternoon and evening hours the sfc low and associated
dry punch lifts into central KS with deep layer shear increasing to
as high as 55 kts. The sfc low should become a focus for development
of strong to severe storms late Wed. With the sfc low approaching
central KS low level winds in eastern KS begin to back to the
southeast. This causes the hodograph to exhibit strong clockwise
curvature contributing to high SRH especially around sunset. If
boundary layer mixing is efficient than LCLs are forecast to be
just over 1 km across most of the area. It is this time frame that
there may be a potential for a tornado or two. The most favorable
area should be northeast of the sfc low, which would cover our
western and southwest forecast area through the evening hours. If
the nocturnal inversion were to develop quickly than the tornado
and wind potential would diminish shortly after sunset. Another risk
to be aware of will be flooding. This system will pull plenty of
moisture northward with PWATs ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches. Storms
producing locally heavy rain and training over the same areas
could poss a threat.

There is slightly better agreement among the models with regards to
the timing of the main trough axis and associated energy. Although
the ECMWF continues to be the fastest solution, which starts pushing
the cold front through the area overnight Wednesday. The NAM and GFS
slowly push the front eastward leaving a potential for strong to
severe storms in east central KS Thurs afternoon. Will leave out the
details on how this system further evolves during this timeframe
given the uncertainty. Otherwise post frontal showers and some
thunderstorms are possible as the main trough axis passes
overhead during the day Thursday. Behind the system cooler and
drier air filters into the region making for a pleasant weekend
with temps closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Will keep the terminal forecasts dry and VFR through 14z with
showers then possible in the KMHK vcnty beyond 15Z as the
ejecting high plains trough lifts primarily north of the area.
Will not introduce vcts in the KTOP/KFOE terminals until 00z...but
still remain vfr aoa 5 kft at all sites through the 06Z/01.
South to southeast winds will remain generally under 10 kts except
between 14z and 00z when sustained speeds of 11-13kt with gusts
near 20 kts will be common.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KTOP 300456 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1156 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

On the large scale, the current weather pattern is  characterized by
surface high pressure over eastern KS and MO with a deepening
surface low in southeast Colorado. The surface low has been
developing in response to the approach of a long wave trough over
the Rockies and the ejection of a strong embedded short wave trough
from the four corners region. This initial strong short wave will
track into western South Dakota by Tuesday morning with the base of
the trough energy drifting across northern KS through the day on
Tuesday. Thunderstorms will develop in eastern CO and western KS
late today and progress east overnight. These may approach the
highway 81 corridor as early as 3 AM but will likely hold off until
closer to sunrise. A gradually veering low level jet will continue
to feed increasing theta-e air into the zone of ascent aloft and
should result in the axis of scattered thunderstorms persisting
through the day on Tuesday, although seemingly likely to show a
decreasing trend with eastward extent through the day. Instability
will generally be limited in association with these storms and
severe weather is unlikely through at least early afternoon. By mid
afternoon however, expect destabilization to occur in the wake of
the initial thunderstorms near and ahead of a low level convergence
zone in north central KS. This convergence will be enhanced during
the evening as a new jet max moves out of the Rockies and surface
low pressure again intensifies in southeast Colorado...backing winds
locally. Another round of storms will likely develop in response to
this in central and north central KS. 0-6 km wind shear will be
sufficient for organized storm structure, including supercells, but
the main question will be just how much instability can develop
before sunset. Most indications suggest in the neighborhoods of
around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE but the mid-level lapse rates are not
particularly impressive. With all of this in mind, there seems to be
a period roughly from 4 PM to 9 PM during which semi-discrete storms
with embedded supercell structure are possible. LCL`s are elevated
and low level shear not particularly impressive so the main hazards
with any strong storms through the evening would be locally damaging
winds and perhaps severe hail (more likely if mid-level storm
rotation develops). The LLJ intensifies by late evening into the
overnight with a focus for thunderstorm development remaining in the
local area especially north of I-70. Moisture content will increase
and there is some potential for a bit of storm training so a
localized flash flood threat could develop by Wednesday morning.
Modest elevated CAPE in combination with decent elevated shear
profiles may allow a marginally severe hail threat to persist
through Tuesday night.

Through sunrise Wednesday, east central KS, mainly near/south of
I-35, is the most likely to be unimpacted by thunderstorms, and most
likely to have temperatures in the low to mid 80s for highs on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The next mid level shortwave and associated jet streak will begin to
lift into the plains Wednesday morning. At the surface a low
pressure forms across southwest KS and OK panhandle with a
quasi-stationary front which extends through north central KS.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will likely persist through the
morning hours on Wednesday, and possibly the afternoon. During the
day as the system ejects the Rockies high theta-E air surges north
into northeast KS south of the boundary. The main concern will be
can the warm sector recover from the ongoing activity. The 12z NAM
depicts decent boundary layer mixing, while mid to upper 60 dew
points wrap northward ahead of the sfc low covering the entire area
by the afternoon. Also, steep mid level lapse rates overspread the
region from the west allowing for an increase in MU cape. The NAM is
most aggressive with this instability, which could be as high as
2000 j/kg by late morning. As the same time deep layer shear greater
than 40 kts moves over the region. Therefore any storms forming
along the front in north central KS could be strong to severe by
late morning. Also, elevated storms across the warm sector could be
possible with a low level jet nosing into northeast KS as depicted
by the NAM, and given the shear these storms could be strong as
well. The other main issue with this forecast is that the models
show several minor shortwaves, which may or may not contribute to
upward motion and or subsidence at any time on Wednesday.

During the afternoon and evening hours the sfc low and associated
dry punch lifts into central KS with deep layer shear increasing to
as high as 55 kts. The sfc low should become a focus for development
of strong to severe storms late Wed. With the sfc low approaching
central KS low level winds in eastern KS begin to back to the
southeast. This causes the hodograph to exhibit strong clockwise
curvature contributing to high SRH especially around sunset. If
boundary layer mixing is efficient than LCLs are forecast to be
just over 1 km across most of the area. It is this time frame that
there may be a potential for a tornado or two. The most favorable
area should be northeast of the sfc low, which would cover our
western and southwest forecast area through the evening hours. If
the nocturnal inversion were to develop quickly than the tornado
and wind potential would diminish shortly after sunset. Another risk
to be aware of will be flooding. This system will pull plenty of
moisture northward with PWATs ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches. Storms
producing locally heavy rain and training over the same areas
could poss a threat.

There is slightly better agreement among the models with regards to
the timing of the main trough axis and associated energy. Although
the ECMWF continues to be the fastest solution, which starts pushing
the cold front through the area overnight Wednesday. The NAM and GFS
slowly push the front eastward leaving a potential for strong to
severe storms in east central KS Thurs afternoon. Will leave out the
details on how this system further evolves during this timeframe
given the uncertainty. Otherwise post frontal showers and some
thunderstorms are possible as the main trough axis passes
overhead during the day Thursday. Behind the system cooler and
drier air filters into the region making for a pleasant weekend
with temps closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Will keep the terminal forecasts dry and VFR through 14z with
showers then possible in the KMHK vcnty beyond 15Z as the
ejecting high plains trough lifts primarily north of the area.
Will not introduce vcts in the KTOP/KFOE terminals until 00z...but
still remain vfr aoa 5 kft at all sites through the 06Z/01.
South to southeast winds will remain generally under 10 kts except
between 14z and 00z when sustained speeds of 11-13kt with gusts
near 20 kts will be common.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...63






000
FXUS63 KICT 300452
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AS THE ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO TO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT ON THE
TAIL END OF THE BETTER FORCING WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY DECENT 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/MODEST INSTABILITY.
SOME THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER/LINGER INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY
PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE SOME
RENEWED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY-LINE...WHICH COULD
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET OFF THE PACIFIC WILL DIG SOUTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING TUESDAY WHICH WILL DEVELOP
ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH WEAKER IMPULSES WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW
AND LOW LEVEL JET AIDING INCREASING CHANCES/COVERAGE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE DRY-LINE/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA.
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WARM
MOIST SECTOR...THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL LIKELY BE PREDICATED ON THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.
SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUD COVER FROM FESTERING CONVECTION DURING
THE DAY COULD MUTE SURFACE HEATING AND CAPE...THOUGH STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW END SEVERE EVENT. IF MORE SUNSHINE
ALLOWS FOR STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN A HIGHER END SEVERE RISK WILL BECOME
MORE PROBABLE. THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS MOST
PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH FOR
NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT PHASING UPPER
TROFS INTO A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH KANSAS IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH GRADUAL WARMING
OVER THE WEEKEND.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

00 UTC MODELS HAVE GIVEN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THEIR 18 UTC
RUNS FOR LOCATION OF FRONT AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS AFTER 12 UTC.
MAIN DIFFERENCE IS LATER RUNS KEEP SURFACE FRONT WELL W OF THE
AREA...SETTING UP QUITE WEAK BUT DEEP LAYER WARM AIR ADVECTION
DURING MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. SUSPECT
THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...WILL LINGER VCTS THROUGH END OF
PERIOD AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  85  65  86 /  10  30  50  50
HUTCHINSON      63  84  64  85 /  20  50  60  40
NEWTON          62  82  65  84 /  10  30  60  50
ELDORADO        61  85  65  84 /  10  30  50  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  86  66  86 /  10  30  50  50
RUSSELL         62  82  59  81 /  60  60  40  40
GREAT BEND      62  83  60  83 /  60  50  40  40
SALINA          63  83  63  83 /  30  50  70  50
MCPHERSON       63  83  64  84 /  20  50  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     61  86  63  85 /   0  10  40  50
CHANUTE         60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
IOLA            60  85  63  84 /   0  10  40  50
PARSONS-KPPF    60  86  63  84 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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