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000
FXUS63 KTOP 281142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Convective complex that began over western Kansas this afternoon had
recent central portions of the state early this morning. System is
making decent eastward progress and duration of heavy and then
lighter precip are not long, helping keep heavy amounts in check.
Precip will likely be waning in next few hours and expect the Flash
Flood Watch to expire, if not be cancelled early. Another somewhat
stationary complex has taken shape over southwest Kansas over the
past few hours, perhaps from gravity wave from MCS to its south.
Even the rapidly updating models are struggling with these smaller
scale systems, leading to a rather low confidence forecast.
West-southwest flow remains aloft with at least three shortwave
troughs over the western states evident on water vapor imagery.

HRRR and RAP continue to be slow with the current complex in the
CWA, and seem to attempt to congeal the SW KS system into the current
one over the next several hours. Going with radar trends, expect a
decreasing trend in the west with eastern areas seeing the current
bands move through early this morning. A general downtrend in
activity is then expected into the afternoon with next better chance
for convection coming in the late evening and overnight as the upper
wave over Utah early this morning swings through. With persistent
but modest warm air advection into the region and outflow
boundaries, gravity waves, and other mesoscale forcing mechanisms
likely passing through, at least small precip chances exist
throughout the day and night. Elevated instability tonight looks
somewhat greater than today with a similar though more veered low
level jet. Along with PW values around 1.5", will again need to
watch for heavy rains, but confidence is too low to support a Flash
Flood Watch with wide spread in where and even if precip will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

By Friday morning the main mid/upper level trough stretches from
eastern WY up to MN, while several shortwaves swing over the central
and southern plains. These waves will likely dictate where showers
and storms develop and or track during the day Friday. A cold front
will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points
in from the south. Both the NAM and GFS are suggesting dew points
reach the mid to upper 60s with a few 70s possible. Decent lapse
rates in the southwest flow aloft yield cape on the order of
2500-3500 j/kg with little inhibition. The deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, and the vertical profile seems mostly unidirectional.
Given this type of environment both ahead and along the front do not
expect any supercells. If any of these waves or MCSs pass over
during the morning hours than subsidence could inhibit diurnal
development. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning
Friday evening and during the overnight. Showers and storms are
possible along the front, but the instability should be on the
decrease and shear remains low. So again do not expect any well
organized severe storms overnight. Also, the models are not in good
agreement on the 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes and directions, so not
sure if there will be any organized wind threat. Although, given the
cape there is a marginal risk for hail during the afternoon and
evening hours.

The front should clear the area by 12Z Saturday, but the problem is
the mid level trough is still back over central KS and eastern NE.
The trough is forecast to progress eastward during the day Saturday.
This along with 925 mb frontogenesis could provide enough lift
within some residual low level moisture for light post frontal
precip. Confidence in these precip chances are not high therefore
kept the area mostly under slight pops. Cooler and drier air moves
in on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Rockies. The models have now kept the energy that moves over
Saturday closed off over the southern MS valley preventing the ridge
from building too far north. Meanwhile more mid level troughing
moves over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies by mid week.
Southwest flow aloft will soon follow as more shortwaves begin to
drive the weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Precipitation should slowly subside over the next few-several
hours with wave pushing off to the ENE. Next best chance for
convection comes after 03Z with another complex of TSRA possibly
moving through from the west. Will maintain VCTS only at this
point given continued uncertainty.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Convective complex that began over western Kansas this afternoon had
recent central portions of the state early this morning. System is
making decent eastward progress and duration of heavy and then
lighter precip are not long, helping keep heavy amounts in check.
Precip will likely be waning in next few hours and expect the Flash
Flood Watch to expire, if not be cancelled early. Another somewhat
stationary complex has taken shape over southwest Kansas over the
past few hours, perhaps from gravity wave from MCS to its south.
Even the rapidly updating models are struggling with these smaller
scale systems, leading to a rather low confidence forecast.
West-southwest flow remains aloft with at least three shortwave
troughs over the western states evident on water vapor imagery.

HRRR and RAP continue to be slow with the current complex in the
CWA, and seem to attempt to congeal the SW KS system into the current
one over the next several hours. Going with radar trends, expect a
decreasing trend in the west with eastern areas seeing the current
bands move through early this morning. A general downtrend in
activity is then expected into the afternoon with next better chance
for convection coming in the late evening and overnight as the upper
wave over Utah early this morning swings through. With persistent
but modest warm air advection into the region and outflow
boundaries, gravity waves, and other mesoscale forcing mechanisms
likely passing through, at least small precip chances exist
throughout the day and night. Elevated instability tonight looks
somewhat greater than today with a similar though more veered low
level jet. Along with PW values around 1.5", will again need to
watch for heavy rains, but confidence is too low to support a Flash
Flood Watch with wide spread in where and even if precip will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

By Friday morning the main mid/upper level trough stretches from
eastern WY up to MN, while several shortwaves swing over the central
and southern plains. These waves will likely dictate where showers
and storms develop and or track during the day Friday. A cold front
will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points
in from the south. Both the NAM and GFS are suggesting dew points
reach the mid to upper 60s with a few 70s possible. Decent lapse
rates in the southwest flow aloft yield cape on the order of
2500-3500 j/kg with little inhibition. The deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, and the vertical profile seems mostly unidirectional.
Given this type of environment both ahead and along the front do not
expect any supercells. If any of these waves or MCSs pass over
during the morning hours than subsidence could inhibit diurnal
development. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning
Friday evening and during the overnight. Showers and storms are
possible along the front, but the instability should be on the
decrease and shear remains low. So again do not expect any well
organized severe storms overnight. Also, the models are not in good
agreement on the 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes and directions, so not
sure if there will be any organized wind threat. Although, given the
cape there is a marginal risk for hail during the afternoon and
evening hours.

The front should clear the area by 12Z Saturday, but the problem is
the mid level trough is still back over central KS and eastern NE.
The trough is forecast to progress eastward during the day Saturday.
This along with 925 mb frontogenesis could provide enough lift
within some residual low level moisture for light post frontal
precip. Confidence in these precip chances are not high therefore
kept the area mostly under slight pops. Cooler and drier air moves
in on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Rockies. The models have now kept the energy that moves over
Saturday closed off over the southern MS valley preventing the ridge
from building too far north. Meanwhile more mid level troughing
moves over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies by mid week.
Southwest flow aloft will soon follow as more shortwaves begin to
drive the weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Precipitation should slowly subside over the next few-several
hours with wave pushing off to the ENE. Next best chance for
convection comes after 03Z with another complex of TSRA possibly
moving through from the west. Will maintain VCTS only at this
point given continued uncertainty.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Convective complex that began over western Kansas this afternoon had
recent central portions of the state early this morning. System is
making decent eastward progress and duration of heavy and then
lighter precip are not long, helping keep heavy amounts in check.
Precip will likely be waning in next few hours and expect the Flash
Flood Watch to expire, if not be cancelled early. Another somewhat
stationary complex has taken shape over southwest Kansas over the
past few hours, perhaps from gravity wave from MCS to its south.
Even the rapidly updating models are struggling with these smaller
scale systems, leading to a rather low confidence forecast.
West-southwest flow remains aloft with at least three shortwave
troughs over the western states evident on water vapor imagery.

HRRR and RAP continue to be slow with the current complex in the
CWA, and seem to attempt to congeal the SW KS system into the current
one over the next several hours. Going with radar trends, expect a
decreasing trend in the west with eastern areas seeing the current
bands move through early this morning. A general downtrend in
activity is then expected into the afternoon with next better chance
for convection coming in the late evening and overnight as the upper
wave over Utah early this morning swings through. With persistent
but modest warm air advection into the region and outflow
boundaries, gravity waves, and other mesoscale forcing mechanisms
likely passing through, at least small precip chances exist
throughout the day and night. Elevated instability tonight looks
somewhat greater than today with a similar though more veered low
level jet. Along with PW values around 1.5", will again need to
watch for heavy rains, but confidence is too low to support a Flash
Flood Watch with wide spread in where and even if precip will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

By Friday morning the main mid/upper level trough stretches from
eastern WY up to MN, while several shortwaves swing over the central
and southern plains. These waves will likely dictate where showers
and storms develop and or track during the day Friday. A cold front
will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points
in from the south. Both the NAM and GFS are suggesting dew points
reach the mid to upper 60s with a few 70s possible. Decent lapse
rates in the southwest flow aloft yield cape on the order of
2500-3500 j/kg with little inhibition. The deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, and the vertical profile seems mostly unidirectional.
Given this type of environment both ahead and along the front do not
expect any supercells. If any of these waves or MCSs pass over
during the morning hours than subsidence could inhibit diurnal
development. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning
Friday evening and during the overnight. Showers and storms are
possible along the front, but the instability should be on the
decrease and shear remains low. So again do not expect any well
organized severe storms overnight. Also, the models are not in good
agreement on the 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes and directions, so not
sure if there will be any organized wind threat. Although, given the
cape there is a marginal risk for hail during the afternoon and
evening hours.

The front should clear the area by 12Z Saturday, but the problem is
the mid level trough is still back over central KS and eastern NE.
The trough is forecast to progress eastward during the day Saturday.
This along with 925 mb frontogenesis could provide enough lift
within some residual low level moisture for light post frontal
precip. Confidence in these precip chances are not high therefore
kept the area mostly under slight pops. Cooler and drier air moves
in on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Rockies. The models have now kept the energy that moves over
Saturday closed off over the southern MS valley preventing the ridge
from building too far north. Meanwhile more mid level troughing
moves over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies by mid week.
Southwest flow aloft will soon follow as more shortwaves begin to
drive the weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Precipitation should slowly subside over the next few-several
hours with wave pushing off to the ENE. Next best chance for
convection comes after 03Z with another complex of TSRA possibly
moving through from the west. Will maintain VCTS only at this
point given continued uncertainty.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65







000
FXUS63 KTOP 281142
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Convective complex that began over western Kansas this afternoon had
recent central portions of the state early this morning. System is
making decent eastward progress and duration of heavy and then
lighter precip are not long, helping keep heavy amounts in check.
Precip will likely be waning in next few hours and expect the Flash
Flood Watch to expire, if not be cancelled early. Another somewhat
stationary complex has taken shape over southwest Kansas over the
past few hours, perhaps from gravity wave from MCS to its south.
Even the rapidly updating models are struggling with these smaller
scale systems, leading to a rather low confidence forecast.
West-southwest flow remains aloft with at least three shortwave
troughs over the western states evident on water vapor imagery.

HRRR and RAP continue to be slow with the current complex in the
CWA, and seem to attempt to congeal the SW KS system into the current
one over the next several hours. Going with radar trends, expect a
decreasing trend in the west with eastern areas seeing the current
bands move through early this morning. A general downtrend in
activity is then expected into the afternoon with next better chance
for convection coming in the late evening and overnight as the upper
wave over Utah early this morning swings through. With persistent
but modest warm air advection into the region and outflow
boundaries, gravity waves, and other mesoscale forcing mechanisms
likely passing through, at least small precip chances exist
throughout the day and night. Elevated instability tonight looks
somewhat greater than today with a similar though more veered low
level jet. Along with PW values around 1.5", will again need to
watch for heavy rains, but confidence is too low to support a Flash
Flood Watch with wide spread in where and even if precip will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

By Friday morning the main mid/upper level trough stretches from
eastern WY up to MN, while several shortwaves swing over the central
and southern plains. These waves will likely dictate where showers
and storms develop and or track during the day Friday. A cold front
will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points
in from the south. Both the NAM and GFS are suggesting dew points
reach the mid to upper 60s with a few 70s possible. Decent lapse
rates in the southwest flow aloft yield cape on the order of
2500-3500 j/kg with little inhibition. The deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, and the vertical profile seems mostly unidirectional.
Given this type of environment both ahead and along the front do not
expect any supercells. If any of these waves or MCSs pass over
during the morning hours than subsidence could inhibit diurnal
development. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning
Friday evening and during the overnight. Showers and storms are
possible along the front, but the instability should be on the
decrease and shear remains low. So again do not expect any well
organized severe storms overnight. Also, the models are not in good
agreement on the 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes and directions, so not
sure if there will be any organized wind threat. Although, given the
cape there is a marginal risk for hail during the afternoon and
evening hours.

The front should clear the area by 12Z Saturday, but the problem is
the mid level trough is still back over central KS and eastern NE.
The trough is forecast to progress eastward during the day Saturday.
This along with 925 mb frontogenesis could provide enough lift
within some residual low level moisture for light post frontal
precip. Confidence in these precip chances are not high therefore
kept the area mostly under slight pops. Cooler and drier air moves
in on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Rockies. The models have now kept the energy that moves over
Saturday closed off over the southern MS valley preventing the ridge
from building too far north. Meanwhile more mid level troughing
moves over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies by mid week.
Southwest flow aloft will soon follow as more shortwaves begin to
drive the weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Precipitation should slowly subside over the next few-several
hours with wave pushing off to the ENE. Next best chance for
convection comes after 03Z with another complex of TSRA possibly
moving through from the west. Will maintain VCTS only at this
point given continued uncertainty.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KICT 281138
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. HIGH RESOLUTION AND
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STRUGGLING MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
MORNINGS WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IS RESULTANTLY
LOWER. APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SITES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER FLOW/WATER VAPOR
LOOP AND WEAK MODEL CONSUS SHUTS DOWN THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY MIDDAY. SO ANTICIPATING A LULL THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ROLLING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND AFFECTING ALL SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
-HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  40  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  40  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  80  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  90  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  90  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  90  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS63 KDDC 281108
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BY
LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TOWARDS EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF
ALL AGREE THAT LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PLACE THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADING THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS
AT 00Z SUNDAY INDICATED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND FAVOR A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR
20 KNOT RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN FALL BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER SUNSET. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, AND NAM IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND GCK
AND DDC BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AT HYS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  78  54 /  50  50  30  40
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  20  30
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  30  50
LBL  82  60  80  55 /  50  60  30  50
HYS  80  60  78  53 /  50  60  30  40
P28  80  65  79  58 /  50  60  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281108
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BY
LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TOWARDS EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF
ALL AGREE THAT LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PLACE THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADING THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS
AT 00Z SUNDAY INDICATED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND FAVOR A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR
20 KNOT RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN FALL BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER SUNSET. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, AND NAM IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND GCK
AND DDC BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AT HYS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  78  54 /  50  50  30  40
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  20  30
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  30  50
LBL  82  60  80  55 /  50  60  30  50
HYS  80  60  78  53 /  50  60  30  40
P28  80  65  79  58 /  50  60  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281108
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BY
LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TOWARDS EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF
ALL AGREE THAT LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PLACE THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADING THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS
AT 00Z SUNDAY INDICATED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND FAVOR A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR
20 KNOT RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN FALL BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER SUNSET. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, AND NAM IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND GCK
AND DDC BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AT HYS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  78  54 /  50  50  30  40
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  20  30
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  30  50
LBL  82  60  80  55 /  50  60  30  50
HYS  80  60  78  53 /  50  60  30  40
P28  80  65  79  58 /  50  60  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT




000
FXUS63 KDDC 281108
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
608 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BY
LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TOWARDS EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF
ALL AGREE THAT LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PLACE THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADING THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS
AT 00Z SUNDAY INDICATED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND FAVOR A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO NEAR
20 KNOT RANGE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN FALL BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER SUNSET. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
DDC AND GCK BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THURSDAY AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
KANSAS TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, AND NAM IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND GCK
AND DDC BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. AT HYS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  78  54 /  50  50  30  40
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  20  30
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  30  50
LBL  82  60  80  55 /  50  60  30  50
HYS  80  60  78  53 /  50  60  30  40
P28  80  65  79  58 /  50  60  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KGLD 281016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE MORNING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY PRODUCING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO/SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING)
WILL EMERGE OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS AROUND
18Z THEN EAST INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD
UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK
WARRANTED ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST AND SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF THE AREA WHERE THEY`RE AWAY FROM THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15-20KTS THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING
APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA LOOKS GOOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON WHERE DRYLINE SETS UP. WILL
AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WARMEST ACROSS FAR
EASTERN COLORADO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND DOWNWARD MOTION MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS THINKING THE MORNING
HOURS APPEAR TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE AREA. WITH BREEZY/NEAR BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INSTABILITY IS LESS THEN PRIOR DAYS
AND SEVERE THREAT MUCH LOWER IF AT ALL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID TO UPPER 70S
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S WEST TO
LOW 50S EAST.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS STABLE HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE NIGHT AS SFC SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

KGLD...LIFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 15Z IMPROVING
TO IFR FROM 16Z-17Z THEN MVFR 18Z-19Z WITH WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST 10KTS OR LESS. FROM 19Z-22Z MAY SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH BETTER CHANCES FROM 23Z-03Z
OR 04Z AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...INTERACTING WITH A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DRYLINE FEATURE.
ANY STORMS THAT MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL HAVE THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AROUND
05Z PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 11KTS EXPECTED AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS STRATUS AND IFR/VLIFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WONT LOWER CIGS TO
THESE CATEGORIES JUST YET BUT WILL HINT AT IT WITH THIS FORECAST.

KMCK...VLIFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 14Z WITH IFR
CIGS 15Z-18Z THEN MVFR CIGS 19Z-21Z. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
10KTS OR LESS. 22Z-00Z CIGS BORDERLINE MVFR CATEGORY WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12KTS. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE 01Z-06Z
TIMEFRAME WITH THE BEST CHANCE 02Z-05Z. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS. AFTER 07Z WINDS FROM
THE WEST/WEST NORTHWEST 10KTS OR LESS WITH VFR CIGS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KTOP 280856
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
356 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Convective complex that began over western Kansas this afternoon had
recent central portions of the state early this morning. System is
making decent eastward progress and duration of heavy and then
lighter precip are not long, helping keep heavy amounts in check.
Precip will likely be waning in next few hours and expect the Flash
Flood Watch to expire, if not be cancelled early. Another somewhat
stationary complex has taken shape over southwest Kansas over the
past few hours, perhaps from gravity wave from MCS to its south.
Even the rapidly updating models are struggling with these smaller
scale systems, leading to a rather low confidence forecast.
West-southwest flow remains aloft with at least three shortwave
troughs over the western states evident on water vapor imagery.

HRRR and RAP continue to be slow with the current complex in the
CWA, and seem to attempt to congeal the SW KS system into the current
one over the next several hours. Going with radar trends, expect a
decreasing trend in the west with eastern areas seeing the current
bands move through early this morning. A general downtrend in
activity is then expected into the afternoon with next better chance
for convection coming in the late evening and overnight as the upper
wave over Utah early this morning swings through. With persistent
but modest warm air advection into the region and outflow
boundaries, gravity waves, and other mesoscale forcing mechanisms
likely passing through, at least small precip chances exist
throughout the day and night. Elevated instability tonight looks
somewhat greater than today with a similar though more veered low
level jet. Along with PW values around 1.5", will again need to
watch for heavy rains, but confidence is too low to support a Flash
Flood Watch with wide spread in where and even if precip will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

By Friday morning the main mid/upper level trough stretches from
eastern WY up to MN, while several shortwaves swing over the central
and southern plains. These waves will likely dictate where showers
and storms develop and or track during the day Friday. A cold front
will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points
in from the south. Both the NAM and GFS are suggesting dew points
reach the mid to upper 60s with a few 70s possible. Decent lapse
rates in the southwest flow aloft yield cape on the order of
2500-3500 j/kg with little inhibition. The deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, and the vertical profile seems mostly unidirectional.
Given this type of environment both ahead and along the front do not
expect any supercells. If any of these waves or MCSs pass over
during the morning hours than subsidence could inhibit diurnal
development. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning
Friday evening and during the overnight. Showers and storms are
possible along the front, but the instability should be on the
decrease and shear remains low. So again do not expect any well
organized severe storms overnight. Also, the models are not in good
agreement on the 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes and directions, so not
sure if there will be any organized wind threat. Although, given the
cape there is a marginal risk for hail during the afternoon and
evening hours.

The front should clear the area by 12Z Saturday, but the problem is
the mid level trough is still back over central KS and eastern NE.
The trough is forecast to progress eastward during the day Saturday.
This along with 925 mb frontogenesis could provide enough lift
within some residual low level moisture for light post frontal
precip. Confidence in these precip chances are not high therefore
kept the area mostly under slight pops. Cooler and drier air moves
in on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Rockies. The models have now kept the energy that moves over
Saturday closed off over the southern MS valley preventing the ridge
from building too far north. Meanwhile more mid level troughing
moves over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies by mid week.
Southwest flow aloft will soon follow as more shortwaves begin to
drive the weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280856
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
356 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Convective complex that began over western Kansas this afternoon had
recent central portions of the state early this morning. System is
making decent eastward progress and duration of heavy and then
lighter precip are not long, helping keep heavy amounts in check.
Precip will likely be waning in next few hours and expect the Flash
Flood Watch to expire, if not be cancelled early. Another somewhat
stationary complex has taken shape over southwest Kansas over the
past few hours, perhaps from gravity wave from MCS to its south.
Even the rapidly updating models are struggling with these smaller
scale systems, leading to a rather low confidence forecast.
West-southwest flow remains aloft with at least three shortwave
troughs over the western states evident on water vapor imagery.

HRRR and RAP continue to be slow with the current complex in the
CWA, and seem to attempt to congeal the SW KS system into the current
one over the next several hours. Going with radar trends, expect a
decreasing trend in the west with eastern areas seeing the current
bands move through early this morning. A general downtrend in
activity is then expected into the afternoon with next better chance
for convection coming in the late evening and overnight as the upper
wave over Utah early this morning swings through. With persistent
but modest warm air advection into the region and outflow
boundaries, gravity waves, and other mesoscale forcing mechanisms
likely passing through, at least small precip chances exist
throughout the day and night. Elevated instability tonight looks
somewhat greater than today with a similar though more veered low
level jet. Along with PW values around 1.5", will again need to
watch for heavy rains, but confidence is too low to support a Flash
Flood Watch with wide spread in where and even if precip will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

By Friday morning the main mid/upper level trough stretches from
eastern WY up to MN, while several shortwaves swing over the central
and southern plains. These waves will likely dictate where showers
and storms develop and or track during the day Friday. A cold front
will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points
in from the south. Both the NAM and GFS are suggesting dew points
reach the mid to upper 60s with a few 70s possible. Decent lapse
rates in the southwest flow aloft yield cape on the order of
2500-3500 j/kg with little inhibition. The deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, and the vertical profile seems mostly unidirectional.
Given this type of environment both ahead and along the front do not
expect any supercells. If any of these waves or MCSs pass over
during the morning hours than subsidence could inhibit diurnal
development. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning
Friday evening and during the overnight. Showers and storms are
possible along the front, but the instability should be on the
decrease and shear remains low. So again do not expect any well
organized severe storms overnight. Also, the models are not in good
agreement on the 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes and directions, so not
sure if there will be any organized wind threat. Although, given the
cape there is a marginal risk for hail during the afternoon and
evening hours.

The front should clear the area by 12Z Saturday, but the problem is
the mid level trough is still back over central KS and eastern NE.
The trough is forecast to progress eastward during the day Saturday.
This along with 925 mb frontogenesis could provide enough lift
within some residual low level moisture for light post frontal
precip. Confidence in these precip chances are not high therefore
kept the area mostly under slight pops. Cooler and drier air moves
in on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Rockies. The models have now kept the energy that moves over
Saturday closed off over the southern MS valley preventing the ridge
from building too far north. Meanwhile more mid level troughing
moves over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies by mid week.
Southwest flow aloft will soon follow as more shortwaves begin to
drive the weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 280856
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
356 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Convective complex that began over western Kansas this afternoon had
recent central portions of the state early this morning. System is
making decent eastward progress and duration of heavy and then
lighter precip are not long, helping keep heavy amounts in check.
Precip will likely be waning in next few hours and expect the Flash
Flood Watch to expire, if not be cancelled early. Another somewhat
stationary complex has taken shape over southwest Kansas over the
past few hours, perhaps from gravity wave from MCS to its south.
Even the rapidly updating models are struggling with these smaller
scale systems, leading to a rather low confidence forecast.
West-southwest flow remains aloft with at least three shortwave
troughs over the western states evident on water vapor imagery.

HRRR and RAP continue to be slow with the current complex in the
CWA, and seem to attempt to congeal the SW KS system into the current
one over the next several hours. Going with radar trends, expect a
decreasing trend in the west with eastern areas seeing the current
bands move through early this morning. A general downtrend in
activity is then expected into the afternoon with next better chance
for convection coming in the late evening and overnight as the upper
wave over Utah early this morning swings through. With persistent
but modest warm air advection into the region and outflow
boundaries, gravity waves, and other mesoscale forcing mechanisms
likely passing through, at least small precip chances exist
throughout the day and night. Elevated instability tonight looks
somewhat greater than today with a similar though more veered low
level jet. Along with PW values around 1.5", will again need to
watch for heavy rains, but confidence is too low to support a Flash
Flood Watch with wide spread in where and even if precip will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

By Friday morning the main mid/upper level trough stretches from
eastern WY up to MN, while several shortwaves swing over the central
and southern plains. These waves will likely dictate where showers
and storms develop and or track during the day Friday. A cold front
will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points
in from the south. Both the NAM and GFS are suggesting dew points
reach the mid to upper 60s with a few 70s possible. Decent lapse
rates in the southwest flow aloft yield cape on the order of
2500-3500 j/kg with little inhibition. The deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, and the vertical profile seems mostly unidirectional.
Given this type of environment both ahead and along the front do not
expect any supercells. If any of these waves or MCSs pass over
during the morning hours than subsidence could inhibit diurnal
development. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning
Friday evening and during the overnight. Showers and storms are
possible along the front, but the instability should be on the
decrease and shear remains low. So again do not expect any well
organized severe storms overnight. Also, the models are not in good
agreement on the 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes and directions, so not
sure if there will be any organized wind threat. Although, given the
cape there is a marginal risk for hail during the afternoon and
evening hours.

The front should clear the area by 12Z Saturday, but the problem is
the mid level trough is still back over central KS and eastern NE.
The trough is forecast to progress eastward during the day Saturday.
This along with 925 mb frontogenesis could provide enough lift
within some residual low level moisture for light post frontal
precip. Confidence in these precip chances are not high therefore
kept the area mostly under slight pops. Cooler and drier air moves
in on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Rockies. The models have now kept the energy that moves over
Saturday closed off over the southern MS valley preventing the ridge
from building too far north. Meanwhile more mid level troughing
moves over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies by mid week.
Southwest flow aloft will soon follow as more shortwaves begin to
drive the weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280856
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
356 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

Convective complex that began over western Kansas this afternoon had
recent central portions of the state early this morning. System is
making decent eastward progress and duration of heavy and then
lighter precip are not long, helping keep heavy amounts in check.
Precip will likely be waning in next few hours and expect the Flash
Flood Watch to expire, if not be cancelled early. Another somewhat
stationary complex has taken shape over southwest Kansas over the
past few hours, perhaps from gravity wave from MCS to its south.
Even the rapidly updating models are struggling with these smaller
scale systems, leading to a rather low confidence forecast.
West-southwest flow remains aloft with at least three shortwave
troughs over the western states evident on water vapor imagery.

HRRR and RAP continue to be slow with the current complex in the
CWA, and seem to attempt to congeal the SW KS system into the current
one over the next several hours. Going with radar trends, expect a
decreasing trend in the west with eastern areas seeing the current
bands move through early this morning. A general downtrend in
activity is then expected into the afternoon with next better chance
for convection coming in the late evening and overnight as the upper
wave over Utah early this morning swings through. With persistent
but modest warm air advection into the region and outflow
boundaries, gravity waves, and other mesoscale forcing mechanisms
likely passing through, at least small precip chances exist
throughout the day and night. Elevated instability tonight looks
somewhat greater than today with a similar though more veered low
level jet. Along with PW values around 1.5", will again need to
watch for heavy rains, but confidence is too low to support a Flash
Flood Watch with wide spread in where and even if precip will occur.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

By Friday morning the main mid/upper level trough stretches from
eastern WY up to MN, while several shortwaves swing over the central
and southern plains. These waves will likely dictate where showers
and storms develop and or track during the day Friday. A cold front
will then approach the area from the west bringing higher dew points
in from the south. Both the NAM and GFS are suggesting dew points
reach the mid to upper 60s with a few 70s possible. Decent lapse
rates in the southwest flow aloft yield cape on the order of
2500-3500 j/kg with little inhibition. The deep layer shear is
around 20 kts, and the vertical profile seems mostly unidirectional.
Given this type of environment both ahead and along the front do not
expect any supercells. If any of these waves or MCSs pass over
during the morning hours than subsidence could inhibit diurnal
development. The cold front should begin to slide through beginning
Friday evening and during the overnight. Showers and storms are
possible along the front, but the instability should be on the
decrease and shear remains low. So again do not expect any well
organized severe storms overnight. Also, the models are not in good
agreement on the 0-3 km bulk shear magnitudes and directions, so not
sure if there will be any organized wind threat. Although, given the
cape there is a marginal risk for hail during the afternoon and
evening hours.

The front should clear the area by 12Z Saturday, but the problem is
the mid level trough is still back over central KS and eastern NE.
The trough is forecast to progress eastward during the day Saturday.
This along with 925 mb frontogenesis could provide enough lift
within some residual low level moisture for light post frontal
precip. Confidence in these precip chances are not high therefore
kept the area mostly under slight pops. Cooler and drier air moves
in on Sunday as an upper level ridge builds across the southern
Rockies. The models have now kept the energy that moves over
Saturday closed off over the southern MS valley preventing the ridge
from building too far north. Meanwhile more mid level troughing
moves over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies by mid week.
Southwest flow aloft will soon follow as more shortwaves begin to
drive the weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KICT 280852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
CONVECTION. STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
REGENERATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION
WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU
GETTING IT TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT
LEAST OFF AND ON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  50  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  50  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  60  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  60  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  60  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
CONVECTION. STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
REGENERATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION
WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU
GETTING IT TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT
LEAST OFF AND ON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  50  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  50  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  60  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  60  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  60  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
CONVECTION. STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
REGENERATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION
WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU
GETTING IT TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT
LEAST OFF AND ON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  50  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  50  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  60  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  60  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  60  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 280852
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SUMMARY: A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER WEATHER FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.

CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY...WITH CURRENTLY MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS CORRIDOR...AND ANOTHER IS
OVER THE RED RIVER REGION OF SOUTHWEST OK/NORTHERN TX. A BACK-
BUILDING MCS IS CURRENTLY FESTERING OVER SOUTHWEST KS. BEST GUESS
AT THIS POINT IS CURRENT MCS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 7 AM. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED 900-800MB
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THINKING OFF- AND-ON
ACTIVITY COULD FESTER OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING IN WAKE OF THIS CURRENT MCS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK IN THE VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO
INITIATE A BIT EARLIER TODAY GIVEN EARLIER SHORTWAVE TIMING.
REGARDLESS...AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EAST AND
MERGE/CLUSTER...ANOTHER COMPLEX OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
KS....HIGHEST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS WHERE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

AFTER A POSSIBLE BREAK IN THE ACTION FRIDAY MORNING...A FINAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AMIDST INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
EAST/SOUTHEAST KS SATURDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID- AMERICA. AFTER A FEW
COOLER DAYS SAT- SUN...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME READINGS LIKELY CLIMBING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE-WED...MAYBE EVEN APPROACHING 90F WEST OF
I-135. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY CLOSED LOW...MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY MID-LATE WEEK. THIS SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN FAVORS INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CENTRAL KS ON WEST/NORTHWARD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
CONVECTION. STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
REGENERATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION
WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU
GETTING IT TOWARDS MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT
LEAST OFF AND ON. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE DURING THE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
GO...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT MADE AN EXCELLENT DECISION TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE THROUGH FRIDAY EARLY EVENING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO START THE WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS NOW INSTEAD
OF AT 7 AM...AND TO EXTEND THE WATCH FOR MAINLY SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UNOFFICIALLY AS OF THIS WRITING...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS
ACCUMULATED 11.69 INCHES...2ND ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889)...SURPASSING
11.22 INCHES IN MAY 1935. 1ST PLACE IS 13.14 INCHES IN MAY 2008.
WITH A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...THIS RECORD MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA HAS STRONG
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 5 WETTEST MAY`S..AND CHANUTE HAS
POTENTIAL TO BREAK INTO THE TOP 10.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  78  61 /  50  60  60  60
HUTCHINSON      78  64  78  59 /  40  60  60  50
NEWTON          77  64  76  59 /  50  60  60  60
ELDORADO        78  65  77  61 /  50  60  60  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   79  66  79  62 /  50  60  60  60
RUSSELL         79  61  78  55 /  50  60  50  40
GREAT BEND      79  62  78  56 /  50  60  50  40
SALINA          79  64  78  58 /  50  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       78  64  77  58 /  50  60  60  50
COFFEYVILLE     80  67  79  64 /  60  50  60  70
CHANUTE         79  66  78  64 /  60  50  60  70
IOLA            79  66  78  63 /  60  50  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    80  67  78  64 /  60  50  60  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY...AND THE AREA OF STABLE WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY.  AS A RESULT...WARM TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE FEATURE LESSENS IN AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT WITH
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL GENERALLY AGREE WITH
HEIGHT FALL POSITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW.  THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH COULD SPARK
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR EASTERN
COLORADO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. PLENTY OF CAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG COULD POTENTIALLY MEAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG JET SUPPORT
AT THE MID OR LOWER LEVELS...SO BULK SHEAR LACKS AT THE MOMENT. DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO TAKE A NEGATIVE TILT ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000
J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO MAKE SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY...LACK OF A STRONG JET WILL LEAVE STRONG SHEAR
VALUES ABSENT. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MANY LOCATIONS PROVIDE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BY
LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TOWARDS EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF
ALL AGREE THAT LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PLACE THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADING THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS
AT 00Z SUNDAY INDICATED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND FAVOR A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BY
LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TOWARDS EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF
ALL AGREE THAT LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PLACE THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADING THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS
AT 00Z SUNDAY INDICATED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND FAVOR A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280758
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND BY
LATE DAY THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM
EASTERN KANSAS TO THE THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TOWARDS EVENING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY THE NAM, GFS AND ECMWF
ALL AGREE THAT LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL PLACE THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR LATE DAY STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS AND THEN SPREADING THIS PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY AT 00Z SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AT THE
SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THE SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE NAM AND GFS
AT 00Z SUNDAY INDICATED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. GIVEN MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MIX DOWN
TEMPERATURES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AND FAVOR A WARMING TREND
THROUGH MID WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280745
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 08Z. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 08Z. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 08Z. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 280740
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
240 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 700 MB SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER THROUGH TOMORROW. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS MORNING SHIFTING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT THIS MORNING THEN BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 08Z. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  60  77  55 /  50  50  50  50
GCK  83  57  79  53 /  50  60  30  40
EHA  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  40  40
LBL  82  60  80  56 /  50  60  40  50
HYS  80  60  78  54 /  50  60  50  40
P28  80  65  78  59 /  50  60  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KICT 280455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE CONVECTION.
STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH REGENERATION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU GETTING IT TOWARDS
MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT LEAST OFF AND ON.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE DURING THE
DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  79  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  70  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  60  50  50  60
ELDORADO        64  79  66  78 /  60  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  78  67  78 /  60  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  80  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      62  78  63  78 /  80  50  60  50
SALINA          64  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     65  79  68  78 /  40  50  40  70
CHANUTE         64  79  67  78 /  40  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  40  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 280455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE CONVECTION.
STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF 5Z AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 6Z AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH REGENERATION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE KEPT CONVECTION WITH VCTS OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS...WITH KCNU GETTING IT TOWARDS
MORNING. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING AND THEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT LEAST OFF AND ON.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE DURING THE
DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  79  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  70  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  60  50  50  60
ELDORADO        64  79  66  78 /  60  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  78  67  78 /  60  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  80  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      62  78  63  78 /  80  50  60  50
SALINA          64  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     65  79  68  78 /  40  50  40  70
CHANUTE         64  79  67  78 /  40  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  40  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 280443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is forecast to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300MB mean wind is ENE at around 25
KTS while Corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the forecast is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06Z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonight`s evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
significant  precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ008-009-020>022-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is forecast to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300MB mean wind is ENE at around 25
KTS while Corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the forecast is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06Z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonight`s evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
significant  precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ008-009-020>022-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is forecast to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300MB mean wind is ENE at around 25
KTS while Corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the forecast is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06Z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonight`s evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
significant  precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ008-009-020>022-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is forecast to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300MB mean wind is ENE at around 25
KTS while Corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the forecast is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06Z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonight`s evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
significant  precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ008-009-020>022-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 280443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is forecast to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300MB mean wind is ENE at around 25
KTS while Corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the forecast is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06Z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonight`s evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
significant  precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Confidence in timing precip at the terminals remains low as models
show varying solutions. In general have gone with the idea that
after the initial convection slowly moves in, storms could fall
apart mid to late morning with the weakening of the low level jet
and initial vort max passing northeast. Then there may be another
chance for scattered TS during the peak heating of the day.
Continued with VFR CIGS, but feel like MVFR VSBY will occur with
the precip. If intensity remains high, IFR VSBY could occur, but
instability is weaker across northeast KS so I expect an overall
weakening trend as storms move northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ008-009-020>022-
034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KGLD 280422
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280422
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280422
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280422
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280422
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KGLD 280148
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 748 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH. WILL BE UPDATING GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS AND POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280013
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
713 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 08Z. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  61  77 /  80  60  70  50
GCK  59  81  58  79 /  60  40  50  30
EHA  58  80  56  79 /  40  30  30  40
LBL  60  81  60  80 /  50  40  50  40
HYS  61  79  60  78 /  60  60  70  50
P28  64  79  65  78 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 280013
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
713 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 08Z. ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  80  61  77 /  80  60  70  50
GCK  59  81  58  79 /  60  40  50  30
EHA  58  80  56  79 /  40  30  30  40
LBL  60  81  60  80 /  50  40  50  40
HYS  61  79  60  78 /  60  60  70  50
P28  64  79  65  78 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ065-066-078>081-
088>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...FINCH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280002
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER



000
FXUS63 KGLD 280002
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER




000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 272336
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. THE FIRST CHANCES WILL BE
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANCES FOR NOW.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR BRIEFLY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE LONGTERM
IFR AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER AT
SOME TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 272257
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is forecast to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300MB mean wind is ENE at around 25
KTS while Corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the forecast is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06Z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonight`s evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
significant  precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Models continue to show better moisture advecting north overnight
with possible weak vort max propagating east across the state.
Because f this there is a chance for thunderstorms late. Have
included a tempo for TS basing timing on the hires models.
Although confidence is low since forcing appears to be weak and
precip could be scattered. Because of this have maintained a VFR
forecast at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KTOP 272257
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is forecast to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300MB mean wind is ENE at around 25
KTS while Corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the forecast is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06Z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonight`s evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
significant  precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Models continue to show better moisture advecting north overnight
with possible weak vort max propagating east across the state.
Because f this there is a chance for thunderstorms late. Have
included a tempo for TS basing timing on the hires models.
Although confidence is low since forcing appears to be weak and
precip could be scattered. Because of this have maintained a VFR
forecast at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272257
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is forecast to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300MB mean wind is ENE at around 25
KTS while Corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the forecast is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06Z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonight`s evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
significant  precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Models continue to show better moisture advecting north overnight
with possible weak vort max propagating east across the state.
Because f this there is a chance for thunderstorms late. Have
included a tempo for TS basing timing on the hires models.
Although confidence is low since forcing appears to be weak and
precip could be scattered. Because of this have maintained a VFR
forecast at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 272257
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19Z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Theta-e ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is forecast to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300MB mean wind is ENE at around 25
KTS while Corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the forecast is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06Z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonight`s evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
significant  precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Models continue to show better moisture advecting north overnight
with possible weak vort max propagating east across the state.
Because f this there is a chance for thunderstorms late. Have
included a tempo for TS basing timing on the hires models.
Although confidence is low since forcing appears to be weak and
precip could be scattered. Because of this have maintained a VFR
forecast at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR KSZ008-009-
020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KGLD 272127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 272127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
327 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KTOP 272049
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
349 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Forecast focus on rainfall potential tonight/Thursday. Water vapor
loop shows two waves moving into/across KS with the larger upper
low still located well west across ID. The 19z sfc map shows low
pressure across southwest KS with a warm front located from Great
Bend to just north of Wichita east toward Chanute. The waves are
helping convection to develop within the instability axis across
western KS/NE and eastern CO. These storms are expected to congeal
into a couple of MCS complexes later tonight bringing the risk for
additional heavy rains to some parts of the area.

Main question is where the heaviest rains may fall overnight
tonight. Analysis of 850mb Thetae ridge/LLJ axis and evolution of
MUCAPE overnight suggests that persistent moisture transport
should set up across western KS into NE or just upwind of the
western parts of the CWA tonight. Although CAPE values are not
impressive this evening MUCAPE is fcst to increase to
1000-2000j/kg per the NAM. 850-300mb mean wind is ENE at around 25
kts while corfidi vectors suggest an ESE component owing to the
LLJ. Difficult part of the fcst is trying to discern exact
location of greatest rainfall risk and at this time it would
appear that one complex may develop this evening and move ESE
across central KS roughly along/south of I-70 along the sfc-850mb
front. A secondary complex may develop later toward 06z further
north on the nose of the 40kt LLJ and its this area that is of
concern for heavy rains across parts of central KS overnight. Have
decided to highlight the potential for heavy rains with a flood
watch that is limited in space and time given uncertainties not
only with tonights evolution but also the potential impact on
subsequent storm development and evolution later tomorrow through
Friday. Simply put there is a risk for excessive rains beginning
tonight and that could last through Friday evening but confidence
in where is low for now. Would expect morning convection on
Thursday to wane with time as another round of storms could
develop across eastern CO and W KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Weak shortwave troughs in west-southwesterly flow aloft move through
KS for Thursday night into Friday.  Short range models differ on
timing of these impulses so timing of best precip chances is hard to
pin down.  However, given antecedent soil moisture and any additional
precip that develops tonight and Thursday, areas of heavy rain will
be a concern.  Finally on Friday afternoon and Friday night,
stronger upper trough and associated cold front move through, ending
sig precip chances for much of the area, with the only potential of
light showers to linger into Saturday morning in the east central.

Saturday through Wednesday...After system moves through Friday
night, eastern KS is in weak northwest flow aloft just to east of
upper ridge axis.  As upper ridge moves slowly east, benign weather
continues until at least Tuesday night, while low-level temps
gradually warm.  Medium range models are in decent agreement with
this scenario and the area should have a good chance to dry out for
awhile.  12Z ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave trough across Nebraska
late Tuesday night, flattening the ridge, and would lead to some
precip chances for late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  GFS and
GFSEnsemble on the other hand would keep things dry until Wednesday
night at least.  Given previous run of ECMWF was in better agreement
with GFS runs, have left the middle of next week dry at this time.
Max temps should warm from the low 70s over the weekend into the
lower 80s toward the middle of the week.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Conditions are expected to remain VFR the majority of the period,
until ceilings begin to lower to MVFR late tonight/tomorrow
morning.  There is a large amount of uncertainty with timing and how
far a complex of storms will move east; therefore, have mentioned
VCTS at MHK after 06Z, although TOP/FOE may need to be adjusted with
this mention later.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
morning FOR KSZ008-009-020>022-034>037.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KICT 272014
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...BEFORE DRIER AIR AND WARMER TEMPS MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO FESTER FOR AREAS IN
CENTRAL KS...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 56.  AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY
PROGRESSES...HI-RES SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS ALONG I-70 BUT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO NE KS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY
LINE...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR KDDC. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS.  SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY PROPAGATE INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
THIS EVENING. AS THE STORMS MARCH FURTHER EAST...MLCAPE VALUES
REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG MAY LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAKING IT
INTO CENTRAL KS OR POSSIBLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS. PRECIP WATER VALUES
AROUND 150% OF NORMAL SUGGESTS SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
135 FOR TONIGHT.

SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ON HOW FAR EAST
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT TONIGHT.  STORMS MAY ACTUALLY OUTRUN THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE EAST WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. BUT THEY COULD MAKE
IT ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THINK
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MAKE IT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THU MORNING.

INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH
PRECIP WATER VALUES.  COULD SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU. SO HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WHOLE AREA FOR THU. ALSO COULD SEE SOME STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS.

PLAN ON KEEPING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRI AS WELL...AS A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS A RATHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS KS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS...AS STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THIS AREA...UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO THIS AREA.  WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FRI EVENING...AS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REALLY ENHANCE THE FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE STORMS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO OK EARLY ON SAT...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME LINGERING STORMS OVER SE KS FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME COOLER DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION FOR SAT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MUCH NEEDED DRYING TREND FOR MOST OF
THE PLAINS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK
TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP FOR
TUE AND WED.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE MORE STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY.

JAKUB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INITIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT. PLAN ON EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THU INTO FRI FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS AND SWOLLEN CREEKS/STREAMS...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA RIVERS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  79  66  79 /  50  50  50  60
HUTCHINSON      64  79  65  79 /  60  50  60  60
NEWTON          64  77  65  77 /  50  50  50  60
ELDORADO        65  79  66  78 /  40  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  78  67  78 /  40  50  50  60
RUSSELL         63  80  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
GREAT BEND      64  78  63  78 /  70  50  60  50
SALINA          65  80  66  79 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       64  78  65  78 /  60  50  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70
CHANUTE         65  79  67  78 /  30  50  40  70
IOLA            64  79  67  77 /  30  50  40  70
PARSONS-KPPF    65  79  68  78 /  30  50  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ053-069>072-093>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271825
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  61  80  61 /  50  60  60  70
GCK  82  59  81  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  58  80  56 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  85  60  81  60 /  40  50  40  50
HYS  80  61  79  60 /  50  60  60  70
P28  82  64  79  65 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271825
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  61  80  61 /  50  60  60  70
GCK  82  59  81  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  58  80  56 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  85  60  81  60 /  40  50  40  50
HYS  80  61  79  60 /  50  60  60  70
P28  82  64  79  65 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271825
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  61  80  61 /  50  60  60  70
GCK  82  59  81  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  58  80  56 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  85  60  81  60 /  40  50  40  50
HYS  80  61  79  60 /  50  60  60  70
P28  82  64  79  65 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271825
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY
PROGRESSES TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING ON FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
REDEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL OF COURSE DEPEND ON AIRMASS
RECOVERY FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
ARE CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT
SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY
REACH NEAR 70, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A WARMING
TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND SOME CHANCE FOR LATE DAY AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE BUT IT`S NOT LOOKING LIKE A
TORNADIC PATTERN SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO STAY
NORTH OF KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD UP BY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AND SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  61  80  61 /  50  60  60  70
GCK  82  59  81  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  58  80  56 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  85  60  81  60 /  40  50  40  50
HYS  80  61  79  60 /  50  60  60  70
P28  82  64  79  65 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271742
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR OUT STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A DECAYING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AS A RESULT, POPS WERE MAINTAINED,
INCREASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AS A POTENTIAL WX IMPACT. THE EC MOS WAS
USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND
PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME TYPE OF A REPEAT EVENT IS PROBABLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OBVIOUSLY
CANNOT BE KNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WITH
THE VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL EXIST SHOULD INDUCE
CONVECTION.

A SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCES  THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
BRINGING A MARKED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND RESULTANT LOWER
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS WELL AS MUCH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS RAMP UP THE
DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  61  80  61 /  50  60  60  70
GCK  82  59  81  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  58  80  56 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  85  60  81  60 /  40  50  40  50
HYS  80  61  79  60 /  50  60  60  70
P28  82  64  79  65 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 271742
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TONIGHT:

IT IS STILL UNCLEAR OUT STORM EVOLUTION WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT.
TOOK SOME INPUT FROM THE HRRR AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE WRF-ARW FOR
A BASELINE OF GRID PRODUCTS. THINK CONVECTION WILL FIRE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 83 AND HIGHWAY 283. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH DOWN BY LIBERAL, MEADE, AND ULYSSES AS THE WINDS ARE MORE
BACKED HERE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT.
CAPE WILL BE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF SHEAR.
THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE HAS GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR, HOWEVER, SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. THINK THE MAIN THREATS FOR THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE, HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE
INITIAL ONSET OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR HAS THE STORMS EVOLVING INTO
A MESSY CLUSTER LATER TONIGHT, SO THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LESS OF A TORNADO THREAT FOR AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE EVENT, SO A FEW
INCHES OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AREAS THAT ARE
UNDERNEATH TRAINING STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW:

THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
HOWEVER, SHEAR TOMORROW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER. SO STORM TYPES
MAY BE MORE ALONG THE LINE OF MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL, WIND, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LESS
IMPRESSIVE AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BACK WITH HEIGHT, SO A MORE MESSY
STORM TYPE IS MORE LIKELY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A DECAYING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AS A RESULT, POPS WERE MAINTAINED,
INCREASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AS A POTENTIAL WX IMPACT. THE EC MOS WAS
USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND
PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME TYPE OF A REPEAT EVENT IS PROBABLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OBVIOUSLY
CANNOT BE KNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WITH
THE VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL EXIST SHOULD INDUCE
CONVECTION.

A SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCES  THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
BRINGING A MARKED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND RESULTANT LOWER
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS WELL AS MUCH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS RAMP UP THE
DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  61  80  61 /  50  60  60  70
GCK  82  59  81  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  58  80  56 /  40  40  30  30
LBL  85  60  81  60 /  40  50  40  50
HYS  80  61  79  60 /  50  60  60  70
P28  82  64  79  65 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KGLD 271740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

FOR KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS
10-20KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY...VCTS WITH BKN040-050 GIVING WAY TO 3SM
IN TSRA THRU 03Z...THEN MIX OF MVFR/VFR SKIES AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD. SOME FOG AFT 09Z POSSIBLE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SW AROUND 10KTS BY 09Z.

FOR KMCK...MIX OF VFR/MVFR SKY CONDITIONS WITH BKN040-050 WITH 3SM
IN TSRA BR THRU 05Z THURSDAY...THEN 3-6SM BR AND BKN015-030 THRU
MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING BACK TO VFR. SE WINDS
10-20KTS BACKING TO THE ESE 10KTS BY 08Z...THEN SOUTH 10KTS BY
15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN




000
FXUS63 KICT 271736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE MORE STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY.

JAKUB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 271736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE MORE STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY.

JAKUB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 271736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE MORE STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY.

JAKUB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 271736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OTHERWISE MORE STORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE STORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TODAY.

JAKUB

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 271719
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1219 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one
minor wave working its way east into Colorado. Convection continues
to meander east out of eastern Colorado but appears to be on a slow
weakening trend. Weak surface high was centered over southwest
Nebraska with modest south winds to its southwest giving minor aid
to the SW KS precip. Still some mid cloud in the area with nearby
radars showing some lower level mixing behind the old system. Hard
to rule out patchy fog with the ground obviously wet and will
monitor.

South to southeast winds slowly return today, and with increasing
deep layer moisture, the upstream convection could maintain itself
into the local area late this morning into the early afternoon, but
it will likely outrun support by mid afternoon so have precip
mention limited to western locations today. The next upper wave
meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for
convection to re-fire there this afternoon. Overnight 850mb winds
continue from the south but only reach around 20kt, but will likely
be enough to maintain convection into central and eastern Kansas
tonight as PW values reach 1.5". Have kept a mid-range PoP at this
point with uncertainties on location and coverage. The modest inflow
will keep effective shear below 30kt and along with elevated CAPE
peaking around 500 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

On Thursday morning southwest flow aloft remains in place with a
plume of steep mid level lapse rates spreading eastward over the
plains. Models are hinting at convection somewhere over western and
central KS early Thursday morning. This complex could linger during
the late morning hours as it most likely weakens. The southwest flow
aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to
upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Cape during the day Thursday
could range between 2500-3500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is less
impressive, and should not support any organized severe convection.
This type of environment could poss a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Most of models develop convection driven by weak
mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus
is not obvious at this point. If convection the previous night
leaves an outflow boundary around it could be the focus if it
doesn`t mix out. There could be a break Thursday night before the
next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage. This
front will be driven by a shortwave that tracks over the northern
plains and upper Midwest. There are a few timing issues among the
models, but consensus is that the front slides through the area
Friday night. Several shortwaves appear to progress over the
region during the day Friday possibly supporting storms out ahead
of the front in the warm sector. Instability will continue to be
modest although deep layer shear again is not impressive. With the
front south of the area by this weekend drier air and cooler
temperatures could make for pleasant conditions with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday morning could be chilly with low
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The region
will then have time to dry out as the pattern begins to relax
through mid week. A mid level ridge builds into the southern
Rockies/plains, and high temperatures rebound back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Conditions are expected to remain VFR the majority of the period,
until ceilings begin to lower to MVFR late tonight/tomorrow
morning.  There is a large amount of uncertainty with timing and how
far a complex of storms will move east; therefore, have mentioned
VCTS at MHK after 06Z, although TOP/FOE may need to be adjusted with
this mention later.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271719
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1219 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one
minor wave working its way east into Colorado. Convection continues
to meander east out of eastern Colorado but appears to be on a slow
weakening trend. Weak surface high was centered over southwest
Nebraska with modest south winds to its southwest giving minor aid
to the SW KS precip. Still some mid cloud in the area with nearby
radars showing some lower level mixing behind the old system. Hard
to rule out patchy fog with the ground obviously wet and will
monitor.

South to southeast winds slowly return today, and with increasing
deep layer moisture, the upstream convection could maintain itself
into the local area late this morning into the early afternoon, but
it will likely outrun support by mid afternoon so have precip
mention limited to western locations today. The next upper wave
meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for
convection to re-fire there this afternoon. Overnight 850mb winds
continue from the south but only reach around 20kt, but will likely
be enough to maintain convection into central and eastern Kansas
tonight as PW values reach 1.5". Have kept a mid-range PoP at this
point with uncertainties on location and coverage. The modest inflow
will keep effective shear below 30kt and along with elevated CAPE
peaking around 500 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

On Thursday morning southwest flow aloft remains in place with a
plume of steep mid level lapse rates spreading eastward over the
plains. Models are hinting at convection somewhere over western and
central KS early Thursday morning. This complex could linger during
the late morning hours as it most likely weakens. The southwest flow
aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to
upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Cape during the day Thursday
could range between 2500-3500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is less
impressive, and should not support any organized severe convection.
This type of environment could poss a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Most of models develop convection driven by weak
mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus
is not obvious at this point. If convection the previous night
leaves an outflow boundary around it could be the focus if it
doesn`t mix out. There could be a break Thursday night before the
next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage. This
front will be driven by a shortwave that tracks over the northern
plains and upper Midwest. There are a few timing issues among the
models, but consensus is that the front slides through the area
Friday night. Several shortwaves appear to progress over the
region during the day Friday possibly supporting storms out ahead
of the front in the warm sector. Instability will continue to be
modest although deep layer shear again is not impressive. With the
front south of the area by this weekend drier air and cooler
temperatures could make for pleasant conditions with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday morning could be chilly with low
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The region
will then have time to dry out as the pattern begins to relax
through mid week. A mid level ridge builds into the southern
Rockies/plains, and high temperatures rebound back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Conditions are expected to remain VFR the majority of the period,
until ceilings begin to lower to MVFR late tonight/tomorrow
morning.  There is a large amount of uncertainty with timing and how
far a complex of storms will move east; therefore, have mentioned
VCTS at MHK after 06Z, although TOP/FOE may need to be adjusted with
this mention later.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271719
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1219 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one
minor wave working its way east into Colorado. Convection continues
to meander east out of eastern Colorado but appears to be on a slow
weakening trend. Weak surface high was centered over southwest
Nebraska with modest south winds to its southwest giving minor aid
to the SW KS precip. Still some mid cloud in the area with nearby
radars showing some lower level mixing behind the old system. Hard
to rule out patchy fog with the ground obviously wet and will
monitor.

South to southeast winds slowly return today, and with increasing
deep layer moisture, the upstream convection could maintain itself
into the local area late this morning into the early afternoon, but
it will likely outrun support by mid afternoon so have precip
mention limited to western locations today. The next upper wave
meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for
convection to re-fire there this afternoon. Overnight 850mb winds
continue from the south but only reach around 20kt, but will likely
be enough to maintain convection into central and eastern Kansas
tonight as PW values reach 1.5". Have kept a mid-range PoP at this
point with uncertainties on location and coverage. The modest inflow
will keep effective shear below 30kt and along with elevated CAPE
peaking around 500 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

On Thursday morning southwest flow aloft remains in place with a
plume of steep mid level lapse rates spreading eastward over the
plains. Models are hinting at convection somewhere over western and
central KS early Thursday morning. This complex could linger during
the late morning hours as it most likely weakens. The southwest flow
aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to
upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Cape during the day Thursday
could range between 2500-3500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is less
impressive, and should not support any organized severe convection.
This type of environment could poss a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Most of models develop convection driven by weak
mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus
is not obvious at this point. If convection the previous night
leaves an outflow boundary around it could be the focus if it
doesn`t mix out. There could be a break Thursday night before the
next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage. This
front will be driven by a shortwave that tracks over the northern
plains and upper Midwest. There are a few timing issues among the
models, but consensus is that the front slides through the area
Friday night. Several shortwaves appear to progress over the
region during the day Friday possibly supporting storms out ahead
of the front in the warm sector. Instability will continue to be
modest although deep layer shear again is not impressive. With the
front south of the area by this weekend drier air and cooler
temperatures could make for pleasant conditions with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday morning could be chilly with low
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The region
will then have time to dry out as the pattern begins to relax
through mid week. A mid level ridge builds into the southern
Rockies/plains, and high temperatures rebound back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Conditions are expected to remain VFR the majority of the period,
until ceilings begin to lower to MVFR late tonight/tomorrow
morning.  There is a large amount of uncertainty with timing and how
far a complex of storms will move east; therefore, have mentioned
VCTS at MHK after 06Z, although TOP/FOE may need to be adjusted with
this mention later.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KTOP 271719
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1219 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one
minor wave working its way east into Colorado. Convection continues
to meander east out of eastern Colorado but appears to be on a slow
weakening trend. Weak surface high was centered over southwest
Nebraska with modest south winds to its southwest giving minor aid
to the SW KS precip. Still some mid cloud in the area with nearby
radars showing some lower level mixing behind the old system. Hard
to rule out patchy fog with the ground obviously wet and will
monitor.

South to southeast winds slowly return today, and with increasing
deep layer moisture, the upstream convection could maintain itself
into the local area late this morning into the early afternoon, but
it will likely outrun support by mid afternoon so have precip
mention limited to western locations today. The next upper wave
meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for
convection to re-fire there this afternoon. Overnight 850mb winds
continue from the south but only reach around 20kt, but will likely
be enough to maintain convection into central and eastern Kansas
tonight as PW values reach 1.5". Have kept a mid-range PoP at this
point with uncertainties on location and coverage. The modest inflow
will keep effective shear below 30kt and along with elevated CAPE
peaking around 500 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

On Thursday morning southwest flow aloft remains in place with a
plume of steep mid level lapse rates spreading eastward over the
plains. Models are hinting at convection somewhere over western and
central KS early Thursday morning. This complex could linger during
the late morning hours as it most likely weakens. The southwest flow
aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to
upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Cape during the day Thursday
could range between 2500-3500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is less
impressive, and should not support any organized severe convection.
This type of environment could poss a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Most of models develop convection driven by weak
mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus
is not obvious at this point. If convection the previous night
leaves an outflow boundary around it could be the focus if it
doesn`t mix out. There could be a break Thursday night before the
next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage. This
front will be driven by a shortwave that tracks over the northern
plains and upper Midwest. There are a few timing issues among the
models, but consensus is that the front slides through the area
Friday night. Several shortwaves appear to progress over the
region during the day Friday possibly supporting storms out ahead
of the front in the warm sector. Instability will continue to be
modest although deep layer shear again is not impressive. With the
front south of the area by this weekend drier air and cooler
temperatures could make for pleasant conditions with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday morning could be chilly with low
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The region
will then have time to dry out as the pattern begins to relax
through mid week. A mid level ridge builds into the southern
Rockies/plains, and high temperatures rebound back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Conditions are expected to remain VFR the majority of the period,
until ceilings begin to lower to MVFR late tonight/tomorrow
morning.  There is a large amount of uncertainty with timing and how
far a complex of storms will move east; therefore, have mentioned
VCTS at MHK after 06Z, although TOP/FOE may need to be adjusted with
this mention later.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller







000
FXUS63 KGLD 271706
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 271706
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 271706
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 271706
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1106 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

COMPLETED AN UPDATE EARLIER. HAD MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 19Z. QUESTIONS
THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION FIRE.
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR HINTING AT AN AREA REDEVELOPING AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE.

THE NAM AND RAP AND LARGER SCALE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE MAIN AREA
OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. THIS MAKES SENSE SINCE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE NEAR THAT AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME. SO ADJUST THE HIGHER POPS IN THIS AREA.

SPEED SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST BUT WILL HAVE GOOD DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THAT AND THE GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...GREATEST RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM QUINTER TO
COLBY TO GOODLAND TO FLAGLER.

PER THE LATEST TRENDS...ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY SETTING UP A DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK
UP INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE MOISTURE REACHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AFFECTING
INSTABILITY PRESENT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN
THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, INCLUDING A 30 TO 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER 70S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WETTER GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A DECAYING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AS A RESULT, POPS WERE MAINTAINED,
INCREASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AS A POTENTIAL WX IMPACT. THE EC MOS WAS
USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND
PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME TYPE OF A REPEAT EVENT IS PROBABLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OBVIOUSLY
CANNOT BE KNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WITH
THE VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL EXIST SHOULD INDUCE
CONVECTION.

A SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCES  THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
BRINGING A MARKED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND RESULTANT LOWER
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS WELL AS MUCH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS RAMP UP THE
DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  62  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
GCK  82  60  78  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  60  80  56 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  85  61  81  60 /  40  60  40  50
HYS  80  63  77  60 /  60  70  50  60
P28  82  64  80  65 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 271700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY SETTING UP A DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK
UP INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE MOISTURE REACHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AFFECTING
INSTABILITY PRESENT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN
THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, INCLUDING A 30 TO 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER 70S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WETTER GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A DECAYING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AS A RESULT, POPS WERE MAINTAINED,
INCREASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AS A POTENTIAL WX IMPACT. THE EC MOS WAS
USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND
PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME TYPE OF A REPEAT EVENT IS PROBABLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OBVIOUSLY
CANNOT BE KNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WITH
THE VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL EXIST SHOULD INDUCE
CONVECTION.

A SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCES  THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
BRINGING A MARKED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND RESULTANT LOWER
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS WELL AS MUCH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS RAMP UP THE
DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT
A LOCALLY SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND PROVIDE REDUCED CIGS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
TIMING OR LOCATION. WILL CONTINUE WITH TSRA/CB GROUPS FOR THIS
EVENING FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  62  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
GCK  82  60  78  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  60  80  56 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  85  61  81  60 /  40  60  40  50
HYS  80  63  77  60 /  60  70  50  60
P28  82  64  80  65 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KICT 271652
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT ONE MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHICH IS DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE HEATING OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A MCV
WAS LOCATED NEAR PRATT,KS AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND MCV MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD
SPARK OFF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE EXPECTING MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED COVERAGE TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 271652
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT ONE MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHICH IS DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE HEATING OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A MCV
WAS LOCATED NEAR PRATT,KS AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND MCV MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD
SPARK OFF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE EXPECTING MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED COVERAGE TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 271200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 271200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 271200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 271200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
700 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 271124
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one
minor wave working its way east into Colorado. Convection continues
to meander east out of eastern Colorado but appears to be on a slow
weakening trend. Weak surface high was centered over southwest
Nebraska with modest south winds to its southwest giving minor aid
to the SW KS precip. Still some mid cloud in the area with nearby
radars showing some lower level mixing behind the old system. Hard
to rule out patchy fog with the ground obviously wet and will
monitor.

South to southeast winds slowly return today, and with increasing
deep layer moisture, the upstream convection could maintain itself
into the local area late this morning into the early afternoon, but
it will likely outrun support by mid afternoon so have precip
mention limited to western locations today. The next upper wave
meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for
convection to re-fire there this afternoon. Overnight 850mb winds
continue from the south but only reach around 20kt, but will likely
be enough to maintain convection into central and eastern Kansas
tonight as PW values reach 1.5". Have kept a mid-range PoP at this
point with uncertainties on location and coverage. The modest inflow
will keep effective shear below 30kt and along with elevated CAPE
peaking around 500 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

On Thursday morning southwest flow aloft remains in place with a
plume of steep mid level lapse rates spreading eastward over the
plains. Models are hinting at convection somewhere over western and
central KS early Thursday morning. This complex could linger during
the late morning hours as it most likely weakens. The southwest flow
aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to
upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Cape during the day Thursday
could range between 2500-3500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is less
impressive, and should not support any organized severe convection.
This type of environment could poss a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Most of models develop convection driven by weak
mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus
is not obvious at this point. If convection the previous night
leaves an outflow boundary around it could be the focus if it
doesn`t mix out. There could be a break Thursday night before the
next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage. This
front will be driven by a shortwave that tracks over the northern
plains and upper Midwest. There are a few timing issues among the
models, but consensus is that the front slides through the area
Friday night. Several shortwaves appear to progress over the
region during the day Friday possibly supporting storms out ahead
of the front in the warm sector. Instability will continue to be
modest although deep layer shear again is not impressive. With the
front south of the area by this weekend drier air and cooler
temperatures could make for pleasant conditions with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday morning could be chilly with low
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The region
will then have time to dry out as the pattern begins to relax
through mid week. A mid level ridge builds into the southern
Rockies/plains, and high temperatures rebound back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

Will continue with VFR forecast. Any patches of very shallow MIFG
will mix out quickly this morning. Chances for precipitation
increase in the latter portions of the forecast but confidence in
timing and location remains too low for a mention.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65






000
FXUS63 KGLD 270955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270955
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 21Z OR
SO ANOTHER WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA) MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WAVE AND INCREASING UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE (MAINLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER) FAVOR CHANCE POPS
WEST OF THE STATE LINE AND LIKELY POPS TO THE EAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE AREA FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FOG.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES
50 TO 55 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE FOG CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER OTHERWISE WITH MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA WE SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE. DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS IT APPEARS THAT A WEATHER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA) WILL EMERGE OVER
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. WITH A FEW OF THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY GOOD UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE
HIGH CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE DRIER
AIR AND A QUICK DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MOVES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID
50S TO AROUND 60 ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY CONTINUING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
MODELS HAVING TIMING ISSUES BRINGING THE TROUGH/BETTER MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA SO FOR NOW WONT GET TOO
EXCITED IN WHEN/IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALSO DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING WHICH MAKES FOR AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST. HAVE GONE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE HILL CITY
AREA. THIS IS FROM A BLEND OF 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BETTER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS THE PAST WEEK OR SO. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS NEAR 12KTS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 25-30KTS FROM 17Z-23Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-05Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH 06Z OR SO WITH STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AFTER
06Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AT
TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND GUST 15-20KTS FROM 17Z-00Z
DECREASING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
TERMINAL FROM 23Z-07Z WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS63 KTOP 270857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one
minor wave working its way east into Colorado. Convection continues
to meander east out of eastern Colorado but appears to be on a slow
weakening trend. Weak surface high was centered over southwest
Nebraska with modest south winds to its southwest giving minor aid
to the SW KS precip. Still some mid cloud in the area with nearby
radars showing some lower level mixing behind the old system. Hard
to rule out patchy fog with the ground obviously wet and will
monitor.

South to southeast winds slowly return today, and with increasing
deep layer moisture, the upstream convection could maintain itself
into the local area late this morning into the early afternoon, but
it will likely outrun support by mid afternoon so have precip
mention limited to western locations today. The next upper wave
meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for
convection to re-fire there this afternoon. Overnight 850mb winds
continue from the south but only reach around 20kt, but will likely
be enough to maintain convection into central and eastern Kansas
tonight as PW values reach 1.5". Have kept a mid-range PoP at this
point with uncertainties on location and coverage. The modest inflow
will keep effective shear below 30kt and along with elevated CAPE
peaking around 500 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

On Thursday morning southwest flow aloft remains in place with a
plume of steep mid level lapse rates spreading eastward over the
plains. Models are hinting at convection somewhere over western and
central KS early Thursday morning. This complex could linger during
the late morning hours as it most likely weakens. The southwest flow
aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to
upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Cape during the day Thursday
could range between 2500-3500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is less
impressive, and should not support any organized severe convection.
This type of environment could poss a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Most of models develop convection driven by weak
mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus
is not obvious at this point. If convection the previous night
leaves an outflow boundary around it could be the focus if it
doesn`t mix out. There could be a break Thursday night before the
next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage. This
front will be driven by a shortwave that tracks over the northern
plains and upper Midwest. There are a few timing issues among the
models, but consensus is that the front slides through the area
Friday night. Several shortwaves appear to progress over the
region during the day Friday possibly supporting storms out ahead
of the front in the warm sector. Instability will continue to be
modest although deep layer shear again is not impressive. With the
front south of the area by this weekend drier air and cooler
temperatures could make for pleasant conditions with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday morning could be chilly with low
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The region
will then have time to dry out as the pattern begins to relax
through mid week. A mid level ridge builds into the southern
Rockies/plains, and high temperatures rebound back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Models hint at a weak wave coming out across central KS Wednesday
afternoon as moisture returns northwest into the high plains.
Forcing looks to be on the weak side and surface features to focus
convection are ill defined. So there may be convection by
Wednesday afternoon, but predictability is to low to include a
mention of convection in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the morning hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one
minor wave working its way east into Colorado. Convection continues
to meander east out of eastern Colorado but appears to be on a slow
weakening trend. Weak surface high was centered over southwest
Nebraska with modest south winds to its southwest giving minor aid
to the SW KS precip. Still some mid cloud in the area with nearby
radars showing some lower level mixing behind the old system. Hard
to rule out patchy fog with the ground obviously wet and will
monitor.

South to southeast winds slowly return today, and with increasing
deep layer moisture, the upstream convection could maintain itself
into the local area late this morning into the early afternoon, but
it will likely outrun support by mid afternoon so have precip
mention limited to western locations today. The next upper wave
meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for
convection to re-fire there this afternoon. Overnight 850mb winds
continue from the south but only reach around 20kt, but will likely
be enough to maintain convection into central and eastern Kansas
tonight as PW values reach 1.5". Have kept a mid-range PoP at this
point with uncertainties on location and coverage. The modest inflow
will keep effective shear below 30kt and along with elevated CAPE
peaking around 500 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

On Thursday morning southwest flow aloft remains in place with a
plume of steep mid level lapse rates spreading eastward over the
plains. Models are hinting at convection somewhere over western and
central KS early Thursday morning. This complex could linger during
the late morning hours as it most likely weakens. The southwest flow
aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to
upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Cape during the day Thursday
could range between 2500-3500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is less
impressive, and should not support any organized severe convection.
This type of environment could poss a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Most of models develop convection driven by weak
mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus
is not obvious at this point. If convection the previous night
leaves an outflow boundary around it could be the focus if it
doesn`t mix out. There could be a break Thursday night before the
next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage. This
front will be driven by a shortwave that tracks over the northern
plains and upper Midwest. There are a few timing issues among the
models, but consensus is that the front slides through the area
Friday night. Several shortwaves appear to progress over the
region during the day Friday possibly supporting storms out ahead
of the front in the warm sector. Instability will continue to be
modest although deep layer shear again is not impressive. With the
front south of the area by this weekend drier air and cooler
temperatures could make for pleasant conditions with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday morning could be chilly with low
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The region
will then have time to dry out as the pattern begins to relax
through mid week. A mid level ridge builds into the southern
Rockies/plains, and high temperatures rebound back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Models hint at a weak wave coming out across central KS Wednesday
afternoon as moisture returns northwest into the high plains.
Forcing looks to be on the weak side and surface features to focus
convection are ill defined. So there may be convection by
Wednesday afternoon, but predictability is to low to include a
mention of convection in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the morning hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one
minor wave working its way east into Colorado. Convection continues
to meander east out of eastern Colorado but appears to be on a slow
weakening trend. Weak surface high was centered over southwest
Nebraska with modest south winds to its southwest giving minor aid
to the SW KS precip. Still some mid cloud in the area with nearby
radars showing some lower level mixing behind the old system. Hard
to rule out patchy fog with the ground obviously wet and will
monitor.

South to southeast winds slowly return today, and with increasing
deep layer moisture, the upstream convection could maintain itself
into the local area late this morning into the early afternoon, but
it will likely outrun support by mid afternoon so have precip
mention limited to western locations today. The next upper wave
meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for
convection to re-fire there this afternoon. Overnight 850mb winds
continue from the south but only reach around 20kt, but will likely
be enough to maintain convection into central and eastern Kansas
tonight as PW values reach 1.5". Have kept a mid-range PoP at this
point with uncertainties on location and coverage. The modest inflow
will keep effective shear below 30kt and along with elevated CAPE
peaking around 500 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

On Thursday morning southwest flow aloft remains in place with a
plume of steep mid level lapse rates spreading eastward over the
plains. Models are hinting at convection somewhere over western and
central KS early Thursday morning. This complex could linger during
the late morning hours as it most likely weakens. The southwest flow
aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to
upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Cape during the day Thursday
could range between 2500-3500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is less
impressive, and should not support any organized severe convection.
This type of environment could poss a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Most of models develop convection driven by weak
mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus
is not obvious at this point. If convection the previous night
leaves an outflow boundary around it could be the focus if it
doesn`t mix out. There could be a break Thursday night before the
next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage. This
front will be driven by a shortwave that tracks over the northern
plains and upper Midwest. There are a few timing issues among the
models, but consensus is that the front slides through the area
Friday night. Several shortwaves appear to progress over the
region during the day Friday possibly supporting storms out ahead
of the front in the warm sector. Instability will continue to be
modest although deep layer shear again is not impressive. With the
front south of the area by this weekend drier air and cooler
temperatures could make for pleasant conditions with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday morning could be chilly with low
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The region
will then have time to dry out as the pattern begins to relax
through mid week. A mid level ridge builds into the southern
Rockies/plains, and high temperatures rebound back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Models hint at a weak wave coming out across central KS Wednesday
afternoon as moisture returns northwest into the high plains.
Forcing looks to be on the weak side and surface features to focus
convection are ill defined. So there may be convection by
Wednesday afternoon, but predictability is to low to include a
mention of convection in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the morning hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 270857
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
357 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The old upper trough axis was into Missouri at 08Z with at least one
minor wave working its way east into Colorado. Convection continues
to meander east out of eastern Colorado but appears to be on a slow
weakening trend. Weak surface high was centered over southwest
Nebraska with modest south winds to its southwest giving minor aid
to the SW KS precip. Still some mid cloud in the area with nearby
radars showing some lower level mixing behind the old system. Hard
to rule out patchy fog with the ground obviously wet and will
monitor.

South to southeast winds slowly return today, and with increasing
deep layer moisture, the upstream convection could maintain itself
into the local area late this morning into the early afternoon, but
it will likely outrun support by mid afternoon so have precip
mention limited to western locations today. The next upper wave
meets with the increasing moisture along the High Plains for
convection to re-fire there this afternoon. Overnight 850mb winds
continue from the south but only reach around 20kt, but will likely
be enough to maintain convection into central and eastern Kansas
tonight as PW values reach 1.5". Have kept a mid-range PoP at this
point with uncertainties on location and coverage. The modest inflow
will keep effective shear below 30kt and along with elevated CAPE
peaking around 500 J/kg, severe weather is not anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

On Thursday morning southwest flow aloft remains in place with a
plume of steep mid level lapse rates spreading eastward over the
plains. Models are hinting at convection somewhere over western and
central KS early Thursday morning. This complex could linger during
the late morning hours as it most likely weakens. The southwest flow
aloft also supports the lee trough and return flow bringing mid to
upper 60 dew points back to eastern KS. Cape during the day Thursday
could range between 2500-3500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is less
impressive, and should not support any organized severe convection.
This type of environment could poss a marginal risk for large hail
and damaging winds. Most of models develop convection driven by weak
mid level impulses and the lack of CIN, although the low level focus
is not obvious at this point. If convection the previous night
leaves an outflow boundary around it could be the focus if it
doesn`t mix out. There could be a break Thursday night before the
next round of precip arrives along with a cold front passage. This
front will be driven by a shortwave that tracks over the northern
plains and upper Midwest. There are a few timing issues among the
models, but consensus is that the front slides through the area
Friday night. Several shortwaves appear to progress over the
region during the day Friday possibly supporting storms out ahead
of the front in the warm sector. Instability will continue to be
modest although deep layer shear again is not impressive. With the
front south of the area by this weekend drier air and cooler
temperatures could make for pleasant conditions with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday morning could be chilly with low
temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. The region
will then have time to dry out as the pattern begins to relax
through mid week. A mid level ridge builds into the southern
Rockies/plains, and high temperatures rebound back to the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Models hint at a weak wave coming out across central KS Wednesday
afternoon as moisture returns northwest into the high plains.
Forcing looks to be on the weak side and surface features to focus
convection are ill defined. So there may be convection by
Wednesday afternoon, but predictability is to low to include a
mention of convection in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the morning hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KICT 270838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STORMS OVER NORTHERN OK LATE THIS EVE...APPEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE...AND MODEST 850
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE INFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCLUDE
VCTS AT CNU AFTER 08Z.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES PUSH EAST OFF OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 270838
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
338 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STORMS OVER NORTHERN OK LATE THIS EVE...APPEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE...AND MODEST 850
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE INFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCLUDE
VCTS AT CNU AFTER 08Z.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES PUSH EAST OFF OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  20  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  40  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  30  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  20  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  20  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270838
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY SETTING UP A DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK
UP INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE MOISTURE REACHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AFFECTING
INSTABILITY PRESENT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN
THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, INCLUDING A 30 TO 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER 70S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WETTER GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A DECAYING MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS AS A RESULT, POPS WERE MAINTAINED,
INCREASED WITH HEAVY RAIN AS A POTENTIAL WX IMPACT. THE EC MOS WAS
USED FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAD SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS, WHICH IS LIKELY IF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND
PART OR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME TYPE OF A REPEAT EVENT IS PROBABLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OBVIOUSLY
CANNOT BE KNOW AT THIS TIME. ANY WEAK LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTION WITH
THE VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL EXIST SHOULD INDUCE
CONVECTION.

A SURFACE HIGH ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCES  THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY,
BRINGING A MARKED DROP IN SURFACE DEW POINTS, AND RESULTANT LOWER
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS WELL AS MUCH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS RAMP UP THE
DAILY HIGHS THROUGH THE 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  62  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
GCK  82  60  78  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  60  80  56 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  85  61  81  60 /  40  60  40  50
HYS  80  63  77  60 /  60  70  50  60
P28  82  64  80  65 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270813
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MAY BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND THE LOWER 80S FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.  WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY SETTING UP A DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK
UP INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE MOISTURE REACHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AFFECTING
INSTABILITY PRESENT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN
THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, INCLUDING A 30 TO 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER 70S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WETTER GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  62  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
GCK  82  60  78  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  60  80  56 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  85  61  81  60 /  40  60  40  50
HYS  80  63  77  60 /  60  70  50  60
P28  82  64  80  65 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY SETTING UP A DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK
UP INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE MOISTURE REACHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AFFECTING
INSTABILITY PRESENT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN
THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, INCLUDING A 30 TO 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER 70S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WETTER GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  62  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
GCK  82  60  78  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  60  80  56 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  85  61  81  60 /  40  60  40  50
HYS  80  63  77  60 /  60  70  50  60
P28  82  64  80  65 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY SETTING UP A DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK
UP INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE MOISTURE REACHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AFFECTING
INSTABILITY PRESENT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN
THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, INCLUDING A 30 TO 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER 70S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WETTER GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  62  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
GCK  82  60  78  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  60  80  56 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  85  61  81  60 /  40  60  40  50
HYS  80  63  77  60 /  60  70  50  60
P28  82  64  80  65 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KDDC 270735
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
235 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY SETTING UP A DIFLUENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO
EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST OUT OF NORTHERN
KANSAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE, A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING BACK NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK
UP INTO THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE
60S(F) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOW
FAR NORTHWEST THE MOISTURE REACHES REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AFFECTING
INSTABILITY PRESENT. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPPING WEAKENS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. EVEN
THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK AS MENTIONED EARLIER, FAVORABLE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, INCLUDING A 30 TO 40KT 0-6KM SHEAR,
SUGGESTS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY AS A PREVAILING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DRAWS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES UP AROUND 20C ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 25C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP
INTO THE 80S(F) THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW UPPER 70S(F) STILL
POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES DEPENDING ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
WETTER GROUND FROM RECENT RAINS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S(F) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  82  62  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
GCK  82  60  78  58 /  50  60  40  50
EHA  85  60  80  56 /  40  50  30  30
LBL  85  61  81  60 /  40  60  40  50
HYS  80  63  77  60 /  60  70  50  60
P28  82  64  80  65 /  60  70  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270539
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP. NEAR-TERM
AVIATION THREAT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THAT DEVELOPED OVER KGLD
ACCORDING TO VAD WIND PROFILE. PLACED LLWS INTO TAF...CONTINUING
UNTIL SUNRISE. LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR LLWS
THREAT AT KMCK. SHOWERS/STORMS BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AROUND KMCK. CONFLICTING SIGNALS REMAIN ON DEVELOPMENT
NEAR KGLD WITH SOME GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT TO THE
WEST...SOME TO THE EAST. WITH THAT...CONTINUED VCTS MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN +TSRA REACHING KGLD INCREASES. DID INCLUDE A TEMPO
GROUP AT KMCK FOR LOWERED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CLOUDS WITH STORMS
AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ASHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  79  62  77 /  70  60  50  50
GCK  60  80  60  76 /  60  40  50  50
EHA  60  81  57  76 /  50  30  40  40
LBL  61  81  61  78 /  60  60  50  40
HYS  63  79  62  76 /  70  60  60  60
P28  64  79  64  77 /  70  60  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ASHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  79  62  77 /  70  60  50  50
GCK  60  80  60  76 /  60  40  50  50
EHA  60  81  57  76 /  50  30  40  40
LBL  61  81  61  78 /  60  60  50  40
HYS  63  79  62  76 /  70  60  60  60
P28  64  79  64  77 /  70  60  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ASHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  79  62  77 /  70  60  50  50
GCK  60  80  60  76 /  60  40  50  50
EHA  60  81  57  76 /  50  30  40  40
LBL  61  81  61  78 /  60  60  50  40
HYS  63  79  62  76 /  70  60  60  60
P28  64  79  64  77 /  70  60  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ASHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  79  62  77 /  70  60  50  50
GCK  60  80  60  76 /  60  40  50  50
EHA  60  81  57  76 /  50  30  40  40
LBL  61  81  61  78 /  60  60  50  40
HYS  63  79  62  76 /  70  60  60  60
P28  64  79  64  77 /  70  60  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270527
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ASHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE WITHIN A LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES
WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KDDC. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE INCREASING UP
TO AROUND 15 TO 25KT MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  79  62  77 /  70  60  50  50
GCK  60  80  60  76 /  60  40  50  50
EHA  60  81  57  76 /  50  30  40  40
LBL  61  81  61  78 /  60  60  50  40
HYS  63  79  62  76 /  70  60  60  60
P28  64  79  64  77 /  70  60  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...JJOHNSON




000
FXUS63 KTOP 270433
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1133 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Models hint at a weak wave coming out across central KS Wednesday
afternoon as moisture returns northwest into the high plains.
Forcing looks to be on the weak side and surface features to focus
convection are ill defined. So there may be convection by
Wednesday afternoon, but predictability is to low to include a
mention of convection in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the morning hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters







000
FXUS63 KTOP 270433
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1133 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Models hint at a weak wave coming out across central KS Wednesday
afternoon as moisture returns northwest into the high plains.
Forcing looks to be on the weak side and surface features to focus
convection are ill defined. So there may be convection by
Wednesday afternoon, but predictability is to low to include a
mention of convection in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the morning hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters








000
FXUS63 KICT 270421
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STORMS OVER NORTHERN OK LATE THIS EVE...APPEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE...AND MODEST 850
SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE INFLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL INCLUDE
VCTS AT CNU AFTER 08Z.

NEXT DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS STORM COMPLEXES PUSH EAST OFF OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  50  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  60  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  50  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  50  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  60  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  60  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  50  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270410
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ASHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  10  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  20  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  50  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  20  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  10  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 270410
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1110 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING ASHORE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA WHILE A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A NEAR STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  10  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  20  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  50  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  20  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  10  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KGLD 270359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 270359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO EAST
COLORADO AND POSSIBLY WESTERN KANSAS. OVERALL DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY WANES AND CIN RISES. OTHER
THAN THAT...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 262346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOST RECENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH REMAINS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY
OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS WITH PWAT READINGS
APPROACHING 1.25" TO 1.50" BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 262346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOST RECENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH REMAINS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY
OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS WITH PWAT READINGS
APPROACHING 1.25" TO 1.50" BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 262346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOST RECENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH REMAINS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY
OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS WITH PWAT READINGS
APPROACHING 1.25" TO 1.50" BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KGLD 262346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MOST RECENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH REMAINS ON TRACK. HOWEVER...SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE VICINITY
OF A RETREATING WARM FRONT. STORMS THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION. ALSO INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS WITH PWAT READINGS
APPROACHING 1.25" TO 1.50" BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION JUST
OUTSIDE KGLD VICINITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH...SLIDING SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING...MOST LIKELY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A LITTLE
UNSURE OF THIS SCENARIO SO OMITTED FROM TAF. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
KMCK WILL OBSERVE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR KGLD DEPEND ON
DRYLINE ADVANCEMENT FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW...MENTIONED VCTS AT
KGLD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG/STRATUS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS IN...HOWEVER THIS THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH



000
FXUS63 KDDC 262345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 262345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 262345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 262345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KDDC 262345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



000
FXUS63 KDDC 262345
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT FOG WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NAM12 MODEL IS SHOWING, AS WE BELIEVE THAT THE
RICHEST GULF MOISTURE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH, AND THAT MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE IN FULL FORCE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL GO WITH SOME 3SM BR, THOUGH, AT DDC AND GCK, BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE. LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, HOWEVER
THIS IS AT THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON THE INCLUSION OF ANY CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




000
FXUS63 KICT 262327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
KS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 262327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
KS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 262327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
KS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 262327
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
KS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KTOP 262308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

23Z surface OBS show a weak boundary from KICT to KUKL to KOJC.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery suggest a weak shortwave is passing
through northeast and south central KS now. Since the focus for
convection is already south of the terminals and instability is
likely to fade with cooling surface temps, think a dry VFR
forecast is likely to prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 262308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

23Z surface OBS show a weak boundary from KICT to KUKL to KOJC.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery suggest a weak shortwave is passing
through northeast and south central KS now. Since the focus for
convection is already south of the terminals and instability is
likely to fade with cooling surface temps, think a dry VFR
forecast is likely to prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 262308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

23Z surface OBS show a weak boundary from KICT to KUKL to KOJC.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery suggest a weak shortwave is passing
through northeast and south central KS now. Since the focus for
convection is already south of the terminals and instability is
likely to fade with cooling surface temps, think a dry VFR
forecast is likely to prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 262308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

23Z surface OBS show a weak boundary from KICT to KUKL to KOJC.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery suggest a weak shortwave is passing
through northeast and south central KS now. Since the focus for
convection is already south of the terminals and instability is
likely to fade with cooling surface temps, think a dry VFR
forecast is likely to prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 262308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

23Z surface OBS show a weak boundary from KICT to KUKL to KOJC.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery suggest a weak shortwave is passing
through northeast and south central KS now. Since the focus for
convection is already south of the terminals and instability is
likely to fade with cooling surface temps, think a dry VFR
forecast is likely to prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 262308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

23Z surface OBS show a weak boundary from KICT to KUKL to KOJC.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery suggest a weak shortwave is passing
through northeast and south central KS now. Since the focus for
convection is already south of the terminals and instability is
likely to fade with cooling surface temps, think a dry VFR
forecast is likely to prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 262308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

23Z surface OBS show a weak boundary from KICT to KUKL to KOJC.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery suggest a weak shortwave is passing
through northeast and south central KS now. Since the focus for
convection is already south of the terminals and instability is
likely to fade with cooling surface temps, think a dry VFR
forecast is likely to prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KTOP 262308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19Z sfc map shows low pressure across SW WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far NW MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 608 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

23Z surface OBS show a weak boundary from KICT to KUKL to KOJC.
Meanwhile water vapor imagery suggest a weak shortwave is passing
through northeast and south central KS now. Since the focus for
convection is already south of the terminals and instability is
likely to fade with cooling surface temps, think a dry VFR
forecast is likely to prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Wolters






000
FXUS63 KDDC 262047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 262047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 262047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 262047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 262047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 262047
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A RATHER STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLOWLY PROGRESSES
TOWARD WESTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE, AND SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS; BUT
CLIMATOLOGY SAYS THAT LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME IS THE WETTEST FROM NOW ON THROUGH THE SUMMER, WITH 8 AM TO
3 PM TIME FRAME THE QUIETEST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
SOME OF THE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAPE
VALUES WILL BE HIGHEST AT THAT TIME. AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S, WITH LOWS NEAR 50 BY SUNDAY MORNING.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LEE TROUGHING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND A WARMING TREND. ALL OF THE RECENT RAIN DURING MAY AND
RESULTANT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE GET DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS OUGHT TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY
MONDAY AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING, ALONG WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE. IT IS TOO EARLY TOO TELL WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL BE AS
FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN KANSAS, BUT CLIMATOLOGY CERTAINLY FAVORS
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE RISING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  82  63  79 /  20  60  60  60
GCK  55  81  61  80 /  10  50  60  40
EHA  54  81  61  81 /  20  30  50  30
LBL  57  82  62  81 /  10  50  60  60
HYS  56  81  64  79 /  10  50  70  60
P28  60  82  65  79 /  20  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KTOP 262046
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
346 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Fcst focus is on precip chcs this evening and tomorrow.

19z sfc map shows low pressure across sw WI with a cold front
extending southwest into KS.  Another weak low center appeared to be
located across far nw MO which seems to be a reflection of a couple
of waves now moving across NE/KS border. Those are acting to produce
weak convergence across the area and along with heating and a weak
boundary I suspect we could see isolated convection late this
afternoon with some gusty winds given around 1000j/kg of cape and
unidirectional wind profile.  Additional isolated/sct convection
could also occur near the boundary later this evening as lift from
waves now across southern/western KS generate more storms across
southern KS.  As a result, we will keep low chc pops across the
south through midnight for this scenario.

Weds should be dry for the most part as weak ridging moves across
the area. The sfc front should mix back to the north bringing
dewpoints in the 60s with it by midday however it appears that the
best moisture convergence and lift will be focused across western KS
by late in the day as another upper wave emerges out of the central
Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

From the period Wednesday night through Saturday morning, the
pattern continues to favor rounds of thunderstorms with warm and
humid conditions.

By Wednesday evening, the models are in good agreement concerning
the overall situation with west southwest flow aloft and surface
low pressure over the high plains of southeast Colorado and a
surface warm front into the southern plains. Thunderstorms should
develop in the upslope region during the afternoon and then move
across the plains Wednesday night. Thunderstorms should be
supported by a decent low-level jet and and moisture. It is
unclear how this will progress and at this point will forecast a
mid range POP for this potential.

The upper air pattern on Thursday and Friday is very busy. The upper
low initially over the pacific northwest drifts southeast into the
central plains by Friday evening. In the southern stream, pieces
of shortwave energy eject northeast ahead of upper low across the
southern and central plains. The airmass over eastern Kansas will
be very moist by Thursday with precipitable water values of around
1.5 inches according to both the 12 UTC GFS/NAM. With deep
moisture in place and instability, expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop with available forcing during this
period. The storms should be efficient precipitation generators
given the moisture plume.

To the north in the northern stream, a shortwave moving across the
lakes should drag a cold front south across the northern plains
and into Nebraska by Friday morning. The shortwave energy moving
into the central plains moves through Friday and Friday night and
dragging the cold front through eastern Kansas. After another
round showers and storms with this system, we should dry-out for
the the remainder of the forecast period. The combination of drier
air in association with the surface ridge and building 500 MB
heights supports a generally dry forecast which will be a welcome
relief.

Expect below normal temperatures after the frontal passage and then
rebounding by the end of the extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Expect VFR conds to prevail through the period. Only issue may be
sct -shra or isolated tsra which is possible just about anywhere
through 06z given the unstable atmosphere and proximity of the
upper system and weak boundary. Simply don`t think coverage will
be sufficient to warrant any more than vcsh at this point.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Omitt
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Omitt






000
FXUS63 KICT 262039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KICT
AND KCNU TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY LATE
TONIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS WELL IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KGLD 262033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INCREASING
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER UTAH AND ARIZONA MOVES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  ALREADY HIGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.  WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...IT LOOKS LIKE A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WITH STRONG
INSTABILITIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...A POSSIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY
FOCUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT THOUGHT IS CONVECTION
MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES HIGHLIGHTED
BY 0.9 TO 1.2 INCH PWATS AND STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...AND TD VALUES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F AS GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTH WITH. SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS IN SW
FLOW HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING VORTICITY IN THE 700-500MB SURFACES
WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NAME THETA
SURFACES SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WED EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH COULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW A QUICKER
TRANSITION EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE FORMATION OF
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NW
KANSAS...AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SE MOISTURE FEED ALONG WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH WE COULD SEE TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WE COULD SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW GOOD CAPE PROFILES...THOUGH NAM IS PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE...LIKELY DUE TO HIGHER ADVERTISED TD VALUES IN THE MID
60S ACROSS OUR EAST (MIGHT BE OVERDONE THIS FAR NORTH). STRONG
UPDRAFTS SEEM LIKELY. THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING SHEER WITH BULK
SHEER GENERALLY 25-35KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS. THERE ARE GOOD VEERING PROFILES ESPECIALLY ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE...AND THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
THROUGH THE EVENING...DESPITE HELICITY VALUES BEING LESS THAN IDEAL.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND CURRENT TRACK OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS APPEAR TO SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA ALONG WITH BETTER PRECIP
SIGNAL. THIS CHANGES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT AS GOOD
MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT INITIATION
PARTICULARLY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THE ADVERTISED CAPE VALUES
STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER SHEER PROFILES ARE LESS
FAVORABLE THAN WEDNESDAY...AND CONFIDENCES IS LOWER THAT WE WOULD
SEE AS ORGANIZED OF A SEVERE THREAT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TD AND PWAT VALUES. BY SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS WITH LARGER SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS ECMWF IS
SLOWEST TO END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP. FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG
WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP COMPLICATES TEMP FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE.
I COULD SEE HIGHS BE IN THE 60S COMPARED TO 70S...THOUGH ONLY GEM IS
SHOWING HIGHS THIS LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TRANSITION ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 RETURNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BACK OVER THE PLAINS AND GULF MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH IN THE NW US.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261811
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1211 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEST...50-55
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THEN OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE BOLDEST...THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY SUPPORTING SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS FEATURE ALSO MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE LESS ROBUST IN QUICKLY WARMING COMPARED TO
THE GFS. BLENDING THE TWO PLUS BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN WYOMING BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRIDAY THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MY THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
PER 850-500MB RH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS MAY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART




000
FXUS63 KGLD 261811
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1211 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...MODELS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT/FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WEST...50-55
EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHTS WEATHER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z THEN OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION...WITH
THE NAM BEING THE BOLDEST...THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2-1/4 OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY SUPPORTING SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS. THIS FEATURE ALSO MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF/NAM 850MB
TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE LESS ROBUST IN QUICKLY WARMING COMPARED TO
THE GFS. BLENDING THE TWO PLUS BETTER PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED
GRIDS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN WYOMING BY THE END OF THE DAY THEN
SLOWLY INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING BY FRIDAY MORNING. A PIECE OF ENERGY
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z FRIDAY THEN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MY THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
PER 850-500MB RH FROM THE GFS/ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE EXTREME WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR COLORADO COUNTIES AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. THIS MAY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...MID 50S TO LOW 60S EAST OF
THE STATE LINE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE TRI STATE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH A LACK OF
ANY STRONG JET ACTIVITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES THROUGH THE PROFILE LOOK
TO BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AREA WIDE...SO STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...SINCE A SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD ALREADY BE PAST THE AREA WITH A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKY...NOT SURE THAT CAPE VALUES ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED INTO BY STORMS.
AT ANY RATE...GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT SATURATED UPPER PROFILES
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.90 AND 1.20 INCHES...WHICH
IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK
FAIRLY SATURATED AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP AS FRIDAY...AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE PROFILE.  THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTAIN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BASE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY.  WITH DRY AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



000
FXUS63 KDDC 261755
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  79  63 /  20  20  60  60
GCK  77  55  80  61 /  20  10  50  60
EHA  77  54  81  61 /  10  20  30  50
LBL  78  57  82  62 /  20  10  50  60
HYS  78  56  79  64 /  10  10  50  70
P28  80  60  80  65 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261755
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  79  63 /  20  20  60  60
GCK  77  55  80  61 /  20  10  50  60
EHA  77  54  81  61 /  10  20  30  50
LBL  78  57  82  62 /  20  10  50  60
HYS  78  56  79  64 /  10  10  50  70
P28  80  60  80  65 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN



000
FXUS63 KDDC 261755
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  79  63 /  20  20  60  60
GCK  77  55  80  61 /  20  10  50  60
EHA  77  54  81  61 /  10  20  30  50
LBL  78  57  82  62 /  20  10  50  60
HYS  78  56  79  64 /  10  10  50  70
P28  80  60  80  65 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KICT 261727
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS TO
MOVE EASTWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS HAS VEERED
OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME DRYING/LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS OCCURRED
IN THE VEERED FLOW THIS MORNING...SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK. OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND COULD RENEW MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS IN SOME AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KICT
AND KCNU TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY LATE
TONIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS WELL IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  20  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  20  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261727
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS TO
MOVE EASTWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS HAS VEERED
OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME DRYING/LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS OCCURRED
IN THE VEERED FLOW THIS MORNING...SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK. OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND COULD RENEW MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS IN SOME AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE KICT
AND KCNU TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY LATE
TONIGHT FROM EAST CENTRAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS
AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AS WELL IN VICINITY
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  30  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  20  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  20  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KTOP 261713 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Precipitation persists over much of the area, though becoming
steadily more scattered in nature and generally rather low rates.
Appears more vigorous convection in western locations is long
upper trough axis, with whole upper system good northeast progress
through eastern Kansas with warming cloud tops.

Have a hard time ruling out precip for much of today and tonight.
Short-range models seem a bit too fast with main deformation
precip`s exit this morning, with latest HRRR runs similar in
isolated to scattered convection making its way southeast around
the low into northern areas in the late morning to early
afternoon. Still seeing best lower-level forcing in southern areas
late today into tonight were somewhat better convergence exists.
There is also decent larger-scale model similarity in another wave
rotating (perhaps taking shape in western Nebraska early this
morning) passing through over this same period, although heights
are still rising. Moisture through the column not up to recent
levels, but dewpoints into the lower 60s still support some
instability developing in peak heating. Fairly unidirectional and
modest wind speeds keep severe storm concerns low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Surface high pressure moves into the Central Plains on Wednesday,
with the frontal boundary slowing over southern Kansas under
generally west southwest upper flow. Think more stable surface air
plus mid level ridging will keep northern areas dry on Wednesday
but could see some rumbles south depending on how far south the
front progresses. Next in a series of shortwave trofs moves over
eastern Kansas overnight into Thursday morning, and draws rain
chances back over our area. Have continued chances into Thursday,
although features driving rain chances are more mesoscale in
nature and timing will likely need adjustment.

Better model agreement on a slightly larger scale shortwave
feature lifting out of the southwest US and across eastern Kansas
for Friday, and will keep higher rain chances as a result. Front
slides southeast across the area through early Saturday morning,
cooling things down and bringing decreasing rain chances through
Sunday from northwest to southeast. If pattern persists, may be
able to end chances sooner. High temperatures Wednesday through
Friday are forecast in the upper 70s near 80, falling into the 60s
for the weekend behind the front, with lows in the 60s then
falling to the 50s late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Expect VFR conds to prevail through the period. Only issue may be
sct -shra or isolated tsra which is possible just about anywhere
through 06z given the unstable atmosphere and proximity of the
upper system and weak boundary. Simply don`t think coverage will
be sufficient to warrant any more than vcsh at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Omitt






000
FXUS63 KTOP 261713 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Precipitation persists over much of the area, though becoming
steadily more scattered in nature and generally rather low rates.
Appears more vigorous convection in western locations is long
upper trough axis, with whole upper system good northeast progress
through eastern Kansas with warming cloud tops.

Have a hard time ruling out precip for much of today and tonight.
Short-range models seem a bit too fast with main deformation
precip`s exit this morning, with latest HRRR runs similar in
isolated to scattered convection making its way southeast around
the low into northern areas in the late morning to early
afternoon. Still seeing best lower-level forcing in southern areas
late today into tonight were somewhat better convergence exists.
There is also decent larger-scale model similarity in another wave
rotating (perhaps taking shape in western Nebraska early this
morning) passing through over this same period, although heights
are still rising. Moisture through the column not up to recent
levels, but dewpoints into the lower 60s still support some
instability developing in peak heating. Fairly unidirectional and
modest wind speeds keep severe storm concerns low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Surface high pressure moves into the Central Plains on Wednesday,
with the frontal boundary slowing over southern Kansas under
generally west southwest upper flow. Think more stable surface air
plus mid level ridging will keep northern areas dry on Wednesday
but could see some rumbles south depending on how far south the
front progresses. Next in a series of shortwave trofs moves over
eastern Kansas overnight into Thursday morning, and draws rain
chances back over our area. Have continued chances into Thursday,
although features driving rain chances are more mesoscale in
nature and timing will likely need adjustment.

Better model agreement on a slightly larger scale shortwave
feature lifting out of the southwest US and across eastern Kansas
for Friday, and will keep higher rain chances as a result. Front
slides southeast across the area through early Saturday morning,
cooling things down and bringing decreasing rain chances through
Sunday from northwest to southeast. If pattern persists, may be
able to end chances sooner. High temperatures Wednesday through
Friday are forecast in the upper 70s near 80, falling into the 60s
for the weekend behind the front, with lows in the 60s then
falling to the 50s late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Expect VFR conds to prevail through the period. Only issue may be
sct -shra or isolated tsra which is possible just about anywhere
through 06z given the unstable atmosphere and proximity of the
upper system and weak boundary. Simply don`t think coverage will
be sufficient to warrant any more than vcsh at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Omitt






000
FXUS63 KTOP 261713 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Precipitation persists over much of the area, though becoming
steadily more scattered in nature and generally rather low rates.
Appears more vigorous convection in western locations is long
upper trough axis, with whole upper system good northeast progress
through eastern Kansas with warming cloud tops.

Have a hard time ruling out precip for much of today and tonight.
Short-range models seem a bit too fast with main deformation
precip`s exit this morning, with latest HRRR runs similar in
isolated to scattered convection making its way southeast around
the low into northern areas in the late morning to early
afternoon. Still seeing best lower-level forcing in southern areas
late today into tonight were somewhat better convergence exists.
There is also decent larger-scale model similarity in another wave
rotating (perhaps taking shape in western Nebraska early this
morning) passing through over this same period, although heights
are still rising. Moisture through the column not up to recent
levels, but dewpoints into the lower 60s still support some
instability developing in peak heating. Fairly unidirectional and
modest wind speeds keep severe storm concerns low.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Surface high pressure moves into the Central Plains on Wednesday,
with the frontal boundary slowing over southern Kansas under
generally west southwest upper flow. Think more stable surface air
plus mid level ridging will keep northern areas dry on Wednesday
but could see some rumbles south depending on how far south the
front progresses. Next in a series of shortwave trofs moves over
eastern Kansas overnight into Thursday morning, and draws rain
chances back over our area. Have continued chances into Thursday,
although features driving rain chances are more mesoscale in
nature and timing will likely need adjustment.

Better model agreement on a slightly larger scale shortwave
feature lifting out of the southwest US and across eastern Kansas
for Friday, and will keep higher rain chances as a result. Front
slides southeast across the area through early Saturday morning,
cooling things down and bringing decreasing rain chances through
Sunday from northwest to southeast. If pattern persists, may be
able to end chances sooner. High temperatures Wednesday through
Friday are forecast in the upper 70s near 80, falling into the 60s
for the weekend behind the front, with lows in the 60s then
falling to the 50s late week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

Expect VFR conds to prevail through the period. Only issue may be
sct -shra or isolated tsra which is possible just about anywhere
through 06z given the unstable atmosphere and proximity of the
upper system and weak boundary. Simply don`t think coverage will
be sufficient to warrant any more than vcsh at this point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Omitt







000
FXUS63 KDDC 261659
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ENOUGH FACTORS PRESENT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING
60F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AS CAPPING WEAKENS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG AS INDICATED BY NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BASED ON VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES, ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F)
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  82  63 /  20  20  50  60
GCK  77  55  82  61 /  10  10  50  50
EHA  77  54  83  61 /  10  10  30  40
LBL  78  57  84  62 /  20  10  40  60
HYS  78  56  80  64 /  10  10  40  60
P28  80  60  82  65 /  30  30  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261659
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ENOUGH FACTORS PRESENT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING
60F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AS CAPPING WEAKENS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG AS INDICATED BY NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BASED ON VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES, ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F)
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  82  63 /  20  20  50  60
GCK  77  55  82  61 /  10  10  50  50
EHA  77  54  83  61 /  10  10  30  40
LBL  78  57  84  62 /  20  10  40  60
HYS  78  56  80  64 /  10  10  40  60
P28  80  60  82  65 /  30  30  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261659
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ENOUGH FACTORS PRESENT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING
60F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AS CAPPING WEAKENS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG AS INDICATED BY NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BASED ON VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES, ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F)
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  82  63 /  20  20  50  60
GCK  77  55  82  61 /  10  10  50  50
EHA  77  54  83  61 /  10  10  30  40
LBL  78  57  84  62 /  20  10  40  60
HYS  78  56  80  64 /  10  10  40  60
P28  80  60  82  65 /  30  30  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261659
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ENOUGH FACTORS PRESENT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING
60F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AS CAPPING WEAKENS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG AS INDICATED BY NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BASED ON VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES, ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F)
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  82  63 /  20  20  50  60
GCK  77  55  82  61 /  10  10  50  50
EHA  77  54  83  61 /  10  10  30  40
LBL  78  57  84  62 /  20  10  40  60
HYS  78  56  80  64 /  10  10  40  60
P28  80  60  82  65 /  30  30  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KDDC 261659
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY GIVING WAY TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ENOUGH FACTORS PRESENT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO UP INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING
60F ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AS CAPPING WEAKENS. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG AS INDICATED BY NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BASED ON VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES, ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED TO THE OVERALL AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 70S(F) FOR THE MOST PART
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S(F)
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  82  63 /  20  20  50  60
GCK  77  55  82  61 /  10  10  50  50
EHA  77  54  83  61 /  10  10  30  40
LBL  78  57  84  62 /  20  10  40  60
HYS  78  56  80  64 /  10  10  40  60
P28  80  60  82  65 /  30  30  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN




000
FXUS63 KICT 261601
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS TO
MOVE EASTWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS HAS VEERED
OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME DRYING/LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS OCCURRED
IN THE VEERED FLOW THIS MORNING...SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK. OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND COULD RENEW MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS IN SOME AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 261601
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT IN THE
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH IS PROGGED BY THE SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS TO
MOVE EASTWARD PRIMARILY ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS HAS VEERED
OUT AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR PEAK HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME DRYING/LOWERING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS OCCURRED
IN THE VEERED FLOW THIS MORNING...SOME RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WILL
YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
WHERE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE PRESENT.
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS UNTIL DARK. OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND COULD RENEW MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS IN SOME AREAS.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KICT 261233
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...LIKELY CLIMAXING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES PHASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING LINGERING LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT
INTO MISSOURI BY MID-MORNING...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM
HI-RES MODELS. AIRMASS IS FAIRLY WORKED-OVER...AND WILL LIKELY
TAKE ALL DAY TO RECOVER...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
INTO AT LEAST MID- AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH...AMIDST WEAK UPPER FORCING APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER AND/OR ORGANIZE INTO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SOME AND BOUNDARY STALLS. OVERALL...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND
WEAK/MODEST INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTH...WHICH
SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR RENEWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS ALLUDED TO BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. LIKE TUESDAY...WEAK FORCING/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A SOMEWHAT DEEPER
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

ALL-IN-ALL...DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER STILL
APPEARS UNLIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE.

GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EAST
OVER MID-AMERICA...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MID/UPPER FLOW
FLATTENING BY MID NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION...AS HIGH
PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. FAR LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY...AND SLIGHTLY MORE CAPPING. CHANCE FOR...AND THE
ABILITY TO TIME THUNDERSTORMS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. EXCEPTION IS KCNU WHERE GRAZING VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY
RESULT IN SOME STORMS THIS EVENING. KCNU ALSO HAD MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AT ISSUANCE...BUT BELIEVE THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED GIVEN
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING
AT BANKFUL OR HIGHER...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADDITIONAL FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN
THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THROUGH MAY 25TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.12
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  61  82  65 /  30  40  30  50
HUTCHINSON      80  58  82  64 /  30  30  30  60
NEWTON          79  59  81  64 /  30  30  30  50
ELDORADO        80  60  81  64 /  30  40  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  61  83  65 /  40  40  30  50
RUSSELL         79  57  82  63 /  10  10  30  60
GREAT BEND      79  57  81  63 /  20  10  30  60
SALINA          79  58  83  64 /  20  20  30  60
MCPHERSON       79  58  82  64 /  20  20  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     81  63  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         81  62  83  65 /  30  40  30  30
IOLA            80  61  82  64 /  30  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    81  62  82  65 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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